Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" (maintained) [5] Core Viewpoints - The logic of recovery in the construction machinery industry is strengthening, with domestic demand gradually improving and the expectation of a recovery cycle starting [3][4] - In November, the total sales of excavators increased by 17.9% year-on-year, marking eight consecutive months of positive growth [3] - The domestic sales of excavators reached 9,020 units in November, up 20.5% year-on-year, indicating a potential turning point in domestic demand [3][4] Summary by Relevant Sections Monthly Performance - In November, the operating hours of Komatsu excavators in China were 105.4 hours, a year-on-year increase of 4.4%, marking four consecutive months of positive growth [2] - The operating hours in Japan, Europe, North America, and Indonesia showed mixed results, with Japan at 46.1 hours (up 1.0%), Europe at 73.8 hours (up 3.1%), North America at 59.9 hours (down 9.0%), and Indonesia at 210.6 hours (up 0.4%) [2][12] Sales Data - The overall sales of excavators in November reached 17,590 units, with domestic sales at 9,020 units and export sales at 8,570 units, reflecting a positive trend in both domestic and international markets [3] - Year-to-date sales from January to November totaled 181,762 units, with domestic sales at 91,231 units (up 10.8%) and exports at 90,531 units (down 5.7%) [3] Recovery Logic - The recovery in the construction machinery industry is expected to follow a three-step process: improvement in export market share, enhancement of domestic demand, and initiation of the replacement cycle [4] - The Chinese construction machinery industry is positioned as a global competitive sector, with leading manufacturers expected to increase their market share overseas [4] Domestic Demand and Policy Support - The implementation of more proactive macro policies is anticipated to gradually improve domestic demand, supported by recent monetary and fiscal measures [4] - The expected replacement cycle for excavators is projected to begin in 2024, following a historical pattern of approximately 8-10 years for equipment updates [4] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on industry leaders such as SANY Heavy Industry, XCMG, Shantui, and others, highlighting their potential for growth in the recovering market [4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [5] Core Insights - The central economic work conference emphasized the need for proactive macro policies to stabilize the real estate market and stock market, indicating a strong commitment to reversing the downward trend in the real estate sector [2][4] - The report suggests that the government will implement more aggressive fiscal policies, including increasing the fiscal deficit ratio and issuing special long-term bonds to support real estate policies, with an estimated funding requirement exceeding 10 trillion yuan [3][4] - The report highlights the importance of a comprehensive policy approach to stabilize the real estate market, which includes not only real estate policies but also measures to support employment and boost consumption [4][5] Summary by Sections Investment Outlook - The report maintains a bullish outlook on real estate stocks, suggesting that as uncertainties around policy diminish, there is potential for valuation recovery [5][7] - Specific companies to watch include Vanke A, JinDi Group, New Town Holdings, Longfor Group, and several leading real estate firms such as Poly Developments and China Overseas Land & Investment [7] Policy Framework - The report outlines a framework for 2025 that includes stabilizing asset prices through controlled land supply and promoting urban renewal projects, which are expected to drive investment in real estate and infrastructure [4][19] - The emphasis on urban renewal and infrastructure development is seen as a critical strategy to address supply-demand imbalances and stimulate economic growth [19][21] Fiscal and Monetary Policy - The report indicates that the government will adopt a more proactive fiscal policy, including increasing the issuance of special bonds and optimizing fiscal expenditure to support the real estate sector [3][21] - It also mentions the need for a moderately loose monetary policy to ensure liquidity aligns with economic growth expectations [21][25]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [4] Core Views - The completion of the acquisition of 100% equity in Shandong Heavy Machinery opens up growth opportunities for the excavator business [1] - The company aims to leverage its existing bulldozer sales channels and the advantages of the Shandong Heavy Industry Group platform to rapidly expand its excavator market share [1] - The company has a strong focus on cost reduction and efficiency improvement, which is expected to enhance profitability [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Acquisition Completion - The company announced the completion of the acquisition of 100% equity in Shandong Heavy Machinery, with 95% of the purchase price, amounting to 1.749 billion yuan, already paid [1] - The remaining 5% will be paid after the audit report is issued [1] Excavator Business Potential - The market share of Shandong Heavy Machinery's excavators was 4.03% from January to September 2024 [1] - The company plans to resolve competition issues with other subsidiaries within five years [1] - The unique advantages of the excavators include a 10%-15% fuel saving at the same efficiency and a 15% efficiency increase at the same fuel consumption [1] Bulldozer Market Position - The company ranks third globally in bulldozer sales, with a domestic market share exceeding 70% in 2023 [1] - The export value of tracked bulldozers reached 700 million USD, a 10% increase year-on-year, while the export of high-horsepower bulldozers (over 320 horsepower) increased by 34% [1] Cost Control Measures - The company achieved a cost reduction of 154 million yuan in 2023 through various measures, including group procurement and process improvements [1] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The projected net profits for 2024-2026 are 1.025 billion, 1.451 billion, and 1.895 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 34%, 42%, and 31% [2] - The price-to-earnings ratio (PE) for the closing price on December 12 is 14, 10, and 8 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, which is below the industry average [1][2]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - In November 2024, excavator sales reached 17,590 units, a year-on-year increase of 17.9%, with domestic sales at 9,020 units (up 20.5%) and export sales at 8,570 units (up 15.2%) [2][3] - The overall sales of excavators from January to November 2024 totaled 181,762 units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.9%, with domestic sales increasing by 10.8% and exports decreasing by 5.7% [2][3] - The logic of recovery in the engineering machinery sector is strengthening, with expectations for improved domestic demand and a potential upturn in the replacement cycle [2][3] Summary by Sections Excavator Sales - November excavator sales showed a continuous positive growth trend for eight months, driven by a new round of replacement cycles and the gradual effects of real estate policy easing [2][3] - The sales of electric loaders in November surged by 85%, with a penetration rate of 12% [2][3] Domestic and Global Market Dynamics - The domestic engineering machinery cycle is expected to bottom out and initiate a new replacement cycle, supported by proactive macro policies and fiscal measures [3] - The global market is witnessing a rise in market share for Chinese engineering machinery manufacturers, with leading firms expected to continue gaining ground internationally [2][3] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on industry leaders such as Sany Heavy Industry, XCMG, Shantui, and others, highlighting their potential for growth [3][4]

| --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------| | 农林牧渔 | 报告日期： 2024 年 12 月 11 日 | | | | | 北美旧作消费出口强劲，南美新作播种进度略快 | | | —— 12 月 USDA 供需报告分析 | | 投资要点 ❑ 美玉米消费和出口强劲，海外整体库销比降至低位 本月 USDA 供需报告中，对 2024/25 年度全球（除中国外）玉米的预计产量下调 了 151 万吨，至 9.26 亿吨，同比上一年度减少 1.6%。其中，美国收割完成，产 量维持 3.85 亿吨不变，但 9-11 月乙醇的玉米消费是五年以来最高的；巴西新季玉 米正在播种，预估产量尚未作出调整，截至 12 月 8 日，玉米播种率为 72.2%，上 周公布值为 65.1%，去年同期值 65.9%；乌克兰产量预估上调 30 万吨。贸易方面， 美国和加拿大 2024/25 年度玉米出口量上调，但欧盟下调；孟加拉国、欧盟、伊 朗和墨西哥的玉米进口量上调。最终，全球（ ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive (Maintain)" [7] Core Insights - Google's announcement of a powerful quantum chip named "Willow" significantly enhances computing power, completing tasks in 5 minutes that would take the fastest current computers 10^25 years [2][18] - China leads in quantum computing and communication, holding 3,217 patents compared to the USA's 2,740, with the company Origin Quantum at the forefront [3][42] - Quantum communication is poised for widespread adoption due to its ability to ensure information security, as it is the only method proven to be unconditionally secure [4][20] Summary by Sections 1. Google's Development of Quantum Chip - Google announced the development of a quantum chip that can perform tasks in 5 minutes that would take current supercomputers 10^25 years [18] 2. Quantum Communication Ensuring Security - Quantum communication utilizes quantum mechanics to manipulate quantum states, effectively addressing information security issues [20] - Quantum key distribution (QKD) is a key technology that ensures secure communication by detecting eavesdropping through quantum state changes [24] 3. Intensifying Quantum Competition, China Leading - As of October 2023, 29 countries have developed quantum