Report Overview - The report is a precious metals weekly report from Caida Futures, dated August 25, 2025, focusing on gold price trends and related influencing factors [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report Core View - With the increasing likelihood of a Fed rate cut in September, gold prices are expected to strengthen in the medium - term. The complex situation of the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the Fed's monetary policy adjustment are the main factors affecting gold prices [1][4][7] Summary by Related Content Gold Price Performance - Last week, gold prices first declined and then rose. The New York gold price closed at $3,417 per ounce, and the Shanghai gold price closed at 781.12 yuan per gram [1] Russia - Ukraine Conflict - Although Trump has met with leaders of Russia, Ukraine, and Europe, the Russia - Ukraine conflict has actually intensified due to large differences between the two sides on issues such as territory, and the future development remains uncertain [2] Fed Rate - Cut Expectations - Fed Chairman Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole central bank annual meeting was interpreted as dovish, increasing the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in September to 89% from 75% the previous day, and the expected cumulative rate - cut amplitude this year has also increased to about 58 basis points [4] - Trump has pressured Powell and replaced Fed governors. The voices within the Fed supporting rate cuts have increased. After the weakening of employment data, a preventive rate cut is reasonable, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in September is increasing [6][7] Market Impact - The US dollar index fell to around 97.70 last Friday. Gold prices rebounded significantly due to positive news. In the short - term, gold prices need consolidation, and in the medium - term, they are expected to strengthen under the background of the Fed's new rate - cut cycle [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term disk of rebar and iron ore is expected to operate weakly, with the previous rebar rebound nearing its end and entering an adjustment phase, and the iron ore disk following the coking coal and coke trends for adjustment [3][8][11] 3. Summary by Category Rebar - **Futures**: This week, the rebar 10 - contract declined slightly under the drive of increased short - position by main players, closing at 3188 yuan/ton on Friday, a week - on - week decrease of 25 yuan or 0.78% [5] - **Spot**: The mainstream rebar prices in major regions decreased slightly, with the national average rebar price dropping 10 yuan to 3384 yuan/ton [5] - **Supply**: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.59%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.16% and a year - on - year increase of 4.75%. The rebar weekly output decreased by 0.73 tons to 220.45 tons, still at a low level compared to the same period [5] - **Demand**: The building material trading volume decreased slightly, and the apparent consumption of rebar dropped significantly. The 5 - day average building material trading volume decreased by 0.2 tons to 10.0 tons, and the rebar apparent consumption decreased by 20.85 tons to 189.94 tons [8] - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products and rebar continued to accumulate. The total rebar inventory increased by 30.51 tons to 587.19 tons [8] - **Basis**: The basis of rebar is expected to continue to widen, as the current basis is around the average value [8] Iron Ore - **Futures**: This week, the iron ore 01 - contract completed the roll - over, maintaining a range - bound trend. It closed at 776.0 yuan/ton on Friday, a week - on - week increase of 2.5 yuan/ton or 0.32% [8] - **Spot**: The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties increased slightly, and the price of domestic iron ore concentrate rose steadily [8] - **Supply**: As of the 11th, the total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2530.3 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.9 tons. The 45 - port arrivals totaled 2381.9 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 125.9 tons [11] - **Demand**: The daily average port clearance volume of 45 ports was 334.67 tons, a week - on - week increase of 12.82 tons. The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 240.66 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.34 tons [11] - **Inventory**: As of the 15th, the iron ore inventory at 45 ports continued to accumulate slightly, reaching 13819.27 tons. The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills was 9136.34 tons, a week - on - week increase of 123 tons [11] - **Basis**: The basis of iron ore is expected to continue to widen, as the current basis is at the average level [11]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the four stock index futures varieties showed a continuous upward trend, with relatively large increases in CSI 1000 and CSI 500. The basis of