Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is affected by factors such as tariffs, geopolitical risks, and macro - policy adjustments. Different industries show various trends, and investors are advised to adopt different strategies according to the characteristics of each industry [6][9][11] Summary by Related Catalogs Bonds - **Treasury Bonds**: On the previous trading day, most treasury bond futures closed higher. The central bank conducted 279 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 103 billion yuan. The external environment is favorable for treasury bond futures, but yields are relatively low. It is expected that the volatility will increase, and caution is advised [5][6][7] Stocks - **Stock Index Futures**: On the previous trading day, stock index futures fluctuated slightly. Although tariffs disrupt the domestic economic recovery rhythm and global recession risks increase, domestic asset valuations are low, and policies have hedging space. It is still optimistic about the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets, waiting for long - entry opportunities [8][9][10] Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: On the previous trading day, gold and silver futures prices declined. In Q1 2025, China's domestic gold ETF holdings increased. The complex global trade and financial environment and tariff disturbances are expected to drive up the gold price. It is still optimistic about the long - term value of gold, waiting for long - entry opportunities [11][12] Metals - **Steel Products (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil)**: On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures oscillated weakly. The downward trend of the real estate industry suppresses prices, but the peak demand season may provide short - term support. The valuation is low, and there are signs of technical support. Investors can focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds [13][14] - **Iron Ore**: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures pulled back slightly. The increase in iron ore demand and the decrease in supply and inventory support prices. The valuation is relatively high. Investors can focus on long - entry opportunities at low levels [16] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures continued to decline. The supply of coking coal is loose, and the transaction atmosphere has weakened. The shipment of coke has improved, but the possibility of price increases is reduced. There are signs of a technical bottom. Investors can focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds [18][19] - **Ferroalloys**: On the previous trading day, manganese silicon and silicon iron futures declined. The supply of manganese ore may be disturbed, and the demand for ferroalloys is weak. The high inventory exerts pressure. With the arrival of the peak demand season for steel, the demand for ferroalloys is expected to pick up. Investors can consider relevant option opportunities [21][22] - **Copper**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper rebounded after reaching the bottom. The market expects policies to stabilize the market and promote economic growth. The copper price is expected to be strong, and long - entry operations are recommended [55][56] - **Tin**: On the previous trading day, tin prices declined. The supply and demand fundamentals are affected by multiple factors, and the price is expected to oscillate. Risk control is required in the short term [57][58] - **Nickel**: On the previous trading day, nickel prices rose. The supply of ore is tightened, providing cost support, but the demand may weaken in the off - season. The price is affected by macro - pessimistic sentiment, and caution is advised in the short term [59] - **Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon**: On the previous trading day, the prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon futures declined. The supply - demand imbalance persists, and the prices are expected to be weak. Short - selling operations on rebounds can be considered [60][61] Energy - **Crude Oil**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil oscillated upward. The geopolitical situation is complex, and the resistance of Brent crude at $70 is strong. It is recommended to wait and see [23][24][25] - **Fuel Oil**: On the previous trading day, fuel oil followed crude oil and oscillated higher. The supply of high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be tight, but the inventory in Singapore has increased significantly. It is recommended to wait and see [26][27] Chemicals - **Synthetic Rubber**: On the previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures rose slightly. The supply pressure persists, the demand improvement is limited, and the cost is stable. It is expected to oscillate [28][29] - **Natural Rubber**: On the previous trading day, natural rubber futures declined. The global supply is expected to increase, and the demand is affected by tariffs. It is expected to be weak and oscillate [30][31][32] - **PVC**: On the previous trading day, PVC futures rose slightly. The supply pressure eases marginally, and the