| | | | 碳酸锂： | | 16 | | --- | --- | --- | | 铜： | | 17 | | 铝： | | 17 | | 锌： | | 18 | | 铅： | | 18 | | 锡： | | 18 | | 镍： | | 19 | | 工业硅/多晶硅： | | 19 | | 豆油、豆粕： | | 20 | | 棕榈油： | | 20 | | 菜粕、菜油： | | 21 | | 棉花： | | 21 | | 白糖： | | 22 | | 苹果： | | 23 | | 生猪： | | 24 | | 鸡蛋： | | 24 | | 玉米： | | 25 | | 原木： | | 25 | | 免责声明 | | 27 | 2025 年 4 月 2 日星期三 地址： 电话： 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-67070250 上海市浦东新区向城路 288 号 1101A； 021-61101856 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 国债： 上一交易日，国债期货收盘多数下跌，30 年期主力合约涨 0.15%，10 年期主力合 约跌 0.08%，5 年期主力合约跌 0.04%，2 年期主力合约跌 ...

2025 年 4 月 1 日星期二 地址： 电话： 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-67070250 上海市浦东新区向城路 288 号 1101A； 021-61101856 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 | 国债: | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 股指: .. | | | | 贵金属: | | ﺭ | | 螺纹、热卷: . | | 0 | | 铁矿石: . | | | | 焦煤焦炭: | | ( | | 铁合金: | | 1 | | 原油: | | 8 | | 燃料油: | | | | 聚烯烃: | | | | 合成橡胶: | .. | | | 天然橡胶: | | 10 | | PVC: | | 11 | | 尿素: | | 11 | | 对二甲苯 PX. . | | | | PTA: . | | | | 乙二醇: 13 | | | | 短纤: | | | | 瓶片: . | | | | 纯碱: | .. | | | 玻璃: | .. | | | 烧碱: | .. | | | 碳酸锂： | | 16 | | --- | --- | --- | | 铜： | | 17 ...

地址： 电话： 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-67070250 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 | 纸浆： 16 | | --- | 2025 年 3 月 31 日星期一 上海市浦东新区向城路 288 号 1101A； 021-61101856 | 碳酸锂： 17 | | --- | | 铜： 17 | | 铝： 17 | | 锌： 18 | | 铅： 18 | | 锡： 19 | | 镍： 19 | | 工业硅/多晶硅： 19 | | 豆油、豆粕： 20 | | 棕榈油： 21 | | 菜粕、菜油： 21 | | 棉花： 22 | | 白糖： 23 | | 苹果： 23 | | 生猪： 24 | | 鸡蛋： 25 | | 玉米： 25 | | 原木： 26 | | 免责声明 27 | 国债： 上一交易日，30 年期主力合约跌 0.49%，10 年期主力合约跌 0.08%，5 年期主力合 约跌 0.04%，2 年期主力合约涨 0.00%。 公开市场方面，3 月 28 日，中国央行开展 785 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作，操作利率 为 1.5%。当日 930 亿元逆回购到期。 中国人民银行召开 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro data remains stable, but the market's confidence in macro - economic recovery is weak. More macro - support policies are expected to be gradually implemented. For different futures products, the market trends vary, and corresponding investment strategies are proposed for each product [5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Fixed - Income Products Treasury Bonds - The previous trading day saw a full - line decline in treasury bond futures. The current macro data is stable, but the market's confidence in economic recovery is weak. The upward logic of treasury bond futures is fully priced, and the downward movement requires economic recovery. It is expected that there will be no trend - like market in the future, with increased volatility, and caution is advised [5]. Stock Index Futures - The previous trading day witnessed a slight oscillation in stock index futures. The stable macro data helps reverse the market's pessimistic expectations. More macro - support policies will be implemented, and the market is expected to improve. Despite overseas trade uncertainties, the market has long - standing expectations. The current valuation of major indices is low, with room for improvement. It is still optimistic about the subsequent trend of stock indices, and it is advisable to consider buying stock index futures on dips [7][8]. Precious Metals - The previous trading day saw an increase in the prices of gold and silver. The US GDP and PCE data were released, and the Fed paused rate cuts. The US announced tariffs on multiple countries, increasing market risk aversion. The long - term logic of precious metals remains strong, and it is recommended to hold existing long positions [10]. Base Metals Copper - The previous trading day saw a decline in the price of copper. The Fed maintained the interest rate range, and the dollar index was revised upwards. The spot processing fee of copper concentrate decreased, and the production of electrolytic copper is expected to decline. The traditional consumption season is coming, but high prices may affect the processing enterprises' production. The de - stocking speed of social inventory has slowed down. It is advisable to be cautious when chasing the rise [54][55]. Aluminum - The previous trading day saw a decline in the prices of aluminum and alumina. The supply of alumina is abundant, and the production of electrolytic aluminum has a small increase. The consumption season is coming, and the consumption end has rigid support. The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum and aluminum rods has decreased. The price of alumina has limited upward space, and the aluminum price is expected to continue to adjust [57]. Zinc - The previous trading day saw a decline in the price of zinc. The processing fee of