Guo Jin Qi Huo
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矿价支撑力度边际减弱
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-06-12 02:03
Report Summary 1. Reported Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The support strength of iron ore prices is weakening marginally [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Market Review - Spot Market Review - The spot price of 61.5% PB fines at Tianjin Port is 765.00 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. Prices at other ports are in a downward state, with a decline ranging from 0 yuan/ton to 10.87 yuan/ton [4] 3.2 Market Review - Futures Market Review - Figures related to the iron ore futures main continuous chart and the basis chart between futures and spot are provided, but no specific data description is given [5]
玻璃日度报告-20250612
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-06-12 01:30
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View The glass futures price is expected to continue a weak and volatile trend due to high inventory levels, weak demand, and the arrival of the rainy season [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Influence Factor Analysis - Supply - side pressure persists: The daily melting volume of national float glass remains stable at 156,800 tons, with both cold - repair and复产 production lines coexisting, and supply pressure has not significantly eased. The rumored transformation of coal - fired production lines in Shahe to "coal - made gas" may reduce regional costs if implemented, but currently, it only affects sentiment and actual supply has not changed significantly [5]. - Demand is weak: The rainy season affects factory inventory shipments and transactions, and deep - processing enterprises are cautious in purchasing. Although there are expectations of real - estate policy support, the transmission to terminal demand has not been evident [6]. - High inventory: The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises increased by 3.09% month - on - month, rising by 2.09 million weight boxes to 69.754 million weight boxes, and high inventory continues to suppress prices [7]. Market Outlook Given the relatively high glass inventory, weak demand, and the arrival of the rainy - season off - peak, the glass futures price is expected to continue a weak and volatile trend [8].
国金期货沪铝日度报告-20250605
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-06-05 10:48
Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a daily analysis of Shanghai Aluminum futures, covering the market situation on June 3, 2025 [1][3] - The research analyst is Cao Baiquan with consulting certificate number Z0019820 [2] Group 2: Market Performance - On June 3, 2025, the price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract showed a downward trend, and the trading volume increased compared to the previous trading day [3] - The position of al2507 was 191,144 lots, and the trading volume was 183,523 lots [3] Group 3: Macro - economic Factors - The Trump administration in the US announced to raise steel and aluminum tariffs to 50%, which intensified global trade uncertainty and put short - term pressure on aluminum prices [3] - China's manufacturing PMI rebounded in May, and export indicators improved, partially offsetting overseas negatives and limiting the decline of aluminum prices [3] Group 4: Supply and Demand - China's electrolytic aluminum operating capacity reached 4,319 million tons, approaching the 4,500 million - ton policy ceiling. There was a small - scale resumption of production during the wet season in the southwest, but overall flexibility was insufficient [3] - Orders from the State Grid drove the high - level operation rate of aluminum cables, supporting short - term rigid demand [3] - In the photovoltaic sector, profile orders declined significantly after the end of the rush - installation period. Automotive aluminum demand is expected to weaken in mid - to - late June, and aluminum use in the construction and real estate sector remained sluggish [3] Group 5: Technical Analysis - The Shanghai Aluminum main contract 2507 showed a medium - sized negative candlestick during the day, breaking below the moving average system. The MACD indicator formed a death cross, the BOLL line fell below the middle track, and funds slightly reduced positions, indicating strong short - selling power during the day [3] Group 6: Market Outlook - In the short term, macro - level tariff and trade frictions have a negative impact on aluminum prices. If the off - season demand is too weak, prices may continue to decline [3] - Considering the support of low inventory and export rush on prices, aluminum prices are expected to continue to fluctuate within a range [3]
