Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint of the Report - After the interest rate cut, there may be a short - term price correction due to the realization of positive factors, but it is overall positive for non - ferrous metal prices in the medium term. There are also expectations of favorable policies in China. The supply - side contraction needs time to be transmitted, and the short - term slow recovery in demand and the pre - holiday stockpiling expectation are the main supporting factors. It is expected that copper prices will rebound slightly after a short - term correction and remain range - bound before the holiday [5] Summary According to the Directory 1. Supply and Demand Situation - The Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia remains shut down, and the rescue of seven trapped underground workers is ongoing, intensifying the tight copper ore situation. In September, smelting maintenance increased, and it is expected that the domestic smelting output will decline [4] - Last week, the enameled wire industry showed the characteristics of a slight increase in the operating rate and pressure on new orders. The machine operating rate rose to 77.93%, but the increase was less than expected. The SMM copper cable enterprise operating rate was 65.84%, down both month - on - month and year - on - year and lower than expected. The weekly operating rate of major domestic refined copper rod enterprises rose to 70.49%, up 2.96 percentage points month - on - month, 0.18 percentage points lower than expected, and down 8.83 percentage points year - on - year. It is expected that the operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises will rise to 73.86% this week [4] - Some enterprises in the sample started stockpiling for the National Day holiday production in advance to avoid the increase in raw material prices and costs caused by centralized stockpiling at the end of the month. Near the National Day holiday, refined copper rod enterprises will mainly focus on stockpiling and adjust the production rhythm according to downstream order demand [4] 2. Macroeconomic Situation - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut on Wednesday, which was in line with market expectations. It admitted that the labor market was weakening and mentioned rising inflation. The dot - plot showed that there may be two more interest rate cuts this year [4] 3. Market Review - Last week, the Shanghai copper main contract maintained a narrow - range shock at the beginning of the week. The 25 - basis - point interest rate cut announced by the Federal Reserve was in line with expectations, but the subsequent interest rate cut rhythm was slightly lower than expected. The market declined before and after the interest rate - setting meeting. Copper prices fell significantly on Thursday and stabilized slightly on Friday. The closing price of 79,910 yuan/ton was about 1.42% lower than the previous week [6]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View As the recent raw material prices have strengthened significantly compared to finished product prices, the short - term profitability of steel mills has continued to shrink. The production of five major steel products has decreased significantly due to profit compression and military parade - related production restrictions. Short - term steel apparent demand has also declined, and inventory accumulation has gradually increased. With the gradual release of market pessimism, the futures market has a technical rebound demand. For iron ore, after the release of risks, the short - term futures market is expected to stabilize slightly [5][8][10]. 3. Summary by Category **[A] Steel Rebar** - **Futures**: This week, the rebar 01 contract maintained a narrow - range consolidation trend driven by the increase in short - selling positions of the main players. As of Friday, it closed at 3143 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan from last week, a weekly decline of 0.54% [5]. - **Spot**: This week, the prices of mainstream rebar regions continued to decline slightly, and overall transactions were average. As of Friday, the national average rebar price dropped 39 yuan to 3287 yuan/ton [5]. - **Fundamentals** - **Supply**: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills nationwide was 80.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.80% and a year - on - year increase of 2.77%. The rebar weekly output decreased by 1.88 tons to 218.68 tons, still at a low level year - on - year [5]. - **Demand**: This week, the building material trading volume and the apparent consumption of rebar continued to decline slightly. The 5 - day average building material trading volume decreased by 0.53 tons to 9.11 tons, and the apparent rebar demand decreased by 2.14 tons to 202.07 tons [8]. - **Inventory**: This week, the inventory of five major steel products and rebar continued to accumulate. As of Friday, the total rebar inventory increased by 16.61 tons to 640.0 tons [8]. - **Basis**: As of Friday, the lowest warehouse - receipt quotation for rebar in Shanghai was 3240 yuan/ton, with a premium of 97 yuan over the rebar 01 contract, a month - on - month contraction of 13 yuan [8]. **[B] Iron Ore** - **Futures**: This week, the iron ore 01 contract maintained a relatively strong consolidation trend driven by the main long - position players first reducing and then increasing positions. As of Friday, it closed at 789.5 yuan/ton, up 2.0 yuan/ton from last week, a weekly increase of 0.25% [8]. - **Spot**: This week, the prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties generally increased slightly, and the prices of domestic iron ore concentrates began to rise steadily with average overall transactions [8]. - **Fundamentals** - **Supply**: As of the 1st, the total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2902.1 tons, a month - on - month increase of 141.7 tons. The 45 - port arrival volume was 2526.0 tons, a month - on - month increase of 132.7 tons [10]. - **Demand**: Currently, the daily average port clearance volume of 45 ports is 317.78 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.87 tons. The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills was 228.84 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.29 tons [10]. - **Inventory**: As of the 5th, the iron ore inventory at 45 ports continued to decline slightly, currently at 13825.32 tons, a month - on - month increase of 62.3 tons [10]. - **Basis**: As of Friday, the optimal delivery products of PB fines and Newman fines at Qingdao Port were 824 yuan/ton, with a premium of 35 yuan over the iron ore 01 contract, the same as last week [10].

