2025/8/8 10:46 【国富期货早间看点】USDA美⾖当周出⼝净增101.29万吨⾼于预期 Anec巴西⼤⾖8⽉出⼝料为815万吨 20250808 | 期货 | 现货 | 现货价格 | 基差 | 基差隔日变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | DCE棕榈油2509 | 华北 | 9060 | 120 | 0 | | | 华东 | 8920 | -20 | -40 | | | 华南 | 8920 | -20 | 0 | | DCE豆油2509 | 山东 | 8500 | 110 | 90 | | | 江苏 | 8670 | 280 | 0 | | | 广东 | 8570 | 180 | -20 | | | 天津 | 8530 | 140 | 20 | | DCE豆粕2509 | 山东 | 2890 | -127 | 5 | | | 江苏 | 2910 | -107 | 5 | | | 广东 | 2910 | -107 | 5 | | | 天津 | 2970 | -47 | -5 | | | 地区 | CNF升贴水 (美分/蒲式耳) | CNF升贴水变化 | CNF ...

2025/8/7 10:12 【国富期货早间看点】MPOA⻢棕7⽉产量预计增加9.01% Secex巴西7⽉⼤⾖出⼝1225.73万吨 20250807 【国富期货早间看点】MPOA马棕7月产量预计增加9.01% Secex巴 西7月大豆出口1225.73万吨 20250807 国富研究 国富研究 2025年08月07日 07:42 上海 01 隔夜行情 | | 收盘价 | 上日 流跌幅(%) | 隔夜流跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 马棕油10(BMD) | 4257.00 | -0. 54 | -0. 23 | | 布伦特10(ICE) | 66.96 | -1.06 | -2. 12 | | 美原油09(NYMEX) | 64. 27 | -1.38 | -2.56 | | 美豆11(CBOT) | 985. 25 | -0. 53 | -0. 28 | | 美豆箱12(CBOT) | 281. 10 | -1. 30 | -0. 50 | | 美豆油12(CBOT) | 53. 61 | 0. 43 | -0. 32 | | | 最新价 | 流跌幅(%) 十日盗 ...

2025/8/6 09:58 【国富期货早间看点】⻢来2024年棕榈油重植率为2%低于⽬标 Safras巴西24/25年⼤⾖已销售78.4% 20250806 【国富期货早间看点】马来2024年棕榈油重植率为2%低于目标 Safras巴西24/25年大豆已销售78.4% 20250806 国富研究 国富研究 2025年08月06日 07:32 上海 01 隔夜行情 02 现货行情 | 期货 | 现货 | 现货价格 | 基差 | 基差隔日变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | DCE棕榈油2509 | 华北 | 9090 | 120 | 0 | | | 华东 | 8970 | 0 | 0 | | | 华南 | 8950 | -20 | 0 | | DCE豆油2509 | 山东 | 8400 | 78 | -2 | | | 江苏 | 8610 | 288 | -2 | | | 广东 | 8560 | 238 | -2 | | | 天津 | 8470 | 148 | 28 | | DCE豆粕2509 | 山东 | 2890 | -136 | -18 | | | 江苏 | 291 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints The report provides a comprehensive overview of the futures market, including overnight and spot prices, important fundamental information on weather, international and domestic supply - demand, macro news, fund flows, and arbitrage tracking for commodities such as palm oil, soybeans, and related products. Specific Summaries by Section Overnight Quotes - The closing price of BMD Malaysian palm oil 10 was 4,218.00, with a previous - day decline of 1.39% and an overnight decline of 0.76% [1]. - Brent 10 (ICE) closed at 68.68, with a previous - day decline of 1.21% and an overnight decline of 0.85% [1]. - NYMEX US crude oil 09 closed at 66.24, with a previous - day decline of 1.52% and an overnight decline of 0.94% [1]. - CBOT US soybeans 11 closed at 994.50, with a previous - day increase of 0.66% and an overnight decline of 0.13% [1]. Spot Quotes - For DCE palm oil 2509, the spot price in North China was 8,920, with a basis of 120 and no change in basis from the previous day [2]. - For DCE soybean oil 2509, the spot price in Shandong was 8,330, with a basis of 80 and a basis decline of 2 from the previous day [2]. - For DCE soybean meal 2509, the spot price in Shandong was 2,900, with a basis of - 118 and a basis decline of 9 from the previous day [2]. Important Fundamental Information Weather in Production Areas - US soybean - producing states are expected to have above - normal temperature and precipitation from August 9 - 13 [4]. - The Midwest planting belt in the US will be mostly dry this week, with soil moisture remaining good. A front has passed, bringing cooler temperatures [6]. International Supply - Demand - Reuters survey shows that Malaysia's palm oil inventory in July 2025 is expected to be 2.25 million tons, an increase of 10.8% from June [8]. - As of June 30, 2025, 89.6% (5.03 million hectares) of Malaysia's oil palm plantations had MSPO certification [8]. - The US soybean good - to - excellent rate as of August 3, 2025, was 69%, in line with market expectations [10]. Domestic Supply - Demand - On August 4, 2025, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was 33,150 tons, a 25% decrease from the previous trading day [14]. - As of August 1, 2025, the total commercial inventory of three major oils in key regions in China was 2.3611 million tons, a 0.03% decrease from the previous week [14]. Macro News International News - The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 5.6%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 94.4% [17]. - The US factory orders in June decreased by 4.8% month - on - month, in line with expectations [17]. Domestic News - On August 4, 2025, the central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was 7.1395, up 101 points (appreciation of the RMB) [19]. - On August 4, 2025, the central bank conducted 544.