| 走势评级: | 白糖 | 震荡 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 棉花- | 震荡 | 商品研究 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 期货研究报告 订单增幅有限，棉花短线承压 [T报ab告le日_R期ep：ortDate] 2025-06-05 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 白糖：由于糖料种植的经济效益显著，加上国家政策和制糖企业的积极支 持，农民的种植积极性有所提升，导致糖料种植面积稳步增长。然而，广西 早期的干旱天气对宿根甘蔗的出苗和新植甘蔗的种植产生了不利影响，从而 限制了食糖产量的增长。食糖消费量预期保持平稳或略有增加，食糖的供需 缺口基本稳定，进口量预期维持在 500 万吨不变。短期观望为主 软商品日报 走势评级： 白糖——震荡 棉花——震荡 棉花：新疆的棉花目标价格补贴政策保持稳定，棉农的种植积极性较高， 种植面积略有增加；而内地棉区由于比较效益低和机械化推广难度大等因 素，种植面积持续下降。在棉花播种和出苗期间，主要产区 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Nickel: Rolling short [1] - Stainless steel: Hold [1] - Zinc: Bearish outlook [3] Core Views Nickel and Stainless Steel - The Philippines has emerged from the rainy season, leading to increased nickel ore arrivals and shipments, causing a seasonal decline in nickel ore prices and reduced costs across the nickel industry chain [1]. - Domestic nickel - iron production has slightly decreased due to negative profit margins, but Indonesian nickel - iron production has grown rapidly, with a year - on - year increase of over 30% and a month - on - month increase of over 10%. Total nickel - iron supply remains in surplus [1]. - The cost of nickel in the nickel - bean - to - nickel - sulfate process is around 127,000 yuan, and demand support from downstream nickel - sulfate costs is about 126,700 yuan/ton. The profit threshold for external procurement manufacturers has dropped to 133,000 yuan/ton [2]. - Nickel - iron and stainless - steel integrated manufacturers could use nickel - iron profits to offset stainless - steel losses. However, since May, nickel - iron profits have shrunk rapidly, potentially affecting stainless - steel production. Overall demand is weak [2]. - The main operating range for nickel is between 118,000 and 133,000 yuan, with a core range of 120,000 - 127,000 yuan [2]. Zinc - From January to April, the revenue of 11,945 large - scale non - ferrous metal industrial enterprises increased by 18.0% year - on - year, and the revenue profit margin was 4.15%, up 0.39 percentage points from the previous year [4]. - During the narrow - range zinc price fluctuations, miners' per - ton profit remained around 4,000 yuan/ton. Smelters can achieve profitability with by - products. Overall zinc supply is loose [4]. - Galvanized production capacity has expanded, but utilization and output are low, and manufacturers' production enthusiasm is weak. Zinc oxide production is driven by seasonal demand, with limited upside. Die - casting alloy production has increased, but downstream demand is expected to weaken. Zinc demand has some resilience but is difficult to improve significantly in the short term [5]. - The impact of tariffs has temporarily subsided. Short - term supply is stable with a slight increase, the demand peak season has passed, and manufacturers are pessimistic about terminal demand. Overall, a bearish view is taken [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Macro Indicators - The report presents data on exchange rates (nominal US dollar index: broad, USDCNY spot exchange rate) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average [7][8][14] 2. Spot Premiums and Discounts - It shows spot premiums and discounts for various metals such as nickel, zinc, lead, and stainless steel, including domestic and LME data [9][11][15][22][24] 3. Spread Analysis - Analyzes spreads such as the monthly spread of lead and zinc futures, the spread between high - nickel iron and electrolytic nickel, and the spread between nickel sulfate and electrolytic nickel [27][28][33][35] 4. Inventory Analysis - Displays inventory data for lead, zinc, and nickel in the Shanghai Futures Exchange and LME, including seasonal inventory charts [36][38][40] 5. Profit - Presents profit data for domestic zinc smelters, high - nickel iron production, nickel sulfate production, and stainless - steel production [49][51][53][55] 6. Import Profit and Loss - Shows import profit and loss data for lead, zinc, and nickel, as well as the Shanghai - London ratio for these metals [57][59][61]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - In China, the economy turned downward in April due to tariff impacts, but the decline slowed in May. With the agreement reached in the Geneva economic and trade talks between China and the United States, economic