走势惊心动魄 金价牛市未结束 上周因国庆长期因素，只有两个交易日，但走势惊心动魄。长 假期间，外盘金价暴涨，黄金价格突破每盎司 4000 美元，白银逼 近每盎司 50 美元关口。市场上涨的助推力量仍是美联储降息预期， 加上美国因临时拨款方案未获国会通过，导致政府再次停摆，引发 市场对美国内政与政策不确定性的担忧，继而引发避险情绪升温， 进一步刺激了金银价格上涨。 姓名：李津文 从业资格号： 投资咨询号： 金银价格在黄金周期间一路狂欢，国内期市开盘金银价格出现 大幅补涨，但转天市场突然变脸，导火索是巴以冲突出现重大变化， 达成停火协议。尽管巴以冲突从来不是金价上涨的重要推手，但巴 以停火短时间内会让市场避险情绪有所消退。市场还会联想到，假 如俄乌冲突结束，可能会对金价带来更大的冲击，尽管短期内俄乌 冲突仍无结束的迹象。 财达期货｜贵金属周报 2025-10-13 研究员 F0244287 Z0012495 金价过了每盎司 4000 美元大关，白银过了每盎司 50 美元大关 都遇阻，是否已见大顶？无论从技术面还是从基本面都暂无法得出 金价已见历史大顶的结论，上涨中继的可能性更大。因为从黄金的 基本面来看，巴以冲突 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The external environment remains complex. The US tariff pressure on China persists, and the "rush to export" trend is unsustainable. However, the weakening of the US dollar's credit foundation eases the passive depreciation pressure on the RMB. In China, the conversion of expectations into reality is evident, but the continuous effect of the "anti - involution" policy on deflation improvement still depends on demand - side cooperation. Corporate profit repair is not yet stable, and the transmission of policies and monetary effects requires time. The current valuation repair process is ahead of the profit recovery slope, and the profit recovery situation is the key to whether the overall market center can rise. Attention should be paid to the recovery of the overall market profitability [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - In September, the domestic A - share market indices continued to rise, with multiple indices hitting new highs this year. Small - cap growth stocks outperformed, followed by large - cap growth stocks, while large - cap value stocks had continuous corrections. The performance of various industries was significantly differentiated, with non - ferrous metals related to precious metals leading the gains, and coal, food and beverage, and oil and petrochemicals leading the losses. In terms of valuation, there was obvious internal differentiation among stock indices [3] - The basis of the four major stock index futures main contracts mostly remained in a discount state. The trading of the four major stock index futures was highly active, with a convergence at the end of the quarter. IM was the most active, followed by IF and IC with similar activity levels. The overall positions of the four major stock index futures varieties increased, with IM having the largest position scale, followed by IF [3] 3.2 Macroeconomic Situation - Domestically, in the first half of 2025, the GDP actually grew by 5.3%. The economic growth rate slowed down slightly in the second quarter, with a single - quarter growth of 5.2%. In 2024, the cumulative year - on - year growth rates of fixed - asset investment and real estate development investment were 3.2% and - 10.6% respectively. In the fourth quarter of 2024, the contributions of consumption, investment, and net exports to GDP all increased. After negotiations, the tariff rate was stable at 15%, and external demand maintained resilience [4] - Overseas, at the end of September, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25bp as expected, and the dot - plot showed a total reduction of about 75bp this year. Due to the large - scale US fiscal deficit caused by the "Big and Beautiful" Act, the US Treasury yield remained high, and the US dollar index fluctuated around the key level of 97. The Fed Chairman paid more attention to the cooling of the US labor market, and the unemployment rate rose in the third quarter. The Fed's strict attitude towards inflation may ease [4]

财达期货｜焦煤焦炭月报 财达期货｜焦煤焦炭月报 2025-10-10 Z0019628 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 第 1 页 共 10 页 数据来源：同花顺.wind.mysteel.财达期货研发部 煤焦供应阶段性扰动，双焦期价冲高回落 展望后期，9 月中旬生态环境保护督察组分别向主要省份反馈，提到继续要推进 生态环境隐患整治、煤炭主产地继续严格落实煤炭总量控制等内容，预期中长期煤 炭总量增长受限，不过近期焦煤进口量尤其蒙煤通关车辆数增加，预计 10 月份焦煤 供应维持稳定。随着焦煤价格持续上涨，焦炭成本快速提升，焦化利润下行，在高 炉维持较高开工率的情况下，预计焦炭提涨势在必行，但随着铁水产量处于高点， 成材需求旺季需求也将进入尾声，若成材开始快速累库，则煤焦价格将面临较大压 力。 研究员 研究员姓名： 申伟光 从业资格号： F03088716 投资咨询号： 套利方面：9 月份焦煤比均值 1.42，窄幅震荡运行。从过去 5 年的季节性走势 图看，目前处于历史同期相对均位，预计呈震荡运行，关注 1.3-1.5 区间变化。 后期重点关注：关注焦煤、焦炭现货价格变化、下游成材需求变化、焦钢利润、 国际宏观 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The Fed is entering an interest rate cut cycle, and there are also expectations of domestic monetary easing. Frequent disruptions on the copper mine supply side and the arrival of the peak demand season in September and October suggest that copper prices are expected to enter an upward cycle [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections 行情回顾 - Last week, the main contract of Shanghai copper maintained a volatile trend at the beginning of the week. On Thursday, it rose sharply boosted by overseas mine production cut news and maintained a high - level volatility on Friday. The closing price on Friday was 82,470 yuan/ton, about 3.2% higher than the previous week [6]. Supply and Demand Analysis - Freeport declared force majeure at the Grasberg mine in Indonesia, and it is estimated that Freeport Indonesia's production in 2026 may be about 35% lower than the pre - event forecast. Hudbay Minerals in Canada temporarily closed the Constancia concentrator due to the volatile situation in Peru, raising concerns about the copper supply chain [4]. - The machine operating rate of the enameled wire industry failed to