Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The external environment is favorable for Treasury bond futures, but considering the relatively low current Treasury bond yields, the stable recovery of the Chinese economy, and the possibility of repeated tariff adjustments, it is recommended to remain cautious [7][8]. - Despite the impact of tariffs on the domestic economic recovery rhythm and the increase in global recession risks, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and it is considered to go long on stock index futures [10]. - Due to the complex global trade and financial environment, the increasing risk of global economic recession under tariff disturbances, and the possible passive easing of monetary policies of various countries, the long - term bullish trend of precious metals will continue, and it is recommended to go long on gold futures on dips [13]. - For steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coils, considering the industrial supply - demand situation, valuation, and technical aspects, investors can focus on shorting opportunities on rebounds and pay attention to position management [15]. - For iron ore, considering the improvement of the supply - demand pattern, valuation, and technical aspects, investors can focus on buying opportunities at low levels and pay attention to position management [17][18]. - For coking coal and coke, considering the industrial supply - demand situation and technical aspects, investors can focus on shorting opportunities on rebounds and pay attention to position management [20]. - For ferroalloys, considering the supply - demand situation, inventory, and cost, for manganese silicon, attention can be paid to the opportunities of out - of - the - money call options at low levels; for silicon iron, short - sellers can consider exiting at the bottom range, and attention can also be paid to the opportunities of out - of - the - money call options at low levels [23]. - For crude oil, considering the OPEC+ production increase and the positive impact of Sino - US talks, it is considered to take a long - biased operation on the main crude oil contract [25][26]. - For fuel oil, considering the possible relaxation of US sanctions on Russia and the signing of tariff friction agreements, it is considered to take a long - biased operation on the main fuel oil contract [27][28]. - Synthetic rubber and natural rubber are expected to be in a weak and volatile state; PVC is expected to be in a bottom - oscillating state; urea requires attention to export changes; PX is expected to oscillate and adjust following the cost side; PTA is expected to have a small price repair space; ethylene glycol is expected to have a small upward price space; short - fiber and bottle - chip are expected to oscillate and adjust following the cost side; soda ash may have short - term disk adjustments; glass has no obvious driving force in the short term; caustic soda may have certain driving forces due to device maintenance; pulp is in a weak pattern; lithium carbonate is expected to be weak; copper is expected to be strong; tin is expected to be under pressure and oscillate bearishly; nickel is recommended to be observed cautiously; industrial silicon and polysilicon are expected to be bearish; soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed meal, and rapeseed oil have different investment opportunities; cotton is recommended to be observed; sugar is expected to oscillate within a range; apples are recommended to focus on buying opportunities after corrections; pigs are expected to be weak first and then stable and strong; eggs are recommended to gradually take profit on reverse spreads; corn and starch are recommended to be observed temporarily; logs have no obvious driving force [29][30][32][36][38][40][42][43][44][45][47][49][52][54][56][58][60][61][63][65][68][69][73][76][78][81][83][86] Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Treasury Bonds - On the previous trading day, most Treasury bond futures closed down. The central bank conducted 77 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on May 9, with a net investment of 77 billion yuan on the same day [5]. - The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy. China's April export growth slowed down, and the trade surplus decreased. The Sino - US economic and trade talks reached important consensus [6]. - It is expected that the fluctuation range will increase, and caution should be maintained [9]. Stock Index Futures - On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed trends. China's April CPI and core CPI showed certain changes, and PPI continued to decline [10]. - Although the domestic economy is stable, tariffs disrupt the economic recovery rhythm. However, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and it is considered to go long on stock index futures [10][11]. Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, the gold main contract closed down, and the silver main contract closed up. Due to the complex global situation, the long - term bullish trend of precious metals will continue, and it is recommended to go long on gold futures on dips [12][13][14]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fell significantly. The real - estate industry's downward trend suppresses rebar prices, but short - term peak - season demand may provide support. It is recommended to focus on shorting opportunities on rebounds [15][16]. Iron Ore - On the previous trading day, iron ore futures fell slightly. The improvement of the supply - demand pattern supports the price. It is recommended to focus on buying opportunities at low levels [17][18][19]. Coking Coal and Coke - On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures fell sharply. The supply of coking coal is loose, and the price of coke is under pressure. It is recommended to focus on shorting opportunities on rebounds [20][21]. Ferroalloys - On the previous trading day, the manganese silicon main contract rose, and the silicon iron main contract rose. The demand for ferroalloys is weak, and the supply is still high. Different investment opportunities are recommended for manganese silicon and silicon iron [22][23]. Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, INE crude oil oscillated upward. OPEC+ will increase production from May to June, and the Sino - US talks are positive for crude oil. It is considered to take a long - biased operation [24][25][26]. Fuel Oil - On the previous trading day, fuel oil followed crude oil and oscillated upward. The possible relaxation of US sanctions on Russia is negative for high - sulfur fuel oil, while the signing of tariff agreements is positive for fuel oil. It is considered to take a long - biased operation [27][28]. Synthetic Rubber - On the previous trading day, the synthetic rubber main contract rose. The supply pressure continues, the demand improvement is limited, and it is expected to oscillate weakly [29][30]. Natural Rubber - On the previous trading day, the natural rubber main contract fell, and the 20 - rubber main contract rose. The global supply is expected to increase, and the demand is affected by tariffs. It is expected to oscillate weakly [30][31]. PVC - On the previous trading day, the PVC main contract fell. The supply pressure eases marginally, the demand recovers weakly, and it is expected to oscillate at the bottom [32][35]. Urea - On the previous trading day, the urea main contract rose. The demand increase may not offset the supply elasticity. Attention should be paid to export changes [36][37]. PX - On the previous trading day, the PX2509 main contract rose. The short - term crude oil price is under pressure, and PX is expected to oscillate and adjust following the cost side [38][39]. PTA - On the previous trading day, the PTA2509 main contract rose. The short - term supply - demand structure of PTA improves, and the cost is expected to turn better. It is expected to have a small price repair space [40]. Ethylene Glycol - On the previous trading day, the ethylene glycol main contract rose. The short - term supply increase of ethylene glycol is not obvious, and the inventory may decline slightly. It is expected to have a small upward price space [41][42]. Short - Fiber - On the previous trading day, the short - fiber 2506 main contract rose. The downstream terminal demand warms up slightly, and it is expected to oscillate and adjust following the cost side [43]. Bottle - Chip - On the previous trading day, the bottle - chip 2506 main contract rose. The raw material price oscillates and adjusts, and the bottle - chip is expected to oscillate following the cost side [44]. Soda Ash - On the previous trading day, the soda ash 2509 main contract fell. The supply is still high, and the raw material price is falling. There may be short - term disk adjustments [45][46]. Glass - On the previous trading day, the glass 2509 main contract fell. There is no obvious driving force in the actual supply - demand fundamentals, and the market sentiment may be repaired in the short term [47][48]. Caustic Soda - On the previous trading day, the caustic soda 2509 main contract fell. The demand for caustic soda is limited, and some devices will enter the maintenance period in May, which may have certain driving forces [49][50]. Pulp - On the previous trading day, the pulp 2507 main contract rose. The supply is high, the downstream consumption is weak, and the market is in a weak pattern [51][52][53]. Lithium Carbonate - On the previous trading day, the lithium carbonate main contract fell. The supply - demand surplus situation has not changed significantly, and it is expected to be weak [54][55]. Copper - On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper oscillated slightly. The Sino - US talks achieved important results, and copper is expected to be strong. It is considered to take a long - biased operation on the Shanghai copper main contract [56][57]. Tin - On the previous trading day, Shanghai tin rose. The supply is expected to be loose, and the price is expected to be under pressure and oscillate bearishly [58][59]. Nickel - On the previous trading day, Shanghai nickel rose. The supply is tightened at the mine end, but the demand may weaken in the off - season. It is recommended to observe cautiously [60]. Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon - On the previous trading day, the industrial silicon main contract fell, and the polysilicon main contract rose. The demand in the industrial chain is weak, and the price of polysilicon is expected to continue to decline. It is considered bearish [61][62]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - On the previous trading day, the soybean meal main contract fell, and the soybean oil main contract rose. The supply of soybeans is expected to be loose, and different investment opportunities are recommended for soybean oil and soybean meal [63][64]. Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil prices are under pressure due to expected production and inventory increases. It is recommended to focus on the opportunity to widen the soybean - palm oil spread [65][66][67]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed prices rose. In China, the situation of rapeseed, rapeseed meal, and rapeseed oil inventory is different. It is recommended to focus on buying opportunities for rapeseed meal after corrections [68]. Cotton - Domestic and foreign cotton prices oscillated. The market is waiting for the USDA report and Sino - US negotiation news. The demand in the industrial chain is weak, and it is recommended to observe [69][70][71]. Sugar - Domestic sugar prices oscillated at a low level, and foreign raw sugar prices rose. The international sugar market is mixed, and the domestic sugar is expected to oscillate within a range [73][74][75]. Apples - Domestic apple futures oscillated weakly. The production is expected to decrease this year, and the inventory is low. It is recommended to focus on buying opportunities after corrections [76][77]. Pigs - The national average pig price was stable. The supply may increase in the short term, and the price is expected to be weak first and then stable and strong. It is recommended to observe temporarily [78][79][80]. Eggs - The average egg price was stable. The supply is expected to increase in May, and it is recommended to gradually take profit on reverse spreads [81][82]. Corn and Starch - On the previous trading day, the corn main contract rose, and the corn starch main contract was flat. The domestic corn supply surplus eases slightly, and the short - term supply pressure still exists. It is recommended to observe temporarily [83][84][85]. Logs - On the previous trading day, the log 2507 main contract rose slightly. The import volume decreased, and the market has no obvious driving force [86][87][88]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The external environment is favorable for Treasury bond futures, but considering the relatively low Treasury bond yields and the possibility of tariff adjustments, it is recommended to remain cautious [6]. - Despite concerns about corporate profit growth and global recession risks, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [9]. - The long - term bullish trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and it is recommended to go long on gold futures on dips [12]. - For various commodities, different investment strategies are proposed based on their respective fundamentals, including going long, shorting, or remaining on the sidelines [14][17][19]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Treasury Bonds - On the previous trading day, Treasury bond futures closed up across the board. The central bank conducted 158.6 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net investment of 158.6 billion yuan. It is expected that the volatility will increase, and caution is advised [5][7]. Stock Index - On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The new energy vehicle market in April had certain growth. Although there are concerns about the economy due to tariffs, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [8][10]. Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, gold and silver futures declined. The EU plans to take counter - measures against US tariffs. The long - term bullish trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and it is recommended to go long on gold futures on dips [11][13]. Steel Products (including Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Coking Coal, Coke, and Ferroalloys) - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: On the previous trading day, prices fell. The real estate downturn suppresses rebar prices, but the peak demand season may provide short - term support. The valuation is low, and investors can look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds [14]. - **Iron Ore**: On the previous trading day, prices corrected. The increase in demand and the decrease in supply and inventory support the price. The valuation is relatively high, and investors can look for buying opportunities at low levels [16][17]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: On the previous trading day, prices dropped significantly. Coking coal supply is loose, and the possibility of further price increases for coke is low. Investors can look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds [19]. - **Ferroalloys**: On the previous trading day, manganese silicon and silicon iron prices rose. The supply is still high, and the demand is weak. Investors can consider options opportunities for manganese silicon and silicon iron [21][22]. Energy (including Crude Oil, Fuel Oil) - **Crude Oil**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil trended lower. OPEC+ plans to increase production in May - June, but tariff agreements may be beneficial. It is advisable to consider going long on the main crude oil contract [23][25]. - **Fuel Oil**: On the previous trading day, fuel oil trended up. The relaxation of US sanctions on Russia may be negative, while tariff negotiations and inventory reduction may be positive. It is advisable to consider going long on the main fuel oil contract [26][27]. Rubber (including Synthetic Rubber, Natural Rubber) - **Synthetic Rubber**: On the previous trading day, prices rose slightly. Supply pressure persists, and demand improvement is limited. It is expected to fluctuate weakly [28][30]. - **Natural Rubber**: On the previous trading day, prices fell. Global supply is expected to increase, and demand improvement is uncertain. It is expected to fluctuate weakly [31][32]. Chemical Products (including PVC, Urea, PX, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short - Fiber, Bottle - Chip, Soda Ash, Glass, Caustic Soda, Pulp) - **PVC**: On the previous trading day, prices fell. Supply pressure eases marginally, and demand recovers weakly. It is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [33][35]. - **Urea**: On the previous trading day, prices fell slightly. Demand growth may not offset supply elasticity. Attention should be paid to export policy changes [36][37]. - **PX**: On the previous trading day, prices rose. PX device maintenance affects supply, and crude oil price trends are important. It is advisable to operate in the low - value range [38][39]. - **PTA**: On the previous trading day, prices rose. Supply and demand improve, and cost expectations are positive. It is advisable to operate in the low - value range [40]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: On the previous trading day, prices rose. Supply growth is not obvious, and inventory may decline slightly. It is advisable to participate cautiously at low levels [41][42]. - **Short - Fiber**: On the previous trading day, prices rose. Demand improves slightly, and it is expected to fluctuate with the cost [43]. - **Bottle - Chip**: On the previous trading day, prices rose. Cost support strengthens, and it is expected to fluctuate with the cost [44]. - **Soda Ash**: On the previous trading day, prices fell. Supply remains high, and device maintenance may cause short - term adjustments [45]. - **Glass**: On the previous trading day, prices fell. There is no obvious driving force in supply and demand, and market sentiment may be repaired [46][47]. - **Caustic Soda**: On the previous trading day, prices fell. Demand is limited, and device maintenance may have an impact [49][50]. - **Pulp**: On the previous trading day, prices rose. Supply increases, and market sentiment is weak [52][53]. Non - Ferrous Metals (including Lithium Carbonate, Copper, Tin, Nickel, Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon) - **Lithium Carbonate**: On the previous trading day, prices fell. Supply is high, demand is weak, and it is expected to trend weakly [54][55]. - **Copper**: On the previous trading day, prices fluctuated. The Fed's stance affects the dollar, and copper prices are expected to fluctuate in a range. It is advisable to remain on the sidelines [56][57]. - **Tin**: On the previous trading day, prices rose. Mine supply may increase, and demand is affected by trade events. It is expected to fluctuate bearishly [58][59]. - **Nickel**: On the previous trading day, prices rose. Cost support exists, but demand may weaken. It is advisable to remain on the sidelines [60]. - **Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon**: On the previous trading day, prices continued to decline. Demand is weak, supply reduction is limited, and prices are expected to continue to be under pressure [61][62]. Agricultural Products (including Soybean Oil, Soybean Meal, Palm Oil, Rapeseed Meal, Rapeseed Oil, Cotton, Sugar, Apple, Live Pigs, Eggs, Corn, Logs) - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: On the previous trading day, soybean meal rose slightly, and soybean oil fell slightly. Supply is expected to be loose, and it is advisable to remain on the sidelines for soybean meal and consider call options for soybean oil [63][64]. - **Palm Oil**: On the previous trading day, prices rose. Inventory may increase, and it is advisable to consider expanding the spread between soybean oil and palm oil [65][67]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: Canadian rapeseed inventory decreased, and China's import situation changed. It is advisable to consider buying rapeseed meal on dips [68][70]. - **Cotton**: On the previous trading day, domestic cotton fluctuated. Tariff policies and weather are important factors. It is advisable to remain on the sidelines [71][73]. - **Sugar**: On the previous trading day, domestic sugar fell slightly. Brazilian production is increasing, and Indian production is lower than expected. It is expected to fluctuate in a range [75][78]. - **Apple**: On the previous trading day, prices fell significantly. Cold - storage inventory is low, and future production is uncertain. It is advisable to remain on the sidelines [80][81]. - **Live Pigs**: On the previous trading day, prices were stable with a slight increase. Supply may increase, and demand may change seasonally. It is advisable to remain on the sidelines [82][83]. - **Eggs**: On the previous trading day, prices fell. Supply is expected to increase, and it is advisable to gradually take profits on reverse spreads [84][86]. - **Corn**: On the previous trading day, prices fell. Supply pressure exists in the short term, and consumption is recovering. It is advisable to remain on the sidelines [87][89]. - **Logs**: On the previous trading day, prices fell. Supply is entering the off - season, and demand improvement is limited. The market is weak [90][92].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The external environment is favorable for Treasury bond futures, but considering the relatively low current Treasury bond yields, the impact of tariffs, and the potential for repeated tariff adjustments, it is recommended to maintain a certain degree of caution [7][8]. - Despite concerns about the impact of tariffs on the domestic economic recovery rhythm and corporate profit growth, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and it is considered to go long on stock index futures [10][11]. - The long - term bullish trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and it is recommended to go long on gold futures on dips [14]. - For various commodities, different investment strategies are proposed based on their respective supply - demand, valuation, and technical aspects, such as going long or short on certain contracts, or taking a wait - and - see approach [16][19][21]. 3. Summary by Directory Treasury Bonds - The previous trading day saw a full - line decline in Treasury bond futures, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts down 0.62%, 0.19%, 0.08%, and 0.01% respectively. The central bank carried out 195.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on May 7, with an operating rate of 1.50%, and there was a net withdrawal of 335.3 billion yuan on that day. The central bank adjusted the 7 - day reverse repurchase operating rate to 1.40% from May 8, cut the deposit reserve ratio by 0.5 percentage points from May 15, and cut the personal housing provident fund loan interest rate by 0.25 percentage points from May 8 [7]. - The Fed's stance and tariff issues have an impact on the market. It is expected that the volatility will increase, and caution should be maintained [8][9]. Stock Index - The previous trading day saw mixed performance in stock index futures. Financial regulators proposed measures to support the capital market, including expanding the pilot scope of long - term investment of insurance funds, adjusting solvency regulatory rules, and promoting a long - cycle assessment mechanism. The China Securities Regulatory Commission also took measures to stabilize the market [10]. - Although tariffs disrupt the domestic economic recovery rhythm, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and it is considered to go long on stock index futures [11][12]. Precious Metals - The previous trading day saw a 0.79% increase in the gold main contract and a 0.21% increase in the silver main contract. China has increased its gold reserves for six consecutive months. The complex global trade and financial environment, potential monetary policy easing, and other factors are expected to drive up the price of gold. It is recommended to go long on gold futures on dips [13][14]. Threaded Steel and Hot - Rolled Coils - The previous trading day saw weak oscillations in threaded steel and hot - rolled coil futures. The real - estate industry's downward trend suppresses the price of threaded steel, but the peak - season demand may provide short - term support. The valuation of steel prices is low, and the downward space may be limited. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds [16]. Iron Ore - The previous trading day saw oscillations in iron ore futures. The increase in iron ore demand and the decrease in imports and port inventory support the price. The valuation of iron ore is relatively high in the black - series varieties. It is recommended to pay attention to buying opportunities at low levels [18][19]. Coking Coal and Coke - The previous trading day saw a slight decline in coking coal and coke futures. The supply of coking coal is loose, and the trading atmosphere has weakened. The demand for coke has improved, but the possibility of further price increases is low. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds [21]. Ferroalloys - The previous trading day saw a 0.39% decline in the manganese - silicon main contract and a 0.04% increase in the silicon - iron main contract. The supply of ferroalloys is still high, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to pay attention to call - option opportunities for manganese - silicon and consider short - position exit opportunities for silicon - iron [23][24]. Crude Oil - The previous trading day saw a sharp increase in INE crude oil. News such as Kazakhstan's commitment to the OPEC+ agreement, the progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement, and the upcoming China - US talks are favorable for crude oil. It is recommended to take a long - position operation on the main crude - oil contract [25][26]. Fuel Oil - The previous trading day saw a sharp increase in fuel oil following crude oil. The demand for high - sulfur fuel oil in Asia is showing signs of strengthening. The relaxation of US sanctions on Russia may be negative for high - sulfur fuel oil, while the expected signing of a tariff agreement and the decrease in Singapore's inventory are positive. It is recommended to take a long - position operation on the main fuel - oil contract [28]. Synthetic Rubber - The previous trading day saw a 1.34% increase in the synthetic - rubber main contract. The supply pressure continues, the demand improvement is limited, and the cost rebounds. It is expected to oscillate weakly [30][31]. Natural Rubber - The previous trading day saw the natural - rubber main contract close flat and the 20 - rubber main contract rise 0.28%. The global supply is expected to increase, and the demand may improve due to tariff changes. It is expected to oscillate weakly [33]. PVC - The previous trading day saw a 0.27% decline in the PVC main contract. The supply pressure eases marginally, and the demand recovers weakly. It is expected to oscillate at the bottom [35]. Urea - The previous trading day saw a 0.96% increase in the urea main contract. The approaching summer corn - fertilizer preparation period may not offset the supply elasticity. The potential Indian tender and domestic export - policy adjustment may affect the price. It is recommended to pay attention to export changes [38]. p - Xylene (PX) - The previous trading day saw a 2.81% increase in the PX2509 main contract. PX devices are under centralized maintenance, and the cost support is enhanced. It is expected to oscillate and adjust following the cost, and it is recommended to operate in the low - price range [40][41]. PTA - The previous trading day saw a 2.48% increase in the PTA2509 main contract. The planned maintenance of PTA devices increases, and the cost is expected to improve. It is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to operate in the low - price range [42]. Ethylene Glycol - The previous trading day saw a 1.55% increase in the ethylene - glycol main contract. The restart of coal - based ethylene - glycol devices is less than expected, and the inventory may decline slightly. It is recommended to participate cautiously at low levels [43][44]. Short - Fiber - The previous trading day saw a 1.67% increase in the short - fiber 2506 main contract. The downstream demand is weak, and the cost is the main factor affecting the price. It is recommended to participate cautiously [45]. Bottle Chips - The previous trading day saw a 1.69% increase in the bottle - chip 2506 main contract. The cost support is enhanced, and the supply and demand lack a driving force. It is expected to oscillate following the cost [46][47]. Soda Ash - The previous trading day saw a 0.90% decline in the 2509 main contract. In May, the number of maintenance devices increases, but the overall supply remains high. The export advantage is gradually established. It is recommended that short - position holders at low levels adjust their positions [49]. Glass - The previous trading day saw a 0.09% increase in the 2509 main contract. The production line is at a low level, and the actual supply - demand has no obvious driving force. The tariff adjustment and relevant financial policies may affect the market sentiment [50][51]. Caustic Soda - The previous trading day saw a 0.76% increase in the 2509 main contract. Some devices will enter the maintenance period in May. The demand from alumina and non - aluminum downstream is limited. It is necessary to pay attention to the device operation and liquid - chlorine price [52][53]. Pulp - The previous trading day saw a 1.26% increase in the 2507 main contract. The inventory continues to accumulate, the supply increases, and the market is in a weak pattern. The trading sentiment is poor [54][55]. Lithium Carbonate - The previous trading day saw a 1.99% decline in the lithium - carbonate main contract. The supply is high, the demand is weak, and the inventory increases. It is expected to run weakly [57]. Copper - The previous trading day saw Shanghai copper rise first and then fall. Although the ICSG expects a surplus in refined - copper supply, the Sino - US talks may boost demand. It is recommended to take a long - position operation on the Shanghai copper main contract [58][59]. Tin - The previous trading day saw a 0.94% decline in Shanghai tin. The resumption of production in major mines eases the shortage pattern, and the impact of Sino - US trade on the downstream electronic - consumption market remains. It is expected to oscillate bearishly [61]. Nickel - The previous trading day saw a 0.35% decline in Shanghai nickel. The cost support is strong, but the demand may weaken in the off - season. The overall supply - demand is in a surplus pattern. It is recommended to wait and see cautiously [62][63]. Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon - The previous trading day saw industrial silicon and polysilicon continue to decline. The demand in the industrial chain is weak, the supply decline is limited, and the price is expected to continue to be under pressure. It is recommended to pay attention to the start - up changes in the southwest region during the wet season and maintain a bearish view [64]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - The previous trading day saw a 0.03% decline in the soybean - meal main contract and a 0.44% increase in the soybean - oil main contract. The supply of soybeans is expected to be loose, the upward pressure on soybean meal is high, and it is recommended to wait and see. The cost support for soybean oil at the bottom is enhanced, and it is recommended to pay attention to call - option opportunities [65][66]. Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil has been falling for seven consecutive days. The inventory may increase, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity to expand the spread between soybean oil and palm oil [67][69]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed prices are fluctuating. The production of Canadian rapeseed is expected to increase. China has imposed tariffs on Canadian rapeseed products. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity to go long on rapeseed meal after a pullback [70]. Cotton - The previous trading day saw a slight increase in domestic Zhengzhou cotton. The planting progress in the US and China is known, and the demand is affected by tariffs. The downstream demand is weak, and it is recommended to wait and see [71][73]. Sugar - The previous trading day saw domestic Zhengzhou sugar oscillate weakly. Brazil is entering the production - acceleration period, and the sugar production in India is lower than expected. The domestic inventory is neutral, and it is recommended to wait and see [75][78]. Apples - The previous trading day saw a slight decline in domestic apple futures. The cold - storage inventory is low, and the sales are good. The new - year production is expected to increase. It is recommended to wait and see [80]. Live Pigs - The previous trading day saw the national average price of live pigs remain flat. The supply may increase after the holiday, and the consumption is in a short - term off - season. It is expected that the pig price will first weaken and then strengthen. It is recommended to wait and see [82][84]. Eggs - The previous trading day saw a decline in the average price of eggs in the main production and sales areas. The egg - laying hen inventory is increasing, and the supply is expected to increase in May. It is recommended to gradually take profit on the reverse spread [85][86]. Corn and Starch - The previous trading day saw a 0.25% increase in the corn main contract and a 0.26% increase in the corn - starch main contract. The supply of corn is expected to be in a slight surplus, and the demand is slowly recovering. The production and demand of corn starch are weak. It is recommended to wait and see [87][90]. Logs - The previous trading day saw a 0.44% increase in the 2507 main contract. The supply is affected by holidays and weather, and it is entering the off - season. The inventory is relatively neutral, and the demand improvement is limited. The market is in a weak state [91][93].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The external environment is favorable for Treasury bond futures, but considering the current relatively low Treasury bond yields, China's economic recovery trend, and the possibility of tariff adjustments, it is recommended to remain cautious [6]. - Despite the impact of tariffs on the domestic economic recovery rhythm and the increase in global recession risks, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [9]. - The long - term bullish trend of precious metals continues, and it is recommended to go long on gold futures on dips [12]. - For steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coils, investors can focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds, and for iron ore, they can focus on buying opportunities at low levels [14][17]. - For coking coal and coke, investors can focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds [19]. - For ferroalloys, consider opportunities in out - of - the - money call options for manganese silicon and short - covering opportunities for ferrosilicon [22]. - Consider going long on the main contracts of crude oil and fuel oil [25][27]. - Synthetic rubber and natural rubber are expected to be in a weak and volatile state, PVC is expected to be in a bottom - oscillating state, and urea requires attention to export changes [28][29][34]. - For PX, PTA, and other chemical products, consider range - bound operations [38][39]. - For ethylene glycol, short - term bottom - oscillating is expected, and cautious participation is recommended [41]. - For short - fiber and bottle - chip, they are expected to follow the cost side and oscillate, and cautious participation is recommended [42][43]. - For soda ash, short - term disk adjustments may occur, and short - sellers at low levels should adjust their positions [46]. - For glass, the post - holiday market sentiment is expected to be weak [47]. - For caustic soda, pay attention to enterprise inventory and delivery volume data changes [48]. - For pulp, the market is in a weak pattern [51]. - Lithium carbonate is expected to be in a weak operation [52]. - Consider going long on the main contract of Shanghai copper, and have a bearish and oscillating view on tin [56][57]. - Nickel is expected to remain in a supply - surplus pattern, and industrial silicon and polysilicon are expected to continue to decline in price [58][59]. - For soybean oil and soybean meal, adopt a wait - and - see attitude for soybean meal and consider out - of - the - money call options for soybean oil at the bottom [61]. - Consider the opportunity to widen the soybean oil - palm oil spread, and consider buying opportunities for rapeseed meal after a pullback [63][65]. - For cotton, sugar, apples, and other agricultural products, a wait - and - see attitude is recommended [67][71][74]. - For live pigs, consider waiting and seeing, and for eggs, consider reverse - spread opportunities [77][79]. - For corn and corn starch, a wait - and - see attitude is recommended [81]. - For logs, the market is in a weak state with no obvious driving force [84]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Treasury Bonds - On the previous trading day, most Treasury bond futures closed down. The central bank conducted 405 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations on May 6, with a net withdrawal of 682 billion yuan. The Caixin China Services PMI in April was 50.7, and the comprehensive PMI output index declined, indicating a slowdown in the expansion of domestic enterprise production and operation activities [5]. - The external environment is favorable for Treasury bond futures, but considering various factors, it is recommended to remain cautious, and the volatility is expected to increase [6][7]. Stock Index Futures - On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The market is worried about the decline in corporate profit growth due to tariffs, but domestic asset valuations are low, and policies have hedging space. The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [8][9][10]. Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, gold and silver futures rose. The complex global trade and financial environment, the increase in the risk of global recession due to tariffs, and the possible passive easing of monetary policies are expected to drive up the price of gold. It is recommended to go long on gold futures on dips [11][12][13]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures showed weak oscillations. The downward trend of the real estate industry suppresses the price of rebar, but the peak - season demand may provide short - term support. The valuation of steel prices is low, and investors can focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds [14]. Iron Ore - On the previous trading day, iron ore futures oscillated. The increase in iron ore demand and the decrease in supply and inventory support the price. The valuation of iron ore is relatively high, and investors can focus on buying opportunities at low levels [16][17]. Coking Coal and Coke - On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures fell sharply. The supply of coking coal is loose, and the trading atmosphere has weakened. The shipment of coke has improved, but the possibility of further price increases is low. The futures may continue to decline, and investors can focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds [19]. Ferroalloys - On the previous trading day, manganese silicon and ferrosilicon futures fell. The supply of ferroalloys is still high, and the demand is weak. The supply of manganese ore may be disturbed. Consider opportunities in out - of - the - money call options for manganese silicon and short - covering opportunities for ferrosilicon [21][22]. Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, INE crude oil fell sharply due to OPEC's plan to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in June. The increase in production may lead to price fluctuations, but factors such as Sino - US talks are favorable for crude oil. Consider going long on the main contract [23][24][25]. Fuel Oil - On the previous trading day, fuel oil followed crude oil and fell sharply. The reduction in Singapore's inventory may support the price, and the relaxation of US sanctions on Russia may be negative for high - sulfur fuel oil. Consider going long on the main contract [26][27]. Synthetic Rubber - On the previous trading day, synthetic rubber rose. The supply pressure continues, the demand improvement is limited, and the cost side rebounds. It is expected to oscillate weakly [28][29]. Natural Rubber - On the previous trading day, natural rubber futures rose. The global supply is expected to increase, and the demand is affected by tariffs. It is expected to oscillate weakly [29][30]. PVC - On the previous trading day, PVC futures fell. The supply pressure eases marginally, the demand recovers weakly, and the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [31][34]. Urea - On the previous trading day, urea futures rose. The approach of the summer corn fertilizer preparation period and potential Indian tenders may affect the price. Pay attention to export policy changes [35][36]. PX - On the previous trading day, PX futures fell. PX devices are under centralized maintenance, and the downstream demand has improved. It is expected to follow the cost side and oscillate, and range - bound operations are recommended [37][38]. PTA - On the previous trading day, PTA futures fell. The supply is affected by device maintenance, the demand is affected by tariffs, and the cost side is under pressure. It is expected to oscillate, and range - bound operations are recommended [39]. Ethylene Glycol - On the previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures fell. The supply is expected to increase, the inventory is high, and the demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate at the bottom, and cautious participation is recommended [40][41]. Short - Fiber - On the previous trading day, short - fiber futures fell. The supply is at a relatively high level, the demand is weak, and it is expected to follow the cost side and oscillate. Cautious participation is recommended [42]. Bottle - Chip - On the previous trading day, bottle - chip futures fell. The cost support is insufficient, the supply is increasing, and the demand is gradually recovering. It is expected to follow the cost side and oscillate [43]. Soda Ash - On the previous trading day, soda ash futures fell. In May, device maintenance will be concentrated, which may lead to short - term disk adjustments. The supply is high, and the inventory is stable [44][46]. Glass - On the previous trading day, glass futures fell. The production line is at a low level, the demand is weak, and the post - holiday market sentiment is expected to be weak [47]. Caustic Soda - On the previous trading day, caustic soda futures rose. Some devices will enter the maintenance period in May, and the demand is limited. Pay attention to enterprise inventory and delivery volume data changes [48][49]. Pulp - On the previous trading day, pulp futures fell. The inventory is accumulating, the supply is increasing, and the market is in a weak pattern [50][51]. Lithium Carbonate - On the previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures fell. The supply is high, the demand is weak, and it is expected to be in a weak operation [52]. Copper - On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper oscillated upward. Although the ICSG expects a supply surplus of refined copper, Sino - US talks may boost demand. Consider going long on the main contract [53][55][56]. Tin - On the previous trading day, Shanghai tin rose. The supply shortage may ease with the resumption of mines, and the downstream demand is affected by Sino - US trade. A bearish and oscillating view is taken [57]. Nickel - On the previous trading day, Shanghai nickel fell. The cost support is strong, but the demand may weaken in the off - season. It is expected to remain in a supply - surplus pattern [58]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - On the previous trading day, industrial silicon and polysilicon futures continued to decline. The demand in the industrial chain is weak, the supply decline is limited, and the price is expected to continue to be under pressure [59]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - On the previous trading day, soybean oil and soybean meal futures fell. The supply of soybeans is expected to be loose, the demand for soybean oil and soybean meal is expected to increase slightly. Adopt a wait - and - see attitude for soybean meal and consider out - of - the money call options for soybean oil at the bottom [60][61]. Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil prices fell. The market is concerned about the May production outlook, and the inventory may increase. Consider the opportunity to widen the soybean oil - palm oil spread [62][63]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed prices fell. The import of rapeseed in the EU has increased, and China has imposed tariffs on Canadian rapeseed products. Consider buying opportunities for rapeseed meal after a pullback [64][65]. Cotton - The domestic cotton market showed a volatile trend. The planting area in China has increased, and the demand is affected by tariffs. A wait - and - see attitude is recommended [66][67][68]. Sugar - The domestic sugar market showed a volatile trend. Brazil is entering the production acceleration period, and the sugar production in India is lower than expected. The domestic inventory is neutral, and a wait - and - see attitude is recommended [69][71][72]. Apples - The domestic apple futures showed a sharp rise and then a fall. The cold - storage inventory is low, and the new - year production increase is expected. A wait - and - see attitude is recommended [73][74][75]. Live Pigs - The price of live pigs showed a slight decline. The supply may increase after the holiday, and the demand will enter a short - term off - season. Consider waiting and seeing [76][77]. Eggs - The price of eggs fell. The supply is expected to increase in May, and the pre - holiday stocking may provide support. Consider reverse - spread opportunities [78][79]. Corn and Corn Starch - Corn futures closed flat, and corn starch futures rose. The supply of corn is expected to be in a surplus state, and the demand is weak. A wait - and - see attitude is recommended [80][81]. Logs - On the previous trading day, log futures rose. The supply is affected by holidays and weather, and the demand is weak. The market is in a weak state with no obvious driving force [82][83][84].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes various futures markets, including bonds, stocks, precious metals, and commodities. It suggests that investors should remain cautious in the bond market, be optimistic about the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets, and consider long - positions in gold futures. For different commodities, it provides specific trading strategies based on their supply - demand fundamentals, cost factors, and market sentiment [6][8][11]. Summary by Related Catalogs Bonds - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Treasury bond futures showed a mixed performance. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year Treasury bond futures had different price changes. The central bank conducted 530.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations on April 30, with a net injection of 422.8 billion yuan. In April, the manufacturing PMI declined, while the non - manufacturing and composite PMIs remained in the expansion zone [5]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The external environment is favorable for Treasury bond futures, but the current yield is relatively low. The Chinese economy shows a stable recovery trend, and there is room for domestic demand policies. Tariffs may be adjusted repeatedly, so investors are advised to remain cautious, expecting increased volatility [6][7]. Stocks - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed results. The CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures had different price changes [8]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: Although tariffs disrupt the domestic economic recovery rhythm and global recession risks increase, domestic asset valuations are low, and there is policy - hedging space. The report is optimistic about the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets and suggests considering long - positions in stock index futures [8][9]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, gold and silver futures prices declined. In April, the US non - farm payrolls increased, and the unemployment rate remained stable. The US GDP in the first quarter declined [10]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The complex global trade and financial environment, potential central bank policy easing, and tariff impacts are expected to drive up gold prices. The long - term bullish trend of precious metals continues, and investors are advised to buy gold futures on dips [10][11][12]. Steel and Related Products - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures showed weak oscillations. The real - estate downturn suppresses rebar demand, but the peak - season demand may provide short - term support. The valuation is low, and the price has support at the previous low. Investors can look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds and manage positions carefully [13]. - **Iron Ore**: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures oscillated. The increase in iron ore demand and the decrease in supply and inventory support the price. The valuation is relatively high among black - series products, and the price has support at the previous low. Investors can look for long - buying opportunities at low levels and set stop - losses [14][15]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures continued to decline. Coking coal supply is loose, and coke demand has improved slightly, but the possibility of price increases is low. The price may test the previous low again. Investors can look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds [17]. - **Ferroalloys**: On April 30, manganese - silicon and silicon - iron futures prices declined. Manganese - ore supply may be disrupted, and the supply of ferroalloys is still high while demand is weak. With the arrival of the peak season for steel demand, the supply - demand situation is improving. Investors can consider call options for manganese - silicon and exiting short - positions for silicon - iron [19][20]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil prices dropped significantly. The CFTC data shows changes in WTI crude oil and natural gas futures positions. The number of US oil and gas rigs decreased, and OPEC + agreed to increase oil supply in June. The report suggests waiting and seeing for crude oil futures [21][22][23]. - **Fuel Oil**: On the previous trading day, fuel oil prices followed crude oil and dropped significantly. The market structure of high - sulfur fuel oil has slightly improved. The possible relaxation of US sanctions on Russia and the expected signing of tariff agreements have different impacts on fuel oil prices. The report suggests short - selling fuel oil futures [23][24]. Rubber - **Synthetic Rubber**: On the previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures prices declined. Supply pressure persists, demand improvement is limited, and the cost has weakened. The short - term trend is expected to be weak [25][26]. - **Natural Rubber**: On the previous trading day, natural rubber futures prices showed mixed results. The expected increase in global supply and the impact of tariffs on demand are expected to keep the price in a weak oscillation [27][28]. Chemical Products - **PVC**: On the previous trading day, PVC futures prices declined. Supply pressure has eased marginally, demand is weakly recovering, and the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [29][30]. - **Urea**: On the previous trading day, urea futures prices increased. The approaching summer fertilizer - preparation period may increase demand, but supply elasticity is high. The potential Indian tender and domestic export - policy adjustment may affect the price. Investors should pay attention to export changes [31][32]. - **PX**: On the previous trading day, PX futures prices declined. PX device maintenance has reduced the load, and downstream PTA demand has improved. The short - term crude - oil price is under pressure, and PX is expected to oscillate with the cost [33]. - **PTA**: On the previous trading day, PTA futures prices declined. The planned maintenance of PTA devices and the expected improvement in exports may provide some support, but the external crude - oil price is under pressure. The price is expected to oscillate [34]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: On the previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures prices declined. The restart of coal - based devices and high inventory limit the price rebound. The price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [35]. - **Short - Fiber**: On the previous trading day, short - fiber futures prices declined. The supply load is high, downstream demand is weak, and the price is expected to follow the cost and oscillate [36]. - **Bottle Chips**: On the previous trading day, bottle - chip futures prices increased. The raw - material price is under pressure, and the supply - demand fundamentals lack drivers. The price is expected to follow the cost and oscillate [37]. - **Soda Ash**: On the previous trading day, soda - ash futures prices declined. Device maintenance in May may cause short - term price adjustments, but the supply is still high, and the market is weak in the short term [38][39]. - **Glass**: On the previous trading day, glass futures prices declined. The production line is at a low level, inventory changes little, and demand is weak. The post - holiday market sentiment is expected to be weak [40]. - **Caustic Soda**: On the previous trading day, caustic - soda futures prices increased. The demand from the alumina and non - alumina industries is limited, but device maintenance in May may provide some drivers [41][42]. - **Paper Pulp**: On the previous trading day, paper - pulp futures prices declined. Inventory is accumulating, supply is increasing, and market trading is light. The price reflects a pessimistic outlook [43]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: On the previous trading day, lithium - carbonate futures prices declined. The supply is high, demand is weakening, and the price is expected to be weak [44][45]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper futures prices dropped significantly. Although the ICSG expects a copper supply surplus, the demand may recover after the tariff friction eases. The report suggests long - buying Shanghai copper futures [46][47]. - **Tin**: On the previous trading day, LME tin prices increased. The复产 of major mines may ease the supply shortage, but the impact of Sino - US trade on the downstream electronics market remains. The price is expected to be under pressure and oscillate weakly [48]. - **Nickel**: On the previous trading day, LME nickel prices increased. The supply of nickel ore is tightened, and the cost provides support, but the downstream acceptance of high prices is low. The demand may weaken in the off - season, and the market is expected to remain in a supply - surplus situation. Investors are advised to wait and see [49]. - **Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon**: On the previous trading day, industrial - silicon and polysilicon futures prices declined. The supply - demand imbalance persists, and the market is pessimistic about the future demand. The prices are expected to be weak [50][51]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: On April 30, soybean - meal futures prices declined, and soybean - oil futures prices increased. The smooth progress of US soybean planting and the Brazilian soybean harvest increase supply. The demand for soybean oil and soybean meal is expected to increase slightly. The report suggests waiting and seeing for soybean - meal futures and considering call options for soybean - oil futures at the bottom [52][53]. - **Palm Oil**: Malaysian palm - oil prices declined. The inventory may increase, and the domestic import volume has changed. The report suggests considering the opportunity to expand the spread between soybean oil and palm oil [54][55][56]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: Canadian rapeseed prices declined. China has imposed tariffs on Canadian rapeseed products. The inventory of rapeseed, rapeseed meal, and rapeseed oil has changed. The report suggests considering long - buying rapeseed meal after a pullback [57][58]. - **Cotton**: During the holiday, the external cotton price increased. The planting progress in the US and China has been reported. The high - level tariffs between China and the US affect demand, and the domestic downstream demand is weak. The report suggests waiting and seeing [59][60][61]. - **Sugar**: During the holiday, the external raw - sugar price fluctuated slightly. Brazil is entering the production - acceleration period, and the Indian sugar production is lower than expected. The domestic sugar inventory is neutral, and the import volume is low. The report suggests waiting and seeing [62][63][64]. - **Apples**: On the previous trading day, domestic apple futures prices oscillated. The inventory is low, and the consumption is good. The new - year production is expected to increase. The report suggests waiting and seeing [66][67][68]. - **Pigs**: During the holiday, the pig price increased first and then stabilized. The supply is expected to increase after the holiday, and the demand may weaken. The price is expected to oscillate weakly first and then strengthen. The report suggests waiting and seeing [69][70][71]. - **Eggs**: During the holiday, the egg price increased slightly. The supply is expected to increase in May, and the price may decline after the Dragon Boat Festival. The report suggests holding reverse spreads [72]. - **Corn and Starch**: On April 30, corn and corn - starch futures prices increased. The US corn planting is progressing smoothly, and the Brazilian corn production is expected to increase. The domestic corn supply is under pressure in the short term, and the demand is slightly increasing. Corn - starch production and demand are weak, and the inventory is high. The report suggests waiting and seeing [73][74]. - **Logs**: On the previous trading day, log futures prices declined. The supply is affected by holidays and weather, and the demand from the real - estate sector is weak. The market has no obvious drivers, and the price is expected to be weak [75][76][77].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The external environment is favorable for Treasury bond futures, but current Treasury bond yields are at a relatively low level. It is recommended to maintain a certain degree of caution as the Chinese economy shows a steady recovery trend and there is room for domestic demand policies to exert force [6]. - It is not advisable to be overly bearish on the Chinese equity market. After event shocks, the Chinese economy and Chinese assets will still operate according to their own laws. The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and investors should wait for long - entry opportunities [9]. - The long - term value of gold is still optimistic, and investors should wait for long - entry opportunities as the long - term upward logic remains strong [11][13]. - For steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coils, investors can focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds, take profits in time, and pay attention to position management [14]. - For iron ore, investors can focus on long - entry opportunities at low levels, take profits on rebounds, and stop losses if the previous low is broken, while paying attention to position management [16]. - For coking coal and coke, investors can focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds, take profits in time, and pay attention to position management [17]. - For ferroalloys, investors can consider long - entry opportunities for out - of - the - money call options on ferromanganese silicon at low levels and short - sellers of ferrosilicon can consider exiting at the bottom range [20]. - For crude oil, it is recommended to take a short - biased operation on the main contract [22][23]. - For fuel oil, it is recommended to take a short - biased operation on the main contract [24][25]. - For synthetic rubber, it should be treated with a sideways trading mindset [26][28]. - For natural rubber, the price is expected to maintain a weak sideways trend [29][30]. - For PVC, the price is expected to maintain a bottom - sideways trend [31][33]. - For urea, the price is expected to be weak in the short term [34][35]. - For PX, it is expected to follow the cost side for sideways adjustment, and interval trading is recommended [36][37]. - For PTA, the price is expected to trade sideways in the short term, and interval trading is recommended [38]. - For ethylene glycol, the price is expected to trade sideways at the bottom in the short term, and cautious participation is recommended [39][40]. - For staple fiber, it will follow the cost side for short - term sideways adjustment, and cautious participation is recommended [41]. - For bottle chips, the price is expected to follow the cost side for sideways movement, and attention should be paid to cost price changes [42]. - For soda ash, the market will continue to be weak in the short term [45]. - For glass, the market sentiment is expected to be dominated by weakness [46]. - For caustic soda, the price of Shandong liquid caustic soda is likely to weaken slightly in the short term [48]. - For pulp, the supply is increasing rapidly, and the market is pessimistic [49][50]. - For lithium carbonate, the price is expected to be weak [51]. - For copper, the price trend is expected to be strong, and a long - biased operation on the main contract is recommended [53][54]. - For tin, the price is expected to trade sideways in the short term, and risk control is necessary [55]. - For nickel, short - term risk control is necessary, and cautious waiting and watching are recommended [56][57]. - For industrial silicon and polysilicon, the fundamentals remain weak, and a bearish outlook is maintained [58][59]. - For soybean oil and soybean meal, it is recommended to wait and watch for soybean meal, and investors can focus on out - of - the - money call options on soybean oil at the bottom support range [60][61]. - For palm oil, it is recommended to wait and watch temporarily [62][63]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, investors can consider the opportunity to expand the spread after the soybean - rapeseed spread narrows [63][64]. - For cotton, after a rebound, short - selling of far - month contracts at high prices is recommended [65][66]. - For sugar, it is recommended to wait and watch [68][70]. - For apples, after a pullback, long - entry at low prices is recommended [72][74]. - For live pigs, after taking profits, investors should wait and watch [75][76]. - For eggs, investors can focus on reverse spread opportunities [77][78]. - For corn and corn starch, it is recommended to wait and watch temporarily [79][80]. - For logs, the market has no obvious driving force, and the spot price has a weak support for the futures price [81][83]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Treasury Bonds - The previous trading day saw all Treasury bond futures closing higher. The central bank conducted 340.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 120 billion yuan. The weighted average interest rate of newly issued commercial personal housing loans in Q1 2025 was 3.11% [5]. - The external environment is favorable for Treasury bond futures, but yields are low. The Chinese economy shows a steady recovery, and it is recommended to be cautious [6]. - The volatility is expected to increase, and caution should be maintained [7]. Stock Index Futures - The previous trading day saw mixed performance in stock index futures. As of the end of March, the custody balance of overseas institutions in the Chinese bond market was 4.4 trillion yuan [8][9]. - The domestic economy is stable, but tariffs disrupt the recovery rhythm. The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is optimistic, and investors should wait for long - entry opportunities [9]. Precious Metals - The previous trading day saw gold and silver futures rising. In Q1 2025, the domestic gold ETF holdings increased by 23.47 tons, and the gold consumption decreased by 5.96% year - on - year [11]. - The long - term value of gold is optimistic, and investors should wait for long - entry opportunities as the long - term upward logic remains strong [11][13]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - The previous trading day saw rebar and hot - rolled coil futures weakly oscillating. The real - estate downturn suppresses rebar prices, but short - term peak - season demand may support prices. The valuation is low, and there may be short - selling opportunities on rebounds [14]. Iron Ore - The previous trading day saw iron ore futures oscillating. The increase in iron ore demand and the decrease in supply support the price. The valuation is high, and there may be long - entry opportunities at low levels [16]. Coking Coal and Coke - The previous trading day saw coking coal and coke futures continuing to correct. The supply of coking coal is loose, and the demand for coke is improving slightly. There may be short - selling opportunities on rebounds [17]. Ferroalloys - The previous trading day saw manganese silicon and ferrosilicon futures falling. The supply of manganese ore is disturbed, and the demand for ferroalloys is weak. There may be opportunities for out - of - the - money call options on ferromanganese silicon at low levels [19][20]. Crude Oil - The previous trading day saw INE crude oil dropping significantly. Market concerns about OPEC's production increase and other factors put pressure on the price. A short - biased operation is recommended [21][23]. Fuel