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2025年6月宏观数据解读:6月经济:名义GDP增速边际放缓,关注股债双牛兑现
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-07-15 14:03
证券研究报告 | 宏观深度报告 | 中国宏观 宏观深度报告 报告日期:2025 年 07 月 15 日 6 月经济:名义 GDP 增速边际放缓,关注股债双牛兑现 ——2025 年 6 月宏观数据解读 核心观点 我们认为,6 月经济回稳势头较好,二季度 GDP 实际增长 5.2%,供给端修复斜 率显著高于需求端,6 月规模以上工业增加值同比实际增长 6.8%,量价总体延续 背离。据我们测算,二季度名义 GDP 增速较一季度放缓 0.7 个百分点至 3.9%左 右,价格因素或拖累企业盈利改善的斜率。整体来看,二季度经济相较一季度将 有所回落,全年可能呈现前高后低的走势,需要重点关注经济的波动,我们预计 经济运行在内外部环境不确定性抬升的过程中或呈现非线性特征,供给和需求可 能呈现 K 型分化走势。我们判断,后续在出口波动的影响下,供给端大概率在抢 出口效应下保持偏强态势,但固定资产投资尤其是制造业投资方面可能受制于中 长期不确定性的约束,预计固定资产投资后续可能放缓。 6 月份服务业景气较为积极,6 月份全国服务业生产指数同比增长 6.0%。工业生 产积极对生产性服务业有带动作用。 展望未来,在工业稳增长及两新政 ...
大众品Q2业绩前瞻及中期策略报告:新消费重构投资范式,传统消费循势待时-20250715
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-07-15 11:48
Group 1 - The report emphasizes the reconstruction of investment paradigms in the food and beverage sector, driven by new consumption trends that focus on emotional value, health, and technological innovation [1][14][30] - The new consumption paradigm is characterized by a shift from traditional consumption frameworks to a model that prioritizes innovative supply and new demand creation through quality offerings [1][14][35] - The report identifies three main consumption trends: rational quality consumption, emotional value self-consumption, and technological iteration innovation [1][14][30] Group 2 - The analysis of sub-sectors indicates that traditional leaders in beer, dairy, and condiments should be evaluated through traditional consumption frameworks, while new consumption-driven sectors like snacks, tea drinks, and health products require a bottom-up approach to identify explosive changes [2][35] - In the snack sector, companies with category dividends and new channel expansions are expected to perform well, with projected revenue growth rates for various companies in Q2 2025 [4][36] - The soft drink sector shows differentiated performance across segments, with energy drinks and ready-to-drink tea expected to grow, while traditional segments face challenges [4][37] Group 3 - The dairy sector is anticipated to have stable revenue in Q2 2025, with a focus on profit elasticity once raw milk prices stabilize [4][38] - The tea drink market is experiencing high growth driven by the delivery battle, with key players like Mixue Group and Cha Bai Dao expected to thrive in the mid-price segment [4][41] - The health product sector is seeing a concentration in the B-end market, while the C-end market requires attention to high-growth single products [4][39] Group 4 - Investment recommendations include companies that align with new consumption trends, such as Wei Long, Yili, Wanchen Group, and others, indicating a focus on long-term growth opportunities despite short-term adjustments [6][35] - The report highlights the importance of supply chain optimization and product innovation for brands to remain competitive in the evolving retail landscape [30][33]
2025年6月进出口数据传递的信号:6月出口维持高增,下行拐点将近
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-07-15 10:54
证券研究报告 | 宏观专题研究 | 中国宏观 6 月出口维持高增,下行拐点将近 ──2025 年 6 月进出口数据传递的信号 核心观点 6 月出口表现强势,关税豁免期内"转口抢出口"是重要拉动。中美瑞士谈判后互相 调降关税,6 月中国对美出口同比降 15%,较 5 月-33.6%边际改善。从美国数据看, 上半年需求透支已较为明显。伴随关税渐进生效抬升,预计外需逐步走弱,出口下行 拐点将近。关注关税冲突下,企业建立海外仓跨境囤货对出口节奏的扰动。 ❑ 6 月出口表现维持强势,关税豁免期内"转口抢出口"是重要拉动 2025 年 6 月人民币计价出口 2.34 万亿元,同比增长 7.2%,前值 6.3%。1-6 月人 民币计价累计出口 13 万亿元,同比增长 7.2%,较前值 7.2%不变。1-6 月,我国对 共建"一带一路"国家合计出口 6.56 万亿元,增长 10.8%。 6 月出口数据表现延续强势,我们认为"转口抢出口"是重要拉动,一是从总需求 角度来看 6 月全球制造业 PMI 上行,由前值 49.5 升至 50.3;二是 6 月对非美经济 体如东盟、欧盟、非洲等经济体出口分别达到 4186 亿元、3538 ...
