Quantitative Models and Construction - **Model Name**: Macro Scoring Model **Construction Idea**: The model evaluates macroeconomic factors to provide asset allocation signals, focusing on inflation, monetary policy, and global economic conditions[17][20] **Construction Process**: The model assigns scores to macroeconomic subcategories such as domestic and global inflation, monetary policy, and economic conditions. These scores are aggregated to generate asset-specific macro views. For example: - Domestic inflation: Score = 1 - Global inflation: Score = 0 (downward adjustment this month) - Final macro scores for October: - CSI 800: 3 - 10-year bonds: -2 - S&P 500: 2 - Gold: -1 - Oil: 3 - Copper: 3[20] **Evaluation**: The model maintains a positive outlook on equities and commodities, reflecting stable macroeconomic conditions[17][20] - **Model Name**: US Equity Timing Model **Construction Idea**: The model monitors U.S. economic indicators to assess equity market timing opportunities[21] **Construction Process**: The model uses three dimensions equally weighted: - Economic sentiment - Capital flows - Financial stress The latest composite timing indicator value is 72.3, showing improvement from the previous month[21] **Evaluation**: The model supports a bullish view on U.S. equities due to improved economic sentiment and fundamentals[21] - **Model Name**: Gold Timing Model **Construction Idea**: The model evaluates fiscal and monetary trends to determine gold allocation timing[24] **Construction Process**: The model generates a timing indicator based on fiscal deficit trends and global monetary expansion. Current indicator value: -0.63, signaling caution due to reduced U.S. fiscal deficit expansion[24] **Evaluation**: Despite the cautious signal, the model suggests gold retains strong allocation value under global fiscal expansion trends[24] - **Model Name**: Oil Timing Model **Construction Idea**: The model assesses oil market dynamics, including inventory levels and macroeconomic risks[27][29] **Construction Process**: The model calculates an oil sentiment index based on: - Inventory levels - Dollar strength - Investor expectations - Macro risk levels Current index value: 0.39, down from 0.56 last month[27][29] **Evaluation**: The model adopts a neutral stance on oil due to inventory accumulation and dollar rebound[27][29] --- Model Backtesting Results - **Macro Scoring Model**: - September return: 2.3% - 1-year return: 13.5% - Maximum drawdown: 2.9%[3][31] - **US Equity Timing Model**: - Latest indicator value: 72.3[21] - **Gold Timing Model**: - Latest indicator value: -0.63[24] - **Oil Timing Model**: - Latest sentiment index value: 0.39[27][29] --- Asset Allocation Adjustments - **Optimized Allocation**: - CSI 800: Reduced from 11.9% to 8.7% - S&P 500: Increased from 9.4% to 9.6% - Gold: Reduced from 13.5% to 7.0% - Copper: Reduced from 9.7% to 7.3% - Oil: Reduced from 3.9% to 1.9% - 10-year bonds: Increased from 34.7% to 49.8% - Short-term bonds: Reduced from 16.8% to 15.7%[36]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [4] Core Viewpoints - The overall chemical industry is experiencing increased volume but declining prices, leading to a decrease in profitability for Q3 2025. Revenue for the chemical raw materials and products industry reached 5.95 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 0.9%, while total profits fell by 5.5% to 246.1 billion yuan, resulting in a profit margin of 4.14%, the lowest in history [1][10] - The chemical products sector is under pressure, with significant differentiation among sub-industries. Price performance is better in sectors with limited capacity growth, such as refrigerants and essential fertilizers, while sectors facing overcapacity are struggling [2][22] - Future opportunities in the chemical industry are expected to arise from supply-side improvements, particularly in resource-limited sectors like phosphate and potassium fertilizers, and in new materials that can replace imports [3][49] Summary by Sections Industry Observation: Volume Increase and Price Decline - The chemical raw materials and products industry saw a revenue of 5.95 trillion yuan in the first eight months of 2025, with a profit total of 246.1 billion yuan, reflecting a 5.5% year-on-year decline. The profit margin has decreased to 4.14%, marking a historical low [1][10] - The inventory level reached 1.02 trillion yuan, with a 2.2% year-on-year increase, indicating a weak recovery in domestic demand amid external tariff impacts [1][10] Overall Pressure and Structural Differentiation - Different sub-industries are experiencing varying levels of pressure due to overcapacity. Sectors with better price performance include refrigerants and essential fertilizers, while others are struggling [2][22] - As of September 26, 2025, 29% of major chemical products saw price increases, while 68% experienced price declines. The top five products with the highest price increases included TDI and epoxy chloropropane, with increases of 25.7% and 21.4%, respectively [2][22] Industry Outlook: Favorable Sub-industries and Import Substitution - The outlook for the chemical industry is positive