Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The main contract of rebar futures is in the first week of the upward channel, and the main contract of iron ore futures is also in the first week of the upward channel [7][34]. - For rebar, spot - demand customers can consider a step - by - step 50% buy - hedging strategy; for iron ore, spot - demand customers can consider a 50% buy - hedging strategy [11][37]. 3. Summary by Directory Rebar Futures - **Mid - line Market Analysis** - The main contract of rebar futures is in the first week of the upward channel. The weekly output is 215 million tons, the apparent consumption is 193 million tons, the inventory of major steel mills is 172 million tons, and the social inventory is 725 million tons. Spot - demand customers can consider a step - by - step buy - hedging strategy [7]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - The main contract of rebar futures is in the third week of the downward ladder. According to the model, it has entered the first week of the mid - line upward channel. Spot - demand customers can consider a 50% buy - hedging strategy [10][11]. - **Related Data Situation** - The data sources are Wind, Mysteel, and the trading consultation department of Great Wall Futures [15]. Iron Ore Futures - **Mid - line Market Analysis** - The main contract of iron ore futures is in the first week of the upward channel. The global shipment volume last week was 2762 million tons, the arrival volume at 45 major ports in China was 2453 million tons, the inventory of steel enterprises was 8996 million tons, and the inventory at major domestic ports was 13842 million tons. Spot - demand customers can consider a long - hedging strategy [34]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - Last week, the mid - line price of iron ore was in a stable consolidation stage. This week, spot - demand customers can consider a 50% buy - hedging strategy [37]. - **Related Data Situation** - The data sources are Wind, Mysteel, and the trading consultation department of Great Wall Futures [17].

Group 1: Gold Futures Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is in an upward channel and may be at the end of the trend. The price showed a volatile pattern of "soaring - retracting - recovering" this week due to the "expectation gap" after the Fed's interest rate cut and the offset of high inventory by central bank gold purchases and ETF fund inflows. In the long - term, the weakening of the US dollar credit, continuous central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical risks drive the price, with surging investment demand providing multiple supports [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Mid - line Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is in an upward channel and may be at the end of the trend [7]. - **Trend Judgment Logic**: This week, the gold futures price showed a "soaring - retracting - recovering" pattern due to the "expectation gap" after the Fed's interest rate cut and the offset of high inventory by central bank gold purchases and ETF fund inflows. Next week, key factors include the Fed's policy path guidance, US economic data verification, inventory destocking rhythm, and global risk - aversion sentiment. In the long - term, the weakening of the US dollar credit, continuous central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical risks drive the price, with surging investment demand providing multiple supports [7]. - **Mid - line Strategy Suggestion**: It is recommended to wait and see [8]. 2. Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The gold contract 2512 was expected to be mainly in a high - level volatile and strong operation, with the lower support level at 795 - 814, and investors were warned of the risk of chasing high prices [11]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The gold contract 2512 is expected to be mainly in high - level volatility, with the lower support level at 805 - 812 and the upper resistance level at 838 - 845. Key factors to focus on are the Fed's policy path guidance and US economic data verification [12]. 3. Relevant Data Situation - Data on Shanghai Gold futures price trends, SPDR gold ETF holdings, COMEX gold inventory, US 10 - year Treasury yield, US dollar index, US dollar against offshore RMB, gold - silver ratio, Shanghai Gold basis, and gold internal - external price difference are presented in graphical form [20][23][25] Group 2: Silver Futures Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The overall trend of Shanghai Silver futures is steadily rising and is currently at the end of the trend. The price showed a volatile pattern of "soaring, retracting, and then rebounding" last week, affected by the "buy - on - expectation, sell - on - reality" effect after the Fed's interest rate cut expectation and the bottom support from continuous inventory destocking. In the short - term, there is a risk of a pullback after "positive realization". In the long - term, attention should be paid to the resonance of industrial demand and financial attributes, and silver may have higher elasticity than gold under the combination of "interest rate cut + demand recovery" in the fourth quarter if the soft - landing expectation is fulfilled [33]. Summary by Directory 1. Mid - line Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: The overall trend of Shanghai Silver futures is steadily rising and is currently at the end of the trend [33]. - **Trend Judgment Logic**: Last week, the silver futures price showed a "soaring, retracting, and then rebounding" pattern, affected by the "buy - on - expectation, sell - on - reality" effect after the Fed's interest rate cut expectation and the bottom support from continuous inventory destocking. In the short - term, if the Fed is cautious about the 2026 interest rate cut expectation or the US economic data is unexpectedly strong, silver may test the 9800 yuan/ton support level again. In the long - term, if the soft - landing expectation is fulfilled in the fourth quarter, silver may have higher elasticity than gold under the combination of "interest rate cut + demand recovery" [33]. - **Mid - line Strategy Suggestion**: It is recommended to wait and see [33]. 2. Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The silver contract 2512 was expected to be mainly in a strong operation, with the lower support range at 9500 - 9800, and investors were warned of the risk of chasing high prices [36]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The silver contract 2512 is expected to be mainly in a strong operation, with the lower support range at 9500 - 9800. Key factors to focus on are the Fed's policy path guidance, US economic data verification, and changes in silver industrial demand expectations [37]. 3. Relevant Data Situation - Data on Shanghai Silver futures price trends, SLV silver ETF holdings, COMEX silver inventory, Shanghai Silver basis, and silver internal - external price difference are presented in graphical form [44][46][48]

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a weekly report on soybean meal and soybean oil futures from September 22 - 26, 2025 [1][2] Group 2: Soybean Meal Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term trend: The soybean meal主力 is in a wide - range oscillation phase. In the 37th week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.3604 million tons, with an operating rate of 66.35%. The soybean meal inventory was 1.1644 million tons, an increase of 28,200 tons or 2.48% from the previous week. High inventory may pressure the basis of major coastal areas. Feed mills are starting to stock up, and the market sentiment is mainly wait - and - see. The price is expected to continue the wide - range oscillation [7] 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The overall trend of soybean meal futures prices was sideways, with more bullish funds. M2601 was expected to oscillate between 2980 - 3200 [10] - This week's strategy suggestion: The overall trend of soybean meal futures prices is sideways, with more bullish funds. M2601 is expected to oscillate between 2900 - 3200 [11] 3. Variety Diagnosis - The variety diagnosis shows that the multi - empty flow is 82.4, indicating a strong bullish sentiment among the main forces; the capital energy is - 48.1, meaning a small outflow of main funds; the multi - empty divergence is 95.0, suggesting a high risk of market reversal [14] Group 3: Soybean Oil Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term trend: The soybean oil主力 is in an oscillation phase. In the 37th week, the actual soybean oil output of 125 oil mills was 448,500 tons, an increase of 10,700 tons from the previous week. The commercial inventory of soybean oil in key national regions was 1.2512 million tons, a decrease of 100 tons from the previous week. The spot market trading is light, and the double - festival stocking is not obvious. High inventory may see a decline around mid - to - late October, and the price is expected to continue to oscillate [29] 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The overall trend of soybean oil futures prices was sideways, with slightly bearish funds. Y2601 was expected to continue the oscillation pattern in the short term [32] - This week's strategy suggestion: The overall trend of soybean oil futures prices is sideways, with more bullish funds. Y2601 is expected to continue the oscillation pattern in the short term [32] 3. Variety Diagnosis - The variety diagnosis shows that the multi - empty flow is 58.4, indicating a relatively bullish sentiment among the main forces; the capital energy is 2.8, meaning the capital is basically stable; the multi - empty divergence is 75.3, suggesting a certain risk of market reversal [35]

