Economic Resilience and Recovery - In April, the manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.0%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity[4] - The non-manufacturing business activity index was at 50.4%, down 0.4 percentage points, but still indicates expansion[7] - April's consumer price index (CPI) fell by 0.1% year-on-year, reflecting weak domestic demand[8] - The producer price index (PPI) decreased by 2.7% year-on-year, indicating continued price pressure in the industrial sector[11] Trade and Investment Trends - Exports in April grew by 8.1% year-on-year, although the growth rate declined by 4.3 percentage points from the previous month; imports fell by 0.2%[14] - The total social financing scale increased by 16.34 trillion yuan in the first four months, with RMB loans to the real economy rising by 9.78 trillion yuan[19] - Fixed asset investment from January to April was 147,024 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 4.0%[30] Real Estate Market Dynamics - Real estate development investment in the first four months was 27,730 billion yuan, down 10.3% year-on-year, but the decline is narrowing[27] - New housing sales area decreased by 2.8% year-on-year, but the sales volume is showing signs of stabilization[29] - The inventory of unsold commercial housing slightly decreased, indicating potential for recovery in the real estate market[34] Overall Economic Outlook - The macroeconomic environment shows resilience but lacks strong upward momentum, necessitating increased policy support to boost market confidence[3] - Despite challenges, the overall trend for 2025 is expected to be upward, with patience required for recovery[38]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - economic data in April showed a two - sided nature. The domestic economy demonstrated strong resilience under tariff shocks, with high - speed consumption growth and better - than - expected exports. However, the recovery momentum needed to be strengthened, as indicated by the decline in manufacturing PMI, low price indices, and low real - estate new construction and investment growth rates. The overall macro - economic situation was bottom - supported but lacked upward momentum, and macro - policies were required to enhance market confidence. Despite the setbacks, the macro - economy and asset prices in 2025 were expected to continue the upward - repair trend [3][36][38]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Manufacturing PMI Significantly Declined under Tariff Shocks - In April, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, a 1.5 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month. The PMIs of large, medium, and small enterprises were all below the critical point and declined compared to the previous month. Among the 5 classification indices of manufacturing PMI, the supplier delivery time index was above the critical point, while the production, new order, raw material inventory, and employee indices were below it [4]. - The non - manufacturing business activity index in April was 50.4%, a 0.4 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month but still above the critical point. The construction and service industries also declined. With the reduction of Sino - US tariff rates, the manufacturing PMI in May was likely to rise [7]. 2. CPI and PPI Continued to Be Weak in April - In April 2025, the national CPI decreased by 0.1% year - on - year and increased by 0.1% month - on - month. The CPI was weak due to insufficient domestic demand. The PPI decreased by 2.7% year - on - year and 0.4% month - on - month. The decline in coal and crude oil prices in April dragged down the PPI, reflecting weak domestic demand and relative over - capacity in corresponding industries [8][9][11]. 3. Exports Increased by 8.1% Year - on - Year in April, while Imports Decreased by 0.2% - In April, exports increased by 8.1% year - on - year, with a 4.3 - percentage - point decline in growth rate compared to the previous month. Imports decreased by 0.2% year - on - year, with the decline significantly narrowing by 4.1 percentage points compared to the previous month. The trade surplus was $96.18 billion, a decrease of $6.46 billion from the previous month. Exports to the US decreased by 21% year - on - year. Despite the impact of tariffs, the high export growth rate might be related to "entrepot trade" and "rush - to - export" by enterprises. With the reduction of Sino - US tariffs, exports were expected to maintain high growth in the next few months [14][16]. 4. The Credit Structure in April Was Weak, while M1 and M2 Were in an Improving Trend - In the first four months of 2025, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 16.34 trillion yuan, 3.61 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. The credit structure was weak, as the confidence and credit demand of residents and enterprises were weakened by tariffs, but the significant increase in government bond issuance offset the decline in credit demand. M1 and M2 were in an upward trend overall [19][24]. 5. Industrial Production Was Stable, and Consumption Growth Remained High - In April, the added value of large - scale industries increased by 6.1% year - on - year and 0.22% month - on - month. The total retail sales of consumer goods in April were 3.7174 trillion yuan, a 5.1% year - on - year increase. The consumption growth rate remained high due to consumption - promotion policies, but the sales of automobiles and petroleum products dragged down the growth [25]. 6. Real - Estate Sales Adopted a Strategy of Trading Price for Volume and Had a Foundation for Stabilization - From January to April, the sales area of new commercial housing decreased by 2.8% year - on - year, and the sales volume decreased by 3.2% year - on - year, with the decline rates narrowing. The real - estate development investment decreased by 10.3% year - on - year. The real - estate market was expected to further narrow the decline in sales area and volume year - on - year. After the "policy bottom" in September 2024, the "market bottom" of this real - estate downward cycle was emerging, and the overall drag of real estate on the macro - economy would significantly narrow [27][31][35]. 7. Summary and Outlook - The macro - economic data in April showed two - sided characteristics. The domestic economy was resilient but lacked recovery momentum. The overall macro - economy was bottom - supported but lacked upward momentum. The domestic market had sufficient policy space to hedge against external demand decline through stimulating domestic demand. The macro - economy and asset prices in 2025 were expected to continue the upward - repair trend [36][38].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and monetary policy is expected to remain loose. It is recommended to be cautious about treasury bonds, optimistic about the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets, and consider going long on stock index futures. The long - term bullish trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and it is advisable to consider going long on gold futures. For various commodities, different investment strategies are proposed based on their respective fundamentals and market conditions [6][10][12] Summary by Directory Treasury Bonds - On the previous trading day, most treasury bond futures closed down. The central bank conducted 357 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 177 billion yuan. The 5 - month LPR was lowered by 10bp. It is expected that there will be no trend - based market, and caution should be maintained [5][7] Stock Index Futures - On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. Although the domestic economic recovery momentum is not strong and market confidence in corporate profits is lacking, considering the low valuation of domestic assets and China's economic resilience, it is still optimistic about the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [8][10][11] Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, gold and silver futures closed down. China's gold imports reached a new high in 11 months last month. Due to the complex global trade and financial environment and the trends of "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization", the long - term bullish trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and it is advisable to consider going long on gold futures [12][13] Steel Products (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil) - On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures declined slightly. The real - estate industry's downward trend has not reversed, suppressing rebar prices, but the peak - season demand may provide short - term support. The valuation of steel prices is low, and the market is in a weak - oscillation pattern. Investors can focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds and pay attention to position management [14][15] Iron Ore - On the previous trading day, iron ore futures fluctuated. The high iron - water production supports the demand for iron ore, and the supply pressure has been relieved. The port inventory has decreased. The valuation level has declined, and the futures rebounded after being supported at the previous low. Investors can focus on buying opportunities at low levels and pay attention to position management [16][17] Coking Coal and Coke - On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures fell significantly. The supply of coking coal is loose, and the trading atmosphere has weakened. For coke, although the steel - mill iron - water production is high, some steel mills' purchasing willingness has decreased. The futures may continue to decline in the short term. Investors can focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds and pay attention to position management [18][19][20] Ferroalloys - On the previous trading day, manganese - silicon and silicon - iron futures declined. The supply of manganese ore may be disturbed, and the demand for ferroalloys is weak while the supply is relatively high. High - level inventories put pressure on the market. For manganese - silicon, investors can consider out - of - the - money call options; for silicon - iron, short - sellers can consider exiting at the bottom [21][22] Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, INE crude oil fluctuated slightly. OPEC +'s crude - oil production increase continues, and there are concerns about oversupply. However, geopolitical risks may push up oil prices. It is advisable to consider long - position operations on the main crude - oil contract [23][24][25] Fuel Oil - On the previous trading day, fuel oil fluctuated upwards. The inventory in the ARA region and Singapore has decreased, and the global trade demand has recovered. It is advisable to temporarily observe the main fuel - oil contract [26][27] PX - On the previous trading day, the PX2509 main contract declined. The PX load has decreased, and the import volume has declined. The short - term crude - oil price fluctuates, and the PX valuation is being repaired. It is advisable to participate cautiously and pay attention to the cost - end crude - oil changes and macro - policy adjustments [27] PTA - On the previous trading day, the PTA2509 main contract declined. The PTA load has increased, and the polyester load has also increased. The cost support is insufficient. It is advisable to conduct range - bound operations and pay attention to risk control [28] Ethylene Glycol - On the previous trading day, the ethylene - glycol main contract declined. The supply has decreased, the port inventory may continue to decline slightly, and the demand has improved. However, the cost lacks driving force. It is expected to fluctuate and adjust, and attention should be paid to port inventory and macro - policy changes [29][30] Short - Fiber - On the previous trading day, the short - fiber 2506 main contract declined. The short - fiber device load is at a relatively high level, the downstream demand has slightly improved, but the cost support is insufficient. It is advisable to participate cautiously and pay attention to risk control [31] Bottle Chips - On the previous trading day, the bottle - chip 2506 main contract declined. The raw - material cost support still exists, the supply load has increased, and the downstream demand has recovered. It is expected to follow the cost - end operation, and attention should be paid to cost - price changes [32][33] Soda Ash - On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of soda ash closed down. Multiple device overhauls have led to a reduction in supply, but the long - term oversupply situation is difficult to alleviate. The price may continue to fluctuate steadily [34] Glass - On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of glass closed up. The actual supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious driving force. The market sentiment may be repaired in the short term, but the actual repair degree needs to be considered [35][37] Caustic Soda - On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of caustic soda closed down. The production has decreased, the inventory has increased, and the demand is limited. The price of alumina may support the price of caustic soda. Attention should be paid to the operation of enterprise devices and the fluctuation of liquid - chlorine prices [38] Pulp - On the previous trading day, the main 2507 contract of pulp closed up. The tariff negotiation has achieved results, giving the pulp market some confidence, but the supply is abundant, and the downstream demand is weak. The inventory has increased. It is expected that the market will rebound in the short term, and attention should be paid to the production - reduction actions of international pulp mills and the implementation of domestic consumption - stimulation policies [39][40][41] Lithium Carbonate - Recently, lithium - carbonate prices have continuously hit new lows. The supply may increase, and the demand may weaken. The current supply - demand surplus situation has not changed significantly. It is advisable to control risks in the short term, and the price rebound needs the support of large - scale upstream production reduction [42][43] Copper - On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper fluctuated downwards. The impact of Sino - US tariffs on the real economy and the callback pressure after the sharp rise of Shanghai copper are factors to consider. It is advisable to conduct short - position operations on the main Shanghai - copper contract [44][45] Tin - On the previous trading day, Shanghai tin rose. The supply may increase in the future, but the current consumption data is good, and the inventory is decreasing. The contradiction between the current shortage and the loose expectation exists, and the upward pressure on the tin price is relatively large. It is advisable to take a short - position view [46] Nickel - On the previous trading day, Shanghai nickel rose. The cost support is strong, but the downstream loss has increased, and the demand may weaken. The supply - demand surplus situation may continue. Attention should be paid to the opportunities after the repair of macro - sentiment [47] Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon - On the previous trading day, the industrial - silicon and polysilicon main contracts declined. The demand in the industrial chain is weak, the supply reduction is limited, and the cost support has weakened. The price fluctuation has intensified. It is recommended to maintain a short - position view and pay attention to the start - up changes in the southwest region during the wet season [48] Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - On the previous trading day, the soybean - meal main contract declined, and the soybean - oil main contract rose. The supply of soybeans may be abundant in the future. It is advisable to observe the soybean - meal main contract, and for soybean oil, out - of - the - money call options can be considered at the bottom - support range [49][50] Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil rose for the second consecutive day. The export volume has increased, and the domestic inventory is at a relatively low level. It is advisable to consider the opportunity to widen the spread between soybean oil and palm oil [51][53] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed rose. The domestic inventory of rapeseed has decreased, and the inventory of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil is at a relatively high level. It is advisable to consider the opportunity to go long on rapeseed meal after a callback [54][55] Cotton - On the previous trading day, domestic Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated. The suspension of Sino - US tariff increases is beneficial to cotton. The global cotton supply - demand situation and domestic planting conditions need to be considered. It is advisable to wait for a callback and then go long [56][57][58] Sugar - On the previous trading day, domestic Zhengzhou sugar fluctuated weakly. The Brazilian sugar production may increase, and the domestic inventory is low. It is expected to fluctuate within a range, and range - bound operations are advisable [59][60][61] Apples - On the previous trading day, domestic apple futures had little fluctuation. The production in some areas may decrease, and the inventory is at a relatively low level. It is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity to go long after a callback [62][63][64] Pigs - The national average price of pigs declined slightly. The supply may increase, and the demand is weak. It is advisable to temporarily observe [65][66] Eggs - The average price of eggs in the main production and sales areas declined. The egg - laying hen inventory is at a relatively high level, and the supply may increase. It is advisable to go short after a rebound [67][69] Corn and Corn Starch - On the previous trading day, the corn and corn - starch main contracts declined. The domestic corn supply - demand is approaching balance, but there is short - term supply pressure. Corn starch has weak production and demand. It is advisable to temporarily observe [70][71][72] Logs - On the previous trading day, the main 2507 contract of logs closed down. The expected arrival volume has increased, but the demand is weak, and the price is running weakly. The market has no obvious driving force [73][74]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - For Treasury bonds, it is expected that there will be no trend - like market, and caution is advised [6][7]. - For stock index futures, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is optimistic, and considering going long on stock index futures is recommended [8][9]. - For precious metals, the long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and considering going long on gold futures is advised [11][12]. - For steel products (including rebar, hot - rolled coil), investors can focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds, and participate with a light position [13]. - For iron ore, investors can focus on buying opportunities at low levels, and participate with a light position [14][15]. - For coking coal and coke, investors can focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds, and participate with a light position [16][17]. - For ferroalloys, for manganese silicon, consider virtual call option opportunities at low levels; for silicon iron, short - sellers can consider exiting at the bottom range, and also consider virtual call option opportunities at low levels if there are large - scale spot losses [18][19]. - For crude oil, it is recommended to temporarily wait and see for the main contract [20][21][22]. - For fuel oil, it is recommended to temporarily wait and see for the main contract [23][24][25]. - For PX, it is recommended to participate cautiously, pay attention to the changes in crude oil at the cost end and macro - policy adjustments [26]. - For PTA, it is recommended to conduct range trading and control risks [27][28]. - For ethylene glycol, it is expected to fluctuate and adjust, and caution is needed for the upside space, paying attention to port inventory and macro - policy changes [29]. - For staple fiber, it is recommended to participate cautiously and control risks [30][31]. - For bottle chips, it is recommended to participate cautiously and pay attention to cost price changes [32]. - For soda ash, the price is expected to continue to fluctuate steadily [33][34]. - For glass, it is expected that the market sentiment will be repaired to some extent in the short term, but the actual repair degree remains to be seen [35]. - For caustic soda, it is necessary to focus on the operation of enterprise equipment and the price fluctuation of liquid chlorine [36][37]. - For pulp, it is expected that the market will rebound in the short term, and it is necessary to pay attention to whether international pulp mills initiate substantial production cuts and the implementation rhythm of domestic consumption - stimulating policies [39][40]. - For lithium carbonate, it is expected to run weakly [41]. - For copper, it is recommended to temporarily wait and see for the main contract [42][43]. - For tin, it is expected that the price will face greater pressure above, and a bearish and fluctuating view is taken [44]. - For nickel, pay attention to opportunities after the repair of macro - sentiment [45]. - For industrial silicon/polysilicon, it is recommended to focus on the start - up changes in the southwestern region during the wet season, and maintain a bearish judgment overall [46][47][48]. - For soybean oil and soybean meal, for soybean meal, it is recommended to wait and see; for soybean oil, consider virtual call option opportunities at the bottom support range [49][50]. - For palm oil, consider the opportunity to widen the soybean - palm oil spread [51][52]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, consider the opportunity to go long after the callback of rapeseed meal [53][54]. - For cotton, wait to go long at low levels after the callback [55][56][58]. - For sugar, conduct range - trading operations [61][62][63]. - For apples, focus on the opportunity to go long after the callback [64][65][66]. - For live pigs, it is recommended to temporarily wait and see [67][68]. - For eggs, consider short - selling at high levels after the rebound [69][70]. - For corn and starch, it is recommended to temporarily wait and see [71][72]. - For logs, the market has no obvious driving force, and the spot transaction price runs lightly, with weak support for the futures price [73][74]. Summaries According to the Catalog Chemical Products - **Ethylene Glycol**: The previous trading day's main contract fell 0.31%. Supply decreased, port arrivals decreased, inventory decreased slightly, and demand improved, but the lack of cost drivers suppressed the upside space. It is expected to fluctuate and adjust in the short term [29]. - **Staple Fiber**: The previous trading day's 2506 main contract fell 0.58%. The supply load was at a relatively high level, the downstream terminal demand improved slightly, but the cost support was insufficient. It is expected to fluctuate and adjust following the cost end in the short term [30][31]. - **Bottle Chips**: The previous trading day's 2506 main contract fell 0.61%. The raw material cost support remained, the supply load increased, and the downstream demand improved. It is expected to follow the cost end in the future [32]. - **Soda Ash**: The previous trading day's 2509 main contract closed at 1284 yuan/ton, down 1.91%. In the short term, supply decreased due to device maintenance, but in the long - term, the oversupply situation was difficult to alleviate. The price is expected to continue to fluctuate steadily [33][34]. - **Glass**: The previous trading day's 2509 main contract closed at 1018 yuan/ton, up 0.20%. There was no obvious driving force in the actual supply - demand fundamentals. It is expected that the market sentiment will be repaired to some extent in the short term [35]. - **Caustic Soda**: The previous trading day's 2509 main contract closed at 2586 yuan/ton, up 1.77%. Production decreased due to device maintenance, and the demand for alumina increased. It is necessary to focus on the operation of enterprise equipment and the price fluctuation of liquid chlorine [36][37]. - **Pulp**: The previous trading day's 2507 main contract closed at 5390 yuan/ton, up 0.52%. The supply was abundant, the downstream consumption was weak, and it is expected that the market will rebound in the short term [39][40]. - **PTA**: The previous trading day's 2509 main contract fell 0.5%. The supply - demand structure improved, the inventory decreased, but the cost support was insufficient. It is recommended to conduct range trading [27][28]. - **PX**: The previous trading day's 2509 main contract fell 0.3%. The PXN spread continued to repair, the supply load decreased, and it is recommended to participate cautiously [26]. Metals - **Carbonate Lithium**: The previous trading day's main contract closed down 2.27% to 61180 yuan/ton. The supply increased, the demand weakened, and the inventory continued to accumulate. It is expected to run weakly [41]. - **Copper**: The previous trading day's Shanghai copper fluctuated slightly, and the price adjusted in the high - level range. It is recommended to temporarily wait and see for the main contract [42][43]. - **Tin**: The previous trading day's Shanghai tin rose 0.15% to 264390 yuan/ton. There was a game between the current shortage pattern and the loose expectation. It is expected that the price will face greater pressure above [44]. - **Nickel**: The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel fell 0.31% to 123520 yuan/ton. The cost support was strong, but the demand was weak. Pay attention to opportunities after the repair of macro - sentiment [45]. - **Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon**: The previous trading day's industrial silicon main contract closed at 8130 yuan/ton, down 1.87%; the polysilicon main contract closed at 37150 yuan/ton, up 0.51%. The demand was weak, the supply reduction was limited, and it is recommended to focus on the start - up changes in the southwestern region during the wet season [46][47][48]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: The previous trading day's soybean meal main contract fell 0.55% to 2886 yuan/ton, and the soybean oil main contract rose 0.31% to 7776 yuan/ton. The supply of soybeans was expected to be loose, the upward pressure on soybean meal was high, and for soybean oil, consider virtual call option opportunities at the bottom support range [49][50]. - **Palm Oil**: The Malaysian palm oil closed higher. The domestic inventory was accumulating. Consider the opportunity to widen the soybean - palm oil spread [51][52]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The German winter rapeseed planting area increased. The domestic rapeseed inventory decreased, the rapeseed meal inventory increased, and the rapeseed oil inventory decreased. Consider the opportunity to go long after the callback of rapeseed meal [53][54]. - **Cotton**: The previous trading day's domestic Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated. The Sino - US tariff suspension was beneficial to cotton. Wait to go long at low levels after the callback [55][56][58]. - **Sugar**: The previous trading day's domestic Zhengzhou sugar fluctuated. The Brazilian production was low but was expected to increase. The domestic inventory was low and the import volume was low. Conduct range - trading operations [61][62][63]. - **Apples**: The previous trading day's domestic apple futures fluctuated little. The inventory was at a low level in recent years. Focus on the opportunity to go long after the callback [64][65][66]. - **Live Pigs**: The previous trading day's national average price of live pigs was 14.5 yuan/kg, down 0.01. The supply was expected to increase, and the demand was weak. It is recommended to temporarily wait and see [67][68]. - **Eggs**: The previous trading day's main - producing area egg average price was 3.13 yuan/jin, down 0.10; the main - selling area egg average price was 3.26 yuan/jin, down 0.10. The supply was expected to increase, and consider short - selling at high levels after the rebound [69][70]. - **Corn and Starch**: The previous trading day's corn main contract fell 0.55% to 2330 yuan/ton; the corn starch main contract fell 0.78% to 2669 yuan/ton. The supply pressure was still there in the short term, and it is recommended to temporarily wait and see [71][72]. - **Logs**: The previous trading day's 2507 main contract closed at 783.0 yuan/ton, down 0.19%. The supply was expected to increase, the demand was weak, and the price was running weakly [73][74]. Others - **Treasury Bonds**: The previous trading day, treasury bond futures closed up across the board. The macro - economic recovery momentum needed to be strengthened, and it is expected that there will be no trend - like market, with caution advised [5][6][7]. - **Stock Index Futures**: The previous trading day, stock index futures rose and fell differently. The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is optimistic, and considering going long on stock index futures is recommended [8][9]. - **Precious Metals**: The previous trading day, the gold main contract rose 0.54%, and the silver main contract rose 0.40%. The long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and considering going long on gold futures is advised [10][11][12]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fell slightly. The demand for rebar was weak, but there was short - term support in the peak season. Investors can focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds [13]. - **Iron Ore**: The previous trading day, iron ore futures fell slightly. The supply - demand pattern improved, and investors can focus on buying opportunities at low levels [14][15]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures fell significantly. The supply was loose, and the demand was weak. Investors can focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds [16][17]. - **Ferroalloys**: The previous trading day, the manganese silicon main contract fell 0.24%, and the silicon iron main contract fell 0.45%. The demand was weak, and different strategies are recommended for manganese silicon and silicon iron [18][19]. - **Crude Oil**: The previous trading day, INE crude oil fluctuated slightly. The supply was expected to increase, and the price pressure was high. It is recommended to temporarily wait and see for the main contract [20][21][22]. - **Fuel Oil**: The previous trading day, fuel oil fluctuated slightly. The inventory decreased, and the demand recovered. It is recommended to temporarily wait and see for the main contract [23][24][25].

Report Overview - The report focuses on the supply elasticity of the pig industry under the background of high pig weights, analyzing the changes in the industry's cost - weight curve and its impact on supply [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The industry is experiencing changes such as a decrease in the average feed - to - meat ratio and an improvement in the backfat rate of large pigs due to improved breeding sources and cost control. The report analyzes the supply fluctuations caused by the pursuit of optimal breeding profit at different weights [2] - The current high pig weights are influenced by factors such as low feed - to - meat ratios and feed costs. However, in summer, due to the inverted price difference between standard and fat pigs, the optimal breeding profit weight may decrease, leading to supply fluctuations [14][21] Summary by Directory 1. Comparison of Pig Slaughter Weights in Recent Years - In 2025, the average slaughter weight of pigs reached the third - highest level since 2018. Excluding the extreme weight - gain situations in 2020 and 2021, the current weight is the highest in recent years. The average slaughter weight in early May 2025 was about 128.91kg, a year - on - year increase of 3.06% compared to the same period in 2024 [3] - In the first quarter of 2025, the national pig slaughter volume was 194.76 million heads, a year - on - year increase of 0.11%. The average slaughter weight from January to March increased by 2.18% year - on - year. From the slaughter end, the cumulative slaughter volume of national designated slaughtering enterprises from January to March was 90.56 million heads, a year - on - year increase of 8.14%, and the pre - slaughter average weight increased by 1.44% year - on - year [6] 2. Discussion on the Sustainability of Current High Weights - In late April 2025, the mainstream feed - to - meat ratio in the fattening stage was about 2.55 - 2.59 (from weaning to 125kg), the lowest in the same period in the past five years. Combined with the lowest feed cost in the past five years, it supports the calculation of the lowest - cost slaughter weight [11][14] - Under the assumption that the group always uses the optimal breeding profit weight as the slaughter weight guide, the current industry's optimal breeding profit weight is about 120 - 140kg. In summer, due to the inverted price difference between standard and fat pigs, the optimal breeding profit weight may decrease. For example, when the price difference reaches 0.6 yuan/kg, the optimal breeding profit weight may decrease by 3.8 - 4.2kg; when the price difference is 1.5 yuan/kg, it may decrease by about 11kg [19][21] 3. Supply Fluctuations under the Background of High Weights - When the price difference between standard and fat pigs reaches 0.6 yuan/kg, the theoretical average weight decrease is 3.8 - 4.2kg, accounting for about 2.95% - 3.26% of the current slaughter weight. In practice, the actual weight loss is likely not to exceed 4.2kg [22] - During the process of the increasing price difference between standard and fat pigs in summer, enterprises pursuing optimal profit slaughter weights will face weight - reduction adjustments. From mid - to - late May to early June, there may be a short - term impact of increased slaughter volume. After the peak of the price difference in summer, the weight will return to the track of increasing to the optimal profit average weight, and the supply may increase significantly in the near term, with considerable pressure on the supply in the fourth quarter [22][23]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes various futures markets, including bonds, stocks, precious metals, industrial metals, agricultural products, and energy products. It provides market trends, influencing factors, and investment strategies for each market [5][8][11]. - Overall, the report suggests a cautious approach in the current market environment, considering factors such as trade tensions, economic data, and supply - demand dynamics [7][10][13]. Summary by Related Catalogs Bonds - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts fell by 0.10%, 0.05%, 0.06%, and 0.02% respectively [5]. - **Open Market Operations**: On May 16, the central bank conducted 106.