demand recovers weakly. It is expected to oscillate at the bottom [33][34][35] - **Urea**: On the previous trading day, urea futures rose. The agricultural demand will decline seasonally in May, and the supply pressure will increase. It is expected to be weak in the short term [36][37][38] - **PX**: On the previous trading day, PX futures rose. The PX load decreased due to maintenance, and the downstream demand improved. The short - term support from crude oil is limited. It is expected to oscillate with the cost [39] - **PTA**: On the previous trading day, PTA futures rose. The supply load increased, and the demand was affected by tariffs. The cost support was insufficient. It is expected to oscillate [40][41] - **Ethylene Glycol**: On the previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures rose. The supply load increased, the inventory was high, and the demand was affected by tariffs. It is expected to oscillate at the bottom [42] - **Short - Fiber**: On the previous trading day, short - fiber futures rose. The supply load decreased slightly, the demand was weak, and the cost support was insufficient. It is expected to oscillate with the cost [43][44] - **Bottle Chips**: On the previous trading day, bottle - chip futures rose. The cost support improved, the supply load increased, and the demand recovered. It is expected to oscillate with the cost [45] - **Soda Ash**: On the previous trading day, soda ash futures declined. The supply is high, the new orders are average, and the downstream demand is weak. It is expected to be weak in the short term [46][47][48] - **Glass**: On the previous trading day, glass futures declined. The production line is at a low level, the inventory changes little, and the demand is affected by tariffs. The market sentiment is expected to be weak [49] - **Caustic Soda**: On the previous trading day, caustic soda futures declined. The production decreased slightly, the downstream demand was weak, and the price is expected to decline slightly in the short term [50][51] - **Pulp**: On the previous trading day, pulp futures declined. The inventory increased, the downstream start - up was mixed, and the market was light. It is expected to oscillate at a relatively low level [52] - **Lithium Carbonate**: On the previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures declined. The supply is high, the demand is weak, and the inventory increases. It is expected to be weak [53][54] Agricultural Products - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: On the previous trading day, soybean oil and soybean meal futures declined. The supply of soybeans is expected to be loose, the demand for soybean oil and soybean meal is expected to increase slightly. It is recommended to wait and see for soybean meal and consider call option opportunities for soybean oil [62][63] - **Palm Oil**: On the previous trading day, palm oil futures declined. The production is expected to increase, the inventory may rise, and the export has increased. It is recommended to wait and see [64][65][66] - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The price of Canadian rapeseed fluctuated slightly. China has imposed tariffs on Canadian rapeseed products. The inventory of rapeseed and rapeseed meal decreased, and the inventory of rapeseed oil increased. Investors can consider the opportunity to expand the spread between soybean and rapeseed products [67][68] - **Cotton**: On the previous trading day, domestic cotton futures oscillated. The planting area in Xinjiang has increased, and the weather is a key factor. The textile and clothing export is affected by tariffs. It is recommended to short - sell on rebounds in the long term [69][70][71] - **Sugar**: On the previous trading day, domestic sugar futures fluctuated. The sugar production in India is lower than expected, and Brazil is gradually starting to crush. The domestic industrial inventory is neutral, and the import volume is low. It is recommended to wait and see [73][74] - **Apple**: On the previous trading day, apple futures declined significantly. The inventory is low, the consumption is good, and the spot price is strong. It is recommended to go long on dips [75][76] - **Pig**: On the previous trading day, pig futures declined slightly. The supply is sufficient, the consumption is in the off - season, and the price is expected to decline. Attention should be paid to taking profits on short positions [77][78] - **Egg**: On the previous trading day, egg futures declined. The egg supply is expected to increase, the consumption is in the off - season, and the feed cost may rise in the long term. Attention should be paid to reverse - spread opportunities [79][80] - **Corn and Corn Starch**: On the previous trading day, corn and corn starch futures rose. The supply of corn is expected to be slightly less surplus, the demand is expected to increase, and the inventory is high. Corn starch follows the corn market. It is recommended to wait and see [81][82][83] - **Log**: On the previous trading day, log futures declined. The arrival of logs decreased, the inventory was relatively stable, and the market was light. There is no obvious driving force in the fundamentals [84][85]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes various commodities including bonds, stocks, precious metals, and industrial and agricultural products, providing market trends, influencing factors, and investment strategies for each [5][8][10]. - Overall, the market is affected by factors such as tariffs, economic policies, and supply - demand relationships, with different commodities showing different trends and investment opportunities [6][8][22]. Summary by Commodity Bonds - Last trading day, most bond futures closed higher. The central bank conducted 159.