证券研究报告 | 浙商早知道 报告日期：2025 年 07 月 04 日 浙商早知道 2025 年 07 月 04 日 ： 张延兵 执业证书编号：S1230511010020 ： 021-80106048 ： zhangyanbing@stocke.com.cn 市场总览 ❑ 资金：周四沪深两市总成交额为 13098 亿元，南下资金净流出 30.5 亿港元。 重要推荐 ❑ 【浙商计算机 刘雯蜀/刘静一】美图公司（01357）公司深度：成长视角：受益 AI 时代新红利，再迎阶梯式跃迁 ——20250702 重要观点 http://www.stocke.com.cn 1/4 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 ❑ 大势：周四上证指数上涨 0.2%，沪深 300 上涨 0.6%，科创 50 上涨 0.2%，中证 1000 上涨 0.5%，创业板指上涨 1.9%，恒生指数下跌 0.6%。 ❑ 行业：周四表现最好的行业分别是电子（+1.7%)、电力设备（+1.4%)、医药生物（+1.4%)、通信（+1.3%)、建筑 材料（+0.9%)，表现最差的行业分别是煤炭（-1.2%)、交通运输（-0.3%)、钢铁（-0.1%)、石 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Insights - The launch of AI-Agentforce 2.0 aims to assist enterprises in transitioning from "AI trial" to "AI industrialization" through a standardized toolchain, addressing long development cycles and high operational costs [1][10] - The platform has successfully been applied in various industries, including retail, automotive, fintech, and B2B manufacturing, indicating a strong market demand for AI agents [2] - The report highlights the significant commercial progress of similar products from Salesforce and HubSpot, suggesting a robust demand for marketing SaaS solutions [4] Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for the company are estimated at 2.355 billion, 3.088 billion, and 3.848 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 51.13%, 31.08%, and 24.62% [5][11] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 56.11 million, 144.84 million, and 218.63 million yuan for the same years, indicating a turnaround from losses to profits [5][11] - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.22, 0.57, and 0.85 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5][11]

证券研究报告 | 浙商早知道 报告日期：2025 年 07 月 03 日 浙商早知道 2025 年 07 月 03 日 ：王禾 执业证书编号：S1230512110001 ：021-80105901 ：wanghe@stocke.com.cn 市场总览 重要点评 【浙商计算机 刘雯蜀/叶光亮】京北方（002987）公司点评：携手国富量子，共同拓展稳定币生态——20250702 http://www.stocke.com.cn 1/3 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 大势：7 月 2 日上证指数下跌 0.09%，沪深 300 上涨 0.02%，科创 50 下跌 1.22%，中证 1000 下跌 1.01%，创业板 指下跌 1.13%，恒生指数上涨 0.62%。 行业：7 月 2 日表现最好的行业分别是钢铁（+3.37%)、煤炭（+1.99%)、建筑材料（+1.42%)、农林牧渔（+0.84%)、 银行（+0.75%)，表现最差的行业分别是电子（-2.01%)、通信（-1.96%)、国防军工（-1.94%)、计算机（-1.64%)、 美容护理（-1.09%)。 资金：7 月 2 日全 A 总成交额为 14051 ...

证券研究报告 | 公司点评 | 服装家纺 产能稀缺订单充沛，加快产能拓展蓄力长期成长 ——九兴控股点评报告 投资要点 ❑ 卓越高端鞋履制造商，开发设计能力领先，东南亚产能具备稀缺性。公司作为 全球领先的高端优质鞋履开发制造商，凭借强大的开发设计能力，深度绑定 Nike、Balenciaga、Prada、UGG 等国际知名品牌，布局运动、奢侈、时尚、休 闲全品类品牌客户，24 年 ASP 达 28.4 美元，显著领先行业，多元化产能布局具 备稀缺性，24 年公司中国、越南、其他亚洲地区（菲律宾、印尼和孟加拉）出 货量占比分别为 27%、51%、22%。 ❑ 预计品牌下单积极，关税等外部扰动下订单仍饱满 4 月 2 日美国决定征收"对等关税"，对品牌下单意愿和美国终端需求均产生不 利影响，但受益于公司高端鞋履制造产能稀缺性，Q1-3 订单已锁定不受关税等 外部因素影响，5 月 12 日中美日内瓦经贸会谈上美国修改 4/2 对等关税安排中针 对中国商品的 34%税率，在未来 90 天内暂停 24%关税的征收，仅保留 10%加 征，中美贸易谈判取得突破进展，我们预计品牌方下单积极性有所改善，Q4 订 单可见度提升，预 ...

