【国富豆系研究周报】CBOT 大豆震荡略涨，关注国内进口大豆采购 情况 20251110 国富研究 国富研究 2025年11月10日 07:20 上海 油脂油料周度行情 国量的货 目 录 1. 大豆 图片来源:文华财经 外盘方面,截至11月7日收盘,CBOT 大豆 01 合约收于 1117.25 美分 /蒲式耳,较前一周上涨 0.20%。本周 CBOT 大豆价格小幅上涨,一方面, 中美贸易关系预期改善仍支撑美豆价格;另一方面,美豆当周出口检验累 计同比降幅持续走扩以及市场预期美豆单产状况良好对盘面价格有所压制。 此外美豆粕价格下跌以及当前南美大豆主产区天气状况利于大豆播种和生 长亦拖累美豆价格走势。产量端,市场预期美豆单产处于 53.0 蒲/英亩以 上水平,大豆丰产预期偏强。出口端,美豆当周出口检验量虽符合预期, 但出口检验累计同比降幅继续走扩,美豆出口表现依旧疲弱对价格有所打 压。关注 NASS 即将公布的作物产量报告和全球农业供需报告、南美大豆主 2 公众号·国富研究 图:CBOT美豆行情 | r 行情回顾 | | --- | | 1. 大豆 | | 2. 豆粕 3 | | 3. 豆油 | | 二、产区天 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Market expectations of potential inventory buildup in Malaysian palm oil in October led to a decline in palm oil prices. The BMD Malaysian palm oil 01 contract closed at 4,110 ringgit/ton on November 7, down 2.26% from the previous week, and the DCE palm oil 01 contract closed at 8,660 yuan/ton, down 1.19% from the previous week [8][11]. - In the international market, there are increases in both production and exports of Malaysian palm oil in October, and it is expected to continue to accumulate inventory. Indian palm oil imports in October dropped to a five - year low. The estimated palm oil production in Indonesia and Malaysia for the 2025/26 season is 5,100 million tons and 1,920 million tons respectively [28][31][32]. - In the domestic market, the inversion of palm oil's import profit margin narrowed this week, trading volume decreased, and inventory declined [37][39][41]. Summary by Catalog 1. Market Review 1.1 BMD Malaysian Palm Oil - As of November 7, the BMD Malaysian palm oil 01 contract closed at 4,110 ringgit/ton, down 2.26% from the previous week. The price decline was mainly due to expectations of inventory buildup in October, an estimated increase in production in the first 5 days of November, and a projected drop in Indian imports in October [8]. - SPPOMA and MPOA estimated a 5.55% and 12.31% month - on - month increase in Malaysian palm oil production in October respectively, and SPPOMA data showed a 6.80% month - on - month increase in production in the first 5 days of November [8]. - Three major institutions' high - frequency data predicted a 4.31% - 26.54% month - on - month increase in Malaysian palm oil exports in October [8]. 1.2 DCE Palm Oil - As of November 7, the DCE palm oil 01 contract closed at 8,660 yuan/ton, down 1.19% from the previous week. The price decline was affected by factors such as a drop in domestic palm oil import costs and expectations of inventory buildup in Malaysian palm oil in October [11]. - The inversion of the palm oil's import profit margin narrowed this week, and the inversion of the soybean - palm oil price spread continued to correct [11]. 2. Production Area Weather 2.1 Malaysian Production Area Weather - From November 1 - 7, precipitation in most areas was at or below the historical normal level, with some areas in the northwest, southeast of the Malay Peninsula, and southern Sarawak having 15 - 50mm more precipitation than normal [13]. - From November 8 - 14, precipitation in most areas is expected to be at or below the historical normal level, with some areas in the northwest and south of the Malay Peninsula expected to have 15 - 100mm more precipitation than normal [15]. 2.2 Indonesian Production Area Weather - From November 1 - 7, precipitation in most areas was at or below the historical normal level, with some areas in southern Sumatra, southwest and northeast Kalimantan having 15 - 100mm more precipitation than normal [19]. - From November 8 - 14, precipitation in most parts of Sumatra and Kalimantan is expected to be at or close to the historical normal level, with some areas having differences in precipitation compared to normal [21]. 3. International Supply and Demand 3.1 Malaysian Palm Oil Forecast for October - November - **Export Forecast**: AmSpec, ITS, and SGS data showed that Malaysian palm oil exports in October increased by 4.31%, 5.19%, and 26.54% respectively compared to the previous month [23][24][25]. - **Production Forecast**: SPPOMA data showed a 5.55% month - on - month increase in Malaysian palm oil production in October and a 6.80% increase in the first 5 days of November. MPOA data showed a 12.31% month - on - month increase in Malaysian crude palm oil production in October, reaching 2.07 million tons [28]. 3.2 Other Important News - Indian palm oil imports in October dropped to a five - year low, with a total import volume of 750,000 tons, lower than 980,000 tons in September [31]. - The estimated palm oil production in Indonesia for the 2025/26 season is 5,100 million tons, and in Malaysia is 1,920 million tons [31][32]. - Malaysian palm oil inventory in October is expected to rise to a two - year high, with an estimated inventory of 2.44 million tons, a 3.5% increase [34]. 4. Domestic Supply and Demand 4.1 Import Profit - The inversion of the palm oil's import profit margin narrowed this week [37]. 4.2 Palm Oil Trading Volume - As of November 7, the weekly trading volume of palm oil (spot trading + basis trading) was 6,000 tons, a decrease of 5,600 tons from the previous week, a decline of 48% [39]. 4.3 Palm Oil Inventory - As of October 31, 2025 (week 44), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key domestic regions was 592,800 tons, a decrease of 14,300 tons from the previous week, a decline of 2.36% [41]. 5. Domestic and International Vegetable Oil Futures and Spot Prices, and Price Spreads 5.1 Basis, Month - to - Month Spread, and Variety Spread - Information on palm oil basis, month - to - month spread, variety spread, and POGO spread is presented through various charts [45][49]. 