Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a comprehensive overview of the overnight and spot market conditions for various commodities, including palm oil, soybeans, and their related products. It also analyzes important fundamental information such as产区天气, international and domestic supply - demand, and macro - economic news, along with details on fund flows and arbitrage tracking. Summary by Directory Overnight Market Conditions - The closing price of BMD Malaysian palm oil futures contract 02 was 3985.00, with a previous day's decline of 1.60% and an overnight decline of 0.13% [1]. - Brent crude oil futures contract 02 on ICE closed at 61.90, with a previous day's decline of 1.32% and an overnight increase of 1.13% [1]. - NYMEX WTI crude oil futures contract 01 closed at 58.11, with a previous day's decline of 1.32% and an overnight increase of 1.36% [1]. - CBOT soybean futures contract 01 closed at 1124.00, with a previous day's increase of 0.25% and an overnight increase of 0.02% [1]. - CBOT soybean meal futures contract 01 closed at 320.50, with a previous day's increase of 0.82% and an overnight decline of 0.40% [1]. - CBOT soybean oil futures contract 01 closed at 50.63, with a previous day's increase of 0.30% and an overnight increase of 1.61% [1]. - The latest value of the US dollar index was 99.83, with a decline of 0.34% [1]. Spot Market Conditions - For DCE palm oil 2601, the spot price in North China was 8540, with a basis of 110 and no change from the previous day; in East China, it was 8430, with a basis of 0 and no change; in South China, it was 8380, with a basis of - 50 and no change [2]. - For DCE soybean oil 2601, the spot price in Shandong was 8370, with a basis of 192 and a decrease of 6 from the previous day; in Jiangsu, it was 8450, with a basis of 272 and a decrease of 6; in Guangdong, it was 8480, with a basis of 302 and a decrease of 6; in Tianjin, it was 8310, with a basis of 132 and a decrease of 26 [2]. - For DCE soybean meal 2601, the spot price in Shandong was 2990, with a basis of - 28 and a decrease of 2 from the previous day; in Jiangsu, it was 2980, with a basis of - 38 and a decrease of 2; in Guangdong, it was 2970, with a basis of - 48 and a decrease of 2; in Tianjin, it was 3050, with a basis of 32 and a decrease of 2 [2]. Important Fundamental Information Production Area Weather - In southern Brazil, soil moisture will slowly decline. In the states of Rio Grande do Sul and Paraná, it will be generally dry from Tuesday to Friday. Temperatures will be near to below normal on Tuesday, near to above normal from Wednesday to Thursday, and above normal on Friday. In the states of Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, and southern Goiás, there will be scattered showers before Friday, and temperatures will be near normal. Overall, December rainfall is predicted to be below normal, but the situation may improve as local crops enter the growing season [4]. - In Argentina's main soybean - producing areas, an overall dry pattern has emerged. Although soil moisture is still high in the early growing season, a dry pattern has set in. A front will bring scattered showers on Friday and Saturday, followed by dry conditions until December. Due to the lack of high - temperature weather, the decline in soil moisture will slow down [4]. International Supply and Demand - ITS reported that Malaysia's palm oil exports from November 1 - 25 were 1,041,935 tons, a 18.8% decrease from the same period last month [6]. - AmSpec reported that Malaysia's palm oil exports from November 1 - 25 were 987,978 tons, a 16.4% decrease from the same period last month [6]. - As of the week ending October 9, US soybean export sales increased by a net of 78.64 million tons, in line with expectations. Current - market - year export sales increased by a net of 78.50 million tons, a 15% decrease from the previous week and a 9% decrease from the four - week average. Next - market - year export sales increased by a net of 0.14 million tons [7]. - As of the week ending October 9, US soybean oil export sales increased by a net of 0.19 million tons, below expectations. Current - market - year export sales increased by a net of 0.19 million tons, and next - market - year export sales increased by a net of 0 tons [7]. - As of the week ending October 9, US soybean meal export sales increased by a net of 35.55 million tons, in line with expectations. Current - market - year export sales increased by a net of 35.84 million tons, a 6% increase from the previous week and a 517% increase from the four - week average. Next - market - year export sales decreased by a net of 0.29 million tons [8]. - As of the week ending November 21, 2025, the US soybean crushing profit was $2.73 per bushel, a 12.2% decrease from the previous week [8]. - The US Agriculture Secretary indicated that the Trump administration is expected to announce a package of aid for US farmers within two weeks [9]. - Anec estimated that Brazil's