2025/8/11 10:03 【国富棕榈油研究周报】MPOB 报告发布在即，棕榈油价格震荡运⾏ 20250811 【国富棕榈油研究周报】MPOB 报告发布在即，棕榈油价格震荡运 行 20250811 国富研究 国富研究 2025年08月11日 07:20 上海 https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/NZqtcFtsJkg78NTmOFBVcQ 1/15 | í | 行情回顾 | | --- | --- | | 1. | BMD 马棕 | | 2. | DCE 棕榈油 | | | 二、产区天气 | | | 1. 棕榈油产区天气 | | 三、 | 国际供需 . | | 1. | 马棕 7-8 月预测 | | 2. | 其他重要资讯 6 | | 四、 | 国内供需 | | | 1. 进口利润 | | 2. | 棕榈油成交 | | 3. | 棕榈油库存 | | 五、 | 国内外油脂期现价格、价差情况 | | 1. | 基差、月差、品种差情况 | | 2. | 棕榈油仓单数量和期货持仓量 | | | 3. FOB 报价 | https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/NZqtcFtsJkg7 ...

2025/8/8 10:46 【国富期货早间看点】USDA美⾖当周出⼝净增101.29万吨⾼于预期 Anec巴西⼤⾖8⽉出⼝料为815万吨 20250808 | 期货 | 现货 | 现货价格 | 基差 | 基差隔日变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | DCE棕榈油2509 | 华北 | 9060 | 120 | 0 | | | 华东 | 8920 | -20 | -40 | | | 华南 | 8920 | -20 | 0 | | DCE豆油2509 | 山东 | 8500 | 110 | 90 | | | 江苏 | 8670 | 280 | 0 | | | 广东 | 8570 | 180 | -20 | | | 天津 | 8530 | 140 | 20 | | DCE豆粕2509 | 山东 | 2890 | -127 | 5 | | | 江苏 | 2910 | -107 | 5 | | | 广东 | 2910 | -107 | 5 | | | 天津 | 2970 | -47 | -5 | | | 地区 | CNF升贴水 (美分/蒲式耳) | CNF升贴水变化 | CNF ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints The report presents a comprehensive overview of the futures market, including overnight and spot prices, important fundamental information on international and domestic supply - demand, macro - economic news, fund flows, and arbitrage tracking. It covers commodities such as palm oil, soybeans, crude oil, and financial instruments like stock index futures. Summary by Directory 01 Overnight行情 - Overnight closing prices and price changes of various futures are presented, including BMD palm oil, ICE Brent crude, NYMEX WTI crude, CBOT soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil. For example, BMD palm oil 10 closed at 4257.00 with a previous - day decline of 0.54% and an overnight decline of 0.23% [1]. - Price changes of major currencies are also given, such as the US dollar index, CNY/USD, MYR/USD, etc. The US dollar index was at 98.21 with a decline of 0.56% [1]. 02现货行情 - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE palm oil 2509, DCE soybean oil 2509, and DCE soybean meal 2509 in different regions are provided. For instance, the spot price of DCE palm oil 2509 in North China is 9100 with a basis of 120 and no change in basis from the previous day [2]. - CNF quotes and CNF premium/discounts for imported soybeans from different origins are presented, like the CNF premium for Brazilian soybeans is 315 cents per bushel and the CNF quote is 480 dollars per ton [2]. 03重要基本面信息 - 产区天气 - The future weather outlook (August 11 - 15) for US soybean - producing states shows generally high temperatures and precipitation close to or above the median. Most states will have above - normal temperatures (A) and above - median precipitation (A) [3][4]. - The weather in the US Midwest will see a temperature drop later this week, with good soil moisture in most areas. There will be sporadic showers in different parts at different times [5]. - 国际供需 - MPOA data shows that Malaysia's palm oil production in July 2025 is estimated to increase by 9.01% to 1.84 million tons, with different changes in different regions [7]. - SPPOMA data indicates that from August 1 - 5, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield decreased by 19.32% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.39%, and production decreased by 17.27% [7]. - Forecasts for palm oil production in different countries are given: Malaysia's 2024/25 production is estimated to be 19.2 million tons (up 1% from the previous forecast), Indonesia's is 48.8 million tons (unchanged), and Thailand's is 3.52 million tons (unchanged) [8]. - Nigeria plans to plant 100 million oil palm trees and revitalize the cocoa industry [8]. - Analysts expect US soybean export sales to increase by 30 - 80 thousand tons in the week ending July 31, 2025, with different projections for 2024/25 and 2025/26 [9]. - Brazil exported 12.25732536 million tons of soybeans in July 2025, with a 9% increase in daily average export volume compared to the same period last year [9]. - As of July 30, 2025, Argentine farmers sold 528.9 thousand tons of 2024/25 soybeans, with a cumulative sales volume of 27.9605 million tons [10]. - Wet weather has delayed the rapeseed harvest in the EU 27 and the UK, and the 2025/26 rapeseed production is expected to be 20.3 million tons (unchanged) [10]. - 国内供需 - On August 6, 2025, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was 52.8 thousand tons, a 185.41% increase from the previous trading day [12]. - On August 6, 2025, the trading volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was 311.5 thousand tons, a decrease of 1.5959 million tons from the previous day. The national dynamic full - sample oil mill operating rate was 61.63%, a 1.18% increase from the previous day [12]. - From July 21 - 27, 2025, the average purchase price of live pigs in designated slaughtering enterprises was 15.84 yuan/kg, a 0.8% decrease from the previous week and an 18.7% decrease year - on - year [13]. - On August 6, 2025, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" was 113.78, a 0.26 - point increase from the previous day [13]. 