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 91 billion yuan. The government plans to implement more active fiscal and monetary policies [5]. - Although external environment is favorable for bond futures, current bond yields are relatively low. China's economy shows a stable recovery trend, so it is recommended to be cautious [6]. - It is expected that the fluctuation range will increase, and caution should be maintained [7]. Stocks - Last trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. Although tariffs disrupt the domestic economic recovery rhythm and global recession risk increases, domestic asset valuations are low and policies have hedging space [8]. - It is still optimistic about the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets and suggests waiting for long - entry opportunities [9]. Precious Metals - Last trading day, gold and silver futures prices declined. The US consumer confidence index and inflation expectations have certain impacts [10]. - The complex global trade and financial environment, potential monetary policy easing, and tariff environment are expected to drive up the price of gold. It is still optimistic about the long - term value of gold, and it is recommended to take profit on previous long positions and wait for new long - entry opportunities [10][11]. Industrial Metals - **Steel Products (including rebar, hot - rolled coil)**: Last trading day, prices slightly declined. The real - estate industry's downturn suppresses demand, but the peak demand season may provide short - term support. Valuations are low, and there are signs of technical support. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds [12]. - **Iron Ore**: Last trading day, prices slightly adjusted. The increase in iron ore demand and the decrease in supply and inventory support prices. Valuations are relatively high. It is recommended to look for long - entry opportunities at low levels [14]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Last trading day, prices slightly declined. Coking coal supply is loose, while coke demand has improved to some extent. There are signs of a technical bottom. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds [16]. - **Ferroalloys**: Last trading day, prices declined. Manganese ore supply may be disrupted, and the supply - demand situation of ferroalloys is gradually improving. It is recommended to consider call options on manganese silicon and short - covering opportunities on silicon iron [18][19]. - **Copper**: Last trading day, prices rose. The cooling of tariff disputes and the possibility of a Fed rate cut in June support prices. It is expected that prices will be strong, and long - entry operations are recommended [48][49]. - **Tin**: Last trading day, prices declined. Affected by tariffs, price fluctuations have intensified. The supply side has both positive and negative factors, and demand is good. It is expected that prices will fluctuate, and risk control is needed [50][51]. - **Nickel**: Last trading day, prices declined. Affected by tariffs, the market sentiment is pessimistic. The supply side has cost support, but demand may weaken in the off - season. It is recommended to control risks and wait and see [52]. - **Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon**: Last trading day, prices declined. The supply - demand imbalance persists, and costs are expected to decrease. It is recommended to short - sell at high levels on rebounds [53][55]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Last trading day, prices fluctuated upward. The increase in net long positions of speculators and the increase in the number of oil and gas rigs are noteworthy. The Sino - US negotiation and OPEC's production policy are uncertain. It is recommended to wait and see [20][23]. - **Fuel Oil**: Last trading day, prices followed crude oil and fluctuated higher. The high - sulfur fuel oil market may enter the peak demand season, and the low - sulfur fuel oil market is stable. Due to the sanctions on Russia, the supply of high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be tight. It is recommended to wait and see [24][25]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Last trading day, prices rose. Supply pressure persists, demand improvement is limited, and costs are stable. It is expected that prices will fluctuate [26][28]. - **Natural Rubber**: Last trading day, prices showed mixed performance. The supply is expected to increase, and demand is affected by tariffs. It is expected that prices will be weakly volatile [29][30]. - **PVC**: Last trading day, prices declined. Supply pressure eases, demand recovers weakly, and inventory removal is slow. It is expected that prices will fluctuate at the bottom [31][33]. - **Urea**: Last trading day, prices declined. Agricultural demand will weaken seasonally, and new production capacity will be released. It is expected that prices will be weakly volatile in the short term [34][35]. - **PX**: Last trading day, prices rose. PX device maintenance reduces supply, and downstream demand improves. Affected by crude oil prices, it is expected that prices will fluctuate with the cost side [36][37]. - **PTA**: Last trading day, prices rose. Supply increases, demand improvement is less than expected, and costs provide support. It is expected that prices will fluctuate with the cost side [38]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Last trading day, prices declined. Supply increases, inventory removal is difficult, and demand is affected by tariffs. It is expected that prices will fluctuate at the bottom [39][40]. - **Short - Fiber**: Last trading day, prices rose. Supply is at a relatively high level, demand is weak, and costs provide limited support. It is expected that prices will fluctuate with the cost side [41]. - **Bottle Chips**: Last trading day, prices rose. Raw material prices recover, supply increases slightly, and demand improves. It is expected that prices will fluctuate with the cost side [42]. - **Soda Ash**: Last trading day, prices declined. Supply remains high, demand is weak, and inventory removal is slow. It is expected that the market will remain weak in the short term [43]. - **Glass**: Last trading day, prices declined. Production lines are at a low level, inventory changes little, and demand is affected by tariffs. It is expected that the market sentiment will be weak [44]. - **Caustic Soda**: Last trading day, prices declined. Some large - scale devices are under maintenance, demand from the alumina industry is limited, and the market turns weak again [45]. - **Pulp**: Last trading day, prices declined slightly. Inventory accumulates, downstream start - up rates vary, and the market is weak and volatile [46]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: Last trading day, soybean meal prices declined, and soybean oil prices rose. Argentine weather is favorable for soybean harvesting, and domestic soybean supply is expected to be loose. It is recommended to wait and see for soybean meal and consider call options on soybean oil at the bottom [56][57]. - **Palm Oil**: Malaysian palm oil prices rose. Domestic imports increase, and inventory accumulates. It is recommended to wait and see [58][60]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: Canadian rapeseed prices rose. China has imposed tariffs on Canadian rapeseed products. Inventory shows different trends. It is recommended to consider the opportunity to expand the spread between soybean and rapeseed products [61][62]. - **Cotton**: Last trading day, prices fluctuated. The spring sowing of Xinjiang cotton is almost completed, and weather is a key factor. Textile exports are affected by tariffs. It is recommended to short - sell at high levels on rebounds in the long - term [63][68]. - **Sugar**: Last trading day, domestic sugar prices rose slightly, and international sugar prices rose significantly. Indian sugar production is lower than expected, and domestic supply pressure is not large. It is recommended to wait and see [70][72]. - **Apple**: Last trading day, prices rose significantly. Inventory is low, consumption is good, and spot prices are strong. It is recommended to go long at low levels after corrections [74][75]. - **Pig**: Last trading day, prices declined. Supply increases, consumption is in the off - season, and prices are expected to decline in the short term. It is recommended to take profit on previous short positions [76][78]. - **Egg**: Last trading day, prices were stable. Egg supply is expected to increase, and consumption is in the off - season. It is recommended to pay attention to reverse spread opportunities [79][80]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: Last trading day, prices rose. Corn supply is still under pressure in the short term, but the bottom is supported. Corn starch follows the corn market. It is recommended to wait and see [81][83]. - **Log**: Last trading day, prices rose. Log prices decline, inventory is relatively neutral, and the real - estate market is in the destocking cycle. The spot market provides weak support for the futures market [84][85].

2025 年 4 月 25 日星期五 地址： 电话： 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-67070250 上海市浦东新区向城路 288 号 1101A； 021-61101856 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 | 尿素： | | 11 | | --- | --- | --- | | 对二甲苯 | PX： | 11 | | PTA： | | 12 | | 乙二醇： | | 12 | | 短纤： | | 13 | | 瓶片： | | 13 | | 纯碱： | | 13 | | 玻璃： | | 14 | | 烧碱： | | 14 | | 纸浆： | | 15 | | 碳酸锂： | | 15 | | 铜： | | 16 | | --- | --- | --- | | 锡： | | 16 | | 镍： | | 17 | | 工业硅/多晶硅： | | 17 | | 豆油、豆粕： | | 17 | | 棕榈油： | | 18 | | 菜粕、菜油： | | 19 | | 棉花： | | 19 | | 白糖： | | 20 | | 苹果： | | 21 | | 生猪： | | 22 | | 鸡蛋： | | 22 ...

