1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "Bullish Oscillation" rating for the electrolytic aluminum industry [12] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The electrolytic aluminum market in China will remain in a tight - balanced state in the fourth quarter, and the domestic and foreign visible inventories are at historically low levels. However, Sino - US trade confrontation has cast a shadow over domestic demand. Recently, the market may continue the high - level oscillation pattern, with the AI2512 range expected to be between 20,600 and 21,300 [5][12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: The market is expected to show a bullish oscillation. The core drivers of aluminum prices remain strong due to the tight - balanced state of domestic electrolytic aluminum in the fourth quarter, low visible inventories at home and abroad, and anti - involution. But Sino - US trade confrontation affects domestic demand. It is recommended to hold medium - term long positions below 20,000 [5] 3.2 Variety Trading Strategies - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: Not mentioned in detail - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: It is advisable to wait and see. Consider grid trading based on the recent fluctuation range. If the price reaches 21,300 during the week, appropriate short - term long positions can be added [8] - **Hedging Suggestion for Spot Enterprises**: Maintain an appropriate inventory. If the price is below 20,000 yuan, consider replenishing the inventory [9] 3.3 Overall Viewpoints Supply - **Bauxite Market**: The impact of the rainy season in Guinea is weakening, and the ore shipment volume is increasing. The supply of imported ore is expected to be abundant in the fourth quarter. Domestic mine governance policies will restrict domestic ore supply in the long term, and the supply is unlikely to improve significantly in the fourth quarter [10] - **Alumina Market**: As of October 17, the domestic alumina production capacity was about 112.55 million tons, and the operating capacity was about 96.8 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of about 86.22%. Alumina plants are still profitable, and production will continue to increase, with the surplus expanding [10] - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: In September, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production was 3.6148 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.14% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.18%. The annual net increase in production is expected to be less than 0.5 million tons. In the fourth quarter, production may remain high but with limited growth [10] - **Import and Export**: The theoretical loss of electrolytic aluminum imports is about 2,340 yuan/ton. The export volume of unforged aluminum products decreased slightly in August and September, and the intensifying Sino - US trade confrontation may put pressure on exports from November to December [10] Demand - **Aluminum Profiles**: The weekly operating rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 53.5%. The photovoltaic profiles were significantly affected by the reduction in downstream component factory production. The operating rate is expected to be stable but weak in the short term [11] - **Aluminum Plate, Strip, and Foil**: The operating rate of leading aluminum plate and strip enterprises remained stable at 68.0%, and is expected to decline gradually. The operating rate of leading aluminum foil enterprises remained stable at 72.3%, but may weaken due to weakening demand [11] - **Aluminum Cables and Wires**: The operating rate remained stable at 64%, and is expected to remain weakly stable [11] - **Alloys**: The operating rate of primary aluminum alloys increased by 0.4 percentage points to 58.4%, and is expected to continue to be stable. The operating rate of recycled aluminum leading enterprises decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 58.6%, and is expected to decline slightly in October [11] Inventory - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 626,000 tons, a decrease of about 4% from last week and about 3% from the same period last year. The supply pressure of aluminum ingots is limited. The inventory of aluminum rods was 143,100 tons, an increase of about 2% from last week and about 8% from the same period last year. The LME aluminum inventory decreased by about 3% from last week and about 36% from the same period last year, and is expected to remain low [11][17] Profit and Market Expectation - **Alumina Profit**: The average full - cost of the domestic alumina industry is about 2,860 yuan/ton, and the profit is about 20 yuan/ton [12] - **Electrolytic Aluminum Profit**: The average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 17,000 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is about 3,800 yuan/ton [12] - **Market Expectation**: The market is likely to continue the high - level bullish oscillation at the beginning of the week. However, the downstream's willingness to chase high prices is insufficient after "Silver October" is half over. There is a risk of the price rising and then falling [12] 3.4 Important Industrial Link Price Changes - The prices of bauxite remained stable overall. The price of alumina continued to decline in an oscillatory manner. The price of thermal coal increased due to safety inspections and early heating in the north. The prices of electrolytic aluminum and alloys were adjusted to some extent [13][14] 3.5 Important Industrial Link Inventory Changes - The inventory of imported bauxite at domestic ports increased slightly, and the supply is abundant. The overall inventory of alumina continued to accumulate. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots decreased, and the inventory of aluminum rods increased. The LME aluminum inventory decreased [15][17] 3.6 Supply - Demand Situation - The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises remained stable at 62.5%. The production of primary aluminum alloys was stable, while the procurement of aluminum plate and strip enterprises was cautious. The aluminum cable and wire industry was suppressed by multiple factors. The demand for aluminum profiles was weak, and the export of aluminum foil was affected by sanctions. The demand for recycled aluminum was weak [25] 3.7 Futures - Spot Structure - The current futures price structure of Shanghai aluminum is weak [31] 3.8 Spread Structure - The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 was about - 2,160 yuan/ton. The current spread between primary aluminum and alloys is at a relatively low level in recent years and has a moderately positive impact on electrolytic aluminum [38][39] 3.9 Market Capital Situation - **LME Aluminum**: The net long position continued to rise and is near the high level since April 2022. The long - position camp has been increasing positions since June, and the short - position camp has been on the sidelines since October [41] - **SHFE Electrolytic Aluminum**: The net long position of the main contract increased slightly. The long - position camp increased positions slightly, and the short - position camp remained stable. The net long position of funds mainly for financial speculation increased slightly [44]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report period: October 13 - 17, 2025 [1] - Report title: Weekly Report on Gold and Silver Futures [2] Group 2: Gold Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term trend: The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is in an upward channel, currently possibly at the end of the trend [7] - Trend logic: Last week, gold prices fluctuated upward driven by factors such as the strengthening of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, the risk - aversion sentiment caused by the US government shutdown, continuous central - bank gold purchases, and investment fund inflows. The overall operation logic is a triple - drive pattern of "macro - easing expectation as the foundation, risk - aversion sentiment as the catalyst, and fund inflow as the boost" [7] - Short - term risk: After the rapid price increase, the SPDR holdings decreased by 1.14 tons on October 9, and the speculative sentiment index dropped from 779.55 to 607.38. There is a need to be vigilant against technical corrections caused by the departure of profit - taking positions [7] - Mid - term strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [8] 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The gold contract 2512 faced pressure to take profits at high levels, with the lower support level at 845 - 850. It was recommended to wait and see before the holiday [10] - This week's strategy: The gold contract 2512 needs to be vigilant against technical corrections caused by the departure of profit - taking positions, with the lower support level at 898 - 903. It is recommended to wait and see [11] 3. Relevant Data - The report provides multiple data charts, including the price trends of Shanghai Gold and COMEX gold, SPDR gold ETF holdings, COMEX gold inventory, US 10 - year Treasury yields, US dollar index, US dollar against offshore RMB, gold - silver ratio, Shanghai Gold basis, and gold internal - external price difference [18][21][23] Group 3: Silver Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term trend: The overall trend of Shanghai Silver futures is in a strong upward stage, currently at the end of the trend [31] - Trend logic: Last week, silver prices showed a pattern of "stabilizing at a low level - jumping up after the holiday - falling from a high level". The core drivers were the strengthening of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, tight supply in the spot market, and the resonance of industrial and investment demands. In the future, it is expected to remain strong. In the fourth quarter, silver prices are expected to continue the upward trend under the background of loose monetary policy, an expanding supply - demand gap, and continuous