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国轩高科(002074):上半年出货同比高增,固态布局有序推进
China Post Securities· 2025-09-16 03:35
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" and is maintained [1] Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in shipments and is making orderly progress in solid-state battery development [4] - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 19.394 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.48%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 367 million yuan, up 35.22% year-on-year [4] - The company is focusing on innovation and R&D, with a reported R&D investment of 1.382 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 13.34% [5] Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company shipped approximately 40 GWh, a year-on-year increase of about 48% [5] - The revenue from power products was 14.034 billion yuan, up 19.94% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 14.24%, an increase of 2.16 percentage points [5] - The company expects revenues of 45.050 billion, 56.908 billion, and 69.227 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 27.29%, 26.32%, and 21.65% [6][8] Profitability Forecast - The forecasted net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is 1.547 billion, 2.435 billion, and 3.241 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 28.23%, 57.37%, and 33.07% [6][8] - The projected PE ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 53.62, 34.07, and 25.61, respectively [6][8]
创世纪(300083):3C业务需求旺盛,海外基地投产进一步提升全球竞争力
China Post Securities· 2025-09-16 02:12
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative increase in stock price of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within six months [7][12]. Core Insights - The company reported strong growth in H1 2025, with revenue reaching 2.441 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.44%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 233 million yuan, up 47.38% year-on-year [4][5]. - The 3C business segment showed significant demand, driven by AI innovations and increased penetration of titanium alloy frames and foldable screens, leading to a revenue of 896 million yuan, a 34.07% increase year-on-year [5][6]. - The company successfully launched its Vietnam production base, enhancing its global competitiveness and reducing operational costs, with overseas revenue growing by 89.45% to 161 million yuan [6][7]. Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved a gross margin of 25.06%, an increase of 2.10 percentage points, and a net margin of 9.76%, up 1.75 percentage points [6]. - The company forecasts revenue growth from 5.317 billion yuan in 2025 to 7.100 billion yuan in 2027, with net profit expected to rise from 465 million yuan to 667 million yuan during the same period [7][10]. - The projected PE ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 36.99, 29.88, and 25.74 respectively, indicating a positive outlook on valuation [7][10].
信用周报:调整后,二永的性价比如何?-20250915
China Post Securities· 2025-09-15 13:20
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, the bond market continued to adjust, with credit bond sentiment generally pessimistic and the adjustment amplitude greater than that of interest rates. The overall decline of credit bonds has exceeded the previous round of adjustment at the end of July, and some maturities have even exceeded the bear - flat stage at the end of February this year. Coupon assets have a certain cost - effectiveness [2][5][10][33]. - Currently, there are some opportunities to participate in 2 - 5 - year bank secondary capital bonds after adjustment. The sinking of weak - quality urban investment bonds with maturities of 1 - 3 years can continue to be participated in, and the riding income of varieties with a yield of more than 2.2% and a maturity of about 3 years is quite considerable. For ultra - long - term bonds, the yield has a certain cost - effectiveness after adjustment, but only allocation - type institutions are recommended to participate moderately [5][33]. - The second batch of science - innovation ETFs was listed last week, with enthusiastic subscription sentiment, which may become a marginal stabilizing force for the credit market. However, the boosting effect on the bond market is currently limited [30]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Bond Market Adjustment - In the first half of last week, the stock - bond "see - saw" effect was still evident, and the news of fund fee adjustment made the market sentiment sluggish, with yields rising continuously. The 10Y Treasury bond interest rate exceeded the phased top point of 1.80%. In the second half of the week, the expectation of the central bank restarting bond purchases increased, and yields recovered somewhat, but overall, it closed down for the whole week [2][10]. - Credit bonds weakened in sync with interest rates, and the decline of most maturities of credit bonds exceeded that of interest rates. The anti - decline attribute of credit bonds was weak in this long - lasting bear market [2][10]. - From September 8th to September 12th, 2025, the yields of 1Y, 2Y, 3Y, 4Y, and 5Y Treasury bonds increased by 0.4BP, 2.1BP, 1.0BP, 0.5BP, and 0.2BP respectively, while the yields of the same - maturity AAA medium - term notes increased by 3.8BP, 4.8BP, 6.2BP, 3.1BP, and 2.5BP respectively, and the yields of AA + medium - term notes increased by 4.8BP, 5.8BP, 6.2BP, 7.1BP, and 3.5BP respectively [10]. - The market of ultra - long - term credit bonds weakened synchronously, with the decline mostly exceeding that of the same - maturity interest - rate bonds. The yields of AAA/AA + 10Y medium - term notes increased by 8.53BP and 7.53BP respectively, the yields of AAA/AA + 10Y urban investment bonds increased by 6.36BP and 5.35BP respectively, the yield of AAA - 10Y bank secondary capital bonds increased by 10.61BP, while the yield of 10Y Treasury bonds increased by 4.10BP [12][13]. 