Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the four stock index futures varieties showed continuous upward trends, with relatively large increases in CSI 500 and CSI 1000. The depth of the basis discount of the four stock index futures varieties narrowed, and most of the main contracts maintained the futures discount mode. The A-share market had a continuous upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a 10 - year high with 16 consecutive positive days and a weekly increase of nearly 4%. The Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index also rose, showing bull - market characteristics. The continuous growth of trading volume and the increase in investment risk preference are positive signals. The medium - term upward space has opened, and the market has many hotspots, mainly following the technology growth and pro - cyclical mainlines. In terms of heavy - weight stocks, there was obvious inflow of incremental funds in the non - ferrous and securities sectors, and the military and technology sectors remained active, with the AI industry chain and application segments taking turns to drive the market [3]. - In December 2025, the PPI performance slightly exceeded market expectations, with a month - on - month increase of +0.2%, the highest since 2024, driven by the over - increase in the prices of non - ferrous metals such as copper, aluminum, and silver. The CPI increased year - on - year for four consecutive months to +0.8%, and the core CPI year - on - year remained at a high level of +1.2%, basically in line with market expectations. Overseas, in December 2025, the number of new non - farm jobs and the unemployment rate in the US were both lower than expected, with the unemployment rate dropping to 4.4% and new non - farm jobs concentrated in some service industries. The early - year market rally was due to the concentrated entry of funds that missed the year - end market, and the chasing of rising prices by some previously cautious funds accelerated the market trend. However, the rally mainly occurred in theme sectors and small - cap stocks with significant quantitative influence, rather than the allocation direction of institutional funds [4][5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - Last week, the four stock index futures varieties mainly showed continuous upward trends, with relatively large increases in CSI 500 and CSI 1000. The basis discount of the four stock index futures varieties narrowed, and most main contracts were in the futures discount mode. The futures - spot basis of the main contracts of stock index futures were: IH at 0.48, IF at - 15.12, IC at - 18.89, and IM at - 80.78. The A - share market had a continuous upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a 10 - year high with 16 consecutive positive days and a weekly increase of nearly 4%. The Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index also rose, and the trading volume continuously increased, indicating an increase in investment risk preference. The medium - term upward space has opened, and the market hotspots mainly follow the technology growth and pro - cyclical mainlines. In terms of heavy - weight stocks, there was obvious inflow of incremental funds in the non - ferrous and securities sectors, and the military and technology sectors remained active, with the AI industry chain and application segments taking turns to drive the market [3]. Comprehensive Analysis - In December 2025, the PPI performance slightly exceeded market expectations, with a month - on - month increase of +0.2%, the highest since 2024, driven by the over - increase in the prices of non - ferrous metals such as copper, aluminum, and silver. The CPI increased year - on - year for four consecutive months to +0.8%, and the core CPI year - on - year remained at a high level of +1.2%, basically in line with market expectations. Overseas, in December 2025, the number of new non - farm jobs and the unemployment rate in the US were both lower than expected, with the unemployment rate dropping to 4.4% and new non - farm jobs concentrated in some service industries. The early - year market rally was due to the concentrated entry of funds that missed the year - end market, and the chasing of rising prices by some previously cautious funds accelerated the market trend. However, the rally mainly occurred in theme sectors and small - cap stocks with significant quantitative influence, rather than the allocation direction of institutional funds [4][5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, the bullish sentiment cooled and the price of copper futures pulled back, but there was still support at the supply - demand and macro levels. The price rebounded in the night session yesterday, and the trend is expected to remain in high - level oscillation. The Mysteel China copper market sentiment survey on January 9, 2026 was 50.91, down 8.97 from last week, and the price fluctuation may decrease this week [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog Market Review - Last week, the price of the main Shanghai copper futures showed a pattern of rising first and then falling, with a fluctuation range of about 2.4%. The price fluctuation was mainly driven by the global copper supply - demand imbalance and macro - sentiment changes, and market sentiment was an important factor intensifying the price fluctuation [4]. Supply - Demand Situation - The spot TC price of copper concentrate decreased slightly, and the processing fee was under continuous pressure. Recently, market