5.2 Palm Oil Warehouse Receipt Quantity and Futures Open Interest - Information on DCE palm oil warehouse receipt quantity and 01 contract open interest is presented through charts [54]. 5.3 FOB Quotes - Information on Malaysian and Indonesian 24 - degree palm oil FOB quotes is presented through charts [57].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The report presents a comprehensive overview of the futures market, including overnight and spot prices, important fundamental information, macro news, fund flows, and arbitrage tracking. It covers various commodities such as soybeans, palm oil, and crude oil, as well as international and domestic economic and political events that may impact the market. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight行情 - Overnight closing prices and percentage changes are reported for various futures contracts, including palm oil, Brent crude, and soybeans. Currency exchange rates and their percentage changes are also provided [1]. Spot行情 - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes for DCE palm oil, DCE豆油, and DCE豆粕 are presented for different regions [2]. Important Fundamental Information 产区天气 - Rain is expected in central and southern Brazil this week, which is beneficial for soybean crops. In Argentina, soybean sowing is expected to accelerate this month, but long - term weather may turn dry [5]. 国际供需 - Sabah in Malaysia is the biggest beneficiary of the oil palm replanting financing incentive plan, receiving 61 million Malaysian ringgit in grants. The US EPA will decide on small refineries' exemption applications. Brazilian soybean sowing progress and Canadian rapeseed export data are also reported [7][8]. 国内供需 - On November 7, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil decreased. The trading volume of soybean meal increased, and the oil mill's operating rate decreased. China's soybean and edible vegetable oil import data are provided, along with pig - raising profits and agricultural product price indices [11][12]. Macro要闻 国际要闻 - The US Senate failed to pass a motion on a federal employee appropriation bill, and the government "shutdown" persists. US consumer confidence and inflation expectations are reported [15]. 国内要闻 - The US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate decreased, and the central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations with a net withdrawal of funds. China's CPI and foreign trade data are reported, and the import qualification of US soybean enterprises is restored [17][18]. 资金流向 - On November 7, 2025, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 1.017 billion yuan, with different flows in commodity, stock index, and bond futures [21]. 套利跟踪 - No specific information provided in the content

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report presents a comprehensive overview of the commodities market, including overnight and spot prices, important fundamental information on supply - demand, and details on capital flows and macro - economic data. It offers insights into the palm oil, soybean, and other related markets both internationally and domestically, as well as key economic indicators from the US and China [1][3][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overnight Market Quotes - The closing price of BMD Malaysian palm oil futures contract 01 was 4122.00, with a previous - day decline of 0.84% and an overnight increase of 0.32% [1]. - Brent crude oil contract 01 on ICE closed at 63.55, down 1.24% from the previous day and 0.86% overnight [1]. - NYMEX WTI crude oil contract 12 closed at 59.64, down 1.31% from the previous day and 0.83% overnight [1]. - CBOT soybean contract 01 closed at 1134.50, up 1.27% from the previous day and 0.58% overnight [1]. - The US dollar index was at 100.17, down 0.04% [1]. 3.2 Spot Market Quotes - For DCE palm oil 2601, the spot price in North China was 8740, with a basis of 100 and no change from the previous day [3]. - For DCE soybean oil 2601, the spot price in Shandong was 8350, with a basis of 204 and a decrease of 18 from the previous day [3]. - For DCE soybean meal 2601, the spot price in Shandong was 3030, with a basis of - 10 and an increase of 21 from the previous day [3]. 3.3 Important Fundamental Information 3.3.1 Production Areas Weather - In central Brazil, showers will be active until next week, which is beneficial for crops. In South Rio Grande do Sul/Paraná, there will be regional showers until Thursday, scattered showers on Friday, and regional showers on Saturday. Temperatures will be near to above normal from Wednesday to Thursday and near to below normal from Friday to Saturday [5]. 3.3.2 International Supply - Demand - MPOA estimates that Malaysia's palm oil production from October 1 - 31 increased by 12.31% to 2.07 million tons, reaching an eight - year high [7]. - India's palm oil imports in October dropped to a five - year low of 750,000 tons due to increased domestic inventory, weak food industry demand, and a narrowing price gap with other oilseeds [8]. - Analysts expect that as of the week ending October 30, US 2025/26 soybean export sales will net increase by 400,000 - 2 million tons, soybean meal by 50,000 - 450,000 tons, and soybean oil by 5,000 - 25,000 tons [9]. 3.3.3 Domestic Supply - Demand - On November 5, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was 12,300 tons, a decrease of 10,900 tons or 47% compared to the previous trading day [13]. - On November 5, the total trading volume of soybean meal at major domestic oil mills was 132,100 tons, an increase of 62,000 tons compared to the previous day [13]. 