-------------------- 商品研究 -------------------- [Table_ReportType] 煤焦早报 ----------------- 期 走势评级： 焦炭——看涨 焦煤——看涨 刘开友—黑色研究员 从业资格证号：F03087895 投资咨询证号：Z0019509 联系电话：0571-28132535 邮箱：liukaiyou@cindasc.com 信达期货股份有限公司 CINDAFUTURESCO.LTD 杭州市萧山区钱江世纪城天人大厦19-20楼 邮编：311200 矿端继续去库，焦炭提涨，关注平水处阻力 报告日期： [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 7 月 14 日 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 相关资讯： 1. 特朗普向 25 个贸易伙伴发出关税函，其中加拿大（35%）、墨西哥（30%）、欧 盟（30%）以上关税均于 8 月 1 日生效。 焦煤： 现货暂稳，期货上行。蒙 5#主焦煤报 927 元/吨(-0)。活跃合约报 913 元/吨(+16)。 基差 34 元/吨(-16)，9-1 月差-33 元/吨（+4.5）。 焦炭 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Sugar: Neutral, with an expected price fluctuation range of -5% to +5% [1] - Cotton: Neutral, with an expected price fluctuation range of -5% to +5% [1] Core Viewpoints - Sugar: Drought in Guangxi has affected the emergence and early growth of sugarcane, with shorter and fewer plants compared to the same period last year. Sugar beet growth is generally good, but there is a risk of pests and diseases in Inner Mongolia due to recent heavy rainfall. Internationally, attention should be paid to the sugar production progress in Brazil and the growth of sugar crops in the Northern Hemisphere [1] - Cotton: Most cotton-growing regions in China have entered the budding to flowering stage, with growth progress 4 to 7 days ahead of previous years. High temperatures in Xinjiang in July pose a risk of heat damage to cotton. Cotton inventories are decreasing, but the downstream market is in a slack season, and textile enterprises are cautious in raw material procurement. Attention should be paid to weather changes and tariff uncertainties [1] Data Summary External Quotes - US Sugar: The price remained unchanged at $16.56 from July 12 to July 13, with a 0.00% change [3] - US Cotton: The price remained unchanged at $67.42 from July 12 to July 13, with a 0.00% change [3] Spot Prices - Sugar (Nanning): The price increased from 6050.0 to 6060.0 from July 10 to July 11, with a 0.17% change [3] - Sugar (Kunming): The price increased from 5895.0 to 5905.0 from July 10 to July 11, with a 0.17% change [3] - Cotton Index 328: The price decreased from 3281 to 3280 from July 10 to July 11, with a 0.46% change [3] - Cotton (Xinjiang): The price increased from 15150.0 to 15200.0 from July 10 to July 11, with a 0.33% change [3] Spread Overview - All sugar and cotton spreads remained unchanged from July 12 to July 13, with a 0.00% change [3] Import Prices - Cotton CotlookA: The price decreased from 78.6 to 78.45 from July 10 to July 11, with a -0.19% change [3] Profit Margins - Sugar Import Profit: The profit remained unchanged at 1655.5 from July 10 to July 11, with a 0.00% change [3] Options - SR509C5800: Implied volatility was 0.0764, and the historical volatility of the futures underlying SR509 was 7.55 [3] - SR509P5800: Implied volatility was 0.0765 [3] - CF509C13800: Implied volatility was 0.0925, and the historical volatility of the futures underlying CF509 was 8.58 [3] - CF509P13800: Implied volatility was 0.0942 [3] Warehouse Receipts - Sugar: The number of warehouse receipts decreased from 22934.0 to 22744.0 from July 10 to July 11, with a -0.83% change [3] - Cotton: The number of warehouse receipts decreased from 9882.0 to 9850.0 from July 10 to July 11, with a -0.32% change [3] Company Information - Name: Cinda Futures Co., Ltd. [2] - Address: 19 - 20th Floor, Tianren Building, Qianjiang Century City, Xiaoshan District, Hangzhou [2] - Postal Code: 311200 [2] - Company Profile: A large - scale futures company in China with high credibility. It is a full - settlement member of the China Financial Futures Exchange, a full - fledged member of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, and Dalian Commodity Exchange, and a member of the Shanghai International Energy Exchange and Guangzhou Futures Exchange [9]

