2025/9/2 10:05 【国富期货早间看点】印尼1-7⽉棕榈油出⼝量增11% StoneX巴西25/26年⼤⾖产量料为1.782亿吨 20250902 【国富期货早间看点】印尼1-7月棕榈油出口量增11% StoneX巴西 25/26年大豆产量料为1.782亿吨 20250902 国富研究 国富研究 2025年09月02日 07:36 上海 01 隔夜行情 | | 收盘价 | 上日涨跌幅(%) | 隔夜涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 马棕油11(BMD) | | | | | 布伦特11(ICE) | 68. 16 | 1.04 | 0. 01 | | 美原油10(NYMEX) | 64. 61 | 0.94 | -0.12 | | 美豆11(CBOT) | | | | | 美豆粕12(CBOT) | | | | | 美豆油12(CBOT) | | | | | | 最新价 | 涨跌幅(%) 十日涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | | 美元指数 | 97.67 | -0. 17 | | 人民币(CNY/USD) | 7. 1072 | 0.06 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The export volume of Malaysian palm oil products from August 1 - 25, 2025, increased by 36.41% compared to the same period last month. The cool weather in the US Midwest will continue until next week, with several precipitation events expected, but dry conditions in some areas may lead to a decline in crop yields. The futures market had a net capital inflow of 12.44 billion yuan on August 27, 2025, with a net outflow in commodity futures and an inflow in stock index futures [1][5][7][23] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 01 Overnight Market Quotes - The closing prices and percentage changes of various commodities such as Malaysian palm oil, Brent crude oil, and US soybeans are presented. The exchange rates of the US dollar index and multiple currencies are also provided [1] 02 Spot Market Quotes - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, and DCE soybean meal are given. CNF quotes and CNF premium changes for imported soybeans are also included [2] 03 Important Fundamental Information - Production Area Weather - The future weather outlook for US soybean - producing states from September 1 - 5 shows generally low temperatures and above - median precipitation. The cool weather in the US Midwest will continue until next week, with precipitation expected, but dry conditions in the south and east may cause a decline in crop yields [3][5] - International Supply and Demand - Malaysian palm oil exports from August 1 - 25, 2025, increased by 36.41% compared to the same period last month. The Malaysian palm oil industry calls for the government to reinvest windfall profit tax revenue and adjust the tax threshold. Ghana plans to narrow the gap between palm oil production and consumption. Analysts predict US soybean, soybean meal, and soybean oil export sales. Brazilian farmers are preparing for the 2025/26 planting season, and the soybean harvest in Goiás state in 2024/25 reached a record high. Low soybean meal prices have affected South American crushing margins. Canadian rapeseed crushing data for July 2025 are provided, and Australia's rapeseed production forecast is given. The Baltic Dry Index rose for the third consecutive day [7][9][10][11][12] - Domestic Supply and Demand - On August 27, 2025, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil increased by 6% compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume of soybean meal decreased, and the operating rate of oil mills declined. The "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and the "Vegetable Basket Product Wholesale Price Index" increased, while the average pork price decreased [15] 04 Macroeconomic News - International News - The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 11.3%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 88.7%. US mortgage application and oil reserve data are provided. The EU plans to accelerate the legislative process to fully cancel tariffs on US industrial products [18] - Domestic News - On August 27, 2025, the US dollar/renminbi exchange rate was lowered. The central bank conducted 379.9 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 236.1 billion yuan. In July, the operating income of large - scale industrial enterprises increased year - on - year, and the profit decline narrowed [20] 05 Capital Flows - On August 27, 2025, the futures market had a net capital inflow of 12.44 billion yuan, with a net outflow of 3.107 billion yuan in commodity futures and a net inflow of 15.546 billion yuan in stock index futures [23] 06 Arbitrage Tracking - Not mentioned in the provided content

