| í | 行情回顾 . | | --- | --- | | 1. | BMD 马棕 1 | | 2. | DCE 棕榈油 | | | 二、产区天气 | | 1. | 棕榈油产区天气 | | = ( | 国际供需 5 | | 1. | 马棕 11月预测 | | 2. | 其他重要资讯 | | 四、 | 国内供需 8 | | | 1. 进口利润 | | 2. | N NO NO 棕榈油成交 | | 3. | 棕榈油库存 | | 五、 | 国内外油脂期现价格、价差情况 | | 1. | 基差、月差、品种差情况 | | 2. | 棕榈油仓单数量和期货持仓量 | | | 3. FOB 报价 13 | 【国富棕榈油研究周报】棕榈油价格上涨，关注 MPOB 报告数据 20251208 国富研究 国富研究 2025年12月8日 07:21 上海 油脂油料周度行情 目录 2公众号 · 国富研究 油脂油料周度行情 一、行情回顾 1. BMD 马棕 图: BMD马棕行情图 图片来源:文华财经 外盘方面,截至12月5日收盘,BMD 马棕 02 合约收于 4152 令吉/吨, 较上周上涨 0.92%。本周马棕价格上涨,主要受市场预期 ...

【国富豆系研究周报】美豆出口需求依旧疲软，CBOT 大豆价格下 跌 20251208 国富研究 国富研究 2025年12月8日 07:21 上海 标题已修改 油脂油料周度行情 目录 | 一、行情回顾 | | --- | | 1. 大豆 | | 2. 豆粕 | | 3. 豆油 | | 二、产区天气 | | 1. 巴西大豆产区天气 7 | | 2. 阿根廷大豆产区天气 8 | | 国际供需 10 = ( | | 1. 美国大豆 10 | | 2. 巴西大豆 | | 3. 阿根廷大豆 18 | | 四、 国内供需 21 | | 1. 豆油供需 21 | | 2. 豆粕供需 | | 五、 国内外油脂期现价格、价差情况 | | 1. 基差、月差、品种差情况 . | | 2. FOB 报价 | | 3. CFTC 持仓情况 | 2 公众号 · 国富研究 油脂油料周度行情 一、 行情回顾 1. 大豆 图:CBOT美豆行情 图片来源:文华财经 外盘方面,截至12月5日收盘,CBOT 大豆 01 合约收于 1105.25 美分 /蒲式耳,较前一周下跌2.81%。本周 CBOT 大豆价格下跌,主要受美豆出 现需求表现依旧疲软以及 ...

【国富期货早间看点】MPOA马棕11月产量环比减4.38% 分析师预 估25/26年美豆期末库存为3.02亿蒲 20251208 国富研究 国富研究 2025年12月8日 07:21 上海 01 隔夜行情 | | 收盘价 | 上日涨跌幅(%) | 隔夜涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 马棕油02(BMD) | 4152.00 | 1.12 | | | 布伦特02(ICE) | 63. 86 | 0. 77 | 0. 39 | | 美原油01(NYMEX) | 60. 14 | 0.74 | 0.23 | | 美豆01 (CBOT) | 1105. 25 | -1.29 | -1. 21 | | 美豆粕01(CBOT) | 307. 40 | -1.22 | -0.93 | | 美豆油01(CBOT) | 51. 70 | -0. 29 | -1.15 | | | 最新价 | 涨跌幅(%) | 十日涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 美元指数 | 98.97 | -0. 08 | | | 人民币(CNY/USD) | 7. 0749 | 0 ...

【国富期货早间看点】USDA美豆当周出口合计净增124.85万吨 Secex巴西大豆11月出口419.7万吨 20251205 国富研究 国富研究 2025年12月5日 07:44 上海 01 隔夜行情 | | 收盘价 | 上日涨跌幅(%) | 隔夜涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 马棕油02(BMD) | 4123.00 | -1.20 | 0. 41 | | 布伦特02(ICE) | 63. 37 | 0.99 | 1.23 | | 美原油01(NYMEX) | 59.70 | 1.00 | 1.39 | | 美豆01 (CBOT) | 1119.75 | 0. 31 | 0. 43 | | 美豆粕01(CBOT) | 311.20 | 0.00 | -0. 64 | | 美豆油01(CBOT) | 51.85 | 0. 27 | 1. 27 | | | 最新价 | 涨跌幅(%) | 十日涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 美元指数 | 99.05 | 0.16 | | | 人民币(CNY/USD) | 7. 0733 | -0. 0 ...

