Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The external environment is favorable for Treasury bond futures, but due to the relatively low current Treasury bond yields and the potential for China's economic recovery, a certain degree of caution is advised [7]. - It is not advisable to be overly bearish on China's equity market. After event shocks, China's economy and assets will still operate according to their own laws, and the long - term performance of China's equity assets is still optimistic, waiting for opportunities to go long [8]. - The long - term value of gold is still optimistic, and previous long positions can continue to be held [10]. - For steel products such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, and coking coal and coke, investors can pay attention to low - level buying opportunities, take profits in time when there is a rebound, and pay attention to position management [12][14][16]. - For iron alloys, consider opportunities for out - of - the - money call options on ferromanganese silicon in the low - level range and opportunities for short - position exits for ferrosilicon in the bottom range [19]. - For crude oil, consider temporarily observing the main contract [23]. - For fuel oil, consider temporarily observing the main contract [25]. - Synthetic rubber is expected to be weak in the short term [26]. - Natural rubber and urea are expected to temporarily stabilize [29][35]. - PVC is expected to be in a bottom - oscillating pattern [31]. - PX is expected to oscillate at a low level following the cost side, with a lack of continuous upward drive [37]. - PTA is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short term, with cost and demand gradually improving but lacking continuous upward drive [38]. - Ethylene glycol is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short term, with supply improving and demand being weak [39]. - Short - fiber is expected to adjust at the bottom following the cost side in the short term, with weak downstream terminal demand [40]. - Bottle chips are expected to oscillate at a low level following the cost side, with a slight improvement in the supply - demand fundamentals but a lack of drive [41]. - Soda ash is expected to remain weak in the short term [42]. - Glass is expected to be dominated by weak market sentiment [44]. - For caustic soda, there may be an expectation of concentrated maintenance, and specific price fluctuations depend on the supply - demand game [45]. - Pulp is expected to oscillate at a relatively low level in the short term, and the impact of tariff policies on the import supply structure needs to be observed [47]. - Lithium carbonate is expected to be weak [48]. - Copper prices are expected to be strong, and it is advisable to temporarily observe the main contract [50]. - Tin prices are expected to oscillate, and risks should be controlled in the short term [52]. - Nickel prices may return to the cost - support logic if the macro - sentiment stabilizes, and risks should be controlled in the short term [54]. - For industrial silicon and polysilicon, consider shorting at high levels during rebounds [55]. - For soybean meal, consider taking profits when the price rises; for soybean oil, consider out - of - the - money call options in the bottom - support range [58]. - For palm oil, consider temporarily observing [60]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, consider the opportunity to widen the spread after the soybean - rapeseed spread narrows [61]. - For cotton, suggest gradually taking profits on short positions [63]. - For sugar, suggest observing [68]. - For apples, consider going long at low levels after a pullback [72]. - For live pigs, consider shorting at high levels for two near - month contracts [75]. - For eggs, wait for the release of market sentiment in the short term [77]. - For corn, suggest temporarily observing [79]. - For logs, be vigilant against a rapid decline if the reality is weaker than expected [81]. Summary by Directory Treasury Bonds - On the previous trading day, Treasury bond futures closed down across the board, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts falling by 0.03%, 0.02%, 0.04%, and 0.04% respectively [5]. - The central bank conducted 164.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on April 15, with a net withdrawal of 102.9 billion yuan on the same day [5]. Stock Index Futures - On the previous trading day, stock index futures fell slightly, with the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures main contracts falling by 0.23%, 0.05%, 0.20%, and 0.38% respectively [8]. Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, the gold main contract closed at 764.44 with a 0.10% increase, and the silver main contract closed at 8,158 with a 0.83% increase [10]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures oscillated. The spot price of Tangshan billet was 2,970 yuan/ton, Shanghai rebar was 3,020 - 3,140 yuan/ton, and Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3,240 - 3,260 yuan/ton [12]. Iron Ore - On the previous trading day, iron ore futures rebounded slightly. The PB powder port spot price was 770 yuan/ton, and the Super Special powder was 625 yuan/ton [14]. Coking Coal and Coke - On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures showed mixed trends. The first - round increase in coke spot prices has been implemented [16]. Ferroalloys - On the previous trading day, the manganese silicon main contract fell 1.58% to 5,868 yuan/ton, and the silicon iron main contract fell 1.67% to 5,774 yuan/ton [18]. Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, INE crude oil opened higher and oscillated, standing above the 5 - day moving average [21]. - As of April 8, speculators reduced their net long positions in WTI crude oil futures and options by 29,690 lots [21]. - In March, OPEC + production increased by 30,000 barrels per day to 41.04 million barrels per day [21]. Fuel Oil - On the previous trading day, fuel oil followed crude oil, opening higher and rising. Asian fuel oil spot trading strengthened [24]. Synthetic Rubber - On the previous trading day, the synthetic rubber main contract fell 2.69%. The Shandong mainstream price remained stable at 12,000 yuan/ton [26]. Natural Rubber - On the previous trading day, the natural rubber main contract fell 2.36%, and the 20 - rubber main contract fell 2.46%. The Shanghai spot price dropped to 14,750 yuan/ton [29]. PVC - On the previous trading day, the PVC main contract fell 0.24%. The spot price remained stable [31]. Urea - The content is the same as that of natural rubber, with the same price and market analysis [35]. PX - On the previous trading day, the PX2505 main contract fell 1.66%. The PXN spread dropped to $180/ton, and the PX - MX spread was around $60/ton [37]. PTA - On the previous trading day, the PTA2505 main contract fell 1.34%. The East China market price was 4,350 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was 0.51% [38]. Ethylene Glycol - On the previous trading day, the ethylene glycol main contract fell 1.95%. The East China market price was 4,320 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was 1.81% [39]. Short - Fiber - On the previous trading day, the short - fiber 2505 main contract fell 1.87%. The device load dropped to around 91% [40]. Bottle Chips - On the previous trading day, the bottle chips 2505 main contract fell 1.39%. The device load rose to around 73% [41]. Soda Ash - On the previous trading day, the 2505 main contract closed at 1,331 yuan/ton, falling 0.30% [42]. Glass - On the previous trading day, the 2505 main contract closed at 1,144 yuan/ton, falling 0.44% [43]. Caustic Soda - On the previous trading day, the 2505 main contract closed at 2,425 yuan/ton, rising 1.63% [45]. Pulp - On the previous trading day, the 2507 main contract closed at 5,416 yuan/ton, falling 0.04% [47]. Lithium Carbonate - On the previous trading day, the lithium carbonate main contract closed down 0.17% to 70,720 yuan/ton [48]. Copper - On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper oscillated lower. The average price of 1 electrolytic copper was 76,100 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton [49]. Tin - On the previous trading day, tin fell 0.54% to 258,100 yuan/ton [52]. Nickel - On the previous trading day, nickel prices rose 0.97% to 124,830 yuan/ton [53]. Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon - On the previous trading day, the industrial silicon main contract closed at 9,170 yuan/ton, falling 2.50%; the polysilicon main contract closed at 40,485 yuan/ton, falling 2.79% [55]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - On the previous trading day, the soybean meal main contract fell 1.00% to 3,066 yuan/ton, and the soybean oil main contract fell 0.23% to 7,676 yuan/ton [57]. Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil fell for the second consecutive day. From April 1 - 15, Malaysian palm oil exports increased [59]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed resumed rising. China imposed a 100% tariff on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes since March 20, 2025 [61]. Cotton - On the previous trading day, domestic Zhengzhou cotton oscillated at a low level. As of April 13, the US cotton planting rate was 5% [62]. Sugar - On the previous trading day, domestic Zhengzhou sugar oscillated weakly. Brazilian sugar production in the second half of March increased by nearly 10% year - on - year [65]. Apples - On the previous trading day, domestic apple futures oscillated. As of April 9, the national apple cold - storage inventory was 398.63 million tons, a decrease of 38.90 million tons from the previous week [70]. Live Pigs - On the previous trading day, the national average price of live pigs was 14.96 yuan/kg, up 0.05 yuan [73]. Eggs - On the previous trading day, the average price of eggs in the main production areas was 3.46 yuan/jin, up 0.09 yuan; in the main sales areas, it was 3.58 yuan/jin, up 0.07 yuan [76]. Corn - On the previous trading day, the corn main contract fell 0.60% to 2,302 yuan/ton. The 24/25 annual grain sales progress has exceeded 90% [78]. Logs - On the previous trading day, the 2507 main contract closed at 828.5 yuan/ton, falling 0.72% [80].