Report Overview - Report Title: "Caida Futures | Copper Weekly Report 2025-9-8" [1] - Core View: Due to the U.S. employment data falling far short of expectations, the market's concerns about recession outweigh the benefits of interest rate cuts, but the domestic loose policy tone continues. If the concerns do not escalate, the subsequent decline in domestic copper smelting output and low inventory levels are still expected to support a slight price rebound. It is expected that the price may weaken slightly this week before stabilizing [5] Market Conditions Review - Last week, the main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuated and strengthened slightly. The closing price on Friday was 80,140 yuan/ton, about a 0.92% increase from the previous week [6] Supply and Demand Analysis - SMM expects the copper output in September to decline by 52,500 tons or 4.48% month-on-month to 1.119 million tons. There are 5 smelters under maintenance, and the decline in September output is mainly due to the large-scale production cut caused by the tight supply of anode copper [4] - The operating rate of SMM copper cable enterprises is 66.75%, both lower than the previous period and the same period last year and lower than expected. High copper prices significantly suppress demand in various fields, and the overall performance of the copper cable industry is mediocre [4] - The operating rate of brass rod enterprises is 49%, a 0.51 percentage point decline from the previous period. The industry's operating level is still below the middle level. Entering the traditional peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October", most enterprises reported that terminal orders have not significantly recovered, and the continuous high - temperature weather in some areas has also delayed the production recovery rhythm, with weak demand recovery [4] - In the real estate and infrastructure fields, the performance is mediocre and difficult to provide strong support; the refrigeration industry is still in the off - season, and coupled with the continuous high copper prices, the downstream procurement willingness is significantly suppressed [4] - There will be a concentrated maintenance period for smelters in mid - to late September. With the current high copper prices and lackluster demand, the market is expected to show a pattern of weak supply and demand [4] Macroeconomic Analysis - The U.S. non - farm payrolls data in August dropped significantly to 22,000, far lower than market expectations, indicating a weak U.S. job market. The probability of an interest rate cut this month and two interest rate cuts within the year has increased [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the four stock index futures varieties started high - level adjustments, with relatively large adjustment amplitudes in CSI 1000 and CSI 500. All were in the futures discount mode, with IH at - 1.42, IF at - 3.72, IC at - 15.35, and IM at - 19.67 [3] - The A - share market had large fluctuations last week. Although the index declined, the structural market was prominent. The AI - related technology sector showed adjustment and differentiation, while the new energy track became the new leading sector, and the sector rotation was successful. After the sharp adjustment, the selling pressure decreased significantly, and the market had abundant liquidity [3] - The US August non - farm payroll data was weak again, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%. The US employment market continued to cool and the economy continued to weaken [4] - A series of data this week support the Fed to cut interest rates, which provides a new basis for domestic monetary easing. With the strengthening of the RMB and the weakening of the US dollar, more overseas funds may flow into the A - share market. Next week, the A - share market may continue to fluctuate and adjust through large trading volumes, sector rotations, and the index moving sideways or slightly falling [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - The four stock index futures varieties adjusted at high levels last week, and the basis of the four varieties showed differentiation but all were in the futures discount mode [3] - The A - share market had large fluctuations, with a successful sector rotation from the AI - related technology sector to the new energy track. After the adjustment, the selling pressure decreased, and the market had sufficient liquidity [3] Comprehensive Analysis - The US August non - farm payroll data was weak, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3% and the employment market continuing to cool [4] - Data this week support the Fed to cut interest rates, which provides a basis for domestic monetary easing. With the RMB strengthening and the US dollar weakening, more overseas funds may flow into the A - share market. Next week, the A - share market may continue to fluctuate and adjust [5]

Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The gold price is on a bullish trend due to the support of the US employment data and the expectation of Fed rate cuts. The gold price has strong fundamental support and is expected to continue rising in the medium to long term [1][2][5] Summary by Related Content Gold Price Performance - Last week, the gold futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed at 822.78 yuan per gram, surging over 3% for the whole week. The international gold price broke through $3,600 per ounce and closed at $3,639 per ounce on Friday, both hitting record highs [1] US Economic Data and Fed Rate Cut Expectations - The US July PCE data is not expected to affect the September rate cut as the employment market is weakening. The JOLTS job - vacancy data and the unemployment - relief application report indicate a cooling labor market. The number of first - time unemployment - relief applicants last week rose to 237,000, 8,000 more than the previous week [1] - The US August non - farm payrolls added only 22,000 jobs, far lower than market expectations, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%. After the data release, the market fully expects a Fed rate cut in September, with an 89% probability of a 25 - basis - point cut and an 11% probability of a 50 - basis - point cut. The probability of another 25 - basis - point cut in October is close to 80% [2] - The market predicts that the US August CPI will rise 0.3% month - on - month and 2.9% year - on - year. As long as inflation does not rebound significantly, it will not affect the September rate cut. Considering Trump's pressure and the weak employment data, a preventive 25 - basis - point rate cut in September is more likely, followed by another 25 - basis - point cut in October. There may be a total of 2 to 3 rate cuts this year, amounting to 50 to 75 basis points. There is at least 150 basis points of rate - cut space from the current 4.25% - 4.5% interest - rate level [4] Gold Price Outlook - The gold price has broken through the consolidation platform and shows a strong upward trend. Although there may be short - term consolidation due to the large short - term gains, the callback space is limited. In the medium to long term, the international gold price may attack the 4,000 mark, and the domestic gold price may challenge 900 yuan per gram [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term support for the hog market is insufficient, while the upward pressure on the corn market should be noted. For hogs, there is limited upward momentum in the short - term, but prices may be boosted by pre - holiday stocking demand around the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day. For corn, the spot market remains weak, and although the futures market rebounds, the upward pressure is increasing, and short - term participation is recommended [3][4][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Hog - Futures: Last week, the hog futures fluctuated weakly. The LH2511 contract closed at 13,325 yuan/ton, a 1.88% decrease from the previous week's settlement price [4] - Spot: The national average market price of outer ternary hogs was 13.87 yuan/kg, a week - on - week increase of 0.13 yuan/kg [4] - Profit: As of September 5, the self - breeding and self - raising hog farming profit was 52.65 yuan/head, a week - on - week increase of 20.41 yuan/head; the profit of purchasing piglets for farming was - 126.24 yuan/head, a week - on - week increase of 22.17 yuan/head; the hog - grain ratio was 5.97, a week - on - week increase of 0.08 [4] - Market situation: The national hog spot price rose first and then fell last week. At the beginning of the month, the scale farms reduced their slaughter volume, and the school opening drove up demand. However, after the continuous price increase, the downstream acceptance decreased, and the hog market adjusted weakly. Currently, the farm slaughter is gradually recovering, and the positive effect of the school opening is weakening. There is no further support for demand in the short - term. The price may be boosted by pre - holiday stocking demand in the second half of September. The actual slaughter and transaction of group farms need to be monitored [4] Corn - Futures: Last week, the corn futures fluctuated strongly. The C2511 contract closed at 2,224 yuan/ton, a 1.69% increase from the previous week's settlement price [6] - Spot: The national average spot price of corn was 2,362.94 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1.77 yuan/ton. The prices in different ports showed different trends [6] - Industrial consumption: From August 27 to September 3, 2025, 149 major corn deep - processing enterprises consumed 1.143 million tons of corn, a week - on - week increase of 0.29 million tons. The corn starch industry's开机率 decreased, while the corn alcohol industry's开机率 increased [7] - Inventory: As of September 3, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 2.711 million tons, a decrease of 7.85%. As of September 5, the total corn inventory of the four northern ports was about 1.07 million tons, and the corn inventory in Guangdong ports was 0.63 million tons [7] - Market situation: The national corn spot price continued to fall last week. The demand from different industries was mixed. The policy - grain supply supplemented the market, but the downstream enterprises were cautious about restocking. The spot market adjusted weakly, and the futures market rebounded with increasing upward pressure [8]

