Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The external environment is favorable for Treasury bond futures, but current Treasury bond yields are at a relatively low level. It is recommended to maintain a certain degree of caution as the Chinese economy shows a steady recovery trend and there is room for domestic demand policies to exert force [6]. - It is not advisable to be overly bearish on the Chinese equity market. After event shocks, the Chinese economy and Chinese assets will still operate according to their own laws. The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and investors should wait for long - entry opportunities [9]. - The long - term value of gold is still optimistic, and investors should wait for long - entry opportunities as the long - term upward logic remains strong [11][13]. - For steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coils, investors can focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds, take profits in time, and pay attention to position management [14]. - For iron ore, investors can focus on long - entry opportunities at low levels, take profits on rebounds, and stop losses if the previous low is broken, while paying attention to position management [16]. - For coking coal and coke, investors can focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds, take profits in time, and pay attention to position management [17]. - For ferroalloys, investors can consider long - entry opportunities for out - of - the - money call options on ferromanganese silicon at low levels and short - sellers of ferrosilicon can consider exiting at the bottom range [20]. - For crude oil, it is recommended to take a short - biased operation on the main contract [22][23]. - For fuel oil, it is recommended to take a short - biased operation on the main contract [24][25]. - For synthetic rubber, it should be treated with a sideways trading mindset [26][28]. - For natural rubber, the price is expected to maintain a weak sideways trend [29][30]. - For PVC, the price is expected to maintain a bottom - sideways trend [31][33]. - For urea, the price is expected to be weak in the short term [34][35]. - For PX, it is expected to follow the cost side for sideways adjustment, and interval trading is recommended [36][37]. - For PTA, the price is expected to trade sideways in the short term, and interval trading is recommended [38]. - For ethylene glycol, the price is expected to trade sideways at the bottom in the short term, and cautious participation is recommended [39][40]. - For staple fiber, it will follow the cost side for short - term sideways adjustment, and cautious participation is recommended [41]. - For bottle chips, the price is expected to follow the cost side for sideways movement, and attention should be paid to cost price changes [42]. - For soda ash, the market will continue to be weak in the short term [45]. - For glass, the market sentiment is expected to be dominated by weakness [46]. - For caustic soda, the price of Shandong liquid caustic soda is likely to weaken slightly in the short term [48]. - For pulp, the supply is increasing rapidly, and the market is pessimistic [49][50]. - For lithium carbonate, the price is expected to be weak [51]. - For copper, the price trend is expected to be strong, and a long - biased operation on the main contract is recommended [53][54]. - For tin, the price is expected to trade sideways in the short term, and risk control is necessary [55]. - For nickel, short - term risk control is necessary, and cautious waiting and watching are recommended [56][57]. - For industrial silicon and polysilicon, the fundamentals remain weak, and a bearish outlook is maintained [58][59]. - For soybean oil and soybean meal, it is recommended to wait and watch for soybean meal, and investors can focus on out - of - the - money call options on soybean oil at the bottom support range [60][61]. - For palm oil, it is recommended to wait and watch temporarily [62][63]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, investors can consider the opportunity to expand the spread after the soybean - rapeseed spread narrows [63][64]. - For cotton, after a rebound, short - selling of far - month contracts at high prices is recommended [65][66]. - For sugar, it is recommended to wait and watch [68][70]. - For apples, after a pullback, long - entry at low prices is recommended [72][74]. - For live pigs, after taking profits, investors should wait and watch [75][76]. - For eggs, investors can focus on reverse spread opportunities [77][78]. - For corn and corn starch, it is recommended to wait and watch temporarily [79][80]. - For logs, the market has no obvious driving force, and the spot price has a weak support for the futures price [81][83]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Treasury Bonds - The previous trading day saw all Treasury bond futures closing higher. The central bank conducted 340.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 120 billion yuan. The weighted average interest rate of newly issued commercial personal housing loans in Q1 2025 was 3.11% [5]. - The external environment is favorable for Treasury bond futures, but yields are low. The Chinese economy shows a steady recovery, and it is recommended to be cautious [6]. - The volatility is expected to increase, and caution should be maintained [7]. Stock Index Futures - The previous trading day saw mixed performance in stock index futures. As of the end of March, the custody balance of overseas institutions in the Chinese bond market was 4.4 trillion yuan [8][9]. - The domestic economy is stable, but tariffs disrupt the recovery rhythm. The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is optimistic, and investors should wait for long - entry opportunities [9]. Precious Metals - The previous trading day saw gold and silver futures rising. In Q1 2025, the domestic gold ETF holdings increased by 23.47 tons, and the gold consumption decreased by 5.96% year - on - year [11]. - The long - term value of gold is optimistic, and investors should wait for long - entry opportunities as the long - term upward logic remains strong [11][13]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - The previous trading day saw rebar and hot - rolled coil futures weakly oscillating. The real - estate downturn suppresses rebar prices, but short - term peak - season demand may support prices. The valuation is low, and there may be short - selling opportunities on rebounds [14]. Iron Ore - The previous trading day saw iron ore futures oscillating. The increase in iron ore demand and the decrease in supply support the price. The valuation is high, and there may be long - entry opportunities at low levels [16]. Coking Coal and Coke - The previous trading day saw coking coal and coke futures continuing to correct. The supply of coking coal is loose, and the demand for coke is improving slightly. There may be short - selling opportunities on rebounds [17]. Ferroalloys - The previous trading day saw manganese silicon and ferrosilicon futures falling. The supply of manganese ore is disturbed, and the demand for ferroalloys is weak. There may be opportunities for out - of - the - money call options on ferromanganese silicon at low levels [19][20]. Crude Oil - The previous trading day saw INE crude oil dropping significantly. Market concerns about OPEC's production increase and other factors put pressure on the price. A short - biased operation is recommended [21][23]. Fuel Oil - The previous trading day saw fuel oil dropping significantly following crude oil. The Asian fuel oil market may strengthen, but there are still supply and demand issues. A short - biased operation is recommended [24][25]. Synthetic Rubber - The previous trading day saw synthetic rubber futures falling. The supply pressure persists, and the demand improvement is limited. It is expected to trade sideways [26][28]. Natural Rubber - The previous trading day saw natural rubber futures falling. The global supply is expected to increase, and the demand is affected by tariffs. The price is expected to be weak [29][30]. PVC - The previous trading day saw PVC futures falling. The supply pressure eases marginally, and the demand recovers weakly. The price is expected to trade sideways at the bottom [31][33]. Urea - The previous trading day saw urea futures falling. The agricultural demand will decline seasonally in May, and the supply pressure will increase. The price is expected to be weak in the short term [34][35]. PX - The previous trading day saw PX futures falling. The PX load decreases slightly, and the downstream PTA start - up rate increases. The short - term crude oil price is under pressure, and PX is expected to follow the cost side for adjustment [36][37]. PTA - The previous trading day saw PTA futures falling. The PTA load increases, and the polyester load rises slightly. The cost support is insufficient, and the price is expected to trade sideways [38]. Ethylene Glycol - The previous trading day saw ethylene glycol futures oscillating. The coal - based plants are restarting, and the inventory is high. The price is expected to trade sideways at the bottom [39][40]. Short Fiber - The previous trading day saw short - fiber futures rising. The short - fiber device load is at a relatively high level, and the downstream demand is weak. It will follow the cost side for adjustment [41]. Bottle Chips - The previous trading day saw bottle - chip futures falling. The raw material price is under pressure, and the supply and demand