1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report presents overnight and spot market data for commodities such as palm oil, crude oil, and soybeans, along with important fundamental information including weather forecasts, production estimates, and trade data. It also covers macro - economic news both internationally and domestically, as well as details on capital flows and potential arbitrage opportunities in the futures market [1][2][8]. 3. Summary by Directory Overnight Quotes - The closing price of BMD Malaysian palm oil 09 was 4062.00, with a previous day's decline of 0.76% and an overnight increase of 1%. Brent 09 (ICE) closed at 68.51, down 0.49% the previous day and up 0.26% overnight. NYMEX WTI 08 closed at 66.50, down 1.01% the previous day and up 0.09% overnight [1]. Spot Quotes - For DCE palm oil 2509, spot prices in North China, East China, and South China were 8660, 8540, and 8460 respectively, with corresponding basis values of 220, 100, and 20, and no change in basis compared to the previous day. For DCE soybean oil 2509, spot prices in Shandong, Jiangsu, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 8120, 8150, 8170, and 8090 respectively, with varying basis values and basis changes [2]. Important Fundamental Information 产区 Weather - US soybean - producing states will have temperatures near to above normal and mostly higher precipitation from July 9 - 13. The US Midwest will have local to scattered showers this week, with temperatures near to above normal [4][6]. International Supply and Demand - MPOA estimates a 4.69% reduction in Malaysian palm oil production from June 1 - 30. UOB predicts a 3% - 7% reduction in Malaysian palm oil production by June 30. As of July 1, 2025, the barge rate on the Mississippi River increased by 2%. Brazil has sold 69.8% of its 2024/25 soybeans and 16.4% of its 2025/26 soybeans. Brazil exported 13,420,303 tons of soybeans in June [8][9]. Domestic Supply and Demand - On July 4, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was 2300 tons, a 75% decrease from the previous day. The trading volume of soybean meal was 6.34 tons, a decrease of 10.25 tons from the previous day. The oil - mill operation rate on July 4 was 66.16%, up 1.68% from the previous day [12]. Macro - economic News International News - US President Trump signed a tax and spending bill on July 4. He plans to impose tariffs ranging from 10% - 20% and 60% - 70% on different countries starting August 1. OPEC + will hold a virtual meeting on July 5 to decide on production policy, with an expected 411,000 - barrel - per - day increase in August [15][16]. Domestic News - On July 4, the central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was 7.1535, up 12 points. The central bank conducted 34 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 491.9 billion yuan. China's futures market showed significant year - on - year growth in trading volume and turnover in June [17]. Capital Flows - On July 4, 2025, the futures market had a net capital inflow of 21.144 billion yuan. Commodity futures had a net capital outflow of 2.835 billion yuan, while stock - index futures had a net capital inflow of 23.979 billion yuan [21]. Arbitrage Tracking - The report shows potential arbitrage opportunities for oil and oil - seed related varieties, such as P 2509 - 2601, Y 2509 - 2601, etc [23].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report comprehensively analyzes the overnight and spot market conditions of multiple agricultural products, including palm oil, soybeans, and their derivatives, along with important fundamental information such as weather conditions in major production areas, international supply - demand dynamics, and international and domestic news. It also presents data on capital flows and currency exchange rates, which can help investors understand the current market situation and potential trends [1][2][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 01 Overnight Market - The closing price of BMD's September palm oil contract was 4078.00, with a previous day's increase of 0.74% and an overnight decrease of 0.37% [1]. - Brent's September contract on ICE closed at 68.85, down 0.43% from the previous day and up 0.20% overnight [1]. - NYMEX's August crude oil contract closed at 67.18, down 0.52% from the previous day and up 0.36% overnight [1]. - CBOT's November soybean contract closed at 1048.25, up 0.05% from the previous day and down 0.83% overnight [1]. - CBOT's December soybean meal contract closed at 292.40, up 0.58% from the previous day and down 0.51% overnight [1]. - CBOT's December soybean oil contract closed at 54.54, down 0.96% from the previous day and down 0.33% overnight [1]. - The US dollar index was at 97.08, up 0.34%. The CNY/USD exchange rate was 7.1523, down 0.03%. The MYR/USD exchange rate was 4.2219, up 0.61%. The IDR/USD exchange rate was 16218, up 0.42%. The BRL/USD exchange rate was 5.4176, down 0.57%. The ARS/USD exchange rate was 1231.000, up 0.20%. The SGD/USD exchange rate was 1.2720, down 0.03% [1]. 