2026.02.02-02.06 黄金、白银 期货品种周报 沪金期货整体趋势处在强势上涨阶段，当前可能处于趋势尾声。 中线趋势判断 1 01 P A R T 黄金期货 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 中线行情分析 趋势判断逻辑 上周黄金价格呈"冲高回落"走势。于1月29日创下1249.12元/克的 高点。随后因美联储暂停降息的信号明确，美元指数反弹至9 7 . 1 2，叠 加多头大量获利了结，金价大幅回调，净多持仓显著下降。 短期来看，金价或进入高位震荡阶段。一方面，地缘不确定性、全球 央行购金等长期支撑依然存在；另一方面，美联储政策转向与美元可能 的持续反弹将构成主要压制，且技术面存在回调需求。后市需重点关注 地缘局势演变、美元指数动向及市场资金面变化，警惕避险情绪退潮带 来的价格调整风险。 2 建议观望。 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 上周策略回顾 沪金合约2604短期谨慎看多，下方支撑位1085－1095元/克，建 议逢低买入，短期高位波动较大注意控制仓位。 本周策略建议 沪金合约2604短期高位大幅回调，上方压力：1115－1165元/克， 下方支 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The aluminum price is expected to be in a strong and volatile state, with high-level fluctuations around the Spring Festival. In the first half of February, the aluminum price needs to digest short-term gains and deal with the seasonal inventory accumulation pressure during the Spring Festival; in the second half, the market focus will shift to the resumption of work progress after the festival. The overall trend is expected to be high-level fluctuations with a significantly higher central value [5][12]. - It is expected that in early February, the aluminum price may be under pressure due to factors such as the Fed's hawkish expectations, the lack of incremental holiday demand, and inventory accumulation. In the middle and late February, attention should be paid to changes in U.S. bond sentiment, the escalation of the U.S.-Iran geopolitical situation, and the strike at Guinea's mines. It is expected to be in a sideways and volatile state. In March, with the start of restocking, peak-season demand, and tight supply, the market may operate strongly. During this period, the low level of electrolytic aluminum is expected to be around 22,000 - 22,500, and the high level around 25,500 - 26,500 [12]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Mid - term Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: The aluminum price is expected to be in a strong and volatile state, with high-level fluctuations around the Spring Festival. In the first half of February, it needs to digest short-term gains and deal with seasonal inventory accumulation pressure; in the second half, the focus will be on the resumption of work after the festival [5]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Adopt a strategy of buying low and selling high and maintain an appropriate inventory [5]. Variety Trading Strategy - **Short - term Strategy**: Short - term long positions are advised to exit and wait and see, while medium - term long positions should continue to be held [8]. - **This Week's Strategy**: Hold an appropriate amount of spot inventory [8]. - **Hedging Suggestion for Spot Enterprises**: No specific content provided. Overall Viewpoint - **Aluminum Ore Market**: The supply of Guinea's bauxite is growing steadily, and the volume of goods shipped to China globally is increasing. The price of imported ore in February is expected to remain under pressure, and the imported ore market is gradually moving towards a state of oversupply [10]. - **Alumina Market**: The alumina industry's supply surplus pattern continues. Affected by the Spring Festival holiday in February, the trading time before and after the festival is short. Coupled with the increasing scale of maintenance and production reduction in the alumina industry, the price of the alumina market in February is expected to remain stagnant [10]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: The domestic and Indonesian electrolytic aluminum projects are steadily ramping up production, and the daily output is continuously increasing. It is expected that the production will continue to rise in the short term. In 2026, the global aluminum supply elasticity is expected to be very small [10]. - **Import and Export**: The theoretical loss of electrolytic aluminum imports is currently about 1,600 yuan/ton. In 2025, China's exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products decreased by 8.0% year - on - year. In 2026, China's aluminum profile exports are expected to show a complex situation of "structural growth, high - end breakthrough, but increasing external barriers" [10]. - **Inventory**: As of January 30, the social inventory of aluminum was about 800,000 tons, up about 0.5% from last week and about 61% higher than the same period last year. The inventory of aluminum rods was 245,000 tons, up about 11% from last week and about 110% higher than the same period last year, at the highest level in the same period in the past 10 years. The LME aluminum inventory continued to decline slightly by about 2%, about 16% lower than the same period last year, at a low level in recent years [10]. - **Profit**: The average full - cost of the Chinese alumina industry in the past month was about 2,720 yuan/ton, with a theoretical spot loss of about 90 yuan/ton and a theoretical profit of about 50 yuan/ton for the futures main contract. The average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 16,600 yuan/ton, with a