Market Overview - On October 13, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.19%, the CSI 300 decreased by 0.5%, the STAR 50 rose by 1.4%, the CSI 1000 dropped by 0.19%, the ChiNext Index declined by 1.11%, and the Hang Seng Index decreased by 1.52% [3][4] - The best-performing sectors on October 13 were non-ferrous metals (+3.35%), environmental protection (+1.65%), steel (+1.49%), national defense and military industry (+0.86%), and banking (+0.74%). The worst-performing sectors were automotive (-2.33%), home appliances (-1.74%), beauty and personal care (-1.58%), media (-1.54%), and pharmaceutical biology (-1.47%) [3][4] - The total trading volume of the A-share market on October 13 was 23,742 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 19.804 billion Hong Kong dollars from southbound funds [3][4] Key Insights - The textile and apparel sector is expected to see a manufacturing recovery, with ongoing brand differentiation [5] - Market sentiment indicates that brand sales are sluggish, and most leading manufacturers faced pressure in Q3, with no significant improvement on a month-over-month basis [5] - The priority for investment is shifting towards leading manufacturers over brands [5] - Key drivers include clearer tariff arrangements and reduced inventory pressure for some leading brands like Nike; retail performance continues to vary based on track, positioning, product, and channel strategies [5] - Despite market concerns regarding Q3 performance pressures for some leading brands, there is optimism for overall recovery in the export chain, suggesting early positioning is advisable [5]

Group 1: Local Life and E-commerce - The competition in local life services is expected to continue in Q4 2025, with major platforms like Meituan, JD, and Alibaba intensifying their investments in delivery services and instant retail [2][3] - In Q2 2025, Meituan, JD, and Alibaba reported significant losses in local life services, but these losses are anticipated to peak in Q3 due to increased summer demand and promotional activities [2][3] - The e-commerce sector is experiencing reduced competitive pressure, with online retail sales reaching 1.02 trillion yuan in August 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.1% [4] Group 2: Tourism and Hospitality - The tourism sector is witnessing a recovery, with a 7% year-on-year increase in cross-regional travel during the National Day holiday, indicating a shift in traveler preferences towards experiential travel [7][8] - Online Travel Agencies (OTAs) are benefiting from the overall growth in tourism, with major players maintaining stable performance despite increased competition from new entrants [7] - The hotel industry is expected to reach a bottoming out phase, with leading companies like Jinjiang and Huazhu showing resilience and potential for profit recovery in Q4 2025 [10][11] Group 3: Retail and Consumer Goods - The offline retail sector is undergoing significant transformations, with supermarkets like Yonghui Supermarket expected to complete major store renovations, leading to improved profitability [9] - The retail landscape is shifting towards quality retail, with community stores like convenience stores maintaining high growth rates, while traditional department stores face slower growth [9] - The mother and baby retail sector is benefiting from supportive government policies and adjustments in store formats, leading to a notable recovery in same-store sales [14] Group 4: Cross-border E-commerce - Cross-border e-commerce is experiencing profit differentiation due to external factors like tariffs, with platform-based companies showing stable performance while product-based companies seek innovative advantages [12][13] - The sales peak for cross-border e-commerce is anticipated in the second half of 2025, driven by promotional events like Amazon's Prime Day, which saw a 30.3% increase in online spending [12][13] Group 5: Recommendations - Key investment targets include Yonghui Supermarket, Alibaba, Meituan, and various hotel chains such as Jinjiang and Huazhu, reflecting a diversified approach across sectors [5]

浙商早知道 证券研究报告 | 浙商早知道 报告日期：2025 年 10 月 13 日 2025 年 10 月 13 日 ：王禾 执业证书编号：S1230512110001 ：021-80105901 ：wanghe@stocke.com.cn 重要观点 重要点评 http://www.stocke.com.cn 1/5 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 ❑ 【浙商宏观 李超/林成炜】宏观专题研究：人民币和美元双牛持续演绎——9 月外汇储备数据传递的信号—— 20251009 ❑ 【浙商策略 廖静池/王大霁/李沛】A 股策略周报：上证突破但遇波折，战略看慢牛、战术盯金融——20251011 ❑ 【浙商 ESG 祁星】专题研究：中国 NDC 目标彰显气候治理雄心，AI 赋能绿色金融创新与能源转型—— 20251011 ❑ 【浙商机械 邱世梁/王华君/何家恺】涛涛车业（301345）公司点评：单三季度业绩中枢同比预增 116%, 北美休 闲车龙头有望强者恒强——20251010 ❑ 【浙商传媒互联网 冯翠婷/陈磊/徐紫薇】传媒 行业专题： 游戏的高增才刚刚开始——20251010 贸易摩擦超预期；全球衰退超预期。 ...