02 Spot Market - For DCE's September 2025 palm oil contract, the spot price in North China was 8690, with a basis of 220 and a daily basis change of - 30; in East China, the spot price was 8570, with a basis of 100 and a daily basis change of - 100; in South China, the spot price was 8490, with a basis of 20 and a daily basis change of 0 [2]. - For DCE's September 2025 soybean oil contract, the spot price in Shandong was 8150, with a basis of 146 and a daily basis change of - 18; in Jiangsu, the spot price was 8210, with a basis of 206 and a daily basis change of - 18; in Guangdong, the spot price was 8230, with a basis of 226 and a daily basis change of - 8; in Tianjin, the spot price was 8140, with a basis of 136 and a daily basis change of - 48 [2]. - For DCE's September 2025 soybean meal contract, the spot price in Shandong was 2830, with a basis of - 129 and a daily basis change of - 7; in Jiangsu, the spot price was 2810, with a basis of - 149 and a daily basis change of - 7; in Guangdong, the spot price was 2820, with a basis of - 139 and a daily basis change of 3; in Tianjin, the spot price was 2920, with a basis of - 39 and a daily basis change of - 7 [2]. - The CNF quote for Brazilian soybeans was 469 dollars per ton, with a CNF premium of 230 cents per bushel. The CNF quote for Argentine soybeans was 458 dollars per ton, with a CNF premium of 200 cents per bushel [3]. 03 Important Fundamental Information Production Area Weather - In the US soybean - producing states from July 8th to July 12th, temperatures will be near to above normal, and precipitation will be above normal [4]. - In the US Midwest, there will be local to scattered showers early next week, with temperatures near to above normal. The western region will have local to sporadic showers from Friday to Sunday, with temperatures above normal on Friday - Saturday and near to above normal on Sunday. The eastern region will be mainly dry on Friday, with local to sporadic showers from Saturday to Sunday and temperatures above normal from Friday to Sunday. In the 6 - 10 - day outlook, there will be local to scattered showers from Monday to Thursday next week, and it will be dry on Friday. Temperatures will be near to above normal from Monday to Friday next week [6]. International Supply - Demand - The expected palm oil inventory in Malaysia in June 2025 is 1.99 million tons, a 0.24% decrease from the previous period. Production is expected to be 1.7 million tons, a 4.04% decrease from May. Exports are expected to be 1.45 million tons, a 4.16% increase from May [1][8]. - Indonesia will revoke the license of a palm oil plantation operating illegally in a national park [9]. - As of the week ending July 1st, about 8% of the US soybean - growing area was affected by drought, down from 12% the previous week and 9% last year [9]. - As of the week ending June 26th, US soybean export sales increased by 701,400 tons, in line with expectations. Current - market - year soybean export sales increased by 462,400 tons, up 15% from the previous week and 62% from the four - week average. Next - market - year soybean export sales increased by 239,000 tons. US soybean exports were 251,600 tons, down 5% from the previous week and 27% from the four - week average [10]. - As of the week ending June 26th, US soybean meal export sales increased by 703,600 tons, higher than expected. Current - market - year soybean meal export sales increased by 306,200 tons, up 226% from the previous week and 69% from the four - week average. Next - market - year soybean meal export sales increased by 397,400 tons. US soybean meal exports were 238,300 tons, down 15% from the previous week and 8% from the four - week average [11]. - As of the week ending June 26th, US soybean oil export sales increased by 11,800 tons, in line with expectations. Current - market - year soybean oil export sales increased by 11,800 tons, up 193% from the previous week and 156% from the four - week average. Next - market - year soybean oil export sales increased by 0 tons. US soybean oil exports were 5,900 tons, up 2% from the previous week and down 55% from the four - week average [12]. - From June 