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国富期货早间看点:ITS马棕6月前15日出口增长26.3%,EPA提议2026年生产生物基柴油目标超预期-20250616
Guo Fu Qi Huo· 2025-06-16 06:18
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report presents a comprehensive overview of the futures market, including overnight and spot prices of various commodities, weather forecasts, supply - demand data, macroeconomic news, and fund flow information. It also provides updates on the position changes in the futures market and the impact of policies on the industry. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 01 Overnight行情 - The closing price of BMD Malaysian palm oil 08 is 3927.00, with a previous day's increase of 2.27%. Brent 08 (ICE) closed at 75.18, up 6.88% the previous day and 2.73% overnight. NYMEX US crude oil 07 closed at 73.18, up 6.27% the previous day and 1.89% overnight [1] - The latest value of the US dollar index is 98.11, up 0.24%. The CNY/USD exchange rate is 7.1772, down 0.04% [1] 02 Spot行情 - For DCE palm oil 2509, the spot prices in North China, East China, and South China are 8670, 8540, and 8480 respectively, with corresponding basis of 490, 360, and 300, and no daily basis change [2] - For DCE soybean oil 2509, the spot prices in Shandong, Jiangsu, Guangdong, and Tianjin are 8020, 8080, 8070, and 8020 respectively, with corresponding basis of 212, 272, 262, and 212, and basis changes of - 32, - 2, 8, and - 2 [2] 03 - US soybean - producing states are expected to have rainfall above average and high temperatures from June 18 - 22 [3] - The Midwest of the US may still receive showers this week, which is beneficial for soil moisture improvement in the western region but not conducive to field operations [5] - From June 1 - 15, Malaysia's palm oil product exports were 662,580 tons, a 26.3% increase from the same period last month [6] - As of the week ending June 10, CBOT soybean long positions decreased by 1533 to 190383, and short positions decreased by 11982 to 119987 [7] - As of the week ending June 10, about 13% of US soybean - growing areas were affected by drought, compared to 16% the previous week and 1% last year [7] - The US EPA proposed a mandatory blending requirement of 5.61 billion gallons of biomass - based diesel (BBD) in 2026, a significant increase from 3.35 billion gallons in 2025 [7] 04 Macro News International News - The preliminary value of the US one - year inflation rate expectation in June is 5.1%, lower than the expected 6.4% and the previous value of 6.6% [16] - The Eurozone's seasonally - adjusted industrial output in April decreased by 2.4% month - on - month, and increased by 0.8% year - on - year [17] Domestic News - On June 13, the USD/CNY exchange rate was reported at 7.1772, down 31 points (appreciation of the RMB) [18] - As of May, M2 balance was 325.78 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7.9%, and M1 balance was 108.91 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.3% [18] 05 Fund Flow - On June 13, 2025, the net inflow of funds in the futures market was 51.58 billion yuan, with a net outflow of 18.16 billion yuan in commodity futures and a net inflow of 69.73 billion yuan in stock index futures [21] - The funds flowing into CSI 300 stock index futures were 35.81 billion yuan, and those flowing into CSI 1000 stock index futures were 18.16 billion yuan [20] 06 Arbitrage Tracking No relevant content provided.
国富棕榈油研究周报:供应压力+宏观扰动,棕榈油价格震荡加剧-20250616
Guo Fu Qi Huo· 2025-06-16 05:30
【国富棕榈油研究周报】供应压力+宏观扰动,棕榈油价格震荡加剧 20250616 2025年06月16日 07:21 上海 2025/6/16 09:57 【国富棕榈油研究周报】供应压⼒+宏观扰动,棕榈油价格震荡加剧 20250616 2025/6/16 09:57 【国富棕榈油研究周报】供应压⼒+宏观扰动,棕榈油价格震荡加剧 20250616 | í | 行情回顾 | | --- | --- | | 1. | BMD 马棕 | | 2. | DCE 棕榈油 | | í i | 产区天气 3 | | | 1. 棕榈油产区天气 | | 三、 | 国际供需 | | 1. | MPOB 5 月报告 | | 2. | 马棕6月预测 | | | 3. 其他重要资讯 | | 四、 | 国内供需 | | 1. | 进口利润 | | 2. | 棕榈油成交 | | 3. | 棕榈油库存 | | 五、 | 国内外油脂期现价格、价差情况 | | 1. | 基差、月差、品种差情况 | | 2. | 棕榈油仓单数量和期货持仓量 | | 3 | FOB 报价 14 | https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/IXwey9tY ...
