证券研究报告 | 浙商早知道 报告日期：2025 年 07 月 07 日 浙商早知道 2025 年 07 月 07 日 ：张延兵 执业证书编号：S1230511010020 ：021-80106048 ：zhangyanbing@stocke.com.cn 重要推荐 【浙商纺服 马莉/詹陆雨/邹国强】海澜之家（600398）公司点评：主业企稳+新业态加速，稳增长高分红属性凸显 ——20250704 重要观点 重要点评 【浙商通信 张建民/王逢节】通信 行业深度：ASIC 深度：AI 算力添动力，打开成长新空间——20250705 http://www.stocke.com.cn 1/5 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 【浙商策略 廖静池/王大霁/赵闻恺】策略深度报告：银行：趋势的力量，坚定的胆量——20250704 【浙商科创&海外策略 王杨】科创&海外市场策略深度研究：解码主题投资兼论稳定币机会——20250704 【浙商策略 廖静池/王大霁】A 股策略周报：多头格局继续，持原仓、享收益、不追高——20250705 浙商早报 1 重要推荐 1.1 【浙商纺服 马莉/詹陆雨/邹国强】海澜之家（600398） ...

证券研究报告 | 策略深度报告 | 中国策略 如何看待特朗普 TACO 交易？ ——策略深度报告 核心观点 2025 年 1 月特朗普上任至今，美国通胀和就业数据等基本面信息对资产的定价权重和 波动的贡献度明显收敛，"TACO 交易"则为其中的重要原因。我们发现，特朗普施压 阶段，可买入黄金、债券等避险类资产；股市层面，A 股的农林牧渔、港股的医疗板 块和美股的公用事业板块相对稳健。特朗普退让阶段，可买入权益资产，A 股金融和 科技板块相对占优。当前海外核心风险在于美联储降息节奏过慢，利息支出高位强化 市场对美国财政可持续性质疑。展望 2025Q3，国内权益市场或"以我为主"，对于 A 股我们仍建议以银行为压舱石，并对券商+军工+TMT 进行均衡配置。海外关注美元 资产配置再平衡，美股可能韧性强于预期，但需警惕滞胀预期潜在抬升可能性的扰动。 ❑ TACO 交易策略案例 案例Ⅰ： 对等关税对全球资本市场的流动性冲击。 案例Ⅱ： 特朗普对欧盟的关税 施压。 案例Ⅲ： 马斯克和特朗普利益层面的博弈。 ❑ TACO 博弈出现的深层次原因 （1）源于特朗普的博弈策略"求其上者得其中"。（2）特朗普政府寻求在多重目 标之 ...

证券研究报告 钢铁周报："反内卷"叠加唐山减排，钢铁权益 低估值下迎来强修复 行业评级：看好 | | | | 分析师 | 沈皓俊 | 研究助理 | 张轩 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 邮箱 | shenhaojun@stocke.com.cn | 邮箱 | zhangxuan01@stocke.com.cn | | 证书编号 | S1230523080011 | | | | | 【浙商金属】 | | 钢铁周度数据 | （2025年7月6日） | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 价格 | | | 周涨跌幅 | 年初至今涨跌幅 | | | | 上证指数 | | 3 472 , | 1 4% . | 3 . | 6% | | | 沪深300 | | 3 982 , | 1 5% . | 1 . | 2% | | 板 | SW钢铁指数 | | 2 219 , | 5 1% . | 5 . | 6% | | 块 | | SW普钢指数 | 2 240 , | 6 5% . | 7 . | 3% | | | | SW特钢指 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [7] Core Insights - The company's stock option incentive plan targets 85 individuals, accounting for approximately 26.32% of the total workforce of 323 employees as of December 31, 2024 [1] - The performance targets for the incentive plan are set for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, focusing on revenue growth and specific revenue milestones for physical AI products [2][3][4] - The company is concentrating on physical AI, aiming to create a comprehensive service platform that is expected to drive the intelligent upgrade of industrial manufacturing [5] - Continuous mergers and acquisitions are anticipated to integrate quality resources, which may accelerate the company's performance growth [6] Financial Forecasts - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 566.48 million, 788.01 million, and 1,073.86 million yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, representing year-on-year growth rates of 49.54%, 39.11%, and 36.27% [12] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 68.88 million, 102.37 million, and 142.02 million yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 66.18%, 48.62%, and 38.73% [12] - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 0.77, 1.15, and 1.59 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [12]