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a comprehensive overview of the futures market, including overnight and spot prices, important fundamental information, macro news, fund flows, and arbitrage tracking for various commodities such as palm oil, soybeans, and crude oil. It also analyzes the impact of weather conditions on crop yields and the supply - demand dynamics in both international and domestic markets. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overnight Quotes - The closing prices and daily/overnight price changes of various futures contracts are presented, including Malaysian palm oil, Brent crude oil, US crude oil, US soybeans, and related products. For example, the price of Malaysian palm oil 11 (BMD) closed at 4451.00, with a daily decline of 0.51% and an overnight decline of 0.43% [1]. - The latest prices and price changes of major currency pairs are also given, such as the US dollar index, Chinese yuan, Malaysian ringgit, etc. For instance, the US dollar index was at 98.21, down 0.22% [1]. 3.2 Spot Quotes - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE palm oil 2601, DCE soybean oil 2601, and DCE soybean meal 2601 in different regions are provided. For example, in the north of China, the spot price of DCE palm oil 2601 is 9620, with a basis of 100 and no change from the previous day [2]. - CNF quotes and CNF premium changes for imported soybeans from different origins are presented. The CNF premium for Brazilian soybeans is 278 cents per bushel, and the CNF quote is 487 dollars per ton [2]. 3.3 Important Fundamental Information 3.3.1 Weather Conditions - In the US, the future weather outlook for soybean - producing states from August 31 to September 4 shows that most areas will have lower - than - normal temperatures and precipitation close to or above the median. In the Midwest, a cold front has led to lower temperatures and some precipitation is expected, but dry conditions in the south and east may cause a certain degree of yield decline [4][6]. - In Indonesia and Malaysia, the temperature will be suitable in the next two weeks, and the total rainfall will be close to or slightly above normal. However, some areas may experience lower - than - normal rainfall, which could have a negative impact on palm oil crops [7]. 3.3.2 International Supply and Demand - From August 1 - 25, 2025, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 1.21% compared to the same period last month, with a 3.26% decrease in yield per unit and a 0.4% increase in oil extraction rate [9]. - Malaysia is seeking to exempt crude and refined palm kernel oil from sales and service tax (SST). The US has agreed in principle to exclude Indonesian palm oil, cocoa, and rubber from the 19% tariff, but no timeline has been set [9]. - India's IVPA urges the government to cancel tax - credit refund restrictions. Pakistan is expected to import about 1.1 million tons of soybeans from the US worth 500 million dollars [10]. - A Brazilian federal judge has temporarily suspended a ban on the "Amazon soybean ban" plan. Anec estimates Brazil's soybean exports in August to be 8.9 million tons and soybean meal exports to be 2.13 million tons [11]. - EU's imports of palm oil, soybeans, and rapeseed in the 2025/26 season are lower than the same period last year. Russia will resume export tariffs on sunflower oil and its by - products from September [11][12]. - The Baltic Dry Index rose to a more than one - week high due to increased demand for all types of ships [13]. 3.3.3 Domestic Supply and Demand - On August 26, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil decreased by 60% compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume of soybean meal decreased by 0.20 million tons, with a decrease in spot trading volume and an increase in far - month basis trading volume [14]. - The开机 rate of oil mills in China decreased by 0.10% to 68.85%. The port inventory of soybean oil increased by 410,000 tons compared to the previous week [14]. - The "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and the "Vegetable Basket Product Wholesale Price Index" increased, while the average price of pork decreased by 0.5% [14]. 3.4 Macro News 3.4.1 International News - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 12.2%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 87.8% [14]. - The US Redbook commercial retail sales annual rate increased to 6.5% in the week ending August 23. The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index in August was - 7, better than expected [15]. - The US Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index in August was 97.4, slightly higher than expected. The durable goods orders monthly rate in July was - 2.8%, better than expected [15]. 3.4.2 Domestic News - On August 26, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was 7.1188, up 27 points. The People's Bank of China conducted 405.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 47.45 billion yuan [19][20]. 3.5 Fund Flows - On August 26, 2025, the futures market experienced a net outflow of 22.781 billion yuan in funds, including 3.489 billion yuan from commodity futures (714 million yuan from agricultural product futures, 878 million yuan from chemical futures, 1.527 billion yuan from black - series futures, and 370 million yuan from metal futures) and 19.292 billion yuan from stock index futures [23]. - The fund flows of major varieties are presented, with gold having an inflow of 392 million yuan and palm oil having an outflow of 251 million yuan [22]. 3.6 Arbitrage Tracking No relevant content provided.

