财达期货｜股指期货周报 财达期货｜股指期货周报 2025-11-3 研究员 姓名：李津文 F0244287 Z0012495 冲高回落，仍需整理 行情回顾: 从业资格号： 上周四个股指期货品种走势冲高回落震荡整理，其中上证 50 和沪深 300 调整幅度相对较大。四个股指期货品种基差贴水深度走 势分化，但大部分主力合约合约仍保持期货贴水模式。期指主力合 约期货-现货基差，IH 收于 3.65，IF 收于-9.27，IC 收于-88.6， IM 收于-138.47。 投资咨询号： 上周 A 股市场以为主基调，虽然沪指触及 4000 点以上位置并 创近 10 年新高，但随后的回落也反映出市场信心的不足。当前月 线运行到历史压力上，还没有形成有效突破，如果不能维持强势市 场，调整的概率在逐步增大。截至上周，板块已经出现了轮动，能 源、电池和光伏设备等板块在本周表现强势的特征，大幅拉升。另 外，这是市场在这个位置横向运动 8 周后首次向上，但新高并未脱 离这个区间，没有特殊事件的影响和资金的强势拉升，这个位置的 上攻短期不具备持续性。 综合分析： 宏观方面，2025 年 10 月 30 日上午，中美元首在韩国釜山举 ...

Z0017173 财达期货｜螺纹钢、铁矿石 周报 财达期货｜螺纹钢、铁矿石 周报 2025-11-3 宏观利好逐步兑现，交易逻辑回归基本面 【螺纹钢】 研究员 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 第 1 页 共 9 页 姓名：薛国鹏 F3073406 期货方面：本周螺纹 01 合约在空头主力减仓驱动下维持反弹走势。截止周 五，螺纹 01 合约收于 3106 元/吨，环比上周上涨 60 元，周涨 幅 1.97%。 从 业 资 格 号 ： 现货方面：本周螺纹主流地区价格继续稳中有涨，整体成交转好。截止周 五，全国螺纹平均报价上调 41 元至 3260 元/吨；其中上海地区 螺纹价格上调 30 元至 3230 元/吨；杭州地区螺纹价格上调 30 元至 3280 元/吨；北京地区螺纹价格上调 80 元至 3180 元/吨； 天津地区螺纹价格上调 80 元至 3190 元/吨；广州地区螺纹价格 上调 60 元至 3330 元/吨。 投 资 咨 询 号 ： 基 本 面：供给方面：全国 247 家钢厂高炉开工率 81.75%，环比减少 2.96%， 同比减少 0.69%；高炉炼铁产能利用率 88.61%，环比减少 1.33% ...

财达期货｜焦煤焦炭周报 2025-11-03 煤矿端供应持续收紧，双焦期价震荡偏强 【期现行情】 上周焦煤 2601 合约周五收于 1286，周涨幅 3%，现货市场主流地区报价偏强运 行。 研究员 需求端：焦炭第二轮提涨落地，对焦煤价格有支撑作用，虽钢厂高炉开工率下 降但仍维持相对高位，焦钢企业仍有补库需求，对炼焦煤刚性需求不减。焦化企业 近期有所限产，焦企产能利用率略有下降，独立焦企焦煤库存继续累库。但焦钢企 业盈利状况不佳，多数仍维持按需采购为主。从焦煤线上竞拍来看，焦煤成交价格 上为主涨，成交率较高。 综合看：上周焦煤供应及需求小幅下降，从盘面看，上周焦煤 2601 合约震荡 偏强运行，短期关注 1330 附近压力位。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 数据来源：同花顺、wind，mysteel、财达期货研发部 第 1 页 共 5 页 F03088716 投 资 咨 询 号 ： Z0019628 财达期货｜ 焦煤焦炭周报 上周焦炭 2601 合约周五收于 1777，周涨幅 1.11%，现货市场主流地区报价提 涨 50-55 元/吨落地。 姓名：申伟光 从 业 资 格 号 ： 【基本面分析】 焦煤： 供应 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Gold prices are expected to remain in a consolidation phase in the near term, but the lows will be elevated [2][6]. - Gold prices will receive medium - term support as the Fed is in an obvious interest - rate cut cycle, and central banks' gold - buying trends will continue due to high US debt and the decline of the US dollar's credibility [4][5]. 3. Summary by Related Content Gold Price Performance - Last week, gold prices tumbled in the first half of the week, rebounded on Thursday, and slightly pulled back on Friday, closing with a mid - length bearish candlestick with a lower shadow, showing signs of short - term stabilization [2]. - After a sharp rise and then a sharp fall, the international gold price briefly broke below the psychological level of $4000 per ounce but then recovered, and the overall support remains effective. It also found support at the 10 - week line on the weekly chart, indicating that the medium - term upward trend is intact [5]. Trigger Factors for Gold Price Fluctuations - The sharp rise and subsequent fall in gold prices were triggered by the easing of Sino - US relations, the possible acceleration of the end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, profit - taking, and margin calls in the leveraged market [2]. Interest Rate Situation - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points last week as expected. Since last year, it has cut rates by a total of 150 basis points, with the federal funds rate dropping from a high of 5.25% - 5.5% to the current 3.75% - 4.00% [2]. - Fed Chairman Powell said that a December rate cut is not guaranteed. Although the job market is weakening, inflation pressure cannot be ignored. However, this is a routine operation of his forward - guidance, and it will not change the overall downward trend of interest rates [2]. - The Fed is currently implementing preventive rate cuts. The job market is affected by the US government shutdown, and last month's inflation data (CPI and core CPI year - on - year) was 3%, which meets the basic conditions for rate cuts. The easing of Sino - US economic and trade relations is conducive to further rate cuts by the Fed [3][4]. - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting rates by 25 basis points in December is 74.7%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 25.3%. The probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut by January next year is 57.7%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 16.6% [4]. Other Influencing Factors - As Powell will leave office in May next year, Trump is likely to restructure the Fed, and the new Fed chairman will likely follow Trump's policy of accelerating rate cuts. Future rate cuts are expected to reach at least the neutral rate of 3%, and it is very likely that 3% is not the end - point of this rate - cut cycle [4]. - The US Senate passed a resolution to end Trump's global tariff policy, but it still needs to pass the House of Representatives. Given the majority of Republican members, it may not pass. Even if it passes both houses, Trump will likely veto it, and Congress would need a two - thirds majority to override the veto, making it very difficult. Therefore, Trump's tariff war is unlikely to end completely, and market risk factors always exist, which is positive for gold prices [5].