Chang Cheng Qi Huo
Search documents
黄金、白银期货品种周报-20251027
Chang Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-10-27 05:02
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Gold**: The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is in an upward channel, possibly at the end of the trend. Short - term may continue to fluctuate in the range of $4000 - 4200, with increased volatility risk. In the medium - to - long - term, there is still an upward basis, and the correction may be an opportunity for layout. It is recommended to wait and see [7][8]. - **Silver**: The overall trend of Shanghai Silver futures is in a strong upward stage, currently at the end of the trend. Short - term may continue to fluctuate in the range of $47 - 50, with increased volatility risk. In the medium - to - long - term, there is still an upward basis, and attention should be paid to the impact of geopolitical situation and liquidity changes on prices. It is recommended to wait and see [29]. 3. Summary by Directory Gold Futures 3.1.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is in an upward channel, possibly at the end of the trend [7]. - **Judgment Logic**: At the beginning of last week, gold prices dropped significantly from the high due to geopolitical risk mitigation, long - position profit - taking, and short - term liquidity tightening. Then it formed an oscillating balance in the range of $4100 - 4150 for three trading days [7]. - **Future Outlook**: Short - term may continue to fluctuate in the range of $4000 - 4200, with increased volatility risk; in the medium - to - long - term, supported by the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle, global central bank gold purchases, and the de - dollarization trend, the upward basis still exists, and the correction may be an opportunity for layout [7]. - **Mid - line Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see [8]. 3.1.2 Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: For the gold contract 2512, be vigilant against the technical correction caused by the departure of profit - taking positions. The lower support level is 898 - 903, and it is recommended to wait and see [10]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The gold contract 2512 is expected to fluctuate at a high level. The upper resistance is 960 - 965, and the lower support is 920 - 925. It is recommended to wait and see [11]. 3.1.3 Relevant Data Situation - Multiple data charts are provided, including the price trends of Shanghai Gold and COMEX Gold, SPDR Gold ETF holdings, COMEX Gold inventory, US 10 - year Treasury yield, US dollar index, US dollar against offshore RMB, gold - silver ratio, Shanghai Gold basis, and gold internal - external price difference [17][19][21][23][25]. Silver Futures 3.2.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: The overall trend of Shanghai Silver futures is in a strong upward stage, currently at the end of the trend [29]. - **Judgment Logic**: Last week, silver prices showed the characteristics of "rising, correcting, and then oscillating and consolidating". At the beginning of the week, due to the cooling of risk - aversion sentiment, the alleviation of liquidity tension, and long - position profit - taking, the price dropped significantly from the high, and then formed a short - term balance in the range of $48 - 48.7 for three trading days [29]. - **Future Outlook**: Short - term may continue to fluctuate in the range of $47 - 50, with increased volatility risk; in the medium - to - long - term, supported by the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and the global de - dollarization trend, the upward basis still exists. Attention should be paid to the impact of the repeated geopolitical situation and liquidity changes on prices [29]. - **Mid - line Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see [29]. 3.2.2 Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: It was expected that silver would mainly fluctuate at a high level. It was recommended to buy on dips, and the lower support range was 10700 - 11000 [32]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: It is expected that the main silver contract 2512 will mainly fluctuate at a high level. The upper resistance is 11785 - 12085, and the lower support is 10915 - 11285. It is recommended to wait and see [33]. 3.2.3 Relevant Data Situation - Multiple data charts are provided, including the price trends of Shanghai Silver and COMEX Silver, SLV Silver ETF holdings, COMEX Silver inventory, Shanghai Silver basis, and silver internal - external price difference [40][42][44].