fundamentals lack driving force. The price is expected to follow the cost side [42]. Soda Ash - The previous trading day saw soda ash futures rising slightly. The supply remains high, and the demand is weak. The market is expected to be weak in the short term [43][45]. Glass - The previous trading day saw glass futures falling. The production line is at a low level, and the inventory changes little. The market sentiment is weak [46]. Caustic Soda - The previous trading day saw caustic soda futures falling. The production of downstream alumina is fluctuating, and the non - aluminum demand is weak. The price of Shandong liquid caustic soda is expected to weaken slightly [47][48]. Pulp - The previous trading day saw pulp futures falling. The inventory accumulates, and the supply increases rapidly. The market is pessimistic [49][50]. Lithium Carbonate - The previous trading day saw lithium carbonate futures falling. The supply is high, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to be weak [51]. Copper - The previous trading day saw Shanghai copper oscillating slightly. The spot market is stable, and the price is expected to be strong. A long - biased operation is recommended [52][54]. Tin - The previous trading day saw tin futures falling slightly. The supply is affected by various factors, and the demand is good. The price is expected to trade sideways in the short term [55]. Nickel - The previous trading day saw nickel futures falling slightly. The supply is tightened, and the cost is supported, but the demand may weaken. Short - term risk control is necessary [56][57]. Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon - The previous trading day saw industrial silicon and polysilicon futures falling significantly. The supply - demand imbalance persists, and the price is expected to be weak [58][59]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - The previous trading day saw soybean oil and soybean meal futures falling. The US soybean planting rate is slightly faster, and the Brazilian soybean is in a record - high harvest. It is recommended to wait and watch for soybean meal and focus on out - of - the money call options on soybean oil at the bottom [60][61]. Palm Oil - The previous trading day saw palm oil futures falling. The Malaysian palm oil inventory may increase, and the export is growing. It is recommended to wait and watch temporarily [62][63]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The previous trading day saw rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil futures falling. China has imposed tariffs on Canadian rapeseed products. Investors can consider the opportunity to expand the spread after the soybean - rapeseed spread narrows [63][64]. Cotton - The previous trading day saw domestic cotton futures falling slightly. The US cotton planting rate is increasing, and the Chinese textile export is weak. After a rebound, short - selling of far - month contracts at high prices is recommended [65][66]. Sugar - The previous trading day saw domestic sugar futures oscillating. The Brazilian sugar is starting to be squeezed, and the Indian sugar production is lower than expected. It is recommended to wait and watch [68][70]. Apples - The previous trading day saw apple futures oscillating. The inventory is low, and the consumption is good. After a pullback, long - entry at low prices is recommended [72][74]. Live Pigs - The previous trading day saw live - pig futures falling. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. After taking profits, investors should wait and watch [75][76]. Eggs - The previous trading day saw egg futures rising slightly. The egg production is increasing, and the cost is high. Investors can focus on reverse spread opportunities [77][78]. Corn and Corn Starch - The previous trading day saw corn and corn starch futures rising slightly. The US corn planting rate is normal, and the domestic supply is under pressure. It is recommended to wait and watch temporarily [79][80]. Logs - The previous trading day saw log futures falling. The arrival of logs is decreasing, and the inventory is relatively stable. The market has no obvious driving force [81][83].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is affected by factors such as tariffs, geopolitical risks, and macro - policy adjustments. Different industries show various trends, and investors are advised to adopt different strategies according to the characteristics of each industry [6][9][11] Summary by Related Catalogs Bonds - **Treasury Bonds**: On the previous trading day, most treasury bond futures closed higher. The central bank conducted 279 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 103 billion yuan. The external environment is favorable for treasury bond futures, but yields are relatively low. It is expected that the volatility will increase, and caution is advised [5][6][7] Stocks - **Stock Index Futures**: On the previous trading day, stock index futures fluctuated slightly. Although tariffs disrupt the domestic economic recovery rhythm and global recession risks increase, domestic asset valuations are low, and policies have hedging space. It is still optimistic about the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets, waiting for long - entry opportunities [8][9][10] Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: On the previous trading day, gold and silver futures prices declined. In Q1 2025, China's domestic gold ETF holdings increased. The complex global trade and financial environment and tariff disturbances are expected to drive up the gold price. It is still optimistic about the long - term value of gold, waiting for long - entry opportunities [11][12] Metals - **Steel Products (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil)**: On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures oscillated weakly. The downward trend of the real estate industry suppresses prices, but the peak demand season may provide short - term support. The valuation is low, and there are signs of technical support. Investors can focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds [13][14] - **Iron Ore**: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures pulled back slightly. The increase in iron ore demand and the decrease in supply and inventory support prices. The valuation is relatively high. Investors can focus on long - entry opportunities at low levels [16] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures continued to decline. The supply of coking coal is loose, and the transaction atmosphere has weakened. The shipment of coke has improved, but the possibility of price increases is reduced. There are signs of a technical bottom. Investors can focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds [18][19] - **Ferroalloys**: On the previous trading day, manganese silicon and silicon iron futures declined. The supply of manganese ore may be disturbed, and the demand for ferroalloys is weak. The high inventory exerts pressure. With the arrival of the peak demand season for steel, the demand for ferroalloys is expected to pick up. Investors can consider relevant option opportunities [21][22] - **Copper**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper rebounded after reaching the bottom. The market expects policies to stabilize the market and promote economic growth. The copper price is expected to be strong, and long - entry operations are recommended [55][56] - **Tin**: On the previous trading day, tin prices declined. The supply and demand fundamentals are affected by multiple factors, and the price is expected to oscillate. Risk control is required in the short term [57][58] - **Nickel**: On the previous trading day, nickel prices rose. The supply of ore is tightened, providing cost support, but the demand may weaken in the off - season. The price is affected by macro - pessimistic sentiment, and caution is advised in the short term [59] - **Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon**: On the previous trading day, the prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon futures declined. The supply - demand imbalance persists, and the prices are expected to be weak. Short - selling operations on rebounds can be considered [60][61] Energy - **Crude Oil**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil oscillated upward. The geopolitical situation is complex, and the resistance of Brent crude at $70 is strong. It is recommended to wait and see [23][24][25] - **Fuel Oil**: On the previous trading day, fuel oil followed crude oil and oscillated higher. The supply of high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be tight, but the inventory in Singapore has increased significantly. It is recommended to wait and see [26][27] Chemicals - **Synthetic Rubber**: On the previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures rose slightly. The supply pressure persists, the demand improvement is limited, and the cost is stable. It is expected to oscillate [28][29] - **Natural Rubber**: On the previous trading day, natural rubber futures declined. The global supply is expected to increase, and the demand is affected by tariffs. It is expected to be weak and oscillate [30][31][32] - **PVC**: On the previous trading day, PVC futures rose slightly. The supply pressure eases marginally, and the demand recovers weakly. It is expected to oscillate at the bottom [33][34][35] - **Urea**: On the previous trading day, urea futures rose. The agricultural demand will decline seasonally in May, and the supply pressure will