soybean exports in November would reach 4.4 million tons (down from the previous forecast of 4.71 million tons), and soybean meal exports would be 2.5 million tons (down from the previous forecast of 2.68 million tons) [9]. - Argentina's soybean crushing volume in October was 4,036,171 tons, with a soybean oil output of 794,211 tons and a soybean meal output of 2,976,944 tons. As of November 1, 2025, the factory's soybean inventory was 2,798,823 tons, soybean oil inventory was 296,624 tons, and soybean meal inventory was 1,050,328 tons [9]. - As of November 21, the EU's palm oil imports in the 2025/26 season were 1.12 million tons (compared to 1.36 million tons in the same period last year), soybean imports were 4.66 million tons (compared to 5.41 million tons last year), soybean meal imports were 7.02 million tons (compared to 7.83 million tons last year), and rapeseed imports were 1.51 million tons (compared to 2.53 million tons last year) [10]. - Canada's AAFC maintained its forecast for the 2025/26 rapeseed production at 20.028 million tons, exports at 7 million tons, domestic use at 12.226 million tons, and ending inventory at 2.5 million tons [10]. - The Baltic Dry Index rose for the ninth consecutive trading day on Tuesday, reaching its highest level in nearly two years, driven by stronger freight rates for Capesize and Panamax vessels [11]. Domestic Supply and Demand - On November 25, the trading volume of soybean oil was 2000 tons, and palm oil was 1600 tons, with a total trading volume of 3600 tons, a decrease of 2800 tons (44%) from the previous trading day [12]. - On November 25, the trading volume of soybean meal at major domestic oil mills was 14.26 million tons, an increase of 4.72 million tons from the previous trading day. The national dynamic full - sample oil mill operating rate was 60.27%, a decrease of 1.24% from the previous day [12]. - As of November 19, the national average hog price was 12.24 yuan/kg, a 1.61% decrease from November 12; the average corn price in major wholesale markets was 2.28 yuan/kg, a 0.88% increase from November 12; the hog - to - corn ratio was 5.37, a 2.36% decrease from November 12 [12]. - On November 25, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" was 125.94, up 0.24 points from the previous day; the "Vegetable Basket Product Wholesale Price Index" was 128.13, up 0.28 points from the previous day [13]. Macro - economic News International News - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 84.9%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 15.1%. By January next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 66.4%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 11.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 22.6% [15]. - The US September PPI annual rate was 2.7% (in line with expectations, up from 2.6% previously), the monthly rate was 0.3% (in line with expectations, up from - 0.1% previously), the September retail sales monthly rate was 0.2% (lower than the expected 0.4%, down from 0.6% previously) [15]. - The US November Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index was 88.7 (lower than the expected 93.4, down from 94.6 previously) [15]. - The US November Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index was - 15 (lower than the expected - 5, down from - 4 previously) [15]. - The US October Pending Home Sales Index monthly rate was 1.9% (higher than the expected 0.5%, up from a revised 0.1% previously) [15]. - The US September S&P/CS 20 - City Unadjusted House Price Index annual rate was 1.4% (in line with expectations, down from 1.58% previously), and the FHFA House Price Index monthly rate was 0% (lower than the expected 0.2%, down from 0.40% previously) [15]. - The US August Business Inventory monthly rate was 0% (lower than the expected 0.1%, down from a revised 0.1% previously) [16]. - The US API crude oil inventory for the week ending November 21 was - 1.859 million barrels (compared to 4.448 million barrels previously) [16]. Domestic News - On November 25, the USD/CNY exchange rate was reported at 7.0826, down 21 points (indicating RMB appreciation) [18]. - On November 25, the People's Bank of China conducted 302.1 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations. With 900 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF and 407.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases maturing, there was a net withdrawal of 1005.4 billion yuan [18]. Fund Flows - On November 25, 2025, the futures market had a net capital inflow of 7.469 billion yuan, including a net inflow of 7.242 billion yuan in commodity futures (451 million yuan in agricultural product futures, a net outflow of 269 million yuan in chemical futures, 269 million yuan in black - series futures, and 6.79 billion yuan in metal futures), a net inflow of 21 million yuan in stock index futures, and a net inflow of 178 million yuan in treasury bond futures [21]. Arbitrage Tracking No relevant information provided.

