证券研究报告 | 浙商早知道 报告日期：2025 年 08 月 28 日 浙商早知道 2025 年 08 月 28 日 ：王禾 执业证书编号：S1230512110001 ：021-80105901 ：wanghe@stocke.com.cn 市场总览 1 市场总览 重要推荐 ❑ 【浙商计算机 童非/王班/刘雯蜀/张致远】晶泰控股（02228）公司深度：AI for Science 领军，布局 AI+量子+机 器人 ——20250826 重要观点 ❑ 【浙商策略 廖静池/王大霁/高旗胜/赵闻恺】策略专题研究：降息预期遇上人工智能+，大盘成长风格走向高潮— —20250827 http://www.stocke.com.cn 1/4 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 ❑ 大势：8 月 27 日上证指数下跌 1.76%，沪深 300 下跌 1.49%，科创 50 上涨 0.13%，中证 1000 下跌 1.87%，创业 板指下跌 0.69%，恒生指数下跌 1.27%。 ❑ 行业：8 月 27 日表现最好的行业分别是通信（+1.66%)、电子（-0.4%)、有色金属（-1.1%)、公用事业（- 1.25%)、计算机 ...

川恒股份(002895) 报告日期：2025 年 08 月 27 日 业绩稳健经营顺，年中分红股东昌 ——川恒股份 2025 年中报点评 报告导读 川恒股份 8 月 26 日发布 2025 年中报，报告期内实现营业总收入 33.6 亿元，同比 增长 35.28%，实现扣非归母净利润 5.13 亿元，同比增长 46.50%；其中 Q2 单季 度实现营业总收入 18.67 亿元，同比增长 29.63%，环比增长 25.06%，实现归母净 利润 3.34 亿元，同比上升 52.48%，环比上升 65.34%，实现扣非归母净利润 3.23 亿元，同比上升 48.78%，环比上升 69.98%。公司业绩符合预期。 投资要点 ❑ 磷化工产品价格增长，公司业绩持续提升 根据公司披露数据，2025 年上半年磷化工/磷矿石开采板块营业收入分别达 31.27/2.33 亿元，占营业收入比重分别为 93.07%/6.93%。磷化工板块同比增长 37.50%，磷矿石开采板块同比增长 11.18%。其中磷酸一铵/磷酸铁/磷矿石产品营 业收入分别为7.15/3.18/2.33亿元，占营业收入比重分别为21.29%/9.46%/6.93% ...

❑ 25Q2 归母净利润 3 亿元，盈利环比改善 公司发布 2025 年中报，2025H1 营业收入约 40.8 亿元，同比-12%；归母净利润 约 5.6 亿元，同比-26%。其中 Q2 收入约 17.9 亿元，同比-32%，归母净利润 3.0 亿元，同比-34%，环比+14%。 +15%。公司取得供应链贸易收入约 25.3 亿元，同比-24%，毛利润约 2.0 亿元， 同比-64%，毛利率 7.7%，同比-8.5pct，主要因为国内需求波动导致蒙焦煤价格 同比下跌约 40%、短盘运费同比下滑约 35%，致使公司供应链贸易单吨毛利同 比下滑约 69%至 58 元/吨。三季度焦煤价格大幅反弹，我们预计公司 Q3 供应链 贸易单吨毛利有望环比提升。 ❑ 非洲第二增长曲线：卡萨项目通车量持续上行，新项目有序推进 刚果（金）卡萨道路及口岸通车量高速增长。25H1 陆港项目收入 3.1 亿元，同 比+34%，毛利 1.8 亿元，同比+40%，毛利率约 60%，同比+2.7pct。 非洲跨境物流网络加速构建。赞比亚项目中萨卡尼亚-恩多拉公路（17.26km）已 贯通，收费站建成在即；萨卡尼亚口岸扩建进展顺利，莫坎博口岸 ...

