证券研究报告 | 债券市场专题研究 | 债券研究 债券市场专题研究 报告日期：2026 年 02 月 25 日 交易性择时多空视角下的每日一图更新 ——利率量化择时系列四 核心观点 本文在前期"多平"的交易性择时框架的基础上，创新性地引入了 VPIN 微观流动性指 标与六大右侧技术指标的"空头镜像"逻辑，成功构建了兼顾胜率与盈亏比的国债期货 多空双向交易体系，并全新升级"每日一图"多维跟踪面板。在低利率时代与传统策略 面临"低波低收"内生矛盾的困局下，该框架旨在寻求收益与稳健配置的最优解。 ❑ 低息时代的困局与"多平"框架的防御底色 在全球经济步入深度的结构性调整周期与低利率时代背景下，面对趋势反复、震 荡偏强的复杂市况，前期构建的"多平（做多/空仓）"择时策略展现出了显著的抗 压性与防御底色。该策略摒弃了左侧博弈，严格遵循在趋势向上时做多、破位或 衰竭时迅速平仓的逻辑，通过过滤无序震荡区间，实现了胜率与收益结构的"非对 称优势"。 ❑ 空头指标体系的创新与立体化预警防线 通过 VPIN 微观预警与交易性择时的深度共振，模型的交易结构大幅优化，正式 从单一的"多平"框架升级为完备的"多空双向"复合框架。202 ...

再论美图：从"替代担忧"到"赋能红利" ——美图公司深度报告 投资要点 ❑ 核心逻辑 AI 技术全线赋能公司产品，国内 C 端产品付费渗透率提升+B 端及海外市场拓 展，三轮驱动有望带动公司业绩超预期。 ❑ 超预期逻辑 1、市场预期：AI Agent 正在重塑工作模式和工作流，市场针对传统工具软件是 否会被 AI 技术替代存在分歧，担心公司长期壁垒和业绩增长的可持续性。 2、我们认为：公司产品定位为创作平台而非简单的流程化软件，是 AI技术的受 益者。公司长期护城河在于对美颜修图场景的审美积淀（know-how）、庞大且 稳定的用户规模（流量入口）、以及独特的工作流范式（用户粘性）。以上壁垒 有望推动公司成为 AI+美颜修图领域的创新者，加速公司付费渗透率的提升以及 新市场的开拓，从而推动公司业绩持续增长。 1） 驱动因素一：付费用户数提升 考虑到付费用户数=MAU*付费订阅渗透率，公司付费用户数的提升主要来源 于：1）海外市场的开拓，带来 MAU 提升；2）AI 技术加持下用户体验大幅提 升，叠加 B 端生产力工具用户更高的付费意愿，带来付费订阅渗透率整体提升。 1）盈利预测：我们预计公司 2025-202 ...

证券研究报告 | 公司深度 | 纺织制造 超盈国际控股(02111) 报告日期：2026 年 02 月 23 日 弹性化纤面料龙头，东南亚产能拓展加码 ——超盈国际控股深度报告 投资要点 ❑ 弹性化纤产业链景气度高，运动服装面料空间广阔 公司作为弹性服饰面料制造商，处于高景气弹性服饰赛道产业链中游。从上游原 材料端来看，锦纶和氨纶产量稳步向上，价格逐渐走低，原料价格下降带来成本 端红利，有望进一步打开终端应用场景。从下游客户端来看，受益于弹性面料终 端消费需求旺盛，公司凭借全球化产能布局叠加较强的研发创新能力，切入运动 品牌客户并逐渐提升份额。 ❑ 成功切入运动品牌供应链，越南产能持续加码，全球化布局提升竞争力 注重创新研发，产品具备竞争力，上市以来研发费用率保持 2%-3%，拥有 300 余个专利发明，2011 年以来持续获得中国高新技术企业认证，2016 年成立超盈 技术研究院定期聘请专家对员工进行培训，2018 年切入顶尖户外品牌始祖鸟供 应链，规模处行业中等水平毛利率净利率均处行业第一梯队，彰显公司重视面料 专利创新，研发能力筑深厚护城河。 从客户角度来看，公司深度绑定维密、爱慕、黛安芬等内衣品牌，逐 ...

