港股或已进入击球区 ——主动量化周报 核心观点 美元或将重回贬值趋势，看好恒生科技。 ❑ 如何理解美国通胀数据不及预期的市场影响？ 市场对美国经济景气的预期可能过度饱满，未来存在下修风险，美元或将重回贬 值趋势。美国 9 月 CPI 数据整体低于市场预期，引发市场降息预期升温。不过， 由于当前美联储整体转向更加关注就业市场，通胀数据的超预期或低于预期对降 息节奏的影响可能都不大，对于这份数据而言，更值得关注的可能是其公布后各 类资产的走势所隐含的市场预期位置。可以发现，虽然降息预期升温，但 10 年 期美债收益率反而走高，同时美元指数并未明显走弱，再结合美股和铜的大幅上 涨，我们认为，大类资产走势表明，市场实际上在上修降息预期的同时，也在大 幅上修美国经济景气预期。不过，考虑到美国财政赤字近期处于收缩趋势，美国 经济边际下滑的概率可能相对更高。在未来美国政府关门结束、恢复更新经济数 据后，市场当前较为饱满的经济预期可能将存在下修风险，从而驱动美债收益率 下行及美元贬值。 ❑ 近期资金面有何变化？ 游资参与热度筑顶，散户尚未大幅入场。从我们根据龙虎榜数据构建的游资活跃 度指标来看，该指标虽仍在边际上行，但上行斜 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since the third quarter, the increase in inter - bank certificate of deposit (CD) interest rates has been relatively small. Under the circumstances of the bottoming - out of the capital attribute and the weakening of the expectation attribute, inter - bank CDs may experience a "catch - up decline". The expected interest rate of 1 - year inter - bank CDs is raised to around 1.80% [1][4][13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1同业存单或存在"补跌"可能 - Since the third quarter, due to factors such as the strong rise of A - shares, the "anti - involution" policy, and the new public fund redemption rules, the yields of various bond varieties have increased, but the inter - bank CD interest rate has remained stable. The yields of the 10 - year and 30 - year old treasury bonds have increased by 14bp and 25bp respectively, while the 1 - year inter - bank CD interest rate of state - owned and joint - stock banks has only increased by 4bp [2][11]. - The reasons for the better performance of inter - bank CDs than other bonds are the stable and loose capital situation (DR007 has been around 1.40% for a long time) and the minimal impact of institutional behavior disturbances on the allocation demand for inter - bank CDs. The demanders of inter - bank CDs are mainly broad - based funds and bank self - operation, accounting for about 86% of the holdings. The new public fund redemption rules have little impact on the demand for inter - bank CDs [3][12]. - With the capital attribute bottoming out and the expectation attribute weakening, inter - bank CDs may experience a "catch - up decline". The DR007 is approaching the central bank's 7 - day reverse repurchase rate of 1.4%, and the short - term expectation of policy rate cuts has been revised down. The current spread between 1 - year inter - bank CDs and R007 may converge to within 40bp [4][13]. 3.2 狭义流动性 3.2.1 央行操作：中期流动性持续净投放 - In the short - term, the central bank's reverse repurchase net injection in the past week (10/20 - 10/24) was 781 billion yuan, with large net injections on Tuesday and Wednesday. As of October 24, the central bank's reverse repurchase balance was 867.2 billion yuan, still at a relatively high level [15]. - In the medium - term, in October, the due amount of outright reverse repurchases was 130 billion yuan, and the due amount of MLF was 70 billion yuan. The central bank achieved a net injection of 40 billion yuan in outright reverse repurchases and will achieve a net injection of 20 billion yuan in MLF on October 27 [16]. 3.2.2 机构融入融出情况：供需两旺 - **Supply side**: On October 24, the net funds lent by large - scale banks (flow concept) decreased by 613.9 billion yuan compared with October 17, but were still at a relatively high level in the same period of previous years. The net lending balance of money market funds increased by 19.88 billion yuan, and that of joint - stock banks increased by 22.13 billion yuan, both at a neutral level in the same period of previous years [19]. - **Demand side**: On October 24, the balance of bonds to be repurchased in the inter - bank pledged repurchase market decreased by 515.2 billion yuan compared with October 17. The market leverage ratio was 107%, a decrease of 0.33pct, and the leverage ratio of non - legal person products was 112%, a decrease of 0.65pct [24]. 3.2.3 回购市场成交情况：量价皆稳 - In the past week, the volume and price of the inter - bank pledged repurchase market were stable. The median daily trading volume was about 7.8 trillion yuan, a decrease of 206.9 billion yuan. The median R001 was 1.37%, an increase of 2bp. The liquidity friction was small [29]. 3.2.4 利率互换：基本持平 - The 1 - year FR007 IRS and SHIBOR 3 - month IRS interest rates were basically flat compared with last week. The median of the 1 - year FR007 IRS was 1.54%, in the bottom 10% since 2020, and the median of the 1 - year SHIBOR 3 - month IRS was 1.62%, in the bottom 24% since 2020 [36]. 3.3 政府债：未来一周政府债净缴款压力中性 3.3.1 下周政府债净缴款 - In the next week, the expected net payment of government bonds is 133.7 billion yuan, with a neutral overall pressure. Treasury bonds are expected to have a net repayment of 5.39 billion yuan, and local government bonds are expected to have a net payment of 187.7 billion yuan. The net payment pressure is relatively large from Wednesday to Friday [37]. 