证券研究报告 供需趋紧，"铝"创新高 ——铝板块二季度策略 行业评级：看好 2025年3月13日 分析师 沈皓俊 研究助理 何玉静 邮箱 shenhaojun@stocke.com.cn 邮箱 heyujing@stocke.com.cn 证书编号 S1230523080011 摘要 1、价格：铝价中枢上移，上行趋势持续 3、供需：供给严限增量有限+需求成色佳 4、利润：产业链利润再分配，吨铝利润显著改善。 • 截止到2025年3月10日，单吨电解铝利润约为3300元/吨，吨铝利润显著走高。建议关注：云铝股份、神火股份、中国宏桥（宏创控股）、天山 铝业、中孚实业、中国铝业。 风险提示：国际政治形势变动风险、供给超预期放量风险、下游需求释放不及预期 2 伦铝价格：截止到2025年3月10日，LME现货结算价为2716美元/吨，同比上升507美元/吨，增幅19%。 由于今年春节时间相对靠前，铝价于2月底顺畅进入上行周期，同时2024Q4新能源汽车景气度突出，淡季不淡，需求表现突出。 低库存和海外高成本给予价格强支撑，美联储持续推进降息，国内经济刺激政策频繁出台，经济复苏预期强化，东南亚国家潜力 有望释放，金融和商 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the home appliance industry, particularly with the integration of AI technologies [2][3][6]. Core Insights - The home appliance sector is experiencing a transformation driven by AI, with black appliance brands actively embracing this trend [2][3]. - The low-altitude economy is expected to see significant growth in 2025, with orders being the main focus and mergers and acquisitions as a secondary aspect [6][7]. - Consumption policies are anticipated to gradually strengthen as a counter-cyclical measure, with potential for extraordinary measures such as nationwide consumption vouchers [5]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - On March 18, 2025, major indices showed slight increases, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.1% and the Hang Seng Index up by 2.5% [4]. - The best-performing sectors included home appliances (+1.9%) and non-ferrous metals (+1.4%), while the worst performers were food and beverage (-0.7%) and beauty care (-0.7%) [4]. Important Insights Macro Research - The report discusses the gradual implementation of consumption policies as a response to structural transformation, with a focus on consensus-building [5]. - If US-China trade tensions escalate, there may be a significant increase in counter-cyclical policy measures [5]. Electric Power Equipment - The report highlights 2025 as a pivotal year for the low-altitude economy, with expectations for policy guidance to facilitate local implementation [6][7]. - The low-altitude economy is seen as a new productive force that could aid macroeconomic recovery and enhance competitiveness in emerging industries [6][7]. Home Appliances - The integration of AI in home appliances is expected to create new investment opportunities, particularly for black appliance brands [3][6]. - The DeepSeek model is identified as a catalyst for a new wave of AI applications in the home appliance sector [3][6].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive (Maintained)" [5] Core Viewpoints - The new ship price index at the end of February 2025 was reported at 188.36 points, reflecting a year-on-year increase of approximately 3% [1] - The shipbuilding industry is experiencing high prosperity, with multiple ship types ramping up production, leading to improved profitability for shipyards and potential for continuous price increases due to supply-demand tightness [3] - The total order book for ships globally reached approximately 367 million deadweight tons by the end of February 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 26% [11] Summary by Sections Monthly Ship Price Data - The new ship price index increased by 2.84% year-on-year but decreased by 0.54% month-on-month, with a significant increase of 48.19% since 2021, currently at a historical peak of 98.36% [1] - Breakdown by ship type shows container ships at 118.31 points (up 5.26% YoY), oil tankers at 220.98 points (up 4.54% YoY), bulk carriers at 172.69 points (up 3.96% YoY), and LNG carriers at 204.17 points (up 2.05% YoY) [2] Order and Delivery Data - New orders in February 2025 saw a significant decline of 76.9% year-on-year, primarily due to the Spring Festival holiday, with total new orders around 3.7 million deadweight tons [6] - The global completion and delivery of ships in February 2025 was approximately 4.05 million deadweight tons, down 27.6% year-on-year [6] Industry Opportunities - The shipbuilding industry is expected to benefit from the government's focus on "deep-sea technology," with major players like China Shipbuilding Group positioned to gain from policy support [3] - The competitive landscape is improving due to ongoing asset consolidation in the shipbuilding sector, enhancing operational efficiency and scale [3] Key Recommendations - Key companies recommended for investment include China Shipbuilding, China Heavy Industry, China Power, China Marine Defense, and Yaxing Anchor Chain, with a focus on their strong market positions and growth potential [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company is expected to see steady growth in HNB (Heated Not Burned) products in 2025, with significant contributions anticipated in the second half of the year. The potential of the aerosol medical business is also highlighted as a key component of the company's 2030 goals [11] - Revenue for 2024 is projected at 117.99 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 5.3%, while net profit is expected to decline by 20.8% to 13.03 billion CNY [1][11] - The company is focusing on expanding its HNB and aerosol medical product lines, with R&D investments showing significant increases in these areas [3][11] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 117.99 billion CNY, with a net profit of 13.03 billion CNY, resulting in a net profit margin of 11.05% [1] - The company’s revenue for the fourth quarter of 2024 was 34.63 billion CNY, reflecting an 8% increase year-on-year, but a decline in profit by 42% due to high expenses [1] - The projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 128.92 billion CNY, 151.12 billion CNY, and 173.48 billion