participants have been engaged in a game around long - term contract negotiations. The workers at the Mantoverde copper mine under Capstone in Chile failed to reach a collective bargaining agreement, and the strike continued, reducing the mine's output to 30% of the normal level. Last week, the operating rates of domestic copper rod and copper cable enterprises decreased by 1.01 and 2.37 percentage points respectively compared with the previous week. In terms of absolute consumption demand, the market orders have continued to weaken recently, and the trading volumes of electrolytic copper and refined copper rods in the small - sample statistics of Mysteel are at historical lows. After the rapid rise in the past two days, some small downstream processing enterprises have begun to plan their annual leave arrangements and suspend production and sales from late January to March. After the holiday, the domestic social inventory continued to show an obvious trend of accumulation [4]. Macro - situation - Geopolitical turmoil and Trump's tariff policy on refined copper have caused significant price fluctuations. In terms of data, the number of new non - farm jobs in the US in December was 50,000, falling short of expectations, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.4%, with the annual increase being the lowest since 2020. Traders expect almost no possibility of an interest rate cut in January. China's CPI year - on - year increase in December reached a 34 - month high, with a month - on - month increase of 0.2%, and the PPI increased month - on - month for three consecutive months [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand game in the pig market continues, and after a phased rebound, pig prices are expected to fluctuate and adjust. The corn market price is also in a state of oscillating adjustment, and the disk should maintain a short - term trading mindset [5][8] 3. Summary by Category Pig Market - **Futures and Spot Prices**: Last week, the pig futures rose first and then fell. The LH2603 contract closed at 11,770 yuan/ton, a 0.04% decrease from the previous week's settlement price. The national average price of live pigs of the outer ternary breed was 12.45 yuan/kg, a week - on - week increase of 0.21 yuan/ton [5] - **Profit Situation**: As of January 9, the self - breeding and self - raising pig farming profit was - 11.54 yuan/head, a week - on - week increase of 23.05 yuan/head; the profit from purchasing piglets for farming was - 2.31 yuan/head, a week - on - week increase of 46.04 yuan/head; the pig - grain ratio was 5.46, a week - on - week increase of 0.09 [5] - **Regional Market Performance**: The northern region saw a slowdown in the slaughter rhythm of enterprises at the beginning of the month, and leading group farms reduced supply and held prices, resulting in relatively strong pig prices. In the southern region, market supply did not decrease, and after the festival effect faded, demand support was weak, so pig prices were adjusted slightly downward [5] - **Supply and Demand Outlook**: Currently, there is no significant change in the supply side. Farmers' willingness to hold prices is strong, and local second - fattening is relatively active, reducing the supply of market - ready pigs. On the demand side, with the drop in temperature, terminal consumption has certain positive support. However, as the supply - demand pattern gradually turns to a looser state, pig prices are expected to fluctuate and adjust after a phased rebound [5] Corn Market - **Futures and Spot Prices**: Last week, corn futures fluctuated strongly. The C2603 contract closed at 2,263 yuan/ton, a 1.53% increase from the previous week's settlement price. The national average spot price of corn was 2,351.86 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 4.22 yuan/ton. Port prices generally showed an upward trend [6] - **Deep - processing Consumption**: From January 1 to January 7, 2026, 149 major corn deep - processing enterprises across the country consumed a total of 1.3817 million tons of corn, a week - on - week decrease of 0.0011 million tons. The processing volume of corn starch enterprises was 0.6279 million tons, a decrease of 0.0032 million tons from the previous week. The weekly national corn starch output was 0.3248 million tons, a decrease of 0.0027 million tons from the previous week, and the weekly operating rate was 59.37%, a decrease of 0.49% from the previous week. The operating rate of the DDGS industry decreased, and the production volume also decreased [7] - **Inventory Situation**: As of January 7, 2026, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions across the country was 3.54 million tons, with an increase rate of 1.32%. As of January 9, the total corn inventory of the four northern ports was about 1.56 million tons, and the corn inventory at Guangdong Port was 0.8 million tons [7] - **Market Performance and Outlook**: The national corn spot market rose first and then fell last week. In the Northeast region, there was still a phenomenon of farmers being reluctant to sell, and due to weather - affected transportation, the supply speed of grain sources slowed down, and market quotes were relatively strong. In the North China region, prices in some areas were adjusted downward. The overall operating rate of the industry declined slightly, and the operating rate of the alcohol industry continued to decline. The selling progress of corn in the Northeast region has exceeded 50%, and due to the expected shortage of high - quality