geopolitical risks, but short - term fluctuations caused by profit - taking at high levels and the easing of geopolitical situations need to be watched out for [31] - Mid - term strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [31] 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: It was expected that the silver contract 2512 would operate strongly, with the lower support range at 10400 - 10500. It was recommended to wait and see before the holiday [34] - This week's strategy: It is expected that silver will mainly fluctuate at a high level. It is recommended to buy on dips, with the lower support range at 10700 - 11000 [35] 3. Relevant Data - The report provides multiple data charts, including the price trends of Shanghai Silver and COMEX silver, SLV silver ETF holdings, COMEX silver inventory, Shanghai Silver basis, and silver internal - external price difference [42][44][46]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The main contracts of rebar and iron ore futures are in the sideways consolidation stage, and corresponding grid trading strategies are recommended [7][33] 3. Summary by Directory Rebar Futures 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - According to the comprehensive analysis of the Great Wall Futures AI intelligent big - data quantitative strategy model, the main contract of rebar futures is in the sideways consolidation range. The weekly output of rebar is 2.13 million tons, the apparent consumption is 1.92 million tons, the inventory of major steel mills is 1.78 million tons, and the social inventory is 7.25 million tons. A grid trading strategy can be considered during the consolidation stage, with the antenna at 3330, the ground line at 2882, the grid spacing at 32, and the number of grids at 14 [7] 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week, the main contract of rebar futures entered the shock consolidation range. This week, according to the Great Wall Futures AI intelligent big - data quantitative strategy model, it has entered the sideways consolidation range, and a large - grid trading strategy can be considered. Spot enterprises are advised to wait and see until the mid - term trend is clear [10][11][12] 3.3 Relevant Data Situation - The data sources of this report are Wind, MySteel, and the Great Wall Futures Trading Consultation Department. The variety diagnosis shows that the long - short flow is 44.2 (the main force is slightly bullish), the capital energy is 10.6 (the capital is basically stable), and the long - short divergence is 75.2 (there is a certain risk of market reversal) [26][16] Iron Ore Futures 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - According to the comprehensive analysis of the Great Wall Futures AI intelligent data model, the main contract of iron ore futures is in the sideways consolidation stage. In terms of supply, the global shipment volume of iron ore last week was 2.756 million tons, the arrival volume at 45 major ports in China was 2.443 million tons, the inventory of steel enterprises was 8.995 million tons, and the inventory at major domestic ports was 13.842 million tons. A grid trading strategy can be considered during the consolidation stage [33] 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week, the mid - term price of iron ore was in the shock consolidation stage. This week, the AI intelligent system suggests implementing a grid trading strategy during the consolidation stage, with the antenna at 872, the ground line at 732, the grid spacing at 10, and the number of grids at 14 [36][37] 3.3 Relevant Data Situation - The data sources of this report are Wind, MySteel, and the Great Wall Futures Trading Consultation Department [49]

2025.10.13-10.17 豆粕、豆油 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 豆粕期货 目录 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 Contents 中线行情分析 中线趋势来看，豆粕主力处于震荡整理的阶段。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 本周策略建议 豆粕期价整体趋势处于下行通道,资金方面较为偏空。M2601短 期内或将处于震荡整理的阶段，预计运行区间：2880-3050。 据Mysteel数据：第40周油厂大豆实际压榨量175.57万吨，开机率为 49.01%。国内大豆到港量持续处于高位，油厂压榨节奏虽在节日期间有 所放缓，但整体仍处于高压榨状态，而终端采购补库节奏趋于谨慎平缓。 同时，中美贸易关系的不确定性以及巴西升贴水的偏强运行，对豆粕价 格形成一定支撑。综合来看，豆粕期货处于震荡整理的阶段。 2 关注中美贸易进展及南美天气。 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 上周策略回顾 为规避十一长假期间外盘波动风险，建议轻仓或空仓过节。 品种诊断情况 | 豆粕(m) v v | | --- | | 品种诊断 机构观点 盈利席位 主力资金 | | 多空流向: -53.0 ~ - 主力较为偏 ...

2025.10.13-10.17 工业硅、碳酸锂 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 工业硅期货 目录 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 Contents 中线行情分析 工业硅期货目前处于大区间震荡运行。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 2 上周工业硅现货价格维稳，截至10月10日新疆地区421#价格9100元/吨， 云南地区421#价格9900元/吨，四川地区421#价格10000元/吨。长城期货 AI智能投询品种诊断报告显示工业硅价格日线处在横盘阶段。资金方面， 主力多头阵营略占优势。 预计工业硅2511合约运行区间在7700—10000之中。 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 上周策略回顾 为了控制国庆长假期间的不确定性风险，建议轻仓 或空仓过节。 本周策略建议 工业硅大区间运行，以逢低做多为主。 相关数据情况 截止至2024年04月19日，上海期货交易所阴极铜库存为300,045吨，较上一周增加322吨。从季节性角度分析，当前库存较近五年相比维持在较高水平。 SHF阴极铜库存走势 SHF阴极铜库存季节性分析 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 相关数据 ...