2025 年 4 月 24 日星期四 地址： 电话： 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-67070250 上一交易日，国债期货收盘全线下跌，30 年期主力合约跌 0.40%，10 年期主力合 约跌 0.17%，5 年期主力合约跌 0.13%，2 年期主力合约跌 0.04%。 上海市浦东新区向城路 288 号 1101A； 021-61101856 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 | 国债: | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 股指: | .. | N | | 贵金属: | .. | | | 螺纹、热卷: . | | | | 铁矿石： . | | | | 焦煤焦炭： | | | | 铁合金: | . | | | 原油: | | | | 燃料油: | | | | 合成橡胶: | | | | 天然橡胶: | .. | 1 | | PVC: | .. | 1 | | 尿素: | | 1 | | 对二甲苯 PX: | | 1 | | PTA: . | | | | 乙二醇: . | | | | 短纤: | .. | 1: | | 瓶片: | .. | 1 | | 纯碱: | . | 1: ...

2025 年 4 月 23 日星期三 地址： 电话： 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-67070250 上海市浦东新区向城路 288 号 1101A； 021-61101856 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 | 天然橡胶： | | 10 | | --- | --- | --- | | PVC： | | 10 | | 尿素： | | 11 | | 对二甲苯 | PX： | 11 | | PTA： | | 11 | | 乙二醇： | | 12 | | 短纤： | | 12 | | 瓶片： | | 13 | | 纯碱： | | 13 | | 玻璃： | | 14 | | 烧碱： | | 14 | | 纸浆： | | 15 | | 碳酸锂： | | 15 | | 铜： | | 15 | | --- | --- | --- | | 锡： | | 16 | | 镍： | | 16 | | 工业硅/多晶硅： | | 17 | | 豆油、豆粕： | | 17 | | 棕榈油： | | 18 | | 菜粕、菜油： | | 19 | | 棉花： | | 19 | | 白糖： | | 20 | | 苹果： | | ...

| PTA： | | 12 | | --- | --- | --- | | 乙二醇： | | 12 | | 短纤： | | 13 | | 瓶片： | | 13 | | 纯碱： | | 13 | | 玻璃： | | 14 | | 烧碱： | | 14 | | 纸浆： | | 15 | | 碳酸锂： | | 15 | 2025 年 4 月 22 日星期二 地址： 电话： 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-67070250 上海市浦东新区向城路 288 号 1101A； 021-61101856 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 | 铜： | | 16 | | --- | --- | --- | | 锡： | | 16 | | 镍： | | 17 | | 工业硅/多晶硅： | | 17 | | 豆油、豆粕： | | 18 | | 棕榈油： | | 18 | | 菜粕、菜油： | | 19 | | 棉花： | | 19 | | 白糖： | | 21 | | 苹果： | | 22 | | 生猪： | | 22 | | 鸡蛋： | | 23 | | 玉米： | | 23 | | 原木： | | 24 | | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - For Treasury bonds, expect increased volatility and remain cautious [6][7] - For stock indices, be optimistic about the long - term performance and wait for opportunities to go long [10][11] - For precious metals, the medium - to - long - term upward logic remains strong, and previous long positions can be held [12][13][14] - For rebar and hot - rolled coils, investors can look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds and participate with a light position [15][16] - For iron ore, investors can look for buying opportunities at low levels, and participate with a light position [17][18][19] - For coking coal and coke, investors can look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds and participate with a light position [20][21] - For ferroalloys, consider manganese silicon out - of - the - money call options at low levels and short - covering opportunities for silicon iron at the bottom, or consider out - of - the - money call options at low levels if there are large spot losses [22][23] - For crude oil, consider a long - biased operation on the main contract [24][25][26] - For fuel oil, consider a long - biased operation on the main contract [27][28][29] - For synthetic rubber, expect weak oscillations [30][31] - For natural rubber, expect weak oscillations [32][33] - For PVC, expect bottom oscillations [34][35][37] - For urea, expect short - term weakness [38][39] - For p - xylene (PX), expect low - level oscillations following the cost side, and operate with caution [40][41] - For PTA, expect bottom oscillations, and participate with caution [42] - For ethylene glycol, expect bottom oscillations, and participate with caution [43][44] - For staple fiber, expect bottom adjustments following the cost side, and participate with caution [45] - For bottle chips, expect low - level oscillations following the cost side, and pay attention to cost price changes [46][47] - For soda ash, expect short - term weakness [48] - For glass, expect a weak market sentiment [49] - For caustic soda, price fluctuations depend on supply - demand games, and beware of premature market movements [50][51] - For pulp, expect a weak and low - level repeated oscillation [52] - For lithium carbonate, expect a weak operation [53] - For copper, consider a long - biased operation on the main contract [54][55] - For tin, expect price oscillations, control risks in the short term, and wait for the release of risk sentiment [56] - For nickel, control risks in the short term, and wait for the macro sentiment to stabilize [57] - For industrial silicon and polysilicon, consider short - selling at high levels on rebounds [58][59][60] - For soybean oil and soybean meal, remain on the sidelines for soybean meal; for soybean oil, consider out - of - the - money call options at the bottom support range [61][62] - For palm oil, remain on the sidelines for now [63][64] - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, consider the opportunity to widen the spread after the soybean - rapeseed spread narrows [65][66] - For cotton, wait to short sell the far - month contract at high prices after a rebound [67][68][69] - For sugar, remain on the sidelines [71][73][74] - For apples, consider going long at low prices after a pullback [76][77] - For live pigs, consider short - selling opportunities at high prices [78][79][80] - For eggs, wait for the release of the current market sentiment [81][82] - For corn, remain on the sidelines for now [83][84] - For logs, beware of a rapid decline if the reality is weaker than expected [85][86] Summary by Directory Treasury Bonds - The previous trading day saw a differentiated close of Treasury bond futures, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts having different price changes. The central bank conducted 250.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net investment of 222 billion yuan [5] - The external environment is favorable for Treasury bond futures, but yields are relatively low. China's economy shows a stable recovery trend, and it is advisable to remain cautious [6] Stock Indices - The previous trading day saw slight oscillations in stock index futures, with different changes in the main contracts of various indices [8][9] - The first - quarter fiscal revenue decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, and expenditure increased by 4.2%. In March, total social power consumption increased by 4.8% year - on - year [9] - Although there are concerns about corporate profit growth and global recession, domestic asset valuations are low, and policies have hedging space. Be optimistic about the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets [10] Precious Metals - The previous trading day saw gold and silver main contracts with different price changes. The complex global trade and financial environment, potential monetary policy easing, and other factors are expected to drive up the price of gold [12] - Be optimistic about the long - term value of gold, and previous long positions can be held [13] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - The previous trading day saw a slight correction in rebar and hot - rolled coil futures. The real - estate industry's downturn suppresses rebar prices, but the peak - season demand may provide short - term support. Hot - rolled coils may follow a similar trend. Steel prices are at a low valuation, and the downward space may be limited [15] Iron Ore - The previous trading day saw a slight correction in iron ore futures. The increase in iron ore demand and the decrease in imports and port inventory support the price. The valuation is relatively high among black - series products. Consider buying at low levels [17][18] Coking Coal and Coke - The previous trading day saw weak oscillations in coking coal and coke futures. The supply of coking coal is loose, and the transaction atmosphere has weakened. The shipment of coke has improved, but the possibility of further price increases is low. Consider short - selling on rebounds [20] Ferroalloys - The previous trading day saw slight declines in the main contracts of manganese silicon and silicon iron. The supply of manganese ore may be disturbed, and the demand for ferroalloys is weak while the supply is relatively high. Consider options opportunities based on different situations [22][23] Crude Oil - The previous trading day saw INE crude oil rise and then fall. Speculators increased their net long positions in US crude oil