1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry The provided content does not mention the investment rating for the bond market industry. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From the perspective of the first - principle of the bond market, the current short - term and medium - term adjustment trends may resonate, so caution is prioritized at the end of the year. This year's seasonal pattern has clearly failed, and the pre - conditions for the cross - year market are different from previous years, so one should not stick to old methods [1][38]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Bond Market Weekly Observation - **11 - month bond "decline": Reduced sensitivity to positive factors**: Since November, the bond market has shown a "decline", with continuous weakening market sentiment, a persistently bearish market theme, and continuous redemption of liability funds. The news influencing bond pricing has been mostly repetitive, leading institutions to adopt a conservative approach. The relationship between the stock and bond markets has become more complex, with an asymmetric feedback in the stock - bond seesaw effect, indicating the fragility of bond market sentiment [2][13][14]. - **Technical analysis: Potential C - wave adjustment of treasury bond futures at the end of the year**: Since July, TL has shifted from a five - wave upward trend to a three - wave adjustment pattern through an M - top formation, currently in a typical C - wave adjustment. If the decline in the C - wave is assumed to be the same as that in the A - wave, the low point of the C - wave may be around 109 yuan for the TL main contract. The adjustment may last until around the Spring Festival next year [3][19][20]. - **Low bond market volatility: Lack of emotional resonance for the cross - year market**: Despite the increased bond market volatility in the past week, the adjustment amplitude is still small compared to 2023 and 2024. Due to factors such as the stable long - term outlook based on fundamentals, consistent expectations of long - term loose monetary policy, and compressed term spreads, the low - volatility characteristic of interest rates is likely to continue and intensify. The convergence of pure - bond strategies has also led to less differentiation in the returns of pure - bond funds [4][22][26]. - **Institutional behavior: The main theme at the end of the year, with attention to the superposition of three pressures**: In December, institutional behavior may be the main logic driving the bond market. Key factors include the year - end assessment pressure on banks' financial markets, the redemption pressure on the liability side of funds, and the critical node of the rectification of the smoothing mechanism of wealth management trusts. These factors may lead to increased selling pressure in the bond market [5][30][35]. - **Bond strategy: Abandon inertial thinking and approach the cross - year market with caution**: Given the potential resonance of short - term and medium - term adjustment trends, caution is needed at the end of the year. The cross - year market lacks effective driving forces this year, and the end of the "low - volatility + decline" characteristic of the bond market depends on the implementation of fund regulations and loose monetary policy [38]. 3.2 Bond Market Asset Performance The content mainly presents various charts related to bond market asset performance, such as the yield curve of treasury bonds, the yield of inter - bank certificates of deposit, and the spread between government - owned development bonds and treasury bonds, but no specific text summary is provided in the given content. 3.3 High - Frequency Entity Tracking - **Price - related**: The content includes charts of the Southern China Agricultural Products Index, international crude oil prices, average wholesale prices of vegetables and fruits, and average wholesale prices of meat, which are used to track price trends [51][52][54]. - **Industry - related**: Charts of the Southern China Industrial Products Index, closing prices of glass and coking coal, blast furnace operating rates, and petroleum asphalt operating rates are presented to monitor industrial conditions [56][62][69]. - **Investment and real estate - related**: Information on the transaction area of land in 100 large - and medium - sized cities, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities, the second - hand housing listing price index, and the cumulative value of housing completion area is provided to track the real estate market [66][67][71]. - **Travel and consumption - related**: Charts of subway passenger volume, movie box office revenue, passenger car retail volume, and the number of domestic flights are used to monitor travel and consumption trends [76][81][83].

