-------------------- 商品研究 -------------------- [Table_ReportType] 煤焦早报 ----------------- 期 走势评级： 焦炭——震荡 焦煤——震荡偏弱 刘开友—黑色研究员 从业资格证号：F03087895 投资咨询证号：Z0019509 联系电话：0571-28132535 邮箱：liukaiyou@cindasc.com 信达期货股份有限公司 CINDAFUTURESCO.LTD 杭州市萧山区钱江世纪城天人大厦19-20楼 邮编：311200 PPI 仍未止跌，焦煤增仓下行，等待二次触底 报告日期： [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 6 月 10 日 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 1. 五月份，中国 CPI 同比下降 0.1%，降幅与上月持平，PPI 同比下降 3.3%，降幅比 上月扩大 0.6 个百分点。 现货第三轮提降落地，期货走平。天津港准一级焦报 1270 元/吨(-0)。活跃合约报 1339 元/吨(-11.5)。基差 26.59 元/吨(+11.5)，9-1 月差-21 元/吨(+1.5 ...

商品研究 期货研究报告 气候湿润有利甘蔗生长，白糖短线承压 [T报ab告le日_R期ep：ortDate] 2025-06-10 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 白糖：由于糖料种植的经济效益显著，加上国家政策和制糖企业的积极支 持，农民的种植积极性有所提升，导致糖料种植面积稳步增长。然而，广西 早期的干旱天气对宿根甘蔗的出苗和新植甘蔗的种植产生了不利影响，从而 限制了食糖产量的增长。食糖消费量预期保持平稳或略有增加，食糖的供需 缺口基本稳定，进口量预期维持在 500 万吨不变。短期观望为主 软商品日报 走势评级： 白糖——震荡 棉花——震荡 棉花：新疆的棉花目标价格补贴政策保持稳定，棉农的种植积极性较高， 种植面积略有增加；而内地棉区由于比较效益低和机械化推广难度大等因 素，种植面积持续下降。在棉花播种和出苗期间，主要产区的气候条件良好， 预计单产为每公顷 2172 公斤（每亩 144.8 公斤），与去年持平。棉花总产 量预计为 625 万吨，比去年增加 1.4%。受美国过度征收关税的影响，棉花 消费预期偏弱，但未来仍存在一定的不确定性。预计新年度的棉花消费量为 740 万吨，较去年小幅减少 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Sugar: Oscillation [1] - Cotton: Oscillation [1] Core Views - Sugar: Sugarcane planting area is growing steadily due to economic benefits, policy support, and enterprise encouragement. However, early drought in Guangxi has limited sugar production growth. Sugar consumption is expected to remain stable or increase slightly, with a stable supply - demand gap and an expected import volume of 5 million tons. Short - term outlook is to wait and see [1]. - Cotton: Xinjiang's stable target price subsidy policy has boosted cotton farmers' enthusiasm, leading to a slight increase in planting area, while the inland area has seen a continuous decline. With favorable climate conditions during sowing and emergence, the expected yield per hectare is 2,172 kg. Total cotton output is expected to be 6.25 million tons, a 1.4% increase from last year. Affected by US tariffs, cotton consumption is expected to be weak, with an expected consumption of 7.4 million tons (a 200,000 - ton decrease) and an import volume of 1.4 million tons (a 100,000 - ton decrease). Short - term outlook is to wait and see [1]. Data Summary Price and Spread - **External Quotes**: US sugar and cotton prices remained unchanged on June 7 - 8, 2025, with a 0.00% change [3]. - **Spot Prices**: Sugar prices in Nanning remained unchanged, while those in Kunming increased by 0.08%. The cotton index 328 decreased by 0.12%, and Xinjiang cotton prices remained unchanged from June 5 - 6, 2025 [3]. - **Spreads**: All sugar and cotton spreads remained unchanged from June 7 - 8, 2025 [3]. - **Basis**: All sugar and cotton basis values remained unchanged from June 5 - 6, 2025 [3]. Import and Profit - **Import Prices**: The cotton cotlookA price increased by 0.32% from June 5 - 6, 2025 [3]. - **Profit Space**: Sugar import profit remained unchanged from June 5 - 6, 2025 [3]. Options and Volatility - **Options**: Implied and historical volatilities are provided for sugar and cotton options contracts [3]. Warehouse Receipts - **Warehouse Receipts**: Sugar warehouse receipts decreased by 1.51%, and cotton warehouse receipts decreased by 0.63% from June 5 - 6, 2025 [3]. Company Information - **Company Profile**: Cinda Futures Co., Ltd. is a limited - liability company specializing in domestic futures business, wholly - owned by Cinda Securities Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of 600 million yuan. It has multiple memberships in domestic futures exchanges [9].

Report 1: Nickel and Stainless Steel Morning Report 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Nickel: Rolling short selling - Stainless steel: Hold [1] 2. Core View - The cost side may still collapse, and it is recommended to maintain interval rolling short selling. The main operating range is between 118,000 - 133,000 yuan, and the core operating range is between 120,000 - 127,000 yuan. [1][2] 3. Summary by Directory Macro & Industry News - "Fed Whisperer" Nick Timiraos said that Fed officials may focus more on the unemployment rate than employment growth when assessing whether labor demand is slowing. As long as the unemployment rate remains at the current level, the Fed will not necessarily be worried about the slowdown in employment growth. [1] Supply - Nickel ore: The Philippines has