zinc concentrate is likely to rise, and the smelting profit has improved. The supply is expected to increase. The impact of environmental protection in the north has subsided, and the consumption has improved. The social inventory of refined zinc has decreased. The zinc price is expected to continue to oscillate within a range [59]. Lead - The previous trading day saw a decline in the price of lead. The processing fee of lead concentrate remained stable, and a large - scale primary lead smelter has a maintenance plan. The production of recycled lead will increase. The terminal consumption has no obvious change, and the traditional off - season is coming. The social inventory of electrolytic lead has increased. The lead price is under pressure [61]. Tin - The previous trading day saw an increase in the price of tin. The supply of tin ore is disturbed, and the processing fee is low. The raw material inventory of smelters has decreased, and the operating rate is lower than normal. The downstream orders are not as expected, and the high price has inhibited procurement. The domestic inventory has increased, and the overseas de - stocking has slowed down. The price is expected to oscillate [63]. Nickel - The previous trading day saw a decline in the price of nickel. The news has increased the disturbance, and the cost is strongly supported. The downstream acceptance of high prices is low, and the demand is weak. The stainless - steel market has weak transactions, but the profit has recovered. The market is expected to remain in a supply - surplus situation, and the price has limited upward space [64]. Energy and Chemical Products Crude Oil - The previous trading day saw INE crude oil open high and then decline. The CFTC data showed that fund managers reduced their net long positions in US crude oil futures and options. The number of oil and gas rigs in the US increased. OPEC announced a new compensation - based production cut plan. The negotiation between the US and Russia ended without a joint statement, and the situation in Ukraine is complex. The OPEC production increase date is approaching, and the crude oil price is expected to face resistance and decline. It is advisable to take a short - position operation on the main crude oil contract [22][23]. Fuel Oil - The previous trading day saw fuel oil decline following crude oil. Asian merchants expect an increase in fuel oil supply from the Middle East and Africa, and more European fuel oil is flowing to Asia. The supply and demand fundamentals are loose, and the high - sulfur fuel oil market is weak. The pressure on the high - sulfur fuel oil market will increase in the future. The low - sulfur fuel oil market is expected to fluctuate within a range. It is advisable to take a short - position operation on the main fuel oil contract [25][26]. Polyolefins - The previous trading day saw the polyethylene market price adjust, and the polypropylene futures oscillated within a range. The supply is expected to increase as new production capacity is released and previous maintenance devices restart. The social inventory is high, and the de - stocking speed is slow. The downstream demand recovers slowly, and the overall market is in a supply - demand imbalance. The polyolefin market is expected to oscillate with a slightly upward trend this week. It is advisable to take a long - position operation on the PP and L main contracts [28][29]. Agricultural Products Soybean Meal and Soybean Oil - The previous trading day saw a decline in the price of soybean meal and an increase in the price of soybean oil. The dollar weakened, and the market expects a decrease in the US soybean planting area in the 25/26 season. The soybean crushing volume of major oil mills decreased last week. The inventory of soybean meal continued to increase, and the inventory of soybean oil decreased. The consumption of soybean oil is expected to grow moderately, and the consumption of soybean meal is expected to increase slightly. The supply of domestic soybeans is expected to increase, and the price of soybean meal may face pressure in the short term. The soybean oil inventory has difficulty in de - stocking and may continue to fluctuate within a range. It is advisable to wait and see, and consider a long - position attempt at the bottom - support range after the price decline [66][67]. Palm Oil - The previous trading day saw an increase in the price of palm oil. The inventory of Indonesian palm oil increased in January, and the export decreased. The export of Malaysian palm oil decreased in March. The domestic palm oil inventory is at a low level in the past 7 years. The catering consumption has