1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report presents a comprehensive overview of the futures market, including spot prices, fundamental information, macro - news, and capital flows. It shows that there are various changes in production, supply - demand, and price trends in the agricultural and energy sectors, and also reflects the impact of macro - economic policies and events on the market [1][13][15] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Spot Market - **Futures Prices**: The closing prices and price changes of various futures contracts such as Malaysian palm oil, Brent crude oil, and US soybeans are presented. For example, the closing price of Malaysian palm oil 11 (BMD) is 4422.00, with a previous - day increase of 0.07% and an overnight decrease of 0.58% [1] - **Spot and Basis**: The spot prices and basis of DCE palm oil 2601, DCE soybean oil 2601, and DCE soybean meal 2601 in different regions are provided. For instance, the spot price of DCE palm oil 2601 in North China is 9560, with a basis of 100 and no change from the previous day [2] - **Exchange Rates**: The latest exchange rates and their changes of major currencies against the US dollar are given, like the US dollar index at 97.00 with a 0.40% increase [1] 3.2 Important Fundamental Information 3.2.1产区天气 - **US Soybean Main - producing States**: The future weather outlook (September 22 - 26) shows that the temperature in the main - producing states is generally high, and precipitation is close to or lower than the median. The Midwest has high temperatures and showers that are mostly unfavorable for crop maturity and harvest [3][5] 3.2.2 International Supply and Demand - **Malaysian Palm Oil**: From September 1 - 15, 2025, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 8.05% compared to the same period last month. Different institutions have different estimates of its export volume changes [7][8] - **US Agricultural Products**: Analysts expect that as of the week ending September 11, 2025/26 US soybean export sales will net increase by 40 - 150 million tons, and there are also corresponding expectations for soybean meal and soybean oil export sales [8] - **Canadian Rapeseed**: In 2025, Canada's rapeseed production is expected to increase by 4.1% to 20 million tons, with different production trends in different provinces [10] - **Australian Rapeseed**: The 2025/26 Australian rapeseed production is expected to be 6.1 million tons, a 3.4% increase from the previous forecast [11] - **Baltic Dry Bulk Freight Index**: It rose for the fourth consecutive day due to the increase in capesize ship freight rates [11] 3.2.3 Domestic Supply and Demand - **Commodity Trading Volume**: On September 17, the trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil decreased compared to the previous day, while the trading volume of soybean meal increased. The national dynamic full - sample oil mill operating rate decreased by 1.82% to 67.82% [13][14] - **Production of Refined Edible Vegetable Oil**: In August 2025, China's refined edible vegetable oil production was 4.506 million tons, a 0.3% year - on - year decrease. From January to August, the cumulative production was 34.054 million tons, a 3.0% cumulative year - on - year increase [14] - **Agricultural Product Prices**: On September 17, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index both decreased slightly. The prices of some agricultural products such as pork, beef, and mutton decreased, while the price of eggs increased [14] 3.3 Macro - news 3.3.1 International News - **US Federal Reserve**: The probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates unchanged in October is 12.3%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 87.7%. The Fed has restarted the rate - cut process, and there are different expectations among officials for future rate cuts [16][17] - **US Economic Data**: Data such as US building permits, new home starts, EIA crude oil inventories, and MBA mortgage application activity index are presented, showing the current economic situation in the US [17][18] - **Indonesian Central Bank**: The Indonesian central bank unexpectedly cut interest rates for the sixth time since last September, aiming to stimulate demand while keeping inflation low [19] - **Eurozone CPI**: The eurozone's August CPI annual rate and monthly rate were both slightly lower than expected [19] 3.3.2 Domestic News - **Exchange Rate**: On September 17, the US dollar/renminbi exchange rate was reported at 7.1013, down 14 points (renminbi appreciation) [21] - **Central Bank Operations**: On September 17, the People's Bank of China conducted 418.