completely emerged from the rainy season, and both the domestic arrival volume and the Philippine shipping volume have increased significantly. The nickel ore price has seasonally weakened, leading to a decline in the costs of all links in the industrial chain. - Ferronickel: The domestic production of ferronickel has slightly decreased, but the production in Indonesia has still increased rapidly, with a year - on - year increase of more than 30% and a month - on - month increase of more than 10%. The total supply of domestic imports and ferronickel remains high and in surplus. - Electrolytic nickel: The month - on - month decline in electrolytic nickel production is minimal, but the year - on - year increase exceeds 45%. The total supply of electrolytic nickel, including imports, is high. [1] Demand - In the process of producing nickel sulfate from nickel beans, the nickel cost is about 127,000 yuan, which is consistent with the technical pressure level. The demand support provided by the downstream nickel sulfate cost is about 126,700 yuan/ton, and the profit critical point of external procurement manufacturers has dropped to 133,000 yuan/ton. - Due to the large number of integrated nickel - iron and stainless - steel manufacturers in the industrial chain, they can use the nickel - iron profit to make up for the stainless - steel loss. However, since May, the nickel - iron profit has rapidly shrunk and once faced losses, which may affect the stainless - steel production. Overall, the demand is still weak. [2] Conclusion - The main operating range is between 118,000 - 133,000 yuan; the core operating range is between 120,000 - 127,000 yuan. Operation Suggestion - Close previous short positions in batches; roll short after the price rebounds. [2] Report 2: Shanghai Zinc Morning Report 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Zinc: Bearish [3] 2. Core View - The impact of tariffs has temporarily subsided. In the short term, supply is stable with a slight increase, while the peak demand season has passed. Manufacturers are pessimistic about terminal expectations, so the overall view is bearish. [4] 3. Summary by Directory Macro & Industry News - Shuka Minerals has obtained the temporary unconditional authorization from the Zambia Competition and Consumer Protection Commission (CCPC) to acquire 100% of the equity of Zambia's Leopard Exploration and Mining (LEM), which owns the Kabwe zinc mine. [3] Supply - During the narrow - range fluctuation of zinc prices, the profit per ton of mining enterprises is basically maintained at about 4,000 yuan/ton. The processing fees in the north and south have returned to 3,500 yuan/ton. Whether it is an integrated enterprise or a pure smelting enterprise, they will maintain high production under the current situation of increasing total supply at the mine end. The supply of zinc ingots is generally loose. [3] Demand - Galvanizing: The production capacity has expanded, but the capacity utilization rate and output are not high, and manufacturers' production enthusiasm is low. The inventory of steel mills is low, and social inventory has begun to accumulate. It is speculated that galvanizing manufacturers are also pessimistic about terminal demand, and the short - term demand for zinc ingots has declined. - Zinc oxide: The operating rate is still rising, mainly due to seasonal demand, but the upward space is limited. The production end has no positive support, and there are signs of further contraction in downstream production. - Die - casting alloy: The operating rate has exceeded the same period last year, with both year - on - year and month - on - month increases, and the weekly output has increased significantly. However, the operating rate of downstream enterprises is expected to decline. In general, the short - term demand for zinc is difficult to improve significantly, but there is still some resilience. [4] Conclusion - The impact of tariffs has temporarily subsided. In the short term, supply is stable with a slight increase, while the peak demand season has passed. Manufacturers are pessimistic about terminal expectations, so the overall view is bearish. [4] Operation Suggestion - Short with a light position. [5]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Commodity Futures Open Interest Tracking [1] - Date: June 6, 2025 [1] - Researcher: Chen Weiwen [1] - Contact Information: Phone 0571 - 28132619, Email