财达期货｜ 焦煤焦炭周报 焦钢博弈剧烈，双焦期价触底反弹 【期现行情】 上周焦煤 2601 合约周五收于 1158.5，周涨幅 0.65%，现货市场主流地区报价 稳中偏弱运行。 研究员 上周焦炭 2601 合约周五收于 1646.5，周涨幅 0.21%，现货市场主流地区报价 暂稳为主。 姓名：申伟光 【基本面分析】 焦煤： 供应端：上周全国 523 家炼焦煤矿山核定产能利用率 75.8%，环比下降 8.2%。 全国 314 家独立洗煤厂产能利用率 35.6%，环比下降 0.9%；精煤日均产量 25.5 万 吨，环比减少 0.5 万吨。阅兵期间，煤矿主产区安监及环保检查较严，停产检修煤 矿增多，主要集中在长治、临汾、晋中等地区，据我的钢铁网调研统计涉及产能约 9000 万吨左右，停产时间 2-10 天不等，上周山西炼焦煤减产幅度较大。库存方面， 上周下游焦钢企业停限产增多，炼焦煤矿山核定产能利用率大幅下降，观望情绪浓 厚，炼焦煤矿原煤库存及洗煤厂精煤库存下降。 需求端：上周，焦炭第七轮提涨落地后焦企生产利润好转，但第八轮迟迟不能 落地，同时钢厂停产检修高炉增多，焦煤刚需减弱，阅兵期间，部分地区焦企受环 保影响执 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View - Policy support is expected to boost the pig market, while the corn market is facing downward pressure with limited upward potential on the futures price [2][3][7]. 3. Summary by Category Pig Market - Futures: The LH2511 contract closed at 13,840 yuan/ton, down 0.5% from the previous week's settlement price [3]. - Spot: The national average price of ternary pigs was 13.82 yuan/kg, up 0.02 yuan/kg week-on-week [3]. - Profit: As of August 22, the profit of self - breeding and self - raising pigs was 33.95 yuan/head, an increase of 33.95 yuan/head week - on - week; the profit of purchasing piglets for fattening was - 151.8 yuan/head, an increase of 5.25 yuan/head week - on - week; the pig - grain ratio was 5.84, unchanged week - on - week [3]. - Market Situation: Pig prices were volatile last week with regional differences. Southern prices rose slightly due to second - fattening and transportation, while northern prices weakened due to increased supply and limited demand. Policy support from potential state reserve purchases and improved demand from the start of the school season in late August are expected to support prices [3]. Corn Market - Futures: The C2511 contract closed at 2,175 yuan/ton, down 0.78% from the previous week's settlement price [5]. - Spot: The national average spot price of corn was 2,381.96 yuan/ton, down 12.16 yuan/ton week - on - week. Port prices also declined [5]. - Industrial Consumption: From August 14 - 20, 2025, 149 major corn deep - processing enterprises consumed 113.62 million tons of corn, down 0.45 million tons week - on - week. Corn starch production and开机率 decreased, while the DDGS industry开机率 and production increased [6]. - Inventory: As of August 20, the corn inventory of 96 major processing enterprises in 12 regions was 3.147 billion tons, a decrease of 7.5%. As of August 22, the total corn inventory in four northern ports was about 1.5 billion tons, and in Guangdong ports it was 750 million tons [6]. - Market Situation: The corn spot market was weak last week. Supply increased due to import auctions and rotation sales in the Northeast, and increased arrivals in the North China. Demand was affected by equipment maintenance in starch plants and remained at a rigid level in feed enterprises. The futures price rebounded slightly but the upward space is limited [7].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the four stock index futures varieties continued to rise significantly, with relatively large increases in CSI 300 and CSI 500. The basis of the four stock index futures varieties remained in the futures discount mode, and the discount depth improved. The A - share market continued the previous general upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through the 2021 bull - market high and standing above 3800 points. Although there was sector rotation, there were still risks in the long - term view [4]. - The initiator and promoter of this round of market are not retail investors. The core clue of this round of market is around industrial trends and performance. There will be a relay process of new and old funds in the market, and the continuation of the future market requires new allocation clues [5]. - At the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting on Friday night, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell expressed a clear signal of accelerating interest rate cuts, which provides a new basis for domestic monetary easing. More overseas funds will flow into A - shares. Next week, the stock index may accelerate the attack on the integer mark, and then it will be judged whether to further attack or oscillate and adjust according to the market sentiment and news. The four major stock index futures are still treated as oscillating strongly [6]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Last week, the four stock index futures varieties continued to rise significantly, with relatively large increases in CSI 300 and CSI 500. The basis of the four stock index futures varieties remained in the futures discount mode, and the discount depth improved. The A - share market continued the previous general upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through the 2021 bull - market high and