商品研究 期货研究报告 市场静候 USDA 报告，软商品盘整 [T报ab告le日_R期ep：ortDate] 2025-07-11 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 白糖：2024/25 年度的食糖生产已圆满结束。根据中国糖业协会的统计， 截至 5 月底，全国累计产糖达到 1116 万吨，同比增长 120 万吨；累计销糖 811 万吨，同比增长 152 万吨；销售进度为 72.7%，比去年同期加快了 6.5 个百分点。自 5 月以来，广西的降水缓解了之前的旱情，而云南的降雨量也 高于往年同期，这对甘蔗的生长十分有利。尽管内蒙古的甜菜播种因低温有 所延迟，但近期光照和温度条件的改善使甜菜的生长恢复良好，新疆的甜菜 生长情况总体也较好。在国际市场方面，预计 2025/26 年度的主要产糖国印 度将增产，而巴西的干旱影响相对有限，全球食糖供给趋于宽松，国际糖价 呈现弱势运行。后续需密切关注主要产国的降水情况以及巴西的食糖生产和 出口进度。 软商品日报 走势评级： 白糖——震荡 棉花——震荡 棉花：由于美国施加的关税影响，棉花进口量未达到预期。自播种以来， 全国棉区的光照和温度总体适宜，有利于棉花的生长 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both sugar and cotton is "sideways" [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the 2024/25 sugar production season, China's total sugar output reached 11.16 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.2 million tons; total sugar sales were 8.11 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.52 million tons; the sales progress was 72.7%, 6.5 percentage points faster than the same period last year. Favorable weather conditions in major domestic sugar - growing regions are conducive to the growth of sugarcane and sugar beets. Globally, the sugar supply in the 2025/26 season is expected to be loose, and international sugar prices are showing a weak trend [1] - Due to US tariffs, China's cotton imports did not meet expectations. Overall, the light and temperature conditions in domestic cotton - growing areas are suitable for cotton growth, and the development stage of most cotton is 3 - 15 days earlier than in previous years. Attention should be paid to the impact of weather on cotton yield [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Sugar - **Production and Sales**: In the 2024/25 season, China's cumulative sugar production reached 11.16 million tons, up 1.2 million tons year - on - year; cumulative sugar sales were 8.11 million tons, up 1.52 million tons year - on - year; the sales progress was 72.7%, 6.5 percentage points faster than last year [1] - **Domestic Growing Conditions**: Since May, precipitation in Guangxi has alleviated the previous drought, and rainfall in Yunnan has been higher than the same period in previous years, which is beneficial to sugarcane growth. Although sugar beet sowing in Inner Mongolia was delayed due to low temperatures, recent improvements in light and temperature have restored good growth, and the growth of sugar beets in Xinjiang is also generally good [1] - **International Market**: In the 2025/26 season, major sugar - producing countries such as India are expected to increase production, and the impact of drought in Brazil is relatively limited. The global sugar supply is becoming looser, and international sugar prices are running weakly [1] - **Price and Data Changes**: From July 8 to July 9, 2025, the price of US sugar rose from 16.15 to 16.54 US dollars, an increase of 2.41%. The price of sugar in Nanning rose from 6020 to 6040 yuan, an increase of 0.33%, and the price of sugar in Kunming rose from 5865 to 6365 yuan, an increase of 8.53%. The sugar warehouse receipts decreased from 23092 to 22987, a decrease of 0.45% [1][3] Cotton - **Import and Growing Conditions**: Due to US tariffs, cotton imports did not meet expectations. The light and temperature in domestic cotton - growing areas are generally suitable for growth. Most of the cotton in Xinjiang has entered the squaring stage, and cotton in the Yellow River and Yangtze River basins is in the fifth true leaf to squaring stage, with the development stage 3 - 15 days earlier than in previous years [1] - **Price and Data Changes**: From July 8 to July 9, 2025, the price of US cotton rose from 67.32 to 67.72 US dollars, an increase of 0.59%. The cotton index 328 decreased from 3281 to 3280, a decrease of 0.06%, and the price of cotton in Xinjiang remained unchanged at 15200 yuan. The cotton warehouse receipts decreased from 9971 to 9932, a decrease of 0.39% [1][3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the stock index is "Oscillation", suggesting a cautious long - position approach. It is expected that it will be difficult to break through the high point in March [1] Core Viewpoints - In the short term, although the daily line has continuously broken through upwards, indicating strong investor sentiment, the trading volume last week failed to increase effectively, and the futures discount of stock index futures expanded against the trend, meaning that the speculative sentiment of small and medium - sized funds did not follow synchronously. The anti - involution policy mainly targets the mid - stream manufacturing sector, and its policy effects will take longer to materialize compared with the previous supply - side reform, so the sustainability of the relevant sector's market is expected to be limited. The market is currently in the preparation period of a bull market. Although a package of policies has strengthened the medium - term upward expectation of the stock index, substantial improvement will not be seen until Q4 2025 or 2026 at the earliest. Before that, the stock index is expected to continue the range - bound pattern. Currently, the stock index is at a short - term