1）从"虚拟货币"到"数字资产"：此次监管范围从虚拟货币扩展至虚拟货币 和现实世界资产代币化（RWA）。 2）从"境内禁止"到"跨境监管"：除再次重申境内虚拟货币相关业务活动属 于非法金融活动外，也对此前市场关注的一些问题明确表态：未经同意，境内外 任何单位和个人不得在境外发行挂钩人民币的稳定币；境外单位和个人不得向境 内主体提供 RWA 相关服务，但经业务主管部门依法依规同意，依托特定金融基 础设施开展的相关业务活动除外；未经同意，境内主体及其控制的境外主体不得 在境外发行虚拟货币。 证券研究报告 | 行业点评 | 非银金融 非银金融 报告日期：2026 年 02 月 08 日 中国 RWA 监管框架落地，香港 Web3 产业迎新变局 投资要点 3）从"业务管控"到"生态治理"：堵漏补缺，明确将持续整治"挖矿"活 动，加强经营主体登记和广告管理（禁止名称和经营范围含"稳定币"、 "RWA"等字样）；且在重申投资者风险自担的基础上，新增对"明知或应知" 境外主体非法向境内提供服务仍提供协助的境内单位和个人的责任追究。 ❑ 投资观点：RWA 作为一种可为实体经济融资的方式，此次政策新规通过明确监 管要求和流程， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The key factors affecting the inter - bank capital situation during the Spring Festival holiday are the change in M0. The 9 - day Spring Festival in 2026 may lead to greater cash leakage and slower cash return to banks, resulting in a lower excess reserve level in the commercial banking system [2][12]. - The cash leakage (M0 month - on - month increase) caused by residents' cash withdrawals during the Spring Festival may exceed 1.7 trillion yuan, and with the 500 - billion - yuan 6M term repurchase "maturity - placement" misalignment, the pre - Spring Festival capital gap may exceed 2.2 trillion yuan [3][13]. - The central bank started to issue 14 - day reverse repurchase on February 5, and the start date and amount of the reverse repurchase across the Spring Festival holiday met expectations. The current low certificate of deposit spread and credit spread fully reflect the market expectation of stable and loose funds and remaining carry trade space [1][4]. - During the Spring Festival holiday, more attention should be paid to the speed of cash return to banks and the appreciation of the RMB. The 9 - day holiday may cause residents to return to work later, and RMB appreciation may consume commercial bank excess reserves [4][15]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 The Focus on the Capital Situation around the Spring Festival Holiday - The main factor affecting the inter - bank capital situation during the Spring Festival is the change in M0. The 9 - day Spring Festival in 2026 will lead to greater cash leakage and slower cash return to banks, resulting in lower excess reserves in the commercial banking system [2][12]. - The cash leakage (M0 month - on - month increase) during the Spring Festival may exceed 1.7 trillion yuan, and combined with the 500 - billion - yuan 6M term repurchase "maturity - placement" misalignment, the pre - Spring Festival capital gap may exceed 2.2 trillion yuan [3][13]. - The central bank issued 14 - day reverse repurchase on February 5, and the start date and amount of the reverse repurchase across the Spring Festival holiday met expectations. The current low spreads reflect the market expectation of stable and loose funds [1][4]. - Attention should be paid to the speed of cash return to banks and RMB appreciation during the holiday [4][15]. 3.2 Narrow - sense Liquidity 3.2.1 Central Bank Operations - Short - term liquidity: The central bank conducted peak - shaving and valley - filling operations. From February 2 to February 6, the net issuance of pledged reverse repurchase was - 756 billion yuan. Medium - and long - term liquidity: The 3M term repurchase was renewed with an excess of 100 billion yuan [16]. 3.2.2 Institution's Lending and Borrowing Situations - Capital supply (lenders): The net lending of large - scale banks reached a record high. Capital demand (borrowers): The absolute financing balance was high, and the relative leverage ratio increased [22][34]. 3.2.3 Repurchase Market Transaction Situation - Capital volume and price: The volume was abundant, and the price was stable. The capital sentiment index showed a gradual easing trend [42][45]. 3.2.4 Interest Rate Swaps - The cost of interest rate swaps decreased slightly, and the spread between CDs and IRS remained at a low level [49]. 3.3 Government Bonds 3.3.1 Next Week's Net Payment of Government Bonds - The net payment of government bonds next week will increase significantly. The net payment in the past week was 460.4 billion yuan, and it is expected to be 643.7 billion yuan next week [52]. 