Group 1: Report Summary - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: The report analyzes the mid - line trends, trading strategies, and relevant data of soda ash and glass futures. It suggests a wait - and - see approach for both soda ash and glass futures due to market uncertainties such as high supply, high inventory, and weak demand [6][29] Group 2: Soda Ash Futures Mid - line Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: Soda ash futures are in a volatile stage. The market is overall stable with partial price increases. Supply has minor fluctuations, and downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs. Inventory is decreasing, but high supply and high inventory limit the rebound space. The short - term is expected to continue narrow - range fluctuations [6] - **Mid - line Strategy Suggestion**: It is recommended to wait and see [6] Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The soda ash market continued narrow - range fluctuations last week. Supply was loose, demand was weak, and inventory was still high. The futures market declined with pressure on the fundamentals. It was expected that SA2601 would operate in the range of 1200 - 1350, and waiting and seeing was advisable [9] - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The soda ash market was stable with partial small increases last week. Futures were in a strong - side volatile state. Macro and policy expectations provided support, but high supply and high inventory restricted the increase. SA2601 is expected to operate in the range of 1200 - 1350, and waiting and seeing is recommended [10] Relevant Data - The data includes China's weekly soda ash开工率, production, light - and heavy - type inventory, basis, and ammonia - soda process production cost in North China. The main force in the market is relatively bullish, funds are basically stable, and the risk of a market turn is relatively high [11][15][21] Group 3: Glass Futures Mid - line Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: Glass is in a volatile trend. The domestic float glass market was overall stable last week with regional price differences. Supply changed little, and terminal demand was weak. The futures market first fell, then rose, and then fell back. Continued upward momentum is restricted by insufficient spot follow - up [29] - **Mid - line Strategy Suggestion**: It is recommended to hold an empty position and wait and see [29] Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The float glass market had narrow - range fluctuations last week. Some areas saw small price increases, but downstream demand was mainly for rigid needs. The futures market first rose and then fell. It was expected that FG2601 would operate in the range of 1150 - 1300, and holding an empty position and waiting and seeing was advisable [32] - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The float glass market showed regional differences last week. The futures market rebounded, but demand was still weak. Inventory performance varied. FG2601 is expected to operate in the range of 1150 - 1300, and holding an empty position and waiting and seeing is recommended [33] Relevant Data - The data covers China's weekly float glass production,开工率, production cost and gross profit of the float process using natural gas as fuel, basis, and ending inventory. The main force in the market is strongly bullish, main funds are flowing in slightly, and the risk of a market turn is relatively high [34][38][49]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The aluminum market shows a large - range oscillation tendency. After the Fed's interest rate cut in September, the macro - driving force weakens, but the US PMI stabilizes from a decline, and China's anti - involution policy continues to advance, keeping the macro - situation generally positive. In terms of supply and demand, there is an oversupply of upstream alumina and a tight balance in domestic electrolytic aluminum. In October, there is still a slight upward momentum in the peak season, and it may enter a wide - range oscillation state from November to December [5][11]. - The overall price of aluminum may be under pressure and oscillate. The macro - situation is dull, the supply is stable due to the capacity ceiling, the pre - National Day stocking demand limits the downside, but the demand gap cannot be filled by partial downstream chasing and restocking. Meanwhile, the social inventory continues to accumulate, warehouse shipments are at a low level in recent years, and the spot premium shows a discount, putting pressure on prices [11]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - **Mid - line Trend Judgment**: The market is in a large - range oscillation. After the Fed's interest rate cut in September, the macro - driving force weakens, but the US PMI stabilizes from a decline, and China's anti - involution policy continues to advance, keeping the macro - situation generally positive. In terms of supply and demand, there is an oversupply of upstream alumina and a tight balance in domestic electrolytic aluminum. In October, there is still a slight upward momentum in the peak season, and it may enter a wide - range oscillation state from November to December. It is advisable to hold medium - term long positions below 20,000 [5]. - **Variety Trading Strategy**: - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The support for SHFE aluminum 2511 in the coming week was about 20,800, and the resistance was about 21,400. Hold long positions with a light position [7]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The support for SHFE aluminum 2511 in the coming week is about 20,500, and the resistance is about 20,900. Conduct short - term trading. Spot enterprises are recommended to increase inventory appropriately [8]. 