商品研究 | 走势评级: | 白糖 | 震荡 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 棉花- | 震荡 | 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 期货研究报告 市场聚焦印度泰国产量改善，原糖短期承压 [T报ab告le日_R期ep：ortDate] 2025-06-18 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款 1 | 数据速览 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 外盘报价 | | 2025-06-16 | 2025-06-17 | 涨跌幅 | | | 美白糖（美元） | 17.02 | 16.45 | -3.35% | | | 美棉花（美元） | 68.05 | 67.64 | -0.60% | | 现货价格 | | 2025-06-16 | 2025-06-17 | 涨跌幅 | | | 白糖（南宁） | 6020.0 | 6030.0 | 0.17% | | | 白糖（昆明） | 5835.0 | 5865.0 | 0.5 ...

[Table_ReportType] 镍不锈钢早报 期货研究报告 商品研究 走势评级： 镍——滚动做空 不锈钢——观望 楼家豪 从业资格证号：F3080463 投资咨询证号：Z0018424 联系电话：0571-28132615 邮箱：loujiahao@cindasc.com 信达期货有限公司 CINDAFUTURESCO.LTD 杭州市萧山区钱江世纪城天人大厦19-20楼 邮编：311200 接近支撑位 [Table_ReportDate] 报告日期： 2025 年 6 月 18 日 报告内容摘要: [Table_S 宏观&行业消息： ummary]【印尼华星镍业年产 4 万吨高冰镍项目取得进展】2025 年 6 月 14 日，分公司承建的华星镍业(印尼)有限公司年产 4 万吨金属高冰项 目在业主、监理共同见证下顺利完成 101 原料堆棚首根钢柱吊装作业，标 志着备料系统装置正式进入主体钢结构施工的全新阶段。项目位于印尼东 南苏拉维西省科拉卡县波马拉镇 IPIP 工业园。分公司承建内容包括:五个 区域:100(备料系统)、200(冶炼区域)、300(辅助工程)、500(冶炼厂给排 水系统)、600(公辅工 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "sideways" rating for both coke and coking coal [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The impact of the escalation of the Middle - East situation on the medium - and long - term coking coal price is unclear. Domestically, the May social financing performance was weaker than expected, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value slowed down, while the social retail growth rate increased, narrowing the supply - demand gap and potentially boosting prices. The government is promoting the stabilization of the real estate market, and the steel industry's production reduction plan is to be implemented but the timing is uncertain [4] - In the coking coal market, under safety and environmental disturbances, production at mines and coal washeries has decreased significantly, but inventories are still rising. For coke, cost and demand are decisive factors, and the supply - demand situation has marginally improved [5] - The market reacted positively to the weak May economic data, indicating that as valuations are extremely low, reverse trading is increasing and a bottom is gradually forming [4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Coking Coal 3.1.1 Market Conditions - Spot prices are weak, and futures are moving sideways. The Mongolian No. 5 coking coal is reported at 878 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the active contract is at 789.5 yuan/ton (down 6 yuan). The basis is 90.5 yuan/ton (up 6 yuan), and the September - January spread is - 17.5 yuan/ton (down 2.5 yuan) [1] 3.1.2 Supply - Mines and coal washeries have reduced production. The operating rate of 523 mines is 83.7% (down 0.94), and the operating rate of 110 coal washeries is 57.36% (down 3.23) [2] 3.1.3 Inventory - Upstream inventories are increasing, and downstream inventories are decreasing. The clean coal inventory of 523 mines is 486.04 million tons (up 5.31 million tons), and that of coal washeries is 251.47 million tons (up 6.41 million tons). The inventory of 247 steel mills is 773.98 million tons (up 3.07 million tons), and that of 230 coking enterprises is 669.53 million tons (down 21 million tons). Port inventories are 312.02 million tons (down 1 million tons) [2] 3.2 Coke 3.2.1 Market Conditions - Spot prices are weak, and futures are moving sideways. The quasi - first - grade coke at Tianjin Port is reported at 1270 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the active contract is at 1365.5 yuan/ton (down 5.5 yuan). The basis is - 0 yuan/ton (up 5.5 yuan), and the September - January spread is - 21.5 yuan/ton (down 4.5 yuan) [3] 3.2.2 Supply and Demand - Supply has decreased, and demand has remained flat. The production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is 73.96% (down 0.94), the capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is 90.58% (down 0.07), and the daily average pig iron output is 241.61 million tons (down 0.19 million tons) [3] 3.2.3 Inventory - Upstream inventories have shifted from increasing to decreasing, and downstream inventories have continued to decline. The inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 87.31 million tons (down 1.1 million tons), that of 247 steel mills is 642.84 million tons (down 2.96 million tons), and port inventories are 203.09 million tons (down 11.06 million tons) [3] 3.3 Strategy Recommendations - It is recommended to hold a small long position in the J09 contract and add to the position after confirming the bottom [6]