confidence has recovered. The government has ample resources and policies are expected to be implemented intensively in June [1][10][15]. - Abroad, tariff and debt issues continue to disrupt the market. Attention should be paid to whether the tariffs based on IEEPA can remain in effect. Short - term debt is not a problem, but the pressure lies in the medium - and long - term [2][27][31]. - For major asset classes, stocks will fluctuate within a range, bonds will fluctuate while waiting for an opportunity for interest rates to decline, the RMB exchange rate will fluctuate between 7.15 - 7.36, and gold will fluctuate within a range in the short term [3][32][39] Summaries by Directory I. Domestic: Waiting for Policy Acceleration (1) April economic downturn, slower decline in May - Most economic data showed a decline in April. In May, the manufacturing PMI rose 0.5 percentage points to 49.5%, but was still below the boom - bust line, indicating that the economy was still in a downward trend, but at a slower pace. From the perspective of leading monetary indicators, the economy is still at the bottom [1][10][11]. (2) The government has more measures in reserve - Fiscal spending is tilted towards people's livelihoods. The expenditure of public finance and government - managed funds is at a high level in history, but the expenditure on infrastructure has decreased. There are still large balances of special bonds and ultra - long - term special treasury bonds to be issued, and government deposits are much higher than in previous years. Most policies to stabilize employment and the economy are expected to be implemented by the end of June [15][16][23]. II. Abroad: Tariffs and Debt (1) Focus on whether the tariffs based on IEEPA can remain in effect - Tariff disruptions continue, but their impact on the market is gradually weakening. The court's decision on the legality of Trump's tariff measures needs attention. If the appeal fails, Trump may try other ways to impose tariffs, which could have a long - term impact on the US economy [27][28][29]. (2) Short - term debt is not a problem - The US has a large short - term debt rolling pressure, but it is unlikely that short - term debt cannot be renewed. The Fed has the SRF tool. The medium - and long - term debt pressure is controllable in the near term, and the pressure lies in the medium - and long - term [31]. III. Outlook for Major Asset Classes (1) Stocks: Range - bound fluctuations - Due to the smooth Geneva economic and trade talks, the overall tariff situation has returned to that on April 5. The export - rush effect in May is expected to continue, but economic uncertainties are still large, and the macro - economy continues to face pressure. The stock market is likely to fluctuate within a range [32]. (2) Bonds: Fluctuating while waiting for an opportunity for interest rates to decline - A full - process interest rate cut has been implemented. Future reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts are likely. However, in the short term, the bond market is likely to remain volatile due to high capital interest rates, supply pressure, and potential deposit transfer issues [35]. (3) RMB exchange rate: Range - bound fluctuations - The weakening US dollar index drives the RMB to appreciate, but the appreciation is expected to be limited. The RMB exchange rate is expected to fluctuate between 7.15 - 7.36 [39]. (4) Gold: Short - term range - bound fluctuations - Tariff and debt issues have pushed down the US dollar index and driven up the gold price. However, as these issues are not acute at present, gold is likely to fluctuate within a range in the short term [42].

Report Investment Ratings - Sugar: Sideways [1] - Cotton: Sideways [1] Core Views - Sugar: Sugarcane planting area has increased due to economic benefits, policy support, and enterprise encouragement, but early drought in Guangxi limited sugar production growth. Sugar consumption is expected to remain stable or slightly increase, and the supply - demand gap is basically stable with an expected import volume of 5 million tons. Short - term: wait - and - see [1] - Cotton: The cotton target price subsidy policy in Xinjiang is stable, increasing farmers' planting enthusiasm and slightly expanding the planting area, while the inland area has a decreasing planting area. The climate during sowing and