| 铜： | | 16 | | --- | --- | --- | | 锡： | | 17 | | 镍： | | 17 | | 工业硅/多晶硅： | | 18 | | 豆油、豆粕： | | 18 | | 棕榈油： | | 19 | | 菜粕、菜油： | | 20 | | 棉花： | | 20 | | 白糖： | | 21 | | 苹果： | | 22 | | 生猪： | | 23 | | 鸡蛋： | | 24 | | 玉米： | | 24 | | 原木： | | 25 | | 免责声明 | | 26 | 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-67070250 上海市浦东新区向城路 288 号 1101A； 021-61101856 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 | 国债: | | | --- | --- | | 股指: .. | N | | 贵金属： | | | 螺纹、热卷: . | | | 铁矿石: . | | | 焦煤焦炭: . | | | 铁合金： . | | | .. 原油: | | | . 燃料油: | | | 合成橡胶: . | | | 天然橡胶: .. | 1 | | .. PVC: ...

2025 年 4 月 14 日星期一 地址： 电话： 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-67070250 上海市浦东新区向城路 288 号 1101A； 021-61101856 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 央行发文称，初步统计，2025 年 3 月末社会融资规模存量为 422.96 万亿元，同比 增长 8.4%。其中，对实体经济发放的人民币贷款余额为 262.18 万亿元，同比增长 7.2%。 3 月末，广义货币（M2）余额 326.06 万亿元，同比增长 7%。狭义货币（M1）余额 113.49 万亿元，同比增长 1.6%。一季度人民币贷款增加 9.78 万亿元。分部门看，住户贷款增 加 1.04 万亿元，其中，短期贷款增加 1603 亿元，中长期贷款增加 8832 亿元。 | 国债: | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 股指: | | | | | 贵金属: | ู่ | | | 螺纹、热卷: . | ( | | | 铁矿石: . | | | | 焦煤焦炭: . | 1 | | 铁合金: | | ( | | 原油: | .. | | | 燃料油: | | | | 合成 ...

2025 年 4 月 11 日星期五 地址： 电话： 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-67070250 上海市浦东新区向城路 288 号 1101A； 021-61101856 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 | 铜： | | 17 | | --- | --- | --- | | 锡： | | 17 | | 镍： | | 18 | | 工业硅/多晶硅： | | 18 | | 豆油、豆粕： | | 19 | | 棕榈油： | | 19 | | 菜粕、菜油： | | 20 | | 棉花： | | 21 | | 白糖： | | 22 | | 苹果： | | 22 | | 生猪： | | 23 | | 鸡蛋： | | 24 | | 玉米： | | 24 | | 原木： | | 25 | | 免责声明 | | 27 | 国债： 上一交易日，国债期货收盘涨跌不一，30 年期主力合约跌 0.24%报 119.87 元，10 年期主力合约持平报 109.035 元，5 年期主力合约涨 0.07%报 106.5 元，2 年期主力合 约涨 0.03%报 102.702 元。 公开市场方面，央行公告称，4 月 10 ...

