财达期货｜焦煤焦炭周报 2025-11-24 煤矿缓慢复产，双焦期价大幅下跌 【期现行情】 上周焦煤 2601 合约周五收于 1103，周跌幅 7.47%，现货市场主流地区报价偏 弱运行。 研究员 上周焦炭 2601 合约周五收于 1614.5，周跌幅 3.29%，现货市场主流地区报价 第四轮提涨 50-55 元/吨落地。 姓名：申伟光 【基本面分析】 焦煤： 投 资 咨 询 号 ： 供应端：上周全国 523 家炼焦煤矿山核定产能利用率 86.9%，环比上升 0.6%； 精煤日均产量 75.8 万吨，环比增加 0.1 万吨。全国 314 家独立洗煤厂产能利用率 37.6%，环比上升 0.2%；精煤日均产量 27.6 万吨，环比增加 0.2 万吨。上周，煤矿 主产地安全监管及环保督察等方面依然较严格，国内前期停限产的煤矿开始逐渐复 产，产量逐渐回升，部分地区原煤供应小幅增加。库存方面，近期焦煤价格偏弱， 市场情绪降温影响，下游拉运积极性下降，炼焦煤矿山和独立洗煤厂精煤库存开始 累库，特别是炼焦煤矿山精煤库存大幅累库。 需求端：钢厂高炉开工率仍维持相对高位，焦钢企业仍有补库需求，对炼焦煤 刚性需求仍存。焦炭第四轮 ...

财达期货｜股指期货周报 财达期货｜股指期货周报 2025-11-24 研究员 姓名：李津文 从业资格号： F0244287 Z0012495 大幅下挫，弱势难改 行情回顾: 上周四个股指期货品种走势以大幅下跌为主，其中中证 1000 和中证 500 的调整幅度相对较大。四个股指期货品种基差随着现货 市场大跌而贴水深度改善，但全部主力合约合约仍保持期货贴水模 式。期指主力合约期货-现货基差，IH 收于-9.45，IF 收于-25.21， IC 收于-47.41，IM 收于-49.5。 投资咨询号： 上周 A 股市场弱势开盘，大幅下跌结尾。之前大盘指数的技术 指标已出现走弱的信号，行业上通信、算力、半导体等权重科技板 块走弱，具有防守性质的银行板块大幅上涨，这是市场走弱的技术 层面原因。此外，全球主要市场进入高波动阶段，对 A 股也造成了 较大影响。周四美股暴跌，纳斯达克指数日内跌幅接近 5%，其背 后是市场对美国陷入滞胀的担忧有所增加，以及英伟达公布亮眼财 报后公司股价不涨反跌，市场对其美股大型科技股高估值的担忧仍 未消散。放量下跌之后，市场企稳需有一个过程。但需要看到，短 线的快速下跌也有利于消化对科技估值较 ...

财达期货｜铜周报 2025-11-24 财达期货｜铜周报 铜价高位震荡为主 F3084967 Z0018883 行情回顾：上周沪铜主力合约周初延续前一周五的冲高回落趋势，后续 维持震荡走势，周五收于 85660 元/吨，较前一周-1.4%。 研究员 姓名：张珩 供需方面，进口铜精矿加工费无太多变化，11 月 18 日，自由港发布公 告，宣布全球印尼 Grasberg 地下矿将自 2026 年第二季度起逐步大规模重启 并提产，2026 年 Grasberg 矿区的预估产量调整为与 2025 年持平，约为 10 亿磅（约 45.4 万吨）铜，这一数字较 9 月修订后的事故前预估水平下降约 35%，所以中期来看对供应端还是有一定影响。上周 SMM 铜线缆开工率环 比升 1.32 个百分点，铜价回调至 86000 元/吨下，订单回升但个别企业观望， 汽车线束需求向好，11 月最后一周，企业将提产冲刺，SMM 预期开工率小 幅回升。漆包线行业机台开机率环比回升 0.73 个百分点至 77.93%。周中铜 价重心小幅回落，有效刺激下游下单需求，行业整体活跃度呈现回暖态势， 但仍未达到旺季常规水平。三大交易所库存环比增加 ...