3.3.4 International Macroeconomic Data - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 62.5%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 37.5% [14]. - The US ADP employment in October was 42,000, higher than the expected 28,000 [14]. 3.3.5 Domestic Macroeconomic News - On November 5, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was 7.0901, up 16 points (yuan depreciation) [16]. - On November 5, the People's Bank of China conducted 65.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 492.2 billion yuan due to 557.7 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase maturities [16]. 3.4 Capital Flows - On November 5, 2025, the futures market had a net capital inflow of 4.605 billion yuan. Commodity futures had a net inflow of 132 million yuan, including 1.087 billion yuan for agricultural product futures, 937 million yuan for chemical futures, and 773 million yuan for black - series futures, while metal futures had a net outflow of 2.664 billion yuan. Stock index futures had a net inflow of 4.278 billion yuan, and treasury bond futures had a net outflow of 30 million yuan [20]. 3.5 Arbitrage Tracking No specific information provided in the given content.

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints The report presents a comprehensive overview of the agricultural and energy futures markets, including overnight and spot prices, important fundamental information, macro - economic news, and capital flow data. It also provides forecasts on the supply and demand of key agricultural products such as palm oil and soybeans. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight行情 - Overnight closing prices, previous day's and overnight percentage changes are given for various futures including palm oil, Brent crude, US crude, soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil. For example, the closing price of BMD palm oil 01 is 4139.00 with a previous day's increase of 0.70% and an overnight decrease of 0.12% [1]. - Latest prices and percentage changes are provided for multiple currencies such as the US dollar index, Chinese yuan, Malaysian ringgit, etc. For instance, the US dollar index is at 100.20 with a 0.34% increase [1]. 现货行情 - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes for DCE palm oil 2601, DCE豆油 2601, and DCE豆粕 2601 in different regions are presented. For example, the spot price of DCE palm oil 2601 in North China is 8720 with a basis of 100 and no change in basis [3]. - CNF升贴水 and CNF报价 for imported soybeans from different regions are shown. The CNF升贴水 for Brazilian soybeans is 235 cents per bushel and the CNF报价 is 503 dollars per ton [5]. 重要基本面信息 - **产区天气**: Rainy weather has returned to central Brazil, which is beneficial for soybean crops. Different states in Brazil have different weather conditions and temperature trends [6]. - **国际供需** - MPOB月报前瞻: Malaysian palm oil inventory is expected to rise 3.5% to 2440000 tons in October, with production reaching 1940000 tons (up 5.6% from the previous month) and exports increasing 3.8% to 1480000 tons [8]. - StoneX: Reduced the US 2025 soybean yield forecast from 53.9 to 53.6 bushels per acre, and the production forecast to 4.303 billion bushels [8]. - S&P Global Commodity Insights: Predicted the 2025 US soybean average yield at 53.0 bushels per acre and production at 4.260 billion bushels [8]. - StoneX: Kept the forecasts for Brazil's 2025/26 soybean and summer corn harvests largely unchanged, with a 0.1% increase in the 2025/26 soybean production forecast [9]. - Imea: The soybean crushing profit in Mato Grosso state from October 27 - 31 was 502.44 Brazilian reals per ton [9]. - Deral: The soybean planting area in Parana state reached 79% of the expected area, with 93% of the evaluated area having good growth [9]. - EU: As of November 2, the 2025/26 palm oil, soybean, soybean meal, and rapeseed imports were 960000 tons, 3.81 million tons, 6.11 million tons, and 1.26 million tons respectively, all lower than the previous year [10][11]. - Kazakhstan: Exports of livestock feed meal in September 2025 reached a record high of 305000 tons, 2.5 times the previous year [11]. - Baltic Dry Index: Rose 13 points or 0.7% to 1958 points due to increased demand for Capesize vessels [11]. - **国内供需** - On November 4, soybean oil and palm oil total sales were 23200 tons, a 121% increase from the previous day [13]. - On November 4, the total soybean meal sales of major domestic oil mills were 70100 tons, a decrease of 34200 tons from the previous day. The national oil mill operating rate was 51.51%, a 2.37% decrease [13]. - As of November 4, the national soybean oil port inventory was 1199000 tons, a decrease of 35000 tons from October 28 [13]. - The average prices of piglets, live pigs, and pork in China changed compared to the previous week and the same period last year [13]. - On November 4, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" decreased by 0.13 points, and the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index decreased by 0.16 points [14]. 宏观要闻 - **国际要闻** - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 70.1%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 29.9% [17]. - The US Red Book commercial retail sales annual rate increased 5.7% in the week ending November 1 [17]. - The US Senate failed to pass the federal government's temporary appropriation bill on November 4, and the government "shutdown" is set to become the longest in history [18]. - The US API crude oil inventory in the week ending October 31 was 6.521 million barrels [18]. - The Reserve Bank of Australia kept the benchmark interest rate at 3.60% and is cautious about further easing [18]. - **国内要闻** - On November 4, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was 7.0885, up 18 points [20]. - On November 4, the People's Bank of China conducted 117.