商品研究 | 走势评级: | 白糖 | 震荡 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 棉花- | 震荡 | 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 期货研究报告 美棉出口数据强劲，棉花短期观望为主 [T报ab告le日_R期ep：ortDate] 2025-06-23 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 白糖：2024/25 年度的食糖生产已圆满结束。根据中国糖业协会的统计， 截至 5 月底，全国累计产糖达到 1116 万吨，同比增长 120 万吨；累计销糖 811 万吨，同比增长 152 万吨；销售进度为 72.7%，比去年同期加快了 6.5 个百分点。自 5 月以来，广西的降水缓解了之前的旱情，而云南的降雨量也 高于往年同期，这对甘蔗的生长十分有利。尽管内蒙古的甜菜播种因低温有 所延迟，但近期光照和温度条件的改善使甜菜的生长恢复良好，新疆的甜菜 生长情况总体也较好。在国际市场方面，预计 2025/26 年度的主要产糖国印 度将增产，而巴西的干旱影响相对 ...

商品研究 | 走势评级: | 白糖 | 震荡 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 棉花- | 震荡 | 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 期货研究报告 美棉疲软，郑棉短期承压 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 白糖：2024/25 年度的食糖生产已圆满结束。根据中国糖业协会的统计， 截至 5 月底，全国累计产糖达到 1116 万吨，同比增长 120 万吨；累计销糖 811 万吨，同比增长 152 万吨；销售进度为 72.7%，比去年同期加快了 6.5 个百分点。自 5 月以来，广西的降水缓解了之前的旱情，而云南的降雨量也 高于往年同期，这对甘蔗的生长十分有利。尽管内蒙古的甜菜播种因低温有 所延迟，但近期光照和温度条件的改善使甜菜的生长恢复良好，新疆的甜菜 生长情况总体也较好。在国际市场方面，预计 2025/26 年度的主要产糖国印 度将增产，而巴西的干旱影响相对有限，全球食糖供给趋于宽松，国际糖价 呈现弱势运行。后续需密切关注主要产国的降水情 ...

商品研究 | 走势评级: | 自糖 | 震荡 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 棉花- | 震荡 | 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 期货研究报告 供应预期宽松，原糖短期承压 [T报ab告le日_R期ep：ortDate] 2025-06-19 报告内容摘要: 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款 2 免责声明 本报告由信达期货有限公司（以下简称"信达期货"）制作及发布。 [Table_Summary] 白糖：2024/25 年度的食糖生产已圆满结束。根据中国糖业协会的统计， 截至 5 月底，全国累计产糖达到 1116 万吨，同比增长 120 万吨；累计销糖 811 万吨，同比增长 152 万吨；销售进度为 72.7%，比去年同期加快了 6.5 个百分点。自 5 月以来，广西的降水缓解了之前的旱情，而云南的降雨量也 高于往年同期，这对甘蔗的生长十分有利。尽管内蒙古的甜菜播种因低温有 所延迟，但近期光照和温度条件的改善使甜菜的生长恢复良好，新疆的甜菜 生长情况总 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend rating for coke is "shock", and for coking coal is also "shock" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The conflict between Israel and Iran has caused the price of crude oil to rise. Coking coal, as an energy-related variety, indirectly benefits and rises under the narrative of rising energy costs. However, the deterioration of the Middle East situation may also drag down the global economic recovery, so its medium - to - long - term impact on coking coal prices is unclear. In China, the social financing performance in May was weaker than expected, with weak financing demand from residents and enterprises. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value slowed down, while the growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods increased. The supply - demand gap further narrowed, which is expected to boost the price level. The State Council executive meeting mentioned promoting the stabilization of the real estate market, and Guangzhou fully lifted purchase restrictions. There are also policies such as disguised price cuts through housing purchase coupons in some cities. The implementation time of crude steel production restrictions is uncertain, and currently, steel mills have sufficient profits and lack the motivation to cut production. Overall, the economic data in May was weak, but the market reaction was positive after the data was released on the 16th, and the real estate sector rose significantly. In a situation of extremely low valuations, reverse trading increased, and the bottom is gradually taking shape [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Coking Coal - **Spot and Futures Situation**: Spot prices stopped falling, and futures prices fluctuated. The price of Mongolian No. 5 coking coal was reported at 868 yuan/ton (+8), and the active contract was reported at 790.5 yuan/ton (+1). The basis was 97.5 yuan/ton (+7), and the September - January spread was - 25 yuan/ton (-7.5) [2] - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: Mines and coal washing plants started to resume production. The operating rate of 523 mines was reported at 83.7% (-0.94), the operating rate of 110 coal washing plants was reported at 61.34% (+3.98), and the production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was reported at 73.96% (-0.97) [2] - **Inventory Situation**: Upstream inventory increased, and downstream inventory decreased. The clean coal inventory of 523 mines was reported