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net investment of 114.5 billion yuan [21] - **Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure**: From January to August 2025, corporate income tax revenue increased by 0.3% year - on - year, personal income tax revenue increased by 8.9% year - on - year, vehicle purchase tax revenue decreased by 17.7% year - on - year, and stamp duty revenue increased by 27.4% year - on - year [21] 3.4 Capital Flows - On September 17, 2025, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 7.386 billion yuan. Among them, commodity futures had a net outflow of 6.727 billion yuan, stock index futures had a net outflow of 862 million yuan, and bond futures had a net inflow of 197 million yuan [25] 3.5 Arbitrage Tracking - No information provided in the report

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents a comprehensive overview of the futures market, including spot prices, fundamental information, macro - news, fund flows, and arbitrage tracking. It shows that the prices of edible oils, including palm oil, are expected to remain firm due to supply - demand imbalances. The weather in the US soybean - producing areas may impact crop maturity and harvest, and there are various changes in international and domestic supply - demand situations and macro - economic indicators [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Spot Market - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The closing prices and price changes of various futures such as Brent 11, WTI 10, and CBOT soybeans are presented. Also, the spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, and DCE soybean meal in different regions are provided [1][2]. - **Exchange Rates**: The latest prices and price changes of the US dollar index and multiple currencies against the US dollar are given, including the Chinese yuan, Malaysian ringgit, and Brazilian real [1]. 3.2 Important Fundamental Information 3.2.1产区天气 - **US Soybean - Producing Areas Weather**: From September 21 - 25, the temperature in US soybean - producing states is generally high, and precipitation is uneven. The Midwest has showers, which are unfavorable for crop maturity and harvest [3][6]. 3.2.2 International Supply and Demand - **Edible Oil Prices**: Kenanga Research expects edible oil prices, including palm oil, to be firm in 2025 and 2026 due to supply lagging behind demand [8]. - **Brazilian Soybean Exports**: Anec estimates that Brazil's soybean exports in September will rise to 753 tons, and soybean meal exports will be 219 tons [8]. - **Brazilian Soybean Production and Processing**: Abiove maintains Brazil's 2024/25 soybean production estimate at 1703 million tons, and adjusts the 2025 soybean processing volume to 5850 million tons [8]. - **Soybean and Oilseed Trade**: There are changes in soybean, soybean meal, and palm oil trade volumes in India, the EU, and other regions. Also, Ukraine's rapeseed exports are affected by tariffs [9][10][11]. 3.2.3 Domestic Supply and Demand - **Oil Product Transactions**: On September 16, the total transaction volume of soybean oil and palm oil decreased by 8% compared to the previous trading day. The soybean meal transaction volume also decreased [14]. - **Inventory and开机率**: As of September 16, the national soybean oil port inventory increased slightly, and the national dynamic full - sample oil mill startup rate decreased slightly [13][14]. 3.3 Macro - News 3.3.1 International News - **US Economic Data**: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates is high. There are various economic data such as retail sales, industrial output, and housing market indices in the US. Also, OPEC + will hold a meeting to discuss production capacity estimates [16][17]. - **European Economic Data**: The Eurozone's ZEW economic sentiment index and industrial output data are presented [17][18]. 3.3.2 Domestic News - **Exchange Rate and Monetary Policy**: On September 16, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate decreased, and the central bank achieved a net injection of 40 billion yuan through reverse repurchase operations [20]. 3.4 Fund Flows On September 16, 2025, the futures market had a net inflow of 22.877 billion yuan, including 4.42 billion yuan in commodity futures, 17.337 billion yuan in stock index futures, and 1.045 billion yuan in treasury bond futures [24]. 3.5 Arbitrage Tracking No relevant content provided.