证券研究报告 | 公司点评 | 软件开发 ——用友网络点评报告 业绩拐点已现，AI 至上+海外扩张双轮驱动 投资要点 同时公司进一步优化人员结构，控制人员规模，鼓励青年人才发展，加大 AI 应 用，提升人效。截至 25H1，公司员工数量为 19,105 人，比 2025 年初减少 2,178 人。 单 Q2 来看，公司营收达 22.03 亿元，同比增长 7.15%，归母净利润达-2.09 亿 元，去年同期为-3.41 亿元，销售毛利率达 54.13%，同比增长 0.14 pct。费用率方 面，公司销售、管理、研发费用率分别为 25.00%、11.28%、25.65%，同比变化 - 5.77、-1.93、0.59pct。经营性现金流净额达 0.94 亿元，去年同期为-2.24 亿元， 实现扭负为正。 同时，公司核心产品 BIP3 半年度实现收入 13.3 亿元，同比增长 7.7%，占整体收 入的比例同比提升 4.7 个百分点。公司合同签约金额半年度同比增长 8.0%，第二 季度单季同比增长超 18%。 ❑ 订阅收入高增持续优化收入结构 公司云服务业务实现收入 27.63 亿元，占营业收入达 77.2%，上升 2 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [5] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 2.1 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 8.6%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 410 million yuan, down 13.6% year-on-year. In Q2 2025, revenue reached 820 million yuan, up 22.3% year-on-year, with a net profit of 82.8 million yuan, down 29.3% year-on-year. The growth in revenue is attributed to rapid growth in online and direct sales channels, while the profit decline is linked to channel expansion and investment in the KC brand [1][2][3] Revenue and Profit Analysis - In H1 2025, direct sales revenue increased by 10.6% to 1.41 billion yuan, while franchise revenue decreased by 10.3% to 460 million yuan. Online revenue surged by 71.9% to 210 million yuan, with a gross margin of 77.9% [2] - The gross margin for Q2 2025 was 76.7%, down 4.6 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the brand's strategy to broaden its price range. The net profit margin for Q2 2025 was 10.1%, down 7.4 percentage points year-on-year [3] Future Growth Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 4.42 billion yuan, 4.85 billion yuan, and 5.28 billion yuan in 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 10.3%, 9.9%, and 8.7%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 700 million yuan, 790 million yuan, and 880 million yuan for the same years, with corresponding year-on-year changes of -9.9%, +12.1%, and +11.9% [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" [6] Core Views - The company experienced a slight increase in revenue of 0.8% year-on-year for the first half of 2025, reaching 7.6 billion yuan, but faced a significant decline in net profit by 15.8% to 680 million yuan [1] - The company is focusing on new product development and channel expansion to drive growth, particularly through customized products for supermarkets [2][11] - The acquisition of 70% of Jiangsu Dingwei Thai Food Co., Ltd. and 100% of Dingyifeng Food (Taicang) Co., Ltd. allows the company to enter the frozen baking sector, enhancing its product offerings [5] Revenue Performance - For the first half of 2025, revenue from various product categories showed mixed results, with frozen noodle products and frozen prepared foods declining by 3.9% and 1.9% respectively, while frozen dishes increased by 9.4% [2] - In the second quarter of 2025, revenue from frozen noodle products decreased by 10.8%, while frozen dishes saw a growth of 26.1% [2] Sales Model Breakdown - In the first half of 2025, revenue from different sales channels showed a decline in traditional distributors and supermarkets, while new retail and e-commerce channels grew by 20.9% [3] - The company is actively collaborating with major supermarkets like Walmart and Metro to develop customized products, aiming to leverage scale for cost advantages [3][11] Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 20.5%, down 3.4 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 8.9%, down 1.9 percentage points [4] - In the second quarter of 2025, the gross margin further declined to 18.0%, reflecting ongoing pressure from rising raw material costs and increased promotional efforts [4] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 15.78 billion yuan, 16.94 billion yuan, and 18.16 billion yuan respectively, with expected growth rates of 4.4%, 7.3%, and 7.2% [12] - The forecasted net profit for the same period is 1.39 billion yuan, 1.56 billion yuan, and 1.73 billion yuan, indicating a recovery in profitability after a projected decline in 2025 [12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [7] Core Views - The company is a leading player in home respiratory devices and cochlear implant components, with expectations for a performance rebound in the second half of 2025 due to the easing of short-term tariff disruptions and the acceleration of new business developments in blood glucose monitoring, brain-computer interfaces, and robotics [1][5] Summary by Sections Business Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company's overseas revenue accounted for approximately 87%, with a decline in revenue from home respiratory device components by 2.8% and cochlear implant revenue by 7.5% due to tariff disruptions. The company's net profit attributable to shareholders was 114 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 32.44% [2] New Product Development - The company has seen a 54.4% year-on-year increase in revenue from other medical product components, reaching 76 million yuan in the first half of 2025. The insulin pen and CGM components are expected to contribute to the next growth point, with the insulin pen project achieving large-scale production [3] Technological Expansion - The company is expanding its technology platform into brain-computer interfaces and robotics, leveraging its expertise in electrode precision processing from cochlear implants. This expansion is expected to open long-term growth opportunities [4] Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 1.895 billion, 2.375 billion, and 2.915 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 18.85%, 25.34%, and 22.74%, respectively. Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 424 million, 543 million, and 653 million yuan for the same period, with corresponding growth rates of 16.64%, 27.97%, and 20.26% [5][11]