【国富期货早间看点】市场预计马棕11月库存为266万吨 阿根廷 25/26年度大豆产量预计为4690万吨 20251204 国富研究 国富研究 2025年12月4日 07:57 上海 01 隔夜行情 | | 收盘价 | 上日涨跌幅(%) | 隔夜涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 马棕油02(BMD) | 4130.00 | -0. 02 | -0. 63 | | 布伦特02(ICE) | 62. 75 | 0.58 | -0. 35 | | 美原油01(NYMEX) | 59.11 | 0. 89 | -0. 15 | | 美豆01(CBOT) | 1116. 25 | -0. 69 | -0. 53 | | 美豆粕01(CBOT) | 311.20 | -0. 13 | -0.26 | | 美豆油01(CBOT) | 51. 71 | -1. 65 | -1. 11 | | | 最新价 | 涨跌幅(%) | 十日涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 美元指数 | 98. 90 | -0. 44 | | | 人民币(CNY/USD) | 7 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report presents a comprehensive analysis of the agricultural commodity market, including the overnight and spot market conditions of various agricultural products, important fundamental information such as weather in major production areas, supply - demand dynamics at home and abroad, macro - economic news, and details on capital flows and arbitrage tracking. This provides a basis for understanding the current state and potential trends of the agricultural commodity market [1][2][12] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Overnight Market Conditions - The closing prices, previous - day and overnight percentage changes of various futures are given. For example, the closing price of BMD's February Malaysian palm oil futures was 4170.00, with a previous - day increase of 1.56% and an overnight increase of 0.31%. There are also details on the latest prices, percentage changes, and ten - day percentage changes of currency indices [1] Spot Market Conditions - For futures such as DCE's palm oil, soybean oil, and soybean meal in 2026, the spot prices, basis, and basis changes in different regions are provided. Additionally, CNF quotes and CNF premium changes for imported soybeans from different regions are presented [2] Important Fundamental Information Production Area Weather - In Brazil, the soil moisture in the southern part is suitable, but the decreasing rainfall frequency is causing a slow drying process. In Argentina, the soybean - growing conditions are uneven due to intermittent heavy rainfall and drought. Malaysia's flood risk is expected to subside, which is beneficial for palm oil production [5][6] International Trade and Supply - Demand - Malaysia's November palm oil exports decreased by 39.21% compared to the previous month. FGV and Felda may face production decline due to an order to evacuate plantations. Indonesia's palm oil exports from January to October 2025 increased by 7.83% compared to the same period in 2024. India's November palm oil imports increased by 4.6% to 630,000 tons, while soybean oil and sunflower oil imports decreased [7][8] Domestic Supply - Demand - On December 2, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil decreased by 45% compared to the previous day. The trading volume of soybean meal increased, and the national dynamic full - sample oil mill operating rate decreased by 2.90%. The national soybean oil port inventory increased by 1.2 million tons [14] Macro - Economic News International News - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 89.2%. The OECD predicts that the Fed will cut interest rates twice by the end of 2026. There are also data on API crude oil inventory in the US, CPI and unemployment rate in the Eurozone [16][17] Domestic News - On December 2, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was 7.0794, with the yuan depreciating. The central bank conducted 156.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 145.8 billion yuan. In November, the central bank's net investment in public treasury bond trading was 50 billion yuan [19] Capital Flows - On December 2, 2025, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 8.115 billion yuan. Commodity futures had a net outflow of 257 million yuan, while stock index futures had a net outflow of 7.923 billion yuan and treasury bond futures had a net inflow of 86 million yuan [22] Arbitrage Tracking - No relevant information provided

02 现货行情 【国富期货早间看点】SPPOMA马棕11月产量环比减0.19% USDA美豆当周出口检验920194吨符合预期 20251202 国富研究 国富研究 2025年12月2日 07:47 上海 01 隔夜行情 | | 收盘价 | 上日涨跌幅(%) | 隔夜涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 马棕油02(BMD) | 4064.00 | -0. 51 | -0. 71 | | 布伦特02(ICE) | 63. 33 | 1.62 | 0. 03 | | 美原油01(NYMEX) | 59.51 | 1.76 | 0.08 | | 美豆01(CBOT) | 1127.25 | -0. 88 | -0. 79 | | 美豆粕01(CBOT) | 314. 50 | -1.29 | -0.66 | | 美豆油01(CBOT) | 52. 32 | 0. 46 | 0. 10 | | | 最新价 | 涨跌幅(%) | 十日涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 美元指数 | 99. 40 | -0. 03 | | | 人民币(CNY/USD) ...