3.3.2 当前政府债发行进度 - As of October 24, the net financing progress of treasury bonds was 89.0%, an increase of 4.9% in the past week, with a remaining net financing space of about 734.9 billion yuan in 2025. The issuance progress of new local government bonds was 86.2%, with a remaining issuance space of 717.3 billion yuan. The issuance of refinancing special bonds has completed the annual task [38][41]. 3.4 同业存单：净融资规模明显回落，银行长期负债压力或可控 3.4.1 绝对收益率 - On October 24, the SHIBOR quotes for overnight, 7 - day, 1 - month, 3 - month, 6 - month, 9 - month, and 1 - year remained relatively stable, as did the yields of AAA - rated inter - bank CDs of commercial banks [42]. 3.4.2 发行和存量情况 - In the past week (October 20 - 24), the total issuance volume of inter - bank CDs was 963.2 billion yuan. In terms of issuance terms, the proportions of 1 - month, 3 - month, and 6 - month terms decreased, while those of 9 - month and 1 - year terms increased [44]. 3.4.3 相对估值 - On October 24, the spread between the 1 - year AAA - rated inter - bank CD yield and R007 was 21bp, in the 42% quantile since 2020. The spread between the 10 - year treasury bond yield and the 1 - year AAA - rated inter - bank CD yield was 17bp, in the 38% quantile since 2020 [47].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The cold wave has increased daily coal consumption, leading to a second round of market activity driven by power plant procurement [6] - The coal sector has seen a weekly increase of 1.46%, underperforming the CSI 300 index which rose by 3.24% [2] - Key monitored enterprises reported an average daily coal sales volume of 7.34 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 4.1% and a year-on-year increase of 2.8% [2] - The report anticipates that if heating demand increases earlier than expected, an additional 50 million tons of inventory may be required, potentially leading to a supply gap [6] Summary by Sections Coal Market Performance - The coal sector's performance was 1.46% up, lagging behind the CSI 300 index by 1.78 percentage points [2] - Major coal companies saw price increases, with Daqo Energy leading with a 37.27% rise [2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Average daily coal production from monitored enterprises was 7.15 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 3.5% but a year-on-year decrease of 2% [2] - Total coal inventory (including port storage) was 23.04 million tons, down 5.4% week-on-week and down 18.6% year-on-year [2] - Power and chemical industries showed a year-on-year coal consumption decrease of 2.6% and an increase of 15%, respectively [2] Price Trends - The price of thermal coal (Q5500K) was 684 RMB/ton, up 0.59% week-on-week, while imported thermal coal prices rose by 5.11% to 884 RMB/ton [3] - Coking coal prices also saw increases, with major ports maintaining stable prices [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on flexible thermal coal companies and those in turnaround situations in coking coal and coke sectors [6] - Key companies to watch include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical, and Yanzhou Coal Mining [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Ping An Bank is "Buy" and is maintained [6][7]. Core Views - The report highlights significant improvements in risk generation and profitability pressures for Ping An Bank in Q3 2025, with a focus on the recovery of balance sheet expansion and changes in corporate risk [1]. - The bank's revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025 decreased by 9.8% and 3.5% year-on-year, respectively, but showed a slight improvement compared to the first half of 2025 [2][3]. - The non-performing loan ratio remained stable at 1.05% at the end of Q3 2025, while the provision coverage ratio decreased by 9 percentage points to 230% [1][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1 to Q3 2025, Ping An Bank's revenue and net profit decreased by 9.8% and 3.5% year-on-year, with improvements of 0.3 percentage points and 0.4 percentage points compared to the first half of 2025 [2][3]. - The bank's average interest-earning assets decreased by 1.2% quarter-on-quarter, with significant reductions in interbank and bill assets by 6.4% and 41.1%, respectively [2][3]. Profitability - The net interest margin for Q3 2025 increased by 3 basis points to 1.79%, with a year-on-year decline narrowing by 7 basis points compared to Q2 2025 [3]. - Non-interest income for the first three quarters of 2025 showed a slight decline of 0.1%, while other non-interest income decreased by 24.1% year-on-year [2][3]. Risk Management - The non-performing loan ratio, attention loan ratio, and overdue loan ratio remained stable or improved, with the non-performing loan ratio at 1.05% and the attention loan ratio decreasing to 1.74% [5][19]. - The TTM generation rate for non-performing and attention loans significantly decreased by 52 basis points to 1.74%, indicating