Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term rebound of US economic data cannot change the general trend of the Fed's interest rate cuts, and the bullish pattern of precious metals will continue [2][7][8] 3. Summary Based on Related Content Precious Metals Price Performance - Last week, the prices of gold and silver continued to strengthen. The international gold price closed at $3,789 per ounce, and the international silver price closed at $46 per ounce [3] Fed's Policy and Related Speeches - Fed Chairman Powell stated last week that the increasing downside risk in the job market was the key reason for the Fed's interest rate cut. He said this was a step towards a "neutral" policy stance and emphasized that there was no preset direction for future policies. His speech caused a slight rebound in the US dollar, but it won't change the Fed's trend of further interest rate cuts [4] Key Events During the National Day Holiday - During the upcoming National Day holiday in China, the US will release September non - farm payroll data. Since the August non - farm employment was very poor and the unemployment rate reached 4.3%, if the September data is still not ideal, it will increase the expectation of another interest rate cut in October. Also, the minutes of the September Fed's interest rate meeting will be released, which can show the basis for the Fed's September interest rate cut decision and possible future policies [5] Other Influential Factors - The US debt ceiling issue is a point of contention between the two parties. If no consensus is reached by the end of September, the US government may shut down on October 1st, which could affect the financial market [6] - Trump's sudden change of stance on the Russia - Ukraine conflict, starting to take a tougher line on Russia, means that ending the conflict remains difficult and will continue to support the gold price [6] - Last Friday's US economic data showed good short - term economic indicators, with a decline in the number of initial jobless claims, an upward revision of GDP, and a slight rebound in prices. The US dollar and Treasury yields rebounded initially, but the US dollar index closed significantly lower, and precious metal prices rose, indicating that the market believes the short - term economic rebound is not enough to make the Fed change its interest rate - cut plan [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - For rebar, short - term supply - demand conditions are gradually improving, with indicators such as inventory reduction and increased consumption showing the characteristics of the peak construction season, but the sustainability of inventory reduction needs further observation, and attention should be paid to factors like delivery warrants and foreign capital positions [5][8]. - For iron ore, short - term import shipments are slightly decreasing, while next week's arrivals are expected to increase slightly, and port inventory is under pressure. The demand side shows an increase in daily iron water production and steel mill consumption, and pre - holiday restocking supports the iron ore futures market [10]. 3. Summary by Category Rebar - **Futures**: The rebar 01 contract adjusted under the drive of increased short - position by main players, closing at 3114 yuan/ton on Friday, a weekly decline of 58 yuan or 1.83% [5]. - **Spot**: Mainstream rebar prices in various regions showed mixed trends, with the national average price down 11 yuan to 3288 yuan/ton [5]. - **Fundamentals** - **Supply**: The blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills increased, while the average operating rate and capacity utilization rate of 90 electric - arc furnace steel mills decreased. Rebar weekly output increased by 0.01 million tons to 2.0646 million tons, still at a low level year - on - year [5]. - **Demand**: Building material trading volume decreased slightly, while rebar apparent consumption increased slightly. The 5 - day average building material trading volume decreased by 0.05 million tons to 1.065 million tons, and rebar apparent consumption increased by 10.41 million tons to 2.2044 million tons, remaining at a low level in the same period [8]. - **Inventory**: The total rebar inventory decreased by 139,800 tons to 6.363 million tons, with social inventory down 133,200 tons to 4.7189 million tons and mill inventory down 6,600 tons to 1.6441 million tons [8]. - **Basis**: The Shanghai rebar lowest - cost delivery warrant was 3260 yuan/ton, with a premium of 146 yuan over the rebar 01 contract, an increase of 58 yuan week - on - week. It is expected that the rebar basis will likely shrink later [8]. Iron Ore - **Futures**: The iron ore 01 contract adjusted under the drive of reduced long - position by main players, closing at 790.0 yuan/ton on Friday, a weekly decline of 17.5 yuan/ton or 2.17% [8]. - **Spot**: Imported ore prices generally decreased slightly, while domestic iron concentrate prices remained stable, with average trading volume [8]. - **Fundamentals** - **Supply**: As of the 22nd, the total shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased by 2.05 million tons to 27.728 million tons. The arrivals at 45 ports increased by 3.127 million tons to 26.75 million tons [10]. - **Demand**: The daily average port clearance volume at 45 ports decreased by 27,700 tons to 3.364 million tons. The weekly average trading volume of port - spot iron ore increased by 174,000 tons to 1.297 million tons. The daily average hot - metal output of 247 steel mills increased by 13,400 tons to 2.4236 million tons [10]. - **Inventory**: As of the 26th, the iron ore inventory at 45 ports increased by 1.992 million tons to 140.0028 million tons, while the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 426,960 tons to 97.3639 million tons [10]. - **Basis**: The best - delivery Newman powder at Rizhao Port was 828 yuan/ton, with a premium of 38 yuan over the iron ore 01 contract, an increase of 2 yuan week - on - week. It is expected that the iron ore basis will likely shrink later [10].