3.3.2 Government Bond Maturity Structure - The report presents the issuance and proportion of government bonds with different maturities in 2024, 2025, and 2026, including treasury bonds and local government bonds [57][58]. 3.4 Certificates of Deposit 3.4.1 Absolute Yield - The report shows the SHIBOR yield curve and the AAA - rated certificate of deposit yield curve and their changes compared with the previous week [62]. 3.4.2 Issuance and Stock Situations - As of February 6, the issuance and stock structures of certificates of deposit of different types of banks are presented, including the issuance and stock amounts and proportions of different maturities [66][67]. 3.4.3 Relative Valuation - The report analyzes the spreads of certificates of deposit, including the spreads between the 1 - year AAA - rated certificate of deposit yield and R007, DR007, and the 10 - year treasury bond yield, and their quantiles since 2020 [69].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [8] Core Insights - The "post-spring excitement" is expected to benefit the agricultural sector, with historical data showing that the agricultural sector consistently outperforms the CSI 300 index in the first quarter after the Spring Festival, particularly in the breeding industry [1][2] - The current market has already shown signs of excitement, with noticeable fluctuations in sectors like metals and technology, indicating a potential shift in focus towards agriculture [2] - The agricultural sector is expected to experience a recovery as it typically enters a warming phase after the low price season post-Spring Festival, which will enhance profitability and sector performance [3] - The post-Spring Festival period often sees a vacuum in market focus, allowing the agricultural sector to gain relative attention and outperform other sectors [4] - The agricultural sector is currently at a low valuation, providing significant price elasticity, which can lead to a strong market performance even with limited capital inflow [5] Summary by Sections Historical Performance - Over the past decade, the agricultural sector has shown a consistent trend of outperforming the CSI 300 index after the Spring Festival, with an average increase of 6.9% in the agricultural sector and 8.9% in the breeding sector in the month following the festival [2][9] - The average performance for the agricultural sector in the first quarter post-Spring Festival is an increase of 11.6%, compared to 3.1% for the CSI 300 index [2][9] Current Market Dynamics - The current market dynamics indicate a shift towards the agricultural sector, with the expectation of a recovery in prices and profitability as the sector moves out of its low season [3][4] - The agricultural sector is positioned to attract more attention as other mainstream sectors have completed their upward trends [4] Investment Recommendations - Recommendations include focusing on the beef cattle sector, with specific emphasis on companies like Yu Ran Mu Ye, and monitoring other firms such as Modern Farming, Aoyuan Group, and China Shengmu [7] - In the pig farming sector, it is advised to explore alpha investment opportunities, particularly in companies like Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuffs, Dekang Agriculture, and Zhengbang Technology [7] - For agricultural products, attention should be directed towards supply contraction-driven varieties, especially in the edible fungus sector with companies like Zhongxing Junye, Hualv Biotechnology, and Xuelong Biological [7]

证券研究报告 | 策略专题研究 | 中国策略 策略专题研究 报告日期：2026 年 02 月 05 日 涨价品种出现分化，券商景气度高增 ——行业景气度跟踪报告（2026 年 2 月） 核心观点 上游周期品中，前期涨价品种出现一定程度的分化。从周环比数据看，有色金属中仅 黄金价格出现上涨，白银和其他工业金属出现不同程度的下行，石油石化、基础化工 等细分品种价格亦出现一定回落。双焦价格回暖。TMT 中，半导体销售周期上行行业 景气度不减。下游消费品中，飞天茅台当年散装价格环比上行，支撑白酒走强。金融 地产方面，两市成交额放大，两融余额处于高位，彰显券商景气高增。 ❑ 上游周期 1）有色金属：价格出现分化，comex 黄金价格周环比上行；2）煤炭：煤炭开采 和洗选 PPI 同比增速修复，双焦价格回暖；3）石油石化：石油和天然气开采业 PPI 下行，原油价格承压 ❑ 中游周期 1）钢铁：铁矿石和螺纹钢价格周环比上行；2）基础化工：主要品种价格下行； 3）建筑材料：行业景气度仍处于相对低位；4）交通运输：海运业务走低，快递 业务增速放缓。 ❑ 中游制造 1）轻工制造：建材家居景气度下行，白卡纸价格处于低位。2）汽车： ...

