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股指期货周报:保持强势,温和整理-20250728
Cai Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-28 06:36
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the four stock index futures varieties continued to rise, with CSI 500 and CSI 1000 showing relatively strong performance Most of the basis of the four stock index futures varieties was in the futures discount mode The A - share market remained upward, with the market strength gradually increasing and the trading volume rising The Wande All - A index broke through last year's October high, and the scope of hot industries expanded, with industries entering a virtuous rotation [2] - Looking ahead to next week, the incremental funds for this upward movement initially came from a wide range of net inflows of institutional funds As the market's money - making effect accumulates, the inflow of retail investors is accelerating, and the market heat is rising The "anti - involution" narrative logic is strengthening The policy of "anti - involution" is both a short - term measure to stabilize the price level and revive nominal growth and a long - term strategic choice to build a consumption - driven economy [3][4] 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Contents Market Performance - Last week, the four stock index futures varieties showed a general upward trend, with CSI 500 and CSI 1000 being relatively strong The basis of the futures main contracts was as follows: IH was 1.29, IF was - 11.16, IC was - 83.59, and IM was - 100.81 [2] - The A - share market continued to rise last week, with Friday's adjustment not affecting its overall strength The Wande All - A index broke through last year's October high, and industries entered a virtuous rotation, with low - position chip semiconductors and the computer sector taking over the rise on Friday [2] Market Outlook - Next week, the incremental funds for the upward movement initially came from institutional net inflows, and the inflow of retail investors is accelerating The market heat is rising, and the "anti - involution" narrative logic is strengthening [3] Policy Impact - The Sixth Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission mentioned "anti - involution" again, making the top - down "anti - involution" policy thinking clearer and accelerating the pace of governing the disorderly low - price competition of enterprises in various industries "Anti - involution" is both a short - term measure for economic stability and a long - term strategic choice [4]
生猪期货冲高回落,玉米期货反弹承压
Cai Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-28 06:21
Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the weekly report on live pigs and corn from July 22 - 28, 2025, published by Caida Futures [1] Group 2: Live Pig Market Futures and Spot Market - Last week, the live pig futures rose significantly and then fell back. The LH2509 contract closed at 14,385 yuan/ton, up 1.91% from the previous week's settlement price [5] - As of July 25, the self - breeding and self - raising live pig breeding profit was 62.16 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 28.73 yuan/head; the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 71.39 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 52.73 yuan/head; the pig - grain ratio was 6.02, a week - on - week decrease of 0.15 [5] Price Trend and Policy Impact - The national live pig spot price rose first and then fell last week. At the beginning of the week, affected by the typhoon, the breeding side reduced supply and resisted price cuts. As the weather impact weakened, group enterprises increased their slaughter, and terminal demand was weak, causing the price to decline slightly [5] - On July 23, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a symposium on promoting the high - quality development of the live pig industry, proposing to implement capacity control measures, reduce the number of breeding sows, and control fat pig slaughter weight. This news boosted the live pig futures to break through 15,000, reaching a new high for the year [5] Short - term Outlook - In the short term, farms have completed their slaughter plans well, but demand is weak, which restricts the live pig market. Prices may fluctuate, and market sentiment changes should be monitored [5] Group 3: Corn Market Futures and Spot Market - Last week, the corn futures rose and then fell back. The C2509 contract closed at 2,311 yuan/ton, up 0.26% from the previous week's settlement price [6] - The national average corn spot price was 2,407.84 yuan/ton, up 2.84 yuan/ton week - on - week [6] Port Prices - As of July 25, in Jinzhou Port, the price of corn with 15% moisture and 720 bulk density was 2,290 - 2,310 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 30 - 40 yuan/ton; the flat - hatch price of 15% moisture corn was 2,320 - 2,330 