RDA 行业点评报告:真数据变成“金资产”,RDA推动数据要素价值化
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-07-15 08:13
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Insights - The RDA (Real Data Assets) paradigm has been introduced, emphasizing the integration of real data with physical assets, enhancing the authenticity and value of other physical assets, and promoting the capitalization of data elements [1][2] - RDA focuses on the transformation of real data into "golden assets" through blockchain technology, creating a complete path from asset registration to trading, and enhancing the interaction between data elements and capital markets [2][4] Summary by Sections RDA Paradigm and Central Bank Signals - On July 3, the Shanghai Data Exchange released a report on RDA, marking a new phase in data assetization [1] - The People's Bank of China has outlined its achievements and future plans in promoting the deep integration of digital technology and data elements [1] RDA Characteristics and Financialization - RDA consists of three stages: asset preparation, asset issuance, and asset trading, forming a complete chain for the digitalization of physical assets and financialization of data assets [2] - RDA's five characteristics—real number integration, genuine transparency, credible returns, value reconstruction, and ecological collaboration—enhance the interaction between data elements and capital markets [2] Market Potential and Application Scenarios - The RDA market has vast potential, with expected exponential growth in application demand as RDA becomes a mainstream asset type [4] - RDA's versatility allows it to be applied across various non-standard scenarios, including supply chain finance, carbon assets, industrial internet, travel, and intellectual property [4] Related Companies - Companies involved in data and physical asset integration include Jianhui Information and Jieshun Technology [4] - Blockchain foundational companies include Shanda Diwei, Jiuyuan Yinhai, and Zhongke Jiangnan [4] - Companies focused on data capitalization include Shanghai Ganglian, Toris, Hehe Information, and others [4]
中船防务(600685):业绩预告超预期,2025H1归母净利润同比增长约213%-268%
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-07-15 03:58
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a significant increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, with a projected growth of approximately 213% to 268% year-on-year, resulting in a net profit of 460 to 540 million yuan [1] - The growth in profit is attributed to improved operational efficiency, increased revenue from shipbuilding products, and better performance from joint ventures [1][2] - The shipbuilding industry is experiencing upward cyclical trends due to factors such as ship replacement cycles, environmental policies, and tight capacity, which are expected to enhance profitability for shipyards [2][3] Financial Summary - The projected net profits for the company from 2025 to 2027 are approximately 900 million, 1.66 billion, and 2.7 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 139%, 84%, and 63% respectively [4][6] - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 0.64 yuan in 2025, 1.18 yuan in 2026, and 1.91 yuan in 2027 [6] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are projected to be 44, 24, and 15 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, while the price-to-book (P/B) ratios are expected to be 2.1, 1.9, and 1.7 [4][6] Industry Trends - The shipbuilding industry is witnessing a slowdown in new orders, with a 58% year-on-year decline in new orders received in the first half of 2025, although certain segments like container ships have seen growth [2][3] - The supply-demand dynamics in the industry are expected to drive ship prices higher due to tight capacity and inflationary pressures [2][3]
浙商证券浙商早知道-20250715
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-07-14 23:30
证券研究报告 | 浙商早知道 报告日期:2025 年 07 月 15 日 浙商早知道 2025 年 07 月 15 日 :王禾 执业证书编号:S1230512110001 :021-80105901 :wanghe@stocke.com.cn 市场总览 重要点评 【浙商电新 童非】计算机 行业深度:HVDC 与柴发环节,AI 浪潮下的双子星——20250713 http://www.stocke.com.cn 1/3 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 大势:7 月 14 日上证指数上涨 0.27%,沪深 300 上涨 0.07%,科创 50 下跌 0.21%,中证 1000 上涨 0.02%,创业板 指下跌 0.45%,恒生指数上涨 0.26%。 行业:7 月 14 日表现最好的行业分别是机械设备(+1.23%)、综合(+1.04%)、公用事业(+1.04%)、家用电器(+1.02%)、 石油石化(+0.86%),表现最差的行业分别是房地产(-1.29%)、传媒(-1.24%)、非银金融(-1.03%)、商贸零售(-0.94%)、 计算机(-0.88%)。 资金:7 月 14 日全 A 总成交额为 14809 ...