emergence was good, with an expected yield per hectare of 2172 kg (144.8 kg per mu), the same as last year. Total production is expected to be 6.25 million tons, a 1.4% increase. Cotton consumption is expected to be weak due to US tariffs, with an expected consumption of 7.4 million tons (200,000 tons less than last year) and an import volume of 1.4 million tons (100,000 tons less) [1] Data Summary Price and Spread Changes - **External Quotes**: US sugar rose 0.47% from $16.87 to $16.95; US cotton fell 0.30% from $66.18 to $65.98 [3] - **Spot Prices**: Sugar in Nanning fell 0.41% from 6115 to 6090; in Kunming, it rose 0.08% from 5945 to 5950. The cotton index 328 fell 0.11% from 3281 to 3280; cotton in Xinjiang remained unchanged at 14450 [3] - **Spreads**: Sugar and cotton spreads showed different degrees of decline, except for CF09 - 01 which remained unchanged. Sugar and cotton basis had various changes, with sugar basis generally rising [3] Other Data - **Import Prices**: The cotton cotlookA remained unchanged at 77.45 [3] - **Profit Margins**: The sugar import profit remained unchanged at 1513 [3] - **Options**: Implied and historical volatilities of sugar and cotton options are provided [3] - **Warehouse Receipts**: Sugar warehouse receipts decreased 0.93% from 31020 to 30731; cotton decreased 0.36% from 11102 to 11062 [3] Company Introduction - The report is produced by Cinda Futures Co., Ltd., a large - scale domestic futures company with a registered capital of 600 million RMB, wholly - owned by Cinda Securities Co., Ltd. It has memberships in multiple futures exchanges [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend rating for coke is "shock weakening", and for coking coal is also "shock weakening" [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The impact of tariffs will gradually weaken, and the focus will return to the domestic economic situation. The market is looking forward to supply - side production restrictions and fiscal policies to boost domestic demand. For coking coal, supply contraction due to environmental inspections and safety production, but high - level Mongolian coal imports still pose pressure. For coke, cost and downstream demand are decisive factors, with supply remaining flat and demand peaking and falling [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Related Information - In May, China's manufacturing PMI index was 49.5, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, mainly due to the repair of export orders after the China - US economic and trade agreement in Geneva [2] 3.2 Coking Coal 3.2.1 Spot and Futures - The price of Mongolian 5 prime coking coal was reported at 918 yuan/ton (unchanged), the active contract was reported at 719 yuan/ton (down 7 yuan), the basis was 219 yuan/ton (up 7 yuan), and the 9 - 1 month spread was - 16.5 yuan/ton (up 5 yuan) [2] 3.2.2 Supply - The operating rate of 523 mines was reported at 85.49% (down 0.81%), and the operating rate of 110 coal washing plants was reported at 61.55% (down 0.81%) [2] 3.2.3 Inventory - The clean coal inventory of 523 mines was reported at 4.7303 million tons (up 255,000 tons), the clean coal inventory of coal washing plants was 2.2207 million tons (up 73,300 tons), the inventory of 247 steel mills was 7.8679 million tons (down 119,600 tons), the inventory of 230 coking enterprises was 7.1666 million tons (down 213,000 tons), and the port inventory was 3.0309 million tons (up 15,300 tons) [3] 3.3 Coke 3.3.1 Spot and Futures - The price of quasi - first - grade coke at Tianjin Port was reported at 1,340 yuan/ton (unchanged), the second - round price cut was fully implemented, the active contract was reported at 1,299 yuan/ton (down 9 yuan), the basis was 141.86 yuan/ton (up 9 yuan), and the 9 - 1 month spread was - 23.5 yuan/ton (unchanged) [4] 3.3.2 Supply and Demand - The productivity of 230 independent coking enterprises was reported at 75.08% (down 0.1%), the capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was reported at 90.69% (down 0.63%), and the daily average pig iron output was 2.4191 million tons (down 16,900 tons) [4] 3.3.3 Inventory - The inventory of 230 coking enterprises was 78,330 tons (up 5,230 tons), the inventory of 247 steel mills was 654,930 tons (down 5,660 tons), and the port inventory was 217,180 tons (down 5,910 tons) [4] 3.4 Strategy Suggestions - In the short term, it is recommended to hold J09 long positions lightly and add positions after confirming the bottom. For coking coal, if the mine capacity utilization rate continues to decline, the upstream inventory pressure will gradually ease. For coke, if the cost side does not stabilize, there may be two more rounds of price cuts in June [5][6]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Industrial silicon: Weak [1] - Polysilicon: Sideways [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The supply - side pressure of industrial silicon intensifies during the wet season, and it maintains a downward trend. The polysilicon market is in a bottom - capacity - reduction cycle, and the fundamentals of both industries are currently weak [1][3] - For industrial silicon, the supply - side pressure remains due to the expected resumption of production in the southwest and northwest regions. The demand from downstream polysilicon is weakening, the demand from organic silicon is marginally stabilizing, and the demand from silicon - aluminum alloy is stable. The inventory shows no obvious signs of reduction, so it should be treated bearishly [2][4] - For polysilicon, the production has bottomed out and stabilized, with some resumption of production expected in the southwest. The terminal installation is marginally weakening, and inventory reduction is slow. It is recommended to operate within the range of 35,000 - 40,000 [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon Supply - side - The spot price of East China non - oxygen - blown 553 silicon is 8,300 - 8,400 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous trading day. In May, the industrial silicon output dropped to 290,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from April. Xinjiang reduced production by about 10,000 tons. In the southwest, Sichuan has resumed production to about 15,000 tons, and Yunnan is still operating at a low level, with expected increased operation in June. Some Xinjiang manufacturers have the expectation of resuming production again, and the supply - side pressure persists [2] Downstream Demand - side - Polysilicon: In April, the polysilicon output stabilized at 95,000 tons. As the photovoltaic rush - installation tide nears its end, the demand for polysilicon in the industrial chain is expected to decline, and there is a possibility of further production cuts, leading to a marginal weakening of the demand for industrial silicon [2] - Organic silicon: Monomer manufacturers have initiated joint production cuts. Recently, the DMC inventory has significantly decreased, the DMC price has stabilized and rebounded, and the production - cut effect is evident. The demand for industrial silicon shows marginal signs of stabilization [2] - Alloy silicon: The price is stable, but the consumption is low and cannot support the market. The demand for industrial silicon remains stable [2] Inventory - The inventory pressure is high. This week's inventory increased by 7,000 tons compared to last week, and the current social inventory is reported at 589,000 tons [2] Polysilicon Supply - side - The production cuts of polysilicon have basically been priced in, and the market has returned to fundamental logic. In April, the polysilicon output slightly dropped to 95,000 tons. Currently, polysilicon manufacturers are still producing according to quotas. With the weakening downstream demand expectation, the output will not fluctuate significantly. As the southwest wet season approaches, some manufacturers have the expectation of resuming production, but limited by the polysilicon price, the output is expected to grow slowly [3] Downstream Demand - side - Silicon wafers: There is a trend of production cuts. Currently, they are mainly digesting polysilicon inventory. The silicon wafer price has slightly weakened, and the inventory is being reduced rapidly [3] - Solar cells and modules: The production schedules have also decreased. The rush - installation period has ended. With the gradual withdrawal of photovoltaic subsidies, the photovoltaic industry will accelerate reshuffling, and the demand for polysilicon will decline significantly [3] Inventory - The current polysilicon inventory is about 250,000 tons, and the entire industrial - chain inventory is equivalent to nearly 500,000 tons. The inventory - reduction pressure