1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The probability of a Fed rate cut in September has increased significantly, causing the gold price to strengthen again. If the Fed restarts the rate - cut channel, the gold price will return to a bull market in the medium and long term, but it is in a box - oscillation pattern in the short term [1][6] - Trump's tariff policies may lead to a stagflation effect, and the optimistic sentiment in the market about the impact of these policies on the economy is fading [2][4] - The weakening of the July non - farm payrolls data has increased the possibility of a Fed rate cut in September, and the probability has risen from 40% to 75%. Trump is angry about the non - farm data and blames the Bureau of Labor Statistics [5] 3. Summary by Related Content Gold Price Performance - Last week, the international gold price rebounded to $3416 per ounce, and the Shanghai gold price rebounded to 781 yuan per gram. Affected by the poor non - farm payrolls data on Friday, the gold price rose again [1][6] Fed Interest Rate Policy - At the July FOMC meeting, the Fed kept the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50%, the fifth time since early 2025. There were two dissenting votes, indicating deepening internal differences. Fed Chair Powell said future policy adjustments depend on all evidence, and his speech was considered hawkish [1] Trump's Tariff Policies - Trump imposed additional tariffs of 10% - 41% on imports from multiple countries and regions. These tariffs may penetrate into economic data in the coming months and cause a stagflation effect [3][4] Non - farm Payrolls Data - In July, non - farm employment increased by only 73,000, far lower than the expected 100,000, and the data for the previous two months was revised down by 258,000. The three - month growth rate was as low as 35,000. The unemployment rate remained at 4.2%, and the average hourly wage rose 0.3% month - on - month. The weakening of the employment market has increased the probability of a Fed rate cut in September [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The signals released by the 7.30 meeting fell short of expectations, causing significant short - term adjustments in the screw and ore futures markets. The short - term demand for rebar is affected by seasonality and has weakened, with inventory slightly increasing. After the policy expectations are fulfilled, the short - term driving logic of rebar may return to fundamentals, and the short - term futures market is expected to be weak under technical adjustments and off - season pressure. - The short - term import ore shipping volume has increased slightly, and the arrival volume is expected to gradually increase in the future. The port inventory will face certain pressure. On the demand side, the daily average molten iron volume continues to decrease slightly, and the steel mill's daily consumption has also declined. Steel mills continue the replenishment strategy in the short term. It is expected that the short - term iron ore futures market will follow the rebar trend and remain weak [4][6][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Rebar - **Futures**: The rebar 10 contract adjusted significantly under the reduction of long - position main force. As of Friday, it closed at 3203 yuan/ton, down 153 yuan from last week, a weekly decline of 4.56% [4]. - **Spot**: The prices of mainstream rebar regions generally decreased significantly, and the overall trading weakened. As of Friday, the national average rebar price dropped 76 yuan to 3395 yuan/ton, with different price drops in various regions [4]. - **Fundamentals** - **Supply**: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills in the country was 83.46%, unchanged from the previous week and up 2.18% year - on - year; the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 90.24%, down 0.57% from the previous week and up 1.37% year - on - year; the average operating rate of 90 electric furnace steel mills in the country was 74.21%, up 2.18% from the previous week and up 12.75% year - on - year; the average electric furnace capacity utilization rate was 57.05%, up 