本月联储利率按兵不动&缩表速度调降符合预期，但鸽派言论"关税通胀临时论"出 现。鲍威尔并未将本次点阵图中通胀预期的上修明确归咎为关税的影响，且认为需要 重点关注"关税"对通胀的影响是否为临时性的（transitory）。 我们认为这一表述是本次会议中最为鸽派的信号，即联储可能不会急于对关税导致通 胀的"一次性冲击"进行过度反应。换言之，如果未来的实际经济数据呈现出"滞胀" 特征时，联储可能更关注"滞"而非"胀"。 证券研究报告 | 宏观专题研究 | 中国宏观 鸽派发言"关税通胀临时论"出现 ──3 月美联储议息会议传递的信号 核心观点 展望未来，近期衰退预期上修和美股回落后，特朗普国内民调有所走弱，考虑到特朗 普的执政基础并不稳定（尤其明年面临中选压力，共和党在众议院的席位仅领先民主 党 5 席，差距是过去百年最小，从中选角度考虑施政容错率较低），我们认为美国经济 和美股对特朗普仍存在实质性约束，Q1 下行压力加大后可能倒逼特朗普的政策预期 在 Q2 后逐步趋稳，包括关税预期趋稳、财税政策落地以及 DOGE 的裁员进程可能有 所放缓；从而带动美国经济在 Q2 逐步企稳向上。 在此背景下，我们认为全年美国经济的 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is not explicitly stated in the provided content, but it can be inferred that the banking sector is viewed positively with a performance increase of +1.42% on March 19 [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the banking sector has shown resilience and growth amidst market fluctuations, driven by a rebalancing of market styles and significant capital inflows [5]. - The overall market performance on March 19 indicates mixed results, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.1% and the Hang Seng Index up by 0.12%, reflecting varied investor sentiment across sectors [3][4]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - On March 19, the Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.1%, while the CSI 300 increased by 0.06%. The STAR Market 50 index fell by 1.18%, and the ChiNext index dropped by 0.28%. The Hang Seng Index saw a slight increase of 0.12% [3][4]. - The best-performing sectors included banking (+1.42%), utilities (+1.28%), automotive (+0.67%), home appliances (+0.6%), and non-ferrous metals (+0.26%). Conversely, the worst-performing sectors were telecommunications (-2.47%), electronics (-1.59%), media (-1.51%), computing (-1.43%), and conglomerates (-1.17%) [3][4]. Bond Market Insights - The report discusses the bond market, indicating that the current tightening of liabilities among major banks may stem from a shift in the central bank's stance. The report suggests that the long-term yields may not have fully adjusted yet, with the 10-year government bond yield expected to reach an upper limit of 2.0%-2.1% and the 30-year yield at 2.3%-2.4% [6]. - It emphasizes that the behavior of financial institutions regarding wealth management and funds will be crucial in the upcoming market adjustments, as previous reliance on trust mechanisms is diminishing [6]. Credit Bond Market Analysis - The report notes that the Chinese bond market typically experiences rapid declines followed by prolonged recoveries. It highlights that the speed of recovery corresponds to the speed of adjustment, with lower-grade city investment bonds showing delayed recovery [8]. - The analysis indicates that the recent market downturn was influenced by a combination of factors, including tightening liquidity, policy signals from the central bank, and shifts in market sentiment [8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Insights - The company reported a total transaction volume of 3.35 trillion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.6%. The existing home transaction volume was 2.25 trillion yuan, up 10.8% year-on-year, accounting for 67.1% of total transactions. The new home transaction volume was 0.97 trillion yuan, down 3.3% year-on-year, with a market share of 11.4%, an increase of 1.7 percentage points from 2023. The company's net revenue for 2024 was 93.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.2%, while adjusted net profit was 7.21 billion yuan, down 26.4% year-on-year [1][10] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The second-hand housing market showed a 6% increase in transaction area in 35 key cities, while the new housing market saw a 12.9% decline in transaction area nationwide. The company, as a leading internet intermediary, is expected to benefit from the market recovery [2] Operational Efficiency - The company's operating expenses for 2024 were 19.2 billion yuan, with a fee rate of 20.5%, down 1.2 percentage points from 2023. The number of stores increased to 51,573, with active stores at 49,693, a growth of 18.3%. The number of agents reached 500,000, with active agents at 445,000, a year-on-year