chenweiwen@cindasc.com [1] Group 2: Main Views - Commodities with open interest percentile above 90%: Hot - rolled coil, industrial silicon, coking coal, styrene [2] - Commodities with open interest percentile below 10%: Coke, thermal coal [3] - Top five commodities with increased positions today: Shanghai silver, staple fiber, low - sulfur fuel oil, apple, sugar [4] - Top five commodities with decreased positions today: Glass, PVC, Shanghai tin, Shanghai nickel, rapeseed oil [4] Group 3: Data Overview Metals | Commodity | Percentile | Today's Change | 5 - day Change | 30 - day Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai silver | 88.49% | 12.06% | 15.71% | 13.04% | | Shanghai gold | 88.85% | - 0.90% | - 0.94% | - 3.30% | | Shanghai aluminum | 58.57% | - 0.59% | - 0.55% | - 1.69% | | Shanghai copper | 84.60% | 3.02% | 5.07% | 7.65% | | Shanghai nickel | 19.45% | - 3.75% | - 15.58% | - 2.57% | | Shanghai lead | 35.96% | 1.16% | 19.15% | 17.22% | | Shanghai tin | 34.52% | - 4.07% | - 1.61% | - 24.57% | | Shanghai zinc | 43.62% | - 2.43% | 3.07% | 2.37% | | Stainless steel | 61.41% | 0.10% | - 2.69% | - 16.75% | | Industrial silicon | 99.48% | - 0.52% | 6.99% | 45.30% | | Hot - rolled coil | 100.00% | 0.61% | 3.81% | 6.15% | | Iron ore | 56.58% | - 0.06% | 3.30% | 12.30% | | Coke | 7.94% | - 0.03% | - 3.93% | 16.99% | | Coking coal | 96.77% | - 3.08% | 7.22% | 45.62% | | Rebar | 71.94% | - 1.15% | - 3.00% | 0.52% | | Ferrosilicon | 49.63% | 1.62% | 6.66% | 12.91% | | Silicomanganese | 47.04% | - 2.40% | 3.25% | 5.69% | [5] Energy and Chemicals | Commodity | Percentile | Today's Change | 5 - day Change | 30 - day Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Fuel oil | 33.56% | 2.21% | 12.36% | 7.58% | | Low - sulfur fuel oil | 40.15% | 6.79% | - 6.61% | 21.00% | | LPG | 43.22% | - 1.85% | - 2.32% | 10.67% | | Crude oil | 23.17% | 1.14% | - 3.41% | - 0.40% | | Thermal coal | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | | PVC | 76.66% | - 4.35% | - 4.93% | 3.82% | | Asphalt | 34.13% | 1.68% | 4.52% | 4.31% | | Styrene | 91.42% | - 0.11% | 4.81% | 7.50% | | Ethylene glycol | 42.05% | 0.32% | 7.41% | - 9.10% | | Polyethylene | 67.66% | 0.36% | 0.87% | 19.36% | | Methanol | 32.20% | - 0.10% | 3.36% | 19.01% | | 20 - numbered rubber | 59.20% | - 0.19% | - 2.40% | - 17.17% | | Staple fiber | 17.38% | 8.81% | 14.49% | - 4.57% | | Polypropylene | 52.20% | - 0.02% | - 0.40% | 25.81% | | Rubber | 26.67% | - 2.04% | - 2.64% | 16.13% | | Pulp | 25.34% | - 2.71% | - 13.82% | - 15.92% | | PTA | 39.87% | - 1.19% | - 11.30% | 13.30% | | Urea | 30.97% | 0.62% | 11.41% | 19.82% | [5][6] Agricultural Products | Commodity | Percentile | Today's Change | 5 - day Change | 30 - day Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean meal | 86.66% | 1.65% | 2.28% | 2.37% | | Rapeseed oil | 39.95% | - 3.35% | - 9.32% | - 5.62% | | Palm oil | 35.58% | - 2.03% | - 8.64% | 4.60% | | Peanut | 56.99% | - 0.09% | 5.54% | 139.47% | | Rapeseed meal | 34.78% | - 2.16% | - 5.65% | - 23.78% | | Soybean oil | 52.96% | - 2.41% | - 1.16% | 2.66% | | Cotton | 53.72% | 1.69% | 2.95% | - 1.75% | | Sugar | 21.12% | 5.21% | 23.37% | 2.28% | | Apple | 18.12% | 5.63% | - 2.18% | - 4.28% | | Corn | 67.18% | - 1.24% | - 5.74% | - 16.32% | | Soybean | 68.78% | - 1.84% | - 9.28% | - 6.70% | | Egg | 82.18% | 3.86% | 3.15% | 6.64% | | Live hog | 76.79% | 1.64% | 1.10% | 3.08% | | Red dates | 60.04% | - 1.33% | - 2.88% | - 8.11% | | Starch | 38.10% | 3.84% | 6.02% | 13.45% | [6]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Sugar: Oscillation [1] - Cotton: Oscillation [1] Core Views - Sugar: Sugarcane planting area has increased due to economic benefits, policy support, and enterprise incentives, but early drought in Guangxi has limited sugar production growth. Sugar consumption is expected to remain stable or increase slightly, with a stable supply - demand gap and an expected import volume of 5 million tons. Short - term strategy is to wait and see [1]. - Cotton: Xinjiang's stable cotton target price subsidy policy has maintained farmers' planting enthusiasm, increasing the planting area slightly, while the area in inland regions has decreased. With good climate conditions during sowing and emergence, the expected yield per hectare is 2,172 kg (144.8 kg per mu), the same as last year. The total production is expected to reach 6.25 million tons, a 1.4% increase. Affected by US tariffs, cotton