high, and it is expected to be difficult to break through the high point in March [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Stock Market Information - US President Trump threatened to impose a new 10% tariff on BRICS countries. China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded that the BRICS mechanism advocates open - mindedness, inclusiveness, cooperation, and win - win results, and does not engage in camp confrontation. Trade wars and tariff wars have no winners, and protectionism has no future. Trump has issued tariff threats to 14 countries, with Japan, South Korea, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, and Tunisia facing a 25% tariff rate [4] Stock Index Disk Review - **Disk Tracking**: In the previous trading day, the A - share market fluctuated and adjusted. Among the four major indexes, the Shanghai 50 Index fell 0.33%, the CSI 300 Index fell 0.43%, the CSI 500 Index fell 0.19%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.24%. The real estate (+1.75%) and household goods (+1.75%) sectors led the gains, while the biotechnology (-1.31%) and motorcycle (-1.20%) sectors lagged. More than 3,200 stocks rose, and 79 stocks hit the daily limit, showing a good profit - making effect [4] - **Technical Tracking**: Small - cap stock indexes generally broke through the high point in May, with the daily and weekly lines turning bullish, but the monthly line still faced significant pressure, and the medium - term trend remained oscillatory [4] - **Fund Flow**: The trading volume of the A - share market dropped to around 1.2 trillion yuan, and investor sentiment turned cautious [4] Core Logic Summary - The market is in the preparation period of a bull market. Although policies have strengthened the medium - term upward expectation of the stock index, substantial improvement will not be seen until Q4 2025 or 2026 at the earliest. Before that, the stock index will continue to oscillate within a range. It is currently at a short - term high, and it is difficult to break through the high point in March [3] Operation Suggestions - **Futures Operation**: The short - term trend is strongly oscillatory, and it is difficult to break through the high point in March. It is recommended to wait and see or take short - term long positions in IM within a day. Long - term layout of futures alternative long positions for index investment can continue to be held [3] - **Option Operation**: The implied volatility of stock index options oscillates at a low level, and the at - the - money IV of the current - month CSI 300 has reached around 12%. The previous short - term double - selling positions can take profits and exit, and can re - enter after the second wave of volatility increase [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for sugar is "sideways" [1]. - The investment rating for cotton is "sideways" [1]. Core Viewpoints - In the sugar market, the 2024/25 sugar production season has ended. China's cumulative sugar production reached 11.16 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.2 million tons, and the sales progress was 72.7%, 6.5 percentage points faster than the previous year. Favorable weather conditions in major domestic sugar - growing areas are beneficial for future production. Internationally, the 2025/26 sugar supply is expected to be loose, with India likely to increase production and limited drought impact in Brazil, leading to a weak international sugar price. Attention should be paid to precipitation in major producing countries and Brazil's sugar production and export progress [1]. - In the cotton market, due to US - imposed tariffs, cotton imports did not meet expectations. The overall light and temperature conditions in the national cotton - growing areas are suitable for growth, and most cotton development periods are 3 - 15 days ahead of previous years. Continued attention should be paid to the impact of weather on cotton yield [1]. Data Summary Price Data - **Sugar**: The price of US sugar rose from $15.56 on July 2, 2025, to $16.37 on July 3, 2025, with a growth rate of 5.21%. The spot price of sugar in Nanning decreased from 6070 yuan to 6060 yuan, a decline of 0.16%, and in Kunming, it decreased from 5895 yuan to 5880 yuan, a decline of 0.25% [3]. - **Cotton**: The price of US cotton decreased from $68.64 on July 2, 2025, to $68.43 on July 3, 2025, with a decline of 0.31%. The cotton index 328 increased from 3281 to 3280, with a growth rate of 0.26%, and the price of cotton in