指增超额回撤控制：波动率分域视角 ——主动量化研究系列 核心观点 本报告中，我们继续就如何管理指增超额回撤进行研究。核心结论是：根据个股残差 波动率进行分域管理，放宽低波个股偏离约束，收紧高波偏离约束，对超配/低频限制 进行独立管理，可得到更优收益风险组合。 ❑ 风险来源于阿尔法，适当的风格敞口是必要的 阿尔法因子，无论基本面还是量价，多数与动量、波动率、流动性、市值存在较 强相关性。例如成长，其与动量、波动率、贝塔、流动性存在显著正相关关系； 超预期，与动量也存在较强的正相关性。 ❑ 个股权重偏离是更有效的抓手 收益维度，严约束风格敞口会较大程度上降低长期超额表现；风险维度，风险因 子解释度导致中性化敞口仍不足以有效平滑波动。个股权重偏离作为风险/收益 的本质来源，对其进行针对性管理，可操作性和效果更好。 ❑ 优化：残差波动率分域管理 超配/低配标的池内因子有效性反转，是回撤的直接原因。在无法预判风险的前 提下，降低发生时的影响更有价值。以残差波动率为划分指标，对高、中、低波 股票池个股权重偏离进行分域管理。从结果看，可在较小影响长期超额的前提 下，降低组合波动和回撤大小。 ❑ 风险提示 收益指标等指标均限 ...

Group 1: A-Share Strategy - The core viewpoint suggests a "mixed strong fluctuation" in the A-share market, recommending a cautious approach with a focus on observing rather than acting in the short term, while maintaining a "systematic slow bull" mindset for medium-term holdings [2][3] - During the holiday period, the A50 index rose by 1.39%, while the US Nasdaq and S&P 500 increased by 1.51% and 1.07% respectively, indicating mixed market factors [2] - The report anticipates that short-term opportunities may arise in AI applications and robotics sectors, which have overseas correlations and cultural relevance to the Spring Festival [2][3] Group 2: Macro Research - The macroeconomic analysis indicates a shift in the US stock market towards defensive strategies, with dividend and value stocks outperforming, while technology stocks face increased pressure [4] - Factors driving this shift include heightened geopolitical tensions, a decline in global risk appetite, and the Federal Reserve's tightening policies, which may lead to sustained high interest rates [4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic [1] Core Insights - The industrial gas market is expected to reach 1.3 trillion yuan by 2026, with a CAGR of 6.8% over the next four years [3] - The competitive landscape is becoming more concentrated, with the top four companies holding 54% of the global market share and the top six in China holding 72% [3] - Growth drivers include increased outsourcing of gas supply, accelerated demand from sectors like semiconductors and new energy, and short-term benefits from macroeconomic recovery and gas price elasticity [3] Market Space - The global industrial gas market is valued at over 1 trillion, while the domestic market is around 200 billion [3] - The market is projected to grow to 284.2 billion yuan in China by 2026, with a CAGR of 9.68% from 2022 to 2026 [21] - The market is characterized by high concentration, with the top five companies holding approximately 69% of the market share [21] Equipment Market - The domestic air separation equipment market is valued at 34.1 billion yuan in 2022, with a growth rate of 25% year-on-year [4] - The market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 22% from 2019 to 2024, driven by larger equipment sizes and increased export demand [4] Electronic Specialty Gases - The semiconductor market is expected to remain strong, with a projected 30% year-on-year increase in global semiconductor sales by November 2025 [5] - There is significant potential for domestic electronic specialty gas manufacturers to replace imports and expand into global markets [5] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the industrial gas sector, such as Hangyang Co., and key players in electronic specialty gases like China Shipbuilding Gas and Guanggang Gas [6]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [7] Core Insights - The gaming sector has shown resilience in the current macroeconomic environment, with strong performance from both listed and non-listed companies during the Spring Festival period, confirming the ongoing logic of a significant product year in 2026 [7] - Notable games such as "Goose Goose Duck" have dominated the App Store charts, while companies like Century Huatong and Perfect World have seen impressive pre-registration numbers and revenue growth for their upcoming titles [2][3][5] - The overall industry sentiment is improving, with non-listed companies also achieving remarkable results, as seen with "Blue Archive" and "Arknights" celebrating significant anniversaries and experiencing substantial revenue increases [4] Summary by Sections Company Performance - Tencent's games have shown comprehensive growth, with "Goose Goose Duck" topping charts and "Dark Zone Breakthrough" reaching over 230 million registered users [7] - Century Huatong's "Yihuan" has surpassed 25 million pre-registrations, outperforming titles like "Genshin Impact" in pre-launch interest [3] - Giant Network's "Supernatural Action Group" has achieved a daily active user (DAU) count exceeding 10 million, benefiting from the holiday season [3] Revenue Growth - Tencent's "Honor of Kings" saw a 105% month-on-month revenue increase to $220 million, while "Peacekeeper Elite" surpassed $110 million in revenue during January [7] - Non-listed games like "Blue Archive" and "Arknights" reported global revenue increases of 220% and 122%, respectively, in January [4] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on Perfect World due to the strong pre-registration numbers for "Yihuan" and suggests monitoring companies like Tencent, Huya, Century Huatong, Giant Network, and Kingsoft for their product lines [5]