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market is in a wait - and - see state, and the probability of a significant short - term index - level correction is low. Whether trading volume can continue to increase is the key, and it's best to wait for the market to give signals [4] 3. Summaries by Related Content Market Review - Last week, the four stock index futures showed an oscillating upward trend, with relatively large increases in CSI 500 and SSE 500. The basis of the four stock index futures improved, but most contracts remained in the futures discount mode. The futures - spot basis of the main contracts were: IH at 3.38, IF at - 25.05, IC at - 160.91, and IM at - 208.39 [2] - The A - share market showed an oscillating upward trend last week, with small and medium - cap indexes performing relatively well. The main indexes have reached historical resistance levels and are facing a directional choice. Week - on - week trading volume contraction is normal. Sector rotation has occurred, with sectors like wind power, chemical fiber, and fertilizer showing short - term stabilization. Before the National Day, funds tend to reduce positions for risk - avoidance. Some sectors with high leverage such as computing power and innovative drugs fell on Friday, and a small amount of funds are speculating on National Day consumption [2] Comprehensive Analysis - During the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle, overseas funds may accelerate and increase their inflow into Chinese assets. The market will further speculate on the possibility of China's monetary authorities cutting interest rates and reserve requirements in Q4, which will provide important liquidity support for the market's upward movement [3][4]

Report Overview - Report Title: "Caid Futures | Coking Coal and Coke Weekly Report" - Report Date: September 29, 2025 - Core View: The coking coal and coke markets are experiencing intense competition between coking and steel enterprises, with both futures prices fluctuating. In the short term, attention should be paid to the support of the 10 - day moving average [3][5][9] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Key Points by Section 1. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Last week, the coking coal 2601 contract closed at 1196.5 on Friday, with a weekly decline of 2.88%. The spot market prices in mainstream areas showed a strong trend. The coke 2601 contract closed at 1692.5 on Friday, with a weekly decline of 2.65%. The spot market prices in mainstream areas remained stable [5] 2. Fundamental Analysis Coking Coal - **Supply Side**: The utilization rate of the approved production capacity of 523 coking coal mines nationwide was 86.5%, a month - on - month increase of 1.8%. The utilization rate of the production capacity of 314 independent coal washing plants was 38.2%, a month - on - month increase of 0.8%, and the daily output of clean coal was 275,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7,000 tons. Most mines maintained normal operations, but market expectations suggest that long - term coal production growth is limited. The inventory of raw coal in coking coal mines and clean coal in coal washing plants decreased [5] - **Demand Side**: After two consecutive rounds of price cuts for coke, coke enterprises' losses expanded, and some enterprises implemented production restrictions. However, high pig iron production, stable coke enterprise operations, and pre - National Day restocking demand led to good coking coal demand. Currently, the restocking is coming to an end, and enterprises are purchasing on - demand. The online auction prices of coking coal generally rose, but the increase slowed down over the weekend [6] - **Overall**: Last week, both the supply and demand of coking coal increased slightly. The coking coal 2601 contract fluctuated last week, closing below the 10 - day moving average on Friday. Short - term attention should be paid to the support of the 10 - day moving average [6] Coke - **Supply Side**: The utilization rate of the production capacity of all independent coking enterprises nationwide was 75.43%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.44%. The daily output was 663,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 38,000 tons. The profit per ton of coke for 30 sample coking enterprises was - 34 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 17 yuan/ton. Coking enterprises' production enthusiasm declined, and supply was restricted. The coking association proposed a price increase of 50 - 85 yuan/ton and a production restriction of over 30%. The spot price of coke at ports was strong, with general trading and a slight decrease in inventory [8] - **Demand