2025 年 4 月 3 日星期四 地址： 电话： 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-67070250 上海市浦东新区向城路 288 号 1101A； 021-61101856 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 | PVC： | | 11 | | --- | --- | --- | | 尿素： | | 11 | | 对二甲苯 | PX： | 12 | | PTA： | | 12 | | 乙二醇： | | 13 | | 短纤： | | 14 | | 瓶片： | | 14 | | 纯碱： | | 14 | | 玻璃： | | 15 | | 烧碱： | | 15 | | 纸浆： | | 16 | | 碳酸锂： | | 17 | | --- | --- | --- | | 铜： | | 17 | | 铝： | | 17 | | 锌： | | 18 | | 铅： | | 18 | | 锡： | | 19 | | 镍： | | 19 | | 工业硅/多晶硅： | | 19 | | 豆油、豆粕： | | 20 | | 棕榈油： | | 21 | | 菜粕、菜油： | | 21 | | 棉花： | | 22 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views - The market for government bonds is expected to have increased volatility, and caution is advised [5][6]. - Despite short - term fluctuations, the stock index is still expected to rise, and it is advisable to consider buying index futures on dips [9][10]. - The medium - and long - term logic for precious metals remains strong, and existing long positions can be held [11][12]. - For steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coils, investors can look for low - level buying opportunities and take profits on rebounds, with light - position participation [14][15]. - For iron ore, investors can look for low - level buying opportunities and take profits on rebounds, with light - position participation [16][17]. - For coking coal and coke, investors can look for low - level buying opportunities and take profits on rebounds, with light - position participation [19][20]. - For ferroalloys, there may be an opportunity to focus on deep out - of - the - money call options for manganese silicon in the low - level range, and short - position holders of ferrosilicon can consider exiting at the bottom [21][22]. - For crude oil, it is advisable to temporarily hold off on trading the main contract [24][25]. - For fuel oil, it is advisable to temporarily hold off on trading the main contract [26][27]. - For polyolefins, it is recommended to take a long position in the PP and L main contracts [28][29]. - For synthetic rubber, it is advisable to temporarily hold off on trading [30][31]. - For natural rubber, it is recommended to trade based on the range - bound thinking [32][33]. - For PVC, the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [35][37]. - For urea, it is expected to be strong in the short term, but attention should be paid to the risk of decline in the future [38][39]. - For PX, it is expected to oscillate and adjust following the cost side, and investors can consider participating cautiously on dips [40]. - For PTA, it is recommended to operate cautiously and seize opportunities based on supply - demand changes [41]. - For ethylene glycol, the price is expected to be under pressure in the short term, and investors should operate cautiously [42]. - For short - fiber, it is recommended to trade within a range following the cost side [43]. - For bottle chips, it is expected to adjust following the cost side, and attention should be paid to cost price changes [44]. - For soda ash, the market is still demand - driven in the short term [45]. - For glass, the actual supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious drivers, and the inventory reduction speed needs to be continuously monitored [48]. - For caustic soda, the price is expected to oscillate as a whole [49]. - For pulp, it is expected to be weak and oscillate in the short term [52]. - For lithium carbonate, the upside pressure is expected to be large, and attention should be paid to upstream mine disturbances [53]. - For copper, the price is in a stage of adjustment [54][55]. - For aluminum, the price is expected to oscillate in a wide range [56][57]. - For zinc, the price is expected to oscillate within a range [58][59]. - For lead, the price is expected to oscillate under pressure [60][61]. - For tin, attention should be paid to the impact of the earthquake in Myanmar [62]. - For nickel, the price has support below, but the upside space may be limited [63]. - For industrial silicon, the price is expected to be weak, while the polysilicon market is relatively stable [64]. - For soybean oil and soybean meal, it is advisable to wait and see, and consider long - position attempts at the bottom - support range after a decline [65][66]. - For palm oil, it is advisable to temporarily hold off on trading [67][68]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, consider the opportunity to expand the spread after the soybean - rapeseed spread narrows [69][70]. - For cotton, consider short - selling after a rebound [73][74]. - For sugar, consider buying on dips [77][78]. - For apples, consider buying on dips [79]. - For live pigs, consider the far - month opportunities after a rebound [80][81]. - For eggs, consider short - selling the far - month contracts on rallies [82][83]. - For corn, it is advisable to temporarily hold off on trading [84][85]. - For logs, beware of a rapid decline if the reality is weaker than expected [88]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Government Bonds - The previous trading day saw most government bond futures closing down, with the 30 - year contract up 0.15%, and the 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year contracts down 0.08%, 0.04%, and 0.04% respectively [5]. - The central bank conducted 649 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on April 1st, with a net withdrawal of 313 billion yuan [5]. - The March Caixin China Manufacturing PMI reached 51.2, the highest since December 2024 [5]. Stock Index - The previous trading day saw small fluctuations in stock index futures, with the CSI 300 futures up 0.08%, the SSE 50 futures down 0.11%, the CSI 500 futures up 0.66%, and the CSI 1000 futures up 0.39% [7]. - A national conference on promoting the replacement of consumer goods was held, emphasizing work promotion and policy implementation [7]. Precious Metals - The previous trading day saw the gold main contract closing at 736.3, up 0.89%, and the silver main contract closing at 8,432, down 0.87% [11]. - The eurozone's March CPI and core CPI data showed certain changes, and the unemployment rate hit a record low [11]. - The Fed has paused rate cuts, and the future rate - cut rhythm is highly uncertain [11]. Steel Products Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - The previous trading day saw rebar and hot - rolled coil futures oscillating. The spot price of Tangshan billet was 3050 yuan/ton, and Shanghai rebar was 3100 - 3210 yuan/ton, and hot - rolled coils were 3330 - 3350 yuan/ton [13]. - The weak real - estate demand and increasing rebar production suppress prices, but macro policies and the peak season may provide support [14]. Iron Ore - The previous trading day saw a significant rebound in iron ore futures. PB powder was 790 yuan/ton, and super - special powder was 650 yuan/ton [16]. - The increasing iron - water production supports demand, and the supply - side situation has changed, with port inventory decreasing [16]. Coking Coal and Coke - The previous trading day saw a strong rebound in coking coal and coke futures. Some coal - washing enterprises and traders have started to purchase, and the market sentiment has improved slightly [18]. - The demand from coking enterprises has increased, and the fundamentals of coke have shown signs of continuous improvement [19]. Ferroalloys - The previous trading day saw the manganese - silicon main contract up 0.95% to 6146 yuan/ton, and the ferrosilicon main contract up 0.37% to 5984 yuan/ton [21]. - The manganese - ore supply may be disturbed, and the demand for ferroalloys is weak, while the supply is still high [21]. Energy Crude Oil - The previous trading day saw INE crude oil opening high and closing higher, up more than 3.4% [23]. - Fund managers increased their net long positions in US crude oil futures and options, and the number of US oil and gas rigs decreased [23]. - The market may be chaotic due to factors such as US - Russia negotiations and OPEC's production increase [24]. Fuel Oil - The previous trading day saw fuel oil rising sharply following crude oil. The domestic low - sulfur 180cst fuel oil had a certain price range [26]. - High - sulfur fuel oil supply may be tight, but the global shipping market may be affected by the trade war [26]. Chemicals Polyolefins - The previous trading day saw the polyethylene market adjusting, and the polypropylene futures oscillating upward. The cost side provided