Chang Cheng Qi Huo

Search documents
纯碱、玻璃期货品种周报-20250512
Chang Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-05-12 06:17
2025.05.12-05.16 纯碱、玻璃 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 纯碱期货 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 中线行情分析 纯碱期货处于震荡阶段。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 近期部分企业开始检修,后续有企业检修,整体供应呈现下降趋势, 预计本周产量68+万吨,开工80+%左右。企业待发尚可,产销维持, 价格相对稳定态势。纯碱需求一般,低价成交为主,消费正常,开 工变化小。据了解,出口波动不大,相对稳健,有反馈好转。上周, 浮法日熔量15.55万吨,环比减少2100吨,光伏日熔量9.88万吨, 环比减少600吨。本周,浮法及光伏日熔量稳定。 综上所述,供应下降需求支撑,短期纯碱走势止跌维稳,价格坚挺。 2 建议观望 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 n 上周策略回顾 主力合约SA2509上周先抑后扬。上周纯碱产量75.51万吨,开 工率微降,装置检修致局部减量,新产能释放抵消影响。4 月30日库存降但处近五年同期最高。浮法玻璃日熔量降、光 伏玻璃升,重碱需求边际企稳,轻碱下游弱,预计纯碱走势 震荡运行,预期运行区间1250-1400,可考虑空 ...
电解铝期货品种周报-20250512
Chang Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-05-12 05:49
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. Core Viewpoints - The aluminum market is expected to fluctuate within a wide range, with the Shanghai Aluminum 2506 contract likely to remain around the 20,000 level in the short term. The market anticipates that the US may choose to ease policies and tariff confrontation with China before the US debt matures in June, which will limit the downside of aluminum prices. However, the transmission of domestic favorable policies takes time, and the market has strong expectations of weakening demand due to the change of seasons, the end of PV rush installation, and the decline in export orders, which will reduce the upward momentum of aluminum prices [5][13]. - The supply of bauxite is expected to increase in May, and the market may achieve a re - balance of supply and demand after July, with the price center expected to stabilize in the range of $70 - 75 per dry ton. The alumina market has a shortage due to maintenance, and the spot supply is tight, with a possible increase in spot prices in the future. The global primary aluminum production growth rate is only 1.9%, and the import of electrolytic aluminum has a theoretical loss, but the export volume is expected to gradually recover [10]. - The operating rates of different downstream aluminum processing sectors show a differentiated pattern. The overall operating rate of downstream processing enterprises is expected to rise slightly next week. The inventory of aluminum ingots may continue to rise in May, while the destocking speed of aluminum rods has significantly narrowed [12][25][26]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Mid - term Market Analysis - The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 19,000 - 21,000. The Shanghai Aluminum 2506 contract may have a slight rebound next week and generally remain around the 20,000 level [5]. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy: It was expected that Shanghai Aluminum would remain around the 20,000 level, and it was recommended to wait and see [7]. - This week's strategy: It is expected to continue to consolidate around the 20,000 level. The Shanghai Aluminum 2506 contract is temporarily seen in the range of 19,500 - 20,000, and it is advisable to wait and see or conduct short - band trading [8]. - Hedging suggestions for spot enterprises: It is advisable to purchase and stock up as needed [9]. Overall Viewpoint Bauxite Market - The supply of domestic bauxite has slightly improved compared with the previous period, and the overall supply of imported bauxite can basically meet the downstream demand. The bauxite supply is expected to continue to increase in May, and the market may achieve supply - demand re - balance after July, with the price center stabilizing at $70 - 75 per dry ton [10]. Alumina Market - As of May 8, the built - in alumina production capacity in China was 110.6 million tons, the operating capacity was 86.55 million tons, and the operating rate was 78.25%. Due to maintenance and production cuts of alumina enterprises, the market spot supply is tight, and there may be a rise in spot prices [10]. Production of Electrolytic Aluminum - The theoretical operating capacity of the electrolytic aluminum industry this week was 43.835 million tons, remaining stable compared with last week. The global primary aluminum production growth rate is only 1.9% [10]. Import and Export - The theoretical loss of