Side**: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.45%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.47%. The daily pig iron output was 2.4236 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 13,400 tons. The steel mill profitability rate was 58.01%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.86%. Steel mills' demand for coke increased, but due to weak terminal consumption and reduced profitability, their restocking ability was limited, and they mainly purchased on - demand [8] - **Overall**: Last week, both the supply and demand of coke decreased. The coke 2601 contract fluctuated last week, closing below the 10 - day moving average on Friday. Short - term attention should be paid to the support of the 10 - day moving average [9] 3. Arbitrage - Last week, the coking coal - to - coke ratio dropped significantly, with an average of 1.41. It is currently at a relatively high level in the same period of history. Attention should be paid to the range of 1.35 - 1.55. Also, pay attention to the spot prices of coal and coke, downstream product demand, steel mill production, coking and steel enterprise profits, international macro - policies, and sudden risk impacts [9] 4. Inventory and Other Data - **Coking Coal Inventory**: Port inventory was 265,490 tons, a decrease of 16,700 tons; all - sample independent coking plants' inventory was 999,070 tons, an increase of 58,660 tons; 247 sample steel mills' inventory was 796,070 tons, an increase of 5,730 tons; the total inventory was 2,060,630 tons, an increase of 47,690 tons [10] - **Coke Inventory**: Port inventory was 196,060 tons, a decrease of 8,050 tons; all - sample independent coking plants' inventory was 63,040 tons, a decrease of 3,370 tons; 247 sample steel mills' inventory was 661,310 tons, an increase of 16,640 tons; the total inventory was 920,410 tons, an increase of 5,220 tons [10] - **Operating Rates and Other Data**: The operating rate of coking enterprises with production capacity < 100 million tons was 52.95%, an increase of 1.05%; for those with 100 - 200 million tons, it was 71.89%, a decrease of 0.05%; for those > 200 million tons, it was 79.92%, a decrease of 0.13%. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.45%, a decrease of 0.47%. The steel mill profitability rate was 58.01%, a decrease of 0.86%. The cumulative pig iron production in August was 57,907,030 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.10%; the cumulative crude steel production in August was 67,180,570 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.80% [10]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The price of live pigs is in a weak adjustment, and may stabilize and adjust in the short - term due to farmers' resistance to low - price sales and the double - festival consumption boost. The corn price has a downward expectation as new - season corn enters the harvest period and new grain has high moisture, and traders are not willing to build inventories [4][7] Summary by Related Catalogs Live Pigs - Futures: The LH2511 contract of live pig futures closed at 12,575 yuan/ton last week, down 2.03% from the previous week's settlement price [4] - Spot: The national average market price of outer three - yuan live pigs was 12.76 yuan/kg, a week - on - week decrease of 0.15 yuan/kg [4] - Profit: As of September 26, the self - breeding and self - raising profit was - 74.11 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 49.67 yuan/head; the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 236.57 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 37.26 yuan/head; the pig - grain ratio was 5.44, a week - on - week decrease of 0.2 [4] - Market situation: The supply of leading group factories increased, demand did not improve significantly, and affected by typhoon weather in some areas, the overall market transaction was average, with weak price support. After continuous price drops, farmers' resistance to low - price sales increased, and the downstream product stocking effect appeared due to double - festival consumption [4] Corn - Futures: The C2511 contract of corn futures closed at 2,178 yuan/ton last week, up 0.32% from the previous week's settlement price [5] - Spot: The national average spot price of corn was 2,365.29 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 5.49 yuan/ton [5] - Port prices: In Jinzhou Port, the price of corn with 15% moisture and 720 bulk density was 2,240 - 2,260 yuan/ton, with the high end up 10 yuan/ton; the flat - hatch price of 15% moisture corn was 2,300 - 2,310 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. In Bayuquan Port, the price of corn with 15% moisture and 720 bulk density was 2,240 - 2,260 yuan/ton, with the high end up 10 yuan/ton; the flat - hatch price of 15% moisture corn was 2,300 - 2,310 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. In Guangdong Shekou Port, the transaction price of 15% moisture bulk corn was 2,410 - 2,430 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton, and the price of first - grade corn was 2,460 - 2,480 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [5] - Industrial consumption: From September 18 to September 24, 2025, 149 major corn deep - processing enterprises consumed 1.1424 million tons of corn, a week - on - week decrease of 13,900 tons. The processing volume of corn starch enterprises was 534,600 tons, an increase of 17,400 tons from the