some support, but the demand did not change significantly [28]. - The "Golden March" season is obvious, and the overall demand for polyolefins is expected to be slightly better, with the market expected to be oscillating strongly [28]. Synthetic Rubber - The previous trading day saw the synthetic rubber main contract up 0.29%. The开工 loss has been narrowing, and the inventory has been decreasing [30]. - The butadiene price is weakly oscillating, and the supply and demand situation has certain characteristics [30]. Natural Rubber - The previous trading day saw the natural rubber main contract down 0.48%, and the 20 - grade rubber main contract flat. The market will continue the pattern of "high supply + weak demand" in April [32]. - The supply in Yunnan may increase, and the demand is weak, but the low social inventory provides some support [32]. PVC - The previous trading day saw the PVC main contract up 0.53%. The supply - side capacity utilization has increased, and the demand - side downstream enterprises have a certain procurement pattern [35]. - The export is still dependent on low prices, and the cost has decreased, but high inventory and new capacity put pressure on prices in the long term [35]. Urea - The previous trading day saw the urea main contract up 3.27%. The short - term spring - plowing demand and policy dividends support the strong operation, but long - term risks exist [38]. - The supply is expected to be around 200,000 tons per day, and the demand from agriculture and industry has different characteristics [38]. PX - The previous trading day saw the PX2505 main contract up 1.84%. The PXN and PX - MX spreads have adjusted, and the PX load has decreased due to multiple plant overhauls [40]. - The cost side is supported by the rising crude oil price, and the short - term PX is expected to oscillate and adjust [40]. PTA - The previous trading day saw the PTA2505 main contract up 0.82%. The supply - side load has increased, and the demand - side polyester load is expected to rise further [41]. - The cost side is supported by the rising crude oil price, and the PTA price is expected to oscillate following the cost side [41]. Ethylene Glycol - The previous trading day saw the ethylene glycol main contract up 1.8%. The coal - based plant load has decreased, and the inventory has increased and is difficult to reduce [42]. - The downstream polyester demand is gradually improving, but the peak - season performance is not as expected, and the price is expected to be under pressure [42]. Short - Fiber - The previous trading day saw the short - fiber 2505 main contract up 0.97%. The supply - side load has declined slightly, and the demand - side terminal factories' raw - material inventory is stable [43]. - The cost side support is weakening, and the short - fiber price is expected to follow the cost side [43]. Bottle Chips - The previous trading day saw the bottle - chip 2505 main contract up 0.93%. The cost support is slightly insufficient, and the supply - side load is expected to increase [44]. - The downstream soft - drink consumption is gradually recovering, and the bottle - chip price is expected to adjust following the cost side [44]. Soda Ash - The previous trading day saw the main 2505 contract closing at 1388 yuan/ton, up 0.14%. Some plants have carried out overhauls, and the supply is adjusting at a high level [45]. - The inventory has been decreasing slightly, and the market is still demand - driven in the short term [45]. Glass - The previous trading day saw the main 2505 contract closing at 1235 yuan/ton, up 4.04%. The number of production lines has decreased, and the impact on the supply - demand pattern is limited [47][48]. - The actual supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious drivers, and the inventory reduction speed needs to be monitored [48]. Caustic Soda - The previous trading day saw the main 2505 contract closing at 2515 yuan/ton, down 1.30%. The production of large - scale caustic - soda enterprises has decreased [49]. - The alumina price is expected to be weak, and the caustic - soda price is expected to oscillate [49]. Pulp - The previous trading day saw the main 2505 contract closing at 5638 yuan/ton, down 1.02%. Some pulp mills have maintenance plans, and the port inventory has decreased [51][52]. - The downstream demand has a certain pattern, and the price is expected to be weak and oscillate in the short term [52]. Non - Ferrous Metals Lithium Carbonate - The previous trading day saw the lithium carbonate main contract closing up 0.49% to 74,360 yuan/ton. The supply is increasing, and the demand has improved, but the inventory is still rising [53]. - The upside pressure is large, and attention should be paid to upstream mine disturbances [53]. Copper - The previous trading day saw the Shanghai copper main contract closing at 79,820 yuan/ton, down 0.1%. The overseas economic data is mixed, and Trump's tariff policy has escalated [54]. - The copper concentrate supply is tight, and the domestic consumption is in the peak season, but the trade friction affects exports [54]. Aluminum - The previous trading day saw the Shanghai aluminum main contract closing at 20,415 yuan/ton, down 0.34%, and the alumina main contract closing at 2,942 yuan/ton, down 0.07% [56]. - The alumina supply pressure is strong, and the electrolytic aluminum consumption recovery is beneficial for inventory reduction [56]. Zinc - The previous trading day saw the Shanghai zinc main contract closing at 23,305 yuan/ton, down 0.91%. The zinc concentrate processing fee is rising, and the refined zinc production is expected to increase [58]. - The consumption is in the peak season, and the social inventory is expected to decrease [58]. Lead - The previous trading day saw the Shanghai lead main contract closing at 17,360 yuan/ton, down 0.26%. The primary lead production has declined slightly, and the secondary lead production is difficult to increase significantly [60]. - The "trade - in" policy has a slight impact on consumption, and the price is expected to oscillate under pressure [60]. Tin - The previous trading day saw tin up 0.89% to 289,000/ton. The mine - end supply is disturbed, and the domestic processing fee is low, and the inventory has increased [62]. - Attention should be paid to the impact of the earthquake in Myanmar [62]. Nickel - The previous trading day saw the nickel price up 0.49% to 129,300 yuan/ton. The cost is supported by factors such as policy and season, but the downstream acceptance of high prices is low [63]. - The stainless - steel demand is weak, and the market may remain in a supply - surplus situation [63]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - The previous trading day saw the industrial silicon main contract closing at 9,790 yuan/ton, down 0.31%, and the polysilicon main contract closing at 43,560 yuan/ton, up 0.28% [64]. - The industrial silicon market is in a supply - surplus situation, while the polysilicon market is supported by supply and demand [64]. Agricultural Products Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - The previous trading day saw the soybean - meal main contract down 0.92% to 2804/ton, and the soybean - oil main contract down 0.90% to 7896 yuan/ton [65]. - The US soybean planting area is slightly lower than expected, and the domestic soybean supply is expected to increase, while the demand has certain characteristics [65][66]. Palm Oil - The domestic palm - oil import in January - February 2025 decreased by 44.9% year - on - year, and the inventory is at a relatively low level [67]. - It is advisable to temporarily hold off on trading [68]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed has risen, and China has imposed a 100% tariff on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes since March 20, 2025 [69]. - The impact on rapeseed

2025 年 4 月 1 日星期二 地址： 电话： 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-67070250 上海市浦东新区向城路 288 号 1101A； 021-61101856 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 | 国债: | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 股指: .. | | | | 贵金属: | | ﺭ | | 螺纹、热卷: . | | 0 | | 铁矿石: . | | | | 焦煤焦炭: | | ( | | 铁合金: | | 1 | | 原油: | | 8 | | 燃料油: | | | | 聚烯烃: | | | | 合成橡胶: | .. | | | 天然橡胶: | | 10 | | PVC: | | 11 | | 尿素: | | 11 | | 对二甲苯 PX. . | | | | PTA: . | | | | 乙二醇: 13 | | | | 短纤: | | | | 瓶片: . | | | | 纯碱: | .. | | | 玻璃: | .. | | | 烧碱: | .. | | | 碳酸锂： | | 16 | | --- | --- | --- | | 铜： | | 17 ...

