证券研究报告 | 浙商早知道 报告日期：2026 年 01 月 29 日 浙商早知道 2026 年 01 月 29 日 ：王禾 执业证书编号：S1230512110001 重要观点 ❑ 【浙商策略 廖静池/王大霁/黄宇宸】策略专题研究：马年看"马"：马斯克概念股票池及主题指数——20260128 ：021-80105901 ：wanghe@stocke.com.cn 市场总览 ❑ 大势：1 月 28 日上证指数上涨 0.27%，沪深 300 上涨 0.26%，科创 50 下跌 0.08%，中证 1000 上涨 0.21%，创业 板指下跌 0.57%，恒生指数上涨 2.58%。 ❑ 行业：1 月 28 日表现最好的行业分别是有色金属（+5.92%)、石油石化（+3.54%)、煤炭（+3.42%)、建筑材料 （+2.18%)、钢铁（+2.16%)，表现最差的行业分别是综合（-2.53%)、传媒（-1.77%)、国防军工（-1.68%)、美容 护理（-1.65%)、医药生物（-1.56%)。 ❑ 资金：1 月 28 日全 A 总成交额为 29922.89 亿元，南下资金净流出 34.27 亿港元。 浙商早报 1 市 ...

证券研究报告 | 公司点评 | 城商行Ⅱ 青岛银行(002948) 报告日期：2026 年 01 月 28 日 业绩全面超预期 ——青岛银行 2025 年业绩快报点评 投资要点 ❑ 青岛银行 25A 利润高增，ROE 逆势提升，同时贷款投放提速，不良额率双降。 ❑ 业绩概览 青岛银行快报显示，25A 营业收入、归母净利润同比分别增长 8.0%、21.7%，增 速较 25Q1-3 提升 2.9pc、6.1pc。25Q4 末不良率为 0.97%，环比下降 13bp；拨备 覆盖率为292%，环比提升22pc。25A青岛银行ROE为12.68%，同比提升1.2pc。 25Q4 末青岛银行贷款、存款分别同比增长 16.5%、16.4%，增速环比分别提升 3.2pc、3.9pc。存贷增速均提升，判断主要得益于青岛银行采取早投放早收益策 略，在 25Q4 加大了贷款投放以及存款揽存，提前开启开门红投放。 ❑ 不良额率双降 25Q4 末不良率为 0.97%，环比下降 13bp；不良额为 38.41 亿元，环比下降 7%； 25Q4 末拨备覆盖率为 292%，环比提升 22pc，拨备进一步增厚。 ❑ 盈利预测与估值 青岛银行 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to the market index [3]. Core Insights - The company is well-positioned to benefit from multiple industry trends, including photovoltaic, semiconductor, and hydrogen energy equipment sectors [1]. - The projected net profit for the company from 2025 to 2027 is estimated to be 0.71 billion, 0.73 billion, and 0.87 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 11%, 3%, and 20% respectively [3]. - The company's revenue is expected to grow significantly, with forecasts of 2.53 billion, 2.72 billion, 3.41 billion, and 4.12 billion yuan for the years 2024 to 2027, representing growth rates of 12%, 7%, 26%, and 21% respectively [4]. Summary by Relevant Sections Hydrogen Energy Equipment - The company covers the entire manufacturing chain of hydrogen energy equipment, focusing on core manufacturing processes [2]. Financial Summary - The company’s revenue and net profit forecasts indicate a strong growth trajectory, with a projected revenue increase from 2.53 billion yuan in 2024 to 4.12 billion yuan in 2027 [4]. - The estimated P/E ratios for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 93, 90, and 75 respectively, suggesting a decreasing valuation multiple over time [3]. Photovoltaic Equipment - The company is involved in advanced photovoltaic technologies, including PERTOP, HJT, and perovskite cell production lines, which are expected to drive demand and revenue growth [7]. - The PERTOP2.0 production line has an annual capacity exceeding 2.0 GW with a cell conversion efficiency of 25.1%-25.6% [7]. Semiconductor Equipment - The company has successfully entered the semiconductor sector with the delivery of horizontal PVD equipment, which is crucial for semiconductor device production [7].

