【国富棕榈油研究周报】供应压力+宏观扰动，棕榈油价格震荡加剧 20250616 2025年06月16日 07:21 上海 2025/6/16 09:57 【国富棕榈油研究周报】供应压⼒+宏观扰动，棕榈油价格震荡加剧 20250616 2025/6/16 09:57 【国富棕榈油研究周报】供应压⼒+宏观扰动，棕榈油价格震荡加剧 20250616 | í | 行情回顾 | | --- | --- | | 1. | BMD 马棕 | | 2. | DCE 棕榈油 | | í i | 产区天气 3 | | | 1. 棕榈油产区天气 | | 三、 | 国际供需 | | 1. | MPOB 5 月报告 | | 2. | 马棕6月预测 | | | 3. 其他重要资讯 | | 四、 | 国内供需 | | 1. | 进口利润 | | 2. | 棕榈油成交 | | 3. | 棕榈油库存 | | 五、 | 国内外油脂期现价格、价差情况 | | 1. | 基差、月差、品种差情况 | | 2. | 棕榈油仓单数量和期货持仓量 | | 3 | FOB 报价 14 | https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/IXwey9tY ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 17.24% from June 1 - 10, 2025, while Indonesia is expected to increase palm oil exports to 25 million tons in 2025. The price of Malaysian palm oil is expected to be supported but may still face pressure during the seasonal production - increasing season. Short - term palm oil prices are expected to fluctuate [6][7][20]. - The USDA's 5 - month supply - demand report for soybeans has a positive impact. The ending stocks of US soybeans in the 24/25 and 25/26 seasons are lower than expected, which is favorable for the soybean market [21]. 3. Summary by Directory 01 Overnight Quotes - Overnight quotes for commodities such as Malaysian palm oil, Brent crude oil, US crude oil, US soybeans, etc., are presented, along with their price changes and exchange rate information for multiple currencies [1]. 02 Spot Quotes - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes for DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, and DCE soybean meal are provided, along with import soybean quotes from different regions [2]. 03 Important Fundamental Information - **Weather Outlook for US Soybean - Producing States**: From June 15 - 19, rainfall in US soybean - producing states is expected to be above normal, and temperatures will be higher than the median. The Midwest will experience a wet pattern, with different rainfall and temperature conditions in the east and west. This weather is expected to affect crop growth [3][5]. - **Palm Oil Production Data**: From June 1 - 10, 2025, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 17.24%, with a 16.71% decrease in yield and a 0.10% decrease in oil extraction rate [6]. - **Indonesian Palm Oil Exports**: Indonesia is expected to increase palm oil exports to 25 million tons in 2025, with production recovering after a temporary decline at the beginning of the year [7]. - **USDA Export Sales Report Forecast**: As of the week ending June 5, US soybean export sales are expected to increase by 10 - 700,000 tons, with different expectations for the 24/25 and 25/26 seasons [7]. - **Argentine Soybean Sales**: As of the week ending June 4, Argentine farmers sold a total of 1.8811 million tons of soybeans, with cumulative sales reaching 60.2493 million tons [8]. - **EU and UK Rapeseed Production**: The 2025/26 rapeseed production forecast for the EU 27 and the UK remains at 20.4 million tons, but there is still a drought risk in Poland [8]. - **Russian Oilseed Exports**: In the first 5 months of this year, Russian oilseed exports decreased by 22% year - on - year to 1.071 million tons, with different changes in the exports of various oilseeds [9]. - **Baltic Dry Bulk Freight Index**: The index rose to a nearly 7 - month high, with increases in the freight rates of various types of ships [9]. 04 Macroeconomic News - **International News**: The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in June is 97.6%. US CPI data for May was lower than expected, and market expectations for Fed rate cuts have changed. There are also data on US Treasury auctions, mortgage applications, and EIA inventory [15][16]. - **Domestic News**: On June 11, the US dollar/yuan exchange rate was adjusted downwards. The central bank conducted 164 billion yuan in 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 5.09 billion yuan. In May, the trading volume and turnover of the domestic futures market decreased year - on - year [18][19]. 05 Key Information Analysis - **Malaysian Palm Oil**: In May, Malaysian palm oil ending stocks increased by 6.65% to 1.99 million tons. Production, exports, and imports increased, while consumption decreased. The price is expected to be supported but may face pressure during the seasonal production - increasing season [20]. - **US Soybeans**: The USDA's 5 - month supply - demand report for soybeans shows that the ending stocks of US soybeans in the 24/25 and 25/26 seasons are lower than expected, which is positive for the market [21]. 06 Fund Flows - On June 11, 2025, the futures market had a net inflow of 3.484 billion yuan, with 2.151 billion yuan in commodity futures (including inflows in agricultural products, chemicals, black series, and metals) and 1.333 billion yuan in stock index futures. The report also lists the fund flows of various futures varieties [23][24].