3.2 Overall Viewpoints - **Aluminum Ore Market**: Recently, the price of Guinean bauxite has tightened seasonally due to the rainy - season shipping. After the rainy season ends, the ore price is expected to have a seasonal correction without unexpected events, but there is an obvious support at 70 US dollars/ton. In the fourth quarter, the domestic ore output will be marginally repaired, but the overall supply is difficult to improve significantly due to stricter environmental protection and supervision [9]. - **Alumina Market**: As of September 12, the domestic alumina production capacity was about 112.55 million tons, the operating capacity was about 96.8 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate was about 86.23% (85.21% last week), which is at a high level since 2022. Since late August, the smelting profit has slightly declined. Now the spot price has dropped to the high - marginal cost, increasing the risk of alumina plant production cuts [9]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: As of September 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is approaching the policy ceiling of 45 million tons, the operating capacity is 44.1 million tons, and the operating rate is as high as 98%, with limited room for further production increase. The new production capacity in the fourth quarter only comes from 100,000 tons of Chalco Qinghai (transfer of Yunnan's quota) and a 250,000 - ton replacement project of Xinjiang Nongliushi Aluminum Industry. The net increase for the whole year is expected to be less than 500,000 tons. The domestic electrolytic aluminum output in 2025 is expected to be 43.96 - 44.5 million tons, with a year - on - year growth rate dropping to 1.5% - 2.3%. The output in the fourth quarter may remain high but is difficult to increase significantly [9]. - **Import and Export**: Currently, the theoretical loss of electrolytic aluminum imports is about 1,800 yuan/ton (about 1,400 yuan/ton last week). According to customs data, aluminum exports have generally rebounded since March this year and are currently at a relatively high level in recent years. Although the export growth rate in the second half of the year is expected to decline compared with the first half, the overall resilience is still expected [9]. - **Demand**: - **Aluminum Profiles**: The domestic aluminum profile industry's operating rate increased by 0.6 percentage points to 54.6% this week. The operating rate of construction profiles remains low, while industrial profiles have received more new orders recently in the traditional peak season of September, supporting the operating rate. Most enterprises have not determined the National Day holiday arrangements, and some enterprises in Sichuan and Shandong plan to take about 3 days off [10]. - **Aluminum Sheets, Strips, and Foil**: The operating rate of leading aluminum sheet enterprises decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 68.2% this week. In the short term, the operating rate of leading aluminum sheet enterprises is expected to remain stable or oscillate upward. The operating rate of leading aluminum foil enterprises remains stable at 71.9%, and the slowdown of leading enterprises is obvious. In the short term, supported by the peak - season effect, the operating rate of leading aluminum foil enterprises is expected to oscillate between 72% - 75% [10]. - **Aluminum Cables**: The operating rate of the aluminum cable industry remained stable at 65.2% this week. All leading manufacturers are busy. As the National Day holiday approaches, the purchasing intensity of downstream manufacturers is expected to increase further, and the operating rate is expected to rise slowly next week [10]. - **Alloys**: The operating rate of the primary aluminum alloy sector decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 57.4% this week, and the industry's production capacity release has slightly converged. Although the industry's operating rate is oscillating and adjusting in the short term, SMM still has an optimistic expectation for the peak season. The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum enterprises increased by 0.4 percentage points to 55.9% this week, mainly benefiting from the alleviation of raw material procurement pressure and the moderate recovery of orders. The short - term industry operating rate will maintain a slight upward trend, but raw material shortages and policy factors will continue to suppress the capacity recovery elasticity [10]. - **Inventory**: - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots is 640,000 tons, an increase of about 3% from last week and about 14% lower than the same period last year, continuing the inventory - building trend since mid - July. This week's inventory increase is mainly due to the decrease in warehouse shipments, but the inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants has decreased. The increase in electrolytic aluminum social inventory is expected to be limited in the near future. The aluminum rod inventory is 130,200 tons, basically stable compared with last week and about 9% higher than the same period last year. The LME aluminum inventory has risen again, continuing the inventory - building pattern since the end of June. As there are signs of the Russia - Ukraine war ending through negotiations, the previous