increase of 12.1% [3] Revenue Growth from New Segments - The home decoration business generated net revenue of 14.8 billion yuan, up 36.1% year-on-year, accounting for 15.8% of total revenue. The rental business saw net revenue of 14.3 billion yuan, a significant increase of 135% year-on-year, contributing to 15.3% of total revenue. The "second curve" revenue contribution reached 34%, an increase of 9 percentage points year-on-year [4] Financial Forecasts - The company is expected to achieve an adjusted net profit of 6.8 billion yuan in 2025, with an adjusted earnings per share of 1.89 yuan. The revenue for 2025 is projected to be 101.37 billion yuan, reflecting an 8% growth [11][10]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes a positive outlook for the metal industry, particularly highlighting the interplay between industrial metals and strategic metals, with a focus on supply constraints and seasonal demand [1][3]. Industrial Metals - The supply of industrial metals is expected to remain tight, with a strong demand season approaching, particularly for aluminum and copper. The report notes that aluminum prices have significantly improved due to a drop in alumina prices and robust demand from sectors like photovoltaics and automotive [5][17]. - Copper supply is projected to increase only modestly, with a net addition of 380,000 tons from 36 global mining companies, which is lower than previous expectations. This, combined with favorable macroeconomic policies, is expected to support copper prices in the second quarter [5][17]. - Steel sector performance is anticipated to be strong, driven by limited production expectations and seasonal demand, particularly during the "golden three months" of March to May [5]. Strategic Metals - Strategic metals such as cobalt, tin, antimony, and titanium are highlighted as key investment opportunities due to their rising valuations amid geopolitical tensions and export controls [5]. - The report suggests that the ongoing U.S.-China rivalry will enhance the attractiveness of strategic metals, with a focus on rare earth materials and other critical resources [5]. Precious Metals - The report indicates that gold is likely to remain in a comfortable price range, supported by factors such as inflation expectations, geopolitical risks, and ongoing central bank purchases. The anticipated U.S. interest rate cuts are expected to further bolster gold prices [12][13]. - The performance of precious metal equities is expected to improve, with a focus on companies that can deliver actual growth in a strong price environment. The report notes that valuations for gold stocks have become attractive, with several companies trading below 20x earnings [15][12]. Aluminum Market - The aluminum market is experiencing a bullish trend, with prices rising significantly due to low inventory levels and strong demand from various sectors. The report notes that as of March 10, 2025, the price of aluminum on the Shanghai market was 20,760 CNY per ton, reflecting an 8% year-on-year increase [17][19]. - Global aluminum inventories are at low levels, with significant reductions observed in LME and COMEX stocks, indicating a tightening supply situation that supports higher prices [23][25].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" as the industry index is expected to outperform the CSI 300 index by more than 10% [40]. Core Insights - Shenzhen is advancing its ESG framework, aiming to create a unique Chinese model that aligns with international standards while promoting sustainable development [2][27]. - The initiative focuses on enhancing corporate ESG practices, establishing a local ESG standard system, and fostering a green investment environment [12][23]. - The report emphasizes the need for a China-led supply chain ESG audit standard system to address existing challenges and enhance competitiveness [31][34]. Summary by Sections 1. Plan Content - The Shenzhen government has released a plan to build an ESG ecosystem centered on corporate practices, aiming for comprehensive ESG disclosure by state-owned enterprises and listed companies by 2027 [12][17]. - The plan sets specific targets, including a 60% ESG disclosure rate for key sectors and the establishment of at least 10 ESG-related standards and service institutions [16][17]. 