2025/6/10 09:50 【国富期货早间看点】路透预计美⾖25/26 2.98 68% 20250610 【国富期货早间看点】路透预计美豆25/26年度期末库存为2.98亿蒲 美豆当周优良率为68%符合预期 20250610 2025年06月10日 07:34 上海 01 隔夜行情 | | 收盘价 | 上日流跌幅(%) | 隔夜流跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 马棕油08(BMD) | 3919.00 | 0. 20 | -0. 15 | | 布伦特08(ICE) | 67.13 | 0.72 | 0. 39 | | 美原油07(NYMEX) | 65. 38 | 0.94 | 0. 51 | | 美豆07(CBOT) | 1055. 75 | -0. 21 | 0. 02 | | 美豆箱07(CBOT) | 295. 20 | -0. 20 | 0. 24 | | 美豆油07(CBOT) | 47. 41 | -0. 04 | -0. 48 | | | 最新价 | 流跌幅(%) 十日漆跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | | 美元指数 | 98.99 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively presents the overnight and spot market conditions of multiple commodities such as palm oil, soybeans, and their related products, along with important fundamental information, macro - news, and capital flow data. It also analyzes the impact of weather on crop production and the influence of various economic data on the market [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overnight Market Conditions - The closing price of BMD palm oil 08 was 3917.00, with a previous - day increase of 0.33%. Brent 08 (ICE) closed at 66.65, up 2.08% previously and 0.56% overnight. NYMEX crude oil 07 closed at 64.77, up 2.40% previously and 0.39% overnight [1]. - The latest price of the US dollar index was 99.19, up 0.50%. The exchange rate of CNY/USD was 7.1845, down 0.03% [1]. 3.2 Spot Market Conditions - For DCE palm oil 2509, the spot price in North China was 8590, with a basis of 500 and no change from the previous day. In East China, it was 8490, with a basis of 400 and a decrease of 20 from the previous day [2]. - For DCE soybean meal 2509, in Shandong, the spot price was 2840, with a basis of - 159 [2]. 3.3 Important Fundamental Information - From June 1 - 5, 2025, Malaysian palm oil production increased by 19.09%, with a 19.16% increase in yield and a 0.01% decrease in oil extraction rate [6]. - As of the week ending June 3, CBOT soybean long - positions decreased by 3097 lots to 191916 lots, and short - positions increased by 9517 lots to 131969 lots [7]. - The FAO vegetable oil price index in May averaged 152.2 points, down 5.8 points (3.7%) month - on - month but still 19.1% higher than the same period last year [9]. 3.4 Macro - news International News - The US non - farm payrolls in May were 139,000, higher than the expected 130,000. The unemployment rate was 4.2%, in line with expectations [15]. - The eurozone's Q1 GDP annual rate revision was 1.5%, higher than the expected 1.2% [15]. Domestic News - On June 6, the central bank conducted 1350 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 1561 billion yuan on that day [17]. - China's central bank's gold reserves at the end of May were 73.83 million ounces, an increase of 60,000 ounces from the previous month [17]. 3.5 Key Information Analysis - Malaysia's palm oil ending inventory in April increased by 19.37% to 1.866 million tons, with a significant increase in production and the report's impact being negative [18]. - The USDA May supply - demand report increased US soybean exports in the 24/25 season by 25 million bushels to 1.85 billion bushels, and the ending inventory was estimated to be 350 million bushels [19]. 3.6 Capital Flow - On June 6, 2025, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 2.243 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 4.883 billion yuan in commodity futures and a net outflow of 7.127 billion yuan in stock index futures [22].

Report Title - "Guofu Palm Oil Research Weekly: Positive Export Demand for Malaysian Palm Oil, Palm Oil Prices Fluctuate Strongly" [1] Core View - The export demand for Malaysian palm oil is positive, and palm oil prices fluctuate strongly [1] Section Summaries 1. Market Review - The report likely reviews the BMD Malaysian palm oil and DCE palm oil markets, but specific content is not provided [4] 2. Production Area Weather - It focuses on the weather in palm oil production areas, yet details are absent [4] 3. International Supply and Demand 3.1 GAPKI 2025 March Report - Specific content of the report is not given [4] 3.2 Malaysian Palm Oil May Forecast - **Exports**: According to AmSpec, Malaysia's palm oil exports in May 2025 were 1,230,787 tons, a 13.21% increase from the previous month and a 12.38% decrease from the same period last year. ITS estimated exports at 1,320,914 tons, a 17.86% increase month - on - month and a 10.86% decrease year - on - year. SGS estimated 1,069,643 tons, a 29.61% increase month - on - month [20][21] - **Production**: SPPOMA data shows that as of June 5, 2025, palm oil production increased by 19.09% compared to May 31, 2025. MPOA estimated that Malaysia's palm oil production in May 2025 increased by 13.07% compared to the previous month [23] 3.3 Other Important News - No specific content is provided [4] 4. Domestic Supply and Demand 4.1 Import Profit - Specific content is not available [4] 4.2 Palm Oil Transactions - No details are given [4] 4.3 Palm Oil Inventory - Specific information is absent [4] 5. Domestic and International Oil Futures and Spot Prices, and Spreads 5.1 Basis, Monthly Spreads, and Variety Spreads - Specific content is not provided [4] 5.2 Palm Oil Warehouse Receipt Quantity and Futures Positions - No details are available [4] 5.3 FOR Quotations - Specific content is not given [4]

