Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Last week, the coking coal supply decreased slightly while demand remained stable. The coking coal 2601 contract fell from a high due to the Dalian Commodity Exchange's adjustment of trading limits, and attention should be paid to the support of the 20 - day moving average [3][4] - Last week, the supply and demand of coke were both stable. The coke 2601 contract also fell from a high and stopped falling at the 20 - day moving average. Attention should be paid to the 1.25 - 1.45 range of the coking coal - coke ratio [6][7] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Futures and Spot Market Quotes - The coking coal 2601 contract closed at 1230 on Friday last week, with a weekly increase of 0.24%. The mainstream spot market prices remained stable [3] - The coke 2601 contract closed at 1729.5 on Friday last week, with a weekly decrease of 0.26%. The mainstream spot market prices increased by 50 - 55 yuan/ton [3] 2. Fundamental Analysis Coking Coal - **Supply**: The utilization rate of the approved production capacity of 523 coking coal mines in the country was 83.7%, a decrease of 0.2% from the previous week. The utilization rate of the production capacity of 314 independent coal washing plants was 36.5%, an increase of 0.3% from the previous week, and the daily output of clean coal was 264,000 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons from the previous week. There were continuous disturbances at the coal mine end, and the supply of some coal types was tight. The inventory pressure of coking coal mines was small, the raw coal inventory decreased, and the clean coal inventory of coal washing plants increased [3] - **Demand**: The sixth round of coke price increase was implemented last week. The blast furnace operating rate of steel mills remained high, supporting the strong rigid demand for coking coal. The profit of coking enterprises was repaired, and the operating rate increased slightly. Downstream enterprises mainly purchased on - demand, and the proportion of auction failures increased [4] Coke - **Supply**: The utilization rate of the production capacity of the national full - sample independent coking enterprises was 74.34%, an increase of 0.31% from the previous week, and the daily output was 653,800 tons, an increase of 28,000 tons from the previous week. The profit of coking enterprises was repaired, and the inventory decreased. However, some coking enterprises in some regions received production restriction notices, and the supply was expected to be restricted. The coke spot at ports was stable and slightly stronger, and the inventory decreased slightly [6] - **Demand**: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.58%, a decrease of 0.16% from the previous week, and the daily pig iron output was 2.4066 million tons, an increase of 3,400 tons from the previous week. The profitability of steel mills decreased slightly but remained good. The rigid demand for coke remained, but the demand was mainly on - demand in the short term [6] 3. Inventory - **Coking Coal**: The total inventory of coking coal was 20.3817 million tons, a decrease of 357,500 tons from the previous week, including a decrease of 218,500 tons at ports, 110,400 tons at full - sample independent coking plants, and 28,600 tons at 247 sample steel mills [8] - **Coke**: The total inventory of coke was 8.8742 million tons, a decrease of 197,400 tons from the previous week, including a decrease of 30,400 tons at ports, 72,200 tons at full - sample independent coking plants, and 94,800 tons at 247 sample steel mills [8]

财达期货｜股指期货周报 行情回顾: 上周四个股指期货品种继续呈现高位整理格局，其中沪深 300 与中证 500 调整幅度相对较大。四个股指期货品种基差大部分仍 为期货贴水模式。期指主力合约期货-现货基差，IH 收于 0.27，IF 收于-25.33，IC 收于-109.20，IM 收于-127.67。 投资咨询号： 上周 A 股市场以高位调整为主基调，伴随着量能的收缩以及高 位的获利兑现压力，下周继续下跌的可能性较大。上周板块已经出 现了高低切换，金融行业淡出了涨幅榜，相对低位的医药和教育行 业补涨，中药板块近 3 日涨幅 3.94%，教育板块近 3 日涨幅 2.33%。 整体看，指数运行正在向下运行，下行过程中抵抗性板块可能有潜 力。 综合分析： 姓名：李津文 从业资格号： F0244287 高位调整，板块切换 研究员 财达期货｜股指期货周报 2025-8-4 Z0012495 展望下周，政策面上政治局会议释放多项重磅信号。会议对外 部形势的判断有所缓和。宏观政策方面，会议强调落实落细更加积 极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策。结构政策方面，扩内需政策 更加强调支持"服务消费"和推动"两重"建设，而"反内卷" ...