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 357.8 billion yuan [20]. - On November 5, the People's Bank of China will conduct 700 billion yuan of 3 - month (91 - day) outright reverse repurchase operations [20]. 资金流向 On November 4, 2025, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 15.329 billion yuan, including a net outflow of 9.065 billion yuan in commodity futures and 6.369 billion yuan in stock index futures, and a net inflow of 0.01 billion yuan in treasury bond futures [23]. 套利跟踪 No specific content is provided in the given report.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report presents the latest market information for agricultural products and energy commodities, including overnight and spot market prices, important fundamental data, macro - economic news, and capital flow trends. It also analyzes the supply - demand situation from both international and domestic perspectives. 3. Summary by Directory 01 Overnight Market - Overnight prices and percentage changes of various futures contracts such as Malaysian palm oil, Brent crude oil, US crude oil, US soybeans, US soybean meal, and US soybean oil are provided. For example, the closing price of Malaysian palm oil 01 (BMD) is 4132.00, with a previous day's decline of 2.14% and an overnight increase of 0.41% [1]. - Exchange rate information including the US dollar index, and exchange rates of multiple currencies against the US dollar are given, like the US dollar index at 99.86 with a 0.16% increase [1]. 02 Spot Market - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE palm oil 2601, DCE soybean oil 2601, and DCE soybean meal 2601 in different regions are presented. For instance, the spot price of DCE palm oil 2601 in North China is 8770, with a basis of 100 and a basis change of 0 [3]. - CNF premiums and quotes for imported soybeans from different regions are shown. The CNF premium for US Gulf soybeans is 232 cents per bushel, and the CNF quote is 498 dollars per ton [5]. 03 Important Fundamental Information - Regional Weather - US soybean - producing states' weather outlook from November 8 - 12 shows that temperatures will be near to above normal, and precipitation will be near or below the median. The Midwest may experience variable weather that could disrupt harvesting [6][8]. - Brazil is expected to have widespread precipitation this week, which is beneficial for crops [8]. - International Supply - Demand - In October 2025, Malaysian palm oil production increased by 5.55% month - on - month, and exports increased by 26.54% compared to the same period last month [9]. - Indonesia's palm oil and refined palm oil exports in the first 9 months of 2025 increased by 11.62% year - on - year [9]. - The estimated US soybean harvest rate as of last Sunday is 91%, and the corn harvest rate is 83%. The US is expected to have a bumper harvest of both crops [10]. - As of November 1, Brazil's soybean sowing rate is 47.1%, lower than the same period last year and the five - year average [11]. - Domestic Supply - Demand - On November 3, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil decreased by 2600 tons (20%) compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume of soybean meal also decreased [16]. - As of October 31, 2025, the commercial inventories of palm oil and soybean oil in key regions decreased compared to the previous week, while the port inventory of imported soybeans increased [16]. 04 Macroeconomic News - International News - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 67.3%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 32.7% [19]. - US manufacturing PMI data for October shows that the ISM manufacturing PMI is 48.7, lower than expected, while the S&P Global manufacturing PMI is 52.5, higher than the previous value [19]. - The eurozone's manufacturing PMI in October is in line with expectations at 50 [19]. - Domestic News - On November 3, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was adjusted downwards (the yuan appreciated) by 13 points [21]. - The Chinese central bank conducted 783 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on November 3, resulting in a net withdrawal of 2590 billion yuan [21]. 05 Capital Flow - On November 3, 2025, the futures market had a net capital inflow of 1.399 billion yuan. Commodity futures had a net inflow of 1.76 billion yuan, while stock index futures had a net outflow of 252 million yuan and bond futures had a net outflow of 88 million yuan [24]. 06 Arbitrage Tracking No relevant content provided.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report presents a comprehensive analysis of the futures market, including overnight and spot prices, important fundamental information, macro news, fund flows, and arbitrage tracking [1][3][6][18][23][26] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Market - The closing prices and percentage changes of various futures contracts such as palm oil, Brent crude, US crude, soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil are presented, along with the latest prices and percentage changes of currency indices [1] Spot Market - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, and DCE soybean meal in different regions are provided [3] Important Fundamental Information 产区天气 - The future weather outlook for US soybean - producing states from November 5th to 9th shows that temperatures will be above normal and precipitation will be near or below the median [6] - In the US Midwest, sporadic showers may disrupt early - November harvesting or other field operations, with variable weather and limited precipitation [8] - In central Brazil, showers