Core Insights - The overall market rebounded this week, with all major indices closing higher, but none managed to recover the 5-week moving average, indicating that the current range-bound oscillation is not yet fully resolved [1][3][50] - The Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index are in their 3rd and 5th weeks of decline from their yearly highs, suggesting that the recent adjustments may not be sufficient [1][3][53] - The Hang Seng Tech Index and the Sci-Tech 50 Index have been adjusting for 8 weeks, with a clearer downward space visible [1][3][53] Market Overview - Major indices saw an overall rebound, with the Shanghai Composite Index, Shanghai 50, and CSI 300 rising by 1.40%, 0.47%, and 1.64% respectively, while growth indices like CSI 500, CSI 1000, and National CSI 2000 increased by 3.14%, 3.77%, and 4.50% respectively [11][50] - The ChiNext Index and Sci-Tech 50 showed significant activity, rising by 4.54% and 3.21% respectively, while the North Star 50 saw a slight increase of 0.75% [11][50] Sector Analysis - The market exhibited a trend of "technology strength and defensive weakness," with 25 sectors rising and 5 falling. Notably, the "TMT Four Giants" (Telecommunications, Electronics, Media) saw increases of 8.74%, 6.17%, and 4.16% respectively, while the Computer sector rose by 2.97% [14][51] - Defensive sectors such as Oil & Petrochemicals, Coal, Transportation, and Banking experienced declines of 0.62%, 0.54%, 0.53%, and 0.5% respectively [14][51] Market Sentiment - The average daily trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.85 trillion yuan, slightly lower than the previous week's 2.02 trillion yuan [17] - The main futures contracts (IF, IH, IC) were mostly in backwardation, indicating a bearish sentiment in the market [17] Fund Flow - The margin trading balance slightly increased to 2.46 trillion yuan, with a financing buy ratio of 10.4%, up from 9.4% the previous week [26] - The consumer ETF saw a net inflow of 1.7 million yuan, while the electronic ETF experienced a net outflow of 10.3 million yuan [26] Quantitative Analysis - The valuation levels of major market indices are generally in the medium to high range, with the ChiNext Index showing a slightly lower valuation percentile [45] - The current downward energy model indicates that the market's downward energy is at a normal level, without triggering any sell signals [45][48] Future Outlook - Despite the recent rebound, the market remains below the 5-week moving average, and some indices have not yet repaired last week's downward gaps, suggesting that the current range-bound oscillation is not fully resolved [3][53] - The broker index is currently at a critical point, having increased from approximately 70 billion yuan to over 150 billion yuan in the past three months, indicating a potential focus for future directional choices [53][54] Investment Strategy - It is recommended to hold positions during the range-bound oscillation and avoid chasing prices or increasing costs [54] - Specific targets should be set based on the "left foot" of different major indices, with a focus on sectors that are lagging but expanding in market share, such as brokerage firms, pharmaceuticals, consumer goods, and AI applications [54]

Market Overview - On Thursday, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.3%, while the CSI 300 fell by 0.1%, the STAR Market 50 decreased by 0.3%, the CSI 1000 increased by 0.1%, and the ChiNext Index dropped by 0.4%. The Hang Seng Index saw a slight increase of 0.1% [4] - The best-performing sectors on Thursday included light industry manufacturing (+1.1%), basic chemicals (+1.0%), oil and petrochemicals (+0.9%), coal (+0.8%), and beauty care (+0.7%). The worst-performing sectors were comprehensive (-2.3%), media (-1.4%), retail (-1.2%), computer (-0.8%), and building materials (-0.7%) [4] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets on Thursday was 1,709.6 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 1.33 billion Hong Kong dollars from southbound funds [4] Key Insights Home Appliances Sector - The home appliance sector shows resilience, with opportunities in overseas markets due to improving external demand and enhanced overseas production efficiency. There is a focus on emerging growth areas [5] - Market concerns exist regarding the impact of domestic subsidy reductions on demand, but the report maintains a positive outlook on leading white goods companies like Midea Group and Haier Smart Home, which are less sensitive to these changes [5] - Key drivers include alleviated industry competition, improving overseas demand, and stable domestic demand [5] Macro Research - The macroeconomic report emphasizes that under the framework of a unified national market, "anti-involution" focuses more on high-quality supply optimization rather than merely clearing excess capacity [6] - The report maintains a consistent viewpoint regarding the significant efforts to combat "involution" [6] Social Services Sector - The social services sector is witnessing a warming in pricing, with service consumption outperforming goods consumption. Travel demand remains robust, and hotel RevPAR is showing signs of recovery [8] - The report highlights a shift in local retail from store closures to inventory adjustments, which is expected to release profits [8] - Key drivers include CPI, same-store sales, and social retail performance [8] Medical Devices Sector - The medical devices sector is viewed positively due to investment opportunities arising from payment policy optimization and growth driven by the Belt and Road Initiative [9] - The report emphasizes the potential for high-value consumables to accelerate growth following the completion of centralized procurement [9] - Key drivers include ongoing innovation in medical devices and the international expansion of the sector [9]