increase. It is expected to be weak in the short term [36][37][38] - **PX**: On the previous trading day, PX futures rose. The PX load decreased due to maintenance, and the downstream demand improved. The short - term support from crude oil is limited. It is expected to oscillate with the cost [39] - **PTA**: On the previous trading day, PTA futures rose. The supply load increased, and the demand was affected by tariffs. The cost support was insufficient. It is expected to oscillate [40][41] - **Ethylene Glycol**: On the previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures rose. The supply load increased, the inventory was high, and the demand was affected by tariffs. It is expected to oscillate at the bottom [42] - **Short - Fiber**: On the previous trading day, short - fiber futures rose. The supply load decreased slightly, the demand was weak, and the cost support was insufficient. It is expected to oscillate with the cost [43][44] - **Bottle Chips**: On the previous trading day, bottle - chip futures rose. The cost support improved, the supply load increased, and the demand recovered. It is expected to oscillate with the cost [45] - **Soda Ash**: On the previous trading day, soda ash futures declined. The supply is high, the new orders are average, and the downstream demand is weak. It is expected to be weak in the short term [46][47][48] - **Glass**: On the previous trading day, glass futures declined. The production line is at a low level, the inventory changes little, and the demand is affected by tariffs. The market sentiment is expected to be weak [49] - **Caustic Soda**: On the previous trading day, caustic soda futures declined. The production decreased slightly, the downstream demand was weak, and the price is expected to decline slightly in the short term [50][51] - **Pulp**: On the previous trading day, pulp futures declined. The inventory increased, the downstream start - up was mixed, and the market was light. It is expected to oscillate at a relatively low level [52] - **Lithium Carbonate**: On the previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures declined. The supply is high, the demand is weak, and the inventory increases. It is expected to be weak [53][54] Agricultural Products - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: On the previous trading day, soybean oil and soybean meal futures declined. The supply of soybeans is expected to be loose, the demand for soybean oil and soybean meal is expected to increase slightly. It is recommended to wait and see for soybean meal and consider call option opportunities for soybean oil [62][63] - **Palm Oil**: On the previous trading day, palm oil futures declined. The production is expected to increase, the inventory may rise, and the export has increased. It is recommended to wait and see [64][65][66] - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The price of Canadian rapeseed fluctuated slightly. China has imposed tariffs on Canadian rapeseed products. The inventory of rapeseed and rapeseed meal decreased, and the inventory of rapeseed oil increased. Investors can consider the opportunity to expand the spread between soybean and rapeseed products [67][68] - **Cotton**: On the previous trading day, domestic cotton futures oscillated. The planting area in Xinjiang has increased, and the weather is a key factor. The textile and clothing export is affected by tariffs. It is recommended to short - sell on rebounds in the long term [69][70][71] - **Sugar**: On the previous trading day, domestic sugar futures fluctuated. The sugar production in India is lower than expected, and Brazil is gradually starting to crush. The domestic industrial inventory is neutral, and the import volume is low. It is recommended to wait and see [73][74] - **Apple**: On the previous trading day, apple futures declined significantly. The inventory is low, the consumption is good, and the spot price is strong. It is recommended to go long on dips [75][76] - **Pig**: On the previous trading day, pig futures declined slightly. The supply is sufficient, the consumption is in the off - season, and the price is expected to decline. Attention should be paid to taking profits on short positions [77][78] - **Egg**: On the previous trading day, egg futures declined. The egg supply is expected to increase, the consumption is in the off - season, and the feed cost may rise in the long term. Attention should be paid to reverse - spread opportunities [79][80] - **Corn and Corn Starch**: On the previous trading day, corn and corn starch futures rose. The supply of corn is expected to be slightly less surplus, the demand is expected to increase, and the inventory is high. Corn starch follows the corn market. It is recommended to wait and see [81][82][83] - **Log**: On the previous trading day, log futures declined. The arrival of logs decreased, the inventory was relatively stable, and the market was light. There is no obvious driving force in the fundamentals [84][85]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes various commodities including bonds, stocks, precious metals, and industrial and agricultural products, providing market trends, influencing factors, and investment strategies for each [5][8][10]. - Overall, the market is affected by factors such as tariffs, economic policies, and supply - demand relationships, with different commodities showing different trends and investment opportunities [6][8][22]. Summary by Commodity Bonds - Last trading day, most bond futures closed higher. The central bank conducted 159.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 91 billion yuan. The government plans to implement more active fiscal and monetary policies [5]. - Although external environment is favorable for bond futures, current bond yields are relatively low. China's economy shows a stable recovery trend, so it is recommended to be cautious [6]. - It is expected that the fluctuation range will increase, and caution should be maintained [7]. Stocks - Last trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. Although tariffs disrupt the domestic economic recovery rhythm and global recession risk increases, domestic asset valuations are low and policies have hedging space [8]. - It is still optimistic about the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets and suggests waiting for long - entry opportunities [9]. Precious Metals - Last trading day, gold and silver futures prices declined. The US consumer confidence index and inflation expectations have certain impacts [10]. - The complex global trade and financial environment, potential monetary policy easing, and tariff environment are expected to drive up the price of gold. It is still optimistic about the long - term value of gold, and it is recommended to take profit on previous long positions and wait for new long - entry opportunities [10][11]. Industrial Metals - **Steel Products (including rebar, hot - rolled coil)**: Last trading day, prices slightly declined. The real - estate industry's downturn suppresses demand, but the peak demand season may provide short - term support. Valuations are low, and there are signs of technical support. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds [12]. - **Iron Ore**: Last trading day, prices slightly adjusted. The increase in iron ore demand and the decrease in supply and inventory support prices. Valuations are relatively high. It is recommended to look for long - entry opportunities at low levels [14]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Last trading day, prices slightly declined. Coking coal supply is loose, while coke demand has improved to some extent. There are signs of a technical bottom. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds [16]. - **Ferroalloys**: Last trading day, prices declined. Manganese ore supply may be disrupted, and the supply - demand situation of ferroalloys is gradually improving. It is recommended to consider call options on manganese silicon and short - covering opportunities on silicon iron [18][19]. - **Copper**: Last trading day, prices rose. The cooling of tariff disputes and the possibility of a Fed rate cut in June support prices. It is expected that prices will be strong, and long - entry operations are recommended [48][49]. - **Tin**: Last trading day, prices declined. Affected by tariffs, price fluctuations have intensified. The supply side has both positive and negative factors, and demand is good. It is expected that prices will fluctuate, and risk control is needed [50][51]. - **Nickel**: Last trading day, prices declined. Affected by tariffs, the market sentiment is pessimistic. The supply side has cost support, but demand may weaken in the off - season. It is recommended to control risks and wait and see [52]. - **Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon**: Last trading day, prices declined. The supply - demand imbalance persists, and costs are expected to decrease. It is recommended to short - sell at high levels on rebounds [53][55]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Last trading day, prices fluctuated upward. The increase in net long positions of speculators and the increase in the number of oil and gas rigs are noteworthy. The Sino - US negotiation and OPEC's production policy are uncertain. It is recommended to wait and see [20][23]. - **Fuel Oil**: Last trading day, prices followed crude oil and fluctuated higher. The high - sulfur fuel oil market may enter the peak demand season, and the low - sulfur fuel oil market is stable. Due to