思摩尔国际(06969) 报告日期：2025 年 07 月 16 日 25H1 雾化烟显著复苏，期待 HNB 订单弹性 ——思摩尔国际点评报告 投资要点 ❑ 雾化基本盘营收表现强劲、监管改善逻辑兑现，HNB 长坡厚雪 公司预告 25H1 业绩： 25H1 营收 60.13 亿（同比+18%，下同），表现强于市场预期；期内利润 4.43- 5.41 亿元，同比-21%至-35%，均值为 4.92 亿（-28%），此前公司公告 25Q1 利 润为 1.92 亿（-43.4%），若用均值计算则 25Q2 利润为 3 亿（-13%）、降幅显著 收窄。 ❑ 盈利端：激励费用、营销投入、法律服务费增加拖累 期内利润下滑主要系： 1）股权激励费用增加，25H1 较同期增长 1.76 亿，因此经调整后净利润 25H1 为 6.88-7.87 亿，同比-9%~+4%； 2）期内加大自有品牌海外市场开拓、分销开支增长较大； 3）法律服务相关费用增长较大。因此若还原费用口径、我们认为公司实际盈利 表现较优。 ❑ 收入端：雾化烟显著受益监管落地 公司所营雾化烟皆为合规产品，非法产品挤压的乱象正在被遏制，因此 25H1 收 入彰显弹性 ...

证券研究报告 | 公司更新 | 教育 ❑ AI 产品持续丰富，有望从公考拓展至事业单位、教资考试等场景打开空间。 第一阶段：老师内部提效，借助 AI，老师的面试点评时间可以从 20 分钟缩短到 5 分钟以内，可用率在 90%以上，大幅提升老师人效。第二阶段：从单一场景走 向系统化、多场景融合，2024 年 8 月 1 日，粉笔 AI 老师"粉笔头"正式上线， 截至 2025 年 4 月，AI 老师粉笔头累计会话量达到 4000 万次，用户功能满意度达 到 4.92 分。第三阶段：从应答走向主动、系统、个性化规划，2025 年 4 月 7 日粉 笔 AI 刷题系统班正式上线。 展望未来：①目前公司 AI 产品仅覆盖公考领域，未来有望打开事业单位、教资 考试等场景；②搭载自研大模型的粉笔 AI 硬件产品预计年内上市，有望进一步 完善场景、增强粘性、提升学习效果和学员体验感。 ❑ AI 笔面试产品市场空间测算：保守/中性/乐观假设下预计收入 6.0/11.6/18.8 亿 元，但利润率较高，公司潜在竞争格局较优有望稳住并快速提升份额。 考编培训领域市场规模尽管相对小于 K12, 但赛道内具备互联网或 AI 驱动思维 ...

证券研究报告 | 策略深度报告 | 中国策略 谁战胜了"金本位"？ ——资产、风格、行业与黄金深度复盘 核心观点 黄金作为非生息资产，其自身并不具有内生性的价值增长机制。2018 年以来，能跑赢 黄金的资产却屈指可数，背后或反映出美元信用体系弱化、全球地缘风险常态化、经 济不确定性升温等特征。相较于黄金，2018 年以来获得正收益的资产为个别虚拟货币、 正收益的风格为微盘股指，正收益的行业为贵金属，正收益的策略为小盘规模因子。 ❑ 黄金标价的大类资产 权益：2018 年 3 月以来，美股、印股、欧股跑输黄金幅度相对较小。股指名义增 长较强，但以黄金标价的实际走势偏弱，大多受流动性驱动。排除"货币幻觉" 之后，权益资产能够真实跑赢黄金并非易事。固收：中美国债期货均无优势。商 品：主要商品均跑输，贵金属＞工业金属＞能源品。虚拟资产：个别虚拟货币可 跑赢黄金，源于三大优势：支付便利度强、技术革新溢价、供给更稀缺。不动产： 全球主要经济体房价均跑输，美国、印度跑输黄金幅度相对较小。其中，美国或 受益于较强的经济韧性和需求拉动，印度或受益于人口红利。 ❑ 黄金标价的一级行业 2018 年至今：资源品和新动能相对较强，消 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report details the development of domestic bond ETFs, liquidity analysis of bond - making varieties in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges, and the investment application of bond ETFs [1]. - The scale of bond ETFs has expanded rapidly in the past year, exceeding 40 billion yuan for the first time. As of July 15, 2025, bond ETFs are mainly divided into interest - rate bond ETFs, credit - bond ETFs, and convertible - bond ETFs [1][11]. - Since July 10, 2025, 10 science - innovation bond ETFs have been established. The share of ETFs linked to the CSI Convertible Bond and Exchangeable Bond Index has increased the most, and the trading volume of CSI short - term financing - related ETFs has been the most active [2][17]. - Bond ETFs have asset - allocation and trading attributes. Their trading is more flexible, efficient, and leveraged, with high information transparency. The main strategies include primary - secondary market price arbitrage, intraday T + 0 trading, and pledge - repurchase leveraging [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 What are Bond ETFs? - **Domestic Bond ETF Overview**: In the past year, the scale of domestic bond ETFs has developed significantly, exceeding 40 billion yuan, but the variety is still single. As of July 15, 2025, there are 16 interest - rate bond ETFs, and 15 bond ETFs have a