1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short - term, when there is no significant market catalyst and incremental funds have not entered the market, a strategy of going long on volatility can increase the returns of the convertible bond portfolio. The excess returns mainly come from risk - pricing compensation and the avoidance of the "volatility trap" [2][11]. - In the long - term, liquidity premium may be a relatively stable source of excess returns in the convertible bond market. With the expected liquidity easing, low - interest rates, narrowing credit spreads, and the structural rise of the equity market, the convertible bond market is expected to be in a "high - valuation" state for a long time, and the equity factor is expected to dominate convertible bond returns [3][14]. - The convertible bond market has been oscillating upward, maintaining stable trading volume, range - bound movement, and compressed valuations. In the industry dimension, sectors such as information technology, optional consumption, and finance have strengthened, while the energy and materials sectors have weakened. In the medium - term, although the supply of convertible bonds continues to shrink, the expected incremental funds are sufficient, and the convertible bond market is expected to have a new round of upward trends [1][10]. 3. Summary of Each Section According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Convertible Bond Weekly Thoughts - From 2025/12/08 to 2025/12/12, the convertible bond market oscillated upward, maintaining stable trading volume, range - bound movement, and compressed valuations. Information technology (+0.72%), optional consumption (+0.48%), and finance (+0.18%) sectors strengthened, while energy (-1.93%) and materials (-0.59%) sectors weakened. Due to bond market adjustments, the valuation of debt - like convertible bonds contracted, while equity - like convertible bonds strengthened and their valuations expanded [10]. - In the short - term, as of 2025/12/12, the volatility style performed best in the past week. The average return of this style in the past week was about -0.17%, with a relatively controllable overall drawdown. Going long on volatility can bring excess returns from risk - pricing compensation and the avoidance of the "volatility trap" [11]. - In the medium - term, the release of relevant policies may bring incremental funds to the market. Since 2021, under neutral market conditions, the liquidity style has performed best with stable excess returns. Future liquidity easing and low - interest rates will support convertible bond valuations, and the convertible bond market is expected to move towards "strengthened equity attributes" [13][14]. 3.2 Convertible Bond Market Tracking 3.2.1 Convertible Bond Market Conditions - The report provides the performance data of various convertible bond indices in different time periods, such as the performance of the Wande Convertible Bond Energy Index, Wande Convertible Bond Materials Index, etc., in the past week, two weeks, since September, one month, two months, half - year, and one year [18]. 3.2.2 Convertible Bond Individual Securities - The report shows the top ten and bottom ten individual convertible bonds in terms of price changes in the past week [21]. 3.2.3 Convertible Bond Valuations - The report presents the valuation trends of debt - like, balanced, and equity - like convertible bonds, as well as the conversion premium rate valuation trends of convertible bonds with different parities [22][30]. 3.2.4 Convertible Bond Prices - The report shows the proportion trend of high - price bonds and the median price of convertible bonds [32].

