Report Overview - The report is a weekly futures report on soybean meal and soybean oil from August 18 - 22, 2025 [1][2] 1. Soybean Meal Futures 1.1 Investment Rating - Not provided 1.2 Core View - Soybean meal futures are expected to continue a wide - range oscillation pattern. It's recommended to stay on the sidelines [6] 1.3 Section Summaries 1.3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term trend: The main soybean meal contract is in a wide - range oscillation phase. The current domestic soybean meal inventory is still high, and the supply surplus situation is hard to reverse in the short term. However, there are expectations of tightened supply for new - season US soybeans, high export premiums for Brazilian soybeans, and uncertainties in Sino - US trade [6] - Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [6] 1.3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The overall trend of soybean meal futures prices was sideways, with a strong bullish bias in funds. The M2601 contract was expected to maintain a slightly bullish oscillation in the short term, with an expected operating range of 2980 - 3200 [9] - This week's strategy suggestion: The overall trend of soybean meal futures prices is sideways, with a strong bullish bias in funds. The M2601 contract may continue a slightly bullish oscillation in the short term, with an expected operating range of 3000 - 3250 [10] 1.3.3 Variety Diagnosis - The main force is strongly bullish, with a multi - empty flow of 87.8. The capital energy is basically stable at - 4.3, but there is a high risk of market reversal with a multi - empty divergence of 99.1 [13] 1.3.4 Related Data - Data includes weekly production, weekly inventory, apparent consumption, weekly inventory days, basis, and oil - meal ratio. Data sources are Wind, Mysteel, and the Great Wall Futures Trading Consultation Department [18][21][24] 2. Soybean Oil Futures 2.1 Investment Rating - Not provided 2.2 Core View - Soybean oil futures are in a slightly bullish oscillation phase. It's recommended to stay on the sidelines [29] 2.3 Section Summaries 2.3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term trend: The main soybean oil contract is in a slightly bullish oscillation phase. In the 32nd week, soybean oil production decreased slightly, but due to hot weather, demand was suppressed, leading to accumulated inventory pressure. However, the USDA report cut US soybean planting area, and high Brazilian soybean premiums and fluctuations in competing oils increased cost support [29] - Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [29] 2.3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The overall trend of soybean oil futures prices was in an upward channel, with a bullish bias in funds. The Y2601 contract was expected to continue a bullish run, with attention to possible short - term oscillations and corrections, and an expected operating range of 8100 - 8500 [32] - This week's strategy suggestion: The overall trend of soybean oil futures prices is in an upward channel, with a slightly bearish bias in funds. The Y2601 contract may continue a bullish run, and short - term oscillations and corrections should be noted [33] 2.3.3 Variety Diagnosis - The main force is slightly bearish, with a multi - empty flow of - 33.7. The main capital has a small inflow with a capital energy of 28.5, and there is a high risk of market reversal with a multi - empty divergence of 98.7 [37] 2.3.4 Related Data - Data includes weekly production, weekly inventory, basis, trading volume, weekly soybean arrivals, weekly soybean inventory, weekly soybean crushing volume, weekly soybean mill operating rate, weekly port inventory, and Brazilian soybean premiums. Data sources are Wind, Mysteel, and the Great Wall Futures Trading Consultation Department [43][46][54]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The mid - line trend of electrolytic aluminum is a large - range oscillation. With the approaching of the traditional consumption season in China and the increase in downstream operating rates, short - term fluctuations may intensify due to the weak cost side, continuous accumulation of social inventory, and the new tariff measures by Trump. It is advisable to wait and see [5][12]. - The supply of electrolytic aluminum presents a dual - track pattern of "stable growth in China + overseas supplement". The monthly output in China is expected to increase year - on - year, and the output in overseas countries such as Brazil and South Africa is also expected to have a year - on - year increase of over 30% [10]. - The overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 0.8 percentage points to 59.5% this week, showing a mild recovery trend. It is expected that the aluminum cable and aluminum strip sectors will continue to rise in late August, and the traditional peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October" may further boost the demand for aluminum foil and aluminum profiles [24]. 