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week [6] - In Bayuquan Port, the price of corn with 15% moisture and 720 bulk density was 2,290 - 2,310 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 40 yuan/ton; the flat - hatch price of 15% moisture corn was 2,320 - 2,330 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week [6] - In Guangdong Shekou Port, the transaction price of 15% moisture bulk corn was 2,410 - 2,430 yuan/ton, and the price of first - grade corn was 2,450 - 2,470 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/ton [6] Industrial Consumption and Inventory - From July 17 - 23, 2025, 149 major corn deep - processing enterprises consumed 1.0624 million tons of corn, a decrease of 38,100 tons from the previous week [7] - The processing volume of 60 corn starch enterprises was 501,500 tons, a decrease of 36,300 tons from the previous week; the weekly corn starch output was 235,200 tons, a decrease of 25,000 tons from the previous week; the weekly operating rate was 45.46% [7] - The operating rate of the DDGS industry was 38.63%, up 0.29% from the previous week; the weekly production of DDGS was 78,620 tons, an increase of 590 tons from the previous week [7] - As of July 23, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 4.005 million tons, a decrease of 6.21% [7] - As of July 25, the total corn inventory in the four northern ports was about 2.18 million tons, and the corn inventory in Guangdong ports was 950,000 tons [7] Market Outlook - The national corn spot market stopped falling and rose slightly last week. After continuous grain sales and a decrease in imported corn auctions, traders were reluctant to sell, and enterprise purchase prices mainly increased [8] - Corn starch enterprises are entering the summer maintenance stage, with a significant decline in the operating rate and a continuous decrease in corn consumption. Feed enterprises are digesting previous inventories, and their demand for corn procurement is relatively weak [8] - Overall, trader inventories have decreased significantly, the overall shipment pace has slowed down, market supply has decreased, and the impact of imported corn auctions on the market has weakened. However, considering the limited restocking demand of downstream enterprises, corn prices are expected to stabilize, and the rebound space of the futures is limited, with short - term low - level fluctuations expected [8]
贵金属周报:短期横盘蓄势-20250721
Cai Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-21 06:36
Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - Gold prices are in short - term consolidation, and the upward trend remains unchanged. The short - term is in a sideways accumulation phase, and the medium - term will maintain a volatile upward trend [2][8] - Due to the decrease in inflation expectations, the possibility of a rate cut at the end of this year and comprehensive rate cuts next year are high, and the weakening of the US dollar will support gold prices [4] - The overall economic outlook is neutral to slightly pessimistic, and the uncertainty of the economy and policies will also affect the gold market [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Contents Gold Price Performance - Last week, the New York gold price closed at $3356 per ounce, and the Shanghai gold price closed at around 778 yuan per gram [3] US Economic Data - In June, the US CPI rebounded, with a month - on - month increase of 0.3% and a year - on - year increase of 2.7%, the highest since February. The core CPI increased by 0.2% month - on - month and 2.9% year - on - year. The PPI data was weak, with a year - on - year increase of 2.3% and a month - on - month increase of 0%. The core PPI year - on - year increase was 2.6%. Inflation expectations have decreased [4] Fed's Economic Outlook - The Fed's Beige Book shows that economic activity has slightly expanded, and the overall economic outlook is neutral to slightly pessimistic. Recruitment is cautious, and price pressures are emerging [5][6] Market Events - Trump's statement about firing Powell and then denying it caused market fluctuations. Whether to replace Powell has an impact on the market's expectations of interest rate cuts. Trump's threat to impose a 30% tariff on the EU and Mexico also adds uncertainty [7][8]
铁水超预期增加提振下,螺矿盘面放量突破上涨
Cai Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-21 06:11