theoretical profit of about 7,900 yuan/ton, at a historical high level [12]. - **Market Expectation**: In the first half of February, the aluminum price needs to digest short - term gains and deal with seasonal inventory accumulation pressure; in the second half, the market focus will shift to the resumption of work after the festival. The overall trend is expected to be high - level fluctuations with a significantly higher central value [12]. - **Our View**: In early February, the aluminum price may be under pressure. In the middle and late February, it is expected to be in a sideways and volatile state. In March, the market may operate strongly [12]. - **Key Concerns**: Fluctuations in U.S. bonds, the evolution of the U.S. - Iran geopolitical situation, and the strike at Guinea's mines [12]. Important Industry Link Price Changes - The prices of imported bauxite ores have been accelerating their decline since January. The prices of alumina spot continued to be under pressure for adjustment, while the futures prices rebounded. The electrolytic aluminum price reached a new stage high this week but declined significantly at the end of the month due to macro and pre - holiday off - season factors [13]. Important Industry Link Inventory Changes - The port inventory of bauxite decreased slightly this week, but the arrival volume of Chinese bauxite in February is still expected to be significant. The alumina inventory continued to accumulate, at a high level in the past five years. The social inventory of aluminum and the inventory of aluminum rods continued to increase, and the LME aluminum inventory continued to decline slightly [15][16]. Supply and Demand Situation - **Profit**: The domestic alumina industry has a theoretical spot loss and a theoretical profit for the futures main contract. The electrolytic aluminum production cost has decreased slightly, and the profit has increased. The electrolytic aluminum has a theoretical import loss [18]. - **Downstream开工概况**: The comprehensive aluminum processing start - up rate this week was 59.4%, down 1.5 percentage points from last week. It is expected that the start - up rate of each aluminum processing sector will be generally under pressure in February [23]. Futures - Spot Structure The current Shanghai aluminum futures show a forward market structure with higher prices in the distant future and lower prices in the near term. The pattern of "off - season demand + high aluminum prices suppressing consumption" is obvious. The market is optimistic about future supply and demand, but the spot end is still a drag [27]. Spread Structure The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 this week was about - 1,830 yuan/ton. The current spread between primary aluminum and alloys is at the mid - axis level in recent years, having a neutral impact on electrolytic aluminum [32][34]. Market Capital Situation - **LME Aluminum**: The latest net long position of funds continued to increase slightly. Since June 2025, there has been an overall trend of more long positions and fewer short positions. Currently, overseas funds are still dominated by long positions, but the long - position floating profit positions are relatively heavy, prone to high - level repeated market conditions [36]. - **SHFE Electrolytic Aluminum**: The net short position of the main force increased slightly this week. The reduction of long positions by institutions was greater than that of short positions. The net long position of funds with a background of mid - and downstream enterprises first increased and then decreased. Overall, the main funds are relatively bearish on the short - term market [39].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a weekly report on industrial silicon and lithium carbonate futures from January 26 - 30, 2026 [1][2] Group 2: Industrial Silicon Futures Mid - term Market Analysis - Industrial silicon futures are currently in a volatile state. The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable last week. As of January 23, the price of 421 in Xinjiang was 9050 yuan/ton, 9900 yuan/ton in Yunnan, and 10000 yuan/ton in Sichuan. The AI intelligent investment consultation report shows that the daily price is in a sideways phase, and the main force shows a strong bearish sentiment [8] - The mid - term strategy suggests a wait - and - see approach [9] Variety Trading Strategy - Last week, the main contract of industrial silicon oscillated in the range of 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton, and this week's suggestion is the same [12] Related Data - As of April 19, 2024, the cathode copper inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 300,045 tons, an increase of 322 tons from the previous week, and it is at a relatively high level compared to the past five years [14] - As of April 19, 2024, the LME copper inventory was 122,125 tons, with a cancelled warrant ratio of 25.73%, and it is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [18] Group 3: Lithium Carbonate Futures Mid - term Market Analysis - Lithium carbonate futures are currently on an upward trend. The spot price of lithium carbonate first declined and then rose last week. As of January 23, the market price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 161,500 yuan/ton, and that of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 164,550 yuan/ton. The AI intelligent investment consultation report shows that the daily price of lithium carbonate futures is in a strong upward phase, and the main force has no obvious long - or short - bias. Due to its large volatility, a wait - and - see approach is recommended [34][35] Variety Trading Strategy - Last week, the bottom of lithium carbonate rose, and the main contract was advised to focus on the support in the range of 120,000 - 130,000 yuan. This week, it is advised to focus on the support in the range of 140,000 - 145,000 yuan [38][39] Related Data - As of April 19, 2024, the electrolytic aluminum inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 228,537 tons, a decrease of 3,228 tons from the previous week, and it is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [42] - As of April 19, 2024, the LME aluminum inventory was 504,000 tons, with a cancelled warrant ratio of 66.03%, and it is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [44]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Views - The soybean meal futures price is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation phase due to factors such as tight supply expectations and sufficient downstream feed enterprise inventories [6] - The soybean oil futures price is expected to continue its wide - range oscillation trend as a result of the co - existence of a loose global soybean supply and positive demand expectations [27] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Soybean Meal Futures 3.1.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - Mid - line trend: The soybean meal main contract is in a wide - range oscillation stage [6] - Trend judgment logic: The 3rd - week soybean actual crushing volume of oil mills was 1.9942 million tons, with an operation rate of 54.86% and a soybean meal inventory of 947,200 tons. South American weather disruptions delayed soybean harvesting, slowing down the domestic arrival rhythm. Oil mill inventories continued to decline, and some oil mills had shutdown plans around the Spring Festival. However, downstream feed enterprises had sufficient inventories, and the current procurement was mainly for rigid demand replenishment, with a dull spot market sentiment and the expectation of a South American bumper harvest [6] - Mid - line strategy suggestion: Pay attention to inventory depletion progress, South American weather, and arrival rhythm [6] 3.1.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The overall trend of the soybean meal futures price was in a downward channel, with slightly more funds. The M2605 was expected to continue its weak oscillation trend in the short term, with an expected operating range of 2700 - 2800 [9] - This week's strategy suggestion: The overall trend of the soybean meal futures price is in a sideways stage, with slightly less funds. The M2605 is expected to be in an interval oscillation pattern in the short term, with an expected operating range of 2700 - 2800 [10] 3.1.3 Relevant Data Situation - Data includes soybean meal weekly output, weekly inventory, apparent consumption, weekly inventory days, basis, and oil - meal ratio. Data sources are Wind, Mysteel, and the Great Wall Futures Trading Consultation Department [18][20][23] 3.2 Soybean Oil Futures 3.2.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - Mid - line trend: The soybean oil main contract is in a wide - range oscillation stage [26] - Trend judgment logic: According to Mysteel data, the 3rd - week actual soybean oil output of 125 oil mills was 378,900 tons, and the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key domestic regions was 963,300 tons. The global soybean supply remains loose, and although the domestic soybean oil inventory is decreasing, it is still at a relatively high historical level. However, the optimistic expectations brought by the US biodiesel policy have boosted the long - term demand outlook, and the pre - Spring Festival stocking demand is gradually being released [27] - Mid - line strategy suggestion: Pay attention to changes in domestic procurement rhythm, progress of US biodiesel, and South American weather [27] 3.2.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The overall trend of the soybean oil futures price was in an upward stage, with more funds. The Y2605 might maintain an oscillation - strong pattern in the short term [30] - This week's strategy suggestion: The overall trend of the soybean oil futures price is in an upward stage, with slightly more funds. The Y2605 might continue the oscillation - strong pattern in the short term [30] 3.2.3 Relevant Data Situation - Data includes soybean oil weekly output, weekly inventory, basis, trading volume, soybean weekly arrival volume, weekly inventory, weekly crushing volume, weekly operation rate, weekly port inventory, and Brazilian premium. Data sources are Wind, Mysteel, and the Great Wall Futures Trading Consultation Department [40][45][47]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The soda ash futures market is in a volatile stage with a mid - term bearish view, and it is recommended to wait and see. The glass futures market is in a volatile trend, and it is recommended to hold an empty position and wait and see [6][29]. 