29th to July 5th, Brazil's soybean exports are expected to be 3.7051 million tons, up from 2.6042 million tons last week; soybean meal exports are expected to be 623,800 tons, up from 514,900 tons last week; and corn exports are expected to be 347,200 tons, up from 200,400 tons last week [12]. - As of the week ending June 29th, Canada's rapeseed exports increased by 47.16% to 173,500 tons from the previous week. From August 1st, 2024, to June 29th, 2025, Canada's rapeseed exports were 9.1055 million tons, a 50.91% increase from the same period last year. As of June 29th, Canada's rapeseed commercial inventory was 1.2112 million tons [13]. - Argentina has completed the 2024/25 soybean harvest, with a final output of 50.3 million tons, a 10 - million - ton increase from the previous year [13]. - On July 3rd, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was 9,299 tons, a decrease of 8,834 tons (49%) from the previous trading day. The trading volume of soybean meal in major oil mills was 165,900 tons, a decrease of 288,800 tons from the previous day. The开机 rate of all - sample oil mills was 64.48%, a 2.11% decrease from the previous day [15]. - On July 3rd, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" was 112.17, a 0.21 - point decrease from the previous day. The "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index was 112.13, a 0.24 - point decrease from the previous day. The average pork price in national agricultural product wholesale markets was 20.29 yuan/kg, a 1.2% decrease from the previous day; beef was 63.67 yuan/kg, unchanged; mutton was 59.20 yuan/kg, a 0.9% decrease; eggs were 7.07 yuan/kg, a 0.4% decrease; and white - striped chickens were 17.18 yuan/kg, a 0.5% increase [15]. International News - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in July is 95.3%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 4.7%. In September, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 33%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 64%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 3% [18]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending June 28th was 233,000, lower than the expected 240,000 [18]. - The US's seasonally adjusted non - farm payrolls in June were 147,000, higher than the expected 110,000 [18]. - The US unemployment rate in June was 4.1%, lower than the expected 4.3% [18]. - The US ISM non - manufacturing PMI in June was 50.8, higher than the expected 50.5 [18]. - The final value of the US S&P Global Services PMI in June was 52.9, slightly lower than the expected 53.1 [18]. - The US factory orders in May increased by 8.2% month - on - month, in line with expectations [18]. - The US trade deficit in May was 71.5 billion dollars, slightly higher than the expected 71 billion dollars [18]. - The US has lifted export restrictions on three major global chip - design software suppliers to China [18]. - Trump's tax - cut bill passed the House of Representatives. The bill will increase the US debt by 3.4 trillion dollars and is expected to be signed by Trump on July 4th [19]. - The final value of the eurozone's services PMI in June was 50.5, higher than the expected 50 [20]. Domestic News - On July 3rd, the USD/CNY exchange rate was 7.1523, a 23 - point decrease (RMB appreciation) [21]. - On July 3rd, the People's Bank of China conducted 57.2 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations. With 509.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases maturing, there was a net withdrawal of 452.1 billion yuan on the day [21]. - China's Caixin Services PMI in June was 50.6, lower than the expected 50.9 [21]. - From January to May 2025, China's service trade imports and exports totaled 3.25436 trillion yuan, a 7.7% year - on - year increase. Exports were 1.40337 trillion yuan, a 15.1% increase, and imports were 1.85099 trillion yuan, a 2.7% increase. The service trade deficit was 447.62 billion yuan, a 135.22 - billion - yuan decrease from the previous year [21]. 05 Capital Flows On July 3rd, 2025, the futures market saw a net capital inflow of 9.344 billion yuan. Commodity futures had a net capital inflow of 7.67 billion yuan (including a 187 - million - yuan inflow in agricultural product futures, a 1.053 - billion - yuan inflow in chemical futures, a 1.376 - billion - yuan inflow in black - series futures, and a 5.053 - billion - yuan inflow in metal futures). Stock index futures had a net capital inflow of 1.674 billion yuan [24]. 06 Arbitrage Tracking No relevant content provided.