【国富期货早间看点】印尼12月毛棕榈油参考价926.14美元/吨 USDA美豆当周出口合计净增110.80万吨 20251201 国富研究 国富研究 2025年12月1日 07:20 上海 01 隔夜行情 | | 收盘价 | 上日涨跌幅(%) | 隔夜涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 马棕油02(BMD) | 4114.00 | 0. 61 | | | 布伦特02(ICE) | 62. 32 | -0.95 | -1.02 | | 美原油01(NYMEX) | 58. 48 | -0. 12 | -1.25 | | 美豆01(CBOT) | 1137.25 | 0. 44 | 0. 13 | | 美豆粕01(CBOT) | 318. 60 | -0. 65 | -0. 03 | | 美豆油01(CBOT) | 52.08 | 2.02 | 0. 85 | | | 地区 | CNF升贴水 | CNF升贴水变化 | CNF报价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | (美分/浦式耳) | | (美元/吨) | | 进口大豆报价 | 美 ...

【国富棕榈油研究周报】棕榈油价格上涨，关注产地天气情况 20251201 国富研究 国富研究 2025年12月1日 07:20 上海 油脂油料周度行情 油脂油料周度行情 目录 | í | 行情回顾 | | --- | --- | | 1. | BMD 马棕 1 | | 2. | DCE 棕榈油 | | | 二、产区天气 | | | 1. 棕榈油产区天气 | | = ( | 国际供需 | | 1. | GAPKI 9月报告 | | 2. | 马棕 11月预测 7 | | 3. | 其他重要资讯 | | 四、 | 国内供需 | | 1. | 进口利润 | | 2. | 棕榈油成交 | | 3. | 棕榈油库存 | | 五、 | 国内外油脂期现价格、价差情况 11 | | 1. | 基差、月差、品种差情况 | | 2. | 棕榈油仓单数量和期货持仓量 | | | 3. FOB 报价 14 | 2 公众号 · 国富研究 一、 行情回顾 1. BMD 马棕 图: BMD马棕行情图 图片来源:文华财经 外盘方面,截至11月28日,BMD马棕 02 合约收于 4114 令吉/吨,较 上周上涨 1.13%。本周马棕价格上涨, ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating in the given report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of CBOT soybeans rose this week, influenced by USDA's report of soybean sales to China and the increase in US soybean oil prices. However, the continuous expansion of the year - on - year decline in cumulative US soybean export sales still dragged down the price trend. Meanwhile, the increase in RINs price and US soybean oil price is expected to benefit US soybean crushing. Attention should be paid to the changes in US soybean export demand, US biodiesel policy, and weather conditions in South American soybean - producing areas [6]. - The price of CBOT soybean meal declined slightly this week. The postponement of the EU's "Zero - Deforestation Act" and higher - than - expected US soybean meal export sales limited the decline. The high - level US soybean crushing maintained sufficient supply of soybean meal, which may still suppress the price [11]. - The price of DCE soybean meal rose, supported by the increase in Brazilian soybean import costs due to the rise in Brazilian soybean premium quotes. However, the inventory accumulation of soybean meal in oil mills restricted the price increase. Attention should be paid to the weather in South American soybean - producing areas, domestic soybean procurement, and inventory changes [14]. - The price of CBOT soybean oil increased, driven by the rise in international competing vegetable oil prices and the increase in the use of US soybean oil in biodiesel production in September. Continuous attention should be paid to the changes in US biodiesel policy [18]. - The price of DCE soybean oil rose, affected by the increase in soybean import costs and domestic competing vegetable oil prices. However, the high - level inventory of soybean oil in oil mills suppressed the price to some extent. Attention should be paid to the arrival of imported soybeans, soybean crushing, and inventory changes [22]. 3. Summary According to the Directory I. Market Review 1. Soybeans - As of November 28, the CBOT soybean 01 contract closed at 1137.25 cents per bushel, up 0.95% from the previous week. The price fluctuated upward, affected by soybean sales to China and the increase in US soybean oil prices, but the decline in export sales dragged down the price [6]. 2. Soybean Meal - **External Market**: As of November 28, the CBOT soybean meal 01 contract closed at $318.6 per short ton, down 0.38% from the previous week. The price declined slightly, and the postponement of the EU's act and high - export sales limited the decline [11]. - **Domestic Market**: As of November 28, the DCE soybean meal 01 contract closed at 3044 yuan per ton, up 1.06% from the previous week. The price rose due to the increase in import costs, but inventory accumulation restricted the increase [14]. 