豆粕、豆油期货品种周报-20251027
Chang Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-10-27 03:24
Group 1: Report Overview - Report period: October 27 - 31, 2025 [1] - Report title: Weekly Report on Soybean Meal and Soybean Oil Futures [2] - Reported futures varieties: Soybean meal and soybean oil [2] Group 2: Soybean Meal Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term trend: The main soybean meal contract is in a wide - range oscillation phase. The high inventory and high operation rate of oil mills continuously suppress the spot price, and the poor downstream breeding profit leads to cautious procurement by feed enterprises, resulting in weak demand - side support. However, the cost - effectiveness of soybean meal becomes apparent after the price drops to a low level, and the expected monthly decline in soybean arrivals in the fourth quarter provides bottom support. [6] - Trend judgment logic: In the 42nd week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.1662 million tons, the operation rate was 59.59%, and the soybean meal inventory was 976,200 tons. [6] - Mid - term strategy suggestion: Pay attention to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations. [6] 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The overall trend of soybean meal futures prices was in a downward channel, and the capital was slightly bearish. In the short term, M2601 may continue the oscillation and consolidation pattern, with an expected operating range of 2,800 - 3,000. [9] - This week's strategy suggestion: The overall trend of soybean meal futures prices is in an upward channel, and the capital is relatively bullish. In the short term, M2601 may be in a slightly stronger oscillation phase, with an expected operating range of 2,880 - 3,050. [10] 3. Relevant Data - Data includes: Weekly soybean meal production, weekly soybean meal inventory, apparent consumption, weekly inventory days, soybean meal basis, and oil - meal ratio. [18][22][25] Group 3: Soybean Oil Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term trend: The main soybean oil contract is in a wide - range oscillation phase. The sufficient arrival of domestic soybeans, high operation of oil mills, and high commercial inventory (although it decreased slightly week - on - week) combined with weak demand, but strong exports and potential benefits from US biodiesel policies make soybean oil relatively strong among oils and fats. [30] - Trend judgment logic: In the 42nd week, the actual soybean oil production of 125 oil mills was 41,160 tons, and the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions was 1.224 million tons. [30] - Mid - term strategy suggestion: Pay attention to Sino - US trade trends, the progress of US biodiesel, and the promotion rhythm of Indonesia's B50 policy. [30] 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The overall trend of soybean oil futures prices was in a sideways phase, and the capital was slightly bearish. In the short term, Y2601 may be in a range - bound oscillation pattern. [33] - This week's strategy suggestion: The overall trend of soybean oil futures prices is in a sideways phase, and the capital is relatively bearish. In the short term, Y2601 may continue the range - bound oscillation pattern. [33] 3. Relevant Data - Data includes: Weekly soybean oil production, weekly soybean oil inventory, soybean oil basis, soybean oil trading volume, weekly soybean arrival volume, weekly soybean inventory, weekly soybean crushing volume, weekly soybean operation rate, weekly port inventory, and Brazilian premium. [43][47][50][55][58]
工业硅、碳酸锂期货品种周报-20251027
Chang Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-10-27 02:59
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Industrial silicon futures are currently in a large - range operation. The 2601 contract is expected to operate between 7,500 and 10,000 yuan. The trading strategy is to buy on dips [8][9]. - Lithium carbonate futures are also in a large - range operation. The 2601 contract is expected to operate between 68,000 and 100,000 yuan. The trading strategy is to buy on dips [31][32]. 3. Summary by Directory Industrial Silicon Futures - **Mid - line Market Analysis** - The industrial silicon futures are in a large - range operation. The spot price was stable last week. As of October 24, the 421 price was 9,100 yuan/ton in Xinjiang, 9,900 yuan/ton in Yunnan, and 10,000 yuan/ton in Sichuan. The AI report shows the price is in a sideways phase, and the main force has a bearish attitude. The 2601 contract is expected to operate between 7,500 and 10,000 yuan [8][9]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - Last week and this week, the strategy is to buy on dips as the industrial silicon is in a large - range operation [12][13]. - **Related Data Situation** - As of April 19, 2024, the SHFE cathode copper inventory was 300,045 tons, an increase of 322 tons from the previous week, and it is at a relatively high level compared to the past five years. The LME copper inventory was 122,125 tons, with a cancellation warrant ratio of 25.73%, and it is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [15][19]. Lithium Carbonate Futures - **Mid - line Market Analysis** - Lithium carbonate futures are in a large - range operation. The spot price rose last week. As of October 24, the market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 77,600 yuan/ton, and that of industrial - grade was 76,150 yuan/ton. The AI report shows the futures are in a sideways phase, and the main force has no obvious long - short bias. The 2601 contract is expected to operate between 68,000 and 100,000 yuan [31][32]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - Last week and this week, the strategy is to buy on dips as the lithium carbonate is in a large - range operation [35]. - **Related Data Situation** - As of April 19, 2024, the SHFE electrolytic aluminum inventory was 228,537 tons, a decrease of 3,228 tons from the previous week, and it is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years. The LME aluminum inventory was 504,000 tons, with a cancellation warrant ratio of 66.03%, and it is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [38][39].