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The report presents comprehensive information on the futures market, including overnight and spot prices, important fundamental data, macro - news, and capital flows. It shows that various factors such as weather, international and domestic supply - demand, and macro - economic indicators are influencing the market [1][2][16] 3. Summary by Directory Overnight行情 - Overnight prices and their percentage changes are provided for various futures, including Malaysian palm oil, Brent oil, US crude oil, US soybeans, US soybean meal, and US soybean oil. Exchange rate data for multiple currencies are also given [1] Spot行情 - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes for DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, and DCE soybean meal in different regions are presented. CNF quotes and CNF升贴水 for imported soybeans from different origins are also included [2][3] Important Fundamental Information 产区天气 - The future weather outlook (July 7 - 11) for US soybean - producing states indicates that temperatures will be near to above normal, and precipitation will be generally high. The US Midwest will have local precipitation and higher - than - normal temperatures in the middle and later part of the week [4][6] 国际供需 - Indonesia's 2024/25 palm oil production is expected to be 4880 tons, and Malaysia's is expected to be 1910 tons. Global palm oil imports in 2024/25 are expected to be 4210 tons, 1.2% higher than last month's estimate. India's June palm oil imports increased by 61% month - on - month. The SOPA expects a 5% reduction in India's soybean planting area [8][9][11] 国内供需 - On July 2, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil increased by 342% compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills increased significantly, and the overall oil mill operating rate rose to 66.59% [13] Macro - news 国际要闻 - The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 74.7%. The US "small non - farm" data was unexpectedly negative. Other economic data such as ADP employment, Challenger enterprise layoffs, and mortgage application activity are also provided [16] 国内要闻 - On July 2, the US dollar/renminbi exchange rate was adjusted upwards, and the central bank conducted 985 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 2668 billion yuan [18] 资金流向 - On July 2, 2025, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 452 million yuan. Commodity futures had a net inflow of 2.938 billion yuan, while stock index futures had a net outflow of 3.39 billion yuan [21] 套利跟踪 - Not provided in the content

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report presents a comprehensive overview of the futures market, including overnight and spot market conditions, important fundamental information, macro - economic news, capital flows, and potential arbitrage opportunities in the agricultural and energy sectors. It covers key commodities such as palm oil, soybeans, and their related products, as well as major currencies and shipping freight rates. [1][2][14] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Market Conditions - **Futures Prices**: The closing prices and price changes of various futures contracts are reported, including Malaysian palm oil, Brent crude, US crude, US soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil. For example, the closing price of Malaysian palm oil 09 (BMD) is 3990.00, with a previous day's decline of 0.43% and an overnight increase of 0.50%. [1] - **Currency Exchange Rates**: The latest exchange rates and their changes are provided for major currencies such as the US dollar index, Chinese yuan, Malaysian ringgit, and others. For instance, the US dollar index is at 96.63, down 0.14%. [1] Spot Market Conditions - **Futures - Spot Price Relationship**: The spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE palm oil 2509, DCE soybean oil 2509, and DCE soybean meal 2509 in different regions are presented. For example, the spot price of DCE palm oil 2509 in North China is 8590, with a basis of 300 and a basis change of 50. [2] - **Imported Soybean Quotes**: The CNF premiums and quotes for imported soybeans from different origins (US Gulf, US West, Brazil, and Argentina) are given. Brazil's CNF quote is 463 dollars/ton with a premium of 232 cents/bushel. [3] Important Fundamental Information 产区天气 - **US Soybean Main - Producing States**: The future weather outlook (July 6 - 10) for US soybean main - producing states shows that both precipitation and temperature are above normal levels in most states. The Midwest also has local showers and high temperatures in the coming week, with overall favorable but varied