证券研究报告 | 宏观专题研究 | 中国宏观 逆周期与跨周期结合发力 ──中央经济工作会议传递的信号 核心观点 中共中央政治局 12 月 8 日召开会议，分析研究 2026 年经济工作，重点如下： 一是为实现经济高质量发展，仍应注重科技自立自强水平提高，但稳中求进也指向 2025 年作为十五五开局之年，经济增速目标设置在 5%左右的概率较大。 二是宏观政策更加积极有为的同时，也应注重效能提升。对应政策基调由去年 12 月政 治局会议的"加强超常规逆周期调节"转变为"加大逆周期和跨周期调节"，意味着相较 于政策力度的扩张，政策效能的提升更为重要，尤其是集中财力保障国家重大战略任 务，做到"小钱小气，大钱大方"。要注重发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应。 具体政策来看：货币政策方面，预计 2026 年货币政策全年降准 50BP，降息 10BP，小 步慢跑。财政政策方面，我们上修 2026 年赤字率预期至 4.0%~4.2%左右，但广义赤 字率可能小幅回撤。 ❑ 提质增效更加注重高质量发展，"超常规"退出 中共中央政治局 12 月 8 日召开会议，分析研究 2026 年经济工作，会议指出，明 年经济工作要坚持稳中求进、 ...

Group 1: Investment in Physical Capital - China's capital stock reached approximately $93 trillion in 2024, accounting for about 503% of GDP[29] - The average growth rate of capital stock from 1961 to 1993 was about 5.2%, while from 1994 to 2016 it was approximately 10.8%, and is projected to decline to 5.8% by 2024[29] - In 2024, the total capital formation in China is estimated to be around 54.8 trillion yuan, contributing approximately 25.2% to GDP growth[2] Group 2: Investment in Human Capital - Investment in human capital focuses on enhancing capabilities across the entire population, including education, healthcare, and skills training[47] - The proportion of public spending on social welfare in China was 53.7% in 2023, compared to 60%-70% in developed countries, indicating significant room for improvement[6] - The government aims to increase the share of public investment in social welfare during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, particularly in areas like education and healthcare[44] Group 3: Economic and Social Development - The urbanization rate in China is expected to reach 70% within five years, with a projected rate of about 67% in 2024, driving infrastructure and public service improvements[42] - The report emphasizes the need for a balanced approach between investment in physical and human capital to foster sustainable economic growth[1] - The government plans to enhance public services in nine key areas, including education, healthcare, and social security, to ensure equitable access for all citizens[52]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for 德昌股份 is upgraded to "Buy" [6][8]. Core Views - 德昌股份 is a leading domestic enterprise in automotive EPS motors, extending its high-end motor technology barriers into the robotics sector, particularly in joint motors, which is expected to open up growth opportunities [1][5]. - The market currently perceives the company as a traditional home appliance manufacturer, underestimating its growth potential [2][3]. Summary by Sections Business Transformation - The company's business focus has significantly shifted, with home appliance operations serving as a cash cow. The automotive EPS motor business, developed over the past five years, has entered a growth phase and is becoming the second growth curve for the company. The market's understanding of the automotive EPS motor sector is limited, as it has higher technical barriers compared to ordinary motors. Previously, the global market was dominated by foreign giants like Nidec and Bosch, but 德昌股份 has established itself as a leading domestic player with strong product capabilities and competitive advantages [3][5]. Robotics Sector Potential - The difficulty of entering the robotics joint motor market is higher than market expectations, and the company's capabilities in this area are significantly underestimated. There is little market anticipation regarding the company's foray into this sector [3][5]. Performance Indicators and Catalysts - Key performance indicators include the revenue share and profitability of automotive EPS motors, as well as customer acquisition and order status in the robotics sector. Catalysts for growth include an increase in revenue share from automotive EPS motors and successful breakthroughs in customer acquisition for the robotics business [4][5]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 德昌股份 from 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 46.9 billion, 53.9 billion, and 63.2 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 14.6%, 14.8%, and 17.3% respectively. The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 2.0 billion, 4.0 billion, and 5.7 billion yuan, with significant fluctuations in growth rates [6][12].

