投资要点 业绩预告密集期，关注游戏板块强基本面验证和兑现 证券研究报告 | 行业点评 | 传媒 周报：AI 应用快速调整期后已基本企稳 ——行业点评报告 行业评级: 看好(维持) 上周周报我们提示阿里千问、字节春节、DeepSeek 新论文后版本迭代等的催 化，同时由于 AI 应用快速调整期后已基本企稳，我们认为短期（节前）继续关 注字节、阿里、DeepSeek、腾讯（最新公布腾讯元宝 10 亿红包春节活动）等催 化，长期（26 年全年）紧抓 AI 应用有价值的方向及游戏等稳健的配置机会。1 月最后一周预告密集期，关注游戏板块强基本面验证和兑现。 AI 应用行情进入调整期但大厂投入仍持续 AI 应用在进入快速调整期后，1 月 22 日前后市场表现已基本企稳。腾讯元宝 1 月 25 日公布，春节推出 10 亿现金红包活动。北京市人大会议 1 月 25 日指出， 将全面实施"人工智能+"行动，建设国家人工智能应用中试基地。字节扣子 2.0 正式发布 Skills 功能，支持用户通过自然语言将开源工具或业务流程封装为可复 用技能，推动 AI 应用从 Prompt 工程向 Skills 工程升级，大幅降低企业 AI ...

证券研究报告 | 浙商早知道 报告日期：2026 年 01 月 26 日 浙商早知道 2026 年 01 月 26 日 ：王禾 执业证书编号：S1230512110001 ：021-80105901 重要观点 重要点评 ❑ 【浙商中药 王班/吴天昊/司清蕊】医疗器械 行业专题：手术机器人五问五答——20260122 http://www.stocke.com.cn 1/4 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 ❑ 【浙商策略 廖静池/王大霁/李沛】策略深度报告：A 股"春季躁动"演绎启示及下半场展望——20260122 ❑ 【浙商固收信用债 杜渐/杨语涵】债券市场专题研究：债市震荡，以静制动——20260124 浙商早报 1 重要观点 ：wanghe@stocke.com.cn 1.1 【浙商策略 廖静池/王大霁/李沛】策略深度报告：A 股"春季躁动"演绎启示及下半场展望— —20260122 1、所在领域 策略 2、核心观点 配置方面，降温之下市场或以短期震荡+降波为主，季度视角看，我们认为"系统性慢牛"依旧可期； 行业方面，1 月下旬 A 股步入年报业绩验证窗口期，市场风格或转向兼具业绩与弹性的"两电化非机" ...

把握春节前做多窗口 ——主动量化周报 核心观点 一方面是重要资金大幅减持沪深 300ETF 等权重板块，另一方面是市场成交额依旧攀 升至单日 3.12 万亿。市场上行方向不会改变，斜率下修给与了更多的参与机会。从机 会与拥挤的角度出发，可重点关注科创 50、化工、微盘股、新能源。 ❑ 如何看待权重股回调？ 重要资金可能正在调仓而非直接减仓，上行方向不变。1 月 15 日至 1 月 23 日期 间，中央汇金持股比例较高的沪深 300ETF、中证 500ETF 等 14 个重要宽基 ETF 累计资金净流出超 5500 亿元，且在融资保证金比例上调后，期间两市融资余额 并未进一步增长。在此背景下，上证指数反而上涨 0.24%，市场表现出极强韧 性：重要资金呈现出力度较强的集中流出，而融资资金增长相对缓慢，那么承接 资金从何而来？可以发现，虽然宽基类 ETF 大幅净流出，但行业主题类 ETF 反 而呈现出资金流入，1 月 15 日至 1 月 23 日累计资金流入达 880 亿元。同时，我 们观察到，截至 1 月 23 日，行业主题类 ETF 中，资金流与涨跌幅之间的平均滚 动 10 日相关系数上升至-0.03，接近转 ...

证券研究报告 | 债券市场专题研究 | 债券研究 债券市场专题研究 报告日期：2026 年 01 月 25 日 固收+视角下的公募基金四季报 ——债市专题研究 核心观点 截至 2025Q4，全市场公募管理规模和份额稳步提升，慢牛预期下权益类基金与债券类 基金规模走势依旧分化，公募基金被动化趋势延续，二级债基规模持续扩容，中长期 债基规模持续萎缩。 ❑ 过去一周权益市场延续震荡格局，表现弱于转债市场。 过去一周（2026/01/19~2026/01/23，下同），权益市场延续震荡，中小盘走势强于 大盘。转债中小盘指数表现优于大盘指数，中高价指数表现强势，低价转债走势 稳健。权益市场成交额高位回落，核心驱动因素从"主题博弈"切换到"盈利约束"， 缺乏业绩支撑的纯概念板块持续性削弱，而年报及业绩预告披露窗口的临近，使 资金对基本面确定性的关注度系统性提升，此前活跃的主题行情明显减弱。与此 同时，权益市场风格呈现中小盘走强于大盘的特征，带动股性较强的转债品种上 涨，转债中盘指数（+3.51%）、小盘指数（+3.24%）涨幅显著超越大盘指数（+1.45%）； 行业维度，材料、能源、工业走强。作为攻守兼备的投资品种，转债 ...