3.2 Performance of Secondary Perpetual (Er Yong) Bonds - The market of secondary perpetual bonds weakened synchronously, and the "volatility amplifier" feature was very obvious. The decline of 1Y - 5Y was significantly higher than that of ordinary credit bonds, and the decline of the ultra - long - term part was also higher than that of ultra - long - term credit bonds [3][16]. - From the perspective of the curve term structure, the parts within 1 year and over 7 years were relatively flat, and the curve steepened the most from 2 to 6 years. The yields of 1 - 5 years, 7 years, and 10 years of AAA - bank secondary capital bonds increased by 6.09BP, 8.75BP, 9.97BP, 10.32BP, 9.71BP, 8.81BP, and 10.61BP respectively [16]. - Currently, the part of the curve with a maturity of 3 years and above is still 32BP - 42BP away from the lowest yield point since 2025. Compared with the sharp decline at the end of July, the yield points of maturities over 2 years have reached new highs, and the adjustment amplitude is higher than that of the sharp decline at the end of July. The yields of maturities over 4 years have even exceeded the bear - flat position at the end of February this year [3][16]. - In terms of active trading, the sentiment was the most pessimistic in the first half of the week and improved marginally in the second half, but overall, the short - selling force was stronger. From September 8th to September 12th, the low - valuation trading proportion of secondary perpetual bonds was 0.00%, 0.00%, 0.00%, 27.50%, 100.00% respectively; the average trading duration was 0.66 years, 0.65 years, 0.57 years, 3.67 years, 6.54 years respectively [17]. 3.3 Ultra - long - term Credit Bonds - The institutional selling market of ultra - long - term credit bonds strengthened for 4 consecutive days and only improved on Friday. Institutions were more eager to sell ultra - long - term credit bonds last week. The discount amplitude of ultra - long - term credit bonds was not small, and there were also transactions with a discount of more than 4BP. About 25% of the discount trading amplitudes were over 4BP last week [4][21]. - The market's willingness to buy ultra - long - term credit bonds was very weak. High - activity trading was mainly concentrated in some short - term real - estate and financial defective individual bonds, as well as weak - quality urban investment bonds. About 35% of the trading amplitudes below the valuation were over 4BP last week, mainly real - estate bonds such as Vanke and Longfor, and there were also central - enterprise bonds like AVIC Industry Finance, all of which were short - term. In addition, many weak - quality urban investment bonds, such as AA(2), AA, AA - with maturities of 2 - 5 years, also had relatively large trading amplitudes below the valuation [4][25]. 3.4 Institutional Behavior - Public funds significantly sold secondary perpetual bonds last week. They reduced their holdings of credit bonds overall, with a net selling scale of 26.2 billion yuan, mainly selling bonds with maturities of 3 - 5 years. They significantly reduced their holdings of secondary perpetual bonds, with a total net selling of 64.3 billion yuan of bank secondary capital bonds [4][27]. - Allocation - type institutions had strong buying power after the adjustment. Wealth management, insurance, and other types of institutions net - bought 14.3 billion, 15.3 billion, and 29.2 billion yuan of bank secondary capital bonds respectively. In addition, insurance and wealth management institutions net - bought 12.8 billion and 20.9 billion yuan of credit bonds respectively, mainly bonds with maturities within 3 years [4][27]. 3.5 Impact of Science - innovation ETFs - The second batch of science - innovation ETFs was listed last week, with enthusiastic subscription sentiment. On September 12th, the second batch of 14 science - innovation bond ETFs started to raise funds, and most products had good subscription situations. It is expected that the raised funds can exceed 40 billion yuan, and the product scale is expected to continue to grow this week, pushing up the valuation of component bonds [30]. - However, the boosting effect of the second batch of science - innovation ETFs on the bond market is currently limited. The performance of listed credit ETF products was average last week. The weekly -环比 scale of credit benchmark - making ETF products has shrunk for 4 consecutive weeks since the market adjustment in the second week of August, and the weekly -环比 scale of science - innovation ETF products last week was significantly weaker than that in August. The unit net values of the above two types of credit bond ETFs were still in the red last week [30].