2. Policy Interpretation - The plan reflects Shenzhen's commitment to becoming a pioneer in ESG practices, leveraging its position in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area [27][28]. - It aims to integrate ESG standards with economic development and green industry upgrades, showcasing Shenzhen's manufacturing and technological advantages [27][29]. 3. Key Measures - Shenzhen will develop a comprehensive ESG standard system covering disclosure, verification, and rating, while promoting data sharing and establishing an ESG database [23][25]. - The plan includes tailored strategies for different market participants, enhancing ESG practices across state-owned, foreign trade, and private enterprises [25][26]. - Financial institutions will be encouraged to innovate ESG-related financial products and improve carbon accounting systems to attract investment in green projects [25][26].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to the market index [8][16]. Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of $390 million for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 43.7%, and a Non-GAAP net profit of $70 million, which is a 65% increase compared to the previous year [1]. - In Q4 2024, the company experienced a significant increase in commission income, which reached $56 million, a year-on-year growth of 154.9%, driven by a 182% increase in stock trading volume to $55.5 billion [2]. - The number of new funded clients exceeded expectations, with a total of 1.092 million clients by the end of 2024, marking a 20.7% increase year-on-year [3]. - The company has upgraded its AI investment assistant to TigerAI, enhancing its technological capabilities [5]. - The forecast for Non-GAAP net profit growth is projected at 71% for 2025, with earnings per ADS expected to be $0.78, leading to a corresponding PE ratio of 12.43 [6]. Financial Summary - For 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of $392 million, with projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 at $517 million, $659 million, and $767 million respectively, indicating growth rates of 32.13%, 27.43%, and 16.39% [13]. - The Non-GAAP net profit for 2024 was $70 million, with estimates of $120 million, $156 million, and $197 million for the following three years, reflecting growth rates of 70.99%, 29.85%, and 25.60% [13]. - The average revenue per user (ARPU) for Q4 2024 was $116.8, showing a year-on-year increase of 48% [3].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company is a pioneer in the domestic GPU field, continuously iterating its products and expanding applications from military to consumer and AI computing [1][2] - The company is transitioning from a "specialized" to a "specialized + general" product strategy, leveraging AI and consumer-grade graphics cards to open new growth avenues [2] - The domestic GPU market is expected to grow significantly, driven by increasing demand for AI capabilities and government support for computing infrastructure [3][4] Summary by Sections 1. Domestic GPU Pioneer - The company successfully developed the first domestically produced GPU chip and has been a leader in the field since 2007, with product evolution from the JM5 series to the JM11 series and the Jinghong series [1][14] - In 2023, the company's revenue was affected by macroeconomic fluctuations and demand changes, with revenue contributions from graphics display, chips, and radar at 65.1%, 14.2%, and 18.5% respectively [1][17] 2. AI Computing Opportunities - The company is capitalizing on the AI-driven demand for GPUs, with the JM11 series chips compatible with major operating systems and suitable for gaming, animation, cloud computing, and AI applications [2][34] - The launch of the Jinghong series high-performance intelligent computing modules aims to fill gaps in AI training and scientific computing, supporting various mixed-precision operations [2][14] 3. Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are estimated at 5.15 billion, 7.77 billion, and 10.47 billion yuan, with corresponding growth rates of -27.82%, +50.96%, and +34.66% [4][11] - The company is compared to peers in the GPU sector, with a projected price-to-sales ratio of 60 times for 2025, indicating a favorable valuation compared to competitors [4][12]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the daily price changes of various metals, indicating a mixed performance across the sector. Notably, lithium carbonate and copper have shown slight increases, while nickel and zinc have experienced declines [2] Summary by Relevant Sections Daily Metal Price Changes - Lithium Carbonate: 75,000 CNY/ton, daily change +0.23%, year-to-date change +0.13% [2] - Lithium Hydroxide: 70,000 CNY/ton, daily change 0.00%, year-to-date change +0.34% [2] - Copper: 80,000 CNY/ton, daily change +0.30%, year-to-date change +8.88% [2] - Gold: 700.7 CNY/gram, daily change +0.82%, year-to-date change +13.38% [2] - Electrolytic Nickel: 131,000 CNY/ton, daily change -2.89%, year-to-date change +4.63% [2] - Aluminum: 21,000 CNY/ton, daily change -0.05%, year-to-date change +5.00% [2] - Lead: 18,000 CNY/ton, daily change -0.45%, year-to-date change +4.53% [2] - Zinc: 24,000 CNY/ton, daily change -0.66%, year-to-date change -7.47% [2] - Tin: 281,000 CNY/ton, daily change -0.24%, year-to-date change +14.20% [2] - Silver: 8.4 CNY/gram, daily change +0.19%, year-to-date change +11.78% [2] - Antimony: 178,000 CNY/ton, daily change +1.73%, year-to-date change +27.28% [2] - Molybdenum: 444,000 CNY/ton, daily change 0.00%, year-to-date change -3.27% [2] - Titanium Sponge: 53,000 CNY/ton, daily change 0.00%, year-to-date change +8.16% [2] - White Tungsten Concentrate: 140,000 CNY/ton, daily change 0.00%, year-to-date change -2.45% [2] - Magnesium: 17,000 CNY/ton, daily change -0.63%, year-to-date change -3.36% [2] - Neodymium Praseodymium Oxide: 448,000 CNY/ton, daily change 0.00%, year-to-date change +11.18% [2] - Metal Silicon: 14,000 CNY/ton, daily change 0.00%, year-to-date change -4.63% [2]

证券研究报告 规模化提速，确定性提升 ——低空经济板块二季度策略报告 2025年3月17日 行业评级：看好 分析师 邱世梁 分析师 黄华栋 证书编号 S1230520050001 证书编号 S1230522100003 邮箱 qiushiliang@stocke.com.cn 邮箱 huanghuadong@stocke.com.cn 研究助理 彭沈楠 投资要点 1、低空经济当下的投资逻辑？ —— 2025年是低空经济规模化落地元年 短期看，2024年内各省份低空经济发展方案和支持措施已陆续出台，2025年在两会政府工作报告指导下，将是低空经济规模化落地元年，低空经济新技术、新产品、 新场景有望在政策推动下大规模放量应用。展望25年二季度，相关指导文件有望在低空司统筹下发布，指导地方低空投建营落地，eVTOL首批六个试点城市有望进度 领先。长期看，低空经济作为新质生产力将助力宏观经济复苏，同时在中外新兴产业竞争中也极具战略意义。 2、低空基建：项目中标进入爆发期，关注照明、空管和规划设计 24年12月起低空经济相关中标开始爆发。总量上据我们统计，24年12月低空经济相关项目中标总金额15.3亿元，环比增长26 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - Yongyi Co., Ltd. is a leading manufacturer in the office chair export sector, showcasing significant growth potential driven by multiple factors [1][4] - The company has established a strong presence in the office chair market, with a focus on both export and domestic sales, indicating a robust growth trajectory [2][3] Summary by Sections Office Chair Export Leadership - Yongyi Co., Ltd. has been deeply involved in the office chair sector since its establishment in 2001, becoming the first listed company in China's chair industry [14] - The company reported a revenue of 3.54 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year decrease of 12.8%, with a net profit of 298 million yuan, also down 11% [15][17] Global and Domestic Market Trends - The global office chair market was valued at 15 billion USD in 2023, with China being the largest producer [2][19] - The domestic market for office chairs is expected to grow significantly, with a projected market size of 37.6 billion yuan by 2026 [44] Growth Drivers - The company is set to benefit from the introduction of new clients and products, with a focus on expanding its customer base in 2024 and beyond [3][48] - Yongyi's production capacity is expanding, particularly in Vietnam and Romania, which will enhance its competitive edge in the global market [51] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 4.73 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 34%, with net profits projected to reach 327 million yuan [4][11] - The price-to-earnings ratio for 2025-2026 is estimated at 10x and 8x, respectively, indicating a favorable valuation [4][11]