CNY, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 16.19 billion CNY, 21.21 billion CNY, and 26.59 billion CNY [11][12] Market Potential - The global market for electronic aerosol is expected to reach 91.42 billion USD by 2029, with a CAGR of approximately 7.4% from 2024 to 2029 [4] - The heated not burned market is projected to reach 66.86 billion USD by 2029, with a CAGR of about 10.1% during the same period [4] - The aerosol medical market is anticipated to grow significantly, with the global market for pulmonary drugs and delivery devices expected to reach 93.28 billion USD by 2030 [4]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Xiangcai Co., Ltd. (600095) [7] Core Views - Xiangcai Co., Ltd. is planning to acquire Dazhihui through a share swap, which is expected to enhance its business capabilities by integrating technology and customer flow advantages [3][4] - The historical context of the relationship between Xiangcai and Dazhihui includes previous attempts at mergers and acquisitions, indicating a long-standing interest in collaboration [2] - The merger is anticipated to facilitate the third integration of traditional brokerage firms with financial technology, potentially revitalizing Dazhihui's operations and user engagement [3] Financial Summary - The projected net profit growth rates for Xiangcai Co., Ltd. are 98% for 2024, 16% for 2025, and 5% for 2026, with corresponding book value per share (BPS) estimates of 4.24, 4.33, and 4.43 yuan [4][6] - The financial forecast indicates a significant drop in revenue for 2024, with a projected decrease of 8% compared to 2023, followed by a recovery with growth rates of 10% and 11% in 2025 and 2026 respectively [6][13] - The total market capitalization of Xiangcai Co., Ltd. is approximately 19.7 billion yuan, with a closing price of 6.89 yuan per share [8]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Xiangcai Co., Ltd. (600095) [7] Core Views - Xiangcai Co., Ltd. is planning to acquire Dazhihui through a share swap, which is expected to enhance its business capabilities by integrating technology and customer flow [3][4] - The merger is seen as a significant step towards the third integration of traditional brokerage firms with financial technology, following similar moves by other firms [3] - The anticipated growth in net profit for the company is projected at 98% in 2024, 16% in 2025, and 5% in 2026, indicating strong future performance [4] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Xiangcai Co., Ltd. is in the process of merging with Dazhihui, which has a historical context of previous attempts at collaboration and acquisition dating back to 2014 [2] Financial Performance - The financial forecast indicates a revenue decline of 34% in 2023, followed by a recovery with expected growth of 10% in 2025 and 11% in 2026 [6] - The projected net profit for 2024 is 237 million, increasing to 275 million in 2025 and 288 million in 2026 [6] Valuation Metrics - The report provides a forecast for Book Value Per Share (BPS) at 4.24 in 2024, 4.33 in 2025, and 4.43 in 2026, with a decreasing Price-to-Book (P/B) ratio from 1.66 in 2023 to 1.55 in 2026 [4][6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of $3.6 billion for 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 2.5%, but a slight decline of 0.2% when excluding foreign exchange impacts. Adjusted EBITDA was $680 million, down 3.7% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders was $350 million, down 12.9% year-on-year. In Q4 alone, revenue reached $940 million, a year-on-year decrease of 0.6%, with adjusted EBITDA of $190 million, up 7.7% year-on-year, and net profit of $110 million, up 22.7% year-on-year [1][5][12]. Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - In Q4, North America, Europe, and China saw positive revenue growth, while India and South Korea experienced declines, leading to a 7% year-on-year drop in Asian revenue. Specifically, revenue from China was $70 million (up 2%), India $50 million (down 28%), Japan $50 million (up 3%), and South Korea $30 million (down 17%). North America generated $350 million (up 4%), with the U.S. contributing $330 million (up 4%). Europe achieved $210 million (up 5%), with Belgium at $60 million (up 16%) and Germany at $30 million (down 7%) [2][3]. Brand and Channel Performance - In Q4, the brands TUMI and Samsonite saw revenue growth, with TUMI at $250 million (up 4%) and Samsonite at $480 million (up 3%). The DTC (Direct-to-Consumer) channel showed stable performance, with revenues of $280 million (up 0.1%) and $130 million (up 1.2%) for DTC self-operated and DTC e-commerce channels, respectively. The company plans to open 67 new stores, increasing the total to 1,119, demonstrating confidence in growth despite a weak retail environment [3][4]. Profitability and Margins - The gross margin for Q4 was 60.2%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to higher-end brand performance and discount control. The adjusted EBITDA margin reached 20.7%, a historical high, while the net profit margin was 12.2%, down 3.5 percentage points year-on-year due to a high base from previous impairment reversals [4][5]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve revenues of $3.7 billion, $3.8 billion, and $3.9 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 1.8%, 4.1%, and 3.5%. Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be $370 million, $410 million, and $460 million for the same years, with growth rates of 6.2%, 10.8%, and 12.8%. The price-to-earnings ratio is estimated to be 10, 9, and 8 times for the respective years [5][12][13].