财达期货｜铜周报 2025-9-29 财达期货｜铜周报 铜价预期震荡偏强 F3084967 Z0018883 供需方面，自由港宣布印尼 Grasberg 矿遭遇不可抗力，预计印尼自由港 2026 年的产量可能比事件前的预估低约 35%；叠加加拿大 Hudbay 矿业因 秘鲁局势动荡暂时关闭了 Constancia 选矿厂引发了市场对铜供应链的担忧。 本周漆包线行业机台开机率未能延续回升态势，环比下降 0.2 个百分点，降 至 77.73%，新增订单亦环比下降 0.81 个百分点。周四铜价的意外冲高成 为扰动开机率未能如期回升的关键因素。展望下周，距离国庆假期仅有两个 交易日，高铜价对于终端的需求抑制明显，不排除个别漆包线企业有提前放 假的计划，SMM 预计下周漆包线行业机台开机率将回落至 73.53%。因铜价 大幅上涨，当前华北市场下游企业几乎备货需求全无，消费不佳令加工企业 考虑延长国庆期间放假安排。 研究员 姓名：张珩 从 业 资 格 号 ： 投 资 咨 询 号 ： 9 月 24 日，中国有色金属工业协会铜业分会第三届理事会第五次会议在 河北雄安新区召开，中国有色金属工业协会党委常委、副会长陈学森在总结 ...

财达期货｜贵金属周报 2025-09-29 美国短期经济数据反弹难改降息大趋势 上周金银价格继续走强，国际金价收盘于每盎司 3789 美元， 国际银价收盘于每盎司 46 美元。 从业资格号： 鲍威尔讲话进行预期管理 美联储主席鲍威尔上周对政策动向及经济形势表态，指出就业 市场下行风险增大，是促使美联储上周采取降息行动的关键原因。 鲍威尔表示，此举是政策立场转向"中性"的一步，并强调未来政 策没有预设方向。这仍符合鲍威尔的风格，在降息的同时要给市场 适当降温，防止市场预期过热，典型的预期管理大师，此讲话后美 元有所反弹，但实际上不会改变美联储还要降息的大趋势 十一长假期间会有哪些大事发生 马上面临国内十一长假，今年十一长假期间，美国方面会公 布 9 月非农数据。这当然值得高度关注。因为非农数据直接反映就 业状况，会是判断美联储政策动向的一个重要指标。由于 8 月非农 就业非常差，失业率也达到 4.3%的水平，虽不算很高，但是上升 的。9 月非农数据若仍不理想，会提高 10 月继续降息的预期。 另外，9 月美联储议息会议纪要也将在十一长假期间公布，从 中可以看出美联储 9 月做出降息决定的依据以及后面可能的政策 ...

财达期货｜螺纹钢、铁矿石 周报 姓名：薛国鹏 长流程钢厂：目前华东地区粗钢测算成本 2906 元，环比增加 6 元，螺纹高 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 第 1 页 共 9 页 财达期货｜螺纹钢、铁矿石 周报 2025-09-29 临近双节资金逐步离场，螺矿盘面小幅下挫 【螺纹钢】 研究员 Z0017173 期货方面：本周螺纹 01 合约在空头主力增仓驱动下维持调整走势。截止周 五，螺纹 01 合约收于 3114 元/吨，环比上周下跌 58 元，周跌 幅 1.83%。 从 业 资 格 号 ： F3073406 现货方面：本周螺纹主流地区价格开始涨跌互现，整体成交略微转弱。截 止周五，全国螺纹平均报价下调 11 元至 3288 元/吨；其中上海 地区螺纹价格维持不变 3260 元/吨；杭州地区螺纹价格上调 10 元至 3310 元/吨；北京地区螺纹价格下调 10 元至 3170 元/吨； 天津地区螺纹价格上调 10 元至 3220 元/吨；广州地区螺纹价格 下调 10 元至 3320 元/吨。 投 资 咨 询 号 ： 基 本 面：供给方面：全国 247 家钢厂高炉开工率 84.45%，环比增加 0.47%， ...