market's hidden inventory is gradually becoming explicit, and the LME inventory is still likely to accumulate in the future [10][16]. - **Alumina**: The overall alumina inventory continues to accumulate, and the increase mainly comes from the inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants and alumina plants. The port inventory is still at a low level in recent years [16]. - **Profit**: - **Alumina**: The average full - cost of the Chinese alumina industry is about 2,840 yuan/ton, and the profit is about 200 yuan/ton (about 270 yuan/ton last week) [11]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 17,200 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is about 3,600 yuan/ton (3,700 yuan/ton last week). The profit is at a relatively high level [11]. - **Market Expectation**: The macro - situation is dull, the supply is stable due to the capacity ceiling, the pre - National Day stocking demand limits the downside, but the demand gap cannot be filled by partial downstream chasing and restocking. Meanwhile, the social inventory continues to accumulate, warehouse shipments are at a low level in recent years, and the spot premium shows a discount, putting pressure on prices [11]. - **Personal View**: After the Fed's interest rate cut in September, the macro - driving force weakens, but the US PMI stabilizes from a decline, and China's anti - involution policy continues to advance, keeping the macro - situation generally positive. In terms of supply and demand, there is an oversupply of upstream alumina and a tight balance in domestic electrolytic aluminum. In October, there is still a slight upward momentum in the peak season, and it may enter a wide - range oscillation state from November to December. The aluminum price may still be under pressure and consolidate in the coming week. The support for SHFE aluminum 2511 is about 20,500, and the resistance is about 20,900 [11]. - **Key Concerns**: 1. Changes in domestic social inventory. 2. Whether there are disturbances at the Guinean ore end. 3. The implementation of China's anti - involution - related policies [11]. 3.3 Important Industry Link Price Changes - This week, bauxite prices remained stable. As the rainy season in Guinea is approaching recovery and there are frequent policy - related disturbance news, and the long - term contract price in the fourth quarter has not been finalized, the increase in the supply of imported bauxite has become the focus of the market. Coal prices rose slightly, driven by pre - holiday stocking. Under strict current production capacity control, the pit - mouth price is resistant to decline. Seasonally, the single - electricity price in Yunnan is about 0.382 yuan, and it is more likely to rise in October. This week, the alumina price continued to decline slightly. Due to oversupply and inventory accumulation, the spot price is under pressure [12]. 3.4 Important Industry Link Inventory Changes - This week, the domestic port bauxite inventory slightly rebounded, continuing to accumulate to a recent high since the beginning of 2025 and stabilizing at a high level after August. However, the bauxite inventory of alumina plants is still increasing. According to DISR's forecast, the export volume of Australian bauxite is expected to remain stable in the fourth quarter, and the domestic bauxite supply is abundant. The overall alumina inventory continues to accumulate, and the increase mainly comes from the inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants and alumina plants, while the port inventory is still at a low level in recent years [16]. 3.5 Supply and Demand Situation - **Profit**: The average full - cost of the domestic alumina industry this week is about 2,840 yuan/ton, the profit is about 200 yuan/ton (about 270 yuan/ton last week), the theoretical import profit of alumina is about 150 yuan/ton (120 yuan/ton last week); the electrolytic aluminum production cost is about 17,200 yuan/ton (about 17,500 yuan/ton last week), the theoretical profit is about 3,600 yuan/ton (3,700 yuan/ton last week); the theoretical import loss of electrolytic aluminum is about 1,800 yuan/ton (about 1,400 yuan/ton last week) [18]. - **Downstream Processing**: The operating rate of domestic leading aluminum downstream processing enterprises increased by 0.1 percentage points to 62.2% this week, 1.3 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The operating of leading primary alloy enterprises is stable, but small and medium - sized enterprises' operating rates have adjusted due to demand fluctuations; the operating rate of sampled aluminum sheet enterprises decreased slightly this week; the operating rate of aluminum cables remained stable; the operating rate of profiles increased slightly, mainly because industrial profiles are supported by orders from the automotive and photovoltaic industries; the demand for packaging foil is rigid but has limited growth; the operating rate of the recycled aluminum industry increased slightly. The weekly operating rate of downstream aluminum processing is expected to continue to increase slightly next week [22][23]. 3.6 Futures - Spot Structure - The current Shanghai aluminum futures price structure is weak [28]. 