Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "Caida Futures | Coking Coal and Coke Weekly Report 2025 - 10 - 20" [1] - Core View: With the arrival of cooling and snowfall, the prices of coking coal and coke futures fluctuated strongly. Last week, the supply and demand of coking coal both increased, while the supply and demand of coke both decreased. The coking coal 2601 contract and the coke 2601 contract both showed a fluctuating and strengthening trend in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the pressure of the 20 - day moving average [4][5][8] Group 2: Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Coking Coal: Last week, the coking coal 2601 contract closed at 1179 on Friday, with a weekly increase of 1.55%. The mainstream spot market prices in major regions showed a strong trend [4] - Coke: Last week, the coke 2601 contract closed at 1676 on Friday, with a weekly increase of 0.57%. The mainstream spot market prices in major regions remained stable for the time being [4] Group 3: Fundamental Analysis - Coking Coal Supply - The utilization rate of the approved production capacity of 523 coking coal mines nationwide was 87.3%, a month - on - month increase of 5.4%. The utilization rate of the production capacity of 314 independent coal washing plants was 35.8%, a month - on - month increase of 0.5%. The daily output of clean coal was 261,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4,000 tons. The overall supply of coking coal increased slightly [4] - The production enthusiasm of coking coal mines and coal washing plants was high, and the downstream transportation was active. The clean coal inventory increased, but the increase was not large [4] Demand - The blast furnace operating rate of downstream steel mills remained at a high level, and the high rigid demand for coke supported the demand for coking coal [5] - Affected by factors such as the arrival of snowfall and the expectation of winter storage, the price of coking coal continued to rise. However, due to the poor profitability of coking and steel enterprises, they were resistant to high - priced coal and mainly purchased on demand [5] - The overall trend of online coking coal auctions was still upward [5] Summary - Last week, the supply and demand of coking coal both increased. The coking coal 2601 contract fluctuated strongly last week, and short - term attention should be paid to the pressure of the 20 - day moving average [5] Group 4: Fundamental Analysis - Coke Supply - The utilization rate of the production capacity of all - sample independent coking enterprises nationwide was 74.24%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.94%. The daily output was 652,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 83,000 tons [7] - The profit per ton of coke for 30 sample coking enterprises was - 13 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 22 yuan/ton. The increase in coking coal prices compressed the profits of coking enterprises, and the supply of coke decreased slightly [7] - The spot price of coke at ports remained stable, the market trading atmosphere was average, the enthusiasm of traders for shipping to ports was average, and the inventory fluctuated little [7] Demand - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills remained at a relatively high level, and the rigid demand for coke replenishment was good. However, the profitability of steel mills continued to decline, and the inventory of steel products accumulated, which inhibited the replenishment demand for coke [7] Summary - Last week, the supply and demand of coke both decreased. The coke 2601 contract fluctuated strongly last week, and short - term attention should be paid to the pressure of the 20 - day moving average [8] Group 5: Arbitrage - Last week, the coking coal - to - coke ratio dropped significantly, with an average value of 1.43. It is currently at a relatively high level in the same period in the past five years. Attention should be paid to the range of 1.35 - 1.55 [8] Group 6: Inventory Data Coking Coal Inventory - Port inventory was 2.7271 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 222,800 tons [9] - All - sample independent coking plant inventory was 9.9737 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 383,100 tons [9] - 247 sample steel mill inventory was 7.8832 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 71,900 tons [9] - Total inventory was 20.584 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 232,200 tons [9] Coke Inventory - Port inventory was 1.9515 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 6,000 tons [9] - All - sample independent coking plant inventory was 572,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 65,500 tons [9] - 247 sample steel mill inventory was 6.3944 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 113,800 tons [9] - Total inventory was 8.9188 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 178,700 tons [9]