electrolytic aluminum imports is about 1,500 yuan per ton, showing a slight expansion in the past two weeks. The export volume in May is expected to decline month - on - month, but it is expected to gradually recover through supply chain reconstruction and tariff cost sharing mechanisms [10]. Demand - The operating rates of different downstream sectors show a differentiated pattern. The operating rate of profiles decreased by 1.5 percentage points to 57.5%; the operating rate of aluminum plate, strip and foil decreased; the operating rate of aluminum cables increased by 1.4 percentage points to 65.6%; the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy increased by 0.2 percentage points to 55.2%, and the operating rate of recycled aluminum increased by 2.5 percentage points to 55.0% [12]. Inventory - The latest social inventory of aluminum ingots is 619,000 tons, an increase of about 1% compared with last week and about 20% lower than the same period last year. The inventory may continue to rise in May. The inventory of aluminum rods is 150,100 tons, a decrease of about 2% compared with last week and about 27% lower than the same period last year. The LME electrolytic aluminum inventory has been falling slightly since May 2024 and is currently at a low level since 1990, but there may be an inflection point [12]. Profit and Market Expectation - The average cash cost of the domestic alumina industry is about 2,600 yuan per ton, and the profit is about 300 yuan per ton. The average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 17,100 yuan per ton, and the theoretical profit is about 2,500 yuan per ton. The aluminum price is expected to rise slightly next week, with an average price of about 19,700 [13]. Important Industrial Link Price Changes - The prices of most aluminum - related products have changed. For example, the price of bauxite has generally declined, the price of alumina in Henan has increased slightly, and the price of electrolytic aluminum has decreased [14]. Important Industrial Link Inventory Changes - The domestic bauxite port inventory has increased for the fourth consecutive week, the alumina inventory has slightly decreased, the social inventory of aluminum ingots has increased, the inventory of aluminum rods has decreased, and the LME aluminum inventory has continued to decline slightly [16][18]. Supply - Demand Situation - The profits of domestic alumina and electrolytic aluminum industries this week are about 300 yuan per ton and 2,500 yuan per ton respectively. The theoretical import loss of electrolytic aluminum is about 1,500 yuan per ton [20]. - The overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises has increased by 0.3 percentage points to 61.9%, showing a differentiated pattern. The operating rate is expected to rise slightly next week [25][26]. Futures - Spot Structure - The current price structure of Shanghai Aluminum futures is neutral. The market is bearish on the demand in the second and third quarters but expects a rebound in demand at the end of the year [32]. Spread Structure - The LME (0 - 3) is at a discount of $9.4 per ton. The A00 aluminum ingot spot is at a discount of 0 yuan per ton. The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 is about - 3,190 yuan per ton [34][36]. Market Capital Situation - The net long position of LME aluminum has slightly rebounded, and the short - term overseas aluminum price is under pressure. The net long position of Shanghai Futures Exchange electrolytic aluminum has also slightly increased, and the short - term market is expected to be volatile [40][43].
豆粕、豆油期货品种周报-20250512
Chang Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-05-12 03:10
2025.05.12-05.16 豆粕、豆油 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 豆粕期货 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 建议观望。 3 中线策略建议 中线行情分析 品种交易策略 n 上周策略回顾 豆粕期价整体趋势处于下行通道中,资金方面较为偏空。 M2509预计短期内弱势震荡,运行区间:2850-3050,可考虑 区间操作。 中线趋势来看,豆粕主力处于弱势震荡整理的阶段。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 据Mysteel数据:第18周油厂大豆实际压榨量152.3万吨,开机率42.81%; 大豆库存474.64万吨,较上周增加15.16万吨,增幅3.30%;豆粕库存 8.21万吨,较上周增加0.73万吨,增幅9.76%。国内油厂大豆库存持续回 升,开机率逐步恢复,但区域性供需错配延缓豆粕累库,库存仍处低位。 巴西大豆收割尾声叠加集中到港强化供应宽松格局。尽管阶段性低库存 对价格形成支撑,但南美集中上市及国内供应增加预期压制上行空间, 综合来看豆粕期价处于弱势震荡整理阶段。 2 n 本周策略建议 豆粕期价整体趋势处于下行通道中,资金方面略微偏多。M2509 ...
