商品研究 | 走势评级: | 白糖 | 震荡 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 棉花- | 震荡 | 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 期货研究报告 受谷物走强带动，软商品有所支撑 [T报ab告le日_R期ep：ortDate] 2025-05-21 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 白糖：由于糖料种植的经济效益显著，加上国家政策和制糖企业的积极支 持，农民的种植积极性有所提升，导致糖料种植面积稳步增长。然而，广西 早期的干旱天气对宿根甘蔗的出苗和新植甘蔗的种植产生了不利影响，从而 限制了食糖产量的增长。食糖消费量预期保持平稳或略有增加，食糖的供需 缺口基本稳定，进口量预期维持在 500 万吨不变。短期观望为主 软商品日报 走势评级： 白糖——震荡 棉花——震荡 棉花：新疆的棉花目标价格补贴政策保持稳定，棉农的种植积极性较高， 种植面积略有增加；而内地棉区由于比较效益低和机械化推广难度大等因 素，种植面积持续下降。在棉花播种和出苗期间，主要 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend rating for coke is "sideways", and for coking coal is "sideways with a weak bias" [1] Core Viewpoints - The economic data in April shows that the number of cities with rising real - estate prices has decreased, and the time for housing prices to bottom out has been postponed again. Industrial added - value has declined, and the financing demand of the real economy has decreased. However, the government's leverage increase continues, and subsequent fiscal policies may bring surprises [4] - For coking coal, supply is the biggest negative factor. For coke, cost and downstream demand are decisive. The iron - water output has declined slightly this week, and the first - round price cut for coke spot has been implemented. Without obvious signs of crude - steel production cuts and fiscal - policy stimulus, coal and coke are likely to maintain a weak and sideways pattern [5] - In the short term, coal and coke are in a downward trend, but as the basis and spread strengthen, the resistance to further decline of the 09 contract will increase. It is not cost - effective to chase short positions. It is recommended to hold a small long position in the J09 contract and add positions after confirming the bottom [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal 1. Supply and Demand - Domestic coking - coal mine operating rates have declined slightly but remain at a high level for the year. The productivity of 230 independent coking enterprises is 75.23% (+0.18), and the capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is 91.76% (-0.33), with the daily average iron - water output at 244.77 tons (-0.87) [2][3] 2. Inventory - Upstream inventories are accumulating, and downstream inventories are decreasing. The refined - coal inventory of 523 mines is 410.45 million tons (+20.02), the refined - coal inventory of coal - washing plants is 203.26 million tons (+5.98), the inventory of 247 steel mills is 791.21 million tons (+4), the inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 752.56 million tons (-22.61), and the port inventory is 306.09 million tons (+8.28) [2] 3. Spot Price and Spread - The spot price of Mongolian 5 coking coal is 970 yuan/ton (-45), the active contract is 838.5 yuan/ton (-6.5), the basis is 151.5 yuan/ton (-38.5), and the 9 - 1 spread is - 12.5 yuan/ton (-2) [1] Coke 1. Supply and Demand - The productivity of 230 independent coking enterprises is 75.23% (+0.18). The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is 91.76% (-0.33), and the daily average iron - water output is 244.77 tons (-0.87) [3] 2. Inventory - The inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 65.46 million tons (+0.37), the inventory of 247 steel mills is 663.8 million tons (-7.23), and the port inventory is 225.11 million tons (-3.97) [3] 3. Spot Price, Spread and Profit - The price of quasi - first - grade coke at Tianjin Port is 1390 yuan/ton (-0), the active contract is 1407.5 yuan/ton (-20.5), the basis is 88.37 yuan/ton (+20.5), and the 9 - 1 spread is - 30 yuan/ton (-3.5) [3]

期货研究报告 商品研究 [Table_ReportType] 镍不锈钢早报 走势评级： 镍——滚动做空 不锈钢——观望 楼家豪 从业资格证号：F3080463 投资咨询证号：Z0018424 联系电话：0571-28132615 邮箱：loujiahao@cindasc.com 信达期货有限公司 CINDAFUTURESCO.LTD 杭州市萧山区钱江世纪城天人大厦19-20楼 邮编：311200 关税问题仍有反复 矿端季节性显现 报告内容摘要: [Table_ReportDate] 报告日期： 2025 年 5 月 20 日 [Table_S 宏观&行业消息： ummary] 【关税不确定性仍然挥之不去】近期，美国相继与英国、 中国达成贸易协议，令全球贸易紧张局势大幅降温。然而，围绕关税的不 确定性仍然挥之不去。当地时间周日，美国财长贝森特警告称，美国的一 些贸易伙伴可能很快会面临关税税率再次大幅上调。贝森特在接受媒体采 访时表示，如果各国在 7 月初关税暂缓期到期前不"真诚地"进行谈判， 且未能达成贸易协议，关税税率将很快恢复到"解放日"水平。 供应：菲律宾走出雨季，发运量上升季的节性终于显现，矿价回落，矿 ...