scale of over 1 billion yuan. The top five in scale are Fuguo Policy Financial Bond ETF, Haifutong Short - term Financing ETF, Boshi Convertible Bond ETF, E Fund Company Bond ETF, and Southern Shanghai Stock Exchange Company Bond ETF. Since July 10, 2025, 10 science - innovation bond ETFs have been established [11][15][16]. - **Recent Performance Tracking of Bond ETFs**: In terms of share changes, the share of ETFs linked to the CSI Convertible Bond and Exchangeable Bond Index has increased the most. In terms of share change rate, the share of ETFs with the Shanghai 30 - year Treasury Bond Index as the underlying index has increased by about 15 million shares (+21.74%). In terms of trading activity, CSI short - term financing - related ETFs have the most active trading volume [17]. 3.2 Exchange Bond Liquidity Analysis - Overall, the trading volume and liquidity of bonds on the Shanghai Stock Exchange are better than those on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange [19]. - **Shanghai Stock Exchange Interest - Rate Bond Market - Making Varieties**: In the past month, among the interest - rate bond market - making varieties on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, those maturing within 3 years have the most active trading volume, followed by those maturing within 3 - 5 years. The liquidity is negatively correlated with the standard term [20]. - **Shanghai Stock Exchange Credit - Bond Market - Making Varieties**: Among the credit - bond market - making varieties on the Shanghai Stock Exchange in the past month, those maturing over 10 years have the most active liquidity, followed by those maturing within 3 years [22]. - **Shenzhen Stock Exchange Interest - Rate Bond Market - Making Varieties**: Among the interest - rate bond market - making varieties on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in the past month, the average trading volume of varieties maturing within 3 years is the highest, followed by those maturing over 10 years [23]. - **Shenzhen Stock Exchange Credit - Bond Market - Making Varieties**: Among all the credit - bond market - making varieties on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in the past month, the varieties maturing within 3 - 5 years have the highest turnover rate, followed by those maturing over 10 years [24]. 3.3 Investment Application of Bond ETFs - Bond ETFs have the functions of asset allocation and trend trading. Compared with ordinary over - the - counter bond index funds, they have additional investment strategies [25]. - **Investment Strategies**: Asset allocation (holding strategy), trend (band operation), arbitrage strategy (discount - premium), arbitrage (spot - futures arbitrage), dividend strategy, event - driven strategy, intraday T + 0 strategy, and leverage strategy [27]. - **Advantages**: Primary - secondary market price arbitrage, intraday T + 0 trading, and the ability to use pledge - repurchase to add leverage [28].