continue its upward trend this week, dropping 0.2 percentage points to 77.73% week - on - week, and new orders also decreased by 0.81 percentage points week - on - week. The unexpected surge in copper prices on Thursday was the key factor preventing the operating rate from rising as expected. SMM predicts that the machine operating rate of the enameled wire industry will drop to 73.53% next week [4]. - Due to the sharp rise in copper prices, downstream enterprises in the North China market currently have almost no inventory replenishment demand. Poor consumption has led processing enterprises to consider extending the National Day holiday [4]. Industry Meeting - On September 24, the 5th meeting of the 3rd Council of the Copper Branch of the China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association was held in Xiongan New Area. Chen Xuesen, a member of the Party Committee Standing Committee and Vice - President of the association, emphasized that the "involution - style" competition in the copper smelting industry has a great impact on the industry, undermines national and industry interests, and deviates from the high - quality development orientation. Copper industry enterprises should firmly oppose such competition [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term rebound of US economic data cannot change the general trend of the Fed's interest rate cuts, and the bullish pattern of precious metals will continue [2][7][8] 3. Summary Based on Related Content Precious Metals Price Performance - Last week, the prices of gold and silver continued to strengthen. The international gold price closed at $3,789 per ounce, and the international silver price closed at $46 per ounce [3] Fed's Policy and Related Speeches - Fed Chairman Powell stated last week that the increasing downside risk in the job market was the key reason for the Fed's interest rate cut. He said this was a step towards a "neutral" policy stance and emphasized that there was no preset direction for future policies. His speech caused a slight rebound in the US dollar, but it won't change the Fed's trend of further interest rate cuts [4] Key Events During the National Day Holiday - During the upcoming National Day holiday in China, the US will release September non - farm payroll data. Since the August non - farm employment was very poor and the unemployment rate reached 4.3%, if the September data is still not ideal, it will increase the expectation of another interest rate cut in October. Also, the minutes of the September Fed's interest rate meeting will be released, which can show the basis for the Fed's September interest rate cut decision and possible future policies [5] Other Influential Factors - The US debt ceiling issue is a point of contention between the two parties. If no consensus is reached by the end of September, the US government may shut down on October 1st, which could affect the financial market [6] - Trump's sudden change of stance on the Russia - Ukraine conflict, starting to take a tougher line on Russia, means that ending the conflict remains difficult and will continue to support the gold price [6] - Last Friday's US economic data showed good short - term economic indicators, with a decline in the number of initial jobless claims, an upward revision of GDP, and a slight rebound in prices. The US dollar and Treasury yields rebounded initially, but the US dollar index closed significantly lower, and precious metal prices rose, indicating that the market believes the short - term economic rebound is not enough to make the Fed change its interest rate - cut plan [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - For rebar, short - term supply - demand conditions are gradually improving, with indicators such as inventory reduction and increased consumption showing the characteristics of the peak construction season, but the sustainability of inventory reduction needs further observation, and attention should be paid to factors like delivery warrants and foreign capital positions [5][8]. - For iron ore, short - term import shipments are slightly decreasing, while next week's arrivals are expected to increase slightly, and port inventory is under pressure. The demand side shows an increase in daily iron water production and steel mill consumption, and pre - holiday restocking supports the iron ore futures market [10]. 3. Summary by Category Rebar - **Futures**: The rebar 01 contract adjusted under the drive of increased short - position by main players, closing at 3114 yuan/ton on Friday, a weekly decline of 58 yuan or 1.83% [5]. - **Spot**: Mainstream rebar prices in various regions showed mixed trends, with the national average price down 11 yuan to 3288 yuan/ton [5]. - **Fundamentals** - **Supply**: The blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills increased, while the average operating rate and capacity utilization rate of 90 electric - arc furnace steel mills decreased. Rebar weekly output increased by 0.01 million tons to 2.0646 million tons, still at a low level year - on - year [5]. - **Demand**: Building material trading volume decreased slightly, while rebar apparent consumption increased slightly. The 5 - day average building material trading volume decreased by 0.05 million