1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information about the report industry investment ratings in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Treasury Bonds**: Expected to have no trend - based market, maintain a cautious stance [6][7] - **Stock Index Futures**: Low risk of significant decline, consider taking long positions opportunistically [9][10] - **Precious Metals**: Pricing is relatively full, take profit on previous long positions and then wait and see [11][12] - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils**: The mid - term weakness of rebar prices is hard to change, and hot - rolled coils may follow a similar trend. Look for short - selling opportunities at high levels during rebounds [13][14] - **Iron Ore**: The short - term supply - demand pattern supports prices, but it may weaken in the medium term. Look for buying opportunities during pullbacks [16] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Consider buying during pullbacks [18][19] - **Ferroalloys**: May continue to have oversupply in the short term. Consider long positions at low levels when the spot falls into the loss range again after a decline [21][22] - **Crude Oil**: Temporarily wait and see [24][25] - **Fuel Oil**: Look for long - buying opportunities [26][27] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Oscillate [28][29] - **Natural Rubber**: Look for long - buying opportunities [30][31] - **PVC**: Pay attention to changes on the supply side [32][35] - **Urea**: Limited downside space [36][37] - **Para - Xylene (PX)**: May have an oscillatory adjustment in the short term, with support at the bottom. Consider participating at low levels [38][39] - **PTA**: May oscillate in the short term. Be cautiously bullish and pay attention to oil price changes [40] - **Ethylene Glycol**: May oscillate in the short term. Participate within a range and pay attention to port inventory and import changes [41][42] - **Short - Fiber**: May oscillate following costs. Control risks and pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [43] - **Bottle Chips**: Expected to oscillate following the cost side. Control risks [44][45] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Pay attention to the sustainability of consumption [46] - **Copper**: Look for long - buying opportunities [47][48] - **Tin**: May oscillate with an upward bias [49] - **Nickel**: Expected to oscillate [51] - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: Consider long positions for soybean meal after adjustment; temporarily wait and see for soybean oil [54][55] - **Palm Oil**: Temporarily wait and see [56][58] - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: Temporarily wait and see for rapeseed oil [59][60] - **Cotton**: Limited upside space for cotton prices [61][62] - **Sugar**: There is support at the bottom [64][67] - **Apples**: Expected to run strongly [69][71] - **Pigs**: Take profit on short positions in the short term and then wait and see. Wait for opportunities to sell short on rebounds [72][73] - **Eggs**: Hold short positions and look for opportunities to add short positions on rebounds [74][75] - **Corn and Starch**: It is advisable to wait and see for corn; corn starch may follow the corn market [76][77] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Treasury Bonds - Last trading day, treasury futures closed up across the board. The central bank conducted 475.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 315.8 billion yuan. ADP will release weekly US employment data. The current macro - data is stable, but the recovery momentum needs strengthening. The yield is relatively low, and the market risk preference has increased. It is expected that there will be no trend - based market [5][6] Stock Index Futures - Last trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak, and corporate profit growth is low. However, domestic asset valuations are low, and the economy has sufficient resilience. Market sentiment has warmed up, and incremental funds have entered the market. The uncertainty in Sino - US economic and trade relations has eased, and the risk of significant decline is low [8][9] Precious Metals - Last trading day, gold and silver futures closed down. The US housing price index increased. The complex global trade and financial environment, the trend of "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization", and potential Fed rate cuts are beneficial to precious metals. However, the recent increase has been large, and the pricing is full [11] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - Last trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rebounded slightly. In the medium term, prices are dominated by industry supply - demand logic. The real - estate industry's downward trend remains unchanged, and rebar demand is declining year - on - year. Although it is the traditional peak demand season, the inventory pressure is obvious. The basic logic of hot - rolled coils is similar to that of rebar [13][14] Iron Ore - Last trading day, iron ore futures rebounded significantly. The national hot - metal daily output remains at around 2.4 million tons, supporting prices. Although the import and domestic production of iron ore have increased quarter - on - quarter since the second quarter, the year - on - year decline in the first 9 months remains unchanged. The port inventory is lower than last year [16] Coking Coal and Coke - Last trading day, coking coal and coke futures declined slightly. Coking coal supply is slightly tight due to safety inspections, and demand is okay. The second - round increase in coke procurement prices is gradually being implemented. Coking profits are stable, and demand remains high [18] Ferroalloys - Last trading day, manganese - silicon futures closed down, and silicon - iron futures closed up. The manganese - ore shipment from Gabon decreased, and the Australian ore supply increased. The port manganese - ore inventory increased slightly, but the level is still low. The cost of ferroalloys has increased, and the supply is in short - term surplus [21] Crude Oil - Last trading day, INE crude oil oscillated downward but remained above the 5 - day moving average. The US government shutdown suspended the CFTC report. The number of US oil and gas rigs increased for the second consecutive week. India's Reliance Industries will comply with sanctions on Russia. The increase in US crude - oil production is difficult, and sanctions on Russia are beneficial to oil prices [23][24] Fuel Oil - Last trading day, fuel oil oscillated downward following crude oil. The sanctions on oil have increased market sentiment. The Asian high - sulfur and ultra - low - sulfur fuel - oil spreads are strong, and the Singapore fuel - oil supply is tight. Sanctions on Russia are beneficial to fuel - oil prices [26] Synthetic Rubber - Last trading day, synthetic rubber futures closed down. The short - and medium - term maintenance is expected to increase, which may drive the market to stop falling and rebound. The raw - material side is bearish, and the private - enterprise supply is expected to increase. The short - term market is weak, and it will oscillate [28] Natural Rubber - Last trading day, natural - rubber futures showed mixed performance. The market should focus on the weather in production areas and demand expectations. The new - rubber production is slow due to weather disturbances, and the raw - material purchase price has increased. The tire - enterprise capacity utilization has increased slightly, and the inventory has decreased significantly [30] PVC - Last trading day, PVC futures closed down. The oversupply situation continues, but the downward space is limited. After the holiday, focus on exports and supply reduction. The PVC production capacity utilization has decreased, and the demand from downstream industries has increased. The cost - profit situation is complex [32][33] Urea - Last trading day, urea futures closed down. In the short term, pay attention to export - policy changes and the seasonal recovery of agricultural demand. The supply pressure has eased, and the demand from the agricultural market has increased. The cost is stable, and the inventory is lower than expected [36] Para - Xylene (PX) - Last trading day, PX futures rose. The PXN spread is relatively strong, and the supply has slightly decreased. The cost - side crude oil has recovered. In the short term, PX may oscillate and adjust, with support at the bottom [38][39] PTA - Last trading day, PTA futures rose. The supply has changed, and the demand from the polyester industry is stable. The processing fee has been significantly under pressure, and the inventory is low. The cost - side crude oil has recovered. In the short term, it may oscillate [40] Ethylene Glycol - Last trading day, ethylene glycol futures closed down. The overall operating load has increased, and the port inventory has decreased. The downstream polyester industry's operating rate is stable, but the terminal demand support is limited. In the short term, it may oscillate [41][42] Short - Fiber - Last trading day, short - fiber futures rose. The device load has decreased, and the demand has improved. The processing fee is around 1,125 yuan/ton. In the short term, it may oscillate following costs [43] Bottle Chips - Last trading day, bottle - chip futures rose. The processing fee has decreased to around 450 yuan/ton. The factory load has increased, and the export growth has slowed down. It is expected to oscillate following the cost side [44][45] Lithium Carbonate - Last trading day, lithium - carbonate futures rose. The production is at a high level, and the supply - side profit is sufficient. The demand from the energy - storage and power - battery sectors has improved, and the social inventory is decreasing [46] Copper - Last trading day, Shanghai copper futures fell significantly. The spot market was mediocre, and the downstream consumption sentiment was low. The Indonesian copper mine has not resumed production, which supports copper prices. There are different views on the Sino - US APEC meeting [47] Tin - Last trading day, tin futures rose. The mining end is tight, the resumption of production in Wa State is slow, and the domestic processing fee is low. The demand shows certain resilience. The refined - tin inventory is decreasing, and the price may oscillate upward [49] Nickel - Last trading day, nickel futures closed down. The change in Indonesia's RKAB approval policy has raised supply concerns. The mining - end price has weakened, and the domestic port inventory is increasing. The high - grade nickel ore is still tight. The stainless - steel consumption is weak, and the refined - nickel market is in surplus [51] Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - Last trading day, soybean - meal futures rose, and soybean - oil futures fell. Sino - US trade frictions may ease. The soybean - crushing volume of oil mills has recovered to a high level. The soybean - meal inventory has decreased, and the soybean - oil inventory pressure is still large. The consumption of soybean oil may be suppressed, and the demand for soybean meal is expected to grow moderately [53][54] Palm Oil - Malaysian palm - oil futures fell for the third consecutive day. Indonesia's palm - oil production is expected to increase by 10% in 2025. The domestic palm - oil import has decreased, and the inventory is at a medium level in the past 7 years [56] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed prices rose. In China, the import of rapeseed and rapeseed meal decreased in September, while the import of rapeseed oil increased. The inventory of rapeseed, rapeseed meal, and rapeseed oil is at different levels in the past 7 years [59] Cotton - Last trading day, domestic cotton futures oscillated. The market has high expectations for Sino - US negotiations. The export of textile and clothing is relatively stable. The domestic cotton production is expected to be high this year, and the cotton price is under pressure [61][62] Sugar - Last trading day, Zhengzhou