地址： 电话： 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-67070250 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 | 纸浆： 16 | | --- | 2025 年 3 月 31 日星期一 上海市浦东新区向城路 288 号 1101A； 021-61101856 | 碳酸锂： 17 | | --- | | 铜： 17 | | 铝： 17 | | 锌： 18 | | 铅： 18 | | 锡： 19 | | 镍： 19 | | 工业硅/多晶硅： 19 | | 豆油、豆粕： 20 | | 棕榈油： 21 | | 菜粕、菜油： 21 | | 棉花： 22 | | 白糖： 23 | | 苹果： 23 | | 生猪： 24 | | 鸡蛋： 25 | | 玉米： 25 | | 原木： 26 | | 免责声明 27 | 国债： 上一交易日，30 年期主力合约跌 0.49%，10 年期主力合约跌 0.08%，5 年期主力合 约跌 0.04%，2 年期主力合约涨 0.00%。 公开市场方面，3 月 28 日，中国央行开展 785 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作，操作利率 为 1.5%。当日 930 亿元逆回购到期。 中国人民银行召开 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro data remains stable, but the market's confidence in macro - economic recovery is weak. More macro - support policies are expected to be gradually implemented. For different futures products, the market trends vary, and corresponding investment strategies are proposed for each product [5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Fixed - Income Products Treasury Bonds - The previous trading day saw a full - line decline in treasury bond futures. The current macro data is stable, but the market's confidence in economic recovery is weak. The upward logic of treasury bond futures is fully priced, and the downward movement requires economic recovery. It is expected that there will be no trend - like market in the future, with increased volatility, and caution is advised [5]. Stock Index Futures - The previous trading day witnessed a slight oscillation in stock index futures. The stable macro data helps reverse the market's pessimistic expectations. More macro - support policies will be implemented, and the market is expected to improve. Despite overseas trade uncertainties, the market has long - standing expectations. The current valuation of major indices is low, with room for improvement. It is still optimistic about the subsequent trend of stock indices, and it is advisable to consider buying stock index futures on dips [7][8]. Precious Metals - The previous trading day saw an increase in the prices of gold and silver. The US GDP and PCE data were released, and the Fed paused rate cuts. The US announced tariffs on multiple countries, increasing market risk aversion. The long - term logic of precious metals remains strong, and it is recommended to hold existing long positions [10]. Base Metals Copper - The previous trading day saw a decline in the price of copper. The Fed maintained the interest rate range, and the dollar index was revised upwards. The spot processing fee of copper concentrate decreased, and the production of electrolytic copper is expected to decline. The traditional consumption season is coming, but high prices may affect the processing enterprises' production. The de - stocking speed of social inventory has slowed down. It is advisable to be cautious when chasing the rise [54][55]. Aluminum - The previous trading day saw a decline in the prices of aluminum and alumina. The supply of alumina is abundant, and the production of electrolytic aluminum has a small increase. The consumption season is coming, and the consumption end has rigid support. The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum and aluminum rods has decreased. The price of alumina has limited upward space, and the aluminum price is expected to continue to adjust [57]. Zinc - The previous trading day saw a decline in the price of zinc. The processing fee of zinc concentrate is likely to rise, and the smelting profit has improved. The supply is expected to increase. The impact of environmental protection in the north has subsided, and the consumption has improved. The social inventory of refined zinc has decreased. The zinc price is expected to continue to oscillate within a range [59]. Lead - The previous trading day saw a decline in the price of lead. The processing fee of lead concentrate remained stable, and a large - scale primary lead smelter has a maintenance plan. The production of recycled lead will increase. The terminal consumption has no obvious change, and the traditional off - season is coming. The social inventory of electrolytic lead has increased. The lead price is under pressure [61]. Tin - The previous trading day saw an increase in the price of tin. The supply of tin ore is disturbed, and the processing fee is low. The raw material inventory of smelters has decreased, and the operating rate is lower than normal. The downstream orders are not as expected, and the high price has inhibited procurement. The domestic inventory has increased, and the overseas de - stocking has slowed down. The price is expected to oscillate [63]. Nickel - The previous trading day saw a decline in the price of nickel. The news has increased the disturbance, and the cost is strongly supported. The downstream acceptance of high prices is low, and the demand is weak. The stainless - steel market has weak transactions, but the profit has recovered. The market is expected to remain in a supply - surplus situation, and the price has limited upward space [64]. Energy and Chemical Products Crude Oil - The previous trading day saw INE crude oil open high and then decline. The CFTC data showed that fund managers reduced their net long positions in US crude oil futures and options. The number of oil and gas rigs in the US increased. OPEC announced a new compensation - based production cut plan. The negotiation between the US and Russia ended without a joint statement, and the situation in Ukraine is complex. The OPEC production increase date is approaching, and the crude oil price is expected to face resistance and decline. It is advisable to take a short - position operation on the main crude oil contract [22][23]. Fuel Oil - The previous trading day saw fuel oil decline following crude oil. Asian merchants expect an increase in fuel oil supply from the Middle East and Africa, and more European fuel oil is flowing to Asia. The supply and demand fundamentals are loose, and the high - sulfur fuel oil market is weak. The pressure on the high - sulfur fuel oil market will increase in the future. The low - sulfur fuel oil market is expected to fluctuate within a range. It is advisable to take a short - position operation on the main fuel oil contract [25][26]. Polyolefins - The previous trading day saw the polyethylene market price adjust, and the polypropylene futures oscillated within a range. The supply is expected to increase as new production capacity is released and previous maintenance devices restart. The social inventory is high, and the de - stocking speed is slow. The downstream demand recovers slowly, and the overall market is in a supply - demand imbalance. The polyolefin market is expected to oscillate with a slightly upward trend this week. It is advisable to take a long - position operation on the PP and L main contracts [28][29]. Agricultural Products Soybean Meal and Soybean Oil - The previous trading day saw a decline in the price of soybean meal and an increase in the price of soybean oil. The dollar weakened, and the market expects a decrease in the US soybean planting area in the 25/26 season. The soybean crushing volume of major oil mills decreased last week. The inventory of soybean meal continued to increase, and the inventory of soybean oil decreased. The consumption of soybean oil is expected to grow moderately, and the consumption of soybean meal is expected to increase slightly. The supply of domestic soybeans is expected to increase, and the price of soybean meal may face pressure in the short term. The soybean oil inventory has difficulty in de - stocking and may continue to fluctuate within a range. It is advisable to wait and see, and consider a long - position attempt at the bottom - support range after the price decline [66][67]. Palm Oil - The previous trading day saw an increase in the price of palm oil. The inventory of Indonesian palm oil increased in January, and the export decreased. The export of Malaysian palm oil decreased in March. The domestic palm oil inventory is at a low level in the past 7 years. The catering consumption has increased. It is advisable to close short positions [68]. Cotton - The previous trading day saw domestic cotton oscillate weakly, and the overseas cotton price increased. The market is waiting for the new - year planting area report. The US cotton export sales decreased last week. The global cotton ending inventory was revised downwards. The domestic supply is sufficient, and the textile industry is in the peak season, but the demand is average. In the long - term, the overseas supply - demand is loose, and the domestic market lacks a strong upward drive. It is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling after the price rebound [73][74]. Sugar - The previous trading day saw domestic sugar