房地产行业报告(2025.09.08-2025.09.14):有实力转型多元化的房企有望获得超额收益
China Post Securities· 2025-09-15 13:02
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - The report indicates that real estate development investment in China decreased by 12.9% year-on-year in the first eight months of 2025, totaling 60,309 billion yuan. The sales area of newly built commercial housing also fell by 4.7% year-on-year, with sales amounting to 55,015 billion yuan, down 7.3% [1] - The report suggests that real estate companies capable of diversifying their operations are likely to achieve excess returns in the future [1] Industry Fundamentals Tracking New Housing Transactions and Inventory - In the last week, the new housing transaction area in 30 major cities was 1,208,700 square meters, with a cumulative area of 6,228,620 square meters for the year, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 4.1%. The average transaction area over the past four weeks was 1,503,900 square meters, down 2.4% year-on-year and 1.1% month-on-month [2][11] - The average transaction area for first-tier cities was 421,800 square meters, down 9% year-on-year but up 2.7% month-on-month. For second-tier cities, it was 776,900 square meters, up 6.3% year-on-year and 1.1% month-on-month. Third-tier cities saw an average of 305,300 square meters, down 11.9% year-on-year and 10.7% month-on-month [11] Second-Hand Housing Transactions and Listings - In the last week, the transaction area for second-hand housing in 20 cities was 199,480 square meters, with a cumulative area of 7,969,590 square meters for the year, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 14.9% [3][16] - The listing index for second-hand housing was 12.02 as of September 1, 2025, up 1.3% month-on-month, while the listing price index was 152.14, down 0.35% month-on-month [20] Land Market Transactions - In the last week, 87 residential land plots were newly supplied in 100 major cities, with 37 plots successfully sold. The average floor price for residential land was 4,720 yuan per square meter, with a premium rate of 3.65%, down 1.37 percentage points month-on-month [23][24] Market Review - The A-share real estate index rose by 5.98% last week, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which increased by 1.38%, by 4.6 percentage points. The Hong Kong property service and management index rose by 7.53%, outperforming the Hang Seng Composite Index by 3.46 percentage points [4][28]
化债政策持续加码,关注内需受益板块
China Post Securities· 2025-09-15 13:02
Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the construction materials industry is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing implementation of debt reduction policies, emphasizing the need to balance development and safety while enhancing government debt management mechanisms. This is expected to provide strong support for stable economic growth [4] - There is an increasing expectation for domestic demand to strengthen, particularly in sectors such as waterproofing and cement, which are anticipated to benefit significantly from improved cash flow and are currently at the bottom of the industry cycle [4] Summary by Sections Cement - The cement industry is entering a peak season, with overall demand showing slow recovery but limited growth. In August 2025, the monthly cement production was 148 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 6.2% [5][9] - The implementation of policies to limit overproduction is expected to lead to a continuous decline in capacity, thereby significantly improving capacity utilization [5] Glass - The glass industry is experiencing a downward trend in demand due to the impact of the real estate sector. The demand showed some recovery during the off-season from June to August, but supply-demand conflicts persist [5][14] - The report anticipates that the anti-involution policies will not lead to a blanket removal of capacity but will raise environmental standards and costs, accelerating the industry's cold repair progress [5] Fiberglass - The fiberglass sector is driven by demand from the AI industry, with low dielectric products experiencing a surge in both volume and price. The demand is expected to grow explosively alongside AI developments [5] Consumer Building Materials - The profitability of the consumer building materials sector has reached a bottom, with no further downward price pressure. The industry is seeing a strong push for price increases, particularly in waterproofing, coatings, and gypsum board, leading to expectations of profitability improvement in the second half of the year [6] Market Performance - In the past week (September 8-14), the construction materials sector index increased by 0.89%, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.52% and the Shenzhen Component Index by 2.65% [7]
区域经济研究报告:山西左权:特色农旅发展迅速,产业升级潜力较大
China Post Securities· 2025-09-15 11:55
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The economic recovery in Zuoquan County is evident, with the tertiary industry becoming the dominant sector, but investment-driven growth is insufficient [2][10]. - The county is rich in mineral, agricultural, and cultural tourism resources, yet the industrial chain needs to be extended overall [3][4]. - The county has implemented strong investment promotion policies and adopted a layout of "one axis with multiple clusters" for advantageous industries [4]. - Despite having great potential for economic development, concerns such as short agricultural industrial chains, grid structure issues, and low - end industrial products need to be addressed [62]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Economic Foundation Analysis - **Economic Growth**: In 2024, Zuoquan County's GDP reached 8.04 billion yuan, with a growth rate rebounding from - 7.4% in 2023 to 4.1%, ranking third in the city. Economically, it belongs to the third - tier group in Jinzhong City [10]. - **Tertiary - Industry Composition**: The county's tertiary - industry composition shows a pattern of "stable growth in the primary industry, decline in the secondary industry, and a leap in the tertiary industry". In 2024, the tertiary industry's proportion leaped to 60.3%, surpassing the secondary industry [12]. - **Investment and Consumption**: In 2024, the county's total social fixed - asset investment decreased by 1%, and real - estate development investment decreased by 17.6%. Consumption in the catering industry increased significantly, with social consumer goods retail总额 increasing by 1.9% [19][22]. - **Resident Population Change**: By the end of 2024, the county's permanent population was 140,897, with a urbanization rate of 55.99%, lower than the provincial average. The population showed negative growth [25]. 