Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][8]. Core Views - The company achieved significant revenue growth in 2024, with total revenue of approximately 1.971 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 53.94%, and a net profit of approximately 260 million yuan, up 31.65% year-on-year [1][5]. - The company is transitioning to become a global integrated supplier of automotive passive safety modules, with a focus on optimizing its customer structure and enhancing product value [4][5]. Revenue and Profitability - In Q4 2024, the company reported revenue of approximately 661 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 41.93% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 30.41% [1]. - The gross margin for 2024 was approximately 28.71%, down 2.81 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was approximately 13.21%, down 2.24 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Product Performance - Revenue from key products in 2024 included approximately 1.264 billion yuan from seatbelt assemblies, 475 million yuan from airbags, and 131 million yuan from steering wheels, with year-on-year growth rates of 39.90%, 151.86%, and 71.45% respectively [2]. Customer Base and Market Growth - The company’s major customers, including Geely, Chery, SAIC-GM-Wuling, Great Wall, and Yutong, collectively produced approximately 8.2127 million vehicles in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.84% [2]. Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025 to 2027 are approximately 2.80 billion yuan, 3.79 billion yuan, and 5.02 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 42.2%, 35.3%, and 32.3% respectively [5][7]. - Net profit projections for the same period are approximately 390 million yuan, 540 million yuan, and 710 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 50.2%, 37.0%, and 33.2% respectively [5][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the retail trade industry [3] Core Viewpoints - The rise in gold prices driven by risk aversion has led to a high level of activity in the gold market, with a year-on-year growth of 6.9% in gold and jewelry retail sales in Q1 2025, and a significant increase in gold prices by 17.96% [1] - The jewelry sector is expected to recover significantly in Q2 2025 due to a low base effect and rising gold prices, despite a challenging sales environment in 2024 [2] - The report highlights the importance of product innovation and brand strength as key competitive factors for jewelry companies in the long term [2] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The gold jewelry sector experienced a sales decline in 2024 due to rapidly rising gold prices, which increased by 28% for the year, leading to cautious consumer behavior [2] - The first quarter of 2025 showed improvement in sales due to the Spring Festival effect, with a positive trend expected to continue into Q2 as the industry enters a low base phase [2] Company Valuation - The overall valuation of the gold jewelry industry is currently low, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of approximately 13X as of April 23, 2025, for major companies such as Zhou Dasheng, Lao Fengxiang, and others [2] - The dividend yield for leading companies in the sector is strong, with Zhou Dasheng at approximately 7%, Lao Fengxiang at 4%, and others ranging from 4% to 6% [2] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading brands with low valuations and high dividend yields, specifically recommending companies like Lao Fengxiang, Zhou Dasheng, and others [3]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking the first coverage of its stock [5]. Core Views - The company has been deeply engaged in the ultrasonic flow measurement field for 30 years, establishing itself as an international leader in ultrasonic flow measurement products [2]. - In 2024, the company's performance faced pressure due to various macroeconomic factors, including tight local fiscal funding and a downturn in the real estate market, leading to a decline in revenue and net profit [2]. - The company’s gross margin remained relatively stable at 50.01% in 2024, with a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.79 percentage points [2]. - The company’s revenue from ultrasonic water meters and systems was 199 million yuan, down 32.73% year-on-year, while revenue from ultrasonic heat meters and systems increased by 1.83% to 109 million yuan [2]. - The company’s overseas sales revenue exceeded 50 million yuan in 2024, marking a year-on-year growth of approximately 31.30%, achieving a historical high [3]. - The company is expected to see a significant recovery in performance in the first quarter of 2025, with projected revenues of 461 million yuan, 531 million yuan, and 614 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 386 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 22.19%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 58 million yuan, down 44.65% [1]. - The first quarter of 2025 showed a recovery with operating revenue of 74 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 47.52%, and a net profit of 7 million yuan, up 71.77% [1]. Business Overview - The company provides integrated solutions for smart water supply and heating, with products including ultrasonic water meters, heat meters, and related management systems [2]. - The company holds independent intellectual property rights for all its products, covering various application stages from data collection to system integration [2]. Market Outlook - The demand for smart water meters in China is expected to grow rapidly due to ongoing policy support in water conservation and smart water management [3]. - The company has successfully secured a contract worth over 130 million yuan for a water meter project in Melbourne, Australia, marking a significant milestone in its overseas expansion [3].

