商品研究 | 走势评级: | 白糖 | 震荡 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 棉花 | 震荡 | 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 期货研究报告 市场担忧印度增加出口，白糖短期震荡 [T报ab告le日_R期ep：ortDate] 2025-05-28 报告内容摘要: 本公司已取得期货交易咨询业务资格，交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1445 号。 [Table_Summary] 白糖：由于糖料种植的经济效益显著，加上国家政策和制糖企业的积极支 持，农民的种植积极性有所提升，导致糖料种植面积稳步增长。然而，广西 早期的干旱天气对宿根甘蔗的出苗和新植甘蔗的种植产生了不利影响，从而 限制了食糖产量的增长。食糖消费量预期保持平稳或略有增加，食糖的供需 缺口基本稳定，进口量预期维持在 500 万吨不变。短期观望为主 软商品日报 走势评级： 白糖——震荡 棉花——震荡 棉花：新疆的棉花目标价格补贴政策保持稳定，棉农的种植积极性较高， 种植面积略有增加；而内地 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for coke is "Oscillating Weakly", and for coking coal is also "Oscillating Weakly" [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The economy in April showed mixed signals. Real - estate prices and industrial增加值 had setbacks, while government leverage continued. The market is looking forward to supply - side production cuts and fiscal policies to boost domestic demand. The policy - market cycle in recent years shows different market sentiments in each quarter [4] - For coking coal, supply is starting to contract, and the biggest negative pressure is easing. If the mine capacity utilization rate continues to decline, the upstream inventory pressure will gradually ease. For coke, cost and downstream demand are decisive factors. The second - round price cut expectation for coke is strengthening, and it is expected to be implemented soon. Potential positives include possible production cuts in the steel industry and fiscal policy support [5] - Rumors of downstream steel production cuts are fermenting, and the possibility of production cuts is higher than last year. Environmental inspections may further limit the supply of coking coal and coke. Despite the weak supply - demand situation, the pessimistic sentiment may be reversed under low - valuation and supply - side contraction expectations [6] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory Coking Coal Supply - The spot price of coking coal has been lowered, and the futures price has declined. The domestic coking coal mine operating rate has dropped significantly. The 523 - mine operating rate is 86.3% (-2.96), and the 110 - coal - washing plant operating rate is 62.36% (+0.28) [2] Inventory - Upstream inventory has increased, and downstream inventory has decreased. 523 - mine clean coal inventory is 447.53 million tons (+37.08), coal - washing plant clean coal inventory is 214.74 million tons (+11.48), 247 - steel - mill inventory is 798.75 million tons (+7.54), 230 - coking - enterprise inventory is 737.96 (-14.6), and port inventory is 301.56 million tons (-4.53) [2] Coke Supply - The expectation of a second - round spot price cut for coke is strengthening, and the futures price has declined. The production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is 75.18% (-0.05) [3] Demand - The demand has peaked and declined. The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is 91.32% (-0.44), and the daily average pig iron output is 243.6 million tons (-1.17) [3] Inventory - Upstream inventory has increased, and downstream inventory has decreased. 230 - coking - enterprise inventory is 73.1 million tons (+7.64), 247 - steel - mill inventory is 660.59 million tons (-3.21), and port inventory is 223.1 million tons (-2.02) [3] Strategy Suggestion - The current economic data shows a complex situation. Although the real - estate and industrial sectors are under pressure, government leverage continues. The market is waiting for supply - side production cuts and fiscal policies. For coking coal, the supply contraction may relieve inventory pressure. For coke, the second - round price cut is likely to be implemented. The potential positives may change the market sentiment [4][5][6]