corn supply, farmers' enthusiasm for selling is not high. The selling progress in the North China region is relatively slow, and downstream enterprises are more cautious in purchasing. The market price is oscillating and adjusting, and the disk has rebounded to the upper edge of the oscillation range, so a short - term trading mindset should be maintained [8]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2) Core View of the Report - The fundamental factors supporting the bull market in gold and silver remain unchanged, and new supporting factors are emerging. After a period of consolidation, the prices of precious metals such as gold and silver are expected to rise again and reach new historical highs [6][7] 3) Summary by Related Content Price Performance - Last week, the prices of gold and silver first declined and then rebounded. By the end of last Friday, the international gold price returned above $4,500 per ounce, and the international silver price returned to $79.7 per ounce [2] Short - term Negative Factors - According to Bloomberg's 2026 weight configuration, the weight of silver will be significantly reduced from the current 9.6% to 3.94%, forcing funds and ETFs tracking the index to sell a large number of silver positions. The CME raised the performance margin for precious metals on January 8, which is the third such notice in nearly a month, having a short - term negative impact on precious metal prices. Before the release of the December 2025 non - farm payroll data, the market was cautious, leading to a short - term pullback in gold and silver prices [3] Impact of Non - farm Payroll Data - The December 2025 non - farm payroll report showed that the number of new jobs added was 50,000, lower than the market expectation of 70,000. The data for November was revised down from 64,000 to 56,000, and the data for October was revised down from a decrease of 105,000 to a decrease of 173,000, with a total downward revision of 76,000 for the two months. The new job growth was the weakest since 2003. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.4%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, the lowest level in 2025, reflecting some resilience in the labor market. However, in 2025, the total number of new jobs added was 584,000, far lower than 2 million in 2024, the weakest increase since 2020. After the release of the report, the probability of a rate cut in January dropped from 10% to nearly 0%, and the probability in March dropped to 30%, with the first expected rate cut postponed to June 2026. Although the non - farm payroll report reduced the short - term probability of a rate cut, gold prices rose instead of falling, indicating that the negative news had been priced in. In the medium term, the weakening of the US job market supports the continuation of the gold and silver bull market [4][5] Fundamental Support - The continuous rise in precious metal prices is supported by fundamentals. The international situation is becoming more volatile, which promotes the rise in gold prices. The supply - demand situation of silver remains tight, and China's restriction on refined silver exports since January 1 may exacerbate the global supply shortage [6][7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bull market of gold and silver is not over yet, and it is likely that the interest rate cut will accelerate in the second half of 2026, which is an important support for the bull market [3] - Before the new Fed Chairman takes office in May 2026, the gold and silver market should not have major problems. However, if the interest rate cut is less than expected after the new chairman takes office, there may be significant fluctuations or even a turning point [5] 3. Summary by Related Contents 3.1 Market Performance of Precious Metals - In the week before the holiday, the precious metal market experienced a roller - coaster ride. The silver price once rose by more than 10% in a single day, reaching $79 per ounce, with a year - to - date increase of more than 150%. The domestic silver price also rose significantly. It had a large intraday amplitude, with a sharp drop in the afternoon after a sharp rise on Monday, a quick rebound the next day, and a significant decline again on the last trading day before New Year's Day [1] - During the New Year's Day holiday, the international market resumed trading on January 2nd, and both gold and silver prices rebounded slightly [1] - Currently, the international silver price is in a high - level shock consolidation state. It has formed an ascending triangle consolidation pattern, with the 10 - day moving average providing support. The gold price is weaker than the silver price but is also supported by the 20 - day moving average, maintaining a slow upward trend [5] 3.2 Fed Interest Rate Expectations - The Fed's December meeting minutes showed that policymakers had significant differences on whether inflation or unemployment posed a greater risk to the US economy. Most officials believed that the labor market risk was still downward, while inflation risk was upward. They also thought that further interest rate cuts might be appropriate in the future if new data supported the expected gradual decline of inflation [1] - According to CME "FedWatch", the probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed in January 2026 is 14.9%, and the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 85.1%. The probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in March is 45.2%, and the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 