Guo Fu Qi Huo

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国富豆系研究周报:进口大豆到港预期充足,豆粕价格下跌-20250506
Guo Fu Qi Huo· 2025-05-06 07:48
2025/5/6 09:56 【国富⾖系研究周报】进⼝⼤⾖到港预期充⾜,⾖粕价格下跌 20250506 | í 行情回顾 | | --- | | 1. 大豆 | | 2. 豆粉 …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………3 | | 3. 豆油 | | 二、产区天气 | | 1. 美国大豆产区天气……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………6 | | 三、 国际供需 . | | 1. 美国大豆 | | 2. 巴西大豆 | | 3. 阿根廷大豆 . | | 国内供需 …………………………………………………………………………………… 20 四、 | | 1. 豆油供需 | | 2. 豆粕供需 | | 五、 国内外油脂期现价格、价差情况……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… ...
产地供应预期转宽松,棕榈油价格下行
Guo Fu Qi Huo· 2025-05-06 07:10
2025/5/6 09:55 【国富棕榈油研究周报】产地供应预期转宽松,棕榈油价格下⾏ 20250506 【国富棕榈油研究周报】产地供应预期转宽松,棕榈油价格下行 20250506 2025年05月06日 07:47 上海 https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/3x1d-Yrn_rLIKwOPjo8gYg 1/16 | í | 行情回顾 | | --- | --- | | 1. | BMD 马棕 | | 2. | DCE 棕榈油 | | í i | 产区天气 . | | | 1. 棕榈油产区天气 | | ιί | 国际供需 | | 1. | 马棕4月预测 | | 2. | 其他重要资讯 | | 四、 | 国内供需 | | | 1. 进口利润 | | 2. | 棕榈油成交 8 | | 3. | 棕榈油库存 | | 五、 | 国内外油脂期现价格、价差情况 | | 1. | 基差、月差、品种差情况 | | 2. | 棕榈油仓单数量和期货持仓量 | | 3. | FOB 报价 ... | https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/3x1d-Yrn_rLIKwOPjo8gYg 2/16 20 ...
国富期货早间看点:UOB下调毛棕榈油均价预估至4200马币,Anec巴西大豆4月出口料为1380万吨-20250430
Guo Fu Qi Huo· 2025-04-30 09:04
2025/4/30 09:50 【国富期货早间看点】UOB下调⽑棕榈油均价预估⾄4200 Anec 4 1380 20250430 【国富期货早间看点】UOB下调毛棕榈油均价预估至4200马币 Anec巴西大豆4月出口料为1380万吨 20250430 2025年04月30日 07:30 上海 01 隔夜行情 | | 收盘价 | 上日流跌幅(%) | 隔夜流跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 马棕油07(BMD) | 3888. 00 | -0. 53 | -1. 32 | | 布伦特07(ICE) | 63.01 | -2.36 | -0.76 | | 美原油06(NYMEX) | 60. 14 | -2.83 | -0. 97 | | 美豆07 (CBOT) | 1052. 50 | -0. 82 | 0. 29 | | 美豆箱07(CBOT) | 298. 20 | 0. 74 | 0. 88 | | 美豆油07(CBOT) | 49.32 | -2.26 | 0. 12 | | | 最新价 | 漆跌幅(%) 十日涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | | ...
国富期货早间看点:USDA美豆播种率为18%高于市场预期,CONAB巴西大豆收割率为94.8%-20250429
Guo Fu Qi Huo· 2025-04-29 06:35
2025/4/29 09:58 【国富期货早间看点】USDA 18% CONAB 94.8% 20250429 【国富期货早间看点】USDA美豆播种率为18%高于市场预期 CONAB巴西大豆收割率为94.8% 20250429 2025年04月29日 07:35 上海 01 隔夜行情 | | 收盘价 | 上日流跌幅(%) | 隔夜流跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 马棕油07(BMD) | 3993.00 | -2.39 | 0. 81 | | 布伦特07(ICE) | 64. 53 | -1.97 | -0. 45 | | 美原油06(NYMEX) | 61.89 | -2.03 | -0. 39 | | 美豆07 (CBOT) | 1061. 25 | 0. 19 | 0.57 | | 美豆箱07(CBOT) | 296. 00 | -0. 77 | 0. 44 | | 美豆油07(CBOT) | 50. 46 | 1.53 | 0.56 | | | 最新价 | 流跌幅(%) 十日漆跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | | 美元指数 | 98. 940 | ...