Group 1: Company Insights - The report highlights Huafeng Technology (688629) as a key player in the connector industry, focusing on defense, communication, and industrial sectors, with significant advantages in high-speed backplane connectors [4] - The company has achieved mass production of 112G connectors and is leading in the 224G segment, with deep partnerships with Huawei and expansion into other major manufacturers and internet companies [4] - Revenue projections for Huafeng Technology are set at 2,364 million, 3,838 million, and 5,182 million CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, indicating growth rates of 116.52%, 62.33%, and 35.03% [4] Group 2: Industry Insights - The real estate industry is expected to continue bottoming out in 2026, with investment strategies focusing on "light assets" and "good companies," leaning towards defensive positions [5] - The report suggests a cautious outlook on policy expectations for 2026 compared to 2025, emphasizing high-margin, high-cash, and high-dividend stable targets [5] - The macroeconomic report indicates that China's high trade surplus is unsustainable in the long term, with policies aimed at promoting balanced trade [6]

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Positive" [1] Core Insights - The demand for satellite applications is expected to release, leading to a breakthrough in rocket supply [1] - The construction of low Earth orbit (LEO) satellite constellations is progressing slower than anticipated, resulting in a rapid increase in rocket launch demand [5][19] - The cost of rocket launch capacity is continuously decreasing, and the industry capacity is expanding [4][32] Summary by Sections 1. Low Earth Satellite Communication: Multi-Scenario Applications Leading Industry Growth - Satellite internet is a new type of network that provides broadband internet access globally through a certain number of satellites, enhancing military communication networks and expanding service coverage for ground users [5][10] - The construction of low Earth satellite constellations is facing "frequency occupation and orbit preservation" pressures, with significant demand in China [5][21] 2. Rocket Sector: Demand Explosion, Supply Breakthrough, Moving Towards High Frequency and Low-Cost Commercial Closure - The number of planned satellite launches in China is expected to reach approximately 16,000 over the next five years, leading to a rapid increase in rocket launch frequency from 54 times in 2025 to 860 times in 2030, with a CAGR of 74% [24][25] - By 2029, the demand for space computing in China is projected to correspond to 6,800 rocket launches, with a global total of 15,000 launches [27] - The national team is continuously expanding capacity, and private rocket companies are expected to see concentrated test launches by the end of this year [29][32] 3. Key Industry Chain Targets - The report highlights several key suppliers and potential main manufacturers in the rocket industry, including: - Hangyang Co., Ltd. as a liquid oxygen fuel supplier [38] - Plater Technology as a 3D printing parts supplier for rockets [38] - Aerospace Power as the only listed platform of the Sixth Academy of Aerospace Science and Technology [38]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - The market generally focuses on the changes in the description of monetary policy in the Central Economic Work Conference. The meeting minutes of the People's Bank of China Party Committee's study and implementation of the Central Economic Work Conference spirit are equally important, reflecting the central bank's specific thinking on monetary policy in 2026 [1]. Summary by Directory 1. From the Meeting Minutes of the Central Bank Party Committee's Study to See Subtle Changes in Monetary Policy in 2026 - The Central Economic Work Conference is an important institutional arrangement for the Party to govern the country. After the conference, various systems and ministries will convey, study, and deploy specific work for 2026. The People's Bank of China Party Committee will also study and clarify implementation measures [1][12]. - Comparing the 2025 and 2024 meeting minutes, four main changes were found: adding "grasp the intensity, rhythm, and timing of policy implementation", which may indicate a more moderate loose - monetary - policy; changing the description of social comprehensive financing costs from "stable and gradually decreasing" in 2024 to "operating at a low level" in 2025; making the description of the RMB exchange rate more concise, showing confidence in the recent appreciation trend of the RMB; and continuing to emphasize "coordination with fiscal policy" [2][12][13]. 