证券研究报告 | 策略专题研究 | 中国策略 策略专题研究 报告日期：2025 年 08 月 27 日 降息预期遇上人工智能+，大盘成长风格走向高潮 ——板块轮动月报（2025 年 9 月） 核心观点 JH 会议鲍威尔放鸽，在货币政策框架调整、就业下行风险上升等因素影响下，美联储 9 月降息概率大增，全球流动性有望趋于改善。展望 9 月，美联储降息预期升温背景 下，A 股大盘成长风格或将迎来高潮，行业风格重视成长和消费。行业方面关注：胜 率思维下，"AI+"下游应用方向的传媒和计算机，强 beta 品种券商；赔率思维下，"水 往低处流"，大金融方向涨幅落后的房地产；美联储降息预期升温背景下的有色金属、 基础化工，以及 9 月日历效应显示的社会服务板块。 ❑ 风格轮动：市值看大盘，估值看成长，行业风格择成长+消费 1）市值风格：中盘≈大盘＞小盘，市值风格或偏向中大盘；2）估值风格：全指 成长明显强于全指价值，排名靠前的风格当中成长相关指数聚集性较强，估值风 格或偏向成长；3）中信行业风格：成长＞消费＞周期＞金融＞稳定，预计成长、 消费相对占优。综合而言，9 月份大盘成长、行业风格成长+消费值得重点关注。 全球流 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Viewpoints - The company successfully issued convertible bonds amounting to 1.17 billion yuan, primarily aimed at expanding the production capacity of semiconductor thin-film deposition equipment, enhancing R&D capabilities, and supplementing working capital [1][8] - The company is a leading domestic supplier of ALD equipment, with a focus on advanced semiconductor thin-film deposition processes, including High-k ALD technology, which is crucial for manufacturing integrated circuits below the 28nm process node [2] - The company has also made significant strides in CVD equipment, with a growing order book and a projected increase in semiconductor revenue share over the next three years [3] - In the photovoltaic equipment sector, the company is a pioneer in applying ALD technology at scale, maintaining a leading position in revenue, order volume, and market share among domestic peers [4] Summary by Sections Semiconductor Equipment - The company has a strong foothold in ALD and CVD equipment, with a 66% year-on-year increase in semiconductor orders, totaling 1.5 billion yuan by the end of 2024 [3] - The company is expanding its production capacity with a new smart factory project, expected to generate annual sales of 1.565 billion yuan upon reaching full capacity [8] Photovoltaic Equipment - The company is recognized as a leader in high-efficiency battery technology and equipment, collaborating with major domestic photovoltaic manufacturers [4] - Despite a decline in new orders for photovoltaic equipment this year, the company is well-positioned to benefit from the upcoming growth in new battery technologies [4] Financial Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 2.7 billion, 3.1 billion, and 3.4 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 340 million, 460 million, and 560 million yuan, reflecting growth rates of 51%, 34%, and 21% respectively [9][11]

证券研究报告 | 金融工程专题 2025H1，微盘股强势领涨，背后可能主要受量化资金推动，体现为私募新发规模 与微盘超额之间相关性显著。不过，我们认为量化资金后续发力空间有限，H2 核 心增量资金可能来自游资、居民等个人投资者： 1、我们已经观察到私募量化的激进度开始回落，私募量化新发空气指增+量化选 股等激进类产品的占比已从 7 月的 46%下行至 8 月的 36%。此外，测算结果显 示，私募量化对微盘的暴露已经达到历史高点附近，未来进一步向微盘偏离的空 间可能有限。 金融工程专题 报告日期：2025 年 08 月 27 日 资金面的接力："量化牛"转"全面牛" ——金融工程研究报告 核心观点 A 股或将由上半年的"量化牛"转为"全面牛"，核心推动力在于个人投资者接替量化 资金成为 A 股主导力量。未来建议关注券商、恒生科技、公用事业板块。 ❑ 2025 增量资金从哪来？H1 量化牛，7-8 月游资加杠杆，9 月后等待居民资金接 力。 2、个人投资者已经开始争夺定价权，直接表现为融资余额的加速增长和游资定价 权的显著提升，我们构建的游资活跃度指标与国证 2000 指数相对净值的滚动 1 年 相关系数自 7 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Dong'e Ejiao is maintained as "Buy" [6][7]. Core Views - The company's performance in the first half of 2025 met expectations, with revenue of 3.051 billion RMB (up 11.02% year-on-year) and net profit attributable to shareholders of 818 million RMB (up 10.74% year-on-year) [6]. - The company is expected to achieve sustainable high-quality growth throughout the year, supported by strong brand power and marketing systems [6]. - The gross profit margin remains stable, and profit growth is anticipated to outpace revenue growth due to cost reduction and efficiency improvements [6]. - A mid-term dividend plan has been implemented, with a cash dividend of 12.69 RMB per 10 shares, totaling approximately 817 million RMB, which represents 99.94% of the net profit for the first half of 2025 [6]. - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 1.896 billion RMB, 2.273 billion RMB, and 2.718 billion RMB, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.94 RMB, 3.53 RMB, and 4.22 RMB [6][7]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2024, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 5.921 billion RMB, 6.820 billion RMB, 7.808 billion RMB, and 8.899 billion RMB, reflecting growth rates of 25.57%, 15.20%, 