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 49 billion yuan [19]. Fund Flows On August 4, 2025, the futures market had a net inflow of 778 million yuan, with a net inflow of 2.6 billion yuan in commodity futures and a net outflow of 1.822 billion yuan in stock index futures [21]. Arbitrage Tracking No specific content provided.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents a comprehensive overview of the futures market on August 4, 2025, covering overnight and spot market quotes, important fundamental information, macro - economic news, capital flows, and arbitrage tracking. It focuses on the performance of various commodities such as palm oil, soybeans, and crude oil, as well as international and domestic economic indicators. 3. Summary by Directory Overnight Quotes - The closing price of BMD Malaysian palm oil in October was 4,245.00, with a previous day's increase of 0.35%. Brent crude oil in October on ICE was at 69.52, a decrease of 3.15% the previous day and 0.20% overnight. NYMEX US crude oil in September was at 67.26, down 3.03% the previous day and 0.06% overnight [1]. - The US dollar index was at 98.67, a decrease of 1.32%. The exchange rates of various currencies against the US dollar showed different trends, with the Malaysian ringgit, Indonesian rupiah, Brazilian real, and Singapore dollar appreciating, while the Argentine peso depreciated [1]. Spot Quotes - For DCE palm oil 2509, the spot prices in North China, East China, and South China were 9,040, 8,910, and 8,900 respectively, with corresponding basis values of 120, - 10, and - 20, and basis changes of - 10, - 40, and 0 [2]. - For DCE soybean oil 2509, the spot prices in Shandong, Jiangsu, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 8,300, 8,520, 8,460, and 8,390 respectively, with basis values and changes varying by region [2]. - For DCE soybean meal 2509, the spot prices in Shandong, Jiangsu, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 2,890, 2,890, 2,870, and 2,970 respectively, with corresponding basis values and changes [2]. - The CNF quotes for imported soybeans from Brazil and Argentina were 474 and 452 dollars per ton respectively, with CNF premiums of 300 and 240 cents per bushel [2]. Important Fundamental Information - **Weather in Production Areas**: US soybean - producing states are expected to have above - average temperatures from August 6 - 10, with more precipitation in the northwest and northeast. The weather in the US Midwest is currently favorable for corn and soybean growth, with occasional rainfall and temperature fluctuations [3][5]. - **International Supply and Demand**: In July 2025, Malaysian palm oil production increased by 7.07% according to SPPOMA. Indonesia exported 2.07 million tons of crude palm oil and its products in June. There were also changes in the positions of various agricultural products futures, US soybean crushing volume, Canadian rapeseed exports, and Nigeria's plan to double soybean planting area by 2027 [9][10][11]. - **Domestic Supply and Demand**: On August 1, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil increased by 31% compared to the previous day. There were also changes in the trading volume and开机 rate of soybean meal, soybean crushing volume, Brazilian soybean shipping plans to China, pig - breeding profits, and agricultural product wholesale prices [14][15]. Macro - economic News - **International News**: US economic data in July showed mixed results, with lower - than - expected non - farm payrolls, slightly higher unemployment rate, and inflation expectations. The ISM and S&P Global manufacturing PMIs also had different performances. There were discussions about OPEC+ production increases [18][20]. - **Domestic News**: On August 1, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was adjusted upwards. The Chinese central bank carried out reverse - repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of funds on the day and a net injection for the week. Newly - issued government bond interest income will be subject to VAT starting from August 8 [22]. Capital Flows - On August 1, 2025, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 9.63 billion yuan, with 1.091 billion yuan from commodity futures (697 million yuan inflow in agricultural product futures, 140 million yuan inflow in chemical futures, 1.293 billion yuan outflow in black - series futures, and 635 million yuan outflow in metal futures) and 8.539 billion yuan from stock - index futures [25]. - The capital flows of major futures varieties varied, with inflows in some commodities like soybean oil and gold, and outflows in others such as crude oil and copper [24]. Arbitrage Tracking No relevant information provided.