futures. The number of US oil and gas rigs decreased, and OPEC deepened its production - cut agreement. Consider a long - biased operation [24][25][26] Fuel Oil - The previous trading day saw fuel oil rise and then fall. Asian fuel oil demand is unlikely to increase sharply. The sales of marine fuel oil in the UAE's Fujairah Port recovered in March. Consider a long - biased operation as the market may be oscillating upward [27][28][29] Synthetic Rubber - The previous trading day saw a decline in the main contract of synthetic rubber. Supply pressure persists, demand improvement is limited, and it may maintain weak oscillations [30] Natural Rubber - The previous trading day saw different price changes in the main contracts of natural rubber and 20 - number rubber. Global supply is expected to increase, demand is affected by tariffs, and it may maintain weak oscillations [32] PVC - The previous trading day saw a decline in the main contract of PVC. Supply pressure eases marginally, demand recovers weakly, and it may oscillate at the bottom [34][35][37] Urea - The previous trading day saw an increase in the main contract of urea. In the short term, it may oscillate weakly. Agricultural demand is in a lull, and new production capacity is being released [38] P - Xylene (PX) - The previous trading day saw an increase in the PX2509 main contract. PX装置 maintenance and downstream PTA load reduction. It is expected to oscillate at a low level following the cost side [40][41] PTA - The previous trading day saw an increase in the PTA2509 main contract. Supply and demand fundamentals have few contradictions, and it may oscillate at the bottom [42] Ethylene Glycol - The previous trading day saw a decline in the main contract of ethylene glycol. Supply improves due to coal - based plant maintenance, but demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate at the bottom [43][44] Staple Fiber - The previous trading day saw a decline in the staple fiber 2506 main contract. Downstream demand is weak, and it may adjust at the bottom following the cost side [45] Bottle Chips - The previous trading day saw an increase in the bottle chips 2506 main contract. Raw material prices fluctuate, and it is expected to oscillate at a low level following the cost side [46][47] Soda Ash - The previous trading day saw a decline in the main 2509 contract of soda ash. Production and inventory are at high levels, and the market may remain weak in the short term [48] Glass - The previous trading day saw a significant decline in the main 2509 contract of glass. A production line changed its product type. Production lines are at a low level, and inventory changes little. The market sentiment is weak [49] Caustic Soda - The previous trading day saw a slight increase in the main 2505 contract of caustic soda. Production decreased last week, and demand has slightly improved. Price fluctuations depend on supply - demand games [50][51] Pulp - The previous trading day saw a decline in the main 2507 contract of pulp. Port inventory increased slightly, and downstream开工 rates varied. The market is expected to oscillate at a low level [52] Lithium Carbonate - The previous trading day saw a decline in the main contract of lithium carbonate. The trade tariff event affects demand, and supply remains high. It is expected to operate weakly [53] Copper - The previous trading day saw an upward oscillation in Shanghai copper. The price increased, and the spot market had limited supply. Consider a long - biased operation [54] Tin - The previous trading day saw an increase in tin prices. The Bisie tin mine may resume operation, and Indonesian mining costs have increased. Consumption data is good, and prices are expected to oscillate [56] Nickel - The previous trading day saw a decline in nickel prices. The US tariff event has a negative impact on the market. Supply is tightened, and cost support is strong, but demand may weaken in the off - season [57] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - The previous trading day saw a significant decline in the prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon. Supply and demand