1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The net financing of large - scale banks is a synchronous and slightly leading indicator of inter - bank liquidity. Affected by the tax period, the net financing amount of large - scale banks reached the "tight - loose watershed" of 3 trillion yuan. Currently, seasonal disturbance factors are magnified under the low core excess reserves, and the real test of narrow - sense liquidity may come in the first quarter of 2026 [1][3][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1大行净融出金额"险守"3万亿 - Qualitatively, due to the central bank's primary dealer system in the open - market, there is a capital transmission chain in the inter - bank market. The net financing of large - scale banks is the main core of inter - bank market financing. Quantitatively, on November 21, the net financing balance of large - scale banks was about 4.1 trillion yuan, accounting for about 35.6% of the inter - bank market's bond balance to be repurchased [2][10]. - From November 17 to November 21, the net financing amount of large - scale banks first decreased and then increased, "barely holding" 3 trillion yuan. The capital market was first tight and then loose, and the repurchase rate first rose and then fell. After the tax period ended, it rebounded to 3.66 trillion yuan on November 21, and DR001 reached a maximum of 1.53% [3][11]. - The current seasonal disturbance factors are magnified under the low core excess reserves, but the market's expectation of liquidity remains relatively stable. The narrow - sense liquidity may face a real test in the first quarter of 2026 [3][11]. 3.2狭义流动性 3.2.1央行操作：税期加大逆回购净投放 - Short - term liquidity: From November 17 to November 21, the central bank's net reverse - repurchase injection was 554 billion yuan. As of November 21, the central bank's reverse - repurchase balance was 1676 billion yuan, at a relatively high level [12]. - Medium - term liquidity: In November, the maturity amount of repurchase - style reverse - repurchase was 1000 billion yuan, and MLF matured at 900 billion yuan. The central bank achieved a net injection of 500 billion yuan in repurchase - style reverse - repurchase [13]. 3.2.2机构融入融出情况：大行净融出先下后上 - Fund supply: On November 21, the net financing of large - scale banks was 3.7 trillion yuan, an increase of about 295.5 billion yuan compared with November 14. The net financing balance of money market funds decreased by about 191.2 billion yuan, and joint - stock banks' net borrowing decreased by about 165 billion yuan [16]. - Fund demand: On November 21, the balance of bonds to be repurchased in the inter - bank market was about 11.5 trillion yuan, an increase of 209 billion yuan compared with November 14. The market leverage ratio rose by 0.11 percentage points, and the leverage ratio of non - legal person products rose by 0.42 percentage points [23]. 3.2.3回购市场成交情况：量价皆稳 - Quantity and price of funds: In the past week, the volume and price of the inter - bank pledged - repurchase market were stable. The median daily trading volume decreased by 24.4 billion yuan, the median of R001 rose by 2bp, and the liquidity friction increased slightly [28]. - Fund sentiment index: The capital market was first tight and then loose. The sentiment index was generally above 50 during the tax period and began to decline after November 20 [29]. 3.2.4利率互换：基本持平 - FR007 IRS 1 - year interest rate and SHIBOR 3 - month IRS 1 - year interest rate were basically flat compared with last week. The median of FR007 IRS 1 - year was 1.54%, and the median of SHIBOR 3 - month IRS 1 - year was 1.59% [33]. 3.3政府债：未来一周政府债净缴款压力下降 3.3.1下周政府债净缴款 - In the past week, the net payment of government bonds was 362.9 billion yuan. In the next week, it is expected to be 233.7 billion yuan, with treasury bonds having a net repayment of 56.1 billion yuan and local bonds having a net payment of 289.8 billion yuan. The net payment pressure will be evenly distributed, and there will be a net repayment next Tuesday [34]. 3.3.2当前政府债发行进度 - As of November 14, the net financing progress of treasury bonds was 93.0%, and the issuance progress of new local bonds was 95.3%. The issuance of refinancing special bonds has completed the annual task [35]. 3.4同业存单：收益率窄幅震荡 3.4.1绝对收益率 - On November 21, most of the SHIBOR quotes and the yields of inter - bank certificates of deposit of commercial banks with AAA ratings remained unchanged, except for overnight, 7 - day, and 1 - month terms which decreased [40]. 3.4.2发行和存量情况 - From November 17 to November 21, the issuance volume of inter - bank certificates of deposit decreased by 176.4 billion yuan. In terms of issuance terms, the proportions of 1 - month and 1 - year terms increased, while those of 3 - month, 6 - month, and 9 - month terms decreased [42]. 3.4.3相对估值 - On November 21, the spreads between the 1 - year AAA - rated inter - bank certificate of deposit yield and R007, and between the 10 - year treasury bond yield and the 1 - year AAA - rated inter - bank certificate of deposit yield were 14bp and 18bp respectively, at certain quantile levels since 2020 [47][48].