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股指期货周报:震荡整理,韧性犹在-20251110
Cai Da Qi Huo· 2025-11-10 07:03
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the four stock index futures varieties showed a trend of oscillating consolidation, and the A - share market had certain fluctuations but ended the week with a positive line. The market is expected to be in an oscillating upward channel, but the post - third - quarter market will be more tortuous [3][5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Last week, the four stock index futures varieties mainly oscillated and consolidated, with CSI 500 having a relatively large adjustment range. All main contracts remained in the futures discount mode, with IH at - 0.15, IF at - 19.39, IC at - 97.71, and IM at - 129.88. The A - share market was affected by the sharp decline of US stocks but recovered in the second half of the week. The market style rotated rapidly, and the expectation of the overall recovery of the new energy industry was increasing [3] Comprehensive Analysis - Overseas, the US federal government shut down, the Fed cut interest rates again in October and maintained its September economic judgment, and the euro - zone economy showed a marginal improvement with the ECB keeping policy rates unchanged. Macroscopically, China's October PMI declined compared to the previous value, and the trade data showed a slight decline in exports and a slowdown in import growth in October, but it will improve in November. The A - share market is still in an oscillating upward channel, but the post - third - quarter market will be more tortuous [4][5]
焦炭第三轮提涨落地,双焦期价震荡运行
Cai Da Qi Huo· 2025-11-10 07:03
上周焦炭 2601 合约周五收于 1756.5,周跌幅 1.15%,现货市场主流地区报价 提涨 50-55 元/吨落地。 姓名:申伟光 财达期货|焦煤焦炭周报 2025-11-10 焦炭第三轮提涨落地,双焦期价震荡运行 【期现行情】 上周焦煤 2601 合约周五收于 1270,周跌幅 1.24%,现货市场主流地区报价偏 强运行。 研究员 【基本面分析】 焦煤: 投 资 咨 询 号 : 供应端:上周全国 523 家炼焦煤矿山核定产能利用率 83.8%,环比下降 1%;精 煤日均产量 73.8 万吨,环比减少 2 万吨。全国 314 家独立洗煤厂产能利用率 37.6%, 环比上升 1.21%;精煤日均产量 27.5 万吨,环比减少 1 万吨。上周,煤矿主产地安 全监管及环保督察等方面依然较严格,临近年底,煤矿查超产情形使得部分国有煤 矿严格按要求生产,煤矿产能释放困难,供应仍趋紧张。库存方面,因洗煤厂生产 较积极,炼焦煤矿山原煤库存下降幅度较大,精煤库存小幅增加。 需求端:钢厂高炉开工率仍维持相对高位,焦钢企业仍有补库需求,对炼焦煤 刚性需求不减。焦炭第三轮提涨落地,焦企成本压力得到缓解,且焦企厂内库存处 于历史 ...
生猪、玉米周报-20251110
Cai Da Qi Huo· 2025-11-10 07:03
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The live hog price is oscillating, and the corn futures market is oscillating and rebounding. The short - term live hog price may stabilize, and the corn market is in a supply - demand game stage with suggestions to participate in the short - term trading [3][5][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Live Hogs - Futures: Last week, the live hog futures were in a low - level oscillation. The LH2601 contract closed at 11,865 yuan/ton, a 0.08% decline from the previous week's settlement price [5] - Spot: The national average market price of outer three - yuan live hogs was 11.98 yuan/kg, a week - on - week decrease of 0.53 yuan/kg [5] - Profit: As of November 7, the self - breeding and self - raising live hog breeding profit was - 89.21 yuan/head, a week - on - week increase of 0.12 yuan/head; the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 175.54 yuan/head, a week - on - week increase of 4.18 yuan/head; the pig - grain ratio was 5.53, a week - on - week decrease of 0.01 [5] - Market situation: The national live hog spot price stopped rising and fell last week. The market supply increased, but the downstream demand was insufficient. However, as the price dropped again, the slaughter acquisition sentiment improved, and the retail farmers' resistance to price cuts was strong. The short - term price may stabilize [5] Corn - Futures: Last week, the