证券研究报告 | 债券市场专题研究 | 债券研究 债券市场专题研究 报告日期：2025 年 07 月 06 日 跨季后资金及存单价格再下台阶 ——流动性与机构行为跟踪 核心观点 资金延续宽松的趋势性较强，短期流动性无需担心，但税期等时点可能会有点状扰动。 ❑ 流动性：资金延续宽松的趋势性较强 过去一周，资金及存单价格均突破近期低点，DR001 加权利率下至 1.3140%，1Y AAA 存单到期收益率下至 1.5929%。 展望后续，虽然跨季后央行层面净回笼力度较大，但是得益于跨季后资金向非银 回流、大行净融出再创今年新高、财政支出节奏加速等因素，资金延续宽松的趋 势性较强。 风险层面，6 月资金宽松较大程度得益于央行短端和长端流动性共同配合，但 7 月 政府债发行节奏放缓，央行短端流动性配合上可能以回收为主，结合当前债市杠 杆率较高的背景，短期流动性无需担心，但税期等时点可能会有点状扰动。 ❑ 机构行为：基金信用需求强于利率，拉久期诉求不减 过去一周，交易盘热度较高，基金拉久期情绪不减，中长期债基久期再创今年新 高，信用债、二级债及利率债均展现出拉久期趋势。 展望后续，短期行情靠交易盘驱动，因此需密切关注超 ...

7 月小盘狂欢：已在山腰，尚未到顶 ——主动量化周报 核心观点 大美丽法案提前落地短期利好权益资产，同时缓解美债超发的冲击。流动性溢出效应 持续，小盘交易热度有望在 7 月延续。 ❑ 7 月海外关键词有哪几个？ 美债超发压力缓和，经济韧性强、通胀预期上修。截至 7 月 2 日，目前美国 TGA 账户余额尚余 3722 亿美元，2020 年以来的中位数约为 6800 亿美元，所需回补的 数额较为有限，且若美债市场偏弱，美国财政部完全有空间延迟回补操作，美债 超发风险有望平稳落地。此外，6 月大超预期的非农暂时排除了美国经济衰退风 险后，未来一段时间，可能的潜在风险主要集中在：（1）7 月 9 日关税谈判截止日 附近，特朗普政府可能展示强硬以逼迫其他国家尽快达成协议，不过即便强硬程 度超预期，初期市场可能仍会以 TACO 逻辑进行交易，除非较长时间持续维持强 硬才会对市场预期形成负向冲击，短期影响可能不大；（2）受油价上涨、美元贬 值带来输入性通胀、关税通胀传导等因素影响，6 月美国通胀数据可能超出市场 当前偏温和的预期，这可能对市场情绪造成一定扰动。整体来说，海外短期偏乐 观，大美丽法案的出台有望强化美股短期上 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6] Core Views - The main brand of the company is expected to stabilize and recover, with a significant improvement in sales trends anticipated in the upcoming quarters [2] - The expansion of the JD Outlet is expected to accelerate, with a strong long-term growth momentum [3] - The company is characterized by high dividend yields, with a stable performance in its main brand leading the industry [1] Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - The company is recognized as the leading men's apparel brand with high dividends, and its main brand is performing steadily, outpacing peers [1] Positive Surprises - The main apparel business is expected to stabilize and rebound, with a forecasted reduction in revenue decline for the main brand in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025, leading to a potential year-on-year revenue increase [2] - The JD Outlet's expansion is anticipated to accelerate in the second half of the year, with a significant number of new stores expected to open [3] Driving Factors - Improvement in the main brand's revenue is expected to enhance profit margins, leading to a steady increase in net profit and attractive dividend yields [4] - The accelerated opening of JD Outlet stores and the gradual refinement of the single-store model are expected to boost market confidence and valuation [4] Earnings Forecast - Revenue is projected to reach 22.3 billion, 24.8 billion, and 26.6 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 6.5%, 11.1%, and 7.4% [4] - Net profit is expected to be 2.41 billion, 2.66 billion, and 2.91 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 11.7%, 10.4%, and 9.2% [4] Valuation Analysis - The company is expected to achieve a net profit exceeding 2 billion yuan in 2025, with a target price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 14, leading to an estimated market value of around 30 billion yuan [5] - The new JD Outlet business is projected to contribute approximately 1 billion yuan to net profit within three years, with a target PE of 20, resulting in an estimated market value of around 20 billion yuan [5]