have restarted, and more extensive rainfall is expected this week, which may affect soybean crop germination and early growth [9] 进出口及产量数据 - AmSpec reported that Malaysia's palm oil exports in October increased by 4.31% month - on - month, while ITS reported a 5.19% increase [10] - Indonesia set the reference price for crude palm oil in November slightly higher than in October, with export taxes remaining unchanged [10] - The USDA may release several major agricultural reports in November, and analysts expect US soybean crushing volume in September to reach a record high [10][11] - The amount of soybean oil used to produce biofuels in the US in August decreased compared to July [11] - The soybean planting progress in Mato Grosso state is 76.13%, slightly lower than the historical average [12] - The rapeseed harvesting progress in Canada is high, and the export volume increased in the week ending October 26th, but decreased compared to the same period last year [12] - India's soybean meal exports in the 2024/25 fiscal year decreased by 11% [13] - The Baltic Dry Index declined, with different types of ships showing varying price trends [14] 国内供需 - On October 31st, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil increased by 26% compared to the previous trading day [16] - The trading volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills increased, and the overall oil mill operating rate decreased [16] - The actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills in the 44th week was lower than expected [16] - The pig - raising profit improved, and the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and "Vegetable Basket Product Wholesale Price Index" increased on October 31st [16][17] Macro News International News - A Fed official believes that the Fed should not cut interest rates this week or in December [19] - Analysts' forecasts for oil prices remain largely unchanged, and OPEC+ may slightly increase its oil production target or pause production increases [19][20] Domestic News - On October 31st, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was adjusted upwards, and the central bank achieved a net investment through reverse repurchase operations [22] - The Dalian Commodity Exchange will list option contracts for soybean meal and corn futures [22] Fund Flows - On October 31st, 2025, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 9.226 billion yuan, with commodity futures having a net outflow of 2.724 billion yuan and stock index futures having a net outflow of 6.722 billion yuan, while treasury bond futures had a net inflow of 140 million yuan [25] Arbitrage Tracking - No relevant information provided

Report Information - Report Title: [Guofu Bean Series Research Weekly Report] US Soybeans and US Soybean Meal Prices Rise, with External Market Performance Stronger than Domestic Market [1] - Report Date: November 3, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The prices of US soybeans and US soybean meal increased, with the external market outperforming the domestic market. The price of CBOT soybeans was mainly influenced by the expected improvement in Sino - US trade relations and the rise in CBOT soybean meal prices. The price of CBOT soybean meal was supported by the expected improvement in US soybean exports and its low - level price advantage. The price of CBOT soybean oil declined due to the fall in international competing vegetable oil prices and the "strong meal, weak oil" situation. The domestic soybean and soybean product markets were also affected by international market trends, as well as factors such as domestic supply and demand, inventory, and import and export conditions [9][13][20] Summary by Directory I. Market Review 1. Soybeans - External market: As of October 31, the CBOT soybean 11 - contract closed at 1100.00 cents per bushel, up 5.59% from the previous week, and the 01 - contract closed at 1115.00 cents per bushel, up 5.14%. The price increase was due to the expected improvement in Sino - US trade relations and the rise in CBOT soybean meal prices. The dry weather in the US soybean - producing areas was beneficial for harvesting, but the cumulative export inspection volume was still lower than the same period last year [9] 2. Soybean Meal - External market: As of October 31, the CBOT soybean meal 12 - contract closed at 321.4 dollars per short - ton, up 9.36% from the previous week. The price increase was supported by the expected improvement in US soybean exports and the low - level price advantage [13] - Domestic market: As of October 31, the DCE soybean meal 01 - contract closed at 3021 yuan per ton, up 3.00%. The price increase was driven by the rise in CBOT soybean prices, but was restricted by the decline in Brazilian soybean premium quotes and high domestic soybean meal inventories [16] 3. Soybean Oil - External market: As of October 31, the CBOT soybean oil 12 - contract closed at 48.62 cents per pound, down 3.32%. The price decline was due to the fall in international competing vegetable oil prices and the "strong meal, weak oil" situation [20] - Domestic market: As of October 31, the DCE soybean oil 01 - contract closed at 8128 yuan per ton, down 0.81%. The price decline was affected by the fall in domestic competing vegetable oil prices and high domestic soybean oil inventories [23] II. Production Area Weather 1. Brazilian Soybean Production Area Weather - Past week (October 24 - 31): Rainfall was mainly concentrated in the southern region, with slightly lower rainfall in the central - western region than normal, and the overall temperature was lower than normal [24][25] - Next week (November 2 - 9): Rainfall is