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report presents a comprehensive overview of the futures market, including overnight and spot market conditions, important fundamental information, macro - economic news, fund flows, and arbitrage tracking. It focuses on commodities such as palm oil, soybeans, and related products, as well as currency exchange rates and central bank policies [1][2][16]. 3. Summary by Directory Overnight Market Conditions - Overnight closing prices and price changes of various futures contracts are presented, including palm oil, crude oil, soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil. Currency exchange rates such as the US dollar index and various currency pairs are also provided [1]. Spot Market Conditions - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, and DCE soybean meal are given for different regions. CNF quotes and CNF premium changes for imported soybeans are also included [2]. Important Fundamental Information - **Weather Conditions** - US soybean - producing states are expected to have mostly lower - than - normal temperatures and precipitation close to or above the median from August 27th to 31st. The Midwest had rain and temperature drops over the weekend, and the 6 - 10 - day outlook shows a mix of dry and rainy conditions with lower - than - normal temperatures. Brazil's 9 - month rainfall pattern is weak, and the region will become warmer [3][5][6]. - **International Supply and Demand** - Malaysia's palm oil production from August 1 - 20 increased by 3.03% compared to the same period last month, and exports increased by 37.19%. CBOT futures contracts had changes in long and short positions. Pro Farmer predicts high yields for US corn and soybeans. Brazil's 2025/2026 soybean production is expected to increase by 3%, and Argentina's 2024/25 soybean production and planting area are also expected to rise. Canada's rapeseed production is expected to increase by 12.9% [9][11]. - **Domestic Supply and Demand** - On August 22nd, the total trading volume of domestic soybean oil and palm oil increased by 3% compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume of soybean meal decreased, and the oil - mill operating rate decreased slightly. The self - breeding and self - raising pig farming profit increased, while the profit from purchasing piglets remained in the red. The "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and the "Vegetable Basket Product Wholesale Price Index" decreased slightly [13][14]. Macro - economic News - **International News** - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September is 91.1%. Powell's speech at Jackson Hole opened the door for a September rate cut. Canada decided to cancel some retaliatory tariffs on US goods [16]. - **Domestic News** - On August 22nd, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was adjusted upwards. The central bank conducted 3612 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, achieving a net injection of 1232 billion yuan on that day and 13652 billion yuan for the week. On August 25th, the central bank will conduct 6000 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF operations. From January to July 2025, the country absorbed 4673.4 billion yuan of foreign investment [18][19]. Fund Flows - On August 22nd, the futures market had a net inflow of 144.8 billion yuan. Commodity futures had a net outflow of 16.11 billion yuan, while stock - index futures had a net inflow of 160.91 billion yuan. The report also lists the fund flows of various futures contracts [22]. Arbitrage Tracking No specific content is provided in the given report for this section.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents a comprehensive overview of the agricultural and energy futures markets, including overnight and spot market conditions, important fundamental information, macro - economic news, and capital flow data. It also provides insights into international and domestic supply - demand dynamics for various commodities such as palm oil, soybeans, and grains. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Overnight Market Conditions - Overnight closing prices and price changes of various futures contracts are provided, including BMD palm oil, ICE Brent crude, NYMEX WTI crude, CBOT soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil. For example, BMD palm oil 11 closed at 4529.00 with a previous - day decline of 0.51% and an overnight increase of 0.71% [1]. - Exchange rate data for major currencies are also presented, such as the US dollar index, CNY/USD, MYR/USD, etc. For instance, the US dollar index was at 98.22 with a decline of 0.05% [1]. 3.2 Spot Market Conditions - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes for DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, and DCE soybean meal in different regions are given. For example, DCE palm oil 2601 in North China had a spot price of 9820 with a basis of 100 and no change in basis from the previous day [2]. - CNF quotes and CNF premium changes for imported soybeans from different origins are also included, with Brazilian soybeans having a CNF premium of 307 cents per bushel and a CNF quote of 495 dollars per ton [2]. 3.3 Important Fundamental Information 3.3.1 Production Area Weather - The future weather outlook for US soybean - producing states from August 25 - 29 indicates that temperatures will be below normal and precipitation will mostly be near to below the median. Some parts of the US Midwest will experience rainfall and temperature drops [4][6]. 3.3.2 International Supply - Demand - Malaysian palm oil exports from August 1 - 20 increased by 17.5% according to AmSpec and 13.61% according to ITS compared to the same period last month [7]. - Indonesia plans to increase its crude palm oil production from 48.2 million tons in 2024 to 60 million tons by 2030 [8]. - Nebraska's soybean pod count is at a 22 - year high, while Indiana's is slightly lower than 2024 but higher than the three - year average [9]. 3.3.3 Domestic Supply - Demand - On August 20, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was 79,066 tons, a 152% increase from the previous day. The trading volume of soybean meal was 114,900 tons, an increase of 6,800 tons from the previous day [14]. - China's palm oil imports in July 2025 decreased by 47.22% month - on - month and 46.79% year - on - year. Soybean imports decreased by 4.86% month - on - month but increased by 18.39% year - on - year. Rapeseed imports decreased by 4.61% month - on - month and 56.63% year - on - year [14][15]. 3.4 Macro - economic News 3.4.1 International News - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 18.1%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 81.9% [16]. - The Eurozone's CPI annual rate in July was 2%, and the monthly rate was 0%. The Indonesian central bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points [17]. 3.4.2 Domestic News - On August 20, the US dollar/CNY exchange rate was 7.1384, up 25 points (CNY depreciation). The Chinese central bank conducted 616 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 497.5 billion yuan [19]. 3.5 Capital Flow - On August 20, 2025, the futures market had a net capital inflow of 3.705 billion yuan. Commodity futures had a net capital outflow of 12.337 billion yuan, while stock index futures had a net capital inflow of 16.042 billion yuan [23]. 3.6 Arbitrage Tracking No relevant content provided.