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The macro - sentiment is currently positive. Although there is no obvious improvement on the demand side, the continuous shortage of copper mines leads to a tight supply - demand situation. Copper prices are expected to maintain a volatile and slightly upward trend. Attention should be paid to subsequent macro - situations [5]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Review - Last week, the main contract of Shanghai copper futures showed a volatile and slightly upward trend, with significant increases on Thursday and Friday. The closing price on Friday was 87,720 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of about 3.9%. This was mainly related to the cease - fire in Russia - Ukraine and the expectation of China - US trade negotiations, as well as the release of the 14th Five - Year Plan suggestions in China. The lower - than - expected US inflation data on Friday night also led to a significant increase in prices during the night session [4]. Supply and Demand - In the copper concentrate spot market, the TC decreased slightly. The Mysteel standard clean copper concentrate TC weekly index was - 41.66 US dollars/dry ton, a decrease of 0.96 US dollars/dry ton from the previous week. The domestic electrolytic copper production in October is expected to decline month - on - month [4]. - Last week, the operating rate of major domestic refined copper rod enterprises was 61.55%, a slight week - on - week decrease of 0.95 percentage points; the operating rate of copper cable enterprises was 62.34%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.43 percentage points. Currently, enterprises are mainly fulfilling existing orders, and new orders are slowing down [4]. - From the perspective of downstream industries of copper cable enterprises, the State Grid has released scattered orders with limited scale and mainly for rigid demand. New orders for automotive wiring harnesses are suppressed by high copper prices. High copper prices continue to suppress consumption, and the new orders and shipments of refined copper rod enterprises are basically flat or declining. Overall consumption shows a weak performance during the peak season [4]. Macroeconomic Situation - In the US, the cooling inflation brings a basically certain interest rate cut, and the Russia - Ukraine cease - fire negotiations reduce the risk - aversion sentiment. In China, the China - US trade negotiations have released positive signals, and the 14th Five - Year Plan suggestions have been reviewed and approved by the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee [5]. - China and the US held economic and trade consultations in Malaysia from October 24th to 27th, 2025, and the Chinese leader confirmed to attend the APEC Summit in South Korea from October 30th to November 1st [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core View of the Report - The sharp decline in precious metal prices last week does not reverse the medium - to long - term bull market for gold and silver, and the core factors supporting the bull market remain [2] - The short - term decline in precious metal prices was triggered by the progress in the Russia - Ukraine conflict negotiation and the change from short squeeze to long - killing - long in the silver market, with the fundamental reason being the excessive and rapid price increases [2] - Although the end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict may be a short - term negative for gold prices, the overall global situation of de - globalization, conflicts, Fed's new round of interest rate cuts, and central banks' de - dollarization will support gold prices in the medium to long term [4] Summary by Related Content Reasons for the Sharp Decline in Precious Metal Prices Last Week - The direct trigger was the significant progress in the Russia - Ukraine conflict negotiation, which reduced market risk - aversion sentiment, and the change from short squeeze to long - killing - long in the silver market due to the relief of London silver inventory shortage [2] - The fundamental reason was the excessive and rapid increase in precious metal prices, leading to a crowded long - position and subsequent long - stampede when there were market fluctuations [2] Analysis of the Russia - Ukraine Conflict's Impact on Gold Prices - In the short term, there are still differences between Russia and Ukraine on the cease - fire conditions, and the conflict may resume. In the long run, both sides are exhausted and accumulating chips for ending the conflict [4] - The end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict will be a short - term negative for gold prices, but in the medium to long term, the overall global situation of de - globalization and conflicts will support gold prices [4] Impact of the Fed's Interest Rate Policy on Gold Prices - The slightly lower - than - expected US inflation data in September increased the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cuts. The probability of a rate cut this week is about 98% - 99%, and the probability of a rate cut in December soared from 91% to 98.5%, which will support gold prices [5] Technical Analysis of Gold Prices - After the short - term sharp decline, international gold prices have effectively tested the support at $4000 per ounce. The downward space is limited, and the market will enter