证券研究报告 钢铁周报：春季躁动，钢铁躁动 2026 年 01 月 25 日 行业评级：看好 | 分析师 | 沈皓俊 | 研究助理 | 张轩 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 邮箱 | shenhaojun@stocke.com.cn | 邮箱 | zhangxuan01@stocke.com.cn | | 证书编号 | S1230523080011 | | | 1 价格表现 | | | | 【浙商金属】钢铁周度数据(2026年1月25日) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 价格 | | | 周涨跌幅 | 年初至今涨跌幅 | | | 上证指数 | | 4.136 | 0.8% | 4.2% | | | 沪深300 | | 4.702 | -0.6% | 1.6% | | | SW钢铁指数 | | 2,897 | 7.3% | 8.9% | | 板块 | | SW普钢指数 | 2,688 | 6.5% | 6.8% | | | | SW特钢指数 | 5.280 | 7.6% | 9.8% | | | | SW冶钢原料指数 | ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic [1] Core Views - The report highlights a spring surge in the steel industry, indicating a positive market sentiment and potential growth opportunities [1] Price Performance - The SW Steel Index has increased by 7.3% week-on-week and 8.9% year-to-date, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index which rose by 0.8% and the CSI 300 Index which decreased by 0.6% [3] - Specific steel products show varied price changes, with rebar (HRB400 20mm) priced at 3,260 CNY/ton, down 1.8% week-on-week [3] - Iron ore prices have seen a decline, with the Platts index at 103 USD/ton, down 2.5% [3] Inventory - Total social inventory of the five major steel products stands at 867 million tons, reflecting a slight increase of 0.3% week-on-week but a decrease of 0.5% year-to-date [4] - Steel mill inventory is at 389 million tons, up 2.1% week-on-week and 0.8% year-to-date [4] - Port inventory of iron ore is reported at 16,763 million tons, increasing by 1.3% week-on-week and 5.7% year-to-date [4] Supply and Demand - The report indicates a steady production rate, with weekly output of the five major steel products being monitored [7] - The average daily molten iron production is projected to remain stable, reflecting consistent demand in the market [7]

——华锐精密点评报告 事件：1 月 22 日盘后，公司发布 2025 年年度业绩预增公告。 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 | 通用设备 ❑ 2025 年报业绩预告符合预期，预计 2025 年归母净利润同比增长 68%-87% 华锐精密(688059) 报告日期：2026 年 01 月 25 日 预计 2025 年实现归母净利润 1.8 亿元至 2.0 亿元，同比增长 68.29%-86.99%；扣 非归母净利润 1.78 亿元至 1.98 亿元，同比增加 70.64%-89.82%。 年报预告符合预期，人形机器人、AI 软件驱动公司二次腾飞 单 2025Q4，预计实现归母净利润 0.43 亿元至 0.63 亿元，同比增长 42.31%- 109.19%；扣非归母净利润 0.42 亿元至 0.62 亿元，同比增长 46.70%-115.87%。 2025 年公司业绩变化的主要系 1）下游需求回暖，同时公司产品性能不断提升， 品类日趋完善，渠道稳步开拓，产销量同比增长；2）针对碳化钨粉等主要原材 料价格上涨的情况，公司相应采取涨价措施，产品整体销售价格有所提升；3） 一方面公司积极践行提质增效行动，加强费用管控，另 ...

华锐精密(688059) 报告日期：2026 年 01 月 25 日 年报预告符合预期，人形机器人、AI 软件驱动公司二次腾飞 ——华锐精密点评报告 事件：1 月 22 日盘后，公司发布 2025 年年度业绩预增公告。 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 | 通用设备 ❑ 2025 年报业绩预告符合预期，预计 2025 年归母净利润同比增长 68%-87% 预计 2025 年实现归母净利润 1.8 亿元至 2.0 亿元，同比增长 68.29%-86.99%；扣 非归母净利润 1.78 亿元至 1.98 亿元，同比增加 70.64%-89.82%。 单 2025Q4，预计实现归母净利润 0.43 亿元至 0.63 亿元，同比增长 42.31%- 109.19%；扣非归母净利润 0.42 亿元至 0.62 亿元，同比增长 46.70%-115.87%。 2025 年公司业绩变化的主要系 1）下游需求回暖，同时公司产品性能不断提升， 品类日趋完善，渠道稳步开拓，产销量同比增长；2）针对碳化钨粉等主要原材 料价格上涨的情况，公司相应采取涨价措施，产品整体销售价格有所提升；3） 一方面公司积极践行提质增效行动，加强费用管控，另 ...