sugar futures rebounded significantly, while overseas sugar futures fell to a four - year low. Brazil's sugar production has slightly exceeded expectations, and the global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus. The domestic northern region has started sugar production, and the southern region will start in December [64][66] Apples - Last trading day, domestic apple futures rose significantly due to quality concerns. The opening price this year is higher than last year. The late - maturing apple market is active, but the quality is poor [69][70] Pigs - Yesterday, the national average pig price rose. At the end of the month, the northern market is strengthening, and the southern market is following. The supply from group farms has decreased slightly, and the retail - farmer reluctance to sell remains. The consumption demand has improved. In the second half of the month, the supply from group farms is expected to increase [72] Eggs - Last trading day, the average egg price in the main production and sales areas remained unchanged. The cost per catty has increased slightly, and the farming profit is negative. The number of laying hens in stock is at a high level in the past 9 years. In October, the supply is expected to increase, and the consumption may be lower than expected [74] Corn and Starch - Last trading day, corn futures rose, and corn - starch futures fell. The new - season corn is accelerating to ports, and the inventory is expected to increase. The demand for corn is growing slightly, but the price is under pressure due to the harvest. Corn starch has weak supply and demand, and the inventory is at a high level [76][77]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - For Treasury bonds, it is expected that there will be no trending market, and caution is advised [6][7]. - For stock indices, it is expected that there is little risk of a significant decline, and investors can choose the right time to go long [9][10]. - For precious metals, the pricing is relatively full. After taking profit on long positions, investors can wait and see [11][12]. - For rebar and hot - rolled coils, the prices may remain weak in the medium term. Investors can focus on short - selling opportunities at high levels during rebounds [13]. - For iron ore, the short - term supply - demand pattern supports prices, and investors can focus on buying opportunities during pullbacks [15]. - For coking coal and coke, the short - term trend is turning strong, and investors can focus on buying opportunities during pullbacks [17]. - For ferroalloys, the short - term supply may remain in excess, and investors can consider long positions at low levels when the spot falls into the loss range again [19][20]. - For crude oil, investors can focus on long - buying opportunities for the main contract [22][23]. - For fuel oil, investors can focus on long - buying opportunities for the main contract [25][26]. - For synthetic rubber, it is expected to fluctuate [27][28]. - For natural rubber, investors can focus on long - buying opportunities [31]. - For PVC, investors should pay attention to changes on the supply side [34]. - For urea, the downside space is limited [37]. - For p - xylene (PX), it may fluctuate and adjust in the short term, and investors can consider participating at the bottom [38]. - For PTA, it may fluctuate in the short term, and a cautiously bullish view is recommended [39][40]. - For ethylene glycol, it may fluctuate in the short term, and the downside space may be limited [41]. - For short - fiber, it may fluctuate following costs in the short term [43][44]. - For bottle chips, it is expected to fluctuate following the cost side [45]. - For lithium carbonate, pay attention to the sustainability of consumption [46]. - For copper, investors can focus on long - buying opportunities for the main contract [47][49]. - For tin, the price is expected to fluctuate strongly [50]. - For nickel, it is expected to fluctuate [53]. - For soybean oil and soybean meal, consider buying call options on soybean meal after adjustment, and temporarily wait and see for soybean oil [55][56]. - For palm oil, temporarily wait and see [58]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, temporarily wait and see for rapeseed oil [60]. - For cotton, the upside space of the price is expected to be limited [62][63]. - For sugar, there is certain support at the bottom [65][66]. - For apples, wait and see [68]. - For live pigs, consider taking short - term profit on short positions and then wait and see, and wait for opportunities to short on rebounds [71]. - For eggs, continue to hold short positions and pay attention to opportunities to add short positions on rebounds [73]. - For corn and starch, it is advisable to wait and see for corn, and corn starch may follow the corn market [76]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Treasury Bonds - Last trading day, Treasury bond futures closed higher across the board. The 30 - year main contract rose 0.32% to 115.400 yuan [5]. - The central bank is studying a one - time personal credit relief policy, and will resume open - market Treasury bond trading. It will also crack down on virtual currency operations [6]. - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the Treasury bond yield is at a relatively low level. It is expected that there will be no trending market [6]. Stock Indices - Last trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The CSI 300 stock index futures (IF) main contract rose 1.24%, and others had different changes [8]. - The CSRC issued opinions on protecting small and medium - sized investors, including optimizing the IPO pricing mechanism [9]. - The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak. Asset valuations are low, and market sentiment has warmed up. It is expected that there is little risk of a significant decline [9]. Precious Metals - Last trading day, the gold main contract closed at 934.14 with a decline of 0.42%, and silver rose 0.55% [11]. - The global trade and financial environment is complex. Central bank gold purchases and expected Fed rate cuts are positive, but the recent increase is large [11]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - Last trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rebounded slightly. Spot prices are in a certain range [13]. - In the medium term, the price is dominated by supply - demand. Demand for rebar is still declining year - on - year, and supply capacity is still in surplus. The inventory pressure is obvious [13]. - The price of hot - rolled coils may be similar to that of rebar. Investors can focus on short - selling opportunities at high levels during rebounds [13]. Iron Ore - Last trading day, iron ore futures rebounded significantly. The PB powder port spot price is 793 yuan/ton [15]. - The daily output of molten iron supports the price. The supply has increased since the second quarter, but the year - on - year decline in the first 9 months remains. The short - term supply - demand pattern is supportive [15]. - Investors can focus on buying opportunities during pullbacks [15]. Coking Coal and Coke - Last trading day, coking coal and coke futures rose slightly. The supply of coking coal is slightly tight, and the spot purchase price of coke has risen for the second time [17]. - The short - term trend is turning strong, and investors can focus on buying opportunities during pullbacks [17]. Ferroalloys - Last trading day, the manganese - silicon main contract rose 0.24% to 5802 yuan/ton, and silicon - iron rose 0.36% to 5564 yuan/ton [19]. - The supply of manganese ore has increased, and the cost of ferroalloys has risen. The production is at a high level, and the short - term supply is in excess [19]. - Consider long positions at low levels when the spot falls into the loss range again [20]. Crude Oil - Last trading day, INE crude oil oscillated at a high level. The Baker Hughes rig count increased, and India will comply with sanctions on Russia [21]. - Although the rig count increased, it is difficult to increase US crude oil production. Sanctions on Russia and reduced purchases by India and China are positive for oil prices [22]. - Focus on long - buying opportunities for the main contract [23]. Fuel Oil - Last trading day, fuel oil oscillated upward. Singapore's fuel oil inventory decreased, imports declined, and exports decreased [24][25]. - The sudden supply shortage in Singapore and sanctions on Russia are positive for fuel oil prices [25]. - Focus on long - buying opportunities for the main contract [26]. Synthetic Rubber - Last trading day, the synthetic rubber main contract fell 1.43%. The supply is expected to decrease in the short - to - medium term, and the raw material side is bearish [27]. - It is expected to fluctuate [28]. Natural Rubber - Last trading day, the natural rubber main contract rose 0.20%, and 20 - grade rubber rose 0.08%. The supply is affected by weather, and demand and inventory have changed [29][30]. - Focus on long - buying opportunities [31]. PVC - Last trading day, the PVC main contract rose 0.64%. The supply is in excess, but the downward space may be limited [32]. - Pay attention to changes on the supply side [34]. Urea - Last trading day, the urea main contract closed flat. The supply has decreased due to more device overhauls, and demand has increased slightly [35]. - The downside space is limited [37]. p - Xylene (PX) - Last trading day, the PX main contract rose 1.35%. The PX load increased, and imports decreased. Crude oil prices are supported [38]. - The short - term supply - demand structure has improved, and it may fluctuate and adjust. Consider participating at the bottom [38]. PTA - Last trading day, the PTA2601 main contract rose 1.85%. Supply and demand have changed, and the processing fee has decreased [39]. - It may fluctuate in the short term, and a cautiously bullish view is recommended [40]. Ethylene Glycol - Last trading day, the ethylene glycol main contract rose 0.46%. The overall supply load increased, and inventory decreased. Demand support is limited [41]. - It may fluctuate in the short term, and the downside space may be limited [41]. Short - Fiber - Last trading day, the short - fiber 2512 main contract rose 1.33%. The device load decreased, and demand improved [42]. - It may fluctuate following costs in the short term [43][44]. Bottle Chips - Last trading day, the bottle chips 2601 main contract rose 1.42%. The load increased slightly, and exports slowed down [45]. - It is expected to fluctuate following the cost side [45]. Lithium Carbonate - Last trading day, the main contract rose 2.53% to 81900 yuan/ton. Supply is at a high level, and consumption in the energy - storage sector is strong [46]. - Pay attention to the sustainability of consumption [46]. Copper - Last trading day, Shanghai copper rose significantly. The spot price increased, but downstream consumption意愿 was low after the price increase [47][48]. - The non - resumption of Indonesian copper mines and positive Sino - US and domestic meetings are positive for copper prices [48]. - Focus on long - buying opportunities for the main contract [49]. Tin - Last trading day, the main contract rose 0.22% to 285580 yuan/ton. The supply is tight, and demand shows certain resilience [50]. - The price is expected to fluctuate strongly [50]. Nickel - Last trading day, the main contract fell 0.87% to 121260 yuan/ton. Supply concerns have resurfaced, and the market is in an oversupply situation [52][53]. - It is expected to fluctuate [53]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - Last trading day, soybean meal fell 0.27% to 2932 yuan/ton, and soybean oil rose 0.59% to 8234 yuan/ton. The soybean crushing volume increased, and inventory decreased [55]. - Consider buying call options on soybean meal after adjustment, and temporarily wait and see for soybean oil [56]. Palm Oil - The Malaysian palm oil market fell for the second day. Indonesian biodiesel consumption increased, and Malaysian exports decreased slightly. Domestic imports decreased, and inventory increased [57]. - Temporarily wait and see [58]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed prices rose. Domestic imports of rapeseed, rapeseed meal, and rapeseed oil have changed. Inventory has decreased [59]. - Temporarily wait and see for rapeseed oil [60]. Cotton - Last trading day, domestic cotton futures oscillated. The market has high expectations for Sino - US negotiations. Textile exports are relatively stable, and domestic production is expected to increase [61].