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report comprehensively analyzes the futures market, including overnight and spot prices of various commodities, fundamental information on crops, international and domestic supply - demand situations, macro - news, and capital flows. It also presents data on持仓 reports and potential policy changes that could impact the market. [1][2][9][16] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Overnight Quotes - Overnight closing prices and percentage changes of various commodities are presented, such as the closing price of BMD's November palm oil at 4445.00, with a previous - day decline of 0.18%. Currency exchange rates and their changes are also provided, like the US dollar index at 97.60, up 0.08%. [1] 3.2 Spot Quotes - Spot prices, basis, and basis daily changes of different futures contracts in various regions are given. For example, the spot price of DCE's 2601 palm oil in North China is 9440, with a basis of 100 and no daily change. [2] 3.3 Important Fundamental Information - **Weather and Crop Impact**: US soybean - producing states will have slightly higher temperatures and slightly reduced precipitation from September 17 - 21. Midwest rainfall may delay corn and soybean harvests, while rainfall in Brazil's Mato Grosso state may help with soybean sowing. [3][6][7] - **Supply - Demand Information**: Global 2025/26 palm oil production, inventory, and export are forecasted. USDA also provides data on US soybean production, inventory, and other related balance sheet items. [9][10][12] - **Policy and Market News**: Indonesia may increase the biodiesel palm oil blending ratio to 45%. USDA will upgrade its export net sales report system. [10][13] 3.4 Macro News - **International News**: US September one - year inflation rate expectation is 4.8%, and the Michigan consumer confidence index is 55.4. Morgan Stanley expects the Fed to cut interest rates multiple times. [19] - **Domestic News**: China's central bank conducts reverse repurchase operations, and new loan interest rates are at historical lows. Chinese and US officials will hold economic and trade talks in Spain. [20][21] 3.5 Capital Flows On September 12, 2025, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 1.989 billion yuan, with different inflows and outflows in various sub - markets such as commodity, stock index, and treasury bond futures. [25] 3.6 Arbitrage Tracking No relevant content provided.

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the futures market, including overnight and spot prices, fundamental information, macro news, fund flows, and arbitrage tracking for various commodities such as palm oil, soybeans, and crude oil [1][2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Market - The closing prices and daily/overnight percentage changes of various futures contracts are presented, including BMD palm oil, ICE Brent, NYMEX WTI, CBOT soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil. Currency exchange rates and their fluctuations are also provided [1] Spot Market - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes for DCE palm oil, soybean oil, and soybean meal in different regions are given. CNF quotes and premiums for imported soybeans from different origins are also included [2] Key Fundamental Information Production Area Weather - The weather outlook for US soybean - producing states from September 20 - 24 shows generally high temperatures and mostly high precipitation. In the Midwest, temperatures are expected to be above normal in the rest of September, with limited rainfall and potential impacts on crop harvest [3][5] International Supply and Demand - Malaysia's palm oil product exports from September 1 - 15 increased by 2.55% compared to the previous month. India's palm oil imports in August increased by 15.76% month - on - month, while soybean oil imports decreased by 25.27%. Other international supply - demand data for soybeans, palm oil, and other commodities are also provided [7][8] Domestic Supply and Demand - On September 15, the trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil increased significantly. The trading volume of soybean meal also increased, and the oil mill operating rate rose. Inventory data for palm oil, soybean oil, and imported soybeans are presented, along with agricultural product wholesale price indices and livestock product prices [13][14] Macro News International News - The probability of the Fed's interest rate cuts in September and October is estimated. The US September New York Fed manufacturing index is lower than expected. The Indonesian central bank is expected to cut the 7 - day reverse repo rate in Q4, and the euro - area trade balance in July improved [17] Domestic News - On September 15, the RMB depreciated against the US dollar. The Chinese central bank conducted a net injection of 885 billion yuan through reverse repurchase operations. China's social consumer goods retail sales and industrial added - value data for August are positive [19] Fund Flows - On September 15, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 165.79 billion yuan, with different trends in commodity, stock index, and bond futures [22] Arbitrage Tracking - Not provided in the content

Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints The report offers a comprehensive analysis of the futures market, including overnight and spot prices, key fundamental information, macro news, fund flows, and arbitrage tracking, covering various commodities such as palm oil, soybeans, and crude oil [1][2][3]. Summary by Directory 01 Overnight Quotes - Overnight closing prices and price changes of multiple futures contracts, including palm oil, crude oil, soybeans, and related products, are presented [1]. - Exchange rate information for multiple currencies is provided, including the US dollar index and various currency pairs [1]. 02 Spot Quotes - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes for DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, and DCE soybean meal are provided, along with CNF quotes for imported soybeans [2]. 03 Key Fundamental Information Production Area Weather - The future weather outlook for US soybean - producing states from September 16th to 20th indicates higher - than - normal temperatures and above - median precipitation in the west [3]. - The frost risk in the US Midwest has decreased by mid - September due to rising temperatures, and the distribution of rainfall and temperature in the Midwest is detailed, along with its impact on crops [5]. - The CPC predicts a 71% probability of a La Nina event from October to December [6]. International Supply and Demand - From September 1 - 10, 2025, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 3.17% compared to the same period last month, with a 2.70% decrease in yield and a 0.09% decrease in oil extraction rate [7]. - Malaysia's 2025 oil palm planting area is expected to be 5.64 million hectares, slightly higher than 2024 [7]. - Analysts expect Malaysia's September palm oil inventory to increase by 6% to 2.3 million tons [7]. - In July, global soybean oil exports reached 1.2 million tons, and the export and import situations of major countries are detailed [8]. - As of September 9th, 22% of US soybean - growing areas were affected by drought [8]. - As of September 4th, US soybean export sales increased by 622,500 tons [8]. - As of September 4th, US soybean meal export sales increased by 357,500 tons, and US soybean oil export sales decreased by 6,400 tons [9]. - Analysts predict that US soybean crushing in August may decline [10]. - CONAB predicts Brazil's 2024/25 soybean production, planting area, yield, and export volume [11]. - IBGE predicts Brazil's 2025 soybean planting area and production [11]. - Brazilian soybean, soybean meal, and corn export data for last week and this week are provided [11]. - As of September 3rd, Argentine farmers' soybean sales data and export sales registration data are provided [12]. - India's 2025/26 soybean production is expected to decline by 12% [13]. - Canada's 2025 July and 2024/25 rapeseed, rapeseed oil, and rapeseed meal export data are provided [13]. Domestic Supply and Demand - On September 11th, the trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil decreased by 28% compared to the previous trading day [15]. - On September 11th, the trading volume of soybean meal decreased, and the opening rate of oil mills decreased [15]. - On September 11th, the agricultural product wholesale price index and the prices of various agricultural products increased [15]. 04 Macro News International News - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September and October is provided [17]. - US initial jobless claims, CPI data, and OPEC's monthly report on global crude oil demand and production are presented [17]. - The Eurozone's central bank interest rates are provided [17]. Domestic News - On September 11th, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate decreased, and the Chinese central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations with a net investment of 7.94 billion yuan [19]. 05 Fund Flows - On September 11th, the futures market had a net capital inflow of 25.502 billion yuan, including 3.777 billion yuan in commodity futures, 21.101 billion yuan in stock index futures, and 579 million yuan in treasury bond futures [22]. 06 Arbitrage Tracking No specific content is provided in the given text for this section.