财达期货｜股指期货周报 财达期货｜股指期货周报 2025-10-20 研究员 姓名：李津文 从业资格号： F0244287 Z0012495 高位调整，量能缩减 行情回顾: 上周四个股指期货品种走势以向下调整为主基调，其中中证 500 和中证 1000 调整幅度相对较大。四个股指期货品种基差走势 有所分化，全部主力合约合约仍保持期货贴水模式。期指主力合约 期货-现货基差，IH 收于-4.77，IF 收于-29.03，IC 收于-152.87， IM 收于-164.68。 投资咨询号： 上周 A 股市场整体呈现高位调整走势，之前强势的指数有较大 幅度调整。当前沪指月线运行至压力位置面临方向的选择，周线冲 高放量是调整的信号，如果不能维持强势市场，调整的概率在逐步 增大，需要高度重视。截至 10 月 17 日，板块已经出现了轮动，航 空、煤炭和贵金属等板块在本周表现强势的特征，周内有所拉升。 另外，市场在这个位置横向运动了 8 周，没有特殊事件的影响和资 金的强势拉升，这个位置短期不具备突破的能力，需要进一步观察 后期市场的表现。 综合分析： 宏观方面，9 月出口再次超出市场预期，PPI 延续上行，但是 政府债拖 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The supply - demand margins of both rebar and iron ore are gradually weakening, putting significant pressure on the futures market. For rebar, the demand has declined, and the inventory has increased, while for iron ore, the short - term supply and demand situation has also shown signs of weakening [3][5][8][9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Rebar - **Futures**: The rebar 01 contract maintained a narrow - range consolidation driven by the reduction of long - position main players. As of Friday, it closed at 3103 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan or 0.35% from last week [5]. - **Spot**: The mainstream rebar prices in most regions decreased slightly, and the overall trading weakened. The national average rebar price dropped 25 yuan to 3263 yuan/ton [5]. - **Fundamentals - Supply**: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 domestic steel mills was 84.27%, down 0.02% week - on - week; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.55%, down 0.10% week - on - week. The average operating rate of 90 electric - arc furnace steel mills was 67.06%, up 1.19% week - on - week. The rebar weekly output decreased by 3.62 tons to 203.4 tons, still at a low level year - on - year [5]. - **Fundamentals - Demand**: The 5 - day average building materials trading volume decreased by 0.16 tons to 10.49 tons week - on - week, and the rebar apparent consumption decreased by 95.06 tons to 146.01 tons, remaining at a low level in the same period [6]. - **Fundamentals - Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products and rebar increased significantly. As of Friday, the total rebar inventory increased by 57.39 tons to 659.64 tons, still at a low level in the same period [8]. - **Fundamentals - Basis**: As of Friday, the lowest warehouse - receipt price of rebar in Shanghai was 3250 yuan/ton, with a premium of 147 yuan over the rebar 01 contract, 1 yuan wider than last week. The rebar basis is expected to shrink in the future [8]. - **Comprehensive Judgment**: During the National Day, the decline in rebar apparent consumption and the increase in inventory were more significant than in previous years, and the supply - demand margin of rebar has weakened [8]. Iron Ore - **Futures**: The iron ore 01 contract maintained a relatively strong consolidation driven by the increase of long - position main players. As of Friday, it closed at 795.0 yuan/ton, up 5.0 yuan/ton or 0.63% from last week [8]. - **Spot**: The prices of mainstream imported ore varieties increased slightly, and the price of domestic iron concentrate remained stable. The overall trading was average [8]. - **Fundamentals - Supply**: As of the 6th, the total shipment of Australian and Brazilian iron ore was 2825.9 tons, down 38.1 tons week - on - week. The 45 - port arrival volume was 2608.7 tons, up 248.2 tons week - on - week [8][9]. - **Fundamentals - Demand**: The daily average port clearance volume of 45 ports was 327.0 tons, down 9.4 tons week - on - week. The daily consumption of imported ore by 247 steel mills was 299.14 tons, up 0.33 tons week - on - week [9]. - **Fundamentals - Inventory**: As of the 9th, the 45 - port iron ore inventory continued to increase slightly to 14024.50 tons, while the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 990.6 tons to 9046.19 tons [9]. - **Fundamentals - Basis**: As of Friday, the optimal delivery product, Newman powder at Qingdao Port, was 830 yuan/ton, with a premium of 35 yuan over the iron ore 01 contract, 3 yuan narrower than last week. The iron ore basis is expected to shrink in the future [9]. - **Comprehensive Judgment**: The short - term shipment of imported ore continues to decline slightly, and the arrival volume is expected to increase slightly next week. The supply - demand margin of iron ore has weakened, putting pressure on the market [9].