Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The report analyzes various futures markets including bonds, stocks, precious metals, and commodities, and provides investment suggestions based on current market conditions and trends [5][7][11]. - For different commodities, it evaluates factors such as supply - demand relationships, policy impacts, and cost - profit situations to predict price movements and offer trading strategies [14][21][32]. Summary by Commodity Bonds - Last trading day, most bond futures closed down. The central bank conducted 84.7 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 5.07 billion yuan. Macro - economic recovery momentum needs strengthening, and monetary policy is expected to remain loose. The bond yield is at a relatively low level. It is suggested to stay cautious as there may be no trend - following opportunities [5][6]. Stocks - Last trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The Shanghai Stock Exchange released new regulations for the Sci - tech Innovation Growth Layer, and the Ministry of Finance issued a notice on insurance funds' long - term investment. Although the domestic economic recovery momentum is weak, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [7][9][10]. Precious Metals - Last trading day, gold and silver futures rose. Trump announced new tariff policies, and the global trade - financial environment is complex. The long - term bullish trend of precious metals is expected to continue due to factors like "de - globalization", "de - dollarization", central banks' gold purchases, and potential Fed rate cuts. It is recommended to consider going long on gold futures [11][12][13]. Steel Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - Last trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures continued to rebound. An important meeting at the beginning of the month emphasized supply - side management, but the real - estate downturn and over - capacity still suppress prices. The price rebound may be limited in the off - season. Technically, the short - term upward trend may continue. Investors can wait for short - selling opportunities after the rebound and pay attention to position management [14]. Iron Ore - Last trading day, iron ore futures continued to rise. Policy expectations boosted the market, but the supply - demand pattern has weakened marginally. The price valuation is relatively high. Technically, it found support at the previous low. Investors can look for low - buying opportunities and take profits in time, with light - position participation [16][17][18]. Coking Coal and Coke - Last trading day, coking coal and coke futures rose significantly. The meeting at the beginning of the month led to supply - contraction expectations, but the actual production capacity is recovering. Coke demand from steel mills is weak, but cost support exists. Technically, the short - term trend may remain strong. Investors can consider short - term long - buying or wait for mid - term short - selling opportunities, with light - position participation [19][20]. Ferroalloys - Last trading day, manganese - silicon and silicon - iron futures declined. Manganese ore supply is increasing, and iron - alloy production is rising while demand is weak, resulting in supply surplus. The cost has limited downward space, and if spot losses continue to expand, low - value call options can be considered [21][22]. Crude Oil - Last trading day, INE crude oil oscillated downward. Fund managers reduced net long positions, and the number of oil and gas rigs decreased. Summer demand provides some support, but tariff frictions and price caps on Russia restrict price increases. It is advisable to look for short - selling opportunities in the main contract [23][24][25]. Fuel Oil - Last trading day, fuel oil declined significantly. The Asian fuel oil market has sufficient supply, and trade frictions are negative for prices. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities in the main contract [26][27][28]. Synthetic Rubber - Last trading day, synthetic rubber futures rose. Raw material prices decreased, and the profit margin turned positive. Supply is relatively loose in the short term. Wait for the market to stabilize before participating in the rebound [29][30]. Natural Rubber - Last trading day, natural rubber futures rose. It is expected to maintain a relatively strong oscillation next week. Supply is increasing, demand is mixed, and inventory is slightly decreasing. It is advisable to pay attention to mid - term long - buying opportunities [30][31]. PVC - Last trading day, PVC futures declined. The supply - demand imbalance persists, but the downward space may be limited, and it may enter a bottom - oscillating stage. Supply decreased slightly, demand is weak, and exports are affected by tariffs. The profit margin has improved [32][35]. Urea - Last trading day, urea futures declined slightly. The domestic urea market will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, waiting for policy and demand to materialize. Supply remains high, demand is limited, and inventory is higher than expected. It is expected to be bullish in the medium term [36][37]. PX - Last trading day, PX futures declined. The supply - demand balance is tight in the short term, but the support from crude oil cost is insufficient. It will oscillate and adjust in the short term. Investors should participate cautiously and pay attention to crude oil price changes [38]. PTA - Last trading day, PTA futures declined. Supply increased, demand decreased, and the cost support from crude oil is weak. It may oscillate under pressure in the short term. Look for high - selling opportunities and control risks [39][40]. Ethylene Glycol - Last trading day, ethylene glycol futures declined. Supply increased, demand decreased, and inventory is accumulating but at a low level. The short - term supply - demand situation is weak, and it is advisable to participate in a range - bound manner and pay attention to inventory and import changes [41]. Short - Fiber - Last trading day, short - fiber futures declined. The fundamental driving force is insufficient, demand feedback is negative, and the supply load is high. It may oscillate with cost changes. Be cautious about the repair of processing margins and pay attention to cost and production - cut dynamics [42][43][44]. Bottle - Chip - Last trading day, bottle - chip futures declined. Raw material prices are oscillating, and production capacity is being adjusted through maintenance. Inventory is decreasing, and it is expected to oscillate with cost changes. Participate cautiously and monitor raw material prices [45]. Soda Ash - Last trading day, soda ash futures rose. Production is stable, inventory is increasing, and downstream demand is weak. The market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and the long - term supply - demand imbalance is difficult to resolve [46][47]. Glass - Last trading day, glass futures rose. The actual supply - demand situation has no obvious driver, but the price increased due to the pull of the energy sector and cost - support expectations. It is expected to rebound in the short term [48]. Caustic Soda - Last trading day, caustic soda futures rose slightly. Production is increasing, inventory is decreasing, and the alumina market is expected to oscillate upward. The overall support for caustic soda is limited [49][51][52]. Pulp - Last trading day, pulp futures rose. Supply is expanding, downstream demand is weak, and the market is in the off - season. The price is expected to oscillate and adjust, and the trading atmosphere is light [53][54][55]. Lithium Carbonate - Last trading day, lithium carbonate futures declined. Although there are expectations of supply - side reform, the supply - demand surplus remains. Inventory is high, and prices are difficult to reverse before large - scale capacity clearance. Do not chase high prices [56]. Copper - Last trading day, Shanghai copper oscillated downward. The US announced a 50% tariff on copper exports to China, causing price fluctuations. The short - term trend is uncertain, and it is advisable to go long in the short term in the main contract [57][58][59]. Tin - Last trading day, Shanghai tin oscillated. The tin - ore supply is tight, and the overall supply is short. Downstream demand is good, and inventory is decreasing. It is expected to oscillate upward [60]. Nickel - Last trading day, Shanghai nickel declined. The nickel - consumption expectation is positive due to the solid - state battery concept, but the actual demand is weak, and the supply is in surplus. It is expected to oscillate [61][62]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - Last trading day, soybean meal and soybean oil futures rose. US soybean production is affected by weather, and domestic supply is relatively loose. Consider long - buying opportunities for soybean meal after adjustment and call options for soybean oil after correction [63][64]. Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil prices rose. June inventory was higher than expected, and exports were lower than expected. Domestic palm oil inventory is decreasing. Consider expanding the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil [65][66][67]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed prices declined. Domestic imports decreased, and inventory is at a high level. Consider long - buying opportunities for the oil - meal ratio [68][69]. Cotton - Domestic cotton futures oscillated. The USDA's supply - demand report is negative, and the global supply - demand is expected to be loose. It is advisable to short - sell at high prices [70][71][73]. Sugar - Domestic sugar futures oscillated. International sugar production expectations are adjusted downward, and domestic inventory is low. It is recommended to wait and see [74][75]. Apple - Apple futures oscillated. The expected production reduction is disproven, and there is a slight increase in production. Look for short - selling opportunities at high prices [77][79][80]. Live Pigs - The live - pig price is expected to be stable with a narrow adjustment. Supply is increasing in the middle of the month, and demand is weak in the off - season. Consider short - selling at high prices [81][82]. Eggs - Egg prices rose slightly, but the cost is high, and the profit is low. Egg production is increasing, and it is advisable to hold short positions [83][84][86]. Corn and Corn Starch - Corn and corn - starch futures declined. The domestic corn supply - demand is approaching balance, and the inventory pressure is reducing. Corn - starch production and demand are weak, and it is advisable to wait and see [87][88][89]. Logs - Log futures rose slightly. Overseas export willingness is decreasing, and domestic inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to oscillate and adjust before the first delivery [90][91][92].