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints The report presents a comprehensive overview of the futures market, including overnight and spot prices, important fundamental information, macro news, and fund flow. It also provides updates on crop conditions, international and domestic supply - demand situations, and regulatory developments. Summary by Directory 01 Overnight行情 - Overnight prices and percentage changes are provided for various futures including palm oil, crude oil, soybeans, and related products. Currency exchange rates and their changes are also given [1]. 02 Spot行情 - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes are presented for DCE palm oil, DCE豆油, and DCE豆粕 in different regions. CNF quotes and relevant information for imported soybeans are also included [2]. 03 Important Fundamental Information 产区天气 - US soybean - producing states will have below - normal temperatures and mostly near - to above - median precipitation from August 24th to 28th. Cool and dry weather is expected in the US Midwest in late August, with a 20 - 40 mm rain deficit in 10 - 15 days, and a possible warm and moderately rainy pattern in early September [3][5]. 国际供需 - Malaysian palm oil prices are expected to stay above 4300 ringgit. Pro Farmer estimates soybean pod numbers in Ohio and South Dakota. USDA reports soybean exports, and the 2025/26 Brazilian soybean planting area may increase by 1.2% - 2.9%. Brazilian 8 - month soybean and soybean meal exports are expected to rise. A Brazilian regulatory body plans to investigate the "Soybean Moratorium Plan". EU 2025/26 imports of palm oil, soybeans, soybean meal, and rapeseed are lower than last year. Australian rapeseed exports have declined, and the Baltic Dry Index has dropped [7][9][12]. 国内供需 - On August 19th, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil increased by 170% compared to the previous day. The trading volume of soybean meal decreased, and the oil - mill startup rate dropped slightly. China's refined edible vegetable oil production in July increased by 4.0% year - on - year. National soybean oil port inventory increased. China's feed production in July decreased slightly from the previous month but increased by 5.95% year - on - year. Agricultural product prices showed some changes [13][14]. 04 Macro要闻 国际要闻 - US retail sales, new home construction, and API crude oil inventory data are reported. The euro - zone's current account balance increased. Malaysia's economic growth may slow due to US tariffs [15]. 国内要闻 - The US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate increased on August 19th. The Chinese central bank conducted a net injection of 4657 billion yuan through reverse repurchase operations. China's fiscal revenue from January to July increased slightly year - on - year, and securities transaction stamp duty increased significantly [17]. 05资金流向 - On August 19th, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 157.57 billion yuan, with 27.53 billion yuan from commodity futures and 130.04 billion yuan from stock - index futures. Agricultural product futures had a net inflow, while other sectors had net outflows [19][20]. 06套利跟踪 No relevant information provided.