核心观点 本文聚焦于针对低利率环境下传统风险平价模型"低波低收"的本土化困境，通过引 入"宽松风险平价"框架与动态收益锚定机制，构建一种不依赖宏观择时，同时平衡 "风险分散"与"收益弹性"的全天候增强策略，实现了从本土化适配向全球化配置 的逻辑进阶。 ❑ 困局与破局：低利率时代的配置范式重构 随着全球经济步入深度的结构性调整与新周期，长期利率中枢下行导致传统"固 收+"策略收益变薄，而权益市场的高波动使得单一资产配置面临严峻挑战。传统 的风险平价（Risk Parity）模型虽然通过"风险均衡"解决了 60/40 组合的风险集 中问题，但在低利率环境下往往因过度超配低息债券而退化为"类债基"，面临 "低波低收"的内生矛盾。同时，基于美林时钟的宏观择时策略在中国市场因增 长与通胀信号"扁平化"或存在一定失效。本文旨在引入宽松风险平价（Relaxed Risk Parity, RRP）框架，寻求收益与稳健最优解。 证券研究报告 | 债券市场专题研究 | 债券研究 债券市场专题研究 报告日期：2026 年 01 月 28 日 宽松改进下的风险平价：从本土化到全球化 ——资产配置方法论系列二 ❑ 模型重塑：从"硬约束 ...

证券研究报告 | 公司点评 | 光伏设备 金辰股份(603396) 报告日期：2026 年 01 月 28 日 光伏+半导体+氢能设备布局全面，受益多产业浪潮 ——金辰股份点评报告 投资要点 ❑ 氢能设备：全链装备，覆盖氢能核心制造环节 ❑ 盈利预测与估值 预计公司 2025-2027 年归母净利润为 0.71/0.73/0.87 亿元，同比增长 11%/3%/20%； 对应 PE 为 93/90/75 倍。给予"增持"评级。 ❑ 风险提示：光伏行业技术迭代风险、光伏行业价格波动风险。 | 财务摘要 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Table_Forcast] (百万元) | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 营业收入 | 2530 | 2719 | 3413 | 4121 | | (+/-) (%) | 12% | 7% | 26% | 21% | | 归母净利润 | 64 | 71 | 73 | 87 | | (+/-) (%) | -29% | 11% | 3% | 20% | | 每股收益(元) | 0.5 | ...

证券研究报告 | 公司点评 | 光伏设备 迈为股份(300751) 报告日期：2026 年 01 月 28 日 太空 HJT 光伏星辰大海，半导体设备成长曲线加速 ——迈为股份点评报告 投资要点 ❑ 光伏设备：HJT+钙钛矿设备多轮驱动，受益地面+太空光伏新需求 公司主要产品包括：HJT 异质结电池生产线+钙钛矿叠层设备。我们认为：在白 银价格大幅上涨、及 P 型 HJT 在太空光伏的应用潜力，未来公司 HJT 设备在地面 +太空领域有望齐发力，龙头公司成长空间大。 1）光伏 HJT 设备—— 预 计 公 司 2025-2027 年 归 母 净 利 润 为 7.8/10.1/11.3 亿 元 ， 同 比 变 化 - 16%/+30%/+12%；对应 PE 为 123/95/85 倍。维持"买入"评级。 ❑ 风险提示：光伏行业技术迭代风险、半导体设备研发不及预期风险。 财务摘要 | [Table_Forcast] (百万元) | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 9830 | 7223 | 8593 ...

证券研究报告 | 公司点评 | 光伏设备 ——迈为股份点评报告 投资要点 ❑ 光伏设备：HJT+钙钛矿设备多轮驱动，受益地面+太空光伏新需求 公司主要产品包括：HJT 异质结电池生产线+钙钛矿叠层设备。我们认为：在白 银价格大幅上涨、及 P 型 HJT 在太空光伏的应用潜力，未来公司 HJT 设备在地面 +太空领域有望齐发力，龙头公司成长空间大。 1）光伏 HJT 设备—— （4）生产线配套设备：包括自动上下片机、转接机、烧结炉/干燥炉/固化炉/ 烘干炉、检测测试分选机等，确保生产线的高效运作。 2）光伏 HJT+钙钛矿叠层设备—— 据公司官方微信公众号，2025 年 12 月成功取得公司在叠层电池领域的首个商业 化整线订单。此次合作将助力客户建成业内领先的 G12H 全面积钙钛矿/硅异质 结叠层电池量产线。兼具高材料利用率与高生产节拍的喷墨打印技术，以及高 效率且高生产节拍的板式时间型原子层沉积(ALD)技术等。 迈为股份(300751) 报告日期：2026 年 01 月 28 日 太空 HJT 光伏星辰大海，半导体设备成长曲线加速 （2）MiniLED 领域：晶圆隐切、裂片、刺晶巨转、激光键合等全套设备； ...

