Group 1: Economic Development Goals - The primary goal for the 14th Five-Year Plan is to achieve significant results in high-quality development, emphasizing the continuation of current policies and economic structure transformation[1][2] - The implicit economic growth target for the 15th Five-Year Plan is likely set around 4.5%, based on experiences from the 13th and 14th Five-Year Plans[1][2] Group 2: Technological Independence - Accelerating high-level technological self-reliance is a key focus, with policies centered around new productive forces amid global changes and U.S.-China competition[3] - Support for nine future industries and addressing "bottleneck" areas are essential for achieving technological independence[3] Group 3: Manufacturing Sector - Maintaining a reasonable proportion of the manufacturing sector is crucial, with a focus on advanced manufacturing as the backbone of a modern industrial system[4][13] - The emphasis is on integrating high-tech advancements into traditional manufacturing to enhance competitiveness[4][13] Group 4: Investment Strategies - The report highlights the need for a combination of investments in physical infrastructure and human capital to stimulate domestic demand[5][7] - Investment in human capital is seen as a key driver for demand, especially in the context of shifting economic structures and reduced cyclical effects from real estate[7] Group 5: Market Economy and Openness - Building a high-level market economy involves promoting the organic combination of institutional advantages and market mechanisms[8] - Expanding high-level openness focuses on mutual benefits and integrating domestic rules with global trade standards[8]

Core Insights - The report studies a paper titled "(Re-)Imag(in)ing Price Trends," which presents a method for K-line image recognition and trend prediction based on convolutional neural networks (CNN), aiming to localize this approach for the domestic market [1] Group 1: Research Background - The paper automates the visual analysis process of K-line charts, addressing limitations in traditional financial models that rely on subjective human experience [11][14] - The innovative approach utilizes machine learning to discover predictive patterns from data without pre-setting specific models, aligning more closely with how traders analyze charts [11][14] Group 2: Model Essence - The first step involves generating standardized K-line technical charts from historical market data, utilizing daily frequency data from the CRSP database covering 1993-2019 [11][12] - The CNN model is designed to automatically extract local features through convolution and pooling operations, with a focus on predicting future return directions rather than precise values [14][18] Group 3: Empirical Results - The model demonstrates strong predictive accuracy, achieving a 53.3% accuracy rate for predicting 20-day returns, significantly outperforming random guessing [19][20] - In portfolio construction, a long-short strategy based on 20-day images yields an annualized Sharpe ratio of 2.2, far exceeding traditional momentum strategies [22][24] Group 4: Practical Application - The model's transferability is validated, showing that a model trained on U.S. stocks can be applied to 26 other countries, often outperforming locally trained models [25][28] - Initial applications in the domestic market using data from 20 major ETFs since 2020 achieved a classification accuracy of 55.3%, indicating the model's ability to extract valuable information from K-line images [37][39] Group 5: Investment Practice - The report proposes a localized model construction process, emphasizing the importance of data diversity to avoid overfitting and enhance the model's learning capabilities [35][36] - The model's design includes data cleaning, standardization, and the generation of 2D images from raw price-volume data, followed by training using a deep learning framework [36][37]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The anti - fall asset spectrum during the bond market adjustment period is: Treasury bonds > Certificates of deposit > Urban investment bonds > Bank perpetual bonds > Bank secondary capital bonds. Low - grade urban investment bonds sometimes show resilience beyond their credit ratings in liquidity - driven adjustments, and investors can return to the coupon strategy under liquidity pressure [1]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Bond Market Adjustment Review and Core Driving Factors - The bond market generally shows a characteristic of "long bull and short bear". In recent years, the bond market yield has been oscillating downward, but there have been several sharp market drops. Since 2020, the bond market has experienced six significant adjustments. Except for the large - scale and long - lasting adjustment in 2020, during the other five adjustments, the adjustment range of the 10Y Treasury bond yield was generally concentrated between 10 - 30bp, and the adjustment duration was concentrated between 10 - 30 days [2][13]. - The core driving factors of the six adjustments can