Core Insights - The demand side indicates that the long bull market in equities, combined with the stock-bond seesaw effect, may lead to continued outflow of funds from the bond market, while the demand for convertible bonds remains resilient [1] - On the supply side, the prevalence of strong redemptions in convertible bonds is likely to continue, but issuance is expected to improve starting in 2026, leading to a potential new-old transition in market structure [1] - From a long-term perspective, convertible bonds are expected to enter a slow bull market alongside equities, but their performance is likely to be weaker than stocks and stronger than pure bonds [1] Demand Side Analysis - The stock-bond seesaw effect suggests that funds may continue to flow out of the bond market, with solid returns from equity markets driving this trend [2] - The core advantage of fixed income plus funds lies in their diversified asset allocation, which balances the risk-return characteristics of stocks and bonds [2] - Despite a slight outflow of funds recently, the demand for convertible bonds remains robust, with the share and scale of secondary bond funds significantly expanding in Q3 2025 [8] Supply Side Analysis - The convertible bond market saw a rapid contraction post-2015 bull market, with the market balance dropping to just 13.3 billion yuan by the end of 2015, a decrease of over 120 billion yuan from the previous year [11] - As the equity bull market continues, some existing convertible bonds will likely have strong redemption windows, and the prevalence of strong redemptions is expected to persist [11] - Starting in 2026, the issuance of convertible bonds is projected to improve, with an estimated supply of around 50-60 billion yuan, slightly better than in 2025 [16] Valuation and Market Dynamics - The historical valuation trends of convertible bonds generally follow the movements of the equity market, with the premium rate primarily driven by balanced and equity-oriented convertible bonds [19] - In a bull market for equities, investors may prefer balanced and equity-oriented convertible bonds to capture higher returns [19] - The current market faces challenges due to limited capacity for fund absorption and high price valuations, which compress the yield space for convertible bonds [19][20]

Market Overview - On November 19, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.18%, the CSI 300 increased by 0.44%, the STAR Market 50 fell by 0.97%, the CSI 1000 decreased by 0.82%, the ChiNext Index rose by 0.25%, and the Hang Seng Index dropped by 0.38% [3][4] - The best-performing sectors on November 19 were non-ferrous metals (+2.39%), oil and petrochemicals (+1.67%), defense and military (+1.11%), beauty and personal care (+1.09%), and banking (+0.92%). The worst-performing sectors were comprehensive (-3.08%), real estate (-2.09%), media (-1.72%), building materials (-1.71%), and retail (-1.7%) [3][4] - The total trading volume for the A-share market on November 19 was 17,426.66 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 6.591 billion Hong Kong dollars from southbound funds [3][4] Important Insights Macroeconomic Analysis - In October 2025, the growth rate of fiscal expenditure slowed down due to a combination of factors: a phase of retreat following a preemptive fiscal push earlier in the year and a high base effect from the previous year [5] - The Ministry of Finance reported that fiscal policy implementation fell short of expectations, with hidden debts increasing beyond expectations [5] Strategic Research - The market outlook suggests a "systematic slow bull" phase, indicating a slower and more systematic market movement [6] - Inflation is expected to return, with a focus on cyclical sectors before consumer sectors in 2026 [6] - The market remains neutrally optimistic, considering various factors such as international conditions, economic cycles, domestic policies, capital flows, market sentiment, and broad valuations [6] - The Shanghai Composite Index is anticipated to experience a gradual upward trend, with fluctuations expected between the high point in February 2021 and the 0.809 quantile of the range from 5,178 to 2,440 [6]