tons to 1.065 million tons, and rebar apparent consumption increased by 10.41 million tons to 2.2044 million tons, remaining at a low level in the same period [8]. - **Inventory**: The total rebar inventory decreased by 139,800 tons to 6.363 million tons, with social inventory down 133,200 tons to 4.7189 million tons and mill inventory down 6,600 tons to 1.6441 million tons [8]. - **Basis**: The Shanghai rebar lowest - cost delivery warrant was 3260 yuan/ton, with a premium of 146 yuan over the rebar 01 contract, an increase of 58 yuan week - on - week. It is expected that the rebar basis will likely shrink later [8]. Iron Ore - **Futures**: The iron ore 01 contract adjusted under the drive of reduced long - position by main players, closing at 790.0 yuan/ton on Friday, a weekly decline of 17.5 yuan/ton or 2.17% [8]. - **Spot**: Imported ore prices generally decreased slightly, while domestic iron concentrate prices remained stable, with average trading volume [8]. - **Fundamentals** - **Supply**: As of the 22nd, the total shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased by 2.05 million tons to 27.728 million tons. The arrivals at 45 ports increased by 3.127 million tons to 26.75 million tons [10]. - **Demand**: The daily average port clearance volume at 45 ports decreased by 27,700 tons to 3.364 million tons. The weekly average trading volume of port - spot iron ore increased by 174,000 tons to 1.297 million tons. The daily average hot - metal output of 247 steel mills increased by 13,400 tons to 2.4236 million tons [10]. - **Inventory**: As of the 26th, the iron ore inventory at 45 ports increased by 1.992 million tons to 140.0028 million tons, while the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 426,960 tons to 97.3639 million tons [10]. - **Basis**: The best - delivery Newman powder at Rizhao Port was 828 yuan/ton, with a premium of 38 yuan over the iron ore 01 contract, an increase of 2 yuan week - on - week. It is expected that the iron ore basis will likely shrink later [10].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market is in a wait - and - see state, and the probability of a significant short - term index - level correction is low. Whether trading volume can continue to increase is the key, and it's best to wait for the market to give signals [4] 3. Summaries by Related Content Market Review - Last week, the four stock index futures showed an oscillating upward trend, with relatively large increases in CSI 500 and SSE 500. The basis of the four stock index futures improved, but most contracts remained in the futures discount mode. The futures - spot basis of the main contracts were: IH at 3.38, IF at - 25.05, IC at - 160.91, and IM at - 208.39 [2] - The A - share market showed an oscillating upward trend last week, with small and medium - cap indexes performing relatively well. The main indexes have reached historical resistance levels and are facing a directional choice. Week - on - week trading volume contraction is normal. Sector rotation has occurred, with sectors like wind power, chemical fiber, and fertilizer showing short - term stabilization. Before the National Day, funds tend to reduce positions for risk - avoidance. Some sectors with high leverage such as computing power and innovative drugs fell on Friday, and a small amount of funds are speculating on National Day consumption [2] Comprehensive Analysis - During the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle, overseas funds may accelerate and increase their inflow into Chinese assets. The market will further speculate on the possibility of China's monetary authorities cutting interest rates and reserve requirements in Q4, which will provide important liquidity support for the market's upward movement [3][4]

Report Overview - Report Title: "Caid Futures | Coking Coal and Coke Weekly Report" - Report Date: September 29, 2025 - Core View: The coking coal and coke markets are experiencing intense competition between coking and steel enterprises, with both futures prices fluctuating. In the short term, attention should be paid to the support of the 10 - day moving average [3][5][9] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Key Points by Section 1. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Last week, the coking coal 2601 contract closed at 1196.5 on Friday, with a weekly decline of 2.88%. The spot market prices in mainstream areas showed a strong trend. The coke 2601 contract closed at 1692.5 on Friday, with a weekly decline of 2.65%. The spot market prices in mainstream areas remained stable [5] 2. Fundamental Analysis Coking Coal - **Supply Side**: The utilization rate of the approved production capacity of 523 coking coal mines nationwide was 86.5%, a month - on - month increase of 1.8%. The utilization rate of the production capacity of 314 independent coal washing plants was 38.2%, a month - on - month increase of 0.8%, and the daily output of clean coal was 275,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7,000 tons. Most mines maintained normal operations, but market expectations suggest that long - term coal production growth is limited. The inventory of raw coal in coking coal mines and clean coal in coal washing plants decreased [5] - **Demand