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The bond market is expected to have no trend and should be treated with caution [7]. - The stock index is expected to perform well in the long - term, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [9]. - The precious metals market is expected to continue its long - term bull trend, and it is advisable to consider going long on gold futures [11]. - For steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coils, investors can wait for shorting opportunities after the rebound [12]. - For iron ore, investors can focus on buying opportunities at low levels [14]. - For coking coal and coke, investors can consider short - term long opportunities and wait for mid - term shorting entry points [15]. - For ferroalloys, if the spot losses continue to widen, investors can consider low - level out - of - the - money call options [18]. - The crude oil market is expected to rebound and then decline, and it is advisable to wait and see [21]. - The fuel oil market has stabilized after a sharp decline, and it is advisable to wait and see [23]. - For synthetic rubber, investors can wait for the market to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [26]. - For natural rubber, it is expected to be weak in the short - term, and investors can focus on mid - term long opportunities [28]. - The PVC market is expected to remain weak [31]. - The urea market is expected to be volatile in the short - term and bullish in the mid - term [32]. - The PX market is expected to be volatile in the short - term, and investors should participate with caution [33]. - The PTA market is expected to be under pressure in the short - term, and investors can consider shorting at high levels [35]. - The ethylene glycol market is expected to be weak in the short - term, and investors should participate in the range [36]. - The short - fiber market is expected to follow the cost and fluctuate, and investors should be cautious about the repair of the processing margin [38]. - The bottle - chip market is expected to follow the cost and fluctuate, and investors should participate with caution [39]. - The soda ash market is expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term, and investors with long positions should control risks [42]. - The glass market is expected to rebound in the short - term [43]. - The caustic soda market is expected to have limited upward momentum in the short - term [45]. - The pulp market is expected to fluctuate and adjust [46]. - The lithium carbonate market has not changed its supply - demand pattern, and investors should not chase high prices [49]. - The copper market has high short - term uncertainty, and it is advisable to wait and see [52]. - The tin market is expected to be strong and fluctuate [53]. - The nickel market is expected to fluctuate [54]. - For soybean meal, investors can consider long opportunities at low - level support intervals; for soybean oil, investors can consider call options at support intervals after the decline [56]. - For palm oil, investors can consider expanding the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil [58]. - For rapeseed oil and meal, investors can consider long opportunities for the oil - meal ratio [59]. - For cotton, it is advisable to short at high levels [62]. - The sugar market is expected to fluctuate in the range [66]. - For apples, investors can focus on shorting opportunities at high levels [68]. - For live pigs, it is advisable to try shorting at high levels [70]. - For eggs, it is advisable to hold short positions [72]. - For corn and starch, it is advisable to wait and see; corn starch follows the corn market [75]. - The log market is expected to fluctuate and adjust before the first delivery [78]. Summary by Related Catalogs Bonds - The previous trading day, bond futures closed down across the board. The central bank carried out 90 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 32.8 billion yuan. The Fed is divided on dealing with tariff risks, and Powell is taking a wait - and - see attitude [5]. - The Sino - US economic and trade relations are stable, the macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the bond yield is at a relatively low level. It is expected that there will be no trend and should be treated with caution [6][7]. Stock Index - The previous trading day, stock index futures were mixed. The government adjusted the basic pension for retirees. The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak. However, the valuation of domestic assets is low, and China's economy has sufficient resilience. It is still optimistic about the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets and advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [8][9]. Precious Metals - The previous trading day, gold and silver futures rose. The current global trade and financial environment is complex, and the "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends are beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. Central bank gold purchases support the price. If the US economy slows down, the Fed may cut interest rates, and it is advisable to consider going long on gold futures [10][11]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - The previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rebounded strongly. The important meeting triggered the expectation of supply contraction, but the real estate downturn and over - capacity still suppress prices. The market is in the off - season, and the rebound space is limited. Technically, the short - term trend may continue. Investors can wait for shorting opportunities after the rebound [12]. Iron Ore - The previous trading day, iron ore futures rose significantly. Policy expectations boosted the price, but the supply - demand pattern has weakened marginally. The valuation is relatively high. Technically, it was supported at the previous low. Investors can focus on buying opportunities at low levels [14]. Coking Coal and Coke - The previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures rose significantly. The important meeting triggered the expectation of supply contraction, but the actual production is increasing. The cost of coke is supported. Technically, the short - term trend is strong. Investors can consider short - term long opportunities and wait for mid - term shorting entry points [15]. Ferroalloys - The previous trading day, manganese silicon and ferrosilicon futures rose. The supply of manganese ore is increasing, and the inventory is low. The production of ferroalloys is rising, but the demand is weak. The inventory is high. In the off - season, the demand has peaked, and the price is under pressure. If the spot losses continue to widen, investors can consider low - level out - of - the - money call options [17][18]. Crude Oil - The previous trading day, INE crude oil rose strongly. The CFTC data showed that speculators reduced their net long positions. The number of US oil and gas rigs decreased. OPEC + will gradually increase production. It is expected that the rebound will encounter resistance and decline, and it is advisable to wait and see [19][21]. Fuel Oil - The previous trading day, fuel oil opened low and fluctuated. The premium of Asian ultra - low - sulfur fuel oil decreased, and the market was calm. The increase in Singapore's fuel oil inventory is negative, while the easing of tariff frictions is positive. It has stabilized after a sharp decline, and it is advisable to wait and see [22][23]. Synthetic Rubber - The previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures rose. The raw material price decreased, and the profit turned positive. The supply and demand are short - term loose. The production capacity utilization rate is stable, but the demand from tire enterprises is weak. The inventory is high. It is advisable to wait for the market to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [24][26]. Natural Rubber - The previous trading day, natural rubber futures rose. The domestic production area was affected by rainfall, and the supply pressure increased. The demand was difficult to improve, and the inventory was high. It is expected to be weak in the short - term, and investors can focus on mid - term long opportunities [27][28]. PVC - The previous trading day, PVC futures rose. The production is expected to continue to decline, the demand has no sign of improvement, and the cost support is weak. It is expected to maintain a weak operation [29][31]. Urea - The previous trading day, urea futures rose. The supply is expected to remain high, the demand is expected to pick up, and the inventory is expected to decline. It is expected to be volatile in the short - term and bullish in the mid - term [31][32]. PX - The previous trading day, PX futures rose. The supply load decreased slightly, and the import increased. The short - term supply and demand improved slightly, and the balance remained tight. The cost support from crude oil was insufficient. It is expected to be volatile in the short - term, and investors should participate with caution [33]. PTA - The previous trading day, PTA futures rose. The supply load increased, and the demand load decreased. The short - term supply and demand fundamentals are expected to weaken, and the cost support from crude oil is insufficient. It is expected to be under pressure in the short - term, and investors can consider shorting at high levels [34][35]. Ethylene Glycol - The previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures rose. The supply load increased, and the inventory increased. The demand from the polyester industry decreased. The short - term supply and demand turned weak, and the inventory is at a low level. It is advisable to participate in the range [36]. Short - Fiber - The previous trading day, short - fiber futures rose. The supply load decreased, and the demand was weak. The cost is volatile, and the short - term drive is insufficient. It is expected to follow the cost and fluctuate, and investors should be cautious about the repair of the processing margin [37][38]. Bottle - Chip - The previous trading day, bottle - chip futures rose. The raw material price is volatile, and the supply load decreased. The demand from the downstream beverage industry is increasing, and the export is high. It is expected to follow the cost and fluctuate, and investors should participate with caution [39]. Soda Ash - The previous trading day, soda ash futures rose. The production decreased slightly, and the inventory increased. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is weak. It is expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term, and investors with long positions should control risks [40][42]. Glass - The previous trading day, glass futures rose. The actual supply and demand have no obvious driver, and the market sentiment is weak. It was driven up by the energy sector, and it is expected to rebound in the short - term [43]. Caustic Soda - The previous trading day, caustic soda futures rose. The production decreased, and the inventory decreased. The demand from the alumina industry is affected by maintenance and production reduction. The overall supply and demand are loose, and the regional difference is obvious. It is expected to have limited upward momentum in the short - term [44][45]. Pulp - The previous trading day, pulp futures rose. The supply is expected to expand, and the downstream demand is weak. The industry is in the off - season, and the inventory is high. It is expected to fluctuate and adjust [46]. Lithium Carbonate - The previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures fell. The supply - demand pattern has not changed, the supply is strong, and the consumption has improved slightly, but the inventory is still high. Investors should not chase high prices [49]. Copper - The previous trading day, Shanghai copper futures fluctuated higher. The US will impose a 50% tariff on copper, which may impact China. The spot market is weak, and the overall demand is limited. The short - term trend is uncertain, and it is advisable to wait and see [50][52]. Tin - The previous trading day, Shanghai tin futures fluctuated. The supply of tin ore is tight, the processing fee is low, and the production is below the normal level. The consumption is good, and the inventory is decreasing. It is expected to be strong and fluctuate [53]. Nickel - The previous trading day, Shanghai nickel futures rose. The price of nickel ore weakened, the demand from stainless steel mills is weak, and the overall supply is in excess. It is expected to fluctuate [54]. Soybean Meal and Oil - The previous trading day, soybean meal and oil futures rose. The domestic soybean arrival is high, the oil mill profit is low, and the import cost is rising. The consumption of soybean meal and oil is expected to increase slightly. For soybean meal, investors can consider long opportunities at low - level support intervals; for soybean oil, investors can consider call options at support intervals after the decline [55][56]. Palm Oil - The previous trading day, Malaysian palm oil futures fell. The Malaysian palm oil inventory reached an 18 - month high in June. The domestic palm oil inventory is at a medium - high level. It is advisable to consider expanding the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil [57][58]. Rapeseed Oil and Meal - The previous trading day, rapeseed oil and meal futures had different performances. The supply of rapeseed is tight, and the demand is weak. The inventory of rapeseed and meal is at a low level, and the inventory of rapeseed oil is at a high level. It is advisable to consider long opportunities for the oil - meal ratio [58][59]. Cotton - The previous trading day, domestic cotton futures fluctuated. The US cotton growth condition is good, and the export sales decreased. The domestic cotton production is expected to increase. It is advisable to short at high levels [60][62]. Sugar - The previous trading day, domestic sugar futures fluctuated. The Brazilian sugar production may increase, and the Indian sugar production is expected to decline. The domestic sugar production increased, and the inventory decreased. It is expected to fluctuate in the range [63][66]. Apples - The previous trading day, apple futures fluctuated. The apple production is expected to increase slightly this year, and the inventory is decreasing. It is advisable to focus on shorting opportunities at high levels [67][68]. Live Pigs - The previous trading day, live pig futures rose. The supply is expected to increase, the demand is weak in the off - season, and the cost is low. It is advisable to try shorting at high levels [69][70]. Eggs - The previous trading day, egg futures fell. The egg production is expected to increase in July, the demand is weak in the off - season, and the cost is low. It is advisable to hold short positions [71][72]. Corn and Starch - The previous trading day, corn futures fell slightly, and corn starch futures rose slightly. The domestic corn supply and demand are approaching balance, the policy is favorable, and the consumption is warming up. The inventory pressure has decreased, but the import may increase. Corn starch follows the corn market. It is advisable to wait and see [73][75]. Logs - The previous trading day, log futures rose. The sea freight has an expected decline, the arrival of logs is increasing, and the demand from construction sites is weak. It is expected to fluctuate and adjust before the first delivery [76][78].