Group 1: Industrial Profit Trends - In the period from January to October 2025, the profit growth of industrial enterprises was 1.9%, down from 3.2% previously, indicating a gradual recovery trend[1] - In October 2025, profits of industrial enterprises decreased by 5.5% year-on-year, influenced by a high base from the previous year and rising financial costs[1] - The average two-year profit growth rate for October was -1.2%, showing a further slowdown compared to previous months[1] Group 2: Price and Demand Dynamics - The Producer Price Index (PPI) in October recorded a year-on-year decline of 2.1%, slightly improved from -2.3% in the previous month, reflecting marginal optimization in market competition[2] - The operating profit margin for industrial enterprises was 5.25% from January to October, a slight increase of 0.01 percentage points year-on-year, but decreased to 5.16% in October compared to 5.42% in September[2] Group 3: New Productive Forces - High-tech manufacturing profits grew by 8.0% year-on-year, outperforming the overall industrial average by 6.1 percentage points[3] - Equipment manufacturing profits increased by 7.8%, contributing 2.8 percentage points to the overall profit growth of industrial enterprises, with a total profit share of 38.5%[3] Group 4: Traditional Industries Performance - In traditional industries, new productive forces showed positive results, with profits in specific sectors like graphite and carbon products increasing by 77.7% and biochemical pesticides by 73.4%, both significantly above their respective industry averages[4] Group 5: Future Outlook - Industrial profits are expected to gradually recover, with a projected annual growth rate of 3.6% for 2026, supported by steady demand and reduced pressure on industrial growth[7] - The inventory of industrial enterprises increased by 3.7% year-on-year by the end of October 2025, indicating that destocking is not yet complete and further demand strength is needed[8] Group 6: Risk Factors - Insufficient economic recovery momentum could lead to weak industrial demand and pressure on prices, adversely affecting profit recovery[9] - Delays in the implementation of demand-side policies may hinder the expected recovery in industrial profits, particularly if internal growth drivers remain weak[9]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report regarding industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints The report focuses on systematically introducing the design logic and usage methods of the "Daily Chart" for convertible bond selection under different style dimensions. It covers a five - style ("Behavior - Valuation - Volatility") three - dimensional logical framework designed with 115 factors, aiming to screen convertible bond targets with future income elasticity and provide quantitative strategy support for asset allocation and fixed - income plus strategies [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Quantitative Perspective on the Convertible Bond Market In the context of "low interest rates - expansion of fixed - income plus strategies - structural slow - bull market", the convertible bond market shows increased trading activity, strengthened equity nature, and diversified capital structures. As of November 26, 2025, the market had a stock of 566.59 billion yuan and 412 bonds. Traditional bond - selection methods are difficult to capture short - term driving forces, so a multi - factor framework for daily tracking is needed [12]. 2. Style Perspective on the Convertible Bond Multi - Factor System 2.1 Five Categories of Style Factors Introduction A multi - dimensional system with 115 daily - frequency factors was constructed. The five style dimensions are valuation, momentum, volatility, liquidity, and price - volume correlation. Valuation factors measure price relative to fundamentals; momentum factors measure price trends; volatility factors measure risk and option features; liquidity factors measure tradability; and price - volume correlation factors measure market sentiment and structural games [13][17]. 2.2 Correlation between Five Categories of Style Factors and Returns The effectiveness test shows that valuation factors have stable positive explanatory power; volatility and liquidity factors perform well in trading - type markets; momentum and price - volume correlation factors show "reverse momentum" characteristics [17]. 3. Style Dimension of the Convertible Bond "Daily Chart" The "Daily Chart" is updated after the market closes. It presents potential convertible bonds from five style factors, with color - coded columns for easy identification of valuation, weekly performance, and style differences. It serves as a post - market observation tool, a reference for actual trading, and a risk - control and monitoring tool [3][19].

