Market Overview - The A-share market has shown signs of "cooling," with major indices displaying divergence, particularly the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.83% while the Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 fell by 1.54% and 0.62%, respectively, both breaking below the 20-day moving average[12] - Growth indices such as the CSI 500, CSI 1000, and National CSI 2000 have performed better, rising by 4.34%, 2.89%, and 3.33%, respectively, continuing to reach new highs in this bull market[12] Sector Performance - Among the 31 sectors, 24 saw gains while 7 experienced declines, indicating a trend of lagging sectors catching up, with cyclical industries like construction materials, oil and petrochemicals, and real estate rising by 9.23%, 7.71%, and 5.21% respectively[15] - The financial sector weakened, with banks and non-bank financials declining by 2.70% and 1.45% respectively, while the previously strong communication sector showed signs of reversal, dropping by 2.12%[15] Market Sentiment and Capital Flow - The average daily trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets decreased to 2.7 trillion yuan, reflecting a decline in market activity[22] - The margin trading balance fell by 0.24% to 2.69 trillion yuan, with the most significant net inflow seen in the non-ferrous ETF, amounting to 19.5 billion yuan[27] Economic Indicators - China's GDP for 2025 exceeded 140 trillion yuan, growing by 5.0% year-on-year, with industrial output increasing by 5.9% and service sector growth at 5.4%[49] - The People's Bank of China lowered the re-lending and re-discount rates by 0.25%, with new rates set at 0.95%, 1.15%, and 1.25% for different terms[49] Investment Strategy - The report suggests maintaining a balanced mid-term portfolio in sectors with high economic activity and reasonable valuations, particularly in the "two electricity, chemical, non-bank, and machinery" sectors, while also considering lower-positioned media and computer stocks[53] - Investors are advised to focus on the CSI 500, CSI 1000, and National CSI 2000 for relative returns, especially in a "broad-based rally" scenario[53]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Hangzhou Bank is "Buy" (maintained) [8] Core Insights - Hangzhou Bank's 2025 performance report indicates that operating revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 1.1% and 12.1% year-on-year, respectively, with growth rates slowing by 0.3 percentage points and 2.5 percentage points compared to the first three quarters of 2025 [2][3] - The bank's core revenue structure is better than expected, with both net interest income and non-interest income growth rates improving compared to the previous quarters [2] - The bank's loan growth rate reached 14.3% year-on-year by the end of Q4 2025, benefiting from an aggressive lending strategy [3] - The non-performing loan ratio remained stable at 0.76% at the end of Q4 2025, with a provision coverage ratio of 502%, indicating a high level of provisions relative to non-performing loans [4] Financial Performance Summary - For 2025, Hangzhou Bank's operating revenue is projected to be 38,799 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.09%, while net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 19,028 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 12.05% [7] - The bank's net interest income is forecasted to grow by 12.82% in 2025, while non-interest income is expected to decline by 19.52% [12] - The estimated book value per share (BPS) for 2025 is 18.38 yuan, with a target price of 19.09 yuan per share, indicating a potential upside of 25% [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Hangzhou Bank is maintained as "Buy" [8] Core Insights - Hangzhou Bank's 2025 performance report indicates that operating revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 1.1% and 12.1% year-on-year, respectively, with growth rates slowing by 0.3 percentage points and 2.5 percentage points compared to the first three quarters of 2025 [2][3] - The bank's core revenue structure is better than expected, with both net interest income and non-interest income growth rates improving compared to the previous quarters [2] - The bank's loan growth rate as of the end of Q4 2025 was 14.3%, reflecting a 1.7 percentage point increase quarter-on-quarter, attributed to an aggressive lending strategy [3] Financial Performance Summary - For 2025, Hangzhou Bank's net interest income grew by 12.8% year-on-year, with a net interest margin of 1.23%, up by 2 basis points from the previous quarters [2] - Non-interest income saw a decline of 31% year-on-year, with the decrease attributed to market fluctuations [2] - The bank's total loans are projected to continue double-digit growth in 2026, supported by strong