Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The report highlights the recovery of demand in European markets and emerging markets, while the trade friction with the US is expected to stabilize demand due to the nature of the products being essential and less price-sensitive [1] - The report indicates that the sentiment in the export chain is likely to improve due to positive signals regarding tariffs and the anticipated interest rate cuts in the US [4][1] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the upcoming CPI data on July 15, which could influence the timing of potential interest rate cuts [4] Summary by Sections Export Direction - Focus on the recovery of demand in European lines and growth in emerging markets [1] - Trade friction with the US is expected to stabilize demand, with tariffs easing and essential products maintaining steady orders [1] Stock Price Review - As of June 28, 31 export companies have shown an average stock price increase of 0.7% since April 2, with about 32% of companies recovering to their April 2 levels [2] - Some companies, like TaoTao Automotive and Spring Power, have significantly exceeded their April 2 highs, while Giant Star Technology still has considerable valuation recovery potential [2] Key Events and Policy Expectations - Positive signals regarding tariffs are expected to alleviate sentiment pressures in the export chain [4] - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have increased, with a 74.8% probability of the first cut occurring in September [4] - The acceleration of tax reform is anticipated to boost terminal demand and corporate CAPEx investment [4] Investment Recommendations - For North America, the report recommends focusing on companies like Giant Star Technology, TaoTao Automotive, and Spring Power, among others [4] - For non-US markets, it suggests companies with both cyclical and growth potential, including Huadong Cable and Sany Heavy Industry [4]

机械设备 报告日期：2025 年 06 月 27 日 可控核聚变产业进程加速，重点关注核心设备供应商 ——可控核聚变行业点评报告 投资要点 ❑ 近期产业与融资催化不断，聚变产业关注度持续提升 证券研究报告 | 行业点评 | 机械设备 1、目前处于工程可行性验证阶段。中国核能三步走："热堆（压水堆）-快堆-聚变 堆"，聚变是理想终极能源。可控核聚变技术路线：实验堆-工程堆/示范堆-商业堆， 目前处于工程验证阶段。 2、我国可控核聚变路线图：2030s 建成 CFEDR 工程堆，2050s 建成 PFPP 原型电 站。我国 2030's 年建成 CFEDR 工程堆的技术路径与里程碑已取得显著进展， CRAFT 工程作为其关键技术保障，总体进度已达 70%； 3、国内核聚变堆主要由中核集团、中物院、中科院等科研院所领头，从实现"聚 变反应"向"工程化"转化。 ❑ 投资建议：重点关注受益 ITER 项目交付及国内新实验堆建设的核心设备供应商 中游设备：联创光电、国光电气、旭光电子、安泰科技、英杰电气（PSM 电源 等）、合锻智能、王子新材、雪人股份、弘讯科技、派克新材、四创电子。 上游材料：西部超导、永鼎股份、精达股 ...

Group 1: Industrial Profit Trends - In the first five months of 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises reached CNY 27,204.3 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1%[2] - The profit growth rate slowed down, with May showing a significant decline of 9.1% year-on-year[2] - The impact of short-term investment income fluctuations is evident, with a 1.7 percentage point drop in profit growth attributed to high base effects from the previous year[2] Group 2: Policy and Sector Contributions - The "Two New" policies have positively influenced profit recovery, with general and specialized equipment industries seeing profit increases of 10.6% and 7.1% respectively, contributing 0.6 percentage points to overall industrial profit growth[3] - New energy and high-tech manufacturing sectors showed strong profit growth, with electronics and electrical machinery sectors growing by 39.3% and 26.7% respectively[3] Group 3: Demand and Pricing Dynamics - Industrial producer prices fell by 3.3% year-on-year in May 2025, indicating low effective demand relative to supply, which continues to pressure profit growth[4] - The revenue profit margin for industrial enterprises was 4.97% in the first five months, slightly lower than the previous year by 0.19 percentage points[4] Group 4: Future Outlook and Risks - Industrial profit growth is expected to improve slightly in the second half of 2025, with an annual growth forecast of 2.1%[10] - The ongoing U.S. tariff war poses a manageable risk to overall industrial profits, but certain light industries are under significant pressure due to their high export dependency[6][8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Insights - The company is actively researching stablecoin-related digital solutions and seeking partners for potential collaboration in stablecoin issuance and operation [1][17] - The company has accumulated relevant technology and experience in stablecoin operations, with overseas revenue reaching 129 million, accounting for 7.43% of total revenue in 2024 [2][23] - Stablecoins are recognized for their importance in enhancing payment efficiency and the status of fiat currencies, with significant implications for the internationalization of the RMB [3][42] Summary by Sections Section 1: Technology Accumulation and Overseas Experience - The company is engaged in the development of digital solutions for stablecoins and is exploring partnerships for issuance and operation [1][17] - It has extensive experience in building systems for stablecoin operations, having successfully implemented projects in Southeast Asia [2][21] - Major tech companies are entering the stablecoin space, which may present opportunities for the company [26] Section 2: Strategic Significance of Stablecoins - Stablecoins are transforming global payment methods, significantly reducing cross-border transaction costs and settlement times [3][34] - The dominance of USD-pegged stablecoins in the market enhances the influence of the US dollar globally, with implications for the RMB's internationalization [3][42] Section 3: Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company’s revenue is projected to reach 1.999 billion, 2.334 billion, and 2.695 billion from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding net profits of 116 million, 164 million, and 206 million [4][12] - The projected P/E ratios for 2025-2027 are 126.26, 88.92, and 70.87, respectively [4][12]