纯碱、玻璃期货品种周报-20251027
Chang Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-10-27 02:55
Report Overview - The report is a weekly report on soda ash and glass futures from October 27 - 31, 2025 [1][2] Soda Ash Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term trend: Soda ash futures are in a volatile phase. The domestic soda ash market had a narrow - range oscillation last week, with only a slight increase in the price of light soda ash in North China. Supply remained high, demand was weak, and the oversupply situation was hard to change. The price is expected to be stable but weak, and the trading center may move down further. The futures may be more affected by emotions in the short term due to the approaching policy window [7] - Strategy suggestion: It is recommended to wait and see [7] 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The domestic soda ash market continued its weak trend last week, with prices generally falling. Affected by supply - demand imbalance, the market was under pressure. It was expected that the price would continue to be weakly volatile in the short term, with a limited downward space. The expected operating range of soda ash 2601 was 1100 - 1250 [10] - This week's strategy suggestion: The domestic soda ash market had a narrow - range oscillation last week. Supply remained high, demand was weak, and inventory accumulated. The short - term supply - demand pattern is expected to remain loose, and the price will be stable but weak. The expected operating range of soda ash 2601 is still 1100 - 1250 [11] 3. Relevant Data - Data includes China's weekly soda ash开工率, production, light and heavy soda ash inventory, basis (daily), and the production cost of the ammonia - soda process in North China (weekly). The variety diagnosis shows that the main force is slightly bearish, the capital energy is basically stable, and the risk of a market reversal is relatively high [12][16][18][22] Glass Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term trend: Glass is in an oscillating trend. The spot price of float glass in China dropped by 30 - 90 yuan/ton last week, with significant declines in the southwest, north, and northeast. Supply was abundant, inventory accumulated, and demand was weak. The short - term weak - oscillation pattern is expected to continue. The glass futures reached a new low after a one - sided decline and then stabilized weakly. The market is still bearish, and the follow - up should focus on policies and seasonal changes [30] - Strategy suggestion: It is recommended to hold an empty position and wait and see [30] 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The domestic float glass market was generally weak last week, with prices falling in most regions. Demand recovered slowly, inventory pressure remained, and supply increase expectations further suppressed the market. The short - term narrow - range oscillation was expected to continue, and the futures also weakened [33] - This week's strategy suggestion: The spot price of float glass in China dropped last week. Supply - demand was loose, inventory accumulated, and demand was weak. The short - term weakness is expected to continue. The futures were under pressure, and the rebound power was insufficient [34] 3. Relevant Data - Data includes China's weekly float glass production,开工率, production cost and gross profit of the float process using natural gas as fuel, basis (daily), and ending inventory. The variety diagnosis shows that the main force is strongly bearish, the capital inflow is large, and the risk of a market reversal is high [36][39][41][46]
电解铝期货品种周报-20251027
Chang Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-10-27 02:46
Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives an investment rating of "Bullish Oscillation" for the electrolytic aluminum industry [3][10] Core Viewpoints - The domestic electrolytic aluminum market will remain in a tight - balance state in the fourth quarter, with low domestic and foreign visible inventories and anti - involution factors. The core driver of aluminum prices remains strong. Recently, the Sino - US tariff confrontation has eased, and there is an expected Fed rate cut at the end of the month, so the market at the end of the month should be treated bullishly [4][10] - The opening rates of different downstream aluminum processing sectors show differentiation. While the overall short - term opening rate will continue the stable trend [9][23] - The price of bauxite has slightly adjusted, coal prices have rebounded, and alumina prices have continued to decline in a volatile manner since mid - August due to over - capacity [11] Detailed Summaries by Catalog Overall Situation - The Guinea rainy - season impact on bauxite is weakening, with increased