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and it is expected that the monetary policy will remain loose. Different commodities have different market trends and investment suggestions due to various factors such as supply - demand relationships, policy impacts, and international situations [6][9][11] - For most commodities, investors are advised to pay attention to market trends, control risks, and choose appropriate investment strategies according to specific market conditions. 3. Summary by Commodity Treasury Bonds - Last trading day, most treasury bond futures closed higher. The central bank conducted 755 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 23 billion yuan on the day. China's June CPI turned positive year - on - year, and PPI continued to decline. It is expected that there will be no trend - based market, and caution should be maintained [5][6][7] Stock Index Futures - Last trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The State Council issued a notice to support stable employment. Although the domestic economic recovery momentum is not strong, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and it is considered to go long on stock index futures [8][9][10] Precious Metals - Last trading day, gold and silver futures prices declined. The complex global trade and financial environment, the trend of "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization", and central banks' gold - buying behavior support the long - term bull market of precious metals. It is considered to go long on gold futures [11][12] Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - Last trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fluctuated. An important meeting triggered expectations of supply contraction, but the real estate downturn and over - capacity still suppress prices. There is a risk of further price decline, and investors can pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds [13] Iron Ore - Last trading day, iron ore futures fluctuated. The supply - demand pattern has weakened marginally, but the price valuation is relatively high. Investors can pay attention to buying opportunities at low levels [15] Coking Coal and Coke - Last trading day, coking coal and coke futures rose significantly. An important meeting triggered supply - contraction expectations, but the actual supply may increase. The short - term trend is strong, and investors can pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds [17] Ferroalloys - Last trading day, manganese silicon and silicon iron futures rose. The supply of manganese ore has increased, and the demand for ferroalloys is weak. The short - term supply may be in excess, and the price is under pressure. If the spot loss intensifies, investors can consider low - value call options [19][20] Crude Oil - Last trading day, INE crude oil rose strongly. OPEC + will increase production in August and September, but the increase will end in September. The market has stabilized after a decline, and investors can pay attention to long - buying opportunities for the main contract [21][23][24] Fuel Oil - Last trading day, fuel oil opened higher and fluctuated. The increase in Singapore's fuel oil inventory is negative, while the easing of tariff frictions is positive. The price has stabilized after a sharp decline, and investors can pay attention to long - buying opportunities for the main contract [25][26] Synthetic Rubber - Last trading day, synthetic rubber rose. The raw material price has declined, and the profit has turned positive. The supply - demand is short - term loose. Wait for the market to stabilize and participate in the rebound [27][29] Natural Rubber - Last trading day, natural rubber rose. Domestic production areas are affected by rainfall, and overseas supply is increasing. The demand is weak, and the price may fluctuate weakly in the short term. Pay attention to medium - term long - buying opportunities [30][31] PVC - Last trading day, PVC rose. The expected production will continue to decline, the demand has not improved, and the cost support is weakening. The price is expected to remain weak, showing a bottom - oscillating pattern [32][35] Urea - Last trading day, urea rose. The demand is expected to improve this week, driving inventory reduction. The price may oscillate strongly in the short term and be bullish in the medium term [36][37] PX - Last trading day, PX rose slightly. The supply - demand has improved slightly in the short term, and the cost support from crude oil has improved. The price will oscillate and adjust in the short term, and investors should participate cautiously [38] PTA - Last trading day, PTA rose. The supply - demand contradiction is not significant in the short term, and the cost support from crude oil exists. The price may oscillate and adjust in the short term, and investors can participate with a light position [39] Ethylene Glycol - Last trading day, ethylene glycol declined. The short - term supply - demand has weakened, suppressing the price, but the inventory is at a low level, providing support. Investors should participate within a range and pay attention to port inventory and imports [40] Short - Fiber - Last trading day, short - fiber rose. The downstream demand and cost have weakened, but the low inventory of factories can limit the decline. Investors can participate with a light position following the cost and pay attention to taking profits when the processing fee is high [41][42] Bottle Chips - Last trading day, bottle chips rose. The raw material price is oscillating, the number of device overhauls has increased, and the inventory is being reduced. The price is expected to oscillate following the cost. Investors should participate cautiously and pay attention to expanding the processing fee when it is low [43] Soda Ash - Last trading day, soda ash rose. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is weak. The long - term supply - demand imbalance is difficult to alleviate. The price increase is mainly driven by the energy sector, and investors should be cautious as a bull [44][45] Glass - Last trading day, glass rose. The actual supply - demand has no obvious driving force, and the market sentiment is weak. The price is mainly stable, and most deep - processing enterprises maintain rigid demand [46][47] Caustic Soda - Last trading day, caustic soda rose. The supply - demand is generally loose with regional differences. The price in most mainstream areas has declined, and the basis has narrowed. Although the market is bullish in the short term, the fundamental support is limited [48][49] Pulp - Last trading day, pulp rose. The downstream demand is weak, and the supply pressure is increasing. The price is expected to oscillate and adjust. The market trading sentiment is average, and the paper mill's procurement is light [50][52] Lithium Carbonate - Last trading day, lithium carbonate rose. The supply - demand pattern has not changed, the supply is strong, and the inventory is high. Do not chase the high price before the large - scale clearance of mine capacity [53] Copper - Last trading day, Shanghai copper declined sharply due to the US tariff increase. The price decline has expanded, and the downstream is in a wait - and - see state. Temporarily wait and see for the main contract [54][55] Tin - Last trading day, Shanghai tin oscillated. The ore supply is tight, the overall supply is short, and the demand is good. The price is expected to oscillate strongly [56] Nickel - Last trading day, Shanghai nickel declined slightly. The mine price has weakened, the consumption is not optimistic, and the supply is in excess. The price is expected to oscillate [57] Soybean Meal and Soybean Oil - Last trading day, soybean meal and soybean oil rose. The US soybean harvest is expected to be good, and the domestic supply is loose. Consider long - buying opportunities for soybean meal at low levels and call options for soybean oil after a decline [58][59] Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil has risen for three consecutive days. The domestic inventory is at a medium - high level. Consider expanding the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil [60][61] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed declined. The domestic import has decreased, and the inventory is at a high or low level. Consider long - buying opportunities for the oil - meal ratio [62][63] Cotton - Last trading day, domestic cotton rose slightly. The US cotton growth is good, and the global supply - demand is expected to be loose. The domestic industry is in the off - season. Consider short - selling at high levels [64][65][66] Sugar - Last trading day, domestic sugar oscillated. The Brazilian production increase expectation has been adjusted downward, and the domestic inventory is low. The price will oscillate within a range [67][70][71] Apple - Last trading day, apple futures oscillated. The national apple production is expected to increase slightly. Consider short - selling opportunities at high levels [72][73] Live Pigs - Yesterday, the national average price of live pigs was flat. The supply pressure is increasing, and the consumption is weak. Consider short - selling at high levels [74][75] Eggs - Last trading day, the egg price was flat. The egg supply is expected to increase in July, and it is in the consumption off - season. Hold short positions [76][77] Corn and Corn Starch - Last trading day, corn declined slightly, and corn starch rose slightly. The domestic corn supply - demand is approaching balance, and the inventory pressure has decreased. Corn starch follows the corn market. It is advisable to wait and see [78][79][80] Logs - Last trading day, logs declined. The overseas export willingness has decreased, and the domestic inventory is being reduced. The price is expected to oscillate and adjust before the first delivery [81][83]

Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment ratings in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the bond market, it is expected that there will be no trend - based market, and caution should be exercised [6][7] - For the stock index, the long - term performance is optimistic, and considering going long on stock index futures is recommended [9][10] - For precious metals, the long - term bull market trend is expected to continue, and considering going long on gold futures is advised [11][12] - For steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coils, short - term rallies can be considered for shorting [13] - For iron ore, low - level buying opportunities can be considered [15] - For coking coal and coke, short - term rallies can be considered for shorting [17] - For ferroalloys, the overall price is under pressure, and long - position investors need to be cautious [19][20][21] - For crude oil, the main contract can be considered for long - position opportunities [22][23][24] - For fuel oil, the main contract can be considered for long - position opportunities [25][26] - For synthetic rubber, wait for the market to stabilize before participating in the rally [27][28] - For natural rubber, it may experience weak fluctuations in the short term, and mid - term long - position opportunities can be monitored [28][29] - For PVC, it is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend [30][32] - For urea, it may fluctuate in the short term and be treated with a bullish view in the medium term [33][34] - For PX, it may oscillate and adjust in the short term, and participation should be cautious [35] - For PTA, it may oscillate and adjust in the short term, and light - position participation is recommended [36][37] - For ethylene glycol, short - term supply - demand weakening suppresses the market, and interval participation is recommended [38] - For staple fiber, follow the cost side with light positions and monitor opportunities to widen processing margins [39][40] - For bottle chips, it is expected to oscillate following the cost side, and cautious participation is recommended [41] - For soda ash, the long - term oversupply situation is difficult to alleviate, and the price may be under pressure [42] - For glass, the actual supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious drivers, and the market sentiment is weak [44][45] - For caustic soda, the overall supply - demand is relatively loose, and the price may have limited upward momentum [46][47] - For pulp, the pulp price is expected to oscillate and adjust, and the price of household paper may remain weakly stalemated [48][49][50] - For lithium carbonate, the supply - demand surplus situation remains unchanged, and investors should not chase high prices [51] - For copper, the price may be supported by China's stimulus policies in the second half of the year [52] - For tin, the price is expected to oscillate strongly [53] - For nickel, the price is expected to oscillate [54] - For soybean oil and soybean meal, consider long - position opportunities for soybean meal at low - level support intervals and call option opportunities for soybean oil at support intervals after pullbacks [55][56][57] - For palm oil, consider opportunities to widen the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil [58][60] - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, consider long - position opportunities for the oil - meal ratio [61][62] - For cotton, it is recommended to short at high prices [63][64][65] - For sugar, it is expected to oscillate within a range [66][68][69] - For apples, consider short - position opportunities at high prices [70][71] - For live pigs, consider temporary observation [71][72] - For eggs, consider holding short positions [73][74][75] - For corn and corn starch, it is advisable to observe [76][77][78] - For logs, it is expected to oscillate and adjust before the first delivery [79][80][81] Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Bond Market - On the previous trading day, bond futures closed down across the board. The central bank conducted 69 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 62 billion yuan on the day. Trump extended the tariff suspension period to August 1st. The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and it is recommended to be cautious [5][6] Stock Index - On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. In June 2025, the retail sales of passenger cars increased year - on - year and month - on - month. The domestic economic recovery momentum is weak, but the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is optimistic, and going long on stock index futures can be considered [8][9] Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, gold and silver futures rose. The R & D of platinum and palladium futures is in the final stage. The complex global trade and financial environment, central bank gold purchases, and potential Fed rate cuts are favorable for precious metals, and going long on gold futures can be considered [11] Steel Products (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coils) - On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures oscillated. The important meeting triggered expectations of supply contraction, but the downward trend of the real estate industry and over - capacity still suppress prices. It is recommended to short on rallies [13] Iron Ore - On the previous trading day, iron ore futures oscillated. The iron water output decreased, and the supply increased. The supply - demand pattern weakened marginally. It is recommended to buy at low levels [15] Coking Coal and Coke - On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures fluctuated slightly. The meeting triggered supply contraction expectations, but the over - capacity still exists. It is recommended to short on rallies [17] Ferroalloys - On the previous trading day, manganese silicon rose slightly, and ferrosilicon fell slightly. The supply of manganese ore increased, and the demand for ferroalloys was weak. The overall price is under pressure, and long - position investors need to be cautious [19] Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, INE crude oil oscillated upward. OPEC + will increase production in August and September, and the market has stabilized after a decline. It is recommended to go long on the main contract [22][23][24] Fuel Oil - On the previous trading day, fuel oil oscillated upward. The Asian fuel oil market is under pressure due to oversupply and weak demand. The increase in Singapore's fuel oil inventory is negative, but the easing of tariff friction is positive. It is recommended to go long on the main contract [25][26] Synthetic Rubber - On the previous trading day, synthetic rubber rose. The raw material cost decreased, and the profit turned positive. The supply is relatively loose in the short term. Wait for the market to stabilize before participating in the rally [27][28] Natural Rubber - On the previous trading day, natural rubber rose. Domestic rainfall affected tapping, and overseas shipments increased supply pressure. The demand is weak, and the price may fluctuate weakly [28][29] PVC - On the previous trading day, PVC rose slightly. The production is expected to decline, the demand has no improvement, and the cost support is weak. The price is expected to remain weak [30][32] Urea - On the previous trading day, urea rose. The demand is expected to improve this week, and the inventory will be reduced. The price may oscillate strongly in the short term and be bullish in the medium term [33][34] PX - On the previous trading day, PX rose slightly. The supply decreased slightly, and the demand was stable. The cost support is weak. The price may oscillate and adjust in the short term [35] PTA - On the previous trading day, PTA rose slightly. The supply decreased, and the demand decreased slightly. The cost support is weak. The price may oscillate and adjust in the short term [36][37] Ethylene Glycol - On the previous trading day, ethylene glycol fell. The supply decreased slightly, and the demand decreased. The inventory increased slightly. The price may be under pressure in the short term [38] Staple Fiber - On the previous trading day, staple fiber fell slightly. The supply was stable, and the demand was weak. The cost support was weak. Follow the cost side with light positions [39][40] Bottle Chips - On the previous trading day, bottle chips fell slightly. The raw material price decreased, but the device maintenance increased, and the inventory decreased. It is expected to oscillate following the cost side [41] Soda Ash - On the previous trading day, soda ash rose. The production decreased slightly, and the inventory increased. The long - term oversupply situation is difficult to alleviate, and the price may be under pressure [42] Glass - On the previous trading day, glass remained unchanged. The production line was stable, and the supply - demand fundamentals had no obvious drivers. The market sentiment was weak [44][45] Caustic Soda - On the previous trading day, caustic soda rose. The production decreased slightly, and the demand was stable. The overall supply - demand is relatively loose, and the price may have limited upward momentum [46][47] Pulp - On the previous trading day, pulp rose slightly. The downstream demand was weak, and the supply pressure increased. The pulp price is expected to oscillate and adjust, and the household paper price may remain weakly stalemated [48][49][50] Lithium Carbonate - On the previous trading day, lithium carbonate rose. The central government's policy triggered supply - side reform expectations, but the supply - demand surplus situation remains unchanged. Investors should not chase high prices [51] Copper - On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper oscillated upward. The spot price decreased slightly. The price may be supported by China's stimulus policies in the second half of the year [52] Tin - On the previous trading day, Shanghai tin oscillated. The mine supply was tight. The price is expected to oscillate strongly [53] Nickel - On the previous trading day, Shanghai nickel fell. The downstream demand was weak. The price is expected to oscillate [54] Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - On the previous trading day, soybean meal fell, and soybean oil rose. The good weather in the US soybean - producing areas strengthened the harvest expectation. The domestic supply is relatively loose, and the cost support increased. Consider long - position opportunities for soybean meal at low - level support intervals and call option opportunities for soybean oil at support intervals after pullbacks [55][56][57] Palm Oil - On the previous trading day, palm oil is expected to rise. The threat of US tariffs may reduce Indonesia's exports. The Malaysian inventory is expected to decrease. Consider opportunities to widen the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil [58][60] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - On the previous trading day, rapeseed and rapeseed oil rebounded. The domestic import of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal decreased. Consider long - position opportunities for the oil - meal ratio [61][62] Cotton - On the previous trading day, domestic cotton fluctuated. The US cotton growing conditions are good, and the global supply - demand is expected to be loose. It is recommended to short at high prices [63][64][65] Sugar - On the previous trading day, domestic sugar oscillated. The Brazilian sugar production is expected to increase, and the domestic inventory is low. The price is expected to oscillate within a range [66][68][69] Apples - On the previous trading day, apple futures fell slightly. The production is expected to increase slightly this year. It is recommended to short at high prices [70][71] Live Pigs - Yesterday, the national average price of live pigs rose slightly. The northern pig prices rebounded, and the southern pig prices were mostly stable. The consumption is weak in summer. It is recommended to observe temporarily [71][72] Eggs - On the previous trading day, the egg price decreased. The egg production increased, and the cost decreased. It is recommended to hold short positions [73][74][75] Corn and Corn Starch - On the previous trading day, corn and corn starch futures fell. The good weather in the US strengthened the harvest expectation. The domestic supply - demand is approaching balance, and it is advisable to observe [76][77][78] Logs - On the previous trading day, log futures fell slightly. The overseas export willingness decreased, and the domestic inventory decreased. It is expected to oscillate and adjust before the first delivery [79][80][81]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report indicates that the upward pressure on cotton prices remains significant, and the driving force is weak. Considering the global and domestic cotton market conditions, it is expected that the cotton price will face substantial upward pressure, and it is advisable to gradually short the far - month contracts on rallies [35]. Summary According to the Directory International Cotton Market Analysis - **Global 2025/26 Cotton Supply and Demand**: In the USDA's June report, for the 2025/26 season, global cotton production, consumption, beginning/ending stocks, and trade volume are all adjusted downward. Production is cut by over 800,000 bales, with an increase in China's output and decreases in India, the US, and Pakistan. Consumption is reduced by over 300,000 bales. Ending stocks decline by nearly 1.6 million bales, and the stock - to - use ratio drops 0.2 percentage points month - on - month and 1.1 percentage points year - on - year. The global supply - demand is in a weak balance, and the production - consumption gap widens by 110,000 tons to - 170,000 tons [2]. - **US Cotton Supply and Weather**: The USDA's June report shows that for