【国富期货早间看点】USDA美豆当周出口检验799,042吨符合预期 CONAB巴西大豆播种率达78% 20251125 国富研究 国富研究 2025年11月25日 07:41 上海 01 隔夜行情 | | 收盘价 | 上日涨跌幅(%) | 隔夜涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 马棕油02(BMD) | 4063.00 | -0. 32 | 0. 20 | | 布伦特02(ICE) | 62.73 | 1.36 | 1. 31 | | 美原油01(NYMEX) | 58. 89 | 1.57 | 1. 39 | | 美豆01(CBOT) | 1121.25 | -0. 47 | -0. 38 | | 美豆粕01(CBOT) | 317.90 | -0. 59 | -0. 38 | | 美豆油01(CBOT) | 50. 48 | -0.26 | 0. 74 | | | 最新价 | 涨跌幅(%) 十日涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | | 美元指数 | 100. 17 | 0. 02 | | 人民币(CNY/USD) | 7. 0847 | -0. 04 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report presents comprehensive information on the futures market, including overnight and spot prices, important fundamental factors, macro - news, fund flows, and arbitrage tracking. It also details the supply - demand situation of various agricultural products and the latest economic data at home and abroad, which can help investors understand the market trends and make investment decisions [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overnight Market - Overnight price and percentage change data are provided for multiple futures products, including BMD's February palm oil, ICE's January Brent crude, NYMEX's January WTI crude, CBOT's January soybeans, etc. Price and percentage change data are also given for multiple currency pairs, such as the US dollar index, CNY/USD, MYR/USD, etc. [1] 3.2 Spot Market - Spot prices, basis, and basis daily changes are presented for DCE's January 2026 palm oil, soybean oil, and soybean meal in different regions. CNF premiums, premium changes, and CNF quotes are also provided for imported soybeans from different origins [2]. 3.3 Important Fundamental Information 3.3.1 Production Area Weather - In Brazil, the soybean - producing areas in the south may face deteriorating conditions as the key growth season for corn and soybeans approaches in December. In Argentina, a drier weather pattern is forming, and soil moisture may gradually decline in the coming weeks [3]. 3.3.2 International Supply and Demand - Malaysia's 2025 crude palm oil production is expected to exceed 19.5 million tons, higher than 19.3 million tons in 2024. Malaysia's palm oil exports from November 1 - 20, 2025, decreased by 40.6% compared to the same period last month. CFTC's position report shows changes in long and short positions for multiple agricultural products. USDA's monthly crushing report provides data on US soybean and corn processing. Information on soybean planting progress in Brazil and Argentina, oilseed processing in the EU, and soybean planting and export in Ukraine is also included. Additionally, data on Canadian rapeseed exports and inventory, and the Baltic Dry Index are presented [5][6][7]. 3.3.3 Domestic Supply and Demand - On November 21, 2025, the trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil decreased significantly compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume of soybean meal also decreased, and the opening rate of oil mills declined. The expected soybean crushing volume in the 48th week is slightly lower than that in the 47th week. Data on pig - raising profits, agricultural product wholesale price indices, and livestock and poultry product prices are also provided [10][11]. 3.4 Macro - news 3.4.1 International News - The preliminary values of the US November S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, Services PMI, and Composite PMI are released, along with the final value of the one - year inflation rate expectation, the final value of the Michigan Consumer Confidence Index, and the monthly rate of wholesale sales. The preliminary value of the Eurozone November Manufacturing PMI is also provided [14]. 3.4.2 Domestic News - On November 21, 2025, the USD/CNY exchange rate decreased, and the central bank carried out 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, achieving a net investment [16]. 3.5 Fund Flows - On November 21, 2025, the futures market had a net fund outflow of 9.73 billion yuan. Commodity futures had a net outflow of 13.39 billion yuan, while stock index futures had a net inflow of 4.4 billion yuan, and bond futures had a net outflow of 0.694 billion yuan [20]. 3.6 Arbitrage Tracking No relevant content provided.

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints The report comprehensively analyzes the market trends, supply - demand situations, and price movements of soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil in both domestic and international markets. It emphasizes the importance of factors such as weather conditions in South American soybean - producing areas, US soybean export demand, and domestic inventory changes in China for market dynamics [8][15][23]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Soybeans**: As of November 21, the CBOT soybean 01 contract closed at 1126.50 cents per bushel, up 0.36% from the previous week. The price was affected by factors like NOPA's higher - than - expected US soybean crush in October and USDA's report of soybean sales to China. The US soybean harvest rate was 96%, slightly lower than historical and five - year average levels. The supply was expected to be sufficient, but the cumulative year - on - year decline in exports widened [8]. - **Soybean Meal**: CBOT soybean meal prices fell. The 12 - contract closed at $315.8 per short - ton, down 1.83%, and the 01 - contract at $319.8 per short - ton, down 1.20%. DCE soybean meal 01 contract closed at 3012 yuan per ton, down 2.59%. The decline was due to factors such as USDA's soybean sales report to China and high domestic inventory. Spot basis fluctuated slightly higher [13][15]. - **Soybean Oil**: CBOT soybean oil prices rose slightly. The 12 - contract closed at 50.28 cents per pound, up 0.26%, and the 01 - contract at 50.61 cents per pound, up 0.26%. DCE soybean oil 01 contract closed at 8190 yuan per ton, down 0.80%. The decline was affected by falling prices of related domestic vegetable oils and high domestic inventory. Spot basis remained volatile [20][23]. 