improved risk generation [5][20]. Retail Transformation - Retail loans showed a slight recovery with a 0.1% increase in average daily balance in Q3 2025, marking the first halt in decline since Q1 2024 [4]. - Wealth management business continued to grow, with wealth management income reaching nearly 4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16% [4]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit for Ping An Bank from 2025 to 2027 is expected to decline by 2.00% in 2025, followed by slight growth in subsequent years [6]. - The target price is maintained at 14.00 yuan per share, corresponding to a price-to-book ratio of 0.61x for 2025, indicating a potential upside of 21% from the current price [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market is still mainly in a volatile state. Investors should be cautious about blind optimism and adopt a strategy of entering and exiting on the left side without lingering. In terms of investment portfolios, a "dumbbell + small - band" approach should be used. The short - end can use credit bonds under 2 years and interest - rate bonds under 3 years as the allocation base, and the long - end can use 30 - year interest - rate bonds for small - band trading [1][3]. - The Fourth Plenary Session's communique implies positive expressions. The equity bull market may continue, and investors should have confidence and perseverance in it. It also has implications for GDP growth, policy measures, investment themes, and the importance of domestic demand and consumption [11]. - The US is facing economic pressure due to tariff frictions. The long - term employment pressure is significantly greater than the temporary inflation pressure. The Fed may implement "three consecutive rate cuts". The US has a strong motivation to ease relations with China, and investors should expect a final agreement to be reached [23]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Bond Market Weekly Observation 3.1.1 How to View the Enlightenment of the Fourth Plenary Session on the Capital Market? - The communique implies positive signals for the equity bull market. It emphasizes maintaining a reasonable GDP growth rate in the long - term, anticipating more policy measures, clarifying investment themes such as advanced manufacturing and technology, and increasing the importance of domestic demand and consumption. In the short term, the meeting may boost the stock market, and the bond market may adjust accordingly, but will later be affected by other factors [11][15][17]. 3.1.2 US Tariffs Lead to Recession, Weaker Bargaining Chips, and Strong Motivation for Easing - The fifth round of Sino - US economic and trade negotiations is taking place, with the location in an Asian city this time, closer to China's comfort zone. China's response to the US's TACO behavior is more mature, using rare - earth export and soybean import as countermeasures. The US is facing economic pressure, with employment pressure greater than inflation pressure, and the Fed may cut rates. The US has a motivation to ease relations with China, and a final agreement is expected [21][22][23]. 3.1.3 Bond Market Strategy: Enter and Exit on the Left Side without Lingering, and Adopt a "Dumbbell + Small - Band" Approach - The bond market is in a volatile state. A fast - in and fast - out strategy of buying on dips and taking profits on rallies is relatively effective. The 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bond active bonds have changed, and their core oscillation ranges are estimated. The investment portfolio should use a "dumbbell + small - band" approach, with short - end and long - end allocations as described above [27][28]. 3.2 Bond Market Asset Performance No specific summary content is provided in the given text for this part, only some related charts are mentioned. 3.3 High - Frequency Entity Tracking 3.3.1 Price - Related - This week, the Nanhua Agricultural Products Index and international crude oil prices rose, with prices of agricultural products showing a mixed trend. Brent crude oil rose by $4.93 per barrel, and WTI crude oil rose by $4.33 per barrel. Vegetable and meat prices had different changes, with some rising and some falling [39]. 3.3.2 Industry - Related - Industrial - related data improved slightly this week. The Nanhua Industrial Products Index rose, glass prices fell slightly, and coking coal prices rose. Supply - side data such as blast furnace and petroleum asphalt开工率 were better than last week [45]. 3.3.3 Investment and Real Estate - Related - This week, investment and real estate - related data on the demand side showed a slight recovery, with transaction volume data increasing, but the growth rate was lower than the historical average. The second - hand housing listing price index declined further, and the cumulative value of housing completion area increased compared to last month but was still lower than the historical average [55]. 