the four stock index futures varieties remained in the futures discount mode, and the discount depth improved. The A - share market continued to break through and reach a new high, with small - cap growth styles relatively dominant, and sectors such as communication, electronics, and power equipment leading the way, while the banking sector declined significantly. There was a certain market rotation, and in the long run, industries supported by national policies will maintain an upward - trending oscillation [3]. - In July, external demand remained resilient beyond expectations, but domestic demand - related indicators declined. Extreme weather and investment decline dragged down industrial production, and the growth rate of the service production index also slightly declined. Investment growth in July dropped significantly, especially in manufacturing and real estate development. Social retail growth declined in July due to the gap in subsidy funds and the overdraft of subsequent consumption by the "618 Shopping Festival". It is expected that Sino - US economic and trade relations will remain in a phased stable state, and exports in the second half of the year are expected to maintain strong resilience [4][5]. - Next week, the stock index will continue to rise with oscillations in an environment of high trading volume and rapid sector rotation. To break through the integer mark and the previous bull - market high of 3731, both the weight and technology sectors need to work together [5]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Market Performance - Last week, the four stock index futures varieties showed a continuous upward trend. The basis of the futures - spot of the main contracts of stock index futures was 13.52 for IH, 7.05 for IF, - 37.57 for IC, and - 31.3 for IM. The A - share market continued to break through and reach a new high, with small - cap growth styles relatively dominant. Only the banking sector closed down, and there was a certain market rotation [3]. Macroeconomic Situation - In July, external demand remained resilient, but domestic demand - related indicators declined. Extreme weather and investment decline dragged down industrial production, and the growth rate of the service production index also slightly declined. Investment growth dropped significantly, especially in manufacturing and real estate development. Social retail growth declined due to the gap in subsidy funds and the overdraft of subsequent consumption by the "618 Shopping Festival". It is expected that exports in the second half of the year will maintain strong resilience [4][5]. Market Outlook - Next week, the stock index will continue to rise with oscillations in an environment of high trading volume and rapid sector rotation. To break through the integer mark and the previous bull - market high of 3731, both the weight and technology sectors need to work together [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Gold prices are likely to strengthen in the medium - term despite a possible bumpy upward path, as the Fed's new round of interest rate cuts is a major background factor, and the US dollar is in a downward trend [5]. - A September interest rate cut by the Fed is still a high - probability event, though it may shift from a more aggressive 50 - basis - point cut to a 25 - basis - point cut [5]. 3. Summary by Related Content Gold Price - Last week, the gold price oscillated downward. The main contract 2510 of the Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold futures closed at $3381 per ounce, and Shanghai gold closed at 775 yuan per gram [1]. US - Russia Negotiation - The negotiation between Trump and Putin in Alaska didn't result in any agreement. Trump claimed to hold a US - Russia - Ukraine tripartite meeting soon, and Putin hopes to resolve the Ukraine crisis peacefully. However, the key issue is the extent of Ukraine's compromise on the territorial problem [2]. US Economic Data and Interest Rate Cut Expectations - In July, the US CPI showed that inflation didn't worsen. The year - on - year growth was 2.7% (estimated 2.8%, previous 2.7%), and the month - on - month growth was 0.2% (estimated 0.2%, previous 0.3%). The core CPI (excluding food and energy) had a year - on - year growth of 3.1% (estimated 3%, previous 2.9%) and a month - on - month growth of 0.3% (estimated 0.3%, previous 0.2%) [4]. - The US July PPI had an unexpected increase. The month - on - month growth was 0.9% (far exceeding the market expectation of 0.2%), and the year - on - year increase was 3.3%, higher than the Fed's 2% inflation target. This data made the market's expectation of a September interest rate cut by the Fed cool down slightly, with the probability dropping from nearly 100% to 92% [5]. - A September interest rate cut is still likely, with a possible reduction of 25 basis points instead of 50. Trump wants the interest rate to drop to 1%, while the US Treasury Secretary suggests a neutral rate of 3%. A total of 150 