1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the text. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. The market risk preference has significantly increased, and the trend of treasury bond futures is not clear [7]. - The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak. The market sentiment has warmed up recently, and the increase of the market is large with high volatility. For stock index futures, those who hold long positions can gradually take profits [8]. - The global trade and financial environment is complex. The "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends are beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of precious metals. However, the recent increase is large, so investors can take profits on long positions and then wait and see [10]. - For steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coil, the medium - term weakness is difficult to change. Investors can focus on short - selling opportunities at high levels during rebounds [13]. - The short - term supply - demand pattern of iron ore supports prices, but it may weaken in the medium term. Investors can focus on buying opportunities during pull - backs [15]. - For coking coal and coke, the supply is slightly tight, and the demand is at a high level. The short - term trend is strong, and investors can focus on buying opportunities during pull - backs [16]. - Ferroalloys are in a state of short - term oversupply, but the cost is at a low level with limited downward space. Investors can consider long - position opportunities at low levels when the spot falls into the loss range again [18]. - For crude oil, due to US sanctions on Russia and other factors, there are long - position opportunities in the main contract [20]. - Fuel oil follows the rise of crude oil, and the supply in Singapore is suddenly tight. There are long - position opportunities in the main contract [22]. - Synthetic rubber is expected to fluctuate. The market should pay attention to the raw material market and supply changes [25]. - Natural rubber may follow the macro - led market. There are long - position opportunities [27]. - For PVC, the supply exceeds demand, but the downward space is limited. The market should focus on supply - side changes [30]. - The downward space of urea is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate narrowly [33]. - Short - term PX may fluctuate and adjust with support at the bottom. The market should pay attention to crude oil changes and macro - policies [36]. - Short - term PTA may fluctuate, and the market should pay attention to oil price changes [37]. - Short - term ethylene glycol may fluctuate with limited downward space. The market should pay attention to port inventory and import changes [39]. - Short - term short - fiber may fluctuate following the cost. The market should pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [40]. - Bottle chips are expected to fluctuate following the cost. The market should control risks [42]. - For lithium carbonate, in the pattern of strong supply and demand, the social inventory is gradually decreasing. The market should pay attention to the sustainability of consumption [43]. - For copper, there are long - position opportunities in the main contract of Shanghai copper due to the non - resumption of Indonesian copper mines and the upcoming Sino - US talks [44]. - Tin prices are expected to fluctuate strongly due to tight supply and certain demand resilience [47]. - Nickel is expected to fluctuate. The market should pay attention to the risk of significant improvement in macro - policies [49]. - For soybean meal, investors can consider long - position opportunities for call options in the support range after adjustment; for soybean oil, it is recommended to wait and see [52]. - For palm oil, it is recommended to wait and see [54]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, it is recommended to wait and see for rapeseed oil [56]. - Cotton prices are expected to be under pressure [58]. - For sugar, it is recommended to wait and see [61]. - For apples, it is recommended to wait and see [64]. - For live pigs, after short - term profit - taking on short positions, investors can wait and see and look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds [66]. - For eggs, investors can continue to hold short positions [69]. - For corn and corn starch, it is advisable to wait and see for corn, and corn starch may follow the corn market [70]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Treasury Bonds - The previous trading day, treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The central bank carried out 2125 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on October 23, with a net withdrawal of 235 billion yuan on the same day. The treasury bond futures are expected to have no trend - like market [5]. Stock Index - The previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed trends. The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak. The market sentiment has warmed up recently, and the increase is large with high volatility [8]. Precious Metals - The previous trading day, the gold main contract fell, and the silver main contract rose. The "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends and central bank gold - buying support the price of precious metals, but the recent increase is large [10]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - The previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rebounded slightly. In the medium term, the price of finished products is dominated by industrial supply - demand logic. The demand for rebar is still declining year - on - year, and the inventory pressure is obvious. The trend of hot - rolled coil is similar to that of rebar [13]. Iron Ore - The previous trading day, iron ore futures fluctuated and sorted out. The demand supports the price in the short term, but the supply - demand pattern may weaken in the medium term [15]. Coking Coal and Coke - The previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures rose significantly. The supply of coking coal is slightly tight, and the demand for coke is at a high level. The short - term trend is strong [16]. Ferroalloys - The previous trading day, the manganese - silicon and silicon - iron main contracts rose. The supply of ferroalloys is in a short - term oversupply state, but the cost is at a low level with limited downward space [18]. Crude Oil - The previous trading day, INE crude oil rose significantly due to US sanctions on Russia. The increase in US crude oil production is difficult, and the geopolitical situation is beneficial to the price of crude oil [20]. Fuel Oil - The previous trading day, fuel oil rose significantly following crude oil. The supply in Singapore is suddenly tight, which is beneficial to the price [22]. Synthetic Rubber - The previous trading day, the synthetic rubber main contract rose. The supply - side drives the market to stop falling and rebound, but the raw material side is bearish. It is expected to fluctuate [25]. Natural Rubber - The previous trading day, the natural rubber main contract rose. Affected by the Sino - US trade friction, it may follow the macro - led market [27]. PVC - The previous trading day, the PVC main contract rose. The supply exceeds demand, but the downward space is limited. The market should focus on export and supply reduction after the festival [30]. Urea - The previous trading day, the urea main contract rose. It is expected to fluctuate narrowly. The supply has recovered, and the demand has stabilized at a low level [33]. PX - The previous trading day, the PX main contract rose. The short - term supply - demand structure has improved, and the cost - side crude oil rebounds. It may fluctuate and adjust [36]. PTA - The previous trading day, the PTA main contract rose. The short - term processing fee has dropped significantly, and the cost - side crude oil has recovered. It may fluctuate [37]. Ethylene Glycol - The previous trading day, the ethylene glycol main contract rose. The supply increases, the inventory may decrease slightly, and the demand is expected to improve. It may fluctuate [39]. Short - Fiber - The previous trading day, the short - fiber main contract rose. The short - term supply is at a relatively high level, the demand improves, and it may fluctuate following the cost [40]. Bottle Chips - The previous trading day, the bottle - chip main contract rose. The load has slightly increased, the export growth has slowed down, and it may fluctuate following the cost [42]. Lithium Carbonate - The previous trading day, the lithium carbonate main contract rose. The supply and demand are both strong, and the social inventory is gradually decreasing [43]. Copper - The previous trading day, Shanghai copper rose significantly. The non - resumption of Indonesian copper mines and the upcoming Sino - US talks support the price [44]. Tin - The previous trading day, the tin main contract rose. The supply is tight, and the demand has certain resilience. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly [47]. Nickel - The previous trading day, the nickel main contract rose. The supply is in an oversupply state, and it is expected to fluctuate [49]. Soybean Meal and Soybean Oil - The previous trading day, the soybean meal main contract rose, and the soybean oil main contract fell. The market expects the export to improve. The supply of soybeans is relatively loose, and the cost provides certain support [52]. Palm Oil - The Malaysian palm oil closed higher. The domestic inventory is at a medium level in the past 7 years. It is recommended to wait and see [54]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The previous trading day, rapeseed closed higher. The inventory of rapeseed in China is at a low level, the rapeseed meal inventory is at a high level, and the rapeseed oil inventory is at a high - level. It is recommended to wait and see for rapeseed oil [56]. Cotton - The previous trading day, domestic Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated and rose. The new - season domestic cotton has a strong expectation of a bumper harvest, and the price is expected to be under pressure [58]. Sugar - The previous trading day, Zhengzhou sugar bottomed out and rebounded. The global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus, which restricts the price rebound. It is recommended to wait and see [61]. Apples - The previous trading day, domestic apple futures fluctuated at a high level. The late - maturing apples are of poor quality this year, and the opening price is higher than last year. It is recommended to wait and see [64]. Live Pigs - The previous day, the national average price of live pigs rose slightly. The supply in October is expected to increase, and it is recommended to take short - term profit on short positions and then wait and see [66]. Eggs - The previous trading day, the average price of eggs in the main producing and selling areas rose. The supply in October is expected to increase, and the consumption may be lower than expected. It is recommended to continue to hold short positions [69]. Corn and Corn Starch - The previous trading day, the corn and corn - starch main contracts rose. The new - season corn harvest is advancing, and the price is expected to be under pressure. Corn starch may follow the corn market [70].