财达期货｜生猪玉米周报 财达期货｜生猪、玉米周报 2025-08-25 研究员 F3046737 Z0015545 上周生猪期货先抑后扬，LH2511 合约报收 13840 元/吨，较前 周结算价下跌 0.5%。 姓名：田金莲 从业资格号： 现货方面，全国外三元生猪市场价为 13.82 元/公斤，环比上 涨 0.02 元/公斤。利润方面，截至 8 月 22 日，自繁自养生猪养殖 利润为 33.95 元/头，环比增加 33.95 元/头；外购仔猪养殖利润为 -151.8 元/头，环比增加 5.25 元/头；猪粮比价为 5.84，周环比持 平。 投资咨询号： 上周全国生猪价格整体震荡运行，但市场仍表现区域分化。南 方地区受二育以及调运等支撑，生猪价格小幅上涨，北方地区养殖 企业出栏增量，但需求支撑有限，生猪价格继续走弱。目前猪价持 续磨底，养殖端抗价情绪升温，局部二育少量入场支撑行情。政策 方面，据国家发展改革委监测，近日全国平均猪粮比价跌至 6∶1 以下，按照《完善政府猪肉储备调节机制做好猪肉市场保供稳价工 作预案》规定，进入三级预警区间。为促进生猪市场平稳运行，近 期国家发展改革委将会同有关部门开展中央冻猪肉 ...

财达期货｜股指期货周报 财达期货｜股指期货周报 2025-8-25 研究员 姓名：李津文 从业资格号： F0244287 Z0012495 持续上攻，屡创新高 行情回顾: 上周四个股指期货品种继续大幅上行，其中沪深 300 与中证 500涨幅相对较大。四个股指期货品种基差部分仍为期货贴水模式， 贴水深度有所改善。期指主力合约期货-现货基差，IH 收于 13.39， IF 收于 16，IC 收于-12.45，IM 收于-14.34。 投资咨询号： 上周 A 股延续了此前的普涨态势。在日均成交额逼近 2.6 万亿 关口的环境下，沪指突破 2021 年牛市高点并站上 3800 点，向上进 攻态势明显。截至 8 月 22 日，板块已经出现了轮动，但是还是在 近期强势的板块，涨幅较大的板块已经滞涨，低位切换的并不明显。 整体看，强势运行是市场给出的态度，但放大周期看风险还是存在 的。 综合分析： 从各类资金情况来看，此轮行情持续到现在主要的发起者和推 动者并非散户；事实上本轮行情从起步到加速，核心线索都是围绕 产业趋势和业绩。随着之前发行的产品整体步入盈亏平衡区域，市 场会有个新旧资金接力的过程；未来行情的延续需要的是 ...

财达期货｜焦煤焦炭周报 2025-08-25 市场情绪回落，双焦期价以跌为主 【期现行情】 上周焦煤 2601 合约周五收于 1162，周跌幅 5.53%，现货市场主流地区报价暂 稳运行。 研究员 上周焦炭 2601 合约周五收于 1678.5，周跌幅 2.95%，现货市场主流地区报价 暂稳为主。 姓名：申伟光 【基本面分析】 综合看：上周焦煤供应小幅回落，需求以稳为主，从盘面看，上周焦煤 2601 合约大幅下跌，跌破 20 日均线支撑，短期以空头趋势对待。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 数据来源：同花顺、wind，mysteel、财达期货研发部 第 1 页 共 5 页 从 业 资 格 号 ： F03088716 投 资 咨 询 号 ： Z0019628 财达期货｜ 焦煤焦炭周报 财达期货｜ 焦煤焦炭周报 焦煤： 供应端：上周全国 523 家炼焦煤矿山核定产能利用率 85.2%，环比上升 1.5%。 全国 314 家独立洗煤厂产能利用率 36.1%，环比下降 0.41%；精煤日均产量 25.7 万 吨，环比减少 0.7 万吨。煤矿端扰动不断，煤矿主产区超产核查持续进行，部分煤 矿执行 276 工作日生产， ...