3. Summary by Directory Mid - line Market Analysis - Mid - line trend: large - range oscillation. The logic is that China is about to enter the traditional consumption season with rising downstream operating rates, but the weak cost side, continuous inventory accumulation, and new tariff measures may intensify short - term fluctuations. The mid - line strategy is to wait and see [5]. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: Aluminum in August may be weak first and then strong. For the next week, the range of the SHFE aluminum 2509 contract is seen at 20300 - 20900, and short - term trading is advisable for now [7]. - This week's strategy suggestion: Due to Trump's new tariff measures, short - term fluctuations may intensify, and it is advisable to wait and see [8]. - Hedging suggestions for spot enterprises: Maintain an appropriate inventory [9]. Overall View - Bauxite market: The domestic bauxite fundamentals are not in surplus. The ore price in the northern region is expected to remain stable, and the price in the southwestern region has an upward trend. Affected by the rainy season in Guinea, the supply in August is tightening, but due to the high port inventory and the resumption of some suspended mines in Guinea, the shortage degree may be limited, and the ore price will mainly operate at the bottom [10]. - Alumina market: As of August 8, the domestic alumina production capacity was about 11255 million tons, the operating capacity was about 9570 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate was about 85.64%, slightly lower than last week's 85.73%. The capacity utilization rate has been rising since May and is currently at a high level since 2022 [10]. - Electrolytic aluminum production: The supply shows a dual - track pattern. In China, the replacement project in Yunnan will be gradually put into production in late August, and the third - phase project of Inner Mongolia Huayun has reached full production, with the monthly output expected to increase year - on - year. Overseas, the output in countries like Brazil and South Africa is expected to increase by over 30% year - on - year [10]. - Import and export: The theoretical loss of electrolytic aluminum imports is about 1300 yuan/ton. The export volume of aluminum products has declined since June but is still at a relatively high level in recent years. Trump's new 50% tariff on aluminum products may lead to a slowdown in export growth in the second half of the year [10]. - Demand: - Aluminum profiles: The operating rate increased by 1 percentage point to 50.5% this week. The construction profile sector remains sluggish, and the overall operating rate is expected to remain stable in the short term [11]. - Aluminum strips and foils: The operating rate of leading aluminum strip enterprises increased by 1 percentage point to 65.0%. The operating rate of aluminum foil leading enterprises increased by 0.9 percentage points to 69.3%. The operating rate of aluminum strips is expected to continue to recover in mid - and late August, and the operating rate of aluminum foil is expected to rise after September [11]. - Aluminum cables: The operating rate of leading aluminum cable enterprises increased by 0.8 percentage points to 62.6%. The operating rate will gradually rise in mid - and late August, and the industry is expected to get out of the off - season [11]. - Alloys: The operating rate of primary aluminum alloy increased by 1.0 percentage point to 56.6%, and is expected to continue to rise to about 57% in the third week of August, but the upward space is limited. The operating rate of recycled aluminum leading enterprises decreased by 0.1 percentage point to 53.0%, and short - term pressure is expected to continue [11]. - Inventory: - Electrolytic aluminum ingots: The social inventory is 590,000 tons, an increase of about 4% from last week and a decrease of about 28% from the same period last year. There is still pressure on inventory accumulation in China due to the tariff increase by the US [11]. - Aluminum rods: The inventory is 135,000 tons, a decrease of about 2% from last week and an increase of about 15% from the same period last year. The demand may still weaken [11]. - LME electrolytic aluminum inventory: It has been increasing slightly since July. Due to overseas resumption of production and weak manufacturing data in Europe and the US, the subsequent inventory pressure may continue to increase [11]. - Profit: - Alumina: The average full - cost of the Chinese alumina industry is about 2850 yuan/ton, and the profit is about 400 yuan/ton, the same as last week [12]. - Electrolytic aluminum: The average production cost in China is about 17600 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is about 3000 yuan/ton, also the same as last week, at a relatively high level [12]. - Market expectation: It will maintain a high - level repeated pattern, focusing on weak supply and demand, inventory accumulation, and capital withdrawal pressure. Short - term is inclined to short on rallies, and long - term requires patience for the peak season [12]. Important Industry Link Price Changes - Bauxite prices are generally stable, with no significant changes in the fundamental pattern. The price of thermal coal has been rising since July. The price of alumina has slightly declined, with high production, oversupply, and inventory accumulation [13]. - Electrolytic aluminum prices are in a narrow - range consolidation, waiting for further macro - level guidance. The alloy price has increased slightly, but the price of scrap aluminum is suppressed due to some enterprises' reduction or suspension of production [14]. Important Industry Link Inventory Changes - Domestic port bauxite inventory has a slight decline. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas has increased, and there is still pressure on inventory accumulation. The aluminum rod inventory has decreased, and the demand may weaken. Overseas, the LME aluminum inventory has continued to increase, possibly due to weak overseas demand and the new position limit rule [18]. Supply and Demand Situation - Profit: The average full - cost of the domestic alumina industry is about 2850 yuan/ton, with a profit of about 400 yuan/ton. The electrolytic aluminum production cost is about 17600 yuan/ton, with a theoretical profit of about 3000 yuan/ton [20]. - Operating rate: The overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 0.8 percentage points to 59.5% this week. It is expected that the aluminum cable and aluminum strip sectors will continue to rise in late August, and the "Golden September and Silver October" may boost the demand for aluminum foil and aluminum profiles [24]. Futures - Spot Structure - The current SHFE aluminum futures price structure is relatively neutral, with low expectations for price increases in the second half of this year and a cooling of expectations for the first half of 2026 [28]. Spread Structure - The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 this week is about - 1640 yuan/ton, compared with - 1560 yuan/ton last week. The current spread between primary aluminum and alloy is at a relatively high level in recent years, which may drag down the electrolytic aluminum price [34]. Market Capital Situation - LME aluminum: The net long position has slightly rebounded, mainly boosted by the expected Fed rate cut in September. However, due to the continuous decline in manufacturing data in Europe and the US, the market is more divided, and the market may fluctuate widely in the near future [37]. - SHFE electrolytic aluminum: The net long position of the main contract has continued to increase steadily. The net long position of financial speculation - based funds has been declining since August, while some institutional positions have increased net long positions. The net short position of funds from mid - and downstream enterprises has been continuously reduced since mid - July and is now slightly net long. The market may fluctuate at a high level next week [40].

2025.08.11-08.15 豆粕、豆油 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 豆粕期货 01 中线行情分析 目录 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 Contents 中线行情分析 建议观望。 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 n 上周策略回顾 豆粕期价整体趋势处于横盘阶段,资金方面较为偏空。M2509 短期内或维持震荡走势，预计运行区间：2920-3150。 中线趋势来看，豆粕主力处于宽幅震荡的阶段。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 据Mysteel数据：第31周油厂大豆实际压榨量225.39万吨，开机率63.36%； 豆粕库存104.16万吨，较上周减少0.15万吨，减幅0.14%。美国主产区天 气良好强化丰产预期，叠加国内大豆到港充足，油厂高开工率下豆粕库 存处于高位，共同抑制豆粕价格上行空间；然而，四季度大豆供应存在 紧缺预期，且巴西大豆贴水报价持续走强推升进口成本。综合来看，豆 粕期货预计延续宽幅震荡态势。 2 n 本周策略建议 豆粕期价整体趋势处于横盘阶段,资金方面强烈偏多。M2601短 期内或维持震荡偏强走势，预计运行区间：2980-3200。 品种诊断情况 本报告数据来源为Wind、My ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - The soda ash and glass futures markets are currently in a volatile phase. For soda ash, the market is expected to maintain a narrow - range oscillation due to factors such as high inventory, oversupply, and weak demand, despite cost support from rising raw material prices. For glass, the market will continue its weak oscillation because of the mismatch between weak reality and policy expectations, with supply - demand contradictions intensifying [6][27]. - It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach for both soda ash and glass futures [6][10][31]. 3. Summary by Directory Soda Ash Futures 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - The soda ash futures are in an oscillating phase. Last week, the domestic soda ash market was weak with minor price fluctuations. The mainstream prices were 1060 - 1510 yuan/ton for light soda ash and 1060 - 1520 yuan/ton for heavy soda ash. Supply initially tightened due to enterprise maintenance but later recovered, while demand remained weak. With the weakening of macro - level benefits, market sentiment turned cautious and bearish. High inventory and oversupply will keep the market in a narrow - range oscillation. A wait - and - see approach is suggested [6]. 