Core Insights - The central bank's policy operations may lead to an increase in expectations for loose monetary policy, with the recent weak performance of long-term government bonds providing more room for subsequent rebounds as the 10-year government bond yield approaches the lower limit of 1.80% [1] Group 1: Central Bank Policy and Bond Market Trends - The bond market's performance is significantly influenced by monetary policy, with the market's trajectory divided into three phases since 2024, reflecting the central bank's verbal and operational guidance [2][15] - In the first phase, the bond market experienced a bull run, with the central bank emphasizing the need to align long-term bond yields with growth expectations, leading to a market adjustment [2][17] - The second phase saw a stronger policy intervention from the central bank, which effectively cooled the previously enthusiastic bullish sentiment in the bond market [3][18] - The third phase indicated a self-adjustment in the bond market, with the 10-year government bond yield stabilizing within a narrow range of 1.80% to 1.90%, suggesting that the current yield levels may be acceptable to the central bank [4][19] Group 2: Expectations for Loose Monetary Policy - Signals of monetary policy easing have gradually emerged, with the central bank indicating that there is still room for rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions [5][20] - The government has accelerated the issuance of bonds, with cumulative issuance of 12,170 billion for 2026, the highest since 2021, indicating a proactive fiscal policy approach [5][24] - The liquidity needs of financial institutions are expected to rise, potentially leading to increased liquidity pressure on banks as government bond issuance continues at a rapid pace [5][24] Group 3: Long-term Yield Spread and Investment Opportunities - The performance of long-term government bonds has been significantly weaker than that of short-term bonds, creating a favorable environment for potential rebounds in long-term yields [8][26] - The spread between 30-year and 10-year government bonds reached approximately 50 basis points, the widest since 2023, suggesting that there may be opportunities for investors to capitalize on this spread as expectations for loose monetary policy grow [8][26]

Core Insights - The market has shown signs of "cooling down," with major broad indices exhibiting divergence. The weight indices, such as the Shanghai Composite and CSI 300, have fallen below the 20-day moving average, entering a phase of consolidation, while most growth indices remain above the 20-day line, indicating continued upward potential [1][4][54] - The current market state is characterized by "strong small caps and weak large caps," with weight indices in a consolidation phase and growth indices remaining active. This trend is expected to persist in the short term, while the overall nature of a "systematic slow bull" remains unchanged for the quarter [1][4][54] Market Overview - The market experienced a "cooling down" period from January 19 to January 23, 2026, with a noticeable decline in trading volume. The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.83%, while the Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 fell by 1.54% and 0.62%, respectively, both breaking below the 20-day moving average. In contrast, growth indices such as the CSI 500, CSI 1000, and National 2000 saw increases of 4.34%, 2.89%, and 3.33%, respectively, continuing to reach new highs in this bull market [2][12][53] - Sector performance showed that 24 out of 31 primary industries rose, with cyclical sectors like construction materials, oil and petrochemicals, steel, and real estate experiencing significant gains of 9.23%, 7.71%, 7.31%, and 5.21%, respectively. Meanwhile, the financial sector weakened, with banks and non-banking financials declining by 2.70% and 1.45% [15][53] Market Sentiment and Capital Flow - The average daily trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.7 trillion yuan, reflecting a decrease compared to the previous week. The main futures contracts showed a premium, indicating a bullish sentiment among investors [21][27] - The latest margin trading balance was 2.69 trillion yuan, down by 0.24% from the previous week. In terms of ETFs, the most significant inflow was seen in the non-ferrous metals sector, while the coal sector experienced the largest outflow [27][32] Valuation Insights - The dynamic valuation model indicates that the valuation levels of major indices have increased. As of January 23, 2026, the PE-TTM for the Shanghai Composite Index was 17.1, at the 97.03 percentile, while the Shenzhen Component Index was at 33.31, at the 87.97 percentile. The ChiNext Index had a PE-TTM of 42.98, at the 35.39 percentile [44][45] Strategic Recommendations - Based on the assessment of "market cooling, index divergence, and the dominance of growth," it is recommended to maintain medium-term positions without fear of short-term fluctuations and to participate in the upcoming market momentum. Short-term positions should be cautious of volatility and avoid chasing highs [5][55] - The strategy includes balancing medium-term positions across sectors with high economic prospects and relatively reasonable stock prices, particularly in the "two electric and non-mechanical" sectors (electronics, new energy, chemicals, non-banking, and machinery). Additionally, consider the CSI 500, CSI 1000, and National 2000 indices for relative returns [5][55]