consumption is expected to be weak, but there is still uncertainty. The expected consumption for the new year is 7.4 million tons, a decrease of 200,000 tons from last year, and the import volume is adjusted down to 1.4 million tons, a decrease of 100,000 tons. Short - term strategy is to wait and see [1]. Data Summary 1. Price and Spread Data - **External Quotes**: On June 4 - 5, 2025, the price of US sugar decreased by 0.78% from $16.75 to $16.62, and the price of US cotton increased by 0.42% from $65.05 to $65.32 [3]. - **Spot Prices**: Sugar spot prices in Nanning and Kunming remained unchanged at 6,090 and 5,910 respectively; the cotton index 328 decreased by 0.01% from 3,281 to 3,280, and the cotton price in Xinjiang remained at 14,450 [3]. - **Spreads**: The spreads of SR01 - 05, SR05 - 09, and SR09 - 01 increased by 11.11%, 6.88%, and 5.65% respectively; the spread of CF01 - 05 decreased by 33.33%, and the spread of CF05 - 09 increased by 12.50%, while the spread of CF09 - 01 remained unchanged [3]. - **Basis**: The basis of sugar 01, 05, and 09 increased by 8.74%, 9.01%, and 11.11% respectively; the basis of cotton 01, 05, and 09 increased by 1.55%, 1.13%, and 1.49% respectively [3]. 2. Import and Profit Data - **Import Prices**: The import price of cotton cotlookA remained at 78.25 on June 4 - 5, 2025 [3]. - **Profit Space**: The sugar import profit remained at 1,609 on June 4 - 5, 2025 [3]. 3. Option and Volatility Data - **Options**: For options SR509C5700 and SR509P5700, the implied volatility is 0.0781 and 0.0785 respectively, with SR509 as the futures underlying and a historical volatility of 9.04; for options CF509C13200 and CF509P13200, the implied volatility is 0.0964 and 0.0943 respectively, with CF509 as the futures underlying and a historical volatility of 12.42 [3]. 4. Warehouse Receipt Data - On June 4 - 5, 2025, the number of sugar warehouse receipts decreased by 1.34% from 30,300 to 29,893, and the number of cotton warehouse receipts decreased by 0.35% from 10,977 to 10,939 [3]. Company Information - The report is produced by Cinda Futures Co., Ltd., located at the 19th - 20th floors of Tianren Building, Qianjiang Century City, Xiaoshan District, Hangzhou, with a postal code of 311200. It is a large - scale domestic futures company, wholly - owned by Cinda Securities Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of 600 million RMB. It is a full - settlement member of the China Financial Futures Exchange, a full - power member of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, and Dalian Commodity Exchange, and a member of the Shanghai International Energy Exchange and Guangzhou Futures Exchange [1][9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Jiao coal: Sideways to slightly bearish [1] - Coke: Sideways [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The impact of tariffs will gradually weaken, and the focus will return to the domestic economic situation. The market is looking forward to supply - side production restrictions and fiscal policies to boost domestic demand [4]. - For coking coal, supply is shrinking due to environmental inspections and safety production, but the import pressure from Mongolia remains. If the mine capacity utilization rate continues to decline, the upstream inventory pressure will gradually ease [4]. - For coke, cost and downstream demand are decisive factors. With weakening supply - demand, the second - round price cut of coke has been fully implemented, and there may be two more rounds of price cuts in June if the cost side does not stabilize [4]. - The recent rise in coking coal is mainly driven by supply - side news and should be regarded as a rebound rather than a reversal. Short - term advice is to hold J09 long positions lightly and add positions after confirming the bottom [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal Market Conditions - Spot is weak, while futures are rebounding. Mongolian 5 main coking coal is reported at 893 yuan/ton (unchanged), the active contract is at 757 yuan/ton (down 11 yuan), the basis is 156 yuan/ton (up 11 yuan), and the 9 - 1 month spread is - 16 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan) [1]. - Mine开工率 continues to decline, and coking enterprise开工率 remains flat. The开工 rate of 523 mines is 85.49% (down 0.81), the开工 rate of 110 coal washing plants is 61.55% (down 0.81), and the production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is 