increased. It is advisable to close short positions [68]. Cotton - The previous trading day saw domestic cotton oscillate weakly, and the overseas cotton price increased. The market is waiting for the new - year planting area report. The US cotton export sales decreased last week. The global cotton ending inventory was revised downwards. The domestic supply is sufficient, and the textile industry is in the peak season, but the demand is average. In the long - term, the overseas supply - demand is loose, and the domestic market lacks a strong upward drive. It is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling after the price rebound [73][74]. Sugar - The previous trading day saw domestic sugar oscillate, and the overseas raw sugar price declined. The Indian sugar production decreased, which may limit its export. The Thai sugar production increased. The domestic new - year production increase is less than expected, and the import volume in the first quarter is estimated to be low. The supply pressure is not large. It is advisable to consider taking a long - position operation on dips [76][77]. Apple - The previous trading day saw a slight decline in the price of apple futures. The exchange cancelled a delivery warehouse in Shandong, which is beneficial for reducing the delivery pressure. The market is preparing for the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, and the apple inventory is low. The trading in the production area is good, and the price is strong. The delivery in the sales area has increased, and the goods - taking is good. It is advisable to consider taking a long - position operation on dips [78]. Live Pigs - The previous trading day saw the national average price of live pigs decline. The supply of large - scale farms is expected to increase slightly in March, and the consumption is in the off - season. The secondary fattening volume has decreased. The spot price is expected to have limited downward movement. The frozen - product storage has started, and the futures price has limited upward movement. It is advisable to try short - selling near the semi - annual line pressure [81][84]. Eggs - The previous trading day saw a decline in the average price of eggs in the main production areas and a flat price in the main sales areas. The cost of eggs is low, and the breeding profit is still in a loss. The inventory of laying hens has increased, and the supply is expected to continue to increase in March. The consumption is in the off - season, and the egg price has a risk of decline. It is advisable to sell deep - out - of - the - money put options and pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling the far - month contract on rallies [85][86]. Corn - The previous trading day saw a decline in the price of corn futures. The US southern corn planting has started in advance, and the market expects an increase in the US corn planting area in the 25/26 season. The domestic grain - selling progress is over 80%, and the port inventory is high. The corn storage is continuing, and the import of US corn is suspended. The demand for corn maintains a slight increase. The domestic corn supply surplus is expected to ease, and the price has a bottom - support. The import may increase in the future, and the short - term supply pressure still exists. It is advisable to wait and see [87][88]. Logs - The previous trading day saw a slight increase in the price of logs. The domestic radiation - pine log inventory has slightly adjusted. The price of radiation - pine logs is stable. The current inventory is relatively neutral, and the real estate is in the de - stocking cycle. It is necessary to be vigilant against a rapid decline if the reality is weaker than expected [90][91].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various futures markets, including bonds, stock indices, precious metals, and commodities. It offers insights into market trends, supply - demand dynamics, and valuation, and suggests corresponding investment strategies for each market [5][7][10]. Summary by Category Bonds - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Treasury bond futures closed higher across the board, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year contracts rising by 0.63%, 0.27%, 0.18%, and 0.09% respectively. The central bank conducted 455.4 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 159.5 billion yuan [5]. - **Outlook**: The current macro - data is stable, but market confidence in economic recovery is weak. The upward logic of Treasury bond futures is fully priced, and a downward trend requires economic recovery. It is expected that there will be no trend