1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of BMD Malaysian palm oil and DCE palm oil both rose this week. However, the expected decline in Malaysian palm oil exports and inventory accumulation in November may put pressure on prices. Attention should be paid to the MPOB report data and changes in import demand in major consuming regions such as India [8][12]. - The rainfall in most palm oil - producing areas is expected to be normal or above normal in the coming week, which may have an impact on palm oil production [16][22]. - Malaysian palm oil inventory in November may rise to a six - and - a - half - year high, which may put pressure on the Malaysian palm oil futures price [31]. - Indian palm oil imports may increase in December due to price advantages [32]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Review - **BMD Malaysian Palm Oil**: As of the close on December 5th, the BMD Malaysian palm oil 02 contract closed at 4,152 ringgit/ton, up 0.92% from last week. The price increase was driven by expectations of a decline in November production, an expected increase in Indian imports in November, and rising international crude oil prices. However, expected weak export demand and inventory accumulation in November may drag down prices. SPPOMA and MPOA data show that November production is expected to decline by 0.19% and 4.38% respectively, and three major institutions' high - frequency data suggest that November exports may decrease by 15.89% - 39.21% [8]. - **DCE Palm Oil**: As of the close on December 5th, the DCE palm oil 01 contract closed at 8,770 yuan/ton, up 1.67% from last week. Although the price rose, the expected sharp decline in Malaysian palm oil exports and inventory accumulation in November may suppress the price. The inversion of the palm oil import profit margin has been repaired. Recently, domestic palm oil inventory has slightly decreased, downstream transactions have been light, and the spot basis has fluctuated [12]. 3.2 Producing Area Weather - **Malaysian Producing Area Weather**: From November 29th to December 5th, except for some areas in western and eastern Sarawak where precipitation was 15 - 25mm higher than normal, precipitation in other areas was at or below normal levels by 15 - 100mm. From December 6th to December 12th, except for some areas in northern and southeastern Peninsular Malaysia and northeastern Sabah where precipitation is expected to be 15 - 50mm below normal, precipitation in other areas is expected to be at or above normal levels by 15 - 50mm [14][16]. - **Indonesian Producing Area Weather**: From November 29th to December 5th, except for some areas in northern and central - western Sumatra and northern and southern Kalimantan where precipitation was 15 - 75mm below normal, precipitation in other areas was at or above normal levels by 15 - 75mm. From December 6th to December 12th, except for some areas in northern Sumatra and southern Kalimantan where precipitation is expected to be 15 - 25mm below normal, precipitation in other areas is expected to be at or above normal levels by 15 - 100mm [20][22]. 3.3 International Supply and Demand - **Malaysian Palm Oil November Forecast** - **Export Forecast**: AmSpec data shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports from November 1st to 30th were 1,263,298 tons, a 15.89% decrease from the same period last month. ITS data shows exports of 1,316,455 tons, a 19.7% decrease. SGS data predicts exports of 779,392 tons, a 39.21% decrease [24]. - **Production Forecast**: SPPOMA data shows that from November 1st to 30th, Malaysian palm oil yield per unit decreased by 2.09% month - on - month, oil extraction rate increased by 0.36% month - on - month, and production decreased by 0.19% month - on - month. MPOA data shows that November production is estimated to decrease by 4.38%, with a 5% decrease in Peninsular Malaysia, 3.75% in Sabah, and 3.3% in Sarawak [27]. - **Other Important Information**: Indian refiners cancelled about 70,000 tons of soybean oil orders due to rising global prices and a depreciating rupee. In November, Malaysian palm oil inventory may rise to a six - and - a - half - year high. Indian palm oil imports in November increased slightly, and are expected to further increase in December [30][31][32]. 3.4 Domestic Supply and Demand - **Import Profit**: The inversion of the palm oil import profit margin on the futures market has been repaired this week [33]. - **Palm Oil Transactions**: Palm oil trading volume declined significantly this week. As of the week of December 5th, the total weekly trading volume (spot + basis trading) was 700 tons, a decrease of 7,900 tons or 92% from last week [36]. - **Palm Oil Inventory**: As of November 28th (week 48), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key domestic regions was 653,500 tons, a 2.04% decrease from last week and a 35.38% increase from the same period last year [38][39]. 3.5 Domestic and International Oil Futures and Spot Prices, and Spread Situations - **Basis, Monthly Spread, and Variety Spread Situations** - **Palm Oil Basis and Monthly Spread**: The report provides charts of the basis of 24 - degree palm oil in Shandong, Tianjin, Jiangsu, and Guangzhou against the 01 contract, as well as the 1 - 5 spread of palm oil [42][46]. - **Variety Spread and POGO Spread**: The report presents charts of international soybean - palm oil spread, POGO spread, international rapeseed - palm oil spread, international sunflower - palm oil spread, domestic rapeseed - palm oil futures spread, and domestic soybean - palm oil futures spread [48][51]. - **Palm Oil Warehouse Receipt Quantity and Futures Open Interest**: The report provides charts of DCE palm oil warehouse receipt quantity and the open interest of the DCE palm oil 01 contract [53]. - **FOB Quotations**: The report provides charts of the FOB quotations of 24 - degree palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia [57].