basis points of cuts are expected, with 2 - 3 cuts of 25 basis points each this year and reaching 3% next year [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term copper price is expected to maintain a weak oscillation, waiting for macro - news to drive it. The recent Fed rate - cut expectations are volatile, with uncertainties remaining at the macro - level. Domestically, the macro sentiment is neutral. On the supply - demand side, factors such as the increase in processing fees, the rise in global visible inventories, and weak demand during the off - season have a negative impact on copper prices [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Supply - demand situation - The SMM copper concentrate TC index is reported at - 37.68 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase. The SMM weekly enameled wire industry machine - tool operating rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 78.4% month - on - month, and new orders decreased by 3.18 percentage points. The copper cable enterprise operating rate is 69.3%, continuing to decline from last week, and is expected to slightly drop to 67.6% this week. Although enterprises report that orders have improved compared to the previous period, overall demand has not substantially improved. In August, passenger car sales maintained steady growth, but real - estate transaction areas were significantly weak. The inventories of the three major exchanges increased by 0.7 tons month - on - month [4] 2. Macro - economic situation - The US PPI monthly rate in July reached 0.9%, the largest increase since 2022, indicating a general rise in inflation in the coming months. After the data was released, Fed officials refuted the expectation of a significant rate cut in September, causing the US dollar index to rise and suppressing copper prices. The small - scale meeting between the US and Russian leaders ended without a specific agreement, and the results of the US - Ukraine meeting on Monday should be monitored [4] 3. Market review - Last week, the main contract of Shanghai copper first rose and then fell, mainly affected by the volatile Fed rate - cut expectations. The closing price on Friday was 79,060 yuan/ton, about a 0.7% increase from the previous week [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The overall performance of the live hog market last week was weak with regional differentiation, and the price may fluctuate at a low level in the short term; the corn market was weak and adjusted, and the futures main contract may continue to decline in the short term [5][9] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Live Hogs - Futures: The live hog futures first rose and then fell last week. The LH2511 contract closed at 13,945 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.38% from the previous week's settlement price [5] - Spot: As of August 15, the self - breeding and self - raising live hog breeding profit was 28.85 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 16.28 yuan/head; the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 157.05 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 22.91 yuan/head; the pig - grain ratio was 5.84, a week - on - week decrease of 0.09. The national live hog spot market showed regional differentiation last week, with the overall being weak. Supply pressure was high due to weight reduction and delayed slaughter in July, and high - temperature inhibited consumption, resulting in oversupply. However, after continuous price drops, farmers had resistance sentiment, and the price decline space was limited [5] Corn - Futures: Last week, the performance of the far - month contracts of corn futures was worse than that of the near - month contracts. The C2509 contract closed at 2,266 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.4% from the previous week's settlement price; the C2511 contract closed at 2,190 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.59% from the previous week's settlement price [7] - Spot: The national average spot price of corn was 2,394.12 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1.47 yuan/ton. The prices in ports were mostly stable with some minor adjustments [7] - Industrial Consumption: From August 7 to August 13, 2025, 149 major corn deep - processing enterprises in the country consumed 1.1406 million tons of corn, a decrease of 24,000 tons from the previous week. The processing volume of corn starch enterprises increased by 15,500 tons to 576,000 tons, and the weekly output of corn starch increased by 10,700 tons to 289,200 tons, with the weekly operating rate rising by 2.07% to 55.9%. The operating rate of the DDGS industry was 42.00%, a decrease of 1.08% from the previous week, and the weekly production decreased by 2,200 tons to 85,470 tons, a decrease of 2.51% [8] - Inventory: As of August 13, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 3.402 million tons, a decrease of 6.62%. As of August 15, the total corn inventory in