3.7 Spread Structure - This week, the spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 is about - 2,040 yuan/ton, compared with - 1,940 yuan/ton last week. The current spread between primary aluminum and alloy is at a relatively low level in recent years, and the current spread has a moderately strong impact on electrolytic aluminum [35][36]. 3.8 Market Capital Situation - **LME Aluminum**: After remaining stable for the previous four weeks, the net long position of funds in the latest period has significantly increased, mainly related to the Fed's interest rate cut in September. According to the dot - plot, there will be two more interest rate cuts this year, and the overall market is still bullish [38]. - **SHFE Electrolytic Aluminum**: This week, the net long position of the main contract slightly declined, and both the long and short camps slightly reduced their positions; the net long position of funds mainly for financial speculation slightly reduced. The funds mainly from mid - and downstream enterprises changed from a slight net long position to a slight net short position and have been in a stalemate between long and short recently. Judging from the performance of the current main funds, the market may oscillate and be under pressure in the coming week [41].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - The soda ash futures market is in a volatile phase with a supply - demand imbalance. The market is expected to remain weak in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see [6][9]. - The glass futures market is also in a volatile trend. High inventory and slow demand recovery restrict market improvement, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [29][32]. 3. Summary by Directory Soda Ash Futures - **Mid - line Market Analysis** - The soda ash futures are in a volatile stage. The domestic soda ash market was weak last week, with prices under pressure. Supply increased slightly while demand remained weak. Inventory was high and de - stocking was slow. The market is expected to continue its weak trend in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [6]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - Last week, the soda ash market was weak. The futures first rose and then fell. This week, the market is still expected to be under pressure. The operating range of Soda Ash 2601 is expected to be 1200 - 1350, and it is advisable to wait and see [9]. - **Related Data Situation** - Data includes weekly开工率,产量,轻质库存,重质库存,基差, and ammonia - alkali production cost in North China. The variety diagnosis shows that the main force is relatively bearish, the capital is basically stable, and the risk of a market reversal is high [10][15][20]. Glass Futures - **Mid - line Market Analysis** - The glass market is in a volatile trend. The domestic float glass market was stable last week with some local price increases lacking momentum. High inventory and slow demand recovery restricted the market. The supply increased slightly, and inventory accumulated. The futures market is expected to continue its weak volatility, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [29]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - Last week, the float glass spot market was stable with some local small increases. The futures first rose and then fell. This week, the market is expected to continue its weak volatility. The expected operating range of Glass 2601 is 1150 - 1300, and it is advisable to stay on the sidelines [32][33]. - **Related Data Situation** - Data includes weekly产量,开工率, production cost, production gross profit,基差, and期末库存. The variety diagnosis shows that the main force is strongly bullish, the capital outflow is significant, and the risk of a market reversal is high [35][38][43].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a weekly report on industrial silicon and lithium carbonate futures from September 8 - 12, 2025 [1][2] Group 2: Industrial Silicon Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Industrial silicon futures are currently in a wide - range oscillatory state. As of September 5, the price of 421 industrial silicon was 8750 yuan/ton in Xinjiang, 9700 yuan/ton in Yunnan, and 9900 yuan/ton in Sichuan. The AI intelligent investment consulting variety diagnosis report from Great Wall Futures shows that the daily price of industrial silicon is in a sideways phase, and there is no obvious long - or short - bias among the main players. It is expected that the industrial silicon 2511 contract will operate in the range of 7700 - 10000 yuan [6][7] 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy: Consider grid trading within the range. This week's strategy: As industrial silicon operates in a wide range, mainly go long on dips [10][11] 3. Relevant Data - As of April 19, 2024, the cathode copper inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 300,045 tons, an increase of 322 tons from the previous week. Seasonally, the current inventory is at a relatively high level compared to the past five years. The LME copper inventory was 122,125 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 25.73%. Seasonally, the current inventory is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [13][17] Group 3: Lithium