04宏观要闻 - 国际要闻 - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September 2025 is 6.4%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 93.6% [15]. - The US MBA mortgage application activity index for the week ending August 1, 2025, was 253.4, with different values for purchase and refinancing indices [15]. - The US global supply - chain pressure index in July 2025 was 0.07, down from 0.14 in the previous month [15]. - Fed's Kashkari believes that the Fed should respond to the economic slowdown and that two rate cuts this year seem appropriate, but may pause or even raise rates if inflation rises due to tariffs [15]. - Trump plans to impose a 100% tariff on imported semiconductor - containing products, with exemptions for companies producing in the US [15]. - The US White House announced that Trump signed an executive order to impose an additional 25% tariff on Indian goods in response to India's continued purchase of Russian oil [15]. - As of August 1, 2025, the US EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventory was 235 thousand barrels, and the EIA crude oil inventory decreased by 3.029 million barrels [16]. - In June 2025, the euro - area retail trade volume increased by 0.3% month - on - month and 3.1% year - on - year [16]. - 国内要闻 - On August 6, 2025, the USD/CNY exchange rate was 7.1409, with a 43 - point increase (CNY depreciation) [18]. - On August 6, 2025, the People's Bank of China conducted 138.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 170.5 billion yuan due to 309 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities [18]. 05资金流向 - On August 6, 2025, the futures market had a net capital inflow of 9.244 billion yuan, with commodity futures having a net inflow of 3.11 billion yuan (including 0.31 billion yuan in agricultural product futures, 1.543 billion yuan in chemical futures, 2.487 billion yuan in black - series futures, and a net outflow of 1.23 billion yuan in metal futures), and stock index futures having a net inflow of 6.134 billion yuan [22]. - Capital flow data for various futures products are presented, such as the net capital inflow for CSI 1000 stock index futures is 49.35 and for CSI 500 stock index futures is 19.77 [21]. 06套利跟踪 No specific content provided.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report presents a comprehensive overview of the futures market, including overnight and spot prices, important fundamental information, macro - news, fund flows, etc. It covers multiple aspects of the agricultural and energy futures, as well as international and domestic macro - economic factors that may impact the market [1][11]. 3. Summary by Directory Overnight行情 - The closing prices and price changes of various futures, including Malaysian palm oil, Brent crude oil, US crude oil, US soybeans, etc., are presented. The US dollar index and exchange rates of multiple currencies against the US dollar are also provided [1]. Spot行情 - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, and DCE soybean meal in different regions are given. CNF quotes and CNF premium information for imported soybeans are also included [2]. Important Fundamental Information 产区天气 - The future weather outlook (August 10 - 14) for US soybean - producing states shows that most areas will have higher - than - normal temperatures and precipitation. The US Midwest planting belt will have showers this week, with good soil moisture in most areas [3][5]. 国际供需 - Malaysia plans to increase the allocation for palm oil replanting projects from 2026 - 2030. In 2024, the replanting rate was only 2%, far below the 4% target. Brazil's soybean sales data for different seasons are provided. EU's imports of palm oil, soybeans, soybean meal, and rapeseed in 2025/26 are lower than the previous year. The Baltic Dry Index continued to decline [7][9]. 国内供需 - On August 5, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil decreased. The trading volume of soybean meal increased, while the oil - mill operating rate decreased. The national soybean oil port inventory increased. The "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and the "Vegetable Basket Product Wholesale Price Index" rose slightly [10]. Macro - news 国际要闻 - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September and October is high. US economic data such as retail sales, PMI, trade balance, and API crude oil inventory are presented. Trump made statements on tariffs and the Fed chair. Eurozone's PPI and PMI data are also provided [11][13]. 