Xinjiang decreased from 15200 yuan to 15150 yuan, a decline of 0.33% [3]. Spread Data - **Sugar**: The spreads SR01 - 05, SR05 - 09, SR09 - 01, and the basis of sugar contracts 01, 05, and 09 all showed different degrees of change, with the basis of contract 09 having the largest decline of 12.40% [3]. - **Cotton**: The spreads CF01 - 05, CF05 - 09, CF09 - 01, and the basis of cotton contracts 01, 05, and 09 also changed, with the basis of contract 01 having the largest growth rate of 5.58% [3]. Other Data - **Import Price**: The import price of cotton cotlookA increased from 78.85 to 79.4, with a growth rate of 0.70% [3]. - **Profit Space**: The sugar import profit decreased from 1802 yuan to 1620.5 yuan, a decline of 10.07% [3]. - **Option Data**: The implied volatility of sugar and cotton option contracts and the historical volatility of their underlying futures are provided [3]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of sugar warehouse receipts decreased from 23575 to 23520, a decline of 0.23%, and the number of cotton warehouse receipts decreased from 10190 to 10140, a decline of 0.49% [3]. Company Information - Xinda Futures Co., Ltd. is a limited - liability company specializing in domestic futures business. It is wholly - owned by Xinda Securities Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of 600 million yuan. It is a comprehensive settlement member of the China Financial Futures Exchange and a full - fledged member of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, and Dalian Commodity Exchange [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The domestic economy is expected to be high in the first half and low in the second half. Policy support is in place, but domestic demand remains weak. The GDP growth target of around 5% for 2025 is expected to be achieved with relative ease [9][10]. - Fiscal policy will mainly rely on existing measures with limited incremental input, while monetary policy will continue with reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. Additional fiscal policies may be launched under special circumstances [2]. - There are three major external disturbances in the second half of the year: tariff negotiations, the OBBB Act, and the timing of the Fed's interest rate cuts [2]. - The outlook for major asset classes varies. Stocks are expected to have a bottom - line support with small - cap stocks outperforming; bond yields are expected to reach new lows; the RMB exchange rate is expected to appreciate following the US dollar index; and commodities' performance will depend on event and policy rhythms [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Domestic Economy: Policy Support, Weak Domestic Demand - **Economic Overall Trend**: The economy is expected to be high in the first half and low in the second half. To counter the impact of exports, policies are targeted at consumption, infrastructure, and manufacturing. In the first half, with pre - emptive policy implementation, consumption, infrastructure, and manufacturing showed good growth, and the GDP growth rate in Q1 was 5.4%, with Q2 expected to be above 5%. In the second half, exports are likely to decline, and the probability of additional policies is low [9][10]. - **Consumption**: The increase in social retail sales is mainly supported by policies. After excluding the impact of the "trade - in" policy, the overall consumption has not improved significantly compared to 2024. Income expectations remain poor, and employment expectations are lower than income expectations. The consumption in Q3 is expected to maintain relatively high - speed growth, while there will be significant downward pressure in Q4 [11][16][17]. - **Real Estate**: The real estate market has basically reached the bottom, and the probability of a further sharp decline in the second half is low. However, the driving force for recovery is insufficient, and it is expected to continue to operate at the bottom, with a slight upward trend under optimistic expectations [19][21]. - **Infrastructure**: Infrastructure is expected to remain at a high level. The main sources of funds are two - fold policy funds and local government special bonds. In Q3, infrastructure will still have strong support, and it may decline in Q4 but remain at a high level overall. The new policy - based financial instruments may be introduced in September or October [34][35]. - **Exports**: Exports were high in the first half but are likely to decline in the second half due to factors such as over - drawn demand and the downward risk of the US economy [37][38]. - **Manufacturing**: Manufacturing is highly dependent on policy support. With the implementation of the equipment renewal policy, most of the funds have been allocated, and manufacturing is expected to remain at a high level at least in Q3 [40]. 