宏观研究/宏观点评 | 核心观点 | | --- | 一、一季度广义赤字率仍保持高位:202501 广义财政赤字率为-7.26% (其中公共财政账户收支差额占现价 GDP 比重为-3.96%,政府性基金 账户收支差额占现价 GDP 比重为-3.30%),总体仍保持 2024年下半年 以来的较高水平(2024Q3、202404 季末累计分别为-7.00%、-7.73%)。 二、财政收入仍在恢复,而支出增速进一步上升。1-3月公共财政收入 累计同比-1.1 %(前值-1.6 %),公共财政支出累计同比 4.2 %(前值 3.4%);政府性基金收入累计同比-11.0%(前值-10.7%),政府性基金 支出累计同比 11.1 %(前值 1.2 %)。 三、财政支出结构:首先中央与地方支出都有所加速。1-3月公共财政 支出 72.815 亿元。其中,中央本级财政支出占比 12.0%,同比 8.9 % (前值8.6%);地方财政支出占比 88.0%,同比 3.6%(前值 2.7%)。 其次从公共财政支出项目来看,债务付息、社保和就业、教育、节能 | 日期: | 2025年04月21日 | | --- | --- | | ...

经济复苏成色几何？ 1.生产端：工业与服务业协同共进 1-2 月全国规模以上工业增加值同比增长 5.9%。制造业增加值增长幅 度达 6.9%。新能源汽车、3D 打印设备、工业机器人等为代表的新兴 产品产量分别增长 47.7%、30.2%、27.0%。我们认为数据反映了政策 导向下相关领域企业的科研投入的增强。同期全国服务业生产指数同 比增长 5.6%。我们认为，信息传输、软件和信息技术服务业的持续增 长或能反映目前国内经济增长中数字经济的兴起，行业有望持续发展。 2.需求端：消费复苏与投资稳健并行 消费市场逐步回暖。1-2 月份社零同比增长 4.0%。加力扩围实施的消 费品以旧换新政策成效显著，可选消费实现较高增速，地产相关消费 有所回升。春节期间的季节性效应带动，文旅体育市场活跃。消费者 信心指数连续 3 个月回升，我们认为其可以视作居民消费意愿的边际 改善信号，居民消费观念或从传统的生存型消费向发展型消费转变。 投资保持较快增长。1-2 月份全国固定资产投资（不含农户）同比增长 4.1%。制造业投资增长 9%，我们认为，在制造业高端化、智能化、绿 色化持续推进以及大规模设备更新政策推动了制造业投资增长。基 ...

商贸零售 行业研究/行业点评 3 月社零同比+5.9%，一季度良好开局 ——3 月社零数据点评 ◼ 核心观点 4 月 16 日，国家统计局公布 2025 年 3 月份社零数据。3 月我国社零 总额为 4.09 万亿元，同比增长 5.9%（增速环比+1.90pct）；其中，除汽 车以外的消费品零售额 3.66 万亿元，同比增长 6.0%。25Q1，社零总 额为 12.47 万亿元，同比增长 4.6%；其中，除汽车以外的消费品零售 额 11.34 万亿元，增长 5.1%。我们认为，外部不确定因素扰动，扩大 内需提振消费政策有望逐步落地，社零增速边际向好，坚定看好中国 产业供应链的强大韧性及中国内需市场的广阔空间。 电商渗透率趋缓，线下便利店专业店表现较优。25Q1，全国网上零售 额 3.62 万亿元（yoy+7.9%），其中实物商品网上零售额 3 万亿元 （yoy+5.7%），占社会消费品零售总额的比重为 24.0%，电商渗透率环 比+1.7pct。在实物商品网上零售额中，吃类/用类/穿类商品分别 +14.0%/5.6%/-0.1%。25Q1，限额以上零售业单位中便利店/超市/百货 店/专业店/品牌专卖店零售额同 ...

Economic Growth - The nominal GDP growth rate for Q1 2025 is 5.4% year-on-year, unchanged from Q4 2024, while the current price GDP growth rate slightly decreased to 4.59% from 4.62%[14] - The CPI average fell to -0.10% in March 2025, while the PPI average rose to -2.33%[14] Employment and Income - The urban surveyed unemployment rate in Q1 2025 increased to 5.27%, compared to 5.03% in Q4 2024[17] - Per capita disposable income grew by 5.6% year-on-year in Q1 2025, up from 5.1% in 2024[17] Consumer Spending - The total retail sales of consumer goods in Q1 2025 increased by 4.6% year-on-year, compared to 3.5% in 2024[24] - In March 2025, retail sales grew by 5.9% year-on-year, with significant increases in categories such as home appliances (35.1%) and furniture (29.5%) compared to previous months[27][28] Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment in the first three months of 2025 rose by 4.2% year-on-year, with infrastructure investment increasing by 11.5%[5] - Real estate development investment decreased by 9.9%, accounting for 19.3% of total fixed asset investment[5] Industrial Production - The industrial added value in Q1 2025 grew by 6.5% year-on-year, with high-tech industries increasing by 9.7%[48] - In March 2025, the industrial added value rose by 7.7% year-on-year, with mining and manufacturing sectors showing strong growth[48] Investment Recommendations - The high growth rates in industrial output, particularly in high-tech sectors, alongside robust infrastructure and manufacturing investments, are seen as foundational strengths for the Chinese economy[54]