Z0015545 财达期货｜生猪玉米周报 财达期货｜生猪、玉米周报 2025-11-24 生猪价格重心下行，玉米盘面突破 2200 研究员 姓名：田金莲 F3046737 生猪 上周生猪期货延续下行趋势，LH2601 合约报收 11350 元/吨， 较前周结算价下跌 3.73%。 从业资格号： 投资咨询号： 现货方面，全国外三元生猪市场价为 11.74 元/公斤，环比下 跌 0.22 元/公斤。利润方面，截至 11 月 21 日，自繁自养生猪养殖 利润为-135.9 元/头，环比下降 21.09 元/头；外购仔猪养殖利润 为-234.63 元/头，环比下降 28.99 元/头；猪粮比价为 5.23，周环 比下降 0.15。 上周全国生猪现货价格先跌后稳，市场供应相对宽松，散户扛 价惜售情绪较弱，周初价格再度下跌；随着气温下降，局部需求有 所回暖，养殖场成交好转，生猪价格止跌趋稳。目前来看，养殖端 低价抵触情绪升温，但整体出栏压力仍存，同时终端需求暂未有较 大提升，屠宰部分虽有增加，但供应增量大于需求增量，需求端支 撑有限，生猪供应过剩的局面仍在，预计短期生猪价格反弹发力， 持续关注养殖场出栏节奏及出栏情绪变化 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The precious metals market experienced significant fluctuations last week, with gold and silver prices soaring mid - week and silver hitting a record high, but then sharply correcting on Thursday and Friday. The international gold price returned to $4000 per ounce, and the silver price returned to around $50 per ounce. The long - term upward trend remains unchanged despite high volatility [3]. - Trade war easing has a bearish impact on gold prices, while the escalation of geopolitical tensions is favorable for gold [3][4]. - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December has decreased, but it is likely to accelerate rate cuts next year. The short - term decline in gold and silver prices is directly related to the reduced probability of a December rate cut [9][10]. 3) Summary by Related Content Market Performance - Last week, the gold and silver markets were highly volatile. Gold and silver prices rose sharply mid - week, and silver set a new record high. However, they declined significantly on Thursday and Friday. The international gold price reached $4000 per ounce, and the silver price was around $50 per ounce [3]. Trade Policy - On November 14, the US White House announced that President Trump signed an executive order to adjust the scope of "reciprocal tariffs", excluding some agricultural products from the additional tariffs. The updated tariff exemption list will take effect on November 13, 2025, at 0:01 EST [3]. - This is a sign of trade war easing, which has a bearish impact on gold prices [4]. Geopolitical Situation - Geopolitical tensions have escalated. In the Russia - Ukraine situation, a German military official said Germany is ready to fight Moscow, and Ukraine stated it will not negotiate with Russia for the time being, intensifying regional tensions [5][6]. - On November 14, Russian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Zakharova said Russia has no plan to attack NATO countries but will respond with all means if attacked [8]. Fed's Interest Rate Policy - The US government reopened, and some economic data affected by the shutdown will be released later. The uncertainty of data makes it more likely for the Fed to pause rate cuts before getting reliable new data [9]. - Some Fed officials, represented by Logan, find it difficult to support another rate cut in December, indicating a growing internal divide. The market's expectation of a December rate cut dropped from 62% to 51% last Thursday and further to 46% by Friday [9]. - Although the probability of a December rate cut has decreased, it is still possible. If the US stock market continues to fall, it may force the Fed to cut rates. A new Fed chair, likely a dovish figure approved by Trump, is expected to accelerate rate cuts next year [9][10].