Market Overview - On November 18, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.81%, the CSI 300 decreased by 0.65%, the STAR 50 rose by 0.29%, the CSI 1000 dropped by 1%, and the ChiNext Index declined by 1.16% [5] - The best-performing sectors on November 18 were Media (+1.6%), Computer (+0.93%), Electronics (+0.12%), and Food & Beverage (+0.03%), while the worst-performing sectors were Coal (-3.17%), Electric Equipment (-2.97%), Steel (-2.85%), Nonferrous Metals (-2.8%), and Basic Chemicals (-2.67%) [5] - The total trading volume of the A-share market on November 18 was 1,946 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 7.466 billion HKD from southbound funds [5] Important Recommendations Company: Baiao Intelligent (300836) - The recommendation logic highlights the company's positioning in customized automation equipment, with opportunities in munitions and AI computing power expected to enhance profitability [6] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 1,055 million, 1,368 million, and 1,774 million yuan, with growth rates of 126.4%, 29.7%, and 29.7% respectively. Net profit is forecasted at 122 million, 169 million, and 221 million yuan, with growth rates of 346.8%, 38.0%, and 30.6% respectively [6] Company: Lu Wei Optoelectronics (688401) - The recommendation is based on the company's rare capabilities in G11 and G8.6 high-generation platforms, benefiting from the IT-OLED market expansion and semiconductor recovery [7] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are 1,164.17 million, 1,568.91 million, and 2,120.63 million yuan, with growth rates of 32.96%, 34.77%, and 35.17% respectively. Net profit is expected to be 262.67 million, 366.91 million, and 514.29 million yuan, with growth rates of 37.62%, 39.68%, and 40.17% respectively [8] Key Insights Machinery Sector - The core viewpoint indicates a cyclical reversal, growth emergence, and acceleration of overseas expansion in the machinery sector [9] - The focus has shifted from emphasizing self-sufficiency to promoting overseas expansion, with growth expected in engineering machinery, industrial gases, and semiconductor equipment [9] Communication Sector - The communication sector is expected to see steady growth, with a focus on computing power, operator benefits, and satellite internet opportunities [10] - The domestic commercial rocket is anticipated to successfully conduct test flights, contributing to the sector's growth [10] Media and Internet Sector - The media and internet sector is projected to recover in 2026, driven by policy support, improved content supply, and accelerated AI commercialization [12] - The emphasis is on the structural improvement of content supply and the enhanced efficiency brought by AI applications in advertising and content creation [12] Computer Sector - The computer industry is witnessing a systematic breakthrough in domestic computing power, transitioning from technical advancements to commercialization of AI applications [14] - Investment opportunities are identified in domestic computing power and the commercial realization of AI, with catalysts including breakthroughs in domestic computing power [14]

Group 1 - The report anticipates a transition of the Chinese economy from a bottoming phase to a recovery phase in 2026, driven by three unexpected demand-side factors: U.S. fiscal expansion, rising exports, and improved real estate supply-demand dynamics [1][21][54] - U.S. fiscal deficit is projected to reach 5.9% in FY 2026, with potential increases to 7.2% if tariff revenues are eliminated, which could lead to a medium-strength recovery starting in Q1 2026 [1][21][25] - The global supply chain reconstruction is expected to boost China's export growth, particularly in machinery and transportation equipment, which have shown significant growth since April 2025 [2][54][58] Group 2 - The real estate market is showing signs of recovery, with an estimated inventory clearance period of approximately 25.3 months as of September 2025, suggesting a potential stabilization in housing prices by the end of 2026 [3][54] - The strategy emphasizes a focus on cyclical sectors before consumer sectors, with particular attention to industries such as chemicals, new energy, and construction materials, which are expected to benefit from the recovery narrative [6][54] - The report highlights that the micro-cap stock market may continue its bullish trend, with an estimated net inflow of approximately 5 billion yuan per month from new private equity quantitative products [7][54]