14.48%, and 13.97% respectively [4]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to grow from 1.557 billion RMB in 2024 to 2.718 billion RMB in 2027, with growth rates of 35.29%, 21.75%, 19.87%, and 19.60% [4][6]. - The company’s comprehensive gross profit margin for the first half of 2025 was 73.13%, with a slight year-on-year decline of 0.41 percentage points [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [5] Core Views - The company has shown steady profit growth with a year-on-year increase in revenue and net profit of 0.5% and 4.6% respectively for the first half of 2025, although the growth rates have slightly decreased compared to the first quarter [2][5] - The net interest margin remains resilient, with a slight decrease to 1.60% in the first half of 2025, indicating improved profitability despite challenges in non-interest income [2][3] - The non-interest income has faced significant pressure, declining by 16.6% year-on-year, primarily due to a substantial drop in card-related income [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 28,741 million and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 12,114 million, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 0.5% and 4.6% [6] - The non-performing loan ratio remained stable at 1.17% as of the end of Q2 2025, while the provision coverage ratio decreased by 8 percentage points to 356% [4][6] Profitability and Margins - The average net interest margin for the first half of 2025 was 1.60%, slightly down from the previous quarter, with the asset yield decreasing to 3.05% [3] - The cost of liabilities improved, with a decrease in the cost of time deposits contributing to a better margin [3] Asset Quality - The non-performing loan ratio for retail operating loans increased to 2.46% by the end of the first half of 2025, indicating a need for close monitoring of this segment [4] - The company’s TTM non-performing loan generation rate was 0.86%, showing a slight increase in pressure [4] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve a net profit growth of 5.2%, 5.5%, and 6.3% for the years 2025 to 2027, with a target price of 7.81 CNY per share, reflecting a potential upside of 21% [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Chengdu Bank is "Buy" with a target price of 21.12 CNY per share, indicating an upside potential of 18% from the current price of 17.86 CNY [5][7]. Core Insights - Chengdu Bank's H1 2025 earnings growth has improved, with revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders increasing by 5.9% and 7.3% year-on-year, respectively [2][5]. - The bank's asset quality remains strong, with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio stable at 0.66% and a provision coverage ratio of 453% as of the end of Q2 2025 [4][5]. - Future growth is supported by strong regional economic vitality and robust credit demand, which is expected to sustain rapid profit growth [3][5]. Summary by Sections Earnings Performance - Chengdu Bank's revenue and net profit for H1 2025 increased by 5.9% and 7.3% year-on-year, with quarter-on-quarter growth rates improving by 2.7 percentage points and 1.6 percentage points, respectively [2][5]. - The bank's total assets grew by 14.3% year-on-year, with loans increasing by 18.0% [2][5]. Interest Margin and Cost of Deposits - The net interest margin for Q2 2025 slightly decreased by 2 basis points to 1.58%, but improved by 1 basis point year-on-year, primarily due to a reduction in deposit costs [3][4]. - The cost of deposits improved to 1.96% in H1 2025, down from 2.16% in 2024, benefiting from interest rate cuts [3][4]. Asset Quality - The NPL ratio remained stable at 0.66%, while the attention loan ratio increased slightly to 0.44% [4][5]. - The TTM generation rate for NPLs and attention loans decreased by 14 basis points to 0.27%, indicating continued improvement in asset quality [4][5]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - Chengdu Bank's net profit is projected to grow by 7.95%, 7.35%, and 9.52% for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding book values per share of 21.12, 23.60, and 26.35 CNY [5][12]. - The target valuation for 2025 is set at a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1.0x [5].