国金期货沪银日度报告-20250605
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-06-05 10:47
Group 1: Report Summary - Report on the daily situation of Shanghai Silver futures on June 4, 2025, with a focus on price, trading volume,持仓量, economic data, and tariff policies [3] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The risk and uncertainty of the US economy are rising, and the futures price may fluctuate strongly in the near future. Attention should be paid to global trade and geopolitical negotiations [3] Group 4: Market Data - The opening price of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 8,475 yuan/kg, the lowest price was 8,451 yuan/kg, the highest price was 8,498 yuan/kg, and the closing price was 8,463 yuan/kg [3] - The trading volume was 449,000 lots, and the 持仓量 was 380,000 lots, an increase of 9,481 lots from the previous trading day [3] Group 5: US Economic Data - The number of JOLTS job openings in the US in April was 7.39 million, higher than the previous value of 7.2 million and the expected 7.1 million [3] - The ADP employment in the US in May increased by 37,000, with an expected increase of 110,000 and a previous increase of 62,000 [3] Group 6: Tariff Policy - Trump's new round of steel and aluminum tariff policy officially took effect on Wednesday, raising the tax rate from 25% to 50%, pushing the "trade worry sentiment" to the forefront of the market again [3]
国金期货沪铅日度报告-20250605
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-06-05 10:41
撰写品种:沪铅 撰写时间:2025/6/3 回顾周期:日度 研究员: 曹柏泉 咨询证号(Z0019820) 沪铅日度报告 2025 年 6 月 3 日,沪铅 2507 合约,开盘价 16650 元/吨,最高价 16685 元/吨, 最低价 16525 元/吨,均价 16575 元/吨,持仓 55547 手,日增 2217 手,成交量 28541 手。 宏观方面,国内 5 月财新 PMI 跌至 48.3,处于 2022 年 9 月以来新低。美国 5 月 ISF 制造业连续三个月萎缩,来到 48.5,低于预期和前值。 供应端,原生铅生产基本稳定,广西地区结束检修使得产量提升,但华北地区计划 6 月初复产,整体处于复产与检修共存双局面。再生铅企业开工率 36.71%,虽然有部分 复产,但安徽地区周末检修,并且原料短缺带来的挺价,导致提产预期不强。 需求端,下游蓄电池消费淡季仍在,企业开工率下滑,库存偏高,需求疲弱。 综合而言,废电瓶处于负反馈压力与货源紧张交织的状态,再生铅供应维持低位, 消费淡季效应将继续显现,对铅价施压,短期铅价或延续偏弱震荡。 公司热线:028 6130 3163 研究所邮箱:institut ...
国金期货苹果日报-20250603
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-06-03 11:59
Group 1: Report General Information - Report writing variety: Apple [1] - Writing time: May 30, 2025 [1] - Review cycle: Daily report [1] - Researcher: Qi Jianhua [1] - Consulting license number: Z0017731 [1] Group 2: Futures Market Review - Apple futures slightly declined. The opening price of the main AP2510 contract was 7,640 yuan/ton, the highest price was 7,678 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 7,592 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 7,675 yuan/ton. The settlement price was 7,636 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton from yesterday. The trading volume was 53,199 lots, a decrease of 9,306 lots from yesterday, and the open interest was 105,238 lots, a decrease of 1,615 lots from the previous day [5] Group 3: Spot Fundamental Situation Production Area Market - In Shandong Yiyuan production area on May 30, the middle - price of 70 general goods, 75 general goods, and sub - fruits in the apple warehouse remained unchanged compared to the previous period. The replenishment enthusiasm of merchants in the production area was okay, and the market transaction was stable. The new - season apples had good fruit - setting performance, and fruit farmers were in the large - scale bagging stage. In Shaanxi Baishui production area, the warehouse inventory was finished, and the new - season apples also entered the large - scale bagging stage [6][7] Sales Area Market - The number of apple trucks arriving at the Guangdong wholesale market increased compared to yesterday. The actual transaction price in the market was based on quality. Recently, the number of trucks arriving at the market decreased. With the hot weather, the impact of seasonal fruits was obvious, the apple sales were average, and secondary and tertiary wholesalers purchased on demand with little backlog in the transfer warehouse [7] Group 4: Important Data Tracking - The report provided the mainstream transaction middle - prices of late Fuji apples of different regions, diameters, and grades on May 30, with a note that some grades might differ slightly from actual goods, and the actual price was subject to the quality of the spot [8][10] Group 5: Market Outlook - Currently, due to the hot weather, the listing of melons had an obvious impact on the apple market, and the apple sales were average. On the futures market, the price of the 2510 contract was supported by the 5 - day moving average, continuing the rebound trend of the previous trading day with a strong intraday performance. In the short term, the rebound of apple futures prices might be limited, and the prices would mainly show a wide - range low - level oscillating trend [11][12]