the 2025/26 season, US cotton production, beginning stocks, and ending stocks are adjusted downward month - on - month, while consumption, imports, and exports remain unchanged. Due to excessive rainfall and delayed sowing, the harvested area is cut by 2 percentage points to 8.19 million acres, and the average yield per acre drops by over 1 percentage point to 820 pounds/acre. The US cotton production is expected to be 14 million bales, 500,000 bales less than last month, the second - lowest in the past decade. Ending stocks are reduced by 900,000 bales to 4.3 million bales. As of July 6, 2025, the US cotton (American cotton) good - to - excellent rate is 52%, slightly up from the previous week (51%) but lower than the same period last year (45%). The squaring rate is 48%, and the boll - setting rate is 14% [5][7]. Domestic Cotton Fundamentals - **Expected Domestic Cotton Production in 2025/26**: In 2024, the domestic weather was suitable during the new cotton planting and growing period, with a record - high yield per unit of 2,171.6 kg/ha, a year - on - year increase of about 7.8%, and the total national output was around 6.7 million tons. In June 2025, the National Cotton Market Monitoring System's survey shows that the actual sown area in 2025 is 45.803 million mu, a year - on - year increase of 2.707 million mu or 6.3%. The expected total output will increase by 2.8% to 6.864 million tons, and the report estimates the output may be around 7 million tons [10]. - **Current Domestic Cotton Commercial and Industrial Inventories**: As of June 15, the national cotton commercial inventory is 3.1269 million tons, in a stable destocking state; the national cotton industrial inventory is 0.9301 million tons. The commercial inventory is at a relatively low level, and the industrial inventory is at the highest level in the same period of history, showing a state of low upstream inventory and high downstream inventory [14]. - **Continuous Accumulation of Yarn and Grey Cloth Inventories**: As of the end of May 2025, the yarn inventory of domestic textile enterprises is 22.34 days, an increase of 1.3 days from last month and a decrease of 5.2 days year - on - year. The grey cloth inventory is 32.9 days, an increase of 1.7 days from last month and 2 days year - on - year. Yarn and grey cloth are continuously accumulating inventory [16][19]. - **Weak Textile and Apparel Export Performance**: The US is one of the main export destinations for China's textile and apparel. From January to May 2025, the cumulative textile and apparel exports are $116.67 billion, a 1% increase. Among them, textile exports are $58.48 billion, a 2.5% increase, and apparel exports are $58.2 billion, a 0.5% decrease. In May, textile and apparel exports are $26.21 billion, a 0.6% increase and an 8.4% month - on - month increase. Textile exports are $12.63 billion, a 1.9% decrease and a 0.4% month - on - month increase, and apparel exports are $13.58 billion, a 3% increase and a 17% month - on - month increase [23][25]. - **Low Growth Rate of Domestic Textile and Apparel Consumption**: From January to May 2025, China's total retail sales of consumer goods are 20.3171 trillion yuan, a 5% year - on - year increase. In May, the total retail sales of consumer goods are 4.1326 trillion yuan, a 6.4% year - on - year increase, and the growth rate rebounds by 1.3 percentage points month - on - month. From January to May 2025, the total retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, and knitted textiles are 613.8 billion yuan, a 3.3% year - on - year increase. In May, the total retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, and knitted textiles are 122.5 billion yuan, a 4% year - on - year increase, and the growth rate expands by 1.8 percentage points month - on - month [29]. - **Poor Downstream Immediate Textile Profits**: As of the end of June, the domestic immediate yarn - cotton price difference is around 5,400 yuan/ton, continuously declining this year and at a relatively low historical level. In 2024, the overall yarn - cotton price difference was in the range of 6,000 - 6,600 yuan/ton. Downstream textile enterprises have suffered large losses for a long time, which has a significant negative feedback on the upstream raw material prices, and the low downstream profits make it difficult to actively replenish inventory [31]. Trading Logic - **Global Perspective**: According to the USDA balance sheet, in the 2025/26 season, the global cotton supply - demand is in a weak balance. The current US weather is favorable for cotton growth, and the US good - to - excellent rate remains at a high level. There is also a lot of uncertainty in global tariffs, and both supply and demand have large adjustment spaces [32][35]. - **Domestic Perspective**: Currently, the domestic commercial inventory is at a low level, but the industrial inventory is at a high level, and the downstream yarn and grey cloth inventories are continuously accumulating. The losses of downstream textile enterprises have generally increased, and even Xinjiang yarn mills are on the verge of break - even. The willingness of the industrial chain to replenish inventory is low [35]. - **Demand Aspect**: The export demand for textiles is weak, and domestic consumption is also sluggish. Under the situation of tariff frictions, there is a lot of uncertainty in future exports. It is difficult to see variables that can significantly improve consumption in the short term [35]. - **Price Outlook**: The high inventory of domestic cotton spinning mid - and downstream finished products, combined with widespread losses, restrains the willingness of future yarn mills and grey cloth mills to replenish raw material inventory. The planting area of Xinjiang cotton has increased in the new season, and the expectation of a bumper harvest is strong. It is expected that the upward pressure on cotton prices will still be significant, and it is advisable to gradually short the far - month contracts on rallies [35].

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Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and it is expected that the monetary policy will remain loose. There is uncertainty in the Sino - US trade agreement, so it is recommended to stay cautious [6]. - The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [9]. - The long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and it is recommended to consider going long on gold futures [12]. - For various commodities, different investment strategies are recommended based on their respective supply - demand situations, cost factors, and market trends, such as going long, shorting, or staying on the sidelines. Summary by Related Catalogs Bonds - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, most treasury bond futures closed higher. The 30 - year, 10 - year, and 5 - year main contracts rose by 0.11%, 0.03%, and 0.02% respectively, while the 2 - year main contract remained flat. The central bank conducted 34 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of funds from the open market [5]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: It is expected that there will be no trend - based market, and caution should be maintained [7]. Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures changed by 0.46%, 0.62%, - 0.01%, and - 0.43% respectively [8]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is optimistic, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [10]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contracts of gold and silver futures declined. The gold main contract closed at 777.06 with a decline of 0.54%, and the silver main contract closed at 8,919 with a decline of 0.28% [11]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: The long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and it is recommended to consider going long on gold futures [12]. Steel Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rebounded but faced resistance. The spot prices of Tangshan billet, Shanghai rebar, and Shanghai hot - rolled coil were reported [14]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: There is a risk of further decline in rebar prices, and the trend of hot - rolled coil may be similar. Investors can focus on short - selling opportunities during rebounds, take profits in a timely manner, and manage positions carefully [14]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures rebounded slightly. The spot prices of PB powder and Super Special powder at ports were reported [16]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: The supply - demand pattern of the iron ore market has weakened marginally. Investors can focus on buying opportunities at low levels, take profits when the price rebounds, and stop losses if the price falls below the previous low, while managing positions carefully [17]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures declined slightly [19]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: There is uncertainty in the short - term trend. Investors can focus on short - selling opportunities during rebounds, take profits in a timely manner, and manage positions carefully [19]. Ferroalloys - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contracts of manganese silicon and silicon iron futures declined. The spot prices of manganese silicon in Tianjin and silicon iron in Inner Mongolia changed [21]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: In the short term, ferroalloys may continue to have an oversupply situation, and prices are under pressure. If the spot losses increase significantly, it is advisable to consider low - value call options [22]. Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil oscillated downward and broke below the 5 - day moving average [23]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: OPEC+ unexpectedly increased production significantly, which is expected to impact oil prices. It is advisable to focus on short - selling opportunities for the main crude oil contract [24][25]. Fuel Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, fuel oil oscillated downward and resumed its downward trend. The spot spreads and trading conditions of high - sulfur and ultra - low - sulfur fuel oil were reported [26]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: Fuel oil supply is sufficient, and the cost of crude oil is declining. It is advisable to focus on short - selling opportunities for the main fuel oil contract [26]. Synthetic Rubber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of synthetic rubber rose slightly. The mainstream price in Shandong remained stable [27]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: Wait for the market to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [28]. Natural Rubber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contracts of natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber declined. The Shanghai spot price decreased [29]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: Pay attention to the opportunity to go long after the market stabilizes [30]. PVC - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main PVC contract declined slightly, and the spot price remained stable [31]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: The PVC price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [34]. Urea - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main urea contract rose slightly. The price in Shandong Linyi remained stable [35]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: The short - term trend is oscillatory, and the medium - term trend is bullish [36]. PX - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main PX2509 contract declined. The PXN and PX - MX spreads were reported [37]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: In the short term, the supply - demand balance of PX is slightly improved but remains tight. Due to insufficient cost support, it is advisable to participate cautiously and pay attention to changes in crude oil prices and the Middle East situation [38]. PTA - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main PTA2509 contract declined. The spot price and basis rate in East China were reported [39]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: In the short term, the supply - demand fundamentals of PTA have few contradictions, but the cost support of crude oil is insufficient. It is advisable to participate with a light position and control risks [39]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main ethylene glycol contract declined slightly. The overall