the sanctions on Russia, the supply of high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be tight. It is recommended to wait and see [24][25]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Last trading day, prices rose. Supply pressure persists, demand improvement is limited, and costs are stable. It is expected that prices will fluctuate [26][28]. - **Natural Rubber**: Last trading day, prices showed mixed performance. The supply is expected to increase, and demand is affected by tariffs. It is expected that prices will be weakly volatile [29][30]. - **PVC**: Last trading day, prices declined. Supply pressure eases, demand recovers weakly, and inventory removal is slow. It is expected that prices will fluctuate at the bottom [31][33]. - **Urea**: Last trading day, prices declined. Agricultural demand will weaken seasonally, and new production capacity will be released. It is expected that prices will be weakly volatile in the short term [34][35]. - **PX**: Last trading day, prices rose. PX device maintenance reduces supply, and downstream demand improves. Affected by crude oil prices, it is expected that prices will fluctuate with the cost side [36][37]. - **PTA**: Last trading day, prices rose. Supply increases, demand improvement is less than expected, and costs provide support. It is expected that prices will fluctuate with the cost side [38]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Last trading day, prices declined. Supply increases, inventory removal is difficult, and demand is affected by tariffs. It is expected that prices will fluctuate at the bottom [39][40]. - **Short - Fiber**: Last trading day, prices rose. Supply is at a relatively high level, demand is weak, and costs provide limited support. It is expected that prices will fluctuate with the cost side [41]. - **Bottle Chips**: Last trading day, prices rose. Raw material prices recover, supply increases slightly, and demand improves. It is expected that prices will fluctuate with the cost side [42]. - **Soda Ash**: Last trading day, prices declined. Supply remains high, demand is weak, and inventory removal is slow. It is expected that the market will remain weak in the short term [43]. - **Glass**: Last trading day, prices declined. Production lines are at a low level, inventory changes little, and demand is affected by tariffs. It is expected that the market sentiment will be weak [44]. - **Caustic Soda**: Last trading day, prices declined. Some large - scale devices are under maintenance, demand from the alumina industry is limited, and the market turns weak again [45]. - **Pulp**: Last trading day, prices declined slightly. Inventory accumulates, downstream start - up rates vary, and the market is weak and volatile [46]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: Last trading day, soybean meal prices declined, and soybean oil prices rose. Argentine weather is favorable for soybean harvesting, and domestic soybean supply is expected to be loose. It is recommended to wait and see for soybean meal and consider call options on soybean oil at the bottom [56][57]. - **Palm Oil**: Malaysian palm oil prices rose. Domestic imports increase, and inventory accumulates. It is recommended to wait and see [58][60]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: Canadian rapeseed prices rose. China has imposed tariffs on Canadian rapeseed products. Inventory shows different trends. It is recommended to consider the opportunity to expand the spread between soybean and rapeseed products [61][62]. - **Cotton**: Last trading day, prices fluctuated. The spring sowing of Xinjiang cotton is almost completed, and weather is a key factor. Textile exports are affected by tariffs. It is recommended to short - sell at high levels on rebounds in the long - term [63][68]. - **Sugar**: Last trading day, domestic sugar prices rose slightly, and international sugar prices rose significantly. Indian sugar production is lower than expected, and domestic supply pressure is not large. It is recommended to wait and see [70][72]. - **Apple**: Last trading day, prices rose significantly. Inventory is low, consumption is good, and spot prices are strong. It is recommended to go long at low levels after corrections [74][75]. - **Pig**: Last trading day, prices declined. Supply increases, consumption is in the off - season, and prices are expected to decline in the short term. It is recommended to take profit on previous short positions [76][78]. - **Egg**: Last trading day, prices were stable. Egg supply is expected to increase, and consumption is in the off - season. It is recommended to pay attention to reverse spread opportunities [79][80]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: Last trading day, prices rose. Corn supply is still under pressure in the short term, but the bottom is supported. Corn starch follows the corn market. It is recommended to wait and see [81][83]. - **Log**: Last trading day, prices rose. Log prices decline, inventory is relatively neutral, and the real - estate market is in the destocking cycle. The spot market provides weak support for the futures market [84][85].

2025 年 4 月 25 日星期五 地址： 电话： 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-67070250 上海市浦东新区向城路 288 号 1101A； 021-61101856 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 | 尿素： | | 11 | | --- | --- | --- | | 对二甲苯 | PX： | 11 | | PTA： | | 12 | | 乙二醇： | | 12 | | 短纤： | | 13 | | 瓶片： | | 13 | | 纯碱： | | 13 | | 玻璃： | | 14 | | 烧碱： | | 14 | | 纸浆： | | 15 | | 碳酸锂： | | 15 | | 铜： | | 16 | | --- | --- | --- | | 锡： | | 16 | | 镍： | | 17 | | 工业硅/多晶硅： | | 17 | | 豆油、豆粕： | | 17 | | 棕榈油： | | 18 | | 菜粕、菜油： | | 19 | | 棉花： | | 19 | | 白糖： | | 20 | | 苹果： | | 21 | | 生猪： | | 22 | | 鸡蛋： | | 22 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information indicating the overall industry investment ratings in the report. Core Views - The external environment is favorable for Treasury bond futures, but considering the relatively low current Treasury bond yields and China's economic recovery potential, it is recommended to maintain a certain degree of caution [6]. - It is not advisable to be overly bearish on China's equity market. After event shocks, China's economy and assets will still operate according to their own laws, and the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic [10]. - The long - term value of gold is still promising. It is advisable to temporarily take profit on previous long positions and wait for opportunities to go long [14]. - For various commodities, different trading strategies are proposed based on their supply - demand fundamentals, valuation, and technical aspects, such as short - term trading, waiting for opportunities, or temporary observation in the face of complex market conditions. Summary by Category Treasury Bonds - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, Treasury bond futures closed down across the board, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year主力 contracts down 0.40%, 0.17%, 0.13%, and 0.04% respectively [5]. - **Analysis**: The external environment is favorable, but yields are low. China's economy shows a stable recovery trend, so it is recommended to be cautious. It is expected that the volatility will increase [6][7]. Stock Index Futures - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed results. The CSI 300, SSE 50, and CSI 500 futures主力 contracts were down 0.16%, 0.53%, and 0.04% respectively, while the CSI 1000 futures主力 contract was up 0.65% [8]. - **Analysis**: Although the current domestic economy is stable, tariffs disrupt the recovery rhythm. However, due to low domestic asset valuations and policy hedging space, it is not advisable to be overly bearish on the Chinese equity market. The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic [10]. Precious Metals - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the gold主力 contract closed at 784.28, down 5.67%, and the silver主力 contract closed at 8,199, up 0.31% [12]. - **Analysis**: The long - term value of gold is still promising. Temporarily take profit on previous long positions and wait for opportunities to go long [14]. Steel Products (Ribbed Bars, Hot - Rolled Coils) - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, ribbed bar and hot - rolled coil futures rebounded slightly. The spot prices of billets, ribbed bars, and hot - rolled coils are in specific ranges [16]. - **Analysis**: The downward trend of the real estate industry suppresses prices, but short - term seasonal demand may support prices. The valuation is low, and there is support at the previous low. Investors can focus on shorting opportunities on rebounds and pay attention to position management [16]. Iron Ore - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures rebounded significantly. The spot prices of PB powder and super - special powder are given [18]. - **Analysis**: The increase in demand and the decrease in supply support prices. The valuation is relatively high in the black series. Investors can focus on buying at low levels and take profit on rebounds [18]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures rebounded sharply [21]. - **Analysis**: The supply of coking coal is loose, and the demand for coke has improved. The spot price increase is limited. There are signs of a stop - fall. Investors can focus on shorting opportunities on rebounds [21]. Ferroalloys - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the manganese - silicon主力 contract rose 0.82%, and the silicon - iron主力 contract rose 0.32%. The spot prices are stable [23]. - **Analysis**: The demand for ferroalloys is weak, and the supply is still high. The supply - demand imbalance is gradually improving. Consider opportunities for out - of - the - money call options on manganese - silicon and short - covering opportunities for silicon - iron [24]. Crude Oil - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil rose significantly [25]. - **Analysis**: The macro - level changes are large, and the geopolitical risks are high. The resistance of Brent crude at $70 is strong. It is recommended to temporarily observe [26][27]. Fuel Oil - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, fuel oil rose significantly, following crude oil [28]. - **Analysis**: The macro - level changes are large, and the cost of crude oil drives the price up. The supply of high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be tight, and the trend is expected to be volatile and bullish. It is recommended to temporarily observe [28][29]. Synthetic Rubber - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the synthetic rubber主力 contract rose 2.96%, and the mainstream price in Shandong was stable [30]. - **Analysis**: The supply pressure persists, and the demand improvement is limited. It is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend [30][32]. Natural Rubber - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the natural rubber主力 contract and 20 - rubber主力 contract rose slightly, and the Shanghai spot price increased [33]. - **Analysis**: The global supply is expected to increase, and the demand is affected by tariffs. It is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend [33][34]. PVC - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PVC主力 contract rose 0.60%, and the spot price was basically stable [35]. - **Analysis**: The supply pressure eases marginally, and the demand recovers weakly. The market is expected to be volatile [35]. Urea - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the urea主力 contract fell 0.56%, and the price in Shandong Linyi decreased [38]. - **Analysis**: The agricultural demand is off - season, the new production capacity is released, and the inventory increases. It is expected to be weak in the short term [38][39]. PX - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PX2509主力 contract rose 2.91%, and the spreads decreased [40]. - **Analysis**: The PX devices are under maintenance, the downstream PTA starts to decline, and the cost support is enhanced. It is expected to adjust with the cost and operate cautiously [40][41]. PTA - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PTA2509主力 contract rose 2.51%, and the price in the East China market is given [42]. - **Analysis**: The supply and demand fundamentals have little contradiction, and the external crude oil price strengthens. It is expected to run volatilely and operate following the cost [42]. Ethylene Glycol - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the ethylene glycol主力 contract rose 1.27%, and the price in the East China market is given [43]. - **Analysis**: The coal - based devices are under maintenance, the supply is reduced, but the high inventory limits the rebound. It is expected to run at the bottom and operate cautiously [43][45]. Short - Fiber - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the short - fiber 2506主力 contract rose 1.94% [46]. - **Analysis**: The downstream demand is weak, and the cost support is improved. It is expected to adjust with the cost and operate cautiously [46]. Bottle Chips - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the bottle - chip 2506主力 contract rose 1.68% [47]. - **Analysis**: The raw material price recovers, and the supply - demand fundamentals improve slightly. It is expected to run with the cost and pay attention to cost changes [47]. Soda Ash - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the 2509主力 contract of soda ash closed at 1373 yuan/ton, up 3.39% [48]. - **Analysis**: The supply is high, the new orders are average, and the downstream procurement is not active. It is expected to remain weak in the short term [49]. Glass - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the 2509主力 contract of glass closed at 1154 yuan/ton, up 2.21% [50]. - **Analysis**: The production line is at a low level, the inventory changes little, and the market sentiment is weak due to tariff impacts [50]. Caustic Soda - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the 2509主力 contract of caustic soda closed at 2496 yuan/ton, up 0.65% [51]. - **Analysis**: Some large - scale devices are under maintenance, and the profit improves. The alumina has limited positive drivers, and the market turns weak again [52]. Pulp - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the 2507主力 contract of pulp closed at 5402 yuan/ton, up 0.93% [53]. - **Analysis**: The inventory accumulates slightly, the downstream starts vary, and the market is affected by tariff news. It is expected to be volatile at a low level [53]. Lithium Carbonate - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the lithium carbonate主力 contract rose 1.14% to 68980 yuan/ton [54]. - **Analysis**: The macro - events affect the market, the supply is high, the demand is weak, and the inventory accumulates. It is expected to run weakly [54][55]. Copper - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper oscillated upwards [56]. - **Analysis**: The Sino - US tariffs are expected to be reduced, and the copper price is expected to be bullish. It is recommended to take long positions [56][57]. Tin - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, tin rose 1.11% to 261480 yuan/ton [58]. - **Analysis**: The tin price fluctuates due to tariffs. The supply and demand factors are intertwined. It is expected to run volatilely, and control risks in the short term [58][59]. Nickel - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the nickel price fell 0.55% to 125120 yuan/ton [60]. - **Analysis**: The market sentiment is pessimistic due to tariffs. The supply is tightened, and the cost is supported, but the demand is weak. It is recommended to control risks and observe cautiously [60]. Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the industrial silicon and polysilicon futures fell significantly, and the spot prices decreased [61]. - **Analysis**: The fundamentals are weak, and it is recommended to short at high levels on rebounds [61][62]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the soybean meal main contract was flat, and the soybean oil main contract rose 1.19%. The spot prices increased [63]. - **Analysis**: The trade concerns ease, the supply is loose, and the demand is expected to increase slightly. Observe for soybean meal and consider out - of - the - money call options for soybean oil [63][64]. Palm Oil - **Performance**: The Malaysian palm oil closed up, and the domestic import volume increased in March [65]. - **Analysis**: It is recommended to temporarily observe [67]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - **Performance**: The Canadian rapeseed rose for the second consecutive day. The domestic import volume of rapeseed oil increased, while that of rapeseed and rapeseed meal decreased in March [68]. - **Analysis**: Consider the opportunity to expand the spread between soybean and rapeseed products [69]. Cotton - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, domestic Zhengzhou cotton rebounded slightly, and the external cotton rose overnight [70]. - **Analysis**: The tariffs affect the demand, and the domestic downstream demand is weak. It is recommended to short at high levels on rebounds for the far - month contracts [72][73]. Sugar - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, domestic Zhengzhou sugar fell slightly, and the external raw sugar fell slightly [74]. - **Analysis**: The international raw sugar is affected by multiple factors, and the domestic supply pressure is not large. It is recommended to observe [76][77]. Apples - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, domestic apple futures oscillated at a high level [78]. - **Analysis**: The inventory is low, the consumption is good, and the spot price is strong. It is recommended to go long at low levels after corrections [78][80]. Live Pigs - **Performance**: The national average price of live pigs was flat. The futures主力 contract fell 0.93% [81][82]. - **Analysis**: The group - farmed pigs' planned output in April has limited increase, and the consumption is in the off - season. The spot price may be supported in the short term, and the far - month contracts may be affected by cost expectations [82]. Eggs - **Performance**: The average price of eggs in the main production and sales areas was flat. The cost and profit are in a narrow - range oscillation [83]. - **Analysis**: The supply of eggs is expected to increase in April, and the consumption is in the off - season. Consider the opportunity for reverse spreads [83][84]. Corn - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the corn主力 contract rose 0.35%. The spot prices in the north and south ports are given [85]. - **Analysis**: The domestic corn supply surplus eases, and the demand increases slightly. The short - term supply pressure exists. It is recommended to observe [85][86]. Logs - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the 2507主力 contract of logs closed at 798.5 yuan/ton, down 0.13% [87]. - **Analysis**: The tropical cyclone affects the shipment, and the spot price is weak. The inventory is relatively neutral, and the real - estate demand is weak [87].