【早间看点】MPOA马棕4月前20日产量增加19.88%Anec巴西大豆4月出口料降至1430万吨-20250424
Guo Fu Qi Huo· 2025-04-24 10:52
2025/4/24 14:00 【国富期货早间看点】MPOA 4 20 19.88% Anec 4 1430 20250424 【国富期货早间看点】MPOA马棕4月前20日产量增加19.88% Anec巴西大豆4月出口料降至1430万吨 20250424 2025年04月24日 07:30 上海 01 隔夜行情 | | 收盘价 | 上日流跌幅(%) | 隔夜流跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 马棕油07(BMD) | 4024. 00 | 1.71 | -0. 27 | | 布伦特06(ICE) | 66. 14 | -2.48 | -0. 18 | | 美原油06(NYMEX) | 62.28 | -1.98 | -0. 34 | | 美豆07 (CBOT) | 1051.50 | 0. 50 | -0. 31 | | 美豆箱07(CBOT) | 298. 70 | -0. 30 | -0. 60 | | 美豆油07(CBOT) | 48. 47 | 0.98 | 0. 31 | | | 最新价 | 流跌幅(%) 十日漆跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | ...
【早间看点】SPPOMA马棕4月前20日产量增长9.11% USDA美豆播种进度达8%快于预期-20250422
Guo Fu Qi Huo· 2025-04-22 05:39
2025/4/22 09:32 【国富期货早间看点】SPPOMA 4 20 9.11% USDA 8% 20250422 【国富期货早间看点】SPPOMA马棕4月前20日产量增长9.11% USDA美豆播种进度达8%快于预期 20250422 2025年04月22日 07:22 上海 01 隔夜行情 | | 收盘价 | 上日 涨跌幅(%) | 隔夜流跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 马棕油07(BMD) | 3876. 00 | -1.61 | -0. 89 | | 布伦特06(ICE) | 66. 47 | -2. 03 | 0. 42 | | 美原油06(NYMEX) | 62. 69 | -1.66 | 0. 58 | | 美豆07 (CBOT) | 1041.50 | -0. 50 | -0. 12 | | 美豆箱07(CBOT) | 300. 40 | -0.92 | -0.56 | | 美豆油07(CBOT) | 48. 27 | -0. 10 | 0.56 | | | 最新价 | 漆跌幅(%) 十日漆跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | | 美元 ...
国富期货早间看点-20250422
Guo Fu Qi Huo· 2025-04-22 05:39
2025/4/22 09:34 【国富期货早间看点】ITS 4 20 11.9% USDA美⾖种植区⼲旱占⽐约为23% 20250421 【国富期货早间看点】ITS马棕4月前20日出口增长11.9% USDA美 豆种植区干旱占比约为23% 20250421 2025年04月21日 07:21 上海 01 隔夜行情 | | 收盘价 | 上日涨跌幅(%) | 隔夜漲跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 马棕油07(BMD) | 3975.00 | -0. 92 | | | 布伦特06(ICE) | | | | | 美原油06(NYMEX) | | | | | 美豆07(CBOT) | | | | | 美豆箱07(CBOT) | | | | | 美豆油07(CBOT) | | | | | | 最新价 | 涨跌幅(%) 十日涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | | 美元指数 | 99.220 | -0. 21 | | 人民币(CNY/USD) | 7. 2069 | -0. 02 | | 马来林吉特(MYR/USD) | 4. 3910 | 0. 04 | | 印尼卢比 ...