2025.10.13-10.17 纯碱、玻璃 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 纯碱期货 中线行情分析 目录 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 Contents 纯碱期货处于震荡阶段。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 上周纯碱期货延续弱势震荡。周度产量稳定在7 7 . 6 9万吨，开工率 由89.12%略降至88.41%。厂家总库存增加至165.98万吨，轻质纯 碱库存上升1万吨，重质库存微降。需求方面，浮法玻璃熔量维持 约16万吨/天，光伏玻璃熔量环比下降，纯碱表观消费量88.1万吨， 环比增长9.34万吨，但光伏减产抑制重碱需求。整体来看，纯碱市 场受新增产能释放影响，供应偏强，需求难超预期，价格或继续承 压下行。 2 建议观望。 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 上周策略回顾 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 上周国内纯碱市场窄幅震荡，价格区域分化，整体波动有限。 供应小幅回升，需求平稳但提振不足，企业以执行订单为主， 库存压力尚可。期货先跌后涨，受玻璃走势及节前补库带动 情绪回暖，但高库存制约反弹空间，短期预计延续震荡，需 关注基本面实质改善。预计 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The aluminum price may first decline and then rebound in the remaining days of October. The SHFE Aluminum 2511 contract may approach the level of around 19,800, with a high - level resistance at 21,300, showing a high - level wide - range oscillation [5][11]. - In the fourth quarter, the supply of bauxite is expected to be generally sufficient, and the price will fluctuate between 70 - 75 US dollars per ton. The supply of domestic ore is difficult to improve significantly. The alumina market may see some production cuts and maintenance due to falling prices. The growth of domestic electrolytic aluminum production is limited, and the export shows certain resilience [9]. - The start - up rates of various aluminum processing sectors have been slightly adjusted, with the start - up rate of recycled aluminum rising against the trend. The "Golden September and Silver October" is lackluster, and the short - term upward space for the start - up rate is restricted [22][23]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: The aluminum price may first decline and then rebound in the remaining days of October. The SHFE Aluminum 2511 contract may approach the level of around 19,800, with a high - level resistance at 21,300, showing a high - level wide - range oscillation. It is advisable to consider holding medium - term long positions below 20,000 [5]. 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The support level of SHFE Aluminum 2511 in the coming week was about 20,500, and the resistance level was about 20,900, for short - term trading [7]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: It is recommended to wait and see. Spot enterprises for hedging are advised to maintain an appropriate inventory and consider replenishing inventory when the price is below 20,000 yuan [8]. 3.3 Overall View 3.3.1 Raw Material Market - **Bauxite Market**: In the fourth quarter, the supply of bauxite is expected to be generally sufficient, and the price will fluctuate between 70 - 75 US dollars per ton. The domestic mine governance policy will have a long - term constraint on domestic ore, and the supply is difficult to improve significantly in the fourth quarter [9]. - **Alumina Market**: As of October 10, the domestic alumina production capacity utilization rate is at a high level since 2022. With the continuous decline of alumina prices, some high - cost enterprises may have production cuts and maintenance [9]. 3.3.2 Production - As of September 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is approaching the policy ceiling, and the room for further production increase is limited. The net increase in production throughout the year is expected to be less than 500,000 tons [9]. 3.3.3 Supply and Demand - **Demand**: The start - up rates of various aluminum processing sectors have been slightly adjusted. The start - up rate of recycled aluminum has risen against the trend, while the start - up rates of other sectors have declined to varying degrees. The "Golden September and Silver October" is lackluster, and the short - term upward space for the start - up rate is restricted [10][22][23]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots has increased by about 10% compared with last week, and the inventory of aluminum rods has increased by about 24%. The LME aluminum inventory is likely to continue to accumulate [10][16]. 3.3.4 Profit - **Alumina Profit**: The current average full - cost of the Chinese alumina industry is about 2,860 yuan per ton, and the profit is about 70 yuan per ton [11]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Profit**: The current average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 17,100 yuan per ton, and the theoretical profit is about 3,800 yuan per ton, at a relatively high level [11]. 3.3.5 Market Expectation - The additional 100% tariff and export control announced by Trump will cause metals to continue to decline at the beginning of next week to digest the negative impact of tariffs [11]. 3.4 Important Industry Link Price Changes - The prices of domestic bauxite are generally stable, while the prices of imported ores have declined. The price of alumina has continued to decline since mid - August, and it is difficult to change the situation before new capacity control measures are introduced. The price of electrolytic aluminum has risen slightly [12]. 3.5 Important Industry Link Inventory Changes - The inventory of domestic port bauxite has slightly declined, and the inventory of alumina has continued to accumulate. The social inventory of domestic electrolytic aluminum ingots has increased, and the LME aluminum inventory is likely to continue to accumulate [14][16]. 3.6 Supply and Demand Situation - In the first week of October, the start - up rates of various aluminum processing sectors have been slightly adjusted. The start - up rate of recycled aluminum has risen against the trend, while the start - up rates of other sectors have declined to varying degrees. The "Golden September and Silver October" is lackluster, and the short - term upward space for the start - up rate is restricted [22][23]. 