- The report does not contain specific quantitative models or factors, nor does it provide detailed construction processes, formulas, or backtesting results for any quantitative models or factors. The content primarily focuses on market analysis, investment opportunities, and thematic discussions such as AI technology and price increase logic[2][3][10][11][12][13]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Insights - The development of large models emphasizes input efficiency and commercialization, with intense competition for consumer-facing entry points [1] - The new model "Qwen3.5-Plus" from Qianwen significantly enhances inference efficiency and integrates with Alibaba's ecosystem, potentially increasing traffic and order volume for downstream service providers [2] - During the Spring Festival, AI applications saw a surge in daily active users (DAU), with Qianwen reaching 73.52 million DAU, indicating a competitive landscape for consumer traffic [2] Summary by Sections - **AI Application C-end Positioning**: Qianwen's DAU increased significantly during the Spring Festival, leveraging red envelope activities to capture consumer traffic. Qianwen leads with 3 billion yuan in revenue, while competitors like Doubao and Tencent's Yuanbao also show strong user engagement [2] - **Industry Trends**: Since 2025, the large model industry has shifted towards emphasizing inference and multimodal capabilities, focusing on commercial viability and ROI. Recent developments include significant price adjustments and performance improvements from companies like Zhipu and MiniMax [2] - **Recommended Stocks**: The report suggests investing in Alibaba, with additional attention to companies like Cao Cao Travel, SF Express, Damai Entertainment, Focus Media, and Bilibili-W [2]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [5][41]. Core Insights - The medical services and pharmacy sectors have undergone significant adjustments since 2021, with valuations and performance returning to historically low levels. For instance, leading companies like Aier Eye Hospital, Tongce Medical, and Yifeng Pharmacy have seen their total market values decline by 73.5%, 81.9%, and 45.9% respectively since the Spring Festival of 2021 [1][16]. - The consumer medical industry is experiencing an improvement in competition and safety margins, aided by the implementation of relevant policies and a potential recovery in consumer willingness to spend [2]. - The offline pharmacy sector is benefiting from policy incentives and an improved competitive landscape, with significant support for prescription outflow and industry restructuring [3][32]. Summary by Sections 1. Valuation Bottoming and Low Holdings - The medical services and pharmacy sectors have faced prolonged adjustments, leading to valuations at historically low levels. The public fund holdings in these sectors have also decreased [10][11]. - The leading companies in the industry have seen substantial market value adjustments, indicating a low public fund holding ratio [16]. 2. Accumulating Reversal Momentum - The medical services and pharmacy sectors are expected to experience a dual recovery in performance and valuation, driven by improved competition and policy clarity [21]. - The medical services sector is witnessing a gradual recovery in income growth, particularly in the ophthalmology sector, which has seen a slowdown in revenue growth after a rapid recovery period [22]. - The pharmacy sector is experiencing a shift towards health service platforms, supported by policy changes that encourage pharmacies to expand their service offerings [33]. 3. Investment Views - Focus on leading companies in the medical services sector that have strong chain expansion capabilities and supply chain advantages, such as Aier Eye Hospital and Tongce Medical, which are expected to benefit from consumer upgrades and market demand [4][37]. - In the pharmacy sector, attention should be given to leading chains with strong supply chain advantages and management capabilities, such as Yifeng Pharmacy and Dazhenglin, which are well-positioned to capture market share and benefit from policy changes [4][37].