Group 1: Export Chain - The export chain is expected to see improved sentiment and performance, with clarity on tariff arrangements boosting order placement by brands [1][9] - Major brands like Nike and Adidas are cautiously optimistic about demand recovery, with Nike reporting a slight revenue and gross margin beat in its recent quarterly results [2][12] - Leading manufacturers have begun to see performance improvements in Q3, with companies like Xin'ao and Bailong Dongfang anticipating revenue growth driven by increased orders [3][19] Group 2: Investment Themes - Key investment themes include leading sports and leisure brands such as Nike, Adidas, and Uniqlo, along with their core suppliers like Shenzhou International and Huayi Group, which have attractive PE ratios for 2025 [4][21] - Upstream manufacturers showing short-term order improvements and medium-term market share gains include Xin'ao and Weixing, which are expected to benefit from rising raw material prices [4][21] Group 3: Brand Apparel - The brand apparel sector continues to show signs of divergence, with retail performance impacted by fluctuating offline traffic and intense online competition [5][22] - Despite challenges, companies like Hailan Home and Luolai Life are expected to maintain positive revenue growth due to strong online and offline sales strategies [6][26] Group 4: Market Outlook - The overall market outlook for the textile and apparel industry remains cautiously optimistic, with expectations of gradual recovery in demand and performance improvements across various segments [1][9][22] - The consumer confidence index shows slight recovery, but consumers remain focused on product functionality and value for money [5][22]

证券研究报告 | 债券市场专题研究 | 债券研究 债券市场专题研究 报告日期：2025 年 10 月 12 日 新一轮宏观事件主导期 ——可转债周度追踪 执业证书号：S1230525050001 chentingting01@stocke.com.cn ❑ 风险提示 经济基本面改善不足；国内流动性收紧；海外风险事件超预期；历史经验不代表 未来 核心观点 短期权益市场受中美关系相关事件的扰动预计出现调整，中长期股强债弱的大趋势或 不会就此逆转。本次市场调整的幅度、节奏和时间长度决定了转债后续的走势，但转 债大概率呈现保持抗跌性，结构性机会优于整体性行情。 短期权益市场受中美关系相关事件的扰动预计出现调整。回望四月初，权益调整 程度很深，调整仅有一天，次日开始上证指数开始 V 性修复。而中证转债走势和 权益一样，展现明显的抗跌性。10 月 12 日，市场调整相对克制，市场学习效应 下，关税对市场的单日扰动相对较少。此外，我们认为股债市场底层逻辑或已发 生显著变化，股强债弱的阶段性行情大趋势或不会就此逆转。本次市场调整的幅 度、节奏和时间长度决定了转债后续的走势，但转债大概率呈现抗跌性。 ❑ 转债结构性机会优于整体 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [6] Core Insights - The wafer foundry industry is the final point for chips from design to application, benefiting from the surge in domestic computing infrastructure and the demand for advanced foundry services, highlighting the importance of self-sufficiency in the industry [1] - AI computing power and the "China for China" strategy are driving the expansion and demand in the wafer foundry market, particularly for advanced processes below 14nm, which remain a bottleneck for domestic foundries [2] - Domestic equipment breakthroughs and the weakening impact of overseas restrictions are expected to accelerate the expansion of local wafer foundries, with a focus on achieving full localization across the entire supply chain [3] - The wafer foundry sector is critical for semiconductor localization, with urgent needs for domestic replacements due to U.S. semiconductor policies that have significantly impacted domestic advanced process expansion [4] - Companies to watch include SMIC, Hua Hong Semiconductor, Jingxin Integrated Circuit, Yandong Microelectronics, and Xilinx Integrated [5] Summary by Sections - **Investment Rating**: The industry is rated as "Positive" [6] - **Market Drivers**: The growth in AI computing and local strategies are key drivers for demand in advanced wafer foundry services [2] - **Domestic Equipment and Localization**: Progress in domestic semiconductor equipment and reduced impact from overseas restrictions are facilitating faster expansion of local foundries [3] - **Policy Impact**: U.S. semiconductor policies have created a pressing need for domestic alternatives in the wafer foundry sector [4] - **Companies of Interest**: Notable companies in the sector include SMIC and others [5]