财达期货｜铜周报 2025-8-4 宏观方面，7 月美联储利率会议决定不降息，符合市场预期，但会后声明 叠加后续公布的非农就业数据不及预期使得市场对 9 月降息预期升温。美国 总统特朗普签署公告宣布对自 8 月 1 日起对进口半成品铜产品及铜密集型衍 生产品征收 50%的关税，铜输入原料（例如铜矿石、精矿、锍铜、阴极铜和 阳极铜）和铜废料不受关税约束，消息发布后 COMEX 铜暴跌，LME 铜小幅 跟跌。中美贸易谈判双方同意继续推动已暂停的美方对等关税 24%部分如期 展期 90 天，但并未达成新的突破性协议。 总的来看，原料紧张及库存低位能够为铜价提供下跌的支撑，但目前整 体仍处淡季，无明显上行动能。市场仍等待美国与未达成贸易协议国家的谈 判结果，不确定性较高压制铜价，预计短期受宏观影响铜价仍震荡偏弱走势。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 第 1页共 3页 财达期货｜铜周报 铜价短期震荡偏弱 F3084967 Z0018883 供需方面，部分冶炼厂仍面临亏损状态，加工费维持负数区间。上周漆 包线行业订单整体平稳，周尾受铜价下行带动，新增订单环比增长 1.68 个百 分点，推动开机率小幅回升至 78.2%。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The probability of a Fed rate cut in September has increased significantly, causing the gold price to strengthen again. If the Fed restarts the rate - cut channel, the gold price will return to a bull market in the medium and long term, but it is in a box - oscillation pattern in the short term [1][6] - Trump's tariff policies may lead to a stagflation effect, and the optimistic sentiment in the market about the impact of these policies on the economy is fading [2][4] - The weakening of the July non - farm payrolls data has increased the possibility of a Fed rate cut in September, and the probability has risen from 40% to 75%. Trump is angry about the non - farm data and blames the Bureau of Labor Statistics [5] 3. Summary by Related Content Gold Price Performance - Last week, the international gold price rebounded to $3416 per ounce, and the Shanghai gold price rebounded to 781 yuan per gram. Affected by the poor non - farm payrolls data on Friday, the gold price rose again [1][6] Fed Interest Rate Policy - At the July FOMC meeting, the Fed kept the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50%, the fifth time since early 2025. There were two dissenting votes, indicating deepening internal differences. Fed Chair Powell said future policy adjustments depend on all evidence, and his speech was considered hawkish [1] Trump's Tariff Policies - Trump imposed additional tariffs of 10% - 41% on imports from multiple countries and regions. These tariffs may penetrate into economic data in the coming months and cause a stagflation effect [3][4] Non - farm Payrolls Data - In July, non - farm employment increased by only 73,000, far lower than the expected 100,000, and the data for the previous two months was revised down by 258,000. The three - month growth rate was as low as 35,000. The unemployment rate remained at 4.2%, and the average hourly wage rose 0.3% month - on - month. The weakening of the employment market has increased the probability of a Fed rate cut in September [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The signals released by the 7.30 meeting fell short of expectations, causing significant short - term adjustments in the screw and ore futures markets. The short - term demand for rebar is affected by seasonality and has weakened, with inventory slightly increasing. After the policy expectations are fulfilled, the short - term driving logic of rebar may return to fundamentals, and the short - term futures market is expected to be weak under technical adjustments and off - season pressure. - The short - term import ore shipping volume has increased slightly, and the arrival volume is expected to gradually increase in the future. The port inventory will face certain pressure. On the demand side, the daily average molten iron volume continues to decrease slightly, and the steel mill's daily consumption has also declined. Steel mills continue the replenishment strategy in the short term. It is expected that the short - term iron ore futures market will follow the rebar trend and remain weak [4][6][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Rebar - **Futures**: The rebar 10 contract adjusted significantly under the reduction of long - position main force. As of Friday, it closed at 3203 yuan/ton, down 153 yuan from last week, a weekly decline of 4.56% [4]. - **Spot**: The prices of mainstream rebar regions generally decreased significantly, and the overall trading weakened. As of Friday, the national average rebar price dropped 76 yuan to 3395 yuan/ton, with different price drops in various regions [4]. - **Fundamentals** - **Supply**: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills in the country was 83.46%, unchanged from the previous week and up 2.18% year - on - year; the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 90.24%, down 0.57% from the previous week and up 1.37% year - on - year; the average operating rate of 90 electric furnace steel mills in the country was 74.21%, up 2.18% from the previous week and up 12.75% year - on - year; the average electric furnace capacity utilization rate was 57.05%, up 1.56% from the previous week and up 15.11% year - on - year. The weekly rebar output decreased by 0.9 tons to 211.06 tons, still at a low level year - on - year [4]. - **Short - process steel mills**: The estimated cost of electric furnaces in East China is 3215 yuan, down 15 yuan from the previous week. The electric furnace profit of rebar is a loss of 145 yuan, with the loss narrowing by 5 yuan from last week. The operating rate and capacity utilization rate of electric furnaces in the country continued to rise, with a slightly narrower increase [4]. - **Long - process steel mills**: The estimated cost of crude steel in East China is 2817 yuan, up 11 yuan from the previous week. The blast furnace profit of rebar is 253 yuan, narrowing by 21 yuan from last week. The domestic blast furnace operating rate did not change significantly, while the capacity utilization rate continued to decrease slightly. With the implementation of policy expectations, the price decline of finished products was more significant than that of raw materials, and the fourth round of coke price increase was implemented, resulting in a slight contraction of long - process steel mill profits [4]. - **Demand and Inventory** - **Demand**: The building materials trading volume and rebar apparent consumption both decreased slightly. The 5 - day average building materials trading volume decreased by 0.99 tons to 10.02 tons, and the rebar apparent consumption decreased by 13.17 tons to 203.41 tons, still at a low level in the same period [7]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products and rebar began to accumulate slightly. As of Friday, the total rebar inventory increased by 7.65 tons to 546.29 tons, still at a low level in the same period; the social rebar inventory increased by 11.17 tons to 384.14 tons, and the factory inventory decreased by 3.52 tons to 162.15 tons [7]. - **Basis**: As of Friday, the lowest warehouse receipt quotation for rebar in Shanghai was 3360 yuan/ton, with a premium of 157 yuan over the rebar 10 contract, widening by 83 yuan from last week. The rebar basis is near the average, and it is expected that the rebar basis is more likely to continue to widen [7]. - **Comprehensive Judgment**: The short - term rebar futures market is expected to be weak under technical adjustments and off - season pressure [7]. Iron Ore - **Futures**: The iron ore 09 contract continued the adjustment trend under the reduction of long - position main force. As of Friday, it closed at 783.0 yuan/ton, down 19.5 yuan/ton from last week, a weekly decline of 2.43% [7]. - **Spot**: The prices of mainstream imported ore varieties generally decreased slightly, while the prices of domestic iron concentrate began to decline steadily. The overall trading was average [7]. - **Fundamentals** - **Supply**: As of July 28, the total shipping volume of Australian and Brazilian iron ore was 2755.9 tons, an increase of 203.9 tons from the previous week. The shipping volume from Australia was 1859.6 tons, an increase of 230.2 tons, and the volume shipped to China was 1550.4 tons, an increase of 106.8 tons. The shipping volume from Brazil was 896.4 tons, a decrease of 26.2 tons. The 45 - port arrival volume was 2240.5 tons, a decrease of 130.7 tons; the arrival volume at six northern ports was 1157.3 tons, a decrease of 231.9 tons [9]. - **Demand**: The current daily average port clearance volume of 45 ports is 302.71 tons, a decrease of 12.44 tons from the previous week; the weekly average trading volume of port - spot iron ore is 96.64 tons, an increase of 0.6 tons; the daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills is 240.71 tons, a decrease of 1.52 tons from last week and an increase of 4.09 tons compared to last year; the daily consumption of imported ore by 247 steel mills is 299.46 tons, a decrease of 1.65 tons [9]. - **Inventory**: As of August 1, the 45 - port iron ore inventory began to decrease slightly, currently at 13657.90 tons, a decrease of 