1.56% from the previous week and up 15.11% year - on - year. The weekly rebar output decreased by 0.9 tons to 211.06 tons, still at a low level year - on - year [4]. - **Short - process steel mills**: The estimated cost of electric furnaces in East China is 3215 yuan, down 15 yuan from the previous week. The electric furnace profit of rebar is a loss of 145 yuan, with the loss narrowing by 5 yuan from last week. The operating rate and capacity utilization rate of electric furnaces in the country continued to rise, with a slightly narrower increase [4]. - **Long - process steel mills**: The estimated cost of crude steel in East China is 2817 yuan, up 11 yuan from the previous week. The blast furnace profit of rebar is 253 yuan, narrowing by 21 yuan from last week. The domestic blast furnace operating rate did not change significantly, while the capacity utilization rate continued to decrease slightly. With the implementation of policy expectations, the price decline of finished products was more significant than that of raw materials, and the fourth round of coke price increase was implemented, resulting in a slight contraction of long - process steel mill profits [4]. - **Demand and Inventory** - **Demand**: The building materials trading volume and rebar apparent consumption both decreased slightly. The 5 - day average building materials trading volume decreased by 0.99 tons to 10.02 tons, and the rebar apparent consumption decreased by 13.17 tons to 203.41 tons, still at a low level in the same period [7]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products and rebar began to accumulate slightly. As of Friday, the total rebar inventory increased by 7.65 tons to 546.29 tons, still at a low level in the same period; the social rebar inventory increased by 11.17 tons to 384.14 tons, and the factory inventory decreased by 3.52 tons to 162.15 tons [7]. - **Basis**: As of Friday, the lowest warehouse receipt quotation for rebar in Shanghai was 3360 yuan/ton, with a premium of 157 yuan over the rebar 10 contract, widening by 83 yuan from last week. The rebar basis is near the average, and it is expected that the rebar basis is more likely to continue to widen [7]. - **Comprehensive Judgment**: The short - term rebar futures market is expected to be weak under technical adjustments and off - season pressure [7]. Iron Ore - **Futures**: The iron ore 09 contract continued the adjustment trend under the reduction of long - position main force. As of Friday, it closed at 783.0 yuan/ton, down 19.5 yuan/ton from last week, a weekly decline of 2.43% [7]. - **Spot**: The prices of mainstream imported ore varieties generally decreased slightly, while the prices of domestic iron concentrate began to decline steadily. The overall trading was average [7]. - **Fundamentals** - **Supply**: As of July 28, the total shipping volume of Australian and Brazilian iron ore was 2755.9 tons, an increase of 203.9 tons from the previous week. The shipping volume from Australia was 1859.6 tons, an increase of 230.2 tons, and the volume shipped to China was 1550.4 tons, an increase of 106.8 tons. The shipping volume from Brazil was 896.4 tons, a decrease of 26.2 tons. The 45 - port arrival volume was 2240.5 tons, a decrease of 130.7 tons; the arrival volume at six northern ports was 1157.3 tons, a decrease of 231.9 tons [9]. - **Demand**: The current daily average port clearance volume of 45 ports is 302.71 tons, a decrease of 12.44 tons from the previous week; the weekly average trading volume of port - spot iron ore is 96.64 tons, an increase of 0.6 tons; the daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills is 240.71 tons, a decrease of 1.52 tons from last week and an increase of 4.09 tons compared to last year; the daily consumption of imported ore by 247 steel mills is 299.46 tons, a decrease of 1.65 tons [9]. - **Inventory**: As of August 1, the 45 - port iron ore inventory began to decrease slightly, currently at 13657.90 tons, a decrease of 132.48 tons. The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills is 9012.09 tons, an increase of 126.87 tons [9]. - **Basis**: As of Friday, the Newman powder at Qingdao