Core Insights - The report analyzes the current leverage levels in the A-share market by examining the margin financing and securities lending (two-way financing) ratios across major indices, styles, and industries as of October 9, 2025 [1][10]. Group 1: Broad Indices - The top three broad indices with the highest two-way financing ratios are: CSI 1000 (6.47%), CSI 500 (5.66%), and Shenzhen Component Index (4.94%) [2][11]. - The overall two-way financing ratio for all A-shares is 4.62%, which has increased by 0.41 percentage points since June 30, 2025 [2][11]. Group 2: Style Indices - Among the five major style indices, the growth style (5.14%) and financial style (4.72%) have the highest two-way financing ratios [3][13]. - The financial style saw the largest increase in two-way financing ratio, rising by 0.96 percentage points since June 30, 2025 [3][13]. Group 3: Industry Analysis - The top five industries with the highest two-way financing ratios are: Comprehensive Finance (7.94%), Non-Bank Finance (6.51%), Comprehensive (6.30%), Computer (6.05%), and Real Estate (6.01%) [4][15]. - The two-way financing ratio for the emerging financial services sector II is the highest at 8.20%, followed by Multi-Domain Holdings II (7.85%) and Passenger Vehicles II (7.69%) [4][16]. Group 4: Individual Stocks - There are 350 stocks in the A-share market with a two-way financing ratio exceeding 10%, accounting for approximately 6.4% of all A-shares [20][21]. - Among these, 76 stocks have seen their two-way financing ratios increase by more than 5 percentage points since June 30, 2025 [20][21].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - The report highlights structural growth opportunities in new products and channels within the consumer goods sector, particularly in the context of the 25Q3 performance forecast [2] - The performance of various sub-sectors is expected to vary, with specific companies showing significant growth potential due to category advantages and new channel expansions [10][12][14][15][16][19][21][22] Sub-sector Summaries 1.1 Snack Foods - The performance in 25Q3 is expected to be differentiated, with companies like Wanchen Group projected to achieve a revenue growth of 39% and a net profit growth of 382% [2][25] - Emphasis is placed on companies that can leverage category trends and new channel opportunities for sustained growth [10][11] 1.2 Soft Drinks - The energy drink segment is showing improved market conditions, with companies like Dongpeng Beverage expected to see a revenue growth of 31% and a net profit growth of 33% [2][25] - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong brand power and channel capabilities for long-term growth [12][13] 1.3 Dairy Products - The dairy sector is anticipated to experience flat demand in 25Q3, with companies like Yili expected to see only a 2% revenue growth [2][25] - The report indicates that profitability may improve once raw milk prices stabilize [14] 1.4 Tea Drinks - The market is characterized by a leading player, Mixue Group, which is expected to expand its competitive edge through enhanced product offerings [2][15] - The mid-price segment is highlighted as a key growth area, with recommendations for companies like Guming [15] 1.5 Health Supplements - The report notes a trend towards increased concentration in the B-end market, with companies like Xianle Health projected to achieve a revenue growth of 15% [2][25] - The C-end market is advised to focus on high-growth single products [16][17] 1.6 Ready-to-Drink Alcohol - The performance in 25Q3 is expected to be strong, with companies like Bairun expected to see an 8% revenue growth [2][25] - New product launches are anticipated to drive sales growth [18] 1.7 Beer - The impact of the "drinking ban" is expected to be limited, with Qingdao Beer projected to achieve a 2% revenue growth and an 8% net profit growth [2][25] - The report suggests that the beer sector will see stable growth driven by structural upgrades and cost improvements [19][20] 1.8 Condiments - Leading companies like Haitian Flavoring are expected to maintain stable performance, with a revenue growth of 7% [2][25] - The report emphasizes the importance of robust market strategies during periods of flat demand [21] 1.9 Frozen Foods - The sector is facing weak demand, with companies like Anjixin expected to see a 6% revenue growth [2][25] - The report advises monitoring the recovery of the restaurant supply chain for potential investment opportunities [22][23] 1.10 Marinated Products - The focus is on improving store operations as the sector continues to recover from previous challenges [24] Key Company Tracking - The report provides a detailed forecast for various companies across different segments, highlighting expected revenue and net profit growth rates for 25Q3 [25]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In early October, the bill rate dropped rapidly. The transfer and discount yield of 3M state-owned and joint-stock bank drafts across the year was only 0.47%. The expectation of real - economy credit supply within the year still needs to be boosted, and narrow - sense liquidity has an endogenous basis for loosening [1][2][10]. - Although narrow - sense liquidity has an endogenous basis for loosening, the central bank still emphasizes "preventing capital idling" in the third - quarter monetary policy meeting. The situation of a "lower limit" for repo rates still holds, and the yield range of 1 - year state - owned and joint - stock bank inter - bank certificates of deposit may be between 1.6% - 1.65% [3][11]. Summary by Directory 1. 