【早间看点】SPPOMA马棕6月前10日产量减少17.24%美豆当周出口销售料净增10-70万吨-20250612
Guo Fu Qi Huo· 2025-06-12 05:43
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 17.24% from June 1 - 10, 2025, while Indonesia is expected to increase palm oil exports to 25 million tons in 2025. The price of Malaysian palm oil is expected to be supported but may still face pressure during the seasonal production - increasing season. Short - term palm oil prices are expected to fluctuate [6][7][20]. - The USDA's 5 - month supply - demand report for soybeans has a positive impact. The ending stocks of US soybeans in the 24/25 and 25/26 seasons are lower than expected, which is favorable for the soybean market [21]. 3. Summary by Directory 01 Overnight Quotes - Overnight quotes for commodities such as Malaysian palm oil, Brent crude oil, US crude oil, US soybeans, etc., are presented, along with their price changes and exchange rate information for multiple currencies [1]. 02 Spot Quotes - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes for DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, and DCE soybean meal are provided, along with import soybean quotes from different regions [2]. 03 Important Fundamental Information - **Weather Outlook for US Soybean - Producing States**: From June 15 - 19, rainfall in US soybean - producing states is expected to be above normal, and temperatures will be higher than the median. The Midwest will experience a wet pattern, with different rainfall and temperature conditions in the east and west. This weather is expected to affect crop growth [3][5]. - **Palm Oil Production Data**: From June 1 - 10, 2025, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 17.24%, with a 16.71% decrease in yield and a 0.10% decrease in oil extraction rate [6]. - **Indonesian Palm Oil Exports**: Indonesia is expected to increase palm oil exports to 25 million tons in 2025, with production recovering after a temporary decline at the beginning of the year [7]. - **USDA Export Sales Report Forecast**: As of the week ending June 5, US soybean export sales are expected to increase by 10 - 700,000 tons, with different expectations for the 24/25 and 25/26 seasons [7]. - **Argentine Soybean Sales**: As of the week ending June 4, Argentine farmers sold a total of 1.8811 million tons of soybeans, with cumulative sales reaching 60.2493 million tons [8]. - **EU and UK Rapeseed Production**: The 2025/26 rapeseed production forecast for the EU 27 and the UK remains at 20.4 million tons, but there is still a drought risk in Poland [8]. - **Russian Oilseed Exports**: In the first 5 months of this year, Russian oilseed exports decreased by 22% year - on - year to 1.071 million tons, with different changes in the exports of various oilseeds [9]. - **Baltic Dry Bulk Freight Index**: The index rose to a nearly 7 - month high, with increases in the freight rates of various types of ships [9]. 04 Macroeconomic News - **International News**: The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in June is 97.6%. US CPI data for May was lower than expected, and market expectations for Fed rate cuts have changed. There are also data on US Treasury auctions, mortgage applications, and EIA inventory [15][16]. - **Domestic News**: On June 11, the US dollar/yuan exchange rate was adjusted downwards. The central bank conducted 164 billion yuan in 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 5.09 billion yuan. In May, the trading volume and turnover of the domestic futures market decreased year - on - year [18][19]. 05 Key Information Analysis - **Malaysian Palm Oil**: In May, Malaysian palm oil ending stocks increased by 6.65% to 1.99 million tons. Production, exports, and imports increased, while consumption decreased. The price is expected to be supported but may face pressure during the seasonal production - increasing season [20]. - **US Soybeans**: The USDA's 5 - month supply - demand report for soybeans shows that the ending stocks of US soybeans in the 24/25 and 25/26 seasons are lower than expected, which is positive for the market [21]. 06 Fund Flows - On June 11, 2025, the futures market had a net inflow of 3.484 billion yuan, with 2.151 billion yuan in commodity futures (including inflows in agricultural products, chemicals, black series, and metals) and 1.333 billion yuan in stock index futures. The report also lists the fund flows of various futures varieties [23][24].