黄金、白银期货品种周报-20250512
Chang Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-05-12 03:06
黄金期货 2025.05.12-05.16 黄金、白银 期货品种周报 01 P A R T Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 中线行情分析 沪金期货整体趋势处在上升通道中,当前可能处于趋势尾声。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 上周美联储召开议息会议,维持基准利率不变,并指出关税对通胀的影 响较大且不确定,美元指数止跌反弹,黄金高位震荡。中长期支撑逻辑: 美国财政赤字及全球央行购金仍提供基本面支撑。后续需关注美联储政 策路径、地缘冲突与关税进展。 2 建议观望。 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 n 上周策略回顾 黄金短期回调压力犹存,等待时机配置买入看涨期权。黄金主力 合约2506下方支撑:758-765,上方压力829-836。 n 本周策略建议 黄金短期回调,等待时机配置买入看涨期权。黄金主力合约2508 下方支撑:776-785,上方压力828-837。 品种诊断情况 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 相关数据情况 精选指标情况 本报告数据来源为Wind、Myste ...
工业硅、碳酸锂期货品种周报-20250512
Chang Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-05-12 03:03
2025.05.12-05.16 工业硅、碳酸锂 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 工业硅期货 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 中线行情分析 工业硅期货价格维持偏弱走势。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 2 工业硅受到供需基本面不佳的影响,价格持续走低。尽管有部分企业减产, 但由于库存高企,去库速度缓慢,导致价格承压。下游需求如多晶硅、有 机硅和铝合金等行业的需求疲软,进一步压制了工业硅的价格。长城期货 AI智能投询品种诊断报告显示工业硅价格日线处于下行通道中。 工业硅市场供需矛盾依然存在,建议观望。 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 n 上周策略回顾 价格将继续承压,建议观望。激进的投资者可考虑少 量买入看跌期权。 n 本周策略建议 维持偏弱走势,建议观望。 相关数据情况 截止至2024年04月19日,上海期货交易所阴极铜库存为300,045吨,较上一周增加322吨。从季节性角度分析,当前库存较近五年相比维持在较高水平。 SHF阴极铜库存走势 SHF阴极铜库存季节性分析 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 相关数据情况 截止至20 ...
螺纹钢、铁矿石期货品种周报-20250512
Chang Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-05-12 03:03
2025.05.12-05.16 螺纹钢、铁矿石 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 螺纹钢期货 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 长城期货AI智能大数据量化策略模型分析螺纹钢期货主力合约本周 运行区间为2950至3080,建议关注3080一线的压力位置。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 螺纹钢周度产量233万吨,表观消费量214万吨,主要钢厂库存188万 吨,社会库存685万吨。长城期货AI智能投询品种诊断报告显示螺纹钢 期货价格日线级别处于下行通道中。 2 钢材现货客户可考虑分步实施卖出保值策略。 中线策略建议 3 中线行情分析 品种交易策略 钢材现货客户可考虑分步实施卖出保值策略。 n 上周策略回顾 n 本周策略建议 现货客户可考虑分步实施卖出保值策略,参考运行区间为 2950至3080,可留意3080一线的压力位置。 n 现货企业套期保值建议 钢材生产企业可考虑分步实施50%现货比例的卖出保值策略。 相关数据情况 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 相关数据情况 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 相 ...
纯碱、玻璃期货品种周报-20250506
Chang Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-05-06 11:01
01 P A R T 纯碱期货 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 2025.05.06-05.09 纯碱、玻璃 期货品种周报 中线行情分析 纯碱期货处于震荡阶段。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 主 力 合 约 S A 2 5 0 9 上 周 呈 现 " 先 抑 后 扬 " 态 势 。 上 周 纯 碱 周 产 量 75.51万吨,开工率89.44%,环比微降0.06%。东北阜丰、天津碱 厂等装置检修导致局部供应减量,但远兴阿碱及金山新产能持续释 放,抵消检修影响。截至4月30日,全国库存总量679.67万吨,较 上周减少1.88万吨,但仍处近五年同期最高水平。浮法玻璃日熔量 1 5 . 7 8 万 吨 ( 环 比 - 0 . 4 4 % ) , 光 伏 玻 璃 日 熔 量 9 . 7 3 万 吨 ( 环 比 +1.23%),重碱需求边际企稳但增量有限。轻碱下游开工率维持低 位,终端企业按需采购,贸易商囤货意愿不足。预计纯碱走势震荡 运行。 2 中线策略建议 3 建议观望 品种交易策略 n 上周策略回顾 近期纯碱装置检修少,供应高,五月上旬预计检修增产量降, 月 ...