Carbonate Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Lithium carbonate futures are currently in a wide - range oscillatory state. Last week, the spot price of lithium carbonate declined. As of September 5, the market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 74,000 yuan/ton, and the market price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 71,850 yuan/ton. The AI intelligent investment consulting variety diagnosis report from Great Wall Futures shows that the daily price of lithium carbonate futures is in a downward channel, and the main players show a strong bearish sentiment. It is expected that the lithium carbonate 2511 contract will operate in the range of 65,000 - 100,000 yuan [32][33] 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy: Consider grid trading within the range. This week's strategy: Also consider grid trading within the range [36] 3. Relevant Data - As of April 19, 2024, the electrolytic aluminum inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 228,537 tons, a decrease of 3,228 tons from the previous week. Seasonally, the current inventory is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years. The LME aluminum inventory was 504,000 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 66.03%. Seasonally, the current inventory is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [39][40]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is in an upward channel, possibly at the end of the trend, and it is recommended to wait and see [7][8]. - The overall trend of Shanghai Silver futures is steadily rising, currently at the end of the trend, and it is also recommended to wait and see [32][33]. Summary by Section Gold Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is in an upward channel, possibly at the end of the trend. Last week, the gold price was supported by the strengthened expectation of a Fed rate cut in September, geopolitical and policy uncertainties, the continued trend of central bank gold purchases, and the weakening of the US dollar index. This week, the main influencing factors include the US August CPI data, the preview of the Fed's September FOMC meeting, the trend of the US dollar index, and geopolitical risks [7]. - It is recommended to wait and see [8]. 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week, the main gold contract 2510 was expected to fluctuate mainly, with the upper resistance level at 794 - 803 and the lower support level at 766 - 775 [11]. - This week, the gold contract 2512 is expected to fluctuate strongly at a high level, with the upper resistance level at 821 - 840 and the lower support level at 795 - 814 [12]. 3. Relevant Data Situation - Relevant data includes the price trends of Shanghai Gold and COMEX gold, SPDR Gold ETF holdings, COMEX gold inventory, US 10 - year Treasury yield, US dollar index, US dollar - offshore RMB exchange rate, gold - silver ratio, Shanghai Gold basis, and gold internal - external price difference [18][21][23]. Silver Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - The overall trend of Shanghai Silver futures is steadily rising, currently at the end of the trend. Last week, the rising expectation of a Fed rate cut, geopolitical hedging demand, and the growth of photovoltaic industrial demand resonated, pushing the silver price to fluctuate strongly. However, the short - term increase in inventory made it difficult for the price to rise unilaterally, showing a high - level oscillation pattern. This week, attention should be paid to the US August CPI data, Fed policy expectations, inventory changes, and geopolitical risks [32]. - It is recommended to wait and see [33]. 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week, the silver contract 2510 was expected to operate strongly, with the lower support range at 8900 - 9000 and the upper pressure range at 9400 - 9500 [37]. - This week, the silver contract 2512 is expected to operate strongly, with the lower support range at 9200 - 9500 [38]. 3. Relevant Data Situation - Relevant data includes the price trends of Shanghai Silver and COMEX silver, SLV Silver ETF holdings, COMEX silver inventory, Shanghai Silver basis, and silver internal - external price difference [44][46][48].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel futures market shows different trends. The rebar futures main contract is in the second week of the downward channel, and the iron ore futures main contract is in the sideways consolidation phase [7][33] 3. Summary by Directory Rebar Futures 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - The rebar futures main contract is in the second week of the downward channel. The weekly output is 223000 tons, the apparent consumption is 212000 tons, the inventory of major steel mills is 172000 tons, and the social inventory is 673000 tons. Spot customers can consider implementing a short - side hedging strategy step - by - step [7] 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - The rebar futures main contract entered the first week of the downward ladder last week and is in the second week of the medium - term downward channel this week. Spot enterprises can consider implementing a 50% short - side hedging strategy step - by - step [10][11] 