Guo Jin Qi Huo
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国金期货苹果期货日报-20250724
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-07-24 11:45
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The apple market is currently in a state of light trading. The short - term apple price is expected to remain stable, and in the short - term, the price will show a slightly stronger oscillatory trend. The new - season apple bagging quantity is slightly lower than the previous season, and the early - maturing apple purchase price in the northwest region is higher than the same period last year, which may support the opening price of late - maturing Red Fuji. However, it is currently the off - season for apple consumption, and weak demand may limit the upside potential of the market [7][9][13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Quotes**: On July 23, 2025, the apple futures market showed a slight increase. The closing price of the main apple futures contract AP2510 was 7,956 yuan/ton, up 58 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a change of +0.73%. The trading volume was 46,397 lots, a decrease of 4,132 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 91,030 lots, a decrease of 1,666 lots from the previous trading day [2]. - **Futures Market Data**: Besides the AP2510 contract, the closing price of the AP2601 contract was 7,817 yuan/ton, up 38 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.49%. The trading volume was 2,718 lots, and the open interest was 9,817 lots, a decrease of 117 lots from the previous day [4][5]. - **Spot Market Data**: On July 23, the prices in the main apple spot markets showed an overall oscillatory upward trend [6]. 3.2 Influencing Factors - **Industry Events**: Recently, due to the impact of seasonal fruits and a decline in exports and e - commerce sales, the early - maturing apples in production areas such as Dali and Wanrong are being normally purchased at stable prices. The overall apple market remains in a state of light trading. The inventory trading is concentrated in the Shandong production area, with slow sales, but the low remaining inventory and high preserved fruit prices provide bottom - line support [7]. 3.3 Technical Analysis - **Price Position**: On July 23, the closing price of the AP2510 futures was 7,956 yuan/ton, which was at the mid - to - high level of the price range in the past 30 days, indicating short - term price oscillation [12]. - **K - line Pattern**: On July 23, the K - line closed as a positive line. Combined with the K - lines of the previous few days, it formed an oscillatory upward pattern [12]. 3.4 Market Outlook - The new - season apple bagging quantity is slightly lower than the previous season, and the early - maturing apple purchase price in the northwest region is higher than the same period last year, which may support the opening price of late - maturing Red Fuji. Currently, it is the off - season for apple consumption, and weak demand may limit the upside potential of the market. In the short - term, the price will show a slightly stronger oscillatory trend [9][13].
国金期货铜日度报告:铜价维持高位盘整-20250724
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-07-24 11:44
Group 1 - Copper Futures Quotes - The latest price of Shanghai Copper Weighted is 79,700, with a daily increase of 440 and a gain of 0.56%, and an open interest of 511,930 with a daily decrease of 1,420 [8] - The latest price of Shanghai Copper Main - Continuous is 79,740, with a daily increase of 480 and a gain of 0.61%, and an open interest of 166,726 with a daily increase of 9,780 [8] - The latest price of Shanghai Copper 2508 is 79,670, with a daily increase of 440 and a gain of 0.56%, and an open interest of 121,286 with a daily decrease of 16,331 [8] - The latest price of Shanghai Copper 2509 is 79,740, with a daily increase of 480 and a gain of 0.61%, and an open interest of 166,726 with a daily increase of 9,780 [8] - The latest price of Shanghai Copper 2510 is 79,770, with a daily increase of 380 and a gain of 0.48%, and an open interest of 83,373 with a daily increase of 3,768 [8] - The latest price of Shanghai Copper 2511 is 79,730, with a daily increase of 290 and a gain of 0.37%, and an open interest of 37,797 with a daily increase of 317 [8] - The latest price of Shanghai Copper 2512 is 79,680, with a daily increase of 480 and a gain of 0.61%, and an open interest of 37,003 with a daily increase of 508 [8] - The latest price of Shanghai Copper 2601 is 79,590, with a daily increase of 490 and a gain of 0.62%, and an open interest of 21,614 with a daily increase of 358 [8] - The latest price of Shanghai Copper 2602 is 79,570, with a daily increase of 430 and a gain of 0.54%, and an open interest of 19,433 with a daily increase of 50 [8]
国金期货黄金日报:欧盟酝酿“核选项”反制美国关税金价走高-20250724
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-07-24 11:43
