Group 1: Macro Asset Tracking - The bond market shows a decline in long-term rates and fluctuations in short-term rates, with a tightening liquidity environment leading to a correction of previously overestimated rate cut expectations, stabilizing around the six-month line, indicating potential for allocation [14][18] - The stock market is experiencing a necessary adjustment, particularly in small-cap technology stocks, while low-position dividend, consumer, and pharmaceutical sectors are expected to yield excess returns [2][18] - The foreign exchange market indicates a strong support level for the CNY/USD around 7.1, with expectations of continued depreciation pressure on the RMB due to trade war concerns, projecting a year-end offshore RMB rate of 7.5-7.6 [3][28] Group 2: Investment Strategy - In the bond market, it is recommended to manage duration while considering allocation [6] - For the A-share market, caution is advised regarding the feedback risk from small-cap technology stocks, with a focus on low-position dividend, consumer, and healthcare sectors [6][18] - In the U.S. stock market, a short-term rebound is anticipated, but mid-term adjustments are expected to continue, suggesting investors wait for long-term buying opportunities [7][26] Group 3: Sector Performance - The precious metals sector has outperformed, rising over 3%, while previously strong sectors like agricultural chemicals and rubber products have declined [20] - The market is witnessing a clear trend of profit-taking, with low-position dividend, healthcare, and consumer sectors showing favorable win rates and odds [20][21] - The commodity market indicates a slight decline in the Wenhua Commodity Index, with a recommendation for investors to buy on dips and set stop-losses at new lows [33]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][6] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 6.635 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 0.4%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 733 million yuan, up 2.6%. The adjusted net profit reached 1.018 billion yuan, marking a significant increase of 41.65% [3][6] - The revenue from innovative drugs reached 4.928 billion yuan, accounting for 74.3% of total revenue, which is the highest since the company's listing [3][6] - The company is set to launch multiple innovative drugs, including Enlitai and Xianbixin, which are expected to significantly contribute to revenue growth [4][5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 6.635 billion yuan and a net profit of 733 million yuan. The adjusted net profit was 1.018 billion yuan, indicating a robust growth trajectory [3][8] - The projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 7.659 billion yuan, 9.073 billion yuan, and 10.493 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 15.43%, 18.47%, and 15.65% [6][8] Innovative Drug Pipeline - The company has received approval for two new innovative drugs in 2024, expanding its portfolio to a total of eight approved innovative drugs. This includes the anticipated launch of Xianbixin, which is expected to enhance treatment options for stroke patients [4][5] - The innovative drug revenue is expected to continue growing, supported by the inclusion of Koseira and Enlitai in the national medical insurance directory, which will facilitate sales growth [4][5] Valuation Metrics - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 0.43 yuan, 0.52 yuan, and 0.62 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 17, 14, and 12 [6][8] - The report suggests that the company's valuation is likely to recover as the revenue from innovative drugs increases and multiple new products are launched [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for Zhujiang Beer with a target price of 11.76, compared to the last closing price of 10.30 [1]. Core Insights - Zhujiang Beer achieved a revenue of 5.731 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.56%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 810 million, up 29.95% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 762 million, reflecting a 36.79% increase [4][5]. - The sales volume of beer in 2024 was affected by demand, with a slight decline in overall production in China. However, Zhujiang Beer managed to increase its sales volume by 2.6% to 143.96 million tons and the average price per ton rose by 4.3% to 3828 [5][6]. - The company continues to optimize its product structure, launching new products like Zhujiang P9 and Zhujiang Beer 1985, while the flagship product, 97 Pure Draft, is expected to maintain double-digit growth [5][6]. Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, Zhujiang Beer reported a revenue of 844 million, a year-on-year increase of 2.11%, with net profit soaring by 118.74% to 4 million [4]. - The gross profit margin for 2024 reached 46.30%, an increase of 3.5 percentage points year-on-year, driven by product structure upgrades and cost optimization [5][10]. - The company forecasts revenue growth rates of 6% for 2025, 6% for 2026, and 5% for 2027, with net profit growth rates of 15%, 10%, and 9% respectively [5][6]. Market Position and Strategy - Zhujiang Beer has shown resilience in the South China market, with revenue from the region increasing by 7.5% to 5.49 billion, while other regions experienced a decline of 10.4% [5]. - The company has optimized its distributor network, with a net decrease of 114 distributors in Guangdong but an increase of 16 in other regions [5]. - The report highlights the ongoing structural upgrades and cost reductions as key drivers for improved profitability and market competitiveness [5][10].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is Neutral for the following sub-sectors: General Steel, Other Steel, and Special Materials [3] Core Insights - The steel industry is experiencing an overall decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.67%, Shenzhen Component Index down by 0.57%, and ChiNext Index down by 0.79% as of March 28, 2025 [3] - Hebei Province is accelerating the development of a world-class modern steel industry, aiming to achieve breakthroughs in 10 international leading technologies and develop 50 new products within the year [6] - The report highlights the performance of individual stocks, with the top three gainers being Hengxing Technology (+10.06%), Hangang Co., Ltd. (+6.10%), and Changbao Co., Ltd. (+4.73%) [4] Industry Data - Futures prices show slight declines: Rebar down by 0.28%, Wire Rod down by 0.26%, Hot Rolled Coil down by 0.12%, Iron Ore down by 0.19%, Coking Coal down by 1.06% [5] - Current prices for steel products are as follows: Iron Ore at 764.68 CNY/ton, Wire Rod at 3408.02 CNY/ton, Hot Rolled Coil at 3387.00 CNY/ton, Rebar at 3224.88 CNY/ton, Coking Coal at 1042.57 CNY/ton [5] - The Platts Index for Iron Ore shows 65% powder at 116.95, 58% powder at 88.9, and 62% powder at 104.55 [5] Company Announcements - Hebei Steel Group's Tangshan Steel has successfully produced over 1800 tons of high-end pipeline steel for a global refining project, meeting all performance indicators [8] - Benxi Steel Group achieved a production record in February, exceeding planned crude steel output by 17,000 tons [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][7] Core Insights - The company has shown significant revenue growth, achieving total revenue of 74.15 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 19,110% [4][9] - The core pipeline, including the drug IMM01, is progressing steadily with two Phase III clinical trials expected to report mid-term data in 2026 [5][7] - The company is actively expanding business development (BD) collaborations, including partnerships for dual-specific antibodies targeting PD-L1/VEGF and CD47/CD20 [6][7] Financial Summary - The company is projected to generate revenues of 151 million yuan in 2025, followed by 139 million yuan in 2026, and a significant increase to 675 million yuan in 2027 [9][11] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be -227 million yuan in 2025, -456 million yuan in 2026, and -508 million yuan in 2027 [9][11] - The company’s cash and short-term financial assets amounted to 752 million yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 23% [4][7]