2. Production Area Weather - **Brazil**: In the past week (11.14 - 11.21), rainfall was slightly lower than normal, and temperatures in the southern part were lower. In the next week (11.23 - 11.30), both rainfall and temperatures in the southern part are expected to be lower than normal [25][27]. - **Argentina**: In the past week (11.14 - 11.21), rainfall and temperatures were normal. In the next week (11.23 - 11.30), rainfall is expected to be lower than normal, and temperatures higher [33][35]. 3. International Supply and Demand - **US Soybeans**: - **Crop Conditions**: As of November 16, the harvest rate was 95%, lower than last year's 98% and the five - year average of 96% [40]. - **Export Inspection & Sales**: The weekly export inspection volume met expectations, but the cumulative year - on - year decline widened. The 25/26 annual export sales met expectations, and the cumulative year - on - year decline narrowed [41]. - **Soybean Crush**: In August 2025, the crush volume was 5940000 tons, up 18.19% year - on - year. As of October, the cumulative crush volume in the 25/26 season was 426 million bushels, up 12.8% year - on - year [43]. - **D4 RINs Price**: As of November 21, it was 100.5 cents, down 0.75 cents from November 14 [51]. - **Other News**: The US Department of Energy reorganized, prioritizing oil and nuclear resources [53]. - **Brazilian Soybeans**: - **Yield Forecast**: Various institutions' forecasts for the 25/26 season range from 167.683455 million tons to 178.5 million tons [55]. - **Sowing Progress**: As of November 15, the sowing rate was 69.0% according to CONAB. Different states had different sowing progress and crop conditions [55][56]. - **Export Sales**: Anec raised the November export forecast to 4.71 million tons. As of the second week of November, the cumulative export in 2025 was 102.91 million tons, up 7.49% year - on - year [61]. - **Soybean Premium**: As of November 21, the premium quotes showed mixed trends [63]. - **Soybean Crush Profit & Volume**: The crush profit rose this week. In September 2025, the crush volume was 4.144 million tons, down 11.05% year - on - year [66][69]. - **Inventory**: As of September, the oil mill's soybean inventory was 14.39 million tons, up 12.36% year - on - year; the soybean oil inventory was 526000 tons, up 52.27% year - on - year; and the soybean meal inventory was 2.52 million tons, down 2.79% year - on - year [71]. - **Argentine Soybeans**: - **Sowing Progress**: As of November 20, the sowing rate was 25%. The sowing area forecast for the 25/26 season was lowered [74]. - **Farmer Sales**: The weekly sales of farmers increased. As of the 46th week of 2025, the 2025 sales progress was 82%, and the 2026 pre - sale progress was 6.2% [78]. - **Export Sales**: In October 2025, the soybean export volume was 1.296 million tons, up 1217.5% year - on - year. The export volumes of soybean meal and soybean oil also increased [81]. - **Soybean Crush Profit & Volume**: The crush profit fell this week. In October 2025, the crush volume was 4.036 million tons, down 2.66% year - on - year [85][87]. - **Inventory**: As of November 1, the oil mill's soybean inventory was 2798823 tons, up 10.07% year - on - year; the soybean oil inventory was 296624 tons, down 14.94% year - on - year; and the soybean meal inventory was 1050328 tons, up 7.44% year - on - year [89]. 4. Domestic Supply and Demand - **Soybean Oil Supply and Demand**: - **Import Procurement**: In October 2025, China imported 9.4025 million tons of genetically modified soybeans. As of October, the cumulative import was 95.1637 million tons, up 6.86% year - on - year [94]. - **Inventory**: As of November 14, the port inventory was 9.926 million tons, down 408000 tons week - on - week; the oil mill inventory was 7.4771 million tons, down 142400 tons week - on - week [95]. - **Arrival and Crush**: The arrival volume decreased, while the crush volume and operating rate increased [100]. - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume decreased this week [103]. - **Production and Apparent Consumption**: Both production and apparent consumption increased [104][106]. - **Inventory**: As of November 14, the commercial inventory was 1.1485 million tons, down 0.87 million tons week - on - week [108]. - **Soybean Meal Supply and Demand**: - **Production and Apparent Consumption**: Both production and apparent consumption increased [111]. - **Inventory**: The oil mill's inventory decreased, while the feed mill's physical inventory days increased [113]. - **Trading and Pick - up**: Both trading volume and pick - up volume increased [116]. - **Downstream Demand**: The losses in pig - raising and piglet - purchasing increased, and the pig price and pig - grain ratio decreased [118]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of November 21, the registered warehouse receipts on the DCE were 40357 lots [120]. 5. Domestic and International Oil Futures and Spot Prices, and Spreads - **Basis, Monthly Spreads, and Variety Spreads**: Analyzed the basis, monthly spreads of soybean oil and soybean meal, and variety spreads such as soybean oil - palm oil and rapeseed oil - soybean oil [124][129][132]. - **FOB Quotes**: Provided FOB quotes for soybean oil, soybean meal from different regions [137][139][140]. - **CFTC Positions**: Showed the net long positions of managed funds in CBOT soybean, soybean meal, and soybean oil [142][143].

【国富棕榈油研究周报】马棕出口表现疲软，棕榈油价格下跌 20251124 国富研究 国富研究 2025年11月24日 07:20 上海 油脂油料周度行情 目录 | í | 行情回顾 | | --- | --- | | 1. | BMD 马棕 | | 2. | DCE 棕榈油 | | | 二、产区天气 | | | 1. 棕榈油产区天气 | | ( | 国际供需 | | 1. | 马棕11月预测 | | 2. | 其他重要资讯 | | 四、 | 国内供需 7 | | 1 | 中国 10 月棕榈油进口 . | | 2. | 进口利润 | | 3. | 棕榈油成交 | | 4. | 棕榈油库存 | | 五、 | 国内外油脂期现价格、价差情况 12 | | 1. | 基差、月差、品种差情况 | | 2. | 棕榈油仓单数量和期货持仓量 | | | 3. FOB 报价 | 2公众号 · 国富研究 油脂油料周度行情 一、 行情回顾 1. BMD 马棕 外盘方面,本周BMD 马棕主力切换至 02 合约。截至 11月21 日收盘, BMD 马棕 01 合约收于 4063 令吉/吨,较上周下跌 1.50%; BMD 马棕 02 ...