【国富豆系研究周报】美豆出口需求依旧疲软，CBOT 大豆价格下 跌 20251208 国富研究 国富研究 2025年12月8日 07:21 上海 标题已修改 油脂油料周度行情 目录 | 一、行情回顾 | | --- | | 1. 大豆 | | 2. 豆粕 | | 3. 豆油 | | 二、产区天气 | | 1. 巴西大豆产区天气 7 | | 2. 阿根廷大豆产区天气 8 | | 国际供需 10 = ( | | 1. 美国大豆 10 | | 2. 巴西大豆 | | 3. 阿根廷大豆 18 | | 四、 国内供需 21 | | 1. 豆油供需 21 | | 2. 豆粕供需 | | 五、 国内外油脂期现价格、价差情况 | | 1. 基差、月差、品种差情况 . | | 2. FOB 报价 | | 3. CFTC 持仓情况 | 2 公众号 · 国富研究 油脂油料周度行情 一、 行情回顾 1. 大豆 图:CBOT美豆行情 图片来源:文华财经 外盘方面,截至12月5日收盘,CBOT 大豆 01 合约收于 1105.25 美分 /蒲式耳,较前一周下跌2.81%。本周 CBOT 大豆价格下跌,主要受美豆出 现需求表现依旧疲软以及 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report comprehensively presents the overnight and spot market conditions of various futures and commodities, including palm oil, soybeans, and their related products. It also details important fundamental information such as weather conditions in major crop - growing regions, production and export data, and CFTC持仓 reports. Additionally, macro - economic news both internationally and domestically, as well as capital flows in the futures market, are covered. 3. Summary by Directory Overnight Market - The closing prices and daily/overnight percentage changes of various futures are presented, including BMD palm oil, ICE Brent, NYMEX WTI, CBOT soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil [1]. - The latest prices and percentage changes of major currency pairs are provided, including the US Dollar Index, CNY/USD, MYR/USD, etc. [1]. Spot Market - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE palm oil, soybean oil, and soybean meal in different regions are given. Also, CNF quotes and CNF premium/discounts for imported soybeans from different origins are presented [2]. Important Fundamental Information 产区Weather - A cold front will bring scattered showers to central Brazil, and there will be another round of rainfall on Monday and Tuesday this week. In southern Brazil, soil moisture is favorable but the rainfall frequency has decreased [5]. - Argentina's soybean - growing areas are generally dry, but soil moisture remains favorable in most regions. Long - term dry weather will be interspersed with heavy rain [5]. - In the next 15 days, heavy rain is expected in Brazil's crop - growing belt, which may disrupt early soybean sowing. Argentina's Pampas region will have less rainfall than normal, but good soil moisture will support soybean growth [6]. Production and Export Data - MPOA estimates that Malaysia's palm oil production in November decreased by 4.38%, with different decreases in different regions [7]. - ITS reports that Malaysia's palm oil exports from December 1 - 5 decreased by 20.25% compared to the same period last month [7]. - Global palm oil exports showed strong recovery in 2025. Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand exported 36.4 million tons in the first 10 months, 1.4 million tons more than in 2024. China increased imports while India decreased [8]. CFTC持仓 Report As of the week ending October 28, CBOT soybean long positions increased by 45,520 to 242,178, and short positions decreased by 34,057 to 84,985, etc. [9]. USDA Reports and Pre - reports - Analysts expect the USDA's December report to show that US soybean ending stocks in 2025/26 will be 302 million bushels, and global soybean ending stocks will be 122.41 million tons [9]. - Analysts expect Argentina's soybean production in 2025/26 to be 48.57 million tons and Brazil's to be 175.35 million tons [10]. - In the 2026/27 season, US farmers are expected to reduce corn and wheat planting and increase soybean planting. The estimated ending stocks of corn are 2.019 billion bushels and of soybeans are 314 million bushels [10]. - USDA's private exporters reported a sale of 462,000 tons of soybeans to China for the 2025/2026 season [10]. - Analysts expect US soybean export sales from November 6 to net increase by 450,000 - 1,600,000 tons in the 2025/26 season, etc. [11]. Other Information - As of the week ending November 29, the number of barges going downstream in the US decreased by 38.6%, and the number of barges unloading in New Orleans increased by 46.3% [12]. - In Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, due to reduced rainfall in mid - November, the soybean sowing progress was 74% as of last Thursday, lower than the historical average [12]. - As of December 4, Argentina's soybean planting rate in the 2025/26 season was 49%, up from 39% last week but lower than 54% last year [12]. - Canada's rapeseed exports increased by 59.8% to 159,000 tons in the week ending November 30, and the commercial inventory was 132,390 tons [12]. - In 2025, Ukraine's sunflower seed production declined significantly, and domestic rapeseed and soybean processing may exceed exports. Rapeseed processing may reach a record 1.4 million tons, and soybean processing is expected to increase to 3 million tons [13]. - The Baltic Dry Index decreased by 3.1% on Friday but increased by 6.5% for the week, reaching a two - and - a - half - year high [14]. Domestic Supply and Demand - On December 5, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was 16,500 tons, a 31% decrease from the previous day [16]. - On December 5, the trading volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was 171,200 tons, an increase of 85,700 tons from the previous day. The overall oil mill operating rate was 56.85%, up 0.89% [16]. - From November 29 to December 5, domestic oil mills' actual soybean crushing volume was 2.0558 million tons, a decrease of 145,000 tons from the previous week and 89,800 tons lower than the estimated volume. The actual operating rate was 56.55% [16]. - On December 5, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and the "Vegetable Basket Product Wholesale Price Index" increased. The average prices of some agricultural products such as pork, beef, etc., also changed [17]. Macro - economic News International News - The US core PCE price index in September was 2.8% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month [19]. - The US personal spending in September increased by 0.3% month - on - month [19]. - The US one - year inflation expectation in December was 4.1%, and the Michigan consumer confidence index was 53.3 [19]. - The Eurozone's Q3 GDP growth rate was 1.4% year - on - year, and the employment growth rate was 0.2% quarter - on - quarter [19]. Domestic News - On December 5, the USD/CNY exchange rate was 7.0749, up 16 points [21]. - On December 5, the People's Bank of China conducted 139.