Report Overview - Report Title: "Rebar, Iron Ore Futures Weekly Report" [2] - Report Period: September 1 - 5, 2025 [1] Rebar Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Trend Judgment: The main contract of rebar futures is in the first week of the downward channel [7]. - Judgment Logic: Weekly rebar production is 2.2 million tons, apparent consumption is 2.04 million tons, major steel mills' inventory is 1.69 million tons, and social inventory is 6.7 million tons [7]. - Strategy Suggestion: Spot customers can consider implementing a short - hedging strategy step - by - step [7]. 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: The main contract of rebar futures entered the shock consolidation range [10]. - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: The main contract of rebar futures is in the first week of the downward channel [10]. - Spot Enterprise Hedging Suggestion: Spot customers can consider implementing a 70% short - hedging strategy step - by - step [11]. 3. Relevant Data Situation - Data Sources: Wind, Mysteel, and the trading consultation department of Great Wall Futures [15] Iron Ore Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Trend Judgment: The main contract of iron ore futures is in the sideways consolidation stage [33]. - Judgment Logic: Last week, the global shipment volume of iron ore was 3.315 million tons, the arrival volume at 45 major ports in China was 2.393 million tons, steel enterprises' inventory was 9.007 million tons, and the inventory at major domestic ports was 13.763 million tons [33]. - Strategy Suggestion: Wait for the completion of the sideways consolidation stage [33]. 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: The mid - term price center of iron ore showed a gradual upward trend [36]. - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: Be patient in the sideways range and wait for the new mid - term trend to become clear [36]. 3. Relevant Data Situation - Data Sources: Wind, Mysteel, and the trading consultation department of Great Wall Futures [38]

Group 1: Overall Information - Report Period: September 1 - 5, 2025 [1] - Report Subjects: Gold and Silver Futures [2] Group 2: Gold Futures Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is in a sideways phase, possibly at the beginning [7] - Trend Logic: Last week, gold prices fluctuated upward due to the Fed's dovish signals, a weaker US dollar, geopolitical risks, and a weakening labor market [7] - Key Factors: Next week, focus on US non - farm payrolls, Fed officials' speeches, geopolitical situations, and global central bank policies [7] - Strategy Suggestion: It is recommended to wait and see [8] Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy: The gold main contract 2510 was expected to fluctuate, and grid trading was recommended in the 760 - 800 range [11] - This Week's Strategy: The gold main contract 2510 is expected to fluctuate, with resistance at 794 - 803 and support at 766 - 775 [12] Related Data - Data Sources: Wind, Mysteel, Great Wall Futures Trading Consulting Department [19][28] - Data Presented: Shanghai Gold price trends, COMEX gold price trends, SPDR gold ETF holdings, COMEX gold inventories, US 10 - year Treasury yields, US dollar index, US dollar against offshore RMB, gold - silver ratio, Shanghai Gold basis, and gold internal - external price spreads [18][21][23] Group 3: Silver Futures Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: The overall trend of Shanghai Silver futures is steadily rising and is currently at the end of the trend [32] - Trend Logic: Last week, silver prices showed a pattern of "fluctuating and stabilizing, rebounding at the end of the month" due to the Fed's expected rate cut, a weaker US dollar, lower US bond yields, and industrial demand expectations [32] - Key Factors: Next week, focus on US non - farm payrolls, manufacturing PMI, and Fed officials' speeches. Whether the rate - cut expectation can be further strengthened will dominate short - term trends [32] - Strategy Suggestion: It is recommended to wait and see [33] Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy: The silver contract 2510 was expected to fluctuate at a high level, with support at 8500 - 8800 and resistance at 9200 - 9500 [36] - This Week's Strategy: The silver contract 2510 is expected to be strong, with support at 8900 - 9000 and resistance at 9400 - 9500 [37] Related Data - Data Sources: Wind, Mysteel, Great Wall Futures Trading Consulting Department [42][45] - Data Presented: Shanghai Silver price trends, COMEX silver price trends, SLV silver ETF holdings, COMEX silver inventories, Shanghai Silver basis, and silver internal - external price spreads [44][47][49]

Report Overview - This is a weekly report on soybean meal and soybean oil futures from September 1st to September 5th, 2025, covering mid - term market analysis, trading strategies, and relevant data [1][2] 1. Soybean Meal Futures 1.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: The soybean meal main contract is in a wide - range oscillation phase. The current high soybean crushing volume by oil mills ensures stable supply, while downstream feed enterprises purchase cautiously. High US soybean good - quality rates strengthen the supply - abundant pattern. However, supported by import costs and pre - festival stocking demand, and with uncertainties in fourth - quarter soybean arrivals, the futures are expected to continue the wide - range oscillation trend. Attention should be paid to Sino - US trade progress [6] 1.2 Trading Strategies - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The overall trend of soybean meal futures prices was sideways, with a bullish bias in funds. The M2601 contract might be in an oscillatory trend in the short term, with an expected trading range of 3000 - 3250 [10] - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The overall trend of soybean meal futures prices remains sideways, with a bullish bias in funds. The M2601 contract may continue the oscillatory trend in the short term, with an expected trading range of 2980 - 3200 [11] 1.3 Relevant Data - The data sources include Wind, Mysteel, and the Great Wall Futures Trading Consultation Department, covering soybean meal weekly production, inventory, apparent consumption, weekly inventory days, basis, and oil - meal ratio [19][22][24] 2. Soybean Oil Futures 2.