and partial开工 loads, inventory, and demand situations were reported [40]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: In the short term, the supply - demand situation of ethylene glycol has weakened, but the significant reduction in inventory provides support. It is advisable to be cautious about the downside space and pay attention to port inventory and import changes [41]. Short - Fiber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main short - fiber 2508 contract declined. The supply, demand, and cost - benefit situations were reported [42]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: Both the downstream terminal demand and cost factors have weakened. It is advisable to participate with a light position following the cost trend and pay attention to opportunities to expand the processing margin at low levels [42]. Bottle Chips - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main bottle chips 2509 contract declined. The cost - benefit, supply, and demand situations were reported [43]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: Although the raw material prices have weakened recently, the increase in device maintenance and inventory reduction provide support. It is advisable to participate cautiously and pay attention to opportunities to expand the processing margin at low levels [43]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of soda ash declined. The production, inventory, and device maintenance situations were reported [44]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: In the medium - to - long term, the oversupply situation of soda ash is difficult to alleviate. There may be a short - term rebound, but it is not advisable to chase the rise excessively [44]. Glass - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of glass declined. The production line, supply - demand, and market price situations were reported [45]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: The actual supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the market sentiment is weak. There may be a short - term rebound, but it is not advisable to chase the rise excessively. Short - sellers at low levels should control their positions [47]. Caustic Soda - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of caustic soda declined slightly. The production, inventory, and demand situations were reported [48]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: The overall supply - demand is still relatively loose, and the regional differences are obvious. Although there is short - term bullish sentiment, the fundamental support is limited, and the sustainability is expected to be general [49]. Pulp - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of pulp declined. The downstream product production, supply - demand, and price situations were reported [50]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: The supply - demand contradiction remains unresolved. It is expected that the price of the pulp market will remain weak and stagnant in the near future, and it is advisable to wait and see the changes in raw material pulp prices and downstream demand [51]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main lithium carbonate contract declined. The market sentiment improved, but the supply - demand pattern remained unchanged [52]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: The supply - demand surplus situation has not changed significantly. It is not advisable for investors to chase the rise [52]. Copper - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper declined significantly and broke below the 5 - day moving average. The spot price and market trading situation were reported [53]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: Shanghai copper is facing the test of the 80,000 - yuan integer mark. It is advisable to stay on the sidelines for the main Shanghai copper contract for the time being [53][54]. Tin - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai tin oscillated. The supply, demand, and inventory situations were reported [55]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: It is expected that the tin price will oscillate and strengthen [55]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai nickel declined. The supply, demand, and inventory situations were reported [56]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: It is expected that the nickel price will oscillate [57]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contracts of soybean meal and soybean oil declined. The spot prices and inventory situations were reported [58]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: Consider paying attention to long - position opportunities for soybean meal at low - level support intervals; for soybean oil, consider paying attention to call option opportunities at support intervals after the price decline [59]. Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: Malaysian palm oil closed lower. The international and domestic supply - demand, inventory, and price situations were reported [60][61]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: Consider paying attention to opportunities to widen the difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil [62]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - **Market Performance**: Canadian rapeseed remained flat. The domestic import, inventory, and spot price situations were reported [63]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: Consider paying attention to opportunities to go long on the ratio of rapeseed oil to rapeseed meal [64]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: Domestic Zhengzhou cotton oscillated strongly at a high level. The US cotton export, planting, and growth situations were reported [65]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: Stay on the sidelines [69]. Sugar - **Market Performance**: Domestic Zhengzhou sugar rose and then fell. The international and domestic production, inventory, and supply - demand situations were reported [70]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: Stay on the sidelines [72]. Apples - **Market Performance**: Domestic apple futures rose and then fell. The production, inventory, and price situations were reported [73]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: Stay on the sidelines and pay attention to third - party production research data [75]. Pigs - **Market Performance**: The national average price of pigs declined. The supply, demand, and inventory situations were reported [76]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: The short - term pig price may continue to be weak. It is advisable to stay on the sidelines and pay attention to the weight - reduction degree in the south [77]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: The average prices of eggs in the main production and sales areas remained unchanged. The supply, cost, and profit situations were reported [78]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: Consider short - selling on rebounds [80]. Corn and Corn Starch - **Market Performance**: The main contracts of corn and corn starch declined. The spot prices, inventory, and demand situations were reported [81]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: The domestic corn supply - demand is approaching balance. It is advisable to stay on the sidelines. Corn starch follows the corn market trend [82]. Logs - **Market Performance**: The main 2509 contract of logs remained unchanged. The supply, cost, demand, and price situations were reported [83]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: It is expected that the market will oscillate and adjust before the first delivery [85].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - For bonds, it's expected that there will be no trend - like market, and caution is advised [6][7]. - For stock indices, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is promising, and going long on stock index futures is recommended [9][10]. - For precious metals, the long - term bullish trend is expected to continue, and going long on gold futures is considered [11][12]. - For steel products (including rebar, hot - rolled coils), investors can focus on shorting opportunities during rebounds, and light - position participation is suggested [14][15]. - For iron ore, investors can look for buying opportunities at low levels, and light - position participation is recommended [16][17]. - For coking coal and coke, investors can focus on shorting opportunities during rebounds, and light - position participation is advised [19][20]. - For ferroalloys, the overall price is under pressure in the short term, and bulls should be cautious. Low - value call options can be considered if spot losses increase significantly [21]. - For crude oil, it is expected to oscillate at a low level, and the main contract should be put on hold for now [23][24]. - For fuel oil, the price is expected to gradually bottom out in the short term. The main contract should be put on hold for now, and long - position opportunities can be sought after the decline eases [26][27]. - For synthetic rubber, wait for the price to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [28][29]. - For natural rubber, pay attention to long - position opportunities after the price stabilizes [30][32]. - For PVC, the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [33][35]. - For urea, it will oscillate in the short term and is expected to be bullish in the medium term [36][38]. - For PX, it will oscillate and adjust in the short term, and participation should be cautious [39]. - For PTA, it will oscillate and adjust in the short term, and light - position participation is recommended [40][42]. - For ethylene glycol, the supply - demand situation weakens in the short term, but there is support at a low level. The space below should be treated with caution [43]. - For short - fiber, follow the cost side with light - position participation and look for opportunities to widen the processing margin [44]. - For bottle - grade chips, it is expected to oscillate following the cost side. Participation should be cautious, and opportunities to widen the processing margin should be noted [46]. - For soda ash, there may be a short - term rebound, but excessive long - position chasing is not advisable [47]. - For glass, there is a short - term bullish sentiment, but its sustainability is expected to be limited. Short - position holders at a low level should control their positions, and excessive long - position chasing is not recommended [49]. - For caustic soda, the supply - demand is generally loose, and the bullish sentiment due to the meeting's spirit is expected to have limited sustainability [50][51]. - For pulp, the paper price is expected to be weak and stalemate in the near future, and changes in raw material pulp prices and downstream demand should be observed [52]. - For lithium carbonate, the supply - demand surplus situation remains unchanged, and investors should not chase high prices [54]. - For copper, the price is expected to be strong, and the main contract should be put on hold for now [55][56]. - For tin, the price is expected to oscillate and be strong [57]. - For nickel, the price is expected to oscillate [58]. - For soybean oil and soybean meal, for soybean meal, look for long - position opportunities in the low - support range after adjustment; for soybean oil, consider call options in the support range after the fall [59][60]. - For palm oil, consider the opportunity to widen the rapeseed - palm oil spread [61][62]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, consider the opportunity to go long on the oil - meal ratio [63][64]. - For cotton, the global supply - demand is expected to remain loose, and it is advisable to wait and see [65][67]. - For sugar, the situation is neutral after short - term basis repair, and it is advisable to wait and see [68][70]. - For apples, pay attention to third - party research data on production as the expected reduction is less than previously thought [71][72]. - For live pigs, the demand support is weak in the summer off - season. Pay attention to the weight - reducing degree in the south and consider waiting and seeing [74][75]. - For eggs, consider short - position and rebound attempts as the supply is expected to increase year - on - year in June [76][78]. - For corn and starch, the domestic corn supply - demand is approaching balance. It's advisable to wait and see, and corn starch will follow the corn market [79][81]. - For logs, it is expected