2026 年地方两会和"十五五"时期主要目标任务有何亮点？ ——区域经济深度研究报告 核心观点 2026 年地方 GDP 增速加权目标值约为 5.04%，预计 2026 年全国 GDP 增速目标大概 率设定为 4.5-5%区间，表述或为"在实际工作中全力争取更好结果"。对比 2025 年， 维持经济目标不变的省份有 12 个（例如江苏、山东、四川、上海、河北、北京等）， 下调目标或下调至区间目标的省份有 18 个（例如广东、浙江、河南、湖北、福建、湖 南、重庆等），上调目标的省份仅有江西 1 省（上调至 5-5.5%区间），经济大省半数下 调目标。关于 2026 年的 GDP 增速预测，我们在 2025 年 11 月 2 日报告《直挂云帆济 沧海—2026 年宏观年度展望》指出：2026 年作为"十五五"时期开局之年，预计经济 增长仍将力争开门红，实现 4.8%的 GDP 增长，与各地两会政府工作报告设定目标规 律基本符合。 证券研究报告 | 宏观深度报告 | 中国宏观 宏观深度报告 报告日期：2026 年 02 月 08 日 一、消费方面，社零加权目标下调至 4.8%，更合理更务实，新方向重视服务消费。 二 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Insights - Bank stocks have outperformed the market, with the banking index rising by 1.70% while the CSI 300 index fell by 1.33%, indicating a shift in market sentiment towards underperforming sectors [1] - Quality city commercial banks have shown superior performance, with city commercial banks increasing by 3.27% compared to state-owned banks at 0.35% and joint-stock banks at 1.84% [1] - The banking sector is expected to enter a growth cycle in 2026, with projected revenue and net profit growth rates of 2.8% and 2.6% respectively, indicating a gradual recovery [3] - The opportunity cost of investing in bank stocks remains low, with a 10-year government bond yield at 1.80% and bank stock dividends around 4.4%, providing a 2.6 percentage point premium [3] - The report emphasizes the importance of new growth drivers, particularly recommending Nanjing Bank for its strong management and market position [3] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The banking sector ranked sixth among 31 primary industries, with a weekly increase of 1.70% [1] - The performance of various bank types showed that city commercial banks had the highest weekly increase at 3.27% [1] Individual Bank Events - Qilu Bank reported a 5.1% year-on-year increase in revenue and a 14.6% increase in net profit, aligning with market expectations [2] - Ningbo Bank's executive appointment was approved, indicating stability in management [2] Investment Outlook - The report maintains a positive outlook for bank stocks in 2026, suggesting a rebalancing of market styles and a favorable environment for bank valuations [3] - Recommendations include major state-owned banks and a focus on mid-sized banks with new growth potential, particularly Nanjing Bank, Shanghai Bank, and others [4][6]

证券研究报告 | 宏观专题研究 | 中国宏观 宏观专题研究 报告日期：2026 年 02 月 07 日 央行继续增持黄金，但短期金银仍需谨慎 ——1 月外汇储备数据传递的信号 核心观点 2026 年 1 月我国官方外汇储备 33990.78 亿美元，环比增加 412.09 亿美元，但资 产价格均对本月储备形成负向拖累。站在当前时间点，从短期维度看，金银均面 临潜在的流动性冲击与风险偏好切换带来的扰动。但从中长期维度看，我们延续 黄金强于白银的判断。在操作层面，我们更倾向于将波动率回落作为再度增配的 关键观察指标。若黄金隐含波动率（黄金 VIX）从高位回落并进入相对稳定区 间，通常意味着流动性冲击缓释、市场定价更趋有序，黄金的风险收益特征将明 显改善，届时黄金的中期投资机会更值得把握。 ❑ 1 月外储继续环比回升，但资产价格均对本月储备形成负向拖累 2026 年 1 月我国官方外汇储备 33990.78 亿美元，环比增加 412.09 亿美元，但资 产价格本月有所下行。 从结构来看，汇率对本月储备影响为负向贡献。其一，美元指数继续回落，2026 年 1 月美元指数由 2025 年 12 月底的 98.27 下行 ...