at 486.04 million tons (+5.31), the clean coal inventory of coal washing plants was 251.47 million tons (+6.41), the inventory of 247 steel mills was 773.98 million tons (+3.07), the inventory of 230 coking enterprises was 669.53 (-21), and the port inventory was 312.02 million tons (-1) [2] Coke - **Spot and Futures Situation**: Spot prices were weak, and futures prices fluctuated. The price of quasi - first - grade coke at Tianjin Port was reported at 1270 yuan/ton (-0), and the active contract was reported at 1375 yuan/ton (+9.5). The basis was - 9 yuan/ton (-9.5), and the September - January spread was - 28 yuan/ton (-5.5) [3] - **Supply and Demand Situation**: Supply decreased, and demand remained flat. The production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was reported at 73.96% (-0.94). The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was reported at 90.58% (-0.07), and the daily average pig iron output was 241.61 million tons (-0.19) [3] - **Inventory Situation**: Upstream inventory changed from increasing to decreasing, and downstream inventory continued to decrease. The inventory of 230 coking enterprises was 87.31 million tons (-1.1), the inventory of 247 steel mills was 642.84 million tons (-2.96), and the port inventory was 203.09 million tons (-11.06) [3] Strategy Suggestions - In the short term, it is recommended to hold a small - position long position in the J09 contract and add positions after confirming the bottom. The conflict between Israel and Iran has led to an increase in the price of crude oil, and coking coal, as an energy - related variety, indirectly benefits. However, the impact of the Middle East situation on coking coal prices in the medium - to - long - term is unclear. Domestically, although the economic data in May was weak, the market reaction was positive, and the bottom is gradually taking shape. For coking coal, the resumption of production in coal washing plants and mines this week confirmed that the previous production cuts were mainly passive due to safety and environmental protection. The coal washing plants have started to reduce inventory, and it is likely that mines will also reduce inventory in the future. For coke, cost and demand are decisive factors. The previous decline has pushed the cost to the limit, and the market expects the bottom to be around the previous low point. The production capacity of coking enterprises has started to decline rapidly this week, and the supply - demand situation of coke has improved marginally [4][5][6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the stock index is "Oscillation" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the stock index market declined due to the escalation of geopolitical conflicts, which increased global risk - aversion sentiment. European and American stock indices mostly fell, and A - share sentiment cooled down. This week, the stock index is still at a relatively over - valued position within the oscillation range and is expected to continue to bottom out. The impact of short - term foreign capital sentiment fluctuations on A - shares is limited, and there are no clear domestic trading events in the short term. The market will continue the decline trend under the characteristics of shrinking volume and low volatility, and it is recommended that investors mainly wait and see. The next breakthrough window may appear in early July, with attention paid to the new round of tariff disturbances caused by the expiration of Trump's 90 - day exemption policy and possible hedging policies from the domestic Politburo meeting. In the medium - to - long - term, the current discounts of IC and IM have reached the highest level in the past two years. The annualized discount rate of the current - quarter IC contract is 11 - 12%, and that of the IM contract is 15 - 16%. These two types of contracts can bring more substantial excess returns in the allocation level compared to index products such as ETFs, and it is still valuable and potential for long - term index investment investors to hold long positions [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Stock Market