weather conditions. [4][6] 国际供需 - **Palm Oil**: In June 2025, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 0.65% compared to the same period last month according to SPPOMA. In May, Indonesia's palm oil exports increased by 53% year - on - year, and the export value soared by nearly 71% to 1.85 billion dollars. [8][9] - **Soybeans**: The US soybean crushing volume in May 2025 was 6.11 million tons. The crushing profit in the week ending June 27 decreased by 8%. StoneX raised Brazil's 2024/25 soybean production forecast to 168.75 million tons. [9][10] - **Other**: Argentina's agricultural exports in June increased by 87% year - on - year. The EU's imports of palm oil, soybeans, soybean meal, and rapeseed showed different trends in the 2024/25 season compared to the previous year. [11] 国内供需 - **Trading Volume**: On July 1, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was 4100 tons, up 413% from the previous day. The trading volume of soybean meal decreased by 49,300 tons. [14] - **Inventory**: As of July 1, the national soybean oil port inventory was 857,000 tons, an increase of 52,000 tons from the previous week. [14] - **Agricultural Product Prices**: The "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and the "Vegetable Basket Product Wholesale Price Index" decreased slightly on July 1. The prices of pork, beef, mutton, eggs, and white - striped chickens also declined. [14] Macro - economic News 国际要闻 - **Interest Rate Expectations**: The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 78.8%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 21.2%. [16] - **Economic Data**: The US ISM Manufacturing PMI in June was 49, and the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI was 52.9. The number of job openings in May was 7.769 million. [16] - **Policy and Trade**: Trump is willing to postpone the deadline for the "Big and Beautiful" bill, and the Senate passed it. US officials are seeking to narrow the scope of the trade agreement, with a deadline of July 9. [16] - **Central Bank Speeches**: At the European Central Bank Forum, central bank governors from the US, Europe, the UK, Japan, and South Korea expressed their views on monetary policy. [17] - **Inflation Data**: The eurozone's CPI monthly rate in June was 0.3%, and the annual rate was 2%. [18] 国内要闻 - **Exchange Rate**: On July 1, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was reported at 7.1534, down 52 points. [20] - **Monetary Policy**: The Chinese central bank conducted 131 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on July 1, resulting in a net withdrawal of 275.5 billion yuan. [20] - **Economic Data**: The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI in June was 50.4, up 2.1 points from May. [20] Capital Flows - **Futures Market**: On July 1, 2025, the futures market had a net capital inflow of 6.836 billion yuan, including 6.238 billion yuan in the commodity futures market and 598 million yuan in the stock index futures market. [23] - **Major Commodities**: The capital flows of various futures products are detailed, with positive inflows in products like CSI 1000 stock index futures, gold, and copper, and negative outflows in products such as CSI 300 stock index futures, crude oil, and iron ore. [22] Arbitrage Tracking - **Arbitrage Opportunities**: Potential arbitrage opportunities in oilseeds and related products are presented, including price differences and ratios between different contracts such as P 2509 - 2601, RM 2509 - 2601, etc. [25]

2025/7/1 10:31 【国富期货早间看点】ITS马棕6月出口增加4.7% USDA预计美豆2025年种植面积为8340万英亩 20250701 【国富期货早间看点】 ITS马棕6月出口增加4.7% USDA预计美豆 2025年种植面积为8340万英亩 20250701 国富研究 国富研究 2025年07月01日 07:32 上海 01 隔夜行情 | | 收盘价 | 上日 涨跌幅(%) | 隔夜涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 马棕油09(BMD) | 3981.00 | -0. 62 | -0. 15 | | 布伦特09(ICE) | 66. 63 | 0. 44 | 0. 32 | | 美原油08(NYMEX) | 64.97 | -0. 15 | 0. 20 | | 美豆11(CBOT) | 1027. 50 | 0.22 | -0. 92 | | 美豆粕12(CBOT) | 289. 50 | 0. 45 | -0. 62 | | 美豆油12(CBOT) | 52. 75 | 0. 25 | -0. 45 | | | 最新价 | 漆跌幅(%) 十日深跌幅 ...

2025/6/25 09:57 【国富期货早间看点】Gapki 4 304 Anec 6 1499 20250625 【国富期货早间看点】Gapki印尼棕榈油4月末库存为304万吨 Anec 预计巴西大豆6月出口达1499万吨 20250625 2025年06月25日 07:28 上海 01 隔夜行情 | | 收盘价 | 上日流跌幅(%) | 隔夜流跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 马棕油09(BMD) | 3991.00 | -3. 37 | 0. 13 | | 布伦特09(ICE) | 66. 84 | -4. 14 | -0. 40 | | 美原油08(NYMEX) | 65. 01 | -3. 30 | -0. 37 | | 美豆11(CBOT) | 1037.00 | -0. 91 | -0. 43 | | 美豆箱12(CBOT) | 295.00 | -0.57 | -0. 57 | | 美豆油12(CBOT) | 52. 66 | -1.83 | -0. 43 | | | 最新价 | 流跌幅(%) | 十日漆跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | ...