◼ 投资建议 政府加杠杆托底，3 月社融数据表现亮眼。在政府融资带动下 3 月社 融数据表现亮眼。其中，政府融资是带动新增社融同比多增的重要因 素，体现出政府加杠杆的托底作用。此外，企业贷款的主要支撑项是 企业短贷，我们认为当前短贷或对票据和债券融资形成一定替代，这 或与美国关税政策带来的不确定性高企下企业经营周转资金需求增 加，以及当月票据利率和债券发行利率走高等因素有关。另一方面， 居民端信贷的边际变化主要或是受存量住房贷款利率下调带来的潜在 提前还贷减少，以及消费贷利率上调预期下的潜在提前借款行为影响， 同时地产销售的回升也有所带动。但一季度居民贷款合计同比少增 2900 亿元，我们认为其或反映目前居民部门加杠杆意愿仍然具有提振 空间，随着"两会"后大力提振消费政策出台、居民收入预期不确定 性预计改善，有望对居民短期消费需求有所提振。当前外部关税政策 复杂性上升，央行"择机降准降息"窗口或将临近，二季度债市收益 率有望挑战前低。 固定收益/固收点评 政府加杠杆托底，3 月社融数据表现亮眼 ——3 月社融数据点评 ◼ 核心观点 事件：2025 年 4 月 13 日，央行公布 2025 年 3 月金融统计数 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook on its performance relative to the market benchmark [3]. Core Insights - The company reported a 2024 revenue of 1.501 billion yuan, a year-over-year decrease of 16.13%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 52 million yuan, down 60.07% year-over-year, which aligns with prior forecasts [1][5]. - The company is facing challenges from industry demand contraction, intensified market competition, and supply chain pressures, but it is actively implementing a differentiated competitive strategy to navigate these challenges [1][2]. - The company is transitioning towards a digital service-oriented model in the water sector, focusing on building a smart water ecosystem that integrates intelligent sensing, data-driven approaches, and engineering services [2]. - A cash dividend of 2 yuan per 10 shares is proposed, amounting to approximately 39.98 million yuan, which represents 76.27% of the company's net profit for 2024 [2]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 1.709 billion yuan, 1.979 billion yuan, and 2.329 billion yuan, reflecting year-over-year growth rates of 13.9%, 15.8%, and 17.7% respectively [3][5]. - Net profit projections for the same years are 62 million yuan, 73 million yuan, and 88 million yuan, with expected growth rates of 18.3%, 17.7%, and 20.5% [3][5]. - The report outlines a gradual improvement in earnings per share, forecasting 0.31 yuan in 2025, 0.36 yuan in 2026, and 0.43 yuan in 2027 [5][12]. Valuation Metrics - The company’s price-to-earnings ratio is projected to decrease from 38.50 in 2024 to 24.62 by 2027, indicating an improving valuation as earnings grow [5][12]. - The return on equity is expected to rise from 3.3% in 2024 to 5.3% in 2027, reflecting enhanced profitability [5][12].