3.2 Variety Trading Strategies - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The domestic soda ash market was stable with a slight upward trend last week. Prices of light and heavy soda ash increased. The industry's operating rate decreased slightly, with active purchasing by spot - futures traders and downstream demand being the main driver. Most enterprises had full orders and some stopped accepting new ones. Policy supported prices, but limited by over - capacity, the upside was restricted. The futures were oscillating at a high level. It was expected that soda ash 2509 would trade between 1200 - 1350, and a wait - and - see approach was recommended [9]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The domestic soda ash market was weak last week with small price changes. Supply tightened first due to maintenance and then recovered, while demand was weak. Market sentiment turned cautious and bearish, and high inventory and oversupply pressured prices. It is expected that the market will maintain a narrow - range oscillation, and soda ash 2601 will trade between 1250 - 1400. A wait - and - see approach is recommended [10]. 3.3 Relevant Data - Data includes China's weekly soda ash operating rate, weekly production, weekly light and heavy soda ash inventories, daily basis, and weekly production cost of the ammonia - soda process in North China. The multi - short flow is - 34.2 (slightly bearish for the main force), the capital energy is 62.9 (significant capital inflow), and the multi - short divergence is 89.2 (high risk of a market turnaround) [11][14][20]. Glass Futures 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - Overall, the glass market is in an oscillating trend. Last week, the price of 5mm float glass in China generally declined, with the largest drop of about 70 yuan/ton in North China and 30 - 40 yuan/ton in other regions (except for the stable price in the Northwest). Demand was weak, and downstream enterprises focused on inventory clearance. Supply increased due to复产, intensifying the supply - demand contradiction. Affected by the gap between weak reality and policy expectations, the market lacked confidence and will continue its weak oscillation. It is recommended to hold an empty position and wait and see [27]. 3.2 Variety Trading Strategies - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The domestic 5mm float glass market was oscillating strongly last week, but the increase was mainly driven by policy benefits with weakening momentum later. Some regions saw price corrections or reduced purchasing. The market was mainly driven by downstream rigid - demand restocking, with insufficient supply - demand support. The glass futures fluctuated greatly with a weak performance on the board. It was expected that glass 2509 would trade between 950 - 1150, and an empty - position wait - and - see approach was recommended [30]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The price of 5mm float glass in China generally declined last week. Demand was weak, and downstream enterprises cleared inventory. Supply increased due to复产, intensifying the supply - demand contradiction. Affected by the gap between reality and policy expectations, the market lacked confidence and will continue its weak oscillation. It is expected that glass 2509 will trade between 950 - 1150, and an empty - position wait - and - see approach is recommended [31]. 3.3 Relevant Data - Data includes China's weekly float glass production, operating rate, weekly production cost and gross profit of the float process using natural gas as fuel, daily basis, and weekly ending inventory. The multi - short flow is - 88.9 (strongly bearish for the main force), the capital energy is 26.0 (slight capital inflow by the main force), and the multi - short divergence is 96.5 (high risk of a market turnaround) [33][38][46].

Report Overview - Report Name: Futures Weekly Report on Rebar and Iron Ore [2] - Report Date: August 11 - 15, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Rebar futures and iron ore futures are both in a consolidation phase, and investors should wait for the next clear trend [7][31] Summary by Section Rebar Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term trend: The main contract of rebar futures has entered a consolidation range [7] - Trend judgment logic: Weekly production is 2.21 million tons, apparent consumption is 2.11 million tons, major steel mills' inventory is 1.68 million tons, and social inventory is 5.89 million tons. The daily - level price is in a downward channel, and the capital side is slightly bearish [7] - Mid - term strategy: Wait for the consolidation phase to complete [7] 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The main contract of rebar futures entered a consolidation range [10] - This week's strategy: Wait patiently for the next mid - term trend [10] - Hedging advice for spot enterprises: Wait for the consolidation phase to complete [11] 3. Relevant Data - Data sources: Wind, Mysteel, and the trading advisory department of Great Wall Futures [15] Iron Ore Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term trend: The main contract of iron ore futures has entered a consolidation phase [31] - Trend judgment logic: Global shipments last week were 30.61 million tons, arrivals at 45 major Chinese ports were 25.07 million tons, steel enterprises' inventory was 90.12 million tons, and domestic major ports' inventory was 136.57 million