75.08% (down 0.1) [2]. - Upstream inventory is accumulating, and downstream inventory is decreasing. The refined coal inventory of 523 mines is 473.03 million tons (up 25.5 million tons), the refined coal inventory of coal washing plants is 222.07 million tons (up 7.33 million tons), the inventory of 247 steel mills is 786.79 million tons (down 11.96 million tons), the inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 716.66 million tons (down 21.3 million tons), and the port inventory is 303.09 million tons (up 1.53 million tons) [2]. Strategy Suggestions - The supply of coking coal is shrinking, but the import pressure remains. If the mine capacity utilization rate continues to decline, the upstream inventory pressure will ease. The recent rise is a rebound, not a reversal. Short - term advice is to hold J09 long positions lightly and add positions after confirming the bottom [4][5]. Coke Market Conditions - The third - round spot price cut has started, and futures are rebounding. Tianjin Port's quasi - first - grade coke is reported at 1340 yuan/ton (unchanged), and some steel mills have started the third - round price cut. The active contract is at 1342 yuan/ton (down 25.5 yuan), the basis is 98.86 yuan/ton (up 25.5 yuan), and the 9 - 1 month spread is - 16.5 yuan/ton (down 8 yuan) [3]. - Supply remains flat, and demand has peaked and declined. The production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is 75.08% (down 0.1), the capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is 90.69% (down 0.63), and the daily average pig iron output is 241.91 million tons (down 1.69 million tons) [3]. - Upstream inventory is accumulating, and downstream inventory is decreasing. The inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 78.33 million tons (up 5.23 million tons), the inventory of 247 steel mills is 654.93 million tons (down 5.66 million tons), and the port inventory is 217.18 million tons (down 5.91 million tons) [3]. Strategy Suggestions - Cost and downstream demand are decisive factors. With weakening supply - demand, the second - round price cut of coke has been fully implemented, and there may be two more rounds of price cuts in June if the cost side does not stabilize [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating for the stock index is "Oscillation" [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In May, fundamental factors changed little. Against the backdrop of a protracted trade - war, the story of China's asset revaluation driven by fundamental inflection points is difficult to start. It is expected that the stock index will continue to oscillate in June, and a band - operation strategy is recommended [3] - The current stock index rally is mainly driven by retail sentiment and theme speculation, with domestic liquidity as the main source, making the A - share index relatively independent globally. The stock index is at a relatively high position within the oscillation range, and there is a need for further adjustment in technical terms. Considering the high probability of market sentiment cooling in the second quarter historically, it is advisable to wait for a pull - back [3] - For futures operations, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term, with the lower support level at the position on April 9th. A band - operation strategy is recommended on a monthly basis. For options operations, the implied volatility of stock - index options is oscillating at a low level. The cost of buying options during the waiting period for a breakthrough is expected to be high, and the premium from selling options is limited. It is recommended to wait for a second wave of rising volatility before engaging in double - selling [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Stock Market Information - FTSE Russell announced the quarterly review changes to the FTSE China Index Series, which will take effect after the close on June 20th. Jiangsu Bank will be included in the FTSE China A50 Index, while Great Wall Motor will be removed. A - shares such as BeiGene, Yili Group, SAIC Motor, Seres, and Inovance Technology are included in the candidate list [4] - The US ADP employment in May increased by 37,000, lower than the expected 110,000 and the previous value of 62,000. After the release of the data, US President Trump called for Fed Chairman Powell to cut interest rates [4] Stock Index Disk