金 金融工程点评 [Table_Title] [Table_Message]2025-03-28 申万一级家电指数趋势跟踪模型效果点评 [Table_Author] 证券分析师：刘晓锋 电话：13401163428 E-MAIL：liuxf@tpyzq.com 执业资格证书编码：S1190522090001 研究助理：孙弋轩 电话：18910596766 E-MAIL：sunyixuan@tpyzq.com 一般证券业务登记编码：S1190123080008 模型概述 结果评估： 区间年化收益：-12.12% 波动率（年化）：21.12% 夏普率：-0.57 最大回撤：28.98% 指数期间总回报率：27.55% 太 平 洋 证 券 股 份 有 限 公 司 证 券 研 究 报 告 [Table_Summary] 融 工 程 点 评 资料来源：Wind，太平洋研究院 资源来源：Wind，太平洋研究院 0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 20.00% 25.00% 30.00% 35.00% 2023-03-07 2023-04-17 2023-05-30 2023-07-11 2023-08-1 ...

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Industry Crowding Monitoring Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model is designed to monitor the crowding levels of Shenwan First-Level Industry Indices on a daily basis, identifying industries with high or low crowding levels and significant changes in crowding dynamics[4] - **Model Construction Process**: The model calculates crowding levels for each industry index based on specific metrics (not detailed in the report). It tracks daily changes and highlights industries with the highest and lowest crowding levels, as well as those with significant single-day changes[4] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides actionable insights into industry crowding trends, helping investors identify potential opportunities or risks[4] 2. Model Name: Premium Rate Z-Score Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model identifies potential arbitrage opportunities in ETF products by calculating the Z-score of premium rates over a rolling window[5] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the premium rate of each ETF product as the difference between its market price and its indicative net asset value (IOPV), divided by the IOPV 2. Compute the Z-score of the premium rate over a rolling window to standardize the deviation from the mean 3. Use the Z-score to filter ETFs with significant deviations, indicating potential arbitrage opportunities or risks of price corrections[5] - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively identifies ETFs with potential mispricing, offering opportunities for arbitrage or caution against price reversals[5] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Industry Crowding Monitoring Model - **Top Crowded Industries (Previous Trading Day)**: Basic Chemicals, Machinery Equipment, Environmental Protection[4] - **Least Crowded Industries (Previous Trading Day)**: Media, Real Estate[4] - **Industries with Significant Single-Day Changes**: Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology, Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery[4] 2. Premium Rate Z-Score Model - **Application**: Used to screen ETF products for potential arbitrage opportunities and risks of price corrections[5] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods No specific quantitative factors were detailed in the report --- Factor Backtesting Results No specific factor backtesting results were detailed in the report