for sub-industries with supply constraints, such as phosphate and potassium fertilizers, and for new materials with strong demand growth potential, particularly those that can replace imports [3][49]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.3%, while the CSI 300 increased by 1.5%, and the STAR Market 50 surged by 2.9% on Thursday [4] - The best-performing sectors included non-ferrous metals (+7.6%), steel (+3.4%), coal (+3.0%), utilities (+2.6%), and electronics (+2.2%), while the worst performers were media (-1.4%), real estate (-1.4%), social services (-1.0%), automotive (-0.4%), and food & beverage (-0.3%) [4] - Total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 26,532 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 3.04 billion HKD from southbound funds [4] Key Insights - The domestic bus industry's global position is steadily improving, with King Long's export data showing significant growth and substantial profit potential [10] - Investment opportunities are identified in domestic bus manufacturers such as Yutong, King Long, and Zhongtong [10] - Catalysts for growth include better-than-expected bus export data, while risks involve slowing sales in key regions, weak domestic sales, and a slowdown in the penetration of new energy buses [10] Strategy Insights - The current market view suggests holding existing positions and waiting for adjustments before increasing allocations, particularly in the brokerage sector and real estate [7] - The market is influenced by the steady progress in US-China relations, with recent agreements potentially reducing negotiation constraints [7] - The outlook indicates a shift from valuation expansion to valuation repair, with a focus on chemical ETFs, consumer ETFs, and Hang Seng Technology ETFs [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [4] Core Views - The company has signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Nantong Zhinkang to jointly expand into the field of high-precision actuators and intelligent modules for robots [1] - The company focuses on the research and production of intelligent measurement and control systems, continuously expanding its product line, which includes structural mechanics testing systems and online monitoring systems [2] - The company plans to raise up to 150 million yuan through a private placement to upgrade its intelligent measurement and control industry and supplement working capital [3] - The projected net profits for the company from 2025 to 2027 are expected to be 160 million, 210 million, and 270 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 41, 32, and 25 times [4] Summary by Sections Strategic Cooperation - The company has established a strategic partnership with Nantong Zhinkang to enhance collaboration in the development and industrialization of robotic joint modules [1] Product Development - The company has a diverse product line including structural mechanics testing systems, online monitoring systems, and PHM systems, with a focus on expanding into humanoid robots [2] - The six-dimensional force sensor is in the small batch trial production stage, with applications in various industries including robotics and aerospace [2] Fundraising and Financial Outlook - The company aims to raise 150 million yuan, with 105 million yuan allocated for upgrading its production facilities and 45 million yuan for working capital [3] - Revenue projections indicate a growth rate of 32.79% in 2024, with steady increases in subsequent years [5] Profit Forecast - The expected net profit growth rates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 33.4%, 27.3%, and 28.4%, respectively, indicating strong profitability potential [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7] Core Insights - The company is a leading game developer specializing in SLG and classic IP, excelling in overseas game markets. Its two flagship games, "Whiteout Survival" and "Kingshot," are expected to continue exceeding expectations in terms of lifecycle and profitability, with significant revenue and profit growth anticipated [1][2] - The market perceives that the revenue from "Whiteout Survival" and "Kingshot" may peak and decline over time, but the report argues that the revenue for "Whiteout Survival" is likely to stabilize with low chances of decline, while "Kingshot" is still in its growth phase, especially with the potential from its domestic version [1][2] - The report highlights the replicability of the company's success in the "SLG+X" category, suggesting that the development and marketing experience from "Whiteout Survival" and "Kingshot" can be reused for future titles [2] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 172.07 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 85.5%, and a net profit of 26.56 billion yuan, up 129.33% year-on-year. The revenue growth was primarily driven by the strong performance of "Whiteout Survival" and "Kingshot" [13] - The company expects to maintain high revenue and profit contributions from "Whiteout Survival" and "Kingshot," with projected revenues of 424 billion yuan, 531 billion yuan, and 592 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, and