to oscillate and adjust before the first delivery [83][84]. Summaries by Directory Bonds - The previous trading day saw most bond futures closing higher, with a net withdrawal of 452.1 billion yuan in the open market [5]. - Macroeconomic data is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak. The bond yield is relatively low, and there is room for domestic demand policies. Caution is advised due to uncertainties in Sino - US trade agreements [6]. - It's expected that there will be no trend - like market [7]. Stock Indices - The previous trading day saw mixed results for stock index futures. Although the domestic economic recovery momentum is weak and market confidence in corporate profits is lacking, Chinese equity assets are still favored in the long - run, and going long on stock index futures is recommended [8][9][10]. Precious Metals - The previous trading day saw gold and silver futures rising. Due to the complex global trade and financial environment and the trends of "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization", the long - term bullish trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and going long on gold futures is considered [11][12]. Steel Products (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coils) - The previous trading day saw rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rebounding. An important meeting triggered expectations of supply contraction, but the real - estate downturn and over - capacity still suppress prices. From a valuation perspective, the downside space is limited. Technically, there may be a short - term rebound. Investors can focus on shorting opportunities during rebounds [13][14][15]. Iron Ore - The previous trading day saw iron ore futures rebounding. The iron ore supply - demand situation has weakened marginally, and its price valuation is relatively high. Technically, it was supported at the previous low. Investors can look for buying opportunities at low levels [16][17]. Coking Coal and Coke - The previous trading day saw coking coal and coke futures rising significantly. An important meeting triggered expectations of supply contraction. However, in reality, the coal mine operating rate is rising, and steel mills' demand for coke is weak. Technically, the short - term trend is uncertain. Investors can focus on shorting opportunities during rebounds [18][19][20]. Ferroalloys - The previous trading day saw manganese - silicon and silicon - iron futures rising. The supply of ferroalloys is expected to be in surplus in the short term, and the price is under pressure. If spot losses increase significantly, low - value call options can be considered [21]. Crude Oil - The previous trading day saw INE crude oil rising. Fund managers reduced their net long positions, and US energy companies continued to cut the number of oil and gas rigs. OPEC+ may continue to increase production. It is expected to oscillate at a low level, and the main contract should be put on hold for now [22][23][24]. Fuel Oil - The previous trading day saw fuel oil rising and the decline easing. The delivery time is still unstable. The supply of fuel oil is sufficient, and inventories in some regions have increased. In the short term, the price is expected to gradually bottom out. The main contract should be put on hold for now, and long - position opportunities can be sought after the decline eases [25][26][27]. Synthetic Rubber - The previous trading day saw synthetic rubber futures falling. The supply pressure has alleviated slightly, and the demand improvement is limited. The cost is expected to rebound, driving the price to stabilize and rebound. Wait for the price to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [28][29]. Natural Rubber - The previous trading day saw natural rubber futures falling. Overseas imports may decrease seasonally, and raw material output in the producing areas is expected to increase. The price is expected to fluctuate widely. Pay attention to long - position opportunities after the price stabilizes [30][32]. PVC - The previous trading day saw PVC futures rising. The production is expected to continue to decline, the demand shows no sign of improvement, and the cost support is strengthening. The price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [33][35]. Urea - The previous trading day saw urea futures showing no change. The agricultural demand is coming to an end, and the industrial demand is mediocre. Pay attention to the export situation. It will oscillate in the short term and is expected to be bullish in the medium term [36][38]. PX - The previous trading day saw PX futures falling. The supply - demand situation has improved slightly month - on - month, and the balance remains tight, but the cost support is insufficient. It will oscillate and adjust in the short term, and participation should be cautious [39]. PTA - The previous trading day saw PTA futures falling. The supply - demand fundamentals have little contradiction, but the cost support from crude oil is insufficient. It will oscillate and adjust in the short term, and light - position participation is recommended [40][42]. Ethylene Glycol - The previous trading day saw ethylene glycol futures falling. The supply - demand situation weakens in the short term, but the inventory has decreased significantly to a low level, providing support. The space below should be treated with caution [43]. Short - Fiber - The previous trading day saw short - fiber futures falling. The downstream demand and cost side have both weakened. The low inventory of factories can suppress some of the decline. Follow the cost side with light - position participation and look for opportunities to widen the processing margin [44]. Bottle - Grade Chips - The previous trading day saw bottle - grade chips futures falling. The raw material price is weak, but the number of device overhauls has increased, and the inventory has decreased, providing support. It is expected to oscillate following the cost side. Participation should be cautious, and opportunities to widen the processing margin should be noted [46]. Soda Ash - The previous trading day saw soda ash futures falling slightly. The supply is expected to exceed demand in the medium - to - long - term, and the inventory is sufficient. The short - term rebound is mainly due to a meeting, but its sustainability is limited. Excessive long - position chasing is not advisable [47]. Glass - The previous trading day saw glass futures rising. The actual supply - demand has no obvious drive. The short - term bullish sentiment is due to a meeting, but its sustainability is limited. Short - position holders at a low level should control their positions, and excessive long - position chasing is not recommended [48][49]. Caustic Soda - The previous trading day saw caustic soda futures rising slightly. The supply - demand is generally loose, and the region - based difference is obvious. The bullish sentiment due to the meeting's spirit is expected to have limited sustainability [50][51]. Pulp - The previous trading day saw pulp futures rising. The downstream demand is weak, and the supply pressure is increasing. The pulp price is expected to fluctuate and adjust. The paper price is expected to be weak and stalemate in the near future, and changes in raw material pulp prices and downstream demand should be observed [52]. Lithium Carbonate - The previous trading day saw lithium carbonate futures rising. A meeting triggered expectations of supply - side reform, but the supply - demand surplus situation remains unchanged. The price is difficult to reverse before the large - scale clearance of mining capacity. Investors should not chase high prices [54]. Copper - The previous trading day saw Shanghai copper rising and then falling. The price is expected to be strong in the second half of the year due to expected stimulus policies in China, the shortage of copper concentrates, and uncertain copper tariffs. The main contract should be put on hold for now [55][56]. Tin - The previous trading day saw Shanghai tin oscillating. The tin ore supply is tight, and the consumption is good. The inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to oscillate and be strong [57]. Nickel - The previous trading day saw Shanghai nickel rising. The cost support has weakened, the downstream consumption is not optimistic, and the refined nickel is in surplus. The price is expected to oscillate [58]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - The previous trading day saw soybean oil and soybean meal futures rising. The soybean crushing volume has recovered to a high level, and inventories are increasing. The demand for edible oil and feed is expected to increase slightly. For soybean meal, look for long - position opportunities in the low - support range after adjustment; for soybean oil, consider call options in the support range after the fall [59][60]. Palm Oil - The previous trading day saw Malaysian palm oil rising. The inventory in June is expected to decrease, and the export volume has increased. The domestic inventory is at a relatively high level. Consider the opportunity to widen the rapeseed - palm oil spread [61][62]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The previous trading day saw rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil futures adjusting. The import of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal has decreased. The crop growth is good, but the soil moisture is in short supply. Consider the opportunity to go long on the oil - meal ratio [63][64]. Cotton - The previous trading day saw domestic cotton futures oscillating at a high level, and overseas cotton futures falling. The global cotton supply - demand is expected to remain loose. The domestic cotton planting area has increased, and the seedlings are growing well. The industrial off - season is in progress, and there is no obvious new driving factor. It is advisable to wait and see [65][67]. Sugar - The previous trading day saw domestic sugar futures oscillating and overseas sugar futures rising significantly. The Brazilian sugar production is expected to increase, but the supply may decrease due to the increase in ethanol production. The domestic inventory is low, and the import will gradually increase. The supply - demand contradiction is not sharp. It is advisable to wait and see [68][70]. Apples - The previous trading day saw apple futures oscillating. The apple production reduction is less than expected, and some areas may have a restorative increase. Pay attention to third - party research data on production [71][72]. Live Pigs - The previous trading day saw live pig futures rising. The group - farm slaughter volume has decreased at the end and beginning of the month. The demand support is weak in the summer off - season. Pay attention to the weight - reducing degree in the south and consider waiting and seeing [74][75]. Eggs - The previous trading day saw egg futures rising. The egg supply in June is expected to increase year - on - year. It is the consumption off - season, and the temperature is rising. Consider short - position and rebound attempts [76][78]. Corn and Starch - The previous trading day saw corn and corn starch futures falling. The domestic corn supply - demand is approaching balance, and the inventory pressure has decreased. The import may increase in the future. It's advisable to wait and see, and corn starch will follow the corn market [79][81]. Logs - The previous trading day saw log futures rising. The number of incoming ships of New Zealand logs has increased, and the cost has changed. The inventory is basically stable. The demand is affected by the project fund availability. It is expected to oscillate and adjust before the first delivery [83][84].