loan issuance capabilities [3] - The non-performing loan ratio remained stable at 0.76% as of Q4 2025, with a provision coverage ratio of 502%, indicating a solid risk management position [4] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit growth for Hangzhou Bank is 12.05% for 2025, 11.33% for 2026, and 10.40% for 2027, with corresponding book values per share (BPS) of 18.38, 20.96, and 23.40 yuan [5] - The target price is set at 19.09 yuan per share, corresponding to a target valuation of 0.91 times price-to-book (PB) for 2026, indicating a potential upside of 25% from the current price [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [7] Core Views - The report emphasizes that "A New Era, New SANY" is set to begin, with the engineering machinery industry experiencing upward resonance both domestically and internationally, positioning the leading Chinese engineering machinery company for global expansion [1] - The company is identified as one of the most elastic stocks in terms of performance during the excavator cycle, with a significant portion of its revenue derived from excavators [4][11] - The report highlights the ongoing globalization strategy of the company, with international revenue and gross profit showing substantial growth [4][11] Industry Overview - The engineering machinery industry is experiencing a cyclical reversal, with both domestic and international markets showing positive trends. The global market size for engineering machinery is projected to reach $213.5 billion in 2024 and $296.1 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 6% from 2024 to 2030 [2] - The domestic excavator market is expected to see a gradual recovery, driven by demand from agriculture, forestry, and municipal projects, with total excavator sales projected to reach 235,257 units in 2025, a 17% increase year-on-year [2][18] - The company is benefiting from increased market share overseas, particularly in emerging markets in Asia, Africa, and Latin America, which are experiencing industrialization and urbanization [3][11] Company Performance - The company’s excavator revenue accounted for 39% of its total revenue in the first half of 2025, indicating strong potential for performance elasticity as the excavator industry enters an upward cycle [4][27] - The company’s international revenue and gross profit represented 60% and 68% of its main business revenue and gross profit, respectively, in the first half of 2025, with year-on-year growth of 12% and 10% [4][28] - The successful listing of H-shares is expected to further advance the company's globalization strategy, with net proceeds from the offering allocated to expanding global sales and service networks, enhancing R&D capabilities, and optimizing production efficiency [5][23] Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 8.51 billion, 11.04 billion, and 14.12 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, representing year-on-year growth rates of 42%, 30%, and 28% [13][15]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [5] Core Insights - The report anticipates a significant growth in the Chinese surgical robot market, projecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 34% from 2024 to 2032, with the market size expected to increase from 7.2 billion RMB to 76.7 billion RMB [2][14] - The report identifies key catalysts for growth in 2026, including the implementation of a fee schedule and accelerated hospital admissions for domestic surgical robots, which are expected to enhance market penetration [3][20] - The report highlights the potential for overseas expansion as a new growth driver for surgical robot manufacturers, with domestic companies beginning to enter international markets [4][23] Summary by Sections Industry Space - The overall market size for surgical robots in China is projected to exceed 70 billion RMB, with a CAGR of about 34% from 2024 to 2032 [2][14] - The laparoscopic surgical robot segment is expected to dominate, accounting for over 58% of the market by 2024, with a CAGR of approximately 29% [14][15] - The orthopedic surgical robot market is also expected to grow significantly, with a projected CAGR of around 41% during the same period [15] Catalysts for 2026 - The report outlines three phases in the development of domestic surgical robots: early development, rapid growth, and maturity [3][20] - The implementation of a clear fee schedule and improved product capabilities are seen as critical for accelerating hospital admissions and market penetration [3][20] Overseas Expansion - The report notes that the Chinese surgical robot market currently represents only about 5% of the global market, indicating substantial room for growth [4][23] - Companies like MicroPort and Precision Medical are already making strides in