Market Overview - On November 26, the Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.15%, while the CSI 300 increased by 0.61%, the STAR Market 50 rose by 0.99%, the CSI 1000 fell by 0.02%, and the ChiNext Index increased by 2.14%. The Hang Seng Index rose by 0.13% [4][6] - The best-performing sectors on November 26 were telecommunications (+4.64%), comprehensive (+1.79%), electronics (+1.58%), retail (+1.11%), and home appliances (+0.96%). The worst-performing sectors were defense and military (-2.25%), social services (-0.97%), media (-0.82%), oil and petrochemicals (-0.8%), and banking (-0.79%) [4][6] - The total trading volume for the A-share market on November 26 was 17,971.9 billion yuan, with a net outflow of 3.952 billion Hong Kong dollars from southbound funds [4][6] Important Recommendations - The report recommends Chengda Biological (688739) due to the synergistic effects of shareholder involvement and continuous innovation. The company is expected to see accelerated transformation and revenue growth driven by mergers and acquisitions and new vaccine commercialization [7] - Revenue forecasts for Chengda Biological from 2025 to 2027 are 1,347.93 million yuan, 1,418.37 million yuan, and 1,530.02 million yuan, with growth rates of -19.59%, 5.23%, and 7.87% respectively. Net profit is projected to be 200.23 million yuan, 222.63 million yuan, and 253.73 million yuan, with growth rates of 41.59%, 11.19%, and 13.97% respectively [7] Industry Insights Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery - The core viewpoint emphasizes deepening value in the agricultural sector and positioning for new cyclical opportunities. The market outlook indicates continued pressure on pig prices, uncertainty in beef prices, and persistent low prices for poultry, with intensified competition in feed and animal health sectors [8][9] - The report suggests that leading pig enterprises can maintain profitability through cost advantages and structural optimization despite production capacity constraints. The feed sector is expected to see growth potential for companies with cost control and integrated supply chains, while the animal health sector may benefit from pet care and international expansion [9][12] Non-Banking Financial Sector - The non-banking financial sector is anticipated to experience a rebound in 2026, characterized by a combination of high probability and favorable odds. The market outlook for this sector is cautious due to the high base in 2025, but a potential recovery is expected amid a long-term "slow bull" market for equities [10][13] - The report highlights that the asset and liability sides of the financial sector are expected to resonate positively, supporting the overall growth of the sector [13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company reported Q3 2025 performance with revenue of 3.14 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 97 million, up 112% year-on-year, driven by stable growth in cross-border e-commerce [1][3] - The cross-border e-commerce business showed robust growth, with significant sales increases for key brands on Amazon in the U.S. [2] - The gross profit margin improved to 17.56%, up 3.24 percentage points year-on-year, contributing to the overall profit enhancement [3] Summary by Sections Q3 Performance - Revenue reached 3.14 billion, a 4.4% increase year-on-year - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 97 million, a 112% increase year-on-year - Non-recurring net profit was 93 million, up 110% year-on-year [1] Cross-Border E-commerce Growth - The cross-border e-commerce business maintained steady growth despite tariff fluctuations - Key brands such as Sweetcrispy, Dumos, and Smug showed strong sales performance from July to September, with Sweetcrispy sales increasing by 34.5%, 32.3%, and 38.8% year-on-year [2] - Dumos sales increased by 89.0%, 54.8%, and 147.9% year-on-year, while Smug saw increases of 24.2%, 9.8%, and 130.1% year-on-year [2] Profitability and Margin Improvement - The gross profit margin for Q3 was 17.56%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.24 percentage points - The operating expense ratio was 13.29%, up 0.52 percentage points year-on-year, with sales expense ratio at 7.31%, up 2.28 percentage points [3] - The net profit margin was 3.1%, an increase of 1.57 percentage points year-on-year, indicating potential for further profit recovery [3] Earnings Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 12.035 billion, 13.074 billion, and 14.180 billion, representing year-on-year growth of 9%, 8.64%, and 8.45% respectively - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 384 million, 500 million, and 605 million, with year-on-year growth of 45.98%, 30.26%, and 20.90% respectively [4][6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [4] Core Insights - The company's performance is expected to stabilize and recover due to dual market drivers from domestic and international markets, with significant collaborations with leading battery manufacturers [2] - The solid-state battery technology is anticipated to open a new growth curve for the company, with a projected market size increase from 2.06 billion to 33.62 billion by 2030, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 74.8% [3] - The company's profitability is forecasted to grow significantly, with net profits expected to reach 535 million, 776 million, and 1.055 billion from 2025 to 2027, representing a compound growth rate of 40.31% [4] Financial Performance Summary - For Q1-Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 2.721 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.87%, and a net profit of 386 million, up 2.59% year-on-year [1] - In Q3 2025, revenue was 751 million, down 3.75% year-on-year, with a net profit of 97.67 million, a