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum remains weak, and it is expected that the monetary policy will remain loose. It is expected that Treasury bond futures will have no trend - based market, and caution should be maintained [6]. - The domestic economic situation is stable, but the recovery momentum is not strong. The stock index market is expected to have increased volatility, and existing long positions can be profit - taken [8]. - The global trade and financial environment is complex. Precious metals have seen a large increase recently, and existing long positions can be closed for profit and then wait and see [10]. - The price of rebar and hot - rolled coils is expected to remain weak in the medium term. Investors can look for short - selling opportunities at high levels during rebounds [12]. - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore supports prices in the short term but may weaken in the medium term. Investors can look for buying opportunities during pullbacks [14]. - Coke and coking coal futures are expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term. Investors can look for buying opportunities during pullbacks [16]. - Ferroalloys are expected to continue to have an oversupply situation in the short term. After a decline, investors can consider long - position opportunities when the spot market falls into the loss range again [18]. - There are both positive and negative factors for crude oil. Investors can focus on long - position opportunities for the main crude oil contract [20]. - For fuel oil, investors can widen the price spread between high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils [24]. - Synthetic rubber is expected to oscillate [26]. - Natural rubber investors can focus on long - position opportunities [29]. - For PVC, investors should pay attention to changes on the supply side [32]. - Urea is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range this week [34]. - PX is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short term, with support at the bottom [36]. - PTA is expected to oscillate in the short term, and investors should be cautious and pay attention to oil price changes [38]. - Ethylene glycol is expected to oscillate in the short term, and investors should pay attention to port inventory and import changes [39]. - Short - fiber is expected to oscillate following costs in the short term, and investors should pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [41]. - Bottle chips are expected to oscillate following the cost side in the future, and investors should control risks [42]. - For lithium carbonate, pay attention to the sustainability of consumption [44]. - Investors can focus on long - position opportunities for the main Shanghai copper contract [46]. - Tin prices are expected to oscillate and strengthen [48]. - Nickel prices are expected to oscillate [50]. - Palm oil investors should wait and see for the time being [53]. - Cotton prices are expected to face pressure above [58]. - For sugar, investors should wait and see [61]. - For apples, investors should wait and see [63]. - For live pigs, consider short - term profit - taking on short positions and then wait and see, and consider reverse - arbitrage strategies for arbitrage [66]. - For eggs, consider holding short positions [68]. - For corn and starch, it is advisable to wait and see, and corn starch is expected to follow the corn market [72]. Summary by Related Catalogs Treasury Bonds - The previous trading day, most Treasury bond futures closed higher. The central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, with a net investment of 94.7 billion yuan. It is expected that there will be no trend - based market, and caution should be maintained [5][6]. Stock Index - The previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The Asset Management Association of China is about to release a draft for soliciting opinions on the rules for the performance comparison benchmarks of public funds. The market is expected to have increased volatility, and existing long positions can be profit - taken [8]. Precious Metals - The previous trading day, gold and silver futures prices declined. The global trade and financial environment is complex, which is beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. However, the recent increase in precious metals is large, and existing long positions can be closed for profit and then wait and see [10]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - The previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures showed weak oscillations. The price of rebar is expected to remain weak in the medium term, and investors can look for short - selling opportunities at high levels during rebounds [12]. Iron Ore - The previous trading day, iron ore futures oscillated and consolidated. The supply - demand pattern supports prices in the short term but may weaken in the medium term. Investors can look for buying opportunities during pullbacks [14]. Coke and Coking Coal - The previous trading day, coke and coking coal futures rebounded slightly. They are expected to continue to oscillate in the short term, and investors can look for buying opportunities during pullbacks [16]. Ferroalloys - The previous trading day, manganese - silicon and silicon - iron futures rose. Ferroalloys are expected to continue to have an oversupply situation in the short term. After a decline, investors can consider long - position opportunities when the spot market falls into the loss range again [18]. Crude Oil - The previous trading day, INE crude oil bottomed out and rebounded. There are both positive and negative factors for crude oil, and investors can focus on long - position opportunities for the main contract [20]. Fuel Oil - The previous trading day, fuel oil rose significantly. Singapore fuel oil sales declined in September, indicating weak consumption. Investors can widen the price spread between high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils [22][23]. Synthetic Rubber - The previous trading day, synthetic rubber rose. It is expected to oscillate, and investors should pay attention to changes in the raw material market and supply [25]. Natural Rubber - The previous trading day, natural rubber rose. Affected by Sino - US trade frictions, the overall sentiment of bulk commodities is bearish. Investors can focus on long - position opportunities [27]. PVC - The previous trading day, PVC rose. The supply - demand situation of PVC continues to be oversupplied, and investors should pay attention to changes on the supply side [30]. Urea - The previous trading day, urea rose. It is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range this week [33]. PX - The previous trading day, PX rose. The short - term supply - demand structure of PX changes little, and it is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short term, with support at the bottom [36]. PTA - The previous trading day, PTA rose. The short - term processing fee of PTA has declined significantly, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term. Investors should pay attention to oil price changes [37]. Ethylene Glycol - The previous trading day, ethylene glycol rose. The supply of ethylene glycol is increasing, and the demand improvement is limited. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and investors should pay attention to port inventory and import changes [39]. Short - Fiber - The previous trading day, short - fiber rose. The short - term supply of short - fiber remains at a relatively high level, and it is expected to oscillate following costs. Investors should pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [40]. Bottle Chips - The previous trading day, bottle chips rose. The export growth rate of bottle chips has slowed down, and it is expected to oscillate following the cost side [42]. Lithium Carbonate - The previous trading day, lithium carbonate rose. The supply and demand of lithium carbonate are both strong, and investors should pay attention to the sustainability of consumption [43]. Copper - The previous trading day, Shanghai copper bottomed out and rebounded. Sino - US tensions have eased, and investors can focus on long - position opportunities for the main contract [45]. Tin - The previous trading day, tin declined. The supply of tin is tight, and the demand has certain resilience. Tin prices are expected to oscillate and strengthen [47]. Nickel - The previous trading day, nickel rose slightly. The supply of nickel is in an oversupply situation, and nickel prices are expected to oscillate [50]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - No specific analysis content provided, only mentioned that palm oil fell for three consecutive days. Palm Oil - Palm oil fell for three consecutive days. There are many influencing factors, and investors should wait and see for the time being [53]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Similar to palm oil, there are many influencing factors, and investors should wait and see for the time being [55]. Cotton - The previous trading day, domestic cotton rose, and overseas cotton fell. Sino - US relations may improve, but cotton prices are expected to face pressure above [57]. Sugar - The previous trading day, domestic sugar rebounded after hitting the bottom, and overseas sugar declined. The Brazilian sugar production is expected to increase, and investors should wait and see [59]. Apples - The previous trading day, apple futures fluctuated at a high level. The quality of late - maturing apples this year is poor, and investors should wait and see [62]. Live Pigs - The previous trading day, the live pig futures contract rose. The supply in October is expected to increase. Consider short - term profit - taking on short positions and then wait and see, and consider reverse - arbitrage strategies for arbitrage [64]. Eggs - The previous trading day, egg prices were flat. The egg supply in October is expected to increase year - on - year, and consumption may fall short of expectations. Consider holding short positions [67]. Corn and Starch - The previous trading day, the corn futures contract fell, and the corn starch futures contract rose. The new - season corn harvest is advancing, and it is advisable to wait and see. Corn starch is expected to follow the corn market [69].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - In the fourth quarter, the production in the central - southern region of Brazil enters the seasonal production - reduction cycle, significantly reducing the global supply pressure. After the sharp decline of raw sugar, its valuation is moderately low, and the production cost in Brazil is around 15 - 16 cents. Although India and Thailand have strong production - increase expectations, their large - scale crushing will start around December, and the previous sharp decline of raw sugar has more or less reflected this expectation. The raw sugar price is significantly lower than the production costs of these two countries. [23] - Domestically, the expected production will increase slightly, large - scale crushing will start around mid - December, and the import volume in the fourth quarter may decline month - on - month. Overall, the supply pressure is not large. After the futures price drops to a relatively low level, it is significantly lower than the production cost, with strong support below, and the futures may have a phased rebound. [25] Section Summaries Brazil Enters Seasonal Production - Reduction Cycle - Brazil is one of the world's largest sugar producers and the largest sugar exporter. In the 2024/25 crushing season, the cumulative sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil was 4017 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 226 tons, and the sugar - making ratio was 48.14%. Different institutions have different forecasts for the 2025/26 crushing season sugar production in Brazil, with the focus on the impact of weather, sugar mill production strategies, and ethanol substitution effects. [2] - Starting from October, Brazil's sugar production enters the seasonal production - reduction cycle, greatly reducing the global supply pressure. The latest bi - weekly production data released by UNICA is slightly higher than market expectations. In the second half of September, 4085.5 tons of sugarcane were crushed in the central - southern region of Brazil, a year - on - year increase of 5.18%; sugar production was 313.7 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.76%. The cumulative sugar production was 3352.4 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.84%. [4][5] India and Thailand Expected to Increase Production but Not Yet Started Crushing - **India**: India's sugar production increase expectation is strong. In the 2024/25 crushing season, India's sugar production was about 2590 tons, far lower than expected. ISMA expects the sugar production in the 2025/26 crushing season to be 3490 tons. Considering the 400 - ton ethanol diversion, the actual sugar production will be around 3100 tons, an increase of about 500 tons compared to the previous year. Large - scale crushing will start around late December, and the production cost is around 18 - 19 cents per pound. [7][8] - **Thailand**: Thailand is a major global sugar - producing country and the second - largest sugar exporter. In the 2024/25 crushing season, Thailand's sugar production was 1014 tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.2%, ending the two - year consecutive decline. Different institutions predict that Thailand's sugar production in the 2025/26 crushing season will increase by 5% - 14%. [11] Domestic Supply and Demand Situation - **New - year domestic sugar production**: In the 2024/25 sugar - making period, domestic sugar production was 1116 tons, a year - on - year increase of 120 tons. Different institutions predict that the sugar production in the 2025/26 crushing season will be between 1120 