神州泰岳(300002) 报告日期：2025 年 08 月 27 日 产品周期过渡期，新游有望年内推广上线 ——神州泰岳点评报告 投资要点 事件：公司 8 月 26 日披露 2025 年中报 1H25，公司实现营收 26.85 亿元，同比-12.05%；实现归母净利润 5.09 亿元，同 比-19.26%；扣非净利润 4.88 亿元，同比-21.02%；其中，25Q2，营收 13.61 亿元 （YoY-12.99%，QoQ+2.85%）；归母净利润 2.71 亿元（YoY-19.40%， QoQ+13.45%）；扣非净利润 2.62 亿元（YoY-20.95%，QoQ+15.61%）。 收入端：存量游戏流水存在一定自然下滑 1H25，公司实现营收 26.85 亿元，同比-12.05%。主因核心游戏《Age of Origins》和《War and Order》进入成熟期，《Age of Origins》25Q1-Q2 用户数从 393.5 万降至 317.2 万，流水存在自然下滑。新游《Stellar Sanctuary》和《Next Agers》尚未规模化变现，叠加季节性投放调整所致，导致游戏业务营收同比下 ...

Group 1: Industrial Profit Trends - In the first seven months of 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises reached CNY 40,203.5 billion, a year-on-year decline of 1.7%, with the decline rate narrowing compared to the first half of the year[2] - In July 2025, the profit of industrial enterprises decreased by 1.5% year-on-year, a reduction of 2.8 percentage points from June[2] - The profit margin for industrial enterprises from January to July 2025 was 5.15%, unchanged from June but down 0.21 percentage points from the same period last year[2] Group 2: Price and Demand Dynamics - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for industrial products in July 2025 fell by 3.6% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month, indicating low prices that significantly drag down industrial profit growth[2] - Effective demand still has considerable room for improvement, which is crucial for sustaining profit recovery in industrial enterprises[3] Group 3: Policy Impact and Sector Performance - The "Two New" policies continue to support profit recovery, with significant profit growth in sectors like electronic and electrical machinery, which saw increases of 87.9% and 15.3% respectively in July[3] - High-tech manufacturing profits turned from a decline of 0.9% in June to a growth of 18.9% in July, contributing positively to overall industrial profit growth[3] Group 4: Inventory and Market Conditions - As of the end of July 2025, the inventory of finished products in large-scale industrial enterprises increased by 2.4% year-on-year, indicating a high inventory level that requires demand to strengthen for effective destocking[7] - The current inventory-to-sales ratio remains high, suggesting that while there is a willingness to destock, the pace of demand recovery is gradual, leading to potential fluctuations in inventory levels[7]

瑞丰银行(601528) 报告日期：2025 年 08 月 27 日 息差企稳，不良波动 ——瑞丰银行 25H1 业绩点评 投资要点 ❑ 25H1 瑞丰银行营收、归母净利润同比增速有所放缓，息差韧性较强。 ❑ 业绩概览 25H1 营收、归母净利润同比+3.9%、+5.6%，增速环比 25Q1 放缓 1.2pc、1.1pc； 25Q2 末不良率环比+1bp 至 0.98%，25Q2 末拨备覆盖率环比提升 14pc 至 340%。 ❑ 盈利增速放缓 25H1 瑞丰银行营收、归母净利润同比分别+3.9%、+5.6%，增速环比 25Q1 放缓 1.2pc、1.1pc。驱动因素来看，规模增长放缓、非息增速放缓拖累盈利表现。 ❑ 息差环比企稳 瑞丰银行 25H1 息差环比 25Q1 持平于 1.46%，息差韧性较强，主要得益于存款成 本改善，有效对冲资产端收益率下行影响。 （1）资产端。测算 25Q2 资产端收益率环比下降 9bp 至 3.19%，主要源于贷款利 率行业性下行。25H1瑞丰银行贷款收益率较24H2下降29bp，其中对公贷款（不 含票据贴现）、零售贷款分别下降 32bp、35bp。 （2）负债端。测算 25 ...