姓名：李津文 F0244287 Z0012495 临近长假，避险为主 研究员 财达期货｜股指期货周报 财达期货｜股指期货周报 2025-9-29 行情回顾: 从业资格号： 上周四个股指期货品种走势以震荡上涨为主基调，其中中证 500 和沪深 300 上涨幅度相对较大。四个股指期货品种基差走势贴 水深度有所改善，但大部分合约仍保持期货贴水模式。期指主力合 约期货-现货基差，IH 收于 3.38，IF 收于-25.05，IC 收于-160.91， IM 收于-208.39。 投资咨询号： 上周 A 股市场整体呈现震荡向上走势，中小盘指数表现相对较 好。目前主要指数都运行到历史压力位，面临方向的选择，周线缩 量是正常表现。板块已经出现了轮动，风电、化纤、化肥等前期调 整的板块，在本周有短期企稳的特征。国庆节前各路资金均有减仓 避险需求。反应在盘面上，前期受到杠杆资金介入较深的算力、创 新药等板块在周五出现下跌，同时会有少量资金博弈国庆的消费情 况。另外，市场在这个位置横向运动了 5 周，没有特殊事件的影响 和资金的强势拉升，这个位置短期不具备突破的能力。 综合分析： 美联储降息周期中，海外资金或将加速加量流入中国资 ...

财达期货｜ 焦煤焦炭周报 财达期货｜焦煤焦炭周报 2025-09-29 焦钢博弈剧烈，双焦期价震荡运行 【期现行情】 上周焦煤 2601 合约周五收于 1196.5，周跌幅 2.88%，现货市场主流地区报价 偏强运行。 研究员 上周焦炭 2601 合约周五收于 1692.5，周跌幅 2.65%，现货市场主流地区报价 暂稳为主。 姓名：申伟光 【基本面分析】 焦煤： 供应端：上周全国 523 家炼焦煤矿山核定产能利用率 86.5%，环比上升 1.8%。 全国 314 家独立洗煤厂产能利用率 38.2%，环比上升 0.8%；精煤日均产量 27.5 万 吨，环比增加 0.7 万吨。上周，产地煤矿缓慢恢复生产，炼焦煤矿山核定产能利用 率呈上升趋势，除部分煤矿有停限产情况外，产地多数煤矿开工维持正常。生态环 境保护督察组分别向主要省份反馈，提到继续要推进生态环境隐患整治、煤炭主产 地继续严格落实煤炭总量控制等内容，市场预期中长期煤炭总量增长受限。库存方 面，当前焦煤采购仍较为积极，炼焦煤矿山原煤库存及洗煤厂精煤库存下降。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 数据来源：同花顺、wind，mysteel、财达期货研发部 第 ...

财达期货｜生猪玉米周报 财达期货｜生猪、玉米周报 2025-09-29 生猪价格重心下移，玉米盘面低位震荡 研究员 姓名：田金莲 F3046737 Z0015545 生猪 上周生猪期货延续弱势，LH2511 合约报收 12575 元/吨，较前 周结算价下跌 2.03%。 从业资格号： 投资咨询号： 现货方面，全国外三元生猪市场价为 12.76 元/公斤，环比下 跌 0.15 元/公斤。利润方面，截至 9 月 26 日，自繁自养生猪养殖 利润为-74.11 元/头，环比下降 49.67 元/头；外购仔猪养殖利润 为-236.57 元/头，环比下降 37.26 元/头；猪粮比价为 5.44，周环 比下降 0.2。 上周全国生猪现货价格震荡偏弱，头部集团厂供应放量，需求 端未有明显改善，部分地区受台风天气影响，市场整体成交一般， 价格支撑乏力，生猪价格持续弱势调整。目前持续跌价后，价格已 低至成本线以下，养殖户低价出栏抵触情绪增加，加之双节消费带 动，下游产品备货效应有所显现，短期生猪价格或趋稳调整。盘面 来看，供大于求背景下，盘面重心持续下移，继续关注市场出栏节 奏及需求变化情况。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall A-share market showed a narrow-range volatile trend last week with significant structural industry differentiation. The science and technology sector remained the market's mainstay despite increased volatility. The market demonstrated strong resilience and stable sentiment. Looking ahead, the A-share market may face structural adjustments and overall range-bound fluctuations [3][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - Last week, the four stock index futures varieties mainly showed a volatile consolidation trend. The adjustment amplitudes of the Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 were relatively large. The basis of the four stock index futures varieties continued to develop towards deep discounts, and most contracts maintained the futures discount mode. The futures-spot basis of the main contracts of the index futures were as follows: IH at 3.66, IF at -37.52, IC at -186.35, and IM at -247.39 [3]. - The A-share market showed a narrow-range volatile trend last week with significant structural industry differentiation. After the communication computing power led the market, the new energy, semiconductor, and robot sectors gradually showed a leading trend. The science and technology sector remained the market's mainstay despite increased volatility [3]. 3.2 Comprehensive Analysis - There were many information catalysts related to science and technology recently. For example, NVIDIA invested in Intel and would jointly develop high-performance chips for PCs and AI data centers with it, US technology companies invested in UK data centers, Huawei first clearly disclosed the Hetu series of AI chip plans, and Chinese technology companies adapted domestic chips. The mainstay position of science and technology did not change significantly [4]. 3.3 Outlook - The social retail and industrial added value data released last week showed that after the marginal effect of the "two important and two new" policies gradually faded, domestic demand might stall again. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, but the interest rate cut guidance for 2026 was less than market expectations. The A-share market may face structural adjustments and overall range-bound fluctuations in the future [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - After the Fed's 25 - basis - point interest rate cut, the short - term realization effect of gold and silver prices has passed, and they are back in a bull market. The logic supporting the medium - and long - term rise in gold prices remains unchanged, and they are expected to reach new highs in the future. Silver has greater price elasticity [2][3][6]. - Although Fed Chairman Powell's speech was slightly hawkish, it actually left room for further interest rate cuts. The dot - plot shows a cumulative 75 - basis - point interest rate cut this year, in line with market expectations. There