证券研究报告 | 浙商早知道 报告日期：2025 年 12 月 08 日 浙商早知道 2025 年 12 月 08 日 ：张延兵 执业证书编号：S1230511010020 ：021-80106048 ：zhangyanbing@stocke.com.cn 重要观点 重要点评 【浙商大消费中观策略 马莉/史凡可/陈钊】商贸零售 行业深度：TOP TOY 潮玩发展之路： IP 矩阵、全品类、 全球化——20251207 http://www.stocke.com.cn 1/5 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 【浙商 ESG 祁星】专题研究：中国"双碳"政策体系继续完善，欧美气候监管转向灵活务实——20251205 【浙商金属新材料 何玉静/沈皓俊】有色金属 年度行业策略报告：供需矛盾催化升级，周期红利价值凸显—— 20251206 【浙商策略 廖静池/王大霁/高旗胜】A 股策略周报：冗余时刻还未结束，目标不变、守株待兔——20251206 【浙商固收 覃汉/沈聂萍】债券市场专题研究：本轮债市要调整多久？——20251206 浙商早报 1 重要观点 1.1 【浙商 ESG 祁星】专题研究：中国"双碳"政策体系继 ...

证券研究报告 | 公司点评 | 通信设备 美利信(301307) 报告日期：2025 年 12 月 07 日 控股股东增持彰显发展信心，公司"液冷+半导体"有望超预期 ——美利信点评报告 投资要点 ❑ 近期公司催化密集： 1）控股股东拟增持公司股份 0.5~1 亿元。2025 年 12 月 5 日，公司发布公告： 公司控股股东美利信控股有限公司计划在未来 6 个月内增持 0.5~1 亿元。 2）公司拟定向增发不超过 12 亿元，投入可钎焊压铸（液冷）、半导体等项目。 2025 年 12 月 4 日，公司发布公告，拟向特定对象募集资金总额不超过 12 亿 元，计划分别用于半导体装备精密结构件建设项目（5 亿元）、通信及汽车零部 件可钎焊压铸产业化项目（5 亿元）、补充流动资金（2 亿元）。 3）公司通过合资方式正式布局服务器液冷。2025 年 11 月 22 日，公司与钜量创 新绿能股份有限公司（中国台湾）签署合作协议，双方拟新设立合资公司，共同 开拓服务器液冷关键零部件市场，为国内、国际优质客户提供高效水冷板设计、 相关液冷服务器套件的开发量产服务。 ❑ 点评：未来公司在液冷、半导体设备板块的业绩释放均有望超 ...

证券研究报告 | 债券市场专题研究 | 债券研究 债券市场专题研究 报告日期：2025 年 12 月 07 日 "进退维谷"的同业存单 ——流动性与同业存单跟踪 核心观点 央行买断式逆回购、MLF 等中期流动性投放工具的成本与当前同业存单发行利率形 成比价关系，且公募货币基金和银行理财现管类产品规模有望继续增长，同业存单利 率难以明显上行。但同时 DR001 较难大幅低于央行 7 天期 omo 利率，同业存单利率 下行空间亦有限。 ❑ "进退维谷"的同业存单 执业证书号：S1230525080012 hujianwen@stocke.com.cn 相关报告 1 《事件冲击后，关注 3~5Y 二 永》 2025.10.11 2 《把握事件冲击后的调仓机 会》 2025.10.11 3 《天安财险违约分析与启示》 2025.10.10 四季度以来，参考中债估值，1 年期 AAA 评级同业存单到期收益率振幅仅 5bp, 收益率在此窄幅波动区间内达到均衡。具体地说，四季度以来，1 年期 AAA 评 级同业存单中债到期收益率波动区间在 1.63%到 1.68%之间，12 月份以来振幅更 收窄到 2bp，表明同业存单的" ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal sector has seen a rise, but it underperformed compared to the CSI 300 index, with a weekly increase of 0.77% against the CSI 300's 1.28% [2] - Inventory levels are increasing due to supply policies, while coal prices are declining rapidly. Despite increased production, supply constraints are expected to persist, leading to potential coal shortages in certain regions [6][32] - The report anticipates a rise in the coal price center in the fourth quarter, with current coal asset dividends being reasonable [6][32] Summary by Sections Coal Market Performance - As of December 5, 2025, the coal sector's performance was 0.77% up, lagging behind the CSI 300 index by 0.51 percentage points. A total of 21 stocks rose, while 14 fell, with New Dazhou A showing the highest increase of 14.98% [2] Key Data on Coal Sales and Inventory - The average daily coal sales for monitored enterprises from November 28 to December 4, 2025, were 6.98 million tons, down 5% week-on-week and down 9.5% year-on-year. Total coal inventory was 24.67 million tons, a decrease of 0.3% week-on-week and 20.5% year-on-year [2][30] Price Trends in Coal Types - As of December 5, 2025, the price of thermal coal (Q5500K) was 706 CNY/ton, up 1.15% week-on-week, while the price of imported thermal coal fell by 4.69% to 874 CNY/ton. Prices for coking coal and anthracite also showed declines [3][4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests prioritizing investments in high-dividend thermal coal companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and others. For coking coal, companies like Huaibei Mining and Shanxi Coking Coal are recommended. Additionally, companies with improved profits in the coking sector are highlighted [6][32]