3. Soybean Oil - **External Market**: As of November 28, the CBOT soybean oil 01 contract closed at 52.08 cents per pound, up 2.90% from the previous week. The price increase was driven by international competing vegetable oil prices and biodiesel usage [18]. - **Domestic Market**: As of November 28, the DCE soybean oil 01 contract closed at 8244 yuan per ton, up 0.66% from the previous week. The price fluctuated upward, affected by import costs and competing vegetable oil prices, but high inventory suppressed the price [22]. II.产区 Weather 1. Brazilian Soybean - Producing Areas Weather - In the past week (November 21 - 28), rainfall and temperature in southern Brazil were lower than normal. In the next week (November 30 - December 7), rainfall in the central - western region is expected to increase, while rainfall in the south will still be lower than normal, and the temperature will be at a normal level [24][26]. 2. Argentine Soybean - Producing Areas Weather - In the past week (November 21 - 28), there was almost no rain in Argentine soybean - producing areas, and the temperature was normal. In the next week (November 30 - December 7), rainfall is expected to be scarce, with only slightly higher rainfall in some northern areas, and the temperature will be higher than normal [30][32]. III. International Supply and Demand 1. US Soybeans - **Export Inspection & Export Sales**: The weekly export inspection volume of US soybeans decreased month - on - month but met expectations, and the year - on - year decline in cumulative volume continued to expand. As of November 20, 2025, the export inspection volume was 799,042 tons. The cumulative export inspection volume of US soybeans in the current crop year was 10,937,372 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 44.50%. The year - on - year decline in the cumulative export sales of US soybeans in the 25/26 season also expanded [37][38][39]. - **D4 RINs Price**: The RINs price rose this week. As of November 26, 2025, the US D4 RINs price was 106 cents, up 5.5 cents from November 21 [44]. 2. Brazilian Soybeans - **Soybean Yield Forecast**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 Brazilian soybean yield, ranging from 1.67683455 billion tons to 1.7876 billion tons [47]. - **Soybean Sowing**: As of November 22, the Brazilian soybean sowing rate was 78.0% (CONAB data), and as of November 20, it was 81% (AgRural data). The sowing progress in different states also varied [47]. - **Export Sales**: Anec lowered the forecast of Brazilian soybean exports in November to 4.4 million tons. As of the third week of November 2025, the cumulative export of Brazilian soybeans was 104.28 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.11% [52]. - **Soybean Premium**: As of the week of November 28, 2025, the Brazilian soybean premium quote increased [55]. - **Soybean Crushing Profit**: The Brazilian soybean crushing profit rose this week. As of November 28, it was $52.07 per ton [57]. 3. Argentine Soybeans - **Soybean Sowing**: As of the week of November 27, 2025, the Argentine soybean sowing progress reached 39% (SAGyP data), and as of November 26, it was 36.0% (Buenos Aires Grain Exchange data) [59][60]. - **Farmer Sales**: The weekly sales of Argentine farmers' 24/25 season soybeans increased month - on - month. As of the week of November 19, 2025, they had sold a certain amount of soybeans in different seasons [62][63]. - **Soybean Crushing Profit**: The Argentine soybean crushing profit slightly recovered this week. As of November 28, it was - $2.99 per ton [69]. IV. Domestic