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an explicit industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The new - year global cotton supply - demand contradiction is not significant, but there are many uncertainties and large adjustment space in the global supply - demand balance sheet, with the supply - demand report being neutral. Short - term global cotton prices are constrained by harvest pressure. [28] - In China, the new - year production increase expectation is strong, commercial inventory is rising rapidly, and industrial inventory is at a neutral level. The period of the tightest cotton supply has passed. The current cotton - yarn price spread is low, domestic and export demand is weak, and downstream textile mills purchase as needed. [28] - If there is no substantial progress in Sino - US tariff negotiations, cotton prices are expected to face upward pressure due to expected production increase, weak demand, and downstream losses. [28] 3. Summary by Directory Global Cotton Supply - Demand Situation - The USDA's September supply - demand report shows that the estimated global cotton production in the 2025/26 season is 25.65 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 230,000 tons. Global consumption is expected to increase by 180,000 tons to 25.9 million tons, and the global ending inventory is 15.94 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 170,000 tons. The supply - demand report is neutral. [2] US Cotton Supply - Demand Situation - The USDA's September supply - demand report shows that the estimated cotton production is 2.88 million tons, unchanged from the August estimate. The estimated ending inventory is 780,000 tons, unchanged from August and 90,000 tons more than the previous year's ending inventory. [6] Domestic Cotton Industry Chain Situation - **Domestic Cotton Production Increase**: In 2025, the national cotton planting area is 47.306 million mu, a year - on - year increase of 7.6%. Total cotton output is adjusted up by 516,000 tons to 7.415 million tons. The purchase price of seed cotton showed a pattern of high - opening, low - going, and then rebounding. In October, there was a rare scramble for purchases in Xinjiang. [7][11] - **Cotton Inventory Situation**: As of the end of September, the commercial cotton inventory was 1.02 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 670,000 tons. It is expected to reach over 2.5 million tons by October, ending the stage of supply shortage. As of the end of September, the industrial cotton inventory of textile enterprises was 850,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 70,000 tons, at a neutral level. [12][16] - **Textile Mill Yarn Inventory**: As of the end of October, the textile mill yarn inventory was 30.1 days, a year - on - year increase of 5 days, at a neutral - to - high level. [17] - **Textile and Apparel Export Situation**: In September 2025, China's textile and apparel export total was $24.42 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 1.4% and a month - on - month decrease of 8%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative textile and apparel exports were $221.69 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3%. [19][21] Domestic Cotton Valuation Situation - At the end of October, the average purchase price of seed cotton in Xinjiang is expected to be around 6.2 yuan/kg, corresponding to a new - cotton cost of around 14,600 yuan/ton. The current domestic cotton - yarn price spread is around 5,700, at a low level. Xinjiang's textile profit is at the break - even point, while inland textile profit is in the red. Overall, downstream industry chain profits are low, which is not conducive to downstream active inventory replenishment. [22][25]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - For Treasury bonds, expect no trending market and maintain caution [6][7] - For stock index futures, the risk of a significant decline is low, and one can choose the right time to go long [8][9] - For precious metals, the pricing is relatively full. After taking profits on previous long positions, one can wait and see [10][11][12] - For rebar and hot - rolled coils, consider shorting at high levels during rebounds and pay attention to position management [13] - For iron ore, look for buying opportunities during pullbacks and manage positions carefully [15][16] - For coking coal and coke, look for buying opportunities during pullbacks and manage positions [18] - For ferroalloys, consider long positions at low levels when the spot falls back into the loss - making range [20][21] - For crude oil, focus on long - position opportunities for the main contract [23][24] - For fuel oil, focus on long - position opportunities for the main contract [25][26] - For synthetic rubber, it will run in a volatile manner [27][28] - For natural rubber, pay attention to long - position opportunities [29][30] - For PVC, pay attention to changes in the supply side [31][33] - For urea, the downside space is limited [34][35] - For p - xylene (PX), it may have an oscillatory adjustment with support at the bottom. Control positions and be vigilant about crude oil changes [36] - For PTA, it may run in a volatile manner. Be cautious, control risks, and pay attention to oil price changes [37] - For ethylene glycol, it may run in a volatile manner with limited downside space. Monitor port inventory and import changes [38] - For short - fiber, it may follow the cost to run in a volatile manner. Control risks and pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [39][40] - For bottle chips, it is expected to follow the cost side to run in a volatile manner. Control risks [41] - For lithium carbonate, pay attention to the sustainability of consumption in the context of a pattern of high supply and demand [42][43] - For copper, focus on long - position opportunities for the main contract of Shanghai copper [44][45] - For tin, it is expected to run in a volatile and upward - biased manner [46] - For nickel, it is expected to run in a volatile manner [48] - For soybean meal, consider long - position opportunities for call options in the support range after adjustment; for soybean oil, temporarily wait and see [50][51] - For palm oil, temporarily wait and see [52] - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, temporarily wait and see for rapeseed oil [53][55] - For cotton, the upside space of cotton prices is expected to be limited [56][57][58] - For sugar, there is certain support below the price [59][61][62] - For apples, wait and see [63][64] - For live pigs, take short - term profits on short positions and then wait and see. Look for opportunities to short on rebounds and consider reverse - spread strategies for arbitrage [65][66] - For eggs, hold short positions [67][69] - For corn and starch, it is advisable to wait and see; corn starch has weak production and demand with high inventory [70][71][72] Summary by Catalog Treasury Bonds - On the previous trading day, Treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts fell by 0.25%, 0.06%, 0.05%, and 0.01% respectively. The central bank conducted 168 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 3.2 billion yuan [5] - US economic data and macro - economic conditions suggest that Treasury bond futures are unlikely to have a trending market [6] Stock Index Futures - On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM rose by 1.49%, 1.04%, 2.37%, and 2.42% respectively [8] - Domestic economic recovery momentum is weak, but asset valuations are low, and market sentiment has warmed up. The risk of a significant decline is low [8] Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, the gold main contract closed at 938.1 with a decline of 0.44%, and the silver main contract closed at 11,332 with a decline of 1.18% [10] - Global economic data and trends are favorable for precious metals, but the recent rise has been large, and the pricing is full [10][11] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures had a slight correction. The spot prices of billets, rebar, and hot - rolled coils are given [13] - In the medium term, rebar demand is weak, supply is over - capacity, and inventory pressure is high. Hot - rolled coils may have a similar trend [13] Iron Ore - On the previous trading day, iron ore futures had a slight correction. The spot prices of PB powder and Super Special powder are provided [15] - Iron ore demand is supported in the short term, but the medium - term supply - demand pattern may weaken [15] Coking Coal and Coke - On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures fluctuated and consolidated. Coking coal supply is tight, and coke procurement prices have been raised [18] - Technically, coking coal and coke futures are strengthening in the short term [18] Ferroalloys - On the previous trading day, the manganese - silicon main contract fell 0.59% to 5772 yuan/ton, and the silicon - iron main contract fell 0.07% to 5542 yuan/ton [20] - Supply is in excess in the short term, but costs are rising, and there may be long - position opportunities at low levels [20][21] Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, INE crude oil oscillated upward due to European sanctions on Russia. US oil and gas rig counts increased [22] - Multiple factors are favorable for crude oil prices, and focus on long - position opportunities [23][24] Fuel Oil - On the previous trading day, fuel oil rose significantly due to the rise in crude oil and sanctions on Russia. The market structure of fuel oil has recovered [25] - Singapore's fuel oil supply is tight, and sanctions on Russia are favorable for fuel oil prices. Focus on long - position opportunities [25][26] Synthetic Rubber - On the previous trading day, the synthetic rubber main contract rose 0.14%. Supply - side factors led to a rebound, and it will run in a wide - range volatile manner [27] Natural Rubber - On the previous trading day, the natural rubber main contract and 20 - grade rubber main contract rose. Supply is affected by weather, and demand and inventory are changing [29] - Focus on long - position opportunities [30] PVC - On the previous trading day, the PVC main contract fell 0.36%. Supply exceeds demand, but the downward space may be limited [31] - Pay attention to changes in exports and supply reduction after the holiday [31] Urea - On the previous trading day, the urea main contract rose 0.74%. Supply pressure has eased, and demand is picking up [34] - The downside space is limited [35] PX - On the previous trading day, the PX main contract rose 0.52%. PXN and PX - MX spreads are given. Supply and import data are provided [36] - Short - term supply - demand structure has improved, and it may have an oscillatory adjustment with bottom support [36] PTA - On the previous trading day, the PTA2601 main contract rose 0.27%. Supply and demand data, as well as processing fees, are provided [37] - It may run in a volatile manner with support at the bottom [37] Ethylene Glycol - On the previous trading day, the ethylene glycol main contract fell 0.22%. Supply, inventory, and demand data are provided [38] - It may run in a volatile manner with limited downside space [38] Short - Fiber - On the previous trading day, the short - fiber 2512 main contract fell 0.1%. Supply, demand, and processing fee data are provided [39][40] - It may follow the cost to run in a volatile manner [40] Bottle Chips - On the previous trading day, the bottle chips 2601 main contract rose 0.11%. Supply, demand, and processing fee data are provided [41] - It is expected to follow the cost side to run in a volatile manner [41] Lithium