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints The report presents a comprehensive overview of the overnight and spot market conditions of multiple commodities, including palm oil, soybeans, and related products, along with important fundamental information on weather, international and domestic supply - demand, macroeconomic news, and capital flows in the market. It details price changes, production, consumption, and trade data to assist in understanding the market trends of these commodities [1][2][8]. Summary by Directory 1. Overnight Market Conditions - Overnight closing prices and percentage changes of various commodities such as Malaysian palm oil, Brent crude, US crude, US soybeans, and related products are provided. Also, the latest prices and percentage changes of currency indices and exchange rates are given [1]. 2. Spot Market Conditions - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, and DCE soybean meal in different regions are presented. CNF quotes and changes of imported soybeans from different origins are also included [2]. 3. Important Fundamental Information 3.1产区Weather - US soybean - producing states' future weather (August 20 - 24) shows that most areas will have above - normal temperatures and half of the regions will have precipitation close to the median. The Midwest will experience temperature increases and varying precipitation patterns, which may impact crops differently [4][6]. 3.2 International Supply - Demand - Malaysian palm oil exports from August 1 - 15 increased significantly compared to the same period in July according to AmSpec and ITS. Indonesia will crack down on illegal palm plantation activities. CFTC持仓 reports show changes in positions of various agricultural products. North American field surveys on corn and soybeans will be conducted. NOPA data indicates US soybean crushing and soybean oil inventory in July. Canadian and Ukrainian agricultural production and harvest progress are also reported. The Baltic Dry Bulk Freight Index shows different trends for different types of ships [8][9][10]. 3.3 Domestic Supply - Demand - On August 15, the trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil decreased significantly compared to the previous day. The trading volume of soybean meal also changed, and the oil mill's开机 rate decreased slightly. The actual soybean crushing volume in the 33rd week was lower than expected. Pig - raising profits and agricultural product wholesale prices showed certain changes [14][15]. 4. Macroeconomic News 4.1 International News - US economic data such as inflation expectations, manufacturing index, consumer confidence index, retail sales, import prices, industrial output, and business inventory are reported [17]. 4.2 Domestic News - The RMB exchange rate, central bank's open - market operations, national economic data, monetary policy report, and a WTO lawsuit against Canada are presented [19]. 5. Capital Flows - The capital flow data of major futures varieties on August 15 are provided, including the net inflow and outflow of funds in different types of futures such as commodity futures and stock index futures [21][22]. 6. Arbitrage Tracking No relevant content provided.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View - The inventory build - up of Malaysian palm oil in July was lower than expected, leading to an increase in palm oil prices [1] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情回顾 - The report covers BMD Malaysian palm oil, DGE palm oil, palm oil产区 weather, international supply - demand, domestic supply - demand, and domestic and international palm oil futures - spot prices and spreads [4] 3.2 International Supply and Demand - **MPOB July Report**: No detailed content provided - **India SEA July Report**: No detailed content provided - **Malaysian Palm Oil August Forecast**: No detailed content provided - **Other Important Information**: No detailed content provided - **Export Data**: - According to AmSpec on 2025/8/15, Malaysian exports were 696,425, a 21.3% increase from the previous month and a 16.14% increase from the same period last year. Exports of different types of palm oil had varying trends, with 24 - degree palm oil up 54.23% month - on - month and 44 - degree palm oil up 63.24% month - on - month [25] - According to another data source on 2025/8/15, Malaysian exports were 724,191, a 16.5% increase from the previous month and a 13.60% increase from the same period last year. Exports to major markets such as the EU, India and the sub - continent increased, while exports to China decreased by 76.31% month - on - month [25] - According to SES on 2025/8/10, Malaysian exports were 339,143, a 65.25% increase from the previous month and a 30.77% decrease from the same period last year. Exports to India increased significantly by 137.04% month - on - month, while exports to China decreased by 25.43% month - on - month [27] 3.3 Domestic Supply and Demand - **Import Profit**: No detailed content provided - **Palm Oil Transactions**: No detailed content provided - **Palm Oil Inventory**: No detailed content provided 3.4 Domestic and International Palm Oil Futures - Spot Prices, Spreads - **Basis, Monthly Spread, Variety Spread**: No detailed content provided - **Palm Oil Warehouse Receipt Quantity and Futures Open Interest**: No detailed content provided - **FOB Quote**: No detailed content provided

