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可转债周度跟踪:如何看待转债指数新高-20250713
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-07-13 11:35
证券研究报告 | 债券市场专题研究 | 债券研究 债券市场专题研究 报告日期:2025 年 07 月 13 日 如何看待转债指数新高 ——可转债周度跟踪 核心观点 转债指数突破新高,后续演变依赖权益市场表现,市场规模快速缩量,供需矛盾持续 显著,建议投资者轻指数重个券,提高对转债价格区间的包容度,结合政策方向考虑 正股强势的平衡型转债以及短期内不赎回的偏股型品种。 ❑ 风险提示 经济基本面改善不足;国内流动性收紧;海外风险事件超预期;历史经验不代表 未来 分析师:陈婷婷 执业证书号:S1230525050001 chentingting01@stocke.com.cn 相关报告 1 《分歧加大,持筹待机》 2025.07.12 2 《把握布局机会》 2025.07.12 3 《三季度海外宏观主线再校 准》 2025.07.10 http://www.stocke.com.cn 1/8 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 ❑ 过去一周,权益市场上冲 3500,带动转债指数突破新高。转债价格中位数已经达 到 125 元,上行至历史极值。虽然当前转债所经历的供需压力很大,但是我们观 察到 7 月强赎的意愿有所增高。在 ...
宏观经济周度高频前瞻报告:经济周周看:本周经济景气度总体平稳-20250713
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-07-13 10:56
证券研究报告 | 宏观深度报告 | 中国宏观 经济周周看:本周经济景气度总体平稳 ——宏观经济周度高频前瞻报告 核心观点 基于前期报告《经济周周看:整体向上,生产偏强,需求涨跌互现——宏观经济周度 高频前瞻报告》中构建的生产端景气周度跟踪框架,我们进一步编制 GDP 周度高频 景气指数,更好地综合把握经济景气强度及变化方向。 从我们构建的 GDP 周度高频景气指数历史回溯来看,GDP 周度高频景气指数在趋势、 节奏上与月度 GDP 的趋势节奏有较好的拟合度,例如 2024 年二季度的回落、三季度 筑底与四季度的大幅改善得到较好拟合,在拐点上有较好提示。未来随着高频数据质 量的进一步完善,有望更好地拟合周度 GDP,使其在弹性强度上更为准确。 GDP 周度高频景气指数本周(截至 7 月 12 日)为 5.8%,与上周修订值 5.8%基本持 平,或表征经济增长景气相对平稳。 从生产端来看,服务业、工业高频指标较上周涨跌互现。 从需求端来看,消费下行,固投整体走弱,出口韧性尚可。 从价格端来看,本周物价边际回升,工业品价格回暖。 ❑ 风险提示 经济结构转型,传统指标对经济的拟合度下降; 地缘政治博弈强度超预期。 宏 ...
流动性与机构行为跟踪:关注税期扰动下央行的配合程度
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-07-13 10:46
证券研究报告 | 债券市场专题研究 | 债券研究 债券市场专题研究 报告日期:2025 年 07 月 13 日 关注税期扰动下央行的配合程度 ——流动性与机构行为跟踪 核心观点 预计在央行短期逆回购投放以及买断式逆回购共同配合下,税期资金波动可能较小。 ❑ 流动性:资金小幅收紧,未来一周关注税期扰动 过去一周,资金明显收紧,银行体系净融出规模也明显减少。受到跨季后央行持 续净回笼影响,大行净融出规模回落至 4.65 万亿,周四可以看到全市场资金情绪 明显收紧;但是周五资金紧张程度缓解,临近税期的背景下,或是出于市场对月 中央行买断式逆回购落地的期待。 未来一周,需关注周一及周二政府债净缴款扰动、周三及周四税期走款扰动,周 内资金并不平静;但是,预计在央行短期逆回购投放以及买断式逆回购共同配合 下,资金波动可能较小。 ❑ 机构行为:交易盘需求走弱,普信债和二永债主要非银买盘减少 过去一周,交易盘卖债,配置盘承接;以基金为代表的主要非银买盘净买入普信 债和二级债规模明显减弱;目前债基久期还在震荡抬升,但是在资金收紧和对税 期的忌惮下,市场加杠杆需求冲高回落。 展望后续,资金和权益市场对于债市的扰动增加,而前期基金 ...