48.3% [1] - It is estimated that there will be at most one interest rate cut before Powell leaves office in May, and the market has basically digested this expectation. The key is whether the new Fed Chairman after May will implement a cliff - like interest rate cut as Trump wishes, which remains highly uncertain [2][3] - If the economic situation, employment, and inflation do not change significantly from the current situation, especially if inflation does not rebound significantly, it is likely that the interest rate cut will accelerate in the second half of 2026 [3] 3.3 International Geopolitical Events - During the New Year's Day holiday, Venezuelan President Maduro was arrested by the US, which is expected to have a short - term impact on oil and gold prices [4] - Ukraine launched a fierce attack on the Kherson region, and Russia carried out large - scale retaliatory strikes on Ukrainian military enterprises and related energy facilities. The Russia - Ukraine situation has fallen into great uncertainty again [4]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The national live - hog spot price has shifted upwards before the festival, but there is still an expectation of weakening after the festival due to supply - demand dynamics [5]. - The corn market is in a state of supply - demand game in the short term, and the futures market should be treated with a short - term trading mindset [8]. 3. Summary by Commodity Live - hog - Futures: Last week, the live - hog futures opened slightly higher. The LH2603 contract closed at 11,795 yuan/ton, up 1.81% from the previous week's settlement price [5]. - Spot: The national average price of outer three - yuan live hogs was 12.24 yuan/kg, up 0.61 yuan/ton week - on - week. As of January 2nd, the self - breeding and self - raising profit was - 34.59 yuan/head, a week - on - week increase of 95.52 yuan/head; the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 48.35 yuan/head, a week - on - week increase of 114.35 yuan/head; the pig - grain ratio was 5.37, up 0.35 week - on - week [5]. - Market trend: Before the festival, the supply decreased and the market was active, with strong price - holding sentiment. After the festival, the supply pressure is limited at the beginning of the month, but the supply - demand situation may lead to a weakening price [5]. Corn - Futures: Last week, the corn futures rose and then fell. The C2603 contract closed at 2,226 yuan/ton, up 0.82% from the previous week's settlement price [6]. - Spot: The national average spot price of corn was 2,351.57 yuan/ton, up 12.94 yuan/ton week - on - week. Port prices showed different trends, with some remaining flat and some falling [6]. - Consumption: From December 25th to 31st, 2025, 149 major corn deep - processing enterprises consumed 138.28 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.41 tons. The processing volume, production, and operating rates of corn starch and corn alcohol enterprises all decreased [7]. - Inventory: As of December 31st, 2025, the total inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 349.4 tons, with an increase of 3.43% [7]. - Market trend: The spot price was stable with a slight upward trend. The selling pace of farmers slowed down, but the continuous auction of imported corn supplemented the supply. Deep - processing enterprises had inventory replenishment needs but limited purchasing power for high - priced corn, resulting in a supply - demand game [8].

Report Summary 1. Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The macro - economic indicators show strong resilience, combined with positive policy expectations and the trend of capital inflow, which form the supporting force for stock index futures. After the holiday, as market liquidity returns and policy benefits further ferment, the risk appetite of the stock market is expected to continue to rise [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents Market Review - Last week, the four stock index futures varieties showed an oscillatory consolidation trend, with relatively large adjustment ranges for the Shanghai 50 and CSI 300. The basis discount depth of the four stock index futures varieties deepened, and all the main contracts maintained a futures discount mode. The futures - spot basis of the main contracts were IH at - 6.1, IF at - 30.1, IC at - 102.8, and IM at - 159.1 [4]. - The A - share market as a whole oscillated and consolidated last week. Although the Shanghai Composite Index failed to extend its nine - day consecutive rise, the overall market performance remained stable. The commercial aerospace sector, where funds were most concentrated, had a significant adjustment but maintained good order. The emerging robot sector did not have a very negative impact on the commercial aerospace sector. The non - ferrous metals sector opened lower due to short - term sharp fluctuations in futures but quickly recovered and some leading varieties hit new highs. Market hotspots were spreading rather than simply switching, and the trading volume remained above 2 trillion for three consecutive days, indicating substantial support from trading volume [4]. Comprehensive Analysis - In terms of macro - economy, the manufacturing PMI in December was 50.1%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, rising to the expansion range [5]. - Overseas, on January 3, 2026 (local time), the US military launched a military strike on Venezuela, which had limited impact on the equity market and commodities in the short term [6].