3.2 Resource and Industrial Endowment - **Natural Resource Endowment**: The county has 30 types of minerals. Coal and iron ore have high mining values. It also has three major cultural tourism scenic areas and three leading agricultural industries (walnuts, black goats, and forsythia) [26][30][33]. - **Employment Contribution**: Planting and mining are the main forces driving employment. The primary industry has obvious employment - driving effects, and the secondary and tertiary industries' employment has increased [36][40]. - **Resource Competition Pattern**: The coal industry has limited competitiveness, while there is room for exploration in agriculture and cultural tourism. The county needs to address issues such as extending the industrial chain and strengthening brand building [44][46][47]. 3.3 Industrial Policy - **Investment Promotion Policy**: The county promotes investment promotion as a "No. 1 project", implementing measures such as improving approval processes, tax incentives, and providing land and financial support [48]. - **Industrial Park Layout**: The county adopts a layout of "one axis with multiple clusters", focusing on developing new energy and light industries. Each cluster has its own development direction, and infrastructure and environmental protection requirements are unified [51][58]. - **Industrial Development Potential**: The county has the potential to develop characteristic industrial clusters, but is restricted by issues such as grid structure and the need for industrial chain extension [59][60]. 3.4 Summary and Suggestions - **Agricultural Development**: Extend the industrial chain, strengthen brand building, cultivate leading enterprises, and improve market - oriented and standardized operation levels [62]. - **Grid Structure**: Accelerate grid project construction and optimize the new - energy grid - connection and consumption system [63]. - **Industrial Development**: Promote industrial transformation and upgrading, increase technological innovation and R & D investment, and cultivate emerging industries and high - end manufacturing [64].
波动降低后是更好的参与时机
China Post Securities· 2025-09-15 11:38
Market Performance Review - The A-share market recovered from last week's decline, with significant volatility remaining a characteristic feature. Major indices mostly rose, with the ChiNext index rebounding by 5.48% after a previous drop of 5.42%. The CSI A50 and SSE 50, which are heavily weighted by large-cap stocks, lagged behind in terms of growth. Growth style stocks showed a strong rebound, while financial stocks had smaller gains. Small-cap stocks significantly outperformed large-cap stocks, with the Ning and Mao indices both rising, the Ning combination increasing by 1.95% and the Mao index slightly up by 0.40% [3][12][29]. Industry Overview - The industry saw a general rebound but lacked a clear leading theme. Among the Shenwan first-level industries, electronics (6.15%), real estate (5.98%), agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery (4.81%), media (4.27%), and non-ferrous metals (3.76%) led the gains. Conversely, sectors like social services (-0.28%), pharmaceuticals and biology (-0.36%), oil and petrochemicals (-0.41%), banking (-0.66%), and comprehensive (-1.43%) performed poorly. The current market is still entangled in narratives around AI infrastructure investment, potential Fed rate cuts, and anti-involution policies [4][13][29]. Future Outlook and Investment Views - The report suggests that lower volatility presents better participation opportunities. Although there was a significant single-day rise in the A-share market, it does not imply that short-term downward volatility risks have been fully alleviated. Intense bull-bear battles are common at the tail end of a trend, indicating that time is needed for consolidation before the next upward phase. Future volatility in the A-share market is expected to be more influenced by overseas factors, particularly following disappointing U.S. non-farm payroll data in August, which solidifies expectations for a Fed rate cut in September. The A-share market will likely use the rate cut as a key pricing logic point after completing its adjustment [4][29]. Stock Selection Strategy - The report emphasizes that individual stock alpha logic is superior to industry beta logic, focusing on identifying "turnaround" opportunities in individual stocks. The TMT growth sectors, represented by AI applications, computing power chains, and optical modules, which have been adjusting since March, are expected to see valuation recovery opportunities. The report highlights that simply buying stocks with "earnings exceeding expectations" during the mid-year reporting season may not yield sustained relative returns. Instead, the "turnaround" strategy is deemed more effective for performance discovery during this period. The report constructs a portfolio of stocks expected to exceed earnings expectations for the mid-year report, aiming to capture excess returns from individual stock alpha in September and October [5][29].