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market is facing risks and adjustments are inevitable. The post - holiday market liquidity has quickly recovered, and margin funds have replenished. The release of the "15th Five - Year Plan" in the second half of October may lead to the growth track regaining the upper hand [2][4] Group 3: Summary of Each Section Market Review - Last week, the four stock index futures varieties showed an upward - trending oscillation. The basis of most contracts remained in the futures discount mode. The basis of the main contracts were: IH at 0.95, IF at - 24.63, IC at - 132.22, and IM at - 193.42 [2] - The A - share market showed an oscillatory consolidation trend last week. In September, the three major A - share indices all closed up, showing a pattern of Shenzhen being stronger than Shanghai. The Shanghai Composite Index rose slightly by 0.64%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 6.54%, the ChiNext Index soared by 12.04%, and the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index soared by 11.48%. Among the 31 Shenwan primary industries, 13 rose, accounting for 42%. Power equipment led the gains with a cumulative increase of over 21%, followed by non - ferrous metals and electronics with cumulative increases of over 10%. Defense industry, banking, non - banking finance, and beauty care had the largest declines, all falling by over 5% [2] Comprehensive Analysis - In September 2025, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.8%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating continuous improvement in manufacturing prosperity [4] - Overseas, the reciprocal tariffs initiated by US President Trump since April have had a negative impact on the global supply chain, and trade disputes will continue in October [4] - After the holiday, market liquidity quickly recovered, and margin funds replenished. The release of the "15th Five - Year Plan" in the second half of October may trigger market speculation around the plan, and the growth track may regain the upper hand [4]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: "Caida Futures | Weekly Report on Live Pigs and Corn" [1][2] - Report Date: October 13, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Tian Jinlian [3] Group 2: Live Pig Market Market Performance - Futures: The LH2601 contract of live pig futures closed at 12,140 yuan/ton, down 4.78% from the previous week's settlement price [4] - Spot: The national average price of external ternary live pigs was 11.48 yuan/kg, down 1.03 yuan/kg week-on-week [4] - Profit: As of October 10, the breeding profit of self - breeding and self - raising live pigs was - 152.15 yuan/head, down 78.04 yuan/head week - on - week; the breeding profit of purchasing piglets was - 301.04 yuan/head, down 64.47 yuan/head week - on - week; the pig - grain ratio was 5.26, down 0.18 week - on - week [4] Market Analysis - Supply: Group farms continued to increase supply, and although some retail farmers had the psychology of delaying sales, the overall market supply did not decrease [4] - Demand: After the holiday, demand declined, and market transactions were weak [4] - Outlook: In the short term, the supply - demand imbalance is difficult to reverse, and the live pig market is expected to remain weak. Attention should be paid to the slaughter rhythm of farmers and the performance of secondary fattening [4] Group 3: Corn Market Market Performance - Futures: The C2511 contract of corn futures closed at 2,125 yuan/ton, down 1.02% from the previous week's settlement price; the C2601 contract closed at 2,125 yuan/ton, down 0.14% [5] - Spot: The national average price of corn was 2,308.43 yuan/ton, down 60.2 yuan/ton week - on - week [5] - Port: Prices at major ports such as Jinzhou Port, Bayuquan Port, and Guangdong Shekou Port all declined [5] Industrial Consumption - Deep - processing: From October 2 to October 8, 149 major corn deep - processing enterprises consumed 1.1927 million tons of corn, an increase of 31,700 tons week - on - week [6] - Starch: The processing volume of corn starch enterprises was 544,500 tons, an increase of 17,800 tons; the weekly output was 268,000 tons, an increase of 12,200 tons; the weekly operating rate was 51.81%, up from the previous week [6] - Alcohol: The operating rate of the DDGS industry was 54.96%, up 3.49 percentage points; the weekly production was 111,840 tons, an increase of 7,100 tons, or 6.78% [6] Inventory - Processing Enterprises: As of October 8, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 2.334 million tons, an increase of 14.64% [6] - Ports: As of October 10, the total corn inventory of four northern ports was about 700,000 tons, and the corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 320,000 tons [6] Market Analysis - Supply: New corn is gradually being listed, and the arrival volume of deep - processing enterprises has increased [7] - Demand: The operating rate of the industry is gradually increasing, and there is still an expectation of further improvement [7] - Outlook: In the short term, corn prices are still under pressure, and attention should be paid to the support level of 2,100 yuan/ton on the futures market [7]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - In the short - term, copper prices are mainly oscillating weakly due to the enhanced market expectation of an economic downturn caused by Sino - US trade conflicts, although the fundamentals still support copper prices in the medium - term as domestic demand expectations during the "Golden September and Silver October" period are rising while domestic production is expected to decline slightly [6]. 