is high [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term: Bearish [1] - Medium - term: Sideways [1] - Long - term: Sideways [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - In May, industrial silicon prices dropped significantly. The main contract 2507 fell by 16.6%. With the approaching of the wet season in the southwest region and the复产 plans of some Xinjiang manufacturers, supply pressure increased. Meanwhile, downstream demand was weak, and tariff issues were uncertain, leading to continuous price drops and a record low of 7130 points [1]. - The fundamentals of industrial silicon remain weak. Supply is expected to increase, downstream demand is generally stable or weak, and high inventory pressure suppresses prices. The key points in June are whether price drops can trigger large - scale production cuts and whether southwest region's复产 will be postponed [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In May, the industrial silicon market declined. Organic silicon manufacturers continued to cut production, polysilicon was affected by the under - expected 430 installation rush, and Trump's tariff policy was uncertain. The price hit a new low of 7130 yuan/ton. Spot prices also decreased: non - oxygen - blown 553 was at 8350 yuan/ton, down 900 yuan/ton from last month; oxygen - blown 553 was at 8500 yuan/ton, down 900 yuan/ton; 421 was at 10600 yuan/ton, down 500 yuan/ton [7]. 3.2 Fundamentals 3.2.1 Cost - profit - In May, the national cost of industrial silicon decreased slightly. Electricity prices in the southwest region dropped, and the prices of silica, silicon coal, and electrodes also declined. The average loss of industrial silicon producers increased compared to last month. As of the latest data, the average profit of 553 nationwide was about - 2001 yuan/ton [10]. 3.2.2 Supply - In May, the national industrial silicon output was 290,000 tons, about 10,000 tons less than in April, mainly due to production cuts in the northwest region. Xinjiang's output decreased by nearly 10,000 tons. The output in the southwest region remained stable. With the approaching wet season, there are expectations of复产 in the southwest and some northwest manufacturers also have复产 plans. The focus in June is on the scale of southwest region's复产 and Xinjiang's复产 intensity [18]. 3.2.3 Polysilicon - In May, polysilicon prices slightly declined. After the 430 and 531 installation rushes ended, downstream component and battery prices dropped, forcing polysilicon prices down. Polysilicon enterprises are producing according to quotas. With the weakening domestic installation expectations in the second half of the year, downstream silicon wafer manufacturers are expected to cut production and purchase polysilicon as needed. There was a rumor of stockpiling, but its feasibility needs to be discussed. The inventory of polysilicon is close to 260,000 tons, and the destocking pressure is high. The focus in June is on polysilicon output and downstream silicon wafer procurement [23]. 3.2.4 Organic Silicon - In May, organic silicon prices stabilized. The DMC price was 11,500 yuan/ton, with a slight increase at the end of the month. The joint production cuts by organic silicon enterprises have shown initial results, but the over - capacity situation has not improved. Monomer plants and industrial chain enterprises are still in losses, and downstream real estate demand has not improved significantly. In April, the DMC output was 168,500 tons, a 10% year - on - year decrease. Although real estate policies are being promoted, it will take time to have a substantial impact on organic silicon demand, and currently, the demand for industrial silicon is weakening [27]. 3.2.5 Silicon Aluminum Alloy - In May, the prices of silicon aluminum alloy continued to decline, and the operating rate decreased slightly. Terminal demand was average. Since the overall silicon consumption is small, it has little impact on the demand for industrial silicon, and the demand remains stable [32]. 3.2.6 Import and Export - Industrial silicon exports increased slightly. In April 2025, China's metal silicon exports were 60,000 tons, a 1% year - on - year increase but a nearly 9% month - on - month decrease. Affected by the US trade war, exports are expected to decline slightly, and overseas demand is weak [46]. 3.2.7 Inventory - In May, the social inventory of industrial silicon decreased slightly compared to April. As of the latest data, the total social inventory was about 589,000 tons. Although there was some destocking at the end of May, the inventory is still at a high level. With the production cuts in the two major downstream sectors, it is difficult to achieve significant destocking [48].