国富期货早间看点-20250610
Guo Fu Qi Huo· 2025-06-10 06:51
2025/6/10 09:50 【国富期货早间看点】路透预计美⾖25/26 2.98 68% 20250610 【国富期货早间看点】路透预计美豆25/26年度期末库存为2.98亿蒲 美豆当周优良率为68%符合预期 20250610 2025年06月10日 07:34 上海 01 隔夜行情 | | 收盘价 | 上日流跌幅(%) | 隔夜流跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 马棕油08(BMD) | 3919.00 | 0. 20 | -0. 15 | | 布伦特08(ICE) | 67.13 | 0.72 | 0. 39 | | 美原油07(NYMEX) | 65. 38 | 0.94 | 0. 51 | | 美豆07(CBOT) | 1055. 75 | -0. 21 | 0. 02 | | 美豆箱07(CBOT) | 295. 20 | -0. 20 | 0. 24 | | 美豆油07(CBOT) | 47. 41 | -0. 04 | -0. 48 | | | 最新价 | 流跌幅(%) 十日漆跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | | 美元指数 | 98.99 ...
国富期货早间看点:SPPOMA马棕6月前5日产量增19.09% Safras24/25年巴西大豆已销售64%-20250609
Guo Fu Qi Huo· 2025-06-09 07:12
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively presents the overnight and spot market conditions of multiple commodities such as palm oil, soybeans, and their related products, along with important fundamental information, macro - news, and capital flow data. It also analyzes the impact of weather on crop production and the influence of various economic data on the market [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overnight Market Conditions - The closing price of BMD palm oil 08 was 3917.00, with a previous - day increase of 0.33%. Brent 08 (ICE) closed at 66.65, up 2.08% previously and 0.56% overnight. NYMEX crude oil 07 closed at 64.77, up 2.40% previously and 0.39% overnight [1]. - The latest price of the US dollar index was 99.19, up 0.50%. The exchange rate of CNY/USD was 7.1845, down 0.03% [1]. 3.2 Spot Market Conditions - For DCE palm oil 2509, the spot price in North China was 8590, with a basis of 500 and no change from the previous day. In East China, it was 8490, with a basis of 400 and a decrease of 20 from the previous day [2]. - For DCE soybean meal 2509, in Shandong, the spot price was 2840, with a basis of - 159 [2]. 3.3 Important Fundamental Information - From June 1 - 5, 2025, Malaysian palm oil production increased by 19.09%, with a 19.16% increase in yield and a 0.01% decrease in oil extraction rate [6]. - As of the week ending June 3, CBOT soybean long - positions decreased by 3097 lots to 191916 lots, and short - positions increased by 9517 lots to 131969 lots [7]. - The FAO vegetable oil price index in May averaged 152.2 points, down 5.8 points (3.7%) month - on - month but still 19.1% higher than the same period last year [9]. 3.4 Macro - news International News - The US non - farm payrolls in May were 139,000, higher than the expected 130,000. The unemployment rate was 4.2%, in line with expectations [15]. - The eurozone's Q1 GDP annual rate revision was 1.5%, higher than the expected 1.2% [15]. Domestic News - On June 6, the central bank conducted 1350 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 1561 billion yuan on that day [17]. - China's central bank's gold reserves at the end of May were 73.83 million ounces, an increase of 60,000 ounces from the previous month [17]. 3.5 Key Information Analysis - Malaysia's palm oil ending inventory in April increased by 19.37% to 1.866 million tons, with a significant increase in production and the report's impact being negative [18]. - The USDA May supply - demand report increased US soybean exports in the 24/25 season by 25 million bushels to 1.85 billion bushels, and the ending inventory was estimated to be 350 million bushels [19]. 3.6 Capital Flow - On June 6, 2025, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 2.243 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 4.883 billion yuan in commodity futures and a net outflow of 7.127 billion yuan in stock index futures [22].