oscillate, and the overseas raw sugar price declined. The Indian sugar production decreased, which may limit its export. The Thai sugar production increased. The domestic new - year production increase is less than expected, and the import volume in the first quarter is estimated to be low. The supply pressure is not large. It is advisable to consider taking a long - position operation on dips [76][77]. Apple - The previous trading day saw a slight decline in the price of apple futures. The exchange cancelled a delivery warehouse in Shandong, which is beneficial for reducing the delivery pressure. The market is preparing for the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, and the apple inventory is low. The trading in the production area is good, and the price is strong. The delivery in the sales area has increased, and the goods - taking is good. It is advisable to consider taking a long - position operation on dips [78]. Live Pigs - The previous trading day saw the national average price of live pigs decline. The supply of large - scale farms is expected to increase slightly in March, and the consumption is in the off - season. The secondary fattening volume has decreased. The spot price is expected to have limited downward movement. The frozen - product storage has started, and the futures price has limited upward movement. It is advisable to try short - selling near the semi - annual line pressure [81][84]. Eggs - The previous trading day saw a decline in the average price of eggs in the main production areas and a flat price in the main sales areas. The cost of eggs is low, and the breeding profit is still in a loss. The inventory of laying hens has increased, and the supply is expected to continue to increase in March. The consumption is in the off - season, and the egg price has a risk of decline. It is advisable to sell deep - out - of - the - money put options and pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling the far - month contract on rallies [85][86]. Corn - The previous trading day saw a decline in the price of corn futures. The US southern corn planting has started in advance, and the market expects an increase in the US corn planting area in the 25/26 season. The domestic grain - selling progress is over 80%, and the port inventory is high. The corn storage is continuing, and the import of US corn is suspended. The demand for corn maintains a slight increase. The domestic corn supply surplus is expected to ease, and the price has a bottom - support. The import may increase in the future, and the short - term supply pressure still exists. It is advisable to wait and see [87][88]. Logs - The previous trading day saw a slight increase in the price of logs. The domestic radiation - pine log inventory has slightly adjusted. The price of radiation - pine logs is stable. The current inventory is relatively neutral, and the real estate is in the de - stocking cycle. It is necessary to be vigilant against a rapid decline if the reality is weaker than expected [90][91].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various futures markets, including bonds, stock indices, precious metals, and commodities. It offers insights into market trends, supply - demand dynamics, and valuation, and suggests corresponding investment strategies for each market [5][7][10]. Summary by Category Bonds - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Treasury bond futures closed higher across the board, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year contracts rising by 0.63%, 0.27%, 0.18%, and 0.09% respectively. The central bank conducted 455.4 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 159.5 billion yuan [5]. - **Outlook**: The current macro - data is stable, but market confidence in economic recovery is weak. The upward logic of Treasury bond futures is fully priced, and a downward trend requires economic recovery. It is expected that there will be no trend in the future, with increased volatility. Caution is advised [5]. Stock Indices - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed results. The CSI 300 (IF) and SSE 50 (IH) futures fell by 0.26% and 0.50% respectively, while the CSI 500 (IC) and CSI 1000 (IM) futures rose by 0.10% and 0.42% respectively [7]. - **Outlook**: The current macro - data is stable, which helps reverse the market's pessimistic expectations. More macro - support policies will be implemented, and the current valuation of major indices is low. It is still optimistic about the future trend of stock indices, and it is recommended to go long on stock index futures on dips [8]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the gold and silver futures rose by 0.32% and 1.42% respectively. The US February durable goods orders data was better than expected [10]. - **Outlook**: The Fed has paused rate cuts, and the future rate - cut rhythm is uncertain. The US has imposed tariffs on multiple countries, increasing market risk aversion. The medium - to - long - term logic of precious metals remains strong. It is recommended to hold existing long positions [10]. Steel and Related Products - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, steel and related product futures showed mixed trends. For example, iron ore futures fluctuated, and the spot prices of steel products were at certain levels [12][15]. - **Outlook**: For steel products, the real - estate downturn suppresses demand, but macro - policies and the upcoming peak season may support prices. For iron ore, the increase in demand and the decrease in port inventory support prices. It is recommended to buy at low levels and take profits on rebounds, with attention to position management [13][15]. Energy Products - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil rose, and fuel oil followed crude oil with high - level fluctuations. The CFTC data showed a reduction in net long positions in US crude oil futures, and the Baker Hughes data showed an increase in the number of oil and gas rigs [22]. - **Outlook**: The US - Russia negotiation ended without a joint statement, and the OPEC+ will increase production in April, but the compensation measures may offset the impact. Crude oil is expected to fluctuate and rebound. For fuel oil, the cost - end support and supply - demand factors need to be considered. It is recommended to take long positions in both crude oil and fuel oil futures [23][26]. Chemical Products - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, various chemical product futures showed different trends. For example, PVC futures fell slightly, and PX futures rose [36][40]. - **Outlook**: For different chemical products, the supply - demand situation varies. For example, PVC is expected to bottom out and rise, while urea is expected to fluctuate. Different investment strategies are recommended according to the specific situation of each product [36][38]. Agricultural Products - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, agricultural product futures also showed mixed trends. For example, soybean meal and soybean oil futures fell, while apple futures rose [67][81]. - **Outlook**: The supply and demand of agricultural products are affected by factors such as harvest, consumption, and policies. For example, Brazilian soybean harvest affects the prices of soybean meal and soybean oil, and the cancellation of a delivery warehouse affects apple futures. Different investment strategies are recommended for different products [67][81]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, non - ferrous metal futures showed different trends. For example, copper futures fell, while nickel futures rose [55][64]. - **Outlook**: The prices of non - ferrous metals are affected by factors such as macro - policies, supply - demand, and cost. For example, the Fed's interest - rate decision affects copper prices, and the Indonesian policy affects nickel prices. Different investment strategies are recommended for different products [55][64].