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 2.95 billion yuan [5]. - **Outlook**: The external environment is favorable for Treasury bond futures, but yields are relatively low. China's economy shows a stable recovery trend. It is recommended to remain cautious, expecting increased volatility [6][7]. Stocks - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed results. The main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures fell by 0.66%, 1.01%, 0.25%, and 0.15% respectively [8][9]. - **Outlook**: Despite concerns about corporate profit growth and global recession, domestic asset valuations are low, and policies have room for hedging. The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic. Considering the progress of the Sino - US trade agreement, it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [9][10]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main gold contract closed at 751.8 with a 1.62% increase, and the silver main contract closed at 8,101 with a 1.16% increase [11]. - **Outlook**: Global trade and financial environment is complex. Tariffs increase the risk of global recession, and central banks may adopt loose monetary policies. The long - term bullish trend of precious metals continues. It is recommended to consider going long on gold futures [11][12][13]. Industrial Metals - **Steel Products (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil)**: On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures declined slightly. The real - estate downturn suppresses rebar demand, but the peak - season demand may provide short - term support. The valuation is low, and the market is in a weak oscillation. Investors can look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds [14]. - **Iron Ore**: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures pulled back slightly. High iron - water production supports demand, and the decline in imports and inventory is favorable. The valuation is relatively high. Investors can look for buying opportunities at low levels [16]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures fell sharply. Coking coal supply is loose, and coke demand is weak. The market may hit new lows. Investors can look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds [17]. - **Ferroalloys**: Manganese silicon and silicon iron showed different trends. Manganese ore supply may be disrupted, and high inventory pressures the market. For manganese silicon, consider virtual call options at low inventory levels; for silicon iron, short - sellers can consider exiting at the bottom [19][20][21]. Energy Products - **Crude Oil**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil fell sharply. OPEC + production increase and potential consumption decline due to tariffs put pressure on oil prices. It is recommended to wait and see [22][23][24]. - **Fuel Oil**: On the previous trading day, fuel oil rose and then fell. The recovery of global trade demand and inventory decline support prices. It is recommended to wait and see [25][26][27]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: On the previous trading day, soybean meal and soybean oil futures fell. Brazilian soybean harvest is bumper, and domestic supply is expected to be loose. For soybean meal, it is advisable to wait and see; for soybean oil, consider virtual call options at the bottom [56][57]. - **Palm Oil**: Malaysian palm oil prices fell. Exports increased, and domestic inventory is low. Consider the opportunity to expand the soybean - palm oil price spread [58][59]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: Canadian rapeseed prices rose. Chinese imports and inventory vary. Consider buying rapeseed meal after a pull - back [60]. - **Cotton**: Domestic cotton prices oscillated. The Sino - US tariff suspension is favorable, but the fundamentals are weak. Wait for a pull - back to buy [61][62][63]. - **Sugar**: Domestic sugar prices fell slightly. Brazilian production is currently low but expected to increase. Domestic inventory is low, and imports are limited. It is expected to oscillate within a range [64][65][66]. - **Apples**: Apple futures rose and then fell. Some regions may have reduced production, and inventory is low. Consider buying after a pull - back [67][68][69]. - **Hogs**: Hog prices showed a narrow - range adjustment. Group - farm sales may increase, and consumption is in a short - term off - season. It is recommended to wait and see [70][71][72]. - **Eggs**: Egg prices were stable. Egg supply is expected to increase in May. Consider short - selling after a rebound [73][74]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: Corn and corn starch futures fell. Domestic supply pressure exists in the short term, but consumption is recovering. It is recommended to wait and see [75][76][77]. - **Logs**: Log futures fell. Import volume decreased, and prices were weak. The market has no obvious driving force [78][79].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The external environment is favorable for Treasury bond futures, but considering the relatively low current Treasury bond yields and the progress of the China - US trade agreement, it is recommended to remain cautious [6]. - Despite the impact of tariffs, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and considering the progress of the China - US trade agreement, it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [9]. - The long - term bullish trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and pullbacks provide better opportunities for layout. It is recommended to consider going long on gold futures [13]. - For steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coils, investors can focus on opportunities to short on rebounds, with timely profit - taking and attention to position management [15]. - For iron ore, investors can focus on low - level buying opportunities, with timely profit - taking on rebounds and stop - loss if the previous low is broken, while paying attention to position management [17]. - For coking coal and coke, investors can focus on opportunities to short on rebounds, with timely profit - taking and attention to position management [19]. - For ferroalloys, for manganese silicon, consider virtual call options at low levels; for silicon iron, short - sellers at the bottom can consider exiting, and also consider virtual call options at low levels if there are large - scale spot losses [22]. - For crude oil, consider bearish operations on the main contract [25]. - For fuel oil, consider temporarily remaining on the sidelines for the main contract [27]. - For synthetic rubber, it is short - term bullish [30]. - For natural rubber, it is expected to fluctuate weakly [32]. - For PVC, it is expected to have a short - term rebound with limited upside [35]. - For urea, it is expected to fluctuate strongly [36]. - For PX, be cautious about the upside space in the short term and participate with caution, paying attention to changes in crude oil prices and macro - policies [38]. - For PTA, treat it cautiously and bullishly in the short term, and consider range - bound operations at low levels, paying attention to risk control [39]. - For ethylene glycol, it is expected to fluctuate and adjust in the short term, be cautious about the upside space, and pay attention to port inventory and macro - policy changes [41]. - For staple fiber, follow the cost side to fluctuate and adjust in the short term, participate with caution, and pay attention to risk control [42]. - For bottle chips, it is expected to follow the cost side in the future, participate with caution, and pay attention to cost price changes [43]. - For soda ash, the loose pattern remains. In the short term, due to concentrated device maintenance in May, there may be short - term adjustments in the market, and short - sellers at low levels should adjust their positions [44]. - For glass, there is no obvious driving force in the actual supply - demand fundamentals. Although there may be some repair in market sentiment in the short term, the actual repair degree remains to be seen [45]. - For caustic soda, pay attention to the operation of enterprise devices and the fluctuation of liquid chlorine prices in the future [48]. - For pulp, it is expected to have a short - term rebound in the market, and in the future, pay attention to whether international pulp mills initiate substantial production cuts and the implementation rhythm of domestic consumption stimulus policies [52]. - For lithium carbonate, it is expected to operate weakly [53]. - For copper, consider temporarily remaining on the sidelines for the main contract of Shanghai copper [55]. - For tin, it is expected that the upward pressure on tin prices is relatively large, and it should be viewed with a bearish and fluctuating perspective [56]. - For nickel, pay attention to opportunities after the repair of macro - sentiment [57]. - For industrial silicon/polysilicon, maintain a bearish judgment overall and pay attention to the start - up changes in the southwestern region during the wet season [58]. - For soybean oil and soybean meal, remain on the sidelines for soybean meal; for soybean oil, consider virtual call options at the bottom support range [61]. - For palm oil, consider the opportunity to expand the spread between soybean oil and palm oil [64]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, consider the opportunity to go long on rapeseed meal after a pullback [66]. - For cotton, pay attention to the opportunity to go long at low levels [70]. - For sugar, it is expected to operate in a range - bound manner, and use range - bound operations as a strategy [73]. - For apples, pay attention to the opportunity to go long after a pullback [77]. - For live pigs, consider temporarily remaining on the sidelines [79]. - For eggs, consider taking profits and then remaining on the sidelines [83]. - For corn and starch, remain on the sidelines for now [86]. - For logs, the fundamentals have no obvious driving force, and the spot transaction price in the market is weak, providing weak support for the market [88]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Treasury Bonds - On the previous trading day, most Treasury bond futures closed higher. The central bank conducted 64.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 219.1 billion yuan on the same day. The issuance of special ultra - long - term Treasury bonds and local government special bonds is supported. The external environment is favorable for Treasury bond futures, but it is recommended to remain cautious [5][6]. Stock Index Futures - On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The domestic economy is stable, but tariffs disrupt the economic recovery rhythm. However, due to low domestic asset valuations and policy hedging space, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is optimistic, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [8][9]. Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, gold and silver futures prices declined. The global economic recession risk increases under the influence of tariffs, and the long - term bullish trend of precious metals is expected to continue. It is recommended to consider going long on gold futures [11][13]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fluctuated. The real estate downturn suppresses rebar prices, but the peak - season demand provides short - term support. The valuation is low, and there are signs of a rebound. Investors can short on rebounds [15]. Iron Ore - On the previous trading day, iron ore futures rose slightly. The increase in demand and the decrease in supply and inventory support the price. The valuation is relatively high. Investors can buy at low levels [17]. Coking Coal and Coke - On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures fluctuated. The supply of coking coal is loose, and the demand for coke is weak. There are signs of a stop - fall. Investors can short on rebounds [19]. Ferroalloys - On the previous trading day, manganese silicon rose slightly, and silicon iron fell slightly. The demand for ferroalloys is weak, and the supply is high. For manganese silicon, consider virtual call options at low levels; for silicon iron, short - sellers at the bottom can consider exiting [22]. Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, INE crude oil fell sharply. The increase in US crude oil inventories, Iran's willingness to reach an agreement, and OPEC's production increase put pressure on oil prices. Consider bearish operations [23][24]. Fuel Oil - On the previous trading day, fuel oil fell sharply following crude oil. The possible relaxation of US sanctions on Russia is bearish for high - sulfur fuel oil, while the recovery of global trade demand is favorable. Consider remaining on the sidelines [26]. Synthetic Rubber - On the previous trading day, synthetic rubber fell slightly. The supply pressure persists, but the demand and cost sides improve. It is short - term bullish with limited upside [28]. Natural Rubber - On the previous trading day, natural rubber futures fell. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand may improve. It is expected to fluctuate weakly [31]. PVC - On the previous trading day, PVC futures rose. The supply is increasing, and the export demand is good. It is expected to have a short - term rebound with limited upside [33]. Urea - On the previous trading day, urea futures rose. The domestic export policy has adjusted, and the agricultural demand is about to start. It is expected to fluctuate strongly [36]. PX - On the previous trading day, PX futures fell. The PXN and PX - MX spreads are recovering, and the load is increasing. The short - term upside space is limited. Be cautious and pay attention to crude oil and policies [37]. PTA - On the previous trading day, PTA futures fell. The supply and demand structure has improved, and the inventory is decreasing. Treat it cautiously and bullishly in the short term and consider range - bound operations at low levels [39]. Ethylene Glycol - On the previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures fell. The supply increase suppresses the price, but the inventory is decreasing, and the demand is improving. It is expected to fluctuate and adjust in the short term [40]. Staple Fiber - On the previous trading day, staple fiber futures fell. The downstream demand is slightly improving, and it follows the cost side to fluctuate and adjust in the short term. Participate with caution [42]. Bottle Chips - On the previous trading day, bottle chip futures fell. The raw material cost provides support, and the supply and demand fundamentals have improved. It is expected to follow the cost side [43]. Soda Ash - On the previous trading day, soda ash futures rose. Some devices are under maintenance, and the raw material prices are falling. The supply is loose, and there may be short - term adjustments [44]. Glass - On the previous trading day, glass futures fell slightly. The production line is at a low level, and the market is weak. There is no obvious driving force in the fundamentals, and the market sentiment may be repaired in the short term [45]. Caustic Soda - On the previous trading day, caustic soda futures rose. Some devices are under maintenance, and the supply is decreasing. The demand is limited, and the price may be affected by alumina and liquid chlorine [47]. Pulp - On the previous trading day, pulp futures rose. The tariff issue gives some confidence, but the supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. It is expected to have a short - term rebound [50]. Lithium Carbonate - On the previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures fell. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. It is expected to operate weakly [53]. Copper - On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper fluctuated downward. The Sino - US talks have achieved results, but the copper tariff issue remains uncertain. Consider remaining on the sidelines [54]. Tin - On the previous trading day, Shanghai tin rose slightly. The supply may increase, but the demand is good. The upward pressure on prices is large, and it is expected to fluctuate bearishly [56]. Nickel - On the previous trading day, Shanghai nickel rose slightly. The cost provides support, but the demand is weak. Pay attention to opportunities after the repair of macro - sentiment [57]. Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon - On the previous trading day, industrial silicon rose slightly, and polysilicon fell slightly. The demand is weak, and the supply reduction is limited. It is expected to be bearish overall [58]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - On the previous trading day, soybean meal rose, and soybean oil fell. The US biodiesel policy affects the market. The supply of soybeans is expected to be loose. Remain on the sidelines for soybean meal; for soybean oil, consider virtual call options at the bottom [60]. Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil fell, but strong export data limited the decline. The domestic inventory is low, and the consumption is increasing. Consider the opportunity to expand the spread between soybean oil and palm oil [62]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed fell. The 45Z biofuel tax credit extension is bearish for rapeseed oil. The domestic inventory of rapeseed is low, and the inventory of rapeseed meal is high. Consider the opportunity to go long on rapeseed meal after a pullback [65]. Cotton - Domestic cotton fluctuated, and external cotton fell. The USDA report is bearish, but the Sino - US talks are favorable. The downstream demand is weak. Pay attention to the opportunity to go long at low levels [67]. Sugar - Domestic sugar fell slightly, and external sugar fell 2%. The production in Brazil and India is lower than expected. The domestic inventory is neutral, and the import is low. It is expected to operate in a range - bound manner [71]. Apples - Apple futures fluctuated. There are signs of production reduction in some areas, and the inventory is low. The spot price is expected to be strong. Pay attention to the opportunity to go long after a pullback [74]. Live Pigs - The price of live pigs fell. The supply may increase after the holiday, and the consumption is in a short - term off - season. Consider temporarily remaining on the sidelines [78]. Eggs - The price of eggs remained stable. The supply is increasing, and the cost is decreasing. The price may be supported during the Dragon Boat Festival. Consider taking profits and then remaining on the sidelines [80]. Corn and Starch - Corn and corn starch futures fell. The supply pressure remains, and the demand is weak. The market is expected to be balanced in the long term. Remain on the sidelines for now [84]. Logs - Log futures fell. The import volume decreased in April, and the spot price showed regional differentiation. The fundamentals have no obvious driving force [87].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is affected by factors such as tariffs, global economic recession risks, and policy adjustments. Different sectors show various trends and investment opportunities. For example, the report is optimistic about the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets, believes in the long - term bullish trend of precious metals, and has different views on other commodities based on their supply - demand fundamentals and market conditions [6][9][11]. Summary by Related Catalogs Bonds - **Treasury Bonds**: The previous trading day saw a full - line decline in treasury bond futures. The central bank conducted 920 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on May 14, with a net withdrawal of 103.5 billion yuan. The current macro data is stable, but tariffs may lead to a slowdown in the Chinese economy. The external environment is favorable for treasury bond futures, but yields are relatively low. It is recommended to be cautious as the Chinese economy shows a stable recovery trend [5][6]. Stocks - **Stock Index Futures**: The previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The domestic economy is stable, but tariffs disrupt the economic recovery rhythm. However, due to low domestic asset valuations and policy hedging space, the report is optimistic about the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets and suggests considering going long on stock index futures [8][9]. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The previous trading day, gold and silver futures prices declined. The complex global trade and financial environment, along with the increasing risk of global economic recession due to tariffs, may lead to passive monetary policy easing in various countries, which is expected to drive up the price of gold. It is recommended to go long on gold futures on dips [11]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The previous trading day, Shanghai copper rose significantly. The progress of the Sino - US Geneva economic and trade statement and the lower - than - expected CPI growth in the US have boosted market sentiment. It is expected that copper prices will rise, and it is recommended to go long on the Shanghai copper main contract [51]. - **Tin**: The previous trading day, Shanghai tin rose. The复产 of mines in Congo (Kinshasa) and Myanmar increases the supply expectation, while the current supply is tight. It is expected that tin prices will face upward pressure and show a bearish - oscillating trend [53]. - **Nickel**: The previous trading day, Shanghai nickel rose. The tightening of the ore supply policy in Indonesia and the Philippines provides cost support, but the downstream is in a state of over - supply. It is necessary to pay attention to opportunities after the repair of macro - sentiment [54]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: The previous trading day, INE crude oil oscillated higher. OPEC+ will increase production from May to June, and the market is worried about oversupply. After the short - term rise, crude oil may face a correction. It is recommended to take a short position on the crude oil main contract [21][22]. - **Fuel Oil**: The previous trading day, fuel oil followed crude oil and oscillated upward. The possible relaxation of US sanctions on Russia is negative for high - sulfur fuel oil, while the signing of tariff agreements is beneficial for the recovery of fuel oil prices. It is recommended to wait and see for the fuel oil main contract [24][25]. Chemicals - **Synthetic Rubber**: The previous trading day, the synthetic rubber main contract rose. Supply pressure persists, but the demand side is expected to improve due to the slowdown of tariffs, and the cost side has rebounded significantly. It is expected to be short - term bullish [27]. - **Natural Rubber**: The previous trading day, natural rubber futures rose. The global supply is expected to increase, and the demand side may improve due to tariff changes. It is expected to show a weak - oscillating trend [29]. - **PVC**: The previous trading day, the PVC main contract rose. Supply is gradually recovering, and demand is weakly recovering. The market is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend [31]. - **Urea**: The previous trading day, the urea main contract fell. The adjustment of domestic export policies and the upcoming agricultural demand may lead to a bullish - oscillating trend. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to policy changes and the spread between domestic and foreign markets [34]. - **PX**: The previous trading day, the PX main contract rose. The PXN spread is continuously repairing, and the supply and demand situation is improving. With the upward repair of crude oil prices and positive macro - sentiment, PX is expected to oscillate bullishly. It is recommended to participate on dips [36]. - **PTA**: The previous trading day, the PTA main contract rose. The supply side has decreased, the demand side has increased, and the cost side is supported. It is expected that PTA prices will continue to repair upward. It is recommended to operate in the low - range [37]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The previous trading day, the ethylene glycol main contract rose. The supply increase is not obvious, the port inventory is decreasing, and the demand side is improving. It is expected that ethylene glycol prices will continue to rise. It is recommended to participate on dips [40]. - **Short - Fiber**: The previous trading day, the short - fiber main contract rose. The downstream terminal demand has slightly recovered, and the supply - demand fundamentals have improved. It is expected to follow the cost side and oscillate bullishly. It is recommended to go long on dips [41]. - **Bottle - Chip**: The previous trading day, the bottle - chip main contract rose. The raw material price is rising, and the supply - demand fundamentals have improved. It is expected to follow the cost side and rebound [43]. - **Soda Ash**: The previous trading day, the soda ash main contract rose. The raw material prices are falling, the production is decreasing, and the inventory is increasing. The market is in a loose pattern, but short - term adjustments may occur due to device maintenance. Short - position holders at low levels should adjust their positions [44]. - **Glass**: The previous trading day, the glass main contract rose. The production line is at a low level, and the market is weak. There is no obvious driving force in the supply - demand fundamentals. The market sentiment may be repaired in the short - term, but the actual repair degree needs to be observed [45]. - **Caustic Soda**: The previous trading day, the caustic soda main contract rose. The demand from the alumina and non - alumina downstream is limited, but some devices will enter the maintenance period in May, which may provide some driving force. It is necessary to pay attention to device operation and liquid chlorine price fluctuations [46]. - **Pulp**: The previous trading day, the pulp main contract rose. The Sino - US tariff breakthrough has given some confidence to the pulp market, but the supply - demand situation is still loose. It is expected that the market will rebound in the short - term, and it is necessary to pay attention to international pulp mill production cuts and domestic consumption stimulus policies [48]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The previous trading day, the lithium carbonate main contract rose. The supply side is difficult to further reduce production, the demand side is weakening, and the inventory is increasing. It is expected to show a bearish trend [50]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: The previous trading day, soybean meal and soybean oil futures rose. The soybean supply is expected to be loose, and the upward pressure on soybean meal is high. It is recommended to wait and see. The cost support for soybean oil at the bottom is increasing, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of out - of - the - money call options [58]. - **Palm Oil**: The previous trading day, Malaysian palm oil rose. The inventory in Malaysia has increased, and Indonesia has raised the export tax. The domestic palm oil inventory is at a low level. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of expanding the spread between soybean oil and palm oil [60]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The previous trading day, rapeseed futures showed mixed performance. The 45Z bio - fuel tax credit extension is negative for rapeseed oil. The domestic rapeseed inventory is at a low level, and rapeseed meal inventory is at a high level. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on rapeseed meal after a correction [62]. - **Cotton**: The previous trading day, domestic cotton futures rose slightly. The US Department of Agriculture's monthly supply - demand report is negative, but the Sino - US negotiation is progressing smoothly, which is beneficial for cotton. The domestic downstream demand is weak, but there may be a short - term support. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips [64]. - **Sugar**: The previous trading day, domestic sugar futures rose slightly. The production in Brazil and India is lower than expected, and the domestic inventory is at a medium level with low imports. It is expected to oscillate within a range. It is recommended to operate within the range [68]. - **Apple**: The previous trading day, domestic apple futures fell slightly. There is a production reduction in some apple - producing areas, and the current inventory is at a low level. It is expected that the spot price will be strong in the future. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long after a correction [71]. - **Live Pigs**: The previous trading day, the live pig futures main contract rose. The supply is expected to increase after the holiday, and the consumption is in a short - term off - season. It is expected that the pig price will first weaken and then strengthen. It is recommended to wait and see [73]. - **Eggs**: The previous trading day, the egg futures main contract fell slightly. The egg supply is expected to increase in May, and the pre - holiday stocking may provide some support. It is recommended to take profits and then wait and see [77]. - **Corn and Starch**: The previous trading day, the corn main contract rose, and the corn starch main contract fell. The domestic corn supply - demand is approaching balance, but there is short - term supply pressure. Corn starch has weak production and demand and high inventory. It is recommended to wait and see [79]. - **Logs**: The previous trading day, the log futures main contract rose. The import volume of logs and sawn timber has decreased, and the spot price shows regional differentiation. The market has no obvious driving force, and the spot price has a weak support for the futures [82].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The report analyzes multiple futures markets, including bonds, stocks, precious metals, and various commodities. It suggests different investment strategies based on market conditions, such as being cautious with bonds, considering long positions in stock index futures, and taking long positions in gold futures [6][10][12]. Summary by Category Bonds - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, most bond futures closed higher. The 30 - year, 10 - year, and 2 - year contracts rose, while the 5 - year contract fell slightly. The central bank conducted 43 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 43 billion yuan [5]. - **Analysis**: The external environment is favorable for bond futures, but yields are relatively low. China's economy shows a stable recovery trend, and there is room for domestic demand policies. It is recommended to be cautious, expecting increased volatility [6][7]. Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed results, with the CSI 300 and SSE 50 rising slightly, while the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 fell [8]. - **Analysis**: Although tariffs disrupt the domestic economic recovery rhythm, domestic asset valuations are low, and there is policy - hedging space. The report is optimistic about the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets and suggests considering long positions in stock index futures [10][11]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, gold and silver futures prices declined. The eurozone's May ZEW economic sentiment index improved [12]. - **Analysis**: The complex global trade and financial environment, potential central bank policy easing, and trade frictions are expected to drive up gold prices. The long - term bullish trend of precious metals continues, and it is recommended to take long positions in gold futures on dips [12][13]. Steel Products (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil) - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rebounded slightly. Spot prices are at certain levels [14]. - **Analysis**: The real estate downturn suppresses rebar demand, but the current peak demand season may support prices. The valuation is low, and there are signs of a bottom. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds and manage positions carefully [14][15]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures rose slightly. Spot prices are at certain levels [16]. - **Analysis**: The increase in iron ore demand and the decrease in supply and inventory support prices. The valuation is relatively high. It is recommended to look for long - buying opportunities at low levels, take profits on rebounds, and set stop - losses if the previous low is broken [16]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures fell slightly [18]. - **Analysis**: The supply of coking coal is loose, and the demand for coke from steel mills is weakening. Prices are expected to remain weak in the short term. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds and manage positions carefully [18][19]. Ferroalloys - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, manganese silicon and silicon iron futures fell. Spot prices also showed some changes [21]. - **Analysis**: The demand for ferroalloys is weak, and the supply is relatively high. There are concerns about manganese ore supply disruptions. It is recommended to consider long positions in out - of - the - money call options for manganese silicon and exit short positions for silicon iron at the bottom [21][22]. Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil opened high and closed low. There are various data and news in the energy market [23][24]. - **Analysis**: OPEC+ is increasing production, and there are concerns about oversupply. However, the reduction of Sino - US tariffs is beneficial to crude oil. It is recommended to wait and see for the main crude oil contract [25][26]. Fuel Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, fuel oil followed crude oil, opening high and then fluctuating lower. Singapore's fuel oil inventory decreased [27]. - **Analysis**: The possibility of relaxed US sanctions on Russia is negative for high - sulfur fuel oil, but tariff agreements are beneficial for demand recovery. It is recommended to take long positions in the main fuel oil contract [27][28][29]. Synthetic Rubber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures rose. Spot prices increased, and the basis was stable [30]. - **Analysis**: Supply pressure persists, but demand is expected to improve due to tariff expectations, and costs are rebounding. It is expected to be short - term bullish [30][31]. Natural Rubber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, natural rubber futures rose. Spot prices increased, and the basis was stable [32]. - **Analysis**: The supply is expected to increase, but demand may improve due to tariff changes. It is expected to fluctuate weakly [32][34]. PVC - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, PVC futures rose. Spot prices increased slightly, and the basis was stable [35]. - **Analysis**: Supply is gradually recovering, and demand is weakly recovering. The market is expected to fluctuate weakly at the bottom [35][37]. Urea - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, urea futures rose. Spot prices increased, and the basis was stable [38]. - **Analysis**: The adjustment of export policies and the upcoming agricultural demand may lead to a bullish trend. It is necessary to continue to monitor policy changes and price differences between domestic and foreign markets [38][40]. PX - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, PX futures rose. The PXN spread increased [41]. - **Analysis**: The short - term upward repair of crude oil prices and positive sentiment are expected to drive PX prices to rebound. It is recommended to participate on dips and pay attention to crude oil price changes and macro - policies [41]. PTA - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, PTA futures rose. Supply decreased, and demand increased [42]. - **Analysis**: The improvement in the short - term supply - demand structure and the expected improvement in costs are expected to drive PTA prices to rebound. It is recommended to operate in the low - price range and control risks [42]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures rose. Supply increased slightly, and inventory decreased [43]. - **Analysis**: The restart of coal - based ethylene glycol plants is slower than expected, and imports are reduced. It is expected that prices will have upward space. It is recommended to participate on dips and pay attention to inventory and policies [43]. Short - Fiber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, short - fiber futures rose. Demand improved slightly, and costs increased [44]. - **Analysis**: The improvement in the supply - demand fundamentals and the support from costs are expected to drive short - fiber prices to adjust bullishly. It is recommended to take short - term long positions on dips and control risks [44]. Bottle Chips - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, bottle - chip futures rose. Costs increased, and demand improved [45]. - **Analysis**: The increase in raw material prices and the improvement in supply - demand fundamentals are expected to drive bottle - chip prices to rebound. It is necessary to pay attention to cost price changes [45]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, soda ash futures fell. Production decreased, and inventory increased [46]. - **Analysis**: The market remains in a loose pattern, but the concentrated maintenance in May may lead to short - term adjustments. Short - sellers at low levels should adjust their positions [46]. Glass - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, glass futures fell. There are changes in production lines and market prices [47][48][49]. - **Analysis**: There is no obvious driving force in the supply - demand fundamentals. The tariff adjustment and the expected policy support may have an impact on market sentiment, but the actual repair degree needs to be observed [49]. Caustic Soda - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, caustic soda futures rose. Production increased slightly, and inventory was at a neutral level [50]. - **Analysis**: The demand for caustic soda is limited, but the maintenance of some plants in May may provide some driving force. It is necessary to focus on plant operations and liquid chlorine prices [50][51]. Pulp - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, pulp futures rose. The tariff negotiation result gave some confidence, but the supply - demand situation is still loose [52]. - **Analysis**: The supply is high, and the demand is weak. The short - term rebound may be due to tariff news. It is necessary to pay attention to international production cuts and domestic consumption - stimulating policies [52][53]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures fell. The supply - demand situation is in surplus [54][55]. - **Analysis**: The decline in ore prices weakens the cost support, and the demand slows down. It is expected to run weakly [55]. Copper - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper fluctuated slightly. Spot prices decreased slightly [56]. - **Analysis**: The Comex copper is weak, and the 60 - day moving average suppresses prices. The Sino - US negotiation results may lead to price fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see [56][57]. Tin - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai tin rose. There are changes in supply and demand [58][59]. - **Analysis**: The contradiction between the current shortage and the expected supply increase is expected to lead to a bearish - fluctuating trend [59]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai nickel rose. The supply and demand situation is complex [60]. - **Analysis**: The cost support is strong, but the demand is weak. It is necessary to pay attention to the opportunity after the repair of macro - sentiment [60]. Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, industrial silicon futures fell, and polysilicon futures rose. Spot prices of polysilicon decreased [61]. - **Analysis**: The demand in the industry chain is weak, and the supply reduction is limited. It is in the capacity - clearing cycle, and it is recommended to maintain a bearish view and pay attention to the start - up changes in the southwest region during the wet season [61][62]. Soybean Oil/Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, soybean meal futures fell, and soybean oil futures rose. Spot prices also changed [63]. - **Analysis**: The supply of soybeans is expected to be loose, and the upward pressure on soybean meal is high. It is recommended to wait and see. The cost support for soybean oil at the bottom is strong, and it is recommended to consider out - of - the - money call options [63][64]. Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: Malaysian palm oil prices rose, but the increase was limited by inventory. Domestic palm oil imports and consumption data are available [65][66]. - **Analysis**: It is recommended to consider the opportunity to expand the spread between soybean oil and palm oil [67]. Rapeseed Meal/Rapeseed Oil - **Market Performance**: Canadian rapeseed prices rose. There are changes in domestic supply and demand and inventory [68]. - **Analysis**: It is recommended to consider long positions in rapeseed meal after a pull - back [68][69]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: Domestic cotton futures fluctuated, and external cotton futures fell. There are various data and news [70][71]. - **Analysis**: The end of the peak season weakens demand, but the Sino - US negotiation results may support prices. It is recommended to operate with a light position and pay attention to tariff policies [70][72][73]. Sugar - **Market Performance**: Domestic sugar futures fluctuated at a low level, and external sugar futures rose. There are production and inventory data from Brazil and India [75]. - **Analysis**: The global trade friction affects demand. It is expected to run in a range, and it is recommended to operate within the range [75][76][77]. Apple - **Market Performance**: Domestic apple futures fell slightly. There are signs of production reduction, and inventory is at a low level [78][79]. - **Analysis**: The low inventory and the expected production reduction may lead to a strong spot price. It is recommended to consider long positions after a pull - back [79][80]. Live Pigs - **Market Performance**: The national average price of live pigs decreased slightly. There are data on supply, demand, and inventory [81]. - **Analysis**: The supply is expected to increase after the holiday, and the demand is in a short - term off - season. It is recommended to wait and see [81][82]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: Egg prices rose. There are data on production, cost, and inventory [83]. - **Analysis**: The supply is expected to increase in May, and the pre - holiday stocking may support prices. It is recommended to take profits and then wait and see [83][84]. Corn/Starch - **Market Performance**: Corn and corn starch futures fell. There are data on supply, demand, and inventory [85][86][87]. - **Analysis**: The supply pressure of corn is still there, but the bottom support is strong. Corn starch follows the corn market. It is recommended to wait and see [87]. Logs - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, log futures fell. Import data and spot price changes are available [88]. - **Analysis**: There is no obvious driving force in the fundamentals, and the spot market has weak support for the futures price [88][89].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes various futures markets, including bonds, stocks, precious metals, and commodities. It suggests that while the external environment is favorable for bond futures, caution is advised due to the relatively low bond yields and the potential impact of tariffs. For stock index futures, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and considering going long on stock index futures is recommended. In the precious metals market, the long - term bullish trend of gold is expected to continue, and going long on gold futures on dips is advised. For commodities, different strategies are proposed based on the supply - demand, valuation, and technical analysis of each product [6][10][12]. Summary by Related Catalogs Bonds - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, bond futures closed significantly lower. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts fell by 1.31%, 0.46%, 0.2%, and 0.08% respectively. The central bank conducted 43 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net investment of 43 billion yuan [5]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The external environment is favorable for bond futures, but the current bond yields are relatively low. The Chinese economy shows a stable recovery trend, and the Sino - US trade agreement has made progress. It is expected that the volatility will increase, and caution should be maintained [6][7]. Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed results. The main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures rose by 1.23%, 0.77%, 1.48%, and 1.56% respectively [8][9]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The Sino - US economic and trade talks are a positive sign, but the structural contradictions and deep - seated differences between the two countries still exist. The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and considering going long on stock index futures is recommended [9][10][11]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main gold contract closed at 772.28 with a decline of 2.05%, and the main silver contract closed at 8,232 with an increase of 0.78% [12]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The complex global trade and financial environment, the increased risk of global economic recession due to tariff disturbances, and the potential passive easing of monetary policies around the world are expected to drive up the price of gold. The long - term bullish trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and going long on gold futures on dips is advised [12][13]. Steel Products (including Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Coking Coal, Coke, and Ferroalloys) - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rebounded significantly. The spot prices of Tangshan billet, Shanghai rebar, and Shanghai hot - rolled coil are 2,940 yuan/ton, 3,040 - 3,170 yuan/ton, and 3,230 - 3,250 yuan/ton respectively [14]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The downward trend of the real estate industry suppresses the price of rebar, but the peak demand season may provide short - term support. The valuation of steel prices is low, and there are signs of a stop - fall. Investors can focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds, take profits in time, and pay attention to position management [14]. - **Iron Ore** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures rose significantly. The spot prices of PB powder and Super Special powder are 760 yuan/ton and 626 yuan/ton respectively [16]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The increase in iron ore demand and the decrease in supply and inventory support the price. The valuation of iron ore has decreased but is still the highest among black - series products. Investors can focus on buying opportunities at low levels, take profits on rebounds, and stop losses if the previous low is broken [16][17]. - **Coking Coal and Coke** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures rebounded slightly [19]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The supply of coking coal is loose, and the transaction atmosphere is weak. The demand for coke from some steel mills has decreased, and the second - round price increase is difficult to implement. The prices of coking coal and coke futures have reached new lows, and short - selling opportunities on rebounds can be considered [19]. - **Ferroalloys** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main manganese - silicon contract rose 1.80% to 5,866 yuan/ton, and the main silicon - iron