Group 1: Market Data of Gold Futures Contracts - The latest price of Shanghai Gold Weighted is 785.82 [5] - The latest price of Shanghai Gold Main Continuous Contract is 784.84, with a trading volume of 215,395, a gain of 5.00 (0.64%), an open - interest of 216,722, and a daily increase in open - interest of 5,483 [5] - The latest price of Shanghai Gold 2508 is 782.50, with a trading volume of 25,775, a gain of 4.84 (0.62%), an open - interest of 42,972, and a daily decrease in open - interest of 2,523 [5] - The latest price of Shanghai Gold 2509 is 783.46, with a trading volume of 2,046, a gain of 5.00 (0.64%), an open - interest of 8,691, and a daily increase in open - interest of 403 [5] - The latest price of Shanghai Gold 2510 is 784.84, with a trading volume of 215,395, a gain of 5.00 (0.64%), an open - interest of 216,722, and a daily increase in open - interest of 5,483 [5] - The data of Shanghai Gold 2511 is incomplete [5] - The latest price of Shanghai Gold 2512 is 786.72 [5]
国金期货纯碱期货日报-20250724
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-07-24 11:41
Report Summary 1. Report Information - Research variety: Soda ash - Report cycle: Daily report - Date of composition: July 23, 2025 [1] 2. Futures Market 2.1 Contract Quotes - On July 23, 2025, the soda ash futures faced pressure and pulled back. The opening price of Soda Ash 2509 (SA509) was 1376 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1394 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1300 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 1338 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton or 0.68% from the previous trading day's settlement price. The trading volume was 3.307 billion hands, an increase of 197 million hands from the previous day, and the open interest was 1.037 billion hands, a decrease of 37.3 million hands from the previous day [2] 2.2 Variety Prices - The report provides the opening and highest prices of Soda Ash 2508, Soda Ash 2509, and Soda Ash 2601 contracts on July 23, 2025 [5] 3. Spot Market - The report presents the domestic soda ash price summary table on July 23, 2025, showing price changes compared to July 22, 2025 [6] 4. Influencing Factors 4.1 Policy - related - Policy expectations such as the steady - growth plan for the building materials industry and the "city - specific policies" in the real estate sector, combined with low inventory, have driven market sentiment up [7] 4.2 Fundamental Analysis - Supply side: The weekly output was 568,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.61%. However, summer maintenance led to supply contraction, and the release progress of new capacity from Yuanxing was slower than expected. - Demand side: The daily melting volume of float glass was 168,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.76%, and the rigid demand for heavy soda ash procurement increased [8] 4.3 Technical Analysis - The price of the Soda Ash 2509 (SA509) contract deviated from the 5 - day moving average today, and there may be a need for technical repair. However, the trend indicator still maintained a bullish signal, indicating that the short - term trend is still upward, but the repair demand may cause the price to pull back to some extent [9] 5. Market Outlook - The current soda ash futures price may be supported by policies and maintenance factors and remain in a relatively strong state. In the long run, Yuanxing's second - phase 2.8 million - ton capacity is expected to be put into production in August, which will increase market supply, and the soda ash futures price may face valuation pressure. In addition, if the inventory inflection point appears, that is, the inventory starts to rise, it may also lead to a price pullback. Traders need to beware of the short - selling risk brought about by the accelerated release of Yuanxing's capacity or the increase in inventory [12]
国金期货豆一期货日报-20250724
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-07-24 11:40
Market Overview and Market Review Market Overall Performance - On July 22, 2025, the main continuous contract of DCE soybean No. 1 futures continued its rebound and upward trend. The opening price was 4,204 yuan/ton, the highest price was 4,238 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 4,184 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 4,232 yuan/ton, up 56 yuan/ton or 1.34% from the previous day. The trading volume was 146,103 lots, the open interest was 181,087 lots, and the daily increase in open interest was 8,089 lots [2]. Futures Market Data - The report provides detailed futures market data for different contracts of soybean No. 1, including opening price, highest price, lowest price, closing price, previous settlement price, settlement price, price change, trading volume, open interest, change in open interest, and trading value. The total trading volume of soybean No. 1 futures was 189,592 lots, the total open interest was 309,914 lots, and the total trading