Core Insights - Since March, the central bank has actively responded to short-term situations, implementing precise measures to maintain a balanced and loose liquidity environment. Although the probability of further rate cuts or reserve requirement ratio reductions in the short term is low, the central bank is expected to utilize appropriate tools if necessary to ensure stable liquidity. The bond market is likely to return to an upward trend, and investors are encouraged to seize the buying opportunity in July and August [1][5][24]. July Monetary Policy and Liquidity Outlook - July is a significant month for tax payments, which will increase liquidity disturbances [15]. - Approximately 2.8 trillion yuan of certificates of deposit will mature in July, primarily consisting of one-year and three-month maturities. In the context of a slowing deposit absorption pace, banks are likely to have strong motivation to replenish the certificate of deposit gap [17]. - The issuance scale of government bonds in July is slightly lower than in June, with net financing around 1.4 trillion yuan. Additionally, nearly 200 billion yuan of special refinancing bonds have yet to be issued [20]. - There will be 1.2 trillion yuan of reverse repos and 300 billion yuan of Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) maturing in July, with the scale being higher than in June. Investors are closely watching whether the central bank will initiate bond buying and change the announcement method [22]. Central Bank Operations - The central bank has been actively addressing different monthly demands since March, maintaining a balanced and loose liquidity stance. The policy toolbox has become "multi-term and flexible," allowing for timely decisions based on market needs [11][22]. - The market is currently focused on whether the central bank will restart bond buying. This ongoing speculation has influenced market trends, with investors closely monitoring indicators that reflect market liquidity and central bank intentions [24].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [4][11]. Core Insights - The company is positioned to benefit from the new opportunities presented by the AI era, aiming for a significant leap in growth through various strategic initiatives [2][3]. - The first phase of growth was driven by the mobile internet boom, where the company established a strong traffic barrier through popular mobile applications, leading to substantial revenue from online advertising [1][23]. - The second phase of growth is characterized by the integration of AI capabilities, enhancing user experience and enabling the company to close the commercial loop in B2B scenarios, resulting in a significant increase in software subscription revenue [2][66]. - The company's global strategy is crucial for tapping into new revenue streams, particularly from overseas markets where user payment capabilities are higher, potentially leading to a revenue breakthrough exceeding 10 billion [3]. Summary by Sections Growth Perspective - The mobile internet boom was the core driver of the company's initial structural growth, with software business revenue nearing 1 billion in 2018 [1][23]. - The AI era is expected to drive the second wave of structural growth, with software subscription revenue surpassing 2 billion in 2022 [2][66]. - The company's global strategy is pivotal, focusing on overseas market expansion to achieve a revenue target exceeding 10 billion [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 41.13 billion, 51.25 billion, and 64.04 billion respectively, with net profits of 8.43 billion, 11.68 billion, and 15.79 billion [4][10]. - The company is valued at a target market capitalization of 55.1 billion HKD, with a target price of 11.1 HKD based on a 60x PE ratio for 2025 [4][10]. Key Business Transformation - The company has shifted its focus to a subscription model, enhancing profitability through AI-driven productivity tools, leading to a significant increase in both revenue and profit margins [57][62]. - The integration of AI capabilities has allowed the company to enhance its product offerings, particularly in the B2B sector, which is expected to drive future growth [66].