期货研究报告 商品研究 [铜早报 Table_ReportType] 走势评级： 铜——高位盘整， 后续看跌 楼家豪—有色分析师 从业资格证号：F3080463 投资咨询证号：Z0018424 联系电话：0571-28132615 邮箱：loujiahao@cindasc.com 信达期货有限公司 CINDAFUTURESCO.LTD 杭州市萧山区钱江世纪城天人大厦19-20 楼 邮编：311200 [Table_ReportDate] 报告日期： 2025 年 6 月 18 日 报告内容摘要: 宏观与行业消息：【伦敦金属交易所铜库存锐减，买方面临供应吃紧】据 报道，伦敦金属交易所（LME）铜买方面临供应吃紧，随着交易员争夺交易 所仓库中不断下降的铜库存，现货铜价飙升。周二，将在一天内到期的合 约较次日到期合约一度溢价每吨 36 美元，为 2021 年历史性供应吃紧以来 最阔。尽管这一所谓的明日/次日价差临近收盘出现回落，但其他中长期限 价差继续收紧。现货合约价格飙升，即所谓的现货升水，表明交易所仓库 中的库存不足以满足交易商的需求。此前，LME 可交割库存今年已减少 80%。（华尔街见闻） 品种逻辑:宏观角 ...

商品研究 | 走势评级: | 自糖 | 震荡 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 棉花- | 震荡 | 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 期货研究报告 美元疲软提振，软商品有所支撑 [T报ab告le日_R期ep：ortDate] 2025-06-17 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 白糖：2024/25 年度的食糖生产已圆满结束。根据中国糖业协会的统计， 截至 5 月底，全国累计产糖达到 1116 万吨，同比增长 120 万吨；累计销糖 811 万吨，同比增长 152 万吨；销售进度为 72.7%，比去年同期加快了 6.5 个百分点。自 5 月以来，广西的降水缓解了之前的旱情，而云南的降雨量也 高于往年同期，这对甘蔗的生长十分有利。尽管内蒙古的甜菜播种因低温有 所延迟，但近期光照和温度条件的改善使甜菜的生长恢复良好，新疆的甜菜 生长情况总体也较好。在国际市场方面，预计 2025/26 年度的主要产糖国印 度将增产，而巴西的干旱影响相对有限， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Coke - Oscillation [1] - Coking Coal - Oscillation with a Weak Bias [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The conflict between Israel and Iran continues, and concerns about crude oil supply have led to a significant increase in international oil prices. Coking coal, as an energy - related variety, indirectly benefits from the rising energy costs. However, the long - term impact on coking coal prices is unclear due to the potential drag on global economic recovery. In China, the May social financing performance remains weak, with weak financing demand from residents and enterprises, and only government bond financing provides support. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value has slowed down, while the social retail growth rate has increased, narrowing the supply - demand gap and potentially boosting price levels. The State Council executive meeting has proposed to promote the stabilization of the real estate market, and Guangzhou has fully lifted purchase restrictions. There are also rumors that the crude steel production limit is about 30 million tons, less than the previously expected 50 million tons. Overall, the May economic data is weak, but the market reaction after the data release on the 16th was positive, with the real estate sector rising significantly [5]. - For coking coal, the production of mines and coal washing plants has been significantly reduced, but the inventory in mines and coal washing plants is still rising, although the inventory accumulation speed has slowed down. The reduction in supply has not effectively affected the inventory. For coke, cost and demand are decisive factors. The cost has reached a low level, and the market expects the bottom to be around the previous low point. The capacity utilization rate of coke enterprises has started to decline rapidly this week, the blast furnace profit is maintained at around 100, the molten iron output is stable, and the supply - demand of coke has marginally improved [6]. - The probability of further expansion of the Israel - Iran conflict is limited. The night - session decline in crude oil prices has led to a weakening of coking coal. Unless crude oil price fluctuations increase again, coking coal will return to its own logic. In extreme market conditions, capital game dominates. Since the recent rebound, the net position of the top 20 in coking coal has significantly converged, but the total position has not significantly decreased, indicating that the battle between long and short positions is not over. It is recommended to hold a small - position long order of J09 and add positions after confirming the bottom [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Coking Coal 3.1.1 Market Conditions - Spot prices are weak, while futures prices are oscillating upward. Mongolian 5 main coking coal is reported at 878 yuan/ton (unchanged), the active contract is reported at 795.5 yuan/ton (+21), the basis is 102.5 yuan/ton (-21), and the 9 - 1 month spread is - 15 yuan/ton (-1.5) [2]. 