contract rose 1.55% to 5,636 yuan/ton [21]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The demand for ferroalloys is weak, and the supply is still high. The inventory of manganese - silicon and silicon - iron is high. For manganese - silicon, call option opportunities at low levels can be considered; for silicon - iron, short - sellers can consider exiting at the bottom [23]. Energy (including Crude Oil, Fuel Oil) - **Crude Oil** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil rose significantly due to the cooling of Sino - US tariff tensions [24]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: OPEC+ will increase production in May - June, and the market is worried about oversupply. The reduction of Sino - US tariffs is beneficial to crude oil, but $65 per barrel of Brent crude is an important resistance level. It is recommended to wait and see for the main crude oil contract [25][26]. - **Fuel Oil** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, fuel oil followed crude oil and rose significantly. Singapore's land - based fuel oil inventory has dropped to a seven - week low [27]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The possible relaxation of US sanctions on Russia is negative for high - sulfur fuel oil, while the reduction of tariff friction and the decrease in inventory are positive. A long - biased operation for the main fuel oil contract is recommended [27][28]. Rubber (including Synthetic Rubber, Natural Rubber) - **Synthetic Rubber** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main synthetic rubber contract rose 3.28%, and the mainstream price in Shandong was raised to 11,750 yuan/ton [29]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The supply pressure continues, but the demand is expected to improve due to the slowdown of tariffs, and the cost has rebounded. It is short - term bullish, but the upward space is limited [29][30][31]. - **Natural Rubber** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main natural rubber contract rose 2.18%, and the 20 - rubber main contract rose 2.40%. The Shanghai spot price was raised to 14,900 yuan/ton [32]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The global supply is expected to increase, and the demand may improve due to tariff changes. It is expected to fluctuate strongly. However, considering the overall situation, it may show a weak - side fluctuation [32][33]. Chemical Products (including PVC, Urea, PX, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short - Fiber, Bottle Chip, Soda Ash, Glass, Caustic Soda, Pulp, Lithium Carbonate) - **PVC** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main PVC contract rose 0.27%, and the spot price remained stable [34]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The supply is gradually recovering, and the demand is weakly recovering. The market is expected to fluctuate weakly at the bottom [34][35][37]. - **Urea** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main urea contract fell 0.26%, and the price in Shandong Linyi was raised to 1,970 yuan/ton [38]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The domestic export policy has been adjusted, and the subsequent agricultural demand will start. It is expected to fluctuate strongly. Attention should be paid to policy changes and the price difference between domestic and foreign markets [38][39]. - **PX** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PX2509 main contract rose 3.23%, and the PXN spread rose to $210/ton [40]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The short - term crude oil price is expected to rebound, and PX is expected to follow the cost - side rebound. Buying on dips is recommended, and attention should be paid to the changes in crude oil prices and macro - policies [40][41]. - **PTA** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PTA2509 main contract rose 3.11% [42]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The short - term supply - demand structure of PTA has improved, and the cost is expected to turn better. The price may have upward repair space. Buying in the low - range is recommended, and attention should be paid to risk control [42]. - **Ethylene Glycol** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main ethylene glycol contract rose 1.97% [43]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The restart of coal - based ethylene glycol plants is less than expected, the supply increase is not obvious, and the inventory is slightly decreasing. The price is expected to rise. Buying on dips is recommended, and attention should be paid to port inventory and macro - policies [43][44]. - **Short - Fiber** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the short - fiber 2506 main contract rose 2.71% [45]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The downstream terminal demand has slightly recovered, and the supply - demand fundamentals have improved. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly following the cost - side. Short - term long positions on dips are recommended, and attention should be paid to risk control [45]. - **Bottle Chip** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the bottle - chip 2506 main contract rose 2.12% [46]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The raw material price has strengthened, and the supply - demand fundamentals of bottle chips have improved. The price is expected to rebound following the cost - side. Attention should be paid to the changes in raw material prices [46]. - **Soda Ash** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of soda ash closed at 1,318 yuan/ton, up 0.15% [47]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The supply of soda ash remains high, and the prices of raw materials are falling. The inventory has increased slightly. In May, there will be concentrated device maintenance, which may cause short - term market adjustments. Short - sellers at low levels should adjust their positions [47][48]. - **Glass** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of glass closed at 1,045 yuan/ton, down 0.29% [49]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The production line is at a low level, and the actual supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious driving force. The tariff adjustment may affect downstream products, and the market sentiment may be repaired in the short term, but the actual repair degree remains to be seen [49][50]. - **Caustic Soda** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of caustic soda closed at 2,545 yuan/ton, up 2.58% [51]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The demand for caustic soda from alumina and non - aluminum downstream industries is limited. Some plants will enter the maintenance period in May, which may have a certain driving force. Attention should be paid to the operation of enterprise plants and the fluctuation of liquid chlorine prices [52][53]. - **Pulp** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2507 contract of pulp closed at 5,256 yuan/ton, up 1.43% [54]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The domestic and international supply of pulp is abundant, but the downstream consumption is weak. The market is in a weak pattern. Attention should be paid to whether international pulp mills start substantial production cuts and the implementation rhythm of domestic consumption stimulus policies [55][56]. - **Lithium Carbonate** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main lithium carbonate contract closed at 64,040 yuan/ton, up 0.35% [57]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The supply of lithium carbonate is still in excess, the demand is weakening, and the inventory is increasing. It is expected to run weakly [57]. Metals (including Copper, Tin, Nickel, Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon) - **Copper** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper fluctuated and rose, closing above the 60 - day moving average. The average price of 1 electrolytic copper was 78,260 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton [58]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: Comex copper is weak, and the 60 - day line of Shanghai copper has been suppressing the price. The Sino - US talks have achieved important results, and the copper tariff may not be implemented. The copper price is expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to wait and see for the main Shanghai copper contract [58][59]. - **Tin** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai tin rose 1.33% to 264,570 yuan/ton [60]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The supply of tin is expected to increase, but the current supply is tight. The downstream demand has phased support, and the inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to face upward pressure and fluctuate weakly [61]. - **Nickel** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai nickel fell 1.26% to 124,180 yuan/ton [62]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The supply of nickel ore is tightened, and the cost is supported. However, the downstream acceptance of high prices is not high, and the demand may weaken in the off - season. The market is expected to remain in a state of oversupply. It is recommended to wait and see cautiously [62]. - **Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main industrial silicon contract closed at 8,320 yuan/ton, up 0.24%, and the main polysilicon contract closed at 38,450 yuan/ton, up 2.49% [63]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The demand for the industrial silicon/polysilicon industry chain is weak, and the supply reduction is limited. The price is affected by delivery factors and production - cut news, and the fluctuation is intensified. It is still in the capacity - clearing cycle, and a bearish view is maintained. Attention should be paid to the start - up changes in the southwest region during the wet season [63][64]. Agricultural Products (including Soybean Oil, Soybean Meal, Palm Oil, Rapeseed Meal, Rapeseed Oil, Cotton, Sugar, Apple, Live Pigs, Eggs, Corn & Starch, Logs) - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main soybean meal contract fell 0.17% to 2,908 yuan/ton, and the main soybean oil contract rose 0.03% to 7,814 yuan/ton [65]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The Sino - US trade friction has eased, and the supply of soybeans is expected to be loose. The upward pressure on the main soybean meal contract is large, and it is recommended to wait and see. The cost support for soybean oil at the bottom is enhanced, and call option opportunities at the bottom support range can be considered [65][66]. - **Palm Oil** - **Market Performance**: The Malaysian palm oil market was closed. The export volume of Malaysian palm oil products from May 1 - 10, 2025, increased by 1.9% year - on - year [67]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: It is recommended to consider the opportunity to expand the spread between soybean oil and palm oil [69]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil** - **Market Performance**: Canadian rapeseed contracts showed mixed results. The domestic inventory of rapeseed has increased, the inventory of rapeseed meal has decreased, and the inventory of rapeseed oil has slightly decreased [70]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: It is recommended to consider the opportunity to go long on rapeseed meal after a pullback [71]. - **Cotton** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, domestic Zhengzhou cotton rose significantly, and the overnight external cotton market closed slightly higher [72]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The Sino - US negotiation is favorable for cotton, but the USDA's supply - demand report is negative. The domestic downstream demand is weak. It is recommended to operate with a light position and pay close attention to the S