2. Narrow - Sense Liquidity 2.1 Central Bank Operations - Short - term liquidity: In the past week (12/8 - 12/12), the central bank's net reverse - repurchase injection was 4.7 billion yuan. As of December 12, the central bank's reverse - repurchase balance was 668.5 billion yuan, at a relatively low level [15]. - Medium - term liquidity: In December, the due amount of the central bank's outright reverse - repurchase was 140 billion yuan (including 100 billion yuan for the 3 - month and 40 billion yuan for the 6 - month). On December 5, the central bank renewed the 3 - month outright reverse - repurchase of 100 billion yuan. On December 15, it will renew the 6 - month outright reverse - repurchase of 60 billion yuan, with a net injection of 20 billion yuan [16]. 2.2 Institutional Fund Inflow and Outflow: Large Banks' Net Outflow Reaches a New High - Fund supply: On December 12, large banks' net fund outflow was 4.2 trillion yuan (flow concept), up about 100.2 billion yuan from December 5. The net outflow balance was 4.8 trillion yuan, up about 130.2 billion yuan. The net outflow balance of money funds was 1.1 trillion yuan, down about 117.7 billion yuan from December 5. The net outflow of joint - stock banks was 28.96 billion yuan, up about 285.5 billion yuan from December 5 [18]. - Fund demand: On December 12, the balance of repurchase - to - be - bought bonds in the inter - bank market was about 12.4 trillion yuan, up 646.7 billion yuan from December 5. The leverage ratio of the whole market was 107%, up 0.40 pct from December 5, and the leverage ratio of non - legal person products was 112%, up 1.17 pct from December 5 [29]. 2.3 Repurchase Market Transaction Situation: Low Liquidity Friction - Fund volume and price: In the past week, the inter - bank pledged repurchase market had a large volume and stable prices. The median daily trading volume was about 8.1 trillion yuan, up 203.9 billion yuan from December 1 - 5. The median of R001 was 1.35%, down 1bp from last week. The median spread of R001 - DR001 was 7.0bp, up 0.6bp from last week, and the median spread of GC001 - R001 was 7.2bp, up 0.8bp from last week [32]. - Fund sentiment index: The overall fund situation was loose, and the financing difficulty was low. The sentiment index was mostly below 50 [36]. 2.4 Interest Rate Swaps: Basically Flat - The 1 - year FR007 IRS interest rate was basically the same as last week. This week, the median of the 1 - year FR007 IRS was 1.54%, at the 11% quantile since 2020 [38]. 3. Government Bonds: The Net Payment Pressure of Government Bonds Will Decrease in the Next Week 3.1 Next Week's Net Payment of Government Bonds - In the past week, the net payment of government bonds was 14.8 billion yuan, with a relatively small pressure. Among them, the net repayment of treasury bonds was 69.7 billion yuan, and the net payment of local bonds was 84.5 billion yuan. In the next week, the government bonds are expected to have a net repayment of 83.9 billion yuan, including a net repayment of 119.3 billion yuan for treasury bonds and a net payment of 35.3 billion yuan for local bonds. The net repayment is highly concentrated on Monday [39]. 3.2 Current Issuance Progress of Government Bonds - As of December 12, the net financing progress of treasury bonds was 96.7%, up 0.5% in the past week, with about 221 billion yuan of remaining net financing space in 2025. Local bonds have basically completed issuance [43]. 