宏观 降准降息落地，政策协同加强 ——"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"新闻发布会点评 2025 年 5 月 7 日 宏观研究/事件点评 投资要点： 相关报告： 事件：2025 年 5 月 7 日，国新办举行新闻发布会，介绍"一揽子金融政 策支持稳市场稳预期"有关情况，邀请到的发言人包括中国人民银行行长潘 功胜，金融监管总局局长李云泽，中国证监会主席吴清。会议围绕推动经济 高质量发展、推进对外开放、维护金融市场及房地产市场平稳运行等，在金 融领域部署了一系列具体举措，政策协同性进一步增强。 分析师： 第一，推出一揽子货币政策，降准降息落地。（1）数量型政策包括：降 准 0.5 个百分点，预计将向市场提供长期流动性约 1 万亿元；阶段性将汽车 金融公司、金融租赁公司的存款准备金率从 5%调降为 0%。（2）价格型政策 包括：下调 7 天期逆回购利率 0.1 个百分点，预计将带动贷款市场报价利率 （LPR）同步下行约 0.1 个百分点；降低个人住房公积金贷款利率 0.25 个百 分点。（3）结构型政策包括：下调结构性货币政策工具利率 0.25 个百分点， 包括支农支小再贷款、科技创新和技术改造再贷款、碳减排支持工 ...

2025 年 5 月 7 日 行业研究/行业快报 非银行金融行业近一年市场表现 事件描述： 5 月 7 日，中国人民银行、国家金融监管总局、中国证监会主要负责人， 国新办新闻发布会介绍"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"有关情况。 非银行金融 国新办发布会点评 领先大市-A(维持) 政策精准发力，全面完善资本市场机制 执业登记编码：S0760511050001 邮箱：liuli2@sxzq.com 完善资本市场"引长钱"，提升投资规模和占比。一是完善公募基金收 费管理，同日发布《推动公募基金高质量发展行动方案》，优化主动权益类 基金收费模式，浮动管理费收取，设立清晰的业绩比较基准，明确三年以上 考核权重不低于 80%，将投资者盈亏等指标纳入考核体系。二是扩大保险资 金长期投资试点范围，为市场引入更多增量资金，降低股票投资风险因子， 支持稳定和活跃资本市场。 事件点评： 吸引增量，培育"长钱长投"政策体系。政策进一步落实二十届三中全 会及中央经济工作会议相关会议精神，为资本市场建设指明方向，通过投资 请务必阅读最后股票评级说明和免责声明 1 电话：0351-8686900 资料来源：最闻 相关报告： 【山证非银行 ...

非银行金融行业近一年市场表现 事件描述： 5 月 7 日，中国人民银行、国家金融监管总局、中国证监会主要负责人， 国新办新闻发布会介绍"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"有关情况。 资料来源：最闻 【山证非银行金融】政治局会议定调积 【山证非银行金融】明确五篇大文章指 加大宏观调控力度，出台一揽子货币政策措施。一是降准降息，降低存 款准备金率 0.5 个百分点，预计将向市场提供长期流动性约 1 万亿元；下调 政策利率 0.1个百分点，公开市场7 天期逆回购操作利率从 1.5%调降至 1.4%， 预计将带动贷款市场报价利率（LPR）同步下行约 0.1 个百分点。二是资本 市场支持工具扩容，优化两项支持资本市场的货币政策工具，互换便利和股 票回购增持再贷款两项工具贷款总额度 8000 亿元合并使用，互换便利由首 批 20 家扩大到 40 家，回购增持再贷款期限由 1 年延长到 3 年，自有资金使 用比例由 30%下降到 10%。三是创设科技创新债券风险分担工具，央行提供 低成本再贷款资金，可购买科技创新债券，提供共同担保等多样化的增信措 施，为科技创新企业和股权投资机构发行低成本、长期限科创债券融资提供 支持。 分 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Synchronize with the market - A" for the power equipment and new energy industry [1]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a 19.5% year-on-year increase in national solar power generation from January to March 2025, while prices in the downstream of the industry chain are declining [3]. - The report emphasizes the launch of the first AI-powered exoskeleton robot in China, showcasing advancements in technology within the industry [1][4]. - The report notes that the first quarter of 2025 saw a new installed capacity of 59.71 GW in photovoltaic power generation, with distributed photovoltaic accounting for 60.8% of the total [5]. Summary by Sections Preferred Stocks - The report lists preferred stocks with ratings: - Aishuo Co., Ltd. (600732.SH) - Buy - B - Longi Green Energy (601012.SH) - Buy - B - Flat Glass Group (601865.SH) - Buy - A - Hengdian East Magnetic (002056.SZ) - Buy - A - Sungrow Power Supply (300274.SZ) - Buy - A - Canadian Solar (688472.SH) - Buy - A - Deye Technology (605117.SH) - Buy - A [3]. Price Tracking - The