net profits of 61 billion yuan, 102 billion yuan, and 116 billion yuan for the same years [5][12] Market Potential - The global SLG game market is projected to exceed 20 billion USD by 2027, indicating a strong growth trajectory following a two-year adjustment period [15] - The "SLG+X" model, which integrates additional gameplay elements into SLG games, is expected to enhance user acquisition and retention, thereby increasing long-term monetization potential [19] Future Outlook - The company is set to submit a "de-listing" application after rectifying prior accounting errors, which is expected to enhance its market position [3] - The domestic version of "Kingshot" is showing promising growth, with its ranking in the app store improving significantly, indicating strong revenue potential [22][24]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of changes in the bottom-line fundamentals, with a focus on offline retail and overseas expansion as key investment opportunities [1] - The travel sector is experiencing a recovery, with significant growth in domestic travel preferences shifting from "going to see" to "going to experience" [2] - The online travel agency (OTA) sector is benefiting from overall market growth, maintaining a stable competitive landscape despite new entrants [2] - The offline retail sector is undergoing transformation, with supermarkets expected to see profit improvements due to supply chain changes and store renovations [4][6] - The hotel industry is anticipated to reach a bottom cycle, with leading companies expected to improve operational efficiency and profitability [7] - Cross-border e-commerce is facing profit differentiation due to external factors, but platform-based companies are expected to perform steadily [8][9] - The mother and baby retail sector is benefiting from policy support and store adjustments, leading to a recovery in same-store sales [10][11] Summary by Sections Travel and Tourism - National holiday travel data met expectations, with a year-on-year increase of 7% in cross-regional travel [2] - Scenic spots saw a surge in visitors, with notable increases in tourist numbers during the holiday period [3] Offline Retail - Supermarkets are undergoing renovations, which are expected to enhance customer attraction and profitability [4] - The competitive landscape in offline retail is improving, with a shift towards quality retail [4][6] Hotel and Restaurant - The hotel sector is projected to see a recovery in RevPAR as supply stabilizes and operational efficiencies improve [7] - The restaurant sector is under pressure, but specific segments like wedding banquets are expected to perform better [7] E-commerce - Cross-border e-commerce is experiencing increased competition, but platform-based companies are expected to maintain stable performance [8][9] - The overall e-commerce sector is seeing a reduction in competitive pressure, with a focus on optimizing user experience and enhancing sales through instant retail [15][16] Mother and Baby Retail - The sector is benefiting from supportive policies and adjustments in store formats, leading to improved sales performance [10][11]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" (maintained) [7] Core Views - The report highlights that the domestic innovative drug sector is entering a phase of "engineer dividend" realization, with improved profitability and valuation breakthroughs expected [1] - The CXO sector is showing signs of recovery, with a positive outlook on CDMO commercialization orders and clinical CRO investment opportunities [2] - The upstream research sector is anticipated to benefit from a downward interest rate cycle and a recovery in global new drug development demand, with recommended stocks including Haoyuan Pharmaceutical and Bid Pharma [3] - The medical device sector is expected to experience a recovery cycle, particularly for high-value consumables and medical equipment companies, with recommendations for companies like Aikang Medical and Mindray Medical [4] - The traditional Chinese medicine sector is projected to see an earnings inflection point, with a favorable outlook for the second half of 2025 [5] - The report favors leading pharmacy chains with superior management capabilities, recommending companies such as Dazhonglin and Yifeng Pharmacy [6] - The pharmaceutical distribution sector is expected to improve, with a focus on low-positioned value and innovative business opportunities [7] Summary by Sections Innovative Drugs - Positive outlook on profitability improvement and valuation breakthroughs due to recognition by multinational corporations [1] CXO - Recovery in the sector with ongoing commercialization of small and large molecule CDMO orders [2] Upstream Research - Anticipated performance elasticity and new business expansion opportunities [3] Medical Devices - Significant growth potential in high-value consumables and medical equipment sectors [4] Traditional Chinese Medicine - Expected earnings growth and increased market interest due to improved fundamentals [5] Pharmacies - Favorable view on pharmacy chains with strong management and adaptability [6] Pharmaceutical