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short term, the steel market is affected by seasonal factors, with steel demand facing seasonal weakening pressure. The market is also concerned about future export demand. For steel, it is necessary to pay attention to short - term steel mill production cuts and the impact of the Sino - US trade war on the market. For iron ore, the short - term high hot metal output and low steel mill inventory provide strong support, but the marginal impact of weakening terminal demand on hot metal needs to be monitored [5][7][9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **[Ribbed Bars]** - **Futures**: The 10 - contract of ribbed bars continued its rebound trend driven by the reduction of short - position main players. As of Friday, it closed at 3147 yuan/ton, up 14.0 yuan from last week, with a weekly increase of 0.45% [5]. - **Spot**: The prices of ribbed bars in mainstream regions generally increased significantly, and overall transactions improved slightly. The national average price of ribbed bars increased by 24 yuan to 3319 yuan/ton [5]. - **Fundamentals - Supply**: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 domestic steel mills was 83.46%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.31% and a year - on - year increase of 0.83%. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.89%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.99% and a year - on - year increase of 1.27%. The average operating rate of 87 electric furnace steel mills was 65.08%, with a month - on - month increase of 1.49% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.29%. The weekly output of ribbed bars decreased by 7.6 tons to 209.06 tons, remaining at a low level year - on - year [5]. - **Fundamentals - Short - process Steel Mills**: The estimated cost of electric furnaces in East China was 3147 yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 175 yuan. The profit of electric furnace ribbed bars was a loss of 227 yuan, with a month - on - month reduction of 13 yuan in the loss [5]. - **Fundamentals - Long - process Steel Mills**: The estimated cost of crude steel in East China was 2729 yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 73 yuan. The profit of blast furnace ribbed bars was 191 yuan, with a month - on - month reduction of 43 yuan. The profit of long - process steel mills shrank significantly [5]. - **Demand**: The building material trading volume and the apparent consumption of ribbed bars continued to decline slightly. The 5 - day average trading volume of building materials decreased by 0.33 tons to 9.50 tons, and the apparent demand for ribbed bars decreased by 15.33 tons to 206.17 tons, remaining at a low level in the same period [9]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products decreased slightly, while the inventory of ribbed bars began to increase slightly. As of Friday, the total inventory of ribbed bars increased by 2.89 tons to 543.26 tons, remaining at a low level in the same period [9]. - **Basis**: As of Friday, the lowest warehouse - receipt quotation for ribbed bars in Shanghai was 3250 yuan/ton, with a premium of 103 yuan over the 10 - contract of ribbed bars, and the basis was expected to continue to widen [9]. - **Comprehensive Judgment**: In the short term, ribbed bar production will continue to decline slightly, demand will decline significantly, and inventory will increase slightly. Technically, the weekly - level trend is likely to be weak, while the daily - level trend is stabilizing and rebounding [9]. **[Iron Ore]** - **Futures**: The 09 - contract of iron ore continued its rebound trend driven by the increase of long - position main players. As of Friday, it closed at 785.0 yuan/ton, up 21.0 yuan/ton from last week, with a weekly increase of 2.75% [7]. - **Spot**: The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties continued to increase slightly, and the prices of domestic iron ore concentrates began to rise steadily. Overall transactions were average [7]. - **Fundamentals - Supply**: As of the 14th, the total shipment volume of Australian and Brazilian iron ore was 2558.8 tons, a month - on - month increase of 93.8 tons. The 45 - port arrival volume was 2662.1 tons, a month - on - month increase of 178.2 tons [12]. - **Fundamentals - Demand**: The current average daily port clearance volume of 45 ports was 322.74 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.23 tons. The average daily hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 242.44 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.63 tons [12]. - **Inventory**: As of the 18th, the iron ore inventory at 45 ports began to increase slightly, reaching 13785.21 tons. The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills was 8822.16 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 157.48 tons [12]. - **Basis**: As of Friday, the Newmann powder at Qingdao Port was the optimal delivery product at 805 yuan/ton, with a premium of 20 yuan over the 10 - contract of iron ore, and the basis was expected to widen [12]. - **Comprehensive Judgment**: After the end of the quarterly volume rush, the iron ore shipment volume is expected to decline, while the arrival volume will gradually increase. The short - term high hot metal output and low steel mill inventory provide strong support, but the impact of weakening terminal demand needs to be monitored [12].