证券研究报告 | 行业专题 | 交通运输 ——交运行业 25Q2 业绩前瞻 投资要点 ❑ 航空机场：二季度需求改善，油价下跌，航空机场业绩同比改善 航空：二季度客座率维持高位，票价跌幅环比收窄，油价同比大幅下跌，预计航 司 Q2 盈利同比改善。1）25 年 4-5 月累计 ASK：国航、南航、东航、春秋、吉 祥 ASK 同比 24 年同期分别+5%、+7%、+9%、+12%、+2%。2）25 年 4-5 月累 计客座率：国航、南航、东航、春秋、吉祥累计客座率分别为 81%、86%、 85%、90%、86%，同比 24 年同期分别+3、+3、+4、-1、+3pct。3）油价：25Q2 航空煤油平均价格为 5475 元/吨，环比-9%，同比-17%。4）汇率：6 月 27 日美 元兑人民币中间价 7.1627，人民币较 25Q1 末升值约 0.22%。 机场：随着国际航线旅客吞吐量恢复，机场商业持续好转，机场业绩持续修复。 25 年 4-5 月上海机场、白云机场旅客量分别为 2237、1353 万人次，恢复至 19 年 同期的 109%、115%，其中国内旅客量恢复至 19 年同期的 116%、124%，国际 及 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Insights - The company has signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Guofu Quantum Innovation Co., Ltd. to expand the stablecoin ecosystem, focusing on virtual assets and digital currency business [1][2] - The partnership aims to leverage both companies' resources in capital markets and fintech to drive innovation in financial scenarios and technology [1][2] - The company is officially launching its overseas strategy, using Hong Kong as a springboard to enter the global fintech and digital transformation market [3] Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 5.147 billion, 5.685 billion, and 6.291 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 11.01%, 10.46%, and 10.67% [4][6] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 363 million, 416 million, and 472 million yuan for the same years, reflecting growth rates of 16.34%, 14.63%, and 13.54% [4][6] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 0.42, 0.48, and 0.54 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [4][6]

证券研究报告 | 浙商早知道 报告日期：2025 年 07 月 02 日 浙商早知道 2025 年 07 月 02 日 ： 张延兵 执业证书编号：S1230511010020 ： 021-80106048 ： zhangyanbing@stocke.com.cn 市场总览 重要推荐 重要观点 ❑ 【浙商金属新材料 沈皓俊】贵金属 半年行业策略报告：重视降息交易，继续看好黄金——20250630 重要点评 ❑ 【浙商机械 邱世梁/王华君/何家恺/姬新悦】奥比中光（688322）公司点评：1-5 月扭亏，"技术创新投入－商业 成果转化"战略加速落地催化——20250630 http://www.stocke.com.cn 1/4 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 ❑ 大势：周二上证指数上涨 0.4%，沪深 300 上涨 0.2%，科创 50 下跌 0.9%，中证 1000 上涨 0.3%，创业板指下跌 0.2%，恒生指数下跌 0.9%。 ❑ 行业：周二表现最好的行业分别是综合（+2.6%)、医药生物（+1.8%)、银行（+1.5%)、有色金属（+1.5%)、公用 事业（+1.1%)，表现最差的行业分别是计算机（- ...

证券研究报告 | 浙商早知道 报告日期：2025 年 07 月 01 日 【浙商化工 李辉/汤永俊】会通股份（688219）公司深度：改性材料龙头持续扩张，特种材料构筑成长新曲线 — —20250629 重要点评 【浙商机械 邱世梁/王华君/何家恺/陈明雨/黄华栋】机械设备 行业深度：无人车：谁先放量？——20250629 浙商早知道 2025 年 07 月 01 日 ：王禾 执业证书编号：S1230512110001 ：021-80105901 ：wanghe@stocke.com.cn 市场总览 重要推荐 http://www.stocke.com.cn 1/4 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 大势：6 月 30 日上证指数上涨 0.59%，沪深 300 上涨 0.37%，科创 50 上涨 1.54%，中证 1000 上涨 1.26%，创业 板指上涨 1.35%，恒生指数下跌 0.87%。 行业：6 月 30 日表现最好的行业分别是国防军工（+4.35%)、传媒（+2.82%)、通信（+1.9%)、电子（+1.44%)、 纺织服饰（+1.41%)，表现最差的行业分别是非银金融（-0.77%)、银行（-0 ...