2025 年 4 月 23 日星期三 地址： 电话： 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-67070250 上海市浦东新区向城路 288 号 1101A； 021-61101856 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 | 天然橡胶： | | 10 | | --- | --- | --- | | PVC： | | 10 | | 尿素： | | 11 | | 对二甲苯 | PX： | 11 | | PTA： | | 11 | | 乙二醇： | | 12 | | 短纤： | | 12 | | 瓶片： | | 13 | | 纯碱： | | 13 | | 玻璃： | | 14 | | 烧碱： | | 14 | | 纸浆： | | 15 | | 碳酸锂： | | 15 | | 铜： | | 15 | | --- | --- | --- | | 锡： | | 16 | | 镍： | | 16 | | 工业硅/多晶硅： | | 17 | | 豆油、豆粕： | | 17 | | 棕榈油： | | 18 | | 菜粕、菜油： | | 19 | | 棉花： | | 19 | | 白糖： | | 20 | | 苹果： | | ...

| PTA： | | 12 | | --- | --- | --- | | 乙二醇： | | 12 | | 短纤： | | 13 | | 瓶片： | | 13 | | 纯碱： | | 13 | | 玻璃： | | 14 | | 烧碱： | | 14 | | 纸浆： | | 15 | | 碳酸锂： | | 15 | 2025 年 4 月 22 日星期二 地址： 电话： 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-67070250 上海市浦东新区向城路 288 号 1101A； 021-61101856 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 | 铜： | | 16 | | --- | --- | --- | | 锡： | | 16 | | 镍： | | 17 | | 工业硅/多晶硅： | | 17 | | 豆油、豆粕： | | 18 | | 棕榈油： | | 18 | | 菜粕、菜油： | | 19 | | 棉花： | | 19 | | 白糖： | | 21 | | 苹果： | | 22 | | 生猪： | | 22 | | 鸡蛋： | | 23 | | 玉米： | | 23 | | 原木： | | 24 | | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - For Treasury bonds, expect increased volatility and remain cautious [6][7] - For stock indices, be optimistic about the long - term performance and wait for opportunities to go long [10][11] - For precious metals, the medium - to - long - term upward logic remains strong, and previous long positions can be held [12][13][14] - For rebar and hot - rolled coils, investors can look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds and participate with a light position [15][16] - For iron ore, investors can look for buying opportunities at low levels, and participate with a light position [17][18][19] - For coking coal and coke, investors can look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds and participate with a light position [20][21] - For ferroalloys, consider manganese silicon out - of - the - money call options at low levels and short - covering opportunities for silicon iron at the bottom, or consider out - of - the - money call options at low levels if there are large spot losses [22][23] - For crude oil, consider a long - biased operation on the main contract [24][25][26] - For fuel oil, consider a long - biased operation on the main contract [27][28][29] - For synthetic rubber, expect weak oscillations [30][31] - For natural rubber, expect weak oscillations [32][33] - For PVC, expect bottom oscillations [34][35][37] - For urea, expect short - term weakness [38][39] - For p - xylene (PX), expect low - level oscillations following the cost side, and operate with caution [40][41] - For PTA, expect bottom oscillations, and participate with caution [42] - For ethylene glycol, expect bottom oscillations, and participate with caution [43][44] - For staple fiber, expect bottom adjustments following the cost side, and participate with caution [45] - For bottle chips, expect low - level oscillations following the cost side, and pay attention to cost price changes [46][47] - For soda ash, expect short - term weakness [48] - For glass, expect a weak market sentiment [49] - For caustic soda, price fluctuations depend on supply - demand games, and beware of premature market movements [50][51] - For pulp, expect a weak and low - level repeated oscillation [52] - For lithium carbonate, expect a weak operation [53] - For copper, consider a long - biased operation on the main contract [54][55] - For tin, expect price oscillations, control risks in the short term, and wait for the release of risk sentiment [56] - For nickel, control risks in the short term, and wait for the macro sentiment to stabilize [57] - For industrial silicon and polysilicon, consider short - selling at high levels on rebounds [58][59][60] - For soybean oil and soybean meal, remain on the sidelines for soybean meal; for soybean oil, consider out - of - the - money call options at the bottom support range [61][62] - For palm oil, remain on the sidelines for now [63][64] - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, consider the opportunity to widen the spread after the soybean - rapeseed spread narrows [65][66] - For cotton, wait to short sell the far - month contract at high prices after a rebound [67][68][69] - For sugar, remain on the sidelines [71][73][74] - For apples, consider going long at low prices after a pullback [76][77] - For live pigs, consider short - selling opportunities at high prices [78][79][80] - For eggs, wait for the release of the current market sentiment [81][82] - For corn, remain on the sidelines for now [83][84] - For logs, beware of a rapid decline if the reality is weaker than expected [85][86] Summary by Directory Treasury Bonds - The previous trading day saw a differentiated close of Treasury bond futures, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts having different price changes. The central bank conducted 250.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net investment of 222 billion yuan [5] - The external environment is favorable for Treasury bond futures, but yields are relatively low. China's economy shows a stable recovery trend, and it is advisable to remain cautious [6] Stock Indices - The previous trading day saw slight oscillations in stock index futures, with different changes in the main contracts of various indices [8][9] - The first - quarter fiscal revenue decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, and expenditure increased by 4.2%. In March, total social power consumption increased by 4.8% year - on - year [9] - Although there are concerns about corporate profit growth and global recession, domestic asset valuations are low, and policies have hedging space. Be optimistic about the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets [10] Precious Metals - The previous trading day saw gold and silver main contracts with different price changes. The complex global trade and financial environment, potential monetary policy easing, and other factors are expected to drive up the price of gold [12] - Be optimistic about the long - term value of gold, and previous long positions can be held [13] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - The previous trading day saw a slight correction in rebar and hot - rolled coil futures. The real - estate industry's downturn suppresses rebar prices, but the peak - season demand may provide short - term support. Hot - rolled coils may follow a similar trend. Steel prices are at a low valuation, and the downward space may be limited [15] Iron Ore - The previous trading day saw a slight correction in iron ore futures. The increase in iron ore demand and the decrease in imports and port inventory support the price. The valuation is relatively high among black - series products. Consider buying at low levels [17][18] Coking Coal and Coke - The previous trading day saw weak oscillations in coking coal and coke futures. The supply of coking coal is loose, and the transaction atmosphere has weakened. The shipment of coke has improved, but the possibility of further price increases is low. Consider short - selling on rebounds [20] Ferroalloys - The previous trading day saw slight declines in the main contracts of manganese silicon and silicon iron. The supply of manganese ore may be disturbed, and the demand for ferroalloys is weak while the supply is relatively high. Consider options opportunities based on different situations [22][23] Crude Oil - The previous trading day saw INE crude oil rise and then fall. Speculators increased their net long positions in US crude oil futures. The number of US oil and gas rigs decreased, and OPEC deepened its production - cut agreement. Consider a long - biased operation [24][25][26] Fuel Oil - The previous trading day saw fuel oil rise and then fall. Asian fuel oil demand is unlikely to increase sharply. The sales of marine fuel oil in the UAE's Fujairah Port recovered in March. Consider a long - biased operation as the market may be oscillating upward [27][28][29] Synthetic Rubber - The previous trading day saw a decline in the main contract of synthetic rubber. Supply pressure persists, demand improvement is limited, and it may maintain weak oscillations [30] Natural Rubber - The previous trading day saw different price changes in the main contracts of natural rubber and 20 - number rubber. Global supply is expected to increase, demand is affected by tariffs, and