Carbonate - On the previous trading day, the main contract rose 1.33% to 79,520 yuan/ton. Supply is high, and demand is improving [42] - Pay attention to the sustainability of consumption [43] Copper - On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper rose significantly. Current copper prices are rising, but downstream demand is weak [44] - Multiple factors are favorable for copper prices. Focus on long - position opportunities [44][45] Tin - On the previous trading day, the main contract fell 0.32% to 282,250 yuan/ton. Supply is tight, and demand has some resilience [46] - It is expected to run in a volatile and upward - biased manner [46] Nickel - On the previous trading day, the main contract rose 0.23% to 122,260 yuan/ton. Supply concerns and demand conditions are provided [48] - It is expected to run in a volatile manner [48] Soybean Meal and Soybean Oil - On the previous trading day, the soybean meal main contract rose 0.58% to 2933 yuan/ton, and the soybean oil main contract fell 0.15% to 8194 yuan/ton. Supply, demand, and inventory data are provided [50] - Consider long - position opportunities for soybean meal call options; for soybean oil, temporarily wait and see [51] Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil is falling and oscillating. Indonesian biodiesel consumption has increased, and Malaysian exports have risen [52] - Temporarily wait and see [52] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed prices are affected by other vegetable oils. Domestic import data for rapeseed, rapeseed oil, and rapeseed meal are provided [53][54] - Temporarily wait and see for rapeseed oil [55] Cotton - Domestic and foreign cotton prices oscillated. Sino - US negotiations are ongoing, and domestic cotton production is expected to be high [56] - The upside space of cotton prices is limited [57][58] Sugar - Zhengzhou sugar is weakly oscillating, and the overseas market is falling due to expected supply growth. Brazilian production data are provided [59] - There is certain support below the price [61][62] Apples - Domestic apple futures fluctuated. The opening price is higher than last year, and there are issues with apple diseases and production forecasts [63] - Wait and see [64] Live Pigs - The national average price of live pigs is rising. Supply and demand data, as well as cost and inventory information, are provided [65] - Consider short - term profit - taking on short positions and wait for short - selling opportunities on rebounds [66] Eggs - Egg prices are rising, but costs are high, and the supply is increasing. Inventory and consumption data are provided [67] - Hold short positions [69] Corn and Starch - Corn and corn starch futures prices are provided. Supply, demand, and inventory data for corn and corn starch are given [70][71] - Corn prices are under pressure, and it is advisable to wait and see; corn starch has weak production and demand with high inventory [71][72]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the text. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. The market risk preference has significantly increased, and the trend of treasury bond futures is not clear [7]. - The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak. The market sentiment has warmed up recently, and the increase of the market is large with high volatility. For stock index futures, those who hold long positions can gradually take profits [8]. - The global trade and financial environment is complex. The "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends are beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of precious metals. However, the recent increase is large, so investors can take profits on long positions and then wait and see [10]. - For steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coil, the medium - term weakness is difficult to change. Investors can focus on short - selling opportunities at high levels during rebounds [13]. - The short - term supply - demand pattern of iron ore supports prices, but it may weaken in the medium term. Investors can focus on buying opportunities during pull - backs [15]. - For coking coal and coke, the supply is slightly tight, and the demand is at a high level. The short - term trend is strong, and investors can focus on buying opportunities during pull - backs [16]. - Ferroalloys are in a state of short - term oversupply, but the cost is at a low level with limited downward space. Investors can consider long - position opportunities at low levels when the spot falls into the loss range again [18]. - For crude oil, due to US sanctions on Russia and other factors, there are long - position opportunities in the main contract [20]. - Fuel oil follows the rise of crude oil, and the supply in Singapore is suddenly tight. There are long - position opportunities in the main contract [22]. - Synthetic rubber is expected to fluctuate. The market should pay attention to the raw material market and supply changes [25]. - Natural rubber may follow the macro - led market. There are long - position opportunities [27]. - For PVC, the supply exceeds demand, but the downward space is limited. The market should focus on supply - side changes [30]. - The downward space of urea is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate narrowly [33]. - Short - term PX may fluctuate and adjust with support at the bottom. The market should pay attention to crude oil changes and macro - policies [36]. - Short - term PTA may fluctuate, and the market should pay attention to oil price changes [37]. - Short - term ethylene glycol may fluctuate with limited downward space. The market should pay attention to port inventory and import changes [39]. - Short - term short - fiber may fluctuate following the cost. The market should pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [40]. - Bottle chips are expected to fluctuate following the cost. The market should control risks [42]. - For lithium carbonate, in the pattern of strong supply and demand, the social inventory is gradually decreasing. The market should pay attention to the sustainability of consumption [43]. - For copper, there are long - position opportunities in the main contract of Shanghai copper due to the non - resumption of Indonesian copper mines and the upcoming Sino - US talks [44]. - Tin prices are expected to fluctuate strongly due to tight supply and certain demand resilience [47]. - Nickel is expected to fluctuate. The market should pay attention to the risk of significant improvement in macro - policies [49]. - For soybean meal, investors can consider long - position opportunities for call options in the support range after adjustment; for soybean oil, it is recommended to wait and see [52]. - For palm oil, it is recommended to wait and see [54]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, it is recommended to wait and see for rapeseed oil [56]. - Cotton prices are expected to be under pressure [58]. - For sugar, it is recommended to wait and see [61]. - For apples, it is recommended to wait and see [64]. - For live pigs, after short - term profit - taking on short positions, investors can wait and see and look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds [66]. - For eggs, investors can continue to hold short positions [69]. - For corn and corn starch, it is advisable to wait and see for corn, and corn starch may follow the corn market [70]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Treasury Bonds - The previous trading day, treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The central bank carried out 2125 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on October 23, with a net withdrawal of 235 billion yuan on the same day. The treasury bond futures are expected to have no trend - like market [5]. Stock Index - The previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed trends. The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak. The market sentiment has warmed up recently, and the increase is large with high volatility [8]. Precious Metals - The previous trading day, the gold main contract fell, and the silver main contract rose. The "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends and central bank gold - buying support the price of precious metals, but the recent increase is large [10]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - The previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rebounded slightly. In the medium term, the price of finished products is dominated by industrial supply - demand logic. The demand for rebar is still declining year - on - year, and the inventory pressure is obvious. The trend of hot - rolled coil is similar to that of rebar [13]. Iron Ore - The previous trading day, iron ore futures fluctuated and sorted out. The demand supports the price in the short term, but the supply - demand pattern may weaken in the medium term [15]. Coking Coal and Coke - The previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures rose significantly. The supply of coking coal is slightly tight, and the demand for coke is at a high level. The short - term trend is strong [16]. Ferroalloys - The previous trading day, the manganese - silicon and silicon - iron main contracts rose. The supply of ferroalloys is in a short - term oversupply state, but the cost is at a low level with limited downward space [18]. Crude Oil - The previous trading day, INE crude oil rose significantly due to US sanctions on Russia. The increase in US crude oil production is difficult, and the geopolitical situation is beneficial to the price of crude oil [20]. Fuel Oil - The previous trading day, fuel oil rose significantly following crude oil. The supply in Singapore is suddenly tight, which is beneficial to the price [22]. Synthetic Rubber - The previous trading day, the synthetic rubber main contract rose. The supply - side drives the market to stop falling and rebound, but the raw material side is bearish. It is expected to fluctuate [25]. Natural Rubber - The previous trading day, the natural rubber main contract rose. Affected by the Sino - US trade friction, it may follow the macro - led market [27]. PVC - The previous trading day, the PVC main contract rose. The supply exceeds demand, but the downward space is limited. The market should focus on export and supply reduction after the festival [30]. Urea - The previous trading day, the urea main contract rose. It is expected to fluctuate narrowly. The supply has recovered, and the demand has stabilized at a low level [33]. PX - The previous trading day, the PX main contract rose. The short - term supply - demand structure has improved, and the cost - side crude oil rebounds. It may fluctuate and adjust [36]. PTA - The previous trading day, the PTA main contract rose. The short - term processing fee has dropped significantly, and the cost - side crude oil has recovered. It may fluctuate [37]. Ethylene Glycol - The previous trading day, the ethylene glycol main contract rose. The supply increases, the inventory may decrease slightly, and the demand is expected to improve. It may fluctuate [39]. Short - Fiber - The previous trading day, the short - fiber main contract rose. The short - term supply is at a relatively high level, the demand improves, and it may fluctuate following the cost [40]. Bottle Chips - The previous trading day, the bottle - chip main contract rose. The load has slightly increased, the export growth has slowed down, and it may fluctuate following the cost [42]. Lithium Carbonate - The previous trading day, the lithium carbonate main contract rose. The supply and demand are both strong, and the social inventory is gradually decreasing [43]. Copper - The previous trading day, Shanghai copper rose significantly. The non - resumption of Indonesian copper mines and the upcoming Sino - US talks support the price [44]. Tin - The previous trading day, the tin main contract rose. The supply is tight, and the demand has certain resilience. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly [47]. Nickel - The previous trading day, the nickel main contract rose. The supply is in an oversupply state, and it is expected to fluctuate [49]. Soybean Meal and Soybean Oil - The previous trading day, the soybean meal main contract rose, and the soybean oil main contract fell. The market expects the export to improve. The supply of soybeans is relatively loose, and the cost provides certain support [52]. Palm Oil - The Malaysian palm oil closed higher. The domestic inventory is at a medium level in the past 7 years. It is recommended to wait and see [54]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The previous trading day, rapeseed closed higher. The inventory of rapeseed in China is at a low level, the rapeseed meal inventory is at a high level, and the rapeseed oil inventory is at a high - level. It is recommended to wait and see for rapeseed oil [56]. Cotton - The previous trading day, domestic Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated and rose. The new - season domestic cotton has a strong expectation of a bumper harvest, and the price is expected to be under pressure [58]. Sugar - The previous trading day, Zhengzhou sugar bottomed out and rebounded. The global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus, which restricts the price rebound. It is recommended to wait and see [61]. Apples - The previous trading day, domestic apple futures fluctuated at a high level. The late - maturing apples are of poor quality this year, and the opening price is higher than last year. It is recommended to wait and see [64]. Live Pigs - The previous day, the national average price of live pigs rose slightly. The supply in October is expected to increase, and it is recommended to take short - term profit on short positions and then wait and see [66]. Eggs - The previous trading day, the average price of eggs in the main producing and selling areas rose. The supply in October is expected to increase, and the consumption may be lower than expected. It is recommended to continue to hold short positions [69]. Corn and Corn Starch - The previous trading day, the corn and corn - starch main contracts rose. The new - season corn harvest is advancing, and the price is expected to be under pressure. Corn starch may follow the corn market [70].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum remains weak, and it is expected that the monetary policy will remain loose. It is expected that Treasury bond futures will have no trend - based market, and caution should be maintained [6]. - The domestic economic situation is stable, but the recovery momentum is not strong. The stock index market is expected to have increased volatility, and existing long positions can be profit - taken [8]. - The global trade and financial environment is complex. Precious metals have seen a large increase recently, and existing long positions can be closed for profit and then wait and see [10]. - The price of rebar and hot - rolled coils is expected to remain weak in the medium term. Investors can look for short - selling opportunities at high levels during rebounds [12]. - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore supports prices in the short term but may weaken in the medium term. Investors can look for buying opportunities during pullbacks [14]. - Coke and coking coal futures are expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term. Investors can look for buying opportunities during pullbacks [16]. - Ferroalloys are expected to continue to have an oversupply situation in the short term. After a decline, investors can consider long - position opportunities when the spot market falls into the loss range again [18]. - There are both positive and negative factors for crude oil. Investors can focus on long - position opportunities for the main crude oil contract [20]. - For fuel oil, investors can widen the price spread between high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils [24]. - Synthetic rubber is expected to oscillate [26]. - Natural rubber investors can focus on long - position opportunities [29]. - For PVC, investors should pay attention to changes on the supply side [32]. - Urea is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range this week [34]. - PX is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short term, with support at the bottom [36]. - PTA is expected to oscillate in the short term, and investors should be cautious and pay attention to oil price changes [38]. - Ethylene glycol is expected to oscillate in the short term, and investors should pay attention to port inventory and import changes [39]. - Short - fiber is expected to oscillate following costs in the short term, and investors should pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [41]. - Bottle chips are expected to oscillate following the cost side in the future, and investors should control risks [42]. - For lithium carbonate, pay attention to the sustainability of consumption [44]. - Investors can focus on long - position opportunities for the main Shanghai copper contract [46]. - Tin prices are expected to oscillate and strengthen [48]. - Nickel prices are expected to oscillate [50]. - Palm oil investors should wait and see for the time being [53]. - Cotton prices are expected to face pressure above [58]. - For sugar, investors should wait and see [61]. - For apples, investors should wait and see [63]. - For live pigs, consider short - term profit - taking on short positions and then wait and see, and consider reverse - arbitrage strategies for arbitrage [66]. - For eggs, consider holding short positions [68]. - For corn and starch, it is advisable to wait and see, and corn starch is expected to follow the corn market [72]. Summary by Related Catalogs Treasury Bonds - The previous trading day, most Treasury bond futures closed higher. The central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, with a net investment of 94.7 billion yuan. It is expected that there will be no trend - based market, and caution should be maintained [5][6]. Stock Index - The previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The Asset Management Association of China is about to release a draft for soliciting opinions on the rules for the performance comparison benchmarks of public funds. The market is expected to have increased volatility, and existing long positions can be profit - taken [8]. Precious Metals - The previous trading day, gold and silver futures prices declined. The global trade and financial environment is complex, which is beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. However, the recent increase in precious metals is large, and existing long positions can be closed for profit and then wait and see [10]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - The previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures showed weak oscillations. The price of rebar is expected to remain weak in the medium term, and investors can look for short - selling opportunities at high levels during rebounds [12]. Iron Ore - The previous trading day, iron ore futures oscillated and consolidated. The supply - demand pattern supports prices in the short term but may weaken in the medium term. Investors can look for buying opportunities during pullbacks [14]. Coke and Coking Coal - The previous trading day, coke and coking coal futures rebounded slightly. They are expected to continue to oscillate in the short term, and investors can look for buying opportunities during pullbacks [16]. Ferroalloys - The previous trading day, manganese - silicon and silicon - iron futures rose. Ferroalloys are expected to continue to have an oversupply situation in the short term. After a decline, investors can consider long - position opportunities when the spot market falls into the loss range again [18]. Crude Oil - The previous trading day, INE crude oil bottomed out and rebounded. There are both positive and negative factors for crude oil, and investors can focus on long - position opportunities for the main contract [20]. Fuel Oil - The previous trading day, fuel oil rose significantly. Singapore fuel oil sales declined in September, indicating weak consumption. Investors can widen the price spread between high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils [22][23]. Synthetic Rubber - The previous trading day, synthetic rubber rose. It is expected to oscillate, and investors should pay attention to changes in the raw material market and supply [25]. Natural Rubber - The previous trading day, natural rubber rose. Affected by Sino - US trade frictions, the overall sentiment of bulk commodities is bearish. Investors can focus on long - position opportunities [27]. PVC - The previous trading day, PVC rose. The supply - demand situation of PVC continues to be oversupplied, and investors should pay attention to changes on the supply side [30]. Urea - The previous trading day, urea rose. It is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range this week [33]. PX - The previous trading day, PX rose. The short - term supply - demand structure of PX changes little, and it is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short term, with support at the bottom [36]. PTA - The previous trading day, PTA rose. The short - term processing fee of PTA has declined significantly, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term. Investors should pay attention to oil price changes [37]. Ethylene Glycol - The previous trading day, ethylene glycol rose. The supply of ethylene glycol is increasing, and the demand improvement is limited. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and investors should pay attention to port inventory and import changes [39]. Short - Fiber - The previous trading day, short - fiber rose. The short - term supply of short - fiber remains at a relatively high level, and it is expected to oscillate following costs. Investors should pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [40]. Bottle Chips - The previous trading day, bottle chips rose. The export growth rate of bottle chips has slowed down, and it is expected to oscillate following the cost side [42]. Lithium Carbonate - The previous trading day, lithium carbonate rose. The supply and demand of lithium carbonate are both strong, and investors should pay attention to the sustainability of consumption [43]. Copper - The previous trading day, Shanghai copper bottomed out and rebounded. Sino - US tensions have eased, and investors can focus on long - position opportunities for the main contract [45]. Tin - The previous trading day, tin declined. The supply of tin is tight, and the demand has certain resilience. Tin prices are expected to oscillate and strengthen [47]. Nickel - The previous trading day, nickel rose slightly. The supply of nickel is in an oversupply situation, and nickel prices are expected to oscillate [50]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - No specific analysis content provided, only mentioned that palm oil fell for three consecutive days. Palm Oil - Palm oil fell for three consecutive days. There are many influencing factors, and investors should wait and see for the time being [53]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Similar to palm oil, there are many influencing factors, and investors should wait and see for the time being [55]. Cotton - The previous trading day, domestic cotton rose, and overseas cotton fell. Sino - US relations may improve, but cotton prices are expected to face pressure above [57]. Sugar - The previous trading day, domestic sugar rebounded after hitting the bottom, and overseas sugar declined. The Brazilian sugar production is expected to increase, and investors should wait and see [59]. Apples - The previous trading day, apple futures fluctuated at a high level. The quality of late - maturing apples this year is poor, and investors should wait and see [62]. Live Pigs - The previous trading day, the live pig futures contract rose. The supply in October is expected to increase. Consider short - term profit - taking on short positions and then wait and see, and consider reverse - arbitrage strategies for arbitrage [64]. Eggs - The previous trading day, egg prices were flat. The egg supply in October is expected to increase year - on - year, and consumption may fall short of expectations. Consider holding short positions [67]. Corn and Starch - The previous trading day, the corn futures contract fell, and the corn starch futures contract rose. The new - season corn harvest is advancing, and it is advisable to wait and see. Corn starch is expected to follow the corn market [69].