3.3 Related Data Situation - The data sources of this report are Wind, Mysteel, and the Trading Advisory Department of Great Wall Futures [15] Iron Ore Futures 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - The iron ore futures main contract is in the sideways consolidation phase. Last week, the global shipment volume was 33.18 million tons, the arrival volume at 45 major ports in China was 23.96 million tons, the inventory of steel enterprises was 90.13 million tons, and the inventory of major domestic ports was 137.65 million tons. Wait for the end of the consolidation phase in the sideways range [33] 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week, the iron ore medium - term price was in the stable consolidation phase. This week, patiently wait for a new medium - term trend to become clear in the sideways range [36] 3.3 Related Data Situation - The data sources of this report are Wind, Mysteel, and the Trading Advisory Department of Great Wall Futures [38]

Report Overview - The report is a weekly report on soybean meal and soybean oil futures from September 8 - 12, 2025 [1][2] 1. Soybean Meal Futures 1.1 Investment Rating - Not provided 1.2 Core View - The soybean meal futures price is expected to continue its wide - range oscillation. The current high domestic soybean arrivals, active oil - mill operations, and high downstream feed - enterprise inventories, along with rising import costs and expected supply shortages in the fourth quarter, jointly influence the price trend [7] 1.3 Section Summaries 1.3.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - Mid - line trend: The soybean meal main contract is in a wide - range oscillation phase [7] - Trend judgment logic: In the 35th week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.4254 million tons, with an operating rate of 68.18%. The soybean meal inventory was 1.0788 million tons, a 2.55 - thousand - ton increase (2.42% growth) from the previous week. High domestic soybean arrivals, active oil - mill operations, and high downstream feed - enterprise inventories lead to continuous inventory accumulation. Rising Brazilian premiums and uncertain Sino - US trade policies increase import costs, and the expected supply shortage in the fourth quarter provides potential support [7] - Mid - line strategy suggestion: Monitor the progress of Sino - US trade [7] 1.3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The overall trend of soybean meal futures prices was sideways, with a relatively bullish capital situation. The M2601 contract may continue to oscillate in the short term, with an expected operating range of 2980 - 3200 [10] - This week's strategy suggestion: The overall trend of soybean meal futures prices is sideways, with a slightly bullish capital situation. The M2601 contract is expected to oscillate and adjust between 2980 - 3200 [11] 1.3.3 Relevant Data - The data includes weekly soybean meal production, weekly inventory, apparent consumption, weekly inventory days, basis, and oil - meal ratio, sourced from Wind, Mysteel, and the Great Wall Futures Trading Consultation Department [19][21][25] 2. Soybean Oil Futures 2.1 Investment Rating - Not provided 2.2 Core View - The soybean oil futures price is expected to continue its oscillation. High domestic soybean arrivals, high oil - mill operating rates, high production and inventory, and general downstream demand, along with support from export improvement, US biodiesel policies, restocking demand, and expected supply shortages in the fourth quarter, jointly affect the price trend [30] 2.3 Section Summaries 2.3.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - Mid - line trend: The soybean oil main contract is in an oscillation phase [30] - Trend judgment logic: In the 35th week, the actual soybean oil production of 125 oil mills was 460,800 tons, a 29,500 - ton increase from the previous week. The commercial inventory of soybean oil in key national regions was 1.2388 million tons, a 52,800 - ton increase from the previous week. High domestic soybean arrivals, high oil - mill operating rates, and general downstream demand, along with support from export improvement, US biodiesel policies, restocking demand, and expected supply shortages in the fourth quarter [30] - Mid - line strategy suggestion: Monitor import costs, the trends of competing oils, and macro - policy dynamics [30] 2.3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The overall trend of soybean oil futures prices was in a downward channel, with a strongly bullish capital situation. The Y2601 contract may maintain an oscillatory consolidation pattern in the short term [33] - This week's strategy suggestion: The overall trend of soybean oil futures prices is sideways, with a relatively bullish capital situation. The Y2601 contract may maintain an oscillatory pattern in the short term [33] 2.3.3 Relevant Data - The data includes weekly soybean oil production, weekly inventory, basis, trading volume, weekly soybean arrivals, weekly soybean inventory, weekly soybean crushing volume, weekly soybean operating rate, weekly port inventory, and Brazilian premiums, sourced from Wind, Mysteel, and the Great Wall Futures Trading Consultation Department [44][46][49]