Information - The 2025 Lujiazui Forum will be held from June 18th to 19th, with the theme of "Financial Opening - up, Cooperation and High - quality Development in the Changing Global Economic Landscape". Central financial management department leaders will give speeches and release major financial policies. US President Trump's pressure on Iran makes the market speculate that the US may directly participate in Israel's attack on Iran [5] 3.2 Stock Index Disk Review - **Disk Tracking**: In the previous trading day, A - shares fluctuated narrowly. Among the four major indices, the Shanghai 50 Index fell 0.04%, the CSI 300 Index fell 0.09%, the CSI 500 Index fell 0.29%, and the CSI 1000 Index fell 0.10%. The shipping (+2.44%) and energy equipment (+2.01%) sectors led the gains, while the office supplies (-3.45%) and soft drink (-2.80%) sectors lagged. More than 2,200 stocks rose, and 61 stocks hit the daily limit, with a poor profit - making effect [5] - **Technical Tracking**: After the previous oversold rebound, the stock indices generally approached the upper edge of the gap, with stronger pressure at the daily and weekly levels, and the monthly - line trend is still oscillating [5] - **Fund Flow**: Recently, the trading volume of A - shares has been hovering at a low level, staying at the 1.2 - trillion - yuan level yesterday. The short - term market has a strong wait - and - see sentiment and insufficient upward momentum [5] 3.3 Core Logic Summary - The decline in the stock index market last week was due to geopolitical conflicts. This week, the stock index is over - valued and may continue to decline. The impact of foreign capital is limited, and there are no clear trading events. The market will decline with shrinking volume and low volatility. The next breakthrough may be in early July. In the long - term, IC and IM contracts have high allocation value [3] 3.4 Operation Suggestions - **Futures Operation**: In the short term, it is recommended to mainly wait and see, with the lower support level seen at the position on April 9th. For monthly operations, maintain the idea of band trading [4] - **Option Operation**: The implied volatility of stock index options continues to flatten, with the weekly IV of the current - month at - the - money CSI 300 option remaining at 12 - 13%. Given the low - level oscillation of volatility, the cost of buying options during the waiting - for - breakthrough stage is expected to be high, and the premium recovered from selling options is limited. It is recommended to wait for the second wave of rising volatility before engaging in double - selling operations [4]

商品研究 | 走势评级: | 白糖 | 震荡 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 棉花- | 震荡 | 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 期货研究报告 市场聚焦印度泰国产量改善，原糖短期承压 [T报ab告le日_R期ep：ortDate] 2025-06-18 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款 1 | 数据速览 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 外盘报价 | | 2025-06-16 | 2025-06-17 | 涨跌幅 | | | 美白糖（美元） | 17.02 | 16.45 | -3.35% | | | 美棉花（美元） | 68.05 | 67.64 | -0.60% | | 现货价格 | | 2025-06-16 | 2025-06-17 | 涨跌幅 | | | 白糖（南宁） | 6020.0 | 6030.0 | 0.17% | | | 白糖（昆明） | 5835.0 | 5865.0 | 0.5 ...

[Table_ReportType] 镍不锈钢早报 期货研究报告 商品研究 走势评级： 镍——滚动做空 不锈钢——观望 楼家豪 从业资格证号：F3080463 投资咨询证号：Z0018424 联系电话：0571-28132615 邮箱：loujiahao@cindasc.com 信达期货有限公司 CINDAFUTURESCO.LTD 杭州市萧山区钱江世纪城天人大厦19-20楼 邮编：311200 接近支撑位 [Table_ReportDate] 报告日期： 2025 年 6 月 18 日 报告内容摘要: [Table_S 宏观&行业消息： ummary]【印尼华星镍业年产 4 万吨高冰镍项目取得进展】2025 年 6 月 14 日，分公司承建的华星镍业(印尼)有限公司年产 4 万吨金属高冰项 目在业主、监理共同见证下顺利完成 101 原料堆棚首根钢柱吊装作业，标 志着备料系统装置正式进入主体钢结构施工的全新阶段。项目位于印尼东 南苏拉维西省科拉卡县波马拉镇 IPIP 工业园。