corn futures were oscillating strongly. The C2601 contract closed at 2,149 yuan/ton, a 1.46% increase from the previous week's settlement price [6] - Spot: The national average spot price of corn was 2,238.53 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1.47 yuan/ton. Different ports had different price changes [6] - Consumption: From October 30 to November 5, 2025, 149 major corn deep - processing enterprises consumed 1.3818 million tons of corn, a week - on - week increase of 0.0286 million tons. The corn starch industry's开机率 increased, while the alcohol industry's开机率 decreased [7] - Inventory: As of November 5, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 2.795 million tons, a decrease of 1.13%. As of November 7, the total corn inventory of the four northern ports was about 1.02 million tons, and the corn inventory in Guangdong ports was 0.87 million tons [7] - Market situation: The decline of the national corn spot price slowed down last week. The market is in the new grain listing stage, with the purchase scope of the State Reserve Grain Corporation expanding. The downstream low - inventory enterprises have restocking needs, but the power to continuously raise prices is limited. The short - term corn market is in a supply - demand game, and the futures market is oscillating and rebounding [8]
财达期货|贵金属周报:短期横盘蓄势-20251110
Cai Da Qi Huo· 2025-11-10 07:03
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - Gold prices are in a short - term consolidation phase and are expected to continue rising in the medium and long term. Short - term international gold prices are supported at around $4000 per ounce, and prices may reach new highs in the medium and long term [2][8] 3. Summary by Related Content Gold Market Performance - Last week, gold prices were mainly in a sideways trend, with international gold prices remaining around $4000 per ounce [3] Macroeconomic Data - As of the end of October 2025, China's foreign exchange reserve scale was $3343.343 billion, up about $470 million from the end of September, an increase of 0.14%. The central bank's gold reserve at the end of October was 74.09 million ounces (about 2304.457 tons), a month - on - month increase of 30,000 ounces (about 0.93 tons) [3] Geopolitical Factors - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, with Russia strengthening its attacks. The intensification of the conflict in the short term supports gold prices [4] US Economic Situation - The US government shutdown has lasted for 38 days, the longest on record, which has had a significant impact on the economy. In November, the consumer confidence index dropped to 50.3, about 3 percentage points lower than last month and about 30% lower than the same period last year. The US labor market is cooling, and the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 62.5% [5][6] Dollar Index - The dollar index rebounded above 100 but then weakened again, falling back to around 99.50 last Friday. A weaker dollar is beneficial for the stabilization of gold prices [8]
铜周报:铜价短期震荡走势为主-20251110
Cai Da Qi Huo· 2025-11-10 07:03
财达期货|铜周报 财达期货|铜周报 2025-11-10 铜价短期震荡走势为主 F3084967 Z0018883 总的来看,鲍威尔言论偏鹰对铜价不利,下游需求不能为铜价提供持续 上行动能,前期冲高后短期有回调压力,铜价可能重回震荡走势,但基本面 支撑较强,中长期还是易涨难跌。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 第 1页共 3页 财达期货|铜周报 国内外铜期货近期走势 数据来源:同花顺 iFinD 国内铜现货价格近期走势 数据来源:同花顺 iFinD 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 第 2页共 3页 行情回顾:上周沪铜主力合约周一大幅走弱,延续上周冲高回落的跌势, 后续周内维持震荡走势,周五收于 85920 元/吨,较上周有 1.25%的跌幅。 供需方面,嘉能可(Glencore)公布数据显示前三个季度铜产量下降 17%, 公司还下调了今年铜产量目标。进口铜精矿现货 TC 指数维持在-42 美元/吨 一线,现货冶炼利润持续亏损。SMM 铜线缆企业开工率 63.45%,环比回升 2.66 个百分点,铜价出现回调,缓解了部分前期高铜价对需求的抑制。下游 提货节奏加快,漆包线行业成品库存周转天数也有小幅下降。SM ...