ore shipments and higher mine复产 expectations. The domestic bauxite supply is constrained by policies. The alumina production capacity is increasing, and the over - supply is widening. The growth of domestic electrolytic aluminum production is limited in the fourth quarter [8] - The opening rates of different downstream aluminum products vary. The overall short - term opening rate of the downstream processing industry will remain stable [9][23][24] - The current profit of alumina is about 10 yuan/ton, and the profit of electrolytic aluminum is about 4000 yuan/ton, remaining at a relatively high level [10][18] - The market is affected by Sino - US trade negotiations and the Fed's interest - rate decision. Any positive or negative signals will strongly affect the sentiment of global risk assets [10] Price Changes - The price of bauxite has slightly adjusted. Coal prices have rebounded due to safety inspections and early heating starts. Alumina prices have continued to decline since mid - August due to over - capacity [11] - The prices of most aluminum - related products have increased week - on - week, such as the Shanghai Aluminum main - contract closing price, electrolytic aluminum A00, and aluminum alloy ingot ADC12 [11] Inventory Changes - The port inventory of imported bauxite has decreased. The alumina inventory has continued to accumulate. The domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory has decreased slightly, and the LME aluminum inventory is at a low level and may continue to be sorted at a low level [14][16] Supply and Demand - The overall opening rate of domestic downstream aluminum processing has decreased slightly, showing the characteristics of "stable in the peak season and differentiated internally" [23] - The short - term opening rate of primary aluminum alloy will continue to rise steadily; the demand for aluminum strip is expected to weaken; the aluminum cable high - voltage department has guaranteed orders but limited new growth; automotive profiles are relatively stable, while construction profiles are sluggish, and photovoltaic profiles face production cuts; some aluminum foil orders have weakened; and the resilience of recycled aluminum orders still exists [23] Futures Structure - The current Shanghai Aluminum futures price structure is neutral [26] Spread Structure - The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 is about - 2180 yuan/ton, and the current spread has a moderately positive impact on electrolytic aluminum [33][34] Market Funds - The net long position of LME aluminum continues to rise and is near the high since April 2022. The overall market is still treated bullishly [36] - The net long position of the SHFE electrolytic aluminum remains stable at a recent high. The main funds are slightly bullish [39]
豆粕、豆油期货品种周报2025.10.20-10.24-20251020
Chang Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-10-20 02:53
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - **General**: The report focuses on the weekly situation of soybean meal and soybean oil futures, including their mid - term trends, trading strategies, and related data [6][31]. - **Soybean Meal**: The soybean meal futures are in a stage of shock consolidation. The high domestic soybean arrival, high inventory, and weak demand suppress price increases, but the policy on port fees may affect the arrival rhythm in the fourth quarter [6]. - **Soybean Oil**: The soybean oil futures are in a horizontal shock stage. The abundant global and domestic soybean supply, slow demand recovery, and price fluctuations of competing products lead to market wait - and - see sentiment [31]. 3. Summary by Directory Soybean Meal Futures - **Mid - term Market Analysis** - **Trend**: The soybean meal main contract is in a shock consolidation stage. In the 41st week, the oil mill's soybean actual crushing volume was 1.2893 million tons, the startup rate was 35.99%, and the soybean meal inventory was 1.0791 million tons. High domestic soybean arrival, high inventory, and weak demand suppress price increases, but the policy on port fees may affect the arrival rhythm in the fourth quarter [6]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to Sino - US trade progress and South American weather [6]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - **Last Week's Review**: The soybean meal futures price was in a downward channel, and funds were bearish. The M2601 was expected to fluctuate between 2880 - 3050 in the short term [9]. - **This Week's Suggestion**: The soybean meal futures price is in a downward channel, and funds are slightly bearish. The M2601 is expected to continue the shock consolidation pattern, with an expected operating range of 2800 - 3000 [10]. - **Related Data Situation**: The report mentions data such as