Side**: After two consecutive rounds of price cuts for coke, coke enterprises' losses expanded, and some enterprises implemented production restrictions. However, high pig iron production, stable coke enterprise operations, and pre - National Day restocking demand led to good coking coal demand. Currently, the restocking is coming to an end, and enterprises are purchasing on - demand. The online auction prices of coking coal generally rose, but the increase slowed down over the weekend [6] - **Overall**: Last week, both the supply and demand of coking coal increased slightly. The coking coal 2601 contract fluctuated last week, closing below the 10 - day moving average on Friday. Short - term attention should be paid to the support of the 10 - day moving average [6] Coke - **Supply Side**: The utilization rate of the production capacity of all independent coking enterprises nationwide was 75.43%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.44%. The daily output was 663,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 38,000 tons. The profit per ton of coke for 30 sample coking enterprises was - 34 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 17 yuan/ton. Coking enterprises' production enthusiasm declined, and supply was restricted. The coking association proposed a price increase of 50 - 85 yuan/ton and a production restriction of over 30%. The spot price of coke at ports was strong, with general trading and a slight decrease in inventory [8] - **Demand Side**: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.45%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.47%. The daily pig iron output was 2.4236 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 13,400 tons. The steel mill profitability rate was 58.01%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.86%. Steel mills' demand for coke increased, but due to weak terminal consumption and reduced profitability, their restocking ability was limited, and they mainly purchased on - demand [8] - **Overall**: Last week, both the supply and demand of coke decreased. The coke 2601 contract fluctuated last week, closing below the 10 - day moving average on Friday. Short - term attention should be paid to the support of the 10 - day moving average [9] 3. Arbitrage - Last week, the coking coal - to - coke ratio dropped significantly, with an average of 1.41. It is currently at a relatively high level in the same period of history. Attention should be paid to the range of 1.35 - 1.55. Also, pay attention to the spot prices of coal and coke, downstream product demand, steel mill production, coking and steel enterprise profits, international macro - policies, and sudden risk impacts [9] 4. Inventory and Other Data - **Coking Coal Inventory**: Port inventory was 265,490 tons, a decrease of 16,700 tons; all - sample independent coking plants' inventory was 999,070 tons, an increase of 58,660 tons; 247 sample steel mills' inventory was 796,070 tons, an increase of 5,730 tons; the total inventory was 2,060,630 tons, an increase of 47,690 tons [10] - **Coke Inventory**: Port inventory was 196,060 tons, a decrease of 8,050 tons; all - sample independent coking plants' inventory was 63,040 tons, a decrease of 3,370 tons; 247 sample steel mills' inventory was 661,310 tons, an increase of 16,640 tons; the total inventory was 920,410 tons, an increase of 5,220 tons [10] - **Operating Rates and Other Data**: The operating rate of coking enterprises with production capacity < 100 million tons was 52.95%, an increase of 1.05%; for those with 100 - 200 million tons, it was 71.89%, a decrease of 0.05%; for those > 200 million tons, it was 79.92%, a decrease of 0.13%. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.45%, a decrease of 0.47%. The steel mill profitability rate was 58.01%, a decrease of 0.86%. The cumulative pig iron production in August was 57,907,030 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.10%; the cumulative crude steel production in August was 67,180,570 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.80% [10]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The price of live pigs is in a weak adjustment, and may stabilize and adjust in the short - term due to farmers' resistance to low - price sales and the double - festival consumption boost. The corn price has a downward expectation as new - season corn enters the harvest period and new grain has high moisture, and traders are not willing to build inventories [4][7] Summary by Related Catalogs Live Pigs - Futures: The LH2511 contract of live pig futures closed at 12,575 yuan/ton last week, down 2.03% from the previous week's settlement price [4] - Spot: The national average market price of outer three - yuan live pigs was 12.76 yuan/kg, a week - on - week decrease of 0.15 yuan/kg [4] - Profit: As of September 26, the self - breeding and self - raising profit was - 74.11 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 49.67 yuan/head; the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 236.57 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 37.26 yuan/head; the pig - grain ratio was 5.44, a week - on - week decrease of 0.2 [4] - Market situation: The supply of leading group factories increased, demand did not improve significantly, and