information strategies, with total investments exceeding $28 billion [42] - China has surpassed the USA in quantum computing patents, with Origin Quantum leading in the number of public patents [42] 4. Initial Commercialization of Quantum Communication - Quantum communication has been implemented in high-security fields such as defense and finance, with companies like Guandun Quantum leading in the commercialization of quantum security applications [56] 5. Related Companies - Key companies in the quantum sector include Guandun Quantum, Keda Guokai, Fudan Fuhua, Zhejiang Dongfang, and others [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leader in the photovoltaic silver paste market, with comprehensive technology solutions and a strong focus on research and development to maintain its competitive edge [1][3]. - The copper paste technology is highlighted as a key area of focus, with significant potential for cost reduction in photovoltaic cells by replacing silver with copper [1]. - The company has a rich technical reserve in metallization solutions, particularly in TOPCon, IBC, and HJT technologies, which are expected to drive future growth [1]. Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - The report emphasizes the importance of metallization cost reduction in photovoltaic cells, with various technologies like silver-coated copper and copper plating being explored [1]. - The copper paste technology faces challenges such as oxidation and diffusion, but the company is actively addressing these issues through partnerships and research [1]. Technical Leadership - The company has established itself as a leader in high-performance electronic materials, with a focus on N-type TOPCon, HJT, and IBC technologies [1]. - The copper paste technology is expected to achieve industrialization breakthroughs first in HJT cells due to their unique structure, which simplifies the manufacturing process [1]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The report maintains profit forecasts for 2024-2026, projecting net profits of 515 million, 630 million, and 724 million yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 3.66, 4.48, and 5.15 yuan per share [2][3]. - The company is expected to maintain a strong P/E ratio, projected at 13, 11, and 9 for the years 2024-2026 [2].

Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [8] Core Views - The company proposes a share consolidation and change in trading unit to enhance attractiveness, with the total issued share capital reducing from RMB 1760.08 billion to RMB 176.01 billion, and the trading unit changing from 2000 existing H shares to 500 consolidated and reduced H shares, expected to take effect on February 20, 2025 [3] - The company is leveraging its resource advantages to tap into the low-altitude economy, which is expected to grow significantly, with the low-altitude economy scale in China reaching RMB 5060 billion in 2023, a 33.8% YoY increase, and projected to exceed RMB 1 trillion by 2026 [4] - The company's "One Body, Two Wings" strategy is driving steady growth, with the depreciation of tower assets acquired in 2015 expected to reach an inflection point in 2026, significantly reducing depreciation and amortization expenses and contributing to profit growth [5] - The company is expected to achieve revenues of RMB 983 billion, RMB 1025 billion, and RMB 1068 billion in 2024-2026, with YoY growth rates of 4.5%, 4.3%, and 4.3%, respectively, and net profits attributable to the parent company of RMB 108 billion, RMB 125 billion, and RMB 195 billion, with YoY growth rates of 11.1%, 15.7%, and 55.6%, respectively [6] Financial Forecasts - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 94,009 million in 2023 to RMB 106,843 million in 2026, with a CAGR of 4.3% [10] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from RMB 9,750 million in 2023 to RMB 19,501 million in 2026, with a CAGR of 26.1% [10] - EPS is forecasted to rise from RMB 0.06 in 2023 to RMB 0.11 in 2026 [10] - The company's P/E ratio is expected to decrease from 15.93x in 2024 to 8.85x in 2026, indicating improving valuation attractiveness [10] Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on the low-altitude economy, leveraging its extensive tower resources, with 2.081 million tower sites as of September 2024, and building a comprehensive low-altitude service network, including flight facility networks, low-altitude intelligent networks, and low-altitude service networks [4] - The "One Body, Two Wings" strategy continues to drive growth, with the company expanding its operator business, smart connectivity business, and energy business, particularly in areas like digital governance and energy solutions [5] Industry Outlook - The low-altitude economy is poised for significant growth, driven by policy and technological advancements, with the industry