证券研究报告 | 公司点评 | 食品加工 25H1 公司实现营业收入 20.4 亿元（同比+2.6%，下同）；归母净利润 1.6 亿 元（+4.3%）；扣非归母净利润 1.6 亿元（+3.3%）。毛利率 33.2%（+1.1pct）， 净利率 6.7%（-0.2pct）。25Q2 公司实现营业收入 10.9 亿元（+4.7%）；归母净 利润 9248 万元（+1.1%）；扣非归母净利润 9442 万元（+5.5%）。毛利率 33.3% （-0.1pct），净利率 7.3%（-0.6pct）。符合预期。 投资要点 ❑ 分地区：25Q2 中国区盈利能力提升，美洲区在关税干扰和 PC 业务拖累下仍保 持增长、展现韧性，欧洲区超预期增长、势头良好 25H1 中国/欧洲/美洲/其他地区分别实现收入 8.2/3.6/7.6/1.0 亿元，同比- 1.6%/+22.0%/+4.3%/-22.9%，收入占比 40.1%/17.6%/37.2%/5.1%；其中美洲的 BF/出口业务分别实现收入 4.6/3.0 亿元，同比+2.4%/+7.4%，收入占比 22.6%/14.6%。具体来看： 1、中国区： （1）收入：Q2 下滑偏 ...

证券研究报告 | 公司点评 | 中药Ⅱ 济川药业(600566) 报告日期：2025 年 08 月 29 日 业绩拐点将至，高股息+BD 催化 ——济川药业 2025 年半年报点评 投资要点 ❑ 风险提示：政策调整风险、成本波动风险、二线产品放量不及预期。 | | | | [Table_Forcast] (百万元) | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 8016.89 | 6371.09 | 6709.99 | 7550.59 | | (+/-) (%) | -16.96% | -20.53% | 5.32% | 12.53% | | 归母净利润 | 2531.55 | 1802.73 | 1986.05 | 2311.39 | | (+/-) (%) | -10.32% | -28.79% | 10.17% | 16.38% | | 每股收益(元) | 2.76 | 1.96 | 2.16 | 2.51 | | P/E | 9.33 | 13.18 | 11.96 | 10.28 | 资料来源：浙商 ...

Core Insights - The report focuses on cross-asset timing strategies for interest rates, systematically backtesting various assets (including stock indices, commodities, and bonds) to identify performance under different market conditions [1]. Group 1: Cross-Asset Rotation Effects - The "stock-bond seesaw" effect arises from shifts in risk appetite, where strong economic expectations lead to capital flowing into equity markets, putting pressure on bond prices and raising yields [2][14]. - The relationship between commodities and bonds is closely tied to inflation expectations, with rising commodity prices typically leading to higher inflation and interest rates, which suppress bond valuations [2][14]. Group 2: Timing Strategies in Commodity and Equity Markets - In equity markets, strategies focused on volatility structures yield higher excess returns compared to trend-based moving average strategies, particularly in high-volatility environments [3]. - For commodities, timing strategies exhibit high odds and low win rates, aligning with the trend-driven nature of commodity trading. Multi-signal strategies outperform in various market conditions due to their adaptability [3][51]. Group 3: Cross-Asset Timing Strategies - The report employs a "cross-validation signal triggering method" for each asset, enhancing the robustness of cross-asset timing strategies. The "look at stocks, trade bonds" and "look at commodities, trade bonds" approaches aim to mitigate drawdowns while maintaining excess returns [4][86]. Group 4: Future Optimization Outlook - A dynamic weighting mechanism is proposed to adjust the importance of different market signals based on macroeconomic conditions, enhancing the adaptability of strategies over time [5]. - The report suggests exploring pair trading strategies in the foreign exchange market to provide additional support for cross-asset trading logic [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" [8] Core Insights - In H1 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 61.93 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 7.20 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.4%. The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 7.02 billion yuan, an increase of 31.8% [1] - The strong growth in ice cream and milk powder cheese revenue in Q2 2025 contributed to overall revenue exceeding expectations [2] - The company's market share in infant formula reached 18.1% in H1 2025, an increase of 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, ranking first in the national retail market [3] - The net profit margin improved in Q2 2025 due to increased gross sales difference, reduced spray powder, and