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [5][9]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 20.9 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing an 8% year-on-year increase, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 12% to 1.97 billion yuan. Operating cash flow showed significant improvement, increasing by 161% to 2.97 billion yuan [1]. - The humanoid robot business is expected to experience explosive growth, with a projected demand exceeding 300 billion yuan by 2030 in the manufacturing and home service sectors. Each robot requires multiple actuators, which positions the company favorably to capture market share due to its technological capabilities [2]. - The automotive parts business is expanding rapidly, with successful collaborations with major domestic and international car manufacturers. The company has achieved significant milestones in product development and international expansion, including the production of closed-loop air suspension systems [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 7.99 billion yuan, a 12% increase year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 670 million yuan, down 14% from the previous year [1]. - The forecast for revenue from 2025 to 2027 is projected to be 30.1 billion, 36.8 billion, and 45 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 13%, 22%, and 22% respectively. The net profit is expected to be 2.95 billion, 3.72 billion, and 4.63 billion yuan, with a compound annual growth rate of 16% from 2024 to 2027 [5][11]. Business Segments - The humanoid robot business is positioned for significant growth due to the increasing demand for actuators, which are essential components in robotics. The company has a strong foundation in motor development and precision machining, enhancing its competitive edge [2]. - The automotive parts segment is seeing rapid development, with successful partnerships with companies like Huawei, Xiaomi, and BMW. The company has also expanded its product offerings and is increasing production capacity for various automotive components [3][4]. International Expansion - The company is accelerating its internationalization efforts, with projects in North America, Europe, and Southeast Asia. The completion of these production bases is expected to further enhance overseas business growth [4].

Core Insights - The transition from "stocks rise, bonds fall" to "stocks fall, bonds do not rise" reflects the disparity in asset trends, indicating a lack of strong bullish drivers in the bond market while the equity market focuses on restoring investor confidence [1][3][11] - The bond market has seen a rebound from low levels, but the momentum for further increases is weak due to limited expectations for monetary policy easing and a generally low investor sentiment after a year of significant volatility [1][3][14] - The equity market, despite the Shanghai Composite Index reaching new highs, lacks strong trading logic to support its rise, leading to pressure from high absolute index levels and recent volatility in overseas markets [1][3][14] Understanding U.S. Rate Cut Expectations - The Federal Reserve faces a dilemma between employment and inflation, with mixed signals from the labor market suggesting that a significant recession is not imminent, which may not justify a rate cut in December [2][15][16] - The absence of key labor data due to government shutdowns means the Fed may adopt a cautious stance, waiting for clearer signals before making decisions on rate cuts [2][18][22] - The fluctuation in rate cut expectations has impacted global asset pricing, with the potential for volatility in the rate cut timeline, although the overall direction towards easing remains unchanged [2][22] Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market currently lacks a clear bullish trading narrative, making it susceptible to profit-taking after minor gains, with the potential for a breakout dependent on consistent bullish signals from policy or market trends [3][26] - Investor sentiment in the equity market is low due to ongoing declines, emphasizing the need to restore confidence to avoid a downward spiral in market perceptions [3][26]