Distribution - Positive trends in the sector with potential for operational improvements and value re-evaluation [7]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The electronic sector is expected to show both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter growth in Q3 2025, driven primarily by AI demand from cloud services and a recovery in demand for edge AI applications [1] - Domestic AI hardware is poised for growth as local cloud providers increase investments, while overseas cloud companies are optimistic about their capital expenditures for 2026 [2] - The storage sector is experiencing a supply shortage due to increased demand for HDDs and SSDs driven by AI applications, which is expected to persist [3] - The PCB segment is benefiting from seasonal demand and AI-driven upgrades, leading to potential increases in product prices and profit margins [3] - The consumer electronics chain is focused on the upcoming replacement cycle, with Apple's iPhone 17 launch expected to boost sales through improved specifications and competitive pricing [4] - The domestic semiconductor industry is seeing optimistic guidance from wafer foundries, with a continuous increase in domestic production capacity and demand from various applications [7] - The packaging and testing sector is also expected to see year-on-year growth in Q3 2025, supported by increased demand for AI chips and related hardware [8] Summary by Sections AI Hardware - Domestic AI infrastructure is recovering as local cloud providers resume server purchases, while overseas companies are optimistic about future capital expenditures [2] - The storage market is facing a significant demand gap due to the shift towards SSDs driven by AI applications [3] Consumer Electronics - The upcoming iPhone 17 launch is expected to drive sales, with improved specifications and competitive pricing strategies [4] Semiconductor Industry - Wafer foundries are projecting revenue growth, supported by increased demand from automotive electronics and networking applications [7] - The packaging and testing sector is expected to benefit from rising demand for AI-related hardware [8]

Group 1 - The macroeconomic report indicates that after the APEC meeting, market risk appetite may gradually weaken, with a focus on technology stocks [2] - The A-share strategy report suggests two potential paths for the Shanghai Composite Index: either breaking through previous highs or undergoing a range-bound consolidation before a breakout [3] - The report recommends a strategy of increasing positions during pullbacks in the index, maintaining a bullish medium-term outlook [3] Group 2 - The report highlights that the main driving factors for market movements include updates from third-quarter data and the performance of major indices during the National Day holiday [3] - It emphasizes the importance of sector allocation, particularly recommending attention to brokerage stocks and the real estate sector, which may benefit from recent positive developments [3] - The report suggests specific tactical approaches for different investment strategies, including using trend lines for operations and differentiating between short and medium-term positions [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 292 million yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 18.84%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 126 million yuan, up 36.74% year-on-year [1] - The domestic OLED development, coupled with the expansion of high-generation lines, is expected to drive terminal material demand and open up growth opportunities for the company [2] - The company's OLED materials gross margin reached 77.9% in H1 2025, an increase of 5.81% year-on-year, driven by the introduction of high-margin products and effective cost reduction [3] - The company maintains a high level of R&D investment, with R&D expenses totaling 32.07 million yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 6.91% [4] - Revenue forecasts for the company are projected to be 632 million yuan, 842 million yuan, and 1.088 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of 248 million yuan, 341 million yuan, and 445 million yuan for the same years [10][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 292 million yuan, with a net profit of 126 million yuan, reflecting strong growth in both revenue and profit margins [1] - The gross margin for OLED materials improved to 77.9%, indicating enhanced profitability through product optimization and cost management [3] Market Dynamics - The demand for OLED terminal materials grew by 31.63% year-on-year, driven by increasing applications in various sectors such as smartphones and automotive displays [2] - The company has established strong partnerships with leading panel manufacturers, enhancing its competitive position in the market [2] R&D and Innovation - The company has focused on R&D, with significant investments leading to the development of new materials and technologies, including the successful production of several key OLED materials [4] - The introduction of high-value products and continuous innovation are expected to support long-term growth [4]