生猪、玉米周报-20251103
Cai Da Qi Huo· 2025-11-03 06:57
财达期货|生猪玉米周报 财达期货|生猪、玉米周报 2025-11-03 生猪价格反弹受限,玉米底部区间震荡 研究员 姓名:田金莲 F3046737 Z0015545 生猪 上周全国生猪现货价格偏强运行,养殖场月度计划完成尚可, 临近月底出栏压力减轻。同时二育持续入场,大猪需求较好,整体 成交有溢价,屠宰企业宰量相应提升,拉动生猪价格上涨。目前来 看,月初集团场缩量扛价,加之标肥价差有进一步走扩预期,散户 压栏惜售情绪较强;不过持续涨价后,下游屠企订单缩减,分割量 同步下降,同时二育情绪有所减退,生猪价格反弹承压,后期还是 要关注养殖端出栏节奏。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 第 1 页 共 7 页 财达期货|生猪玉米周报 上周生猪期货高开低走,LH2601 合约报收 11815 元/吨,较前 周结算价下跌 2.56%。 从业资格号: 投资咨询号: 现货方面,全国外三元生猪市场价为 12.51 元/公斤,环比上 涨 0.56 元/公斤。利润方面,截至 10 月 31 日,自繁自养生猪养殖 利润为-89.33 元/头,环比增加 96.33 元/头;外购仔猪养殖利润 为-179.72 元/头,环比增加 109. ...
股指期货周报:冲高回落,仍需整理-20251103
Cai Da Qi Huo· 2025-11-03 06:57
财达期货|股指期货周报 财达期货|股指期货周报 2025-11-3 研究员 姓名:李津文 F0244287 Z0012495 冲高回落,仍需整理 行情回顾: 从业资格号: 上周四个股指期货品种走势冲高回落震荡整理,其中上证 50 和沪深 300 调整幅度相对较大。四个股指期货品种基差贴水深度走 势分化,但大部分主力合约合约仍保持期货贴水模式。期指主力合 约期货-现货基差,IH 收于 3.65,IF 收于-9.27,IC 收于-88.6, IM 收于-138.47。 投资咨询号: 上周 A 股市场以为主基调,虽然沪指触及 4000 点以上位置并 创近 10 年新高,但随后的回落也反映出市场信心的不足。当前月 线运行到历史压力上,还没有形成有效突破,如果不能维持强势市 场,调整的概率在逐步增大。截至上周,板块已经出现了轮动,能 源、电池和光伏设备等板块在本周表现强势的特征,大幅拉升。另 外,这是市场在这个位置横向运动 8 周后首次向上,但新高并未脱 离这个区间,没有特殊事件的影响和资金的强势拉升,这个位置的 上攻短期不具备持续性。 综合分析: 宏观方面,2025 年 10 月 30 日上午,中美元首在韩国釜山举 ...
螺纹钢、铁矿石周报:宏观利好逐步兑现,交易逻辑回归基本面-20251103
Cai Da Qi Huo· 2025-11-03 06:56
Z0017173 财达期货|螺纹钢、铁矿石 周报 财达期货|螺纹钢、铁矿石 周报 2025-11-3 宏观利好逐步兑现,交易逻辑回归基本面 【螺纹钢】 研究员 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 第 1 页 共 9 页 姓名:薛国鹏 F3073406 期货方面:本周螺纹 01 合约在空头主力减仓驱动下维持反弹走势。截止周 五,螺纹 01 合约收于 3106 元/吨,环比上周上涨 60 元,周涨 幅 1.97%。 从 业 资 格 号 : 现货方面:本周螺纹主流地区价格继续稳中有涨,整体成交转好。截止周 五,全国螺纹平均报价上调 41 元至 3260 元/吨;其中上海地区 螺纹价格上调 30 元至 3230 元/吨;杭州地区螺纹价格上调 30 元至 3280 元/吨;北京地区螺纹价格上调 80 元至 3180 元/吨; 天津地区螺纹价格上调 80 元至 3190 元/吨;广州地区螺纹价格 上调 60 元至 3330 元/吨。 投 资 咨 询 号 : 基 本 面:供给方面:全国 247 家钢厂高炉开工率 81.75%,环比减少 2.96%, 同比减少 0.69%;高炉炼铁产能利用率 88.61%,环比减少 1.33% ...