黄金、白银期货品种周报-20250506
Chang Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-05-06 09:50
2025.05.06-05.09 黄金、白银 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 黄金期货 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 中线行情分析 沪金期货整体趋势处在上升通道中,当前可能处于趋势尾声。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 近期由于宏观经济数据边际改善削弱避险需求、贸易摩擦短期缓和叠加 技术性调整,导致了黄金价格高位回落。但中长期支撑逻辑未变:美国 财政赤字及全球央行购金仍提供基本面支撑。需关注5月非农数据及美 联储缩表节奏变化,若地缘风险再起或通胀反弹,贵金属可能重获上行 动能。 2 建议观望。 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 n 上周策略回顾 五一长假临近,注意风险,建议观望。 n 本周策略建议 黄金短期回调压力犹存,等待时机配置买入看涨期权。黄金主力 合约2506下方支撑:758-765,上方压力829-836。 品种诊断情况 | 黄金(au) v | | 黄金(au) v | | --- | --- | --- | | 品和立新 机构观点 盈利席位 主力资金 · | | | | | 品和诊断 | 机构观点 盈利席位 主力资記 | | - AI品种诊 ...
豆粕、豆油期货品种周报-20250506
Chang Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-05-06 09:41
2025.05.06-05.09 豆粕、豆油 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 豆粕期货 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 中线行情分析 中线趋势来看,豆粕主力处于宽幅震荡的阶段。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 据Mysteel数据:第17周油厂大豆实际压榨量141.22万吨,开机率为 39.7%;大豆库存459.48万吨,较上周增加33.57万吨,增幅7.88%;豆粕 库存7.48万吨,较上周减少5.07万吨,减幅40.40%。节后随着大豆大量 集中到港,油厂开工率预计陆续恢复正常,大豆压榨量也将显著增加, 阶段性供应紧张局面逐步缓解。但目前下游饲料企业豆粕库存较低,节 后备库需求叠加全球贸易政策的不确定性。综合来看豆粕期价或延续宽 幅震荡走势。 2 建议观望。 3 中线策略建议 品种交易策略 n 上周策略回顾 豆粕期价趋势整体横盘震荡的阶段,资金方面较为偏空。在 现货偏紧和预期宽松的影响下,M2509预计延续宽幅震荡, 运行区间:2900-3100,可考虑区间操作。 n 本周策略建议 豆粕期价整体趋势处于下行通道中,资金方面较为偏空。M2509 预计短 ...
螺纹钢、铁矿石期货品种周报-20250506
Chang Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-05-06 07:11
2025.05.06-05.09 螺纹钢、铁矿石 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 螺纹钢期货 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 中线行情分析 长城期货AI智能大数据量化策略模型分析螺纹钢期货主力合约2510 本周运行区间为3030至3180,建议关注3180一线的压力区间。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 目录 螺纹钢周度产量233万吨,表观消费量291万吨,主要钢厂库存173万 吨,社会库存694万吨。长城期货AI智能投询品种诊断报告显示螺纹钢 期货价格日线级别处于下行通道中。 2 钢材现货客户可考虑分步实施卖出保值策略。 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 n 上周策略回顾 钢材现货客户可考虑分步实施卖出保值策略。 n 本周策略建议 现货客户可考虑在3150至3050区域分步实施卖出保值策略。 n 现货企业套期保值建议 钢材生产企业可考虑在3150至3050区域分步实施50%现货比 例的卖出保值策略。 相关数据情况 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 相关数据情况 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 本报告数据 ...