证券研究报告：医药生物 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 3 月 21 日 股票投资评级 买入|首次覆盖 个股表现 2024-03 2024-06 2024-08 2024-10 2025-01 2025-03 -33% -28% -23% -18% -13% -8% -3% 2% 7% 盟科药业 医药生物 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 公司基本情况 l 盈利预测与投资建议： | 最新收盘价（元） | 5.96 | | --- | --- | | 总股本/流通股本（亿股）6.55 | / 3.66 | | 总市值/流通市值（亿元）39 | / 22 | | 52 周内最高/最低价 | 6.58 / 3.69 | | 资产负债率(%) | 48.3% | | 市盈率 | -8.90 | | 第一大股东 | Genie Pharma | 研究所 分析师:蔡明子 SAC 登记编号:S1340523110001 Email:caimingzi@cnpsec.com 分析师:陈成 SAC 登记编号:S1340524020001 Email:chencheng@cnpsec.com 盟科药业(688373) 康替唑胺稳健 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [2][14]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 22.406 billion yuan for 2024, an increase of 6.93% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 5.07% to 638 million yuan. The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 623 million yuan, resulting in a dividend payout ratio of 97.72% and a dividend yield of 9.7% [5][6]. Company Performance - The company achieved a new order intake of approximately 27.049 billion yuan in the construction decoration business for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.68%. The new orders for curtain wall and photovoltaic building business were about 17.205 billion yuan, up by 0.17%, while the interior decoration and design business saw new orders of 9.844 billion yuan, an increase of 13.62% [6]. - The overseas business (including Hong Kong and Macau) generated new orders of 7.63 billion yuan, a significant increase of 57% year-on-year, with curtain wall orders around 3.7 billion yuan and interior orders of 3.88 billion yuan, both showing strong growth [6]. Financial Metrics - The company’s gross margin for 2024 was 16.04%, a decrease of 1.13 percentage points. The operating cash flow for 2024 was 1.626 billion yuan, an increase of 770 million yuan year-on-year, with a cash collection ratio of 106%, up by 6 percentage points [7]. - The company forecasts revenues of 24.2 billion yuan and 26.2 billion yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 8.1% and 8.0%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 689 million yuan and 760 million yuan for the same years, reflecting growth rates of 7.7% and 10.2% [7][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral investment rating for the industry, indicating expectations of performance within a range of -10% to 10% relative to the benchmark index [16]. Core Views - The Federal Reserve has decided to keep interest rates unchanged at 4.25%-4.50%, aligning with market expectations, while also announcing a slowdown in the pace of balance sheet reduction, signaling a dovish stance [10][11]. - The most significant adjustment is the reduction of the monthly redemption cap for Treasury securities from $25 billion to $5 billion starting in April, while the cap for mortgage-backed securities (MBS) remains at $35 billion [10][11]. - Economic forecasts have been adjusted, with GDP growth expectations lowered to 1.7% and inflation expectations raised to 2.7%, while the unemployment rate is slightly increased to 4.4% [11][12]. - Despite concerns about a potential recession, the overall economic outlook remains stable, with consumer spending showing resilience [11][12]. - The report anticipates two rate cuts in the second half of the year, contingent on the impact of tariffs and potential retaliatory actions from other countries [13]. Summary by Sections Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve's recent meeting highlighted a shift towards a more cautious approach, with an emphasis on the increased uncertainty in economic prospects [10][11]. - The decision to slow down the balance sheet reduction is viewed as a permanent adjustment rather than a temporary measure [10][11]. Economic Forecasts - The Federal Reserve has revised its GDP growth forecast down to 1.7% and increased its inflation forecast to 2.7%, reflecting a cautious outlook on the economy [11][12]. - The unemployment rate is projected to rise slightly to 4.4%, indicating a stable labor market [11][12]. Market Outlook - The report suggests that the recent adjustments in the U.S. stock market may have reached their limits, with limited downside potential moving forward [13]. - The anticipated rate cuts are expected to provide further support to the market, particularly if economic conditions worsen due to tariffs or other external factors [13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company, ZTO Express, reported a revenue of 44.28 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.3%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 8.82 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.8%, while the adjusted net profit was 10.15 billion yuan, up by 12.7% [4][13][22] - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 12.92 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 21.7%, with a net profit of 2.38 billion yuan, up 8.7% [4][13] - The express delivery volume for the company reached 34 billion pieces in 2024, a growth of 12.6%, contributing to a total express business revenue of 40.95 billion yuan, which is a 15.4% increase [5][14] Company Overview - The latest closing price of the company's stock is 172.2 HKD, with a