策略深度报告 证券研究报告 | 策略深度报告 | 中国策略 报告日期:2025年07月04日 银行:趋势的力量,坚定的胆量 -从白酒、新能源汽车和煤炭牛市看银行未来的时间及空间 核心观点 本轮中信银行指数从 2022年11月开始上涨,至今已持续 2年零8个月。当上证指数 在 2024年11月至2025年6月连续8个月窄幅震荡时,中信银行指数已悄然走出技术 性牛市,近期指数更是周线8连阳,股价不断创历史新高。伴随着指数走高,市场对 银行指数是否见顶的讨论逐渐增加。以史为鉴,本篇报告复盘了白酒、新能源汽车和 煤炭三大行业牛市的驱动因素及 DDM 模型股价归因。通过对比,我们认为当下银行 板块或处于"牛市"中段,中信银行指数 PB有望从2022年10月的0.5X修复至 0.8-0.9X 左右。 白酒:2016-2021年,消费红利释放,外资加速配置 1)2016年1月-2018年6月:房地产价格上涨带来财富效应,居民消费升级背景 下,白酒行业迎来量价齐升。在此期间,盈利为拉动股价上涨的主要因素。 分析师:廖静池 执业证书号: S1230524070005 liaojingchi@stocke.com.cn 分析师: ...

证券研究报告 | 策略深度报告 | 中国策略 策略深度报告 报告日期：2025 年 07 月 04 日 银行：趋势的力量，坚定的胆量 ——从白酒、新能源汽车和煤炭牛市看银行未来的时间及空间 核心观点 本轮中信银行指数从 2022 年 11 月开始上涨，至今已持续 2 年零 8 个月。当上证指数 在 2024 年 11 月至 2025 年 6 月连续 8 个月窄幅震荡时，中信银行指数已悄然走出技术 性牛市，近期指数更是周线 8 连阳，股价不断创历史新高。伴随着指数走高，市场对 银行指数是否见顶的讨论逐渐增加。以史为鉴，本篇报告复盘了白酒、新能源汽车和 煤炭三大行业牛市的驱动因素及 DDM 模型股价归因。通过对比，我们认为当下银行 板块或处于"牛市"中段，中信银行指数 PB 有望从 2022 年 10 月的 0.5X 修复至 0.8-0.9X 左右。 ❑ 白酒：2016-2021 年，消费红利释放，外资加速配置 1）2016 年 1 月-2018 年 6 月：房地产价格上涨带来财富效应，居民消费升级背景 下，白酒行业迎来量价齐升。在此期间，盈利为拉动股价上涨的主要因素。 2）2018 年 11 月-2021 年 ...

Group 1: Key Points on "Capacity Reduction" and "Anti-Involution" - The previous round of "capacity reduction" was effective due to four key points: its importance was elevated to the overall stability of people's livelihoods and society, with capacity reduction being prioritized in the 2015 Central Economic Work Conference[3] - The central government clearly defined the scale of excess capacity, established exit plans, and included them in local government assessments[3] - State-owned enterprises played a crucial role, undertaking approximately 80% of steel and 70% of coal capacity reduction tasks[3] - Ensuring employment and livelihoods was a critical bottom line during the capacity reduction process, with policies in place to prevent mass unemployment and major social incidents[3] Group 2: Current Market Outlook and Policy Implications - The direction of "anti-involution" is confirmed, which helps improve market expectations, but the intensity of capacity reduction may be gradual[4] - Short-term focus will be on controlling incremental capacity while optimizing existing capacity, with policies targeting the regulation of ineffective investment behaviors by local governments[4] - Industries with low capacity utilization and high energy consumption, such as non-metallic mineral products, are likely to see faster exit of outdated capacity[5] - Supply-side reforms have historically had a significant upward effect on PPI, but the impact varies based on the speed of supply-demand gap closure[6] - Current industrial product prices may face challenges due to low capacity utilization and high inventory levels, making short-term improvements unlikely[6]