证券研究报告 | 债券市场专题研究 | 债券研究 债券市场专题研究 报告日期：2025 年 12 月 07 日 关注成长板块的配置价值 ——债市专题研究 核心观点 中期维度，政策催化下慢牛预期依然稳固，权益市场风险偏好近期逐步回升，科技板 块转债作为高弹性品种，其股性价值有望得到进一步巩固。在资产荒格局延续的背景 下，"固收+"资金对转债，特别是具备成长确定性的科技品种，配置需求依然旺盛。 ❑ 转债市场走势先下后上，整体呈现成交缩量、区间震荡，估值压缩。 近期在债券市场的持续调整下，纯债基金的赎回规模明显放大，市场流动性收缩 明显，带动固收+基金赎回规模同步扩大，但转债市场通过估值波动熨平债券市场 震荡影响，总体持仓体验更优。中期维度，虽然转债供给持续缩量，但市场增量 资金充足，预计转债估值回调空间有限，同时随着投资者止盈预期接近尾声，权 益慢牛预期下市场对于高估值的标的容忍度有所提升。 ❑ 近期市场缩量盘整，但科技板块成交依旧活跃，量价均已呈现企稳态势。 10 月以来，科技板块跟随股市同步调整，虽然板块转债估值被动收缩，但依旧呈 现较为明显的抗跌性；万得可转债信息技术指数近两月回调 2.43%，表现整体优 ...

证券研究报告 | A 股策略周报 | 中国策略 冗余时刻还未结束，目标不变、守株待兔 ——A 股市场运行周报第 70 期 核心观点 本周市场继续反弹，但双向波动有所增大。展望后市，考虑到今年三季度市场涨幅较 大、强势标的多数还在冲高回落后的修复过程中，加之近期未出现引领大盘上涨的宏 大叙事和领涨行业，因此我们预计后市大概率维持区间震荡格局。配置方面，基于"冗 余时刻区间震荡，设定目标守株待兔"的判断：择时方面，建议持仓等待，切勿追涨 杀跌、垫高自身成本，同时根据不同宽基指数的"左脚"分类设定目标（例如上证指 数 9 月 4 日低点或前期跳空缺口，恒生科技指数近期低点或年线），伺机出击、分批介 入。行业配置和个股方面，建议关注明显滞涨且份额扩张的券商板块，短期可以关注 走势顺畅且历史上在 12 月胜率较高的家电，留意医药、消费、AI 应用板块中相对低 位的标的，同时关注年线上方的低位滞涨个股。 ❑ 本周（2025-12-01 至 2025-12-05）行情概况 （1）主要指数：宽基指数多数上涨，创业板指涨幅居前。（2）板块观察：有色携 硬科技上涨，消费伴软科技回调。（3）市场情绪：沪深成交环比有所回落，股指 期 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观深度报告 | 中国宏观 另一方面，将币值稳定与金融稳定确立为并列首要目标，并通过"双支柱"框架 为其提供工具和制度支撑。我们预计未来一段时间，可以预期宏观审慎体系的重 构大致会沿着目标、工具与机制三条主线展开，与首要目标调整形成自上而下的 闭环：其一，在目标层面，从防个案风险走向统筹系统性稳定； 其二，在工具层面，从强化 MPA 约束走向宏观审慎工具箱系统化，特别是对股 市、债市、汇市的关注度明显上升，其中在股票市场方面，在两项支持资本市场 稳定发展的货币政策工具加持下，中央汇金的"类平准基金"呈现"平准化"特 征，其逆周期功能显著增强，这也意味着未来市场仍有趋势和波动，但尾部风险 被显著削弱，中长期资金的参与意愿和持有稳定性有望明显提升，这是我们在 "十五五"期间保持长期看多中国权益市场的关键逻辑之一； 其三，在机制层面，从临时救火走向常态化预期管理和应急安排。 展望央行宏观审慎政策体系的重塑，我们认为需要重点把握两条主线：一是与金 融市场运行直接相关的宏观审慎安排重构；二是几项方向已较为明晰、具有一定 确定性的制度改革，如 MPA 体系重构、系统重要性机构扩围等。 如何建立"金融强国 ...