Core Viewpoints - Despite a turbulent external environment, domestic economic growth is likely to exceed 5% in the first half of the year [1][29] - The market is expected to welcome clearer trading opportunities in July, with increased uncertainty and potential for amplified market volatility [1][29] - There is a recommendation to focus on mid and small-cap stocks, particularly in the financial, growth, and consumer sectors, with an emphasis on banks, brokerages, and TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) [1][5] Market Style Rotation - The market style is shifting towards mid and small-cap stocks, with mid-cap stocks expected to outperform small and large-cap stocks [2][12] - Valuation styles show no significant difference between value and growth indices, indicating a balanced distribution of growth and value styles [2][12] - The industry style ranking suggests that consumption, finance, and growth sectors are expected to outperform, while dividend styles rank lower [2][12] Industry Allocation - The banking sector is viewed as a stabilizing force, while brokerages are expected to find their rhythm, and there is a bullish outlook on TMT [3][5] - Key industries to watch include banks, which are benefiting from asset scarcity and new regulations, brokerages with low valuations and high potential, media driven by short drama trends, and electronics benefiting from semiconductor sales cycles [3][5] Calendar Effect - Historical data from 2010 to 2024 indicates that mid-cap growth styles tend to outperform in July [4][12] - The performance of various indices shows that mid-cap growth indices like the CSI 500 and STAR Market 50 have historically had better outcomes compared to small-cap indices [4][12] Next Month's Sector Allocation Recommendations - The report suggests a focus on financial and technology sectors, with a positive outlook on mid and small-cap stocks [5][29] - The anticipated market dynamics will revolve around internal policy developments, mid-year earnings disclosures, and external changes, which may lead to increased market volatility [5][29]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.2%, the CSI 300 decreased by 0.4%, the STAR Market 50 dropped by 0.6%, the CSI 1000 declined by 0.5%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.7%. The Hang Seng Index also fell by 0.6% [4] - The best-performing sectors on Thursday were banking (+1.0%), telecommunications (+0.8%), defense and military industry (+0.6%), social services (+0.4%), and oil and petrochemicals (+0.3%). The worst-performing sectors included automotive (-1.4%), non-bank financials (-1.2%), pharmaceutical and biotechnology (-1%), beauty and personal care (-1%), and steel (-0.8%) [4] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 15,832 billion, with a net inflow of 5.29 billion Hong Kong dollars from southbound funds [4] Company Insights XCMG Machinery (000425) - On May 15, XCMG delivered 100 units of fully electric unmanned mining trucks to Huaneng Yimin Open-pit Coal Mine for operation [5] - The company is expanding its mining machinery footprint, continuously breaking through with key clients [5] - Investment opportunities include the official operation of 100 unmanned electric mining trucks, positioning the company towards becoming a global leader in construction machinery [5] - Catalysts for growth include exceeding order expectations, higher-than-expected growth in real estate, infrastructure, and mining investments, and continuous breakthroughs with clients [5] Media and Internet Industry - With the summer season approaching, 94 films have been scheduled for release, indicating a rise in both quantity and quality, which is expected to lead to a significant year-on-year increase in box office revenue [6] - The export of television dramas with romantic themes is anticipated to generate substantial growth, while interactive film and game sectors are emerging as potential high-return opportunities with low costs [6] - Investment opportunities in the film sector include companies like Maoyan Entertainment, Guomai Culture, Alibaba Pictures, Light Media, and Huayi Brothers; in the television drama sector, companies like Zhangyue Technology and Huace Film & TV are highlighted; and in the interactive film and game sector, companies like Huanrui Century and Shanghai Film are noted [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Standing at the end of June and looking forward to July, investors' consensus on the bond market may have shifted to going long on long - term and ultra - long - term bonds. The increase in the proportion of