4. Inter - Bank Certificates of Deposit: Yields Fluctuated Slightly Higher 4.1 Absolute Yields - On December 12, the SHIBOR overnight, 7 - day, 1M, 3M, 6M, 9M, and 1Y quotes were 1.28%, 1.45%, 1.53%, 1.59%, 1.62%, 1.64%, and 1.65% respectively. The yields of 1M, 3M, 6M, 9M, and 1Y inter - bank certificates of deposit of AAA - rated commercial banks were 1.62%, 1.62%, 1.64%, 1.65%, and 1.66% respectively. Except for the 1M term, which increased by 4bp compared with December 5, the quotes of other terms remained unchanged [46]. 4.2 Issuance and Stock Situation - In the past week (December 8 - 12), the total issuance of inter - bank certificates of deposit was 941.78 billion yuan. In terms of issuance terms, the proportions of 1M, 3M, 6M, 9M, and 1Y were 9%, 27%, 43%, 6%, and 15% respectively. Among them, the proportion of 3M increased by 15 pcts, while those of 1M, 6M, 9M, and 1Y decreased by 4 pcts, 1 pct, 2 pcts, and 7 pcts respectively [51]. 4.3 Relative Valuation - On December 12, the spread between the 1 - year AAA - rated inter - bank certificate of deposit yield and R007 was 15bp, at the 34% quantile since 2020. The spread between the 10 - year treasury bond yield and the 1 - year AAA - rated inter - bank certificate of deposit was 18bp, at the 40% quantile since 2020 [54].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the steel industry is currently in a deep off-season, which may affect demand and pricing dynamics [1] - The overall performance of the steel sector is expected to outperform the broader market, as indicated by the positive investment rating [1] Price Performance - The SW Steel Index is at 2,541, with a weekly change of -2.9% and a year-to-date change of 20.9% [3] - The price of rebar (HRB400 20mm) is at 3,250 CNY/ton, showing a weekly decrease of 0.6% and a year-to-date decrease of 4.7% [3] - The iron ore price index is at 105 USD/ton, with no change from the previous week and a year-to-date increase of 5.0% [3] Inventory Levels - Total social inventory of the five major steel products is 9.41 million tons, with a weekly increase of 3.7% and a year-to-date increase of 24.1% [5] - Steel mill inventory stands at 4.05 million tons, reflecting a weekly increase of 4.5% and a year-to-date increase of 15.5% [5] - Port inventory of iron ore is at 15.428 million tons, with a weekly increase of 0.9% and a year-to-date increase of 3.8% [5] Supply and Demand - The weekly output of the five major steel products is projected to be 1.1 million tons [9] - The average daily molten iron production is estimated at 240,000 tons [9] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring supply and demand dynamics as the industry navigates through the off-season [11]

- The report discusses the **ETF Risk Appetite Index**, which has been declining since September 19, indicating a contraction in market risk appetite. This is evidenced by the outperformance of low-valuation stocks over high-valuation stocks and a gradual decline in trading volume. However, the **Active Capital Indicator** shows that speculative funds remain active, particularly in technology-related ETFs like cloud computing, military, and science innovation, while defensive ETFs like dividend and consumption are underperforming. This suggests a fragile market balance where risk appetite is declining, but active funds are narrowing their focus within the technology sector[1][11] - The report highlights the **High-Frequency Trading Regulation Impact**, which aims to level the playing field by increasing transaction delays and removing exclusive equipment. The regulation primarily targets microsecond-level ultra-high-frequency trading strategies, which are mostly proprietary or market-making strategies. These strategies have minimal impact on the overall market due to their small scale, typically under 100 million RMB per product. The report concludes that the regulation has limited influence on the profitability of quantitative strategies, as their excess returns are driven by asset pricing rather than trading speed. The report also notes that market volatility recovery could further enhance quantitative excess returns[2][12] - The report analyzes the **Micro-Cap Stock Trends**, noting that short-term fluctuations are influenced by hedging products, while medium-term trends are supported by incremental funds from quantitative products. Since December, the