3.1.2 Supply - Mine production continues to decrease, and the capacity utilization rate of coke enterprises has been adjusted downward. The operating rate of 523 mines is reported at 83.7% (-0.94), the operating rate of 110 coal washing plants is reported at 57.36% (-3.23), and the production rate of 230 independent coke enterprises is reported at 73.96% (-0.97) [3]. 3.1.3 Inventory - Upstream inventory is accumulating, while downstream inventory is decreasing. The clean coal inventory of 523 mines is reported at 4.8604 million tons (+53,100 tons), the clean coal inventory of coal washing plants is 2.5147 million tons (+64,100 tons), the inventory of 247 steel mills is 7.7398 million tons (+30,700 tons), the inventory of 230 coke enterprises is 6.6953 million tons (-210,000 tons), and the port inventory is 3.1202 million tons (-10,000 tons) [3]. 3.2 Coke 3.2.1 Market Conditions - Spot prices are weak, while futures prices are oscillating upward. The quasi - first - grade coke at Tianjin Port is reported at 1270 yuan/ton (unchanged), the active contract is reported at 1371 yuan/ton (+21.5), the basis is - 5 yuan/ton (-21.5), and the 9 - 1 month spread is - 21.5 yuan/ton (-4.5) [4]. 3.2.2 Supply and Demand - Supply has decreased, while demand remains flat. The production rate of 230 independent coke enterprises is reported at 73.96% (-0.94). The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is reported at 90.58% (-0.07), and the daily average molten iron output is 2.4161 million tons (-19,000 tons) [4]. 3.2.3 Inventory - Upstream inventory has changed from accumulation to reduction, and downstream inventory continues to decrease. The inventory of 230 coke enterprises is 87,310 tons (-1,100 tons), the inventory of 247 steel mills is 642,840 tons (-2,960 tons), and the port inventory is 203,090 tons (-11,060 tons) [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper is rated as "High-level consolidation, bearish in the future" [1] - The recommended strategy is to "Wait and see for now, and short later" [2][3] 2. Core View of the Report - The market is trading the weakening of the US economy, with signs of economic decline emerging. Although the copper fundamentals currently have some support, they are showing signs of weakening. The market's trading logic has changed again, and concerns about overseas miners suppressing long-term processing fees are relatively strong, reinforcing the long position's bet on copper shortage. In the short term, the downside space for copper prices may be limited, and they are expected to remain at a high level. However, due to weakening demand and lack of macro confidence, it is difficult for copper prices to continue rising [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro and Industry News - The open-pit mining project of the Canon Copper Mine of WANXIANG MINING CO., LTD., a subsidiary of Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Co., Ltd., has officially started. This is the first large-scale copper mine project restarted since the suspension of copper mining in 2021, marking that WANXIANG MINING has entered the era of "simultaneous development of gold and copper" again. After the project is put into production, it will become another important profit growth point for WANXIANG MINING [2] Variety Logic Macro Perspective - The US CPI data is lower than market expectations, and the market starts to trade the weakening of the US economy. In terms of non-farm employment, although it is higher than the Bloomberg consensus forecast, the short-term employment diffusion index has declined, indicating that although the employment market is still strong at present, there