3. Summary by Directory Soda Ash Futures Mid - line Market Analysis - The soda ash futures are in a volatile phase. Last week, the domestic soda ash market was generally stable but slightly weak. Supply was abundant, downstream demand was flat, and the market lacked upward drivers. It is expected to continue a narrow - range weak consolidation. The futures are under pressure due to high supply and weak demand, and there is no core rebound power. The weak glass market also drags down demand expectations. The mid - term view is to be bearish on rebounds, and it is recommended to wait and see [6]. Variety Trading Strategy - **Last week's strategy review**: The soda ash spot market had a narrow - range shock last week. Supply was sufficient but demand was weak, and prices were under pressure. The futures were volatile and weak, suppressed by high supply, high inventory, and weak demand, and the rebound was weak [9]. - **This week's strategy suggestion**: The soda ash market was stable but slightly weak last week, with some prices slightly loosening. The supply - demand game continued. It is expected to continue a narrow - range weak consolidation. The futures are under pressure to decline, lacking rebound power due to high supply, weak demand, and the weak downstream. The bearish view is maintained [10]. Relevant Data Situation - The relevant data includes China's weekly soda ash开工率,产量,轻质库存,重质库存, daily basis, and the weekly ammonia - soda process production cost in North China [11][14][16]. Glass Futures Mid - line Market Analysis - Overall, the glass is in a volatile trend. Last week, the domestic float glass market had a narrow - range consolidation with regional differences. The overall price fluctuation was limited. The market sentiment was generally weak, and downstream demand showed a seasonal weakening feature. The current market supply - demand pattern is stable supply and weak demand, lacking substantial positive factors. It is expected to maintain a narrow - range shock in the short term. It is recommended to hold an empty position and wait and see [29]. Variety Trading Strategy - **Last week's strategy review**: The float glass market rose and then stabilized last week. Supply contraction initially pushed up quotes, but weak demand restricted the increase, and inventories generally decreased. The glass futures were weak and declined, with cost support and high inventory in a game, lacking positive factors, and maintaining a weak trend [32]. - **This week's strategy suggestion**: The float glass market had a narrow - range consolidation last week with regional differentiation and limited price fluctuations. Demand weakened seasonally, and the overall inventory tended to be stable. The glass futures declined weakly mainly due to weak real - estate demand and will still face inventory pressure in the future. It is expected to have a low - level shock in the short term [33]. Relevant Data Situation - The relevant data includes China's weekly float glass产量,开工率, production cost and production profit of the float process using natural gas as fuel, daily basis, and weekly ending inventory [35][39][42].

Report Summary for the Week of January 26 - 30, 2026 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate strongly, and may experience high - level oscillations before the Spring Festival. The supply - demand situation is weakening, but macro - drivers are strong. Although there are negative feedbacks from downstream due to high prices and a reduced probability of the Fed's interest - rate cut at the end of January, the mid - term supply - demand balance in the electrolytic aluminum market and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East limit the downside space of aluminum prices. The expected operating range of the spot aluminum price in January is 22,000 - 25,000 yuan/ton [5][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Mid - line Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate strongly. The supply - demand situation is weakening, but macro - drivers are strong. Near the Spring Festival in late January, high prices lead to increased negative feedback from downstream, and the reduced probability of the Fed's interest - rate cut at the end of January may disrupt the market. However, considering the mid - term supply - demand balance in the electrolytic aluminum market and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, the aluminum price is expected to fluctuate strongly [5]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Hold long positions