total market capitalization of 138.5 billion HKD. The company has a debt-to-asset ratio of 32.13% and a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.63 [3] - The largest shareholder is ZTO Lms Holding Limited [3] Financial Performance - The company is expected to continue focusing on service quality, business scale, and profitability balance. For 2025, capital expenditure is projected to be around 5.2 billion yuan, with business volume anticipated to reach 40.8-42.2 billion pieces, reflecting a growth of 20%-24% [7][23] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are 54.5 billion yuan, 62 billion yuan, and 67.5 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 23.1%, 13.8%, and 8.9% respectively. Net profits for the same period are expected to be 10.81 billion yuan, 11.88 billion yuan, and 12.86 billion yuan, with growth rates of 22.6%, 9.9%, and 8.2% [7][23] Cost Management - The company has successfully reduced core costs, with unit transportation costs decreasing by 8.9% to 0.41 yuan due to improved routing and loading rates. Overall, core costs have been further reduced [6][18] - The gross profit for 2024 increased by 17.6% to 13.72 billion yuan, with a gross margin improvement of 0.6 percentage points to 31.0% [19]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company, ZTO Express, reported a revenue of 44.28 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.3%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 8.82 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.8%, while the adjusted net profit was 10.15 billion yuan, up 12.7% year-on-year [4][13][22] - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 12.92 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.7%, with a net profit of 2.38 billion yuan, up 8.7% [4][13] - The express delivery volume for the company reached 34 billion pieces in 2024, a growth of 12.6%, contributing to a total express business revenue of 40.95 billion yuan, which is a 15.4% increase [5][14] - The company has focused on improving efficiency and reducing core costs, with unit transportation costs decreasing by 8.9% to 0.41 yuan [6][18] Financial Performance - The company forecasts a capital expenditure of approximately 5.2 billion yuan for 2025, continuing a downward trend, with expected business volume growth of 20%-24% [7][23] - Projected revenues for 2025-2027 are 54.50 billion yuan, 62.00 billion yuan, and 67.51 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 23.1%, 13.8%, and 8.9% respectively. The net profit for the same period is expected to be 10.81 billion yuan, 11.88 billion yuan, and 12.86 billion yuan, with growth rates of 22.6%, 9.9%, and 8.2% [7][10][23] - The company's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2025-2027 are projected to be 11.6X, 10.6X, and 9.8X, indicating a relatively low valuation [7][23] Operational Efficiency - The company has seen an increase in high-value packages and a reduction in core costs, with the overall gross profit rising by 17.6% to 13.72 billion yuan, and the gross margin improving by 0.6 percentage points to 31.0% [19][22]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative increase in stock price of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within the next six months [7][13]. Core Insights - The company is projected to achieve stable profit growth in 2024, with total operating revenue expected to reach 13.585 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 67.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.173 billion yuan, up 52.57% year-on-year [3][9]. - The company plans to maintain stable gold production in 2025, with a target of no less than 8 tons, supported by its four large-scale quality mines [4]. - Significant cost reductions have been achieved, with the unit cost of gold decreasing to 145 yuan/g in 2024 from 176 yuan/g in 2023, reflecting improved operational efficiency [5]. - The company has made strides in international expansion, successfully acquiring 100% of Osino, adding 127.2 tons of gold resources, which is expected to contribute an annual production capacity of 5 tons of gold [6]. - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 indicate continued strong performance, with net profits projected at 3.176 billion yuan, 3.789 billion yuan, and 4.370 billion yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 46.15%, 19.32%, and 15.32% [7][9]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The latest closing price is 17.63 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 49 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 43.8 billion yuan [2]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a total operating revenue of 13.585 billion yuan in 2024, with a net profit of 2.173 billion yuan, marking significant growth driven by rising gold and silver prices [3][9]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 1.14 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 15.41 [9][12]. Production and Cost Management - Gold production in 2024 is expected to be 8.04 tons, a 14.69% increase from the previous year, alongside increases in lead and zinc production [4]. - The company has demonstrated strong cost control, with a notable decrease in gold production costs [5]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is actively pursuing international resource acquisition and has successfully increased its resource base through strategic acquisitions and exploration efforts [6].