expected to mainly occur in the southern region, and the temperature in the central part of the production area will be higher than normal [27] 2. Argentine Soybean Production Area Weather - Past week (October 24 - 31): Local rainfall in the main production areas was higher than normal, and the temperature was lower than normal [31] - Next week (November 2 - 9): Rainfall is expected to be slightly higher than normal, and the temperature will be slightly lower than normal [33] III. International Supply and Demand 1. US Soybeans - USDA drought monitoring report: As of the week of October 28, about 34% of US soybean - growing areas were affected by drought, down from 39% the previous week and 73% in the same period last year [38] - Export inspection: The weekly export inspection volume met expectations, but the cumulative year - on - year decline continued to widen. As of the week of October 23, 2025, the export inspection volume was 1,061,375 tons. As of the week of October 24, 2024, it was 2,630,651 tons. The cumulative export inspection volume this crop year was 6,715,111 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 36.91% [40] - D4 RINs price: As of October 31, 2025, the US D4 RINs price was 100 cents, unchanged from October 24 [43] - Other important news: The Sino - US economic and trade teams reached consensus on issues such as tariff cancellation, export control suspension, and expansion of agricultural product trade through consultations in Kuala Lumpur [45] 2. Brazilian Soybeans - Soybean production forecast: Different institutions' forecasts for the 2025/26 Brazilian soybean production range from 1.75 billion to 1.8 billion tons [47] - Soybean sowing: As of the week of October 25, 2025, the soybean planting rate was 34.4%. The sowing progress in some states such as Mato Grosso and Parana was also reported [47][48] - Export sales: Anec lowered the October export forecast to 7 million tons. As of the week of October 31, 2025, the cumulative export volume was 99.297 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.26% [50][52] - Soybean premium: As of the week of October 31, 2025, the Brazilian soybean premium declined [55] - Brazilian soybean crushing profit: As of October 31, 2025, the crushing profit was 28.16 dollars per ton, down from 28.87 dollars per ton on October 24 [58] 3. Argentine Soybeans - Farmer sales: As of the week of October 22, 2025, the pre - sale of 2025/26 soybeans by Argentine farmers increased compared to the previous week [60] - Argentine soybean crushing profit: As of October 31, 2025, the crushing profit was 9.08 dollars per ton, down from 18.88 dollars per ton on October 24 [65] IV. Domestic Supply and Demand 1. Soybean Oil Supply and Demand - China's imported soybean procurement progress: The procurement progress data for the week of October 28, 2025, was provided [68] - Port and oil - mill soybean inventories: As of October 24, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 9.731 million tons, a decrease of 153,000 tons from the previous week, and the oil - mill soybean inventory was 7.5129 million tons, a decrease of 174,100 tons [70] - Imported soybean arrivals and crushing: In the 43rd week (October 18 - 24, 2025), the arrival volume was about 2.145 million tons, and in the 44th week (October 25 - 31, 2025), the actual crushing volume was 2.2534 million tons, with an operating rate of 61.99% [72] - Soybean oil trading volume: As of the week of October 31, 2025, the weekly trading volume was 80,700 tons, an increase from the previous week [74] - Soybean oil production and apparent consumption: In the 44th week (October 25 - 31, 2025), the production was 416,900 tons, and in the 43rd week (October 18 - 24, 2025), the apparent consumption was 411,700 tons [76] - Soybean oil inventory: As of October 24, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions was 1.2503 million tons, an increase of 26,300 tons from the previous week [80] 2. Soybean Meal Supply and Demand - Soybean meal production and apparent consumption: As of the week of October 31, 2025, the production was 1.7802 million tons, a decrease of 90,100 tons from the previous week. As of the week of October 24, 2025, the apparent consumption was 1.7918 million tons, a decrease of 22,400 tons from the previous week [82] - Oil - mill soybean meal inventory and feed - mill physical inventory days: As of October 24, 2025, the soybean meal inventory was 1.0546 million tons, an increase of 78,400 tons from the previous week. As of October 31, 2025, the physical inventory days of feed enterprises were 8.02 days, an increase of 0.06 days from October 24 [85] - Soybean meal trading volume and pick - up volume: As of the week of October 31, 2025, the trading volume was 558,900 tons, an increase of 3.16% from the previous week, and the pick - up volume was 981,800 tons, a decrease of 2.06% from the previous week [88] - Downstream demand: The losses in pig - breeding and piglet - purchasing breeding profits continued to narrow. The live - pig ex - factory price and the pig - grain ratio increased [91] - Soybean meal warehouse receipt quantity: As of October 31, 2025, the registered quantity of Dalian Commodity Exchange soybean meal warehouse receipts was 42,332 lots [93] V. Domestic and International Vegetable Oil Futures and Spot Prices, and Spread Situations 1. Basis, Calendar Spread, and Product Spread Situations - Soybean oil basis and calendar spread: Data on the basis of first - grade soybean oil in different regions against the 01 contract and the 1 - 5 spread were presented [97][98] - Soybean meal basis and calendar spread: Data on the basis of 43% soybean meal in different regions