3.7 Futures and Spot Structure - The current futures price structure of SHFE aluminum is weak [27]. 3.8 Spread Structure - The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 this week is about - 2,140 yuan per ton. The current spread between primary aluminum and alloy is at a relatively low level in recent years, and has a moderately strong impact on electrolytic aluminum [34][35]. 3.9 Market Capital Situation - **LME Aluminum**: The net long position has continued to rise slightly. Since June, both the long and short camps have increased their positions, and the overall market is still relatively strong [37]. - **SHFE Electrolytic Aluminum**: The net long position of the main contract has increased slightly compared with before the holiday. The net long position of funds with a financial speculation background has rebounded, while the funds with a background of mid - and downstream enterprises are in a stalemate between long and short. The main funds are slightly bullish, but the market is volatile [39].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The soda ash futures are in a volatile stage. Given that the current fundamentals have not substantially improved, it is expected to continue the volatile pattern in the short - term, and subsequent attention should be paid to inventory reduction. The glass futures are also in a volatile trend. Although the market has rebounded due to policy and pre - holiday factors, the fundamental support is insufficient, and the risk of sentiment decline should be guarded against [6][28]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Soda Ash Futures 3.1.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - The soda ash market in China was narrowly volatile last week with regional price differentiation. Supply increased as some plants resumed production, while downstream demand was stable with mainly rigid procurement. The pre - holiday stockpiling had limited impact on the market. Soda ash futures first declined and then rose. Due to the unchanged fundamentals, it is expected to continue the volatile pattern in the short - term, and subsequent attention should be paid to inventory reduction. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [6]. 3.1.2 Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The soda ash market continued to be narrowly volatile last week with limited price fluctuations and light trading. Supply was abundant, demand was weak, and inventory remained high. The futures market oscillated downward. It was expected to remain weak in the short - term, and attention should be paid to pre - holiday stockpiling. The expected operating range of soda ash 2601 was 1200 - 1350, and it was advisable to wait and see [9]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The domestic soda ash market was narrowly volatile last week with regional price differentiation. Supply increased slightly, demand was stable but not strong enough, and inventory pressure was acceptable. The futures first declined and then rose, but the high inventory restricted the rebound space. It is expected to continue the volatile pattern in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the substantial improvement of fundamentals. The expected operating range of soda ash 2601 is 1200 - 1350 [10]. 3.1.3 Relevant Data Situation - The relevant data include weekly data on China's soda ash开工率,产量,轻质库存,重质库存,基差 (daily), and the production cost of the ammonia - soda process in North China [11][15][17]. - The variety diagnosis shows that the multi - empty flow is - 26.7, indicating that the main force is slightly bearish; the capital energy is - 34.8, indicating a small outflow of main - force funds; and the multi - empty divergence is 81.3, suggesting a relatively high risk of market reversal [20]. 3.2 Glass Futures 3.2.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - The domestic float glass market first stabilized and then rose last week. Policy benefits and pre - holiday rush work drove up prices, leading to increased sales and reduced inventory. However, terminal demand remained weak. Glass futures first declined and then rose, with the short - term trading logic shifting to supply contraction expectations. But the fundamental support is insufficient, and the risk of sentiment decline should be guarded against. The recommended strategy is to hold an empty position and wait and see [28]. 3.2.2 Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The float glass market was narrowly volatile last week, with some regional price increases. Downstream demand was mainly rigid procurement, and the peak - season characteristics were not obvious. Regional inventory performance varied, and overall, there was a strong wait - and - see sentiment. Futures first rose and then fell. It was expected to continue the weak - volatile pattern in the short - term. The expected operating range of glass 2601 was 1150 - 1300, and it was advisable to hold an empty position and wait and see [31]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The float glass spot market first stabilized and then rose last week. Policy and pre - holiday rush work promoted price increases and inventory reduction, but terminal demand was still weak. Futures rebounded sharply due to production - capacity control policies, but the fundamental support is insufficient. The expected operating range of glass 2601 is 1150 - 1300, and it is advisable to hold an empty position and wait and see [32]. 3.2.3 Relevant Data Situation - The relevant data include weekly data on China's float glass产量,开工率, production cost and production profit of the float process using natural gas as fuel,基差 (daily), and期末库存 [35][38][41]. - The variety diagnosis shows that the multi - empty flow is - 78.7, indicating that the main force is relatively bearish; the capital energy is - 62.5, indicating a large outflow of funds; and the multi - empty divergence is 90.2, suggesting a high risk of market reversal [46].