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information regarding the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a comprehensive overview of the overnight and spot market conditions for various commodities, including palm oil, soybeans, and crude oil. It also presents important fundamental information on factors such as weather conditions, international and domestic supply - demand dynamics, and macroeconomic news. Additionally, it details the capital flow in the futures market and conducts arbitrage tracking [1][2][24]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overnight Market Conditions - **Futures**: The closing prices and price changes of various futures contracts, such as BMD's October palm oil, ICE's October Brent crude, and NYMEX's September US crude oil, are presented. For example, BMD's October palm oil closed at 4259.00, with a previous - day increase of 0.54% and an overnight decrease of 0.42% [1]. - **Currencies**: The latest prices and price changes of multiple currencies, including the US dollar index, CNY/USD, MYR/USD, etc., are provided. For instance, the US dollar index was at 99.94, with an increase of 1.05% [1]. 3.2 Spot Market Conditions - **Futures - Spot**: The spot prices, basis, and basis changes of various futures contracts, such as DCE's 2509 palm oil, 2509 soybean oil, and 2509 soybean meal, are given. For example, the spot price of DCE's 2509 palm oil in North China is 9110, with a basis of 130 and a basis change of 0 [2]. 3.3 Important Fundamental Information 3.3.1 Weather Conditions in Producing Areas - **US Soybean Producing States**: The future weather outlook from August 4th to 8th shows that the temperature in the main soybean - producing states is high, and the precipitation in the northwest is higher than the average. The temperature in the Midwest planting belt is expected to drop, and the growth conditions are still relatively favorable [5][7]. 3.3.2 International Supply - Demand - **Malaysian Palm Oil**: From January to May 2025, Malaysia's palm oil exports to the US increased by 51.8% year - on - year, from 6.1 million tons in the same period last year to 9.3 million tons [9]. - **US Soybean Exports**: As of the week ending July 24th, US soybean export sales are expected to increase by 20 - 90 million tons, with 10 - 30 million tons for the 2024/25 season and 10 - 60 million tons for the 2025/26 season [10]. - **Argentine Soybean Sales**: As of July 23rd, Argentine farmers sold 78.77 million tons of 24/25 season soybeans, with a cumulative sales volume of 2743.16 million tons, and 4.3 million tons of 25/26 season soybeans, with a cumulative sales volume of 48.95 million tons [11]. - **Ukrainian Rapeseed**: As of July 25th, Ukrainian farmers have harvested about 100 million tons of rapeseed, lower than 330 million tons in the same period last year. The market has revised down the 2025 rapeseed production forecast to 240 - 250 million tons [12]. - **Baltic Dry Index**: On Wednesday, the Baltic Dry Index fell for the fourth consecutive day, reaching a two - week low, due to a decline in demand for all ship types [13]. 3.3.3 Domestic Supply - Demand - **Oil Product Transactions**: On July 30th, the total transaction volume of soybean oil and palm oil was 102,566 tons, a 108% increase from the previous trading day. The total transaction volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was 30.49 million tons, a decrease of 13.05 million tons from the previous day [14]. - **Agricultural Product Prices**: The average weekly price of lean - type white - striped pork in 16 provinces (municipalities) from July 21st to July 25th, 2025, was 18.73 yuan per kilogram, a 2.2% week - on - week decrease and a 25.7% year - on - year decrease [14]. 3.4 Macroeconomic News 3.4.1 International News - **US Economic Data**: The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 54.3%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 45.7%. US economic data such as ADP employment, GDP, and PCE price index are also presented [17]. - **FOMC Statement**: The Fed maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.25% - 4.50%, with two governors advocating for a rate cut [18]. - **Eurozone Economic Data**: The Eurozone's second - quarter GDP annual rate is 1.4%, and the industrial and economic sentiment indices in July are - 10.4 and 95.8 respectively [19]. 