Core Insights - The report indicates that the A-share market has been affected by the weakened expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, leading to a significant decline in global stock markets, including A-shares [1][55] - It is suggested that the current market adjustment is necessary, and investors should not panic sell but rather wait for the market to stabilize, particularly focusing on the brokerage sector as a signal for potential recovery [1][5][57] - The report anticipates that the systemic "slow bull" market is not over and may enter a "second phase" after the current adjustments [1][4][56] Market Overview - Major indices in the A-share market experienced declines due to global market fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index, Shanghai 50, and CSI 300 dropping by 3.90%, 2.72%, and 3.77% respectively [12][55] - The growth indices, such as the CSI 500 and CSI 1000, saw larger declines of 5.78% and 5.80%, while the ChiNext Index and STAR 50 fell by 6.15% and 5.54% respectively [12][55] - The Hong Kong market mirrored the A-share performance, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index declining by 5.09% and 7.18% [12][55] Sector Analysis - All major sectors in the market experienced declines, with the banking and food & beverage sectors showing relative resilience, falling only by 0.87% and 1.36% respectively [14][55] - Sectors that had previously performed well, such as electric new energy and basic chemicals, saw significant declines of 9.41% and 8.24% [14][55] - The report highlights that investors should differentiate between high and low-performing stocks, advising against holding onto recently broken high-position stocks while retaining positions in relatively low-position sectors like brokerage, consumption, and real estate [5][57] Market Sentiment - The average daily trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets decreased to 1.85 trillion yuan, indicating a drop in market activity [23][55] - The main stock index futures contracts showed a negative basis, suggesting bearish sentiment among investors [23][55] Fund Flow - The margin trading balance slightly decreased to 2.48 trillion yuan, with a financing buy ratio of 10.11% [29][55] - The report notes that the medical ETF saw the highest net inflow of 2.8 billion yuan, while the banking ETF experienced the largest outflow of 13.9 billion yuan [29][55] Valuation Insights - The report indicates that the valuation levels of major indices have receded, with the current PE-TTM for the Shanghai Composite Index at 16.1, placing it at the 84.13 percentile [47][55] - The dynamic valuation model suggests that the current market indices are within a normal range, indicating potential for future recovery [50][55]

Group 1 - The report highlights the "engineer dividend" period for China's innovative drug industry, indicating that local innovations have gained full recognition from multinational corporations (MNCs) [4][5][53] - The report emphasizes the strong performance of various Chinese biotech stocks, with notable price increases observed in companies like Rongchang Biopharmaceutical (+199%) and Mawei Biopharmaceutical (+124%) in the A-share market [4][16] - The report identifies a significant increase in the number of first-in-class (FIC) drugs entering clinical trials in China, from only 9 in 2015 to an expected 120 in 2024, with China's global share of FIC drugs exceeding 30% [4][22] Group 2 - The report discusses the leading position of Chinese companies in the antibody-drug conjugate (ADC) sector, with over 50% global pipeline share in key targets such as HER2 and TROP2 [25][32] - It notes that two Chinese ADC drugs have entered the top ten global upfront payment rankings, indicating strong valuation potential for local innovations [30][31] - The report highlights the anticipated growth in bispecific antibodies (bsAbs), with Chinese companies dominating the top five global upfront payments for related assets [37][41] Group 3 - The report recommends several companies with significant global single product potential, including Kolon Biotech and Innovent Biologics, while also highlighting others like 3SBio and BeiGene as companies to watch [6][52] - It emphasizes the potential for substantial global pricing power for assets, particularly for companies like Rongchang Biopharmaceutical and Zai Lab, which are expected to see continued clinical data readouts [6][52] - The report suggests that companies like Innovent Biologics and Rongchang Biopharmaceutical are likely to turn profitable, with expectations of improved financial performance in the coming years [6][52]

Group 1: Manufacturing Weight Importance - The issue of "manufacturing weight" has gained significant attention from the central government since the 19th National Congress, with key deployments in the 2020 "14th Five-Year Plan" and subsequent meetings[1] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" suggests maintaining a reasonable manufacturing weight, aiming for a long-term target of 24.5% of GDP, as recommended by UNIDO[1][2] - China's manufacturing value added as a percentage of GDP has decreased from a peak of 32% in 2006 to 25% in 2024, indicating a critical phase for maintaining this ratio[2][14] Group 2: Economic Implications - A manufacturing weight below 20% is a critical threshold that can lead to a downward trend, weakening economic resilience and development potential[15] - The manufacturing sector is essential for breaking through the middle-income trap and is a key driver of national security[4][15] - The investment share in manufacturing has rebounded from 26% in 2020 to 33% by October 2025, highlighting the cyclical relationship between manufacturing value added and investment[2][5] Group 3: International Comparisons - International experience shows a "U-shaped" trend in manufacturing weight, with developed countries maintaining a ratio above 20% to ensure economic stability[13][15] - Countries like Germany and Japan have stabilized their manufacturing weight around 20%, leveraging high-end manufacturing to maintain economic resilience[13][28] - In contrast, Brazil and Argentina have seen their manufacturing weights drop below 20%, leading to economic challenges and a low-value-added industrial structure[38]