报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 白糖：由于糖料种植的经济效益显著，加上国家政策和制糖企业的积极支 持，农民的种植积极性有所提升，导致糖料种植面积稳步增长。然而，广西 早期的干旱天气对宿根甘蔗的出苗和新植甘蔗的种植产生了不利影响，从而 限制了食糖产量的增长。食糖消费量预期保持平稳或略有增加，食糖的供需 缺口基本稳定，进口量预期维持在 500 万吨不变。短期观望为主 软商品日报 走势评级： 白糖——震荡 棉花——震荡 棉花：新疆的棉花目标价格补贴政策保持稳定，棉农的种植积极性较高， 种植面积略有增加；而内地棉区由于比较效益低和机械化推广难度大等因 素，种植面积持续下降。在棉花播种和出苗期间，主要产区的气候条件良好， 预计单产为每公顷 2172 公斤（每亩 144.8 公斤），与去年持平。棉花总产 量预计为 625 万吨，比去年增加 1.4%。受美国过度征收关税的影响，棉花 消费预期偏弱，但未来仍存在一定的不确定性。预计新年度的棉花消费量为 740 万吨，较去年小幅减少 20 万吨，进口量也下调至 140 万吨，减少 10 万吨。短期观望。 商品研究 | 走势评级: | 白糖 | 震荡 | | -- ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend rating for coke is "shock weakening", and for coking coal is also "shock weakening" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The impact of tariffs will gradually weaken, and the focus will return to the domestic economic situation. The market is looking forward to supply - side production restrictions and fiscal policies to boost domestic demand. According to the policy - market linkage law in recent years, the market sentiment varies in different quarters [4] - For coking coal, supply is shrinking due to environmental inspections and safety production, but the import pressure from Mongolia remains. The current price has almost reached the cost line of most coal mines, and the downward space is limited. The follow - up focus is on the overall position change [4][5] - For coke, cost and downstream demand are decisive factors. Coke enterprises still have a small profit, supply is flat, demand has peaked, and the second - round price cut has been fully implemented. If the cost side does not stabilize, there may be two more rounds of price cuts in June [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Coking Coal Market Conditions - Spot is weak, and futures are declining. The price of Mongolian 5 main coking coal is 918 yuan/ton, the active contract is 726 yuan/ton, the basis is 212 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 month spread is - 21.5 yuan/ton [1] Supply - Mine and coal washing plant开工率 are falling. The开工率 of 523 mines is 85.49%, and that of 110 coal washing plants is 61.55% [2] Inventory - Upstream inventory is accumulating, and downstream inventory is decreasing. The inventory of 523 mines is 473.03 million tons, that of coal washing plants is 222.07 million tons, that of 247 steel mills is 786.79 million tons, that of 230 coke enterprises is 716.66 million tons, and port inventory is 303.09 million tons [2] Coke Market Conditions - The second - round spot price cut has been implemented, and futures are declining. The price of Tianjin Port quasi - first - grade coke is 1340 yuan/ton, the active contract is 1308 yuan/ton, the basis is 133 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 month spread is - 23.5 yuan/ton [3] Supply and Demand - Supply is flat, and demand has peaked and is falling. The productivity of 230 independent coke enterprises is 75.08%, the capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is 90.69%, and the daily average pig iron output is 241.91 million tons [3] Inventory - Upstream inventory is accumulating, and downstream inventory is decreasing. The inventory of 230 coke enterprises is 78.33 million tons, that of 247 steel mills is 654.93 million tons, and port inventory is 217.18 million tons [3] Strategy Suggestions - Hold J09 long positions lightly and wait to add positions after confirming the bottom [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for coke and coking coal are both "Oscillating Weakly" [1] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The supply of coking coal is starting to contract, and the biggest bearish pressure is loosening. The price of Mongolian coal has continued to decline. The domestic coking coal mine operating rate has fallen from a high level, but the mine's raw coal inventory has not declined due to poor trading. If the mine capacity utilization rate continues to decline, the upstream inventory pressure will gradually ease. For coke, cost and