国金期货沪锌日度报告-20250528
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-05-28 11:16
Report Overview - Reported variety: Shanghai Zinc [1] - Writing time: May 27, 2025 [1] - Review period: Daily [1] - Researcher: Cao Baiquan [2] - Consultation license number: Z0019820 [2] 1. Market Performance - On May 27, 2025, the closing price of the main Shanghai Zinc contract ZN2507 was 22,330 yuan/ton, up 0.61% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 38.46 billion yuan and an open interest of 121,600 lots [3] 2. Supply Situation - The processing fee (TC) of domestic zinc smelters is on an upward trend, and it is expected to continue rising in June, with stable smelting profits [3] - Maintenance of zinc mines in the Southwest region has affected the concentrate output by over 1,000 metal tons, and a smelter in the South China region has extended its maintenance period, leading to a short - term local supply contraction [3] 3. Demand Situation - Orders of processing enterprises have not shown significant growth, indicating weak restocking motivation in the manufacturing industry [3] - Terminal procurement is mainly for刚需, and demand in the real estate and infrastructure sectors is weak [3] 4. Overall Outlook - Low inventory supports prices, but the expectation of ample supply limits the upside potential. In the short term, the market will be range - bound [3] - Attention should be paid to the progress of maintenance resumption in the Southwest region and changes in LME inventory [3]
国金期货沪铝日度报告-20250528
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-05-28 11:15
撰写品种:沪铝 撰写时间:2025/5/27 回顾周期:日度 2025 年 5 月 27 日,沪铝主力合约震荡下跌走势,成交量相比较上个交易日放量。 al2507 持仓量 202,473 手,成交量 199,922 手。 总体来看,短期多空博弈加剧,成本刚性支撑价格,但需求淡季及出口疲软限制上 行空间,预计价格继续维持震荡为主。 公司热线:028 6130 3163 研究所邮箱:institute@gjqh.com.cn 投诉:4006821188 图1:沪铝期货主力合约al2507 走势图 供需方面,国内电解铝运行产能持稳,云南、四川等地新增产能逐步投产,供应 端接近行业天花板,短期增量有限。光伏、新能源汽车等工业用铝需求保持 15%增 速,但传统型材、板带箔出口表现低迷。 技术方面,沪铝 2507 合约日线背靠 60 日线压力下穿至 20 日均线。成交量急剧 放大,持仓量减少,资金撤离明显。但低库存支撑近月合约抗跌性。 研究员: 曹柏泉 咨询证号(Z0019820) 沪铝日度报告 宏观方面,美联储政策路径的不确定性持续主导市场情绪,叠加美国阵亡将士纪念 日假期导致美股休市,市场流动性边际收紧。此外,美国主 ...
沪镍日度报告-20250522
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-05-22 12:04
Group 1: Report General Information - The report is about nickel, written on May 21, 2025, with a daily review cycle [1] - The researcher is Cao Baiquan with consultation certificate number (Z0019820), and it's a daily report on Shanghai nickel [2] Group 2: Market Data - On May 21, 2025, the opening price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 123,450 yuan/ton, the highest was 123,800 yuan/ton, the lowest was 122,960 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 123,280 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.05%. The trading volume was 107,562 lots, and the open interest was 59,648 lots [3] - On May 20, 2025, the People's Bank of China cut the 1 - year and 5 - year LPR by 10 basis points each, while Fed officials stated they prefer only one rate cut this year, and Moody's downgraded the US sovereign credit rating, increasing market risk - aversion [3] - On May 21, 2025, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 123,400 - 125,650 yuan/ton, with an average price of 124,525 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium range of Jinchuan No.1 nickel was 2,000 - 2,200 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 2,100 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous day. The premium range of Russian nickel was 100 - 300 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [3] - As of May 20, 2025, the LME nickel inventory was 201,786 tons, down 312 tons from the previous trading day, and the注销仓单占比 was 11.28%. Seasonally, the current inventory is at a relatively high level compared to the past five years [3] Group 3: Core View - Overall, there is an expectation of cost relaxation for nickel, combined with weak spot demand, inventory may re - enter the accumulation cycle, and nickel prices may continue the bearish pattern [4]
国金期货玉米周报-20250521
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-05-21 06:13
028 6130 3163 institute@gjqh.com.cn 4006821188 028 6130 3163 institute@gjqh.com.cn 4006821188 ...