财达期货｜股指期货周报 财达期货｜股指期货周报 2025-12-29 Z0012495 连续小阳，量能温和 行情回顾: 从业资格号： 上周四个股指期货品种走势以震荡上行为主，其中上中证1000 和中证 500 的涨幅相对较大。四个股指期货品种基差贴水深度有所 收窄，但大部分主力合约仍保持期货贴水模式。期指主力合约期货 -现货基差，IH 收于 6.00，IF 收于-18.84，IC 收于-70.84，IM 收 于-133.13。 投资咨询号： 上周 A 股市场整体呈现震荡上行态势，上证指数实现八连阳逼 近 4000 点整数关口，深成指表现更为强劲。全周成交金额放量明 显，显示资金在反弹中的活跃度有所提升。板块方面继续分化，市 场结构性特征显著，有色金属板块领涨，受益于全球大宗商品价格 走强及国内供需的改善。电力设备、锂电池中上游材料股表现亮眼， 主要受相关锂品种期货价格创新高等利好刺激。商业航天全周反复 活跃，海南自贸区域概念轮番表现，银行板块则小幅调整。个股层 面全周个股涨跌与指数收阳形成对比，显示资金调仓换股迹象明 显。年末机构结算需求及为 2026 年布局考量，加剧了市场波动。 研究员 姓名：李津文 F0 ...

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The short - term rebound of rebar and iron ore faces significant pressure, and attention should be paid to the intensity of the marginal weakening of supply and demand [2]. Group 3: Summary of Rebar Section Futures - This week, the rebar 05 contract maintained a narrow - range consolidation trend driven by the long - position main force increasing and then reducing positions. As of Friday, it closed at 3118 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [3]. Spot - This week, the mainstream rebar prices in major regions started to decline slightly, with average trading volume. As of Friday, the national average rebar price dropped by 8 yuan to 3316 yuan/ton, with prices in different regions showing varying changes [3]. Fundamentals - **Supply**: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills nationwide was 78.32%, a 0.15% week - on - week decrease and a 0.39% year - on - year decrease; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 84.94%, a 0.01% week - on - week increase and a 0.61% year - on - year decrease. The average operating rate of 90 electric - arc furnace steel mills was 67.63%, a 1.6% week - on - week decrease and a 1.25% year - on - year decrease; the average capacity utilization rate of electric arc furnaces was 53.22%, a 1.12% week - on - week decrease and a 0.77% year - on - year increase. The weekly rebar output increased by 2.71 tons to 184.39 tons, still at a low level compared to the same period [3]. - **Short - process steel mills**: The estimated cost of electric arc furnaces in East China was 3159 yuan, a decrease of 8 yuan week - on - week. The profit of rebar electric arc furnaces was a loss of 149 yuan, with the loss narrowing by 18 yuan compared to last week. The operating rate and capacity utilization rate of electric arc furnaces nationwide decreased slightly this week [3]. - **Long - process steel mills**: The estimated cost of crude steel in East China was 2925 yuan, a decrease of 31 yuan week - on - week. The profit of rebar blast furnaces was 85 yuan, an increase of 41 yuan compared to last week. The domestic blast furnace operating rate continued to decline slightly this week, and with the third round of coke price cuts implemented, the profit of long - process steel mills continued to expand slightly [3]. - **Demand**: This week, both the building material trading volume and the apparent consumption of rebar decreased slightly. The 5 - day average trading volume of building materials decreased by 0.43 tons to 9.42 tons week - on - week, and the apparent consumption of rebar decreased by 5.96 tons to 202.68 tons week - on - week. In absolute terms, the apparent consumption of rebar remained at a low level compared to the same period [4]. Inventory - This week, the inventories of five major steel products and rebar continued to decline. As of Friday, the total rebar inventory decreased by 18.29 tons to 434.25 tons, still at a low level compared to the same period. The social rebar inventory decreased by 18.81 tons to 294.19 tons, while the factory inventory increased by 0.52 tons to 140.06 tons [6]. Basis - As of Friday, the lowest warehouse - receipt quotation for rebar in Tianjin was 3220 yuan/ton, with a premium of 102 yuan over the rebar 05 contract, a contraction of 9 yuan compared to last week. Currently, the rebar basis is above the average, and it is expected that the rebar basis will likely contract in the future [6]. Comprehensive Judgment - As some steel mills complete their maintenance, the decline in the output of five major steel products has gradually narrowed in the short term, with rebar output increasing slightly for two consecutive weeks. On the demand side, the apparent consumption of rebar has started to decline slightly in the short term, and the rate of rebar inventory reduction has started to narrow. Attention should be paid to the pressure of seasonal demand weakening in the future. Overall, the short - term rebound of rebar