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes the futures market, including overnight and spot market conditions, important fundamental information (such as weather, international and domestic supply - demand), macro - news, and capital flows. It presents data on various commodities like palm oil, soybeans, and their related products, as well as currency exchange rates and shipping freight indices. 3. Summary by Directory 01 Overnight Market - Overnight closing prices, daily and overnight price changes of various futures contracts are presented, including palm oil, Brent crude, US crude, soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil. Currency exchange rates and their changes are also provided [1]. 02 Spot Market - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, and DCE soybean meal in different regions are given. CNF quotes and CNF premium changes for imported soybeans from different origins are also included [2]. 03 Important Fundamental Information -产区天气 - - US soybean - producing states are expected to have above - normal temperatures and mostly above - median precipitation from August 17th to 21st. The US Midwest will have more precipitation in the future, with moderate precipitation opportunities in the next 7 - 10 days, which can benefit crops but may also cause flooding problems [5][8]. -国际供需 - - Global 2025/26 palm oil production, exports are expected to be flat compared to last month's estimates, while ending stocks are slightly revised down. Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 10 increased by 65.25% compared to the same period last month. Analysts expect Malaysia's palm oil inventory to remain high. India's 2024/25 soybean oil imports are expected to soar by 60%, while palm oil imports may drop to a five - year low. USDA's estimates for US 2025/26 soybean harvest area, yield, production, and ending stocks are different from market expectations. Brazil's August soybean and soybean meal export volume forecasts are revised upwards. EU's 2025/26 imports of palm oil, soybeans, soybean meal, and rapeseed are lower than last year [10][12][14]. -国内供需 - - On August 12th, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil increased by 8% compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume of soybean meal increased, and the oil - mill operating rate decreased slightly. The national soybean oil port inventory increased. The estimated 2024/25 edible vegetable oil imports are revised down, mainly due to the high price of palm oil [17]. 04 Macro - News -国际要闻 - - The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 6.6%, with a 93.4% chance of a 25 - basis - point cut. US economic data such as CPI, NFIB small - business confidence index, and retail sales are reported. The US Treasury Secretary suggests a 50 - basis - point rate cut in September. OPEC adjusts its 2026 global crude oil demand growth forecast. The Eurozone's ZEW economic sentiment and current situation indices change [20][21]. -国内要闻 - - On August 12th, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate increased (yuan depreciated). The central bank conducted 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with a net withdrawal of funds. China initiates anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed imports. A personal consumer loan fiscal subsidy policy is introduced [23]. 05 Capital Flows - On August 12, 2025, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 9.826 billion yuan. Commodity futures had a net inflow of 1.858 billion yuan, while stock - index futures had a net outflow of 11.684 billion yuan. Capital flows for various futures varieties are presented [25][26].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a comprehensive overview of the futures market, including overnight and spot prices, important fundamental information, macro news, and capital flows. Key events include Malaysia's increase in the September export tax on crude palm oil, expected low sunflower seed production in Ukraine, and potential impacts of weather on US crops. [1][9][12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Market Quotes - The closing prices and percentage changes of various futures, including Malaysian palm oil, Brent crude, US crude oil, US soybeans, and others, are presented. Currency exchange rates such as the US dollar index and several other currencies against the US dollar are also provided. [1] Spot Market Quotes - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes for DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, and DCE soybean meal in different regions are given. CNF premiums and quotes for imported soybeans from different origins are also included. [2] Important Fundamental Information Weather in Production Areas - US soybean - producing states are expected to have higher - than - normal temperatures and mostly median precipitation from August 18th to 22nd. A slow - moving front in the US Midwest will bring rain and temperature changes, which may benefit some crops but also cause flooding in some areas. [5][8] International Supply - related News - Malaysia has raised the reference price and export tax of crude palm oil for September. Indonesia has saved at least $3.68 billion in foreign exchange through the use of palm - based biodiesel. Forecasts for US soybean, soybean meal, and soybean oil export sales are provided. Brazil's soybean, soybean meal, and corn export volumes for a specific period are predicted. Argentina's soybean sales data is released. Ukraine's rapeseed and sunflower seed production is expected to decline. The Baltic Dry Index has risen. [9][10][11][12] Domestic Supply and Demand - On August 13th, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil increased, while the trading volume of soybean meal decreased. The national oil mill operating rate declined. Price changes of various agricultural products and livestock products are reported. [14][15][16] Macro News International News - Market expectations for the Fed's interest rate cuts in September and October are high. The US Treasury Secretary believes the Fed should cut rates. US mortgage application and oil reserve data are provided. The IEA has lowered global oil demand growth forecasts. UAE's refined oil inventory has decreased. [18][19] Domestic News - The US dollar/renminbi exchange rate has decreased (renminbi appreciation). The central bank has conducted reverse repurchase operations and achieved a net withdrawal of funds. China's July financial statistics show the growth of M2, M1, and M0. [20] Capital Flows - On August 13th, the futures market had a net capital inflow of 27.391 billion yuan, with 5.129 billion yuan in commodity futures (including inflows in agricultural and chemical futures and outflows in black - series futures) and 22.262 billion yuan in stock index futures. [24]