affected by typhoon weather in some areas, the overall market transaction was average, with weak price support. After continuous price drops, farmers' resistance to low - price sales increased, and the downstream product stocking effect appeared due to double - festival consumption [4] Corn - Futures: The C2511 contract of corn futures closed at 2,178 yuan/ton last week, up 0.32% from the previous week's settlement price [5] - Spot: The national average spot price of corn was 2,365.29 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 5.49 yuan/ton [5] - Port prices: In Jinzhou Port, the price of corn with 15% moisture and 720 bulk density was 2,240 - 2,260 yuan/ton, with the high end up 10 yuan/ton; the flat - hatch price of 15% moisture corn was 2,300 - 2,310 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. In Bayuquan Port, the price of corn with 15% moisture and 720 bulk density was 2,240 - 2,260 yuan/ton, with the high end up 10 yuan/ton; the flat - hatch price of 15% moisture corn was 2,300 - 2,310 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. In Guangdong Shekou Port, the transaction price of 15% moisture bulk corn was 2,410 - 2,430 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton, and the price of first - grade corn was 2,460 - 2,480 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [5] - Industrial consumption: From September 18 to September 24, 2025, 149 major corn deep - processing enterprises consumed 1.1424 million tons of corn, a week - on - week decrease of 13,900 tons. The processing volume of corn starch enterprises was 534,600 tons, an increase of 17,400 tons from the previous week; the weekly national corn starch output was 260,500 tons, an increase of 11,400 tons from the previous week; the weekly operating rate was 50.36%, an increase of 2.2% from the previous week. The operating rate of the DDGS industry was 47.88%, a decrease of 2.43% from the previous week; the weekly production of DDGS in sample enterprises was 97,440 tons, a decrease of 4,950 tons from the previous week, a decrease of 4.83% [6] - Inventory: As of September 24, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 2.118 million tons, a decrease of 9.49%. As of September 26, the total corn inventory of the four northern ports was about 650,000 tons, and the corn inventory in Guangdong ports was 370,000 tons [6] - Market situation: The national corn spot market first fell and then rose. Farmers in the Northeast had high enthusiasm for selling grain, and the purchase price decreased; the market circulation in North China decreased, and the enterprise purchase price increased slightly. The operating rate of corn starch enterprises increased, while the operating rate of alcohol enterprises decreased. Feed enterprises had certain pre - festival stocking needs, but the overall purchase volume was limited [7] - Operation suggestion: As the National Day holiday approaches, it is recommended to hold a light position [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall A-share market showed a narrow-range volatile trend last week with significant structural industry differentiation. The science and technology sector remained the market's mainstay despite increased volatility. The market demonstrated strong resilience and stable sentiment. Looking ahead, the A-share market may face structural adjustments and overall range-bound fluctuations [3][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - Last week, the four stock index futures varieties mainly showed a volatile consolidation trend. The adjustment amplitudes of the Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 were relatively large. The basis of the four stock index futures varieties continued to develop towards deep discounts, and most contracts maintained the futures discount mode. The futures-spot basis of the main contracts of the index futures were as follows: IH at 3.66, IF at -37.52, IC at -186.35, and IM at -247.39 [3]. - The A-share market showed a narrow-range volatile trend last week with significant structural industry differentiation. After the communication computing power led the market, the new energy, semiconductor, and robot sectors gradually showed a leading trend. The science and technology sector remained the market's mainstay despite increased volatility [3]. 3.2 Comprehensive Analysis - There were many information catalysts related to science and technology recently. For example, NVIDIA invested in Intel and would jointly develop high-performance chips for PCs and AI data centers with it, US technology companies invested in UK data centers, Huawei first clearly disclosed the Hetu series of AI chip plans, and Chinese technology companies adapted domestic chips. The mainstay position of science and technology did not change significantly [4]. 3.3 Outlook - The social retail and industrial added value data released last week showed that after the marginal effect of the "two important and two new" policies gradually faded, domestic demand might stall again. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, but the interest rate cut guidance for 2026 was less than market expectations. The A-share market may face structural adjustments and overall range-bound fluctuations in the future [5].