2025/6/6 14:11 【国富期货早间看点】MPOA 5 3.07% 19.79 20250606 【国富期货早间看点】MPOA马棕5月产量预估增长3.07% 美豆当周 净出口销售19.79万吨符合预期 20250606 2025年06月06日 07:31 上海 01 隔夜行情 | | 收盘价 | 上日 流跌幅(%) | 隔夜漆跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 马棕油08(BMD) | 3921.00 | -1.16 | 0. 44 | | 布伦特08(ICE) | 65. 29 | 0.59 | -0. 61 | | 美原油07(NYMEX) | 63. 25 | 0. 81 | -0. 75 | | 美豆07 (CBOT) | 1050. 50 | 0. 55 | 0. 17 | | 美豆箱07(CBOT) | 296. 80 | -0. 03 | 0. 27 | | 美豆油07(CBOT) | 46. 62 | -0. 21 | -0. 51 | | | 最新价 | 流跌幅(%) | 十日漆跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 美元 ...

2025/6/5 10:01 【国富期货早间看点】路透预计⻢棕5 7.74% 201 Anec 6 1255 20250605 【国富期货早间看点】路透预计马棕5月库存增7.74%至201万吨 Anec预计巴西大豆6月出口1255万吨 20250605 2025年06月05日 07:46 上海 01 隔夜行情 | | 收盘价 | 上日 流跌幅(%) | 隔夜流跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 马棕油08(BMD) | 3925.00 | 0. 41 | -0. 63 | | 布伦特08(ICE) | 64. 91 | -1. 07 | -0. 60 | | 美原油07(NYMEX) | 62.74 | -0.95 | -0. 84 | | 美豆07 (CBOT) | 1044. 75 | 0. 36 | -0. 45 | | 美豆箱07(CBOT) | 296. 90 | 0. 88 | -0. 17 | | 美豆油07(CBOT) | 46. 72 | -0. 19 | -0. 79 | | | 最新价 | 流跌幅(%) 十日漆跌幅 | | --- | --- | -- ...

2025/6/4 10:22 【国富期货早间看点】SPPOMA 5 3.53% 5 87% 60 20250604 【国富期货早间看点】SPPOMA马棕5月产量增加3.53% 交易商预 计印度5月棕榈油进口增长87%至60万吨 20250604 2025年06月04日 07:28 上海 01 隔夜行情 | | 收盘价 | 上日流跌幅(%) | 隔夜漆跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 马棕油08(BMD) | 3948. 00 | 1.44 | 0. 36 | | 布伦特08(ICE) | 65. 61 | 0. 75 | -0. 18 | | 美原油07(NYMEX) | 63. 34 | 0. 48 | -0. 61 | | 美豆07 (CBOT) | 1041.00 | 0. 63 | -0.22 | | 美豆箱07(CBOT) | 294. 30 | -0. 07 | -0. 03 | | 美豆油07(CBOT) | 46. 81 | 1.25 | -0. 04 | | | 最新价 | 流跌幅(%) | 十日漆跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

2025/6/3 10:45 【国富⾖系研究周报】美国⽣柴政策消息扰动，⼤⾖油粕⽐下跌 20250603 【国富豆系研究周报】美国生柴政策消息扰动，大豆油粕比下跌 20250603 2025年06月03日 07:11 上海 | í 行情回顾. | | --- | | 1. 大豆 | | 2. 豆粘 ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 3 | | 3. 豆油 | | 二、产区天气 | | 1. 美国大豆产区天气 | | =、 国际供需 . | | 1. 美国大豆 | | 2. 巴西大豆 | | 3. 阿根廷大豆 . | | 国内供需 ……………………………………………………………………… 22 四、 | | 1. 豆油供需 | | 2. 豆粕供需 | | 五、 国内外油脂期现价格、价差情况……………………………………………………………………………………………… 29 | | 1. 基差、月差、品种差情况 . | | 2. FOB 报价 | | 3. CFTC 持仓情况 . | https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/uhsxEU0 ...

2025/6/3 10:44 【国富期货早间看点】ITS 5 17.9% USDA 67% 20250603 【国富期货早间看点】ITS马棕5月出口增加17.9% USDA美豆当周 优良率为67%低于预期 20250603 2025年06月03日 07:11 上海 01 隔夜行情 | | 收盘价 | 上日 涨跌幅(%) | 隔夜流跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 马棕油08(BMD) | 1 | | | | 布伦特08(ICE) | 65. 12 | 4. 01 | 0. 46 | | 美原油07(NYMEX) | 63.04 | 3.70 | 0. 35 | | 美豆07 (CBOT) | 1034.50 | -0. 74 | -0.24 | | 美豆箱07(CBOT) | 294. 50 | -0.54 | -0. 07 | | 美豆油07(CBOT) | 46. 23 | -1. 43 | -0. 67 | | | 最新价 | 流跌幅(%) | 十日 漆咲幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 美元指数 | 98. 70 | -0.72 | ...