the four northern ports was about 1.74 million tons, and the corn inventory in Guangdong ports was 750,000 tons [8] - Market Outlook: The national corn spot market was stable with a weak trend last week. Policy grain was continuously put into the market in the Northeast, and the market quotation declined slightly; traders in North China sold at high prices, increasing market circulation, and enterprises lowered purchase prices. Some starch enterprises resumed work, increasing the operating rate, while some alcohol enterprises continued maintenance, reducing the operating rate. In the short term, the corn market will be weakly adjusted, and the main contract on the futures market may continue to decline [9]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Last week, the coking coal supply decreased slightly while demand remained stable. The coking coal 2601 contract fell from a high due to the Dalian Commodity Exchange's adjustment of trading limits, and attention should be paid to the support of the 20 - day moving average [3][4] - Last week, the supply and demand of coke were both stable. The coke 2601 contract also fell from a high and stopped falling at the 20 - day moving average. Attention should be paid to the 1.25 - 1.45 range of the coking coal - coke ratio [6][7] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Futures and Spot Market Quotes - The coking coal 2601 contract closed at 1230 on Friday last week, with a weekly increase of 0.24%. The mainstream spot market prices remained stable [3] - The coke 2601 contract closed at 1729.5 on Friday last week, with a weekly decrease of 0.26%. The mainstream spot market prices increased by 50 - 55 yuan/ton [3] 2. Fundamental Analysis Coking Coal - **Supply**: The utilization rate of the approved production capacity of 523 coking coal mines in the country was 83.7%, a decrease of 0.2% from the previous week. The utilization rate of the production capacity of 314 independent coal washing plants was 36.5%, an increase of 0.3% from the previous week, and the daily output of clean coal was 264,000 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons from the previous week. There were continuous disturbances at the coal mine end, and the supply of some coal types was tight. The inventory pressure of coking coal mines was small, the raw coal inventory decreased, and the clean coal inventory of coal washing plants increased [3] - **Demand**: The sixth round of coke price increase was implemented last week. The blast furnace operating rate of steel mills remained high, supporting the strong rigid demand for coking coal. The profit of coking enterprises was repaired, and the operating rate increased slightly. Downstream enterprises mainly purchased on - demand, and the proportion of auction failures increased [4] Coke - **Supply**: The utilization rate of the production capacity of the national full - sample independent coking enterprises was 74.34%, an increase of 0.31% from the previous week, and the daily output was 653,800 tons, an increase of 28,000 tons from the previous week. The profit of coking enterprises was repaired, and the inventory decreased. However, some coking enterprises in some regions received production restriction notices, and the supply was expected to be restricted. The coke spot at ports was stable and slightly stronger, and the inventory decreased slightly [6] - **Demand**: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.58%, a decrease of 0.16% from the previous week, and the daily pig iron output was 2.4066 million tons, an increase of 3,400 tons from the previous week. The profitability of steel mills decreased slightly but remained good. The rigid demand for coke remained, but the demand was mainly on - demand in the short term [6] 3. Inventory - **Coking Coal**: The total inventory of coking coal was 20.3817 million tons, a decrease of 357,500 tons from the previous week, including a decrease of 218,500 tons at ports, 110,400 tons at full - sample independent coking plants, and 28,600 tons at 247 sample steel mills [8] - **Coke**: The total inventory of coke was 8.8742 million tons, a decrease of 197,400 tons from the previous week, including a decrease of 30,400 tons at ports, 72,200 tons at full - sample independent coking plants, and 94,800 tons at 247 sample steel mills [8]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the four stock index futures varieties continued to show a high-level consolidation pattern, with relatively large adjustments in CSI 300 and CSI 500. Most of the basis of the four stock index futures varieties was still in the mode of futures discount. The A-share market was mainly in a high-level adjustment last week, and it is more likely to continue to decline next week. There has been a high-low switch in sectors, with the financial industry fading from the gain list and the relatively low-level pharmaceutical and education industries seeing supplementary gains [4]. - Looking ahead to next week, the Politburo