国内要闻 - On August 5, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate decreased (yuan appreciated). The central bank conducted 7 - day reverse repurchase operations and achieved a net withdrawal of funds. China's futures market trading volume and turnover in July increased year - on - year [15]. Fund Flows - On August 5, 2025, the futures market had a net inflow of 4.689 billion yuan, with commodity futures having a net inflow of 5.333 billion yuan and stock index futures having a net outflow of 0.644 billion yuan [18].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints The report provides a comprehensive overview of the futures market, including overnight and spot prices, important fundamental information on weather, international and domestic supply - demand, macro news, fund flows, and arbitrage tracking for commodities such as palm oil, soybeans, and related products. Specific Summaries by Section Overnight Quotes - The closing price of BMD Malaysian palm oil 10 was 4,218.00, with a previous - day decline of 1.39% and an overnight decline of 0.76% [1]. - Brent 10 (ICE) closed at 68.68, with a previous - day decline of 1.21% and an overnight decline of 0.85% [1]. - NYMEX US crude oil 09 closed at 66.24, with a previous - day decline of 1.52% and an overnight decline of 0.94% [1]. - CBOT US soybeans 11 closed at 994.50, with a previous - day increase of 0.66% and an overnight decline of 0.13% [1]. Spot Quotes - For DCE palm oil 2509, the spot price in North China was 8,920, with a basis of 120 and no change in basis from the previous day [2]. - For DCE soybean oil 2509, the spot price in Shandong was 8,330, with a basis of 80 and a basis decline of 2 from the previous day [2]. - For DCE soybean meal 2509, the spot price in Shandong was 2,900, with a basis of - 118 and a basis decline of 9 from the previous day [2]. Important Fundamental Information Weather in Production Areas - US soybean - producing states are expected to have above - normal temperature and precipitation from August 9 - 13 [4]. - The Midwest planting belt in the US will be mostly dry this week, with soil moisture remaining good. A front has passed, bringing cooler temperatures [6]. International Supply - Demand - Reuters survey shows that Malaysia's palm oil inventory in July 2025 is expected to be 2.25 million tons, an increase of 10.8% from June [8]. - As of June 30, 2025, 89.6% (5.03 million hectares) of Malaysia's oil palm plantations had MSPO certification [8]. - The US soybean good - to - excellent rate as of August 3, 2025, was 69%, in line with market expectations [10]. Domestic Supply - Demand - On August 4, 2025, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was 33,150 tons, a 25% decrease from the previous trading day [14]. - As of August 1, 2025, the total commercial inventory of three major oils in key regions in China was 2.3611 million tons, a 0.03% decrease from the previous week [14]. Macro News International News - The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 5.6%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 94.4% [17]. - The US factory orders in June decreased by 4.8% month - on - month, in line with expectations [17]. Domestic News - On August 4, 2025, the central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was 7.1395, up 101 points (appreciation of the RMB) [19]. - On August 4, 2025, the central bank conducted 544.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 49 billion yuan [19]. Fund Flows On August 4, 2025, the futures market had a net inflow of 778 million yuan, with a net inflow of 2.6 billion yuan in commodity futures and a net outflow of 1.822 billion yuan in stock index futures [21]. Arbitrage Tracking No specific content provided.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents a comprehensive overview of the futures market on August 4, 2025, covering overnight and spot market quotes, important fundamental information, macro - economic news, capital flows, and arbitrage tracking. It focuses on the performance of various commodities such as palm oil, soybeans, and crude oil, as well as international and domestic economic indicators. 