Fiscal Performance - In October 2025, national general public budget revenue increased by 3.2% year-on-year, primarily driven by accelerated tax revenue growth[1] - National general public budget expenditure in October 2025 decreased by 9.8% year-on-year, a significant decline compared to the previous month's growth of 3.1%[1] - The completion rate of the general fiscal budget revenue from January to October 2025 was 60.5%, consistent with the same period in 2024, while the expenditure completion rate was 72.7%, exceeding the 2024 level[2] Government Fund Budget - The revenue from the government fund budget in October 2025 saw a year-on-year decline of 18.4%, contrasting with a previous increase of 5.6%[2] - The expenditure growth rate for the government fund budget in October 2025 was -38.2%, down from 0.4% in the previous month[2] - The total government fund budget revenue from January to October 2025 was 34,473 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.8% year-on-year, with land use rights transfer income dropping by 7.4%[9] Tax Revenue Insights - Tax revenue in October 2025 reached 20,700 billion yuan, reflecting an 8.6% year-on-year increase, while non-tax revenue fell by 33%[4] - From January to October 2025, domestic VAT, consumption tax, corporate income tax, and personal income tax grew by 4.0%, 2.4%, 1.9%, and 11.5% respectively, indicating a stable recovery in the macroeconomic environment[5] Expenditure Trends - The expenditure in key areas such as social security and employment, health, and education showed strong progress, with completion rates of 85.6%, 79%, and 76.4% respectively[8] - To meet the annual expenditure targets, an increase in fiscal spending in November and December 2025 is necessary[2] Risks and Outlook - Potential risks include the possibility of fiscal policies not being implemented as expected and the increase of hidden debts beyond projections[14][46] - The introduction of new policy financial tools and the allocation of 500 billion yuan from central fiscal resources to local governments are expected to support economic recovery in the fourth quarter[3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [8] Core Insights - The company has established a unique position in the display and semiconductor industry by integrating "display + IC + advanced packaging" capabilities, with a focus on high-generation mask production [1][2] - The demand for display masks is expected to increase due to the penetration of AMOLED technology and the localization of G8.6 IT-OLED production lines, which will enhance both volume and pricing [1][2] - The semiconductor market is recovering, and the company is expanding its production capacity in advanced packaging, which will further drive growth [3][4] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has evolved from film and chrome plates to a comprehensive platform covering G2.5 to G11, enhancing its production capabilities and market position [1][19] - The company is the only domestic manufacturer with a G11 production line, providing a competitive edge in high-generation and high-precision products [1][20] AMOLED and IT-OLED Development - The penetration of AMOLED technology is accelerating, particularly in smartphones and IT devices, leading to increased demand for display masks [41][43] - The G8.6 IT-OLED production lines are being established in China, which will further localize production and enhance the company's market presence [2][41] Semiconductor Market and Advanced Packaging - The global semiconductor market is entering a recovery phase, with increased demand for high-precision masks driven by advanced packaging trends [3][4] - The company is expanding its production lines for semiconductor masks, targeting 130-40nm processes, which will support its growth in this segment [4][5] Financial Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 11.64 billion, 15.69 billion, and 21.20 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 2.63 billion, 3.67 billion, and 5.14 billion yuan, reflecting strong growth rates [5][12] - The company's P/E ratios are projected to decrease from 34.32 in 2025 to 17.53 in 2027, indicating potential for value appreciation [5][12]

Market Overview - On November 17, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.46%, the CSI 300 decreased by 0.65%, the STAR 50 dropped by 0.53%, while the CSI 1000 rose by 0.27%, and the ChiNext Index declined by 0.2%. The Hang Seng Index also decreased by 0.71% [4][5]. - The best-performing sectors on November 17 included Computer (+1.67%), Defense and Military Industry (+1.59%), Coal (+1.32%), Communication (+1.1%), and Real Estate (+1%). The worst-performing sectors were Pharmaceutical and Biological (-1.73%), Banking (-1.31%), Non-Bank Financials (-1.11%), Building Materials (-0.93%), and Home Appliances (-0.84%) [4][5]. Key Recommendations - The report recommends Yanzhou Coal Mining Company (600188) with a focus on its capacity expansion towards 300 million tons, indicating a potential turnaround in the industry cycle. The company is expected to benefit from both internal expansion and external acquisitions, with coal prices anticipated to rebound [6]. - The target price for Yanzhou Coal is set at 18.9 CNY, representing a 29% upside from the current price [6]. - Revenue projections for Yanzhou Coal from 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 130,266.60 million CNY, 170,012.53 million CNY, and 186,826.14 million CNY, with growth rates of -6.37%, 30.51%, and 9.89% respectively. Net profit is forecasted at 10,017.42 million CNY, 15,232.49 million CNY, and 18,048.79 million CNY, with growth rates of -30.56%, 52.06%, and 18.49% respectively [6]. Industry Insights - The report highlights that the TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sector and the pharmaceutical industry have significantly contributed to the profitability of the STAR Market, with overall earnings improving compared to the mid-year reports [8]. - The rapid development of the AI industry, particularly in the upstream computing power segment, is driving growth in the technology sector, with notable increases in net profit for companies in computing, communication, and electronics [8][9]. - Approximately 80% of industries reported positive capacity expansion rates in the third quarter of 2025, indicating a favorable supply-demand outlook [9].