Port, the optimal delivery product, was 807 yuan/ton, with a premium of 24 yuan over the continuous iron 10 contract, widening by 5 yuan from last week. The iron ore basis is at the average level, and it is expected that the iron ore basis is more likely to continue to widen [9]. - **Comprehensive Judgment**: The short - term iron ore futures market is expected to follow the rebar trend and remain weak [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The short - term price of live pigs has some support, but it is still under pressure later; the corn price is supported in the short - term but has limited upside space with pressure on the upper side of the market and may fluctuate at a low level in the short - term [5][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Live Pigs - Last week, the live pig futures showed a weak trend. The LH2509 contract closed at 14,055 yuan/ton, a 2.63% drop from the previous week's settlement price. The national average market price of outer ternary live pigs was 14.26 yuan/kg, a week - on - week decrease of 0.55 yuan/kg. As of August 1st, the self - breeding and self - raising profit was 43.85 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 18.31 yuan/head; the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 116.78 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 45.39 yuan/head; the pig - grain ratio was 5.93, a week - on - week decrease of 0.09 [5] - The national live pig spot market first declined and then stabilized last week. In the short term, downstream consumption has no obvious positive factors, and the demand boost is limited. At the beginning of the month, the enterprise's slaughter pressure weakens, and the breeding end mainly controls the quantity and stabilizes the price. After continuous market decline, second - fattening inquiries have started in some areas, providing short - term support for live pig prices. However, as breeding enterprises resume slaughter, live pig prices are still expected to be under pressure [5] Corn - Last week, the corn futures fluctuated weakly. The C2509 contract closed at 2,297 yuan/ton, a 0.73% drop from the previous week's settlement price. The national average spot price of corn was 2,402.75 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 5.09 yuan/ton. Port prices in some areas showed a slight decline [6] - From July 24th to July 31st, 2025, 149 major corn deep - processing enterprises consumed 1.1377 million tons of corn, a week - on - week increase of 75,300 tons. The processing volume of corn starch enterprises was 545,100 tons, an increase of 43,600 tons from the previous week; the weekly national corn starch output was 267,800 tons, an increase of 32,600 tons from the previous week; the weekly operating rate was 51.76%, a 6.3% increase from the previous week. The operating rate of the DDGS industry increased, with the weekly output increasing by 8.20% [7] - As of July 30th, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 3.797 million tons, a decrease of 5.19%. As of August 1st, the total corn inventory of the four northern ports was about 2.06 million tons, and the corn inventory in Guangdong ports was 830,000 tons [7][8] - The national corn spot market first rose and then fell last week. The remaining grain inventory decreased significantly year - on - year, providing short - term supply support for corn prices. However, it is rumored that the directional rice auction may resume in August, which will help ease the tight supply of the corn market and limit the upside space of corn prices. The market is under pressure on the upper side and may fluctuate at a low level in the short term [8]

反内卷预期降温，双焦期价大幅下跌 【期现行情】 财达期货｜焦煤焦炭周报 2025-08-04 上周焦煤 2601 合约周五收于 1092.5，周跌幅 17.14%，现货市场主流地区报价 暂稳运行。 研究员 姓名：申伟光 上周焦炭 2509 合约周五收于 1585，周跌幅 10.1%，现货市场主流地区报价提 涨 50-55 元/吨落地。 从 业 资 格 号 ： 【基本面分析】 F03088716 投 资 咨 询 号 ： 焦煤： 供应端：上周全国 523 家炼焦煤矿山核定产能利用率 86.3%，环比下降 0.6%。 全国 110 家洗煤厂开工率 61.51%，环比下降 0.8%；日均产量 52.14 万吨，环比减 少 0.01 万吨。因强降雨天气影响而多被迫停产、减产的煤矿上周逐渐恢复生产， 因主产区受暴雨影响程度不同而复产进度存在显著差异，同时近期严查超产及安环 检查影响煤矿恢复缓慢，煤矿洗煤厂开工率下滑。由于市场情绪较好，独立洗煤厂 市场开工率有所提升。库存方面，由于市场情绪好转之后，出货顺畅，虽然上周市 场情绪有所转弱，但影响较小，库存仍以向下游转移为主。洗煤厂原煤及精煤库存 延续去库。 需求端：上周，焦炭 ...