soybean meal weekly output, weekly inventory, apparent consumption, weekly inventory days, basis, and oil - meal ratio [20][23][26]. Soybean Oil Futures - **Mid - term Market Analysis** - **Trend**: The soybean oil main contract is in a horizontal shock stage. In the 41st week, the actual output of 125 oil mills was 245,000 tons, a decrease of 88,600 tons from the previous week. The commercial inventory in key national regions was 1.2651 million tons, an increase of 16,400 tons from the previous week. Abundant supply, slow demand recovery, and price fluctuations of competing products lead to market wait - and - see sentiment [31]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to Sino - US trade trends and the progress of Indonesia's B50 policy [31]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - **Last Week's Review**: The soybean oil futures price was in a horizontal stage, and funds were bullish. The Y2601 was expected to be in a wide - range shock pattern in the short term [34]. - **This Week's Suggestion**: The soybean oil futures price is in a horizontal stage, and funds are slightly bearish. The Y2601 is expected to be in a range - shock pattern in the short term [34]. - **Related Data Situation**: The report mentions data such as soybean oil weekly output, weekly inventory, basis, trading volume, soybean weekly arrival volume, weekly inventory, weekly crushing volume, weekly startup rate, weekly port inventory, and Brazilian premium [43][49][51].
螺纹钢、铁矿石期货品种周报-20251020
Chang Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-10-20 02:48
Group 1: Overall Information - Report period: October 20 - 24, 2025 [1] - Reported futures varieties: Rebar and iron ore [2] Group 2: Rebar Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term trend: The main contract of rebar futures is in a sideways consolidation range [7] - Trend judgment logic: Weekly rebar production is 2.01 million tons, apparent consumption is 2.19 million tons, major steel mill inventory is 1.84 million tons, and social inventory is 6.81 million tons [7] - Mid - term strategy: Consider a grid trading strategy with an antenna of 3330, a ground line of 2882, a grid spacing of 32, and a grid quantity of 14 [7] 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The main contract of rebar futures entered an oscillatory consolidation range [10] - This week's strategy: The main contract of rebar futures enters a sideways consolidation range, and a large - grid trading strategy can be considered [11] - Spot enterprise hedging advice: Wait and see until the mid - term trend becomes clear [12] 3. Related Data - Data includes variety diagnosis and selected indicators, but specific data is not detailed in the provided text [21][23] Group 3: Iron Ore Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term trend: The main contract of iron ore futures is in a sideways consolidation stage [29] - Trend judgment logic: In terms of supply, the global iron ore shipping volume last week was 3.207 million tons, the arrival volume at 45 major Chinese ports was 3.045 million tons, steel enterprise inventory was 8.982 million tons, and domestic major port inventory was 14.278 million tons [29] - Mid - term strategy: Consider implementing a grid trading strategy [29] 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The iron ore mid - term price was in an oscillatory consolidation stage [32] - This week's strategy: The AI intelligent system suggests implementing a grid trading strategy with an antenna of 872, a ground line of 732, a grid spacing of 10, and a grid quantity of 14 [33] 3. Related Data - Data includes variety diagnosis and selected indicators, but specific data is not detailed in the provided text [44][48]
工业硅、碳酸锂期货品种周报-20251020
Chang Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-10-20 02:01
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - Both industrial silicon and lithium carbonate futures are currently in a wide - range oscillation. For industrial silicon, the 2511 contract is expected to trade between 7,700 and 10,000 yuan; for lithium carbonate, the 2511 contract is expected to move in the range of 65,000 to 100,000 yuan [8][30]. 