【国富期货早间看点】USDA民间出口商报告向中国出口销售33万 吨大豆 Anec预计11月巴西大豆出口471万吨 20251120 国富研究 国富研究 2025年11月20日 07:51 上海 01 隔夜行情 | | 收盘价 | 上日涨跌幅(%) | 隔夜涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 马棕油02(BMD) | 4184.00 | 0. 38 | -0.99 | | 布伦特01(ICE) | 63.66 | -1.79 | 0. 87 | | 美原油01(NYMEX) | 59. 41 | -1.92 | 0. 88 | | 美豆01(CBOT) | 1135. 25 | -1. 33 | -0.46 | | 美豆粕01(CBOT) | 320. 80 | -2. 22 | -1. 32 | | 美豆油01(CBOT) | 51. 45 | -1.94 | -0.54 | | | 最新价 | 涨跌幅(%) | 十日涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 美元指数 | 100. 18 | 0. 60 | | | 人民币(CNY/USD) | ...

【国富豆系研究周报】USDA下调美豆出口预估，关注出口需求变化 20251117 国富研究 国富研究 2025年11月17日 07:20 上海 油脂油料周度行情 国量的货 目录 | r 行情回顾 . | | --- | | 1. 大豆 | | 2. 豆粕 | | 3. 豆油 5 | | 二、产区天气 | | 1. 巴西大豆产区天气 7 | | 2. 阿根廷大豆产区天气 | | 国际供需 . in | | 1. 美国大豆 | | 2. 巴西大豆 | | 3. 阿根廷大豆 19 | | 国内供需 四、 | | 1. 豆油供需 | | 2. 豆粕供需 26 | | 国内外油脂期现价格、价差情况 五、 | | 1. 基差、月差、品种差情况 30 | | 2. FOB 报价 | | 3. CFTC 持仓情况 | 2 公众号 · 国富研究 油脂油料周度行情 一、 行情回顾 1. 大豆 图片来源:文华财经 外盘方面,截至11月14日收盘,CBOT 大豆 01 合约收于 1122.50 美 分/蒲式耳,较前一周上涨0.47%。本周CBOT 大豆价格上涨,主要因市场 预期中美贸易关系或改善以及市场担忧巴西南部不利天气或影响部分 ...

Report Title - "Guofu Palm Oil Research Weekly Report: MPOB Malaysia Palm Oil Continued to Build Inventory in October, Focus on High-Frequency Data from Producing Areas 20251117" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The MPOB report shows that Malaysia's palm oil supply and demand both increased in October, with the ending inventory reaching 2464000 tons, and the current inventory pressure remains. Attention should be paid to high-frequency data from palm oil producing areas, changes in import demand from major consuming areas such as India, and changes in biodiesel policies of relevant countries [7]. - The price of BMD Malaysia palm oil rose this week, mainly driven by the increase in the prices of relevant international competing vegetable oils, but the poor export performance of Malaysia palm oil in the first 10 days of November limited the increase in the futures price [7]. - The price of DCE palm oil fluctuated slightly lower this week, mainly affected by the decline in the import cost of domestic palm oil and the slight increase in domestic palm oil inventory during the week, but the increase in the prices of relevant domestic competing vegetable oils limited the decline [12]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review 1.1 BMD Malaysia Palm Oil - As of the close on November 14, the BMD Malaysia palm oil 01 contract closed at 4125 ringgit/ton, up 0.36% from last week. The price increase was driven by the increase in the prices of relevant international competing vegetable oils, but the poor export performance in the first 10 days of November limited the increase [7]. - In October, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 11.02% month-on-month to 2044000 tons, higher than the 5-year average. The SPPOMA estimated that the production in the first 10 days of November decreased by 2.16% month-on-month [7]. - In October, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 18.58% month-on-month to 1693000 tons, far exceeding market expectations. However, high-frequency data from three major institutions showed that the exports in the first 10 days of November were expected to decrease by 9.5% - 49.53% month-on-month [7]. 1.2 DCE Palm Oil - As of the close on November 14, the DCE palm oil 01 contract closed at 8644 yuan/ton, down 0.18% from last week. The price fluctuated slightly lower, mainly affected by the decline in the import cost of domestic palm oil and the slight increase in domestic palm oil inventory, but the increase in the prices of relevant domestic competing vegetable oils limited the decline [12]. - This week, the foreign quotation decreased, the inversion range of the palm oil futures import profit narrowed, and the inversion range of the futures soybean-palm oil price spread continued to repair [12]. 2. Producing Area Weather 2.1 Malaysia Producing Area Weather - From November 8 - 14, except for parts of southern Peninsular Malaysia, eastern Sarawak, and southwestern Sabah where precipitation was 15 - 25mm higher than the historical normal level, precipitation in the rest of the areas was generally at or below the historical normal level by 15 - 75mm [14]. - From November 15 - 21, except for a small part of northeastern Peninsular Malaysia and northern Sabah where precipitation is expected to be 15 - 25mm lower than the historical normal level, precipitation in the rest of the areas is expected to be generally at or above the historical normal level by 15 - 100mm [16]. 2.2 Indonesia Producing Area Weather - From November 8 - 14, except for parts of northern and southern Sumatra where precipitation was 15 - 100mm higher than the historical normal level, precipitation in the rest of the areas was at or below the historical normal level by 15 - 50mm. In Kalimantan, except for a small part of western and northern areas where precipitation was 15 - 25mm lower than the historical normal level, precipitation in the rest of the areas was generally at or above the historical normal level by 15 - 100mm [19]. - From November 15 - 21, except for a small part of central and western Sumatra where precipitation is expected to be 15 - 25mm lower than the historical normal level, precipitation in the rest of the areas is expected to be generally at or above the historical normal level by 15 - 100mm [21]. 