report provides price tracking data: - The average price of dense polysilicon is 40.0 CNY/kg, unchanged from last week, while granular silicon has decreased by 5.3% to 36.0 CNY/kg [6][7]. - The average price of 150um 182mm monocrystalline silicon wafers is 1.15 CNY/piece, unchanged, while 130um 183mm N-type wafers have decreased by 8.7% to 1.05 CNY/piece [7]. - The average price of M10 battery cells is 0.29 CNY/W, down 1.7%, and TOPCon battery cells are priced at 0.27 CNY/W, down 5.3% [8]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies in various sectors: - New technology direction: Aishuo Co., Ltd., Longi Green Energy - Supply-side improvement direction: Flat Glass Group - Overseas layout direction: Hengdian East Magnetic, Sungrow Power Supply, Canadian Solar, Deye Technology [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Synchronize with the market - A" for the power equipment and new energy industry [1][2]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a 19.5% year-on-year increase in solar power generation in the first quarter of 2025, with a notable decline in prices across the solar industry chain [3][5]. - The introduction of AI-powered exoskeleton robots by Zhiyuan Research Institute is noted, showcasing advancements in technology within the industry [1][4]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The solar power generation capacity added in Q1 2025 reached 59.71 GW, with distributed solar accounting for 60.8% of the new capacity [5]. - The report indicates a downward trend in prices for polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and modules due to weak terminal demand and high production levels in April [6][7][8]. Preferred Stocks - The report lists preferred stocks with ratings: - Aishuo Co., Ltd. (600732.SH) - Buy - B - Longi Green Energy (601012.SH) - Buy - B - Fulete (601865.SH) - Buy - A - Hengdian East Magnet (002056.SZ) - Buy - A - Sungrow Power Supply (300274.SZ) - Buy - A - Canadian Solar (688472.SH) - Buy - A - Deyang Co., Ltd. (605117.SH) - Buy - A [3][10]. Price Tracking - Polysilicon prices are reported at 40.0 CNY/kg, with a 5.3% decrease in granular silicon prices to 36.0 CNY/kg [6][7]. - The average price of 182mm monocrystalline silicon wafers remains stable at 1.15 CNY/piece, while N-type wafers have seen a decline of 8.7% [7]. - Battery cell prices have decreased, with M10 cells averaging 0.29 CNY/W, reflecting a 1.7% drop [8]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with new technology directions such as Aishuo Co., Ltd. and Longi Green Energy, as well as those improving supply-side conditions like Fulete [10]. - It also suggests monitoring companies involved in exoskeleton robotics, including Jinggong Technology and Zhenjiang Co., Ltd. [10].