3. Summaries by Section Industrial Silicon Futures - **Mid - term Market Analysis** - Industrial silicon futures are in a large - range oscillation. As of October 17, the 421 price in Xinjiang was 9,100 yuan/ton, 9,900 yuan/ton in Yunnan, and 10,000 yuan/ton in Sichuan. The daily price is generally in a downward channel, and the main short - side camp has a slight advantage [7]. - The industrial silicon 2511 contract is expected to operate between 7,700 and 10,000 [8]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - Last week, the strategy was to mainly buy on dips; this week, it is advisable to consider grid trading within the range [11][12]. - **Related Data** - As of April 19, 2024, the SHFE cathode copper inventory was 300,045 tons, an increase of 322 tons from the previous week, and it was at a relatively high level compared to the past five years [14]. - As of April 19, 2024, the LME copper inventory was 122,125 tons, with a canceled warrant ratio of 25.73%, and it was at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [18]. Lithium Carbonate Futures - **Mid - term Market Analysis** - Lithium carbonate futures are in a large - range oscillation. As of October 17, the market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,750 yuan/ton, and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 72,250 yuan/ton. The daily chart of lithium carbonate futures is in a sideways phase, and the main funds show a strong bearish sentiment [30]. - The lithium carbonate 2511 contract is expected to operate between 65,000 and 100,000 yuan [30]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - Last week, the strategy was to consider grid trading; this week, it is advisable to mainly buy on dips as it moves in a large range [33]. - **Related Data** - As of April 19, 2024, the SHFE electrolytic aluminum inventory was 228,537 tons, a decrease of 3,228 tons from the previous week, and it was at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [36]. - As of April 19, 2024, the LME aluminum inventory was 504,000 tons, with a canceled warrant ratio of 66.03%, and it was at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [41].
纯碱、玻璃期货品种周报-20251020
Chang Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-10-20 01:50
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The soda ash futures market is in a weak and volatile stage, and the glass futures market is also showing a weak and volatile trend. The main contradiction in the current soda ash market is the imbalance between supply and demand, and the glass market is also affected by factors such as slow demand recovery and increased supply expectations [6][30] - For soda ash futures, it is recommended to wait and see in the medium - term, and expect the operating range of soda ash 2601 to be 1100 - 1250 this week. For glass futures, it is recommended to hold an empty - position and wait and see, and the market is expected to continue narrow - range fluctuations in the short term [6][30] Group 3: Summary According to the Catalog Soda Ash Futures 1. Mid - line Market Analysis - The soda ash futures are in a volatile stage. The domestic soda ash market was stable to weak last week, with significant price drops in the northwest region. The main contradiction is the imbalance between supply and demand, with continuous supply pressure and weak demand. In the short term, the price may continue to be weakly volatile, but the downward space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [6] 2. Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: Soda ash futures were weakly volatile last week. The weekly output was 77.69 tons, the operating rate dropped to 88.41%, and the total inventory increased to 165.98 tons. The overall supply was strong, and the demand was difficult to exceed expectations. It was expected that the operating range of soda ash 2601 was 1200 - 1350 [9] - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The domestic soda ash market continued the weak trend last week. It is expected that the price will still be weakly volatile in the short term, but the downward space is limited. The expected operating range of soda ash 2601 is 1100 - 1250 [10] 3. Relevant Data Situation - The relevant data include soda ash's operating rate, output, light - weight and heavy - weight inventory, basis, and ammonia - soda production cost in North China (weekly data) [11][15][18] Glass Futures 1. Mid - line Market Analysis - The glass is in an oscillating trend. The domestic float glass market was generally weak last week. After the festival, the demand recovery was limited, the enterprise inventory pressure remained, and some manufacturers had difficulty in maintaining prices. The glass futures price declined unilaterally. It is recommended to hold an empty - position and wait and see [30] 2. Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: Float glass futures were oscillating and strengthening since September 28. The weekly output increased to 112.89 tons, the operating rate remained stable, the capacity utilization rate increased slightly, and the inventory decreased slightly. The market was supported by policies but the supply - demand contradiction was not resolved. It was expected that the operating range of glass 2601 was 1150 - 1300, and it was advisable to hold an empty - position and wait and see [33] - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The domestic float glass market was generally weak last week. The demand recovered slowly, the enterprise inventory pressure remained, and the supply increase expectation further suppressed the market. The futures also weakened, and it is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend in the short term [34] 3. Relevant Data Situation - The relevant data include float glass's output, operating rate, production cost and gross profit of the float process using natural gas as fuel, basis, and ending inventory (weekly data) [36][39][41]