分公司承建内容包括:五个 区域:100(备料系统)、200(冶炼区域)、300(辅助工程)、500(冶炼厂给排 水系统)、600(公辅工 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "sideways" rating for both coke and coking coal [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The impact of the escalation of the Middle - East situation on the medium - and long - term coking coal price is unclear. Domestically, the May social financing performance was weaker than expected, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value slowed down, while the social retail growth rate increased, narrowing the supply - demand gap and potentially boosting prices. The government is promoting the stabilization of the real estate market, and the steel industry's production reduction plan is to be implemented but the timing is uncertain [4] - In the coking coal market, under safety and environmental disturbances, production at mines and coal washeries has decreased significantly, but inventories are still rising. For coke, cost and demand are decisive factors, and the supply - demand situation has marginally improved [5] - The market reacted positively to the weak May economic data, indicating that as valuations are extremely low, reverse trading is increasing and a bottom is gradually forming [4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Coking Coal 3.1.1 Market Conditions - Spot prices are weak, and futures are moving sideways. The Mongolian No. 5 coking coal is reported at 878 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the active contract is at 789.5 yuan/ton (down 6 yuan). The basis is 90.5 yuan/ton (up 6 yuan), and the September - January spread is - 17.5 yuan/ton (down 2.5 yuan) [1] 3.1.2 Supply - Mines and coal washeries have reduced production. The operating rate of 523 mines is 83.7% (down 0.94), and the operating rate of 110 coal washeries is 57.36% (down 3.23) [2] 3.1.3 Inventory - Upstream inventories are increasing, and downstream inventories are decreasing. The clean coal inventory of 523 mines is 486.04 million tons (up 5.31 million tons), and that of coal washeries is 251.47 million tons (up 6.41 million tons). The inventory of 247 steel mills is 773.98 million tons (up 3.07 million tons), and that of 230 coking enterprises is 669.53 million tons (down 21 million tons). Port inventories are 312.02 million tons (down 1 million tons) [2] 3.2 Coke 3.2.1 Market Conditions - Spot prices are weak, and futures are moving sideways. The quasi - first - grade coke at Tianjin Port is reported at 1270 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the active contract is at 1365.5 yuan/ton (down 5.5 yuan). The basis is - 0 yuan/ton (up 5.5 yuan), and the September - January spread is - 21.5 yuan/ton (down 4.5 yuan) [3] 3.2.2 Supply and Demand - Supply has decreased, and demand has remained flat. The production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is 73.96% (down 0.94), the capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is 90.58% (down 0.07), and the daily average pig iron output is 241.61 million tons (down 0.19 million tons) [3] 3.2.3 Inventory - Upstream inventories have shifted from increasing to decreasing, and downstream inventories have continued to decline. The inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 87.31 million tons (down 1.1 million tons), that of 247 steel mills is 642.84 million tons (down 2.96 million tons), and port inventories are 203.09 million tons (down 11.06 million tons) [3] 3.3 Strategy Recommendations - It is recommended to hold a small long position in the J09 contract and add to the position after confirming the bottom [6]

期货研究报告 商品研究 [铜早报 Table_ReportType] 走势评级： 铜——高位盘整， 后续看跌 楼家豪—有色分析师 从业资格证号：F3080463 投资咨询证号：Z0018424 联系电话：0571-28132615 邮箱：loujiahao@cindasc.com 信达期货有限公司 CINDAFUTURESCO.LTD 杭州市萧山区钱江世纪城天人大厦19-20 楼 邮编：311200 [Table_ReportDate] 报告日期： 2025 年 6 月 18 日 报告内容摘要: 宏观与行业消息：【伦敦金属交易所铜库存锐减，买方面临供应吃紧】据 报道，伦敦金属交易所（LME）铜买方面临供应吃紧，随着交易员争夺交易 所仓库中不断下降的铜库存，现货铜价飙升。周二，将在一天内到期的合 约较次日到期合约一度溢价每吨 36 美元，为 2021 年历史性供应吃紧以来 最阔。尽管这一所谓的明日/次日价差临近收盘出现回落，但其他中长期限 价差继续收紧。现货合约价格飙升，即所谓的现货升水，表明交易所仓库 中的库存不足以满足交易商的需求。此前，LME 可交割库存今年已减少 80%。（华尔街见闻） 品种逻辑:宏观角 ...

商品研究 | 走势评级: | 自糖 | 震荡 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 棉花- | 震荡 | 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 期货研究报告 美元疲软提振，软商品有所支撑 [T报ab告le日_R期ep：ortDate] 2025-06-17 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 白糖：2024/25 年度的食糖生产已圆满结束。根据中国糖业协会的统计， 截至 5 月底，全国累计产糖达到 1116 万吨，同比增长 120 万吨；累计销糖 811 万吨，同比增长 152 万吨；销售进度为 72.7%，比去年同期加快了 6.5 个百分点。自 5 月以来，广西的降水缓解了之前的旱情，而云南的降雨量也 高于往年同期，这对甘蔗的生长十分有利。尽管内蒙古的甜菜播种因低温有 所延迟，但近期光照和温度条件的改善使甜菜的生长恢复良好，新疆的甜菜 生长情况总体也较好。在国际市场方面，预计 2025/26 年度的主要产糖国印 度将增产，而巴西的干旱影响相对有限， ...