downstream demand are the decisive factors for its future trend. With the continuous decline of coking coal prices, coke enterprises still have a small profit, and the supply remains flat. The pig iron output has been decreasing for two consecutive weeks, indicating that demand has peaked. Under the weakening supply - demand situation, the second - round price cut of coke has been fully implemented, and there is still room for two more rounds of price cuts in the spot market [5] - From the economic data in April, the number of cities with a month - on - month increase in real estate prices has decreased, and the time for housing prices to bottom out has been postponed again. The year - on - year and month - on - month growth rates of industrial added value have both declined to some extent compared with March, and are greatly affected by tariffs. Although the total social financing data still shows a year - on - year increase, in terms of structure, it is mainly supported by bills and government bonds, and the financing demand of the real economy has decreased. The government's leverage increase continues, and subsequent fiscal policies may bring surprises. The market is most looking forward to supply - side production restrictions and fiscal policies to boost domestic demand [4] - The farce of US tariffs has resurfaced. After the court ruled on the 29th that the Trump administration's tariff administrative order was invalid, the White House suspended the judgment through an appeal. There will be a tug - of - war over the tariff policy in the US, and it is difficult to get a final result in the short term. Recently, disturbances on the supply side have gradually increased, but the market has hardly reacted, and the prices of coal and coke have continued to decline. Calculated in the extreme case, the cost of coking coal is about 750, and the cost - effectiveness of short - selling is not high. After the market trend reaches an extreme, capital game is often an important factor determining the market bottoming out, and coking coal is the main battlefield for the long - short game at present [6] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Coking Coal - **Spot and Futures Prices**: The price of Mongolian No. 5 main coking coal is reported at 918 yuan/ton (-2), and the active contract is reported at 759 yuan/ton (-20). The basis is 179 yuan/ton (+18), and the 9 - 1 month spread is -19 yuan/ton (-3) [1] - **Supply - Side Situation**: The mine operation continues to decline, with the operating rate of 523 mines reported at 85.49% (-0.81), and the operating rate of 110 coal washing plants reported at 61.55% (-0.81). The production rate of 230 independent coke enterprises is reported at 75.08% (-0.1) [2] - **Inventory Situation**: Upstream inventory is accumulating, and downstream inventory is decreasing. The clean coal inventory of 523 mines is reported at 473.03 million tons (+25.5), the clean coal inventory of coal washing plants is 222.07 million tons (+7.33), the inventory of 247 steel mills is 786.79 million tons (-11.96), the inventory of 230 coke enterprises is 716.66 million tons (-21.3), and the port inventory is 303.09 million tons (+1.53) [2] Coke - **Spot and Futures Prices**: The second - round price cut of coke spot has been fully implemented. The price of quasi - first - grade coke at Tianjin Port is reported at 1340 yuan/ton (-0). The active contract is reported at 1332 yuan/ton (-6.5). The basis is 109.52 yuan/ton (+6.5), and the 9 - 1 month spread is -18 yuan/ton (+6) [3] - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The supply remains flat, and the demand has peaked and declined. The production rate of 230 independent coke enterprises is reported at 75.08% (-0.1). The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is reported at 91.32% (-0.44), and the daily average pig iron output is 243.6 million tons (-1.17) [3] - **Inventory Situation**: Upstream inventory is accumulating, and downstream inventory is decreasing. The inventory of 230 coke enterprises is 73.1 million tons (+7.64), the inventory of 247 steel mills is 660.59 million tons (-3.21), and the port inventory is 223.1 million tons (-2.02) [3] Strategy Recommendations - It is recommended to continue to hold a small - position long position in the J09 contract and wait to confirm the bottom before adding positions [6]