decreased credit impairment [4] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at 119.01 billion, 122.29 billion, and 124.89 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 11.23 billion, 12.05 billion, and 12.99 billion yuan, indicating a positive growth trend [5] Revenue Breakdown - In H1 2025, revenue from liquid milk, milk powder and dairy products, cold drinks, and other products were 36.13 billion, 16.58 billion, 8.23 billion, and 390 million yuan, with year-on-year changes of -2.1%, +14.3%, +12.4%, and -5.1% respectively [2] - In Q2 2025, revenue from liquid milk, milk powder and dairy products, cold drinks, and other products were 16.49 billion, 7.76 billion, 4.12 billion, and 200 million yuan, with year-on-year changes of -0.8%, +9.7%, +38.0%, and -3.1% respectively [2] Profitability Metrics - The gross profit margin for H1 2025 was 36.0%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points, while the net profit margin was 11.7%, a decrease of 1.0 percentage points [4] - In Q2 2025, the gross profit margin was 34.2%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points, and the net profit margin was 7.9%, an increase of 2.0 percentage points [4]

Group 1 - The report aims to summarize important in-depth reports, significant commentary, and marginal changes within the macro strategy team of large manufacturing [1] - Key companies highlighted include Shanghai Yanpu, Honghe Precision, Zhenlan Instrument, Zhejiang Rongtai, Sany Heavy Industry, China Shipbuilding, Huace Testing, Xugong Machinery, Hangcha Group, Yaxing Anchor Chain, Robotech, Juxing Technology, Yadea Holdings, Aima Technology, Hongdu Aviation, Zhongji United, and BGI [2][3] Group 2 - The mechanical equipment sector emphasizes investment opportunities in leading engineering machinery companies, with a continuous push for humanoid robots and overseas expansion [4] - As of August 22, 2025, the best-performing indices in the large manufacturing sector included the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 (+13%), the Semiconductor Index (+12%), and the ChiNext Index (+6%) [5][21] Group 3 - Zhongji United's mid-year report met expectations, with a 87% year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of 2025 [8] - The company has significantly improved its profitability, with a sales net profit margin increasing by 8 percentage points year-on-year in Q2 2025 [8] - The wind power sector is experiencing high demand, with domestic wind power installations expected to reach approximately 105-115 GW in 2025, indicating a strong growth trajectory [9] Group 4 - Jinwo Co. reported a 94% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, driven by growth in its screw and insulation shaft sleeve segments [9] - The company is focusing on upgrading production capacity and enhancing its international layout through a planned fundraising of up to 950 million yuan [9] - The humanoid robot industry is anticipated to explode, with the market expected to grow significantly, driving demand for high-precision CNC machine tools [11]

业绩双 U，股东增持 ——南京银行 2025 年中报点评 投资要点 ❑ 南京银行业绩环比提升，不良生成改善，股东增持彰显信心。 ❑ 数据概览 25H1 南京银行营收、归母净利润同比分别+8.6%、+8.8%，增速环比 25Q1 分别 提升 2.1pc、+1.8pc；25Q2 末南京银行不良率环比上升 1bp 至 0.84%，拨备覆盖 率环比下降 12pc 至 312%。 ❑ 业绩环比改善 南京银行 25H1 营收和归母利润增速均环比提升，呈现 U 型改善态势，略好于市 场预期。主要驱动因素来看：①生息资产增速提升，25Q2 生息资产同比增长 27%，增速较 25Q1 提升 7pc。②减值贡献加大，25H1 资产减值损失同比增长 12%，增速较 25Q1 放缓 2pc；③息差对利润贡献加大，测算 25Q2 单季息差同比 提升4bp，同比提升幅度大于Q1。主要拖累因素来看：①实际税率边际提升，拖 累利润表现，税率上升判断是由于免税的基金规模压降，免税收入减少。②中收 增速放缓，25H1 中收同比增长 7%，增速较 25Q1 放缓 11pc；25H1 其他非息收入 降幅环比收窄，对冲中收下降的影响。