is a high risk of decline in the future. At the same time, the revised US GDP still shows negative growth, and overall, the economic weakening has begun to emerge [2] Fundamentals - **Supply Side**: The import copper concentrate processing fee of smelters is -$43.91 per dry ton, and the spot processing fee has stabilized but is still in a deep inversion state. Overseas miners are seeking to negotiate with Chinese smelters to lower the long-term processing fee, and smelters are under great pressure. Attention should be paid to whether there will be production cut actions in the future [2] - **Demand Side**: The production of copper rods, copper tubes, etc. has reached the high level of the same period in previous years, but the downstream is gradually entering the off-season [2] Strategy Recommendation - Temporarily wait and see, and short copper later [2][3]

Report 1: Nickel and Stainless Steel Morning Report 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Nickel: Rolling short [1] - Stainless steel: Hold [1] 2. Core View - The main operating range of nickel is between 118,000 and 133,000 yuan, and the core operating range is between 120,000 and 127,000 yuan. The demand is still weak, and the supply is in an oversupply situation. It is recommended to close short positions in batches and roll short after the rebound [1][2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro & Industry News - Harita Nickel in Indonesia has put 12 production lines into operation and is fully producing ferronickel [1] Supply - In the nickel ore market, the Philippines has emerged from the rainy season, with increased arrivals in China and shipments from the Philippines. The Indonesian Sulawesi mining area has rainfall, affecting ore production and causing a rebound in nickel ore prices. Domestic ferronickel production has slightly decreased, but Indonesian ferronickel production has increased rapidly, with a year - on - year increase of over 30% and a month - on - month increase of over 10%. The total supply of domestic imports and ferronickel remains high and in surplus. The month - on - month decline in electrolytic nickel production is minimal, but the year - on - year increase is over 45%, and the total supply of imported electrolytic nickel within the month is high [1] Demand - In the process of producing nickel sulfate from nickel beans, the nickel cost is about 127,000 yuan. The demand support provided by the downstream nickel sulfate cost is about 126,700 yuan/ton, and the profit critical point of external procurement manufacturers has dropped to 133,000 yuan/ton. The early stainless steel production was high, but since May, ferronickel profits have shrunk rapidly and may face losses, which may affect stainless steel production. Overall, the demand is still weak [2] Report 2: Shanghai Zinc Morning Report 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Zinc: Bearish [3] 2. Core View - Tariff impacts have temporarily receded. In the short term, supply is stable with a slight increase, while the demand peak season has passed. Manufacturers are pessimistic about terminal demand, so zinc is generally viewed bearishly [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro & Industry News - In May 2025, the zinc and zinc alloy output of sample enterprises was 493,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.0% and a month - on - month decrease of 7,000 tons. The cumulative output from January to May was 2.42 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.7%. In June, most previously overhauled smelters resumed production. It is estimated that the refined zinc output in June will increase by 19,000 tons to 512,000 tons month - on - month, with a daily average increase of 7.3% [3] Supply - During the narrow - range fluctuation of zinc prices, the profit per ton of mining enterprises is basically maintained at about 4,000 yuan/ton. The processing fees in the north and south have returned to 3,500 yuan/ton. Smelters can basically break even without considering by - products and make a profit with by - products. The overall supply is relatively loose [3] Demand - Galvanized production capacity has expanded, but capacity utilization and output are not high, and manufacturers' production enthusiasm is low. The steel mill inventory is low, and social inventory has started to accumulate. The zinc oxide production is temporarily without positive support, and there are signs of further contraction. The die - casting alloy start - up rate has exceeded the same period last year, but the downstream start - up rate is expected to weaken. In general, the short - term zinc demand side is difficult to improve significantly, but there is still resilience [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both sugar and cotton is "sideways" [1] Core Viewpoints - The 2024/25 sugar production season has ended successfully. As of the end of May, China's cumulative sugar production reached 11.16 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.2 million tons; cumulative sugar sales were 8.11 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.52 million tons; the sales progress was 72.7%, 6.5 percentage points faster than the same period last year. Favorable precipitation in Guangxi and Yunnan benefits sugarcane growth, and the growth of sugar beets in Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang is also improving. Globally, the 2025/26 sugar supply is expected to be loose, with India likely to increase production and limited impact from Brazil's drought, leading to a weak international sugar price. Attention should be paid to precipitation in major producing countries and Brazil's sugar production and export progress [1] - Due to US tariffs, cotton imports did not meet expectations. Overall, the light and temperature conditions in China's cotton - growing areas since sowing are suitable for cotton growth. Most cotton in Xinjiang has entered the squaring stage, and cotton in the Yellow River and Yangtze River basins is at the fifth true leaf to squaring stage. The development period of most cotton is 3 to 15 days earlier than in previous years. Weather's impact on yield per unit needs continuous attention [1] Data Summary Price and Spread - **External Market Quotes**: On June 14 - 15, 2025, the price of US sugar was $16.54, with a 0.00% change; the price of US cotton was $67.9, also with a 0.00% change [3] - **Spot Prices**: From June 12 - 13, 2025, the price of sugar in Nanning dropped from 6035.0 to 6020.0, a - 0.25% change; in Kunming, it dropped from 5855.0 to 5835.0, a - 0.34% change. The cotton index 328 decreased from 3281 to 3280, a - 0.07% change, while the price of cotton in Xinjiang increased from 14700.0 to 14800.0, a 0.68% change [3] - **Spreads**: All spreads and basis for sugar and cotton futures contracts from June 14 - 15, 2025, remained unchanged, with a 0.00% change [3] Import Price, Profit, and Other Data - **Import Price**: From June 12 - 13, 2025, the price of cotton cotlookA dropped from 78.05 to 77.8, a - 0.32% change [3] - **Profit Space**: The sugar import profit remained at 1638.0 from June 12 - 13, 2025, with a 0.00% change [3] - **Options**: The implied volatility of SR509C5700 was 0.0843, and the historical volatility of SR509 was 8.94; the implied volatility of SR509P5700 was 0.0829. The implied volatility of CF509C13400 was 0.097, and the historical volatility of CF509 was 12.67; the implied volatility of CF509P13400 was 0.0959 [3] - **Warehouse Receipts**: From June 12 - 13, 2025, the number of sugar warehouse receipts decreased from 29116.0 to 28736.0, a - 1.31% change; the number of cotton warehouse receipts decreased from 10769.0 to 10753.0, a - 0.15% change [3]

| 走势评级: | 自糖 | 震荡 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 棉花- | 震荡 | 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 期货研究报告 需求前景忧虑，棉花短线承压 [T报ab告le日_R期ep：ortDate] 2025-06-13 商品研究 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 白糖：2024/25 年度的食糖生产已圆满结束。根据中国糖业协会的统计， 截至 5 月底，全国累计产糖达到 1116 万吨，同比增长 120 万吨；累计销糖 811 万吨，同比增长 152 万吨；销售进度为 72.7%，比去年同期加快了 6.5 个百分点。自 5 月以来，广西的降水缓解了之前的旱情，而云南的降雨量也 高于往年同期，这对甘蔗的生长十分有利。尽管内蒙古的甜菜播种因低温有 所延迟，但近期光照和温度条件的改善使甜菜的生长恢复良好，新疆的甜菜 生长情况总体也较好。在国际市场方面，预计 2025/26 年度的主要产糖国印 度将增产，而巴西的干旱影响相对有限，全 ...