2024 年 6 月宏观数据跟踪和分析 1 6 月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为 49.5%，与上月持平，制造业景气度 基本稳定。从企业规模看，大型企业 PMI 为 50.1%，比上月下降 0.6 个百分点； 中、小型企业 PMI 分别为 49.8%和 47.4%，比上月上升 0.4 和 0.7 个百分点。 从分类指数看，在构成制造业 PMI 的 5 个分类指数中，生产指数高于临界点， 新订单指数、原材料库存指数、从业人员指数和供应商配送时间指数低于临界点。 生产指数为 50.6%，比上月下降 0.2 个百分点，高于临界点，表明制造业企业生 产保持扩张。新订单指数为 49.5%，比上月下降 0.1 个百分点，表明制造业市场 需求景气度略有下降。原材料库存指数为 47.6%，比上月下降 0.2 个百分点，表 明制造业主要原材料库存量继续减少。 二、6 月物价回升力度偏弱 4 2024 年 7 月 17 日 期货从业证书号：F03116714 交易咨询证书号：Z0019298 一、制造业 PMI 继续处在荣枯线以下，环比持平 2 整体来看，CPI 受制于国内需求不足，回升力度偏弱；PPI 受全球大宗商品 价格 ...

8 11 7 "517"新政后，房地产行业迎来了最为宽松的政策环境，包括降低首付比 2024 年 6 月 18 日 1 期货从业证书号：F03116714 交易咨询证书号：Z0019298 我们梳理了 5 月以来公布的国内重要的宏观经济数据，以增加对当前宏观经 济运行节奏的理解。5 月宏观数据整体有所回落，出口继续改善，物价温和回升， 但金融数据继续回落，消费复苏整体偏弱，房地产市场未见明显改善。整体上宏 观复苏动能仍待加强，市场预期依然偏弱，需要宏观政策加大支持力度，扩大有 效需求和稳定市场信心。 5 月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为 49.5%，比上月下降 0.9 个百分点， 制造业景气水平有所回落。从企业规模看，大型企业 PMI 为 50.7%，比上月上升 0.4 个百分点；中、小型企业 PMI 为 49.4%和 46.7%，比上月下降 1.3 和 3.6 个百 分点。 5 月制造业 PMI 有所回落，符合季节性，但回落力度偏大，表明经济复苏仍 然面临需求不足的制约。 二、5 月物价延续回升，但回升力度偏弱 3 5 月进出口均保持了较高增速。中国 5 月出口（以人民币计价）同比增 11.2%， 前值 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve Meeting Highlights - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 5.25% to 5.50%, marking the seventh consecutive pause in rate hikes[1] - The Fed lowered the 2024 economic growth forecast by 0.1% to 2% and raised the core PCE inflation forecast by 0.2% to 2.8%[1] - The median expectation for the policy rate in 2026 remains at 3%-3.25%[1] Group 2: Economic Predictions and Market Reactions - The Fed's dot plot indicates a reduction in expected rate cuts from three to one for 2024, with the median policy rate rising from 4.6% to 5.1%[5] - The U.S. economy is showing signs of slowing, with May non-farm payrolls increasing by 272,000, exceeding the market expectation of 190,000[12] - The May CPI data showed a year-on-year increase of 3.3%, slightly below the expected 3.4%, indicating a cooling inflation trend[14] Group 3: Asset Price Movements - Following the Fed's meeting, U.S. stock indices experienced volatility, with the Dow Jones falling by 0.09% and the S&P 500 rising by 0.85%[11] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield dropped to approximately 4.32%, down about 8 basis points after the CPI release[11] - Gold prices initially surged over 1% but later retraced gains, indicating cautious market sentiment[11] Group 4: Future Economic and Policy Outlook - The Fed faces a balancing act between strong labor market data and persistent inflation, with risks of both premature rate cuts and delayed action[18] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September exceeds 60%, with December showing a 28% chance for one cut and a 44% chance for two cuts[18] - The outlook for major asset classes includes a potential decline in U.S. 10-year Treasury yields below 4% if rate cuts materialize as expected[22]