standing above 3800 points. As of August 22, there was sector rotation, but the low - level switching was not obvious. There were still risks in the long - term view [4]. Comprehensive Analysis - The initiator and promoter of this round of market are not retail investors. The core clue from the start to the acceleration of this round of market is around industrial trends and performance. There will be a relay process of new and old funds in the market, and the continuation of the future market requires new allocation clues rather than being restricted by liquidity [5]. Outlook for the Future Market - At the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting on Friday night, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell expressed a clear signal of accelerating interest rate cuts, which provides a new basis for domestic monetary easing. More overseas funds will flow into A - shares. Next week, the stock index may accelerate the attack on the integer mark, and then it will be judged whether to further attack or oscillate and adjust according to the market sentiment and news. The four major stock index futures are still treated as oscillating strongly [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, the market sentiment declined, and the prices of coking coal and coke futures mainly fell. The coking coal 2601 contract and the coke 2601 contract both decreased significantly, breaking the support of the 20 - day moving average, showing a short - term bearish trend [1][3][4][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The coking coal 2601 contract closed at 1162 on Friday last week, with a weekly decline of 5.53%. The mainstream spot market quotes remained stable. The coke 2601 contract closed at 1678.5 on Friday last week, with a weekly decline of 2.95%. The mainstream spot market quotes were mainly stable [3]. 3.2. Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1. Coking Coal - **Supply Side**: The utilization rate of the approved production capacity of 523 coking coal mines nationwide was 85.2%, a month - on - month increase of 1.5%. The utilization rate of the production capacity of 314 independent coal washing plants was 36.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.41%. The daily output of clean coal was 257,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7,000 tons. Due to the continuous disturbances in coal mines, the inventory of raw coal in coking coal mines and clean coal in coal washing plants increased [3]. - **Demand Side**: After continuous price increases, the profits of coking enterprises continued to recover, and the operating rate increased slightly. However, the profit recovery of coking enterprises narrowed, and the willingness to accept high - priced coal continued to decline. Steel mills' blast furnace operating rates remained high, but the procurement of coking and steel enterprises was mainly on - demand. The proportion of auction failures and price - cut transactions increased [4]. - **Overall**: Last week, the supply of coking coal decreased slightly, and the demand remained stable. The coking coal 2601 contract fell significantly, and the short - term trend was bearish [4]. 3.2.2. Coke - **Supply Side**: The utilization rate of the production capacity of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 74.42%, a month - on - month increase of 0.08%. The daily output was 654,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 70 tons. The profit per ton of 30 sample coking enterprises was 23 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 3 yuan/ton. Due to environmental protection requirements, the supply of coke is expected to be restricted. The spot price of coke at ports remained stable, and the inventory decreased slightly [6]. - **Demand Side**: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.36%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.23%. The daily output of hot metal was 2.4075 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 900 tons. The profitability of steel mills decreased slightly but remained good. Some steel mills in North China will limit production during the parade, which is expected to suppress the demand for coke [6]. - **Overall**: Last week, the supply and demand of coke remained stable. The coke 2601 contract fell significantly, and the short - term trend was bearish [6]. 3.3. Arbitrage - Last week, the coking coal ratio fell significantly, with an average of 1.44. Currently, it is at a relatively high level in the same period in the past 5 years. Attention should be paid to the range of 1.35 - 1.55 [7]. 3.4. Inventory | Product | Location | Inventory (thousand tons) | Weekly Change (thousand tons) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coking Coal | Port | 261.49 | 6 | | | All - sample independent coking plants | 966.41 | - 10.47 | | | 247 sample steel mills | 812.31 | 6.51 | | | Total | 2040.21 | 2.04 | | Coke | Port | 214.12 | - 0.99 | | | All - sample independent coking plants | 64.37 | 1.86 | | | 247 sample steel mills | 609.59 | - 0.21 | | | Total | 888.08 | 0.66 | [8]