issuance of quantitative products has remained robust, though the proportion of "air index enhancement" (quantitative stock selection) has decreased by 12%, while "1000 index enhancement" and other index enhancements have increased. This shift has slightly reduced the allocation to micro-cap stocks. Additionally, as market risk appetite declines, funds are concentrating on high-growth sectors, strengthening mid-cap stocks like CSI 500 and CSI 1000. Despite short-term adjustments, the report remains optimistic about medium-term inflows into micro-cap stocks[3][13]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal sector has experienced a decline, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.72 percentage points, with a weekly drop of 3.8% [2] - Recent snowfall in northern coal-producing areas has increased heating demand and affected coal transportation, leading to a short-term decrease in supply and an increase in demand [6][31] - Despite an increase in social inventory, it remains lower than last year, and there is a need to ensure supply while managing production safely [31] Summary by Sections Supply Side - Key monitored enterprises reported an average daily coal sales volume of 7.51 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 7.6% but a year-on-year decrease of 4% [2] - The average daily coal production was 7.59 million tons, up 8.9% week-on-week but down 1.4% year-on-year [2] - Total coal inventory (including port storage) reached 25.2 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 2.1% and a year-on-year decrease of 16.9% [2][8] Demand Side - Power and chemical industries have seen cumulative coal consumption changes, with power consumption down 2.8% year-on-year and chemical consumption up 13.9% [2] - Iron and steel production has increased by 1.2% year-on-year [2] Price Side - The price of thermal coal (Q5500K) in the Bohai Rim was 703 CNY/ton, down 0.42% week-on-week [3] - The price of coking coal at major ports has seen a decline, with the main coking coal price at 1,650 CNY/ton remaining stable [4] - Chemical product prices have generally decreased, with methanol at 2,133.41 CNY/ton, down 5.91 CNY/ton week-on-week [5] Sentiment Side - The overall sentiment in the coal market remains cautious due to weak downstream demand, despite the resilience in coal prices due to increased heating needs from snowfall [6][31] - The report suggests prioritizing investments in high-dividend thermal coal companies and focusing on companies with improving profit margins in the coking sector [31]

证券研究报告 | A 股策略周报 | 中国策略 分化之下冲高回落，多看少动、耐心等待 ——A 股市场运行周报第 71 期 核心观点 本周市场明显分化、呈现"沪弱深强"格局，多数宽基指数冲高回落。展望后市，由于 以上证为代表的权重指数勉强站上 5 周均线，但还未收复前期上升趋势线；而在算力 链"强势吸金"的背后，市场出现明显分化格局。我们预计，在"权重不够强、行业大分 化"的局面下，市场或继续维持区间震荡格局。配置方面，基于"市场分化震荡继续， 多看少动守株待兔"的判断：择时方面，建议持仓等待，切勿追涨杀跌、垫高自身成 本，同时根据不同宽基指数的"左脚"分类设定目标，伺机出击、分批介入。行业配 置，建议关注明显滞涨且份额扩张的券商板块、走势顺畅且历史上在 12 月胜率较高的 家电，以及近期利好频出的机械设备。个股方面，留意医药、消费、AI 应用板块中相 对低位的标的，同时关注年线上方低位滞涨个股。 本周（2025-12-08 至 2025-12-12）行情概况 （1）主要指数：市场呈现"沪弱深强"格局，多数宽基指数冲高回落。（2）板块观 察：算力携硬科技领涨，大周期和消费走弱。（3）市场情绪：沪深成交环比上升， ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观专题研究 | 中国宏观 宏观专题研究 报告日期：2025 年 12 月 12 日 M1-M2 负剪刀差再度走阔，居民存款搬家仍在继续 ——11 月金融数据解读 核心观点 11 月末 M2 与 M1 增速相对承压。11 月末，M2 增速为 8%，前值 8.2%，下行了 0.2 个百分点。11 月末，M1 同比增速为 4.9%，前值 6.2%，回落了 1.3 个百分点。11 月 M1-M2 负剪刀差为-3.1%，前值-2%，较上月再度走阔 1.1 个百分点。 我们认为 11 月 M1-M2 负剪刀差进一步走阔，主要体现为 M1 对企业活期存款更为敏 感，在年末资金周转加快与存款定期化倾向提升的背景下，回落幅度显著大于 M2。 具体而言，企业端受回款偏慢、支出结算与偿债需求上升影响，活期资金难以沉淀， 部分资金由活期向定期存款迁移，压制 M1 增速；与此同时，财政开支加快带来政府 存款向居民、企业端的季节性转移，叠加国库定存净增对一般存款形成托底，使 M2 增速仅小幅下行。综合影响下，呈现 M1 显著下行、M2 相对韧性的组合特征，推动负 剪刀差继续扩大。 跟踪居民存款搬家，11 月超额储蓄的 ...

杭氧股份(002430) 报告日期：2025 年 12 月 12 日 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 | 化学制品 再次中标聚变新 BEST 低温系统部件，可控核聚变空间加速打开 ——杭氧股份点评报告 核心逻辑 ❑ 可控核聚变：中标聚变新能 BEST 低温分配阀箱项目，成长空间加速打开 1）再获订单：据公司 12 月 11 日微信公众号，公司成功中标聚变新能（安徽） 低温分配阀箱项目，项目包含 7 套低温分配阀箱，应用于 BEST 低温系统，是复 杂低温"血液循环系统"中"智能的心脏瓣膜和血管网络"，为各个低温用户精 准分配各温区的冷量。 2）回顾历史：公司已成功中标 BEST 低温系统低温分配阀箱+低温氮系统 2 个项 目，充分证明杭氧在深低温技术领域全面的技术实力和工程化能力。 3）展望未来：公司基于在气体设备的积累、切入可控核聚变低温系统领域（国 产替代空间较大），与安徽聚变新能等头部紧密合作，已连续中标订单，期待成 长空间加速打开。 ❑ 杭氧股份："周期+成长"兼备，核聚变/量子计算/商业航天等打开空间 中国工业气体龙头，"周期+成长"兼备的纯内需标的；气体行业处于周期底部， 未来业绩有望拐点向上。加速布 ...