证券研究报告 | 浙商早知道 报告日期：2025 年 12 月 05 日 浙商早知道 2025 年 12 月 05 日 ： 张延兵 执业证书编号：S1230511010020 ： 021-80106048 ： zhangyanbing@stocke.com.cn 市场总览 重要推荐 ❑ 【浙商汽车 刘巍/白浪】超捷股份（301005）公司深度：车用紧固件隐形冠军，商业航天打开成长空间—— 20251204 重要观点 重要点评 ❑ 【浙商大制造中观策略 邱世梁/陈红】汽车零部件 行业深度： 具身智能与新能源车：此时此刻恰如彼时彼刻— —20251204 http://www.stocke.com.cn 1/4 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 ❑ 大势：周四上证指数下跌 0.1%，沪深 300 上涨 0.3%，科创 50 上涨 1.4%，中证 1000 指数收盘与周三持平，创业 板指上涨 1.0%，恒生指数上涨 0.7%。 ❑ 行业：周四表现最好的行业分别是机械设备（+0.9%)、电子（+0.8%)、国防军工（+0.6%)、通信（+0.5%)、有色 金属（+0.3%)，表现最差的行业分别是综合（-2.1%)、美 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic [2][47]. Core Insights - The report draws parallels between the current state of the humanoid robot industry and the electric vehicle (EV) industry in 2019, suggesting that similar macroeconomic conditions and industry stages could lead to significant investment opportunities [5][6]. - The humanoid robot market is projected to reach $700 billion by 2030, while the EV market is expected to be approximately $547.2 billion by 2024 [5][6]. - The report emphasizes the importance of core components and domestic manufacturers in both industries, highlighting that the core components of humanoid robots still have considerable upside potential [7][38]. Summary by Sections Macroeconomic Context - The macroeconomic environment in 2019 and 2025 shows similarities, with both periods experiencing stable liquidity and trade tensions between the US and China [10][14]. - The report notes that the impact of trade tensions has diminished over time, with the capital market showing resilience despite fluctuations [15][16]. Humanoid Robot Industry - The humanoid robot industry is at a critical juncture, with significant advancements in technology and production capabilities expected to drive growth [19][33]. - The report identifies key players in the humanoid robot sector, including Tesla, which is poised to lead the market similar to its role in the EV industry [27][30]. Investment Opportunities - Investment opportunities are categorized into core components and domestic manufacturers, with a focus on identifying companies with strong fundamentals and market positioning [34][39]. - The report suggests that the core components of humanoid robots are likely to see price increases, similar to the trajectory observed in the EV sector [38]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights the rapid growth of domestic manufacturers in the humanoid robot space, indicating a shift from concept validation to commercial production [31][33]. - It emphasizes the importance of market timing, particularly regarding the listing of new players in the humanoid robot market, which could mirror the trends seen in the EV industry [41].

证券研究报告 | 策略专题研究 | 中国策略 策略专题研究 报告日期：2025 年 12 月 04 日 公募新规下，基金经理如何选择最优业绩比较基准？ ——案例分析：国投瑞银新丝路 核心观点 公募基准新规明确了业绩基准的选取原则和信披规范，突出并强化业绩基准的日常约 束作用。预计 2026 下半年将有相当比例的权益类公募基金存在调整业绩基准的需求， 因此我们构建出独家的"选择基准工具表"，并以"国投瑞银新丝路"作为分析案例， 从跑赢胜率、跑赢含金量、匹配程度、跑赢程度、超额稳定性、配平压力六大维度拆 解并筛选出最适合其参照的业绩基准。从案例综合结果来看，我们认为国投瑞银新丝 路最适合参照的业绩基准是中证 800。此外，国证 1000、中证 A500、中证 500、中证 全指等也可纳入备选，需要基金管理人进行更全面的考量。 ❑ 维度一：跑赢胜率——相对于基准的年跑赢率 我们统计基金自成立以来，跑赢所有一类库比较基准年度数量的占比，即基金的 年跑赢率，作为跑赢胜率指标。理想目标是年跑赢率越高越好，高胜率表明基金 能够在多数市场环境下具备持续战胜基准的能力。 ❑ 维度二：跑赢含金量——业绩基准的夏普比 单纯的高胜率 ...