展望全年，营收、 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7] Core Views - The company's profitability momentum is recovering, and asset quality is improving [1][2] - The bank's revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders for H1 2025 decreased by 2.3% and increased by 0.2% year-on-year, respectively, showing improvements compared to Q1 2025 [2] - The non-performing loan ratio remained stable at 1.08% as of the end of Q2 2025, with a provision coverage ratio of 229% [1][5] Summary by Relevant Sections Profitability Improvement - In H1 2025, the bank's revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 2.3% and increased by 0.2% year-on-year, respectively, showing improvements of 1.3 percentage points and 2.4 percentage points compared to Q1 2025 [2] - Non-interest income decreased by 3.8% year-on-year, significantly improving from a 12.4% decline in Q1 2025, supported by a recovery in the bond market [2] - Impairment losses decreased by 12.2% year-on-year, further supporting profitability [2] Interest Margin Decline - The bank's interest margin for Q2 2025 decreased by 8 basis points to 1.51% [3] - The yield on assets decreased by 14 basis points to 3.27%, primarily due to industry-wide factors affecting market and loan rates [3] - The cost of liabilities improved by 6 basis points to 1.79%, benefiting from deposit rate reductions and optimized liability structure [3] Asset Quality Improvement - As of the end of H1 2025, the non-performing loan ratio and attention loan ratio remained stable and decreased by 5 basis points to 1.08% and 1.66%, respectively [4] - The generation rate of non-performing and attention loans improved significantly by 41 basis points year-on-year to 1.26% [4] - The improvement in asset quality is mainly attributed to the real estate and local government financing sectors [4] Future Outlook - The bank is expected to gradually release impairment pressure, supporting stable profitability [5] - Forecasted net profit growth for 2025-2027 is 1.56%, 3.60%, and 5.75%, respectively, with corresponding book values per share of 39.10, 41.68, and 44.45 yuan [5] - The target price is maintained at 25.82 yuan per share, corresponding to a 2025 price-to-book ratio of 0.66x, indicating a potential upside of 13% [5]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The document does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - Standing at the end of August and looking forward to September, investors are confused about the general direction of the bond market. The bullish sentiment has decreased, and operations have become more prudent. The capital market and the equity market are the core concerns of investors, and the preference for local bonds, high - grade urban investment bonds, and perpetual bonds has marginally weakened [1]. - Four mainstream expectations for the September bond market: concentrated expectations for the upper and lower limits of long - term treasury bond yields; decreased bullish sentiment in the bond market, more cautious operations, and an upward - moving interest rate oscillation center; changed overall expectations for the August economy, with increased expectations for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts; consistent preference for medium - and short - term interest - rate bonds and increased preference for convertible bonds [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 1. Investor Expectations are Divergent and Behavior is More Prudent - **Survey Overview**: A bond market questionnaire was released on August 26, 2025, and 114 valid questionnaires were received by August 28, covering various institutional and individual investors [9]. - **Long - term Treasury Bond Yield Expectations** - **10 - year Treasury Bonds**: 85% of investors think the lower limit of the 10 - year treasury bond yield