钢铁周报:“反内卷”信号将带动行业走出底部-20250713
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-07-13 09:56
行业评级:看好 2025 年 07 月 13 日 | 分析师 | 沈皓俊 | 研究助理 | 张轩 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 邮箱 | shenhaojun@stocke.com.cn | 邮箱 | zhangxuan01@stocke.com.cn | | 证书编号 | S1230523080011 | | | 证券研究报告 钢铁周报:"反内卷"信号将带动行业走出底部 1 | | 【浙商金属】 | | 钢铁周度数据 | | (2025年7月13日) | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 价 格 | | | | 周涨跌幅 | | 年初至今涨跌幅 | | | | 上证指数 | | 3 , | 510 | | 1 1% . | 4 . | 7% | | | 沪深300 | | 4 , | 015 | | 0 8% . | 2 . | 0% | | 板 | SW钢铁指数 | | 2 , | 317 | | 4 4% . | 10 . | 2% | | 块 | | SW普钢指数 | 2 , ...
煤炭行业周报(7月第2周):社会库存首次下降,夏季需求持续可期-20250713
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-07-13 08:09
Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" [1] Core Views - Social inventory has decreased for the first time, and summer demand is expected to remain strong. Domestic power plants are increasing daily coal consumption, leading to rising coal prices. Policies to control production and improve quality are being emphasized, supporting the fundamentals of both coking coal and thermal coal [6][29] - The report highlights that the overall level of social inventory is stable, with a significant increase in daily consumption expected due to hot weather and ongoing replenishment needs at power plants. The coking coal sector may see marginal improvements in performance due to potential declines in capacity utilization driven by environmental factors [6][29] Summary by Sections Coal Sector Performance - The coal sector saw a weekly increase of 0.71%, underperforming the CSI 300 index, which rose by 0.82%. A total of 34 stocks in the sector increased in price, while 3 declined. Meijin Energy had the highest weekly increase at 10.8% [2] - Key monitored enterprises reported an average daily coal sales volume of 7.21 million tons from July 4 to July 10, 2025, a week-on-week increase of 3.7% and a year-on-year increase of 2.8% [2] Price Trends - As of July 11, 2025, the price of thermal coal (Q5500K) in the Bohai Rim was 662 CNY/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 0.3%. The price index for imported thermal coal rose by 1.21% to 750 CNY/ton [3] - The price of coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1310 CNY/ton, up 4.8% week-on-week, while the price of metallurgical coke remained stable at 1320 CNY/ton [4] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The cumulative coal sales volume for key monitored enterprises was 131.73 million tons as of July 10, 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 3.8%. The demand from the power and chemical industries showed a year-on-year decrease of 3% and an increase of 16.6%, respectively [2][28] - The report indicates that the daily coal consumption in the power sector is expected to rise significantly, with the total social inventory of coal at 32.86 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 2.6% [2][28] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-dividend thermal coal companies and coking coal companies that may experience a turnaround. Key companies to watch include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and Meijin Energy among others [6][29]
寻找楼市复苏线索系列报告3之【香港】:东方之珠,否极泰来
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-07-11 09:13
行业评级:看好 2025年7月 东方之珠,否极泰来 ——寻找楼市复苏线索系列报告3 之【香港】 证券研究报告 分析师 杨凡 邮箱 yangfan02@stocke.com.cn 电话 13916395118 证书编号 S1230521120001 摘要 p 香港经济、人口、政策及金融环境全面改善,为楼市复苏提供坚实基础。 p 政策松绑带动新房成交放量,二手房市场分化显著。 p 香港楼市复苏启示:政策、人口与金融需协同 2 • 经济与产业优势:香港作为全球第三大金融中心,具有国际航运枢纽、离岸人民币枢纽、亚太财富管理中心三重地位,是中国和国际接轨的重要窗口。金融服务占 GDP近25%,贸易物流、专业服务及旅游业共同支撑经济复苏,2023年GDP增速回暖。 • 人才与资本双轮驱动:2023年人口触底反弹至750万,得益于"高才通""优才计划"等引进人才政策,吸引大量中产及高学历人才。除此之外,中美博弈加剧, 打算赴美的留学生被限制,而香港教育资源优越、欢迎留学生赴港留学进一步吸引人才。此外,香港个税(薪俸税)制度以低税率、宽免额高、税基窄为核心竞争 力,对吸引全球人才具有显著优势。中美博弈下国际资本回流,2025 ...