3.2 Policy: Limited Fiscal Policy, Increased Monetary Policy - **Fiscal Policy**: The fiscal policy will mainly rely on existing measures with limited incremental input. The probability of introducing incremental fiscal policies is low unless there is a significant external shock. Key meetings in the second half of the year need to be monitored [42][43]. - **Monetary Policy**: Monetary policy will continue with reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. Based on historical experience and the current high real - interest - rate level, it is reasonable to expect an interest rate cut of 20bp this year [44][46]. 3.3 Three Major External Disturbances in the Second Half of the Year - **Tariff Negotiation Disturbance**: The outcomes of the US tariff negotiations on July 9 and the China - US tariff negotiations on August 12 will basically determine the export trend in the second half of the year [48]. - **OBBB Act Disturbance**: The OBBB Act will have an impact on the US economy and indirectly affect the domestic economy. The Senate version of the bill will increase the US debt, and if temporary measures are made permanent, the debt increase will be even greater. The bill may lead to a steeper yield curve and higher 10 - year US Treasury yields [49][51]. - **Fed Policy Rate Changes**: The first interest rate cut is expected to occur in September or later. The number of expected interest rate cuts within the year may be slightly overestimated considering the US economic resilience and Powell's style [54]. 3.4 Outlook for Major Asset Classes in the Second Half of the Year - **Stocks**: Stocks have a bottom - line support. Although they will face fundamental pressure, the Fed's interest rate cuts and domestic monetary policy will provide support. Small - cap stocks are expected to outperform [55]. - **Bonds**: Bond yields are expected to reach new lows. The bond market will be supported by the economic trend, and with lower supply pressure and a high probability of interest rate cuts, bond yields are expected to decline [58]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The US dollar index is expected to decline, and the RMB will appreciate following the US dollar index, which will help ease the pressure on export enterprises [60]. - **Commodities**: The performance of commodities will depend on event and policy rhythms. External tariff negotiations and domestic policy implementation schedules will affect commodity prices. Gold is expected to strengthen with support from the US debt issue and the approaching Fed interest rate cuts [63][64].

商品研究 | 走势评级: | 自糖 | 震荡 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 棉花- | 震荡 | 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com | 数据速览 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 外盘报价 | | 2025-07-02 | 2025-07-03 | 涨跌幅 | | | 美白糖（美元） | 15.56 | 16.37 | 5.21% | | | 美棉花（美元） | 68.64 | 68.43 | -0.31% | | 现货价格 | | 2025-07-02 | 2025-07-03 | 涨跌幅 | | | 白糖（南宁） | 6070.0 | 6060.0 | -0.16% | | | 白糖（昆明） | 5895.0 | 5880.0 | -0.25% | | | 棉花指数 328 | 3281 | 3280 | 0.26% | | | 棉花（新疆） | 15200.0 | 15150.0 | -0. ...

-------------------- 商品研究 -------------------- [Table_ReportType] 煤焦早报 ----------------- 期 走势评级： 焦炭——看涨 焦煤——看涨 刘开友—黑色研究员 从业资格证号：F03087895 投资咨询证号：Z0019509 联系电话：0571-28132535 邮箱：liukaiyou@cindasc.com 信达期货股份有限公司 CINDAFUTURESCO.LTD 杭州市萧山区钱江世纪城天人大厦19-20楼 邮编：311200 报告内容摘要: 报告日期： [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 7 月 4 日 [Table_Summary] 相关资讯： 焦煤： 现货提涨，期货反弹。蒙 5#主焦煤报 934 元/吨(-0)，现货持续提涨。活跃合约报 856 元/吨(+12.5)。基差 98 元/吨(-12.5)，9-1 月差-58 元/吨（-10）。 供给收缩，需求小幅下调。523 家矿山开工率报 83. 28%（+1.34），110 家洗煤厂 开工率报 59.72%(+0.45)。230 家独立焦企生产率报 7 ...

-------------------- 商品研究 -------------------- [Table_ReportType] 煤焦早报 ----------------- 期 走势评级： 焦炭——看涨 焦煤——看涨 刘开友—黑色研究员 从业资格证号：F03087895 投资咨询证号：Z0019509 联系电话：0571-28132535 邮箱：liukaiyou@cindasc.com 信达期货股份有限公司 CINDAFUTURESCO.LTD 杭州市萧山区钱江世纪城天人大厦19-20楼 邮编：311200 煤焦大幅上行，供改预期或有反复，多单择机加仓 报告内容摘要: 报告日期： [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 7 月 3 日 [Table_Summary] 相关资讯： 焦煤： 现货企稳，期货反弹。蒙 5#主焦煤报 868 元/吨(-0)，部分地区现货小幅提涨。活跃 合约报 843.5 元/吨(+29)。基差 44.5 元/吨(-29)，9-1 月差-48 元/吨（-5.5）。 供给收缩，需求小幅下调。523 家矿山开工率报 82.48%（-2.01），110 家洗煤厂 开工率报 5 ...