宏观研究/宏观点评 | 核心观点 | | --- | 一、一季度广义赤字率仍保持高位:202501 广义财政赤字率为-7.26% (其中公共财政账户收支差额占现价 GDP 比重为-3.96%,政府性基金 账户收支差额占现价 GDP 比重为-3.30%),总体仍保持 2024年下半年 以来的较高水平(2024Q3、202404 季末累计分别为-7.00%、-7.73%)。 二、财政收入仍在恢复,而支出增速进一步上升。1-3月公共财政收入 累计同比-1.1 %(前值-1.6 %),公共财政支出累计同比 4.2 %(前值 3.4%);政府性基金收入累计同比-11.0%(前值-10.7%),政府性基金 支出累计同比 11.1 %(前值 1.2 %)。 三、财政支出结构:首先中央与地方支出都有所加速。1-3月公共财政 支出 72.815 亿元。其中,中央本级财政支出占比 12.0%,同比 8.9 % (前值8.6%);地方财政支出占比 88.0%,同比 3.6%(前值 2.7%)。 其次从公共财政支出项目来看,债务付息、社保和就业、教育、节能 | 日期: | 2025年04月21日 | | --- | --- | | ...

经济复苏成色几何？ 1.生产端：工业与服务业协同共进 1-2 月全国规模以上工业增加值同比增长 5.9%。制造业增加值增长幅 度达 6.9%。新能源汽车、3D 打印设备、工业机器人等为代表的新兴 产品产量分别增长 47.7%、30.2%、27.0%。我们认为数据反映了政策 导向下相关领域企业的科研投入的增强。同期全国服务业生产指数同 比增长 5.6%。我们认为，信息传输、软件和信息技术服务业的持续增 长或能反映目前国内经济增长中数字经济的兴起，行业有望持续发展。 2.需求端：消费复苏与投资稳健并行 消费市场逐步回暖。1-2 月份社零同比增长 4.0%。加力扩围实施的消 费品以旧换新政策成效显著，可选消费实现较高增速，地产相关消费 有所回升。春节期间的季节性效应带动，文旅体育市场活跃。消费者 信心指数连续 3 个月回升，我们认为其可以视作居民消费意愿的边际 改善信号，居民消费观念或从传统的生存型消费向发展型消费转变。 投资保持较快增长。1-2 月份全国固定资产投资（不含农户）同比增长 4.1%。制造业投资增长 9%，我们认为，在制造业高端化、智能化、绿 色化持续推进以及大规模设备更新政策推动了制造业投资增长。基 ...

商贸零售 行业研究/行业点评 3 月社零同比+5.9%，一季度良好开局 ——3 月社零数据点评 ◼ 核心观点 4 月 16 日，国家统计局公布 2025 年 3 月份社零数据。3 月我国社零 总额为 4.09 万亿元，同比增长 5.9%（增速环比+1.90pct）；其中，除汽 车以外的消费品零售额 3.66 万亿元，同比增长 6.0%。25Q1，社零总 额为 12.47 万亿元，同比增长 4.6%；其中，除汽车以外的消费品零售 额 11.34 万亿元，增长 5.1%。我们认为，外部不确定因素扰动，扩大 内需提振消费政策有望逐步落地，社零增速边际向好，坚定看好中国 产业供应链的强大韧性及中国内需市场的广阔空间。 电商渗透率趋缓，线下便利店专业店表现较优。25Q1，全国网上零售 额 3.62 万亿元（yoy+7.9%），其中实物商品网上零售额 3 万亿元 （yoy+5.7%），占社会消费品零售总额的比重为 24.0%，电商渗透率环 比+1.7pct。在实物商品网上零售额中，吃类/用类/穿类商品分别 +14.0%/5.6%/-0.1%。25Q1，限额以上零售业单位中便利店/超市/百货 店/专业店/品牌专卖店零售额同 ...

Economic Growth - The nominal GDP growth rate for Q1 2025 is 5.4% year-on-year, unchanged from Q4 2024, while the current price GDP growth rate slightly decreased to 4.59% from 4.62%[14] - The CPI average fell to -0.10% in March 2025, while the PPI average rose to -2.33%[14] Employment and Income - The urban surveyed unemployment rate in Q1 2025 increased to 5.27%, compared to 5.03% in Q4 2024[17] - Per capita disposable income grew by 5.6% year-on-year in Q1 2025, up from 5.1% in 2024[17] Consumer Spending - The total retail sales of consumer goods in Q1 2025 increased by 4.6% year-on-year, compared to 3.5% in 2024[24] - In March 2025, retail sales grew by 5.9% year-on-year, with significant increases in categories such as home appliances (35.1%) and furniture (29.5%) compared to previous months[27][28] Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment in the first three months of 2025 rose by 4.2% year-on-year, with infrastructure investment increasing by 11.5%[5] - Real estate development investment decreased by 9.9%, accounting for 19.3% of total fixed asset investment[5] Industrial Production - The industrial added value in Q1 2025 grew by 6.5% year-on-year, with high-tech industries increasing by 9.7%[48] - In March 2025, the industrial added value rose by 7.7% year-on-year, with mining and manufacturing sectors showing strong growth[48] Investment Recommendations - The high growth rates in industrial output, particularly in high-tech sectors, alongside robust infrastructure and manufacturing investments, are seen as foundational strengths for the Chinese economy[54]