Group 1: Industry Overview - The AI and IoT industry is expected to experience significant growth due to accelerated AI penetration, with the industrial internet's total value in China projected to reach 5.31 trillion yuan by 2025, a year-on-year increase of 6.0% [8] - The AI wearable market is anticipated to grow to $120.7 billion by 2028, with a CAGR of 30.3% over four years [8] - The global AI toy market is expected to reach $35.11 billion by 2030, with an 8-year CAGR exceeding 16% [8] - The Chinese IoT market is projected to reach $326.47 billion by 2028, with a 5-year CAGR of 13.3% [8] Group 2: Company Analysis - Linglong Tire - Linglong Tire reported a revenue of 22.058 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 9.39%, and a net profit of 1.752 billion yuan, up 26.01% [9] - The company plans to invest 8.71 billion yuan in a new facility in Brazil to enhance its global competitiveness, with expected annual revenue of 7.758 billion yuan upon completion [9] - Linglong Tire's production volume reached 89.1223 million tires in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 12.65% [9] Group 3: Company Analysis - Longxin Technology - Longxin Technology's Q1 2025 revenue was 1.09 billion yuan, a 4.52% increase, while net profit decreased by 8.06% [13] - The company is focusing on high-definition display and automotive electronics, with a significant increase in R&D investment [13] - Longxin plans to build a new R&D base in Hefei with an estimated investment of 343 million yuan, expected to enhance its research capabilities [13] Group 4: Company Analysis - Shennong Group - Shennong Group achieved a revenue of 5.584 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 43.51%, and a net profit of 687 million yuan, marking a turnaround from a loss [20] - The company sold 2.2715 million pigs in 2024, a 49.40% increase, with a revenue of 3.798 billion yuan from pig sales [20] - The average cost of pig production in Q1 2025 was approximately 12.4 yuan per kilogram, indicating stable cost management [20] Group 5: Company Analysis - Chaohongji - Chaohongji reported a revenue of 6.518 billion yuan in 2024, a 10.48% increase, but a net profit decline of 41.91% due to asset impairment losses [21] - The company’s gross margin decreased to 23.6% in 2024, attributed to changes in product and channel mix [21] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 2.252 billion yuan, a 25.36% increase, with a net profit growth of 44.38% [21]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "A" rating for the communication industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in the sector [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights optimistic projections for AI computing power following Q1 earnings, with leading companies expected to benefit from ongoing investments in AI infrastructure and technology [1][3]. - It emphasizes the strong capital expenditure from cloud giants, with Google reporting a 28% year-on-year increase in cloud revenue and a 43% increase in capital expenditure for Q1, totaling $17.2 billion [3][11]. - Domestic computing power is anticipated to see stronger growth in the second half of the year, driven by increased capital expenditures and the introduction of new technologies [4][12]. - The report also notes a significant recovery in military information technology orders, with a focus on smart, low-cost, and collaborative combat solutions [4][13]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Viewpoints and Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies in the optical communication sector, such as Zhongji Xuchuang and New Yisheng, which have shown substantial profit growth in Q1 [5][14]. - It also identifies key players in copper connections and domestic computing power, including Wolong Materials and Cambrian [5][14]. 2. Market Overview - The overall market performance for the week of April 21-27, 2025, showed mixed results, with the ChiNext Index up by 1.74% and the Shenzhen Component Index up by 1.38% [5][14]. - The top-performing sectors included wireless RF (+15.8%), optical modules (+12.7%), and industrial internet (+7.2%) [5][14]. 3. Company Performance - Notable stock performances included New Yisheng and Beishida, which saw increases of 22.22% and 16.16%, respectively [5][29]. - Conversely, companies like Invech and Kingsoft experienced declines, with drops of -8.93% and -7.23% [5][29]. 4. Overseas Developments - The report mentions Intel's Q1 earnings exceeding expectations, with revenue of $12.7 billion, although guidance for Q2 was below market expectations [35]. - It also discusses Samsung's ongoing challenges in attracting major clients for its advanced process technology, leading to delays in its Texas wafer fab [35]. 5. Industry News - The report notes that Quanta Computer has seen an increase in orders compared to last year, indicating a positive trend in demand for cloud services [42]. - TSMC's announcement of its new A14 process technology, expected to begin mass production in 2028, is highlighted as a significant advancement in semiconductor technology [42].