decrease of 8.35% year-on-year [1] - The gross margin for Q3 2025 reached over 40%, indicating a significant improvement in profitability [1] Market Position and Strategy - The company is deepening partnerships with major battery manufacturers such as BYD and LG, and expanding its global footprint, including establishing a factory in Korea and becoming a supplier for Tesla [2] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the recovery of the lithium battery equipment industry starting from Q4 2024, as major international battery manufacturers announce expansion plans [2]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the resilience of the home appliance industry, particularly the white goods sector, and highlights the ongoing benefits from international expansion and growth opportunities in emerging markets [1][4][5] - The report maintains a positive outlook on leading companies in the white goods sector, suggesting that they possess strong operational resilience and are well-positioned to navigate market challenges [1][5][17] Investment Recommendations - **Main Line 1**: Focus on high dividend yields and high ROE, capitalizing on the operational resilience of leading white goods companies [3][11] - **Main Line 2**: Leverage the ongoing benefits from international expansion, as leading white goods companies have established global production capacities and can adapt to tariff policies [5][4] - **Main Line 3**: Follow valuation trends and sectors with upward beta, indicating potential growth opportunities [7] - **Main Line 4**: Pay attention to new product categories with low penetration and high growth potential, which could offer significant market opportunities [8] Performance Analysis - The report analyzes the performance of key white goods companies during the pressure testing period of Q2 and Q3 2025, noting that Midea Group and Haier Smart Home demonstrated strong operational resilience despite challenges [13][16] - The report provides detailed financial metrics for major players, indicating that Midea Group and Haier Smart Home maintained positive revenue growth, while Gree Electric experienced declines [14][15][16] Market Dynamics - The report discusses the competitive landscape, noting that leading companies have effectively managed pricing strategies to counter competition from emerging brands like Xiaomi [32][36] - It highlights the importance of understanding the impact of government subsidy policies on industry demand, particularly as the market enters a high base period in Q4 2025 [22][24] Global Expansion and Tariff Resilience - The report outlines the global production strategies of leading companies, emphasizing their ability to mitigate risks associated with tariff changes through diversified production locations [41][46] - It notes that China's dominance in global white goods production allows for effective pricing strategies and resilience against policy uncertainties [46][47] Consumer Demand and Economic Indicators - The report indicates that consumer demand in North America is closely tied to real estate trends, suggesting that a potential interest rate cut could stimulate home appliance consumption in 2026 [52][58] - It highlights the correlation between housing sales and appliance consumption, emphasizing the importance of monitoring macroeconomic indicators [58][59]

Market Overview - On November 25, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.87%, the CSI 300 increased by 0.95%, the STAR 50 went up by 0.43%, the CSI 1000 climbed by 1.31%, the ChiNext Index gained 1.77%, and the Hang Seng Index rose by 0.69% [5] - The best-performing sectors on November 25 were telecommunications (+3.54%), media (+2.85%), non-ferrous metals (+2.42%), comprehensive (+2.21%), and electronics (+2.14%). The worst-performing sectors were defense and military (-0.32%) and transportation (-0.11%) [5][4] - The total trading volume of the A-share market on November 25 was 1,826.2 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 11.166 billion Hong Kong dollars from southbound funds [5][4] Important Recommendations - The report highlights 吉祥航空 (China's private airline leader) as a key investment opportunity, noting that the airline industry is approaching a supply-demand inflection point. The company's aircraft utilization is expected to recover, and ticket prices are anticipated to rise, leading to potential earnings exceeding expectations [6] - The report suggests that the worst performance period for 吉祥航空 has passed, with a forecast for significant earnings recovery over the next three years. The expected aircraft utilization recovery is projected for 2026-2027, with the introduction of 5-6 new aircraft annually under the 九元 plan [6] - The target price for 吉祥航空 is set at a 20x PE for 2027, corresponding to a target market value of 45.9 billion yuan [6] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The projected operating revenue for 吉祥航空 from 2025 to 2027 is 22,044 million yuan, 23,196 million yuan, and 24,940 million yuan, with growth rates of 0%, 5%, and 8% respectively. The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 1,007 million yuan, 1,571 million yuan, and 2,294 million yuan, with growth rates of 10%, 56%, and 46% respectively [7] - The earnings per share are expected to be 0.46 yuan, 0.72 yuan, and 1.05 yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, with corresponding PE ratios of 27.09, 17.36, and 11.89 [7] Important Insights - The macroeconomic report indicates that the GDP weekly high-frequency prosperity index was at 4.7% as of November 22, remaining stable compared to the previous week [8] - The report emphasizes that traditional economic indicators may not accurately reflect the current economic structure transformation, suggesting a need for updated measurement methods [8]