国富棕榈油研究周报:马棕出口需求向好,棕榈油价格震荡偏强-20250609
Guo Fu Qi Huo· 2025-06-09 06:44
Report Title - "Guofu Palm Oil Research Weekly: Positive Export Demand for Malaysian Palm Oil, Palm Oil Prices Fluctuate Strongly" [1] Core View - The export demand for Malaysian palm oil is positive, and palm oil prices fluctuate strongly [1] Section Summaries 1. Market Review - The report likely reviews the BMD Malaysian palm oil and DCE palm oil markets, but specific content is not provided [4] 2. Production Area Weather - It focuses on the weather in palm oil production areas, yet details are absent [4] 3. International Supply and Demand 3.1 GAPKI 2025 March Report - Specific content of the report is not given [4] 3.2 Malaysian Palm Oil May Forecast - **Exports**: According to AmSpec, Malaysia's palm oil exports in May 2025 were 1,230,787 tons, a 13.21% increase from the previous month and a 12.38% decrease from the same period last year. ITS estimated exports at 1,320,914 tons, a 17.86% increase month - on - month and a 10.86% decrease year - on - year. SGS estimated 1,069,643 tons, a 29.61% increase month - on - month [20][21] - **Production**: SPPOMA data shows that as of June 5, 2025, palm oil production increased by 19.09% compared to May 31, 2025. MPOA estimated that Malaysia's palm oil production in May 2025 increased by 13.07% compared to the previous month [23] 3.3 Other Important News - No specific content is provided [4] 4. Domestic Supply and Demand 4.1 Import Profit - Specific content is not available [4] 4.2 Palm Oil Transactions - No details are given [4] 4.3 Palm Oil Inventory - Specific information is absent [4] 5. Domestic and International Oil Futures and Spot Prices, and Spreads 5.1 Basis, Monthly Spreads, and Variety Spreads - Specific content is not provided [4] 5.2 Palm Oil Warehouse Receipt Quantity and Futures Positions - No details are available [4] 5.3 FOR Quotations - Specific content is not given [4]
【早间看点】MPOA马棕5月产量预估增长3.07%美豆当周净出口销售19.79万吨符合预期-20250606
Guo Fu Qi Huo· 2025-06-06 08:18
2025/6/6 14:11 【国富期货早间看点】MPOA 5 3.07% 19.79 20250606 【国富期货早间看点】MPOA马棕5月产量预估增长3.07% 美豆当周 净出口销售19.79万吨符合预期 20250606 2025年06月06日 07:31 上海 01 隔夜行情 | | 收盘价 | 上日 流跌幅(%) | 隔夜漆跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 马棕油08(BMD) | 3921.00 | -1.16 | 0. 44 | | 布伦特08(ICE) | 65. 29 | 0.59 | -0. 61 | | 美原油07(NYMEX) | 63. 25 | 0. 81 | -0. 75 | | 美豆07 (CBOT) | 1050. 50 | 0. 55 | 0. 17 | | 美豆箱07(CBOT) | 296. 80 | -0. 03 | 0. 27 | | 美豆油07(CBOT) | 46. 62 | -0. 21 | -0. 51 | | | 最新价 | 流跌幅(%) | 十日漆跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 美元 ...
【国富期货早间看点】路透预计马棕5月库存增7.74%至201万吨 Anec预计巴西大豆6月出口1255万吨-20250605
Guo Fu Qi Huo· 2025-06-05 07:46
2025/6/5 10:01 【国富期货早间看点】路透预计⻢棕5 7.74% 201 Anec 6 1255 20250605 【国富期货早间看点】路透预计马棕5月库存增7.74%至201万吨 Anec预计巴西大豆6月出口1255万吨 20250605 2025年06月05日 07:46 上海 01 隔夜行情 | | 收盘价 | 上日 流跌幅(%) | 隔夜流跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 马棕油08(BMD) | 3925.00 | 0. 41 | -0. 63 | | 布伦特08(ICE) | 64. 91 | -1. 07 | -0. 60 | | 美原油07(NYMEX) | 62.74 | -0.95 | -0. 84 | | 美豆07 (CBOT) | 1044. 75 | 0. 36 | -0. 45 | | 美豆箱07(CBOT) | 296. 90 | 0. 88 | -0. 17 | | 美豆油07(CBOT) | 46. 72 | -0. 19 | -0. 79 | | | 最新价 | 流跌幅(%) 十日漆跌幅 | | --- | --- | -- ...