and 1160 tons. Currently, Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang in the north have started production, with the estimated production at 70 - 75 tons. Large - scale crushing in the south will start in December, and the short - term domestic supply pressure is not large. [14] - **Fourth - quarter sugar imports decline month - on - month**: China's imported sugar is divided into in - quota and out - of - quota. In September 2025, China imported 55 tons of sugar, about 28 tons less than in August, a year - on - year increase of 35.8%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative imported sugar was 316 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.4%. Under the principle of annual total control and considering the decline in shipments from Brazil in September, the arrival volume of domestic sugar in the fourth quarter will decline month - on - month, which is conducive to reducing domestic supply pressure. [16] - **Syrup imports are controlled and the import volume drops significantly**: Since December 2024, the import declaration of Thai syrup and premixed powder has been suspended, and in March 2025, the import declaration of some sugar products (syrup and premixed powder) from Vietnam has also been suspended. In September 2025, the total import of syrup and white sugar premixed powder was 15.14 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.52 tons. From January to September 2025, the total import was 88.52 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 85.24 tons. [22]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs strengthening, and monetary policy is expected to remain loose. Treasury bond futures are expected to have no trend - based market, and caution is advised [6]. - Stock index futures are expected to have increased volatility. Existing long positions can be liquidated to take profits [9][10]. - Precious metals have risen significantly. After taking profits on long positions, investors can wait and see [11][12]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices are expected to remain weak in the medium term. Investors can look for short - selling opportunities at high levels during rebounds [14]. - Iron ore prices are supported in the short - term but may weaken in the medium - term. Investors can look for buying opportunities during pullbacks [16]. - Coking coal and coke futures are expected to continue to fluctuate in the short - term. Investors can look for buying opportunities during pullbacks [19]. - Ferroalloys may continue to have oversupply in the short - term. After a decline, investors can consider long positions at low levels when the spot market falls into a loss range [22]. - For crude oil, investors can focus on long - buying opportunities for the main contract [24]. - For fuel oil, investors can widen the spread between high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils [27]. - Synthetic rubber is expected to oscillate [28][29]. - Natural rubber investors can focus on long - buying opportunities [32]. - For PVC, investors should focus on supply - side changes [35]. - The downside space for urea is limited [38]. - PX may adjust weakly in a volatile manner in the short - term. Investors should control positions and pay attention to crude oil changes and macro - policy shifts [39]. - PTA is expected to oscillate in the short - term. Investors should be cautious, control risks, and pay attention to oil price changes [41]. - Ethylene glycol may operate weakly in a volatile manner in the short - term. Investors should pay attention to port inventory and import changes [42]. - Short - fiber is expected to oscillate following costs. Investors should control risks and pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [44]. - Bottle chips are expected to oscillate following the cost side. Investors should control risks [45]. - For lithium carbonate, attention should be paid to the sustainability of consumption [46]. - For copper, investors should temporarily wait and see [49]. - Tin prices are expected to oscillate strongly [50]. - Nickel prices are expected to oscillate [53]. - For soybean meal, after adjustment, investors can consider long positions in call options at the lower support range. For soybean oil, investors can temporarily wait and see [56]. - For palm oil, investors should temporarily wait and see [58]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, investors should temporarily wait and see [61]. - Cotton prices are expected to remain under pressure [65]. - For sugar, investors should wait and see [69]. - For apples, investors should wait and see [71]. - For live pigs, after short - term profit - taking on short positions, investors can wait and see and look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds. For arbitrage, a reverse arbitrage strategy can be considered [73]. - For eggs, short positions should be held [76]. - For corn and starch, it is advisable to wait and see [79]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Treasury Bonds - The previous trading day, treasury bond futures closed up across the board. The central bank conducted 159.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 6.85 billion yuan. The macro - economic recovery momentum needs strengthening, and treasury bond futures are expected to have no trend - based market [5][6]. Stock Index - The previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak. Asset valuations are low, and market sentiment has warmed up. Volatility is expected to increase, and existing long positions can be liquidated [8][9][10]. Precious Metals - The previous trading day, gold and silver futures rose. The global trade and financial environment is complex, and central bank gold purchases support prices. However, the recent increase has been large, and after taking profits on long positions, investors can wait and see [11][12]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - The previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures oscillated weakly. In the medium - term, the supply - demand relationship in the industry dominates. Rebar demand is declining year - on - year, and inventory pressure has increased. Prices are expected to remain weak, and investors can short - sell at high levels during rebounds [13][14]. Iron Ore - The previous trading day, iron ore futures oscillated and sorted. Demand supports prices in the short - term, but the supply - demand pattern may weaken in the medium - term. Investors can look for buying opportunities during pullbacks [16]. Coking Coal and Coke - The previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures significantly corrected. Coking coal supply pressure is not large, and coke prices have started to rise after two rounds of cuts. Futures are expected to continue to oscillate in the short - term, and investors can buy during pullbacks [18][19]. Ferroalloys - The previous trading day, manganese - silicon futures fell, and silicon - iron futures rose. Manganese ore supply has increased, and the cost of ferroalloys has risen. Production remains high, and demand is weak. There may be short - term oversupply, and investors can consider long positions at low levels [21][22]. Crude Oil - The previous trading day, INE crude oil hit a new low and then rebounded. The number of US oil and gas rigs has increased, and the global oil market may face an oversupply next year. However, there is support near the integer level, and investors can focus on long - buying opportunities [23][24]. Fuel Oil - The previous trading day, fuel oil hit a new low and then rebounded. The Asian fuel oil market is affected by sufficient supply. There are different views on the supply of high - sulfur fuel oil at the end of the year. Investors can widen the spread between high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils [25][27]. Synthetic Rubber - The previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures rose. The increase in short - and medium - term maintenance expectations has driven the market to stop falling and rebound. It is expected to oscillate, and investors should pay attention to raw material prices and supply changes [28][29]. Natural Rubber - The previous trading day, natural rubber futures rose. Affected by Sino - US trade frictions, the overall sentiment of bulk commodities is bearish. The supply in Thailand is affected by rainfall, and demand has recovered. Investors can focus on long - buying opportunities [30][32]. PVC - The previous trading day, PVC futures fell. The supply - demand imbalance persists, but the downward space may be limited. After the holiday, attention should be paid to exports and supply reduction [33][35]. Urea - The previous trading day, urea futures rose slightly. After prices fell below the lowest level at the beginning of the year, there was a small rebound. Supply has increased, and demand has improved slightly. The downward space is limited [36][38]. PX - The previous trading day, PX futures rose. The PX load has decreased, and imports have declined. The short - term supply - demand balance has loosened, and prices may adjust weakly in a volatile manner [39]. PTA - The previous trading day, PTA futures oscillated. Supply has increased, and demand has shown limited improvement. Processing fees have declined, and prices are expected to oscillate. Attention should be paid to oil prices [40][41]. Ethylene Glycol - The previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures fell. Supply has increased, inventory has accumulated, and demand support is limited. Prices are expected to oscillate weakly, and attention should be paid to port inventory and imports [42]. Short - Fiber - The previous trading day, short - fiber futures rose slightly. Supply remains at a relatively high level, demand is average, and cost support is weak. Prices are expected to oscillate following costs [43][44]. Bottle Chips - The previous trading day, bottle - chip futures oscillated. Processing fees have increased, supply has risen, and export growth has slowed. Prices are expected to oscillate following the cost side [45]. Lithium Carbonate - The previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures fell. Supply remains at a high level, and demand in the energy storage and power battery sectors has improved. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of consumption [46]. Copper - The previous trading day, Shanghai copper futures rose. Sino - US relations have eased, and the suspension of production of an Indonesian copper mine supports prices. Investors should temporarily wait and see [47][49]. Tin - The previous trading day, tin futures rose. The supply of tin ore is tight, and demand shows some resilience. Prices are expected to oscillate strongly [50]. Nickel - The previous trading day, nickel futures fell. Concerns about supply have resurfaced, but the market is still in an oversupply situation. Prices are expected to oscillate [53]. Soybean Meal and Soybean Oil - The previous trading day, soybean meal and soybean oil futures fell. The soybean crushing volume has recovered, and inventory pressure remains. For soybean meal, long positions in call options can be considered after adjustment; for soybean oil, wait and see [55][56]. Palm Oil - The previous trading day, Malaysian palm oil prices fell. EU policies have changed, and Chinese imports have decreased. Inventory has accumulated. Investors should temporarily wait and see [57][58]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed prices rose slightly. Chinese imports have changed, and inventory levels vary. Investors should temporarily wait and see [59][61]. Cotton - The previous trading day, domestic cotton futures rose. Sino - US relations may improve, which is beneficial to cotton trade. Domestic cotton production is expected to be high, and prices are expected to remain under pressure [62][64][65]. Sugar - The previous trading day, Zhengzhou sugar futures oscillated at a low level. Brazilian sugar production has slightly exceeded expectations, and the global sugar supply may be in surplus. Domestic northern regions have started sugar production. Investors should wait and see [66][68][69]. Apples - The previous trading day, domestic apple futures oscillated at a high level. This year's apple production has increased slightly, and the quality of late - maturing apples is poor. The opening price is higher than last year. Investors should wait and see [70][71]. Live Pigs - The previous trading day, the national average price of live pigs rose. Supply is expected to increase in the second half of the month. After short - term profit - taking on short positions, investors can wait and see and look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds [72][73]. Eggs - The previous trading day, egg prices fell. The inventory of laying hens is at a high level, and supply is increasing. Consumption may be lower than expected. Short positions should be held [74][76]. Corn and Starch - The previous trading day, corn and corn starch futures rose. The new - season corn harvest is under pressure, and inventory is increasing. Demand shows a slight increase. It is advisable to wait and see [77][78][79].