器械、药店2025年H2策略及Q2前瞻:需求恢复,拐点将至
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-07-11 07:31
证券研究报告 需求恢复,拐点将至 ——器械&药店2025年H2策略及Q2前瞻 行业评级:看好 2025年7月11日 分析师 吴天昊 分析师 司清蕊 邮箱 wutianhao@stocke.com.cn 邮箱 siqingrui@stocke.com.cn 证书编号 S1230523120004 证书编号 S1230523080006 医疗器械 01 2 医疗器械:需求恢复,拐点将至 u 板块复盘:院内招标持续恢复、估值仍处于底部区间,2025年下半年业绩恢复下或拉动估值弹性。 u 2025H2周期判断: 医用设备:院内招标恢复,看好2025年H2业绩恢复。2025年上半年院内招标持续恢复,渠道库存逐步出清,看好招标恢复以及 海外拓展拉动下,2025年H2收入利润增长恢复; 高值耗材:看好国产替代空间极大、集采完成且渠道库存调整完成企业的业绩弹性。2024年应收账款周转率创2020年以来新高, 大品类集采完成,企业逐步走出集采影响、渠道库存调整逐步完成,进入稳步放量以及新品拉动周期; 家用医疗:成长性有望恢复。消费环境恢复以及新品投入持续,有望带来成长性恢复; 低值耗材/IVD:看好新品拉动/技术壁垒较高企业。 ...
浙商早知道-20250711
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-07-10 23:30
Market Overview - On July 10, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.5%, the CSI 300 increased by 0.5%, the STAR 50 fell by 0.3%, the CSI 1000 rose by 0.3%, the ChiNext Index increased by 0.2%, and the Hang Seng Index rose by 0.6% [5][7] - The best-performing sectors on July 10 were real estate (+3.2%), oil and petrochemicals (+1.5%), steel (+1.4%), non-bank financials (+1.4%), and coal (+1.1%). The worst-performing sectors were automobiles (-0.6%), media (-0.5%), defense and military industry (-0.4%), electronics (-0.3%), and utilities (-0.3%) [5][7] - The total trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1,494.1 billion yuan, with a net inflow of southbound funds amounting to 2.902 billion HKD [2][7] Important Recommendations - The report recommends the company "Sanqi Interactive Entertainment" (002555) based on the potential for valuation recovery driven by major games like "Douluo Dalu: Hunting Soul World" [3][8] - The expected revenue for the company from 2025 to 2027 is projected to be 19,140 million yuan, 21,949 million yuan, and 25,260 million yuan, with growth rates of 9.74%, 14.68%, and 15.08% respectively. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 2,758 million yuan, 3,276 million yuan, and 3,788 million yuan, with growth rates of 3.17%, 18.80%, and 15.62% respectively [8] Key Insights - In June, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) year-on-year growth rate was 0.1%, better than the previous value of -0.1%, primarily influenced by the rise in industrial consumer goods prices. The Producer Price Index (PPI) year-on-year growth rate recorded -3.6%, lower than market expectations [9][11] - The carbon market trading price in the first half of 2025 fell nearly 30%, from 97 yuan/ton to below 68 yuan/ton, mainly due to energy price fluctuations and policy easing. However, the price began to recover in June, exceeding 75 yuan/ton, driven by rising crude oil prices and seasonal demand [11][12]
债市专题研究:三季度海外宏观主线再校准
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-07-10 10:55
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Non - farm data cooled the interest - rate cut trading significantly, and the macro mainline returned to Trump's tariff policy. Trump's administration's "apparently tough but actually soft" stance strengthened the TACO consensus, but Trump may not always "follow the rules", so the risk of TACO trading reversal should be watched, and attention should be paid to the progress of EU - US and China - US trade negotiations [1]. - The better - than - expected non - farm employment data in June showed that the US labor market remained resilient, and the sufficient condition for the Fed to cut interest rates was not triggered, leading to a significant cooling of interest - rate cut trading. The trading mainline may return to Trump's tariff policy [12][15][16]. - After the expiration of the reciprocal tariff suspension period, Trump's tariff policy was "apparently tough but actually soft", further strengthening the market's TACO trading consensus [20][22]. - In the third quarter, the macro trading mainline may revolve around TACO trading. The potential risk was that Trump might become tougher on tariff policy after domestic pressure eased, which could lead to a reversal of TACO trading [22][31]. - The next - stage macro trading mainline still revolved around Trump's tariff policy. There was a possibility of switching from TACO trading to interest - rate cut trading in September. Attention should be paid to the EU - US trade negotiations and the China - US trade negotiations after August 12 [4][32]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Third - Quarter Overseas Macro Mainline Recalibration 3.1.1 Non - farm Data and Interest - rate Cut Trading - The US added 147,000 non - farm jobs in June, higher than the market expectation, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%, indicating the resilience of the US labor market. The government sector's employment increase supported the data, while the private sector's employment declined, showing some structural problems [12]. - Inflation was a necessary but not sufficient condition for the Fed to cut interest rates, while a significant weakening of the labor market was a sufficient condition. The good labor data in June likely closed the door for a July interest - rate cut, and interest - rate cut trading cooled [15][16]. 