财达期货｜螺纹钢、铁矿石 周报 财达期货｜螺纹钢、铁矿石 周报 2025-08-25 市场开始逐步交易弱现实，螺矿盘面延续偏弱运行 研究员 Z0017173 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 第 1 页 共 9 页 【螺纹钢】 姓名：薛国鹏 F3073406 期货方面：本周螺纹 10 合约在多头主力减仓驱动下延续小幅下挫。截止周 五，螺纹 10 合约收于 3119 元/吨，环比上周下跌 69.0 元，周 跌幅 2.16%。 从 业 资 格 号 ： 现货方面：本周螺纹主流地区价格普遍小幅下调，整体成交一般。截止周 五，全国螺纹平均报价下调 49 元至 3335 元/吨；其中上海地区 螺纹价格下调 40 元至 3280 元/吨；杭州地区螺纹价格下调 30 元至 3310 元/吨；北京地区螺纹价格下调 50 元至 3240 元/吨； 天津地区螺纹价格下调 50 元至 3270 元/吨；广州地区螺纹价格 下调 50 元至 3300 元/吨。 投 资 咨 询 号 ： 基 本 面：供给方面：全国 247 家钢厂高炉开工率 83.36%，环比减少 0.23%， 同比增加 5.89%；高炉炼铁产能利用率 90.25%，环比增 ...

F0244287 财达期货｜贵金属周报 2025-08-25 投资咨询号： Z0012495 9 月降息呼之欲出 金价重返升势 研究员 上周金价先抑后扬，纽约金价收盘在每盎司 3417 美元，沪金 收盘于每克 781.12 元。 从业资格号： 俄乌冲突何时结束仍迷雾重重 姓名：李津文 财达期货｜贵金属周报 财达期货｜贵金属周报 由，抗拒降息。但现在来看，鲍威尔也开始妥协。随着特朗普不断 向鲍威尔施压，以及特朗普更换美联储理事，让自已的亲信米兰担 任美联储理事，美联储副主席也开始发声支持降息，美联储内部由 原来都坚称应暂不降息而转为支持降息声音渐增。鲍威尔明年 5 月 肯定离任，这是最后一次在杰克逊霍尔央行年会上讲话，既然特朗 普政府要降息，金融市场希望降息，美联储内部支持降息声音变大， 鲍威尔为什么非要特立独行，顺水推舟不好吗？可能通胀未来是可 能反弹，但就业数据不是已经明显走弱了吗？继 7 月非农就业数据 大幅走低后，美国上周初请失业救济人数录得近三个月来最大增幅， 显示裁员或在增加，进一步加剧劳动力市场走弱的迹象。美国劳工 部上周四表示，截至 8 月 16 日当周，失业救济初请人数经季调后 增加 1.1 ...

财达期货｜螺纹钢、铁矿石 周报 财达期货｜螺纹钢、铁矿石 周报 2025-08-18 预期兑现叠加技术面背离，螺矿盘面短期偏弱运行 研究员 提涨落地，导致长流程钢厂利润继续小幅收缩。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 第 2 页 共 9 页 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 第 1 页 共 9 页 【螺纹钢】 姓名：薛国鹏 F3073406 期货方面：本周螺纹 10 合约在空头主力增仓驱动下开始破位小幅下挫。截 止周五，螺纹 10 合约收于 3188 元/吨，环比上周下跌 25.0 元， 周跌幅 0.78%。 从 业 资 格 号 ： 现货方面：本周螺纹主流地区价格普遍小幅下调，整体成交一般。截止周 五，全国螺纹平均报价下调 10 元至 3384 元/吨；其中上海地区 螺纹价格下调 20 元至 3320 元/吨；杭州地区螺纹价格下调 40 元至 3340 元/吨；北京地区螺纹价格下调 10 元至 3290 元/吨； 天津地区螺纹价格维持不变 3320 元/吨；广州地区螺纹价格下 调 20 元至 3350 元/吨。 投 资 咨 询 号 ： 基 本 面：供给方面：全国 247 家钢厂高炉开工率 83.59%，环比减 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the four stock index futures varieties showed a continuous upward trend, with relatively large increases in CSI 1000 and CSI 500. The basis of the four stock index futures varieties remained in the futures discount mode, and the discount depth improved. The A - share market continued to break through and reach a new high, with small - cap growth styles relatively dominant, and sectors such as communication, electronics, and power equipment leading the way, while the banking sector declined significantly. There was a certain market rotation, and in the long run, industries supported by national policies will maintain an upward - trending oscillation [3]. - In July, external demand remained resilient beyond expectations, but domestic demand - related indicators declined. Extreme weather and investment decline dragged down industrial production, and the growth rate of the service production index also slightly declined. Investment growth in July dropped significantly, especially in manufacturing and real estate development. Social retail growth declined in July due to the gap in subsidy funds and the overdraft of subsequent consumption by the "618 Shopping Festival". It is expected that Sino - US economic and trade relations will remain in a phased stable state, and exports in the second half of the year are expected to maintain strong resilience [4][5]. - Next week, the stock index will continue to rise with oscillations in an environment of high trading volume and rapid sector rotation. To break through the integer mark and the previous bull - market high of 3731, both the weight and technology sectors need to work together [5]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Market Performance - Last week, the four stock index futures varieties