it may maintain weak oscillations [32] PVC - The previous trading day saw a decline in the main contract of PVC. Supply pressure eases marginally, demand recovers weakly, and it may oscillate at the bottom [34][35][37] Urea - The previous trading day saw an increase in the main contract of urea. In the short term, it may oscillate weakly. Agricultural demand is in a lull, and new production capacity is being released [38] P - Xylene (PX) - The previous trading day saw an increase in the PX2509 main contract. PX装置 maintenance and downstream PTA load reduction. It is expected to oscillate at a low level following the cost side [40][41] PTA - The previous trading day saw an increase in the PTA2509 main contract. Supply and demand fundamentals have few contradictions, and it may oscillate at the bottom [42] Ethylene Glycol - The previous trading day saw a decline in the main contract of ethylene glycol. Supply improves due to coal - based plant maintenance, but demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate at the bottom [43][44] Staple Fiber - The previous trading day saw a decline in the staple fiber 2506 main contract. Downstream demand is weak, and it may adjust at the bottom following the cost side [45] Bottle Chips - The previous trading day saw an increase in the bottle chips 2506 main contract. Raw material prices fluctuate, and it is expected to oscillate at a low level following the cost side [46][47] Soda Ash - The previous trading day saw a decline in the main 2509 contract of soda ash. Production and inventory are at high levels, and the market may remain weak in the short term [48] Glass - The previous trading day saw a significant decline in the main 2509 contract of glass. A production line changed its product type. Production lines are at a low level, and inventory changes little. The market sentiment is weak [49] Caustic Soda - The previous trading day saw a slight increase in the main 2505 contract of caustic soda. Production decreased last week, and demand has slightly improved. Price fluctuations depend on supply - demand games [50][51] Pulp - The previous trading day saw a decline in the main 2507 contract of pulp. Port inventory increased slightly, and downstream开工 rates varied. The market is expected to oscillate at a low level [52] Lithium Carbonate - The previous trading day saw a decline in the main contract of lithium carbonate. The trade tariff event affects demand, and supply remains high. It is expected to operate weakly [53] Copper - The previous trading day saw an upward oscillation in Shanghai copper. The price increased, and the spot market had limited supply. Consider a long - biased operation [54] Tin - The previous trading day saw an increase in tin prices. The Bisie tin mine may resume operation, and Indonesian mining costs have increased. Consumption data is good, and prices are expected to oscillate [56] Nickel - The previous trading day saw a decline in nickel prices. The US tariff event has a negative impact on the market. Supply is tightened, and cost support is strong, but demand may weaken in the off - season [57] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - The previous trading day saw a significant decline in the prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon. Supply and demand are imbalanced, and prices are expected to continue to bottom - out [58][59] Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - The previous trading day saw declines in soybean meal and soybean oil main contracts. Brazilian soybean production is high, and domestic supply is abundant. Consider different strategies for soybean oil and soybean meal [61][62] Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil had a slight decline. Domestic imports decreased, and inventory is at a low level. Remain on the sidelines for now [63][64] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed exports decreased. China has imposed tariffs on Canadian products, and domestic inventories are at high levels. Consider the opportunity to widen the spread [65][66] Cotton - The previous trading day saw a weak oscillation in domestic cotton. US cotton export sales increased, and the planting rate is lower than in previous years. Textile exports are affected by tariffs, and domestic demand is weak. Consider short - selling the far - month contract at high prices [67][68][69] Sugar - The previous trading day saw a strong oscillation in domestic sugar. Brazilian sugar production increased, and Indian sugar production was lower than expected. Domestic inventory is neutral, and it is advisable to remain on the sidelines [71][73][74] Apples - The previous trading day saw apple futures rise and then fall. Cold - storage inventory decreased rapidly, and the market sales are good. Consider going long at low prices after a pullback [76][77] Live Pigs - The previous day saw a slight decline in the national average price of live pigs. Demand is weak, and the supply pressure is increasing. Consider short - selling opportunities at high prices [78][79][80] Eggs - The previous trading day saw an increase in the average price of eggs in the main production areas. Egg production capacity is increasing, and consider waiting for the release of market sentiment [81][82] Corn - The previous trading day saw a decline in the corn main contract. The sales of the current season are almost over, and port inventory is high. Supply pressure exists in the short term, and consumption is slightly increasing. Remain on the sidelines for now [83][84] Logs - The previous trading day saw a decline in the main 2507 contract of logs. A tropical cyclone may affect shipments. Inventory is relatively neutral, and beware of a rapid decline [85][86]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report Core Views - China's equity market should not be overly bearish, and there is still long - term potential; long - term positions in gold can be held; long - term value of copper is promising; and different trading strategies are recommended for various commodities based on their fundamentals and market conditions [5][7][10] Summary by Categories Bonds and Equities - **Treasury Bonds and Stock Index Futures**: The previous trading day saw a full - scale rise in stock index futures. Although the domestic economy is stable, tariffs disrupt the recovery rhythm, and there are concerns about corporate profit growth. However, due to low domestic asset valuations and policy hedging space, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and investors should wait for long - entry opportunities [5][7] Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Gold's previous trading day saw a closing price of 789.22 with a 0.97% increase, and silver closed at 8,161 with a - 0.87% change. Powell warned about the inflation effect of Trump's trade policies. Global trade and financial uncertainties, along with potential central bank policy easing, are expected to drive up the price of gold. Long - term value of gold is still positive, and previous long positions can be held [9][10] Metals - **Copper**: Shanghai copper fluctuated and closed above the 5 - day average. The spot market had fair transactions. Given upcoming domestic market - stabilizing measures and the uncertainty of US copper - specific tariffs, investors can consider going long on Shanghai copper [49] - **Tin**: Tin fell 0.09% to 256,680/ton. The Bisie tin mine in Congo (Kinshasa) will resume operation, and Indonesia raised the tin ore royalty. With low domestic processing fees and tight raw material inventory, and good downstream production data, tin prices are expected to oscillate [51] - **Nickel**: Nickel rose 0.1% to 125,780 yuan/ton. US tariff events made the market pessimistic, but there is cost support from tightened mine supply policies in Indonesia and the Philippines. However, downstream acceptance of high prices is low, and demand may weaken in the off - season [52] - **Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon's main contract closed at 9015 yuan/ton with a - 0.93% change, and polysilicon closed at 39440 yuan/ton with a - 1.33% change. US tariffs have limited impact on the photovoltaic industry, but the market is pessimistic. Industrial silicon continues to bottom - out, and the polysilicon market faces challenges in inventory digestion [53][55] Building Materials - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil futures slightly corrected. The real - estate downturn suppresses rebar demand, but the peak - season demand