焦煤焦炭周报:煤矿端供应持续收紧,双焦期价震荡偏强-20251103
Cai Da Qi Huo· 2025-11-03 06:53
财达期货|焦煤焦炭周报 2025-11-03 煤矿端供应持续收紧,双焦期价震荡偏强 【期现行情】 上周焦煤 2601 合约周五收于 1286,周涨幅 3%,现货市场主流地区报价偏强运 行。 研究员 需求端:焦炭第二轮提涨落地,对焦煤价格有支撑作用,虽钢厂高炉开工率下 降但仍维持相对高位,焦钢企业仍有补库需求,对炼焦煤刚性需求不减。焦化企业 近期有所限产,焦企产能利用率略有下降,独立焦企焦煤库存继续累库。但焦钢企 业盈利状况不佳,多数仍维持按需采购为主。从焦煤线上竞拍来看,焦煤成交价格 上为主涨,成交率较高。 综合看:上周焦煤供应及需求小幅下降,从盘面看,上周焦煤 2601 合约震荡 偏强运行,短期关注 1330 附近压力位。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 数据来源:同花顺、wind,mysteel、财达期货研发部 第 1 页 共 5 页 F03088716 投 资 咨 询 号 : Z0019628 财达期货| 焦煤焦炭周报 上周焦炭 2601 合约周五收于 1777,周涨幅 1.11%,现货市场主流地区报价提 涨 50-55 元/吨落地。 姓名:申伟光 从 业 资 格 号 : 【基本面分析】 焦煤: 供应 ...
贵金属周报:短期仍会整理,底部会有抬高-20251103
Cai Da Qi Huo· 2025-11-03 06:47
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Gold prices are expected to remain in a consolidation phase in the near term, but the lows will be elevated [2][6]. - Gold prices will receive medium - term support as the Fed is in an obvious interest - rate cut cycle, and central banks' gold - buying trends will continue due to high US debt and the decline of the US dollar's credibility [4][5]. 3. Summary by Related Content Gold Price Performance - Last week, gold prices tumbled in the first half of the week, rebounded on Thursday, and slightly pulled back on Friday, closing with a mid - length bearish candlestick with a lower shadow, showing signs of short - term stabilization [2]. - After a sharp rise and then a sharp fall, the international gold price briefly broke below the psychological level of $4000 per ounce but then recovered, and the overall support remains effective. It also found support at the 10 - week line on the weekly chart, indicating that the medium - term upward trend is intact [5]. Trigger Factors for Gold Price Fluctuations - The sharp rise and subsequent fall in gold prices were triggered by the easing of Sino - US relations, the possible acceleration of the end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, profit - taking, and margin calls in the leveraged market [2]. Interest Rate Situation - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points last week as expected. Since last year, it has cut rates by a total of 150 basis points, with the federal funds rate dropping from a high of 5.25% - 5.5% to the current 3.75% - 4.00% [2]. - Fed Chairman Powell said that a December rate cut is not guaranteed. Although the job market is weakening, inflation pressure cannot be ignored. However, this is a routine operation of his forward - guidance, and it will not change the overall downward trend of interest rates [2]. - The Fed is currently implementing preventive rate cuts. The job market is affected by the US government shutdown, and last month's inflation data (CPI and core CPI year - on - year) was 3%, which meets the basic conditions for rate cuts. The easing of Sino - US economic and trade relations is conducive to further rate cuts by the Fed [3][4]. - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting rates by 25 basis points in December is 74.7%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 25.3%. The probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut by January next year is 57.7%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 16.6% [4]. Other Influencing Factors - As Powell will leave office in May next year, Trump is likely to restructure the Fed, and the new Fed chairman will likely follow Trump's policy of accelerating rate cuts. Future rate cuts are expected to reach at least the neutral rate of 3%, and it is very likely that 3% is not the end - point of this rate - cut cycle [4]. - The US Senate passed a resolution to end Trump's global tariff policy, but it still needs to pass the House of Representatives. Given the majority of Republican members, it may not pass. Even if it passes both houses, Trump will likely veto it, and Congress would need a two - thirds majority to override the veto, making it very difficult. Therefore, Trump's tariff war is unlikely to end completely, and market risk factors always exist, which is positive for gold prices [5].