3. Summary by Directory Overnight Quotes - The closing price of BMD Malaysian palm oil in October was 4,245.00, with a previous day's increase of 0.35%. Brent crude oil in October on ICE was at 69.52, a decrease of 3.15% the previous day and 0.20% overnight. NYMEX US crude oil in September was at 67.26, down 3.03% the previous day and 0.06% overnight [1]. - The US dollar index was at 98.67, a decrease of 1.32%. The exchange rates of various currencies against the US dollar showed different trends, with the Malaysian ringgit, Indonesian rupiah, Brazilian real, and Singapore dollar appreciating, while the Argentine peso depreciated [1]. Spot Quotes - For DCE palm oil 2509, the spot prices in North China, East China, and South China were 9,040, 8,910, and 8,900 respectively, with corresponding basis values of 120, - 10, and - 20, and basis changes of - 10, - 40, and 0 [2]. - For DCE soybean oil 2509, the spot prices in Shandong, Jiangsu, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 8,300, 8,520, 8,460, and 8,390 respectively, with basis values and changes varying by region [2]. - For DCE soybean meal 2509, the spot prices in Shandong, Jiangsu, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 2,890, 2,890, 2,870, and 2,970 respectively, with corresponding basis values and changes [2]. - The CNF quotes for imported soybeans from Brazil and Argentina were 474 and 452 dollars per ton respectively, with CNF premiums of 300 and 240 cents per bushel [2]. Important Fundamental Information - **Weather in Production Areas**: US soybean - producing states are expected to have above - average temperatures from August 6 - 10, with more precipitation in the northwest and northeast. The weather in the US Midwest is currently favorable for corn and soybean growth, with occasional rainfall and temperature fluctuations [3][5]. - **International Supply and Demand**: In July 2025, Malaysian palm oil production increased by 7.07% according to SPPOMA. Indonesia exported 2.07 million tons of crude palm oil and its products in June. There were also changes in the positions of various agricultural products futures, US soybean crushing volume, Canadian rapeseed exports, and Nigeria's plan to double soybean planting area by 2027 [9][10][11]. - **Domestic Supply and Demand**: On August 1, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil increased by 31% compared to the previous day. There were also changes in the trading volume and开机 rate of soybean meal, soybean crushing volume, Brazilian soybean shipping plans to China, pig - breeding profits, and agricultural product wholesale prices [14][15]. Macro - economic News - **International News**: US economic data in July showed mixed results, with lower - than - expected non - farm payrolls, slightly higher unemployment rate, and inflation expectations. The ISM and S&P Global manufacturing PMIs also had different performances. There were discussions about OPEC+ production increases [18][20]. - **Domestic News**: On August 1, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was adjusted upwards. The Chinese central bank carried out reverse - repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of funds on the day and a net injection for the week. Newly - issued government bond interest income will be subject to VAT starting from August 8 [22]. Capital Flows - On August 1, 2025, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 9.63 billion yuan, with 1.091 billion yuan from commodity futures (697 million yuan inflow in agricultural product futures, 140 million yuan inflow in chemical futures, 1.293 billion yuan outflow in black - series futures, and 635 million yuan outflow in metal futures) and 8.539 billion yuan from stock - index futures [25]. - The capital flows of major futures varieties varied, with inflows in some commodities like soybean oil and gold, and outflows in others such as crude oil and copper [24]. Arbitrage Tracking No relevant information provided.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information regarding the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a comprehensive overview of the overnight and spot market conditions for various commodities, including palm oil, soybeans, and crude oil. It also presents important fundamental information on factors such as weather conditions, international and domestic supply - demand dynamics, and macroeconomic news. Additionally, it details the capital flow in the futures market and conducts arbitrage tracking [1][2][24]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overnight Market Conditions - **Futures**: The closing prices and price changes of various futures contracts, such as BMD's October palm oil, ICE's October Brent crude, and NYMEX's September US crude oil, are presented. For example, BMD's October palm oil closed at 4259.00, with a previous - day increase of 0.54% and an overnight decrease of 0.42% [1]. - **Currencies**: The latest prices and price changes of multiple currencies, including the US dollar index, CNY/USD, MYR/USD, etc., are provided. For instance, the US dollar index was at 99.94, with an increase of 1.05% [1]. 