and wait for the price to rise [5]. Variety Trading Strategy - **Short - term Strategy**: Short - term long positions are advised to exit and wait and see, while mid - term long positions should be continued to hold. - **This Week's Strategy**: Hold an appropriate amount of spot inventory. - **Hedging Suggestion for Spot Enterprises**: Not elaborated in detail, but the overall strategy is related to holding positions and inventory management [8]. Overall View - **Bauxite Market**: Based on CRU data, the cost of transporting Guinean bauxite to Guinean ports is mainly between $20 - 45 per ton. The expected CIF average price of Guinean bauxite in 2026 is $58 - 68 per ton. Domestic ore supply has no expectation of resumption of mining and production release, and may continue to tighten. The supply of Guinean alumina is growing steadily, and the imported ore price in February is expected to be under pressure [9]. - **Alumina Market**: Affected by environmental control and operating pressure, some alumina enterprises in the north carried out maintenance, and the industry's operating rate declined. The weekly output decreased by 39,000 tons to 1.671 million tons. The overall supply - surplus pattern remains unchanged, and attention should be paid to the implementation of maintenance and the recovery progress of previous maintenance [9]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: In December, the domestic built - in capacity was about 46.1865 million tons, and the operating capacity was about 44.6893 million tons, showing a slight increase. However, the capacity utilization rate decreased, and the aluminum - water ratio was about 71.44%. The daily output of domestic and Indonesian electrolytic aluminum projects is increasing, and the output is expected to continue to rise in the short term. In 2026, the global aluminum supply elasticity is expected to almost disappear [9]. - **Import and Export**: The current theoretical loss of electrolytic aluminum imports is about 2,400 yuan/ton. In 2025, China's cumulative export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 6.134 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.0%. In December, the export volume was 545,000 tons, still at a high level in recent years [9]. - **Inventory**: As of January 22, the aluminum ingot inventory was 743,000 tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons from January 19, the first de - stocking since January; the aluminum bar inventory was 222,000 tons, an increase of 3,500 tons from January 19, showing continuous inventory accumulation. The LME aluminum inventory increased by about 4% compared with last week, and was about 20% lower than the same period last year, still at a low level in recent years [9]. - **Profit**: The average full - cost of the Chinese alumina industry in the past month was about 2,720 yuan/ton, the theoretical spot profit was about - 70 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit of the futures main contract was about 0 yuan/ton. The current average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 16,700 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is about 7,500 yuan/ton, at a historical high level [10]. - **Market Expectation**: Macro - sentiment dominates. The Fed's decision is expected to be neutral to bearish, but the strong performance of gold and silver limits the callback space. The pressure of inventory accumulation and the short - term decline in inventory create a game, and the futures price is expected to rise first and then fall [10]. - **Key Concerns**: Changes in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation in January; the evolution of the geopolitical situation between the US and Iran; whether the bauxite price drops unexpectedly [10]. Important Industry Link Price Changes - Most prices of bauxite, alumina, and related raw materials have changed. For example, the price of Guinean bauxite SI2 - 3% decreased by 1.59% week - on - week, and the price of Henan - grade alumina decreased by 0.29% week - on - week. The price of domestic electrolytic aluminum production cost decreased by 0.21% week - on - week, while the closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract increased by 1.53% week - on - week [11]. - Imported aluminum ore is still under pressure, coal prices have declined, and alumina prices have stabilized, but the bearish atmosphere is still strong [11]. Supply - demand Situation - The profit situation of important links in the domestic aluminum industry is as follows: the alumina industry has a theoretical spot loss of about 70 yuan/ton and a theoretical import loss of about 50 yuan/ton; the electrolytic aluminum production cost is about 16,700 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is about 7,500 yuan/ton, with a theoretical import loss of about 2,050 yuan/ton [14]. Futures - spot Structure - The current Shanghai Aluminum futures show a contango structure of higher prices in the far - term and lower prices in the near - term. The pattern of "increased supply