财达期货铜周报:铜价短期走强为主-20250721
Cai Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-21 03:53
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The current off - season characteristics of the copper market's fundamentals are still obvious, and macro - policies dominate the copper price trend. Domestic anti - involution and key industry growth - stabilizing policies drive the short - term strengthening of copper prices. The Trump 232 tariff policy currently has limited impact on domestic copper prices, but subsequent macro uncertainties need attention [5] 3. Summary by Related Contents 3.1 Supply and Demand - The copper concentrate processing fee TC remains in the negative range, at a historically extremely low level. Downstream cable orders have not improved significantly. The short - term start - up of copper rods in the processing link has rebounded but is lower than the seasonal level of last year. Due to the decline in copper prices, the order volume of downstream enterprises has increased, and the operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises has risen to 77.22%. However, downstream consumption is not optimistic as the increase in the operating rate is mainly due to the resumption of production after previous shutdowns. The machine - operating rate of the enameled wire industry has decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 80.8%, and the newly received order volume has decreased by 0.37 percentage points, mainly affected by the off - season of home appliance consumption. The spot market of copper concentrate has seen few transactions this week. After the price decline, although the market's purchasing enthusiasm has improved, overall, it is still mainly for rigid demand due to the off - season [4] 3.2 Macroeconomic Situation - China's Q2 GDP increased by 5.2% year - on - year, slightly higher than market expectations. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to introduce a growth - stabilizing work plan for ten key industries, which will promote these industries to adjust the structure, optimize supply, and eliminate backward production capacity. On Friday night, copper, aluminum, lead, and nickel all rose by more than 1%. The US overall CPI annual rate in June rose to 2.7%, the highest since February, in line with market expectations, and the expectation of interest rate cuts has decreased. The US retail sales in June increased by 0.6% month - on - month, far higher than the market - expected 0.1%. As the impact of tariffs is passed on to consumer prices, Fed officials have different opinions on interest rate cuts [4] 3.3 Market Review - Last week, the main contract of Shanghai copper showed weak and volatile trends at the beginning of the week. Affected by macro factors, it strengthened at the night session on Friday, recovering the decline at the beginning of the week. The closing price of 78,410 yuan/ton was basically the same as that of the previous Friday [6]
生猪、玉米周报:生猪价格重心下移,玉米期货小幅反弹-20250721
Cai Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-21 03:53
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The price of live pigs is expected to have limited upward momentum in the short - term due to weak demand despite some price - holding intentions from the breeding side. The price of corn futures rebounded slightly, but the upside space is also expected to be limited [5][8] 3. Summary by Related Topics Live Pigs - Futures: The LH2509 contract of live pig futures closed at 14,135 yuan/ton last week, down 1.5% from the previous week's settlement price [5] - Spot: The national average price of external ternary live pigs was 14.81 yuan/kg, a week - on - week decrease of 0.11 yuan/kg [5] - Profit: As of July 18, the self - breeding and self - raising profit per pig was 90.89 yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 42.98 yuan; the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 18.66 yuan per pig, a week - on - week decrease of 50.26 yuan. The pig - grain ratio was 6.17, a week - on - week decrease of 0.11 [5] - Market situation: The national live pig spot market was weak last week. Although there was some support from transportation and secondary fattening, the market was adjusted weakly due to the resumption of normal slaughter rhythm by breeding enterprises and weak demand. The inventory of sows capable of reproduction at the end of the second quarter was 40.43 million, 103.7% of the normal level. The inventory of medium and large pigs over 5 months old in June decreased by 0.8% compared with the previous month, indicating a possible decrease in slaughter volume in July and August [5] Corn - Futures: The C2509 contract of corn futures closed at 2314 yuan/ton last week, up 0.09% from the previous week's settlement price [6] - Spot: The national average price of corn was 2405 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 16.57 yuan/ton. The prices at ports such as Jinzhou, Bayuquan, and Guangdong Shekou all declined to varying degrees [6] - Industrial consumption: From July 10 to July 16, 2025, 149 major corn deep - processing enterprises consumed 1.1005 million tons of corn, a decrease of 57,300 tons from the previous week. The processing volume of corn starch enterprises increased by 1100 tons, and the output of corn starch increased by 800 tons. The DDGS industry's start - up rate decreased by 4.62 percentage points to 38.34%, and the output decreased by 9400 tons, a decline of 10.75% [7] - Inventory: As of July 16, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 4.27 million tons, a decrease of 3.74%. As of July 18, the total corn inventory in the four northern ports was about 2.3 million tons, and the corn inventory in Guangdong ports was 1.07 million tons [7] - Market situation: The national corn spot market continued to decline last week. The auction of imported corn was weak, but the purchase price of deep - processing enterprises in North China rebounded after a continuous decline. The start - up rate of the corn starch industry was still at a low level, and the demand for wheat from feed enterprises decreased. With the new auction announcement, the decline of corn spot prices may narrow [8]