against the 01 contract and the 1 - 5 spread were presented [100][102] - Product spread: Data on the spreads between soybean oil and palm oil, rapeseed oil and soybean oil, and the ratios of soybean oil to soybean meal and corn to soybean meal were presented [104][105] 2. FOB Quotes - Quotes and spreads of soybean oil, Brazilian soybean meal, US soybean meal, and Argentine soybean meal FOB were presented [108][110][112] 3. CFTC Positioning - The net long positions of CBOT soybean, soybean meal, and soybean oil managed funds were presented [114][115]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report comprehensively presents the overnight and spot market conditions of multiple commodities such as palm oil, soybeans, and crude oil, along with important fundamental information including weather, production, inventory, and export data. It also covers macro - economic news from both international and domestic fronts, as well as details on capital flows and futures market arbitrage tracking [1][3][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Overnight Market Conditions - **Futures**: The closing prices and price changes of multiple futures contracts are reported, including Malaysian palm oil, Brent crude oil, US crude oil, US soybeans, US soybean meal, and US soybean oil. For example, the closing price of Malaysian palm oil 01 (BMD) was 4290.00, with a previous - day decline of 1.30% and an overnight decline of 0.58% [1]. - **Currencies**: The latest prices and price changes of multiple currencies are provided, such as the US dollar index, Chinese yuan, Malaysian ringgit, Indonesian rupiah, Brazilian real, Argentine peso, and Singapore dollar [1]. 3.2 Spot Market Conditions - **Futures - Spot**: Spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE palm oil 2601, DCE soybean oil 2601, and DCE soybean meal 2601 in different regions are given. For instance, the spot price of DCE palm oil 2601 in North China is 9070, with a basis of 90 and a basis change of 0 [3]. - **Imported Soybeans**: CNF premiums and quotes for imported soybeans from different regions are presented, with Brazilian soybeans having a CNF premium of 250 cents per bushel and a CNF quote of 490 dollars per ton [3]. 3.3 Important Fundamental Information - **Weather**: The future weather outlook for US soybean - producing states (November 2 - 6) shows uneven temperature distribution and mostly normal or below - median precipitation. The US Midwest will have sporadic showers and brief cooling this week. Brazilian central regions are expected to see rainfall again, which is beneficial for soybean planting [4][6][7]. - **Production, Inventory, and Export**: GAPKI predicts that Indonesia's palm oil production in 2025 will increase by 10% to about 5,600 million tons, and exports will be 3,000 - 3,100 million tons. In August 2025, Indonesia's palm oil inventory decreased to 254 million tons. As of Sunday, the estimated completion of US soybean and corn harvests are 84% and 72% respectively. Brazil's soybean and soybean meal exports in October are expected to be 700 million tons and 208 million tons respectively [8][9]. - **Other Information**: The soybean crushing profit in Mato Grosso state from October 20 - 24 was 467.42 Brazilian reals per ton. The EU's imports of palm oil, soybeans, soybean meal, and rapeseed from October 2025 - 26 are lower than the same period last year. Nepal's exports to India increased by 137.9% in the first quarter of the 2025 - 26 fiscal year, mainly driven by soybean oil exports. The Baltic Dry Index continued to decline on Tuesday [9][10][11]. - **Trading and Inventory**: On October 28, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was 16,900 tons, a 35% increase. The trading volume of soybean meal in major oil mills across the country was 113,400 tons, an increase of 17,200 tons. The national dynamic full - sample oil mill operating rate was 64.01%, a decrease of 1.96%. The national soybean oil port inventory on October 28 was 1234,000 tons, an increase of 29,000 tons [12]. 3.4 Macro - economic News - **International News**: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in October is 99.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut in December is 91.6%. The average number of newly added US jobs is estimated to be 14,250. The US October unemployment rate is estimated to be 4.35%. There are also data on US retail sales, manufacturing index, consumer confidence index, housing price index, and API crude oil inventory [14]. - **Domestic News**: On October 28, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was 7.0856, down 25 points. The People's Bank of China conducted 475.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 315.8 billion yuan [16]. 3.5 Capital Flows On October 28, 2025, the net capital outflow from the futures market was 17.622 billion yuan, including a net outflow of 11.52 billion yuan from commodity futures (1.152 billion yuan from agricultural product futures, a net outflow of 467 million yuan from chemical futures, a net outflow of 1.183 billion yuan from black - series futures, and a net outflow of 10.546 billion yuan from metal futures), a net outflow of 7.354 billion yuan from stock index futures, and a net inflow of 1.256 billion yuan from treasury bond futures [19]. 3.6 Arbitrage Tracking No detailed information provided other than the section title.