tons. The daily - level price is in a sideways phase, and the main capital shows a relatively obvious bullish attitude [31] - Mid - term strategy: Wait for the next clear trend during the consolidation phase [31] 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The main contract of iron ore futures entered a consolidation range [34] - This week's strategy: Wait for the next clear trend during the consolidation phase [34] 3. Relevant Data - Data sources: Wind, Mysteel, and the trading advisory department of Great Wall Futures [37]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Industrial silicon futures are currently in a large - range oscillatory operation. The 2511 contract is expected to operate in the range of 7,700 - 10,000 yuan. It's recommended to consider grid trading within the range [6][7][10]. - Lithium carbonate futures are also in a large - range oscillatory operation. The 2511 contract is expected to operate in the range of 63,000 - 80,000 yuan. It's recommended to buy a small amount when the price retraces to the 63,000 - 65,000 yuan range [32][33][37]. 3. Summary by Directory Industrial Silicon Futures 3.1. Mid - line Market Analysis - Mid - line trend: Industrial silicon futures are in a large - range oscillatory operation. Last week, the spot price of industrial silicon decreased slightly. As of August 8, the price of 421 in Xinjiang was 8,900 yuan/ton, 10,000 yuan/ton in Yunnan, and 10,100 yuan/ton in Sichuan. The AI intelligent investment consultation variety diagnosis report shows that the daily price is in a downward channel, and the long - position camp of the main force has a slight advantage. The 2511 contract is expected to operate in the range of 7,700 - 10,000 yuan [6][7]. 3.2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy: Consider grid trading within the range. - This week's strategy: Consider grid trading within the range [10]. 3.3. Relevant Data Situation - As of April 19, 2024, the cathode copper inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 300,045 tons, an increase of 322 tons from the previous week. Seasonally, the current inventory is at a relatively high level compared to the past five years. - As of April 19, 2024, the LME copper inventory was 122,125 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 25.73%. Seasonally, the current inventory is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [12][17]. Lithium Carbonate Futures 3.1. Mid - line Market Analysis - Mid - line trend: Lithium carbonate futures are in a large - range oscillatory operation. Last week, the spot price of lithium carbonate showed mixed trends. As of August 8, the mainstream price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 70,000 yuan/ton, and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 68,950 yuan/ton. Technically, the AI variety diagnosis report shows that the daily price of lithium carbonate futures is in a sideways phase, and the main force shows a strong bullish sentiment. The 2511 contract is expected to operate in the range of 63,000 - 80,000 yuan [32][33]. 3.2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy: Buy a small amount when the price of lithium carbonate retraces to the 63,000 - 65,000 yuan range. - This week's strategy: Buy a small amount when the price of lithium carbonate retraces to the 63,000 - 65,000 yuan range [36][37]. 3.3. Relevant Data Situation - As of April 19, 2024, the electrolytic aluminum inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 228,537 tons, a decrease of 3,228 tons from the previous week. Seasonally, the current inventory is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years. - As of April 19, 2024, the LME aluminum inventory was 504,000 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 66.03%. Seasonally, the current inventory is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [40][42].

2025.8.11-8.15 电解铝 期货品种周报 20000元下方可以考虑中线布局多单。 3 中线策略建议 品种交易策略 n 上周策略回顾 中线行情分析 大区间震荡。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 短期无新刺激政策，投资者风险偏好下降，资金撤离工业品板块，铝价波动 弹性收窄，而现实为库存累积、消费淡季等偏空因素，短期价格偏承压整理， 但8月是淡旺季交替区，加上近期美国制造指数出现回落，降息预期再度升温， 加上国内托底政策，8月或先弱后强。 2 8月或先弱后强。未来一周，沪铝2509合约区间看20300- 20900，暂短线交易为宜。 n 本周策略建议 8月下旬价格仍偏强对待，但当前成本端偏弱+社库持续累库， 暂难以支撑大的单边行情，未来一周，沪铝2509合约区间看 20500-21000。 n 现货企业套期保值建议 可考虑适量逢低配置期货虚拟库存。 【总体观点】 | | 2025年8月第2周 | | --- | --- | | 铝土矿市场 | 国产铝土矿基本面未见过剩，北方地区矿价预计持稳为主，西南地区铝土矿价格存上涨的趋势，受几内 | | | 亚雨季影响8月铝土矿供应有趋紧态势，但前期进口增量显著港口库 ...

目录 中线行情分析 2025.08.11-08.15 黄金、白银 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 黄金期货 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 沪金期货整体趋势处在横盘阶段，当前可能处于开始阶段。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 上周黄金价格受弱非农强化降息预期+美元回落+地缘避险+资金增仓， 共同推动周内震荡偏强走势。短期走势黄金价格处在区间震荡整理，受 美元指数波动和地缘政治风险影响较大。中长期走势：若美联储在9月 开启降息周期，黄金价格有望进一步上行。同时，若地缘政治风险加剧， 黄金的避险属性将推动价格持续走高。 2 建议观望。 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 n 上周策略回顾 黄金主力合约2510预期震荡运行为主，建议：735－838区间进行 网格交易。 n 本周策略建议 黄金主力合约2510预期震荡运行为主，建议：735－838区间进行 网格交易。 品种诊断情况 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 精选指标情况 [图片] 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 相关数据情况 5,500,500.00 10, ...