财达期货|股指期货周报-20250721
Cai Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-21 03:53
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The A-share market is expected to continue its upward trend, with the policy adjustment and the continuous listing of high-quality assets driving the index up, reflecting the improvement of market liquidity and the trend of value revaluation [3][4] - After the A-share market turns into an incremental market following the Hong Kong stock market, and with the stabilization of trade war expectations and the end of the interim report season in August, a sectoral market may form again [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - Last week, the four stock index futures varieties continued to rise across the board, with CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 showing relatively strong performance. Most of the basis of the four stock index futures varieties was in the mode of futures discount [2] - The A-share market continued to rise last week, with the CSI All-Share Index rising more than 1% for three consecutive weeks, and the trading volume remaining at a relatively high level. The financial industry represented by banks, securities, and insurance showed relatively weak performance, but its previous large gains and temporary adjustment helped relieve the liquidity pressure on other small and medium-sized sectors [2] 3.2 Market Outlook - The A-share market is expected to gradually turn into an incremental market after the Hong Kong stock market. With the stabilization of trade war expectations and the end of the interim report season in August, a sectoral market may form again [3] - Policy adjustment and the continuous listing of high-quality assets drive the index up, reflecting the improvement of market liquidity and the trend of value revaluation. The current low-valued manufacturing sector may be boosted by the inflow of incremental funds [4]
焦炭提涨落地,双焦期价震荡运行
Cai Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-21 03:48
Group 1: Report Overview - Report title: "Caida Futures | Coking Coal and Coke Weekly Report 2025-07-21" [1] - Core view: Last week, the first round of coke price increase was implemented, and the prices of coking coal and coke futures fluctuated. The supply and demand of coking coal both increased slightly, and the supply and demand of coke also increased slightly. After the emotional boost, the market will return to fundamentals, and attention should be paid to the risks brought by the callback of spot prices. The coking coal ratio is currently at a high level in the same period of history, and attention should be paid to the range change of 1.5 - 1.8 [2][5][8] Group 2: Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Coking coal 2509 contract closed at 926 on Friday last week, with a weekly increase of 1.42%, and the spot market prices in mainstream areas showed a strong trend. Coke 2509 contract closed at 1518 on Friday last week, with a weekly decrease of 0.1%, and the spot market prices in mainstream areas increased by 50 - 55 yuan/ton [4] Group 3: Fundamental Analysis - Coking Coal Supply - The utilization rate of approved production capacity of 523 coking coal mines nationwide was 86.1%, a month - on - month increase of 0.6%. The operating rate of 110 coal washing plants nationwide was 62.85%, a month - on - month increase of 0.52%; the daily average output was 53.38 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.79 tons. The raw coal and clean coal inventories of coal washing plants continued to decrease [4] Demand - The blast furnace operating rate of steel mills remained high, and the demand for raw coal was supported. After the first round of coke price increase, the loss of coke enterprises' profit per ton of coke narrowed, and the coke enterprises' production remained at a high level. The coke enterprises' inventory of coking coal continued to increase but remained at a low level, and the procurement enthusiasm for high - quality coal was high. The overall replenishment of coking and steel enterprises was mainly based on demand [5] Comprehensive - Last week, the supply and demand of coking coal both increased slightly. The coking coal 2509 contract fluctuated, and the support at the 10 - day moving average was strong [5] Group 4: Fundamental Analysis - Coke Supply - The capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 73.01%, a month - on - month increase of 0.14%. The daily average output was 64.21 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.13 tons. The profit per ton of coke of 30 sample coking enterprises was - 43 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 20 yuan/ton. Some coking enterprises still limited production, and the inventory of coking enterprises continued to decline. The coke spot price in ports fluctuated strongly, and the inventory decreased slightly [7] Demand - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.46%, a month - on - month increase of 0.31%; the daily average pig iron output was 242.44 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.63 tons. The profit rate of steel mills was 60.17%, a month - on - month increase of 0.43. The demand for coke remained rigid, and the replenishment demand of steel mills was good. Intermediate traders actively entered the market to purchase [7] Comprehensive - Last week, the supply and demand of coke both increased slightly. After the emotional boost, the market will return to fundamentals, and attention should be paid to the risks brought by the callback of spot prices. The coking coal ratio was 1.66 on average last week, and it is currently at a high level in the same period of history. Attention should be paid to the range change of 1.5 - 1.8 [8] Group 5: Inventory Data Coking Coal - Port inventory was 321.50 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.14 tons; all - sample independent coking plant inventory was 929.11 tons, a week - on - week increase of 36.76 tons; 247 sample steel mill inventory was 791.10 tons, a week - on - week increase of 8.17 tons; the total inventory was 2041.71 tons, a week - on - week increase of 44.79 tons [9] Coke - Port inventory was 199.11 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.97 tons; all - sample independent coking plant inventory was 87.55 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.53 tons; 247 sample steel mill inventory was 638.99 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.19 tons; the total inventory was 925.65 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.31 tons [9]