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Market Review - During the National Day holiday, LME copper rose about 5% compared to before the holiday, driven by macro factors such as a 32,000 - person drop in ADP employment data, which strengthened the market's expectation of two Fed rate cuts within the year, and supply - side factors like the shutdown of the Grasberg copper mine and the fermentation of copper mine disruptions. The Shanghai copper main contract rose 4% on the first trading day after the holiday but weakened slightly on the 10th, closing at 85,910 yuan/ton. However, on the Friday night session, copper prices dropped significantly due to Trump's mention of imposing a 100% tariff on China, and are currently at the level of 83,000 yuan/ton [4]. 3.2 Supply and Demand - Supply: The Grasberg mine's output in Q4 2025 is nearly zero, about 200,000 tons less than the original guidance, and its 2026 output may drop about 35% from the original plan. Codelco in Chile had a significant year - on - year decline in August output, BHP's copper mine production disruptions increased, and Teck Resources lowered the production target of its large - scale mines. China's refined copper production in September was 1.121 million tons, a 4.31% month - on - month decrease, and is expected to decline 3.43% month - on - month in October. The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association has proposed to strictly control the expansion of copper smelting capacity, and there may be a global copper mine supply gap in Q4 [4]. - Demand: After the holiday, the State Grid released some orders, and the resumption of work after the holiday is expected to further improve the downstream operating level, but high copper prices have a certain impact on market activity [4]. - Inventory: Global inventories have started to rise slightly. SMM expects an increase in imported and domestic copper supplies, and high copper prices will suppress downstream purchasing sentiment, so inventories are expected to increase this week [4]. 3.3 Macroeconomic Factors - On October 10th, the US announced a 100% tariff on China in response to China's export controls on rare earths and other related items and imposed export controls on all key software, which intensified market concerns about the global economic outlook and led to an increase in risk - aversion sentiment [5].

走势惊心动魄 金价牛市未结束 上周因国庆长期因素，只有两个交易日，但走势惊心动魄。长 假期间，外盘金价暴涨，黄金价格突破每盎司 4000 美元，白银逼 近每盎司 50 美元关口。市场上涨的助推力量仍是美联储降息预期， 加上美国因临时拨款方案未获国会通过，导致政府再次停摆，引发 市场对美国内政与政策不确定性的担忧，继而引发避险情绪升温， 进一步刺激了金银价格上涨。 姓名：李津文 从业资格号： 投资咨询号： 金银价格在黄金周期间一路狂欢，国内期市开盘金银价格出现 大幅补涨，但转天市场突然变脸，导火索是巴以冲突出现重大变化， 达成停火协议。尽管巴以冲突从来不是金价上涨的重要推手，但巴 以停火短时间内会让市场避险情绪有所消退。市场还会联想到，假 如俄乌冲突结束，可能会对金价带来更大的冲击，尽管短期内俄乌 冲突仍无结束的迹象。 财达期货｜贵金属周报 2025-10-13 研究员 F0244287 Z0012495 金价过了每盎司 4000 美元大关，白银过了每盎司 50 美元大关 都遇阻，是否已见大顶？无论从技术面还是从基本面都暂无法得出 金价已见历史大顶的结论，上涨中继的可能性更大。因为从黄金的 基本面来看，巴以冲突 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The external environment remains complex. The US tariff pressure on China persists, and the "rush to export" trend is unsustainable. However, the weakening of the US dollar's credit foundation eases the passive depreciation pressure on the RMB. In China, the conversion of expectations into reality is evident, but the continuous effect of the "anti - involution" policy on deflation improvement still depends on demand - side cooperation. Corporate profit repair is not yet stable, and the transmission of policies and monetary effects requires time. The current valuation repair process is ahead of the profit recovery slope, and the profit recovery situation is the key to whether the overall market center can rise. Attention should be paid to the recovery of the overall market profitability [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - In September, the domestic A - share market indices continued to rise, with multiple indices hitting new highs this year. Small - cap growth stocks outperformed, followed by large - cap growth stocks, while large - cap value stocks had continuous corrections. The performance of various industries was significantly