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 161.5 billion yuan. For the week, there was a net withdrawal of 848 billion yuan [21]. - China's foreign exchange reserves in November were 3.346372 trillion US dollars [21]. - China's central bank increased its gold reserves for the 13th consecutive month in November [21]. - In November, China's futures market trading volume was 770 million lots, and the trading volume was 66.61 trillion yuan, with year - on - year increases of 13.54% and 7.11% respectively [21]. Capital Flows On December 5, 2025, the futures market had a net capital inflow of 27.025 billion yuan. Commodity futures had a net inflow of 3.847 billion yuan, while agricultural product futures had a net outflow of 94 million yuan, etc. [25]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report comprehensively presents the overnight and spot market conditions of multiple commodities, including palm oil, soybean, and their products. It also details important fundamental information such as weather conditions in major production areas, export - sales reports, and domestic and international supply - demand situations, along with macro - economic news and capital flow data [1][2][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Market - The closing prices and daily/overnight percentage changes of various futures are presented, such as the closing price of BMD palm oil 02 being 4123.00, with a previous - day decline of 1.20% and an overnight increase of 0.41%. Also, exchange - rate data including the US Dollar Index and multiple currency pairs are provided [1] Spot Market - The spot prices, basis, and basis daily changes of DCE palm oil 2601, DCE soybean oil 2601, and DCE soybean meal 2601 in different regions are given. Additionally, CNF premiums and quotations for imported soybeans from different regions are presented [2] Important Fundamental Information Production Area Weather - A cold front will bring scattered showers to central Brazil, and soil moisture in the south is worthy of attention. Argentina's soybean - growing areas are dry, and rainfall may return this weekend or early next week. The probability of a weak La Niña event in the next three months is increasing, reaching 55% [5][6] International Trade and Supply - Demand - Indian refiners have canceled about 70,000 tons of soybean oil orders. As of October 30, the net increase in US soybean export sales was 1.2485 million tons, in line with expectations. Brazil's soybean exports in November were 4.197 million tons, a 64.40% increase year - on - year. Anec predicts that Brazil's soybean exports in December will be 2.81 million tons [7][8][9] Regional Production and Processing - In the EU, the processing volume of three major oilseeds decreased by 2% from July to September. Canada's rapeseed production increased by 13.3% to 21.8 million tons in 2025 [10][11] Shipping Freight - The Baltic Dry Index fell from a two - year high on Thursday, with various ship - type freight rates dropping [12] Domestic Supply - Demand - On December 4, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil increased by 7.7% compared to the previous day. The trading volume of soybean meal decreased, and the national average opening rate of oil mills increased. The "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and the "Vegetable Basket Product Wholesale Price Index" both rose [14] Macro - economic News International News - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 87%. The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending November 29 was 191,000, lower than expected [16] Domestic News - The US Dollar/RMB exchange rate was adjusted downwards on December 4. The central bank conducted 180.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 175.6 billion yuan. On December 5, the central bank will conduct 1 trillion yuan of 3 - month (91 - day) outright reverse repurchase operations [19] Capital Flow - On December 4, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 4.923 billion yuan, with commodity futures having a net inflow of 3.947 billion yuan, stock index futures having a net outflow of 8.568 billion yuan, and bond futures having a net outflow of 310 million yuan [22] Arbitrage Tracking - Not provided in the content