132.48 tons. The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills is 9012.09 tons, an increase of 126.87 tons [9]. - **Basis**: As of Friday, the Newman powder at Qingdao Port, the optimal delivery product, was 807 yuan/ton, with a premium of 24 yuan over the continuous iron 10 contract, widening by 5 yuan from last week. The iron ore basis is at the average level, and it is expected that the iron ore basis is more likely to continue to widen [9]. - **Comprehensive Judgment**: The short - term iron ore futures market is expected to follow the rebar trend and remain weak [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The short - term price of live pigs has some support, but it is still under pressure later; the corn price is supported in the short - term but has limited upside space with pressure on the upper side of the market and may fluctuate at a low level in the short - term [5][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Live Pigs - Last week, the live pig futures showed a weak trend. The LH2509 contract closed at 14,055 yuan/ton, a 2.63% drop from the previous week's settlement price. The national average market price of outer ternary live pigs was 14.26 yuan/kg, a week - on - week decrease of 0.55 yuan/kg. As of August 1st, the self - breeding and self - raising profit was 43.85 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 18.31 yuan/head; the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 116.78 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 45.39 yuan/head; the pig - grain ratio was 5.93, a week - on - week decrease of 0.09 [5] - The national live pig spot market first declined and then stabilized last week. In the short term, downstream consumption has no obvious positive factors, and the demand boost is limited. At the beginning of the month, the enterprise's slaughter pressure weakens, and the breeding end mainly controls the quantity and stabilizes the price. After continuous market decline, second - fattening inquiries have started in some areas, providing short - term support for live pig prices. However, as breeding enterprises resume slaughter, live pig prices are still expected to be under pressure [5] Corn - Last week, the corn futures fluctuated weakly. The C2509 contract closed at 2,297 yuan/ton, a 0.73% drop from the previous week's settlement price. The national average spot price of corn was 2,402.75 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 5.09 yuan/ton. Port prices in some areas showed a slight decline [6] - From July 24th to July 31st, 2025, 149 major corn deep - processing enterprises consumed 1.1377 million tons of corn, a week - on - week increase of 75,300 tons. The processing volume of corn starch enterprises was 545,100 tons, an increase of 43,600 tons from the previous week; the weekly national corn starch output was 267,800 tons, an increase of 32,600 tons from the previous week; the weekly operating rate was 51.76%, a 6.3% increase from the previous week. The operating rate of the DDGS industry increased, with the weekly output increasing by 8.20% [7] - As of July 30th, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 3.797 million tons, a decrease of 5.19%. As of August 1st, the total corn inventory of the four northern ports was about 2.06 million tons, and the corn inventory in Guangdong ports was 830,000 tons [7][8] - The national corn spot market first rose and then fell last week. The remaining grain inventory decreased significantly year - on - year, providing short - term supply support for corn prices. However, it is rumored that the directional rice auction may resume in August, which will help ease the tight supply of the corn market and limit the upside space of corn prices. The market is under pressure on the upper side and may fluctuate at a low level in the short term [8]

反内卷预期降温，双焦期价大幅下跌 【期现行情】 财达期货｜焦煤焦炭周报 2025-08-04 上周焦煤 2601 合约周五收于 1092.5，周跌幅 17.14%，现货市场主流地区报价 暂稳运行。 研究员 姓名：申伟光 上周焦炭 2509 合约周五收于 1585，周跌幅 10.1%，现货市场主流地区报价提 涨 50-55 元/吨落地。 从 业 资 格 号 ： 【基本面分析】 F03088716 投 资 咨 询 号 ： 焦煤： 供应端：上周全国 523 家炼焦煤矿山核定产能利用率 86.3%，环比下降 0.6%。 全国 110 家洗煤厂开工率 61.51%，环比下降 0.8%；日均产量 52.14 万吨，环比减 少 0.01 万吨。因强降雨天气影响而多被迫停产、减产的煤矿上周逐渐恢复生产， 因主产区受暴雨影响程度不同而复产进度存在显著差异，同时近期严查超产及安环 检查影响煤矿恢复缓慢，煤矿洗煤厂开工率下滑。由于市场情绪较好，独立洗煤厂 市场开工率有所提升。库存方面，由于市场情绪好转之后，出货顺畅，虽然上周市 场情绪有所转弱，但影响较小，库存仍以向下游转移为主。洗煤厂原煤及精煤库存 延续去库。 需求端：上周，焦炭 ...