a sideways consolidation phase before a potential new upward trend [6]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core View of the Report The supply of coking coal is expected to tighten, and the prices of coking coal and coke futures contracts are oscillating strongly. The coking coal 2601 contract is short - term concerned about the pressure level around 1260, and the coke 2601 contract is short - term concerned about the pressure level around 1770. Also, pay attention to the 1.35 - 1.55 range change of the coking coal ratio [2][4][5][8]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a) Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Last week, the coking coal 2601 contract closed at 1248.5 on Friday, with a weekly increase of 5.89%, and the mainstream spot market prices showed a strong trend. The coke 2601 contract closed at 1757.5 on Friday, with a weekly increase of 4.86%, and the mainstream spot market prices remained stable [4]. b) Fundamental Analysis Coking Coal - **Supply Side**: The utilization rate of the approved production capacity of 523 coking coal mines nationwide was 85.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.2%. The utilization rate of the production capacity of 314 independent coal washing plants was 36.9%, a month - on - month increase of 1.1%, and the daily output of clean coal was 267,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6,000 tons. The overall supply of coking coal increased slightly. The raw coal and clean coal inventories of mines and coal washing plants decreased [4]. - **Demand Side**: The blast furnace operating rate of downstream steel mills remained high, supporting the demand for coking coal. Some coking enterprises limited production, and the coking coal inventory of independent coking enterprises increased. Although there is an expectation of supply tightening and the second round of coke price increase has started, most enterprises still purchase on - demand, and are resistant to high - priced coal. The coking coal price in online auctions continued to rise, and the transaction rate was high [5]. - **Overall**: Last week, the supply of coking coal increased, and the demand decreased slightly. The coking coal 2601 contract oscillated strongly, and short - term attention should be paid to the pressure level around 1260 [5]. Coke - **Supply Side**: The utilization rate of the production capacity of independent coking enterprises was 73.47%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.77%. The daily output was 646,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 68,000 tons. The profit per ton of coke for 30 sample coking enterprises was - 41 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 28 yuan/ton. The supply of coke decreased slightly. The coke inventory at ports increased [7]. - **Demand Side**: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.71%, a month - on - month increase of 0.44%. The daily pig iron output was 2.399 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 105,000 tons. The profitability rate of steel mills was 47.62%, a month - on - month decrease of 7.79%. The coke inventory of steel mills decreased significantly, and some regions purchased coke actively, but most still purchased on - demand [7]. - **Overall**: Last week, the supply of coke decreased, and the demand remained stable. The coke 2601 contract oscillated strongly, and short - term attention should be paid to the pressure level around 1770 [8]. c) Inventory | Commodity | Location | Inventory (10,000 tons) | Weekly Change (10,000 tons) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coking Coal | Port | 275.65 | 2.94 | | | All - sample independent coking plants | 1029.70 | 32.33 | | | 247 sample steel mills | 782.96 | - 5.36 | | | Total | 2088.31 | 29.91 | | Coke | Port | 200.09 | 4.94 | | | All - sample independent coking plants | 58.64 | 1.35 | | | 247 sample steel mills | 633.16 | - 6.28 | | | Total | 891.89 | 0.01 | [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The hog price rebounded from a low level, with positive factors such as second - fattening entry and increased demand due to cooler weather, but high slaughterhouse enthusiasm and slow demand recovery may limit the rebound height [5] - The corn price in the spot market continued to decline with regional differences, and the futures price was volatile. The narrowing of the short - term price decline was due to factors like expanded state reserve purchases and slower selling by farmers. The market may operate in a bottom - range in the short term [6][8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Hog - **Futures and Spot Prices**: Last week, the hog futures fluctuated and rebounded. The LH2601 contract closed at 12,175 yuan/ton, up 3.05% from the previous week's settlement price. The national average market price of outer - ternary live hogs was 11.95 yuan/kg, a week - on - week increase of 0.68 yuan/kg [5] - **Profit Situation**: As of October 24, the breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised hogs was - 185.65 yuan/head, a week - on - week increase of 59.02 yuan/head; the breeding profit of purchased piglets was - 289.07 yuan/head, a