2025 年 03 月 28 日 行业日报 中性/维持 房地产 房地产 太平洋房地产日报（20250328）：杭州挂牌出让 4 宗地块，成交 楼面价纪录再次被刷新 走势比较 (20%) (8%) 4% 16% 28% 40% 24/3/11 24/5/22 24/8/2 24/10/13 24/12/24 25/3/6 子行业评级 | 房 地 产 开 发 | 无评级 | | --- | --- | | 和运营 | | | 房地产服务 | 无评级 | 推荐公司及评级 相关研究报告 <<太平洋房地产日报（20250327）：张 亚东辞任绿城中国董事会主席等职 务>>--2025-03-27 <<太平洋房地产日报（20250326）：山 东威海发文促进住房消费>>--2025- 03-26 <<太平洋房地产日报（20250325）：杭 州 101 亿元成交 4 宗宅地>>--2025- 03-25 证券分析师：徐超 电话：18311057693 E-MAIL：xuchao@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190521050001 证券分析师：戴梓涵 电话：18217681683 E-MAIL：daizh@t ...

Quantitative Model and Construction - **Model Name**: Food and Beverage Trend Tracking Model [2] - **Model Construction Idea**: The model assumes that the price movement of the target has strong local continuity, always following a certain trend. Reversal periods are shorter than trend continuation periods. In cases of narrow consolidation, the model assumes the continuation of the previous trend. When observing a major trend, a short observation window is used to track the local trend. If a reversal occurs, the price movement at the start and end of the observation window will exceed the range caused by random fluctuations, eliminating the impact of randomness. [3] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the difference between the closing price on day T and day T-20, denoted as `del`. 2. Calculate the volatility (`Vol`) from day T-20 to day T (excluding day T). 3. If the absolute value of `del` exceeds `N` times `Vol`, the current price is considered to have exited the original oscillation range and formed a trend. The trend direction (long/short) corresponds to the sign of `del`. 4. If the absolute value of `del` is less than or equal to `N` times `Vol`, the current trend direction is assumed to continue, following the direction of day T-1. 5. For stock markets with higher volatility, `N` is set to 1 for tracking. 6. The combined results of long and short positions are used for final evaluation. Formula: $ del = P_{T} - P_{T-20} $ $ Vol = \sqrt{\frac{1}{20} \sum_{i=1}^{20} (P_{T-i} - \bar{P})^2} $ where $ P_{T} $ is the closing price on day T, $ P_{T-20} $ is the closing price on day T-20, and $ \bar{P} $ is the average price over the observation period. [3] - **Model Evaluation**: The model is not suitable for directly tracking the Food and Beverage Index due to its inability to achieve excess returns over the tracking period. While it performed well during certain periods (e.g., June 4, 2024, to September 18, 2024), achieving historical highs, it struggled in other market conditions, especially during range-bound periods. [4] Model Backtesting Results - **Annualized Return**: -12.31% [3] - **Annualized Volatility**: 23.84% [3] - **Sharpe Ratio**: -0.52 [3] - **Maximum Drawdown**: 36.61% [3] - **Total Return of Index During Period**: -22.69% [3]

[Table_Message]2025-03-28 申万一级农林牧渔偏离修复模型效果点评 [Table_Author] 证券分析师：刘晓锋 电话：13401163428 E-MAIL：liuxf@tpyzq.com 执业资格证书编码：S1190522090001 金 金融工程点评 [Table_Title] 研究助理：孙弋轩 电话：18910596766 E-MAIL：sunyixuan@tpyzq.com 一般证券业务登记编码：S1190123080008 模型概述 计算区间内申万一级农林牧渔指数收盘价相对沪深 300 指数的值 cl。 计算 cl 在区间内的回撤序列 W。 计算 W 中单次回撤期间的最大值。 对于所有单次回撤最大幅度，做降序排列，得到序列 S，对 S 求和，得 到 T。 对 S 做逐步累加，当累加和达到或超过 T 的 80%时，停止累加，将 S 中 并未参与累加的值去除，则 S 保留下来的数值序列为 S1. 结果评估： 区间策略总收益：90.10% 标的买入并持有收益：9.82% 总超额：80.28% 最大回撤：33.61% 最长回撤时间：589 交易日 太 平 洋 证 券 股 份 有 限 ...