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The inventory of Malaysian palm oil in November may reach a six - and - a - half - year high, which may put pressure on the benchmark Malaysian palm oil futures [9]. - The weather conditions in South America have different impacts on the growth of soybeans, corn and other crops, and the future weather trends need to be continuously monitored [5][6][7]. - The trading volume of domestic oils and meals decreased on December 3, and the开机 rate of oil mills increased [16]. - The market has high expectations for the Fed's interest rate cut in December [18]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Overnight Market - The closing prices and daily/overnight percentage changes of various futures such as Malaysian palm oil, Brent crude oil, and US soybeans are presented. The US dollar index and exchange rates of multiple currencies also show corresponding changes [1]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot prices, basis, and basis daily changes of DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, and DCE soybean meal in different regions are provided, as well as the CNF premiums and quotes of imported soybeans from different origins [2]. 3.3 Important Fundamental Information 3.3.1 Production Area Weather - In southern Brazil, soil moisture is still favorable, but the decrease in rainfall frequency is worthy of attention. In northern Brazil, there is a lack of rainfall. In Argentina, the soybean - growing area will be dry this week and may receive rainfall this weekend or early next week. In the future, Argentina will be cool and dry in some areas, while Brazil will have wet weather overall but drought in the south [5][6][7]. 3.3.2 International Supply and Demand - Malaysian palm oil inventory in November is expected to reach 2.66 million tons, with a 7.78% month - on - month increase. Production is estimated at 1.98 million tons, a 3% decrease from the previous month. Exports are expected to drop 14.9% to 1.44 million tons. The annual production is expected to exceed 20 million tons for the first time [9]. - Argentina's 2025/26 soybean production is expected to be 46.9 million tons, with a sowing area of 16.7 million hectares. Ukrainian rapeseed production is expected to be stable at 3.4 million tons [12][13]. - The Baltic Dry Bulk Freight Index reached a two - year high on Wednesday due to the sharp rise in Capesize ship freight rates [14]. 3.3.3 Domestic Supply and Demand - On December 3, the total trading volume of domestic oils decreased by 17% compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume of soybean meal decreased, and the oil mill opening rate increased to 55.09%. The "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and the "Vegetable Basket Product Wholesale Price Index" both rose [16]. 3.4 Macroeconomic News 3.4.1 International News - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 89%. The US ADP employment in November decreased by 32,000 people, and the employment growth in the second half of 2025 stagnated [18]. - Multiple US economic data such as the MBA mortgage application activity index, service industry PMI, and industrial output are released, as well as euro - zone PPI and service industry PMI data [19]. 3.4.2 Domestic News - On December 3, the US dollar/renminbi exchange rate was 7.0754, with the renminbi appreciating by 40 points. The central bank conducted 79.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 134 billion yuan [20]. 3.5 Capital Flow - On December 3, 2025, the futures market had a net capital inflow of 15.076 billion yuan, including 291 million yuan in commodity futures, 14.126 billion yuan in stock index futures, and 694 million yuan in treasury bond futures [23]. 3.6 Arbitrage Tracking No relevant content provided.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report presents a comprehensive analysis of the agricultural commodity market, including the overnight and spot market conditions of various agricultural products, important fundamental information such as weather in major production areas, supply - demand dynamics at home and abroad, macro - economic news, and details on capital flows and arbitrage tracking. This provides a basis for understanding the current state and potential trends of the agricultural commodity market [1][2][12] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Overnight Market Conditions - The closing prices, previous - day and overnight percentage changes of various futures are given. For example, the closing price of BMD's February Malaysian palm oil futures was 4170.00, with a previous - day increase of 1.56% and an overnight increase of 0.31%. There are also details on the latest prices, percentage changes, and ten - day percentage changes of currency indices [1] Spot Market Conditions - For futures such as DCE's palm oil, soybean oil, and soybean meal in 2026, the spot prices, basis, and basis changes in different regions are provided. Additionally, CNF quotes and CNF premium changes for imported soybeans from different regions are presented [2] Important Fundamental Information Production Area Weather - In Brazil, the soil moisture in the southern part is suitable, but the decreasing rainfall frequency is causing a slow drying process. In Argentina, the soybean - growing conditions are uneven due to intermittent heavy rainfall and drought. Malaysia's flood risk is expected to subside, which is beneficial for palm oil production [5][6] International Trade and Supply - Demand - Malaysia's November palm oil exports decreased by 39.21% compared to the previous month. FGV and Felda may face production decline due to an order to evacuate plantations. Indonesia's palm oil exports from January to October 2025 increased by 7.83% compared to the same period in 2024. India's November palm oil imports increased by 4.6% to 630,000 tons, while soybean oil and sunflower oil imports decreased [7][8] Domestic Supply - Demand - On December 2, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil decreased by 45% compared to the previous day. The trading volume of soybean meal increased, and the national dynamic full - sample oil mill operating rate decreased by 2.90%. The national soybean oil port inventory increased by 1.2 million tons [14] Macro - Economic News International News - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 89.2%. The OECD predicts that the Fed will cut interest rates twice by the end of 2026. There are also data on API crude oil inventory in the US, CPI and unemployment rate in the Eurozone [16][17] Domestic News - On December 2, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was 7.0794, with the yuan depreciating. The central bank conducted 156.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 145.8 billion yuan. In November, the central bank's net investment in public treasury bond trading was 50 billion yuan [19] Capital Flows - On December 2, 2025, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 8.115 billion yuan. Commodity futures had a net outflow of 257 million yuan, while stock index futures had a net outflow of 7.923 billion yuan and treasury bond futures had a net inflow of 86 million yuan [22] Arbitrage Tracking - No relevant information provided