Overall Dimension: Profitability Turns Positive - The overall revenue of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board (科创板) increased by 7% in Q3 2025, with net profit attributable to shareholders growing by 8% year-on-year, marking an improvement of 3 and 24 percentage points compared to H1 2025 respectively [10][11][12] - The net profit decline for the Sci-Tech 50 index narrowed from -42% in H1 to -19% in Q3, while the Sci-Tech 100 index saw a decrease from 152% to 135%, and the Sci-Tech 200 index improved from 1% to 3% [11][12] Industry Dimension: TMT Performs Well - In terms of profitability, the automotive and TMT sectors led the way, with net profit growth rates of 139%, 131%, 63%, and 56% respectively for automotive, computer, communication, and electronic industries [25][26] - The growth in the computer, communication, and electronic sectors is primarily driven by the rapid development of the AI industry, particularly in the upstream computing power segment [25][26] - The automotive sector's profitability improved due to the rapid growth of Ninebot's electric two-wheeler business, despite the electric equipment sector being a major drag on overall performance [25][26] Economic Outlook: Supply and Demand Continue to Improve - Approximately 80% of industries reported positive capacity expansion rates in Q3 2025, indicating a favorable trend in capacity expansion across the board [28][31] - The order backlog, as indicated by the sum of contract liabilities and advance receipts, showed a year-on-year doubling in industries such as bioproducts, ground weaponry II, and optical optoelectronics, with improvements noted compared to H1 2025 [30][33]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that steel prices are stabilizing, and the equity market is expected to remain strong in the short term due to style preferences [1] Price Performance - The SW Steel Index has shown a year-to-date increase of 31.4%, while the SW General Steel Index has increased by 30.6% [3] - The price of rebar (HRB400 20mm) is at 3,170 CNY/ton, with a weekly change of -0.9% and a year-to-date change of 7.0% [3] - Iron ore prices have increased by 1.5% to 104 USD/ton, with a year-to-date increase of 3.6% [3] Inventory - The total social inventory of five major steel products is 1,060,000 tons, with a year-to-date increase of 39.8% [5] - The total inventory at steel mills is 416,000 tons, with a year-to-date increase of 18.8% [5] - Port inventory of iron ore stands at 15,126,000 tons, with a year-to-date increase of 1.8% [5] Supply and Demand - The weekly output of five major steel products is projected to be around 1,000,000 tons [9] - The average daily pig iron production is expected to be approximately 230,000 tons [9] - The report highlights the profitability rate of steel mills, indicating a positive trend in the industry [14]

Group 1: Company Insights - The core recommendation for NetDragon (00777) is based on its dual business model of gaming and education, with significant revenue expected from its investment in the group broadcasting business [4] - Revenue projections for NetDragon from 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 4.67 billion, 4.88 billion, and 5.10 billion CNY, reflecting year-on-year changes of -22.77%, 4.45%, and 4.47% respectively [4] - The expected net profit for NetDragon during the same period is projected to be 415 million, 650 million, and 725 million CNY, with growth rates of 33.52%, 56.49%, and 11.63% respectively [4] Group 2: Industry Insights - The recommendation for Tianhe Defense (300397) highlights its potential recovery in the military sector under the "14th Five-Year Plan," with opportunities in low-altitude and deep-sea technology [5] - Revenue forecasts for Tianhe Defense from 2025 to 2027 are 522 million, 697 million, and 928 million CNY, with growth rates of 29.7%, 33.7%, and 33.1% respectively [5] - The expected net profit for Tianhe Defense during this period is projected to be 10.4 million, 26.9 million, and 60.4 million CNY, with earnings per share of 0.02, 0.05, and 0.12 CNY [5] Group 3: Macro Insights - The macroeconomic analysis indicates a reduced probability of interest rate cuts in the fourth quarter, with more substantial easing policies likely reserved for early 2026 [6][7] - The central bank's recent policy adjustments suggest that the most significant economic pressures may have passed, supporting a stable economic outlook [7] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring external factors such as U.S. inflation and its impact on monetary policy decisions in China [7] Group 4: Strategy Insights - The A-share strategy report suggests that the Shanghai Composite Index is currently in a bullish phase, with a focus on cyclical and technology growth sectors [8] - Key investment themes include technology and domestic demand, with specific attention to AI computing, robotics, solid-state batteries, photolithography, controllable nuclear fusion, deep-sea technology, and the silver economy [8] - The report maintains a neutral to optimistic outlook on the market, considering various economic and policy factors [8]