Review - **Market Performance**: In the previous trading day, the A - shares rose collectively. Among the four major indices, the Shanghai 50 Index rose 0.13%, the CSI 300 Index rose 0.43%, the CSI 500 Index rose 0.78%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.88%. The leisure goods (+3.05%) and motorcycle (+2.56%) sectors led the gains, while the land transportation (-1.15%) and aviation (-1.08%) sectors lagged. More than 3,900 stocks rose, and 87 stocks hit the daily limit, indicating a rebound in the profit - making effect [4] - **Technical Analysis**: After a previous oversold rebound, the stock indices generally approached the upper edge of the gap. The pressure at the daily and weekly levels has increased, while the monthly - line shows an oscillating trend [4] - **Fund Flow**: The trading volume of A - shares is oscillating at a low level, remaining around 1.1 - 1.2 trillion yuan. Market sentiment is cautious, and the sustainability of the market is poor [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Coke - Oscillating weakly [1] - Coking coal - Oscillating weakly [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PMI data in May rebounded month - on - month compared to April. Although it is still below 50, it is stronger than the seasonality, mainly due to the repair of export orders after the China - US economic and trade agreement reached in Geneva. The focus will return to the domestic economic operation. The market is looking forward to supply - side production restrictions and fiscal policies to boost domestic demand [4]. - For coking coal, supply is shrinking due to environmental inspections and safety production, and the biggest bearish pressure is loosening. However, the high - level Mongolian coal customs clearance still poses import pressure. If the mine capacity utilization rate continues to decline, the upstream inventory accumulation pressure will gradually ease [4]. - For coke, cost and downstream demand are the decisive factors for its future trend. With the continuous decline of coking coal prices, coke enterprises still have a small profit and supply remains flat. Iron - water production has been decreasing for three consecutive weeks, and demand has peaked. If the cost side does not stabilize, it is expected that coke spot prices may see two more rounds of price cuts in June [4]. - Currently, the price has basically reached the cost line of most coal mines, and the room for further decline is limited. Short - term advice is to continue to hold a small position of J09 long orders and add positions after confirming the bottom [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Coking Coal Supply - The supply of coking coal is affected by environmental inspections and safety production and has begun to shrink. Domestic coking coal mine operating rates have declined from their high levels. 523 mines have an operating rate of 85.49% (-0.81), and 110 coal washing plants have an operating rate of 61.55% (-0.81) [1]. Inventory - Upstream inventory is accumulating, and downstream inventory is decreasing. 523 mines have a clean coal inventory of 473.03 million tons (+25.5), coal washing plants have a clean coal inventory of 222.07 million tons (+7.33), 247 steel mills have an inventory of 786.79 million tons (-11.96), 230 coke enterprises have an inventory of 716.66 million tons (-21.3), and port inventory is 303.09 million tons (+1.53) [2]. Price - Mongolian 5 coking coal is reported at 918 yuan/ton (-0), and the active contract is reported at 768 yuan/ton (+49). The basis is 145 yuan/ton (-74), and the 9 - 1 month spread is -18 yuan/ton (-1.5) [1]. Coke Supply - Coke supply remains flat. The production rate of 230 independent coke enterprises is reported at 75.08% (-0.1) [1][3]. Demand - Demand has peaked and declined. The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is reported at 90.69% (-0.63), and the daily average iron - water output is 241.91 million tons (-1.69) [3]. Inventory - Upstream inventory is accumulating, and downstream inventory is decreasing. 