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "A" rating for the communication industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in the sector [1]. Core Insights - The outlook for AI computing power remains optimistic post-Q1 earnings, with leading companies expected to benefit from the trend of "removing the false and retaining the true" [1]. - Strong capital expenditure from cloud giants is expected to drive growth in core sectors such as optical modules and copper connections, with significant year-on-year profit increases reported by key companies [3][11]. - Domestic computing power is anticipated to see stronger growth in the second half of the year, driven by increased capital expenditures and the introduction of new technologies [4][12]. - The military information technology sector is experiencing a notable recovery in orders, with a focus on smart, low-cost, and collaborative combat solutions [13]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Viewpoints and Investment Recommendations - The report highlights the robust capital expenditure from cloud giants, with Google reporting a 28% year-on-year revenue growth in its cloud division and a projected annual capital expenditure of $75 billion, up 43% [11]. - Domestic computing power is expected to benefit from increased capital expenditures in the AI infrastructure sector, with companies like Huawei leading the development of unified supernode technology standards [12]. 2. Market Overview - The overall market performance for the week (April 21-27, 2025) showed mixed results, with the ChiNext Index up 1.74% and the Shenzhen Component Index up 1.38% [14]. - The top-performing sectors included wireless RF (+15.8%), optical modules (+12.7%), and industrial internet (+7.2%) [14]. 3. Key Companies to Watch - Recommended companies in the optical communication sector include Zhongji Xuchuang, New Yisheng, and Shijia Photon [5]. - In the copper connection sector, companies like Wolong Nuclear Materials and Ding Tong Technology are highlighted [5]. - For domestic computing power, companies such as Cambrian and Haiguang Information are suggested for investment consideration [5]. 4. Overseas Developments - Intel reported a Q1 revenue of $12.7 billion, exceeding market expectations, although its guidance for Q2 was below expectations, leading to a stock price drop [35]. - Samsung's advanced process foundry has faced challenges in attracting major clients, resulting in delays in the construction of its 4nm wafer fab in Texas [35]. 5. Industry News - The report notes that Quanta Computer has seen an increase in orders compared to last year, indicating a positive trend in demand from major cloud service providers [42]. - TSMC is set to unveil its new A14 process technology, expected to enhance AI capabilities and improve energy efficiency in applications [42].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "A" rating for the electronic industry, indicating a leading performance compared to the market [1]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the high-quality development of artificial intelligence and the importance of seizing opportunities in domestic substitution and self-control [1][8]. - The electronic industry is expected to benefit from structural opportunities despite challenges such as rising costs and supply chain restructuring [8]. Market Overview - The overall market saw an increase during the week of April 21-25, 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.56%, Shenzhen Component Index by 1.38%, and the ChiNext Index by 1.74%. The semiconductor index, however, fell by 0.64% [4][14]. - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surged by 10.94%, and the Taiwan Semiconductor Index increased by 3.88% during the same period [4][14]. - Among the sub-sectors, consumer electronics led with a weekly increase of 3.86%, followed by other electronics at 2.74% and components at 2.43% [4][14]. Stock Performance - The top five stocks with the highest gains included Zhishang Technology (+44.76%), ST Yushun (+27.66%), *ST Tongzhou (+27.64%), Hanwei Technology (+22.97%), and Aobi Zhongguang-UW (+17.34%). Conversely, the largest declines were seen in Huilun Crystal (-21.26%), SIRUIPU (-19.25%), and Shengbang Co., Ltd. (-14.86%) [4][25]. Industry News - Major companies like Samsung, Micron, and SK Hynix are reducing DDR4 production, which may impact the supply chain dynamics [5][61]. - Alphabet's first-quarter earnings report showed a revenue of $90.23 billion, exceeding expectations, with a net profit of $34.5 billion, marking a 46% year-on-year increase [5][61]. - The Chinese government emphasizes the need for self-reliance and application-oriented development in artificial intelligence, which aligns with the industry's strategic direction [5][62]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors such as AI chips, lithography machines, and advanced packaging as long-term investment opportunities [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate-A" rating for the company [1][6] Core Views - The company is experiencing a rapid recovery in performance, driven by both domestic and foreign trade [1][5] - The revenue for Q1 2025 shows a year-on-year growth of 19.60%, indicating a strong recovery trend [4][5] Financial Performance Summary - For the year 2024, the company's revenue was 9.792 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.18% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 500 million yuan, down 41.33% year-on-year [4] - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 2.731 billion yuan, up 19.60% year-on-year, and a net profit of 186 million yuan, an increase of 11.03% year-on-year [4][5] - The total liabilities decreased by 31.38% to 8.419 billion yuan in 2024, while cash and cash equivalents dropped by 49.25% to 2.551 billion yuan [4] Market Data - As of April 28, 2025, the closing price was 11.19 yuan, with a market capitalization of 19.043 billion yuan [3] - The stock has seen a yearly high of 13.40 yuan and a low of 6.39 yuan [3] Earnings Forecast - The expected EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 0.42 yuan, 0.49 yuan, and 0.56 yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 26.9, 22.9, and 19.9 [6][9]