is a high probability that the interest rate cut process will accelerate next year [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Content Fed Interest Rate Cut Situation - Last week, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, bringing the federal funds rate to between 4.00% - 4.25%. This is the first interest rate cut since December 2024. The cut occurred when the economy was not in recession but the risk was rising [2]. - Fed Chairman Powell said the US job market showed signs of weakness, with slower new job creation and a nascent rise in the unemployment rate. However, the current inflation level in the US remains stubborn, and there is still pressure on "core inflation" in the service industry [2]. Market Reaction to Interest Rate Cut - After the interest rate cut was announced, the gold price briefly corrected, a classic "buy the rumor, sell the fact" market performance. But on Friday, the bulls returned, and the prices almost recovered their losses [3]. Reasons for Future Interest Rate Cuts - Trump values the reduction of the US interest burden after interest rate cuts. With $37 trillion in US debt, $9 trillion is foreign debt. Interest rate cuts also reduce manufacturing costs, benefit the real estate industry, and support the US stock market, so Trump will continue to push for interest rate cuts [4]. - There is a high probability that the new Fed Chairman after Powell's departure in May next year will support Trump's interest - rate - cut tendency, accelerating the interest - rate - cut process [3][4]. Outlook for Gold and Silver Prices - In the medium and long term, there is a high certainty that the US federal funds rate will drop to around 3%, and the process of slow interest rate cuts will lead to a gradual rise in gold and silver prices [5]. - After the short - term realization effect, gold and silver prices are regaining their upward momentum and are expected to reach new highs in the future. Silver has greater price elasticity [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For the hog market, supply - side negatives are pressuring hog prices. The current market has an oversupply situation, and short - term prices will likely remain in low - level oscillations. However, approaching festivals and lower temperatures may boost demand and support prices. The hog futures price center is moving down, and short - term market trends depend on the slaughter rhythm and demand recovery [5]. - For the corn market, the spot market shows regional differences. There will likely be a narrow price adjustment in the short term due to cautious purchasing by downstream grain - using enterprises during the transition period between old and new grains. The corn futures should be watched for support at previous lows [6][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Hog - Futures: Last week, the hog futures broke through support and declined. The LH2511 contract closed at 12,825 yuan/ton, a 3.64% drop from the previous week's settlement price [5]. - Spot: The national average price of outer - ternary hogs was 12.91 yuan/kg, a week - on - week decrease of 0.58 yuan/kg [5]. - Profit: As of September 19, the self - breeding and self - raising hog farming profit was - 24.44 yuan/head, a week - on - week drop of 41.28 yuan/head; the profit from purchasing piglets for fattening was - 199.31 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 37.38 yuan/head. The hog - to - grain ratio was 5.64, a week - on - week decline of 0.17 [5]. - Market situation: The hog spot market remained weak last week. The supply from farmers increased, but demand didn't improve significantly, and the market's ability to absorb was limited. The monthly slaughter progress is slow, and there may be concentrated slaughter in the future [5]. Corn - Futures: Last week, the corn futures tested previous lows again. The C2511 contract closed at 2,168 yuan/ton, a 1.41% decline from the previous week's settlement price [6]. - Spot: The national average corn spot price was 2,359.8 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 6.28 yuan/ton. Different ports had varying price changes [6]. - Industrial consumption: From September 11 to 17, 2025, 149 major corn deep - processing enterprises consumed 115.63 million tons of corn, a decrease of 0.12 million tons from the previous week. Corn starch production and related data changed. The alcohol industry's operating rate decreased, and the production of DDGS declined [7]. - Inventory: As of September 17, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 2.34 billion tons, a decrease of 5.91%. As of September 19, the total corn inventory in four northern ports was about 700,000 tons, and the inventory in Guangdong ports was 430,000 tons [7]. - Market situation: The corn spot market showed regional differences. Northeast China had limited remaining grain inventory with stable - to - strong prices, while North China had a relatively loose supply and weak enterprise purchase prices. Demand varied by region, and feed enterprises mainly replenished inventory based on rigid demand [8][9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the demand for rebar starts to gradually recover with the arrival of the peak season, and rebar inventory begins to decline slightly. Attention should be paid to whether there are signs of marginal improvement in delivery warrants and foreign capital positions to support the stabilization and rebound of the futures market [5][8]. - The short - term import iron ore shipment volume shows a significant rebound, the arrival volume drops slightly, and port inventory still faces certain pressure. The demand side sees a slight increase in daily molten iron output and a simultaneous rebound in steel mill daily consumption. It is expected that the iron ore futures market will maintain a relatively strong consolidation trend [9]. 3. Summary by Sections Rebar - **Futures**: This week, the rebar 01 contract maintained a relatively strong operation driven by the increase in long - position main force positions. As of Friday, it closed at 3172 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan from last week, with a weekly increase of 1.44% [5]. - **Spot**: The mainstream rebar prices in various regions started to rise slightly this week, and overall transactions improved slightly. As of Friday, the national average rebar price rose 24 yuan to 3299 yuan/ton [5]. - **Fundamentals** - **Supply**: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 domestic steel mills was 83.98%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.15% and a year - on - year increase of 5.75%. The rebar weekly output decreased by 5.48 tons to 206.45 tons week - on - week, still at a low level year - on - year [5]. - **Demand**: This week, both building material trading volume and rebar apparent consumption increased slightly. The 5 - day average building material trading volume increased by 0.45 tons to 10.70 tons week - on - week, and rebar apparent consumption increased by 11.96 tons to 210.03 tons week - on - week [8]. - **Inventory**: This week, the inventory of five major steel products continued to accumulate slightly, while rebar inventory started to decline slightly. As of Friday, the total rebar inventory decreased by 3.58 tons to 650.28 tons [8]. - **Basis**: As of Friday, the lowest warehouse receipt quote for rebar in Shanghai was 3260 yuan/ton, with a premium of 88 yuan over the rebar 01 contract, a contraction of 5 yuan from last week [8]. Iron Ore - **Futures**: This week, the iron ore 01 contract maintained a relatively strong consolidation trend driven by the increase in long - position main force positions. As of Friday, it closed at 807.5 yuan/ton, up 8.0 yuan/ton from last week, with a weekly increase of 1.0% [8]. - **Spot**: This week, the prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties continued to rise slightly, and the prices of domestic iron ore concentrates started to rise steadily. Overall transactions were average [8]. - **Fundamentals** - **Supply**: As of the 15th, the total shipment volume of Australian and Brazilian iron ore was 2977.8 million tons, an increase of 648.2 million tons week - on - week. The arrival volume of 45 ports was 2362.3 million tons, a decrease of 85.7 million tons week - on - week [9]. - **Demand**: Currently, the daily average ore removal volume of 45 ports is 339.17 million tons, an increase of 7.89 million tons week - on - week. The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills is 241.02 million tons, an increase of 0.47 million tons from last week [9]. - **Inventory**: As of the 19th, the iron ore inventory of 45 ports continued to accumulate slightly, currently at 13801.08 million tons, a decrease of 48.39 million tons week - on - week [9]. - **Basis**: As of Friday, the Newman powder at Rizhao Port, the optimal delivery product, was 844 yuan/ton, with a premium of 36 yuan over the iron ore 01 contract, a contraction of 1 yuan from last week [9].