信达期货股份有限公司 CINDAFUTURESCO.LTD 杭州市萧山区钱江世纪城天人大厦19-20楼 邮编：311200 -------------------- 商品研究 -------------------- [Table_ReportType] 煤焦早报 ----------------- 期 走势评级： 焦炭——震荡 焦煤——震荡偏弱 刘开友—黑色研究员 从业资格证号：F03087895 投资咨询证号：Z0019509 联系电话：0571-28132535 邮箱：liukaiyou@cindasc.com 房价环比走弱，煤焦下行 报告日期： [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 5 月 20 日 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 相关资讯： 焦煤： 现货下调，期货持续下行。蒙 5#主焦煤报 1015 元/吨(-0)。活跃合约报 845 元/吨(- 7.5)。基差 190 元/吨(+7.5)，9-1 月差-10.5 元/吨（+11）。 矿山开工小幅回落，焦企开工持平。523 家矿山开工率报 89.26%（-0.66），110 家 洗煤厂开工率报 62.08%(-0.34) ...

张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 期货研究报告 受供应前景拖累，原糖短线承压 商品研究 | 走势评级: | 白糖 | 震荡 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 棉花- | 震荡 | [T报ab告le日_R期ep：ortDate] 2025-05-20 [Table_Summary] 白糖：由于糖料种植的经济效益显著，加上国家政策和制糖企业的积极支 持，农民的种植积极性有所提升，导致糖料种植面积稳步增长。然而，广西 早期的干旱天气对宿根甘蔗的出苗和新植甘蔗的种植产生了不利影响，从而 限制了食糖产量的增长。食糖消费量预期保持平稳或略有增加，食糖的供需 缺口基本稳定，进口量预期维持在 500 万吨不变。短期观望为主 软商品日报 走势评级： 白糖——震荡 棉花——震荡 棉花：新疆的棉花目标价格补贴政策保持稳定，棉农的种植积极性较高， 种植面积略有增加；而内地棉区由于比较效益低和机械化推广难度大等因 素，种植面积持续下降。在棉花播种和出苗期间，主要产区的气候条件良好 ...