02 现货行情 【国富期货早间看点】SPPOMA马棕11月产量环比减0.19% USDA美豆当周出口检验920194吨符合预期 20251202 国富研究 国富研究 2025年12月2日 07:47 上海 01 隔夜行情 | | 收盘价 | 上日涨跌幅(%) | 隔夜涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 马棕油02(BMD) | 4064.00 | -0. 51 | -0. 71 | | 布伦特02(ICE) | 63. 33 | 1.62 | 0. 03 | | 美原油01(NYMEX) | 59.51 | 1.76 | 0.08 | | 美豆01(CBOT) | 1127.25 | -0. 88 | -0. 79 | | 美豆粕01(CBOT) | 314. 50 | -1.29 | -0.66 | | 美豆油01(CBOT) | 52. 32 | 0. 46 | 0. 10 | | | 最新价 | 涨跌幅(%) | 十日涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 美元指数 | 99. 40 | -0. 03 | | | 人民币(CNY/USD) ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The report presents a comprehensive overview of the agricultural and commodity markets, covering overnight and现货行情, important fundamental information, macro - economic news, fund flows, and arbitrage tracking. It shows the complex interplay of factors such as weather conditions, international and domestic supply - demand dynamics, and macro - economic policies affecting the prices and trading volumes of various agricultural products and commodities [1][2][5] Summary by Directory Overnight Quotes - The closing prices and percentage changes of various commodities such as Malaysian palm oil, Brent crude oil, US crude oil, US soybeans, US soybean meal, and US soybean oil are provided. Also, the latest prices and percentage changes of several currency exchange rates are given [1] Spot Quotes - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, and DCE soybean meal in different regions are presented. Import soybean quotes including CNF premiums and CNF prices from different origins are also provided [2] Important Fundamental Information Production Area Weather - In Brazil, the soil moisture decline in the south is expected to slow, and early December rainfall is likely to be below normal. In Argentina, the soybean - growing areas will turn dry after a front passed last weekend, and soil moisture decline will also slow due to lack of high - temperature weather [5] International Supply and Demand - Malaysia's palm oil exports in November are expected to decline by 19.7%. Indonesia will lower the reference price of crude palm oil in December, reducing the export tariff. Some Indonesian suppliers are delaying palm oil shipments to December. US soybean, soybean meal, and soybean oil export sales data show different trends. The use of US soybean oil for biofuel production increased in September. Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production is expected to reach a record high, but the overall yield potential in most areas may be lower than the previous year. The soybean planting progress in different regions of Brazil and Argentina is reported, along with the production forecasts of EU and Canada for various oilseeds. The Baltic Dry Bulk Freight Index reached a two - year high [7][8][11] Domestic Supply and Demand - On November 28, the trading volume of domestic edible oils increased, while the trading volume of soybean meal decreased. The actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills in the 48th week was lower than expected, and the expected crushing volume in the 49th week will decline slightly. The pig - raising profit is in a loss state. The "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and the "Vegetable Basket Product Wholesale Price Index" rose on November 28, and the prices of some agricultural products changed [17][18] Macro News International News - Foreign central banks increased their holdings of US Treasury bonds in the week ending November 26. Eurozone consumers slightly raised their short - term inflation expectations but kept long - term inflation expectations unchanged [21] Domestic News - On November 28, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was adjusted upwards. The Chinese central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations and achieved a net withdrawal of funds. The manufacturing PMI in November was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [22] Fund Flows - On November 28, 2025, the futures market had a net inflow of 2.755 billion yuan. Commodity futures had a net inflow of 6.287 billion yuan, while stock index futures and treasury bond futures had net outflows [25] Arbitrage Tracking - Not provided in the report content