in the future, with increased volatility. Caution is advised [5]. Stock Indices - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed results. The CSI 300 (IF) and SSE 50 (IH) futures fell by 0.26% and 0.50% respectively, while the CSI 500 (IC) and CSI 1000 (IM) futures rose by 0.10% and 0.42% respectively [7]. - **Outlook**: The current macro - data is stable, which helps reverse the market's pessimistic expectations. More macro - support policies will be implemented, and the current valuation of major indices is low. It is still optimistic about the future trend of stock indices, and it is recommended to go long on stock index futures on dips [8]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the gold and silver futures rose by 0.32% and 1.42% respectively. The US February durable goods orders data was better than expected [10]. - **Outlook**: The Fed has paused rate cuts, and the future rate - cut rhythm is uncertain. The US has imposed tariffs on multiple countries, increasing market risk aversion. The medium - to - long - term logic of precious metals remains strong. It is recommended to hold existing long positions [10]. Steel and Related Products - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, steel and related product futures showed mixed trends. For example, iron ore futures fluctuated, and the spot prices of steel products were at certain levels [12][15]. - **Outlook**: For steel products, the real - estate downturn suppresses demand, but macro - policies and the upcoming peak season may support prices. For iron ore, the increase in demand and the decrease in port inventory support prices. It is recommended to buy at low levels and take profits on rebounds, with attention to position management [13][15]. Energy Products - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil rose, and fuel oil followed crude oil with high - level fluctuations. The CFTC data showed a reduction in net long positions in US crude oil futures, and the Baker Hughes data showed an increase in the number of oil and gas rigs [22]. - **Outlook**: The US - Russia negotiation ended without a joint statement, and the OPEC+ will increase production in April, but the compensation measures may offset the impact. Crude oil is expected to fluctuate and rebound. For fuel oil, the cost - end support and supply - demand factors need to be considered. It is recommended to take long positions in both crude oil and fuel oil futures [23][26]. Chemical Products - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, various chemical product futures showed different trends. For example, PVC futures fell slightly, and PX futures rose [36][40]. - **Outlook**: For different chemical products, the supply - demand situation varies. For example, PVC is expected to bottom out and rise, while urea is expected to fluctuate. Different investment strategies are recommended according to the specific situation of each product [36][38]. Agricultural Products - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, agricultural product futures also showed mixed trends. For example, soybean meal and soybean oil futures fell, while apple futures rose [67][81]. - **Outlook**: The supply and demand of agricultural products are affected by factors such as harvest, consumption, and policies. For example, Brazilian soybean harvest affects the prices of soybean meal and soybean oil, and the cancellation of a delivery warehouse affects apple futures. Different investment strategies are recommended for different products [67][81]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, non - ferrous metal futures showed different trends. For example, copper futures fell, while nickel futures rose [55][64]. - **Outlook**: The prices of non - ferrous metals are affected by factors such as macro - policies, supply - demand, and cost. For example, the Fed's interest - rate decision affects copper prices, and the Indonesian policy affects nickel prices. Different investment strategies are recommended for different products [55][64].

上海市浦东新区向城路 288 号 1101A； 021-61101856 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 2025 年 3 月 26 日星期三 地址： 电话： 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-67070250 | 碳酸锂： | | 16 | | --- | --- | --- | | 铜： | | 17 | | 铝： | | 17 | | 锌： | | 18 | | 铅： | | 18 | | 锡： | | 18 | | 镍： | | 19 | | 工业硅/多晶硅： | | 19 | | 豆油、豆粕： | | 20 | | 棕榈油： | | 20 | | 菜粕、菜油： | | 21 | | 棉花： | | 21 | | 白糖： | | 22 | | 苹果： | | 23 | | 生猪： | | 24 | | 鸡蛋： | | 24 | | 玉米： | | 25 | | 原木： | | 25 | | 免责声明 | | 27 | | | | 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明部分 | 国债： 上一交易日，，国债期货收盘全线上涨，30 年期主力合约涨 0.49%报 115.89 元， 10 年期主力合约涨 0 ...