230 coke enterprises have an inventory of 78.33 million tons (+5.23), 247 steel mills have an inventory of 654.93 million tons (-5.66), and port inventory is 217.18 million tons (-5.91) [3]. Price - The quasi - first - grade coke at Tianjin Port is reported at 1340 yuan/ton (-0), and some steel mills have initiated the third - round price cut. The active contract is reported at 1367.5 yuan/ton (+68.5). The basis is 73.36 yuan/ton (-68.5), and the 9 - 1 month spread is -8.5 yuan/ton (+15) [3]. Strategy Recommendations - For coking coal, if the mine capacity utilization rate continues to decline, the upstream inventory accumulation pressure will gradually ease. - For coke, if the cost side does not stabilize, it is expected that coke spot prices may see two more rounds of price cuts in June. Short - term advice is to continue to hold a small position of J09 long orders and add positions after confirming the bottom [4][5].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Nickel - Rolling short selling [1] - Stainless steel - Hold [1] - Zinc - Bearish outlook [3] 2. Core Views Nickel and Stainless Steel - The Fed's "Beige Book" shows a pessimistic economic outlook, with increased policy uncertainty and price pressures. Nickel remains in a range - bound pattern. Nickel ore prices are seasonally weak, and the overall supply of nickel is in surplus. Demand is weak, with the main operating range between 118,000 - 133,000 yuan, and the core operating range between 120,000 - 127,000 yuan [1][2] Zinc - From January to April, the revenue and profit of large - scale non - ferrous metal industrial enterprises increased. Zinc supply is generally loose, while demand has some resilience but is expected to be weak in the short term. Overall, it is bearish [3][4] 3. Summary by Directory Macro & Industry News - For nickel and stainless steel, the Fed's "Beige Book" on June 4 shows that US economic activity has declined slightly, with increased policy uncertainty and price pressures. Some regions' enterprises increased procurement due to tariffs, and the residential real estate market was basically flat [1] - For zinc, from January to April, 11,945 large - scale non - ferrous metal industrial enterprises had a revenue of 3.08779 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 18.0%. The revenue profit margin was 4.15%, 0.39 percentage points higher than the same period last year [3] Supply - **Nickel**: Philippine nickel ore shipments and domestic arrivals have increased, and nickel ore prices have weakened seasonally. Domestic nickel - iron production has slightly decreased, while Indonesian nickel - iron production has increased rapidly (year - on - year increase over 30%, month - on - month increase over 10%). Domestic nickel - iron imports and total supply are high, remaining in surplus. Electrolytic nickel production has a small month - on - month decrease but a year - on - year increase of over 45% [1] - **Zinc**: During the narrow - range fluctuation of zinc prices, the profit per ton of mining enterprises is about 4,000 yuan/ton. The processing fees in the north and south have returned to 3,500 yuan/ton. Both integrated and smelting enterprises will maintain high production, and the supply of zinc ingots is generally loose [3] Demand - **Nickel**: In the process of producing nickel sulfate from nickel beans, the cost of nickel is about 127,000 yuan. The demand support for downstream nickel sulfate is about 126,700 yuan/ton, and the profit threshold for external procurement manufacturers has dropped to 133,000 yuan/ton. Nickel - iron and stainless - steel integrated manufacturers previously had high stainless - steel production, but nickel - iron profits have shrunk since May, which may affect stainless - steel production. Overall, demand is weak [2] - **Zinc**: Galvanized production capacity has expanded, but utilization and output are low, and manufacturers' production enthusiasm is low. Zinc oxide's upward trend is due to seasonal demand, with limited upside. Die - casting alloy production has increased, but there is an expectation of a decline in downstream operating rates. Overall, short - term zinc demand is difficult to improve significantly, but there is still resilience [4] Conclusion - **Nickel and stainless steel**: The main operating range is between 118,000 - 133,000 yuan, and the core operating range is between 120,000 - 127,000 yuan. It is recommended to take partial profits on previous short positions and roll short after rebounds [2] - **Zinc**: The impact of tariffs has temporarily subsided. Short - term supply is stable with a slight increase, and the demand peak season has passed. Manufacturers are pessimistic about the terminal, so it is bearish overall. It is recommended to short with a light position [4][5]