商品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款 1 | 数据速览 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 外盘报价 | | 2025-05-25 | 2025-05-26 | 涨跌幅 | | | 美白糖（美元） | 17.31 | 17.31 | 0.00% | | | 美棉花（美元） | 66.06 | 66.06 | 0.00% | | 现货价格 | | 2025-05-23 | 2025-05-26 | 涨跌幅 | | | 白糖（南宁） | 6155.0 | 6155.0 | 0.00% | | | 白糖（昆明） | 5975.0 | 5970.0 | -0.08% | | | 棉花指数 328 | 3281 | 3280 | -0.01% | | | 棉花（新疆） | 14550.0 | 14500.0 | -0.34% | | 价差速览 | | 2025-05-25 | 2025-05-26 | 涨跌幅 | | | SR01-05 | 35.0 | 46.0 | 31.43% | | | SR05-09 | -175.0 | -182.0 | 4.00% | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Crude oil - Oscillation [1] Core Viewpoints - The market is waiting for the results of this Wednesday's meeting, with reduced price fluctuations. Crude oil prices are currently oscillating in the low - range of $60 - 68, and the medium - to - long - term downward trend remains unchanged [1]. - Supply - side pressure is continuously accumulating. If the OPEC+ production increase policy is implemented in July, the total increase will reach 1.23 million barrels per day, and the global crude oil surplus may exceed 3 million barrels per day [2]. - Geopolitical factors have high popularity but low pricing impact on the market. Although there are concerns about conflict escalation, historical experience shows that the impact on oil prices is short - lived [2]. - The market is currently in a weak balance, with geopolitical risks offsetting supply - side pressures. In the medium - to - long - term, inventory accumulation caused by OPEC+ production increases is difficult to reverse [4]. Summary by Directory Market Structure - The report presents the WTI, Brent, and SC forward curves and their respective monthly spreads, but no specific analysis of these data is provided in the given text [1][15][17] Supply - OPEC+ has been over - producing in May and June, and the market expects the same increase in July. Saudi's production policy shift has undermined the alliance's discipline. If the policy is implemented in July, the total OPEC+ increase will be 1.23 million barrels per day. US shale oil production is also at a historical high, and the global crude oil surplus may exceed 3 million barrels per day [2]. - Russia has extended its gasoline export ban until the end of June, which has a limited impact on crude oil exports but eases market sentiment [2]. Demand - Although the easing of Sino - US trade frictions has injected short - term confidence into the demand side, the certainty of OPEC+ accelerating production increases has put pressure on the fundamentals [4]. Inventory - The EIA predicts that global commercial crude oil inventories will exceed 5.3 billion barrels in the third quarter, with a year - on - year increase of 12% [4]. Geopolitical Risks - There are concerns about a potential conflict between Israel and Iran. If Israel attacks, Iran may counter - attack in three ways, but the probability of blocking the Strait of Hormuz is low. The US Navy's deployment has reduced market concerns about a continuous supply shock [3]. Operation Suggestions - The market currently prices downward risks higher than upward risks. If there is an unexpected breakthrough in the Iran nuclear negotiations, it may cause a negative impact; conversely, the outbreak of conflict will bring short - term upward momentum. In the medium - to - long - term, every rebound is a good opportunity to enter a short position [4].

商品研究 | 走势评级: | 白糖 | 震荡 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 棉花- | 震荡 | 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 期货研究报告 受助于美元微贬，白糖短期有所支撑 [T报ab告le日_R期ep：ortDate] 2025-05-26 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 白糖：由于糖料种植的经济效益显著，加上国家政策和制糖企业的积极支 持，农民的种植积极性有所提升，导致糖料种植面积稳步增长。然而，广西 早期的干旱天气对宿根甘蔗的出苗和新植甘蔗的种植产生了不利影响，从而 限制了食糖产量的增长。食糖消费量预期保持平稳或略有增加，食糖的供需 缺口基本稳定，进口量预期维持在 500 万吨不变。短期观望为主 软商品日报 走势评级： 白糖——震荡 棉花——震荡 棉花：新疆的棉花目标价格补贴政策保持稳定，棉农的种植积极性较高， 种植面积略有增加；而内地棉区由于比较效益低和机械化推广难度大等因 素，种植面积持续下降。在棉花播种和出苗期间，主 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for sugar is "sideways" [1]. - The investment rating for cotton is "sideways" [1]. Core Viewpoints - For sugar, due to the significant economic benefits of sugar crop cultivation, along with positive support from national policies and sugar - making enterprises, farmers' planting enthusiasm has increased, leading to a steady growth in sugar crop planting area. However, early drought in Guangxi affected the emergence of ratoon sugarcane and the planting of new sugarcane, limiting the growth of sugar production. Sugar consumption is expected to remain stable or increase slightly, the supply - demand gap is basically stable, and imports are expected to stay at 5 million tons. Short - term strategy is to wait and see [1]. - For cotton, Xinjiang's cotton target price subsidy policy remains stable, and cotton farmers' planting