arrivals + high aluminum prices suppressing consumption" is obvious. The current price is mainly guided by the macro and expectations, and the spot side is a drag [21]. Spread Structure - The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 this week is about - 1,750 yuan/ton, compared with - 1,790 yuan/ton before the festival. The current spread between primary aluminum and alloy is at the mid - axis level in recent years, and has a neutral impact on electrolytic aluminum [28][29]. Market Fund Situation - **LME Aluminum**: The latest net long position of funds has continued to increase slightly. Since June 2025, there has been an overall increase in long positions and a decrease in short positions. Overseas funds are still dominated by long positions, but the long floating - profit positions are relatively heavy, and high - level repeated market conditions are likely to occur [31]. - **SHFE Electrolytic Aluminum**: The net short position of the main force first decreased and then increased this week, remaining stable compared with last week. Both the long and short camps have increased their positions. The net short position of institutional positions mainly for speculation remains stable, and the net long position of funds from the background of mid - downstream enterprises has continued to decrease slightly. The main funds are still cautious about the short - term market, and the short - term may be in high - level consolidation [34].

Report Overview - Report Title: Gold, Silver Futures Weekly Report [2] - Report Period: January 26 - 30, 2026 [1] 1. Gold Futures 1.1 Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 1.2 Core View - The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is in a strong upward phase, possibly at the end of the trend. Geopolitical risks and central bank gold purchases provide long - term support, but short - term risks of high - level corrections exist [7]. - It is recommended to wait and see in the medium term [8]. 1.3 Summary by Directory 1.3.1 Medium - term Market Analysis - Trend: The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is strongly rising, possibly at the end of the trend [7]. - Driving Factors: Last week's strong rise was driven by geopolitical conflicts, central bank gold purchases, a weak dollar, and interest - rate cut expectations [7]. - Support: Geopolitical risks and central bank gold purchases provide long - term support [7]. - Risks: Short - term risks include overbought technical indicators and policy uncertainties [7]. - Focus: Future attention should be on the Fed's policy path and global macroeconomic data [7]. - Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [8]. 1.3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: For the Shanghai Gold contract 2604, it was recommended to be cautiously bullish in the short term, with a resistance level of 1045 - 1050 yuan/gram and a support level of 1020 - 1025 yuan/gram. It was advised to buy on dips and control positions due to high - level volatility [10]. - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: For the Shanghai Gold contract 2604, it is recommended to be cautiously bullish in the short term, with a support level of 1085 - 1095 yuan/gram. It is advised to buy on dips and control positions due to high - level volatility [11]. - Market Conditions: The daily line is in a strong upward phase, at a sensitive position in the head. There is a possibility of trend reversal. The main force shows a strong bullish sentiment, and there is a certain risk of a market turn [12]. 1.3.3 Relevant Data Situation - Data includes the price trends of Shanghai Gold and COMEX gold, SPDR gold ETF holdings, COMEX gold inventory, US 10 - year Treasury yields, the US dollar index, the US dollar against the offshore RMB, the gold - silver ratio, Shanghai Gold basis, and the gold price difference between domestic and foreign markets [18][21][23][25][28] 2. Silver Futures 2.1 Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2.2 Core View - The overall trend of Shanghai Silver futures is in a strong upward phase, currently at the end of the trend. Geopolitical risks, industrial supply - demand gaps, and market funds drive the price up. In the long - term, the price center has the basis to move up, but short - term correction risks exist [32]. - It is recommended to wait and see in the medium term [32]. 1.3 Summary by Directory 2.3.1 Medium - term Market Analysis - Trend: The overall trend of Shanghai Silver futures is strongly rising, currently at the end of the trend [32]. - Driving Factors: Last week's price increase was driven by geopolitical risks, industrial supply - demand gaps, and market funds [32]. - Support: In the long - term, the price center has the basis to move up due to the growth of green industry demand, continuous supply - demand gaps, and asset allocation diversification [32]. - Risks: Short - term risks include overbought technical indicators, ETF reductions, and policy uncertainties [32]. - Focus: Future attention should be on the Fed's policy and global manufacturing PMI [32]. - Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [32]. 