week - on - week increase of 86.22 yuan/head. The hog - grain ratio was 5.15, up 0.2 week - on - week [5] - **Market Analysis**: The overall slaughter progress of farms was normal, and the entry of second - fattening was active, which alleviated the market supply pressure to some extent. With the temperature drop, the demand improved, and the trading of medium and large hogs was fair. However, the high enthusiasm of farms to sell and the slow recovery of demand may limit the short - term rebound height of hog prices [5] Corn - **Futures and Spot Prices**: Last week, the corn futures rose first and then fell. The C2601 contract closed at 2,133 yuan/ton, up 0.23% from the previous week's settlement price. The national average spot price of corn was 2,248.63 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 14.51 yuan/ton. There were price differences in different ports [6] - **Deep - processing Consumption**: From October 16 to 22, 2025, 149 major corn deep - processing enterprises consumed 126.33 million tons of corn, a week - on - week increase of 4.03 million tons. The processing volume of 60 corn starch enterprises decreased, while the production and operation rate of 35 corn alcohol sample enterprises increased significantly [7] - **Inventory Situation**: As of October 22, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 262.2 million tons, an increase of 6.50%. As of October 24, the total corn inventory of the four northern ports was about 95 million tons, and the corn inventory in Guangdong ports was 57.7 million tons [7][8] - **Market Analysis**: The national corn spot market continued to decline with regional differences. The enthusiasm of farmers in the Northeast to sell grain decreased, and the market quotation was stable with a slight upward trend. The arrival volume of deep - processing enterprises in North China first decreased and then increased, and the purchase price mainly declined. The short - term decline of corn prices narrowed, and the market may operate in a bottom - range in the short term [8]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Report's Core View - Short - term, with the strong rally of coking coal and coke, the cost - side support drives the black - chain varieties to stabilize slightly. Whether the stabilization and rebound can continue depends on the reduction efforts on the supply side and the incremental policies released [5][8][10] Group 3: Summary of Each Section 1. **[螺纹钢] (Rebar)** Futures - This week, the rebar 01 contract maintained a narrow - range consolidation driven by the short - selling main force first reducing and then increasing positions. As of Friday, it closed at 3046 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan from last week, with a weekly increase of 0.30% [5] Spot - This week, the mainstream rebar prices in major regions started to rise steadily, and overall transactions improved slightly. As of Friday, the national average rebar quotation increased by 4 yuan to 3219 yuan/ton [5] Fundamental - **Supply**: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 domestic steel mills was 84.71%, up 0.44% month - on - month and 2.57% year - on - year; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 89.94%, down 0.39% month - on - month but up 1.46% year - on - year. The average operating rate of 90 electric furnace steel mills was 67.86%, down 0.99% month - on - month and 4.19% year - on - year; the average electric furnace capacity utilization rate was 52.3%, down 0.91% month - on - month and 1.8% year - on - year. Rebar weekly output increased by 5.91 tons to 207.07 tons, still at a low level year - on - year [5] - **Demand**: This week, both the building materials trading volume and the apparent rebar consumption increased slightly. The 5 - day average building materials trading volume increased by 0.44 tons to 10.14 tons, and the apparent rebar consumption increased by 6.26 tons to 226.01 tons. In absolute terms, the apparent rebar consumption remained at a low level in the same period [7] - **Inventory**: This week, the inventory of five major steel products and rebar started to decline slightly. As of Friday, the total rebar inventory decreased by 18.94 tons to 622.11 tons. In absolute terms, the current rebar inventory remained at a low level in the same period [8] - **Basis**: As of Friday, the lowest warehouse receipt quotation for rebar in Tianjin was 3170 yuan/ton, with a premium of 124 yuan over the rebar 01 contract, a contraction of 9 yuan from last week. The current rebar basis is above the average, and it is expected that the rebar basis will continue to contract in the future [8] Comprehensive Judgment - In the short term, rebar production cuts are less than expected, and production has started to pick up slightly. The apparent rebar consumption continues to recover slowly, and rebar inventory continues to decline. Overall, short - term cost - side support drives the black - chain varieties to stabilize slightly, and the continuation of the stabilization and rebound depends on supply - side reduction and incremental policies [8] 2. **[铁矿石] (Iron Ore)** Futures - This week, the iron ore 01 contract maintained a