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The price of palm oil has risen, and attention should be paid to the weather conditions in the producing areas, high - frequency data from palm oil producing areas, changes in import demand in major consumption areas such as India, and changes in biodiesel policies of relevant countries [8][9] - The increase in domestic palm oil inventory has dragged down the price trend of the DCE palm oil futures, and attention should be paid to domestic palm oil import purchases and changes in downstream demand [12] Summary According to the Directory I. Market Review 1. BMD Malaysian Palm Oil - As of November 28, the BMD Malaysian palm oil 02 contract closed at 4,114 ringgit/ton, up 1.13% from the previous week. The price increase was mainly due to concerns about production caused by floods in Southeast Asia, but weak export demand limited the increase [8] - SPPOMA and MPOA data showed that the production of Malaysian palm oil in the first 20 days of November was expected to increase month - on - month, but the increase estimated by MPOA was much lower than that estimated by SPPOMA. The increase in production in the first 25 days of November was significantly narrower than that in the first 20 days [8] - Three major institutions' high - frequency data predicted that the export volume of Malaysian palm oil in the first 25 days of November decreased by 16.4% - 40.77% month - on - month, and weak export demand dragged down the price [8] 2. DCE Palm Oil - As of November 28, the DCE palm oil 01 contract closed at 8,626 yuan/ton, up 0.89% from the previous week. The price increase was mainly driven by the rise in the price of BMD Malaysian palm oil, but the increase in domestic palm oil inventory dragged down the futures price [12] - This week, the quotes of foreign merchants increased. Recently, palm oil inventory increased slightly, and downstream transactions were relatively light [12] II. Producing Area Weather 1. Palm Oil Producing Area Weather - **Malaysian Producing Area Weather**: From November 22 - 28, except for a small part of southern Peninsular Malaysia and central Sarawak where precipitation was 15 - 25mm lower than the historical normal level, precipitation in other areas was at or higher than the historical normal level by 15 - 100mm. From November 29 - December 5, except for a small part of southern Peninsular Malaysia, southeastern Sarawak, and southern Sabah where precipitation was expected to be 15 - 50mm higher than the historical normal level, precipitation in other areas was expected to be generally at or lower than the historical normal level by 15 - 50mm [14][16] - **Indonesian Producing Area Weather**: From November 22 - 28, except for parts of southeastern Sumatra and southern Kalimantan where precipitation was 15 - 50mm lower than the historical normal level, precipitation in other areas was at or higher than the historical normal level by 15 - 100mm. From November 29 - December 5, except for parts of northern and southern Sumatra and western Kalimantan where precipitation was expected to be 15 - 50mm lower than the historical normal level, precipitation in other areas was expected to be generally at or higher than the historical normal level by 15 - 50mm [19][21] III. International Supply and Demand 1. GAPKI September Report - In September 2025, Indonesia's palm oil inventory at the end of the month was 2.592 million tons, a 2% increase from the previous month. The export volume of palm oil (including refined products) was 2.2 million tons, a 37% month - on - month decrease and a 3% year - on - year decrease. As of September, the cumulative export volume of palm oil (including refined products) in 2025 reached 2.4896 million tons, a 13% year - on - year increase [23] - In September 2025, Indonesia's crude palm oil (CPO) production was 3.932 million tons, a 22% month - on - month decrease and a 2% year - on - year decrease. As of September, Indonesia's CPO production in 2025 reached 39.581 million tons, an 11% year - on - year increase [23] 2. Malaysian Palm Oil November Forecast - **Export Forecast**: AmSpec data showed that Malaysia's palm oil export volume from November 1 - 25 was 987,978 tons, a 16.4% decrease from the same period last month. ITS data showed that the export volume from November 1 - 25 was 1,041,935 tons, an 18.8% decrease from the same period last month. SGS data predicted that the export volume from November 1 - 25 was 583,574 tons, a 40.77% decrease from the same period last month [31] - **Production Forecast**: SPPOMA data showed that from November 1 - 20, Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit area increased by 7.96% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.45% month - on - month, and production increased by 10.32% month - on - month. From November 1 - 25, the yield per unit area increased by 3.34% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.41% month - on - month, and production increased by 5.49% month - on - month. MPOA data showed that Malaysia's crude palm oil production from November 1 - 20 increased by 3.24% from the same period last month [34] 3. Other Important News - Indonesia will set the reference price of crude palm oil in December at $926.14/ton, lower than $963.75/ton in November. The export tariff of crude palm oil in December will drop to $74, lower than $124 in the previous month. Indonesia also imposes an additional 10% special export tax on crude palm oil [38] - Malaysia's palm oil exports to China in the first 10 months of this year decreased by about 29% year - on - year, facing challenges in competitiveness, logistics, pricing dynamics, and market positioning [38] - Continuous heavy rain in Indonesia's Sumatra Island caused floods and landslides, resulting in 52 deaths as of November 27. The floods affected 13 regions and cities in West Sumatra Province, and 16 telecommunications base stations were shut down [38] IV. Domestic Supply and Demand 1. Import Profit - This week, the inversion range of the palm oil futures import profit for the January 2026 shipment slightly widened [39] 2. Palm Oil Transactions - This week, palm oil transactions increased. As of the week of November 28, the total weekly transactions (spot transactions + basis transactions) of palm oil were 8,600 tons, an increase of 600 tons or 8% from the previous week [42] 3. Palm Oil