Oil - The previous trading day saw fuel oil dropping significantly following crude oil. The Asian fuel oil market may strengthen, but there are still supply and demand issues. A short - biased operation is recommended [24][25]. Synthetic Rubber - The previous trading day saw synthetic rubber futures falling. The supply pressure persists, and the demand improvement is limited. It is expected to trade sideways [26][28]. Natural Rubber - The previous trading day saw natural rubber futures falling. The global supply is expected to increase, and the demand is affected by tariffs. The price is expected to be weak [29][30]. PVC - The previous trading day saw PVC futures falling. The supply pressure eases marginally, and the demand recovers weakly. The price is expected to trade sideways at the bottom [31][33]. Urea - The previous trading day saw urea futures falling. The agricultural demand will decline seasonally in May, and the supply pressure will increase. The price is expected to be weak in the short term [34][35]. PX - The previous trading day saw PX futures falling. The PX load decreases slightly, and the downstream PTA start - up rate increases. The short - term crude oil price is under pressure, and PX is expected to follow the cost side for adjustment [36][37]. PTA - The previous trading day saw PTA futures falling. The PTA load increases, and the polyester load rises slightly. The cost support is insufficient, and the price is expected to trade sideways [38]. Ethylene Glycol - The previous trading day saw ethylene glycol futures oscillating. The coal - based plants are restarting, and the inventory is high. The price is expected to trade sideways at the bottom [39][40]. Short Fiber - The previous trading day saw short - fiber futures rising. The short - fiber device load is at a relatively high level, and the downstream demand is weak. It will follow the cost side for adjustment [41]. Bottle Chips - The previous trading day saw bottle - chip futures falling. The raw material price is under pressure, and the supply and demand fundamentals lack driving force. The price is expected to follow the cost side [42]. Soda Ash - The previous trading day saw soda ash futures rising slightly. The supply remains high, and the demand is weak. The market is expected to be weak in the short term [43][45]. Glass - The previous trading day saw glass futures falling. The production line is at a low level, and the inventory changes little. The market sentiment is weak [46]. Caustic Soda - The previous trading day saw caustic soda futures falling. The production of downstream alumina is fluctuating, and the non - aluminum demand is weak. The price of Shandong liquid caustic soda is expected to weaken slightly [47][48]. Pulp - The previous trading day saw pulp futures falling. The inventory accumulates, and the supply increases rapidly. The market is pessimistic [49][50]. Lithium Carbonate - The previous trading day saw lithium carbonate futures falling. The supply is high, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to be weak [51]. Copper - The previous trading day saw Shanghai copper oscillating slightly. The spot market is stable, and the price is expected to be strong. A long - biased operation is recommended [52][54]. Tin - The previous trading day saw tin futures falling slightly. The supply is affected by various factors, and the demand is good. The price is expected to trade sideways in the short term [55]. Nickel - The previous trading day saw nickel futures falling slightly. The supply is tightened, and the cost is supported, but the demand may weaken. Short - term risk control is necessary [56][57]. Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon - The previous trading day saw industrial silicon and polysilicon futures falling significantly. The supply - demand imbalance persists, and the price is expected to be weak [58][59]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - The previous trading day saw soybean oil and soybean meal futures falling. The US soybean planting rate is slightly faster, and the Brazilian soybean is in a record - high harvest. It is recommended to wait and watch for soybean meal and focus on out - of - the money call options on soybean oil at the bottom [60][61]. Palm Oil - The previous trading day saw palm oil futures falling. The Malaysian palm oil inventory may increase, and the export is growing. It is recommended to wait and watch temporarily [62][63]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The previous trading day saw rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil futures falling. China has imposed tariffs on Canadian rapeseed products. Investors can consider the opportunity to expand the spread after the soybean - rapeseed spread narrows [63][64]. Cotton - The previous trading day saw domestic cotton futures falling slightly. The US cotton planting rate is increasing, and the Chinese textile export is weak. After a rebound, short - selling of far - month contracts at high prices is recommended [65][66]. Sugar - The previous trading day saw domestic sugar futures oscillating. The Brazilian sugar is starting to be squeezed, and the Indian sugar production is lower than expected. It is recommended to wait and watch [68][70]. Apples - The previous trading day saw apple futures oscillating. The inventory is low, and the consumption is good. After a pullback, long - entry at low prices is recommended [72][74]. Live Pigs - The previous trading day saw live - pig futures falling. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. After taking profits, investors should wait and watch [75][76]. Eggs - The previous trading day saw egg futures rising slightly. The egg production is increasing, and the cost is high. Investors can focus on reverse spread opportunities [77][78]. Corn and Corn Starch - The previous trading day saw corn and corn starch futures rising slightly. The US corn planting rate is normal, and the domestic supply is under pressure. It is recommended to wait and watch temporarily [79][80]. Logs - The previous trading day saw log futures falling. The arrival of logs is decreasing, and the inventory is relatively stable. The market has no obvious driving force [81][83].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is affected by factors such as tariffs, geopolitical risks, and macro - policy adjustments. Different industries show various trends, and investors are advised to adopt different strategies according to the characteristics of each industry [6][9][11] Summary by Related Catalogs Bonds - **Treasury Bonds**: On the previous trading day, most treasury bond futures closed higher. The central bank conducted 279 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 103 billion yuan. The external environment is favorable for treasury bond futures, but yields are relatively low. It is expected that the volatility will increase, and caution is advised [5][6][7] Stocks - **Stock Index Futures**: On the previous trading day, stock index futures fluctuated slightly. Although tariffs disrupt the domestic economic recovery rhythm and global recession risks increase, domestic asset valuations are low, and policies have hedging space. It is still optimistic about the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets, waiting for long - entry opportunities [8][9][10] Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: On the previous trading day, gold and silver futures prices declined. In Q1 2025, China's domestic gold ETF holdings increased. The complex global trade and financial environment and tariff disturbances are expected to drive up the gold price. It is still optimistic about the long - term value of gold, waiting for long - entry opportunities [11][12] Metals - **Steel Products (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil)**: On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures oscillated weakly. The downward trend of the real estate industry suppresses prices, but the peak demand season may provide short - term support. The valuation is low, and there are signs of technical support. Investors can focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds [13][14] - **Iron Ore**: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures pulled back slightly. The increase in iron ore demand and the decrease in supply and inventory support prices. The valuation is relatively high. Investors can focus on long - entry opportunities at low levels [16] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures continued to decline. The supply of coking coal is loose, and the transaction atmosphere has weakened. The shipment of coke has improved, but the possibility of price increases is reduced. There are signs of a technical bottom. Investors can focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds [18][19] - **Ferroalloys**: On the previous trading day, manganese silicon and silicon iron futures declined. The supply of manganese ore may be disturbed, and the demand for ferroalloys is weak. The high inventory exerts pressure. With the arrival of the peak demand season for steel, the demand for ferroalloys is expected to pick up. Investors can consider relevant option opportunities [21][22] - **Copper**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper rebounded after reaching the bottom. The market expects policies to stabilize the market and promote economic growth. The copper price is expected to be strong, and long - entry operations are recommended [55][56] - **Tin**: On the previous trading day, tin prices declined. The supply and demand fundamentals are affected by multiple factors, and the price is expected to oscillate. Risk control is required in the short term [57][58] - **Nickel**: On the previous trading day, nickel prices rose. The supply of ore is tightened, providing cost support, but the demand may weaken in the off - season. The price is affected by macro - pessimistic sentiment, and caution is advised in the short term [59] - **Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon**: On the previous trading day, the prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon futures declined. The supply - demand imbalance persists, and the prices are expected to be weak. Short - selling operations on rebounds can be considered [60][61] Energy - **Crude Oil**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil oscillated upward. The geopolitical situation is complex, and the resistance of Brent crude at $70 is strong. It is recommended to wait and see [23][24][25] - **Fuel Oil**: On the previous trading day, fuel oil followed crude oil and oscillated higher. The supply of high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be tight, but the inventory in Singapore has increased significantly. It is recommended to wait and see [26][27] Chemicals - **Synthetic Rubber**: On the previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures rose slightly. The supply pressure persists, the demand improvement is limited, and the cost is stable. It is expected to oscillate [28][29] - **Natural Rubber**: On the previous trading day, natural rubber futures declined. The global supply is expected to increase, and the demand is affected by tariffs. It is expected to be weak and oscillate [30][31][32] - **PVC**: On the previous trading day, PVC futures rose slightly. The supply pressure eases marginally, and the demand recovers weakly. It is expected to oscillate at the bottom [33][34][35] - **Urea**: On the previous trading day, urea futures rose. The agricultural demand will decline seasonally in May, and the supply pressure will increase. It is expected to be weak in the short term [36][37][38] - **PX**: On the previous trading day, PX futures rose. The PX load decreased due to maintenance, and the downstream demand improved. The short - term support from crude oil is limited. It is expected to oscillate with the cost [39] - **PTA**: On the previous trading day, PTA futures rose. The supply load increased, and the demand was affected by tariffs. The cost support was insufficient. It is expected to oscillate [40][41] - **Ethylene Glycol**: On the previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures rose. The supply load increased, the inventory was high, and the demand was affected by tariffs. It is expected to oscillate at the bottom [42] - **Short - Fiber**: On the previous trading day, short - fiber futures rose. The supply load decreased slightly, the demand was weak, and the cost support was insufficient. It is expected to oscillate with the cost [43][44] - **Bottle Chips**: On the previous trading day, bottle - chip futures rose. The cost support improved, the supply load increased, and the demand recovered. It is expected to oscillate with the cost [45] - **Soda Ash**: On the previous trading day, soda ash futures declined. The supply is high, the new orders are average, and the downstream demand is weak. It is expected to be weak in the short term [46][47][48] - **Glass**: On the previous trading day, glass futures declined. The production line is at a low level, the inventory changes little, and the demand is affected by tariffs. The market sentiment is expected to be weak [49] - **Caustic Soda**: On the previous trading day, caustic soda futures declined. The production decreased slightly, the downstream demand was weak, and the price is expected to decline slightly in the short term [50][51] - **Pulp**: On the previous trading day, pulp futures declined. The inventory increased, the downstream start - up was mixed, and the market was light. It is expected to oscillate at a relatively low level [52] - **Lithium Carbonate**: On the previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures declined. The supply is high, the demand is weak, and the inventory increases. It is expected to be weak [53][54] Agricultural Products - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: On the previous trading day, soybean oil and soybean meal futures declined. The supply of soybeans is expected to be loose, the demand for soybean oil and soybean meal is expected to increase slightly. It is recommended to wait and see for soybean meal and consider call option opportunities for soybean oil [62][63] - **Palm Oil**: On the previous trading day, palm oil futures declined. The production is expected to increase, the inventory may rise, and the export has increased. It is recommended to wait and see [64][65][66] - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The price of Canadian rapeseed fluctuated slightly. China has imposed tariffs on Canadian rapeseed products. The inventory of rapeseed and rapeseed meal decreased, and the inventory of rapeseed oil increased. Investors can consider the opportunity to expand the spread between soybean and rapeseed products [67][68] - **Cotton**: On the previous trading day, domestic cotton futures oscillated. The planting area in Xinjiang has increased, and the weather is a key factor. The textile and clothing export is affected by tariffs. It is recommended to short - sell on rebounds in the long term [69][70][71] - **Sugar**: On the previous trading day, domestic sugar futures fluctuated. The sugar production in India is lower than expected, and Brazil is gradually starting to crush. The domestic industrial inventory is neutral, and the import volume is low. It is recommended to wait and see [73][74] - **Apple**: On the previous trading day, apple futures declined significantly. The inventory is low, the consumption is good, and the spot price is strong. It is recommended to go long on dips [75][76] - **Pig**: On the previous trading day, pig futures declined slightly. The supply is sufficient, the consumption is in the off - season, and the price is expected to decline. Attention should be paid to taking profits on short positions [77][78] - **Egg**: On the previous trading day, egg futures declined. The egg supply is expected to increase, the consumption is in the off - season, and the feed cost may rise in the long term. Attention should be paid to reverse - spread opportunities [79][80] - **Corn and Corn Starch**: On the previous trading day, corn and corn starch futures rose. The supply of corn is expected to be slightly less surplus, the demand is expected to increase, and the inventory is high. Corn starch follows the corn market. It is recommended to wait and see [81][82][83] - **Log**: On the previous trading day, log futures declined. The arrival of logs decreased, the inventory was relatively stable, and the market was light. There is no obvious driving force in the fundamentals [84][85]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes various commodities including bonds, stocks, precious metals, and industrial and agricultural products, providing market trends, influencing factors, and investment strategies for each [5][8][10]. - Overall, the market is affected by factors such as tariffs, economic policies, and supply - demand relationships, with different commodities showing different trends and investment opportunities [6][8][22]. Summary by Commodity Bonds - Last trading day, most bond futures closed higher. The central bank conducted 159.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 91 billion yuan. The government plans to implement more active fiscal and monetary policies [5]. - Although external environment is favorable for bond futures, current bond yields are relatively low. China's economy shows a stable recovery trend, so it is recommended to be cautious [6]. - It is expected that the fluctuation range will increase, and caution should be maintained [7]. Stocks - Last trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. Although tariffs disrupt the domestic economic recovery rhythm and global recession risk increases, domestic asset valuations are low and policies have hedging space [8]. - It is still optimistic about the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets and suggests waiting for long - entry opportunities [9]. Precious Metals - Last trading day, gold and silver futures prices declined. The US consumer confidence index and inflation expectations have certain impacts [10]. - The complex global trade and financial environment, potential monetary policy easing, and tariff environment are expected to drive up the price of gold. It is still optimistic about the long - term value of gold, and it is recommended to take profit on previous long positions and wait for new long - entry opportunities [10][11]. Industrial Metals - **Steel Products (including rebar, hot - rolled coil)**: Last trading day, prices slightly declined. The real - estate industry's downturn suppresses demand, but the peak demand season may provide short - term support. Valuations are low, and there are signs of technical support. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds [12]. - **Iron Ore**: Last trading day, prices slightly adjusted. The increase in iron ore demand and the decrease in supply and inventory support prices. Valuations are relatively high. It is recommended to look for long - entry opportunities at low levels [14]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Last trading day, prices slightly declined. Coking coal supply is loose, while coke demand has improved to some extent. There are signs of a technical bottom. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds [16]. - **Ferroalloys**: Last trading day, prices declined. Manganese ore supply may be disrupted, and the supply - demand situation of ferroalloys is gradually improving. It is recommended to consider call options on manganese silicon and short - covering opportunities on silicon iron [18][19]. - **Copper**: Last trading day, prices rose. The cooling of tariff disputes and the possibility of a Fed rate cut in June support prices. It is expected that prices will be strong, and long - entry operations are recommended [48][49]. - **Tin**: Last trading day, prices declined. Affected by tariffs, price fluctuations have intensified. The supply side has both positive and negative factors, and demand is good. It is expected that prices will fluctuate, and risk control is needed [50][51]. - **Nickel**: Last trading day, prices declined. Affected by tariffs, the market sentiment is pessimistic. The supply side has cost support, but demand may weaken in the off - season. It is recommended to control risks and wait and see [52]. - **Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon**: Last trading day, prices declined. The supply - demand imbalance persists, and costs are expected to decrease. It is recommended to short - sell at high levels on rebounds [53][55]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Last trading day, prices fluctuated upward. The increase in net long positions of speculators and the increase in the number of oil and gas rigs are noteworthy. The Sino - US negotiation and OPEC's production policy are uncertain. It is recommended to wait and see [20][23]. - **Fuel Oil**: Last trading day, prices followed crude oil and fluctuated higher. The high - sulfur fuel oil market may enter the peak demand season, and the low - sulfur fuel oil market is stable. Due to the sanctions on Russia, the supply of high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be tight. It is recommended to wait and see [24][25]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Last trading day, prices rose. Supply pressure persists, demand improvement is limited, and costs are stable. It is expected that prices will fluctuate [26][28]. - **Natural Rubber**: Last trading day, prices showed mixed performance. The supply is expected to increase, and demand is affected by tariffs. It is expected that prices will be weakly volatile [29][30]. - **PVC**: Last trading day, prices declined. Supply pressure eases, demand recovers weakly, and inventory removal is slow. It is expected that prices will fluctuate at the bottom [31][33]. - **Urea**: Last trading day, prices declined. Agricultural demand will weaken seasonally, and new production capacity will be released. It is expected that prices will be weakly volatile in the short term [34][35]. - **PX**: Last trading day, prices rose. PX device maintenance reduces supply, and downstream demand improves. Affected by crude oil prices, it is expected that prices will fluctuate with the cost side [36][37]. - **PTA**: Last trading day, prices rose. Supply increases, demand improvement is less than expected, and costs provide support. It is expected that prices will fluctuate with the cost side [38]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Last trading day, prices declined. Supply increases, inventory removal is difficult, and demand is affected by tariffs. It is expected that prices will fluctuate at the bottom [39][40]. - **Short - Fiber**: Last trading day, prices rose. Supply is at a relatively high level, demand is weak, and costs provide limited support. It is expected that prices will fluctuate with the cost side [41]. - **Bottle Chips**: Last trading day, prices rose. Raw material prices recover, supply increases slightly, and demand improves. It is expected that prices will fluctuate with the cost side [42]. - **Soda Ash**: Last trading day, prices declined. Supply remains high, demand is weak, and inventory removal is slow. It is expected that the market will remain weak in the short term [43]. - **Glass**: Last trading day, prices declined. Production lines are at a low level, inventory changes little, and demand is affected by tariffs. It is expected that the market sentiment will be weak [44]. - **Caustic Soda**: Last trading day, prices declined. Some large - scale devices are under maintenance, demand from the alumina industry is limited, and the market turns weak again [45]. - **Pulp**: Last trading day, prices declined slightly. Inventory accumulates, downstream start - up rates vary, and the market is weak and volatile [46]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: Last trading day, soybean meal prices declined, and soybean oil prices rose. Argentine weather is favorable for soybean harvesting, and domestic soybean supply is expected to be loose. It is recommended to wait and see for soybean meal and consider call options on soybean oil at the bottom [56][57]. - **Palm Oil**: Malaysian palm oil prices rose. Domestic imports increase, and inventory accumulates. It is recommended to wait and see [58][60]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: Canadian rapeseed prices rose. China has imposed tariffs on Canadian rapeseed products. Inventory shows different trends. It is recommended to consider the opportunity to expand the spread between soybean and rapeseed products [61][62]. - **Cotton**: Last trading day, prices fluctuated. The spring sowing of Xinjiang cotton is almost completed, and weather is a key factor. Textile exports are affected by tariffs. It is recommended to short - sell at high levels on rebounds in the long - term [63][68]. - **Sugar**: Last trading day, domestic sugar prices rose slightly, and international sugar prices rose significantly. Indian sugar production is lower than expected, and domestic supply pressure is not large. It is recommended to wait and see [70][72]. - **Apple**: Last trading day, prices rose significantly. Inventory is low, consumption is good, and spot prices are strong. It is recommended to go long at low levels after corrections [74][75]. - **Pig**: Last trading day, prices declined. Supply increases, consumption is in the off - season, and prices are expected to decline in the short term. It is recommended to take profit on previous short positions [76][78]. - **Egg**: Last trading day, prices were stable. Egg supply is expected to increase, and consumption is in the off - season. It is recommended to pay attention to reverse spread opportunities [79][80]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: Last trading day, prices rose. Corn supply is still under pressure in the short term, but the bottom is supported. Corn starch follows the corn market. It is recommended to wait and see [81][83]. - **Log**: Last trading day, prices rose. Log prices decline, inventory is relatively neutral, and the real - estate market is in the destocking cycle. The spot market provides weak support for the futures market [84][85].