provides short - term support. The valuation of steel prices is low, and there are signs of a stop - fall. Investors can look for low - entry opportunities and set stop - profits [12][13] - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore futures oscillated. High iron - water production boosts demand, and a decrease in imports and port inventory supports prices. Although the valuation is relatively high among black - series products, there are signs of a stop - fall and rebound. Low - entry opportunities can be considered [15] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Coking coal and coke futures declined. Coking coal supply is loose, while coke demand from steel mills is increasing. Coke futures show signs of a stop - fall, and coking coal continues to decline. Low - entry opportunities can be considered with stop - loss and stop - profit settings [17][18] - **Ferroalloys**: Manganese silicon main contract fell 0.30% to 5870 yuan/ton, and silicon iron fell 1.15% to 5658 yuan/ton. Supply is high, and demand is weak. With the arrival of the steel - demand peak season, the supply - surplus situation is weakening. Opportunities for out - of - the - money call options in manganese silicon and exit opportunities for short - positions in silicon iron can be considered [20][21] Energy - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil oscillated upward due to the stalemate in Iran - US negotiations. Data shows changes in US oil futures positions, rig numbers, and OPEC+ production. The market is affected by OPEC's production increase and tariff policies. Short - long positions in the main crude - oil contract can be considered [22][23] - **Fuel Oil**: Fuel oil followed crude oil, rising and then falling. Asian market supply is sufficient, and price increases are limited. Trump's tariff suspension and the extension of sanctions on Russia may support fuel - oil prices. A long - biased operation on the main fuel - oil contract can be considered [24] Chemicals - **Synthetic Rubber**: Synthetic rubber's main contract fell 1.38%. Tariffs have a negative impact on cost and demand. The price is expected to be weak in the short term, with raw - material prices falling and supply increasing [26] - **Natural Rubber**: Natural rubber's main contract and 20 - grade rubber contract both fell. US tariffs impact the market from multiple aspects, and there is no short - term upward driver, but there may be a technical rebound. The market is expected to temporarily stabilize [29][30] - **PVC**: PVC's main contract fell 0.51%. US tariffs have limited impact on PVC trade. The market will continue the "weak reality vs. policy expectation" oscillation. Spring maintenance provides short - term support, but high inventory and weak demand are long - term pressures [31][32] - **Urea**: Urea's main contract fell 0.96%. It is currently in the agricultural - demand off - season. The market may oscillate before the summer - fertilizer demand starts, with supply remaining high and demand weakening [34][35] - **PX**: PX2509 main contract rose 0.1%. Due to increased device maintenance, PX load decreased. Tariff policies are changeable, and crude - oil prices oscillate. PX is expected to oscillate at a low level, and cautious operation is recommended [36][37] - **PTA**: PTA2509 main contract rose 0.23%. Supply decreased due to device maintenance, and demand was affected by tariff - related export blockages. The price is expected to oscillate at the bottom, and cautious participation is advised [38] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Ethylene glycol's main contract fell 0.96%. Supply decreased due to coal - based device shutdowns, and demand was weak due to tariffs. The price is expected to oscillate at the bottom, and investors should pay attention to inventory and policy changes [39][40] - **Short - Fiber**: Short - fiber 2506 main contract rose 0.2%. Supply is at a relatively high level, and demand is weak. It will follow the cost - end adjustment at the bottom, and cautious participation is recommended [41] - **Bottle - Chip**: Bottle - chip 2506 main contract rose 0.76%. Raw - material prices are volatile, and the supply - demand fundamentals lack drivers. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level, following the cost - end [42][43] - **Soda Ash**: Soda ash's main 2509 contract fell 0.07%. Production and inventory are at high levels, and demand is weak. The market will continue to be weak in the short term [44] - **Glass**: Glass's main 2509 contract fell 1.52%. There is no obvious supply - demand driver, and tariff - related news may affect downstream exports. The market sentiment is expected to be weak [45] - **Caustic Soda**: Caustic soda's main 2505 contract rose 2.78%. Production decreased, and demand sentiment improved slightly. The price fluctuation depends on supply - demand competition, and potential concentrated maintenance should be watched [46] - **Paper Pulp**: Paper pulp's main 2507 contract fell 0.71%. Inventory increased, and downstream production was mixed. Tariffs may restructure the import supply, and the market will oscillate at a low level [47] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Lithium carbonate's main contract fell 0.4%. Tariffs increase market risk aversion, and the supply - demand surplus situation remains unchanged. The price is expected to be weak [48] Agricultural Products - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: Soybean meal's main contract fell 0.76%, and soybean oil rose 0.83%. Brazilian soybean production is high, and domestic supply is increasing. Soybean - oil consumption is growing, and soybean - meal demand is expected to increase slightly. Wait - and - see for soybean meal, and consider out - of - the - money call options for soybean oil [57][58] - **Palm Oil**: Malaysian palm oil fell for the fourth day. China's palm - oil imports decreased, and inventory is at a low level. A wait - and - see approach is recommended [59][60] - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: Canadian rapeseed prices are affected by supply and demand. China imposed tariffs on Canadian rapeseed products, and domestic inventory increased. Opportunities for widening the soybean - rapeseed spread can be considered [61][62] - **Cotton**: Zhengzhou cotton oscillated weakly. US cotton sales data is strong, and planting progress is reported. Tariffs disrupt the global economy and affect cotton demand. Domestic downstream demand is weakening. Short - positions in cotton can be gradually closed at low prices [63][66] - **Sugar**: Domestic Zhengzhou sugar oscillated strongly, and overseas raw sugar oscillated at a low level. Brazilian sugar production increased, and Indian and Thai production data are available. The international raw - sugar market has mixed factors, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended [68][71] - **Apple**: Apple futures rebounded slightly, and weekly inventory decreased rapidly. Cold - storage inventory is lower than last year, and sales are good. Buying on dips can be considered [73][74] - **Pigs**: The national average pig price rose slightly. The market is affected by supply, demand, and feed - cost expectations. Short - selling opportunities at high prices can be considered [75][77] - **Eggs**: Egg prices rose. Egg production is increasing, and it is in the consumption off - season. Feed - cost expectations may affect the market. Wait for market sentiment to be released [78][79] - **Corn**: Corn's main contract fell 0.17%. The domestic corn supply - surplus situation is easing, but short - term supply pressure remains due to high inventory and policy - related factors. A wait - and - see approach is recommended [80][81] - **Log**: The main 2507 log contract rose 0.18%. A tropical cyclone in New Zealand may affect log shipments. Current inventory is neutral, and there is a risk of price decline if the reality is weaker than expected [82][83]

当前白糖基本面状况 2025 年 4 月 18 日 研究员：张伟 邮箱：xnqh_zwei@swfutures.com 期货从业证书号：F3011397 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0012289 1 一、全球供需分析 （一）全球糖供需偏紧 据国际糖业组织（ISO）3 月发布的供需报告，其主要内容如下： 预计 2024/2025 榨季全球食糖供应短缺值从此前预估的 251.3 万吨（11 月）扩 大至 488.1 万吨，为近 9 年来供应短缺的最高值。 因巴西和印度减产，以及泰国甘蔗总产量下降等因素。预计 2024/2025 榨 季全球食糖产量降至 1.7554 亿吨，较上榨季减少 584.4 万吨；全球食糖消费 量达到创纪录的 1.8042 亿吨，较上榨季增加 44.9 万吨；全球食糖进出口总量 均有所下降，其中进口量为 6332.4 万吨，出口量为 6266.1 万吨，存在 66.3 万吨的贸易缺口。 目前，北半球主要产糖国生产处于尾声，市场焦点逐渐转移至巴西开榨生 产情况。 （数据来源：ISO） 2 图 1：全球糖供需差（单位：万吨） 179 万吨，库存处于近几年历史同期最低水平，阶段性供给偏紧。但随着巴西 ...