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and monetary policy is expected to remain loose. Different commodities have different market trends and investment strategies due to their own supply - demand relationships and external factors [6][22]. Summary by Commodity Bonds - Last trading day, bond futures closed down across the board. The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and it is expected that there will be no trending bond futures market, so a certain degree of caution is required [5][6]. Stock Index Futures - Last trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. Although the domestic economy is stable, the recovery momentum is weak. However, domestic asset valuations are low, and the market sentiment has increased recently. It is expected that the market volatility will increase, and existing long positions can be gradually liquidated for profit [8]. Precious Metals - Last trading day, precious metal futures declined. The current global trade and financial environment is complex, which is beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. But the recent increase in precious metals has been large, and previous long positions can be appropriately closed for profit [10]. Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - Last trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures oscillated weakly. In the medium - term, the steel price is dominated by the industrial supply - demand logic. The demand for rebar is still declining year - on - year, and the inventory pressure has increased significantly. It is expected that the rebar price will remain weak in the medium - term, and hot - rolled coil may follow the same trend. Investors can focus on shorting opportunities at high levels during rebounds [12][13]. Iron Ore - Last trading day, iron ore futures slightly corrected. In the short - term, the supply - demand pattern still supports the price, but it may weaken in the medium - term. Technically, it may oscillate weakly in the short - term. Investors can focus on buying opportunities during corrections [15]. Coking Coal and Coke - Last trading day, coking coal and coke futures rose significantly. The supply pressure of coking coal is not large, and the demand for coke remains high. Technically, they may continue to oscillate in the short - term. Investors can focus on buying opportunities during corrections [17][18]. Ferroalloys - Last trading day, ferroalloy futures rose slightly. The current supply of ferroalloys is still in excess in the short - term, but the cost has increased at a low level. After a decline, investors can consider long positions at low levels when the spot market falls into a loss again [20][21]. Crude Oil - Last trading day, INE crude oil oscillated downward due to concerns about supply surplus. Although the Baker Hughes rig count has increased, the increase in US crude oil production is still challenging. Geopolitical risks have eased, which is negative for crude oil prices, but there is some support near the integer level. Investors can focus on long - buying opportunities for the main crude oil contract [22][23]. Fuel Oil - Last trading day, fuel oil slightly oscillated and remained near recent lows. The Singapore fuel oil sales declined in September, indicating weak consumption. The main fuel oil contract strategy is to widen the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils [24][26]. Synthetic Rubber - Last trading day, synthetic rubber futures declined. In the short - term, the butadiene rubber market will maintain a weak and wide - range oscillation. The market may stop falling and rebound due to supply factors. Investors should pay attention to the raw material market and supply changes [27]. Natural Rubber - Last trading day, natural rubber futures declined. Affected by the Sino - US trade friction, the overall sentiment of bulk commodities is bearish. The rubber price may follow the macro - led market. Investors can focus on long - buying opportunities [29][31]. PVC - Last trading day, PVC futures declined. The current oversupply situation of PVC continues, but the downward space may be limited. After the festival, investors should focus on exports and supply reduction. The main strategy is to pay attention to supply - side changes [32][34]. Urea - Last trading day, urea futures closed flat. Last week, the decline of urea stopped and the price rebounded slightly. It is expected to fluctuate narrowly this week. The supply has increased, and the demand has shown some improvement. The downward space is limited [35][37]. PX - Last trading day, PX futures declined. In the short - term, the supply - demand balance of PX has become looser. The PXN spread is relatively strong, but the cost is weak and the demand support is insufficient. PX may adjust weakly in an oscillatory manner. Investors should control their positions and pay attention to crude oil and macro - policy changes [38]. PTA - Last trading day, PTA futures declined. In the short - term, the PTA processing fee has dropped significantly, and the inventory is at a low level with some support at the bottom. However, the demand improvement is limited, and the external crude oil price is weakly adjusted. PTA may oscillate. Investors should be cautious, control risks, and pay attention to oil price changes [39][40]. Ethylene Glycol - Last trading day, ethylene glycol futures declined. Recently, the supply has increased, the inventory has continued to accumulate, the demand improvement is limited, and the cost of crude oil is weak. Ethylene glycol may oscillate weakly in the short - term. Investors should pay attention to port inventory and import changes [41]. Short - Fiber - Last trading day, short - fiber futures declined. In the short - term, the short - fiber supply remains at a relatively high level, the demand is average, the supply - demand contradiction is not significant, but the cost support is weak. It may oscillate following the cost. Investors should control risks and pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [42][43]. Bottle Chips - Last trading day, bottle - chip futures declined. Recently, the raw material price has been weakly adjusted in an oscillatory manner, the bottle - chip load has slightly increased, and the export growth has slowed down. It is expected to oscillate following the cost. Investors should control risks [44]. Lithium Carbonate - Last trading day, lithium carbonate futures declined. The supply of lithium carbonate is at a high level, and the demand from the energy storage and power battery sectors has improved. The social inventory is gradually being depleted. Investors should pay attention to the sustainability of consumption [45]. Copper - Last trading day, Shanghai copper oscillated upward due to the easing of Sino - US tensions. The dollar index is at a phased low, and copper prices are strongly adjusted at a high level. The reopening of the Indonesian copper mine has been delayed, and the Sino - US negotiation has improved again, which supports copper prices. The main Shanghai copper contract can be temporarily observed [46][48]. Tin - Last trading day, tin futures rose. The supply of tin is generally tight, and the demand shows some resilience. The refined tin inventory is further depleted. It is expected that the tin price will oscillate strongly [49]. Nickel - Last trading day, nickel futures rose. The market is worried about the supply due to the change in the RKAB approval in Indonesia. The mine price has weakened, and the high - grade nickel ore is still in short supply. The stainless - steel consumption is still weak, and the primary nickel is in an oversupply situation. It is expected that the nickel price will oscillate [51][52]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - Last trading day, soybean meal and soybean oil futures rose. The domestic soybean arrival volume is high, and the oil - mill crushing continues to be in loss. The Brazilian soybean arrival price has slightly declined, providing some cost support. New - season US soybeans are being harvested, which may bring some short - term pressure. After the adjustment of soybean meal, investors can consider long - call options in the support range. Soybean oil is slightly stronger than soybean meal, but the supply - demand is weak, so it is advisable to temporarily observe [54][55]. Palm Oil - The Malaysian palm oil market was closed. The Malaysian palm oil inventory in September was higher than expected. The export volume from October 1 - 20 increased compared with the previous month. The domestic palm oil inventory is at a medium level in the past 7 years. Investors can consider a long - biased strategy during corrections [56][57]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed futures closed down. The domestic rapeseed inventory has decreased, the rapeseed meal inventory has increased, and the rapeseed oil inventory has decreased. The main strategy for rapeseed oil is to consider a long - biased strategy during corrections [58][59]. Cotton - Last trading day, domestic Zhengzhou cotton oscillated upward due to the improvement of Sino - US relations. The new - season domestic cotton is expected to have a bumper harvest, and the cotton price is under pressure from hedging and harvesting. It is expected that the cotton price will remain under pressure [60][63]. Sugar - Last trading day, Zhengzhou sugar oscillated at a low level. The Brazilian sugar production slightly exceeded expectations. The global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus, which restricts the sugar price rebound. The domestic northern region has started sugar production, and the import volume in the fourth quarter is expected to decline. It is advisable to observe [64][66]. Apples - Last trading day, domestic apple futures rose significantly. The late - maturing apples are of poor quality this year, and the opening price is higher than last year. It is advisable to observe [67][68]. Pigs - Yesterday, the national average pig price rose. The supply is expected to increase in the second half of October. After short - term profit - taking of short positions, investors can temporarily observe and wait for short - selling opportunities on rebounds. The arbitrage strategy can consider reverse arbitrage [69][71]. Eggs - Last trading day, the average egg price in the main production and sales areas declined. The egg supply is expected to increase year - on - year in October, and the consumption may be lower than expected. Short positions can be held [72][73]. Corn and Corn Starch - Last trading day, corn and corn - starch futures rose. The new - season corn harvest is advancing, and the corn price may be under pressure. The corn - starch production and demand are weak, and the inventory is high. It may follow the corn market. It is advisable to observe [74][76].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - data in September were mixed, and the recovery momentum needed to be strengthened. The domestic economic recovery couldn't be achieved overnight, and the economy showed a state of having a bottom but lacking upward momentum. Macroeconomic policies should increase support to boost market confidence. "Promoting domestic demand and combating involution" would be important long - term policy focuses. The financial market was in a state of "weak reality, strong expectation", and in 2025, the macro - economy and asset prices were expected to continue the upward - repair trend [3][38]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Manufacturing PMI Rebounded Month - on - Month but Remained Below the Threshold - In September, the manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. Large - scale enterprises' PMI was 51.0%, up 0.2 percentage points; medium - sized enterprises' PMI was 48.8%, down 0.1 percentage points; small - sized enterprises' PMI was 48.2%, up 1.6 percentage points. Among the 5 sub - indexes, the production index and supplier delivery time index were above the threshold, while the new order index, raw material inventory index, and employment index were below it [4]. - The non - manufacturing business activity index in September was 50.0%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. The construction industry's business activity index was 49.3%, up 0.2 percentage points, and the service industry's was 50.1%, down 0.4 percentage points. Overall, the manufacturing was still below the threshold, indicating low prosperity, significant demand contraction, and insufficient economic recovery momentum [7]. 