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The bond market is expected to have increased volatility, and caution is advised [5][6]. - The stock index is expected to have an upward trend despite short - term fluctuations, and it is advisable to go long on stock index futures on dips [7][8]. - The precious metals market has a strong medium - to long - term upward logic, and existing long positions can be held [9][10]. - For steel products such as rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, and coking coal and coke, investors can look for low - level buying opportunities, take profits on rebounds, and participate with light positions [11][12][14]. - For iron alloys, it is expected to be slightly oversupplied currently. Opportunities for deep out - of - the - money call options on manganese silicon can be considered in the low - level range, and short - position exit opportunities for ferrosilicon can be considered at the bottom [19][20]. - For crude oil, fuel oil, and polyolefins, it is advisable to take long positions in the main contracts [23][24][27]. - For synthetic rubber, it is advisable to wait and see [30][31]. - For natural rubber, PVC, the downward space is limited [32][33][35]. - For urea, it is advisable to take an oscillatory approach [36][38]. - For PX and PTA, it is advisable to participate in the low - level range, considering the changes in the cost of crude oil and the supply side [39][40]. - For ethylene glycol, it is advisable to operate cautiously, paying attention to port inventory and upstream and downstream device changes [41]. - For short - fiber, it is advisable to operate in the range following the cost side, controlling risks [42]. - For bottle chips, it is expected to adjust following the cost side, paying attention to cost price changes, new device launches, and device overhauls [43]. - For soda ash, the short - term market is still demand - driven [44]. - For glass, the overall pattern is still loose, and it is necessary to be vigilant against the weakening of the market after the disappointment of the consumption improvement expectation [45]. - For caustic soda, it is expected to be oscillatory overall [46][47]. - For pulp, it is expected to be weakly oscillatory in the short term [48]. - For copper, it is advisable to be cautious about chasing up [50][51]. - For aluminum, it is expected to be in an oscillatory adjustment [52][53]. - For zinc, it is expected to be in an interval oscillation [54][55]. - For lead, it is expected to be under pressure and oscillatory [56][57]. - For tin, it is expected to oscillate under the influence of supply disturbances and weak demand [58][59]. - For nickel, the short - term price has support below, but the upward space is limited under the pattern of oversupply [60]. - For industrial silicon, it is expected to be in low - level oscillation in the short term, while polysilicon prices are expected to rise steadily [61][62]. - For soybean oil and soybean meal, it is advisable to wait and see, and long - position attempts can be considered in the bottom support range after the price decline [63][64]. - For palm oil, it is advisable to continue to reduce short positions and advance the stop - profit [65][67]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, it is advisable to consider the opportunity to expand the spread after the narrowing of the soybean - rapeseed spread [68][69]. - For cotton, it is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity to short on rebounds [70][72]. - For sugar, it is advisable to go long on dips [73][75]. - For apples, it is advisable to go long on dips [76]. - For live pigs, it is advisable to try short - selling at high levels near the semi - annual line pressure [77][78]. - For eggs, it is advisable to sell deep out - of - the - money put options and pay attention to short - term short - selling opportunities at high levels in the far - month contracts [79][80]. - For corn, it is advisable to wait and see temporarily [81][82]. - For logs, it is necessary to be vigilant against a rapid decline if the reality is weaker than expected [83][84]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fixed - Income Market 3.1.1 Treasury Bonds - On the previous trading day, treasury bond futures closed higher across the board. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts rose by 0.49%, 0.13%, 0.07%, and 0.02% respectively. The central bank conducted 3779 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 1046 billion yuan. It is expected that there will be no trend market in treasury bond futures in the future, and the volatility will increase [5]. 3.2 Equity - Related Market 3.2.1 Stock Index Futures - On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures changed by 0.27%, 0.16%, 0.24%, and 0.12% respectively. It is expected that the stock index will have an upward trend, and it is advisable to go long on stock index futures on dips [7]. 3.3 Precious Metals Market 3.3.1 Gold and Silver - On the previous trading day, the closing price of the gold main contract was 706.76, with a decline of 0.05%, and the night - session closing price was 707.3; the closing price of the silver main contract was 8,249, with an increase of 0.01%, and the night - session closing price was 8360. The US economic data is weak, and international political and trade uncertainties provide new upward drivers for precious metals. The medium - to long - term logic is still strong, and existing long positions can be held [9]. 3.4 Black Metals Market 3.4.1 Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rebounded slightly. The real - estate industry's downward trend has not reversed, but new macro - incremental policies may be introduced, and the peak demand season is coming, which may support prices. The valuation is low, and the downward space is limited. It is advisable to look for low - level buying opportunities, take profits on rebounds, and participate with light positions [11][12]. 3.4.2 Iron Ore - On the previous trading day, iron ore futures rebounded slightly. The increase in iron ore demand and the decrease in port inventory support the price. The valuation level has decreased, but it is still the highest among black - series products. It is advisable to look for low - level buying opportunities, take profits on rebounds, and participate with light positions [14]. 3.4.3 Coking Coal and Coke - On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures rebounded slightly. The market sentiment of coking coal has improved slightly, and the fundamentals of coke are continuously improving. It is advisable to look for low - level buying opportunities, take profits on rebounds, and participate with light positions, paying attention to the impact of sudden factors [16][17]. 3.4.4 Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon - On the previous trading day, the manganese silicon main contract fell 0.29% to 6108 yuan/ton, and the ferrosilicon main contract fell 0.50% to 6002 yuan/ton. It is expected to be slightly oversupplied currently. Opportunities for deep out - of - the - money call options on manganese silicon can be considered in the low - level range, and short - position exit opportunities for ferrosilicon can be considered at the bottom [19][20]. 3.5 Energy Market 3.5.1 Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, INE crude oil oscillated upward. The CFTC data shows that fund managers reduced their net long positions in US crude oil futures and options. The number of US oil and gas rigs increased. OPEC + announced a new compensatory production - cut plan. It is expected that the cease - fire agreement will be negotiated, and OPEC + will increase production on April 1. The current trend is mainly oscillatory and rebounding. It is advisable to take long positions in the main contract [21][23][24]. 3.5.2 Fuel Oil - On the previous trading day, fuel oil followed crude oil and oscillated upward. The market expects an increase in supply, and the spread of high - sulfur fuel oil in Asia has declined, but the decline in European inventory limits the downward space. It is expected that high - sulfur fuel oil will be in short supply, and the trade war will have a negative impact on fuel oil. It is advisable to take long positions in the main contract [25][26][27]. 3.6 Chemicals Market 3.6.1 Polyolefins - For polyethylene, the market price was adjusted, and the low - price transactions improved, but the supply - demand was weak, and the confidence of market participants was insufficient. For polypropylene, the futures rebounded slightly, and the cost support was stable, but the demand did not improve significantly. It is expected that the market will be in an oscillatory and slightly upward trend. It is advisable to take long positions in the PP and L main contracts [28][29]. 3.6.2 Synthetic Rubber - On the previous trading day, the synthetic rubber main contract fell 0.22%. The operating loss has narrowed, the operating rate has rebounded significantly, and the factory inventory has been reduced. The raw material price is weak, and the supply is high. It is advisable to wait and see [30][31]. 3.6.3 Natural Rubber - On the previous trading day, the main contract of natural rubber rose 0.44%, and the 20 - number rubber main contract rose 0.07%. The import was lower than expected, and the previous negative factors have basically disappeared. The supply in the domestic Yunnan production area is expected to increase, and the overseas is in the low - production season. The demand has improved slightly. The social inventory is at a low level, which supports the price. The downward space is limited, and it is advisable to wait for new fundamental drivers to go long [32][33]. 