Report Summary 1. Market Performance - Last week, the gold price soared and then dropped significantly. The New York gold price fell back to $3,338 per ounce, and the Shanghai gold price dropped to 773 yuan per gram [3] 2. Interest Rate Expectations - On July 24, Trump met with Fed Chairman Powell to discuss interest rates. Powell and most Fed policymakers have been cautious about rate cuts due to concerns about the lagged impact of Trump's tariff hikes on inflation [4] - According to the CME "FedWatch" tool, the market expects a 95.9% probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in July and a 58.4% probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in September. Traders expect the Fed to cut rates more aggressively next year, with a projected 76 - basis - point cut [4] 3. Tariff Situation - Trump said he would impose simple tariffs of 15% to 50% on most other countries but would be willing to abandon the tariff clause if major countries open their markets to the US. He also mentioned sending nearly 200 tariff letters and reaching tariff agreements with Japan and the EU (15% tariff on the EU) [7] - Overall, Trump's tariff war has less impact than expected, and the market has adapted. The US stock market has continued to rise, and the risk - aversion sentiment has declined [7] 4. Economic Data - As of the week ending July 19, the number of initial jobless claims in the US decreased by 4,000 to 217,000, falling for the sixth consecutive week, the longest consecutive decline since 2022. This reduces the urgency for the Fed to cut rates in the short term, causing the US dollar index to rebound and putting pressure on the gold price [7] 5. Geopolitical Situation - Sino - US relations have eased, and the impact of the global tariff war has weakened. The new conflict between Thailand and Cambodia has limited impact on the financial market due to their small economic scale and the possibility of peace talks [7] 6. Market Outlook - Risk - assets such as the stock market are favored again, and the risk - aversion sentiment has declined, putting pressure on the gold price. The gold price on the weekly chart has soared and then dropped significantly, lacking upward momentum in the short term and returning to a box - consolidation pattern [7]

财达期货｜螺纹钢、铁矿石 周报 财达期货｜螺纹钢、铁矿石 周报 2025-07-28 反内卷政策持续发酵，螺矿盘面走势开始分化 【螺纹钢】 研究员 Z0017173 长流程钢厂：目前华东地区粗钢测算成本 2806 元，环比增加 77 元，螺纹 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 第 1 页 共 9 页 姓名：薛国鹏 F3073406 期货方面：本周螺纹 10 合约在空头主力减仓驱动下延续反弹走势。截止周 五，螺纹 10 合约收于 3356 元/吨，环比上周上涨 209.0 元，周 涨幅 6.64%。 从 业 资 格 号 ： 现货方面：本周螺纹主流地区价格普遍出现大幅上调，整体成交小幅转好。 截止周五，全国螺纹平均报价上调 2152 元至 3471 元/吨；其中 上海地区螺纹价格上调 180 元至 3430 元/吨；杭州地区螺纹价 格上调 200 元至 3490 元/吨；北京地区螺纹价格上调 170 元至 3360 元/吨；天津地区螺纹价格上调 180 元至 3380 元/吨；广州 地区螺纹价格上调 120 元至 3490 元/吨。 投 资 咨 询 号 ： 基 本 面：供给方面：全国 247 家钢厂高炉开工率 8 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Despite positive domestic macro - policies, market sentiment remains cautious in the short - term due to upcoming Sino - US negotiations. Low domestic inventory limits the decline of copper prices, but the overall situation is one of weak supply and demand expectations. Short - term copper prices are expected to show a volatile trend, pending the progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Supply and Demand - Domestic spot TC stabilizes at a low level of - 43. Japanese smelters are having difficult negotiations with Antofagasta on processing fees and cannot accept the extremely low conditions reached by Chinese smelters and Antofagasta. Domestic enterprise operating rates are declining, and the spot market is sluggish due to high prices. Last week, the copper rod operating rate was 69.4%, a 4.9% week - on - week decrease, and the copper cable enterprise operating rate was 70.83%, a 2.0% week - on - week decrease. Copper price increases suppress purchasing sentiment, and orders decrease in the off - season. Enterprises mainly rely on previous long - term orders to maintain operations, and the operating rate is expected to decline slightly this week [4] 2. Inventory - Domestic inventory is being depleted. The domestic electrolytic copper social inventory is 11.4 tons, a 20.3% week - on - week decrease [4] 3. Macro - environment - On July 25, the National Bureau of Statistics announced that the manufacturing PMI in July rebounded to 49.8%, rising for two consecutive months, and the production index reached 51.7%. The National Development and Reform Commission issued the third batch of 69 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds to local areas last week to support the replacement of old consumer goods with new ones. The US plan to impose tariffs on copper is approaching on August 1, and market trading is cautious. US Treasury Secretary Bessent announced that China and the US will hold a new round of trade negotiations in Stockholm, Sweden, on Monday and Tuesday [4] 4. Market Trends - Last week, the main contract of Shanghai copper first rose and then fell. At the beginning of the week, it continued the upward trend driven by the macro news from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology on the previous Friday, and declined slightly in the second half of the week. The closing price on Friday was 79,250 yuan/ton, about 1% higher than the previous week [6]