【国富期货早间看点】SPPOMA马棕5月产量增加3.53%交易商预计印度5月棕榈油进口增长87%至60万吨-20250604
Guo Fu Qi Huo· 2025-06-04 11:30
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The MPOB April palm oil report is bearish due to a significant increase in production and higher-than-expected ending inventory [20]. - The USDA May soybean report is bullish as the estimated ending inventory for the 25/26 season is lower than market expectations [21]. 3. Summary by Directory 01 Overnight Quotes - The closing price of Malaysian palm oil 08 (BMD) was 3948.00, with a previous-day decline of 1.44% and an overnight decline of 0.36% [1]. - The closing price of Brent 08 (ICE) was 65.61, with a previous-day increase of 0.75% and an overnight decline of -0.18% [1]. - The closing price of US crude oil 07 (NYMEX) was 63.34, with a previous-day increase of 0.48% and an overnight decline of -0.61% [1]. - The closing price of US soybeans 07 (CBOT) was 1041.00, with a previous-day increase of 0.63% and an overnight decline of -0.22% [1]. - The closing price of US soybean meal 07 (CBOT) was 294.30, with a previous-day decline of -0.07% and an overnight decline of -0.03% [1]. - The closing price of US soybean oil 07 (CBOT) was 46.81, with a previous-day increase of 1.25% and an overnight decline of -0.04% [1]. - The latest price of the US Dollar Index was 99.25, with an increase of 0.55% [1]. - The exchange rate of the Chinese Yuan (CNY/USD) was 7.1869, with an increase of 0.03% [1]. - The exchange rate of the Malaysian Ringgit (MYR/USD) was 4.2531, with an increase of 0.25% [1]. - The exchange rate of the Indonesian Rupiah (IDR/USD) was 16223, with a decline of -0.42% [1]. - The exchange rate of the Brazilian Real (BRL/USD) was 5.6621, with a decline of -0.01% [1]. - The exchange rate of the Argentine Peso (ARS/USD) was 1184.000, with an increase of 0.34% [1]. - The exchange rate of the Singapore Dollar (SGD/USD) was 1.2866, with a decline of -0.11% [1]. 02 Spot Quotes - For DCE palm oil 2505, the spot price in East China was 8630, with a basis of 400 and a daily basis change of -50; in South China, it was 8600, with a basis of 370 and a daily basis change of -30 [2]. - For DCE soybean oil 2509, the spot price in Shandong was 7970, with a basis of 274 and a daily basis change of 0; in Jiangsu, it was 8000, with a basis of 304 and a daily basis change of 0; in Guangdong, it was 7980, with a basis of 284 and a daily basis change of 0; in Tianjin, it was 7910, with a basis of 214 and a daily basis change of 20 [2]. - For DCE soybean meal 2509, the spot price in Shandong was 2800, with a basis of -151 and a daily basis change of -46; in Jiangsu, it was 2800, with a basis of -151 and a daily basis change of -6; in Guangdong, it was 2790, with a basis of -161 and a daily basis change of -16; in Tianjin, it was 2870, with a basis of -81 and a daily basis change of -46 [2]. - The CNF premium for Brazilian soybeans was 160 cents per bushel, and the CNF quote was 439 dollars per ton [2]. 03 Important Fundamental Information - From June 8 - 12, most of the major soybean-producing states in the US are expected to have above-average rainfall, and the central region will have lower temperatures [3]. - The weather in the northern part of the US Midwest is favorable, while the weather in the southern part may hinder planting [5]. - From May 1 - 31, 2025, Malaysian palm oil yield increased by 1.9%, oil extraction rate increased by 0.3%, and production increased by 3.53% [6]. - AmSpec reported that Malaysian palm oil exports from May 1 - 31 were 1,230,787 tons, a 13.21% increase from the previous month [7]. - SGS estimated that Malaysian palm oil exports from May 1 - 31 were 1,069,643 tons, a 29.6% increase from the previous month [7]. - India's edible oil imports in May increased by 37% month-on-month to 118 tons, the highest in five months [7]. - As of May 30, 2025, the US soybean crushing profit was $2.11 per bushel, a 1% decrease from the previous week [8]. - As of May 31, the harvest rate of Brazilian soybeans in the 2024/25 season was 99.8% [8]. - StoneX estimated that the Brazilian soybean production in the 2024/25 season would be 1.6825 billion tons, the second-season corn production would be 1.061 billion tons, and the total corn production would be 1.34 billion tons [8]. - IMEA reported that the expected soybean planting area in Mato Grosso, Brazil, for the 2025/26 season was 13.0082 million hectares, with a 1.67% increase from the previous year; the expected yield per hectare was 60.45 bags, a decrease of 8.81%; and the expected production was 47.1844 million tons, a decrease of 7.29% [9]. - As of June 1, the EU's palm oil imports in the 2024/25 season were 2.63 million tons, soybeans were 12.94 million tons, soybean meal was 17.68 million tons, and rapeseed was 6.4 million tons [9]. - The Baltic Dry Index rose for the fifth consecutive trading day, supported by the freight rates of Capesize and Panamax ships [10]. Domestic Supply and Demand - On June 3, the trading volume of soybean oil was 7000 tons, palm oil was 660 tons, and the total trading volume was 7660 tons, a 20% decrease from the previous trading day [12]. - On June 3, the trading volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was 5.58 tons, an increase of 1.98 tons from the previous day. The spot trading volume was 3.58 tons, a decrease of 0.02 tons from the previous day, and the far-month basis trading volume was 2.00 tons, an increase of 2.00 tons from the previous day. The operating rate of domestic oil mills was 65.33%, an increase of 2.58% from the previous day [12]. - As of May 30, 2025, the total commercial inventory of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil in key domestic regions was 188.79 tons, an increase of 8.61 tons or 4.78% from the previous week [13]. - As of May 30, 2025, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key domestic regions was 36.4 tons, an increase of 2.53 tons or 7.47% from the previous week, and a decrease of 1.95 tons or 5.08% from the same period last year [13]. - As of May 31, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key domestic regions was 75.49 tons, an increase of 5.77 tons or 8.28% from the previous week [13]. - As of June 3, 2025, the port inventory of imported soybeans in China was 574.083 tons, an increase of 7.015 tons from May 26; the port inventory of soybean oil was 71.4 tons, an increase of 4.7 tons from the previous week [13]. - On June 3, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" was 113.73, a decrease of 0.42 points from before the holiday; the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index was 113.89, a decrease of 0.49 points from before the holiday [14]. 04 Macroeconomic News - **International News** - The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in June is 98.8%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 1.2% [17]. - The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in July is 74.3%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 25.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 0.3% [17]. - The US factory orders in April decreased by 3.7% month - on - month, worse than the expected - 3.1% [18]. - The number of job openings in the US in April was 7.391 million, higher than the expected 7.1 million [18]. - The OECD predicted that the global economic growth rate in 2025 and 2026 would be 2.9%, a 0.2 and 0.1 percentage - point decrease from the March forecast [18]. - The API crude oil inventory in the US for the week ending May 30 decreased by 3.3 million barrels, more than the expected - 0.9 million barrels [18]. - The preliminary Eurozone CPI in May was flat month - on - month and 1.9% year - on - year, lower than expected [18]. - The Eurozone unemployment rate in April was 6.2% [18]. - **Domestic News** - On June 3, the USD/CNY exchange rate was 7.1869, up 21 points [19]. - On June 3, the People's Bank of China conducted 454.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 375.5 billion yuan [19]. - In May, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points; the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.3%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points; the composite PMI output index was 50.4%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points [19]. - In May, the Caixin China manufacturing PMI was 48.3, a decrease of 2.1 percentage points from April, falling below the critical point for the first time since October last year [19]. 05 Key Information Analysis - The MPOB April palm oil report showed that the ending inventory increased by 19.37% to 1.866 million tons, production increased by 21.52% to 1.686 million tons, exports increased by 9.62% to 1.102 million tons, imports decreased by 52.17% to 0.058 million tons, and consumption decreased by 24.69% to 0.339 million tons. The report was bearish [20]. - The USDA May soybean report increased the 24/25 US soybean exports by 25 million bushels to 1.85 billion bushels, and the ending inventory was lowered to 0.35 billion bushels. For the 25/26 season, the expected yield per acre was 52.5 bushels, production was 4.34 billion bushels, and the ending inventory was estimated to be 0.295 billion bushels, lower than market expectations. The report was bullish [21]. 06 Capital Flows - On June 3, 2025, the net inflow of funds into the futures market was 17.17 billion yuan, including 12.004 billion yuan into commodity futures (1.332 billion yuan into agricultural product futures, 1.699 billion yuan into chemical futures, 0.774 billion yuan into black - series futures, and 8.199 billion yuan into metal futures) and 5.166 billion yuan into stock index futures [24].
国富期货:美国生柴政策消息扰动,大豆油粕比下跌
Guo Fu Qi Huo· 2025-06-03 09:51
2025/6/3 10:45 【国富⾖系研究周报】美国⽣柴政策消息扰动,⼤⾖油粕⽐下跌 20250603 【国富豆系研究周报】美国生柴政策消息扰动,大豆油粕比下跌 20250603 2025年06月03日 07:11 上海 | í 行情回顾. | | --- | | 1. 大豆 | | 2. 豆粘 ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 3 | | 3. 豆油 | | 二、产区天气 | | 1. 美国大豆产区天气 | | =、 国际供需 . | | 1. 美国大豆 | | 2. 巴西大豆 | | 3. 阿根廷大豆 . | | 国内供需 ……………………………………………………………………… 22 四、 | | 1. 豆油供需 | | 2. 豆粕供需 | | 五、 国内外油脂期现价格、价差情况……………………………………………………………………………………………… 29 | | 1. 基差、月差、品种差情况 . | | 2. FOB 报价 | | 3. CFTC 持仓情况 . | https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/uhsxEU0 ...