Report Title - The Weekly Report on Stock Index Futures by Caida Futures [1][2] Report Date - November 17, 2025 [2] Researcher - Name: Li Jinwen; Qualification Number: F0244287; Investment Consulting Number: Z0012495 [3] Report Core View - The stock index futures showed a pattern of rising and then falling last week and still need consolidation. The market may continue to fluctuate in the short - term to digest pressure and accumulate momentum [3][4][6] Market Review Stock Index Futures - Last week, the four stock index futures showed a pattern of rising and then falling, with relatively large adjustments in CSI 300 and CSI 500. The basis of all four futures varieties changed little, and all the main contracts remained in the futures discount mode. The futures - spot basis of the main contracts were: IH at - 8.03, IF at - 27.74, IC at - 98.06, and IM at - 130.76 [4] A - share Market - The A - share market last week featured "index range - bound fluctuations, accelerated structural rotation, and cautious capital preference". The stable economic operation provided bottom support, but the fluctuations of some data restricted the upward space of the index. By the end of Friday, the main stock indices generally declined slightly, and trading volume continued to shrink slightly. There was still a differentiation in the sector structure, and capital quickly switched between policy - beneficiary sectors and low - valuation sectors. After the impact of the third - quarter reports faded, the market pricing logic gradually shifted to next year's performance expectations and policy - beneficiary directions. Overall, capital risk preference converged, and more attention was paid to the safety margin and sustainability of prosperity in structural selection [4] Comprehensive Analysis Macroeconomic Situation - The release of October's macro - economic data was the main focus of the market. On November 14, it was announced that the national economy continued to develop steadily: industrial production and the service industry remained stable; market sales continued to expand; and the employment situation was generally stable. In October, the year - on - year CPI changed from a 0.3% decline last month to a 0.2% increase, and the year - on - year decline of PPI narrowed for the third consecutive month to 2.1%, indicating the initial signs of domestic demand recovery. Meanwhile, the interpretation of the "15th Five - Year Plan" continued, and the market continuously discussed the future industrial policies and measures to expand domestic demand [5][6] Market Outlook - The October economic data further confirmed the resilience of China's economic recovery, especially the marginal improvement in prices helped stabilize market expectations. However, the full recovery of effective demand still requires more time and policy support. In this context, the market may continue to fluctuate in the short - term to digest pressure and accumulate momentum [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term iron water demand stops falling and rebounds, driving the stabilization and rebound of rebar and iron ore. For rebar, the short - term supply is affected by production restrictions and maintenance, and the demand faces seasonal weakening pressure. It is expected to maintain high - level consolidation with the support of coal and coke costs and start a technical rebound. For iron ore, the short - term import shipment volume decreases slightly, the demand side shows a slight increase in daily iron water volume, and it is expected to maintain a technical rebound [3][5][7][8][10][11] Summary by Related Catalogs Rebar Futures - This week, the rebar 01 contract maintained a narrow - range consolidation trend driven by the reduction of short - selling main positions. As of Friday, it closed at 3053 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan from last