value was 795,149.28 million yuan [2]. Spot Market Data - According to Wind data, the average price of domestic soybeans on the day was 4,017 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 0.25%. In recent days, the spot price of soybeans has been stable with a slight decline. The soybean inventory at major ports was 6.7453 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 1.29%. As imported soybeans arrive at ports successively, the soybean inventory at ports continues to accumulate [4]. Influencing Factor Analysis Important News and Event Reviews - The import price of near - month soybeans showed a weakening trend. The near - month landed duty - paid price of US Gulf soybeans was 4,907.94 yuan/ton, that of Brazilian soybeans was 3,927.66 yuan/ton, and that of Argentine soybeans was 3,799.66 yuan/ton [9]. Associated Data Tracking - The basis of soybean No. 1 on the day was - 212 yuan/ton. The total open interest of soybean No. 1 options was 60,222 contracts, including 40,687 call option contracts and 19,535 put option contracts. The put - to - call ratio of open interest was 0.4801 [12]. Core View - The spot price of domestic soybeans is stable with a slight decline, the port inventory is increasing, and the import price of near - month soybeans is weakening. The soybean No. 1 futures market is showing a rebound and upward trend, and the market sentiment is relatively warm, continuing to be dominated by a volatile and strong trend [4][9][13]
国金期货黄金日报:美国关税谈判不确定性推高金价-20250724
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-07-24 11:30
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - No information provided 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Shanghai Gold Futures Contracts Information** - **沪金加权**: Latest price is 794.00 [6] - **沪金主连**: Latest price is 792.90, with a trading volume of 286,794, a rise of 7.10 (0.90% increase), an open interest of 222,386, and a daily increase in open interest of 5,664. The opening price is 788.50, the highest is 794.00, and the lowest is 787.60 [6] - **沪金2508**: Latest price is 790.30, with a trading volume of 24,723, a rise of 7.16 (0.91% increase), an open interest of 41,076, and a daily decrease in open interest of 1,896. The opening price is 786.50, the highest is 791.34, and the lowest is 785.08 [6] - **沪金2509**: Latest price is 791.66 [6] - **沪金2510 M**: Similar to 沪金主连, latest price is 792.90, with a trading volume of 286,794, a rise of 7.10 (0.90% increase), an open interest of 222,386, and a daily increase in open interest of 5,664. The opening price is 788.50, the highest is 794.00, and the lowest is 787.60 [6] - **沪金2512**: Latest price is 795.08, with a trading volume of 45,092, a rise of 7.42 (0.94% increase), an open interest of 111,896, and a daily increase in open interest of 6,926. The opening price is 790.62, the highest is 795.88, and the lowest is 789.42 [6] - **SA Ancos**: Value is 0 [6]
国金期货豆粕期货日报-20250724
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-07-24 11:29
Group 1: Market Overview and Price Review - The m2509 contract of soybean meal futures on July 23, 2025, fluctuated in the intraday range, starting at 3,080 yuan/ton, reaching a high of 3,121 yuan/ton, then dropping to 3,077 yuan/ton, and finally closing at 3,095 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton or 0.62%. The market saw a reduction in positions and volume, with net capital outflows and cooled sentiment. The daily K-line closed in the positive [2]. - Futures market data shows different contract performance in terms of opening, high, low, closing prices, trading volume, open interest, and trading value [5]. - On July 23, 2025, the spot price increases of soybean meal in some domestic regions widened. For example, the price in Zhangjiagang rose by 10 yuan/ton to 2,910 yuan/ton, and in Tianjin by 40 yuan/ton to 2,990 yuan/ton [6][7]. Group 2: Influencing Factors Analysis - Brazilian Anec reported that Brazil's soybean exports in July were 12.11 million tons (pre - estimated at 12.19 million tons), and its soybean meal exports were 2.4 million tons (pre - estimated at 2.25 million tons). The import cost of soybeans decreased, with US soybeans down 16 yuan/ton, Brazilian soybeans down 13 yuan/ton, and Argentine soybeans down 1 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [7][8]. - The base - difference data and registered warehouse receipt data are presented, with the total number of soybean meal warehouse receipts increasing by 170 to 41,446 [8][10]. Group 3: Conclusion and Outlook - The price of the m2509 contract for soybean meal futures continued to rise, but failed to hold above the key integer level at the close. It may show a moderately strong and volatile pattern in the short term. Attention should be paid to the impact of US soybean - growing area weather on the soybean meal market, and the ample domestic spot supply may put downward pressure on prices [12].