3.2 Spot Market Conditions - **Futures - Spot**: The spot prices, basis, and basis changes of various futures contracts, such as DCE's 2509 palm oil, 2509 soybean oil, and 2509 soybean meal, are given. For example, the spot price of DCE's 2509 palm oil in North China is 9110, with a basis of 130 and a basis change of 0 [2]. 3.3 Important Fundamental Information 3.3.1 Weather Conditions in Producing Areas - **US Soybean Producing States**: The future weather outlook from August 4th to 8th shows that the temperature in the main soybean - producing states is high, and the precipitation in the northwest is higher than the average. The temperature in the Midwest planting belt is expected to drop, and the growth conditions are still relatively favorable [5][7]. 3.3.2 International Supply - Demand - **Malaysian Palm Oil**: From January to May 2025, Malaysia's palm oil exports to the US increased by 51.8% year - on - year, from 6.1 million tons in the same period last year to 9.3 million tons [9]. - **US Soybean Exports**: As of the week ending July 24th, US soybean export sales are expected to increase by 20 - 90 million tons, with 10 - 30 million tons for the 2024/25 season and 10 - 60 million tons for the 2025/26 season [10]. - **Argentine Soybean Sales**: As of July 23rd, Argentine farmers sold 78.77 million tons of 24/25 season soybeans, with a cumulative sales volume of 2743.16 million tons, and 4.3 million tons of 25/26 season soybeans, with a cumulative sales volume of 48.95 million tons [11]. - **Ukrainian Rapeseed**: As of July 25th, Ukrainian farmers have harvested about 100 million tons of rapeseed, lower than 330 million tons in the same period last year. The market has revised down the 2025 rapeseed production forecast to 240 - 250 million tons [12]. - **Baltic Dry Index**: On Wednesday, the Baltic Dry Index fell for the fourth consecutive day, reaching a two - week low, due to a decline in demand for all ship types [13]. 3.3.3 Domestic Supply - Demand - **Oil Product Transactions**: On July 30th, the total transaction volume of soybean oil and palm oil was 102,566 tons, a 108% increase from the previous trading day. The total transaction volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was 30.49 million tons, a decrease of 13.05 million tons from the previous day [14]. - **Agricultural Product Prices**: The average weekly price of lean - type white - striped pork in 16 provinces (municipalities) from July 21st to July 25th, 2025, was 18.73 yuan per kilogram, a 2.2% week - on - week decrease and a 25.7% year - on - year decrease [14]. 3.4 Macroeconomic News 3.4.1 International News - **US Economic Data**: The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 54.3%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 45.7%. US economic data such as ADP employment, GDP, and PCE price index are also presented [17]. - **FOMC Statement**: The Fed maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.25% - 4.50%, with two governors advocating for a rate cut [18]. - **Eurozone Economic Data**: The Eurozone's second - quarter GDP annual rate is 1.4%, and the industrial and economic sentiment indices in July are - 10.4 and 95.8 respectively [19]. 3.4.2 Domestic News - **Exchange Rate and Monetary Policy**: On July 30th, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was 7.1441, down 70 points. The central bank conducted 309 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 158.5 billion yuan [21]. - **Housing Loan Interest Rate**: In the second quarter of 2025, the weighted average interest rate of newly issued commercial personal housing loans in China was 3.09% [21]. 3.5 Capital Flow On July 30th, 2025, the net inflow of funds in the futures market was 18.187 billion yuan, with 6.098 billion yuan in commodity futures (including 205 million yuan in agricultural product futures, 5.324 billion yuan in chemical futures, 131 million yuan in black - series futures, and 439 million yuan in metal futures) and 12.089 billion yuan in stock index futures [24]. 3.6 Arbitrage Tracking There is no detailed information on arbitrage tracking in the provided content.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report about the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints The report comprehensively presents the overnight and spot market conditions of various commodities including palm oil, soybean, and related products, along with important fundamental information such as weather in the US, international and domestic supply - demand situations, macro - economic news, and capital flows in the market [1][2][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Market Conditions - **Futures**: The closing prices and daily and overnight price changes of commodities like Malaysian palm oil, Brent crude oil, and US soybean futures are presented. For example, the closing price of Malaysian palm oil 10 (BMD) is 4283.00, with a daily increase of 