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - In the fourth quarter, the production in the central - southern region of Brazil enters the seasonal production - reduction cycle, significantly reducing the global supply pressure. After the sharp decline of raw sugar, its valuation is moderately low, and the production cost in Brazil is around 15 - 16 cents. Although India and Thailand have strong production - increase expectations, their large - scale crushing will start around December, and the previous sharp decline of raw sugar has more or less reflected this expectation. The raw sugar price is significantly lower than the production costs of these two countries. [23] - Domestically, the expected production will increase slightly, large - scale crushing will start around mid - December, and the import volume in the fourth quarter may decline month - on - month. Overall, the supply pressure is not large. After the futures price drops to a relatively low level, it is significantly lower than the production cost, with strong support below, and the futures may have a phased rebound. [25] Section Summaries Brazil Enters Seasonal Production - Reduction Cycle - Brazil is one of the world's largest sugar producers and the largest sugar exporter. In the 2024/25 crushing season, the cumulative sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil was 4017 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 226 tons, and the sugar - making ratio was 48.14%. Different institutions have different forecasts for the 2025/26 crushing season sugar production in Brazil, with the focus on the impact of weather, sugar mill production strategies, and ethanol substitution effects. [2] - Starting from October, Brazil's sugar production enters the seasonal production - reduction cycle, greatly reducing the global supply pressure. The latest bi - weekly production data released by UNICA is slightly higher than market expectations. In the second half of September, 4085.5 tons of sugarcane were crushed in the central - southern region of Brazil, a year - on - year increase of 5.18%; sugar production was 313.7 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.76%. The cumulative sugar production was 3352.4 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.84%. [4][5] India and Thailand Expected to Increase Production but Not Yet Started Crushing - **India**: India's sugar production increase expectation is strong. In the 2024/25 crushing season, India's sugar production was about 2590 tons, far lower than expected. ISMA expects the sugar production in the 2025/26 crushing season to be 3490 tons. Considering the 400 - ton ethanol diversion, the actual sugar production will be around 3100 tons, an increase of about 500 tons compared to the previous year. Large - scale crushing will start around late December, and the production cost is around 18 - 19 cents per pound. [7][8] - **Thailand**: Thailand is a major global sugar - producing country and the second - largest sugar exporter. In the 2024/25 crushing season, Thailand's sugar production was 1014 tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.2%, ending the two - year consecutive decline. Different institutions predict that Thailand's sugar production in the 2025/26 crushing season will increase by 5% - 14%. [11] Domestic Supply and Demand Situation - **New - year domestic sugar production**: In the 2024/25 sugar - making period, domestic sugar production was 1116 tons, a year - on - year increase of 120 tons. Different institutions predict that the sugar production in the 2025/26 crushing season will be between 1120 and 1160 tons. Currently, Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang in the north have started production, with the estimated production at 70 - 75 tons. Large - scale crushing in the south will start in December, and the short - term domestic supply pressure is not large. [14] - **Fourth - quarter sugar imports decline month - on - month**: China's imported sugar is divided into in - quota and out - of - quota. In September 2025, China imported 55 tons of sugar, about 28 tons less than in August, a year - on - year increase of 35.8%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative imported sugar was 316 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.4%. Under the principle of annual total control and considering the decline in shipments from Brazil in September, the arrival volume of domestic sugar in the fourth quarter will decline month - on - month, which is conducive to reducing domestic supply pressure. [16] - **Syrup imports are controlled and the import volume drops significantly**: Since December 2024, the import declaration of Thai syrup and premixed powder has been suspended, and in March 2025, the import declaration of some sugar products (syrup and premixed powder) from Vietnam has also been suspended. In September 2025, the total import of syrup and white sugar premixed powder was 15.14 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.52 tons. From January to September 2025, the total import was 88.52 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 85.24 tons. [22]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs strengthening, and monetary policy is expected to remain loose. Treasury bond futures are expected to have no trend - based market, and caution is advised [6]. - Stock index futures are expected to have increased volatility. Existing long positions can be liquidated to take profits [9][10]. - Precious metals have risen significantly. After taking profits on long positions, investors can wait and see [11][12]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices are expected to remain weak in the medium term. Investors can look for short - selling opportunities at high levels during rebounds [14]. - Iron ore prices are supported in the short - term but may weaken in the medium - term. Investors can look for buying opportunities during pullbacks [16]. - Coking coal and coke futures are expected to continue to fluctuate in the short - term. Investors can look for buying opportunities during pullbacks [19]. - Ferroalloys may continue to have oversupply in the short - term. After a decline, investors can consider long positions at low levels when the spot market falls into a loss range [22]. - For crude oil, investors can focus on long - buying opportunities for the main contract [24]. - For fuel oil, investors can widen the spread between high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils [27]. - Synthetic rubber is expected to oscillate [28][29]. - Natural rubber investors can focus on long - buying opportunities [32]. - For PVC, investors should focus on supply - side changes [35]. - The downside space for urea is limited [38]. - PX may adjust weakly in a volatile manner in the short - term. Investors should control positions and pay attention to crude oil changes and macro - policy shifts [39]. - PTA is expected to oscillate in the short - term. Investors should be cautious, control risks, and pay attention to oil price changes [41]. - Ethylene glycol may operate weakly in a volatile manner in the short - term. Investors should pay attention to port inventory and import changes [42]. - Short - fiber is expected to oscillate following costs. Investors should control risks and pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [44]. - Bottle chips are expected to oscillate following the cost side. Investors should control risks [45]. - For lithium carbonate, attention should be paid to the sustainability of consumption [46]. - For copper, investors should temporarily wait and see [49]. - Tin prices are expected to oscillate strongly [50]. - Nickel prices are expected to oscillate [53]. - For soybean meal, after adjustment, investors can consider long positions in call options at the lower support range. For soybean oil, investors can temporarily wait and see [56]. - For palm oil, investors should temporarily wait and see [58]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, investors should temporarily wait and see [61]. - Cotton prices are expected to remain under pressure [65]. - For sugar, investors should wait and see [69]. - For apples, investors should wait and see [71]. - For live pigs, after short - term profit - taking on short positions, investors can wait and see and look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds. For arbitrage, a reverse arbitrage strategy can be considered [73]. - For eggs, short positions should be held [76]. - For corn and starch, it is advisable to wait and see [79]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Treasury Bonds - The previous trading day, treasury bond futures closed up across the board. The central bank conducted 159.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 6.85 billion yuan. The macro - economic recovery momentum needs strengthening, and treasury bond futures are expected to have no trend - based market [5][6]. Stock Index - The previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak. Asset valuations are low, and market sentiment has warmed up. Volatility is expected to increase, and existing long positions can be liquidated [8][9][10]. Precious Metals - The previous trading day, gold and silver futures rose. The global trade and financial environment is complex, and central bank gold purchases support prices. However, the recent increase has been large, and after taking profits on long positions, investors can wait and see [11][12]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - The previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures oscillated weakly. In the medium - term, the supply - demand relationship in the industry dominates. Rebar demand is declining year - on - year, and inventory pressure has increased. Prices are expected to remain weak, and investors can short - sell at high levels during rebounds [13][14]. Iron Ore - The previous trading day, iron ore futures oscillated and sorted. Demand supports prices in the short - term, but the supply - demand pattern may weaken in the medium - term. Investors can look for buying opportunities during pullbacks [16]. Coking Coal and Coke - The previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures significantly corrected. Coking coal supply pressure is not large, and coke prices have started to rise after two rounds of cuts. Futures are expected to continue to oscillate in the short - term, and investors can buy during pullbacks [18][19]. Ferroalloys - The previous trading day, manganese - silicon futures fell, and silicon - iron futures rose. Manganese ore supply has increased, and the cost of ferroalloys has risen. Production remains high, and demand is weak. There may be short - term oversupply, and investors can consider long positions at low levels [21][22]. Crude Oil - The previous trading day, INE crude oil hit a new low and then rebounded. The number of US oil and gas rigs has increased, and the global oil market may face an oversupply next year. However, there is support near the integer level, and investors can focus on long - buying opportunities [23][24]. Fuel Oil - The previous trading day, fuel oil hit a new low and then rebounded. The Asian fuel oil market is affected by sufficient supply. There are different views on the supply of high - sulfur fuel oil at the end of the year. Investors can widen the spread between high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils [25][27]. Synthetic Rubber - The previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures rose. The increase in short - and medium - term maintenance expectations has driven