2025 年 4 月 10 日星期四 地址： 电话： 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-67070250 上海市浦东新区向城路 288 号 1101A； 021-61101856 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 | 铜： | | 17 | | --- | --- | --- | | 锡： | | 18 | | 镍： | | 18 | | 工业硅/多晶硅： | | 18 | | 豆油、豆粕： | | 19 | | 棕榈油： | | 20 | | 菜粕、菜油： | | 20 | | 棉花： | | 21 | | 白糖： | | 22 | | 苹果： | | 23 | | 生猪： | | 23 | | 鸡蛋： | | 24 | | 玉米： | | 25 | | 原木： | | 25 | | 免责声明 | | 27 | 4 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 益率处在相对低位；抛开关税影响，中国经济呈现平稳复苏态势，内需政策有发力空 间，建议保持一定的谨慎。 国债： 上一交易日，国债期货收盘全线上涨，30 年期主力合约涨 0.16%报 120.33 元，10 年期主力合约涨 0.09%报 109.045 元，5 年 ...

重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-67070250 上海市浦东新区向城路 288 号 1101A； 021-61101856 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 2025 年 4 月 9 日星期三 地址： 电话： | PTA： | | 12 | | --- | --- | --- | | 乙二醇： | | 13 | | 短纤： | | 13 | | 瓶片： | | 14 | | 纯碱： | | 14 | | 玻璃： | | 14 | | 烧碱： | | 15 | | 纸浆： | | 15 | | 碳酸锂： | | 16 | | 铜： | | 16 | | --- | --- | --- | | 锡： | | 17 | | 镍： | | 17 | | 工业硅/多晶硅： | | 18 | | 豆油、豆粕： | | 18 | | 棕榈油： | | 19 | | 菜粕、菜油： | | 19 | | 棉花： | | 20 | | 白糖： | | 21 | | 苹果： | | 22 | | 生猪： | | 23 | | 鸡蛋： | | 23 | | 玉米： | | 24 | | 原木： | | 25 | | 免 ...

Report Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Core View - In the context of tariff frictions, the overall driving force is weak, and cotton prices are expected to remain weak [30]. Summary by Directory International Cotton Market Analysis - In the 2024/25 season, the global supply is generally loose. The global cotton production is estimated to increase to 26.37 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.74 million tons, mainly due to a significant increase in China's cotton production. The global cotton consumption is 25.41 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 490,000 tons, mainly due to the obvious increase in cotton consumption in countries such as Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Thailand. The global cotton ending inventory in the 2024/25 season is expected to decrease by 20,000 tons from the previous month's estimate, and increase by 910,000 tons year - on - year [2]. - The supply of US cotton is loose, but there is an expectation of a decline in the future planting area. The 2024/25 US cotton production is expected to be 3.14 million tons, with little change from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 510,000 tons. The ending inventory is expected to be 1.07 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 380,000 tons. In March 2025, the estimated cotton planting area in the US is 9.867 million acres, a year - on - year decrease of 12% [5]. Domestic Cotton Fundamentals - China's cotton production in 2024 exceeded expectations. The single - yield reached a record high of 2,171.6 kg/ha, a year - on - year increase of about 7.8%. The total national production is estimated to be 6.84 million tons. It is expected that the cotton planting area in China will increase by 0.8% in 2025, but the single - yield may decline, and the production will also decrease year - on - year [8]. - As of the end of February 2025, China's national cotton commercial inventory was 5.51 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 140,000 tons, and the industrial inventory was 930,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 40,000 tons. Both inventories are at the highest level in the same period of history [10][11]. - As of the end of February 2025, the yarn inventory of domestic textile enterprises was 22.32 days, an increase of 0.6 days from the previous month and 3.6 days year - on - year. The grey fabric inventory was 29.43 days, a decrease of 1.1 days from the previous month and an increase of 2.2 days year - on - year [15]. China's Textile and Apparel Demand - According to customs data, from January to February 2025, China's textile and apparel exports decreased by 4.5% year - on - year. The US has imposed high - tariff policies on China, and China has also counter - imposed tariffs. China's textile exports are expected to decline by about 10% [19]. - From January to February 2025, the retail sales of clothing, footwear, hats, and knitted textiles in China increased by 3.3% year - on - year, but the growth rate is still low [22]. Cost and Profit - The current domestic spot yarn - cotton price difference is around 6,200 yuan/ton, at a historically low level. In 2024, the yarn - cotton price difference was in the range of 6,000 - 6,600 yuan/ton, and downstream textile enterprises suffered large losses for a long time [26]. - The purchase price of seed cotton this season is 6.3 yuan/kg, and the corresponding cotton cost is around 14,500 - 15,000 yuan/ton, and the futures market has been at a discount [28]. Trading Logic - From the perspective of the USDA balance sheet, the world is in a stocking cycle in the 2024/25 season, which is a medium - and long - term negative factor for cotton prices. Globally, Brazilian cotton has the lowest cost, about 60 cents. In a period of oversupply, global cotton prices may approach the Brazilian planting cost. However, the expected 12% decrease in the US planting area in the new season will also affect cotton prices [29]. - Domestically, the current supply far exceeds expectations, industrial and commercial inventories are at a high level, downstream yarn and grey fabric inventories are also high, and downstream profits are low. In terms of demand, the US high - tariff policy on China and China's counter - measures will have a long - term impact on cotton demand, and China's textile exports are expected to decline further [29].