0.35% and an overnight increase of 0.68% [1]. - **Currencies**: The latest prices and price changes of the US dollar index and multiple currencies against the US dollar are provided, such as the US dollar index at 98.90, up 0.25% [1]. Spot Market Conditions - **Futures and Spot**: The spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE palm oil 2509, DCE soybean oil 2509, and DCE soybean meal 2509 in different regions are given. For instance, the spot price of DCE palm oil 2509 in North China is 9050, with a basis of 130 and no change in basis from the previous day [2]. - **Imported Soybean Quotes**: The CNF premiums and CNF quotes of imported soybeans from different regions are shown, like the CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans is 266 cents per bushel, and the CNF quote is 469 dollars per ton [4]. Important Fundamental Information - **Weather in Production Areas**: The future weather outlook of US soybean - producing states from August 3rd to 7th shows that the temperature is close to the average and precipitation is mostly above the median. The Midwest planting belt has rising temperatures and relatively high soil moisture [5][7]. - **International Supply - Demand**: The EU and Indonesia reached an agreement on palm oil trade, with the EU allowing zero - tariff imports of a certain quota of Indonesian palm oil. Indonesia is expected to export over 500 tons of palm oil to India in 2025. Brazil's July soybean and soybean meal export forecasts are lower than the previous week. EU's 2025/26 imports of palm oil, soybean, soybean meal, and rapeseed are all lower than the same period last year. Canada's June rapeseed crushing volume increased by 3.0% month - on - month [9][10][11]. - **Domestic Supply - Demand**: On July 29th, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil increased by 152% compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills increased significantly, and the operating rate of oil mills rose. The national soybean oil port inventory increased by 2.8 tons compared to the previous week [14]. Macroeconomic News - **International News**: The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 97.4%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 2.6%. The US consumer confidence index in July is 97.2, higher than the expected value [15]. - **Domestic News**: On July 29th, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was reported at 7.1511, up 44 points. The Chinese central bank conducted 4492 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, achieving a net investment of 2344 billion yuan [18]. Capital Flows On July 29th, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 38.56 billion yuan. Commodity futures had a net capital outflow of 0.57 billion yuan, including an outflow of 9.38 billion yuan from agricultural product futures and 8.29 billion yuan from chemical futures, while black - series futures had a net capital inflow of 33.2 billion yuan. Index futures had a net capital outflow of 38 billion yuan [21].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report presents a comprehensive overview of the futures market, including overnight and spot prices, important fundamental information on weather, international and domestic supply - demand, macro - economic news, and details on fund flows. It also provides data on key agricultural products such as palm oil, soybeans, and their related products, along with information on livestock and macro - economic indicators both in the US and globally [1][3][7][16]. 3. Summary by Directory 01 Overnight Market - Overnight prices and price changes of various futures including palm oil, Brent crude, US crude, soybeans, and related products are presented. Price changes of major currencies are also provided [1]. - Information on futures - spot price differences (basis) for palm oil, soybean oil, and soybean meal in different regions, as well as CNF quotes for imported soybeans from different countries [1]. 02 Spot Market No specific content provided. 03 Important Fundamental Information - **产区天气 -** - US soybean - producing states are expected to have low temperatures and precipitation close to or above the median from August 2 - 6. The Midwest has good soil moisture with rain this week, and although there is high - temperature stress, the overall situation is favorable for crops [3][5]. - **国际供需 -** - Malaysian palm oil production from July 1 - 25, 2025, increased by 5.52% compared to the same period last month, while exports decreased by 8.53% [7]. - As of July 27, 2025, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 70%, higher than expected. The flowering and pod - setting rates are also reported [8]. - Brazilian soybean exports in the first four weeks of July 2025 increased by 12% compared to the daily