纺织服饰 行业研究/行业点评 关税加码建议关注国产替代主线，高铁宠物托运助推"AI+宠 物"及携宠出游板块发展 ——宠物行业周观点 ◼ 核心观点 关税扰动加码，内需景气持续，看好国产替代主线。据央视新闻，2025 年 4 月 10 日，美国政府宣布对中国输美商品征收"对等关税"的税率进一 步提高至 125%。4 月 11 日，国务院关税税则委员会发布公告，自 2025 年 4 月 12 日起，调整对原产于美国的进口商品加征关税税率，由 84%提 高至 125%。鉴于在目前关税水平下，美国输华商品已无市场接受可能性， 如果美方后续对中国输美商品继续加征关税，中方将不予理会。我们认为， 关税及对等关税对依赖美国市场的出口型企业及进口美国品牌销售的代 理型企业产生一定冲击，但短期关税扰动不改宠物行业的长期成长性，国 产替代和内需扩容是未来中国宠物市场的核心主线，建议关注自主品牌占 比高、国内国际双循环发展、海外产能多元化布局的头部企业。 高铁试点宠物托运，"AI+宠物"及携宠出游板块有望受益。据央视新闻和 人民日报，自 4 月 8 日起，铁路部门在京沪高铁的北京南、济南西、南京 南、上海虹桥、杭州东等 5 座车站间 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Increase" [6] Core Viewpoints - Domestic substitution is a key focus due to external environmental changes and industrial upgrades. The semiconductor equipment and related domestic substitution industry chain are expected to benefit continuously [1][13] - The global sales of AI smart glasses are projected to reach 90 million units by 2030, indicating a significant growth point in the consumer electronics sector [1][14] - The domestic smartphone market saw a shipment of 19.662 million units in February 2025, a year-on-year increase of 37.9%, with 5G smartphones accounting for 91.5% of the total shipments [2][15] - The domestic computing power market is expected to expand due to AI demand, with companies in the industry chain continuing to benefit from this growth [2][16][17] Summary by Sections 1. Core Viewpoints and Investment Recommendations - Domestic substitution is emphasized as a major trend, with the semiconductor equipment industry expected to benefit from this acceleration [1][4] - The AI smart glasses market is anticipated to grow significantly, with various manufacturers launching products in 2024 and 2025 [1][14] - The recovery of the domestic smartphone market is noted, with significant growth in 5G smartphone shipments [2][15] - The computing power industry is set to benefit from increased investments by operators [2][4] 2. Market Review - The A-share Shenwan Electronics Index fell by 2.71%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 1.34 percentage points [3][19] - Among the sub-sectors, the semiconductor sector declined by 0.59%, while the consumer electronics sector saw a drop of 7.77% [3][22] 3. Industry News - The U.S. has imposed a 34% tariff on Chinese imports in response to trade tensions, prompting China to implement countermeasures [32][34] - The launch of the Longxin 3C6000/D dual-server is highlighted, showcasing advancements in domestic computing power [32][16] - Qualcomm's announcement of the fourth-generation Snapdragon 8s mobile platform is expected to drive innovation in the smartphone market [33] 4. Company Dynamics - Jiangfeng Electronics is recommended for investment due to its position in the domestic substitution trend [4][40] - Companies such as Guoguang Electric and Edifier are noted for their innovations in AI glasses and audio products, respectively [37][38] - The expansion of production capacity by Ajinomoto in semiconductor materials is expected to enhance its market position [34][35]

通信 行业研究/行业周报 A OFC 2025 开展，宁波移动落地浙江省首个万兆 OLT 试商用局点 ——通信行业周报（2025.3.31-2025.4.4） ◼ 核心观点 5G-A：苹果 iOS 18.4 发布，支持 5G-A 网络。根据 C114 通信网 4 月 3 日消息，苹果向 iPhone 用户推送了 iOS 18.4 正式版更新，带来多项 新功能和优化，其中尤以支持 5G-A 网络备受关注。作为 5G 的演进 和增强版本，5G-A 提供了十倍于既有网络的能力提升和通感一体、 无源物联、内生智能等新能力。2024 年 5G-A 迎来商用元年，已有超 过 15家运营商完成 5G-A网络的商用部署。在国内，三大运营商也均 已在各地陆续进行了 5G-A 升级并发布相关套餐，开启全新时代。 市场行情回顾 本周（3.31-4.4），A 股申万通信指数下跌 0.79%，整体跑赢沪深 300 指数 0.58pct，跑赢创业板综指数 1.56pct。申万通信二级两大子板块 涨跌幅由高到低分别为：通信服务(申万)(0.81%)、通信设备(申万)(- 1.74%)。从海外市场指数表现来看，整体继续维持弱势，海内外指数 ...

◼ 核心观点 主要客户需求向好，规模效应驱动业绩增长 公司主要客户赛力斯、理想、吉利等排产需求向好，据 Marklines，24 年产量分别约 49.64万辆、51.04 万辆和 267.51 万辆，同比分别约+94%、 +34%和+41%，24Q4 产量分别约 12.64 万辆、16.04 万辆和 88.72 万 辆，同比分别约+5%、+17%和+31%，环比分别约-5%、+4%和+33%。 此外，据 Marklines，小鹏 Mona M03 热销，24Q4 产量约 4.04 万辆， 环比约+210.91%。 盈利能力强劲，24Q4 净利率创季度新高 博俊科技(300926) 公司研究/公司点评 24Q4 业绩表现亮眼，优质客户持续放量 ——24 年业绩点评 ◼ 事件描述 公司发布 2024 年年报。2024 年公司实现营收约 42.27 亿元，同比约 +62.55%；归母净利润约 6.13 亿元，同比约+98.74%。其中 24Q4，营 收约 13.65 亿元，同比约+51.67%，环比约+19.82%；归母净利润约 2.45 亿元，同比约+93.41%，环比约+80.79%。 2024 年公司毛利率约 ...