北京君正(300223):多产品线协同发力,AI驱动成长可期
China Post Securities· 2025-09-15 10:23
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 20% relative to the benchmark index within six months [6][13]. Core Views - The company demonstrated resilient revenue growth, with a 6.75% year-on-year increase in revenue for H1 2025, driven by the collaborative growth of storage chips, computing chips, and analog and interconnect chips [4][5]. - The company is actively advancing its AI technology layout, with new products in computing chips and storage chips expected to drive future growth, particularly in the automotive and industrial electronics sectors [5][6]. Company Overview - The latest closing price is 84.95 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 410 billion yuan and a circulating market capitalization of 357 billion yuan [2]. - The company has a total share capital of 4.83 billion shares, with 4.21 billion shares in circulation [2]. - The company’s largest shareholder is Beijing Yitang Shengxin Semiconductor Industry Investment Center (Limited Partnership) [2]. Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 2.249 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.75%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 203 million yuan, up 2.85% year-on-year [3][4]. - The company’s R&D expenses reached 348 million yuan in H1 2025, accounting for 15.47% of revenue [4]. - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 4.95 billion yuan, 5.886 billion yuan, and 6.948 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [6][11]. Product Development and Market Strategy - The company is focusing on new product development and technology upgrades, with the T33 computing chip already in production and the T42 chip expected to launch in 2026 [5]. - The company is enhancing its competitiveness in the automotive electronics market through the introduction of automotive-grade LED drivers and interconnect chips [5]. Earnings Forecast - The forecasted net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is 502.65 million yuan, 651.16 million yuan, and 832.54 million yuan, respectively [11][12].
有色金属行业报告(2025.09.08-2025.09.12):议息会议将至,持续推荐贵金属板块
China Post Securities· 2025-09-15 09:02
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Views - The report emphasizes the strong performance of precious metals, particularly gold, which has reached a historical high. The expectation is for a shift from recession trading to stagflation trading, suggesting a potential slow bull market for gold [5] - Copper prices are expected to rise if interest rate cuts lead to a soft landing for the economy. The current market sentiment is pricing in stagflation or soft landing scenarios, with domestic consumption expected to increase as the peak season approaches [6] - Aluminum prices are also projected to rise due to increased downstream operating rates during the traditional peak season, despite ongoing challenges in the real estate sector [6] - Cobalt prices are on the rise, driven by strong demand and supply constraints, particularly with upcoming policy changes in the Democratic Republic of Congo [7] - Tin prices have increased due to supply shortages, with production rates in key provinces remaining low [7] - Lithium prices are under pressure due to the announcement of a resumption plan for a key mining area, although long-term demand remains strong [8] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the industry is at 6795.38, with a weekly high of 6795.38 and a low of 3725.17 [2] Price Movements - Basic metals saw price increases: Copper up 1.49%, Aluminum up 2.80%, Zinc up 3.10%, Lead up 2.07%, and Tin up 2.70%. Precious metals also saw gains, with Gold up 0.46% and Silver up 3.20% [22] Inventory Levels - Global visible inventory changes: Copper increased by 7945 tons, Zinc increased by 2724 tons, while Lead decreased by 4085 tons [30]
北方华创(002371):集成电路装备高增长,战略并购驱动全链技术协同
China Post Securities· 2025-09-15 09:01
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative increase in stock price of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within the next six months [5][12]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 16.142 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 29.51%. The electronic process equipment segment contributed 15.258 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 33.89% [3]. - The company has strengthened its product line in the semiconductor equipment sector through strategic acquisitions, notably the acquisition of Chip Source Micro, enhancing its capabilities in lithography process equipment [3][4]. - The gross profit margins for electronic process equipment and electronic components were 41.70% and 50.43%, respectively, showing a decline of 2.93 percentage points and 6.96 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 39.485 billion yuan, 49.924 billion yuan, and 59.924 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively. Correspondingly, the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 7.428 billion yuan, 9.598 billion yuan, and 12.036 billion yuan [5][10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 10.29 yuan, 13.30 yuan, and 16.68 yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, with a decreasing price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio from 36.62 to 22.60 over the same period [10][11]. Industry Context - The semiconductor equipment market in China is rapidly growing, with domestic equipment manufacturers narrowing the performance gap with foreign counterparts. The market share of China's semiconductor equipment is expected to continue increasing [4]. - By 2030, China is projected to become the largest semiconductor wafer foundry center globally, with its share of global installed capacity expected to rise from 21% in 2024 to 30% [4].