showed a continuous upward trend. The basis of the futures - spot of the main contracts of stock index futures was 13.52 for IH, 7.05 for IF, - 37.57 for IC, and - 31.3 for IM. The A - share market continued to break through and reach a new high, with small - cap growth styles relatively dominant. Only the banking sector closed down, and there was a certain market rotation [3]. Macroeconomic Situation - In July, external demand remained resilient, but domestic demand - related indicators declined. Extreme weather and investment decline dragged down industrial production, and the growth rate of the service production index also slightly declined. Investment growth dropped significantly, especially in manufacturing and real estate development. Social retail growth declined due to the gap in subsidy funds and the overdraft of subsequent consumption by the "618 Shopping Festival". It is expected that exports in the second half of the year will maintain strong resilience [4][5]. Market Outlook - Next week, the stock index will continue to rise with oscillations in an environment of high trading volume and rapid sector rotation. To break through the integer mark and the previous bull - market high of 3731, both the weight and technology sectors need to work together [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Gold prices are likely to strengthen in the medium - term despite a possible bumpy upward path, as the Fed's new round of interest rate cuts is a major background factor, and the US dollar is in a downward trend [5]. - A September interest rate cut by the Fed is still a high - probability event, though it may shift from a more aggressive 50 - basis - point cut to a 25 - basis - point cut [5]. 3. Summary by Related Content Gold Price - Last week, the gold price oscillated downward. The main contract 2510 of the Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold futures closed at $3381 per ounce, and Shanghai gold closed at 775 yuan per gram [1]. US - Russia Negotiation - The negotiation between Trump and Putin in Alaska didn't result in any agreement. Trump claimed to hold a US - Russia - Ukraine tripartite meeting soon, and Putin hopes to resolve the Ukraine crisis peacefully. However, the key issue is the extent of Ukraine's compromise on the territorial problem [2]. US Economic Data and Interest Rate Cut Expectations - In July, the US CPI showed that inflation didn't worsen. The year - on - year growth was 2.7% (estimated 2.8%, previous 2.7%), and the month - on - month growth was 0.2% (estimated 0.2%, previous 0.3%). The core CPI (excluding food and energy) had a year - on - year growth of 3.1% (estimated 3%, previous 2.9%) and a month - on - month growth of 0.3% (estimated 0.3%, previous 0.2%) [4]. - The US July PPI had an unexpected increase. The month - on - month growth was 0.9% (far exceeding the market expectation of 0.2%), and the year - on - year increase was 3.3%, higher than the Fed's 2% inflation target. This data made the market's expectation of a September interest rate cut by the Fed cool down slightly, with the probability dropping from nearly 100% to 92% [5]. - A September interest rate cut is still likely, with a possible reduction of 25 basis points instead of 50. Trump wants the interest rate to drop to 1%, while the US Treasury Secretary suggests a neutral rate of 3%. A total of 150 basis points of cuts are expected, with 2 - 3 cuts of 25 basis points each this year and reaching 3% next year [5].