be summarized into three categories: - Monetary policy and liquidity drive (e.g., May 2020, August 2023, February 2025): Central bank actively tightens or marginally tightens liquidity, rapid increase in capital interest rates, or supply shocks and credit events leading to liquidity stratification. Short - term interest rates usually rise more than long - term ones, and the yield curve flattens bearishly [17]. - Economic growth and inflation expectation drive (e.g., February 2022): Macro - economic data such as PMI and credit are better than expected, or there is significant inflation pressure (PPI, CPI). The market forms a solid consensus of "fundamental improvement", which is the core signal of the bull - to - bear transition. Long - term interest rates rise more significantly, and the term spread may widen [27]. - Policy drive (e.g., September 2024): Caused by major policies such as real estate and epidemic prevention or external events such as trade tariffs, the market's economic expectation for the future changes fundamentally, and funds flow from safe - haven assets to risk assets [28]. 2. Anti - fall Asset Selection Matrix under Different Driving Factors - Credit bonds are afraid of liability - side shocks, and interest - rate bonds are afraid of fundamental repair expectations. When institutional behavior dominates, interest - rate bonds are more anti - fall; when fundamental repair expectations dominate, credit bonds are relatively more anti - fall [29]. - **Monetary policy and liquidity drive (e.g., August 2023, February 2025)**: The anti - fall degree of various assets (the smaller the yield increase, the more anti - fall) is: Low - grade urban investment bonds (short - term) > Treasury bonds (medium - long - term) > Certificates of deposit ≈ High - grade urban investment bonds (short - term) > Perpetual and secondary capital bonds (all terms). Under liquidity shocks, low - grade urban investment bonds and interest - rate bonds, especially medium - long - term Treasury bonds, are the most anti - fall. Certificates of deposit have a medium adjustment range as they are directly affected by capital interest rates. Perpetual and secondary capital bonds have the most severe adjustment and are the most vulnerable due to their duration and liquidity premium risks [3][29]. - **Multiple factors such as policy drive + economic growth and inflation expectation (e.g., August 2022, September 2024)**: The anti - fall degree of assets is: Treasury bonds (short - term) > Certificates of deposit > Treasury bonds (medium - long - term) > High - grade perpetual/urban investment bonds > Low - grade perpetual bonds > Low - grade urban investment bonds. Short - term Treasury bonds and certificates of deposit are relatively insensitive to changes in risk appetite. Long - term interest - rate bonds are significantly adjusted due to improved fundamental expectations. Credit bonds, especially low - grade ones, have the largest adjustment range, and funds flow from low - grade credit bonds to risk assets such as equities. Overall, Treasury bonds > Certificates of deposit > Urban investment bonds > Bank perpetual bonds > Bank secondary capital bonds. Low - grade urban investment bonds can attract some investors to adopt the coupon strategy in the liquidity pressure stage due to their relatively high coupon income, thus showing better anti - fall characteristics than high - grade credit bonds in some periods [4][30]. 3. Summary of Common Characteristics of Anti - fall Assets and Investment Suggestions - Assets with strong anti - fall ability generally have higher liquidity, lower duration risk, and stronger safe - haven attributes. The anti - fall ability of low - grade urban investment bonds partly comes from their "high coupon" feature. In periods of high volatility and uncertainty, some investors turn to the "coupon strategy" [37]. - **Investment suggestions**: - Predict the decline space based on driving factors. Find 1 - 2 adjustments with the most similar driving factors, macro - environment, and market structure from historical reviews as a "reference". When expecting liquidity tightening or institutional behavior shocks, significantly shorten the portfolio duration and increase the allocation of certificates of deposit [39]. - Choose to take profits in time based on odds factors. The assets with the largest adjustment in a sharp bond market decline are often those that were over - bought due to crowded trading, such as short - term interest - rate bonds from January to February this year [39]. - Build a "core - satellite" asset portfolio: Use interest - rate bonds and certificates of deposit as the core ballast to provide anti - fall ability during bond market adjustments, and use perpetual and secondary capital bonds and urban investment bonds to seek higher coupons and excess returns [39]. - Use perpetual and secondary capital bonds as the "reverse indicator" of the market: They are both a signal of market over - optimism and risk accumulation when their spreads narrow significantly and trading is crowded, and an early indicator of market adjustment, suggesting reducing risk assets and switching to a defensive mode [39]. - Use the low - grade urban investment bond coupon strategy as a buffer for fluctuations: In the stage of rising market volatility without systematic credit risk, carefully select short - to - medium - term low - grade urban investment bonds with reliable cash flows, and adopt the "buy and hold to maturity" strategy to obtain high coupons. In the current market environment where the downward space of interest rates is limited and volatility is increasing, the allocation value of the coupon strategy is prominent [40].