Market Overview - On August 26, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.39%, the CSI 300 decreased by 0.37%, the STAR 50 dropped by 1.31%, the CSI 1000 was down by 0.02%, the ChiNext Index declined by 0.76%, and the Hang Seng Index decreased by 1.18% [4] - The best-performing sectors on August 26 were Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery (+2.62%), Beauty and Personal Care (+2.04%), Basic Chemicals (+1.26%), Media (+1.23%), and Comprehensive (+1.09%). The worst-performing sectors were Pharmaceuticals and Biology (-1.09%), Non-Bank Financials (-1.06%), Steel (-0.98%), Defense and Military Industry (-0.93%), and Communications (-0.79%) [4] - The total trading volume of the A-share market on August 26 was 27,098.31 billion, with a net inflow of 16.572 billion HKD from southbound funds [4] Important Recommendations Weichai Heavy Machinery (000880) - Recommended as a leading manufacturer of marine medium-speed engines, with AIDC driving high growth in the diesel generator business [5] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 5,280 million, 6,935 million, and 8,093 million, with growth rates of 32%, 31%, and 17% respectively. Net profit is expected to be 301 million, 502 million, and 624 million, with growth rates of 62%, 67%, and 24% respectively [5] - The expected earnings per share are 0.91, 1.52, and 1.88, with PE ratios of 56, 33, and 27 [5] Bank of China Hong Kong (02388) - Recommended for its combination of high dividends and growth potential, benefiting from Chinese enterprises going global and the Belt and Road Initiative [6] - Target price is set at 44.28 HKD per share, corresponding to a 2025 PB of 1.26 times, indicating a potential upside of 20% [6] - Expected net profit growth rates for 2025-2027 are 5.55%, 3.38%, and 1.56%, with BPS projected at 35.18, 38.38, and 41.56 HKD [7] Important Insights GLP-1 Sector Analysis - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the GLP-1 sector, highlighting significant opportunities for domestic companies in the weight loss indication area [8] - Investment opportunities are identified in companies with competitive clinical data and advanced pipelines, including Borui Pharmaceutical, Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical, and others [8] - Catalysts for growth include clinical data releases and ongoing business development events [8] Taotao Vehicle (301345) - The company reported an 88% year-on-year growth in its first half performance, positioning itself as a leading player in the North American leisure vehicle market [9] - Investment opportunities arise from the company's consistent performance and accelerated smart technology integration [9] - Catalysts include exceeding order expectations and an improved competitive landscape [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 1.314 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.65%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 82 million yuan, a decrease of 48.65% year-on-year [2][4] - The revenue from bulk gases increased by 23.1% year-on-year, while the revenue from specialty gases decreased by 18.4% year-on-year due to significant price declines in key products [2][3] - The company is focusing on both organic growth and external acquisitions to enhance its long-term development, having successfully integrated CHEM-GAS and Hanxing Gas to expand its market presence [3][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company reported a revenue of 691 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.6% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.07%. The net profit for the quarter was 38 million yuan, down 54.3% year-on-year and 13.19% quarter-on-quarter [2] - The overall gross margin for H1 2025 was 29.7%, a decrease of 4.6 percentage points year-on-year, with a net margin of 6.9%, down 6.7 percentage points year-on-year [2] Growth Strategy - The company is pursuing a multi-business collaboration strategy, focusing on the development path of "bulk retail - electronic specialty gases - electronic bulk - on-site gas production" [3] - In H1 2025, the company onboarded 18 new semiconductor clients for electronic specialty gases and secured six new projects in electronic bulk gases [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are adjusted to 198 million yuan, 275 million yuan, and 363 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 46, 33, and 25 [4] - The company is expected to see significant growth potential as new projects come online and various business segments continue to expand [4]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [4][6]. Core Insights - The company is a leading AI for Science innovative R&D platform, leveraging a combination of AI, quantum technology, and robotics to create competitive advantages, primarily in pharmaceutical R&D, with plans to expand into materials and other fields, suggesting that revenue growth and profit release may exceed expectations [1][2]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company integrates quantum physics, AI algorithms, and robotic automation to enhance R&D efficiency in pharmaceuticals and materials science [15]. - Founded by three MIT postdoctoral researchers, the company has established partnerships with major pharmaceutical firms, including 17 of the top 20 global drug companies [2][19]. 2. Financial Performance - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 602 million, 918 million, and 1.316 billion CNY in 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 126.1%, 52.4%, and 43.3% [4][10]. - The company anticipates turning a profit in the first half of 2025, with expected revenues of at least 500 million CNY, a 387% increase from the first half of 2024 [40]. 