enthusiasm is high, with a slight increase in planting area. Inland cotton areas have seen a continuous decline in planting area due to low comparative benefits and difficulties in mechanization promotion. During the sowing and emergence period, the climate in major producing areas was favorable, and the expected yield per hectare is 2,172 kg (144.8 kg per mu), the same as last year. Total cotton production is expected to be 6.25 million tons, a 1.4% increase from last year. Affected by excessive US tariffs, cotton consumption is expected to be weak, but there is still some uncertainty. The expected cotton consumption in the new season is 7.4 million tons, a decrease of 200,000 tons from last year, and imports are also adjusted down to 1.4 million tons, a decrease of 100,000 tons. Short - term strategy is to wait and see [1]. Data Summary Price and Spread Data - **Sugar**: On May 21 - 22, 2025, the price of US sugar decreased by 2.03%, the spot price of sugar in Nanning increased by 0.16%, and in Kunming by 0.17%. The spreads SR01 - 05, SR05 - 09, and SR09 - 01 all decreased, and the sugar 01, 05, and 09 basis all increased [3]. - **Cotton**: On May 21 - 22, 2025, the price of US cotton decreased by 0.58%, the cotton index 328 increased by 0.37%, and the price of cotton in Xinjiang increased by 0.35%. The spreads CF01 - 05, CF05 - 09, and CF09 - 01 changed, and the cotton 01, 05, and 09 basis all increased [3]. Import and Profit Data - The import price of cotton cotlookA remained unchanged on May 21 - 22, 2025, and the sugar import profit also remained unchanged [3]. Option and Volatility Data - For sugar option SR509C5900, the implied volatility is 0.0897, and the historical volatility of the underlying futures SR509 is 9.3. For cotton option CF509C13400, the implied volatility is 0.099, and the historical volatility of the underlying futures CF509 is 12.68 [3]. Warehouse Receipt Data - On May 21 - 22, 2025, the number of sugar warehouse receipts decreased by 0.55%, and the number of cotton warehouse receipts decreased by 0.40% [3].

-------------------- 商品研究 -------------------- [Table_ReportType] 煤焦早报 ----------------- 期 走势评级： 焦炭——震荡 焦煤——震荡偏弱 刘开友—黑色研究员 从业资格证号：F03087895 投资咨询证号：Z0019509 联系电话：0571-28132535 邮箱：liukaiyou@cindasc.com 信达期货股份有限公司 CINDAFUTURESCO.LTD 杭州市萧山区钱江世纪城天人大厦19-20楼 邮编：311200 焦煤成交遇冷，空头再度加仓，短期观望 报告日期： [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 5 月 23 日 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 相关资讯： 焦煤： 现货下调，期货下行。蒙 5#主焦煤报 970 元/吨(-0)。活跃合约报 827.5 元/吨(-14.5)。 基差 162.5 元/吨(+14.5)，9-1 月差-16.5 元/吨（-2）。 矿山开工小幅回落，焦企开工持平。523 家矿山开工率报 89.26%（-0.66），110 家 洗煤厂开工率报 62.0 ...

期货研究报告 商品研究 [Table_ReportType] 镍不锈钢早报 走势评级： 镍——滚动做空 不锈钢——观望 楼家豪 从业资格证号：F3080463 投资咨询证号：Z0018424 联系电话：0571-28132615 邮箱：loujiahao@cindasc.com 信达期货有限公司 CINDAFUTURESCO.LTD 杭州市萧山区钱江世纪城天人大厦19-20楼 邮编：311200 全固态电池新标准出台 三元需求或有上升 [Table_ReportDate] 报告日期： 2025 年 5 月 23 日 报告内容摘要: [Table_S 宏观&行业消息： ummary] 【全固态电池新标准出台 解决行业界定模糊、测试方法 缺失等问题】中国汽车工程学会正式发布《全固态电池判定方法》团体标 准，首次明确了全固态电池的定义，解决了行业界定模糊、测试方法缺失 等问题，为技术升级和产业化应用奠定基础。新标准中，"全固态电池" 要求离子传递必须完全通过固体电解质实现，与混合固液电解质电池形成 严格的技术分界。这一团标的核心研究点为基于失重率的液态物质含量试 验方法，即通过真空加热测试失重率，当样品目视无液体且 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Coke: Oscillation [1] - Coking coal: Oscillation with a downward bias [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The economic data in April shows that the number of cities with rising real - estate prices has decreased, and the time for housing prices to bottom out has been postponed again. Industrial added - value has declined compared to March, and the social financing structure is mainly supported by bills and government bonds, with the financing demand of the real economy decreasing. However, the government's leverage increase continues, and subsequent fiscal policies may bring surprises [4]. - For coking coal, supply is the biggest negative factor. Domestic coking coal mine production has slightly declined but remains at a high level for the year, and mine coking coal inventories are accelerating. For coke, cost and downstream demand are decisive factors. After the continuous over - expected increase in hot metal production, there was a slight decline this week, and the first round of spot price cuts for coke has been implemented. Without obvious signs of crude steel production cuts and