the market to stop falling and rebound. It is expected to oscillate, and investors should pay attention to raw material prices and supply changes [28][29]. Natural Rubber - The previous trading day, natural rubber futures rose. Affected by Sino - US trade frictions, the overall sentiment of bulk commodities is bearish. The supply in Thailand is affected by rainfall, and demand has recovered. Investors can focus on long - buying opportunities [30][32]. PVC - The previous trading day, PVC futures fell. The supply - demand imbalance persists, but the downward space may be limited. After the holiday, attention should be paid to exports and supply reduction [33][35]. Urea - The previous trading day, urea futures rose slightly. After prices fell below the lowest level at the beginning of the year, there was a small rebound. Supply has increased, and demand has improved slightly. The downward space is limited [36][38]. PX - The previous trading day, PX futures rose. The PX load has decreased, and imports have declined. The short - term supply - demand balance has loosened, and prices may adjust weakly in a volatile manner [39]. PTA - The previous trading day, PTA futures oscillated. Supply has increased, and demand has shown limited improvement. Processing fees have declined, and prices are expected to oscillate. Attention should be paid to oil prices [40][41]. Ethylene Glycol - The previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures fell. Supply has increased, inventory has accumulated, and demand support is limited. Prices are expected to oscillate weakly, and attention should be paid to port inventory and imports [42]. Short - Fiber - The previous trading day, short - fiber futures rose slightly. Supply remains at a relatively high level, demand is average, and cost support is weak. Prices are expected to oscillate following costs [43][44]. Bottle Chips - The previous trading day, bottle - chip futures oscillated. Processing fees have increased, supply has risen, and export growth has slowed. Prices are expected to oscillate following the cost side [45]. Lithium Carbonate - The previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures fell. Supply remains at a high level, and demand in the energy storage and power battery sectors has improved. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of consumption [46]. Copper - The previous trading day, Shanghai copper futures rose. Sino - US relations have eased, and the suspension of production of an Indonesian copper mine supports prices. Investors should temporarily wait and see [47][49]. Tin - The previous trading day, tin futures rose. The supply of tin ore is tight, and demand shows some resilience. Prices are expected to oscillate strongly [50]. Nickel - The previous trading day, nickel futures fell. Concerns about supply have resurfaced, but the market is still in an oversupply situation. Prices are expected to oscillate [53]. Soybean Meal and Soybean Oil - The previous trading day, soybean meal and soybean oil futures fell. The soybean crushing volume has recovered, and inventory pressure remains. For soybean meal, long positions in call options can be considered after adjustment; for soybean oil, wait and see [55][56]. Palm Oil - The previous trading day, Malaysian palm oil prices fell. EU policies have changed, and Chinese imports have decreased. Inventory has accumulated. Investors should temporarily wait and see [57][58]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed prices rose slightly. Chinese imports have changed, and inventory levels vary. Investors should temporarily wait and see [59][61]. Cotton - The previous trading day, domestic cotton futures rose. Sino - US relations may improve, which is beneficial to cotton trade. Domestic cotton production is expected to be high, and prices are expected to remain under pressure [62][64][65]. Sugar - The previous trading day, Zhengzhou sugar futures oscillated at a low level. Brazilian sugar production has slightly exceeded expectations, and the global sugar supply may be in surplus. Domestic northern regions have started sugar production. Investors should wait and see [66][68][69]. Apples - The previous trading day, domestic apple futures oscillated at a high level. This year's apple production has increased slightly, and the quality of late - maturing apples is poor. The opening price is higher than last year. Investors should wait and see [70][71]. Live Pigs - The previous trading day, the national average price of live pigs rose. Supply is expected to increase in the second half of the month. After short - term profit - taking on short positions, investors can wait and see and look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds [72][73]. Eggs - The previous trading day, egg prices fell. The inventory of laying hens is at a high level, and supply is increasing. Consumption may be lower than expected. Short positions should be held [74][76]. Corn and Starch - The previous trading day, corn and corn starch futures rose. The new - season corn harvest is under pressure, and inventory is increasing. Demand shows a slight increase. It is advisable to wait and see [77][78][79].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and monetary policy is expected to remain loose. Different commodities have different market trends and investment strategies due to their own supply - demand relationships and external factors [6][22]. Summary by Commodity Bonds - Last trading day, bond futures closed down across the board. The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and it is expected that there will be no trending bond futures market, so a certain degree of caution is required [5][6]. Stock Index Futures - Last trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. Although the domestic economy is stable, the recovery momentum is weak. However, domestic asset valuations are low, and the market sentiment has increased recently. It is expected that the market volatility will increase, and existing long positions can be gradually liquidated for profit [8]. Precious Metals - Last trading day, precious metal futures declined. The current global trade and financial environment is complex, which is beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. But the recent increase in precious metals has been large, and previous long positions can be appropriately closed for profit [10]. Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - Last trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures oscillated weakly. In the medium - term, the steel price is dominated by the industrial supply - demand logic. The demand for rebar is still declining year - on - year, and the inventory pressure has increased significantly. It is expected that the rebar price will remain weak in the medium - term, and hot - rolled coil may follow the same trend. Investors can focus on shorting opportunities at high levels during rebounds [12][13]. Iron Ore - Last trading day, iron ore futures slightly corrected. In the short - term, the supply - demand pattern still supports the price, but it may weaken in the medium - term. Technically, it may oscillate weakly in the short - term. Investors can focus on buying opportunities during corrections [15]. Coking Coal and Coke - Last trading day, coking coal and coke futures rose significantly. The supply pressure of coking coal is not large, and the demand for coke remains high. Technically, they may continue to oscillate in the short - term. Investors can focus on buying opportunities during corrections [17][18]. Ferroalloys - Last trading day, ferroalloy futures rose slightly. The current supply of ferroalloys is still in excess in the short - term, but the cost has increased at a low level. After a decline, investors can consider long positions at low levels when the spot market falls into a loss again [20][21]. Crude Oil - Last trading day, INE crude oil oscillated downward due to concerns about supply surplus. Although the Baker Hughes rig count has increased, the increase in US crude oil production is still challenging. Geopolitical risks have eased, which is negative for crude oil prices, but there is some support near the integer level. Investors can focus on long - buying opportunities for the main crude oil contract [22][23]. Fuel Oil - Last trading day, fuel oil slightly oscillated and remained near recent lows. The Singapore fuel oil sales declined in September, indicating weak consumption. The main fuel oil contract strategy is to widen the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils [24][26]. Synthetic Rubber - Last trading day, synthetic rubber futures declined. In the short - term, the butadiene rubber market will maintain a weak and wide - range oscillation. The market may stop falling and rebound due to supply factors. Investors should pay attention to the raw material market and supply changes [27]. Natural Rubber - Last trading day, natural rubber futures declined. Affected by the Sino - US trade friction, the overall sentiment of bulk commodities is bearish. The rubber price may follow the macro - led market. Investors can focus on long - buying opportunities [29][31]. PVC - Last trading day, PVC futures declined. The current oversupply situation of PVC continues, but the downward space may be limited. After the festival, investors should focus on exports and supply reduction. The main strategy is to pay attention to supply - side changes [32][34]. Urea - Last trading day, urea futures closed flat. Last week, the decline of urea stopped and the price rebounded slightly. It is expected to fluctuate narrowly this week. The supply has increased, and the demand has shown some improvement. The downward space is limited [35][37]. PX - Last trading day, PX futures declined. In the short - term, the supply - demand balance of PX has become looser. The PXN spread is relatively strong, but the cost is weak and the demand support is insufficient. PX may adjust weakly in an oscillatory manner. Investors should control their positions and pay attention to crude oil and macro - policy changes [38]. PTA - Last trading day, PTA futures declined. In the short - term, the PTA processing fee has dropped significantly, and the inventory is at a low level with some support at the bottom. However, the demand improvement is limited, and the external crude oil price is weakly adjusted. PTA may oscillate. Investors should be cautious, control risks, and pay attention to oil price changes [39][40]. Ethylene Glycol - Last trading day, ethylene glycol futures declined. Recently, the supply has increased, the inventory has continued to accumulate, the demand improvement is limited, and the cost of crude oil is weak. Ethylene glycol may oscillate weakly in the short - term. Investors should pay attention to port inventory and import changes [41]. Short - Fiber - Last trading day, short - fiber futures declined. In the short - term, the short - fiber supply remains at a relatively high level, the demand is average, the supply - demand contradiction is not significant, but the cost support is weak. It may oscillate following the cost. Investors should control risks and pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [42][43]. Bottle Chips - Last trading day, bottle - chip futures declined. Recently, the raw material price has been weakly adjusted in an oscillatory manner, the bottle - chip load has slightly increased, and the export growth has slowed down. It is expected to oscillate following the cost. Investors should control risks [44]. Lithium Carbonate - Last trading day, lithium carbonate futures declined. The supply of lithium carbonate is at a high level, and the demand from the energy storage and power battery sectors has improved. The social inventory is gradually being depleted. Investors should pay attention to the sustainability of consumption [45]. Copper - Last trading day, Shanghai copper oscillated upward due to the easing of Sino - US tensions. The dollar index is at a phased low, and copper prices are strongly adjusted at a high level. The reopening of the