previous week; the weekly national corn starch output was 260,500 tons, an increase of 11,400 tons from the previous week; the weekly operating rate was 50.36%, an increase of 2.2% from the previous week. The operating rate of the DDGS industry was 47.88%, a decrease of 2.43% from the previous week; the weekly production of DDGS in sample enterprises was 97,440 tons, a decrease of 4,950 tons from the previous week, a decrease of 4.83% [6] - Inventory: As of September 24, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 2.118 million tons, a decrease of 9.49%. As of September 26, the total corn inventory of the four northern ports was about 650,000 tons, and the corn inventory in Guangdong ports was 370,000 tons [6] - Market situation: The national corn spot market first fell and then rose. Farmers in the Northeast had high enthusiasm for selling grain, and the purchase price decreased; the market circulation in North China decreased, and the enterprise purchase price increased slightly. The operating rate of corn starch enterprises increased, while the operating rate of alcohol enterprises decreased. Feed enterprises had certain pre - festival stocking needs, but the overall purchase volume was limited [7] - Operation suggestion: As the National Day holiday approaches, it is recommended to hold a light position [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall A-share market showed a narrow-range volatile trend last week with significant structural industry differentiation. The science and technology sector remained the market's mainstay despite increased volatility. The market demonstrated strong resilience and stable sentiment. Looking ahead, the A-share market may face structural adjustments and overall range-bound fluctuations [3][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - Last week, the four stock index futures varieties mainly showed a volatile consolidation trend. The adjustment amplitudes of the Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 were relatively large. The basis of the four stock index futures varieties continued to develop towards deep discounts, and most contracts maintained the futures discount mode. The futures-spot basis of the main contracts of the index futures were as follows: IH at 3.66, IF at -37.52, IC at -186.35, and IM at -247.39 [3]. - The A-share market showed a narrow-range volatile trend last week with significant structural industry differentiation. After the communication computing power led the market, the new energy, semiconductor, and robot sectors gradually showed a leading trend. The science and technology sector remained the market's mainstay despite increased volatility [3]. 3.2 Comprehensive Analysis - There were many information catalysts related to science and technology recently. For example, NVIDIA invested in Intel and would jointly develop high-performance chips for PCs and AI data centers with it, US technology companies invested in UK data centers, Huawei first clearly disclosed the Hetu series of AI chip plans, and Chinese technology companies adapted domestic chips. The mainstay position of science and technology did not change significantly [4]. 3.3 Outlook - The social retail and industrial added value data released last week showed that after the marginal effect of the "two important and two new" policies gradually faded, domestic demand might stall again. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, but the interest rate cut guidance for 2026 was less than market expectations. The A-share market may face structural adjustments and overall range-bound fluctuations in the future [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - After the Fed's 25 - basis - point interest rate cut, the short - term realization effect of gold and silver prices has passed, and they are back in a bull market. The logic supporting the medium - and long - term rise in gold prices remains unchanged, and they are expected to reach new highs in the future. Silver has greater price elasticity [2][3][6]. - Although Fed Chairman Powell's speech was slightly hawkish, it actually left room for further interest rate cuts. The dot - plot shows a cumulative 75 - basis - point interest rate cut this year, in line with market expectations. There is a high probability that the interest rate cut process will accelerate next year [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Content Fed Interest Rate Cut Situation - Last week, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, bringing the federal funds rate to between 4.00% - 4.25%. This is the first interest rate cut since December 2024. The cut occurred when the economy was not in recession but the risk was rising [2]. - Fed Chairman Powell said the US job market showed signs of weakness, with slower new job creation and a nascent rise in the unemployment rate. However, the current inflation level in the US remains stubborn, and there is still pressure on "core inflation" in the service industry [2]. Market Reaction to Interest Rate Cut - After the interest rate cut was announced, the gold price briefly corrected, a classic "buy the rumor, sell the fact" market performance. But on Friday, the bulls returned, and the prices almost recovered their losses [3]. Reasons for Future Interest Rate Cuts - Trump values the reduction of the US interest burden after interest rate cuts. With $37 trillion in US debt, $9 