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The report presents a comprehensive overview of the overnight and spot market conditions, fundamental information, supply - demand situation, macro - news, fund flows, and arbitrage tracking in the agricultural and energy futures markets [1][2][3] Summary by Directory Overnight Market Conditions - Overnight closing prices and percentage changes are provided for various futures, including palm oil, Brent crude, US crude, US soybeans, etc. Also, the latest prices and percentage changes of several currency pairs are given [1] Spot Market Conditions - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes for DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, and DCE soybean meal in different regions are presented. CNF quotes and CNF premium changes for imported soybeans are also included [2] Important Fundamental Information - The future weather outlook for US soybean - producing states shows that temperatures are generally above normal and precipitation is unevenly distributed. Frost in the US Midwest may lead to a decline in soybean and corn yields [3][5] - As of August 31, 209,033 oil palm small - scale farmers in Malaysia, covering 747,012 hectares of plantations, have obtained MSPO certification [7] - Reuters predicts that the US 2025/26 soybean yield per acre will be 53.3 bushels, with a production of 4.271 billion bushels and an ending inventory of 288 million bushels. The global 2025/26 soybean ending inventory is expected to be 124.77 million tons [8] - Brazil's September soybean exports are expected to reach 7.43 million tons, and soybean meal exports are expected to be 2.11 million tons [8] - As of September 7, EU 2025/26 palm oil, soybean, and rapeseed imports have decreased compared to last year, while soybean meal imports have increased [9] - Ukraine's rapeseed exports may be suspended for at least a week due to customs document chaos after a 10% export tariff [9] - Canada's rapeseed inventory has decreased, while industrial use and exports have increased [9] - The Baltic Dry Index reached a more than one - month high [10] Domestic Supply - Demand - On September 9, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil increased by 78% compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume of soybean meal decreased, and the oil mill startup rate increased [12] - As of September 9, the national soybean oil port inventory increased by 20,000 tons compared to the previous week [12] - On September 9, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and the "Vegetable Basket Product Wholesale Price Index" decreased, and the prices of some agricultural products such as pork and beef also decreased [12] Macro - News - International: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September and October is high. The initial value of the US 2025 non - farm employment benchmark change is - 911,000. The US red - book retail sales year - on - year growth rate is 6.6%. The US NFIB small - business confidence index reached a new high in 2025. The US API crude oil inventory is 1.25 million barrels [14] - Domestic: On September 9, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was adjusted downward. The central bank conducted 247 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 8.7 billion yuan [16] Fund Flows - On September 9, 2025, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 3.823 billion yuan. Commodity futures had a net capital inflow of 2.031 billion yuan, while stock index futures and treasury bond futures had net outflows [19] Arbitrage Tracking - Not provided in the content

2025/9/9 14:24 【国富期货早间看点】美⾖当周优良率为64%⾼于预期 AgRural巴西25/26年度⼤⾖播种已开启 20250909 【国富期货早间看点】美豆当周优良率为64%高于预期 AgRural巴 西25/26年度大豆播种已开启 20250909 国富研究 国富研究 2025年09月09日 07:45 上海 01 隔夜行情 | | 收盘价 | 上日 涨跌幅(%) | 隔夜流跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 马棕油11(BMD) | 4488. 00 | 0. 88 | 0.00 | | 布伦特11(ICE) | 66. 24 | 0. 87 | 0. 36 | | 美原油10(NYMEX) | 62. 46 | 0. 79 | 0. 37 | | 美豆11(CBOT) | 1034.00 | 0. 71 | 0. 88 | | 美豆箱12(CBOT) | 285. 20 | 0. 53 | 0. 78 | | 美豆油12(CBOT) | 51. 40 | 0. 39 | 0. 16 | | | 最新价 | 流跌幅(%) 十日涨跌幅 | | --- | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report presents a comprehensive analysis of the futures market, including overnight and spot prices, important fundamental information, international and domestic supply - demand situations, macro - news, fund flows, and arbitrage tracking. It covers various commodities such as palm oil, soybeans, and related products, as well as macro - economic indicators from both the US and China [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Overnight行情 - Overnight prices and price changes of various futures are presented, including Malaysian palm oil, Brent crude oil, US crude oil, US soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil, along with currency exchange rates [1]. 