average of July last year [9]. - Argentina reduced export withholding tax rates for various agricultural products [9]. - The Baltic Dry Index declined on Monday due to falling freight rates of all ship types [10]. - **国内供需 -** - On July 28, 2025, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil increased by 72% compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume of soybean meal also increased, and the oil - mill operating rate rose [12]. - As of July 25, 2025, the total commercial inventory of three major oils increased slightly, with palm oil inventory rising and soybean oil inventory falling [12]. - As of July 28, 2025, the inventory of imported soybeans at Chinese ports increased [13]. - In June 2025, the slaughter volume of large - scale pig - slaughtering enterprises decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. As of July 28, there were price changes in major agricultural products in the wholesale market [14]. 04 Macro News - **International News** - The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 96.9%, and in September, the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 62.6% [16]. - The US July Dallas Fed Business Activity Index was 0.9, better than expected [16]. - The US Treasury increased its borrowing forecast for the third quarter by $453 billion [16]. - China - US economic and trade teams held talks in Stockholm on July 28 [16]. - Trump announced a trade agreement with the EU, including tariff and investment details [16]. - The US will not extend the tariff - increase deadline on August 1, but Trump is ready to continue tariff negotiations [16]. - OPEC + is considering another production - increase action and will discuss September's production level on August 3 [17]. - **Domestic News** - On July 28, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was adjusted up, and the Chinese central bank conducted a net injection of 325.1 billion yuan through reverse repurchase operations [19]. 05 Fund Flows - On July 28, 2025, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 18.351 billion yuan, with a net outflow of 23.813 billion yuan in commodity futures and a net inflow of 5.461 billion yuan in stock - index futures. Details of fund flows for major futures varieties are provided [22][23]. 06 Arbitrage Tracking No information provided.

Report Title - The report is titled "Guofu Palm Oil Research Weekly: Supply Increase and Demand Decrease in Origin, Palm Oil Prices Oscillate and Decline" [1] Core View - The palm oil market is characterized by an increase in supply and a decrease in demand in the origin, leading to an oscillating and declining price trend [1] Section Summaries 1.行情回顾 (Market Review) - This section likely covers the performance of BMD Malaysian palm oil and DCE palm oil, but specific details are not provided in the given content 2.产区天气 (Weather in Producing Areas) - It focuses on the weather conditions in palm oil - producing areas, yet no specific information is available 3.国际供需 (International Supply and Demand) 3.1 GAPKI 5 - month report - No content related to this report is provided 3.2 Indian SEA 6 - month report - No content related to this report is provided 3.3 Malaysian palm oil July forecast - **Export data**: According to AmSpec on July 25, 2025, Malaysian palm oil exports were 896,484 tons, a 15.22% month - on - month decrease and a 23.59% year - on - year decrease. Exports of different types of palm oil also declined. For example, 24 - degree palm oil exports decreased by 30.02% month - on - month and 55.52% year - on - year [25]. According to SGS on July 20, 2025, Malaysian palm oil exports were 486,404 tons, a 35.99% month - on - month decrease and a 50.29% year - on - year decrease [26] - **Production data**: According to SPPOMA on July 20, 2025, the production increased by 16.19% compared to July 15, 2025. FFB yield increased by 7.03%. According to MPOA on July 20, 2025, Malaysian palm oil production increased by 11.24% compared to the previous month [27][28] 3.4 Other important information - No additional significant information is provided 4.国内供需 (Domestic Supply and Demand) 4.1 Import profit - No content related to import profit is provided 4.2 Palm oil transactions - No content related to palm oil transactions is provided 4.3 Palm oil inventory - No content related to palm oil inventory is provided 5.国内外油脂期现价格、价差情况 (Domestic and International Futures and Spot Prices and Price Differences of Oils and Fats) 5.1 Basis, monthly spread, and variety spread - No content related to basis, monthly spread, and variety spread is provided 5.2 Palm oil warehouse receipts and futures positions - No content related to palm oil warehouse receipts and futures positions is provided 5.3 FOB quotes - No content related to FOB quotes is provided