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to the market index [4][10]. Core Insights - The company is a leading supplier in the electronic and electrical field, with a diversified product portfolio that includes smart home appliance controls, industrial automation, and precision connection products [1]. - The company has made significant advancements in AI power supply development, positioning itself as a key player in the data center and AI server power supply market [8]. - The company has been included in NVIDIA's server supplier list, which is expected to enhance its business prospects in the AI power sector [8]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - Projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are estimated at 85.15 billion, 109.50 billion, and 137.40 billion CNY, respectively, with year-over-year growth rates of 26.07%, 28.60%, and 25.48% [2][8]. - Expected net profits for the same period are forecasted to be 6.35 billion, 8.21 billion, and 10.00 billion CNY, with corresponding year-over-year growth rates of 0.94%, 29.26%, and 21.82% [2][8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 1.16, 1.50, and 1.83 CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 58.3, 45.1, and 37.0 [2][8]. Business Performance - In Q1-Q3 of 2024, the company reported a revenue of 59.0 billion CNY, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 21.1%, with a net profit of 3.6 billion CNY, up 18.1% [8]. - The company has achieved a leading position in high-power, high-efficiency network power technology, which supports its future growth [8]. - The collaboration with NVIDIA is expected to drive demand for the company's innovative power solutions, particularly with the upcoming GB300 product launch [8].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to the market index [4]. Core Insights - The company is a leading supplier in the electronic and electrical field, with a diversified product portfolio that includes smart home appliance controls, industrial automation, and precision connection products [1]. - The company has made significant advancements in AI power supply development, positioning itself as a key player in the data center and AI server power supply market [8]. - The company has entered the NVIDIA server supplier list, enhancing its prospects in the AI power supply business [8]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - Projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are expected to be 85.15 billion, 109.50 billion, and 137.40 billion CNY, representing year-over-year growth rates of 26.07%, 28.60%, and 25.48% respectively [2]. - Expected net profits for the same period are forecasted at 6.35 billion, 8.21 billion, and 10.00 billion CNY, with year-over-year growth rates of 0.94%, 29.26%, and 21.82% [2]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 1.16, 1.50, and 1.83 CNY, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 58.3, 45.1, and 37.0 [2]. Business Performance - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported a revenue of 59.0 billion CNY, a year-over-year increase of 21.1%, and a net profit of 3.6 billion CNY, reflecting an 18.1% growth [8]. - The company has achieved a leading position in high-power, high-efficiency network power technology, which supports its future growth [8]. - The introduction of innovative power solutions compatible with NVIDIA's MGX platform is expected to enhance the company's performance [8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of $3.6 billion for 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 2.5%, but a slight decrease of 0.2% when excluding foreign exchange impacts. Adjusted EBITDA was $680 million, down 3.7% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders was $350 million, down 12.9% year-on-year. In Q4 alone, revenue reached $940 million, a year-on-year decrease of 0.6%, with adjusted EBITDA of $190 million, up 7.7% year-on-year, and net profit of $110 million, up 22.7% year-on-year [1][5] Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - In Q4, North America, Europe, and China saw positive revenue growth, while India and South Korea experienced declines, leading to a 7% year-on-year decrease in Asian revenue. Specifically, revenue from China was $70 million (up 2% year-on-year), India was $50 million (down 28% year-on-year), Japan was $50 million (up 3% year-on-year), and South Korea was $30 million (down 17% year-on-year) [2] Brand and Channel Performance - In Q4, revenue from the brands Samsonite, TUMI, and American Tourister was $480 million, $250 million, and $150 million, respectively, showing year-on-year growth of 3%, 4%, and a decline of 9%. The DTC (Direct-to-Consumer) channel showed stable performance with revenues of $280 million, $130 million, and $540 million from wholesale, DTC self-operated, and DTC e-commerce channels, respectively [3] Profitability and Margins - The gross margin for Q4 was 60.2%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the higher growth rate of the premium TUMI brand and effective discount control. The adjusted EBITDA margin reached 20.7%, a historical high, while the net profit margin was 12.2%, reflecting a year-on-year decline mainly due to a high base from previous impairment reversals [4] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve revenues of $3.7 billion, $3.8 billion, and $3.9 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 1.8%, 4.1%, and 3.5%. Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be $370 million, $410 million, and $460 million for the same years, with corresponding growth rates of 6.2%, 10.8%, and 12.8%. The price-to-earnings ratio is estimated to be 10, 9, and 8 times for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [5][12]