3.2 Spot行情 - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, and DCE soybean meal in different regions are provided, and import soybean CNF quotes are also given [2]. 3.3 Important Fundamental Information - **Weather Outlook**: US soybean - producing states' future weather shows varying temperatures and precipitation levels. The Midwest has local or sporadic precipitation in the near - term and will be dry later, with potential early frost in some areas [3][4][5]. - **International Supply - Demand**: Malaysian palm oil production in August increased by 2.07% to 1.85 million tons. The drought - affected area of US soybeans increased to 16%. StoneX lowered the US soybean yield forecast. Brazil's soybean exports in August increased, and its September export volume is expected to rise [7][8][9]. - **Domestic Supply - Demand**: On September 4, the trading volume of domestic edible oils decreased, and the trading volume of soybean meal changed. The开机 rate of oil mills increased slightly. Agricultural product prices showed different trends [11]. 3.4 Macro News - **International**: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates is high. US economic data such as initial jobless claims, ADP employment, and Challenger corporate lay - offs are presented. Eurozone retail sales decreased [13][14][15]. - **Domestic**: The RMB appreciated against the US dollar on September 4. The central bank conducted reverse - repurchase operations, with net回笼 on September 4 and a planned large - scale买断式逆回购 on September 5 [17]. 3.5 Fund Flows - Fund flows of various futures are provided, with positive flows into some futures like CSI 500 index futures and negative flows into many others such as crude oil, gold, and silver [19]. 3.6 Arbitrage Tracking No specific content provided.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report presents overnight and spot market conditions of various commodities, including palm oil, soybeans, and related products. It also provides important fundamental information such as weather forecasts, international supply - demand data, and macro - economic news, along with details on fund flows and trading volumes. 3. Summary by Directory 01 Overnight行情 - Overnight closing prices and percentage changes of various commodities like palm oil, crude oil, soybeans, and related products are presented. For example, the closing price of BMD Malaysia palm oil 11 was 4422.00, with a previous day's decline of 0.74% and an overnight decline of 0.43% [1]. - Exchange rate information including the US dollar index and various currency exchange rates against the US dollar are given, along with their percentage changes [1]. 02 现货行情 - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE palm oil 2601, DCE豆油 2601, and DCE豆粕 2601 in different regions are provided. For instance, the spot price of DCE palm oil 2601 in North China was 9460, with a basis of 100 and no change in basis from the previous day [2]. - CNF quotes and CNF premium information for imported soybeans from different origins are presented [2]. 03 重要基本面信息 - **产区天气**: The future weather outlook (September 8 - 12) for US soybean - producing states shows that most areas will have lower - than - normal temperatures and precipitation close to or higher than normal. The Midwest will have local or sporadic precipitation and lower temperatures [3][5]. - **国际供需**: - Reuters survey predicts Malaysia's palm oil inventory in August 2025 to be 2.2 million tons, a 4.06% increase from July; production is expected to be 1.86 million tons, a 2.5% increase from July; and exports are expected to be 1.45 million tons, a 10.7% increase from July [7]. - Forecasts for palm oil production in Malaysia, Indonesia, and Thailand in different fiscal years are given. For example, Malaysia's 2024/25 palm oil production is expected to be adjusted up to 19.3 million tons [8]. - USDA reports a private exporter's sale of 185,000 tons of soybean meal to the Philippines for the 2025/2026 market year [9]. - The Dutch Cooperative Bank expects Brazil's soybean planting area in the 2025/26 season to increase by 1.5% compared to the previous year, and Brazil may harvest a record 175 million tons of soybeans [9]. - Information on soybean sales in Argentina, including cumulative sales and sales to different sectors (domestic oil mills and export industries), is provided [10]. - Forecasts for rapeseed production in the EU 27 + UK, Australia, and Germany are presented. For example, the EU 27 + UK's rapeseed production is expected to be 20.4 million tons, a 0.3% increase from the previous forecast [10]. - The Baltic Dry Index fell to a nearly two - week low due to the decline in freight rates of Capesize and Panamax ships [11]. - On September 3, the trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil decreased, and the trading volume of soybean meal also decreased. The national dynamic full - sample oil mill operating rate increased to 65.11% [12]. 