2.3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: The silver contract 2604 was trading at a high level, with a resistance level of 23,200 - 23,700 yuan and a support level of 21,000 - 21,500 yuan/kg. It was advised to buy on dips and control positions due to high - level volatility [35]. - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: The silver contract 2604 is trading at a high level, with a support level of 22,500 - 23,000 yuan/kg. It is advised to buy on dips and control positions due to high - level volatility [36]. - Market Conditions: The daily line is in a strong upward phase, possibly near the end of the trend. The main force shows a strong bullish sentiment, with large capital inflows and increased attention. The external market had a significant pre - opening increase [37]. 2.3.3 Relevant Data Situation - Data includes the price trends of Shanghai Silver and COMEX silver, SLV silver ETF holdings, COMEX silver inventory, Shanghai Silver basis, and the silver price difference between domestic and foreign markets [43][46][48]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a weekly report on rebar and iron ore futures from January 26th to January 30th, 2026 [1][2] Group 2: Rebar Futures Analysis 2.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - The main contract of rebar futures is in a sideways consolidation range of 2882 - 3330. The weekly output is 2 million tons, the apparent consumption is 1.85 million tons, the inventory of major steel mills is 1.48 million tons, and the social inventory is 4.88 million tons. The market attention has slightly declined. A grid trading strategy is recommended with an antenna of 3330, a ground line of 2882, a grid spacing of 32, and 14 grid numbers [7] 2.2 Trading Strategy - Last week, the main contract of rebar futures entered an oscillatory consolidation range. This week, a large - grid trading strategy can be considered. For spot enterprises, it is recommended to wait and see until a new mid - term trend becomes clear [10][11][12] 2.3 Related Data - The data sources of the report are Wind, Mysteel, and the trading consultation department of Great Wall Futures [15][20][28] Group 3: Iron Ore Futures Analysis 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - The main contract of iron ore futures is in the fourth week of an oscillatory recovery phase. The global shipment volume last week was 29.29 million tons, the arrival volume at 45 major Chinese ports was 26.59 million tons, the inventory of steel enterprises was 93.88 million tons, and the inventory at domestic major ports was 167.66 million tons. The mid - term trend is in a red ladder channel. Steel production enterprises can consider a long - hedging strategy [34] 3.2 Trading Strategy - Last week, the mid - term price of iron ore was in the third week of the red ladder channel. This week, steel production and downstream demand enterprises can consider implementing a long - hedging strategy in steps at a 30% ratio [37] 3.3 Related Data - The data sources of the report are Wind, Mysteel, and the trading consultation department of Great Wall Futures [50]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is in a strong upward phase, possibly at the end of the trend. The overall trend of Shanghai Silver futures is also in a strong upward phase and currently at the end of the trend. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach for both gold and silver futures [7][35] 3. Summary According to the Directory Gold Futures 3.1.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - The Shanghai Gold futures are in a strong upward trend, possibly at the end. Last week, gold oscillated upwards under multiple positive factors. Geopolitical risks and the strengthening expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut were the core driving forces, and continuous gold purchases by global central banks provided long - term support. However, attention should be paid to the possible delay of the interest rate cut rhythm due to US inflation data and the risk of the extinction of the safe - haven premium caused by the easing of the geopolitical situation. It is recommended to wait and see [7] 3.1.2 Variety Trading Strategy - **Last week's strategy review**: For the Shanghai Gold contract 2604, it was short - term cautiously bullish, with the upper pressure level at 980 - 1000 yuan/gram and the lower support level at 950 - 970 yuan/gram. It was recommended to buy on dips and control the position due to large short - term fluctuations [10] - **This week's strategy recommendation**: For the Shanghai Gold contract 2604, it is short - term cautiously bullish, with the upper pressure level at 1011 - 1016 yuan/gram and the lower support level at 1000 - 1005 yuan/gram. It is recommended to buy on dips and control the position due to large short - term fluctuations at high levels [11] 3.1.3 Relevant Data Situation - The report presents the trends of Shanghai Gold and COMEX gold prices, SPDR gold ETF holdings, COMEX gold inventory, US 10 - year Treasury bond yield, US dollar index, US dollar against offshore RMB, gold - silver ratio, Shanghai Gold basis, and gold internal - external price difference through charts [20][23][26] Silver Futures 3.2.