10 - early - October Bill Rate Rapid Decline - The "five - factor method" shows that central bank investment, commercial bank credit supply, and fiscal factors may all be favorable to the capital market in the fourth quarter, indicating an endogenous basis for loosening of narrow - sense liquidity. The rapid decline in the transfer and discount yield of 3M state - owned and joint - stock bank drafts across the year in early October implies poor expectations for real - economy credit supply in the fourth quarter by commercial banks, which is favorable to narrow - sense liquidity. On October 9, the transfer and discount yields of overnight, 7 - day, 1M, 3M, and 6M state - owned and joint - stock bank drafts were 1.28%, 1.28%, 1.19%, 0.47%, and 0.77% respectively [2][10]. 2. Narrow - sense Liquidity 2.1 Central Bank Operations: Continuous Net Investment in Outright Repos - Short - term liquidity: In the past week (October 9 - 10), the central bank's pledged repos had a net withdrawal of 16423 billion yuan. As of October 10, the central bank's repo balance was 10210 billion yuan, significantly lower than on September 30 but still slightly higher than the seasonal level in previous years. The commercial bank system's excess reserves still depend on central bank investment [12]. - Medium - term liquidity: In October, the total maturity amount of outright repos was 13000 billion yuan, and the MLF maturity was 7000 billion yuan. On October 9, the central bank renewed 11000 billion yuan of 3M outright repos, with an excess renewal of 3000 billion yuan [13]. 2.2 Institution's Fund Lending and Borrowing Situation: Strong Supply and Demand - Fund supply: On October 10, large - scale banks' net fund lending (flow concept) was 38608 billion yuan, an increase of 14269 billion yuan compared to September 30. The net lending balance of large - scale banks was 45983 billion yuan, an increase of 3652 billion yuan compared to September 30. The net lending balance of money market funds was 18758 billion yuan, a decrease of 437 billion yuan compared to September 30. In early October, joint - stock commercial banks had large - scale net borrowing, and the net borrowing amount was at a relatively high level in the same period of previous years [16]. - Fund demand: On October 10, the balance of inter - bank pledged repurchase of bonds in the whole market was about 11.7 trillion yuan, an increase of 3358 billion yuan compared to September 30. The whole - market leverage ratio was 107%, an increase of 0.15 percentage points compared to September 30. The leverage ratio of non - legal person products was 112%, a decrease of 0.44 percentage points compared to September 30 [26]. 2.3 Repo Market Transaction Situation: Volume Increase and Price Decrease at the Beginning of the Month - Fund volume and price: In the past week, the volume of the inter - bank pledged repo market increased while the price decreased, in line with the seasonal pattern at the beginning of the month. The median daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repos was 7.5 trillion yuan, an increase of 24969 billion yuan compared to September 29 - 30. The median R001 was 1.37%, a decrease of 9bp compared to September 29 - 30. The median spread between R001 and DR001 was 4.4bp, a decrease of 6.3bp; the median spread between GC001 and R001 was 13.2bp, an increase of 2.3bp, indicating small liquidity friction [28][30]. - Fund sentiment index: At the beginning of the month, the fund market was seasonally loose, and the fund sentiment index was around 50, generally loosening in the afternoon [32]. 2.4 Interest Rate Swaps: Slight Increase The 1 - year FR007 IRS interest rate decreased compared to last week. The median 1 - year FR007 IRS this week was 1.56%, a decrease of 2bp compared to last week, and the interest rate was at the 12% quantile since 2020 [33]. 