Core Insights - The bond market has shown a narrow fluctuation trend, indicating a relatively weak bullish sentiment among investors, suggesting a cautious approach to investment in the near term [1][2] - The correlation between the domestic equity market and commodity prices, particularly silver, has intensified, with silver price movements acting as a barometer for equity market trends [10][12] - The upcoming Chinese New Year holiday may reduce investors' willingness to hold positions, leading to a more defensive investment strategy [16] Group 1: Bond Market Analysis - The 10-year government bond yield has remained stable within a narrow range of 1.80% to 1.90%, reflecting a lack of strong trading direction and investor sentiment [2][21] - Recent monetary policy actions, such as the central bank's net purchase of 100 billion yuan in government bonds in January, have increased liquidity but have not significantly boosted bond market performance [23][27] - The bond market is expected to remain cautious, with potential for further movement contingent on substantial positive developments in monetary policy or market conditions [27] Group 2: Equity and Commodity Market Dynamics - The domestic equity market has shown a strong correlation with silver prices, with significant price drops in silver leading to declines in the equity market [10][12] - The silver market has experienced substantial gains, with a peak price of $115.87 per ounce on January 29, representing a 105.45% increase since late November 2025, indicating a buildup of bullish sentiment [12][16] - The volatility in silver prices during the holiday period may amplify uncertainties for investors, impacting their trading decisions [16] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Investor Behavior - Investor sentiment appears to be cautious, with a tendency to avoid aggressive positions ahead of the holiday, suggesting a preference for flexibility and defensive strategies [16] - The interplay between equity and commodity markets reflects broader market sentiment, with fluctuations in silver prices directly influencing equity market movements [10][12] - The overall market environment remains uncertain, with investors likely to adopt a "watch and wait" approach until clearer signals emerge [27]

：王禾 执业证书编号：S1230512110001 ：021-80105901 ：wanghe@stocke.com.cn 市场总览 重要推荐 ❑ 【浙商食饮 张潇倩/孙天一】新乳业（002946）公司更新：产品竞争力突出，低温龙头势能延续，打开中期利润 空间——20260204 证券研究报告 | 浙商早知道 报告日期：2026 年 02 月 06 日 浙商早知道 2026 年 02 月 06 日 重要观点 ❑ 【浙商固收信用债 李艳】债券市场专题研究：监管批文角度看二永债供给——20260204 http://www.stocke.com.cn 1/4 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 ❑ 大势：今日上证指数下跌 0.64%，沪深 300 下跌 0.6%，科创 50 下跌 1.44%，中证 1000 下跌 1.69%，创业板指下 跌 1.55%，恒生指数上涨 0.14%。 ❑ 行业：今日表现最好的行业分别是美容护理（+3.21%)、银行（+1.57%)、食品饮料（+1.31%)、商贸零售 （+0.9%)、纺织服饰（+0.74%)，表现最差的行业分别是有色金属（-4.57%)、电力设备（-3.41%)、通信（ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yum China [5] Core Insights - The company achieved revenue of $2.8 billion in Q4 2025, a year-over-year increase of 9%, exceeding expectations. For the full year 2025, revenue reached $11.8 billion, up 4% year-over-year [1] - The company plans to return $1.5 billion to shareholders in 2026, corresponding to a dividend yield of approximately 8% based on the current market capitalization [1] - The company is expected to continue expanding its store network, with over 1,900 new stores planned for 2026, increasing the proportion of franchise stores from 37% to a target of 40-50% [3] Financial Performance - In Q4 2025, the operating profit was $187 million, a 25% increase year-over-year, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was $140 million, up 22% year-over-year [1] - For the full year 2025, the operating profit was $1.29 billion, an 11% increase year-over-year, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was $929 million, a 2% increase year-over-year [1] - The company expects revenues for 2026-2028 to be $12.36 billion, $13.15 billion, and $13.97 billion respectively, with corresponding net profits of $1.003 billion, $1.096 billion, and $1.188 billion [4] Operational Efficiency - The profit margins for KFC and Pizza Hut improved in Q4 2025, with KFC at 14.0% and Pizza Hut at 9.9%, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 0.7 and 0.6 percentage points respectively [2] - The company has been focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvements, with a management expense ratio of 4.9% for the full year 2025, an improvement of 0.1 percentage points year-over-year [2]