Supply and Demand 1. Soybean Oil Supply and Demand - **China's Imported Soybean Procurement Progress**: McDonald Pelz released the weekly procurement progress of China's imported soybeans on November 25, 2025 [72]. - **Port and Oil Mill Soybean Inventory**: As of November 21, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 9.425 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 501,000 tons. The oil mill soybean inventory in the 47th week was 7.1499 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 327,200 tons [74]. - **Imported Soybean Arrival and Crushing**: The arrival volume of imported soybeans increased, while the crushing volume and startup rate of oil mills decreased. In the 47th week, the arrival volume of imported soybeans was about 2.0475 million tons, and in the 48th week, the actual crushing volume was 2.2038 million tons [77]. - **Soybean Oil Transaction**: The weekly transaction volume of soybean oil decreased. As of the week of November 28, 2025, the total transaction volume was 75,400 tons [80]. - **Soybean Oil Production and Apparent Consumption**: The production of soybean oil in oil mills decreased, while the apparent consumption increased. In the 48th week, the soybean oil production was 407,700 tons, and in the 47th week, the apparent consumption was 400,500 tons [82]. - **Soybean Oil Inventory**: The commercial inventory of soybean oil in oil mills increased. As of November 21, 2025, the national key - area soybean oil commercial inventory was 1.1799 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 31,400 tons [85]. 2. Soybean Meal Supply and Demand - **Soybean Meal Production and Apparent Consumption**: The production of soybean meal in oil mills decreased, while the apparent consumption increased. As of the week of November 28, 2025, the soybean meal production was 1.741 million tons, and as of November 21, the apparent consumption was 1.6856 million tons [88]. - **Oil Mill Soybean Meal Inventory and Feed Mill Physical Inventory Days**: The soybean meal inventory in oil mills increased. As of November 21, 2025, it was 1.1515 million tons. The physical inventory days of feed mills increased. As of November 28, it was 8.17 days [90]. - **Soybean Meal Transaction and Pick - up**: The weekly transaction volume and pick - up volume of soybean meal decreased. As of the week of November 28, 2025, the transaction volume was 644,000 tons, and the pick - up volume was 940,212 tons [93]. - **Downstream Demand**: The losses of downstream hog - raising and piglet - purchasing for fattening continued to deepen. The hog ex - factory price and hog - grain ratio decreased [95]. - **Soybean Meal Warehouse Receipt Quantity**: As of November 28, the registered quantity of DCE soybean meal warehouse receipts was 0 hands [97]. V. Domestic and International Oil Futures and Spot Prices, and Spread Situations 1. Basis, Calendar Spread, and Variety Spread Situations - **Soybean Oil Basis and Calendar Spread**: The report shows the basis and calendar spread data of soybean oil in different regions and time periods [100][101][103]. - **Soybean Meal Basis and Calendar Spread**: The report shows the basis and calendar spread data of soybean meal in different regions and time periods [106][107]. - **Variety Spread**: The report shows the spread data between soybean oil and palm oil, rapeseed oil, and the ratio data between soybean oil/soybean meal and corn/soybean meal [109][110][111]. 2. FOB Quotes - The report shows the FOB quotes and spreads of soybean oil, Brazilian soybean meal, US soybean meal, and Argentine soybean meal [113][114][116]. 3. CFTC Positioning - The report shows the net long positions of CBOT soybean, soybean oil, and soybean meal managed funds [119][120][121].