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the near term [2][7]. Core Insights - The company has a complete Wi-Fi FEM product line, including Wi-Fi 5, Wi-Fi 6/6E, and Wi-Fi 7, with several products certified by major international chip manufacturers [5]. - The revenue from Wi-Fi 7 products is expected to grow significantly, with major clients like TP Link, ZTE, and Xiaomi increasing their purchase volumes [5]. - The company plans to increase its stake in Shenzhen Chip Zhongxin Technology to 51%, aiming to enhance its presence in AI edge applications [6]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for the company are projected at 530 million yuan in 2024, 850 million yuan in 2025, and 980 million yuan in 2026, with corresponding net profits of 6 million yuan and 24 million yuan in 2025 and 2026 respectively [7][9]. - The company is expected to experience a revenue growth rate of 26.64% in 2024 and 61.78% in 2025 [9]. - The EBITDA is projected to improve from -54.57 million yuan in 2024 to 26.98 million yuan in 2026 [9].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the near term [2][7]. Core Insights - The company has a complete Wi-Fi FEM product line, including Wi-Fi 5, Wi-Fi 6/6E, and Wi-Fi 7, with several products certified by major international chip manufacturers [5]. - The revenue growth is expected to be driven by the increasing adoption of Wi-Fi 7 products, with significant orders from clients like TP Link, ZTE, and Xiaomi [5]. - The company plans to increase its stake in Shenzhen Chip Zhongxin Technology to 51%, aiming to enhance its presence in AI edge applications [6]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for the company are projected at 530 million yuan in 2024, 850 million yuan in 2025, and 980 million yuan in 2026, with a significant growth rate of 61.78% in 2025 [7][9]. - The net profit is expected to turn positive by 2025, with estimates of 6 million yuan and 24 million yuan in 2026 [7][9]. - The company is currently experiencing a negative net profit of 71.43 million yuan in 2024, indicating a challenging year ahead before recovery [9]. Company Overview - The latest closing price of the company's stock is 13.81 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 5.9 billion yuan [4]. - The company has a low debt-to-asset ratio of 5.4%, indicating a strong financial position [4]. - The largest shareholder is Peng Yuhong, reflecting concentrated ownership [4].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [2][7] Core Insights - The company has a complete Wi-Fi FEM product line, including Wi-Fi 5, Wi-Fi 6/6E, and Wi-Fi 7, with multiple products certified by major international chip manufacturers [5] - Wi-Fi 7 products are expected to drive revenue growth, with significant customer demand from companies like TP Link, ZTE, and Xiaomi [5] - The company plans to increase its stake in Shenzhen Chip Zhongxin Technology to 51%, targeting AI edge applications and expanding into smart IoT markets [6] Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected at 530 million, 850 million, and 980 million yuan respectively, with net profits expected to be -71.43 million, 6 million, and 24 million yuan [7][9] - The company is expected to see a revenue growth rate of 26.64% in 2024 and 61.78% in 2025 [9] - The EBITDA is projected to improve from -54.57 million yuan in 2024 to 26.98 million yuan in 2026 [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative increase in stock price of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within the next six months [7][13]. Core Insights - The company is projected to achieve stable profit growth in 2024, with total operating revenue expected to reach 13.585 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 67.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.173 billion yuan, up 52.57% year-on-year [3][9]. - The company plans to maintain stable gold production in 2025, with a target of no less than 8 tons, and has successfully increased its resource reserves through international acquisitions and exploration efforts [4][6]. - Cost control has significantly improved, with the unit cost of gold production decreasing from 176 yuan/g in 2023 to 145 yuan/g in 2024, reflecting enhanced operational efficiency [5]. Financial Performance - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 3.176 billion yuan, 3.789 billion yuan, and 4.370 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 46.15%, 19.32%, and 15.32% [7][9]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) are 1.14 yuan, 1.36 yuan, and 1.57 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 15.41, 12.92, and 11.20 [9][12]. Production and Exploration - The company has successfully completed the acquisition of Osino, adding 127.2 tons of gold resources, which is expected to contribute an annual production capacity of 5 tons of gold [6]. - In 2024, the company achieved gold production of 8.04 tons, a 14.69% increase year-on-year, along with significant increases in lead and zinc production [4].