3. Market Trends - The global CRO market is projected to grow from 12.3 billion USD in 2023 to 32.5 billion USD by 2030, with a CAGR of 14.9% [3][55]. - The report highlights a significant trend towards outsourcing in drug development, with the global market for outsourced drug discovery services expected to grow from 7.6 billion USD in 2018 to 32.5 billion USD by 2030 [55][56]. 4. Business Model and Growth Drivers - The company employs a revenue-sharing model that enhances income flexibility, with significant potential revenue from collaborations, including a recent agreement with DoveTree that could yield up to 58.9 billion USD in milestone payments [2][39]. - The company has developed a unique high-throughput experimental platform that operates 24/7, generating high-quality data to improve AI models, thus enhancing the drug discovery process [16][44]. 5. Product and Service Offerings - The company offers a diverse range of products, including intelligent synthesis workstations and AI software applications, which collectively create a robust barrier to entry in the market [48]. - The company has established a comprehensive R&D platform that covers the entire drug development process, integrating multiple core products and technologies [45][46]. 6. Strategic Partnerships - The company has formed strategic partnerships with leading pharmaceutical companies, including Pfizer and Merck, to enhance its market presence and drive innovation [48][49]. - The report notes that the company has successfully developed key projects, including an innovative targeted drug that integrates AI and organoid disease models, receiving FDA approval [50].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The current bond market does not have a basis for significant adjustment. If confidence in the bond market is limited, investors may wait for the yield to adjust further before entering the market with a configuration mindset. If still confident in the bond market, the current point after breaking below the annual line may have obvious short - term trading value [1][4][42] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2020 - 2022 Scenarios of 10 - year Treasury Futures Breaking Below the Annual Line - **Scenario 1: July 6, 2020 (Breaking Below the Annual Line and Continuing to Weaken)** - After the closing price of the 10 - year Treasury futures main contract broke below the annual line, it experienced short - term fluctuations and rebounds but then continued to decline. The macro - trading logic reversed. The macro - economy showed strong resilience, and the recession expectation significantly cooled. The monetary policy shifted from loose to tight, and the supply of Treasury bond issuance increased, leading to liquidity shock pressure. The 10 - year Treasury futures did not form effective support at the annual line [13] - **Scenario 2: June 27, 2022 (Breaking Below the Annual Line and Then Rebounding Quickly)** - After the closing price of the 10 - year Treasury futures main contract broke below the annual line, it quickly rebounded after a short - term adjustment. In the second quarter of 2022, steady - growth policies were intensively implemented, driving up the expectation of economic recovery. However, due to risk events such as real - estate unfinished building mortgage suspension and rural bank thunderstorms and weak economic data, the recovery expectation declined. Coupled with obvious improvement in liquidity, the 10 - year Treasury futures got strong support near the annual line [23] - **Scenario 3: November 14, 2022 (Breaking Below the Annual Line and Then Oscillating at a Low Level)** - After the closing price of the 10 - year Treasury futures main contract broke below the annual line, the short - term market was weak but did not deviate significantly from the annual line, showing a low - level oscillation state. Real - estate support policies and the shift of epidemic - prevention policies drove up the expectation of economic improvement. The game between strong expectation and weak reality reappeared. After March 2023, the weak reality problem was confirmed again, and the bond market started the next round of upward trend under the logic of abundant funds [28] Analysis of the Current Round of 10 - year Treasury Futures Breaking Below the Annual Line - **Fundamentals** - The macro - economy performed relatively well in the first half of the year, but the economic and financial data in July were relatively weak, indicating that economic stabilization still needs time. The Politburo meeting in July had a relatively cautious tone, and the priority of implementing existing policies was higher than increasing new policy intensity, which may dampen market optimism. The fundamental expectation or current situation does not support a significant upward movement of Treasury yields [3][34] - **Funding Situation** - Since mid - March, the funding rate has been continuously declining, and the difference between the funding rate and the policy rate has gradually converged. The possibility of the central bank tightening liquidity unexpectedly in the next stage is relatively low. An abundant liquidity environment may prevent Treasury yields from rising further [38] - **Stock - Bond Seesaw** - The stock - bond seesaw is the main reason for the recent bond - market adjustment, but the bond market has shown signs of desensitization to the equity market. The equity market's upward slope has increased recently, and potential adjustment risks need to be guarded against. If the equity - market trend corrects, it may drive the bond - market trend to further recover [3][39] Bond - Market Strategy Thinking - The appropriate bond - market strategy depends on two aspects: the bull - bear state of the bond market and the investment purpose (trading or configuration). If confidence in the bond market is limited, wait for the yield to adjust further and then enter the market with a configuration mindset. If still confident in the bond market, the current point after breaking below the annual line has obvious short - term trading value [4][42]