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - By comparing the development paths of the past five typical bull markets and the current one, it is found that when the underlying logic of the main - line sectors in a bull market remains unchanged, the market has strong sustainability, obvious excess gains, and new opportunities are brewing during adjustments. Investors are advised to seize the adjustment window period and choose the right time to layout by judging the logical smoothness of sub - industries [1]. - Economic stimulus policies are often the starting gun for a bull market. Policy shifts catalyze investors' expectations of future liquidity easing and long - term economic improvement, leading to an initial increase in market risk appetite and valuation. Industry prosperity and corporate fundamentals determine the main line of the market, and the main - line sectors are those with the most improvement expectations and policy benefits [3][11]. - Main - line sectors usually have several common characteristics: supported by top - level policies with sustainable prosperity stories; strong capital consensus with rapid and concentrated allocation of foreign, public, and leveraged funds; strong market sustainability, with significant multiple growth in gains, outperforming the market index, and internal diffusion within the sector [3][17]. - In a bull market, there are also non - main - line sectors that rise with the market. Their rise is mainly due to the inflow of funds and the increase in overall market risk appetite, with lagging start, lower gains, and poor sustainability [18]. - In a bull market, choice is more important than timing. During the adjustment period of the main - line sectors, if the adjustment is due to external shocks without changing the long - term development trend, it may be a new layout opportunity; if it is due to the industry entering the mature stage, wait for the valuation to return to a reasonable level and find sub - sectors with moats. As long as the underlying logic of the main - line sectors remains unchanged, funds will flow back after the short - term switch [2][19]. - If the fundamental logic of the main - line sectors is shaken, it may mean the end of the market. Currently, the technology sector is the main line of the current bull market. Although affected by tariff disturbances, investors should seize the adjustment window to re - layout [20]. - The convertible bond market generally follows the equity market. It can have independent bull markets when there is a systematic inflow of convertible bond funds, such as in 2022 and from July to August 2025 [20][22]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Past Bull Market Reviews - A - share market in the past 20 years can be divided into six typical bull markets: 2005 - 2007 (dominated by cyclical products), 2008 - 2009 (triggered by the "Four - Trillion" plan), 2013 - 2015 (driven by the mobile Internet), 2016 - 2017 (under the supply - side reform), 2019 - 2021 (led by consumption upgrade and new energy), and 2024 - present (guided by a new round of technological revolution) [9][11][12]. - During these bull markets, different main - line sectors emerged, such as cyclical products in the first round, financial and infrastructure sectors in the second round, TMT in the third round, large - cap stocks in the fourth round, and consumer and new - energy - related sectors in the fifth round. In the current sixth round, it is the new - quality productivity represented by computing power, semiconductors, and robots [12]. - The representative index gains of the six bull markets vary. For example, the WanDe QuanA index had a 583% increase in the first round (2005.07 - 2007.10), a 136% increase in the second round (2008.11 - 2009.07), etc. The main - line sectors generally had higher gains than non - main - line sectors [13][15]. 2. Current Market Situation - The technology sector is the main line of the current bull market, which has experienced different stages since September 24, 2024. Affected by tariff disturbances, market risk appetite has adjusted, and funds have flowed to defensive sectors such as dividend stocks. However, the underlying logic of the technology sector remains smooth, and investors should seize the adjustment opportunity to re - enter the market [20]. - The convertible bond market has had two independent bull markets, in 2022 and from July to August 2025, which were driven by the inflow of funds [20][22].

Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The currency-credit model is significant for asset allocation in a specific historical period, but with the internal transformation of the economic development model, a new way of thinking and investment framework is needed to view the new market trends of the bond and equity markets [1][3][31]. - The Merrill Lynch Investment Clock has limitations in practical application, and the Chinese version - the currency-credit model - has emerged, but it also faces the problem of weakened applicability due to economic changes [1][2][28]. Summary by Directory 1. Reexamine the Merrill Lynch Investment Clock and the Currency-Credit Model - **Merrill Lynch Investment Clock**: It is a typical framework for asset allocation, dividing the macro - economy into four quadrants based on growth and inflation. However, it has limitations such as low data frequency, time lag, and difficulty in accurately grasping cycle inflection points in real - world trading [1][11][12]. - **Growth and Inflation Cyclical Weakening in China**: Since 2012, the cyclical nature of China's economic growth (GDP) and inflation (CPI) has significantly weakened, causing the classic Merrill Lynch Investment Clock to be "ill - adapted" to the Chinese market [13]. - **Currency - Credit Model**: It is a Chinese - version of the Merrill Lynch Investment Clock, dividing the macro - economy from the currency and credit dimensions. It corresponds to the four stages of the Merrill Lynch Investment Clock and presents different asset performance in different stages. It innovatively incorporates liquidity factors into asset pricing [2][15][22]. - **Differences in Asset Pricing Logic**: The Merrill Lynch Investment Clock follows a top - down macro logic, while the currency - credit model uses the credit cycle to reflect the macro - economy and incorporates the currency cycle for a more comprehensive asset pricing [22]. - **Applicability Differences**: The Merrill Lynch Investment Clock is more suitable for the relatively mature capital markets in Europe and the United States, while the currency - credit model is more adaptable to the domestic investment environment. For example, the currency - credit model can better explain the 2015 equity market bull market [23]. - **Limitations of the Currency - Credit Model**: Due to the transformation of China's economic growth model, the currency - credit model may face weakened applicability. After 2008, investment became a key driver, and credit cycles were important. After 2020, consumption gradually replaced the credit cycle as an important indicator of economic prosperity [28][29].

Market Overview - On October 22, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.07%, the CSI 300 decreased by 0.33%, the STAR Market 50 dropped by 0.06%, the CSI 1000 declined by 0.43%, the ChiNext Index fell by 0.79%, and the Hang Seng Index decreased by 0.94% [4] - The best-performing sectors on October 22 were Oil & Petrochemicals (+1.58%), Banking (+0.97%), Home Appliances (+0.82%), Real Estate (+0.75%), and Media (+0.59%). The worst-performing sectors were Non-ferrous Metals (-1.36%), Power Equipment (-1.29%), Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry and Fishery (-1.19%), Defense and Military Industry (-1.17%), and Coal (-1.03%) [4] - The total trading volume of the A-share market on October 22 was 1,690.3 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 10.018 billion Hong Kong dollars from southbound funds [4] Company Analysis: China Telecom (601728) - On October 21, 2025, China Telecom released its third-quarter report, showing a revenue growth of 0.6% year-on-year for the first three quarters, with service revenue increasing by 0.9% and net profit attributable to shareholders rising by 5.0% [5] - In the third quarter alone, revenue decreased by 0.9% year-on-year, while service revenue grew by 0.5%. Revenue from terminal products fell by 18.0%, but this had a limited impact on profits. New businesses such as AI computing power continued to grow rapidly [5] - IDC revenue increased by 9.1% year-on-year, with a notable acceleration in growth compared to the first half of 2025 (+7.4%). Smart revenue surged by 62.3%, satellite communication revenue grew by 23.5%, and quantum revenue skyrocketed by 134.6% [5] - Investment opportunities are highlighted by the dual attributes of dividends and computing power, with AI driving increased demand for computing power [5]

证券研究报告 | 公司点评 | 摩托车及其他 涛涛车业(301345) 报告日期：2025 年 10 月 22 日 单三季度业绩同比增长 121%，北美休闲车龙头有望强者恒强 ——涛涛车业点评报告 投资要点 ❑ 事件：公司发布 2025 年三季报，单三季度利润增长提速（归母净利润同比增长 121%） 1）2025 年前三季度，公司实现营业收入 27.7 亿元，同比增长 25%；实现归母净利润 6.1 亿元，同比增长 101%。前三季度加权 ROE 为 18.1%，同比提升 8.0pct；销售净利率为 21.9%，同比提升 8.0pct；销售毛利率为 42.3%，同比提升 6.0pct。 2）单三季度，公司实现营业收入 10.6 亿元，同比增长 28%；实现归母净利润 2.6 亿元， 同比增长 121%。单三季度 ROE 为 7.9%，同比提升 3.9pct；销售净利率为 25.0%，同比提 升 10.6pct；销售毛利率为 46.1%，同比提升 9.1pct。 ❑ 9 月 20 日公司发布公告称拟发行 H 股 公司拟首次公开发行 H 股股票并在香港联交所主板上市，以推动公司全球化战略布局、 提升国际品牌影响力 ...