3. International Supply and Demand 3.1 MPOB October Report - Malaysia's palm oil ending inventory in October increased by 4.44% month-on-month to 2464000 tons, higher than the same period last year and the 5-year average [23]. - In October, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 11.02% month-on-month to 2044000 tons, exports increased by 18.58% month-on-month to 1693000 tons, and imports decreased by 53.73% month-on-month to 36000 tons [23]. 3.2 Malaysia Palm Oil November Forecast - **Export Forecast**: AmSpec data showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports from November 1 - 10 were 448328 tons, a 9.5% decrease from the same period last month; ITS data showed that exports were 459320 tons, a 12.28% decrease; SGS data showed that exports were expected to be 190533 tons, a 49.53% decrease [30]. - **Production Forecast**: SPPOMA data showed that from November 1 - 10, Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit decreased by 4.14% month-on-month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.4% month-on-month, and production decreased by 2.16% month-on-month [34]. 3.3 Other Important News - India's palm oil imports in October were 602381 tons, lower than 833017 tons in September. In the 2024/25 fiscal year, palm oil imports were 7.58 million tons, lower than 9.01 million tons in the same period last year. The proportion of palm oil in India's vegetable oil imports in the 2024/25 fiscal year dropped below 50% for the first time [36]. - Indonesia may reduce palm oil exports by 11% - 12% in 2026 due to the implementation of a biodiesel blend fuel (B50) containing 50% palm oil. Indonesia plans to launch the B50 blend fuel in the second half of next year [36]. - Indonesia will start the B50 biodiesel road test in early December, and the government is considering whether to implement the B50 mandatory standard only in specific fields. The government plans to implement the B50 blending standard in the second half of next year, an increase from this year's 40% blending ratio [38]. - Indonesia's palm oil production from January - September this year was more than 43 million tons, a 11% year-on-year increase; exports were about 25 million tons, a 13.4% year-on-year increase [38]. - As of November 10, Indonesia's biodiesel consumption this year has reached 12.25 million kiloliters, and the Indonesian government has allocated 15.6 million kiloliters of FAME for biodiesel consumption in 2025 [38]. - CIMB Securities expects that due to a 10% month-on-month decrease in exports, Malaysia's palm oil inventory will increase by 4.0% month-on-month to 2.57 million tons in November; production is expected to decrease by 8.0% month-on-month to 1.88 million tons after peaking in October [38]. 4. Domestic Supply and Demand 4.1 Import Profit - This week, the inversion range of the palm oil futures import profit narrowed [39]. 4.2 Palm Oil Transactions - This week, palm oil transactions decreased. As of the week of November 14, the total weekly palm oil transactions (spot transactions + basis transactions) were 3403 tons, a decrease of 2597 tons from last week, a decline of 43% [42]. 4.3 Palm Oil Inventory - Palm oil inventory increased. As of November 7, 2025 (week 45), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions across the country was 597300 tons, a 0.76% increase from last week and a 10.86% increase from 538800 tons in the same period last year [44][45]. 5. Domestic and International Vegetable Oil Futures and Spot Prices, and Price Spreads 5.1 Basis, Month Spread, and Variety Spread - **Palm Oil Basis and Month Spread**: Relevant data charts of palm oil basis and month spread in different regions are provided, but specific numerical analysis is not given in the text [48][51][52]. - **Variety Spread and POGO Spread**: Relevant data charts of international and domestic soybean-palm oil, rapeseed-palm oil, sunflower-palm oil price spreads, and POGO spreads are provided, but specific numerical analysis is not given in the text [54][56][57]. 5.2 Palm Oil Warehouse Receipt Quantity and Futures Positions - Relevant data charts of DCE palm oil warehouse receipt quantity and 01 contract positions are provided, but specific numerical analysis is not given in the text [59]. 5.3 FOB Quotes - Relevant data charts of Malaysia and Indonesia's 24-degree palm oil FOB quotes are provided, but specific numerical analysis is not given in the text [62]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report presents a comprehensive overview of the futures market, including overnight and spot prices, important fundamental information, macro - news, fund flows, and more. It covers multiple commodities such as palm oil, soybeans, and related products, and also includes international and domestic economic data. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overnight Market Quotes - The closing prices and daily/overnight percentage changes of various futures are presented, including Malaysian palm oil, Brent crude oil, US crude oil, US soybeans, US soybean meal, and US soybean oil. The ten - day percentage changes of several currency exchange rates are also provided [1]. 3.2 Spot Market Quotes - Spot prices, basis, and basis daily changes of DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, and DCE soybean meal in different regions are given. CNF quotes and CNF premium changes for imported soybeans from different origins are also included [2]. 3.3 Important Fundamental Information 3.3.1 Production Area Weather - In Brazil, rainfall may last until the end of this week, and the southern part may return to dry weather next week. In Argentina, precipitation is expected to increase this weekend, but the precipitation potential is small in the second half of November [4]. 