3.4.2 Domestic News - **Exchange Rate and Monetary Policy**: On July 30th, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was 7.1441, down 70 points. The central bank conducted 309 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 158.5 billion yuan [21]. - **Housing Loan Interest Rate**: In the second quarter of 2025, the weighted average interest rate of newly issued commercial personal housing loans in China was 3.09% [21]. 3.5 Capital Flow On July 30th, 2025, the net inflow of funds in the futures market was 18.187 billion yuan, with 6.098 billion yuan in commodity futures (including 205 million yuan in agricultural product futures, 5.324 billion yuan in chemical futures, 131 million yuan in black - series futures, and 439 million yuan in metal futures) and 12.089 billion yuan in stock index futures [24]. 3.6 Arbitrage Tracking There is no detailed information on arbitrage tracking in the provided content.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report about the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints The report comprehensively presents the overnight and spot market conditions of various commodities including palm oil, soybean, and related products, along with important fundamental information such as weather in the US, international and domestic supply - demand situations, macro - economic news, and capital flows in the market [1][2][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Market Conditions - **Futures**: The closing prices and daily and overnight price changes of commodities like Malaysian palm oil, Brent crude oil, and US soybean futures are presented. For example, the closing price of Malaysian palm oil 10 (BMD) is 4283.00, with a daily increase of 0.35% and an overnight increase of 0.68% [1]. - **Currencies**: The latest prices and price changes of the US dollar index and multiple currencies against the US dollar are provided, such as the US dollar index at 98.90, up 0.25% [1]. Spot Market Conditions - **Futures and Spot**: The spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE palm oil 2509, DCE soybean oil 2509, and DCE soybean meal 2509 in different regions are given. For instance, the spot price of DCE palm oil 2509 in North China is 9050, with a basis of 130 and no change in basis from the previous day [2]. - **Imported Soybean Quotes**: The CNF premiums and CNF quotes of imported soybeans from different regions are shown, like the CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans is 266 cents per bushel, and the CNF quote is 469 dollars per ton [4]. Important Fundamental Information - **Weather in Production Areas**: The future weather outlook of US soybean - producing states from August 3rd to 7th shows that the temperature is close to the average and precipitation is mostly above the median. The Midwest planting belt has rising temperatures and relatively high soil moisture [5][7]. - **International Supply - Demand**: The EU and Indonesia reached an agreement on palm oil trade, with the EU allowing zero - tariff imports of a certain quota of Indonesian palm oil. Indonesia is expected to export over 500 tons of palm oil to India in 2025. Brazil's July soybean and soybean meal export forecasts are lower than the previous week. EU's 2025/26 imports of palm oil, soybean, soybean meal, and rapeseed are all lower than the same period last year. Canada's June rapeseed crushing volume increased by 3.0% month - on - month [9][10][11]. - **Domestic Supply - Demand**: On July 29th, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil increased by 152% compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills increased significantly, and the operating rate of oil mills rose. The national soybean oil port inventory increased by 2.8 tons compared to the previous week [14]. Macroeconomic News - **International News**: The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 97.4%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 2.6%. The US consumer confidence index in July is 97.2, higher than the expected value [15]. - **Domestic News**: On July 29th, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was reported at 7.1511, up 44 points. The Chinese central bank conducted 4492 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, achieving a net investment of 2344 billion yuan [18]. Capital Flows On July 29th, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 38.56 billion yuan. Commodity futures had a net capital outflow of 0.57 billion yuan, including an outflow of 9.38 billion yuan from agricultural product futures and 8.29 billion yuan from chemical futures, while black - series futures had a net capital inflow of 33.2 billion yuan. Index futures had a net capital outflow of 38 billion yuan [21].