3. Government Bonds: Low Net Payment Pressure for Government Bonds in the Coming Week 3.1 Next Week's Net Payment of Government Bonds - Affected by the holiday, the net payment of government bonds was small in the past week. In the coming week, the expected net payment of government bonds is 852 billion yuan, with a relatively low overall net payment pressure. Among them, the net payment of treasury bonds is 1261 billion yuan, and local bonds have a net repayment of 409 billion yuan. The net payment pressure is relatively large on Monday, and small on other weekdays [37]. 3.2 Current Issuance Progress of Government Bonds - As of October 11, the net financing progress of treasury bonds was 83.8%, an increase of 2.8% in the past week, with about 1.08 trillion yuan of remaining net financing space in 2025. The issuance progress of new local bonds was 83.6%, with 0.85 trillion yuan of remaining issuance space in 2025. The issuance progress of refinancing special bonds was 99.8%. Recently, the net supply scale of treasury bonds and special refinancing bonds has slowed down, but the issuance rhythm of new local bonds may still be relatively fast in October [38]. 4. Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit: Significant Decline in Net Financing Scale, and the Pressure on Banks' Long - term Liabilities May Be Controllable 4.1 Absolute Yield - On October 10, the SHIBOR quotes for overnight, 7 - day, 1M, 3M, 6M, 9M, and 1Y were 1.32%, 1.45%, 1.56%, 1.58%, 1.64%, 1.67%, and 1.68% respectively. Among them, overnight, 7 - day, and 1M increased by - 6bp, 5bp, and - 1bp respectively compared to September 30, and other terms remained unchanged. The yields to maturity of 1M, 3M, 6M, 9M, and 1Y inter - bank certificates of deposit of AAA - rated commercial banks on October 10 were 1.84%, 2.07%, 2.19%, 2.27%, and 2.33% respectively. Among them, 1M and 3M decreased by 1bp and 6bp respectively compared to September 30, and other terms remained unchanged [42]. 4.2 Issuance and Stock Situation - In the past week (October 9 - 10), the total primary issuance volume of inter - bank certificates of deposit was 16.52 billion yuan. In terms of issuance terms, the proportions of 1M, 3M, 6M, 9M, and 1Y were 70%, 7%, 5%, 8%, and 10% respectively. Among them, 1M increased by 59.19 percentage points compared to last week, while 3M, 6M, 9M, and 1Y decreased by 16.75 percentage points, 13.39 percentage points, 13.11 percentage points, and 15.93 percentage points respectively compared to last week [46]. 4.3 Relative Valuation - On October 10, the spread between the yield to maturity of 1 - year AAA - rated inter - bank certificates of deposit and R007 was 18bp, at the 37% quantile since 2020. The spread between the yield to maturity of 10 - year treasury bonds and 1 - year AAA - rated inter - bank certificates of deposit was 18bp, at the 41% quantile since 2020 [49].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The company is focusing on expanding its capabilities in the fields of robotics and AI, particularly through the acquisition of Jin Nan Magnetic Materials, which will enhance its product offerings and production capacity [1][8] - Revenue for 2024 is projected to be 500 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 20%, with net profit expected to reach 83 million yuan, a 48% increase year-on-year [2] - The management anticipates revenue growth from 570 million yuan in 2025 to 680 million yuan in 2027, with net profit commitments of no less than 82 million yuan in 2025, 89 million yuan in 2026, and 94 million yuan in 2027 [2] Financial and Profitability Forecast - The company expects revenues of 1.006 billion yuan in 2025, 1.228 billion yuan in 2026, and 1.494 billion yuan in 2027, with respective growth rates of 13%, 22%, and 22% [3] - The projected net profit for 2025 is 165 million yuan, increasing to 243 million yuan in 2026 and 321 million yuan in 2027, with compound annual growth rates of 14%, 48%, and 32% respectively [3] - The company maintains a PE ratio forecast of 34 for 2025, 23 for 2026, and 17 for 2027 [3] Business Development and Strategic Initiatives - The company is investing in the development of precision metal components and high-performance alloy materials, with a focus on applications in emerging fields such as electric vehicles, 5G base stations, and AI servers [2][8] - The acquisition of Jin Nan Magnetic Materials is expected to enhance the company's capabilities in permanent magnet materials, soft magnetic materials, and precision alloy components, with a significant portion of revenue coming from these segments [8]