财达期货｜铜周报 2025-8-18 财达期货｜铜周报 供需方面，SMM 数据显示铜精矿 TC 指数报元吨-37.68 美元/吨，环比 上涨。SMM 周度漆包线行业机台开机率环比下降 0.2 个百分点至 78.4%，新 增订单下降 3.18 个百分点。淡季周期下需求疲软、铜价扰动交织，行业开机 率与订单延续收缩态势。铜线缆企业开工率 69.3%较上周继续降低；预期本 周开工率微降至 67.6%，因铜价高位抑制采购，市场暂无新需求增长点、终 端订单疲软致需求无实质改善。企业调研来看，企业称市场处传统淡季，消 费疲软及原料紧张制约生产，但订单较前期已有好转，预计 8 月整体新订单 比 7 月向好。终端方面，8 月乘用车销量保持平稳增长，但房地产成交面积 表现明显较弱。三大交易所库存环比增加 0.7 万吨。 研究员 姓名：张珩 从 业 资 格 号 ： 投 资 咨 询 号 ： 宏观方面，美国 7 月 PPI 月率录得 0.9%，为 2022 年以来最大增幅，暗 示未来几个月通胀将普遍上升。数据公布后，美联储官员反驳 9 月大幅降息 的预期，美指扩大涨幅，压制铜价。美俄领导人小范围会谈结束，会晤没有 达成具体协议，关注 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The overall performance of the live hog market last week was weak with regional differentiation, and the price may fluctuate at a low level in the short term; the corn market was weak and adjusted, and the futures main contract may continue to decline in the short term [5][9] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Live Hogs - Futures: The live hog futures first rose and then fell last week. The LH2511 contract closed at 13,945 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.38% from the previous week's settlement price [5] - Spot: As of August 15, the self - breeding and self - raising live hog breeding profit was 28.85 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 16.28 yuan/head; the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 157.05 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 22.91 yuan/head; the pig - grain ratio was 5.84, a week - on - week decrease of 0.09. The national live hog spot market showed regional differentiation last week, with the overall being weak. Supply pressure was high due to weight reduction and delayed slaughter in July, and high - temperature inhibited consumption, resulting in oversupply. However, after continuous price drops, farmers had resistance sentiment, and the price decline space was limited [5] Corn - Futures: Last week, the performance of the far - month contracts of corn futures was worse than that of the near - month contracts. The C2509 contract closed at 2,266 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.4% from the previous week's settlement price; the C2511 contract closed at 2,190 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.59% from the previous week's settlement price [7] - Spot: The national average spot price of corn was 2,394.12 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1.47 yuan/ton. The prices in ports were mostly stable with some minor adjustments [7] - Industrial Consumption: From August 7 to August 13, 2025, 149 major corn deep - processing enterprises in the country consumed 1.1406 million tons of corn, a decrease of 24,000 tons from the previous week. The processing volume of corn starch enterprises increased by 15,500 tons to 576,000 tons, and the weekly output of corn starch increased by 10,700 tons to 289,200 tons, with the weekly operating rate rising by 2.07% to 55.9%. The operating rate of the DDGS industry was 42.00%, a decrease of 1.08% from the previous week, and the weekly production decreased by 2,200 tons to 85,470 tons, a decrease of 2.51% [8] - Inventory: As of August 13, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 3.402 million tons, a decrease of 6.62%. As of August 15, the total corn inventory in the four northern ports was about 1.74 million tons, and the corn inventory in Guangdong ports was 750,000 tons [8] - Market Outlook: The national corn spot market was stable with a weak trend last week. Policy grain was continuously put into the market in the Northeast, and the market quotation declined slightly; traders in North China sold at high prices, increasing market circulation, and enterprises lowered purchase prices. Some starch enterprises resumed work, increasing the operating rate, while some alcohol enterprises continued maintenance, reducing the operating rate. In the short term, the corn market will be weakly adjusted, and the main contract on the futures market may continue to decline [9]