2025 年 4 月 25 日星期五 地址： 电话： 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-67070250 上海市浦东新区向城路 288 号 1101A； 021-61101856 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 | 尿素： | | 11 | | --- | --- | --- | | 对二甲苯 | PX： | 11 | | PTA： | | 12 | | 乙二醇： | | 12 | | 短纤： | | 13 | | 瓶片： | | 13 | | 纯碱： | | 13 | | 玻璃： | | 14 | | 烧碱： | | 14 | | 纸浆： | | 15 | | 碳酸锂： | | 15 | | 铜： | | 16 | | --- | --- | --- | | 锡： | | 16 | | 镍： | | 17 | | 工业硅/多晶硅： | | 17 | | 豆油、豆粕： | | 17 | | 棕榈油： | | 18 | | 菜粕、菜油： | | 19 | | 棉花： | | 19 | | 白糖： | | 20 | | 苹果： | | 21 | | 生猪： | | 22 | | 鸡蛋： | | 22 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information indicating the overall industry investment ratings in the report. Core Views - The external environment is favorable for Treasury bond futures, but considering the relatively low current Treasury bond yields and China's economic recovery potential, it is recommended to maintain a certain degree of caution [6]. - It is not advisable to be overly bearish on China's equity market. After event shocks, China's economy and assets will still operate according to their own laws, and the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic [10]. - The long - term value of gold is still promising. It is advisable to temporarily take profit on previous long positions and wait for opportunities to go long [14]. - For various commodities, different trading strategies are proposed based on their supply - demand fundamentals, valuation, and technical aspects, such as short - term trading, waiting for opportunities, or temporary observation in the face of complex market conditions. Summary by Category Treasury Bonds - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, Treasury bond futures closed down across the board, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year主力 contracts down 0.40%, 0.17%, 0.13%, and 0.04% respectively [5]. - **Analysis**: The external environment is favorable, but yields are low. China's economy shows a stable recovery trend, so it is recommended to be cautious. It is expected that the volatility will increase [6][7]. Stock Index Futures - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed results. The CSI 300, SSE 50, and CSI 500 futures主力 contracts were down 0.16%, 0.53%, and 0.04% respectively, while the CSI 1000 futures主力 contract was up 0.65% [8]. - **Analysis**: Although the current domestic economy is stable, tariffs disrupt the recovery rhythm. However, due to low domestic asset valuations and policy hedging space, it is not advisable to be overly bearish on the Chinese equity market. The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic [10]. Precious Metals - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the gold主力 contract closed at 784.28, down 5.67%, and the silver主力 contract closed at 8,199, up 0.31% [12]. - **Analysis**: The long - term value of gold is still promising. Temporarily take profit on previous long positions and wait for opportunities to go long [14]. Steel Products (Ribbed Bars, Hot - Rolled Coils) - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, ribbed bar and hot - rolled coil futures rebounded slightly. The spot prices of billets, ribbed bars, and hot - rolled coils are in specific ranges [16]. - **Analysis**: The downward trend of the real estate industry suppresses prices, but short - term seasonal demand may support prices. The valuation is low, and there is support at the previous low. Investors can focus on shorting opportunities on rebounds and pay attention to position management [16]. Iron Ore - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures rebounded significantly. The spot prices of PB powder and super - special powder are given [18]. - **Analysis**: The increase in demand and the decrease in supply support prices. The valuation is relatively high in the black series. Investors can focus on buying at low levels and take profit on rebounds [18]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures rebounded sharply [21]. - **Analysis**: The supply of coking coal is loose, and the demand for coke has improved. The spot price increase is limited. There are signs of a stop - fall. Investors can focus on shorting opportunities on rebounds [21]. Ferroalloys - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the manganese - silicon主力 contract rose 0.82%, and the silicon - iron主力 contract rose 0.32%. The spot prices are stable [23]. - **Analysis**: The demand for ferroalloys is weak, and the supply is still high. The supply - demand imbalance is gradually improving. Consider opportunities for out - of - the - money call options on manganese - silicon and short - covering opportunities for silicon - iron [24]. Crude Oil - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil rose significantly [25]. - **Analysis**: The macro - level changes are large, and the geopolitical risks are high. The resistance of Brent crude at $70 is strong. It is recommended to temporarily observe [26][27]. Fuel Oil - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, fuel oil rose significantly, following crude oil [28]. - **Analysis**: The macro - level changes are large, and the cost of crude oil drives the price up. The supply of high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be tight, and the trend is expected to be volatile and bullish. It is recommended to temporarily observe [28][29]. Synthetic Rubber - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the synthetic rubber主力 contract rose 2.96%, and the mainstream price in Shandong was stable [30]. - **Analysis**: The supply pressure persists, and the demand improvement is limited. It is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend [30][32]. Natural Rubber - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the natural rubber主力 contract and 20 - rubber主力 contract rose slightly, and the Shanghai spot price increased [33]. - **Analysis**: The global supply is expected to increase, and the demand is affected by tariffs. It is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend [33][34]. PVC - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PVC主力 contract rose 0.60%, and the spot price was basically stable [35]. - **Analysis**: The supply pressure eases marginally, and the demand recovers weakly. The market is expected to be volatile [35]. Urea - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the urea主力 contract fell 0.56%, and the price in Shandong Linyi decreased [38]. - **Analysis**: The agricultural demand is off - season, the new production capacity is released, and the inventory increases. It is expected to be weak in the short term [38][39]. PX - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PX2509主力 contract rose 2.91%, and the spreads decreased [40]. - **Analysis**: The PX devices are under maintenance, the downstream PTA starts to decline, and the cost support is enhanced. It is expected to adjust with the cost and operate cautiously [40][41]. PTA - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PTA2509主力 contract rose 2.51%, and the price in the East China market is given [42]. - **Analysis**: The supply and demand fundamentals have little contradiction, and the external crude oil price strengthens. It is expected to run volatilely and operate following the cost [42]. Ethylene Glycol - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the ethylene glycol主力 contract rose 1.27%, and the price in the East China market is given [43]. - **Analysis**: The coal - based devices are under maintenance, the supply is reduced, but the high inventory limits the rebound. It is expected to run at the bottom and operate cautiously [43][45]. Short - Fiber - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the short - fiber 2506主力 contract rose 1.94% [46]. - **Analysis**: The downstream demand is weak, and the cost support is improved. It is expected to adjust with the cost and operate cautiously [46]. Bottle Chips - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the bottle - chip 2506主力 contract rose 1.68% [47]. - **Analysis**: The raw material price recovers, and the supply - demand fundamentals improve slightly. It is expected to run with the cost and pay attention to cost changes [47]. Soda Ash - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the 2509主力 contract of soda ash closed at 1373 yuan/ton, up 3.39% [48]. - **Analysis**: The supply is high, the new orders are average, and the downstream procurement is not active. It is expected to remain weak in the short term [49]. Glass - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the 2509主力 contract of glass closed at 1154 yuan/ton, up 2.21% [50]. - **Analysis**: The production line is at a low level, the inventory changes little, and the market sentiment is weak due to tariff impacts [50]. Caustic Soda - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the 2509主力 contract of caustic soda closed at 2496 yuan/ton, up 0.65% [51]. - **Analysis**: Some large - scale devices are under maintenance, and the profit improves. The alumina has limited positive drivers, and the market turns weak again [52]. Pulp - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the 2507主力 contract of pulp closed at 5402 yuan/ton, up 0.93% [53]. - **Analysis**: The inventory accumulates slightly, the downstream starts vary, and the market is affected by tariff news. It is expected to be volatile at a low level [53]. Lithium Carbonate - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the lithium carbonate主力 contract rose 1.14% to 68980 yuan/ton [54]. - **Analysis**: The macro - events affect the market, the supply is high, the demand is weak, and the inventory accumulates. It is expected to run weakly [54][55]. Copper - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper oscillated upwards [56]. - **Analysis**: The Sino - US tariffs are expected to be reduced, and the copper price is expected to be bullish. It is recommended to take long positions [56][57]. Tin - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, tin rose 1.11% to 261480 yuan/ton [58]. - **Analysis**: The tin price fluctuates due to tariffs. The supply and demand factors are intertwined. It is expected to run volatilely, and control risks in the short term [58][59]. Nickel - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the nickel price fell 0.55% to 125120 yuan/ton [60]. - **Analysis**: The market sentiment is pessimistic due to tariffs. The supply is tightened, and the cost is supported, but the demand is weak. It is recommended to control risks and observe cautiously [60]. Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the industrial silicon and polysilicon futures fell significantly, and the spot prices decreased [61]. - **Analysis**: The fundamentals are weak, and it is recommended to short at high levels on rebounds [61][62]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the soybean meal main contract was flat, and the soybean oil main contract rose 1.19%. The spot prices increased [63]. - **Analysis**: The trade concerns ease, the supply is loose, and the demand is expected to increase slightly. Observe for soybean meal and consider out - of - the - money call options for soybean oil [63][64]. Palm Oil - **Performance**: The Malaysian palm oil closed up, and the domestic import volume increased in March [65]. - **Analysis**: It is recommended to temporarily observe [67]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - **Performance**: The Canadian rapeseed rose for the second consecutive day. The domestic import volume of rapeseed oil increased, while that of rapeseed and rapeseed meal decreased in March [68]. - **Analysis**: Consider the opportunity to expand the spread between soybean and rapeseed products [69]. Cotton - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, domestic Zhengzhou cotton rebounded slightly, and the external cotton rose overnight [70]. - **Analysis**: The tariffs affect the demand, and the domestic downstream demand is weak. It is recommended to short at high levels on rebounds for the far - month contracts [72][73]. Sugar - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, domestic Zhengzhou sugar fell slightly, and the external raw sugar fell slightly [74]. - **Analysis**: The international raw sugar is affected by multiple factors, and the domestic supply pressure is not large. It is recommended to observe [76][77]. Apples - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, domestic apple futures oscillated at a high level [78]. - **Analysis**: The inventory is low, the consumption is good, and the spot price is strong. It is recommended to go long at low levels after corrections [78][80]. Live Pigs - **Performance**: The national average price of live pigs was flat. The futures主力 contract fell 0.93% [81][82]. - **Analysis**: The group - farmed pigs' planned output in April has limited increase, and the consumption is in the off - season. The spot price may be supported in the short term, and the far - month contracts may be affected by cost expectations [82]. Eggs - **Performance**: The average price of eggs in the main production and sales areas was flat. The cost and profit are in a narrow - range oscillation [83]. - **Analysis**: The supply of eggs is expected to increase in April, and the consumption is in the off - season. Consider the opportunity for reverse spreads [83][84]. Corn - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the corn主力 contract rose 0.35%. The spot prices in the north and south ports are given [85]. - **Analysis**: The domestic corn supply surplus eases, and the demand increases slightly. The short - term supply pressure exists. It is recommended to observe [85][86]. Logs - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the 2507主力 contract of logs closed at 798.5 yuan/ton, down 0.13% [87]. - **Analysis**: The tropical cyclone affects the shipment, and the spot price is weak. The inventory is relatively neutral, and the real - estate demand is weak [87].