2. In September, CPI Declined 0.3% Year - on - Year and PPI Fell 2.9% Year - on - Year, Both Showing Improvement - In September 2025, the national CPI decreased 0.3% year - on - year. The average CPI from January to September was 0.1% lower than the same period last year. The CPI increased 0.1% month - on - month. Food prices decreased 4.4% year - on - year and increased 0.7% month - on - month [8][9]. - In September, the national PPI decreased 2.3% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month, and remained flat month - on - month. The average PPI from January to September was 2.8% lower than the same period last year. Industries such as coal, ferrous metals, and petrochemicals had large year - on - year declines, dragging down the PPI [11]. 3. In September, Imports and Exports Maintained High Growth Rates - In September, China's total import and export volume was $566.68 billion, a year - on - year increase of 7.9%. Exports were $328.57 billion, up 8.3% year - on - year, and imports were $238.12 billion, up 7.4% year - on - year. The trade surplus was $90.45 billion, an increase of $8.69 billion compared to the same period last year [13]. - In terms of countries, in September, China's exports to the US were $34.308 billion, with a year - on - year growth rate of - 16.1%; exports to the EU were $49.22 billion, with a growth rate of 7.6%; exports to ASEAN countries were $58.235 billion, up 16.9% year - on - year; and exports to Japan were $13.435 billion, with a year - on - year growth rate of 6.6%. Exports to ASEAN were gradually replacing those to the US [15]. - Since the second quarter, exports have been stronger than expected, showing strong resilience. In 2025, exports were likely to remain strong. The real risk for China's foreign trade was the potential decline in demand due to the increased risk of a US economic recession and the slowdown of the global economy [16]. 4. Credit Demand was Weak, and the Growth Rates of M1 and M2 Further Increased - At the end of September 2025, the stock of social financing scale was 437.08 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.7%. The balance of RMB loans to the real economy was 267.03 trillion yuan, up 6.4% year - on - year. The balance of foreign - currency loans to the real economy was 1.18 trillion yuan, down 18% year - on - year [18]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 30.09 trillion yuan, 4.42 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. The increase in RMB loans to the real economy was 14.54 trillion yuan, 851.2 billion yuan less than the same period last year [18]. - In terms of residents' credit in September, short - term loans increased by 142.1 billion yuan, 127.9 billion yuan less than the same period last year; medium - and long - term loans increased by 250 billion yuan, 20 billion yuan more than the same period last year. In terms of enterprises' credit, short - term loans increased by 710 billion yuan, 250 billion yuan more than the same period last year; medium - and long - term loans increased by 910 billion yuan, 50 billion yuan less than the same period last year; bill financing decreased by 402.6 billion yuan, 471.2 billion yuan less than the same period last year [19][21]. - At the end of September, the balance of broad - money (M2) was 335.38 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.4%. The balance of narrow - money (M1) was 113.15 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7.2%. The M1 - M2 gap narrowed to - 1.2%, indicating an improvement in macro - liquidity [22]. 5. Industrial Production Accelerated, while Consumption and Investment Growth Rates Continued to Decline - In September, the value - added of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 6.5% year - on - year, and 0.64% month - on - month. From January to September, it increased by 6.2% year - on - year [25]. - In September, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 4,197.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.0%. From January to September, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 36,587.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.5%. The consumption growth rate further declined in September, affected by policies and subsidy withdrawal, as well as the drop in oil prices [25][26]. - From January to September 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 37,153.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5%. Private fixed - asset investment decreased by 3.1% year - on - year. The growth rates of manufacturing investment, infrastructure investment, and real - estate development investment continued to decline [28]. 6. The Growth Rate of Real - Estate Sales Continued to Decline and was Moving Towards Stabilization - From January to September, the sales area of newly - built commercial housing was 658.35 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 5.5%; the sales volume was 6,304 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 7.9%. In September, the growth rates of real - estate sales volume and area continued to decline, and the real - estate market was still in the adjustment stage [30]. - From January to September, the construction area of real - estate development enterprises was 6.4858 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.4%. The new - construction area was 453.99 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 18.9%. The completed area was 311.29 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 15.3% [32]. - In September, the real - estate market continued the downward trend since the second and third quarters. However, the year - on - year decline in the sales area and volume of commercial housing was narrowing, and the inventory - reduction effect was emerging. The real - estate market was moving towards stabilization. The year - on - year decline in the sales area and volume of commercial housing would further narrow as the base decreased [34]. - At the end of September, the unsold area of commercial housing was 759.28 million square meters, 2.41 million square meters less than at the end of August. The real - estate development climate index in September was 92.78, showing a slight decline month - on - month. There was still room for further strengthening of real - estate policies, and the "market bottom" of this real - estate downward cycle was emerging. The first half of 2026 was expected to be a critical period for the real - estate market to stabilize [35][36][37].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Macroeconomic Outlook**: The current macro - data remains stable, but the macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened. Monetary policy is expected to remain loose. The market risk preference has significantly increased [6]. - **Overall Market**: Different sectors show diverse trends. Some sectors are expected to have no clear trend, some may experience increased volatility, and others may face supply - demand imbalances affecting their prices. 3. Summary by Commodity Bonds - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, most Treasury bond futures closed down. The 30 - year and 10 - year main contracts fell by 0.14% and 0.06% respectively [5]. - **Outlook**: It is expected that there will be no trend - based market for Treasury bond futures, and caution should be maintained [6][7]. Stock Index Futures - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed results. The CSI 300 and SSE 50 futures rose, while the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 futures fell [8]. - **Outlook**: The market is expected to have increased volatility. Existing long positions can be gradually closed to take profits [10][11]. Precious Metals - **Performance**: Gold and silver futures rose on the previous trading day, with gold up 0.63% and silver up 0.43% [12]. - **Outlook**: The rise has been significant, and previous long positions can be appropriately closed for profit - taking [13][14]. Steel Products (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil) - **Performance**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fluctuated weakly on the previous trading day [15]. - **Outlook**: The mid - term weakness of rebar prices may be difficult to change. The trend of hot - rolled coils may be similar. Investors can consider short - selling at high levels during rebounds, with attention to position management [16]. Iron Ore - **Performance**: Iron ore futures slightly corrected on the previous trading day [18]. - **Outlook**: The short - term supply - demand pattern supports prices, but it may weaken in the medium term. Investors can consider buying on dips, with light positions [18][19]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Performance**: Coking coal and coke futures rebounded significantly on the previous trading day [20]. - **Outlook**: They may continue to fluctuate in the short term. Investors can consider buying on dips, with light positions [21][22]. Ferroalloys - **Performance**: Manganese silicon futures fell 0.21%, and silicon iron futures rose 1.60% on the previous trading day [23]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, supply may remain in excess. After a decline, investors can consider long positions when the spot market falls into a loss zone [24]. Crude Oil - **Performance**: INE crude oil slightly rebounded on the previous trading day [25]. - **Outlook**: The CFTC data shows that US fund managers are bearish on the future of crude oil. The main contract should be temporarily observed [26][27]. Fuel Oil - **Performance**: Fuel oil fluctuated upward on the previous trading day, moving away from recent lows [28]. - **Outlook**: Singapore's fuel oil sales decreased in September, but the war in Ukraine supports prices. Investors can look for long - trading opportunities [29][30]. Synthetic Rubber - **Performance**: Synthetic rubber futures rose 3.05% on the previous trading day [31]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to operate in a fluctuating manner [32]. Natural Rubber - **Performance**: Natural rubber futures rose on the previous trading day, with the main contract up 0.27% and 20 - grade rubber up 1.90% [33]. - **Outlook**: After the holiday, rubber prices are expected to stabilize and rebound. Investors can look for long - trading opportunities [34][35]. PVC - **Performance**: PVC futures rose 1% on the previous trading day [36]. - **Outlook**: The current supply - demand imbalance persists, but the downward space may be limited. Attention should be paid to changes on the supply side [36][39]. Urea - **Performance**: Urea futures closed flat on the previous trading day [40]. - **Outlook**: The downward space is limited. Attention should be paid to exports and cost changes [40][42]. PX - **Performance**: PX futures rose 1.27% on the previous trading day [43]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the supply - demand balance may loosen, and it may adjust weakly in a fluctuating manner. Attention should be paid to the PXN spread and macro - policies [43]. PTA - **Performance**: PTA futures rose 1% on the previous trading day [44]. - **Outlook**: It may operate in a fluctuating manner in the short term. Caution should be exercised, and attention should be paid to oil prices [45]. Ethylene Glycol - **Performance**: Ethylene glycol futures rose 1.01% on the previous trading day [46]. - **Outlook**: It may operate weakly in a fluctuating manner in the short term. Attention should be paid to port inventory and imports [46]. Short - Fiber - **Performance**: Short - fiber futures rose 0.86% on the previous trading day [47]. - **Outlook**: It may operate following cost fluctuations in the short term. Attention should be paid to costs and macro - policies [48][49]. Bottle Chips - **Performance**: Bottle - chip futures rose 0.9% on the previous trading day [50]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to operate following cost fluctuations. Risk control is necessary [50]. Lithium Carbonate - **Performance**: Lithium carbonate futures rose 2.52% on the previous trading day [51]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, it may return to a supply - demand surplus situation, and prices may weaken. Attention should be paid to consumption sustainability [51]. Copper - **Performance**: Shanghai copper futures fluctuated downward on the previous trading day [53]. - **Outlook**: The price is still affected by the复产 of Indonesian copper mines. The main contract should be temporarily observed [54][55]. Tin - **Performance**: Tin futures rose 0.53% on the previous trading day [56]. - **Outlook**: It may operate strongly in a fluctuating manner due to tight supply and certain demand support [56]. Nickel - **Performance**: Nickel futures fell 0.11% on the previous trading day [58]. - **Outlook**: It may operate in a fluctuating manner. The market is in an oversupply situation, with high - grade nickel ore still in short supply [59]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - **Performance**: Soybean meal futures fell 0.24%, and soybean oil futures rose 0.15% on the previous trading day [61]. - **Outlook**: After adjustment, investors can consider call options on soybean meal. Soybean oil should be temporarily observed due to supply pressure [62][63]. Palm Oil - **Performance**: Malaysian palm oil futures closed higher on the previous trading day [64]. - **Outlook**: A callback - buying strategy can be considered [64]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - **Performance**: Canadian rapeseed futures fell. In the domestic market, rapeseed meal and oil prices showed certain changes [65]. - **Outlook**: A callback - buying strategy can be considered for rapeseed oil [67]. Cotton - **Performance**: Domestic Zhengzhou cotton futures oscillated, and overseas cotton futures rebounded after hitting a low on the previous trading day [68]. - **Outlook**: Cotton prices are expected to remain under pressure due to factors such as trade frictions and harvest pressure [70][71]. Sugar - **Performance**: Zhengzhou sugar futures oscillated at a low level, and overseas sugar futures rebounded slightly on the previous trading day [72]. - **Outlook**: The market should be observed. The global sugar supply may be in surplus, and the domestic market has new sugar supply [74][75]. Apples - **Performance**: Domestic apple futures slightly fell on the previous trading day [76]. - **Outlook**: The market should be observed. The opening price of late - maturing apples is likely to be higher than last year [76][77]. Live Pigs - **Performance**: The national average price of live pigs rose, and the main futures contract fell 3.21% on the previous trading day [78][79]. - **Outlook**: The supply is expected to increase in the second half of the month. Existing short positions can be held, and short - selling on rebounds can be considered [79]. Eggs - **Performance**: The average price of eggs in the main production and sales areas rose, and the main futures contract fell 1.05% on the previous trading day [80][81]. - **Outlook**: The supply may increase in October, and consumption may be lower than expected. Existing short positions can be held, and short - selling on rebounds can be considered [81]. Corn and Corn Starch - **Performance**: Corn futures rose 0.67%, and corn starch futures fell 0.59% on the previous trading day [82]. - **Outlook**: Corn prices may continue to be under pressure. Corn starch may follow the corn market. Observation is recommended [83][84][85]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs strengthening, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. Treasury bond futures are expected to have no trend - based market, so a cautious approach is recommended [6]. - The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak, and corporate profit growth is at a low level. However, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still promising, and existing long positions can be held [9]. - The long - term bullish trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and investors can consider going long on gold futures [12]. - The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils are affected by policies in the short term and are expected to return to the supply - demand logic in the medium term. Investors can pay attention to buying opportunities during pullbacks [15]. - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore is strong in the short term but may weaken in the medium term. Investors can pay attention to buying opportunities during pullbacks [17]. - The prices of coking coal and coke have positive support, but the futures prices have already reflected the improvement in fundamentals to a large extent. Investors can pay attention to buying opportunities during pullbacks [20]. - The short - term demand for ferroalloys has a slight increase, but the supply is still in excess. Investors can consider long positions at low levels after a decline [24]. - Crude oil has rebounded after bottom - building at a low level. Investors can focus on going long on the main crude oil contract [26][27]. - The sales volume of fuel oil in the Fujairah Oil Industrial Area is at a high level, and the inventory situation is mixed. Investors can short the spread between high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil on the main fuel oil contract [28][29]. - For synthetic rubber, wait for the market to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [30][31]. - For natural rubber, pay attention to buying opportunities after a pullback [32][33]. - PVC is expected to continue bottom - oscillating [34][35]. - Urea is expected to be volatile in the short term and bullish in the medium term [37]. - PX is expected to be in a short - term oscillating adjustment, and investors can consider range - bound operations [38]. - PTA is expected to oscillate in the short term, and investors can participate in the range at low levels [39][40]. - Ethylene glycol is recommended for range - bound participation, and investors should pay attention to port inventory and import changes [41]. - Short - fiber is expected to follow the cost to oscillate, and investors should pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [42][43]. - Bottle - chip is expected to follow the cost to oscillate, and investors should control risks [44]. - Soda ash is expected to be lightly stable and oscillating in the short term, and the market will return to the fundamental - led logic [45]. - Glass is recommended to go short at high levels in the short term, and investors should pay attention to position control [47]. - Caustic soda is expected to have a positive supply - demand difference next week, and the market sentiment is good [48][49]. - Pulp is expected to oscillate and adjust, and investors should pay attention to the implementation of macro - policies and marginal demand signals [50][51]. - Lithium carbonate's trading logic has shifted, and investors should pay attention to the key time in late September. Non - entered investors should operate with a light position [52]. - Copper is in an oscillating state, and the Shanghai copper main contract should be temporarily observed [54][55]. - Tin is expected to oscillate, with tight supply at the mine end and weak consumption [57]. - Nickel is expected to oscillate, with an over - supply pattern of primary nickel [58]. - For soybean meal, consider long positions at the support level after adjustment; for soybean oil, consider taking profits on long positions at high levels [59][60]. - For palm oil, consider adding some long positions [63]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, consider adding a small amount of long positions [65]. - Cotton is expected to be strong in price in the short term and oscillate in a range [67][69]. - Sugar is recommended to be observed, with high foreign production expectations and more imports before October in China [72]. - Apple is recommended to be observed, with a slight increase in production expected [74][75]. - For live pigs, consider a reverse - spread strategy [78]. - Eggs are recommended to be observed, with supply pressure expected to ease in October [80][81]. - Corn is recommended to be observed, and corn starch follows the corn market [83][84]. - Logs are expected to oscillate at high levels [86]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Treasury Bonds - On the previous trading day, most treasury bond futures closed higher. The central bank conducted 253 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 124.3 billion yuan. The use of stablecoins may increase the demand for US Treasury bonds [5]. - The current macro - data is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak. The yield of treasury bonds is at a relatively low level, and it is expected that there will be no trend - based market [6]. Stock Index - On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance [8]. - The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak. However, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still promising, and existing long positions can be held [9]. Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, gold and silver futures rose. The manufacturing and service PMIs in the Eurozone and Germany in August were better than expected [11]. - The long - term bullish trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and investors can consider going long on gold futures [12]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures oscillated. The spot prices of billets and steel products were reported. Policy changes are the main factor in the short term, and the prices are expected to return to the supply - demand logic in the medium term [14][15]. - Investors can pay attention to buying opportunities during pullbacks and control positions [15]. Iron Ore - On the previous trading day, iron ore futures rebounded slightly. Policy is the main factor, and the price follows coking coal. The supply - demand pattern is strong in the short term but may weaken in the medium term [17]. - Investors can pay attention to buying opportunities during pullbacks and control positions [17]. Coking Coal and Coke - On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures continued to fall. The supply is affected by policies, and the futures prices have reflected the improvement in fundamentals to a large extent [20]. - Investors can pay attention to buying opportunities during pullbacks and control positions [20]. Ferroalloys - On the previous trading day, manganese - silicon and silicon - iron futures showed different trends. The supply of manganese ore decreased, and the cost of ferroalloys increased. The production of ferroalloys increased, but the demand recovery was weak [22]. - The short - term supply may be in excess, and investors can consider long positions at low levels after a decline [24]. Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, INE crude oil oscillated upward. The US crude oil inventory decreased significantly, and the sanctions on Russia and India supported the price [25][26]. - Investors can focus on going long on the main crude oil contract [27]. Fuel Oil - On the previous trading day, fuel oil oscillated and rose. The sales volume of fuel oil in the Fujairah Oil Industrial Area increased, but the inventory situation in different regions was mixed [28]. - Investors can short the spread between high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil on the main fuel oil contract [29]. Synthetic Rubber - On the previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures rose. The supply decreased due to losses, and the market sentiment was positive. Wait for the market to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [30][31]. Natural Rubber - On the previous trading day, natural rubber futures rose. The supply was affected by rainfall, and the cost support was strong. The demand increased slightly, and the inventory decreased [32]. - Pay attention to buying opportunities after a pullback [33]. PVC - On the previous trading day, PVC futures rose slightly. The supply exceeded demand, and the price continued to oscillate at the bottom. The supply increased, the demand decreased, and the profit improved [34]. - PVC is expected to continue bottom - oscillating [35]. Urea - On the previous trading day, urea futures fell. The market expected relaxed export restrictions to India. The supply was at a high level, and the demand for compound fertilizers increased [36][37]. - Urea is expected to be volatile in the short term and bullish in the medium term [37]. PX - On the previous trading day, PX futures rose. The supply - demand was balanced in the short term, and the PXN spread was firm, but the cost support from crude oil was insufficient [38]. - PX is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short term, and investors can consider range - bound operations [38]. PTA - On the previous trading day, PTA futures