04 宏观要闻 - **国际要闻**: - According to CME's "Fed Watch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 3.4%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 96.6% [14]. - US economic data such as JOLTs job openings, factory orders, retail sales, mortgage application activity, and API crude oil inventory are reported [14]. - OPEC + will consider further increasing oil production at a Sunday meeting, but may also suspend the increase. The final decision has not been made [15]. - Eurozone economic data such as PPI and services PMI are presented [15]. - **国内要闻**: - On September 3, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was reported at 7.1108, up 19 points (depreciation of the Chinese yuan) [17]. - The People's Bank of China conducted 229.1 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on September 3, resulting in a net withdrawal of 150.8 billion yuan due to 379.9 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase maturities [17]. 05 资金流向 On September 3, 2025, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 7.763 billion yuan. Commodity futures had a net capital inflow of 5.08 billion yuan, while stock index futures had a net capital outflow of 12.843 billion yuan [19]. 06 套利跟踪 No relevant content provided.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report The report provides a comprehensive overview of the futures market, including overnight and spot market conditions, important fundamental information, macro - economic news, fund flows, and potential arbitrage opportunities in the agricultural and energy sectors. It also presents data on international and domestic supply - demand dynamics and macro - economic indicators both internationally and domestically [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Overnight Market Conditions - The closing prices and daily/overnight price changes of multiple futures contracts, such as Malaysian palm oil, Brent crude, and US soybeans, are presented. Currency exchange rates, including the US dollar index and various currency pairs, are also provided [1]. 3.2 Spot Market Conditions - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE palm oil, DCE豆油, and DCE豆粕 in different regions are reported. Additionally, CNF quotes and CNF premium changes for imported soybeans are given [2]. 3.3 Important Fundamental Information 3.3.1 Weather Conditions - The future weather outlook (September 7 - 11) for major US soybean - producing states shows mostly lower - than - normal temperatures and uneven precipitation. The possible return of La Niña from September may affect global weather patterns and crop production, with a 55% chance of equatorial Pacific sea - surface temperatures dropping to La Niña levels from September to November [3][5]. 3.3.2 International Supply - Demand - Malaysian palm oil production in August decreased by 2.65% month - on - month, while its export volume showed an increase. Indian palm oil imports in August increased by 16% month - on - month, while soybean oil imports decreased by 28%. EU imports of palm oil, soybeans, and other agricultural products in the 2025/26 season decreased compared to the previous year. Ukraine has started winter sowing and imposed a 10% export tax on soybeans and rapeseed. The Baltic Dry Index dropped to a more than one - week low [7][8][10]. 3.3.3 Domestic Supply - Demand - On September 2, the total trading volume of domestic oils increased significantly. The开机 rate of domestic oil mills decreased, and the port inventory of soybean oil increased. The "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and the "Vegetable Basket Product Wholesale Price Index" both increased slightly [13][14]. 3.4 Macro - economic News 3.4.1 International News - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September is 90.5%. US manufacturing PMI and construction spending data were released. Argentina's finance ministry will intervene in the foreign exchange market. Eurozone CPI data for August was announced [16]. 3.4.2 Domestic News - On September 2, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate increased, and the central bank conducted 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net capital withdrawal. The central bank also announced the liquidity injection of various tools in August [18]. 3.5 Fund Flows - On September 2, 2025, the futures market had a net capital inflow of 20.739 billion yuan, with 1.087 billion yuan in commodity futures (including a net outflow of 757 million yuan in agricultural product futures, an inflow of 45 million yuan in chemical futures, an outflow of 472 million yuan in black - series futures, and an inflow of 2.271 billion yuan in metal futures) and 19.651 billion yuan in stock index futures [21]. 3.6 Arbitrage Tracking No specific content provided.