2025 年 4 月 8 日星期二 地址： 电话： 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-67070250 上海市浦东新区向城路 288 号 1101A； 021-61101856 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 | PVC： | | 11 | | --- | --- | --- | | 尿素： | | 11 | | 对二甲苯 | PX： | 12 | | PTA： | | 12 | | 乙二醇： | | 13 | | 短纤： | | 13 | | 瓶片： | | 14 | | 纯碱： | | 14 | | 玻璃： | | 15 | | 烧碱： | | 15 | | 纸浆： | | 16 | | 碳酸锂： | | 16 | | 铜： | | 16 | | --- | --- | --- | | 锡： | | 17 | | 镍： | | 17 | | 工业硅/多晶硅： | | 18 | | 豆油、豆粕： | | 18 | | 棕榈油： | | 19 | | 菜粕、菜油： | | 19 | | 棉花： | | 20 | | 白糖： | | 21 | | 苹果： | | 22 | | 生猪： | | 23 ...

2025 年 4 月 7 日星期一 地址： 电话： 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-67070250 上海市浦东新区向城路 288 号 1101A； 021-61101856 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 | 铁合金： | | 8 | | --- | --- | --- | | 原油： | | 8 | | 燃料油： | | 9 | | 合成橡胶： | | 10 | | 天然橡胶： | | 10 | | PVC： | | 11 | | 尿素： | | 12 | | 对二甲苯 | PX： | 12 | | PTA： | | 13 | | 乙二醇： | | 13 | | 短纤： | | 14 | | 瓶片： | | 14 | | 纯碱： | | 15 | | 玻璃： | | 15 | | 烧碱： | | 15 | | 纸浆： | | 16 | | 碳酸锂： | | 17 | | 铜： | | 17 | | --- | --- | --- | | 锡： | | 18 | | 镍： | | 18 | | 工业硅/多晶硅： | | 18 | | 豆油、豆粕： | | 19 | | 棕榈油： | | 20 ...

2025 年 4 月 3 日星期四 地址： 电话： 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-67070250 上海市浦东新区向城路 288 号 1101A； 021-61101856 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 | PVC： | | 11 | | --- | --- | --- | | 尿素： | | 11 | | 对二甲苯 | PX： | 12 | | PTA： | | 12 | | 乙二醇： | | 13 | | 短纤： | | 14 | | 瓶片： | | 14 | | 纯碱： | | 14 | | 玻璃： | | 15 | | 烧碱： | | 15 | | 纸浆： | | 16 | | 碳酸锂： | | 17 | | --- | --- | --- | | 铜： | | 17 | | 铝： | | 17 | | 锌： | | 18 | | 铅： | | 18 | | 锡： | | 19 | | 镍： | | 19 | | 工业硅/多晶硅： | | 19 | | 豆油、豆粕： | | 20 | | 棕榈油： | | 21 | | 菜粕、菜油： | | 21 | | 棉花： | | 22 | ...