are imbalanced, and prices are expected to continue to bottom - out [58][59] Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - The previous trading day saw declines in soybean meal and soybean oil main contracts. Brazilian soybean production is high, and domestic supply is abundant. Consider different strategies for soybean oil and soybean meal [61][62] Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil had a slight decline. Domestic imports decreased, and inventory is at a low level. Remain on the sidelines for now [63][64] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed exports decreased. China has imposed tariffs on Canadian products, and domestic inventories are at high levels. Consider the opportunity to widen the spread [65][66] Cotton - The previous trading day saw a weak oscillation in domestic cotton. US cotton export sales increased, and the planting rate is lower than in previous years. Textile exports are affected by tariffs, and domestic demand is weak. Consider short - selling the far - month contract at high prices [67][68][69] Sugar - The previous trading day saw a strong oscillation in domestic sugar. Brazilian sugar production increased, and Indian sugar production was lower than expected. Domestic inventory is neutral, and it is advisable to remain on the sidelines [71][73][74] Apples - The previous trading day saw apple futures rise and then fall. Cold - storage inventory decreased rapidly, and the market sales are good. Consider going long at low prices after a pullback [76][77] Live Pigs - The previous day saw a slight decline in the national average price of live pigs. Demand is weak, and the supply pressure is increasing. Consider short - selling opportunities at high prices [78][79][80] Eggs - The previous trading day saw an increase in the average price of eggs in the main production areas. Egg production capacity is increasing, and consider waiting for the release of market sentiment [81][82] Corn - The previous trading day saw a decline in the corn main contract. The sales of the current season are almost over, and port inventory is high. Supply pressure exists in the short term, and consumption is slightly increasing. Remain on the sidelines for now [83][84] Logs - The previous trading day saw a decline in the main 2507 contract of logs. A tropical cyclone may affect shipments. Inventory is relatively neutral, and beware of a rapid decline [85][86]

重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-67070250 上海市浦东新区向城路 288 号 1101A； 021-61101856 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 2025 年 4 月 18 日星期五 地址： 电话： | | | | 铜： | | 16 | | --- | --- | --- | | 锡： | | 17 | | 镍： | | 17 | | 工业硅/多晶硅： | | 17 | | 豆油、豆粕： | | 18 | | 棕榈油： | | 19 | | 菜粕、菜油： | | 19 | | 棉花： | | 19 | | 白糖： | | 21 | | 苹果： | | 22 | | 生猪： | | 22 | | 鸡蛋： | | 23 | | 玉米： | | 23 | | 原木： | | 24 | | 免责声明 | | 26 | 国债： 上一交易日，股指期货全线上涨，沪深 300 股指期货（IF）主力合约 0.90%，上证 50 股指期货（IH）主力 0.82%，中证 500 股指期货（IC）主力合约 0.47%，中证 1000 股指期货（IM）主力合约 1.06%。 当前国内经济保持平稳，但关税打乱 ...

当前白糖基本面状况 2025 年 4 月 18 日 研究员：张伟 邮箱：xnqh_zwei@swfutures.com 期货从业证书号：F3011397 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0012289 1 一、全球供需分析 （一）全球糖供需偏紧 据国际糖业组织（ISO）3 月发布的供需报告，其主要内容如下： 预计 2024/2025 榨季全球食糖供应短缺值从此前预估的 251.3 万吨（11 月）扩 大至 488.1 万吨，为近 9 年来供应短缺的最高值。 因巴西和印度减产，以及泰国甘蔗总产量下降等因素。预计 2024/2025 榨 季全球食糖产量降至 1.7554 亿吨，较上榨季减少 584.4 万吨；全球食糖消费 量达到创纪录的 1.8042 亿吨，较上榨季增加 44.9 万吨；全球食糖进出口总量 均有所下降，其中进口量为 6332.4 万吨，出口量为 6266.1 万吨，存在 66.3 万吨的贸易缺口。 目前，北半球主要产糖国生产处于尾声，市场焦点逐渐转移至巴西开榨生 产情况。 （数据来源：ISO） 2 图 1：全球糖供需差（单位：万吨） 179 万吨，库存处于近几年历史同期最低水平，阶段性供给偏紧。但随着巴西 ...

2025 年 4 月 17 日星期四 地址： 电话： 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-67070250 上海市浦东新区向城路 288 号 1101A； 021-61101856 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 | 国债: | | | --- | --- | | 股指: | | | .. 贵金属: | ﺗ | | 螺纹、热卷: . | ( | | 铁矿石: . | | | 焦煤焦炭: . | 1 | | 铁合金: | | | .. 原油: | | | 燃料油: | | | 合成橡胶： 2017-02-04 11:10:10 11-07-2017 11:10:10 11-07-2017 11:10 11-02-20 11:11:11 11-0 | | | 天然橡胶: .. | | | PVC: .. | 1( | | 尼 表 · · | 1 | | 对二甲苯 PX: | 12 | | PTA: . | | | 乙二醇: . | | | 短纤: .. | 1: | | 瓶片: .. | | | 纯碱: .. | | | 玻璃: .. | | | 烧碱: .. | | | 纸浆: . | 16 | | ...