3.3.2 International Supply and Demand - Indonesia's palm oil production from January to September this year exceeded 43 million tons, with a 11% year - on - year increase, and exports were about 25 million tons, a 13.4% year - on - year increase. The government is considering expanding the oil palm plantation area by 600,000 hectares next year and will start B50 biodiesel road tests in early December, planning to implement the B50 blending standard in the second half of next year, which may reduce palm oil exports by 11% - 12% in 2026 [6][7]. - India's palm oil imports in October were 602,381 tons, lower than in September. The proportion of palm oil in India's vegetable oil imports in the 2024/25 fiscal year dropped below 50% for the first time [8]. - USDA export sales reports show the export sales, shipments, and new sales of US soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil as of September 25 [8][9]. - CONAB expects Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season to reach 177.6016 million tons, a 3.6% year - on - year increase, with a 3.6% increase in the sown area and a 0.1% decrease in the yield per hectare [10]. - Brazil exported 942,502 tons of soybeans, 433,164 tons of soybean meal, and 1,602,174 tons of corn last week (November 2 - 8), and plans to export 1,361,184 tons of soybeans, 594,397 tons of soybean meal, and 1,600,468 tons of corn this week (November 9 - 15) [10]. - The Baltic Dry Index ended a three - day decline, with all ship - type freight rates rising [11]. 3.3.3 Domestic Supply and Demand - On November 13, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was 30,720 tons, a 53% increase from the previous trading day. The trading volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills decreased by 65,000 tons compared to the previous day, and the operating rate of oil mills was 60.97%, a 1.85% increase from the previous day [13]. 3.4 Macro News 3.4.1 International News - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 51.6%. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics failed to release the October CPI report as scheduled due to the government shutdown [15]. - The IEA monthly report predicts that the total global oil supply in 2026 will reach 108.7 million barrels per day, and the supply of OPEC+ will increase by 1.3 million barrels per day in 2026, with the global oil supply exceeding demand by 4.09 million barrels per day [16]. - The eurozone's industrial output monthly rate in September was 0.2%, lower than the expected 0.7% [17]. 3.4.2 Domestic News - On November 13, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was 7.0865, up 32 points. The Chinese central bank conducted 190 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, achieving a net injection of 97.2 billion yuan [19]. 3.5 Fund Flows - On November 13, 2025, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 5.722 billion yuan. Commodity futures had a net capital inflow of 9.89 billion yuan, while stock index futures had a net capital outflow of 14.694 billion yuan, and treasury bond futures had a net capital outflow of 0.91 billion yuan [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively presents the overnight and spot market conditions of multiple commodities, including palm oil, soybean, and their by - products. It also details important fundamental information such as weather in crop - producing areas, international and domestic supply - demand situations, and macro - economic news both globally and in China. Additionally, it shows the capital flow in the futures market and provides an arbitrage tracking overview. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Overnight Market Conditions - The closing prices and percentage changes of various futures contracts including BMD palm oil, ICE Brent crude, NYMEX WTI crude, CBOT soybeans, etc. are presented. For example, the closing price of BMD palm oil 01 is 4150.00, with a previous day's increase of 0.68% and an overnight increase of 0.27% [1]. - The latest prices and percentage changes of multiple currency pairs like the US dollar index, CNY/USD, MYR/USD, etc. are given. For instance, the US dollar index is at 99.44, down 0.12% [1]. 3.2 Spot Market Conditions - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE palm oil 2601, DCE豆油 2601, and DCE豆粕 2601 in different regions are provided. For example, for DCE palm oil 2601 in North China, the spot price is 8890, with a basis of 100 and no change in basis from the previous day [2]. - CNF premiums, premium changes, and CNF quotes for imported soybeans from different regions such as the US Gulf, US West, and Brazil are presented. For example, the CNF premium for US Gulf soybeans is 250 cents per bushel, and the CNF quote is 506 dollars per ton [4]. 3.3 Important Fundamental Information 3.3.1 Producing Area Weather - Brazil will continue to have rainfall this week with temperatures near normal. Different states have different weather patterns, and later in the week, southern Brazil may become drier [5]. - Argentina may have precipitation in the next two days, but the weather may turn drier later. If the temperature rises, the weather conditions for corn and soybeans may change significantly [5]. 