trillion is foreign debt. Interest rate cuts also reduce manufacturing costs, benefit the real estate industry, and support the US stock market, so Trump will continue to push for interest rate cuts [4]. - There is a high probability that the new Fed Chairman after Powell's departure in May next year will support Trump's interest - rate - cut tendency, accelerating the interest - rate - cut process [3][4]. Outlook for Gold and Silver Prices - In the medium and long term, there is a high certainty that the US federal funds rate will drop to around 3%, and the process of slow interest rate cuts will lead to a gradual rise in gold and silver prices [5]. - After the short - term realization effect, gold and silver prices are regaining their upward momentum and are expected to reach new highs in the future. Silver has greater price elasticity [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For the hog market, supply - side negatives are pressuring hog prices. The current market has an oversupply situation, and short - term prices will likely remain in low - level oscillations. However, approaching festivals and lower temperatures may boost demand and support prices. The hog futures price center is moving down, and short - term market trends depend on the slaughter rhythm and demand recovery [5]. - For the corn market, the spot market shows regional differences. There will likely be a narrow price adjustment in the short term due to cautious purchasing by downstream grain - using enterprises during the transition period between old and new grains. The corn futures should be watched for support at previous lows [6][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Hog - Futures: Last week, the hog futures broke through support and declined. The LH2511 contract closed at 12,825 yuan/ton, a 3.64% drop from the previous week's settlement price [5]. - Spot: The national average price of outer - ternary hogs was 12.91 yuan/kg, a week - on - week decrease of 0.58 yuan/kg [5]. - Profit: As of September 19, the self - breeding and self - raising hog farming profit was - 24.44 yuan/head, a week - on - week drop of 41.28 yuan/head; the profit from purchasing piglets for fattening was - 199.31 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 37.38 yuan/head. The hog - to - grain ratio was 5.64, a week - on - week decline of 0.17 [5]. - Market situation: The hog spot market remained weak last week. The supply from farmers increased, but demand didn't improve significantly, and the market's ability to absorb was limited. The monthly slaughter progress is slow, and there may be concentrated slaughter in the future [5]. Corn - Futures: Last week, the corn futures tested previous lows again. The C2511 contract closed at 2,168 yuan/ton, a 1.41% decline from the previous week's settlement price [6]. - Spot: The national average corn spot price was 2,359.8 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 6.28 yuan/ton. Different ports had varying price changes [6]. - Industrial consumption: From September 11 to 17, 2025, 149 major corn deep - processing enterprises consumed 115.63 million tons of corn, a decrease of 0.12 million tons from the previous week. Corn starch production and related data changed. The alcohol industry's operating rate decreased, and the production of DDGS declined [7]. - Inventory: As of September 17, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 2.34 billion tons, a decrease of 5.91%. As of September 19, the total corn inventory in four northern ports was about 700,000 tons, and the inventory in Guangdong ports was 430,000 tons [7]. - Market situation: The corn spot market showed regional differences. Northeast China had limited remaining grain inventory with stable - to - strong prices, while North China had a relatively loose supply and weak enterprise purchase prices. Demand varied by region, and feed enterprises mainly replenished inventory based on rigid demand [8][9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the demand for rebar starts to gradually recover with the arrival of the peak season, and rebar inventory begins to decline slightly. Attention should be paid to whether there are signs of marginal improvement in delivery warrants and foreign capital positions to support the stabilization and rebound of the futures market [5][8]. - The short - term import iron ore shipment volume shows a significant rebound, the arrival volume drops slightly, and port inventory still faces certain pressure. The demand side sees a slight increase in daily molten iron output and a simultaneous rebound in steel mill daily consumption. It is expected that the iron ore futures market will maintain a relatively strong consolidation trend [9]. 