Report Summary 1. Market Performance - Last week, the gold price soared and then dropped significantly. The New York gold price fell back to $3,338 per ounce, and the Shanghai gold price dropped to 773 yuan per gram [3] 2. Interest Rate Expectations - On July 24, Trump met with Fed Chairman Powell to discuss interest rates. Powell and most Fed policymakers have been cautious about rate cuts due to concerns about the lagged impact of Trump's tariff hikes on inflation [4] - According to the CME "FedWatch" tool, the market expects a 95.9% probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in July and a 58.4% probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in September. Traders expect the Fed to cut rates more aggressively next year, with a projected 76 - basis - point cut [4] 3. Tariff Situation - Trump said he would impose simple tariffs of 15% to 50% on most other countries but would be willing to abandon the tariff clause if major countries open their markets to the US. He also mentioned sending nearly 200 tariff letters and reaching tariff agreements with Japan and the EU (15% tariff on the EU) [7] - Overall, Trump's tariff war has less impact than expected, and the market has adapted. The US stock market has continued to rise, and the risk - aversion sentiment has declined [7] 4. Economic Data - As of the week ending July 19, the number of initial jobless claims in the US decreased by 4,000 to 217,000, falling for the sixth consecutive week, the longest consecutive decline since 2022. This reduces the urgency for the Fed to cut rates in the short term, causing the US dollar index to rebound and putting pressure on the gold price [7] 5. Geopolitical Situation - Sino - US relations have eased, and the impact of the global tariff war has weakened. The new conflict between Thailand and Cambodia has limited impact on the financial market due to their small economic scale and the possibility of peace talks [7] 6. Market Outlook - Risk - assets such as the stock market are favored again, and the risk - aversion sentiment has declined, putting pressure on the gold price. The gold price on the weekly chart has soared and then dropped significantly, lacking upward momentum in the short term and returning to a box - consolidation pattern [7]

财达期货｜螺纹钢、铁矿石 周报 财达期货｜螺纹钢、铁矿石 周报 2025-07-28 反内卷政策持续发酵，螺矿盘面走势开始分化 【螺纹钢】 研究员 Z0017173 长流程钢厂：目前华东地区粗钢测算成本 2806 元，环比增加 77 元，螺纹 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 第 1 页 共 9 页 姓名：薛国鹏 F3073406 期货方面：本周螺纹 10 合约在空头主力减仓驱动下延续反弹走势。截止周 五，螺纹 10 合约收于 3356 元/吨，环比上周上涨 209.0 元，周 涨幅 6.64%。 从 业 资 格 号 ： 现货方面：本周螺纹主流地区价格普遍出现大幅上调，整体成交小幅转好。 截止周五，全国螺纹平均报价上调 2152 元至 3471 元/吨；其中 上海地区螺纹价格上调 180 元至 3430 元/吨；杭州地区螺纹价 格上调 200 元至 3490 元/吨；北京地区螺纹价格上调 170 元至 3360 元/吨；天津地区螺纹价格上调 180 元至 3380 元/吨；广州 地区螺纹价格上调 120 元至 3490 元/吨。 投 资 咨 询 号 ： 基 本 面：供给方面：全国 247 家钢厂高炉开工率 8 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Despite positive domestic macro - policies, market sentiment remains cautious in the short - term due to upcoming Sino - US negotiations. Low domestic inventory limits the decline of copper prices, but the overall situation is one of weak supply and demand expectations. Short - term copper prices are expected to show a volatile trend, pending the progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Supply and Demand - Domestic spot TC stabilizes at a low level of - 43. Japanese smelters are having difficult negotiations with Antofagasta on processing fees and cannot accept the extremely low conditions reached by Chinese smelters and Antofagasta. Domestic enterprise operating rates are declining, and the spot market is sluggish due to high prices. Last week, the copper rod operating rate was 69.4%, a 4.9% week - on - week decrease, and the copper cable enterprise operating rate was 70.83%, a 2.0% week - on - week decrease. Copper price increases suppress purchasing sentiment, and orders decrease in the off - season. Enterprises mainly rely on previous long - term orders to maintain operations, and the operating rate is expected to decline slightly this week [4] 2. Inventory - Domestic inventory is being depleted. The domestic electrolytic copper social inventory is 11.4 tons, a 20.3% week - on - week decrease [4] 3. Macro - environment - On July 25, the National Bureau of Statistics announced that the manufacturing PMI in July rebounded to 49.8%, rising for two consecutive months, and the production index reached 51.7%. The National Development and Reform Commission issued the third batch of 69 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds to local areas last week to support the replacement of old consumer goods with new ones. The US plan to impose tariffs on copper is approaching on August 1, and market