棉花：新疆的棉花目标价格补贴政策保持稳定，棉农的种植积极性较高， 种植面积略有增加；而内地棉区由于比较效益低和机械化推广难度大等因 素，种植面积持续下降。在棉花播种和出苗期间，主要产区的气候条件良好， 预计单产为每公顷 2172 公斤（每亩 144.8 公斤），与去年持平。棉花总产 量预计为 625 万吨，比去年增加 1.4%。受美国过度征收关税的影响，棉花 消费预期偏弱，但未来仍存在一定的不确定性。预计新年度的棉花消费量为 740 万吨，较去年小幅减少 20 万吨，进口量也下调至 140 万吨，减少 10 万吨。短期观望。 信达期货有限公司 CINDAFUTURESCO.LTD 杭州市萧山区钱江世纪城天人大厦19-20楼 邮编：311200 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款 1 商品研究 | 走势评级: | 白糖 | 震荡 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 棉花- | 震荡 | 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 期货研究报告 美农数据压制预期，棉价短线承压 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The trend rating for coke is "sideways", and for coking coal is "sideways with a weak bias" [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The total social financing in April still increased year - on - year, but the structure was mainly supported by bills and government bonds, with the financing demand of the real economy declining. The external uncertainty caused by the US tariff increase in April may have reduced corporate risk appetite. However, the government's leverage increase continues, and subsequent fiscal policies may bring surprises [4] - After the Sino - US tariff negotiation, the black sector showed a complex trend. In the absence of substantial benefits from supply - side production restrictions and fiscal policies to boost domestic demand, the black sector is likely to remain in wide - range fluctuations [4] - For coking coal, the supply pressure from imported coal persists, mines are not reducing production, and the demand from coke enterprises has weakened again. For coke, the first round of price cuts by steel mills has not been implemented, and the supply - demand gap has widened again, but the demand has a strong short - term reality and weak long - term expectations [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Coking Coal - **Spot and Futures**: The spot price of coking coal is weakly stable, and the futures are moving sideways with a weak bias. The price of Mongolian 5 prime coking coal is 1015 yuan/ton, the active contract is 883 yuan/ton, the basis is 152 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 month spread is - 16 yuan/ton [2] - **Supply**: The operating rate of 523 mines is 89.92% (+0.18), and the operating rate of 110 coal washing plants is 62.42% (-0.55) [2] - **Inventory**: Upstream inventory is accumulating, and downstream inventory is decreasing. The inventory of 523 mines is 390.43 million tons (+31.39), the inventory of coal washing plants is 197.28 million tons (+3.39), the inventory of 247 steel mills is 787.21 million tons (+2.42), the inventory of 230 coke enterprises is 775.17 million tons (-35.11), and the port inventory is 397.81 million tons (-13.97) [2] 3.2 Coke - **Spot and Futures**: The first round of spot price cuts by steel mills has not been implemented, and the futures are moving sideways with a weak bias. The price of quasi - first - grade coke at Tianjin Port is 1440 yuan/ton, the active contract is 1472 yuan/ton, the basis is 78.22 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 month spread is - 26.5 yuan/ton [3] - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is decreasing, and demand is continuously increasing. The production rate of 230 independent coke enterprises is 75.05% (-0.38), the capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is 91.6% (+1.45), and the daily average pig iron output is 2.4564 million tons (+0.22) [3] - **Inventory**: The inventory across the entire industrial chain is decreasing. The inventory of 230 coke enterprises is 65.09 million tons (-1.97), the inventory of 247 steel mills is 671.03 million tons (-4.19), and the port inventory is 229.08 million tons (-9.04) [3] 3.3 Strategy Recommendations - In the absence of substantial benefits from supply - side production restrictions and fiscal policies to boost domestic demand, the black sector is likely to remain in wide - range fluctuations. It is recommended to hold a small long position in the J09 contract and closely monitor the rebound strength, and add positions after confirming the bottom [4][5]

商品研究 | 走势评级: | 白糖 | 震荡 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 棉花 | 震荡 | | 数据速览 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 外盘报价 | | 2025-05-14 | 2025-05-15 | 涨跌幅 | | | 美白糖（美元） | 18.08 | 17.66 | -2.32% | | | 美棉花（美元） | 65.55 | 65.49 | -0.09% | | 现货价格 | | 2025-05-14 | 2025-05-15 | 涨跌幅 | | | 白糖（南宁） | 6185.0 | 6165.0 | -0.32% | | | 白糖（昆明） | 5995.0 | 6000.0 | 0.08% | | | 棉花指数 328 | 3281 | 3280 | 0.28% | | | 棉花（新疆） | 14350.0 | 14450.0 | 0.70% | | 价差速览 | | 2025-05-14 | 2025-05-15 | 涨跌幅 | | | SR01-05 | -321.0 | -320.0 | -0.31% | ...