week, with a weekly increase of 0.63% [5] Spot - This week, the prices of mainstream rebar regions began to rise slightly, and the overall trading volume was average. As of Friday, the national average rebar quotation increased by 17 yuan to 3242 yuan/ton. Different regions had different price adjustments [5] Fundamental - **Supply**: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 domestic steel mills was 82.81%, a decrease of 0.32% month - on - month and an increase of 0.73% year - on - year; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 88.8%, an increase of 0.99% month - on - month and an increase of 0.22% year - on - year. The average operating rate of 90 electric furnace steel mills was 68.13%, an increase of 1.1% month - on - month and a decrease of 3.3% year - on - year; the average electric furnace capacity utilization rate was 53.18%, an increase of 2.31% month - on - month and a decrease of 0.85% year - on - year. The weekly rebar output decreased by 8.54 tons to 200.0 tons, still at a low level year - on - year [5] - **Short - process steel mills**: The estimated cost of electric furnaces in East China was 3176 yuan, an increase of 6 yuan month - on - month. The profit of rebar electric furnaces was a loss of 276 yuan, and the loss margin shrank by 4 yuan compared with last week. The operating rate and capacity utilization rate of electric furnaces began to rise slightly this week [5] - **Long - process steel mills**: The estimated cost of crude steel in East China was 3002 yuan, an increase of 52 yuan month - on - month. The profit of rebar blast furnaces was a loss of 112 yuan, an increase of 52 yuan compared with last week. The operating rate of domestic blast furnaces began to decline slightly, while the capacity utilization rate began to rise slightly. The loss margin of long - process steel mills continued to expand [8] - **Demand**: This week, the building material trading volume and the apparent consumption of rebar continued to decline slightly. The 5 - day average building material trading volume decreased by 0.03 tons to 9.67 tons month - on - month, and the apparent consumption of rebar decreased by 2.15 tons to 216.37 tons month - on - month. In absolute terms, the apparent consumption of rebar remained at a low level in the same period [8] - **Inventory**: This week, the inventory of five major steel products and rebar continued to decline slightly. As of Friday, the total rebar inventory decreased by 16.37 tons to 576.17 tons. In absolute terms, the current rebar inventory remained at a low level in the same period [8] - **Basis**: As of Friday, the lowest warehouse receipt quotation for rebar in Shanghai was 3190 yuan/ton, with a premium of 137 yuan over the rebar 01 contract, a contraction of 19 yuan compared with last week. The current rebar basis is above the average, and it is expected that the probability of rebar basis contraction is relatively large in the later period [8] Comprehensive Judgment - In the short term, the rebar output continues to decline due to production restrictions and maintenance on the supply side. The demand side faces seasonal weakening pressure, and the apparent consumption of rebar decreases slightly. It is expected that the short - term rebar futures will maintain high - level consolidation with the support of coal and coke costs and start a technical rebound [8] Iron Ore Futures - This week, the iron ore 01 contract maintained a slight rebound driven by the reduction of short - selling main positions. As of Friday, it closed at 772.5 yuan/ton, up 12.0 yuan/ton from last week, with a gain of 1.58% [8] Spot - This week, the prices of mainstream imported ore varieties showed mixed trends, and the prices of domestic iron ore concentrates continued to decline steadily. The overall trading volume improved. As of Friday, the prices of different iron ore varieties in