证券研究报告 | 金融工程月报 回调或是风险资产的买入时机 ——2025 年 12 月大类资产配置月报 核心观点 对于当下全球资产定价面临的美国经济超预期走弱风险及日元加息风险，我们认为影 响均有限，若出现回调则有望带来风险资产的买入良机。 ❑ 美国经济衰退及日元加息两大宏观风险的影响可能都相对有限，若风险资产因此 出现回调，可能带来较好买入机会。 从历史统计结果来看，2022 年以来，美国财政赤字约领先服务业 PMI 就业分项 4 个月左右，前期美国财政的边际紧缩可能导致即将公布的 11 月非农等硬数据低 于市场预期，这可能带来脉冲性的衰退交易。不过，近期财政力度趋于收缩，部 分源自政府关门抑制了支出，财政部发债所得资金淤积在 TGA 账户中。而在政府 重新开门后，我们已经观察到 TGA 账户余额的下降，财政有望重新转向扩张，对 应经济预期即便阶段性下修，也可能迅速趋于稳定。因此，若出现衰退交易，反 而可能带来风险资产较好的买入机会。此外，近期日本央行暗示将于 12 月加息亦 引发市场担忧，但从数据上看，CME 日元兑美元期货非商业空头净持仓数量与美 元兑日元汇率之间存在显著相关性，而自 2024 年 7 ...

Group 1 - The core logic of the report emphasizes optimism for the communication sector in 2026, focusing on opportunities in computing power, telecom operators, and satellite internet [10][11] - The report suggests a stock selection strategy that includes recommendations for companies in various segments such as networking, optical devices, liquid cooling, and copper connections [11] - The report highlights the expected dividend yields for major telecom operators, with China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom projected to have dividend yields of approximately 6.3%, 5.5%, and 5.1% respectively for Hong Kong stocks [11] Group 2 - The report identifies operational risks related to AI demand growth not meeting expectations, which could slow down the conversion speed of enterprise-level AI solutions and affect infrastructure procurement [12][13] - It discusses the potential deterioration of the competitive landscape in AI hardware, as increased capital expenditure by global tech companies may lead to intensified competition [18][19] - The report notes risks associated with the satellite internet sector, particularly regarding the uncertainty of capital expenditure and the maturity of the industry [23][24] Group 3 - The report provides a risk assessment for recommended stocks, including major telecom operators, which are characterized by stable growth, high dividends, and technological growth [30] - It highlights specific risks for individual companies, such as the potential decline in gross margins for Zhongji Xuchuang due to increased competition in the 800G market [31][32] - The report also addresses the risks for companies like Yingwei and Kexin, focusing on market competition and the challenges of expanding into overseas markets [38][40]

证券研究报告 | 债券市场专题研究 | 债券研究 债券市场专题研究 报告日期：2025 年 12 月 03 日 交易性择时每日一图版本更新说明 ——债市专题报告 核心观点 本报告在原有交易性择时体系基础上进行多资产扩展。自 9 月以来，交易性择时策略 在趋势阶段对利率下行行情形成了较高覆盖度，在回调与震荡时期则主动收敛暴露， 体现出右侧确认与趋势跟随框架下的稳健性。本次迭代进一步引入权益、黄金与商品 择时信号，实现多市场间的交叉验证，有望提升利率交易方向识别的有效性、降低择 时失真与回撤水平，并在复杂宏观环境下增强策略执行与风险管理能力。未来策略优 化将增强空头过滤功能，并加强复合信号在震荡阶段的稳定性。 ❑ 9 月以来交易性择时信号回顾 交易性择时模型在利率下行周期保持了对趋势行情的高敏感度，各类信号在关键 阶段呈现出较强一致性，并在多个交易窗口连续触发复合信号，在捕捉利率主升 段方面表现突出。近期随着利率企稳回调，模型信号明显收敛甚至短暂消失。该 现象并非策略失效，而是由于策略本身逻辑并不承担主动做空判断，而是基于右 侧确认选择降低暴露度，以避免震荡期的无效交易和频繁换手，更好地体现了策 略在复杂行情中的 ...