narrow - range consolidation driven by the short - selling main force first reducing and then increasing positions. As of Friday, it closed at 771.0 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [8] Spot - This week, the prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties generally decreased slightly, while the prices of domestic iron ore concentrates started to rise steadily, and overall transactions improved. As of Friday, the price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port remained unchanged at 778 yuan/ton; the price of 61.5% PB fines at Tianjin Port increased by 5 yuan to 797 yuan/ton [8] Fundamental - **Supply**: As of the 20th, the total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2825.0 tons, an increase of 94.0 tons month - on - month. The Australian shipments were 1984.5 tons, an increase of 68.2 tons month - on - month, and the shipments from Australia to China were 1729.1 tons, an increase of 144.6 tons month - on - month. Brazilian shipments were 840.5 tons, an increase of 25.8 tons month - on - month. The total arrivals at 45 ports were 2519.4 tons, a decrease of 526.4 tons month - on - month; the total arrivals at six northern ports were 1203.2 tons, a decrease of 220.3 tons month - on - month [10] - **Demand**: Currently, the daily average port clearance volume at 45 ports is 312.65 tons, a decrease of 3.07 tons month - on - month. The weekly average trading volume of iron ore port spot is 100.9 tons, a decrease of 14.5 tons month - on - month. The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills is 239.9 tons, a decrease of 1.05 tons from last week but an increase of 4.21 tons year - on - year. The daily consumption of imported ore by 247 steel mills is 296.46 tons, a decrease of 0.89 tons month - on - month [10] - **Inventory**: As of the 24th, the iron ore inventory at 45 ports started to accumulate slightly, currently at 14423.59 tons, an increase of 145.32 tons month - on - month. The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills is 9079.19 tons, an increase of 96.47 tons month - on - month [10] - **Basis**: As of Friday, the Newman fines at Rizhao Port, the optimal delivery product, were 822 yuan/ton, with a premium of 51 yuan over the iron ore 01 contract, an expansion of 1 yuan from last week. The current iron ore basis is above the average, and it is expected that the iron ore basis will have limited room for further expansion and is likely to start contracting [10] Comprehensive Judgment - In the short term, the shipments of imported iron ore have started to pick up slightly, and the expected arrivals next week will decline, which may relieve the port inventory pressure. On the demand side, the daily average pig iron output continues to decline, and the steel mill's daily consumption has decreased slightly. Overall, short - term cost - side support drives the black - chain varieties to stabilize slightly, and the continuation of the stabilization and rebound depends on supply - side reduction and incremental policies [10]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the four stock index futures varieties mainly trended upwards, with relatively large increases in CSI 500 and CSI 1000. The basis discount depth of the four stock index futures varieties decreased, but most of the main contracts remained in the futures discount mode. The A - share market was volatile in the early part of the week, but a significant increase on Friday and the Shanghai Composite Index hitting a 10 - year high made the situation clearer. The information from the Fourth Plenary Session injected new confidence and momentum into the market [4]. - After the successful conclusion of the Fourth Plenary Session, the "15th Five - Year Plan" ideas are clear, and there is progress in China - US high - level economic and trade consultations. Overseas, the US inflation is mild and employment is weak, which is expected to strengthen the Fed's expectation of further interest rate cuts. The market is likely to return to a performance - driven structural market [6]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Market Review - The four stock index futures varieties trended upwards last week, with CSI 500 and CSI 1000 having relatively large increases. The basis of the main contracts were: IH at 2.78, IF at - 25.88, IC at - 98.73, and IM at - 121.24. The A - share market was volatile in the early part of the week, but a large single - day increase on Friday and the Shanghai Composite Index hitting a 10 - year high ended the oscillation. The trading volume of the Science and Technology Innovation Board and the ChiNext Index increased significantly, and many leading stocks hit new highs [4]. 3.2 Comprehensive Analysis - Macroscopically, after the Fourth Plenary Session, the "15th Five - Year Plan" ideas are clear, and there is progress in China - US high - level economic and trade consultations. Overseas, the US September CPI was lower than expected, and the overall inflation situation remained stable. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates twice by 25bps each this year. The market is likely to return to a performance - driven structural market [6].