黄金、白银期货品种周报-20251020
Chang Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-10-20 01:49
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Gold**: The overall trend of Shanghai gold futures is in an upward channel, currently possibly at the end of the trend. In the short - term, the market may maintain high - level oscillations. In the long - term, the long - term support factors remain unchanged, and gold has a solid foundation for long - term growth. It is recommended to wait and see in the medium - term, and for the current week, the main gold contract 2512 is expected to oscillate strongly at a high level, and it is advisable to buy on dips [7][8][11]. - **Silver**: The overall trend of Shanghai silver futures is in a strong upward stage, currently at the end of the trend. In the short - term, it is necessary to be vigilant against fluctuations caused by high - level profit - taking and the easing of the geopolitical situation. In the long - term, the upward logic remains unchanged, and the silver price is expected to continue the upward trend in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to wait and see in the medium - term, and for the current week, silver is expected to oscillate strongly at a high level, and it is advisable to buy on dips [32][33][37]. 3. Summary by Catalog Gold Futures - **Mid - line Market Analysis** - **Trend Judgment**: The overall trend of Shanghai gold futures is in an upward channel, currently possibly at the end of the trend [7]. - **Trend Logic**: Last week, the gold price continued to soar under multiple positive factors, but there was an obvious correction on Friday. This week, the market may maintain high - level oscillations. In the long - term, factors such as continuous gold purchases by global central banks, damage to the US dollar credit system, and the continuation of the monetary easing cycle support the long - term rise of gold [7]. - **Mid - line Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see [8]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: For the gold contract 2512, be vigilant against technical corrections caused by the departure of profit - taking orders, with the lower support level at 898 - 903, and it was recommended to wait and see [10]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The main gold contract 2512 is expected to oscillate strongly at a high level. It is recommended to buy on dips, with the upper resistance level at 985 - 1000 and the lower support level at 950 - 965 [11]. - **Related Data Situation** - Data on the price trends of Shanghai gold and COMEX gold, SPDR gold ETF holdings, COMEX gold inventory, US 10 - year Treasury bond yields, US dollar index, US dollar against offshore RMB, gold - silver ratio, Shanghai gold basis, and gold internal - external price difference are presented in graphical form [19][22][24] Silver Futures - **Mid - line Market Analysis** - **Trend Judgment**: The overall trend of Shanghai silver futures is in a strong upward stage, currently at the end of the trend [32]. - **Trend Logic**: Last week, silver reached a phased high, driven by factors such as structural shortages in the London spot market, strengthened expectations of Fed interest rate cuts, continuous reduction of domestic inventories, and increased capital activity. In the long - term, the upward logic remains unchanged, and the silver price is expected to continue the upward trend in the fourth quarter, but short - term fluctuations need attention [32]. - **Mid - line Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see [33]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: It was expected that silver would mainly oscillate at a high level, and it was recommended to buy on dips, with the lower support range at 10700 - 11000 [36]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: Silver is expected to oscillate strongly at a high level. It is recommended to buy on dips, with the lower support range at 10940 - 11240 [37]. - **Related Data Situation** - Data on the price trends of Shanghai silver and COMEX silver, SLV silver ETF holdings, COMEX silver inventory, Shanghai silver basis, and silver internal - external price difference are presented in graphical form [44][46][48]