早间评论 西南期货研究所 2025 年 7 月 3 日星期四 地址： 电话： 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-67070250 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 上海市浦东新区世纪大道 210 号 10 楼 1001； 021-50591197 | 4 | 国债： | | --- | --- | | 4 | 股指： | | 贵金属： 5 | | | 螺纹、热卷： 6 | | | 铁矿石： 6 | | | 焦煤焦炭： 7 | | | 铁合金： 7 | | | 8 | 原油： | | 燃料油： 9 | | | 合成橡胶： 9 | | | 天然橡胶： 10 | | | 10 | PVC： | | 11 | 尿素： | | 11 | 对二甲苯 PX： | | 11 | PTA： | | 乙二醇： 12 | | | 12 | 短纤： | | 13 | 瓶片： | | 13 | 纯碱： | | 14 | 玻璃： | | 14 | 烧碱： | | 15 | 纸浆： | | 碳酸锂： 16 | | | 铜： | 16 | | --- | --- | | 锡： | 17 | | 镍： | 17 | | 豆油、豆粕 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - For Treasury bonds, it's expected that there will be no trend - based market, and caution is advised [6][7]. - Regarding stock index futures, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is optimistic, and considering going long on stock index futures is recommended [8][9]. - For precious metals, the long - term bull market trend is expected to continue, and considering going long on gold futures is suggested [10][11]. - In the case of steel products (including rebar and hot - rolled coil), investors can focus on opportunities to go short on rebounds, with timely profit - taking and proper position management [13]. - For iron ore, investors can look for opportunities to go long at low positions, with timely profit - taking on rebounds and stop - loss if the previous low is broken [15]. - For coking coal and coke, investors can focus on opportunities to go short on rebounds, with timely profit - taking and proper position management [18]. - For ferroalloys, the short - term demand has reached its peak, and the supply is still high. It's advisable to be cautious for long positions. If the spot losses increase significantly, consider low - value call options [20][21]. - For crude oil, it's expected to oscillate at a low level, and investors can focus on going long opportunities for the main contract [23][24]. - For fuel oil, it's expected to gradually bottom out in the short term. After the decline eases, look for opportunities to go long. Currently, the main contract is recommended to be on the sidelines [25][26]. - For synthetic rubber, wait for it to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [27][28]. - For natural rubber, pay attention to opportunities to go long after it stabilizes [29][30]. - For PVC, it's expected to oscillate and consolidate temporarily [31][32]. - For urea, it's expected to oscillate in the short term and be bullish in the medium term [33][34]. - For PX, it will oscillate and adjust in the short term. Be cautious when participating and pay attention to changes in crude oil prices and the Middle - East situation [35]. - For PTA, it may oscillate and adjust in the short term. Participate with a light position and control risks [36][37]. - For ethylene glycol, be cautious about the downside space. Pay attention to port inventory and import changes [38]. - For short - fiber, follow the cost side and participate with a light position. Look for opportunities to widen the processing margin at low levels [39][40]. - For bottle - grade chips, it's expected to oscillate following the cost side. Be cautious when participating and pay attention to opportunities to widen the processing margin at low levels [41]. - For soda ash, it's expected to adjust weakly in the short term, and it's not advisable to chase short - term rebounds excessively [42][43]. - For glass, although there may be short - term bullish sentiment, its sustainability is limited. Short - position holders at low levels should control their positions, and it's not advisable to chase short - term rebounds excessively [44]. - For caustic soda, the overall supply - demand is still relatively loose, and regional differences are obvious. Previous long - position holders should control their positions [45][46]. - For pulp, the market is under pressure due to high inventory and weak downstream demand [47]. - For lithium carbonate, the supply - demand surplus situation remains unchanged, and the price is difficult to reverse before large - scale elimination of mine - end capacity. Pay attention to warehouse receipts [48]. - For copper, the expectation of increased stimulus policies in China in the second half of the year is expected to support copper prices, and consider going long on the main contract of Shanghai copper [49][50]. - For tin, it's expected to oscillate strongly [51]. - For nickel, it's expected to oscillate [52]. - For soybean oil and soybean meal, consider long - position opportunities for soybean meal at low - support intervals and call - option opportunities for soybean oil after its decline [53][54]. - For palm oil, consider opportunities to widen the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil [55][56]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, consider opportunities to go long on the oil - meal ratio [57][58]. - For cotton, consider opportunities to go long on the oil - meal ratio [59][60]. - For sugar, it's advisable to wait and see [61][64]. - For apples, pay attention to third - party research data on production as the estimated reduction in production is less than expected [65][66]. - For live pigs, pay attention to the supply - side volume increase. Consider taking profits on long - spreads for peak - season contracts [66][67]. - For eggs, consider short - selling on rebounds [68][70]. - For corn and corn starch, it's advisable to wait and see for corn, and corn starch follows the corn market [71][73]. - For logs, beware of short - term corrections as the market sentiment is stimulated in the short term, but the premium on the futures is relatively sufficient [75][76]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Treasury Bonds - The previous trading day saw most treasury bond futures close higher. The 30 - year main contract rose 0.28%, the 10 - year main contract rose 0.10%, the 5 - year main contract rose 0.06%, and the 2 - year main contract fell 0.01% [5]. - The central bank conducted 131 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on July 1st, with a net withdrawal of 275.5 billion yuan [5]. - The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI in June was 50.4, up 2.1 percentage points from May. Supply and demand both rebounded to some extent [6]. Stock Index Futures - The previous trading day saw mixed performance in stock index futures. The CSI 300 stock index futures (IF) main contract fell 0.03%, the SSE 50 stock index futures (IH) main contract rose 0.08%, the CSI 500 stock index futures (IC) main contract rose 0.01%, and the CSI 1000 stock index futures (IM) main contract fell 0.36% [8]. Precious Metals - The previous trading day, the gold main contract closed at 776.1 with a 1.11% increase, and the silver main contract closed at 8,810 with a 0.55% increase [10]. Steel Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - The previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures showed weak oscillations. The latest price of Tangshan billet was 2,900 yuan/ton, Shanghai rebar was 2,990 - 3,090 yuan/ton, and Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3,170 - 3,190 yuan/ton [12][13]. - The downward trend in the real estate industry and over - capacity are the core factors suppressing rebar prices. The market is in the off - season, and prices are at a low level with limited downward space [13]. Iron Ore - The previous trading day, iron ore futures had a slight correction. PB powder port spot price was 700 yuan/ton, and Super Special powder was 592 yuan/ton [15]. - The supply - demand pattern has weakened marginally, and the price valuation is relatively high among black - series products [15]. Coking Coal and Coke - The previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures dropped significantly. The tightening of environmental inspections in major coal - producing areas previously pushed up coking coal prices, but the rebound may be near the end [17][18]. Ferroalloys - The previous trading day, the manganese - silicon main contract fell 0.95% to 5,624 yuan/ton, and the silicon - iron main contract fell 2.04% to 5,270 yuan/ton [20]. - The supply of manganese ore from Gabon decreased, and the supply of Australian ore increased. The demand for ferroalloys is weak, and the supply is still high [20]. Crude Oil - The previous trading day, INE crude oil bottomed out and rebounded, with a slowing decline. The number of US oil and gas rigs decreased to the lowest level since October 2021 [22]. - OPEC+ may continue to increase production, and crude oil is expected to oscillate at a low level [22][23]. Fuel Oil - The previous trading day, fuel oil oscillated downward. The fuel oil inventory in Fujairah exceeded 10 million barrels, and the supply is sufficient [25]. Synthetic Rubber - The previous trading day, the synthetic rubber main contract fell 0.09%. The supply pressure eased slightly, and demand improvement was limited [27]. Natural Rubber - The previous trading day, the natural rubber main contract rose 0.61%, and the 20 - grade rubber main contract rose 1.15%. The price may continue to oscillate widely [29]. PVC - The previous trading day, the PVC main contract fell 2.09%. Production is expected to decline, demand shows no sign of improvement, and cost support is strengthening [31]. Urea - The previous trading day, the urea main contract rose 0.35%. Agricultural demand is ending, and industrial demand is tepid. Pay attention to the export situation [33]. PX - The previous trading day, the PX2509 main contract fell 0.47%. The supply - demand balance is tight, but cost support is insufficient [35]. PTA - The previous trading day, the PTA2509 main contract fell 0.5%. Some production facilities are under maintenance, demand has declined, and cost support is weak [36][37]. Ethylene Glycol - The previous trading day, the ethylene glycol main contract rose 0.02%. The overall operating load decreased, inventory decreased significantly, and demand is weak [38]. Short - Fiber - The previous trading day, the short - fiber 2508 main contract rose 0.7%. Supply is high, demand is weak, and cost drivers are insufficient [39][40]. Bottle - Grade Chips - The previous trading day, the bottle - grade chips 2509 main contract fell 0.4%. Raw material prices are weak, but production facility maintenance has increased [41]. Soda Ash - The previous trading day, the soda ash 2509 main contract closed at 1,161 yuan/ton, down 0.68%. Production decreased slightly, and inventory increased [42]. Glass - The previous trading day, the glass 2509 main contract closed at 990 yuan/ton, up 0.20%. There is no obvious driving force in the supply - demand fundamentals [44]. Caustic Soda - The previous trading day, the caustic soda 2509 main contract closed at 2,365 yuan/ton, up 2.07%. Production increased slightly, and inventory rose [45]. Pulp - The previous trading day, the pulp 2509 main contract closed at 5,022 yuan/ton, down 0.44%. The market showed a dual decline in futures and spot prices [47]. Lithium Carbonate - The previous trading day, the lithium carbonate main contract closed at 62,780 yuan/ton, up 0.16%. Supply remains high, and demand has improved slightly [48]. Copper - The previous trading day, Shanghai copper oscillated upward. The spot price of 1 electrolytic copper was 79,860 - 80,120 yuan/ton [49]. Tin - The previous trading day, Shanghai tin oscillated, rising 0.32% to 268,200 yuan/ton. The supply of tin ore is tight [51]. Nickel - The previous trading day, Shanghai nickel rose 0.05% to 120,450 yuan/ton. The cost support has weakened, and consumption is not optimistic [52]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - The previous trading day, the soybean meal main contract rose 0.10% to 2,961 yuan/ton, and the soybean oil main contract fell 0.03% to 7,972 yuan/ton [53]. Palm Oil - The previous trading day, Malaysian palm oil continued to decline. Indonesia's palm oil exports in May increased by 53% year - on - year [55]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - In May 2025, China's rapeseed oil imports were 111,100 tons, down 38.9% month - on - month, and rapeseed meal imports were 194,600 tons, down 34.8% month - on - month [57]. Cotton - Similar to rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, in May 2025, China's rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal imports decreased [59]. Sugar - The previous trading day, domestic Zhengzhou sugar fell slightly, and overnight, ICE raw sugar fell 3% [61]. Apples - The previous trading day, domestic apple futures oscillated. The estimated reduction in apple production is less than expected [65]. Live Pigs - The previous trading day, the national average price of live pigs was 15.08 yuan/kg, up 0.19 yuan. Group - farm slaughter volume decreased at the beginning of the month [66]. Eggs - The previous trading day, the average price of eggs in the main production areas was 2.65 yuan/jin, down 0.02 yuan, and in the main sales areas was 2.96 yuan/jin, down 0.01 yuan [68]. Corn and Corn Starch - The previous trading day, the corn main contract rose 0.29% to 2,383 yuan/ton, and the corn starch main contract rose 0.44% to 2,743 yuan/ton [71]. Logs - The previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of logs closed at 787.0 yuan/ton, down 0.69%. Overseas export willingness has decreased, and domestic inventory is decreasing [74][75].