天然橡胶和号胶期货:胶胶短期内或保持偏强震荡
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-07-24 10:48
Group 1: Report Overview - Research variety: Natural rubber [1] - Report period: Weekly [1] - Date of composition: July 19, 2025 [1] - Researcher: He Ning, Qualification No.: F0238922; Investment consulting certificate No.: Z0001219 [1] Group 2: Investment Rating - The natural rubber market is expected to remain strongly volatile in the short term [3] Group 3: Core View - In the short - term, natural rubber may maintain a strongly volatile trend, affected by factors such as macro - sentiment, rainfall in production areas, and inventory changes [3][11] Group 4: Summary by Sections Spot Analysis - Heavy rainfall in Hainan, China has hindered rubber tapping work, and the daily rubber collection volume on the whole island is lower than the same period last year [9] Market Situation - Recently, the macro - sentiment is positive. Rainfall interference in upstream production areas has increased, resulting in reduced output. Demand is weak, and inventory has started to decline slightly [11]
国金期货不锈钢期货日报-20250724
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-07-24 08:56
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The stainless steel market has shown a stable and upward trend recently due to the "anti-involution" policy expectations and the gradual improvement of the macro - environment. In the short term, the market should focus on the dynamic balance between policy implementation effects and fundamental changes [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Overview and Market Review - **Overall Market Performance on the Day**: Taking the 2509 stainless steel main contract as an example, on July 21, 2025, it opened at 12,740 points, reached a high of 12,960 points, a low of 12,735 points, and closed at 12,905 points, up 180 points or 1.41% from the previous day's closing price. The trading volume was 255,000 lots, an increase of 92,928 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 123,000 lots, an increase of 14,992 lots. The registered warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 103,599 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The basis was 595 yuan/ton, with a basis rate of 4.41%. In the spot market, the prices of 304 stainless steel cold - rolled coil plate varied in different regions [2] - **Futures Market Data**: The closing prices of ss2508, ss2509, and ss2510 contracts were 12,915, 12,905, and 12,765 respectively, with increases of 1.37%, 1.41%, and 1.37%. Their trading volumes were 35,758 lots, 255,000 lots, and 54,367 lots, and the open interests were 26,706 lots, 123,000 lots, and 40,241 lots respectively. The daily position changes were - 5,195 lots, + 14,992 lots, and + 1,268 lots [5] 3.2 Analysis of Influencing Factors - **Macro - level**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's plan to stabilize the growth of ten industries including non - ferrous metals is about to be implemented, and the China Iron and Steel Association requires strict control of increments and smooth exits in the steel industry. These policies have boosted the prices of stainless steel and nickel, and the nickel - iron price has stopped falling [6] - **Supply and Demand**: Upstream has reported production cut plans, but the nickel - iron spot market is still cold, and steel mills have weak willingness to replenish stocks. Social inventories have increased to 114.78 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.69%, and the supply pressure has been relieved. The stainless steel market has shown a general upward trend, with the prices of 304 series products increasing by 50 - 200 yuan [6] 3.3 Conclusion and Outlook - The stainless steel market is expected to maintain a stable and upward trend in the short term, and attention should be paid to the dynamic balance between policy implementation and fundamental changes [8]
国金期货烧碱日报-20250723
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-07-23 06:16
Report Summary 1) Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View - This week, caustic soda futures prices fluctuated and consolidated, while spot prices rose slightly in some areas. The supply shortage situation has been alleviated to some extent due to the resumption of production of previously overhauled plants. There is no significant boost from the demand side, and the off - season of non - aluminum demand continues. Traders and downstream users are resistant to high - priced caustic soda. It is expected that caustic soda prices may fluctuate weakly next week. Attention should be paid to the changes in the liquid chlorine subsidy price in North China and the operating rate of chlor - alkali enterprises in the future [10]. 3) Summary by Directory a) Futures Market - This week, the caustic soda futures price reached a high and then declined, with narrow fluctuations during the week. The closing price of the main contract was 2469 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.08% from last week. The trading volume and open interest both decreased. The trading volume was [X] million lots, a decrease of [X] million lots from last week, and the open interest was [X] million lots, a decrease of [X] lots from last week [2][4][8]. b) Spot Market Analysis - **Supply**: As of July 17, 2025, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 82.6%, a week - on - week increase of 2.2%. The capacity utilization rates in North China, East China, Northeast China, and South China increased to varying degrees, while that in Central China decreased due to the low price of liquid chlorine [4]. - **Inventory**: As of July 17, 2025, the inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda in enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 38.39 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.56% [4]. - **Non - aluminum Demand**: Some viscose staple fiber plants in Shandong restarted this week, increasing the capacity utilization rate. The comprehensive operating rate in the printing and dyeing industry in Jiangsu and Zhejiang remained unchanged [6]. c) Futures - Spot Combination Analysis - **Spot Market**: This week, the spot price of liquid caustic soda strengthened slightly in some areas, with price increases in North China and East China, and remained stable in other markets [8]. - **Futures Market**: This week, the caustic soda futures price reached a high and then declined, with narrow fluctuations during the week, and both trading volume and open interest decreased [8]. d) Associated Product Analysis - **Upstream Raw Materials**: The price of raw salt and electricity remained stable, and the production cost remained basically unchanged [8]. - **Downstream Products**: The recent start - up of alumina has increased, mainly to replenish previous long - term contracts. The overall spot market is tight, and some enterprises and traders are reluctant to sell at low prices. There is no significant change in non - aluminum downstream demand. The subsidy for the by - product liquid chlorine decreased this week, and the overall chlor - alkali profit increased [8].