期货从业证书号：F03116714 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0019298 1 期市有风险，投资需谨慎 2025 年 3 月 18 日 2025 年 1-2 月宏观数据跟踪和分析 研究员：万亮 邮箱：xnqh_wl@swfutures.com 1-2 月宏观数据是观察年初经济景气程度的主要依据，我们梳理了 1-2 月国 内重要的宏观经济数据，以增加对当前宏观经济运行节奏的理解。 整体上 1-2 月宏观数据保持平稳，消费和房地产领域显现出更多的积极信号。 制造业 PMI 季节性回升；物价回升力度偏弱，CPI 和 PPI 底部震荡；出口保持增 长；工业生产和消费增速回升；房地产市场销售同比降幅进一步收窄。2025 年政 府工作报告提出，今年发展主要预期目标是 GDP 增长 5%左右，实施更加积极的 财政政策，后续宏观政策仍有加码空间，有助于加快国内经济企稳复苏的进程。 一、制造业 PMI 季节性回升 2 月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为 50.2%，比上月上升 1.1 个百分点， 制造业景气水平明显回升。从企业规模看，大型企业 PMI 为 52.5%，比上月上升 2.6 个百分点，高于临界点；中、小型企业 PM ...

Economic Performance - July macroeconomic data remains weak, with overall recovery momentum needing strengthening[2] - Manufacturing PMI for July is at 49.4%, indicating three consecutive months below the critical line[3] - CPI in July shows a year-on-year increase of 0.5%, up from 0.2% in June, but the recovery strength is still weak[5] Trade and Investment - July exports grew by 7% year-on-year, below the expected 9.5%, while imports increased by 7.2%[8] - Fixed asset investment from January to July reached 287,611 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.6%[13] Financial Data - Social financing scale increased by 18.87 trillion yuan in the first seven months, down 3.22 trillion yuan from the previous year[9] - M1 decreased by 6.6% year-on-year, indicating weak consumer and business confidence[10] Real Estate Sector - Real estate development investment from January to July was 60,877 billion yuan, down 10.2% year-on-year[13] - New housing sales area decreased by 19% in the first half of the year, but the decline is expected to narrow due to lower year-on-year bases[14][17]

2024 年 8 月 2 日 鲍威尔暗示 9 月降息，市场定价年内降三次 ——美联储 7 月会议解读 期货从业证书号：F03116714 交易咨询证书号：Z0019298 研究员：万亮 邮箱：wl@swfutures.com 1 一、7 月美联储会议主要看点 北京时间 8 月 1 日凌晨 2 点，美联储联邦公开市场委员会宣布，将联邦基金 利率目标区间维持在 5.25%至 5.50%的水平不变。这是美联储连续第八次按下"暂 停键"，符合市场预期。 美联储在决议声明中表示，最近的指标表明，经济活动继续以稳健的步伐扩 张。就业增长有所放缓，失业率有所上升，但仍然较低。通货膨胀在过去一年中 有所缓解，但仍有点偏高。近几个月来，在实现委员会 2%的通胀目标方面又取得 了一些进展。此外，委员会将继续减持国债、机构债务和机构抵押贷款支持证券。 委员会坚定地致力于使通胀率回到 2% 的目标。 本次会议声明相比上次有三大变动，一是对经济描述有所降温，承认失业率 有所上升，对通胀降温的趋势表示肯定，第二是对实现充分就业和通胀双重目标 的风险趋向平衡也给与更为肯定的措辞，第三是删除"依旧高度关注通胀风险"， 新增强调"关注就业和物 ...