Inventory - As of November 21, 2025 (week 47), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key domestic regions was 667,100 tons, a 1.39 - million - ton or 2.13% increase from the previous week, and a 159,200 - ton or 31.34% increase from the same period last year [44][45] V. Domestic and International Oil Futures and Spot Prices, and Spread Situations 1. Basis, Monthly Spread, and Variety Spread Situations - **Palm Oil Basis and Monthly Spread**: Relevant charts showed the basis of 24 - degree palm oil in Tianjin, Shandong, Jiangsu, and Guangzhou against the 01 futures contract, as well as the 1 - 5 spread of palm oil [48][52] - **Variety Spread and POGO Spread**: Relevant charts showed international soybean - palm oil spread, POGO spread, international rapeseed - palm oil spread, international sunflower - palm oil spread, domestic soybean - palm oil futures spread, and domestic rapeseed - palm oil futures spread [54][57][58] 2. Palm Oil Warehouse Receipt Quantity and Futures Open Interest - Relevant charts showed the quantity of DCE palm oil warehouse receipts and the open interest of the DCE palm oil 01 contract [60] 3. FOB Quotes - Relevant charts showed the FOB quotes of 24 - degree palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia [63]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating in the given report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of CBOT soybeans rose this week, influenced by USDA's report of soybean sales to China and the increase in US soybean oil prices. However, the continuous expansion of the year - on - year decline in cumulative US soybean export sales still dragged down the price trend. Meanwhile, the increase in RINs price and US soybean oil price is expected to benefit US soybean crushing. Attention should be paid to the changes in US soybean export demand, US biodiesel policy, and weather conditions in South American soybean - producing areas [6]. - The price of CBOT soybean meal declined slightly this week. The postponement of the EU's "Zero - Deforestation Act" and higher - than - expected US soybean meal export sales limited the decline. The high - level US soybean crushing maintained sufficient supply of soybean meal, which may still suppress the price [11]. - The price of DCE soybean meal rose, supported by the increase in Brazilian soybean import costs due to the rise in Brazilian soybean premium quotes. However, the inventory accumulation of soybean meal in oil mills restricted the price increase. Attention should be paid to the weather in South American soybean - producing areas, domestic soybean procurement, and inventory changes [14]. - The price of CBOT soybean oil increased, driven by the rise in international competing vegetable oil prices and the increase in the use of US soybean oil in biodiesel production in September. Continuous attention should be paid to the changes in US biodiesel policy [18]. - The price of DCE soybean oil rose, affected by the increase in soybean import costs and domestic competing vegetable oil prices. However, the high - level inventory of soybean oil in oil mills suppressed the price to some extent. Attention should be paid to the arrival of imported soybeans, soybean crushing, and inventory changes [22]. 3. Summary According to the Directory I. Market Review 1. Soybeans - As of November 28, the CBOT soybean 01 contract closed at 1137.25 cents per bushel, up 0.95% from the previous week. The price fluctuated upward, affected by soybean sales to China and the increase in US soybean oil prices, but the decline in export sales dragged down the price [6]. 2. Soybean Meal - **External Market**: As of November 28, the CBOT soybean meal 01 contract closed at $318.6 per short ton, down 0.38% from the previous week. The price declined slightly, and the postponement of the EU's act and high - export sales limited the decline [11]. - **Domestic Market**: As of November 28, the DCE soybean meal 01 contract closed at 3044 yuan per ton, up 1.06% from the previous week. The price rose due to the increase in import costs, but inventory accumulation restricted the increase [14]. 3. Soybean Oil - **External Market**: As of November 28, the CBOT soybean oil 01 contract closed at 52.08 cents per pound, up 2.90% from the previous week. The price increase was driven by international competing vegetable oil prices and biodiesel usage [18]. - **Domestic Market**: As of November 28, the DCE soybean oil 01 contract closed at 8244 yuan per ton, up 0.66% from the previous week. The price fluctuated upward, affected by import costs and competing vegetable oil prices, but high inventory suppressed the price [22]. II.产区 Weather 1. Brazilian Soybean - Producing Areas Weather - In the past week (November 21 - 28), rainfall and temperature in southern Brazil were lower than normal. In the next week (November 30 - December 7), rainfall in the central - western region is expected to increase, while rainfall in the south will still be lower than normal, and the temperature will be at a normal level [24][26]. 2. Argentine Soybean - Producing Areas Weather - In the past week (November 21 - 28), there was almost no rain in Argentine soybean - producing areas, and the temperature was normal. In the next week (November 30 - December 7), rainfall is expected to be scarce, with only slightly higher rainfall in some northern areas, and the temperature will be higher than normal [30][32]. III. International Supply and Demand 1. US Soybeans - **Export Inspection & Export Sales**: The weekly export inspection volume of US soybeans decreased month - on - month but met expectations, and the year - on - year decline in cumulative volume continued to expand. As of November 20, 2025, the export inspection volume was 799,042 tons. The cumulative export inspection volume of US soybeans in the current crop year was 10,937,372 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 44.50%. The year - on - year decline in the cumulative export sales of US soybeans in the 25/26 season also expanded [37][38][39]. - **D4 RINs Price**: The RINs price rose this week. As of November 26, 2025, the US D4 RINs price was 106 cents, up 5.5 cents from November 21 [44]. 