is likely to be in the 1.65% - 1.75% range, and 51% think the upper limit is likely to be in the 1.80% - 1.85% range. Investors' expectations for an increase in the 10 - year treasury bond interest rate are gradually rising [11]. - **30 - year Treasury Bonds**: 41% of investors think the lower limit of the 30 - year treasury bond yield is likely to be in the 1.90% - 1.95% range, and 44% think the upper limit is likely to be in the 2.05% - 2.10% range. Investors are cautious about the potential further increase in the 30 - year treasury bond yield [13]. - **Economic Outlook for August**: Investor responses were relatively evenly distributed. 29% think the economy in August will show a "both year - on - year and month - on - month weakening" performance. Pessimistic expectations have decreased from 31% to 29% [15][17]. - **Expectations for Reserve Requirement Ratio Cuts and Interest Rate Cuts**: 42% of investors think there will be no further reserve requirement ratio cuts this year, and 46% think there will be no interest rate cuts. Most investors tend to postpone potential reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts to a more distant policy window [20]. - **Impact of the Equity Market on the Bond Market**: 70% of investors think the recent strengthening of the equity market will strengthen the stock - bond seesaw effect and suppress the bond market. However, some investors think the impact is short - term [24]. - **September Bond Market Outlook**: Investor expectations for the bond market are divergent. The proportions of investors expecting the bond market to "strengthen overall with a bull - flattened yield curve" and "weaken overall with a bear - steepened yield curve" are both 23%. The preference for the short - end has also decreased [25]. - **Bond Market Operations**: In September, most investors are neutral in practice. Holding cash and waiting is the mainstream view, with a marginal increase in the proportion of investors maintaining positions and taking profits [28]. - **Preferred Bond Types**: In August, investors maintained their positions in medium - and short - term interest - rate bonds and increased their preference for convertible bonds. The preference for local bonds, high - grade urban investment bonds, and perpetual bonds decreased slightly [30]. - **Main Bond Pricing Logic**: Monetary policy, capital market conditions, and the performance of the equity market are the core concerns of bond investors. This month, the attention to the equity market has increased significantly, while the attention to institutional behavior games and fiscal policy has decreased [32].

证券研究报告 | 浙商早知道 报告日期：2025 年 08 月 29 日 浙商早知道 2025 年 08 月 29 日 ： 张延兵 执业证书编号：S1230511010020 ： 021-80106048 ： zhangyanbing@stocke.com.cn 市场总览 重要点评 http://www.stocke.com.cn 1/3 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 ❑ 大势：周四上证指数上涨 1.1%，沪深 300 上涨 1.8%，科创 50 上涨 7.2%，中证 1000 上涨 1.5%，创业板指上涨 3.8%，恒生指数下跌 0.8%。 ❑ 行业：周四表现最好的行业分别是通信（+7.1%)、电子（+5.5%)、国防军工（+2.3%)、计算机（+2.1%)、非银金 融（+1.5%)，表现最差的行业分别是煤炭（-0.8%)、农林牧渔（-0.7%)、纺织服饰（-0.5%)、食品饮料（-0.4%)、 医药生物（-0.2%)。 ❑ 资金：周四沪深两市总成交额为 29708 亿元，南下资金净流出 204.4 亿港元。 ❑ 【浙商传媒互联网 冯翠婷/陈磊】神州泰岳（300002）公司点评：产品周期过渡期，新游有望 ...

业绩超预期，关注下一代国产芯片研发进程 ——寒武纪点评 ❑ 寒武纪发布 2025 年中报，营业总收入为 28.81 亿元，同比+4347.82%；归母净利 润为 10.38 亿元，由负转正（24H1 亏损 5.30 亿元）；扣非后归母净利润为 9.13 亿元，由负转正（24H1 亏损 6.09 亿元）。 单 Q2：营业总收入为 17.69 亿元，同比+4425.01%；归母净利润为 6.83 亿元，由 负转正（24Q2 亏损 3.03 亿元）；扣非后归母净利润为 6.37 亿元，由负转正 （24Q2 亏损 3.48 亿元）。 点评 ❑ 供需两端齐发力，财务表现亮眼 毛利率方面，25Q2 毛利率为 55.88%，较上一季度下降 0.10 pct，基本稳定。存货 方面，25H1 存货为 26.90 亿元（2024H1 仅 2.35 亿元），总体仍然保持高位，存 货储备有望支撑下游市场需求；合同负债方面，Q2 合同负债由 Q1 的 142 万元激 增至 5.43 亿元，反映下游需求旺盛。 ❑ 下游规模化部署，优势得到验证 云端智能芯片及加速卡收入 28.70 亿元，同比增长 4600.44 %，占营收比例 99.6 ...