证券研究报告 | 浙商早知道 报告日期：2025 年 12 月 03 日 浙商早知道 2025 年 12 月 03 日 ：王禾 执业证书编号：S1230512110001 ：021-80105901 ：wanghe@stocke.com.cn 市场总览 重要推荐 重要观点 http://www.stocke.com.cn 1/6 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 ❑ 大势：12 月 2 日上证指数下跌 0.42%，沪深 300 下跌 0.48%，科创 50 下跌 1.24%，中证 1000 下跌 1%，创业板 指下跌 0.69%，恒生指数上涨 0.24%。 ❑ 行业：12 月 2 日表现最好的行业分别是石油石化（+0.71%)、轻工制造（+0.55%)、家用电器（+0.43%)、建筑材 料（+0.32%)、通信（+0.27%)，表现最差的行业分别是传媒（-1.75%)、有色金属（-1.36%)、计算机（-1.34%)、 医药生物（-1.23%)、电力设备（-1.18%)。 ❑ 资金：12 月 2 日全 A 总成交额为 16073 亿元，南下资金净流入 41.01 亿港元。 ❑ 【浙商通信 张建民/邢艺凡】银轮 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tencent Holdings is "Buy" [7] Core Insights - The company's gaming business is expected to grow robustly driven by a new product cycle, while the video account advertising business remains highly prosperous, likely becoming a major source of revenue growth [1][2] - In Q3 2025, Tencent's online gaming revenue (excluding social) reached 636 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23%. Domestic market revenue was 428 billion yuan, up 15%, exceeding Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 423 billion yuan, primarily due to the contribution from "Delta Operation" and continued revenue growth from existing games [1] - International market revenue was 208 billion yuan, a 43% year-on-year increase, surpassing Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 181 billion yuan, driven by record highs in daily active users and revenue for "Clash Royale" and growth from "PUBG: MOBILE" [1] - The introduction of a 15% commission agreement between Apple and Tencent regarding WeChat mini-game payments is expected to open up payment opportunities in the long term, despite short-term challenges in commission avoidance methods [3] - The company's marketing services revenue in Q3 2025 was 362 billion yuan, a 20.8% year-on-year increase, driven by improvements in eCPM and expansion of advertising inventory [4] Financial Forecasts - Projected revenues for Tencent from 2025 to 2027 are 748.76 billion yuan, 835.25 billion yuan, and 921.90 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 13%, 12%, and 10% respectively [5] - Adjusted net profits for the same period are forecasted to be 266.16 billion yuan, 293.21 billion yuan, and 321.51 billion yuan, with growth rates of 20%, 10%, and 10% respectively [5] - The valuation method applied suggests a target price of 794.73 HKD per share for 2026, indicating a potential upside of 30% [5]

2）我们认为：2025 年气体价格已展现出触底回升趋势，且宏观 PPI 指标已经历 多年下行、期待周期触底向上。如果未来宏观经济复苏，零售气业绩潜在弹性 大。即使不考虑经济复苏的基础下，未来公司依靠管道气（量投放）+设备业务 （新疆煤化工+海外需求）、业绩基本盘仍能稳步向上。同时公司加速布局可控核 聚变领域，与安徽聚变新能等头部客户紧密合作，第二成长曲线打开。 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 | 化学制品 杭氧股份(002430) 报告日期：2025 年 12 月 02 日 中国工业气体龙头："周期+成长"，核聚变打开空间 ——杭氧股份点评报告 核心逻辑 ❑ 一句话逻辑 中国工业气体龙头，"周期+成长"兼备的纯内需标的；气体行业处于周期底部， 未来业绩有望拐点向上。加速布局可控核聚变领域，打开第二成长曲线 ❑ 超预期逻辑 1）市场认为：宏观经济承压，公司业绩增长存在不确定性。 （1）管道气：公司的"防御"属性，受宏观经济波动小，稳定增长。管道气的 商业模型相对稳定、一旦项目在客户端投产、将带来公司稳定的收益和现金流， 受宏观经济波动较小。2024 年公司总制氧量累计签单量 350 万 Nm³/h，同比增长 8.6 ...

11 月经济前瞻：需求偏疲软，生产有韧性 ——2025 年 11 月宏观数据预测 核心观点 预计 11 月我国经济运行呈现生产稳中有韧性，金融与需求仍承压的格局：生产端， 预计 11 月工业生产回升，服务业景气放缓，工业稳增长政策发力于装备制造等新 动能领域，出口修复快于内需，规模以上工业增加值预计保持在中高速区间，但 假期效应消退后服务业商务活动略有回落，部分线下消费和地产相关服务景气走 弱；需求端，社零增速继续回落，主要受以旧换新边际减弱、"双十一"前置及汽 车补贴退坡等因素压制；投资方面 1-11 月固定资产投资累计为负、制造业小幅正 增长、基建低位徘徊、房地产投资大幅下行；出口方面，在开拓非美市场和中美经 贸磋商改善预期支撑下保持小幅正增长、进口温和回升。价格端，猪肉与油价整 体震荡偏弱，叠加需求偏弱，使得通胀维持低位，CPI 同比仅小幅正增长，PPI 仍 为负但跌幅收窄，整体通胀弹性不大。金融数据上，社融和信贷新增规模均处偏 弱水平，人民币贷款同比少增、M2 和 M1 增速略有回落，反映实体融资需求不 足。 证券研究报告 | 宏观专题研究 | 中国宏观 ❑ 消费：预计 11 月社零同比增速仍然承压 ...