证券研究报告 | 公司更新 | 汽车零部件 乘用车座椅获新定点，积极布局低空经济 ——天成自控更新报告 投资要点 ❑ 乘用车座椅：量价齐升，已斩获国内某头部新能车企定点，座椅产业链完整 （1）24 年实现量价齐升：销量同增 64%，ASP 同增 36%。 （2）25 年获得多个座椅总成定点。公司 25M9 获得国内某头部新能源车企乘用 车座椅总成项目的定点，项目预计于 26M6 开始量产，预计项目周期（3 年）内 配套乘用车总量为 54 万辆，据我们测算，项目预计将总计贡献约 17 亿营收。此 外，25M6，子公司郑州天成成为国内知名车企乘用车座椅总成项目定点供应 商，配套乘用车总量 7.56 万辆。 （3）公司具有完整的座椅产业链，并实现核心零部件自制。根据投资者关系活 动记录中披露，目前公司已实现座椅骨架、座椅核心件（滑轨、调角器、调高 泵）、海绵发泡、总装等全产业链的全面覆盖，已自主成功开发包括滑轨、调角 器、调高泵、电机等核心部件，并实现核心零部件自制。 ❑ 飞机座椅：海外子公司已获 EASE 与 FAA 认证，积极布局低空经济 （1）海外子公司已获 EASA、FAA 双重认证，单通道商务舱座椅获多家 ...

Market Overview - On October 21, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.36%, the CSI 300 increased by 1.53%, the STAR 50 climbed by 2.81%, the CSI 1000 went up by 1.45%, the ChiNext Index surged by 3.02%, and the Hang Seng Index gained 0.65% [6] - The best-performing sectors on October 21 were telecommunications (+4.9%), electronics (+3.5%), construction decoration (+2.36%), comprehensive (+2.29%), and real estate (+2.25%). The worst-performing sectors included coal (-1.02%), food and beverage (+0.23%), transportation (+0.29%), beauty and personal care (+0.31%), and banking (+0.33%) [6] - The total trading volume for the A-share market on October 21 was 1,892.693 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 1.171 billion Hong Kong dollars from southbound funds [6] Key Recommendations - The report highlights Zhongrun Optical (688307) as a leading domestic brand in high-magnification optical zoom lenses, expanding into new fields such as drones and mobile robots. The company is expected to double its performance due to industry growth and increased market share from domestic replacements [7][8] - The report argues against the prevailing market view that new downstream products will only provide temporary boosts to the optical lens industry, asserting that the long-term outlook remains positive due to factors such as import substitution and the company's unique technological capabilities [7] - The target price for Zhongrun Optical is set at 66.27 yuan, with projected revenues of 660 million yuan, 1,170 million yuan, and 1,645 million yuan for 2025-2027, reflecting growth rates of 45%, 77%, and 44% respectively [8] Important Insights - The macroeconomic report anticipates a slight decline in economic growth to 4.7% in the fourth quarter, with an overall growth target of around 5% for the year, despite challenges [10] - The report emphasizes that there may be additional stimulus policies in the fourth quarter, with significant measures potentially being reserved for the first quarter of the following year to ensure a strong start [10] Industry Analysis - The medical device industry is expected to see accelerated innovation and international expansion, particularly in areas such as cardiac intervention, biological materials, and surgical robots. Companies like United Imaging Healthcare and Mindray Medical are highlighted as key players [11] - The report identifies catalysts for growth in the medical device sector, including moderate price reductions, the recovery of tenders, and the acceleration of new product launches [11]

证券研究报告 | 行业点评 | 工程机械 工程机械 报告日期：2025 年 10 月 21 日 卡特收购矿业软件公司 RPMGlobal，重视矿山机械投资机会 ——工程机械行业点评报告 事件：当地时间 10 月 12 日，卡特彼勒宣布达成协议，收购澳大利亚软件公司 RPMGlobal。 投资要点 ❑ 卡特宣布收购矿业软件公司 RPMGlobal，以强化矿业软件布局 卡特彼勒当地时间 10 月 12 日宣布达成协议，收购澳大利亚软件公司 RPMGlobal，交易预计于 2026 年第一季度完成。根据计划条款，RPM 股东将有 权获得每股 5 澳元现金，该计划对价对应股权价值 11.2 亿澳元（约合 7.3 亿美 元）。RPMGlobal 是唯一一家在澳大利亚证券交易所上市的矿业软件公司。 矿企资本开支和主要金属价格走势正相关性较强。2025 年以来金、银、铜价格 分别上涨 62%、76%、22%（2025 年 1 月 1 日-2025 年 10 月 20 日）。主要金属 价格持续上涨，有望支撑下游矿企资本开支景气上行。 据 Precedence Research，2023 年全球矿山机械市场规模为 1191.2 ...