rose. The supply decreased, the demand improved, but the cost support from crude oil was weak, and the processing fee was under pressure [39][40]. - PTA is expected to oscillate in the short term, and investors can participate in the range at low levels [40]. Ethylene Glycol - On the previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures rose. The overall supply increased, but the overseas supply decreased. The demand improved slightly [41]. - Ethylene glycol is recommended for range - bound participation, and investors should pay attention to port inventory and import changes [41]. Short - Fiber - On the previous trading day, short - fiber futures rose. The supply was at a relatively high level, and the demand improved slightly. It is expected to follow the cost to oscillate [42][43]. Bottle - Chip - On the previous trading day, bottle - chip futures rose. The supply decreased due to more maintenance, and the demand for soft drinks increased. It is expected to follow the cost to oscillate [44]. Soda Ash - On the previous trading day, soda ash futures fell. The supply was at a high level, and the inventory increased slightly. It is expected to be lightly stable and oscillate in the short term [45]. Glass - On the previous trading day, glass futures fell. The production line was stable, the inventory decreased slowly, and the demand was weak. It is recommended to go short at high levels in the short term [47]. Caustic Soda - On the previous trading day, caustic soda futures rose. The supply increased slightly, and the demand was stable. The price was supported by changes in supply and demand [48][49]. Pulp - On the previous trading day, pulp futures fell. The supply was expected to shrink, but the demand improvement was uncertain, and the inventory was at a high level. It is expected to oscillate and adjust [50][51]. Lithium Carbonate - On the previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures fell. The trading logic has shifted, and the price bottom support has increased, but the supply - demand surplus pattern remains. Non - entered investors should operate with a light position [52]. Copper - On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper fluctuated. The spot market was average, and the price was affected by inventory and market sentiment. The Shanghai copper main contract should be temporarily observed [54][55]. Tin - On the previous trading day, Shanghai tin oscillated. The supply at the mine end was tight, and the consumption was weak. It is expected to oscillate [57]. Nickel - On the previous trading day, Shanghai nickel fell. The supply of primary nickel was in an over - supply pattern, and the price was under pressure. It is expected to oscillate [58]. Soybean Meal and Soybean Oil - On the previous trading day, soybean meal and soybean oil futures fell. The USDA lowered the US soybean planting area, and the domestic inventory increased. For soybean meal, consider long positions at the support level after adjustment; for soybean oil, consider taking profits on long positions at high levels [59][60]. Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil fell. The Indonesian palm oil inventory decreased, and the export data was strong. Consider adding some long positions [61][63]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed prices rose. The domestic inventory situation of rapeseed, rapeseed meal, and rapeseed oil was different. Consider adding a small amount of long positions [64][65]. Cotton - The domestic and foreign cotton markets showed different trends. The US cotton supply decreased, and the domestic inventory decreased. It is expected to be strong in price in the short term and oscillate in a range [66][69]. Sugar - The domestic sugar futures oscillated, and the foreign sugar futures fell. The Brazilian sugar production decreased slightly, and the Indian sugar production was expected to increase. It is recommended to be observed [71][72]. Apple - Apple futures rose slightly. The expected production reduction was disproved, and the production is expected to increase slightly. It is recommended to be observed [74][75]. Live Pigs - The price of live pigs rose slightly. The supply increased, and the demand improved slightly. Consider a reverse - spread strategy [77][78]. Eggs - Egg futures fell. The supply increased, and the demand was lower than expected. It is recommended to be observed, with supply pressure expected to ease in October [79][81]. Corn and Corn Starch - Corn futures were flat, and corn starch futures rose. The weather was normal, and the new - season corn was expected to have a good harvest. The supply - demand of corn was balanced, and corn starch followed the corn market [82][84]. Logs - Log futures fell slightly. The spot price was strong, the demand was better than the supply, and the export increased. It is expected to oscillate at high levels [85][86].

Report Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The存栏量 of breeding sows is expected to decline in the fourth quarter, while the supply of market hogs is predicted to increase significantly year-on-year, and the slaughter volume of designated slaughter enterprises may remain at a record high. The price of live pigs may experience a downward trend with short-term rebounds in October and November [2][4][12][18]. Summary by Directory 1. Breeding Sow Inventory - **Interpretation**: From July to August, the average inventory of breeding sows was 40.4 million, a year-on-year increase of 0.04%. At the end of August 2025, the inventory was 40.38 million, up 0.05% year-on-year, 3.5% higher than the upper limit of the normal reserve. Although there was a slight decline during the third quarter, the overall decline was limited due to the expansion of self - breeding in some medium - sized fattening farms. The MSY of breeding sows has been increasing, but the growth rate may slow down in the fourth quarter of 2025 [1]. - **Outlook**: In the fourth quarter, the profit from selling piglets may further shrink, and the inventory of breeding sows is likely to decline month - on - month [2]. 2. National Newborn Piglet Data - **Interpretation**: From February to June 2025, the number of newborn piglets increased month - on - month, with month - on - month increases of 0.60%, 0.60%, 1.80%, 0.50%, and 1% respectively. From February to July, the number increased by 9.3% year - on - year, indicating that the market hog supply from August to December may increase [4]. - **Outlook**: In the fourth quarter, the available market hog supply is expected to increase significantly year - on - year, mainly concentrated in October and November [4]. 3. Hog Slaughter and Inventory - **Interpretation**: In the first half of 2025, the cumulative hog slaughter was 367 million, a year - on - year increase of 0.62%. At the end of the second quarter, the hog inventory was 424 million, up 2.20% year - on - year. The concentrated secondary fattening in March - April 2025 may have diverted some of the second - quarter slaughter to the third quarter [5]. - **Outlook**: In the fourth quarter, the slaughter volume is expected to increase slightly year - on - year, and the inventory is likely to continue to increase year - on - year [6][7]. 4. Slaughter Volume of Designated Slaughter Enterprises - **Interpretation**: From January to August 2025, the slaughter volume of large - scale designated hog slaughter enterprises was 248.71 million, a year - on - year increase of 18.98%. In August, it was 33.5 million, up 29.60% year - on - year. The expansion of the share of large - scale enterprises and the increase in the utilization rate of a leading enterprise's slaughter capacity have significantly affected the national slaughter volume. The terminal demand in the third quarter was lower than that in 2024 [12]. - **Outlook**: In the fourth quarter, the slaughter volume of designated slaughter enterprises may remain at a record high, and the year - on - year monthly increase may widen [12]. 5. Average Weight at the Slaughter End - **Interpretation**: In the third quarter of 2025, the average post - slaughter weight of hogs in 16 provincial - level regions was about 89.16 kg/head, a year - on - year decrease of 2.39%. It showed a trend of first decreasing and then increasing, with the weight increasing passively in September [15]. - **Outlook**: In October - November, the overall weight may increase slightly, and the average post - slaughter weight may be raised periodically [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - For most commodities, the market shows various trends and risks, and different trading strategies are recommended according to the specific situation of each commodity [5][7][9] - Some commodities have experienced significant price changes, and investors are advised to take corresponding profit - taking or risk - control measures [8][10] 3. Summary by Commodity Treasury Bonds - Previous trading day: Treasury bond futures opened low and closed higher across the board, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts rising 0.34%, 0.11%, 0.10%, and 0.02% respectively [5] - Market situation: The central bank conducted 91 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 91 billion yuan. The IMF slightly raised the global economic growth forecast for this year. The macro - economy has stable data but weak recovery momentum, and monetary policy is expected to remain loose [5][6] - Strategy: It is expected that there will be no trend - based market, and caution should be maintained [6] Stock Index Futures - Previous trading day: Stock index futures showed mixed performance, with the main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM falling by 1.14%, 0.09%, 2.93%, and 2.16% respectively [7] - Market situation: The domestic economy is stable but has weak recovery momentum, and corporate profit growth is at a low level. However, domestic asset valuations are low, and the economy has sufficient resilience. Market sentiment has warmed up, and incremental funds have entered the market [7] - Strategy: It is expected that volatility will increase, and existing long positions can be gradually liquidated for profit [8] Precious Metals - Previous trading day: The closing price of the gold main contract was 938.98, up 1.23%, and the night - session closing price was 949.76; the closing price of the silver main contract was 11,533, up 0.02%, and the night - session closing price was 11,732 [9] - Market situation: The global trade and financial environment is complex. The trends of "anti - globalization" and "de - dollarization" are beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. Central bank gold purchases and the expected Fed rate cuts also support precious metals. However, the recent increase has been significant [9] - Strategy: Previous long positions can be appropriately liquidated for profit [10] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - Previous trading day: Rebar and hot - rolled coil futures oscillated weakly. The spot price of Tangshan billet was 2,940 yuan/ton, Shanghai rebar was 3,050 - 3,220 yuan/ton, and Shanghai hot - rolled coils were 3,270 - 3,290 yuan/ton [11] - Market situation: In the medium term, prices are determined by supply - demand. Rebar demand is declining year - on - year, but there is a slight improvement in the traditional peak season. Supply capacity is still excessive, and recent output has declined. Rebar inventory is higher than last year. The fundamentals of hot - rolled coils are similar to rebar [11][12] - Strategy: The medium - term weakness of rebar prices is difficult to change. Investors can consider shorting at high levels during rebounds and pay attention to position management [12] Iron Ore - Previous trading day: Iron ore futures corrected significantly. The spot price of PB fines was 778 yuan/ton, and that of Super Special fines was 700 yuan/ton [14] - Market situation: National pig iron production supports demand. Supply has increased since the second quarter, but imports and domestic production are still down year - on - year. Port inventory is lower than last year. In the short term, supply - demand supports prices, but may weaken in the medium term [14] - Strategy: Investors can consider buying on dips and pay attention to position management [14] Coking Coal and Coke - Previous trading day: Coking coal and coke futures oscillated weakly. Coking coal supply pressure is not significant, and demand shows some improvement. Coke prices have been adjusted, and the first - round increase is gradually taking effect [16][17] - Market situation: Coking coal production is normal, and demand for replenishment exists. Coke production and demand are relatively stable [16][17] - Strategy: Investors can consider buying on dips and pay attention to position management [17] Ferroalloys - Previous trading day: The manganese - silicon main contract fell 0.14% to 5,738 yuan/ton, and the silicon - iron main contract fell 0.44% to 5,378 yuan/ton. Spot prices also declined [19] - Market situation: Manganese ore shipments from Gabon decreased, and Australian ore supply increased. Port manganese ore inventory decreased slightly, and prices stabilized at a low level. Ferroalloy production costs increased, but demand was weak, and supply was excessive in the short term [19][20] - Strategy: In the short term, supply may remain excessive. After a decline, investors can consider long positions when the spot market falls into a loss - making range [20] Crude Oil - Previous trading day: INE crude oil oscillated downward due to the expected signing of a Middle - East peace agreement [21] - Market situation: CFTC data shows that US fund managers are bearish on crude oil. US oil and gas rig counts decreased. The Russia - Ukraine war continues to support prices, but the expected peace agreement in the Middle East is negative for prices [21][22] - Strategy: Temporarily hold off on trading the main crude oil contract [23] Fuel Oil - Previous trading day: Fuel oil oscillated downward following crude oil. The spot spreads of Asian ultra - low - sulfur and high - sulfur fuel oils declined. Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil inventory is high, and there is a shortage of medium - sulfur fuel oil [24] - Market situation: The Russia - Ukraine war supports prices, but the easing of Middle - East geopolitical risks leads to a decline in crude oil and fuel oil [24] - Strategy: Expand the price spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils for the main fuel oil contract [25] Synthetic Rubber - Previous trading day: The synthetic rubber main contract fell 1.42%. The mainstream price in Shandong decreased to 11,000 yuan/ton, and the basis was stable [26] - Market situation: The raw material side is bearish, and private supply is expected to increase. The utilization rate of high - cis butadiene rubber production capacity is high, demand is better than expected, and inventory shows different trends [26] - Strategy: It is expected to oscillate [27] Natural Rubber - Previous trading day: The main contracts of natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber fell 0.97% and 0.79% respectively. The Shanghai spot price was stable at around 14,300 yuan/ton, and the basis widened [28] - Market situation: Affected by Sino - US trade frictions, the overall sentiment is bearish. Supply disturbances have slowed down, and demand from tire factories has decreased during the holiday. After the holiday, supply disturbances are uncertain, and demand may recover [28] - Strategy: Pay attention to long - position opportunities [29] PVC - Previous trading day: The PVC main contract fell 0.43%. Spot prices decreased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton, and the basis was stable [30] - Market situation: The oversupply situation persists, but the downward space may be limited. After the holiday, focus on exports and supply reduction. Supply capacity utilization decreased, demand from downstream industries was weak, and inventory increased [30] - Strategy: Pay attention to changes on the supply side [30] Urea - Previous trading day: The urea main contract fell 0.50%. The price in Shandong Linyi was stable at 1,520 yuan/ton, and the basis was stable [31] - Market situation: After the holiday, focus on exports and cost changes. Supply has increased, and demand from downstream products has fluctuated slightly. Inventory is higher than expected [31] - Strategy: The downward space is limited [32] PX - Previous trading day: The PX main contract fell 1.58%. The PXN spread was adjusted to 220 US dollars/ton, and the PX - MX spread was 100 US dollars/ton [33] - Market situation: PX load increased, and some devices are under maintenance. Imports increased in August. In the short term, supply - demand is looser, and the cost side is weak, but the PXN spread is relatively strong [33] - Strategy: PX may adjust weakly in the short term. Pay attention to position management, external crude oil changes, and macro - policy changes [33] PTA - Previous trading day: The PTA2601 main contract fell 1.6%. Supply decreased due to some device shutdowns, and demand increased as polyester load rose. Processing fees were under pressure [34][35] - Market situation: In the short term, processing fees may improve, and inventory is low, but demand improvement is limited, and external crude oil prices are weak [35] - Strategy: PTA may oscillate. Be cautious, control risks, and pay attention to oil price changes [35] Ethylene Glycol - Previous trading day: The ethylene glycol main contract fell 1.24%. Supply increased as some devices restarted, and inventory increased. Demand improvement was limited, and the cost of crude oil was weak [36] - Market situation: In the short term, it may oscillate weakly. Pay attention to port inventory and import changes [36] - Strategy: Follow cost changes and pay attention to risk control and macro - policy adjustments [38] Short Fibers - Previous trading day: The short - fiber 2512 main contract fell 1.24%. Supply was at a relatively high level, and demand improved slightly. Cost support was weak [37][38] - Market situation: In the short term, it may oscillate following cost changes. Pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [38] - Strategy: Follow cost changes and pay attention to risk control and macro - policy adjustments [38] Bottle Chips - Previous trading day: The bottle - chip 2512 main contract fell 1.17%. Supply increased, and demand from the downstream soft - drink industry decreased slightly, but exports remained high [39] - Market situation: In the short term, it is expected to oscillate following cost changes. Pay attention to risk control [39] - Strategy: Follow cost changes and pay attention to risk control [39] Lithium Carbonate - Previous trading day: The main contract rose 0.5% to 72,680 yuan/ton. Supply is at a high level, and demand from the energy - storage and power - battery sectors has improved. Inventory is gradually decreasing but remains high [40] - Market situation: In the short term, it may return to a supply - surplus situation, and prices may weaken. Pay attention to the sustainability of consumption [40][41] - Strategy: Pay attention to the sustainability of consumption [41] Copper - Previous trading day: Shanghai copper opened high and closed low due to uncertainties in US tariffs on China. The spot price increased, but downstream buying was weak [43] - Market situation: The closure of an Indonesian copper mine supports prices. Goldman Sachs' price forecast is lower than expected. Sino - US negotiations bring uncertainties [43] - Strategy: Temporarily hold off on trading the Shanghai copper main contract [44] Tin - Previous trading day: The main contract fell 0.76% to 280,000 yuan/ton. The supply from the mine end is tight, and demand shows some resilience. Inventory is decreasing [45] - Market situation: It is expected to oscillate strongly. Pay attention to the risk of accelerated mine resumption and lower - than - expected consumption [45][46] - Strategy: It is expected to oscillate strongly. Pay attention to the risk of accelerated mine resumption and lower - than - expected consumption [45][46] Nickel - Previous trading day: The main contract fell 0.17% to 120,870 yuan/ton. Concerns about supply resurfaced, but the price of high - grade nickel ore is supported. Stainless - steel consumption is weak, and inventory is relatively high [48] - Market situation: It is expected to oscillate. Pay attention to the risk of significant improvement in macro - policies [48][49] - Strategy: It is expected to oscillate. Pay attention to the risk of significant improvement in macro - policies [48][49] Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - Previous trading day: The main contracts of soybean meal and soybean oil fell 1.16% and 0.51% respectively. The spot prices were stable. US and Brazilian soybean production is progressing smoothly, and there are concerns about US soybean exports [50] - Market situation: Domestic soybean supply is abundant, and the profit of oil mills has declined. Demand for soybean meal may increase slightly, and soybean oil consumption is under pressure [50][51] - Strategy: Consider long - position opportunities for soybean meal call options after adjustment. Temporarily hold off on trading soybean oil [51] Palm Oil - Previous trading day: Malaysian palm oil fell for the third consecutive day. Inventory in September increased, and exports in October showed an increase. Chinese imports increased in August, and inventory is at a medium level [52] - Market situation: Consider a long - position strategy on dips [53] - Strategy: Consider a long - position strategy on dips [53] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Previous trading day: Canadian rapeseed prices rose. China has purchased a large amount of Australian rapeseed. Domestic imports of rapeseed, rapeseed meal, and rapeseed oil increased in August. Inventory is at different levels [54][55] - Market situation: Consider a long - position strategy on dips for rapeseed oil [56] - Strategy: Consider a long - position strategy on dips for rapeseed oil [56] Cotton - Previous trading day: Domestic cotton oscillated, and the outer - market cotton rebounded. US cotton production is expected to increase, and there are concerns about Sino - US trade frictions. Domestic cotton production is expected to increase significantly [57][58] - Market situation: Cotton prices are expected to remain under pressure. The domestic - foreign price difference is large, and there is hedging pressure [58] - Strategy: Cotton prices are expected to remain under pressure [59] Sugar - Previous trading day: Zhengzhou sugar fell to a new low, and the outer - market sugar rebounded. Brazilian sugar production increased in September, and the global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus in the new season. Chinese imports increased [60] - Market situation: Consider a wait - and - see strategy. The short - term price may have support [61][62] - Strategy: Consider a wait - and - see strategy [62] Apples - Previous trading day: Domestic apple futures fell slightly. Early - maturing apples had different price trends, and late - maturing apples are about to be listed. The national apple production is expected to increase slightly [63] - Market situation: Consider a wait - and - see strategy. The opening price of late - maturing apples is likely to be higher than last year [63][64] - Strategy: Consider a wait - and - see strategy [64] Live Pigs - Previous trading day: The national average price of live pigs rose to 10.89 yuan/kg. The supply in the north has increased, and the price has stabilized and rebounded. The supply in the south has increased, and the price is stable. The inventory of sows has decreased slightly [65] - Market situation: Consider holding existing short positions and using reverse - arbitrage strategies. Pay attention to the supply rhythm and the entry of second - fattening pigs [65][66] - Strategy: Consider holding existing short positions and using reverse - arbitrage strategies. Pay attention to the supply rhythm and the entry of second - fattening pigs [65][66] Eggs - Previous trading day: The average price of eggs in the main production areas was stable, and that in the main sales areas decreased slightly. The cost is high, and the inventory of laying hens is at a high level. The consumption after the holiday is weak [67] - Market situation: Consider holding existing short positions and adding short positions on rebounds. Pay attention to the change in the culling sentiment and cost collapse [67][68] - Strategy: Consider holding existing short positions and adding short positions on rebounds. Pay attention to the change in the culling sentiment and cost collapse [67][68] Corn and Corn Starch - Previous trading day: The main contracts of corn and corn starch fell. US corn harvesting is progressing smoothly. Domestic demand for corn is slightly increasing, and the inventory of corn starch is at a high level [69][70] - Market situation: Corn prices are expected to remain under pressure. Consider a wait - and - see strategy. Corn starch may follow the corn market [70][71] - Strategy: Corn prices are expected to remain under pressure. Consider a wait - and - see strategy. Corn starch may follow the corn market [70][71]