◼ 投资建议 政府加杠杆托底，3 月社融数据表现亮眼。在政府融资带动下 3 月社 融数据表现亮眼。其中，政府融资是带动新增社融同比多增的重要因 素，体现出政府加杠杆的托底作用。此外，企业贷款的主要支撑项是 企业短贷，我们认为当前短贷或对票据和债券融资形成一定替代，这 或与美国关税政策带来的不确定性高企下企业经营周转资金需求增 加，以及当月票据利率和债券发行利率走高等因素有关。另一方面， 居民端信贷的边际变化主要或是受存量住房贷款利率下调带来的潜在 提前还贷减少，以及消费贷利率上调预期下的潜在提前借款行为影响， 同时地产销售的回升也有所带动。但一季度居民贷款合计同比少增 2900 亿元，我们认为其或反映目前居民部门加杠杆意愿仍然具有提振 空间，随着"两会"后大力提振消费政策出台、居民收入预期不确定 性预计改善，有望对居民短期消费需求有所提振。当前外部关税政策 复杂性上升，央行"择机降准降息"窗口或将临近，二季度债市收益 率有望挑战前低。 固定收益/固收点评 政府加杠杆托底，3 月社融数据表现亮眼 ——3 月社融数据点评 ◼ 核心观点 事件：2025 年 4 月 13 日，央行公布 2025 年 3 月金融统计数 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook on its performance relative to the market benchmark [3]. Core Insights - The company reported a 2024 revenue of 1.501 billion yuan, a year-over-year decrease of 16.13%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 52 million yuan, down 60.07% year-over-year, which aligns with prior forecasts [1][5]. - The company is facing challenges from industry demand contraction, intensified market competition, and supply chain pressures, but it is actively implementing a differentiated competitive strategy to navigate these challenges [1][2]. - The company is transitioning towards a digital service-oriented model in the water sector, focusing on building a smart water ecosystem that integrates intelligent sensing, data-driven approaches, and engineering services [2]. - A cash dividend of 2 yuan per 10 shares is proposed, amounting to approximately 39.98 million yuan, which represents 76.27% of the company's net profit for 2024 [2]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 1.709 billion yuan, 1.979 billion yuan, and 2.329 billion yuan, reflecting year-over-year growth rates of 13.9%, 15.8%, and 17.7% respectively [3][5]. - Net profit projections for the same years are 62 million yuan, 73 million yuan, and 88 million yuan, with expected growth rates of 18.3%, 17.7%, and 20.5% [3][5]. - The report outlines a gradual improvement in earnings per share, forecasting 0.31 yuan in 2025, 0.36 yuan in 2026, and 0.43 yuan in 2027 [5][12]. Valuation Metrics - The company’s price-to-earnings ratio is projected to decrease from 38.50 in 2024 to 24.62 by 2027, indicating an improving valuation as earnings grow [5][12]. - The return on equity is expected to rise from 3.3% in 2024 to 5.3% in 2027, reflecting enhanced profitability [5][12].

纺织服饰 行业研究/行业点评 关税加码建议关注国产替代主线，高铁宠物托运助推"AI+宠 物"及携宠出游板块发展 ——宠物行业周观点 ◼ 核心观点 关税扰动加码，内需景气持续，看好国产替代主线。据央视新闻，2025 年 4 月 10 日，美国政府宣布对中国输美商品征收"对等关税"的税率进一 步提高至 125%。4 月 11 日，国务院关税税则委员会发布公告，自 2025 年 4 月 12 日起，调整对原产于美国的进口商品加征关税税率，由 84%提 高至 125%。鉴于在目前关税水平下，美国输华商品已无市场接受可能性， 如果美方后续对中国输美商品继续加征关税，中方将不予理会。我们认为， 关税及对等关税对依赖美国市场的出口型企业及进口美国品牌销售的代 理型企业产生一定冲击，但短期关税扰动不改宠物行业的长期成长性，国 产替代和内需扩容是未来中国宠物市场的核心主线，建议关注自主品牌占 比高、国内国际双循环发展、海外产能多元化布局的头部企业。 高铁试点宠物托运，"AI+宠物"及携宠出游板块有望受益。据央视新闻和 人民日报，自 4 月 8 日起，铁路部门在京沪高铁的北京南、济南西、南京 南、上海虹桥、杭州东等 5 座车站间 ...