bullish sentiment indicates a higher possibility of a stronger bond market. The capital market remains the core concern of investors, and their preference for medium - and low - grade and high - grade urban investment bonds has marginally weakened [1]. - Four mainstream expectations for the July bond market from investors are summarized based on the survey: the expected range of long - term Treasury yields is concentrated, showing a "ceiling and floor" state; the bullish sentiment in the bond market is rising, corresponding to the current relatively strong market; external factors may have limited impact on the macro - economy, and investors' overall expectation of the second - quarter economy has improved, with limited possibility of short - term monetary policy easing, while monetary policy and the capital market remain the core concerns; due to the front - running market in June, investors' consensus may have shifted to going long on long - term and ultra - long - term bonds, and the proportion of those bullish on ultra - long and long - term interest - rate bonds has increased significantly compared to the June survey [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Questionnaire Background - A bond market questionnaire "How to view the July bond market?" was released on June 24, 2025, targeting the main concerns of the June 2025 bond market. By 17:00 on June 25, 245 valid questionnaires were received, covering various institutional and individual investors [8]. 3.2 Expectations for Treasury Yields - **10 - year Treasury Yields**: 47% of investors think the lower limit of the 10 - year Treasury yield will fall within 1.55% - 1.60%, and 27% think it will fall within 1.50% - 1.55%. 68% believe the upper limit will not exceed 1.70%. The probability of the 10 - year Treasury rate breaking below 1.6% is increasing [10]. - **30 - year Treasury Yields**: Over 64% of investors think the lower limit of the 30 - year Treasury yield will fall within 1.80% - 1.90%, and about 45% think the upper limit will fall within 1.75% - 1.80%. Investors' expectation of continuous oscillation of the 30 - year Treasury yield has been strengthened [12]. 3.3 Economic Outlook - Regarding the second - quarter economic trend, 12% of investors are optimistic, 23% think it will be "year - on - year recovery, month - on - month in line with seasonality", 35% think it will be "year - on - year recovery, month - on - month weaker than seasonality", and 30% are relatively pessimistic. Overall, investors' expectation of the second - quarter economy has improved, and the proportion of pessimistic expectations has decreased from 39% to 30% [13][16]. 3.4 Monetary Policy Expectations - **降准**: 20% of investors think there will be no more reserve requirement ratio cuts this year, 50% think the next cut may be in the third quarter, and 25% think it will be postponed to the fourth quarter. - **降息**: 17% of investors think there will be no more interest rate cuts this year, nearly 50% think the next cut may be in the third quarter, and 33% think it will be postponed to the fourth quarter. The game around monetary policy may continue [17]. 3.5 Impact of Geopolitical Events - 67% of investors think the Israel - Iran conflict will have limited impact on the domestic bond market. Those who think it may have an impact mostly believe it may trigger a global risk - aversion sentiment, pushing funds into the gold and Treasury markets and lowering bond yields [18]. 3.6 Market Trend and Operation - **Market Trend**: 70% of investors think the bond market will strengthen in July, with 33% expecting a bull - steepening yield curve and 37% expecting a bull - flattening yield curve. Due to the front - running market in June, investors' consensus has shifted to going long on long - term and ultra - long - term bonds, and institutional investors' clustering may boost the market [23]. - **Operation**: 55% of investors think they should keep their positions stable, 14% think they should hold cash and wait for a callback to add positions, 11% think they can start adding positions, 16% think they should take profits and reduce positions, and about 4% think they should reduce duration to control risks [24]. 3.7 Preferred Bond Types - Ultra - long and long - term interest - rate bonds are the most favored by investors, while the preference for medium - and low - grade urban investment bonds has declined [26]. 3.8 Bond Pricing Logic - Monetary policy and the capital market are still the core concerns of bond investors. Investors' attention to institutional behavior games has increased, while their attention to the performance of the equity market has decreased marginally [29].