different ports had different adjustments [8] Fundamental - **Supply**: As of the 10th, the total shipment volume of Australian and Brazilian iron ore was 2548.6 tons, a decrease of 210.6 tons month - on - month. The shipment volume from Australia was 1810.8 tons, a decrease of 84.3 tons month - on - month, and the volume shipped to China was 1534.0 tons, a decrease of 71.8 tons month - on - month. The shipment volume from Brazil was 737.8 tons, a decrease of 126.3 tons month - on - month. The arrival volume of 45 ports was 2741.2 tons, a decrease of 477.2 tons month - on - month; the arrival volume of six northern ports was 1525.8 tons, a decrease of 60.1 tons month - on - month [10] - **Demand**: The current daily average port clearance volume of 45 ports is 326.95 tons, an increase of 6.02 tons month - on - month. The weekly average trading volume of iron ore port spot is 106.9 tons, a decrease of 18.0 tons month - on - month. The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills is 236.88 tons, an increase of 2.66 tons compared with last week and an increase of 0.94 tons compared with last year. The daily consumption of imported ore by 247 steel mills is 292.63 tons, an increase of 3.93 tons month - on - month [10] - **Inventory**: As of the 14th, the iron ore inventory of 45 ports continued to increase slightly, currently at 15129.71 tons, an increase of 230.88 tons month - on - month. The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills is 9076.01 tons, an increase of 66.07 tons month - on - month [10] - **Basis**: As of Friday, the best - delivery product, the iron ore powder at Rizhao Port, was quoted at 821 yuan/ton, with a premium of 49 yuan over the iron ore 01 contract, a contraction of 7 yuan compared with last week. It is expected that the probability of the iron ore basis starting to contract is relatively large [10] Comprehensive Judgment - In the short term, the import shipment volume of iron ore continues to decline slightly, and it is expected that the arrival volume will decrease slightly next week, and the port inventory pressure will be relieved. The daily molten iron volume on the demand side begins to increase slightly, and the steel mills' daily consumption rebounds synchronously. It is expected that the short - term iron ore futures will start a technical rebound [10][11]

财达期货｜铜周报 2025-11-17 财达期货｜铜周报 铜价区间震荡为主 F3084967 Z0018883 行情回顾：上周沪铜主力合约呈现震荡偏强格局，受矿端供应扰动及宏 观回暖预期支撑，但上方近压力显著，铜价冲高回落，周五受外盘金属下跌 带动沪铜小幅走弱，收于 86900 元/吨，较前一周+1.1%。 研究员 姓名：张珩 从 业 资 格 号 ： 供需方面，进口铜精矿加工费维持负值无太多变化，矿端短期仍供应紧 张，但印尼能源与矿产资源部表示，如果对前期因事故暂停生产的全球第二 大铜矿 Grasberg 矿，若评估完成并认为安全，将允许自由港恢复运营，后续 关注其恢复运营时间。国内方面，11 月 SMM 预计检修影响产量 4.8 万吨， 因为铜价持续走高，部分冶炼厂再度推迟检修至 12 月，SMM 预计 11 月电 解铜产量小幅度下降。上周 SMM 国内主要精铜杆企业开工率环比上升 4.91 百分点至 66.88%，同比下降 15.92 个百分点，主因再上一周铜价回调后企业 订单集中释放，成品库存去库显著，支撑开工率回升。但整体下游还是以刚 需采购为主，对价格敏感度比较高。预计本周开工率维持环比微增 1.6 ...

财达期货｜焦煤焦炭周报 2025-11-17 焦炭第四轮提涨落地困难，双焦期价大幅下跌 【期现行情】 上周焦煤 2601 合约周五收于 1192，周跌幅 6.14%，现货市场主流地区报价涨 跌互现。 研究员 上周焦炭 2601 合约周五收于 1669.5，周跌幅 4.95%，现货市场主流地区报价 暂稳运行。 姓名：申伟光 从 业 资 格 号 ： 【基本面分析】 F03088716 焦煤： 投 资 咨 询 号 ： Z0019628 供应端：上周全国 523 家炼焦煤矿山核定产能利用率 86.3%，环比上升 2.5%； 精煤日均产量 75.7 万吨，环比增加 1.9 万吨。全国 314 家独立洗煤厂产能利用率 37.4%，环比下降 0.2%；精煤日均产量 27.4 万吨，环比减少 0.1 万吨。上周，煤矿 主产地安全监管及环保督察等方面依然较严格，煤矿查超产情形未有放松，煤矿有 所复产，但目前产量仍在低位，煤矿产能释放困难，供应仍趋紧张。库存方面，因 洗煤厂生产较积极有所下降，炼焦煤矿山原煤库存上升幅度较大，精煤库存小幅下 降。 需求端：钢厂高炉开工率仍维持相对高位，焦钢企业仍有补库需求，对炼焦煤 刚性需求不减。 ...

财达期货｜生猪玉米周报 财达期货｜生猪、玉米周报 2025-11-17 生猪价格上涨乏力，玉米关注上方 2200 研究员 姓名：田金莲 F3046737 Z0015545 生猪 上周生猪期货震荡偏弱，LH2601 合约报收 11775 元/吨，较前 周结算价下跌 1.01%。 从业资格号： 投资咨询号： 现货方面，全国外三元生猪市场价为 11.96 元/公斤，环比下 跌 0.02 元/公斤。利润方面，截至 11 月 14 日，自繁自养生猪养殖 利润为-114.81 元/头，环比下降 25.6 元/头；外购仔猪养殖利润 为-205.64 元/头，环比下降 30.1 元/头；猪粮比价为 5.38，周环 比下降 0.15。 上周全国生猪现货价格缓慢下跌，周初部分企业出栏有限，局 部成交略有溢价；但随着养殖场出栏积极性提高，散户挺价情绪松 动，叠加需求端整体欠佳，生猪价格承压下跌。目前来看，随着价 格下调后，养殖端低价认卖情绪降低，但考虑到需求端支撑有限， 难以对猪价形成强力提振，叠加前期二育补栏猪源或陆续出栏，阶 段性供强需弱格局难以扭转，生猪价格上涨动力不足，预计短期低 位震荡为主，后续继续重点关注养殖端出栏节奏 ...