其二，参考 2024 年 11 月 7 日与 2025 年 3 月 14 日，当前强预期弱现实阶段，上证 50 单日强攻后行情持续性往往不强，短期可能需要防范市场情绪见顶回落的风险。 1） 优化基金运营模式，建立健全基金公司收入报酬与投资者回报绑定机制。如，设 立浮动管理费机制，引导管理规模居前的行业头部机构发行此类基金数量不低于 其主动管理权益类基金发行数量的 60%；降低投资者成本，调降认申购费和销售 服务费，引导下调大规模指数基金、货币市场基金的管理费率与托管费率等。 2） 完善行业考核评价制度，强化长周期考核与激励约束机制。如，要求基金公司建 立以基金投资收益为核心的考核体系，降低规模排名、收入利润等指标权重；对 高管和基金经理的考核分别设定投资收益指标权重，并实施长周期考核机制，三 年以上中长期收益考核权重不低于 80%等。 3） 大力提升公募基金权益投资规模与占比。如，在基金公司监管分类评价中显著提 升权益类基金相关指标权重，制定公募基金参与金融衍生品投资指引；大力发展 场内外指数基金，研究创设场外宽基指数基金试点产品等。 4） 推进强监管防风险促高质量发展等… 5 月 14 日，大金融板块大涨带 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the stock index is "sideways" [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Despite numerous recent macro - events, the stock index showed a lackluster response. The four major broad - based indices had a pattern of rising and then falling, indicating significant short - term technical pressure. Although the progress of Sino - US talks this week exceeded market expectations, the market's one - sided rally sentiment was limited. It is expected that a retracement is needed before a second upward push. The current market situation can be compared to the second half of 2019, and it is in the first stage of Sino - US negotiations, with the trend remaining a sideways market. In the medium - term, there is a bullish outlook, waiting for a game - changing factor like the 2020 pandemic. [3] - In terms of portfolio, compared with the previous trade war period, China's policies have been pre - emptively implemented this time, and the easing measures such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts are more substantial. It is expected that the small - cap style will be dominant, and investors can participate in the IM - IF spread when the price is low. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Stock Market Information - The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that China took counter - measures including tariff and non - tariff measures in response to the US's unreasonable tariff hikes on China under the pretext of fentanyl, and these counter - measures remain in effect. [4] - As of the end of April, China's social financing scale stock increased by 8.7% year - on - year, and the M2 balance increased by 8% year - on - year, with the growth rate accelerating compared to the previous month. In the first four months of this year, RMB loans increased by 10.06 trillion yuan, and the increment of social financing scale was 16.34 trillion yuan. [4] 3.2 Stock Index盘面 Review 3.2.1 Disk Tracking - In the previous trading day, the A - share market showed a differentiated upward trend. Among the four major indices, the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index rose 1.69%, the CSI 300 Index rose 1.21%, the CSI 500 Index rose 0.30%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.15%. In terms of sectors, insurance (+5.15%) and shipping (+4.94%) led the gains, while aerospace and military industry (- 0.82%) and construction machinery (- 1.90%) lagged. More than 2300 stocks rose, and 91 stocks hit the daily limit, with a relatively poor profit - making effect. [4] 3.2.2 Technical Tracking - After the previous oversold rebound, the daily - level technical indicators of the stock index have generally recovered, while the weekly and monthly indicators still show a sideways trend. [4] 3.2.3 Fund Flow - The trading volume of the A - share market increased slightly, remaining above 1.3 trillion yuan in the previous trading day. Market sentiment remained cautious. The sustainability of a short - term one - sided rally is questionable, and the trading volume in the next two days needs to be observed. [4] 3.3 Core Logic Summary and Operation Suggestions 3.3.1 Core Logic Summary - The current market situation is similar to the second half of 2019, in the first stage of Sino - US negotiations, with a sideways trend. In the medium - term, it is bullish, waiting for a game - changing factor. The small - cap style is expected to be dominant. [3] 3.3.2 Operation Suggestions - **Futures**: Due to the under - expected speculative sentiment, investors should respect the technical pressure. In the short - term, they can either wait and see or do intraday rolling long on IM, and increase the position appropriately when there is a sharp decline. They can also participate in the IM - IF spread when the price is low. [3] - **Options**: The implied volatility of options rose and then fell yesterday. The current - month IV of the CSI 300 is around 14 - 15%. Given the low short - term volatility and the rapidly changing news, investors can continue to bet on short - term straddles, but should pay attention to short - term positions. [3]