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - The Shanghai Silver futures are in a strong upward trend and currently at the end. Last week, silver closed higher in a volatile "roller - coaster" market. It was pushed up by geopolitical risks and interest rate cut expectations at the beginning of the week, then sharply corrected due to the significant reduction of the silver weight in the Bloomberg Commodity Index, and finally stabilized and rebounded. The market is characterized by high volatility due to the intense game between long and short factors. Attention should be paid to the impact of US CPI data on the interest rate cut path and the liquidity recovery after the index rebalancing. It is recommended to wait and see [35] 3.2.2 Variety Trading Strategy - **Last week's strategy review**: The silver contract 2604 was operating at a high level, with the upper pressure level at 17,800 - 18,000 yuan and the lower support level at 16,800 - 17,200 yuan/kg. It was recommended to buy on dips and control the position due to increased short - term fluctuations [38] - **This week's strategy recommendation**: The silver contract 2604 is operating at a high level, with the upper pressure level at 18,200 - 18,700 yuan and the lower support level at 19,000 - 19,500 yuan/kg. It is recommended to buy on dips and control the position due to increased short - term fluctuations at high levels [39] 3.2.3 Relevant Data Situation - The report shows the trends of Shanghai Silver and COMEX silver prices, SLV silver ETF holdings, COMEX silver inventory, Shanghai Silver basis, and silver internal - external price difference through charts [46][49][51]

Report Summary for Industrial Silicon and Lithium Carbonate Futures 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Industrial Silicon Futures**: Currently in a state of oscillatory movement. With stable spot prices last week, the AI - intelligent investment consultation report shows the daily price in a sideways phase, and the main funds have a strong bullish sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see [8][9]. - **Lithium Carbonate Futures**: Currently on an upward trend. The spot price increased last week, the AI - intelligent investment consultation report shows the futures in a strong upward phase, and the main funds have an obvious bullish attitude. It is recommended to buy on dips [34][35]. 3. Summary by Directory Industrial Silicon Futures - **Mid - term Market Analysis** - **Trend Judgment**: Industrial silicon futures are in an oscillatory state. As of January 9, the 421 price in Xinjiang was 9,050 yuan/ton, 9,900 yuan/ton in Yunnan, and 10,000 yuan/ton in Sichuan. The daily price is in a sideways phase, and the main funds are bullish [8]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait and see due to the oscillatory movement [9]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The 2605 contract oscillated in the range of 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton. - **This Week's Strategy Recommendation**: The main contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton [12]. - **Related Data Situation** - As of April 19, 2024, the SHFE cathode copper inventory was 300,045 tons, an increase of 322 tons from the previous week, and it is at a relatively high level compared to the past five - year seasonality [14]. - As of April 19, 2024, the LME copper inventory was 122,125 tons, with a cancelled warrant ratio of 25.73%, and it is at a relatively low level compared to the past five - year seasonality [18]. Lithium Carbonate Futures - **Mid - term Market Analysis** - **Trend Judgment**: Lithium carbonate futures are on an upward trend. As of January 9, the market price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 136,300 yuan/ton, and that of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 139,100 yuan/ton. The daily futures price is in a strong upward phase, and the main funds are bullish [34][35]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy on dips as the bottom is rising [35]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The main contract should focus on the support in the range of 100,000 - 105,000 yuan. - **This Week's Strategy Recommendation**: The main contract should focus on the support in the range of 116,000 - 118,000 yuan [38][39]. - **Related Data Situation** - As of April 19, 2024, the SHFE electrolytic aluminum inventory was 228,537 tons, a decrease of 3,228 tons from the previous week, and it is at a relatively low level compared to the past five - year seasonality [42]. - As of April 19, 2024, the LME aluminum inventory was 504,000 tons, with a cancelled warrant ratio of 66.03%, and it is at a relatively low level compared to the past five - year seasonality [47].