2025/7/29 09:59 【国富期货早间看点】SPPOMA⻢棕7⽉前25⽇产量增加5.52% USDA美⾖优良率为70%⾼于市场预期 20250729 【国富期货早间看点】SPPOMA马棕7月前25日产量增加5.52% USDA美豆优良率为70%高于市场预期 20250729 国富研究 国富研究 2025年07月29日 07:33 上海 01 隔夜行情 | | 收盘价 | 上日涨跌幅(%) | 隔夜涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 马棕油10(BMD) | 4242. 00 | -0. 87 | 0. 07 | | 布伦特10(ICE) | 69. 60 | 2.96 | 0. 81 | | 美原油09(NYMEX) | 66. 98 | 2.94 | 0. 74 | | 美豆11(CBOT) | 1011. 50 | -1.00 | -0. 27 | | 美豆箱12(CBOT) | 279. 40 | -0. 82 | -0. 18 | | 美豆油12(CBOT) | 55. 97 | 0. 09 | -0. 41 | | | 最新价 | 涨跌幅(%) 十日涨跌 ...

Report Title - The report is titled "Guofu Palm Oil Research Weekly: Supply Increase and Demand Decrease in Origin, Palm Oil Prices Oscillate and Decline" [1] Core View - The palm oil market is characterized by an increase in supply and a decrease in demand in the origin, leading to an oscillating and declining price trend [1] Section Summaries 1.行情回顾 (Market Review) - This section likely covers the performance of BMD Malaysian palm oil and DCE palm oil, but specific details are not provided in the given content 2.产区天气 (Weather in Producing Areas) - It focuses on the weather conditions in palm oil - producing areas, yet no specific information is available 3.国际供需 (International Supply and Demand) 3.1 GAPKI 5 - month report - No content related to this report is provided 3.2 Indian SEA 6 - month report - No content related to this report is provided 3.3 Malaysian palm oil July forecast - **Export data**: According to AmSpec on July 25, 2025, Malaysian palm oil exports were 896,484 tons, a 15.22% month - on - month decrease and a 23.59% year - on - year decrease. Exports of different types of palm oil also declined. For example, 24 - degree palm oil exports decreased by 30.02% month - on - month and 55.52% year - on - year [25]. According to SGS on July 20, 2025, Malaysian palm oil exports were 486,404 tons, a 35.99% month - on - month decrease and a 50.29% year - on - year decrease [26] - **Production data**: According to SPPOMA on July 20, 2025, the production increased by 16.19% compared to July 15, 2025. FFB yield increased by 7.03%. According to MPOA on July 20, 2025, Malaysian palm oil production increased by 11.24% compared to the previous month [27][28] 3.4 Other important information - No additional significant information is provided 4.国内供需 (Domestic Supply and Demand) 4.1 Import profit - No content related to import profit is provided 4.2 Palm oil transactions - No content related to palm oil transactions is provided 4.3 Palm oil inventory - No content related to palm oil inventory is provided 5.国内外油脂期现价格、价差情况 (Domestic and International Futures and Spot Prices and Price Differences of Oils and Fats) 5.1 Basis, monthly spread, and variety spread - No content related to basis, monthly spread, and variety spread is provided 5.2 Palm oil warehouse receipts and futures positions - No content related to palm oil warehouse receipts and futures positions is provided 5.3 FOB quotes - No content related to FOB quotes is provided

Group 1: Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Guofu Palm Oil Research Weekly Report: Biodiesel News Disturbs, Palm Oil Prices Rise" and is dated July 21, 2025 [1] Group 2: Report Outline - The report includes sections on market review (BMD and DGE palm oil),产区天气 (palm oil producing area weather), international supply - demand (Malaysian palm oil July forecast and other important news), domestic supply - demand (China's June palm oil imports, import profit, palm oil transactions, and palm oil inventory), and domestic and international palm oil futures - spot prices and spreads [4] Group 3: International Supply - Demand (Malaysian Palm Oil Export Forecast) AmSpec Data - Malaysian palm oil exports on July 15, 2025 were 574,121, a - 5.29% change from the previous month and a - 27.42% change from the same period last year. Among them, crude palm oil exports were 159,392, a 2.23% increase from the previous month and a - 33.11% decrease from last year; 24 - degree palm oil exports were 87,042, a - 22.77% change from the previous month and a - 53.10% change from last year [17] SGS Data - Malaysian palm oil exports on July 15, 2025 were 399,366, a - 22.18% change from the previous month and a - 49.24% change from the same period last year. Exports to China were 22,074, a - 59.27% change from the previous month and a - 69.88% change from last year; exports to the US were 33,750, a - 18.76% change from the previous month and a 170.00% change from last year; exports to India were 49,800, a - 15.99% change from the previous month and a - 58.46% change from last year [18]