faces significant pressure, and the rebound height depends on the intensity of steel mill maintenance and production restrictions and the decline in terminal demand [6]. Group 4: Summary of Iron Ore Section Futures - This week, the iron ore 05 contract maintained a relatively strong consolidation trend driven by the long - position main force increasing positions. As of Friday, it closed at 783.0 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.0 yuan/ton week - on - week, with a growth rate of 0.38% [6]. Spot - This week, the prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties generally increased slightly, and the prices of domestic iron ore concentrates continued to rise steadily, with average trading volume. The prices of different iron ore varieties in different ports showed varying changes [6]. Fundamentals - **Supply**: As of the 22nd, the total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2814.7 tons, a decrease of 150.8 tons week - on - week. The Australian shipments were 1950.6 tons, a decrease of 102.0 tons week - on - week, and the shipments from Australia to China were 1694.5 tons, a decrease of 7.6 tons week - on - week. The Brazilian shipments were 864.1 tons, a decrease of 48.8 tons week - on - week. In absolute terms, the iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil remained at a medium - to - high level compared to the same period. The total arrivals at 45 ports were 2646.7 tons, a decrease of 76.7 tons week - on - week; the total arrivals at six northern ports were 1256.4 tons, a decrease of 102.1 tons week - on - week. In absolute terms, the iron ore arrivals at 45 ports remained at a high level compared to the same period [6]. - **Demand**: Currently, the daily average port clearance volume at 45 ports is 315.06 tons, an increase of 1.61 tons week - on - week, remaining at a medium - to - high level compared to the same period. The weekly average trading volume of iron ore port spot was 120.63 tons, an increase of 28.5 tons week - on - week, and has recovered to the average level of the same period. The daily average hot - metal output of 247 steel mills was 226.58 tons, an increase of 0.03 tons week - on - week and a decrease of 1.29 tons compared to last year, and has recovered to a medium - to - high level compared to the same period. The daily consumption of imported iron ore by 247 steel mills was 280.04 tons, a decrease of 0.51 tons week - on - week, remaining at a medium - to - high level compared to the same period [8]. Inventory - As of the 26th, the iron ore inventory at 45 ports continued to accumulate slightly, currently at 15858.66 tons, an increase of 346.03 tons week - on - week, remaining at a medium - to - high level compared to the same period. The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills was 8860.19 tons, an increase of 136.24 tons week - on - week, remaining at a relatively low level compared to the same period [8]. Basis - As of Friday, the best - delivery iron ore at Rizhao Port was 817 yuan/ton, with a premium of 34 yuan over the iron ore 05 contract, an expansion of 1 yuan compared to last week. Currently, the iron ore basis is above the average level. Based on the seasonal trend and the basis regression cycle, it is expected that the iron ore basis will likely contract in the future [8]. Comprehensive Judgment - In the short term, the shipments of imported iron ore have started to decrease slightly, but the arrivals are expected to increase slightly next week, and the port inventory will continue to show an accumulation trend. On the demand side, the daily average hot - metal output has changed little in the short term, the steel mill consumption has decreased slightly, and steel mills have started to replenish their inventories slightly in the short term. Overall, the short - term rebound of iron ore faces significant pressure, and the rebound height depends on the intensity of steel mill maintenance and production restrictions and the decline in terminal demand [8].

财达期货｜贵金属周报 2025-12－29 银价疯狂逼空 短期进入冲顶模式 研究员 上周金银市场继续走高，白银价格再度进入疯狂上涨 模式，特别是上周五纽约银价单日上涨 11%，全周上涨高 达 18%，并创出每盎司 79 美元的历史新高，全年涨幅已高 达 150%，成为全年涨幅最大的期货品种。上期所白银上周 五夜盘也再度大涨超 6%，全年涨幅超 130%。 从业资格号： 投资咨询号： 地缘政治方面，俄乌冲突方面仍在僵持，美国对委内 瑞拉大兵压境，同时又在西方圣诞节期间以反恐为名对尼 日利亚发动攻击。其实，无论是对委内瑞拉还是尼日利亚， 特朗普都是看中了那里的石油和稀土等资源。特朗普对付 不了中国，就捏软柿子，一来向国内展示强硬形象，二来 迎合国内基本盘，利于明年中期选举。 美联储新的人选即将揭晓，特朗普已明言，新的美联 储人选必是一个与其持有相同理念，即明年要加快降息的 人，否则当不了美联储主席。更值得注意的是，特朗普要 对美联储进行大手术，削弱其职能，以后也不再公布利率 展望的点阵图，对通胀的目标将由一个数据改为一个区间。 一句话，降不降息，由总统定夺，美联储所谓独立性将被 姓名：李津文 F0244287 请 ...