【早间看点】SPPOMA马棕4月前15日产量增加3.97% IBGE巴西大豆产量预估环比下调0.1%-20250418
Guo Fu Qi Huo· 2025-04-18 05:18
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The MPOB March palm oil supply - demand report has a neutral impact, and palm oil prices are expected to be weakly volatile in the short term due to factors such as tariff policy changes and supply expectations [20]. - The USDA April supply - demand report has a neutral impact on soybeans. The price of US soybeans may be boosted to some extent, but it is expected to fluctuate more sharply in the short term due to policy uncertainties [21][22]. Summary by Directory 01 Overnight Quotes - The closing price of BMD crude palm oil futures contract 07 was 4034.00, with a previous - day decline of 0.91% and an overnight increase of 0.67%. Brent crude oil contract 06 closed at 66.06, with a previous - day increase of 1.87% and an overnight increase of 0.43%. US crude oil contract 06 closed at 61.94, with a previous - day increase of 1.59% and an overnight increase of 0.19% [1]. - The latest price of the US dollar index was 99.270, down 0.86%. The exchange rate of CNY/USD was 7.2133, up 0.05%. The exchange rate of MYR/USD was 4.3922, down 0.01% [1]. 02 Spot Quotes - For DCE palm oil 2505, the spot price in North China was 9330, with a basis of 700 and no change from the previous day. In East China, the spot price was 9050, with a basis of 420 and no change [2]. - For DCE soybean oil 2509, the spot price in Shandong and Jiangsu was 7990, with a basis of 328 and a decrease of 32 from the previous day. In Guangzhou, the spot price was 8030, with a basis of 368 and a decrease of 32 [2]. Weather Forecast - From April 21 - 25, temperatures and precipitation in major US soybean - producing states are generally higher than normal levels. The temperature in the Midwest fluctuates, and wet conditions in the south may delay sowing [3][5]. - The weather in Argentina is dry, and soybeans and corn continue to mature. A front will enter later this week, making the weather drier [6]. Supply and Demand Data - From April 1 - 15, 2025, Malaysian palm oil production increased by 3.97%, and exports increased by 7.05% compared to the same period last month. Indonesia's 2025/26 palm oil production is expected to reach 47 million tons [7]. - As of April 10, the estimated net increase in US soybean export sales was between 100,000 and 950,000 tons. Brazil's 2025 soybean planting area is expected to be 47.362525 million hectares, and the production is estimated to be 1.64262448 billion tons [8]. Domestic Supply and Demand - On April 16, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was 79,000 tons, a significant increase from the previous day. The trading volume of soybean meal decreased, and the operating rate of oil mills increased [13]. - As of April 15, the port inventory of soybean oil was 687,000 tons, a decrease from the previous week [13]. Macro News - Internationally, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in May is 83.2%. The US 2 - month business inventory monthly rate was 0.2%, and the 4 - month NAHB housing market index was 40 [14]. - Domestically, on April 16, the US dollar/CNY exchange rate was 7.2133, up 37 points. China's GDP in the first quarter increased by 5.4% year - on - year [18]. Key Information Analysis - The MPOB March palm oil report showed an increase in ending inventory, production, imports, and consumption. The impact on the market is neutral, and palm oil prices are expected to be weakly volatile [20]. - The USDA April soybean report adjusted US and Brazilian soybean data, with a neutral impact on the market. US soybean prices may fluctuate more sharply in the short term [21][22]. Capital Flows - On April 16, 2025, the futures market had a net capital inflow of 6.976 billion yuan, including a net inflow of 2.279 billion yuan in commodity futures and 4.697 billion yuan in stock index futures [26].
【早间看点】印尼生产商希望削减对美国出口关税USDA美豆当周出口销售73.66万吨符合预期-20250418
Guo Fu Qi Huo· 2025-04-18 05:01
2025/4/18 09:49 【国富期货早间看点】印尼⽣产商希望削减对美国出⼝关税 USDA 73.66 20250418 【国富期货早间看点】印尼生产商希望削减对美国出口关税 USDA 美豆当周出口销售73.66万吨符合预期 20250418 2025年04月18日 07:56 上海 | | | | | 收盘价 | 上日涨跌幅(%) | 隔夜涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 马棕油07(BMD) | 4041.00 | 0.12 | 0. 72 | | 布伦特06(ICE) | 67. 85 | 2. 71 | 1.56 | | 美原油06(NYMEX) | 63.75 | 2.92 | 1.40 | | 美豆07 (CBOT) | 1046. 75 | -0. 24 | 0.17 | | 美豆粕07(CBOT) | 303. 20 | -0. 30 | 0.00 | | 美豆油07(CBOT) | 48. 32 | 0. 81 | 0. 83 | | | 最新价 | 涨跌幅(%) | 十日涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 美元指数 ...
【早间看点】ITS马棕4月前15日出口增加16.95% NOPA美豆3月压榨1.94551亿蒲低于预期-20250416
Guo Fu Qi Huo· 2025-04-16 05:26
| | 收盘价 | 上日涨跌幅(%) | 隔夜涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 马棕油06(BMD) | 4121.00 | -1.51 | 0. 34 | | 布伦特06(ICE) | 64. 85 | 0. 05 | 0. 19 | | 美原油06(NYMEX) | 60. 97 | -0. 16 | 0. 15 | | 美豆07 (CBOT) | 1045. 75 | -0. 43 | 0. 41 | | 美豆粕07(CBOT) | 301. 20 | -0. 73 | 0. 67 | | 美豆油07(CBOT) | 47.80 | 1.96 | 1.42 | | | 最新价 | 涨跌幅(%) | 十日涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 美元指数 | 100. 130 | 0. 45 | | | 人民币(CNY/USD) | 7. 2096 | -0. 02 | | | 马米林吉特(MYR/USD) | 4. 3926 | -0.26 | | | 印尼卢比(IDR/USD) | 16536 | -0. 48 | | | 巴西里亚尔( ...