3.6.4 PVC - On the previous trading day, the PVC main contract rose 0.59%. The core contradiction in the market is the game between the continuous release of new production capacity and the weak recovery demand under policy support. It is expected that PVC will have upward space after bottoming out. The production capacity utilization rate has increased, the demand is stable, the export is still dependent on low prices, and the profit has improved. The social inventory has decreased [34][35]. 3.6.5 Urea - On the previous trading day, the urea main contract rose 0.70%. The market has expectations for exports, but it needs further confirmation. The high production in March and winter - storage goods put pressure on the market. It is expected that the short - term market will oscillate. The supply is stable, the agricultural demand is ending, and the industrial demand is strong. The inventory has decreased [36][37][38]. 3.6.6 PX - On the previous trading day, the PX2505 main contract rose 0.32%. The PXN spread was adjusted to 200 US dollars/ton, and the PX - MX spread was 85 US dollars/ton. The PX device maintenance increased, the load decreased, and the downstream PTA start - up increased. The short - term cost of crude oil oscillated and rose, and the supply - demand structure continued to improve. It is advisable to participate in the low - level range, paying attention to the changes in crude oil cost and supply [39]. 3.6.7 PTA - On the previous trading day, the PTA2505 main contract rose 0.29%. The supply increased, the demand improved, and the processing fee decreased. The short - term supply - demand of PTA improved, and the external crude oil price adjusted at the bottom after stopping falling. The short - term support improved. It is advisable to operate in the low - level range, paying attention to the supply - demand situation [40]. 3.6.8 Ethylene Glycol - On the previous trading day, the ethylene glycol main contract rose 0.56%. The overall start - up load decreased slightly, the inventory was high, and the de - stocking was difficult. The downstream polyester start - up increased, and the demand gradually improved. It is expected that the price will be under pressure, and the rebound height will be limited. It is advisable to operate cautiously, paying attention to port inventory and device changes [41]. 3.6.9 Short - Fiber - On the previous trading day, the short - fiber 2505 main contract fell 0.33%. The device load increased, the demand improved slightly, and the cost support was insufficient. It is expected that the short - fiber will oscillate in the future, and it is advisable to operate in the range following the cost side, controlling risks [42]. 3.6.10 Bottle Chips - On the previous trading day, the bottle - chip 2505 main contract fell 0.16%. The cost support was slightly insufficient, the supply increased slightly, and the demand for downstream soft drinks gradually recovered. It is expected to adjust following the cost side, paying attention to cost price changes, new device launches, and device overhauls [43]. 3.6.11 Soda Ash - On the previous trading day, the main 2505 contract closed at 1439 yuan/ton, with an increase of 0.49%. Some devices were under maintenance, and the supply increased slightly. The production decreased slightly, the inventory decreased slowly, and the demand was average. The market is still demand - driven in the short term [44]. 3.6.12 Glass - On the previous trading day, the main 2505 contract closed at 1260 yuan/ton, with an increase of 3.70%. The number of production lines decreased, the inventory decreased, and the production - sales rate was high. The overall pattern is still loose, and it is necessary to be vigilant against the weakening of the market after the disappointment of the consumption improvement expectation [45]. 3.6.13 Caustic Soda - On the previous trading day, the main 2505 contract closed at 2552 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 0.51%. The production decreased slightly, the demand was weak, and the inventory accumulated rapidly. The alumina market is oversupplied, and the non - aluminum demand is also weak. It is expected to be oscillatory overall [46][47]. 3.6.14 Pulp - On the previous trading day, the main 2505 contract closed at 5754 yuan/ton, with an increase of 0.07%. The Finnish company will conduct annual maintenance, and the downstream demand has difficulty accepting high - price pulp. It is expected to be weakly oscillatory in the short term [48]. 3.7 Non - Ferrous Metals Market 3.7.1 Lithium Carbonate - On the previous trading day, the lithium carbonate main contract rose 0.33% to 73800 yuan/ton. The ore price fell, the supply continued to increase, the consumption improved slightly, and the inventory continued to accumulate [49]. 3.7.2 Copper - On the previous trading day, the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 82780 yuan/ton, with an increase of 1.3%. The Fed maintained the interest - rate range, and the Trump tariff policy showed signs of easing. The domestic central bank over - renewed the MLF. The copper concentrate processing fee decreased, the production will decrease, the traditional consumption season is coming, but the high price affects the consumption. The social inventory decreased, and the external market drove the internal market. It is advisable to be cautious about chasing up [50][51]. 3.7.3 Aluminum - On the previous trading day, the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 20675 yuan/ton, with an increase of 0.05%; the alumina main contract closed at 3098 yuan/ton, with an increase of 0.68%. The imported ore provides the main increment, the alumina supply is loose, the electrolytic aluminum production increase is small, and the consumption is in the peak season. The inventory decreased. It is expected to be in an oscillatory adjustment [52][53]. 3.7.4 Zinc - On the previous trading day, the Shanghai zinc main contract closed at 24205 yuan/ton, with an increase of 0.27%. The import of zinc ore increased, the smelting profit improved, and the supply will increase. The consumption improved, and the inventory decreased. It is expected to be in an interval oscillation [54][55]. 3.7.5 Lead - On the previous trading day, the Shanghai lead main contract closed at 17660 yuan/ton, with an increase of 0.74%. The lead concentrate processing fee was stable, a large - scale smelter

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The macro data remains stable, but the market's confidence in macro - economic recovery is weak. More macro - support policies are expected to be gradually implemented. The upside logic of Treasury bond futures is fully priced, and the downside requires economic recovery. It is expected that there will be no trend - based market for Treasury bond futures in the future, with increased volatility, and caution is advised [6]. - The current macro data helps reverse the market's pessimistic expectations about the macro - economy. More macro - support policies will be gradually implemented, and the main index valuations are at a low level. It is still optimistic about the subsequent trend of stock index futures, and it is recommended to consider buying on dips [8]. - The medium - and long - term logic of precious metals remains strong. The weakening of US economic data and international political and trade uncertainties provide new upward drivers. Holders of previous long positions can continue to hold [10]. - The downward trend of the real estate industry has not reversed, and weak demand suppresses rebar futures prices. However, new macro - increment policies and the upcoming peak demand season may support prices. The price valuation of steel is at a low level, and there are signs of a bottom -ing and rebound. Investors can pay attention to low - level buying opportunities and set stop - profits in time [12]. - The increase in iron ore demand and the decline in port inventory support the price. The valuation is relatively high, and there are signs of a bottom -ing and rebound. Investors can pay attention to low - level buying opportunities and set stop - profits in time [14]. - The market sentiment of coking coal has improved slightly, and the fundamentals of coke have shown continuous improvement. There are signs of a bottom -ing and rebound. Investors can pay attention to low - level buying opportunities and set stop - profits in time [15]. - The supply of ferroalloys is still high, and the demand is weak. The supply of manganese ore may be disturbed. For manganese silicon, consider deep out - of - money call options in the low - level range; for silicon iron, short - sellers in the bottom range can consider exiting [17][18]. - Crude oil is mainly in an oscillatory rebound trend. Consider taking a long position in the main crude oil contract [19][21]. - Fuel oil follows the trend of crude oil and oscillates upward. The cost end provides support, and high - sulfur fuel oil may face supply shortages. Consider taking a long position in the main fuel oil contract [22][23]. - The supply of polyolefins will increase, the inventory is high, and the demand recovers slowly. The market is expected to be in an oscillatory and slightly upward trend. Consider taking a long position in the PP and L main contracts [24][25][26]. - For synthetic rubber, the start - up loss has narrowed, the start - up rate has rebounded significantly, and the inventory has been destocked. Temporarily adopt a wait - and - see approach [27][28]. - For natural rubber, the previous negative factors have basically disappeared, and the downward space is limited. Wait for new fundamental drivers and consider taking a long position [29][30][31]. - The core contradiction of PVC lies in the game between new capacity release and weak recovery demand. It is expected to bottom out and have upward potential. The downward space is limited [32][33]. - For urea, the market has expectations for exports, but it needs further confirmation. The high daily output in March and winter - stored goods put pressure on the market. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [34][35]. - For PX, the short - term cost end oscillates upward, and the supply - demand structure continues to improve. It is expected to adjust in a slightly warmer oscillatory manner. Consider participating in the low - valuation range and pay attention to changes in crude oil prices and the supply end [36]. - For PTA, the short - term supply - demand situation has improved, and the support has been enhanced. It is recommended to consider buying in the low - level range and pay attention to supply - demand changes [37]. - For ethylene glycol, the inventory is at a high level and difficult to destock, suppressing the price. It is expected to be under pressure, and the rebound height may be limited [38]. - For short - fiber, the downstream demand is gradually recovering, but the cost support is limited. It is expected to oscillate and adjust, mainly following the cost end [39]. - For bottle - grade chips, the domestic demand is weak, but the export maintains a high growth rate. The supply - demand fundamentals lack a driving force, and it is expected to follow the cost end [40]. - For soda ash, the supply - demand pattern remains loose, and the market is mainly demand - driven in the short term [42]. - For glass, the overall supply is still abundant, and the market situation depends on downstream consumption, cold - repair of production lines, and real - estate policies [43][44][45]. - For caustic soda, the supply may have some elasticity, but the downstream demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate [46]. - For pulp, the supply may be supported during the maintenance season of large manufacturers, but the downstream demand has difficulty accepting high - priced pulp. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [47][48]. - For lithium carbonate, the supply continues to increase, the consumption has improved, and the inventory is accumulating. There is significant upward pressure, and attention should be paid to upstream mine disturbances [49]. - For copper, the strengthening of the US dollar and high prices may restrict the upward movement of copper prices. Caution is advised when chasing up [50][51][52]. - For aluminum, the alumina supply is loose, and the aluminum consumption is expected to be good. The aluminum price is expected to continue to adjust [53][54]. - For zinc, the supply is expected to increase, and the consumption is recovering. The zinc price is expected to continue to oscillate within a range [55][56]. - For lead, the traditional off - season and high prices are not conducive to consumption, and the lead price is under pressure [57][58]. - For tin, there are supply disturbances, but the demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate [59]. - For nickel, the cost has support, but the demand for high - priced products is low, and the supply - demand surplus pattern may continue. The upward space is limited [60]. - For industrial silicon, the supply is expected to be in surplus in March, and the price may remain in a low - level oscillation. For polysilicon, the demand is strong, and the price is expected to rise steadily [61]. - For soybean oil and soybean meal, the Brazilian soybean harvest is nearing completion, and the supply is expected to increase. The soybean meal price may be under pressure, and the soybean oil price may continue to oscillate. Consider a wait - and - see approach and try long positions in the bottom - support range [62][63]. - For palm oil, the export volume has declined, and the inventory is at a low level. Consider reducing short positions and setting stop - losses [64][65]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, the impact on rapeseed meal is greater than that on rapeseed oil. Consider the opportunity to expand the spread after the narrowing of the soybean - rapeseed spread [66][67][68]. - For cotton, the medium - and long - term supply - demand of the outer market is loose, and the domestic supply is sufficient. The downstream demand is average, and it is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities after a rebound [69][70][71]. - For sugar, there is some support for the outer - market raw sugar price, and the domestic supply pressure is not large. Consider buying on dips [73][74][75]. - For apples, consumption is better than expected, and the inventory is low. The short - term spot price is expected to be strong. Consider buying on dips [76]. - For live pigs, the supply - demand is in a stalemate in the short term. Consider short - selling near the semi - annual line resistance [77][79]. - For eggs, the supply is expected to increase in March, and it is in the off - season of consumption. Consider selling deep out - of - money put options and short - selling in the far - month contracts [80][81]. - For corn, the domestic supply surplus has eased slightly, and there is support at the bottom. However, there is still short - term supply pressure, and it is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach [82][83]. - For logs, the current inventory is relatively neutral, and there is a risk of a rapid decline if the reality is weaker than expected [84]. Summary by Related Catalogs Treasury Bonds - On the previous trading day, Treasury bond futures closed up across the board. The central bank conducted 135 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 346 billion yuan on the day. The 1 - 2 month national general public budget revenue decreased by 1.6% year - on - year, and the expenditure increased by 3.4% year - on - year [5]. - The central bank adjusted the MLF operation to multiple - price winning bids, which is expected to reduce bank liability costs. The macro - policy environment is positive, but the market's confidence in economic recovery is weak. It is expected that Treasury bond futures will have no trend - based market, with increased volatility [6]. Stock Index Futures - On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed results. The current macro data helps reverse the market's pessimistic expectations, and more macro - support policies will be implemented. The main index valuations are at a low level, and it is recommended to consider buying on dips [8]. Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, the gold and silver futures prices rose. The eurozone's March manufacturing PMI reached a 26 - month high. The Fed paused rate cuts, and the US imposed tariffs on multiple countries, increasing market risk - aversion sentiment. The medium - and long - term logic of precious metals is strong, and holders of previous long positions can continue to hold [10]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rebounded slightly. The real estate industry's downward trend has not reversed, and weak demand suppresses prices. However, new macro - policies and the peak demand season may support prices. The price valuation is at a low level, and there are signs of a bottom -ing and rebound. Investors can pay attention to low - level buying opportunities [12]. Iron Ore - On the previous trading day, iron ore futures rebounded significantly. The increase in demand and the decline in port inventory support the price. The valuation is relatively high, and there are signs of a bottom -ing and rebound. Investors can pay attention to low - level buying opportunities [14]. Coking Coal and Coke - On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures rebounded significantly. The market sentiment of coking coal has improved, and the fundamentals of coke have shown continuous improvement. There are signs of a bottom -ing and rebound. Investors can pay attention to low - level buying opportunities [15]. Ferroalloys - On the previous trading day, the manganese silicon and silicon iron futures prices rose. The supply of manganese ore may be disturbed, and the demand for ferroalloys is weak while the supply is still high. Consider deep out - of - money call options for manganese silicon in the low - level range and short - sellers in the bottom range of silicon iron can consider exiting [17][18]. Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, INE crude oil oscillated slightly. The US CFTC data showed a reduction in net long positions. The number of US oil and gas rigs increased. OPEC+ announced a new compensatory production - cut plan. The negotiation between Ukraine and the US on a cease - fire agreement is attracting global attention. OPEC+ will increase production in April, but the compensatory production - cut measures offset the concern about production increase. The price is mainly in an oscillatory rebound trend, and consider taking a long position [19][20][21]. Fuel Oil - On the previous trading day, fuel oil followed crude oil and oscillated upward. The Singapore and Fujairah fuel oil inventories increased. The cost end oscillates upward, and high - sulfur fuel oil may face supply shortages. Consider taking a long position [22][23]. Polyolefins - On the previous trading day, the polyethylene market price adjusted, and the polypropylene futures oscillated upward. The supply will increase, the inventory is high, and the demand recovers slowly. The market is expected to be in an oscillatory and slightly upward trend. Consider taking a long position in the PP and L main contracts [24][25][26]. Synthetic Rubber - On the previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures rose. The start - up loss has narrowed, the start - up rate has rebounded significantly, and the inventory has been destocked. Temporarily adopt a wait - and - see approach [27][28]. Natural Rubber - On the previous trading day, natural rubber futures rose. The previous negative factors have basically disappeared, and the downward space is limited. Wait for new fundamental drivers and consider taking a long position [29][30][31]. PVC - On the previous trading day, PVC futures rose. The core contradiction lies in the game between new capacity release and weak recovery demand. It is expected to bottom out and have upward potential. The downward space is limited [32][33]. Urea - On the previous trading day, urea futures fell slightly. The market has expectations for exports, but it needs further confirmation. The high daily output in March and winter - stored goods put pressure on the market. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [34][35]. PX - On the previous trading day, PX futures rose. The short - term cost end oscillates upward, and the supply - demand structure continues to improve. It is expected to adjust in a slightly warmer oscillatory manner. Consider participating in the low - valuation range and pay attention to changes in crude oil prices and the supply end [36]. PTA - On the previous trading day, PTA futures rose. The short - term supply - demand situation has improved, and the support has been enhanced. It is recommended to consider buying in the low - level range and pay attention to supply - demand changes [37]. Ethylene Glycol - On the previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures rose. The inventory is at a high level and difficult to destock, suppressing the price. It is expected to be under pressure, and the rebound height may be limited [38]. Short - Fiber - On the previous trading day, short - fiber futures fell. The downstream demand is gradually recovering, but the cost support is limited. It is expected to oscillate and adjust, mainly following the cost end [39]. Bottle - Grade Chips - On the previous trading day, bottle - grade chips futures rose. The domestic demand is weak, but the export maintains a high growth rate. The supply - demand fundamentals lack a driving force, and it is expected to follow the cost end [40]. Soda Ash - On the previous trading day, soda ash futures rose. The supply - demand pattern remains loose, and the market is mainly demand - driven in the short term [42]. Glass - On the previous trading day, glass futures rose. The overall supply is still abundant, and the market situation depends on downstream consumption, cold - repair of production lines, and real - estate policies [43][44][45]. Caustic Soda - On the previous trading day, caustic soda futures rose. The supply may have some elasticity, but the downstream demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate [46]. Pulp - On the previous trading day, pulp futures fell. Some large paper mills have maintenance plans, and the downstream demand has difficulty accepting high - priced pulp. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [47][48]. Lithium Carbonate - On the previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures rose. The supply continues to increase, the consumption has improved, and the inventory is accumulating. There is significant upward pressure, and attention should be paid to upstream mine disturbances [49]. Copper - On the previous trading day, copper futures rose. The Fed maintained the interest rate range, and the US economic data was mostly optimistic. The copper concentrate processing fee decreased, and the electrolytic copper production may decline. The traditional consumption season is coming, but high prices may limit the increase in processing enterprise start - up rates. The dollar strengthening and high prices may restrict the upward movement of copper prices. Caution is advised when chasing up [50][51][52]. Aluminum - On the previous trading day, aluminum futures fell slightly, and alumina futures rose. The import of bauxite provides the main increment, and the alumina supply is loose. The electrolytic aluminum production increment is small, and the consumption has rigid support. The aluminum price is expected to continue to adjust [53][54]. Zinc - On the previous trading day, zinc futures rose. The zinc concentrate processing fee is likely to rise, and the supply is expected to increase. The consumption is recovering, and the zinc price is expected to continue to oscillate within a range [55][56]. Lead - On the previous trading day, lead futures fell. The lead concentrate processing fee remained stable, and a large - scale primary lead smelter has a maintenance plan. The traditional off - season and high prices are not conducive to consumption, and the lead price is under pressure [57][58]. Tin - On the previous trading day, tin futures fell. There are supply disturbances, but the demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate [59]. Nickel - On the previous trading day, nickel futures fell. The cost has support, but the demand for high - priced products is low, and the supply - demand surplus pattern may continue. The upward space is limited [60]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - On the previous trading day,

期货从业证书号：F03116714 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0019298 1 期市有风险，投资需谨慎 2025 年 3 月 18 日 2025 年 1-2 月宏观数据跟踪和分析 研究员：万亮 邮箱：xnqh_wl@swfutures.com 1-2 月宏观数据是观察年初经济景气程度的主要依据，我们梳理了 1-2 月国 内重要的宏观经济数据，以增加对当前宏观经济运行节奏的理解。 整体上 1-2 月宏观数据保持平稳，消费和房地产领域显现出更多的积极信号。 制造业 PMI 季节性回升；物价回升力度偏弱，CPI 和 PPI 底部震荡；出口保持增 长；工业生产和消费增速回升；房地产市场销售同比降幅进一步收窄。2025 年政 府工作报告提出，今年发展主要预期目标是 GDP 增长 5%左右，实施更加积极的 财政政策，后续宏观政策仍有加码空间，有助于加快国内经济企稳复苏的进程。 一、制造业 PMI 季节性回升 2 月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为 50.2%，比上月上升 1.1 个百分点， 制造业景气水平明显回升。从企业规模看，大型企业 PMI 为 52.5%，比上月上升 2.6 个百分点，高于临界点；中、小型企业 PM ...

Economic Performance - July macroeconomic data remains weak, with overall recovery momentum needing strengthening[2] - Manufacturing PMI for July is at 49.4%, indicating three consecutive months below the critical line[3] - CPI in July shows a year-on-year increase of 0.5%, up from 0.2% in June, but the recovery strength is still weak[5] Trade and Investment - July exports grew by 7% year-on-year, below the expected 9.5%, while imports increased by 7.2%[8] - Fixed asset investment from January to July reached 287,611 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.6%[13] Financial Data - Social financing scale increased by 18.87 trillion yuan in the first seven months, down 3.22 trillion yuan from the previous year[9] - M1 decreased by 6.6% year-on-year, indicating weak consumer and business confidence[10] Real Estate Sector - Real estate development investment from January to July was 60,877 billion yuan, down 10.2% year-on-year[13] - New housing sales area decreased by 19% in the first half of the year, but the decline is expected to narrow due to lower year-on-year bases[14][17]