6月信贷社融点评:季末阶段性冲高
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-07-14 14:06
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [5] Core Viewpoints - Retail loans show a weak recovery, with new medium and long-term loans for residents increasing by 335.3 billion, up 15.1 billion year-on-year, and short-term loans increasing by 262.1 billion, up 15.0 billion year-on-year. The growth is primarily driven by operational loans, which contributed 80% of the retail loan increment [2] - Corporate loans experienced a temporary surge, with new short-term loans for enterprises increasing by 1.2 trillion, up 490 billion year-on-year. The manufacturing PMI was at 49.7%, indicating a slight improvement in economic conditions, although the actual demand may not have significantly improved [3] - The overall credit environment is characterized by larger monthly fluctuations, with a trend of larger months followed by smaller months. This is attributed to early repayments influenced by debt reduction funds and the concentrated issuance of short-term loans by banks [3] - For the full year, a slight increase in credit is expected, with the potential for year-on-year growth in the second half of the year due to the weakening impact of debt replacement and a low base effect from the previous year [4] Summary by Sections Retail Loans - New medium and long-term loans for residents increased by 335.3 billion, while short-term loans increased by 262.1 billion. The growth in retail loans is mainly driven by operational loans [2] Corporate Loans - New short-term loans for enterprises surged to 1.2 trillion, while long-term loans increased by 1.0 trillion. The demand for short-term loans is under scrutiny for sustainability [3] Credit Environment - The credit landscape shows significant monthly volatility, with larger months followed by smaller months, indicating challenges in credit management for banks [3] Future Outlook - A slight increase in credit is anticipated for the year, with expectations of year-on-year growth in the second half due to a low base effect from the previous year [4]
万辰集团(300972):从草根观察看量贩零食扩品类之路
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-07-14 13:37
证券研究报告 | 公司深度 | 休闲食品 从草根观察看量贩零食扩品类之路 ——万辰集团深度报告 风险提示: 门店扩张不及预期、品类扩张不及预期、市场竞争加剧 财务摘要 | [Table_Forcast] (百万元) | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 32329 | 54008 | 64250 | 73350 | | (+/-) (%) | 247.86% | 67.06% | 18.96% | 14.16% | | 归母净利润 | 294 | 936 | 1292 | 1602 | | (+/-) (%) | / | 218.81% | 38.03% | 24.06% | | 每股收益(元) | 1.63 | 4.99 | 6.88 | 8.54 | | P/E | 101.21 | 33.09 | 23.97 | 19.33 | 资料来源:浙商证券研究所 投资要点 ❑ 投资建议 我们认为公司为硬折扣领域最纯粹标的,属于量贩零食龙二&唯一上市公司,具 备规模/先发/管理优势。一方面,公司门店目前 ...
思摩尔国际(06969):HNB加速渗透、英美大力投入,雾化、医疗向好
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-07-14 04:28
思摩尔国际(06969) 报告日期:2025 年 07 月 14 日 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 | 家居用品 HNB 加速渗透、英美大力投入,雾化&医疗向好 ——思摩尔国际点评报告 投资要点 ❑ 近期催化与核心观点 近期 Glo Hilo 在日本仙台的试销反馈较好,我们认为 HNB 产品体验提升、转化 烟民提速会带动行业加速增长,思摩尔国际绑定英美烟草充分受益,同时雾化& 医疗业务向好。 ❑ Glo Hilo 烟弹涨价彰显产品力信心,英美烟草预期投入较大 此前市场担心思摩尔国际在单支 HNB 烟支上获取的利润不会太高,依据是英美 烟草报表呈现的 HNB 烟支单价较低、毛利空间可能有限。我们认为从两个维度 看,思摩尔有望在烟弹环节获得丰厚回报: 1)Hilo 涨价:本次 Glo Hilo 在日本发售,配套的烟弹 Virto 定价 580 日元/盒 (约 4 美元),而此前 Hyper 配套的烟弹 Lucky Strike 定价仅为 430 日元/盒(约 3 美元),涨幅超过 30%,涨价背后是英美烟草对产品力的信心,同样也给产业 链带来了较大的价值分配空间。根据我们此前外发的 HNB 深度报告,英美烟草 加热 ...
浙商早知道-20250714
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-07-13 23:30
证券研究报告 | 浙商早知道 报告日期:2025 年 07 月 14 日 浙商早知道 2025 年 07 月 14 日 :张延兵 执业证书编号:S1230511010020 :021-80106048 :zhangyanbing@stocke.com.cn 重要推荐 【浙商国防 邱世梁/王华君/孙旭鹏】华辰装备(300809)公司深度:国内轧辊磨床龙头,布局人形机器人磨床打 开蓝海市场——20250712 重要观点 重要点评 【浙商大制造中观策略 邱世梁/王华君/王家艺】巨星科技(002444)公司点评:盈利正增长,云开见星途 —— 20250710 http://www.stocke.com.cn 1/5 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1、国防-华辰装备(300809) 2、推荐逻辑:国内轧辊磨床龙头,布局人形机器人磨床打开蓝海市场 1)超预期点 公司丝杠导轨磨床主要基于亚μ平台开发,通过与国际头部产品对比,其精度已达国际领先水平,同时公 司与贝斯特、福立旺等头部人形机器人厂商已签订磨床订单或交付产品,进一步验证了公司的产品性能。 2)驱动因素 ①钢铁行业有望筑底回升。当前公司业绩主要来自数控轧辊磨床, ...