3.3.4 Travel and Consumption - Related - This week, travel and consumption data were mixed, generally in line with the season. Subway passenger volumes in major cities increased, movie box - office revenues decreased, passenger car retail sales decreased but were higher than the historical average, and the number of domestic flights increased [61].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [4] Core Insights - The company has shown strong demand and stable profitability, with a year-on-year revenue growth of 1.16% and a net profit increase of 4.78% for the first three quarters of 2025. However, the third quarter saw a revenue decline of 3.99% year-on-year and a 5.63% quarter-on-quarter decrease [1][2] - The company's white carbon black products are in high demand, with sales of 93,000 tons in Q3 2025, a 1.4% year-on-year increase. The production capacity utilization remains high, and the demand for green tires is driving the need for white carbon black, especially with a 29.7% year-on-year increase in new energy vehicle production [2][3] - The company is advancing multiple new projects, including a 10,000-ton biomass silica project and a 3.02 million-ton thickener project, which are expected to contribute to long-term growth as new capacities are gradually released [3] Financial Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a net cash flow from operations of 516 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 106 million yuan. The gross margin for Q3 was 35.59%, with a net margin of 22.44% [2] - The forecasted net profits for 2025-2027 are 550 million, 670 million, and 720 million yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 15.2, 12.5, and 11.5 [4][6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 3.803 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 17.18%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 283 million yuan, up 19.80% year-on-year. In Q3 alone, revenue reached 1.372 billion yuan, a 22.12% increase year-on-year and a 5.76% increase quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 93 million yuan, reflecting a 21.27% year-on-year increase but a 5.92% decrease quarter-on-quarter [1][2] Summary by Sections Sales Growth - The company experienced sales growth across multiple product lines in Q3, with year-on-year changes of +4.4% for electrical insulation, +22.3% for new energy, +18.4% for optical films, and +50.1% for electronic materials. Quarter-on-quarter changes were +19.6%, +6.0%, +7.7%, and +10.3% respectively. Average prices varied, with notable declines in new energy and optical films due to raw material price drops [2] Capacity Expansion - The company is set to benefit from significant growth in AI server demand, which will create substantial opportunities for its upstream supply chain, including copper-clad laminates and high-performance resins. The company currently has a production capacity of nearly 5,000 tons for high-speed resins, with a new 20,000-ton project under construction expected to be operational in 2026, potentially quadrupling its capacity [3] Financial Forecast - The company has adjusted its net profit forecast for 2025 to 400 million yuan, while maintaining projections of 790 million yuan and 1.19 billion yuan for 2026 and 2027 respectively. The current price corresponds to a PE ratio of 48.5 for 2025, 24.7 for 2026, and 16.4 for 2027. The company is recognized as a platform-type new materials company with promising products in high-end optical base films and high-speed resins [4]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the presence of positive feedback mechanisms in the stock market, including herd behavior, incremental capital inflows, and leverage trading as amplifiers of trends [1][2][3] - It suggests maintaining high confidence in the current systematic slow bull market while cautiously avoiding increased volatility in high-positioned sectors [6][4] Understanding Positive Feedback - Positive feedback is characterized as a "negative entropy" accumulation, explaining why prices can temporarily deviate from fundamentals, leading to accelerated trends in both bull and bear markets [2][4] - The mechanisms driving positive feedback include behavioral psychology, trading systems, buyer incentives, and the cyclical behavior of listed companies [3][4] Switching Between Strategies - Investors are encouraged to switch between trend-following and reversal strategies based on market conditions, which can help identify signals of market overheating or cooling [4][5] Investment Recommendations - The current A-share market is in a systematic slow bull phase, with expectations of continued incremental capital inflows and wealth effects [6][28] - It is advised to maintain a balanced style allocation while increasing the decision weight of mean-reversion factors [6][42] Sources