fiscal policy efforts, coal and coke are likely to maintain a weak oscillation pattern [5]. - Fundamentally, the short - term supply and demand of coal and coke have no obvious changes and remain weak. As the basis and monthly spread strengthen, the resistance to further decline of the 09 contract will increase. The potential downward space for coking coal is about 100, and for coke is about 140, so chasing short positions is not cost - effective. It is recommended to hold a small long position in the J09 contract and add positions after confirming the bottom [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Coking Coal 3.1.1 Related Information - Spot prices have been lowered, and futures prices have continued to decline. The price of Mongolian 5 main coking coal is reported at 970 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the active contract is reported at 842 yuan/ton (+3.5). The basis is 148 yuan/ton (-3.5), and the 9 - 1 monthly spread is - 14.5 yuan/ton (-16.5) [1]. 3.1.2 Supply and Demand - Mine production has slightly declined, and coking enterprise production has remained flat. The production rate of 523 mines is reported at 89.26% (-0.66), the production rate of 110 coal washing plants is reported at 62.08% (-0.34), and the production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is reported at 75.23% (+0.18) [2]. 3.1.3 Inventory - Upstream inventories have increased, and downstream inventories have decreased. The coking coal inventory of 523 mines is reported at 4.1045 million tons (+200,200 tons), the coking coal inventory of coal washing plants is 2.0326 million tons (+59,800 tons), the inventory of 247 steel mills is 7.9121 million tons (+40,000 tons), the inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 7.5256 million tons (-226,100 tons), and the port inventory is 3.0609 million tons (+82,800 tons) [2]. 3.2 Coke 3.2.1 Related Information - The first round of spot price cuts has been implemented, and futures prices have oscillated downward. The price of quasi - first - grade coke at Tianjin Port is reported at 1390 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the active contract is reported at 1417.5 yuan/ton (+10). The basis is 78.37 yuan/ton (-10), and the 9 - 1 monthly spread is - 27 yuan/ton (+3) [3]. 3.2.2 Supply and Demand - Supply has remained flat, and demand may have reached its peak. The production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is reported at 75.23% (+0.18). The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is reported at 91.76% (-0.33), and the daily average hot metal output is 2.4477 million tons (-87,000 tons) [3]. 3.2.3 Inventory - Upstream inventories have remained flat, and downstream inventories have decreased. The inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 65,460 tons (+370 tons), the inventory of 247 steel mills is 663,800 tons (-7,230 tons), and the port inventory is 225,110 tons (-3,970 tons) [3]. 3.3 Strategy Recommendations - At present, the economic data in April shows that the real - estate market is still in the process of bottom - seeking, and the real economy's financing demand is weak. However, government leverage increase continues, and fiscal policies may bring positive effects. In the case of super - expected positive news from the Sino - US tariff negotiation, the black sector still shows a weak trend. Supply - side production cuts and fiscal policies to boost domestic demand are what the market is most looking forward to [4]. - In the short term, it is recommended to hold a small long position in the J09 contract and add positions after confirming the bottom. The potential downward space for coking coal is about 100, and for coke is about 140, so chasing short positions is not cost - effective [5].

商品研究 | 走势评级: | 白糖 | 震荡 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 棉花 | 震荡 | 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 期货研究报告 遭遇技术阻力，棉花短期承压 [T报ab告le日_R期ep：ortDate] 2025-05-22 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 白糖：由于糖料种植的经济效益显著，加上国家政策和制糖企业的积极支 持，农民的种植积极性有所提升，导致糖料种植面积稳步增长。然而，广西 早期的干旱天气对宿根甘蔗的出苗和新植甘蔗的种植产生了不利影响，从而 限制了食糖产量的增长。食糖消费量预期保持平稳或略有增加，食糖的供需 缺口基本稳定，进口量预期维持在 500 万吨不变。短期观望为主 软商品日报 走势评级： 白糖——震荡 棉花——震荡 棉花：新疆的棉花目标价格补贴政策保持稳定，棉农的种植积极性较高， 种植面积略有增加；而内地棉区由于比较效益低和机械化推广难度大等因 素，种植面积持续下降。在棉花播种和出苗期间，主要产区的 ...