2025/6/24 09:56 【国富期货早间看点】SPPOMA 6 20 2.5% USDA 66% 20250624 【国富期货早间看点】SPPOMA马棕6月前20日产量增加2.5% USDA美豆当周优良率为66%低于预期 20250624 02 现货行情 2025年06月24日 07:32 上海 01 隔夜行情 | | 收盘价 | 上日流跌幅(%) | 隔夜流跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 马棕油09(BMD) | 4072. 00 | 0.24 | -1.28 | | 布伦特09(ICE) | 69.73 | -7.98 | -6.93 | | 美原油08(NYMEX) | 67.23 | -9.20 | -7.97 | | 美豆11(CBOT) | 1046. 50 | -1.32 | -0. 69 | | 美豆箱12(CBOT) | 296. 70 | -0.54 | 0. 20 | | 美豆油12(CBOT) | 53. 64 | -2.54 | -2. 03 | | | 最新价 | 流跌幅(%) | 十日漆跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report provides a comprehensive overview of the futures market, including overnight and spot prices, important fundamental information, macro news, fund flows, and arbitrage tracking. It presents data on various commodities such as palm oil, soybeans, and crude oil, as well as international and domestic supply - demand situations and macroeconomic indicators. 3. Summary by Directory 01 Overnight Quotes - Overnight quotes are presented for multiple commodities including palm oil, Brent crude, WTI crude, soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil, along with their closing prices, previous - day and overnight price changes [1]. - Quotes for multiple currencies are also provided, including the US dollar index, RMB, Malaysian ringgit, Indonesian rupiah, Brazilian real, Argentine peso, and Singapore dollar, along with their latest prices and price changes [1]. 02 Spot Quotes - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes for DCE palm oil 2509, DCE soybean oil 2509, and DCE soybean meal 2509 in different regions are given [2]. - CNF quotes and CNF premium changes for imported soybeans from different origins are presented [2]. 03 Important Fundamental Information Weather Forecast - The temperature in most major soybean - producing states in the US from June 22 - 26 will be higher than normal, and precipitation will be close to or higher than the median [3]. - There will be sporadic showers in parts of the US Midwest, and field operations in the southern region may be hindered. The temperature will be close to or higher than normal [5]. International Supply - Demand - Malaysia's palm oil production in May increased by 5.05% month - on - month to 1.77 million tons, and exports soared by 25.62% to 1.38 million tons. Short - term production may slow down, and June production is expected to decrease [7][8]. - A private exporter reported selling 120,000 tons of soybean meal to an unknown destination for delivery in the 2025/2026 season [8]. - Due to frequent spring rainfall, some soybean fields in Arkansas may not be planted, and re - planting of some soybeans is uncertain [8]. - Brazil's expected soybean exports in June are 14.37 million tons, soybean meal exports are 1.97 million tons, and corn exports are 913,316 tons [8]. - The soybean crushing profit in Mato Grosso state from June 9 - 13 was 515.08 Brazilian reals per ton [9]. - As of June 15, the EU's palm oil imports in the 2024/2025 season were 2.74 million tons, soybeans were 13.58 million tons, and rapeseed was 6.91 million tons [9]. - France's 2025 winter barley and rapeseed production is expected to rebound strongly, with rapeseed production reaching 4.2 million tons, a 9.4% increase from 2024 [9]. - On Tuesday, the Baltic Dry Index declined due to lower freight rates for large vessels [10]. Domestic Supply - Demand - On June 17, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was 17,560 tons, a 55% decrease from the previous trading day [12]. - On June 17, the trading volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was 219,900 tons, and the operating rate of oil mills was 67.08%, up 5.25% from the previous day [12]. - As of June 17, the port inventory of soybean oil in China was 780,000 tons, a 15,000 - ton increase from the previous week [12]. - The average prices of piglets, live pigs, and soybean meal in China decreased compared to the previous week and the same period last year [12]. - On June 17, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and the "Vegetable Basket Product Wholesale Price Index" remained unchanged, and the average pork price in the agricultural product wholesale market decreased by 0.7% [13]. 04 Macro News International News - The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in June is 97.3%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 2.7% [15]. - The US NAHB Housing Market Index in June was 32, lower than the expected 36 [15]. - The US industrial production in May decreased by 0.2% month - on - month, and retail sales decreased by 0.9% month - on - month [15]. - Other US economic indicators such as import price index, red - book retail sales, commercial inventory, API crude oil inventory, and the eurozone ZEW economic sentiment index are also provided [19]. Domestic News - On June 17, the USD/RMB exchange rate was lowered by 43 points [17]. - On June 17, the People's Bank of China conducted 197.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 183.3 billion yuan [17]. 05 Fund Flows - On June 17, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 3.222 billion yuan, with a net outflow of 4.602 billion yuan in the commodity futures market and a net inflow of 1.381 billion yuan in the stock index futures market [21]. - The fund flows of major futures varieties are presented, with positive flows in some commodities like CSI 1000 stock index futures and rapeseed oil, and negative flows in others like gold and copper [20]. 06 Arbitrage Tracking No relevant content provided.