证券研究报告 | 公司点评 | 服装家纺 流水符合预期，奥运投放 5 月起逐步落地 ——李宁点评报告 投资要点 ❑ 李宁发布 25Q2 流水，增速环比略有放缓，符合预期 Q2 李宁品牌全平台流水增长小单位数，环比 Q1 略有放缓。分渠道看，Q2 线下流水下降小单位数，其中直营中单位数下降，批发小单位数增长，直营弱于 加盟与去年下半年到今年上半年直营渠道数量调整有关，线上流水中单位数增 长，好于线下。折扣角度，线上线下同比有小单位数加深，库销比环比改善，下 降至 4 个月左右。 ❑ 跑步、综训领跑、杨瀚森相关产品有望逐步丰富 分品类看 Q2 流水，跑步、综训表现继续领跑，单季度流水仍有高单位数增 长，篮球品类承压，Q2 流水仍有 20%下滑，但考虑杨瀚森入选 NBA 开拓者队 对品牌声量带动，其目前主推驭帅系列篮球鞋，并会逐渐丰富相关产品；运动生 活品类 Q2 流水同比持平，小众品类如户外、羽毛球分别流水占比小单、中单位 数，仍然保持不错增长。 ❑ 奥运投入 5 月起逐步体现 ❑ 盈利预测与估值： 公司与中国奥组委已经完成正式签约，成为 2025-2028 年中国奥委会及中国 体育代表团官方体育服装合作伙伴，5 ...

Group 1: Green Finance Directory Overview - The latest "Green Finance Directory" clarifies the types of projects included in green finance and relevant national economic sectors, marking a significant step towards a classification system that aligns with China's real economy characteristics[11] - Compared to the 2024 version, the new directory adds two secondary sectors: "Green Trade" and "Green Consumption," resulting in 41 new tertiary projects, while removing 16 projects primarily from the fossil energy sector[23] - The directory retains the framework of the 2024 "Green Low-Carbon Transition Industry Directory," while expanding its focus on green initiatives[3] Group 2: Carbon Emission Reduction and Project Classification - The directory introduces a "carbon reduction benefit" label, categorizing projects into those with direct carbon reduction benefits, those contributing to low-carbon empowerment, and unlabeled projects, providing essential guidance for financial institutions[4] - By matching green finance support projects with real economic activities, the directory enhances the practical utility and effectiveness of the classification system, aiding financial institutions and enterprises in tracking green finance[19] - The directory's implementation is set for October 1, 2025, and will apply to various green financial products, significantly broadening the supply of green financial tools[26] Group 3: Risks and Challenges - Potential risks include slower-than-expected economic recovery, which could impact corporate ESG investments and consumer focus on ESG values[29] - Delays in the implementation of ESG-related policies may hinder the growth of green financial products and reduce investor confidence[29] - Market sentiment and preference volatility pose risks, as shifts in investor focus could lead to funding withdrawals from ESG investments[29]

证券研究报告 | 公司点评 | 服装家纺 流水增长领跑，超品店有序推进 ——361 度点评报告 投资要点 ❑ Q2 流水符合预期、继续领跑大众运动板块 在波动零售环境下，361 度 Q2 线上线下都保持较高速的增长，其中线下表 现来看，Q2 成人装线下增长 10%，儿童线下流水增长 10%，库销比 4.5-5.0X， 零售折扣率 7.0 折，连带率 2.5，经营质量保持稳定；电商方面，Q2 流水增速达 到 20%，其中预计童装增速快于大装，折扣保持在 4.0-4.5 折。 ❑ 商品全面推新，把握细分市场需求 ❑ 风险提示 消费风潮变化的风险，运动市场竞争加剧的风险 财务摘要 期内，公司继续积极推新，跑步方面竞速跑鞋飞飚 FUTURE2、注碳训练跑 鞋千行 1.0、堆量训练跑鞋疾风 6 代、漫跑鞋赤炎 MAX、爆沫 5、半时跑 2 陆续 上市，篮球方面则推出禅 7，运动生活方面推出释能骑行系列、羽毛球鞋推出制 胜 PRO、防晒推出小冰皮 2.0，儿童方面推出竞速跳绳鞋闪耀 1.0 和足球鞋猎 风，全面把握生意机会。 ❑ 赛事赞助积极铺开 品宣方面，公司二季度赞助青岛马拉松，禅 7 篮球鞋也作为阿隆戈登 NBA ...