3.1.2 Trump's Tariff Policy - Before the expiration of the reciprocal tariff suspension period on July 9, Trump's administration adopted a "tough - and - soft" negotiation strategy. It sent tariff letters to 22 countries in two batches on July 7 and 9 [2][20]. - In terms of countries, the first two batches of letter - receiving countries were mainly Asian countries, with a "warning" meaning. In terms of tax rates, except for Brazil, only three countries had higher new tariff rates, and the increase was small. In terms of the implementation period, the new tariffs would be implemented on August 1, about three weeks later than the original plan [20][21]. - Trump's "apparently tough but actually soft" tariff policy strengthened the market's TACO trading consensus. After the letters were sent, the stock markets in Japan and South Korea showed a "bad news is good news" trend [22]. 3.1.3 Potential Risks of TACO Trading Reversal - Compared with April, Trump's domestic pressure had eased. The US financial market had recovered, and the "Great Beauty" bill had passed, which was a major victory for Trump [22][23][25]. - After the "Great Beauty" bill was passed, Trump's administration might shift its policy focus to tariffs to increase tariff revenue, promote re - industrialization, and strengthen the "victory narrative" for the 2026 mid - term elections [27]. - Trump's administration showed a tendency to weaponize tariff policy, such as significantly increasing the tariff rate on Brazil, which might lead to a reversal of TACO trading [29][31].
浙商证券浙商早知道-20250710
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-07-09 23:30
Market Overview - On July 9, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.13%, the CSI 300 decreased by 0.18%, the STAR Market 50 dropped by 0.89%, the CSI 1000 declined by 0.27%, while the ChiNext Index rose by 0.16%. The Hang Seng Index decreased by 1.06% [4]. - The best-performing sectors on July 9 were Media (+1.35%), Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry and Fishery (+0.65%), Retail (+0.48%), Pharmaceutical and Biological (+0.43%), and Social Services (+0.42%). The worst-performing sectors were Non-ferrous Metals (-2.26%), Basic Chemicals (-0.85%), Electronics (-0.82%), Defense and Military Industry (-0.73%), and Home Appliances (-0.64%) [4]. - The total trading volume of the A-share market on July 9 was 15,274.2 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 9.257 billion HKD from southbound funds [4]. Important Recommendations Company: Ping An Electric (001359) - The company is recognized as a leader in mica insulation materials, with continuous breakthroughs in integrated and synthetic new products [5]. - The recommendation logic highlights that the main business is steadily growing, and new products are consistently expanding. The market perceives mica insulation materials as a niche segment with limited growth potential, but emerging demands from the new energy sector, such as lithium battery thermal runaway protection and energy storage, are expected to drive rapid industry growth [5]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 1,288 million, 1,547 million, and 1,853 million yuan, with growth rates of 21.85%, 20.11%, and 19.78% respectively. Net profit forecasts are 271 million, 322 million, and 386 million yuan, with growth rates of 24.88%, 18.82%, and 19.88% respectively [5]. Company: 37 Interactive Entertainment (002555) - The company is expected to see valuation recovery driven by the success of major games such as "Douluo Dalu: Soul Hunting World" [6]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are 19,140 million, 21,949 million, and 25,260 million yuan, with growth rates of 9.74%, 14.68%, and 15.08% respectively. Net profit projections are 2,758 million, 3,276 million, and 3,788 million yuan, with growth rates of 3.17%, 18.80%, and 15.62% respectively [9].