证券研究报告 | 浙商早知道 报告日期：2025 年 11 月 21 日 浙商早知道 http://www.stocke.com.cn 1/3 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2025 年 11 月 21 日 ：张延兵 执业证书编号：S1230511010020 ：021-80106048 ：zhangyanbing@stocke.com.cn 市场总览 重要观点 【浙商固收 覃汉/陈婷婷】债券市场专题研究：权益长牛如何重塑转债格局？——20251120 大势：周四上证指数下跌 0.40%，沪深 300 下跌 0.51%，科创 50 下跌 1.24%，中证 1000 下跌 0.63%，创业板指下 跌 1.1%，恒生指数上涨 0.02%。 行业：周四表现最好的行业分别是建筑材料（+1.40%)、综合（+0.87%)、银行（+0.86%)、通信（+0.51%)、房地 产（+0.33%)，表现最差的行业分别是美容护理（-2.39%)、煤炭（-2.10%)、电力设备（-1.96%)、石油石化（-1.52%)、 商贸零售（-1.42%)。 资金：周四沪深总成交额为 17082 亿元，南下资金净流入 159.9 亿港元 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [3] Core Views - The company is expected to see a performance turnaround, with a promising start to the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1] - Revenue growth is anticipated to recover gradually, with brand products expected to show stable growth [6] - The company has a good channel inventory, and its core products are less affected by price reductions from centralized procurement [6] Financial Summary - Projected revenue for 2024 is 6,515.16 million, with a slight decrease of 3.23% compared to the previous year, followed by a growth of 2.11% in 2025 and 10.40% in 2026 [2] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 622.42 million in 2024, increasing by 5.21% year-on-year, with further growth of 15.39% in 2025 and 14.65% in 2026 [2] - Earnings per share (EPS) is projected to rise from 0.25 in 2024 to 0.37 in 2027 [2] Performance Indicators - The weighted ROE is expected to improve, reaching 8.05% by the end of Q3 2025, up by 0.52 percentage points year-on-year [6] - The company’s gross margin is projected to increase from 53.14% in 2024 to 56.24% in 2027 [7] - The net profit margin is expected to rise from 10.10% in 2024 to 11.88% in 2027 [7] Valuation Metrics - The projected P/E ratios are 18.84 for 2024, decreasing to 12.47 by 2027 [2] - The projected P/B ratios are expected to decline from 1.76 in 2024 to 1.51 in 2027 [7] - The EV/EBITDA ratio is projected to decrease from 10.10 in 2024 to 7.22 in 2027 [7]

A+H 权益组合业绩评价框架 ——主动量化研究系列 核心观点 本报告中，我们对 A+H 跨市场权益组合业绩评价体系进行了构建，并给出了具体测 算流程。从结果看，可对组合收益来源及能力圈进行较好的评价。 ❑ A+H 组合评价：需解决哪些问题 组合评价体系包括业绩和风险两部分，一般我们需要其满足如下要求：精细化， 全面，灵敏，稳健。在这个过程中，需考虑不同市场结构对行业、风格的影响， 同时也需考虑汇率的波动。 ❑ 跨市场权益组合评价体系 对于 A+H 跨市场组合评价体系，基于现有成熟的风险维度，首先分别搭建两个 市场的模型：包含敞口和收益。对标基准，按市场进行权重分配，纳入汇率收 益。得到单独市场的敞口和收益拆分结果，然后进行汇总。 相关报告 1 《物价回归，决战 2026》 2025.11.18 2 《主线切换：涨价逻辑首选化 工》 2025.11.16 3 《A 股新常态：主线切换，情 绪不减》 2025.11.09 ❑ 收益拆分：汇率、市场、行业、风格、选股 以模拟组合为例，对其进行分析。整体看，组合超配 materials，低配 banks；偏 小市值、高换手、高盈利、动量。港股仓位超额收益为正，A 股为 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is positive, indicating a favorable outlook for the carbon market expansion and its impact on the steel, cement, and aluminum smelting sectors [30][31]. Core Insights - The report highlights the issuance of the allocation plan for carbon emission rights in the steel, cement, and aluminum smelting industries, marking a significant step towards substantial carbon market expansion [1][11]. - The allocation plan emphasizes a stable transition with increased carryover allowances and a narrowed deviation range for carbon emission intensity, which is expected to enhance long-term emission reduction incentives while maintaining market stability [2][17]. - The carbon market is entering a new phase of systematic expansion and institutional deepening, with expectations for broader coverage and more precise regulation in the future [3][23]. Summary by Sections 1. Policy Overview - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment issued the allocation plan for carbon emissions in the steel, cement, and aluminum smelting industries, which is a concrete implementation of earlier expansion policies [11][12]. - The plan focuses on direct emissions from fossil fuel combustion and industrial processes, excluding indirect emissions from electricity and heat consumption [12][13]. 2. Policy Impact - The continuity of the policy is strong, with a clear emphasis on using market mechanisms to control greenhouse gas emissions and promote green transformation in industries [21][22]. - The expansion of the carbon market is expected to follow a principle of gradual inclusion, with new industries being added as they mature [23][24]. - Near the end of the year, carbon prices are showing signs of support, although the impact of the new allocation plan on carbon prices is expected to be limited [26][27].