2025.08.04-08.08 黄金、白银 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 黄金期货 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 中线行情分析 沪金期货整体趋势处在上升通道中，当前可能处于趋势尾声。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 上周黄金价格呈现震荡偏强走势，先跌后涨。主要驱动因素包括：美元 指数上涨施压金价，但实际收益率下降和地缘政治风险（巴以冲突升级 担忧）提供支撑，推动反弹。美联储政策预期受经济数据疲软（如耐用 品订单下滑）影响，鹰派立场承压但通胀担忧利好。全球央行购金行为 和中长期避险需求增强支撑。成交量和持仓量在8月1日上升，显示市场 活跃度提高。整体受美元、美债、地缘及政策多因素博弈主导。 2 建议观望。 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 n 上周策略回顾 黄金主力合约2510预期震荡运行，建议：750－800区间进行网格 交易。 n 本周策略建议 黄金主力合约2510预期震荡运行为主，建议：735－838区间进行 网格交易。 品种诊断情况 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 精选指标情况 [图片] 本报告数据来源为Wind、 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The soda ash and glass futures are both in an oscillating phase. For soda ash, although there was policy support last week, the oversupply situation remains unchanged, and the upside space is limited. For glass, the price increase was mainly driven by policy sentiment, with insufficient supply - demand support [6][30]. - It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach for both soda ash and glass futures [6][30]. 3. Summary by Directory Soda Ash Futures 3.1. Mid - line Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: Soda ash futures are in an oscillating phase. The short - term may continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to policy implementation, start - up adjustment, and inventory changes [6]. - **Trend Logic**: Last week, the domestic soda ash market first rose and then declined. Policy and device maintenance supported the price increase at the beginning of the week, but weak downstream demand and increased supply later led to a weakening of the futures [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to wait and see [6]. 3.2. Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The domestic soda ash market was stable with a slight upward trend last week. The futures were in high - level oscillation, affected by the contradiction between policy expectations and fundamentals. The expected operating range of SA2509 was 1250 - 1450, and it was advisable to wait and see [9]. - **This Week's Strategy Recommendation**: The domestic soda ash market was still stable with a slight upward trend. The expected operating range of SA2509 is 1200 - 1350, and it is recommended to wait and see [10]. 3.3. Relevant Data - The data includes China's weekly soda ash开工率,产量,轻质库存,重质库存,基差 (daily), ammonia - soda production cost in North China (weekly), etc. The multi - empty flow is - 39.7, indicating the main force is slightly bearish; the capital energy is 7.2 + 2, remaining basically stable; the multi - empty divergence is 90.6, with a high risk of market reversal [11][15][22]. Glass Futures 3.1. Mid - line Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: Glass is in an oscillating trend. The short - term may have narrow - range fluctuations, and attention should be paid to inventory and policy trends [30]. - **Trend Logic**: Last week, the domestic 5mm float glass market was oscillating with a slight upward trend. The price increase was mainly driven by policy sentiment, with insufficient supply - demand support and low downstream acceptance of high prices [30]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to hold an empty position and wait and see [30]. 3.2. Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The domestic 5mm float glass market was stable with an upward trend last week. The futures first fell and then rose, with a risk of adjustment at the weekend. The expected operating range of glass 2509 was 1200 - 1400, and it was advisable to wait and see [33]. - **This Week's Strategy Recommendation**: The domestic 5mm float glass market was oscillating with a slight upward trend, but the upward momentum weakened. The expected operating range of glass 2509 is 950 - 1150, and it is recommended to hold an empty position and wait and see [34]. 3.3. Relevant Data - The data includes China's weekly float glass产量,开工率, production cost and profit margin of the float process using natural gas as fuel,基差 (daily), and期末库存. The multi - empty flow is - 53.5, indicating the main force is relatively bearish; the capital energy is 68.7 * + +, with a large inflow of funds; the multi - empty divergence is 96.4, with a high risk of market reversal [36][42][51].