量能增加,稳步向上
Cai Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-14 05:36
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since June, the market has gradually changed from a stock market to an incremental market, and the index is likely to continue to rise [4][5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Last week, the four stock index futures varieties showed a general upward trend, with CSI 500 and CSI 1000 performing relatively strongly. The basis of the four stock index futures varieties remained in the futures discount mode. The basis of the main contracts of stock index futures, IH closed at -5.17, IF at -21.41, IC at -4.08, and IM at -141.3 [3] - The A-share market continued to break through and rise last week. Although there was a phenomenon of rising and then falling back on Friday, the trading volume remained at a relatively high level. Most industries achieved growth, and the financial sector contributed significantly to the market's rise, showing signs of accelerated capital inflow [3] Comprehensive Analysis - Looking ahead to next week, the market has changed from a stock market to an incremental market since June, but some sectors have entered a high-level shock stage. The manufacturing sector at a low level is expected to be promoted by incremental funds [4] - The policy level attaches more importance to market stability, the market expectation is less sensitive to the impact of the trade war, and the focus on industry prosperity during the interim report season has increased. The trading volume remains at a high level, the scope of industry rise has expanded, and the index is likely to break through the previous high [5]
生猪、玉米周报:生猪上涨动力不足,玉米盘面破位下行-20250714
Cai Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-14 05:33
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The upward momentum of the live hog market is insufficient, and the corn futures price has broken through the support level and declined. The live hog price is expected to remain volatile in the short - term, while the corn price will experience a high - level correction and the futures price will continue to seek support downward [3][5][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Live Hogs - Futures: Last week, the live hog futures fluctuated within a range. The LH2509 contract closed at 14,345 yuan/ton, up 0.03% from the previous week's settlement price [5] - Spot: The national average price of external ternary live hogs was 14.92 yuan/kg, down 0.37 yuan/kg week - on - week. As of July 11, the self - breeding and self - raising live hog farming profit was 133.87 yuan/head, up 14.15 yuan/head week - on - week; the profit of purchasing piglets for fattening was 31.6 yuan/head, up 57.86 yuan/head week - on - week; the pig - grain ratio was 6.28, up 0.05 week - on - week [5] - Market situation: The national live hog spot market showed a pattern of stability in the north and decline in the south last week, with prices rising first and then falling. Currently, local rainfall affects live hog transportation and some second - fattening is still entering the market, but as farms gradually resume normal slaughter in the middle of the month and terminal demand is insufficient in high - temperature weather, the market lacks substantial positive factors. The short - term supply - demand game will continue, and the live hog price is expected to remain volatile [5] Corn - Futures: Last week, the corn futures broke through the support level and declined. The C2509 contract closed at 2,306 yuan/ton, down 2.21% from the previous week's settlement price [6] - Spot: The national average spot price of corn was 2,421.57 yuan/ton, down 14.7 yuan/ton week - on - week. Port prices also declined [6] - Industrial consumption: From July 3 to July 9, 2025, 149 major corn deep - processing enterprises in the country consumed 1.1578 million tons of corn, down 18,500 tons from the previous week. The processing volume of corn starch enterprises was 536,700 tons, down 8,000 tons from the previous week; the national corn starch output was 259,400 tons, down 5,500 tons from the previous week. The DDGS industry's operating rate was 42.96%, down 1.92% from the previous week; the weekly production of DDGS was 87,430 tons, down 4.27% from the previous week [7] - Inventory: As of July 9, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 4.436 million tons, an increase of 1.88%. As of July 11, the total corn inventory of the four northern ports was about 2.56 million tons, and the corn inventory in Guangdong ports was 890,000 tons [7] - Market situation: The national corn spot price fell from a high level last week. The auction of imported corn cooled down, and the grain - holding entities accelerated their shipments. The market's bullish sentiment weakened, and the enterprise purchase price was stable to weak. The deep - processing profit continued to be in the red, the downstream industry's operating rate remained low, and the wheat substitution effect continued, resulting in a decline in corn's feed demand. In the short term, the corn price will correct from a high level, and the futures price will continue to seek support downward [8][9]