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The mid - term trend of the soybean meal futures main contract is in a wide - range oscillatory phase, lacking strong upward momentum but supported by import costs. The soybean oil futures main contract is in an oscillatory consolidation phase, affected by various factors such as inventory, demand, and policies [8][30]. - To avoid the risk of external market fluctuations during the National Day holiday, it is recommended to hold a light or empty position [12][34]. 3. Summary by Directory Soybean Meal Futures Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term trend: The soybean meal main contract is in a wide - range oscillation. In the 38th week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.4275 million tons, with an operating rate of 67.76%. The soybean meal inventory was 1.25 million tons, an increase of 85,600 tons or 7.35% from the previous week. The high inventory may be alleviated by partial holiday shutdowns. Demand is restricted by breeding losses, but pre - holiday stocking demand has warmed up the market. The mid - term trend is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation, and it is necessary to pay attention to Sino - US trade progress and South American weather [8]. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The soybean meal futures price was in a sideways phase, with more bullish funds. M2601 was expected to oscillate between 2900 - 3200 [11]. - This week's strategy suggestion: To avoid the risk of external market fluctuations during the National Day holiday, it is recommended to hold a light or empty position [12]. - Variety diagnosis: The main funds are strongly bearish, with a large inflow of funds and a high risk of market reversal [15]. Relevant Data - The report data comes from Wind, Mysteel, and the Great Wall Futures Trading Consultation Department, including soybean meal weekly production, inventory, apparent consumption, weekly inventory days, basis, and oil - meal ratio [19][23][26]. Soybean Oil Futures Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term trend: The soybean oil main contract is in an oscillatory consolidation phase. In the 38th week, the actual production of 125 oil mills was 461,200 tons, an increase of 12,700 tons from the previous week. The commercial inventory in key regions was 1.2359 million tons, a decrease of 15,300 tons from the previous week. Double - festival stocking has slightly increased trading volume, but slow catering demand recovery restricts提货 volume. High operating rates and sufficient port inventories suppress spot prices. After the exhaustion of Argentina's tax - free quota, market sentiment has recovered. The futures show an oscillatory trend affected by US bio - fuel policies and competing oils. It is necessary to pay attention to import costs, competing oil trends, and macro - policies [30]. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The soybean oil futures price was in a sideways phase, with more bullish funds. Y2601 may continue to oscillate in the short term [33]. - This week's strategy suggestion: To avoid the risk of external market fluctuations during the National Day holiday, it is recommended to hold a light or empty position [34]. Relevant Data - The report data comes from Wind, Mysteel, and the Great Wall Futures Trading Consultation Department, including soybean oil weekly production, inventory, basis, trading volume, soybean weekly arrival volume, inventory, crushing volume, operating rate, port inventory, and Brazilian premium [42][46][52]

Report Overview - Report Name: "Futures Weekly Report on Rebar and Iron Ore" - Report Period: September 29 - 30, 2025 1. Rebar Futures 1.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - Trend Judgment: The main contract of rebar futures is in a consolidation range [7]. - Judgment Logic: Weekly production is 218 million tons, apparent consumption is 196 million tons, major steel mills' inventory is 176 million tons, and social inventory is 722 million tons. The AI intelligent investment consulting product diagnosis report shows it's in a consolidation range [7]. - Strategy Suggestion: Wait for the consolidation stage to complete [7]. 1.2 Product Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: The main contract of rebar futures entered the first week of the upward ladder [10]. - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: Enter the consolidation range according to the AI model. Wait for the mid - term trend to become clear [11]. 1.3 Relevant Data - Data Sources: Wind, Mysteel, and the trading consulting department of Great Wall Futures [15][17][27] 2. Iron Ore Futures 2.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - Trend Judgment: The main contract of iron ore futures is in a sideways consolidation stage [32]. - Judgment Logic: Global shipments last week were 2765 million tons, arrivals at 45 major Chinese ports were 2452 million tons, steel enterprises' inventory was 8991 million tons, and major domestic port inventory was 13846 million tons. The AI intelligent investment consulting product diagnosis shows a sideways mid - term trend [32]. - Strategy Suggestion: Wait for the consolidation stage to complete [32]. 2.2 Product Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: The AI model showed that the mid - term price of iron ore was in a consolidation stage [35]. - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: Wait for the mid - term trend to become clear [35]. 2.3 Relevant Data - Data Sources: Wind, Mysteel, and the trading consulting department of Great Wall Futures [47][55]