1 期货从业证书号：F03116714 交易咨询证书号：Z0019298 摘要/观点: 一、制造业 PMI 继续处在荣枯线以上，新订单和新出口订单显著改善 2 生产指数为 52.9%，比上月上升 0.7 个百分点，表明制造业企业生产活动继 续加快。新订单指数为 51.1%，比上月下降 1.9 个百分点，继续高于临界点，表 明制造业市场需求保持恢复。 二、4 月物价延续回升，但 PPI 回升力度偏弱 3 2024 年 5 月 20 日 研究员：万亮 邮箱：wl@swfutures.com 我们梳理了 5 月以来公布的国内重要的宏观经济数据，以增加对当前宏观经 济运行节奏的理解。4 月宏观数据仍然延续分化格局，出口继续改善，物价温和 回升，但金融数据大幅回落，消费复苏依然偏弱，房地产下行压力仍大。整体上 宏观经济运行平稳，但复苏动能仍待加强，需要宏观政策加大支持力度，扩大有 效需求和稳定市场信心。 4 月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为 50.4%，比上月下降 0.4 个百分点， 连续两个月位于扩张区间，制造业继续保持恢复发展态势。从企业规模看，大型 企业 PMI 为 50.3%，比上月下降 0.8 个百分点； ...

Interest Rate Decisions - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 5.25%-5.5%, with plans to reduce $60 billion in Treasury bonds and $35 billion in MBS monthly, aligning with market expectations[2] - The dot plot indicates an expectation of 2-3 rate cuts in 2024, with a total reduction of 75 basis points anticipated[3] Economic Projections - The GDP growth forecast for 2024 was raised by 0.7 percentage points to 2.1%, with 2025 and 2026 also seeing slight upward adjustments[3] - The unemployment rate for 2024 is projected to decrease by 0.1 percentage points to 4.0%, with long-term expectations remaining at 4.1%[5] Inflation Outlook - The PCE inflation rate for 2024 is expected to remain at 2.4%, while the core PCE inflation forecast was increased by 0.2 percentage points to 2.6%[6] Fed Chair's Commentary - Chair Powell expressed a dovish stance, emphasizing the need for more data on service price declines as a potential signal for rate cuts[6] - Despite strong economic growth, Powell highlighted the risks of inflation accelerating again due to resilient economic conditions[8] Market Expectations - The market's probability of a rate cut in June has increased, with a 90.3% chance of maintaining rates in May and a 69.4% chance of a cut in June[11] - Overall, the market anticipates a total of 75 basis points in rate cuts throughout the year[11] Gold Market Sentiment - Positive sentiment in the precious metals market is noted, driven by Fed policy expectations and increased investor risk aversion, supporting higher gold prices[15]

2024 年初的宏观经济数据分析 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款 2 2024 年 3 月 20 日 研究员：万亮 邮箱：wl@swfutures.com 期货从业证书号：F03116714 交易咨询证书号：Z0019298 由于春节的原因，中国月度宏观数据基本上 1-2 月联合发布。因此，3 开始陆续 公布的宏观数据，成为判断年初经济运行节奏和政策取向的重要参考。我们梳理了 3 月以来公布的国内重要的宏观经济数据，力求增加对年初宏观经济景气度的理解。 一、制造业 PMI 强于季节性 中国 2 月官方制造业 PMI 为 49.1，环比下降 0.1 个百分点，预期及前值均为 49.2。 中国 2 月官方非制造业 PMI 为 51.4，预期 50.7，环比上升 0.7 个百分点。我国经济 总体延续扩张态势。 2 月份，由于春节假日因素影响，制造业处于传统生产淡季，制造业市场活跃度 总体有所下降；非制造业扩张步伐继续加快，表明我国企业生产经营活动总体继续扩 张。考虑到季节性因素和 1 月制造业 PMI 环比回升 0.2 个百分点，2 月制造业 PMI 显 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款 3 示，宏观经济有所改善。 其中 ...