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The global vegetable oil demand in the 2025/26 period is expected to reach a record high, with the import volume of eight major oils increasing by 3.1 million tons to 94.5 million tons. The main driving force for the import increase is the expected 6.1 million - ton rise in global vegetable oil consumption, more than twice that of the previous year. However, vegetable oil prices will still face pressure in 2025/26 [10]. - The implementation of Indonesia's B50 policy may significantly reduce its exportable palm - oil supply, and the global vegetable oil demand in the coming year will rely heavily on sunflower oil [11]. - The weather in the US and Brazil will have an impact on crop growth and harvesting. In the US, future rainfall may help relieve drought but may also delay crop harvesting; in Brazil, the current dry weather is beneficial for farmers' field operations [6][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 01 Overnight Quotes - Futures quotes: The closing prices and daily/overnight percentage changes of commodities such as Malaysian palm oil, Brent crude oil, and US soybeans are presented. For example, the closing price of Malaysian palm oil 01 (BMD) is 4466.00, with a previous - day increase of 0.36% and an overnight decrease of 0.09% [1]. - Currency quotes: The latest prices and percentage changes of the US dollar index and various currencies against the US dollar are provided, including the US dollar index at 98.92 with a 0.05% increase [1]. 02 Spot Quotes - Spot prices and basis information for DCE palm oil 2601, DCE soybean oil 2601, and DCE soybean meal 2601 in different regions are given. For example, the spot price of DCE palm oil 2601 in North China is 9330, with a basis of 90 and a basis change of 0 [3]. - CNF quotes and CNF premium information for imported soybeans from different regions are provided, such as the CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans at 285 cents per bushel and the CNF quote at 483 dollars per ton [3]. 03 Important Fundamental Information - Production Area Weather - US soybean - producing states: The future weather (October 28 - November 1) in most of the US soybean - producing states will have temperatures above normal and precipitation above the average. In addition, frost may occur in some areas in the Midwest in the coming days, and precipitation may delay crop harvesting [4][6]. - Brazil: The current dry weather in Brazil is beneficial for farmers' field operations. A new front will bring showers to the southern and central regions this weekend and early next week, which is generally favorable for soybean planting [7][8]. - International Supply and Demand - Global vegetable oil: The expected increase in global vegetable oil demand in 2025/26 is mainly due to the strong demand from the biodiesel industries in the US, Indonesia, and Brazil. However, traditional exporters may reduce their exports, and Indonesia's biodiesel policy is an unstable factor [10]. - Palm oil in Indonesia: If Indonesia implements the B50 policy, the amount of palm oil used for blending will increase, and the exportable supply will decrease significantly [11]. - Soybean: The IGC predicts that the global soybean output in 2025/26 will decrease by 1 million tons to 428 million tons, the trade volume will increase by 2 million tons to 187 million tons, and the consumption will decrease by 1 million tons to 430 million tons [12]. - Domestic Supply and Demand - Commodity trading volume: On October 23, the trading volume of soybean oil was 11,000 tons, and that of palm oil was 3,600 tons, with a total trading volume of 14,600 tons, a 2.67% decrease from the previous trading day [16]. - Soybean meal trading and oil - mill operation: On October 23, the trading volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was 148,600 tons, an increase of 20,500 tons from the previous day. The operating rate of all - sample oil mills was 68.13%, a 0.38% increase from the previous day [16]. - Agricultural product prices: On October 23, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and the "Vegetable Basket Product Wholesale Price Index" both increased. The prices of various agricultural products such as pork, beef, and eggs also changed to different extents [16]. 04 Macroeconomic News - International News - Fed rate - cut expectations: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in October is 98.3%, and the probability of cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cuts in December is 93.4% [18]. - US economic data: US September existing - home sales totaled 4.06 million units, in line with expectations; the Kansas City Fed manufacturing composite index in October was 6, higher than expected [18]. - EU sanctions: The EU has imposed new sanctions on Russia due to the Russia - Ukraine conflict and has also sanctioned some Chinese and Indian companies. China has expressed strong dissatisfaction and opposition [18]. - Domestic News - Exchange rate: On October 23, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was 7.0918, a 36 - point decrease (appreciation of the Chinese yuan) [20]. - Central bank operations: On October 23, the People's Bank of China conducted 212.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 236 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 23.5 billion yuan [20]. - Policy news: The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China proposed to build a strong domestic market and accelerate the construction of a new development pattern. China and the US will hold economic and trade consultations in Malaysia from October 24 - 27 [21]. 05 Capital Flows - On October 23, 2025, the net inflow of funds into the futures market was 27.536 billion yuan, including 3.42 billion yuan into commodity futures, 24.868 billion yuan into stock - index futures, and a net outflow of 729 million yuan from bond futures [24]. 06 Arbitrage Tracking No relevant content provided.