3. Summary by Sections Rebar - **Futures**: This week, the rebar 01 contract maintained a relatively strong operation driven by the increase in long - position main force positions. As of Friday, it closed at 3172 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan from last week, with a weekly increase of 1.44% [5]. - **Spot**: The mainstream rebar prices in various regions started to rise slightly this week, and overall transactions improved slightly. As of Friday, the national average rebar price rose 24 yuan to 3299 yuan/ton [5]. - **Fundamentals** - **Supply**: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 domestic steel mills was 83.98%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.15% and a year - on - year increase of 5.75%. The rebar weekly output decreased by 5.48 tons to 206.45 tons week - on - week, still at a low level year - on - year [5]. - **Demand**: This week, both building material trading volume and rebar apparent consumption increased slightly. The 5 - day average building material trading volume increased by 0.45 tons to 10.70 tons week - on - week, and rebar apparent consumption increased by 11.96 tons to 210.03 tons week - on - week [8]. - **Inventory**: This week, the inventory of five major steel products continued to accumulate slightly, while rebar inventory started to decline slightly. As of Friday, the total rebar inventory decreased by 3.58 tons to 650.28 tons [8]. - **Basis**: As of Friday, the lowest warehouse receipt quote for rebar in Shanghai was 3260 yuan/ton, with a premium of 88 yuan over the rebar 01 contract, a contraction of 5 yuan from last week [8]. Iron Ore - **Futures**: This week, the iron ore 01 contract maintained a relatively strong consolidation trend driven by the increase in long - position main force positions. As of Friday, it closed at 807.5 yuan/ton, up 8.0 yuan/ton from last week, with a weekly increase of 1.0% [8]. - **Spot**: This week, the prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties continued to rise slightly, and the prices of domestic iron ore concentrates started to rise steadily. Overall transactions were average [8]. - **Fundamentals** - **Supply**: As of the 15th, the total shipment volume of Australian and Brazilian iron ore was 2977.8 million tons, an increase of 648.2 million tons week - on - week. The arrival volume of 45 ports was 2362.3 million tons, a decrease of 85.7 million tons week - on - week [9]. - **Demand**: Currently, the daily average ore removal volume of 45 ports is 339.17 million tons, an increase of 7.89 million tons week - on - week. The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills is 241.02 million tons, an increase of 0.47 million tons from last week [9]. - **Inventory**: As of the 19th, the iron ore inventory of 45 ports continued to accumulate slightly, currently at 13801.08 million tons, a decrease of 48.39 million tons week - on - week [9]. - **Basis**: As of Friday, the Newman powder at Rizhao Port, the optimal delivery product, was 844 yuan/ton, with a premium of 36 yuan over the iron ore 01 contract, a contraction of 1 yuan from last week [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint of the Report - After the interest rate cut, there may be a short - term price correction due to the realization of positive factors, but it is overall positive for non - ferrous metal prices in the medium term. There are also expectations of favorable policies in China. The supply - side contraction needs time to be transmitted, and the short - term slow recovery in demand and the pre - holiday stockpiling expectation are the main supporting factors. It is expected that copper prices will rebound slightly after a short - term correction and remain range - bound before the holiday [5] Summary According to the Directory 1. Supply and Demand Situation - The Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia remains shut down, and the rescue of seven trapped underground workers is ongoing, intensifying the tight copper ore situation. In September, smelting maintenance increased, and it is expected that the domestic smelting output will decline [4] - Last week, the enameled wire industry showed the characteristics of a slight increase in the operating rate and pressure on new orders. The machine operating rate rose to 77.93%, but the increase was less than expected. The SMM copper cable enterprise operating rate was 65.84%, down both month - on - month and year - on - year and lower than expected. The weekly operating rate of major domestic refined copper rod enterprises rose to 70.49%, up 2.96 percentage points month - on - month, 0.18 percentage points lower than expected, and down 8.83 percentage points year - on - year. It is expected that the operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises will rise to 73.86% this week [4] - Some enterprises in the sample started stockpiling for the National Day holiday production in advance to avoid the increase in raw material prices and costs caused by centralized stockpiling at the end of the month. Near the National Day holiday, refined copper rod enterprises will mainly focus on stockpiling and adjust the production rhythm according to downstream order demand [4] 2. Macroeconomic Situation - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut on Wednesday, which was in line with market expectations. It admitted that the labor market was weakening and mentioned rising inflation. The dot - plot showed that there may be two more interest rate cuts this year [4] 3. Market Review - Last week, the Shanghai copper main contract maintained a narrow - range shock at the beginning of the week. The 25 - basis - point interest rate cut announced by the Federal Reserve was in line with expectations, but the subsequent interest rate cut rhythm was slightly lower than expected. The market declined before and after the interest rate - setting meeting. Copper prices fell significantly on Thursday and stabilized slightly on Friday. The closing price of 79,910 yuan/ton was about 1.42% lower than the previous week [6]