trading is cautious. US Treasury Secretary Bessent announced that China and the US will hold a new round of trade negotiations in Stockholm, Sweden, on Monday and Tuesday [4] 4. Market Trends - Last week, the main contract of Shanghai copper first rose and then fell. At the beginning of the week, it continued the upward trend driven by the macro news from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology on the previous Friday, and declined slightly in the second half of the week. The closing price on Friday was 79,250 yuan/ton, about 1% higher than the previous week [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the four stock index futures varieties continued to rise, with CSI 500 and CSI 1000 showing relatively strong performance Most of the basis of the four stock index futures varieties was in the futures discount mode The A - share market remained upward, with the market strength gradually increasing and the trading volume rising The Wande All - A index broke through last year's October high, and the scope of hot industries expanded, with industries entering a virtuous rotation [2] - Looking ahead to next week, the incremental funds for this upward movement initially came from a wide range of net inflows of institutional funds As the market's money - making effect accumulates, the inflow of retail investors is accelerating, and the market heat is rising The "anti - involution" narrative logic is strengthening The policy of "anti - involution" is both a short - term measure to stabilize the price level and revive nominal growth and a long - term strategic choice to build a consumption - driven economy [3][4] 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Contents Market Performance - Last week, the four stock index futures varieties showed a general upward trend, with CSI 500 and CSI 1000 being relatively strong The basis of the futures main contracts was as follows: IH was 1.29, IF was - 11.16, IC was - 83.59, and IM was - 100.81 [2] - The A - share market continued to rise last week, with Friday's adjustment not affecting its overall strength The Wande All - A index broke through last year's October high, and industries entered a virtuous rotation, with low - position chip semiconductors and the computer sector taking over the rise on Friday [2] Market Outlook - Next week, the incremental funds for the upward movement initially came from institutional net inflows, and the inflow of retail investors is accelerating The market heat is rising, and the "anti - involution" narrative logic is strengthening [3] Policy Impact - The Sixth Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission mentioned "anti - involution" again, making the top - down "anti - involution" policy thinking clearer and accelerating the pace of governing the disorderly low - price competition of enterprises in various industries "Anti - involution" is both a short - term measure for economic stability and a long - term strategic choice [4]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the weekly report on live pigs and corn from July 22 - 28, 2025, published by Caida Futures [1] Group 2: Live Pig Market Futures and Spot Market - Last week, the live pig futures rose significantly and then fell back. The LH2509 contract closed at 14,385 yuan/ton, up 1.91% from the previous week's settlement price [5] - As of July 25, the self - breeding and self - raising live pig breeding profit was 62.16 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 28.73 yuan/head; the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 71.39 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 52.73 yuan/head; the pig - grain ratio was 6.02, a week - on - week decrease of 0.15 [5] Price Trend and Policy Impact - The national live pig spot price rose first and then fell last week. At the beginning of the week, affected by the typhoon, the breeding side reduced supply and resisted price cuts. As the weather impact weakened, group enterprises increased their slaughter, and terminal demand was weak, causing the price to decline slightly [5] - On July 23, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a symposium on promoting the high - quality development of the live pig industry, proposing to implement capacity control measures, reduce the number of breeding sows, and control fat pig slaughter weight. This news boosted the live pig futures to break through 15,000, reaching a new high for the year [5] Short - term Outlook - In the short term, farms have completed their slaughter plans well, but demand is weak, which restricts the live pig market. Prices may fluctuate, and market sentiment changes should be monitored [5] Group 3: Corn Market Futures and Spot Market - Last week, the corn futures rose and then fell back. The C2509 contract closed at 2,311 yuan/ton, up 0.26% from the previous week's settlement price [6] - The national average corn spot price was 2,407.84 yuan/ton, up 2.84 yuan/ton week - on - week [6] Port Prices - As of July 25, in Jinzhou Port, the price of corn with 15% moisture and 720 bulk density was 2,290 - 2,310 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 30 - 40 yuan/ton; the flat - hatch price of 15% moisture corn was 2,320 - 2,330 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week [6] - In Bayuquan Port, the price of corn with 15% moisture and 720 bulk density was 2,290 - 2,310 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 40 yuan/ton; the flat - hatch price of 15% moisture corn was 2,320 - 2,330 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week [6] - In Guangdong Shekou Port, the transaction price of 15% moisture bulk corn was 2,410 - 2,430 yuan/ton, and the price of first - grade corn was 2,450 - 2,470 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/ton [6] Industrial Consumption and Inventory - From July 17 - 23, 2025, 149 major corn deep - processing enterprises consumed 1.0624 million tons of corn, a decrease of 38,100 tons from the previous week [7] - The processing volume of 60 corn starch enterprises was 501,500 tons, a decrease of 36,300 tons from the previous week; the weekly corn starch output was 235,200 tons, a decrease of 25,000 tons from the previous week; the weekly operating rate was 45.46% [7] - The operating rate of the DDGS industry was 38.63%, up 0.29% from the previous week; the weekly production of DDGS was 78,620 tons, an increase of 590 tons from the previous week [7] - As of July 23, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 4.005 million tons, a decrease of 6.21% [7] - As of July 25, the total corn inventory in the four northern ports was about 2.18 million tons, and the corn inventory in Guangdong ports was 950,000 tons [7] Market Outlook - The national corn spot market stopped falling and rose slightly last week. After continuous grain sales and a decrease in imported corn auctions, traders were reluctant to sell, and enterprise purchase prices mainly increased [8] - Corn starch enterprises are entering the summer maintenance stage, with a significant decline in the operating rate and a continuous decrease in corn consumption. Feed enterprises are digesting previous inventories, and their demand for corn procurement is relatively weak [8] - Overall, trader inventories have decreased significantly, the overall shipment pace has slowed down, market supply has decreased, and the impact of imported corn auctions on the market has weakened. However, considering the limited restocking demand of downstream enterprises, corn prices are expected to stabilize, and the rebound space of the futures is limited, with short - term low - level fluctuations expected [8]

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - Gold prices are in short - term consolidation, and the upward trend remains unchanged. The short - term is in a sideways accumulation phase, and the medium - term will maintain a volatile upward trend [2][8] - Due to the decrease in inflation expectations, the possibility of a rate cut at the end of this year and comprehensive rate cuts next year are high, and the weakening of the US dollar will support gold prices [4] - The overall economic outlook is neutral to slightly pessimistic, and the uncertainty of the economy and policies will also affect the gold market [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Contents Gold Price Performance - Last week, the New York gold price closed at $3356 per ounce, and the Shanghai gold price closed at around 778 yuan per gram [3] US Economic Data - In June, the US CPI rebounded, with a month - on - month increase of 0.3% and a year - on - year increase of 2.7%, the highest since February. The core CPI increased by 0.2% month - on - month and 2.9% year - on - year. The PPI data was weak, with a year - on - year increase of 2.3% and a month - on - month increase of 0%. The core PPI year - on - year increase was 2.6%. Inflation expectations have decreased [4] Fed's Economic Outlook - The Fed's Beige Book shows that economic activity has slightly expanded, and the overall economic outlook is neutral to slightly pessimistic. Recruitment is cautious, and price pressures are emerging [5][6] Market Events - Trump's statement about firing Powell and then denying it caused market fluctuations. Whether to replace Powell has an impact on the market's expectations of interest rate cuts. Trump's threat to impose a 30% tariff on the EU and Mexico also adds uncertainty [7][8]