international markets, with significant orders and certifications obtained [4][23] Profitability Models Compared to Overseas Leaders - The report compares domestic surgical robots to Intuitive Surgical, highlighting a similar business model where equipment sales drive consumable and service revenue [6][27] - The domestic market is expected to follow a similar trajectory, with increasing installation rates leading to higher profitability [6][27] Recommended Companies - The report recommends investing in platform companies with strong commercialization capabilities and innovative upstream manufacturers, specifically mentioning MicroPort, Meihua Medical, and Aikang Medical [8][39] - Companies like Tianzhihang and Precision Medical are noted as ones to watch [8][39]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Nanjing Bank is "Buy" (maintained) [9] Core Insights - Nanjing Bank's revenue for 2025 is expected to achieve double-digit growth, exceeding market expectations, with a year-on-year increase of 10.5% in revenue and 8.1% in net profit attributable to shareholders [2][3] - The bank's net interest income is projected to grow by 31% year-on-year, driven by active balance sheet expansion and stable interest margins [2] - The bank's non-performing loan (NPL) ratio and provision coverage ratio remained stable at 0.83% and 313%, respectively, as of the end of Q4 2025 [4] Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - Nanjing Bank's revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 are forecasted to grow by 10.5% and 8.1% year-on-year, respectively, with an increase of 1.7 percentage points compared to the first three quarters of 2025 [2][3] - The bank's net interest income is expected to continue its upward trend, supported by strong loan growth and stable interest margins [2] Loan and Deposit Growth - As of Q4 2025, Nanjing Bank's loans and deposits grew by 13.4% and 11.7% year-on-year, respectively, although the growth rates showed a slight slowdown compared to Q3 2025 [3] - The bank is expanding its customer base, with a 19% increase in corporate value clients year-on-year [3] Shareholder Activity - On January 12, 2026, Nanjing Bank disclosed that its major shareholder, Zijin Group, increased its stake by 1% from September 11, 2025, to January 12, 2026, reflecting confidence in the bank's future development [5] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecasted growth rates for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 are 8.08%, 9.54%, and 8.86%, respectively, with corresponding book values per share (BPS) of 14.64, 16.26, and 17.69 yuan [6] - The target price is maintained at 14.64 yuan per share, implying a target valuation of 0.90 times price-to-book (PB) for 2026, with a potential upside of 40% from the current price [6]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" (maintained) [6] Core Insights - The industry is at a valuation and profit bottom, with pulp prices expected to rise due to the US dollar interest rate cut cycle [1][12] - The supply of commodity pulp is tightening, with limited new overseas capacity expected after 2025, while domestic self-sufficient pulp production is increasing [2][19] - Short-term demand remains resilient, driven by Chinese demand, but structural impacts from self-sufficient pulp projects may suppress commodity pulp demand in the medium term [2][25] - Current inventory levels are relatively low, supporting strong price expectations for Q1 2026 [3][41] - Cost differences in pulp production are significant, with domestic pulp relying heavily on imported wood chips [3][33] Summary by Sections Section 1: Market Cycle and Price Dynamics - The pulp and paper cycle is at a bottom, with historical price performance indicating a potential rebound [1][11] - As of January 16, paper prices are at historical low percentiles, while pulp prices are also low, providing a safety margin for the industry [1][11] - The US dollar's depreciation is expected to stimulate demand and drive pulp prices upward [12] Section 2: Supply and Demand Analysis - Commodity pulp supply is slowing, with global capacity at approximately 36.14 million tons as of 2024, and utilization rates around 90% [2][19] - Domestic self-sufficient pulp production is projected to add about 6.6 million tons in 2025-2026, primarily from vertical integration projects [24] - Global demand for hardwood pulp is expected to remain resilient, with a year-on-year increase of 7% in shipments driven by China [25][26] Section 3: Inventory Levels - Global hardwood pulp producer inventory days are at 44.7 days, indicating a relatively low stock level [3][37] - China's main port inventory has decreased to 1.906 million tons, reflecting strong demand and continuous inventory reduction [41] Section 4: Cost Structure - The cash cost of domestic pulp production varies significantly based on the source of wood chips, with costs around $480 per ton for imported wood and $420 per ton for domestic wood [3][33] - The cost structure is influenced by the production of self-sufficient pulp, which may lead to increased domestic wood chip prices [44] Section 5: Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include Sun Paper, Nine Dragons Paper, Xianhe Paper, and Bohui Paper, which have strong cost control and high self-sufficient pulp ratios [4][56][57][58]