meeting released multiple significant signals on the policy front. The meeting's judgment on the external situation has eased. In terms of macro policies, the meeting emphasized the implementation of a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy. In terms of structural policies, the policy to expand domestic demand emphasizes supporting "service consumption" and promoting the construction of "two important aspects", while the "anti-involution" policy focuses on the capacity governance of key industries [5]. - In historical market trends driven by incremental liquidity, the leading industries are mostly continuously concentrated rather than rotating from high to low. The essence behind this is that funds pursue efficiency and tend to focus on high-consensus varieties. The market performance in July verified this point. Recently, the marginal increase in incremental liquidity has slowed down, and the market needs to cool down to achieve stable and long-term development [6]. Group 3: Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Last week, the four stock index futures varieties continued high-level consolidation, with CSI 300 and CSI 500 having relatively large adjustments. The basis of the four stock index futures varieties was mostly in the futures discount mode. The A-share market was in high-level adjustment, with shrinking trading volume and profit-taking pressure at high levels. There was a high-low switch in sectors, with the financial industry fading from the gain list and the pharmaceutical and education industries seeing supplementary gains. The Chinese medicine sector rose 3.94% in the past 3 days, and the education sector rose 2.33% in the past 3 days [4]. Comprehensive Analysis - Next week, the Politburo meeting released multiple significant policy signals. The judgment on the external situation has eased. Macro policies emphasize a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy. Structural policies focus on supporting "service consumption", promoting "two important aspects" construction, and capacity governance in key industries [5]. - Historically, in market trends driven by incremental liquidity, leading industries are concentrated rather than rotating from high to low. The market in July verified this. Recently, the marginal increase in incremental liquidity has slowed down, and the market needs to cool down [6].

财达期货｜铜周报 2025-8-4 宏观方面，7 月美联储利率会议决定不降息，符合市场预期，但会后声明 叠加后续公布的非农就业数据不及预期使得市场对 9 月降息预期升温。美国 总统特朗普签署公告宣布对自 8 月 1 日起对进口半成品铜产品及铜密集型衍 生产品征收 50%的关税，铜输入原料（例如铜矿石、精矿、锍铜、阴极铜和 阳极铜）和铜废料不受关税约束，消息发布后 COMEX 铜暴跌，LME 铜小幅 跟跌。中美贸易谈判双方同意继续推动已暂停的美方对等关税 24%部分如期 展期 90 天，但并未达成新的突破性协议。 总的来看，原料紧张及库存低位能够为铜价提供下跌的支撑，但目前整 体仍处淡季，无明显上行动能。市场仍等待美国与未达成贸易协议国家的谈 判结果，不确定性较高压制铜价，预计短期受宏观影响铜价仍震荡偏弱走势。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 第 1页共 3页 财达期货｜铜周报 铜价短期震荡偏弱 F3084967 Z0018883 供需方面，部分冶炼厂仍面临亏损状态，加工费维持负数区间。上周漆 包线行业订单整体平稳，周尾受铜价下行带动，新增订单环比增长 1.68 个百 分点，推动开机率小幅回升至 78.2%。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The probability of a Fed rate cut in September has increased significantly, causing the gold price to strengthen again. If the Fed restarts the rate - cut channel, the gold price will return to a bull market in the medium and long term, but it is in a box - oscillation pattern in the short term [1][6] - Trump's tariff policies may lead to a stagflation effect, and the optimistic sentiment in the market about the impact of these policies on the economy is fading [2][4] - The weakening of the July non - farm payrolls data has increased the possibility of a Fed rate cut in September, and the probability has risen from 40% to 75%. Trump is angry about the non - farm data and blames the Bureau of Labor Statistics [5] 3. Summary by Related Content Gold Price Performance - Last week, the international gold price rebounded to $3416 per ounce, and the Shanghai gold price rebounded to 781 yuan per gram. Affected by the poor non - farm payrolls data on Friday, the gold price rose again [1][6] Fed Interest Rate Policy - At the July FOMC meeting, the Fed kept the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50%, the fifth time since early 2025. There were two dissenting votes, indicating deepening internal differences. Fed Chair Powell said future policy adjustments depend on all evidence, and his speech was considered hawkish [1] Trump's Tariff Policies - Trump imposed additional tariffs of 10% - 41% on imports from multiple countries and regions. These tariffs may penetrate into economic data in the coming months and cause a stagflation effect [3][4] Non - farm Payrolls Data - In July, non - farm employment increased by only 73,000, far lower than the expected 100,000, and the data for the previous two months was revised down by 258,000. The three - month growth rate was as low as 35,000. The unemployment rate remained at 4.2%, and the average hourly wage rose 0.3% month - on - month. The weakening of the employment market has increased the probability of a Fed rate cut in September [5]