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints The report provides a comprehensive overview of the overnight and spot market conditions of various commodities, including palm oil, soybeans, and crude oil. It also presents important fundamental information, international and domestic supply - demand situations, macro - economic news, and details on fund flows and arbitrage tracking. Summary by Directory 01 Overnight行情 - Overnight, the closing prices and price changes of various commodities were reported. For example, the closing price of BMD's August palm oil was 4086.00, with a previous day's decline of 4.48% and an overnight decline of - 0.41%. Brent's August crude oil on ICE closed at 72.50, with a previous day's decline of - 3.56% and an overnight increase of 1.47% [1]. - The latest prices and price changes of several currency exchange rates were also given, such as the US dollar index at 98.12 with a change of 0.01% [1]. 02 现货行情 - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE palm oil 2509, DCE soybean oil 2509, and DCE soybean meal 2509 in different regions were presented. For instance, the spot price of DCE palm oil 2509 in North China was 8840, with a basis of 400 and a basis change of - 90 [2]. - CNF quotes and CNF premium changes of imported soybeans from different regions were also provided, like the CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans at 172 cents per bushel and a CNF quote of 456 dollars per ton [2]. 03 重要基本面信息 - The future weather outlook for US soybean - producing states from June 21 - 25 shows that temperatures will be higher than normal, and precipitation will be normal to above the median [3]. - In the US Midwest, there will be scattered showers, which are not conducive to field operations. The overall weather pattern may be similar to last week, increasing soil moisture in the west but hindering field work [5]. - International supply - demand information includes a 4% decrease in Malaysian palm oil production from June 1 - 15, an increase in palm oil exports, potential cost increases in Malaysia's oleochemical industry due to tax changes, and details on US soybean growth, export, and crushing data [7][8]. - Domestic supply - demand information shows an increase in the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil on June 16, changes in the trading volume and开机 rate of soybean meal, and changes in the commercial inventories of palm oil, soybean oil, and imported soybeans [13][14]. 04 宏观要闻 - International news includes the probability of the Fed maintaining or cutting interest rates in June and July, the US June New York Fed manufacturing index, and OPEC's monthly report on global crude oil demand and production [17]. - Domestic news includes the exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB, the central bank's reverse - repurchase operation, unemployment rates, industrial added - value, social consumer goods retail sales, and real - estate development data [19]. 05 资金流向 On June 16, 2025, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 5.11 billion yuan. Commodity futures had a net capital inflow of 2.867 billion yuan, while stock - index futures had a net capital outflow of 7.977 billion yuan [22]. 06 套利跟踪 No relevant content provided.

2025/6/16 09:56 【国富期货早间看点】ITS 6 15 26.3% EPA 2026年⽣产⽣物基柴油⽬标超预期 20250616 【国富期货早间看点】ITS马棕6月前15日出口增长26.3% EPA提议 2026年生产生物基柴油目标超预期 20250616 2025年06月16日 07:21 上海 01 隔夜行情 | | 收盘价 | 上日涨跌幅(%) | 隔夜涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 马棕油08(BMD) | 3927.00 | 2. 27 | | | 布伦特08(ICE) | 75. 18 | 6. 88 | 2.73 | | 美原油07(NYMEX) | 73. 18 | 6.27 | 1.89 | | 美豆07(CBOT) | 1068. 50 | 2.44 | 0. 26 | | 美豆粕07(CBOT) | 291. 30 | -1. 15 | 0. 03 | | 美豆油07(CBOT) | 50. 61 | 6.48 | 0.00 | | | 最新价 | 张跌幅(%) 十日涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | | 美元指数 ...