证券研究报告 | 浙商早知道 报告日期：2025 年 07 月 16 日 浙商早知道 2025 年 07 月 16 日 ：王禾 执业证书编号：S1230512110001 ：021-80105901 ：wanghe@stocke.com.cn 市场总览 重要推荐 2、行业 http://www.stocke.com.cn 1/4 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 ❑ 大势：7 月 15 日上证指数下跌 0.42%，沪深 300 上涨 0.03%，科创 50 上涨 0.39%，中证 1000 下跌 0.3%，创业板 指上涨 1.73%，恒生指数上涨 1.6%。 ❑ 行业：7 月 15 日表现最好的行业分别是通信（+4.61%)、计算机（+1.42%)、电子（+0.79%)、家用电器 （+0.59%)、汽车（+0.58%)，表现最差的行业分别是煤炭（-1.92%)、农林牧渔（-1.62%)、公用事业（-1.6%)、 纺织服饰（-1.55%)、美容护理（-1.53%)。 ❑ 资金：7 月 15 日全 A 总成交额为 16350.05 亿元，南下资金净流入 38.24 亿港元。 ❑ 【浙商大制造中观策略 邱世梁/周向 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Anta Sports is "Buy" [6] Core Views - Anta Sports reported a short-term adjustment in its main brand, with FILA meeting expectations and other brands performing strongly [1] - The main brand's revenue in Q2 showed a low single-digit year-on-year growth, while H1 revenue grew in the mid-single digits [1] - FILA's Q2 revenue grew in the mid-single digits year-on-year, with H1 revenue increasing in the high single digits, aligning with expectations [2] - Other brands, including Descente and Maia Active, exhibited significant growth, with Descente's revenue increasing over 40% and Maia Active's over 30% [3] - The acquisition of the German outdoor brand Wolfskin for approximately 2.9 billion USD (about 21.2 billion RMB) is expected to enhance Anta's outdoor segment and market presence in Europe [4] - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to grow by 12%, 9%, and 8% respectively, with net profit expected to be 134 billion RMB, 148 billion RMB, and 161 billion RMB [5] Summary by Sections Main Brand Performance - Q2 revenue for the main brand grew in low single digits year-on-year, with H1 showing mid-single-digit growth; children's products performed slightly better than bulk products [1] - The company is implementing a store efficiency improvement plan for offline franchises and has appointed a new e-commerce head to enhance product strategy [1] FILA Brand Performance - FILA's Q2 revenue increased in the mid-single digits year-on-year, with strong performance in bulk and kids' categories [2] Other Brands Performance - Descente's revenue grew over 40%, KOLON over 70%, and Maia Active over 30%, with continued improvements in store efficiency and product line expansion [3] Acquisition Impact - The acquisition of Wolfskin is expected to strengthen Anta's position in the mid-range outdoor market and enhance its international presence [4] Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 796 billion RMB, 868 billion RMB, and 937 billion RMB respectively, with corresponding net profits of 134 billion RMB, 148 billion RMB, and 161 billion RMB [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [7] Core Views - The company reported an impressive performance for the first half of 2025, with a projected net profit attributable to shareholders ranging from 410 to 460 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 43.7% to 61.2% [1] - The company's growth is driven by strong product capabilities, with rapid customer and channel expansion contributing to performance increases [2] - The introduction of the high-end brand Motoliving has resulted in significant orders, enhancing product structure and profitability [3] - The trade agreement between the US and Vietnam highlights the competitive advantage of the company's production capacity in Southeast Asia, supporting high profitability [4] - The earnings forecast has been adjusted upwards, with expected revenues of 3.41 billion, 4.28 billion, and 5.20 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting strong growth rates [5] Summary by Sections Performance Overview - The company achieved a net profit of 2.41 billion yuan in Q2 2025, a year-on-year increase of 46.6%, exceeding market expectations [1] Customer and Channel Expansion - In 2024, the company expanded its customer base by 96, including 14 of the top 100 retailers in the US, with 88% of its US customers being retailers [2] - The number of store-in-store locations has increased significantly, reaching over 500, enhancing brand presence across North America [2] Product and Profitability - The launch of the Motoliving brand has led to orders exceeding ten million USD, with ongoing product innovation driving structural upgrades [3] - The company has improved its bargaining power with suppliers due to scale, allowing it to mitigate pricing pressures from tariffs [3] Trade Agreements and Production Capacity - The US-Vietnam trade agreement has created a favorable tariff environment for the company's operations in Vietnam, enhancing its competitive edge [4] Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 3.41 billion, 4.28 billion, and 5.20 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, with corresponding net profits of 910 million, 1.13 billion, and 1.38 billion yuan [5]