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [8] Core Viewpoints - The summer film season is expected to see a significant rebound in box office performance due to a low base effect from 2024, with a projected increase in ticket sales driven by high-quality content and a diverse lineup of films [13][22] - The interactive gaming and film sector shows immense potential, with low production costs and the ability to generate high returns, exemplified by the success of "Emotional Fraud Simulator," which quickly topped sales charts [3][24] - The report highlights the successful strategy of using Chinese actors and Mandarin dubbing for overseas platforms to circumvent domestic policy restrictions, opening new markets for content [2][22] Summary by Sections 1. Market Recovery Trends - The summer box office for 2025 has already surpassed 1 billion yuan as of June 19, indicating a strong start compared to the previous year [13] - The number of films scheduled for release in the summer season has increased to 94, with a notable rise in both quantity and quality [17] 2. Film Sector Insights - Key films scheduled for release include "Longan's Lychee" (July 25) with a projected box office of 5.5-12 billion yuan and "The Nameless" sequel (July 5) expected to earn 6-10 billion yuan [4][5] - The report predicts that headliner films will contribute 50%-60% of the total box office, with mid-tier and surprise hits filling the remaining share [5] 3. Television and Short Drama Market - The short drama segment has become a core revenue driver for companies like Zhangyue Technology, with a 189.99% year-on-year growth in related revenue [32] - The export of "Danmei" dramas is highlighted as a growing trend, with significant international viewership and engagement [22] 4. Interactive Film and Game Sector - The interactive gaming sector is characterized by low production costs and high potential for unexpected hits, with "Emotional Fraud Simulator" achieving rapid success [3][24] - Upcoming titles like "Emotional Fraud Simulator 2" are anticipated to capitalize on the current market momentum [25] 5. Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies in the film sector include Guomai Culture, Light Media, Alibaba Pictures, and Maoyan Entertainment, while the television sector highlights Zhangyue Technology and Huace Film & TV [6][26] - The interactive gaming sector suggests focusing on companies like Huanrui Century and Shanghai Film [6][36]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the uranium production from China General Nuclear Power Corporation (CGN) is projected to have a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.88% from 2024 to 2027, indicating a robust growth outlook for the company [5] - The pricing mechanism for CGN's sales contracts has been updated, with the base price portion decreasing from 40% to 30% for the 2026-2028 period, while the base price remains significantly higher than previous levels, which is expected to enhance the company's performance [5] Summary by Sections Uranium Resource and Production - CGN's uranium equity resource amounts to 24,289 tons, with projected production for 2024 to 2027 as follows: 1,324 tons in 2024, 1,338 tons in 2025, 1,438 tons in 2026, and 1,617 tons in 2027 [4] - The average realized selling price for uranium is expected to rise from $75.04 per pound in 2024 to $85.42 per pound in 2027 [4] Pricing Mechanism - The base price for CGN's sales contracts is set at $94.22 per pound for the 2026-2028 period, which is significantly higher than the previous pricing levels [5] - The average spot price for uranium is projected to remain stable at around $80 per pound from 2024 to 2026 [4]

Market Overview - On June 25, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.04%, the CSI 300 increased by 1.44%, the STAR 50 gained 1.73%, the CSI 1000 was up by 1.32%, the ChiNext Index surged by 3.11%, and the Hang Seng Index climbed by 1.23% [5] - The best-performing sectors on June 25 were non-bank financials (+4.46%), defense and military industry (+3.36%), computer sector (+2.99%), electric equipment (+1.66%), and retail (+1.57%). The worst-performing sectors included coal (-1%), oil and petrochemicals (-0.57%), transportation (-0.21%), beauty and personal care (+0.18%), and food and beverage (+0.25%) [5] - The total trading volume for the A-share market on June 25 was 16,395.06 billion, with a net inflow of 9.573 billion HKD from southbound funds [5] Key Insights Real Estate Sector - The core viewpoint emphasizes selecting the best quality real estate companies at the bottom of the cycle, highlighting the anti-cyclical nature of commercial operations and property management [6] - Market perception indicates ongoing downward risks in the real estate sector, with concerns over the growth potential of commercial operations and property management companies [6] - The report suggests that the continuous increase in second-hand housing transactions and the initial recovery of new housing prices indicate a potential market rebound, maintaining the stance of selecting high-quality real estate firms [6] - Key driving factors include the introduction of real estate stimulus policies such as interest rate cuts and support for urban village projects, alongside an unexpected recovery in market volume and prices [6] Precious Metals Sector - The main narrative for the long-term bull market in gold is driven by the decline of the US dollar's credit [7] - Historical analysis suggests that as long as crises persist, bull markets will continue [7] - Investment opportunities are identified in high-cost gold mines entering a profit release cycle, with recommendations to focus on companies like Shandong Gold (H+A shares), Chifeng Jilong Gold, and Tongguan Gold [8] - Catalysts for this sector include the ongoing decline of the US dollar's credit [8]