Indonesian copper mine has been delayed, and the Sino - US negotiation has improved again, which supports copper prices. The main Shanghai copper contract can be temporarily observed [46][48]. Tin - Last trading day, tin futures rose. The supply of tin is generally tight, and the demand shows some resilience. The refined tin inventory is further depleted. It is expected that the tin price will oscillate strongly [49]. Nickel - Last trading day, nickel futures rose. The market is worried about the supply due to the change in the RKAB approval in Indonesia. The mine price has weakened, and the high - grade nickel ore is still in short supply. The stainless - steel consumption is still weak, and the primary nickel is in an oversupply situation. It is expected that the nickel price will oscillate [51][52]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - Last trading day, soybean meal and soybean oil futures rose. The domestic soybean arrival volume is high, and the oil - mill crushing continues to be in loss. The Brazilian soybean arrival price has slightly declined, providing some cost support. New - season US soybeans are being harvested, which may bring some short - term pressure. After the adjustment of soybean meal, investors can consider long - call options in the support range. Soybean oil is slightly stronger than soybean meal, but the supply - demand is weak, so it is advisable to temporarily observe [54][55]. Palm Oil - The Malaysian palm oil market was closed. The Malaysian palm oil inventory in September was higher than expected. The export volume from October 1 - 20 increased compared with the previous month. The domestic palm oil inventory is at a medium level in the past 7 years. Investors can consider a long - biased strategy during corrections [56][57]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed futures closed down. The domestic rapeseed inventory has decreased, the rapeseed meal inventory has increased, and the rapeseed oil inventory has decreased. The main strategy for rapeseed oil is to consider a long - biased strategy during corrections [58][59]. Cotton - Last trading day, domestic Zhengzhou cotton oscillated upward due to the improvement of Sino - US relations. The new - season domestic cotton is expected to have a bumper harvest, and the cotton price is under pressure from hedging and harvesting. It is expected that the cotton price will remain under pressure [60][63]. Sugar - Last trading day, Zhengzhou sugar oscillated at a low level. The Brazilian sugar production slightly exceeded expectations. The global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus, which restricts the sugar price rebound. The domestic northern region has started sugar production, and the import volume in the fourth quarter is expected to decline. It is advisable to observe [64][66]. Apples - Last trading day, domestic apple futures rose significantly. The late - maturing apples are of poor quality this year, and the opening price is higher than last year. It is advisable to observe [67][68]. Pigs - Yesterday, the national average pig price rose. The supply is expected to increase in the second half of October. After short - term profit - taking of short positions, investors can temporarily observe and wait for short - selling opportunities on rebounds. The arbitrage strategy can consider reverse arbitrage [69][71]. Eggs - Last trading day, the average egg price in the main production and sales areas declined. The egg supply is expected to increase year - on - year in October, and the consumption may be lower than expected. Short positions can be held [72][73]. Corn and Corn Starch - Last trading day, corn and corn - starch futures rose. The new - season corn harvest is advancing, and the corn price may be under pressure. The corn - starch production and demand are weak, and the inventory is high. It may follow the corn market. It is advisable to observe [74][76].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - data in September were mixed, and the recovery momentum needed to be strengthened. The domestic economic recovery couldn't be achieved overnight, and the economy showed a state of having a bottom but lacking upward momentum. Macroeconomic policies should increase support to boost market confidence. "Promoting domestic demand and combating involution" would be important long - term policy focuses. The financial market was in a state of "weak reality, strong expectation", and in 2025, the macro - economy and asset prices were expected to continue the upward - repair trend [3][38]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Manufacturing PMI Rebounded Month - on - Month but Remained Below the Threshold - In September, the manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. Large - scale enterprises' PMI was 51.0%, up 0.2 percentage points; medium - sized enterprises' PMI was 48.8%, down 0.1 percentage points; small - sized enterprises' PMI was 48.2%, up 1.6 percentage points. Among the 5 sub - indexes, the production index and supplier delivery time index were above the threshold, while the new order index, raw material inventory index, and employment index were below it [4]. - The non - manufacturing business activity index in September was 50.0%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. The construction industry's business activity index was 49.3%, up 0.2 percentage points, and the service industry's was 50.1%, down 0.4 percentage points. Overall, the manufacturing was still below the threshold, indicating low prosperity, significant demand contraction, and insufficient economic recovery momentum [7]. 2. In September, CPI Declined 0.3% Year - on - Year and PPI Fell 2.9% Year - on - Year, Both Showing Improvement - In September 2025, the national CPI decreased 0.3% year - on - year. The average CPI from January to September was 0.1% lower than the same period last year. The CPI increased 0.1% month - on - month. Food prices decreased 4.4% year - on - year and increased 0.7% month - on - month [8][9]. - In September, the national PPI decreased 2.3% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month, and remained flat month - on - month. The average PPI from January to September was 2.8% lower than the same period last year. Industries such as coal, ferrous metals, and petrochemicals had large year - on - year declines, dragging down the PPI [11]. 3. In September, Imports and Exports Maintained High Growth Rates - In September, China's total import and export volume was $566.68 billion, a year - on - year increase of 7.9%. Exports were $328.57 billion, up 8.3% year - on - year, and imports were $238.12 billion, up 7.4% year - on - year. The trade surplus was $90.45 billion, an increase of $8.69 billion compared to the same period last year [13]. - In terms of countries, in September, China's exports to the US were $34.308 billion, with a year - on - year growth rate of - 16.1%; exports to the EU were $49.22 billion, with a growth rate of 7.6%; exports to ASEAN countries were $58.235 billion, up 16.9% year - on - year; and exports to Japan were $13.435 billion, with a year - on - year growth rate of 6.6%. Exports to ASEAN were gradually replacing those to the US [15]. - Since the second quarter, exports have been stronger than expected, showing strong resilience. In 2025, exports were likely to remain strong. The real risk for China's foreign trade was the potential decline in demand due to the increased risk of a US economic recession and the slowdown of the global economy [16]. 4. Credit Demand was Weak, and the Growth Rates of M1 and M2 Further Increased - At the end of September 2025, the stock of social financing scale was 437.08 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.7%. The balance of RMB loans to the real economy was 267.03 trillion yuan, up 6.4% year - on - year. The balance of foreign - currency loans to the real economy was 1.18 trillion yuan, down 18% year - on - year [18]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 30.09 trillion yuan, 4.42 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. The increase in RMB loans to the real economy was 14.54 trillion yuan, 851.2 billion yuan less than the same period last year [18]. - In terms of residents' credit in September, short - term loans increased by 142.1 billion yuan, 127.9 billion yuan less than the same period last year; medium - and long - term loans increased by 250 billion yuan, 20 billion yuan more than the same period last year. In terms of enterprises' credit, short - term loans increased by 710 billion yuan, 250 billion yuan more than the same period last year; medium - and long - term loans increased by 910 billion yuan, 50 billion yuan less than the same period last year; bill financing decreased by 402.6 billion yuan, 471.2 billion yuan less than the same period last year [19][21]. - At the end of September, the balance of broad - money (M2) was 335.38 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.4%. The balance of narrow - money (M1) was 113.15 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7.2%. The M1 - M2 gap narrowed to - 1.2%, indicating an improvement in macro - liquidity [22]. 5. Industrial Production Accelerated, while Consumption and Investment Growth Rates Continued to Decline - In September, the value - added of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 6.5% year - on - year, and 0.64% month - on - month. From January to September, it increased by 6.2% year - on - year [25]. - In September, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 4,197.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.0%. From January to September, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 36,587.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.5%. The consumption growth rate further declined in September, affected by policies and subsidy withdrawal, as well as the drop in oil prices [25][26]. - From January to September 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 37,153.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5%. Private fixed - asset investment decreased by 3.1% year - on - year. The growth rates of manufacturing investment, infrastructure investment, and real - estate development investment continued to decline [28]. 6. The Growth Rate of Real - Estate Sales Continued to Decline and was Moving Towards Stabilization - From January to September, the sales area of newly - built commercial housing was 658.35 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 5.5%; the sales volume was 6,304 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 7.9%. In September, the growth rates of real - estate sales volume and area continued to decline, and the real - estate market was still in the adjustment stage [30]. - From January to September, the construction area of real - estate development enterprises was 6.4858 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.4%. The new - construction area was 453.99 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 18.9%. The completed area was 311.29 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 15.3% [32]. - In September, the real - estate market continued the downward trend since the second and third quarters. However, the year - on - year decline in the sales area and volume of commercial housing was narrowing, and the inventory - reduction effect was emerging. The real - estate market was moving towards stabilization. The year - on - year decline in the sales area and volume of commercial housing would further narrow as the base decreased [34]. - At the end of September, the unsold area of commercial housing was 759.28 million square meters, 2.41 million square meters less than at the end of August. The real - estate development climate index in September was 92.78, showing a slight decline month - on - month. There was still room for further strengthening of real - estate policies, and the "market bottom" of this real - estate downward cycle was emerging. The first half of 2026 was expected to be a critical period for the real - estate market to stabilize [35][36][37].