differentiated, with non - ferrous metals related to precious metals leading the gains, and coal, food and beverage, and oil and petrochemicals leading the losses. In terms of valuation, there was obvious internal differentiation among stock indices [3] - The basis of the four major stock index futures main contracts mostly remained in a discount state. The trading of the four major stock index futures was highly active, with a convergence at the end of the quarter. IM was the most active, followed by IF and IC with similar activity levels. The overall positions of the four major stock index futures varieties increased, with IM having the largest position scale, followed by IF [3] 3.2 Macroeconomic Situation - Domestically, in the first half of 2025, the GDP actually grew by 5.3%. The economic growth rate slowed down slightly in the second quarter, with a single - quarter growth of 5.2%. In 2024, the cumulative year - on - year growth rates of fixed - asset investment and real estate development investment were 3.2% and - 10.6% respectively. In the fourth quarter of 2024, the contributions of consumption, investment, and net exports to GDP all increased. After negotiations, the tariff rate was stable at 15%, and external demand maintained resilience [4] - Overseas, at the end of September, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25bp as expected, and the dot - plot showed a total reduction of about 75bp this year. Due to the large - scale US fiscal deficit caused by the "Big and Beautiful" Act, the US Treasury yield remained high, and the US dollar index fluctuated around the key level of 97. The Fed Chairman paid more attention to the cooling of the US labor market, and the unemployment rate rose in the third quarter. The Fed's strict attitude towards inflation may ease [4]

财达期货｜焦煤焦炭月报 财达期货｜焦煤焦炭月报 2025-10-10 Z0019628 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 第 1 页 共 10 页 数据来源：同花顺.wind.mysteel.财达期货研发部 煤焦供应阶段性扰动，双焦期价冲高回落 展望后期，9 月中旬生态环境保护督察组分别向主要省份反馈，提到继续要推进 生态环境隐患整治、煤炭主产地继续严格落实煤炭总量控制等内容，预期中长期煤 炭总量增长受限，不过近期焦煤进口量尤其蒙煤通关车辆数增加，预计 10 月份焦煤 供应维持稳定。随着焦煤价格持续上涨，焦炭成本快速提升，焦化利润下行，在高 炉维持较高开工率的情况下，预计焦炭提涨势在必行，但随着铁水产量处于高点， 成材需求旺季需求也将进入尾声，若成材开始快速累库，则煤焦价格将面临较大压 力。 研究员 研究员姓名： 申伟光 从业资格号： F03088716 投资咨询号： 套利方面：9 月份焦煤比均值 1.42，窄幅震荡运行。从过去 5 年的季节性走势 图看，目前处于历史同期相对均位，预计呈震荡运行，关注 1.3-1.5 区间变化。 后期重点关注：关注焦煤、焦炭现货价格变化、下游成材需求变化、焦钢利润、 国际宏观 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The Fed is entering an interest rate cut cycle, and there are also expectations of domestic monetary easing. Frequent disruptions on the copper mine supply side and the arrival of the peak demand season in September and October suggest that copper prices are expected to enter an upward cycle [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections 行情回顾 - Last week, the main contract of Shanghai copper maintained a volatile trend at the beginning of the week. On Thursday, it rose sharply boosted by overseas mine production cut news and maintained a high - level volatility on Friday. The closing price on Friday was 82,470 yuan/ton, about 3.2% higher than the previous week [6]. Supply and Demand Analysis - Freeport declared force majeure at the Grasberg mine in Indonesia, and it is estimated that Freeport Indonesia's production in 2026 may be about 35% lower than the pre - event forecast. Hudbay Minerals in Canada temporarily closed the Constancia concentrator due to the volatile situation in Peru, raising concerns about the copper supply chain [4]. - The machine operating rate of the enameled wire industry failed to continue its upward trend this week, dropping 0.2 percentage points to 77.73% week - on - week, and new orders also decreased by 0.81 percentage points week - on - week. The unexpected surge in copper prices on Thursday was the key factor preventing the operating rate from rising as expected. SMM predicts that the machine operating rate of the enameled wire industry will drop to 73.53% next week [4]. - Due to the sharp rise in copper prices, downstream enterprises in the North China market currently have almost no inventory replenishment demand. Poor consumption has led processing enterprises to consider extending the National Day holiday [4]. Industry Meeting - On September 24, the 5th meeting of the 3rd Council of the Copper Branch of the China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association was held in Xiongan New Area. Chen Xuesen, a member of the Party Committee Standing Committee and Vice - President of the association, emphasized that the "involution - style" competition in the copper smelting industry has a great impact on the industry, undermines national and industry interests, and deviates from the high - quality development orientation. Copper industry enterprises should firmly oppose such competition [4].