3.3.2 International Supply - Demand - CIMB Securities predicts that Malaysia's palm oil inventory will increase by 4.0% month - on - month to 2.57 million tons in November due to a 10% month - on - month decline in exports, and production is expected to fall by 8.0% month - on - month to 1.88 million tons after peaking in October [7]. - SPPOMA data shows that from November 1 - 10, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield decreased by 4.14% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.4% month - on - month, and production decreased by 2.16% month - on - month [7]. - As of November 10, Indonesia's biodiesel consumption this year has reached 12.25 million kiloliters, and the government has allocated 15.6 million kiloliters of FAME for biodiesel consumption in 2025 [7]. - Analysts' average prediction for the global 2025/26 soybean ending stocks in the USDA November report is 124.21 million tons, with a range of 122.5 - 126 million tons, compared to the USDA's September estimate of 123.99 million tons [7]. - Analysts' average prediction for the US 2025/26 soybean production is 4.266 billion bushels, with a range of 4.152 - 4.336 billion bushels; the average predicted yield is 53.1 bushels per acre, with a range of 51.7 - 54.0 bushels per acre; and the average predicted ending stocks are 304 million bushels, with a range of 187 - 494 million bushels [8]. - Anec expects Brazil's soybean exports in November to reach 4.26 million tons and soybean meal exports to reach 2.47 million tons, both higher than the previous week [8]. - Secex data shows that Brazil exported 1.1774562 million tons of soybeans in the first week of November, with an average daily export volume 75% higher than that of November last year [8]. - Imea data shows that the soybean crushing profit in Mato Grosso from November 3 - 7 was 459.16 Brazilian reals per ton, lower than the previous week [9]. - As of November 9, 2025/26, the EU's palm oil imports were 1.01 million tons, soybeans imports were 4.15 million tons, and rapeseed imports were 1.31 million tons, all lower than the same period last year [9]. - The EU is considering delaying the implementation of its zero - deforestation law by one year to December 2026 [9]. - Germany's rapeseed industry association predicts that the winter rapeseed planting area in 2026 will be between 1.1 - 1.15 million hectares, almost unchanged from 2025 [9]. - On Tuesday, the Baltic Dry Index fell slightly due to a decline in Capesize ship freight rates. The Capesize ship freight index decreased by 2.2%, while the Panamax ship freight index increased by 1.1% [10]. 3.3.3 Domestic Supply - Demand - On November 11, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was 40,000 tons, a 1% decrease from the previous day. The trading volume of soybean meal was 314,100 tons, an increase of 120,500 tons from the previous day. The overall oil mill operating rate was 53.51%, a 2.55% decrease from the previous day [12]. - From November 3 - 7, 2025, the average weekly price of lean - type white - striped pork in 16 provinces and municipalities was 16.04 yuan per kilogram, a 1.5% week - on - week decrease and a 27.9% year - on - year decrease [12]. - On November 11, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" was 125.57, a 0.01 - point decrease from the previous day, and the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index was 127.67, a 0.01 - point increase from the previous day. The average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 18.11 yuan per kilogram, a 0.1% decrease from the previous day [12]. 3.4 Macro - economic News 3.4.1 International News - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 67.6%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 32.4%. By January next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 53.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 27.7% [14]. - ADP data shows different estimates of private - sector employment changes. One series shows a weekly decrease of 11,250 jobs in the four weeks ending October 25, while another series predicts an increase of 42,000 jobs in October [15]. - The US House Rules Committee will hold a meeting on November 11 (EST) to advance the government funding plan for a vote the next day [15]. - The year - on - year growth rate of US red - book commercial retail sales in the week ending November 3 was 5.9%, higher than the previous value of 5.7% [15]. - The US NFIB Small Business Optimism Index in October was 98.2, lower than the expected 98.5 and the previous value of 98.8 [15]. 3.4.2 Domestic News - On November 11, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was 7.0866, with a 10 - point increase (yuan depreciation) [17]. - On November 11, the People's Bank of China conducted 403.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 286.3 billion yuan after 117.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases matured [17]. - The PBC's Q3 2025 monetary policy report proposes to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, maintain relatively loose social financing conditions, and improve the monetary policy framework [17]. - The US has suspended the implementation of the export control penetration rule from November 10, 2025, to November 9, 2026, which is an important measure to implement the consensus of the China - US Kuala Lumpur economic and trade consultations [17]. 3.5 Capital Flow - On November 11, 2025, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 2.554 billion yuan. Commodity futures had a net capital inflow of 5.118 billion yuan, including 795 million yuan in agricultural product futures, 463 million yuan in chemical futures, a net outflow of 622 million yuan in black - series futures, and 4.483 billion yuan in metal futures. Stock index futures had a net capital outflow of 7.44 billion yuan, and treasury bond futures had a net capital outflow of 356 million yuan [20]. 3.6 Arbitrage Tracking There is no specific information provided in the given text about arbitrage tracking.