Investment Rating - The industry rating for the EDA sector is "Positive" [3] Core Insights - The EDA industry is a crucial tool for semiconductor design, with a global market size of approximately $15.7 billion in 2024, representing only 2.5% of the semiconductor industry valued at $631 billion, yet it supports a multi-trillion dollar digital economy [1][14] - The Chinese EDA market is expected to grow from 19.3 billion yuan to 35.4 billion yuan between 2025 and 2027, with a CAGR of 35.4%, significantly outpacing the global growth rate of 7.84% [1][16] - The global EDA market is highly concentrated, dominated by three major players: Synopsys, Cadence, and Siemens EDA, which have built their market positions through decades of systematic mergers and acquisitions [2] - The domestic EDA industry in China is experiencing rapid growth but faces structural bottlenecks, including fragmented competition, a shortage of high-end talent, and barriers to entry due to established international ecosystems [2][3] - Policy direction is shifting from fragmented competition to platform collaboration, with government support aimed at promoting integration and upgrading the industry [2] Summary by Sections EDA Industry Characteristics - EDA is a foundational tool for the trillion-dollar semiconductor industry, with its market size rapidly expanding in China [8][9] - The industry has high capital requirements and a significant demand for skilled talent, with a long training cycle [21] - High barriers to entry and strong binding among full-process platform companies enhance competitive advantages [22][25] Global EDA Development History - The rise of EDA in the U.S. is attributed to high investment and strategic government support, with a focus on mergers and acquisitions [27][28] - The U.S. government has historically invested in EDA as a strategic pillar for enhancing semiconductor and defense competitiveness [28][29] Current State of China's EDA Industry - The Chinese EDA market is growing rapidly but is hindered by fragmentation, capital concentration, talent shortages, and ecological barriers [3][16] - The domestic EDA industry is at a critical juncture for breakthrough and integration, with increasing policy support [3] Investment Recommendations - The EDA sector is seen as being at a pivotal moment for domestic replacement, with increasing policy support and active consolidation among leading platform companies [3] - Recommended companies for long-term investment include Huada Jiutian, Gai Lun Electronics, and Guangli Micro [3]

证券研究报告 | 公司深度 | 酒店餐饮 小菜园(00999) 报告日期：2026 年 01 月 21 日 从徽菜烟火到千店网络，凭效率升级驱动规模扩张 ——小菜园深度报告 投资要点 ❑ 全国领先的大众便民中式餐饮连锁企业，稳健扩张驱动增长 小菜园是一家全国领先的大众便民餐饮连锁企业，专注于为消费者提供高品质、 标准化的中式餐饮体验。小菜园凭借 SKU 精简、供应链体系完善、自动化设备 投入及门店面积收缩，正进入效率兑现期，未来全国扩张潜力巨大。2021-2024 年，公司收入由 26.5 亿元增至 52.1 亿元，CAGR 约 25%；毛利率由约 66%提升 至约 68%，净利率由约 9%提升至约 11%，盈利能力和资本回报稳步提升。 ❑ 万亿级市场+行业集中度提升，我国中餐市场增长空间广阔 2024 年中国内地餐饮市场规模约 55,000+亿元，2020-2024 年 CAGR 约 9%。其 中中式/非中式餐饮市场结构明显：增速维度，非中式＞中式，2018-2023 年非中 式/中式餐饮 CAGR 约 7%/4%；规模维度，中式＞非中式，2023 年中式/非中式市 场规模约 40,000+/12,000+ ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Su Nong Bank is "Buy" (maintained) [8] Core Views - Su Nong Bank's 2025 performance report indicates steady growth in revenue and profit, with improvements in non-performing loans and provisions [1] - The bank's revenue and net profit for 2025 are projected to grow by 0.4% and 5.0% year-on-year, respectively, with an increase in growth rates compared to the first three quarters of 2025 [2][3] - The outlook for 2026 suggests reduced pressure on core revenue, with expectations of improved interest margins and good growth in non-interest income [3] Financial Performance Summary - For Q4 2025, Su Nong Bank's non-performing loan ratio was 0.88%, a decrease of 2 basis points from the previous quarter, while the provision coverage ratio increased by 14 percentage points to 370% [5] - Loan and deposit growth rates as of Q4 2025 were 7.8% and 7.5% year-on-year, respectively, with a cautious lending strategy expected to maintain single-digit growth in loans for 2026 [4] - The forecast for net profit growth from 2025 to 2027 is 5.04%, 5.27%, and 6.26%, respectively, with a target price of 6.77 CNY per share, indicating a potential upside of 37% [6]