Core Insights - Elon Musk's technology landscape encompasses six key disruptive technology sectors: AI, robotics, autonomous driving, commercial space, brain-machine interfaces, and new energy, representing significant investment opportunities for the next decade [2][3] - The report scores Musk's thematic investment concept at 95 out of 100, indicating strong potential across various dimensions, with an excess return of 127.44% compared to the Wind All A index from early 2025 to January 23, 2026 [8][14] Group 1: Musk's Investment Sector Layout - Musk has systematically positioned his companies, including Tesla, xAI, SpaceX, and Neuralink, across six critical technology areas that are interconnected and complementary, aiming to elevate human civilization [3][14] - The year 2026 is identified as a pivotal point for the commercialization of Musk's technology landscape, with several core projects expected to transition from development to market realization [3][14] Group 2: Investment Opportunities by Sector 1. **Robotics**: The anticipated success of the Optimus robot will drive demand across the entire robotics supply chain, presenting significant investment opportunities in upstream core components and midstream assembly [4][19] 2. **AI**: Musk's dual approach of self-developed computing power and software aims to establish a comprehensive AI ecosystem, with investment opportunities expected to focus on computing infrastructure and software applications by 2026 [25][26] 3. **Commercial Space**: The deployment of Starlink satellites and the operationalization of the Starship are set to revolutionize low Earth orbit communications, creating investment opportunities in upstream components, midstream launch services, and downstream applications [34][36] 4. **Brain-Machine Interfaces**: Neuralink's advancements in brain-machine interface technology are expected to lead to significant investment opportunities in upstream electrodes and chips, as well as midstream system integration and clinical services [43][48] 5. **Autonomous Driving**: The launch of Tesla's Robotaxi service in 2026 will validate the commercial model for autonomous driving, with investment opportunities in core computing power, algorithms, and manufacturers capable of L3+ production [56][59] 6. **New Energy**: Tesla's energy business is projected to experience explosive growth, particularly in energy storage systems, with investment opportunities in system integration, core component supply, and virtual power plant operations [62][66] Group 3: Thematic Evaluation and Stock Pool - The thematic evaluation of Musk's concept is based on eight dimensions, scoring particularly high in market capacity, policy effectiveness, and future growth potential, while the valuation level received a lower score [79][81] - A stock pool has been constructed based on six sectors: robotics, commercial space, AI, brain-machine interfaces, autonomous driving, and new energy, serving as a reference for investors [82]

证券研究报告 | 浙商早知道 报告日期：2026 年 01 月 28 日 浙商早知道 2026 年 01 月 28 日 ：王禾 执业证书编号：S1230512110001 ：021-80105901 ：wanghe@stocke.com.cn 市场总览 资金：1 月 27 日全 A 总成交额为 29215 亿元，南下资金净流出 6.35 亿港元。 重要推荐 【浙商机械 邱世梁/王华君/姬新悦】咸亨国际（605056）公司深度：领先 MRO 集约化服务龙头，具身智能应用 打开成长空间——20260126 重要观点 【浙商宏观 李超/林成炜/费瑾】宏观深度报告：从"有钱"到"有闲"：中国假日经济变革影响几何？——20260126 重要点评 【浙商煤炭 樊金璐】煤炭 行业深度：黑金破晓，焦煤崛起——20260127 http://www.stocke.com.cn 1/4 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 大势：1 月 27 日上证指数上涨 0.18%，沪深 300 下跌 0.03%，科创 50 上涨 1.51%，中证 1000 上涨 0.2%，创业板 指上涨 0.71%，恒生指数上涨 1.35%。 行业：1 月 ...

Investment Highlights - The report emphasizes the growth potential driven by AI and the reversal of the anti-involution cycle in the manufacturing sector [1] - Key companies highlighted include Yokogawa Precision, Zhejiang Rongtai, Shanghai Yanpu, and SANY Heavy Industry among others [2][3] Industry Performance - The report notes significant performance in various sectors, with the best-performing indices being the construction materials sector (+9.23%), oil and petrochemicals (+7.71%), and steel (+7.31%) for the week ending January 23, 2026 [5][23] - In the manufacturing sector, the top indices were the photovoltaic concept index (+9.33%), aerospace and military theme index (+7.65%), and new energy concept index (+7.44%) [5][24] Key Industry Trends - The report discusses the rapid rise of space photovoltaic technology and the integration of the nuclear fusion industry in the U.S., highlighting technological breakthroughs and increased international cooperation [4][6][9] - The EDA (Electronic Design Automation) industry is noted for its consolidation and the potential for domestic breakthroughs, driven by government support and strategic acquisitions [11][12][14] Company-Specific Insights - China Shipbuilding Industry Company is expected to benefit from asset integration within the group, improving competitive dynamics and operational efficiency [15][16] - The report forecasts significant profit growth for key companies, with expected net profits for 2025-2027 showing substantial increases, particularly for companies like China Shipbuilding [17][21] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on core positions and flexible targets within the EDA sector, as domestic companies are positioned for significant growth due to increased policy support and market demand [11][17] - Specific companies to watch include Huada Jiutian, Gelun Electronics, and Guangli Micro [17]