expected to exceed RMB 1 trillion by 2026, encompassing low-altitude infrastructure, manufacturing, operations, and flight support [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Qingdao Beer Co., Ltd. is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - Qingdao Beer, as a leading beer company in China, is expected to see revenue exceed expectations due to multiple catalysts including policy-driven consumption recovery, inventory destocking in 2024, potential management changes, and the recovery of the dining sector [2][3] - The recovery of the dining chain is highly certain, with expectations for volume and price to rise from a low base in 2025 [2] - The company is anticipated to benefit from a management change, which may bring more positive initiatives and goals [3] Summary by Sections Sales and Price Drivers - Volume: The recovery of the dining chain driven by consumption vouchers is expected to lead to sales exceeding expectations, particularly in the 6-10 RMB price range [3] - Price: The upgrade in the 6-10 RMB price range is expected to continue, with room for further price increases as Qingdao Beer has positioned its classic products at the 8 RMB price point [3] Financial Forecasts - Revenue growth rates are projected at 6.05% for 2024, 3.18% for 2025, and 3.22% for 2026 [4] - Net profit growth rates are expected to be 1.27% for 2024, 11.26% for 2025, and 9.77% for 2026 [4] - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 3.17, 3.52, and 3.87 RMB for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [4] Valuation and Price Target - The target valuation for Qingdao Beer H shares is based on a 70% discount to the A-share valuation of 25x, with the current discount at approximately 63.7%, indicating high elasticity [4] - The report maintains that the current valuation offers good value for investment [4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic [1] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the revaluation of strategic mineral resources in China, identifying 15 major metal varieties where China holds significant advantages in both resource reserves and production capacity [3] - China has absolute advantages in rare earths, tungsten, and antimony, while it is relatively weaker in energy metals like lithium and nickel [3] - The report suggests that if the trend of de-globalization intensifies by 2025, China may impose export restrictions on these strategic resources, enhancing their strategic value and potentially increasing equity valuations in the sector [3] Summary by Category Strategic Mineral Resources Overview - The report identifies that electrolytic aluminum, tungsten, rare earths, antimony, tin, lead, and zinc each account for over 20% of China's resource reserves, marking them as advantageous varieties [3] - In terms of production, China also holds a dominant position in the aforementioned varieties [3] Precious Metals - Gold: China's 2023 estimated production is 370 tons, approximately 12.33% of global output; reserves are 3000 tons, about 5.08% of global reserves [10] - Silver: China's 2023 estimated production is 3400 tons, approximately 13.08% of global output; reserves are 72000 tons, about 11.8% of global reserves [10] - Rare Earths: China's 2023 estimated production is 240000 tons, approximately 68.57% of global output; reserves are 44000000 tons, about 40% of global reserves [10] Industrial Metals - Copper: China's 2023 estimated mine production is 170000 tons, about 7.73% of global output; smelting production is 1200000 tons, about 44.44% of global output; reserves are 41000000 tons, about 4.1% of global reserves [14] - Aluminum: China's 2023 estimated bauxite production is 93000000 tons, about 23.25% of global output; alumina capacity is 82000000 tons, about 58.57% of global capacity; electrolytic aluminum production is 41000000 tons, about 58.57% of global output [14] Energy Metals - Lithium: China's 2023 estimated production is 33000 tons, about 18.33% of global output; reserves are 300000 tons, about 10.71% of global reserves [21] - Nickel: China's 2023 estimated production is 110000 tons, about 3.06% of global output; reserves are 4200000 tons, about 3.23% of global reserves [21] Minor Metals - Tungsten: China's 2023 estimated production is 63000 tons, about 80.77% of global output; reserves are 230000 tons, about 52.27% of global reserves [24] - Antimony: China's 2023 estimated production is 40000 tons, about 48.19% of global output; reserves are 64000 tons, about 32% of global reserves [24] Black and Grey Metals - Iron Ore: China's 2023 estimated production is 280 million tons, about 11.2% of global output; reserves are 2 billion tons, about 10.53% of global reserves [33] - Titanium Sponge: China's 2023 estimated production is 22000 tons, about 66.67% of global output; capacity is 26000 tons, about 63.41% of global capacity [33]