of Positive Feedback Mechanisms - Herd behavior and incremental capital inflows are driven by fear of missing out and the anxiety of being left behind, leading to a self-reinforcing cycle in bull markets [28][29] - Leverage trading acts as a trend amplifier, where rising stock prices lead to increased borrowing and further price increases [37][38] Market Dynamics - The report highlights that in bull markets, positive feedback can lead to significant price increases, while in bear markets, it can result in accelerated declines [26][40] - The relationship between leverage and market trends is crucial, as high leverage can exacerbate price movements in both directions [42][43]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5][10]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 2.6 billion yuan for Q1-Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 13%, with a net profit of 240 million yuan, up 2.5% year-on-year. In Q3 2025 alone, revenue was 860 million yuan, an 8% increase year-on-year, while net profit decreased by 4% to 57 million yuan [1][5]. - The offline channels showed strong growth, particularly in peripheral provinces, while online channels faced pressure due to changes in platform traffic policies and increased costs associated with promotional events [2][4]. - The gross margin remained stable at 55.55% in Q3 2025, with a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.25 percentage points. The sales expense ratio increased due to lower ROI from online channels [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the company achieved a gross margin of 55.55%, with a net profit margin of 6.58%, down 0.84 percentage points year-on-year. The sales/management and R&D/financial expense ratios were 42.43%, 4.64%, and 0.01%, respectively [3][4]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 3.736 billion, 4.484 billion, and 5.309 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 14.80%, 20.02%, and 18.40% respectively. Net profit is expected to reach 328 million, 435 million, and 567 million yuan in the same period [5][12]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on expanding its offline presence and enhancing its product offerings, particularly in the health product segment, which saw a revenue increase of 35.5% year-on-year in Q3 2025. The high-priced health series now accounts for over 50% of total revenue [4][9]. - The company is also investing in new platforms like Douyin and Xiaohongshu to optimize its online channel structure and improve growth and profitability [9][10]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from a low base effect from the previous year, with a strong performance in the upcoming promotional events. The brand ranks second in the sanitary napkin category on Tmall and first on Douyin [4][5]. - The strategic focus on profitability and channel expansion, particularly in peripheral provinces, is anticipated to enhance overall growth and profitability in the medium to long term [4][5].

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.2%, while the CSI 300 increased by 0.3%. The STAR Market 50 declined by 0.3%, and the CSI 1000 fell by 0.1%. The ChiNext Index saw a slight increase of 0.1%, and the Hang Seng Index rose by 0.7% [3][4] - The best-performing sectors included coal (+1.8%), oil and petrochemicals (+1.5%), social services (+1.1%), non-ferrous metals (+1.0%), and non-bank financials (+1.0%). The worst-performing sectors were telecommunications (-1.5%), real estate (-1.0%), building materials (-0.9%), electronics (-0.7%), and pharmaceuticals and biology (-0.6%) [3][4] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1,643.9 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 5.34 billion Hong Kong dollars from southbound funds [3][4] Important Insights - In the bond market, the report emphasizes maintaining a bullish stance during the current bull market, suggesting that when the underlying logic of the main sectors remains unchanged, the market shows strong sustainability and significant excess returns [5] - The report indicates that the technology sector is experiencing a phase of adjustment, while the fixed income perspective remains optimistic about equities [5] - The driving factors for the market include the unchanged underlying logic of the technology sector, insufficient improvement in the economic fundamentals, tightening domestic liquidity, and unexpected overseas risk events [5][6] - The report outlines an asset hierarchy during the bond market adjustment period, ranking them as follows: government bonds > certificates of deposit > local government bonds > perpetual bonds from banks > secondary capital bonds from banks [6][8] - It suggests that low-grade local government bonds may exhibit resilience beyond their credit ratings during liquidity-driven adjustments, and recommends a coupon strategy under liquidity pressure [6][8]