2. Brazilian Soybeans - **Soybean Yield Forecast**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 Brazilian soybean yield, ranging from 1.67683455 billion tons to 1.7876 billion tons [47]. - **Soybean Sowing**: As of November 22, the Brazilian soybean sowing rate was 78.0% (CONAB data), and as of November 20, it was 81% (AgRural data). The sowing progress in different states also varied [47]. - **Export Sales**: Anec lowered the forecast of Brazilian soybean exports in November to 4.4 million tons. As of the third week of November 2025, the cumulative export of Brazilian soybeans was 104.28 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.11% [52]. - **Soybean Premium**: As of the week of November 28, 2025, the Brazilian soybean premium quote increased [55]. - **Soybean Crushing Profit**: The Brazilian soybean crushing profit rose this week. As of November 28, it was $52.07 per ton [57]. 3. Argentine Soybeans - **Soybean Sowing**: As of the week of November 27, 2025, the Argentine soybean sowing progress reached 39% (SAGyP data), and as of November 26, it was 36.0% (Buenos Aires Grain Exchange data) [59][60]. - **Farmer Sales**: The weekly sales of Argentine farmers' 24/25 season soybeans increased month - on - month. As of the week of November 19, 2025, they had sold a certain amount of soybeans in different seasons [62][63]. - **Soybean Crushing Profit**: The Argentine soybean crushing profit slightly recovered this week. As of November 28, it was - $2.99 per ton [69]. IV. Domestic Supply and Demand 1. Soybean Oil Supply and Demand - **China's Imported Soybean Procurement Progress**: McDonald Pelz released the weekly procurement progress of China's imported soybeans on November 25, 2025 [72]. - **Port and Oil Mill Soybean Inventory**: As of November 21, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 9.425 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 501,000 tons. The oil mill soybean inventory in the 47th week was 7.1499 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 327,200 tons [74]. - **Imported Soybean Arrival and Crushing**: The arrival volume of imported soybeans increased, while the crushing volume and startup rate of oil mills decreased. In the 47th week, the arrival volume of imported soybeans was about 2.0475 million tons, and in the 48th week, the actual crushing volume was 2.2038 million tons [77]. - **Soybean Oil Transaction**: The weekly transaction volume of soybean oil decreased. As of the week of November 28, 2025, the total transaction volume was 75,400 tons [80]. - **Soybean Oil Production and Apparent Consumption**: The production of soybean oil in oil mills decreased, while the apparent consumption increased. In the 48th week, the soybean oil production was 407,700 tons, and in the 47th week, the apparent consumption was 400,500 tons [82]. - **Soybean Oil Inventory**: The commercial inventory of soybean oil in oil mills increased. As of November 21, 2025, the national key - area soybean oil commercial inventory was 1.1799 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 31,400 tons [85]. 2. Soybean Meal Supply and Demand - **Soybean Meal Production and Apparent Consumption**: The production of soybean meal in oil mills decreased, while the apparent consumption increased. As of the week of November 28, 2025, the soybean meal production was 1.741 million tons, and as of November 21, the apparent consumption was 1.6856 million tons [88]. - **Oil Mill Soybean Meal Inventory and Feed Mill Physical Inventory Days**: The soybean meal inventory in oil mills increased. As of November 21, 2025, it was 1.1515 million tons. The physical inventory days of feed mills increased. As of November 28, it was 8.17 days [90]. - **Soybean Meal Transaction and Pick - up**: The weekly transaction volume and pick - up volume of soybean meal decreased. As of the week of November 28, 2025, the transaction volume was 644,000 tons, and the pick - up volume was 940,212 tons [93]. - **Downstream Demand**: The losses of downstream hog - raising and piglet - purchasing for fattening continued to deepen. The hog ex - factory price and hog - grain ratio decreased [95]. - **Soybean Meal Warehouse Receipt Quantity**: As of November 28, the registered quantity of DCE soybean meal warehouse receipts was 0 hands [97]. V. Domestic and International Oil Futures and Spot Prices, and Spread Situations 1. Basis, Calendar Spread, and Variety Spread Situations - **Soybean Oil Basis and Calendar Spread**: The report shows the basis and calendar spread data of soybean oil in different regions and time periods [100][101][103]. - **Soybean Meal Basis and Calendar Spread**: The report shows the basis and calendar spread data of soybean meal in different regions and time periods [106][107]. - **Variety Spread**: The report shows the spread data between soybean oil and palm oil, rapeseed oil, and the ratio data between soybean oil/soybean meal and corn/soybean meal [109][110][111]. 2. FOB Quotes - The report shows the FOB quotes and spreads of soybean oil, Brazilian soybean meal, US soybean meal, and Argentine soybean meal [113][114][116]. 3. CFTC Positioning - The report shows the net long positions of CBOT soybean, soybean oil, and soybean meal managed funds [119][120][121].