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: The soybean oil main contract is in an oscillatory consolidation phase. The current soybean oil production is at a high level year - on - year, and the overall supply - abundant pattern persists. Market sentiment is affected by factors such as Sino - US negotiation uncertainties, Fed interest - rate cut expectations, biodiesel policies, and international crude oil and related oil prices. Overall, soybean oil futures prices are expected to mainly oscillate and consolidate. A wait - and - see approach is recommended [29] 2.2 Trading Strategies - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The overall trend of soybean oil futures prices was in an upward channel, with a bullish bias in funds. The Y2601 contract might be in a high - level oscillatory pattern in the short term [32] - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The overall trend of soybean oil futures prices is in a downward channel, with a strongly bullish bias in funds. The Y2601 contract may maintain an oscillatory consolidation pattern in the short term [32] 2.3 Relevant Data - The data sources include Wind, Mysteel, and the Great Wall Futures Trading Consultation Department, covering soybean oil weekly production, inventory, basis, trading volume, soybean weekly arrivals, inventory, crushing volume, startup rate, port inventory, and Brazilian premium [42][45][47]

Reporting Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report indicates that aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate within a large range, with the price likely to move between 29,500 and 21,300. The lower limit is supported by the Fed's expected interest rate cut in September, domestic anti - involution policies, and the possible invalidation of Trump's tariffs by the US Court of Appeals after mid - October. The upper limit is restricted by the realization of overseas hidden inventories and concerns about the decline in China's export growth in the second half of the year. In the short term, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum is likely to continue to accumulate, and the market will be in a state of wide - range oscillation [5][13]. Summary According to the Directory Mid - line Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate within the range of 29,500 - 21,300. Buying mid - term long positions can be considered when the price is below 20,000 [5]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: For the next week, the support level of Shanghai Aluminum 2510 is seen at 20,600, and the resistance level is between 20,900 - 21,000. It is advisable to wait and see [8]. Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: In early September, aluminum prices may still be relatively strong, and the resistance at 21,000 - 21,300 will test the substantial improvement in demand. The support level of Shanghai Aluminum 2510 for the next week is 20,600, and the resistance level is 20,900 - 21,000 [7]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The support level of Shanghai Aluminum 2510 for the next week is 20,600, and the resistance level is 20,900 - 21,000. It is advisable to wait and see. Spot enterprises are recommended to maintain appropriate inventories [8][9]. Overall View - **Supply - side**: China's bauxite inventory has reached the highest level in the same period, and the supply can basically meet the production needs for the year. The alumina capacity utilization rate is at a high level since 2022. The electrolytic aluminum production is at the average level since 2923, and the production ceiling is controllable. The current import of electrolytic aluminum has a theoretical loss of about 1,300 yuan/ton, and the export growth rate is expected to decline in the second half of the year [10]. - **Demand - side**: The overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises has increased. The operating rate of aluminum profiles, aluminum strips, and aluminum foils is expected to rise, while the growth of primary aluminum alloy is limited. The operating rate of aluminum cables is expected to enter an upward channel, and the orders of some building profiles have increased [12]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots has increased by about 5% compared with last week and is about 23% lower than the same period last year. The inventory of aluminum rods has increased by about 6% compared with last week and is about 15% higher than the same period last year. The LME aluminum inventory is likely to continue to accumulate [12][19]. - **Profit**: The average full - cost of the Chinese alumina industry is about 2,850 yuan/ton, with a profit of about 380 yuan/ton. The average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 17,600 yuan/ton, with a theoretical profit of about 3,100 yuan/ton [13]. - **Market Expectation**: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September is greater than 80%, and there is a trillion - level infrastructure stimulus and anti - involution support in China. The supply of electrolytic aluminum is stable and rising, the demand has peak - season expectations but no substantial improvement, and the inventory pressure is prominent, so the aluminum price will oscillate [13]. Important Industrial Link Price Changes - **Bauxite**: The price of bauxite is expected to remain stable in the near future, with a slight increase in bulk cargo transactions this week [14]. - **Coal**: Due to the approaching major event, the market is in a wait - and - see state, and the procurement demand is postponed to after September [14]. - **Alumina**: The price continues to decline slightly, with oversupply, inventory accumulation, and a bearish fundamental situation [14]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price has stabilized, the market sentiment has strengthened, and the purchasing willingness has increased [15]. Important Industrial Link Inventory Changes - **Domestic**: The inventory of bauxite in domestic ports has increased slightly. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots and aluminum rods has increased, and the inventory of electrolytic aluminum is likely to continue to accumulate in the short term [17][19]. - **Overseas**: The LME aluminum inventory has basically remained flat in the past two weeks, and it is still at a low level since 1990. It is likely to continue to accumulate in the future [19]. Supply - Demand Situation - **Profit**: The profit of the alumina industry is about 380 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit of electrolytic aluminum is about 3,100 yuan/ton. The theoretical import loss of electrolytic aluminum is about 1,300 yuan/ton [21]. - **Operating Rate**: The overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises has increased by 0.7 percentage points to 60.7%. Different sectors have different trends, with some expected to rise and some with limited growth [26]. Futures - Spot Structure The current futures price structure of Shanghai Aluminum remains neutral. Although the inventory has accumulated recently, the near - month contract has a premium over the far - month contract, and the futures side is still relatively resistant to decline [31]. Spread Structure The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 is about - 1,830 yuan/ton this week. The current spread between primary aluminum and alloy is at a relatively high level in recent years and has a neutral impact on electrolytic aluminum [38][39]. Market Capital Situation - **LME Aluminum**: The net long position is stable. Due to the increasing market divergence, the market will be in a wide - range oscillation in the near future [41]. - **SHFE Electrolytic Aluminum**: The net long position of the main contract has been reduced. The market will be in a wide - range oscillation, and the adjustment pressure in the next week is slightly higher [43].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The aluminum market is expected to experience large - range oscillations, with prices likely to be strong in early September. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September is high, and China is about to enter the traditional consumption peak season, with an expected increase in downstream operating rates. Aluminum prices may still be strong in early September, but the resistance at 21,000 - 21,300 will test the substantial improvement of the demand side. The overall macro - environment is positive, but there is still significant pressure on inventory accumulation during the off - season. After the positive sentiment is digested, the aluminum price may face a risk of falling after reaching a high point, and the 21,000 yuan/ton mark remains under pressure [5][8][12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: The market will experience large - range oscillations, and prices are expected to be strong in early September. It is advisable to consider holding medium - term long positions below 20,000 [5]. - **Logic for Trend Judgment**: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September is high, China is about to enter the traditional consumption peak season, and downstream operating rates are expected to rise [5]. 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: Due to Trump's tariff actions, short - term fluctuations may intensify, and it was advisable to wait and see [7]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: Aluminum prices may be strong in early September. The resistance at 21,000 - 21,300 will test the substantial improvement of the demand side. In the next week, the support level for SHFE Aluminum 2510 is seen at 20,600, and the resistance level is at 20,900 - 21,000 [8]. - **Hedging Suggestion for Spot Enterprises**: Maintain an appropriate inventory [9]. 3.3 Overall View - **Bauxite Market**: Mining in Shanxi and Henan is restricted by safety and environmental inspections, while the output in Guizhou has increased significantly. The domestic bauxite output increased month - on - month in July. Guinea's state - owned mining company took over GAC's mining rights, and the supply of imported ore is expected to remain stable. The bauxite inventory in China has reached the highest level in the same period, and the supply can basically meet this year's production needs. However, there is still some political uncertainty in Guinea in September [10]. - **Alumina Market**: As of August 22, China's alumina production capacity was about 112.55 million tons, with an operating capacity of about 96.3 million tons and a capacity utilization rate of about 85.78%, which has been rising since May and is currently at the highest level since 2022 [10]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: According to Steel Union data, China's electrolytic aluminum production capacity is about 45.45 million tons, with an operating capacity of about 44.2 million tons and a capacity utilization rate of about 97%. Under the background of carbon neutrality, the ceiling of China's electrolytic aluminum output is controllable, and the growth rate of new global production capacity has slowed down [10]. - **Import and Export**: The theoretical loss of electrolytic aluminum imports is about 1,300 yuan/ton. Aluminum exports have generally rebounded since March this year and are currently at a relatively high level in recent years. The US expanded the scope of a 50% tariff on aluminum products on August 18, which has limited short - term impact on China, but the export growth rate in the second half of the year is expected to decline compared with the first half [10]. - **Demand**: - **Aluminum Profiles**: The operating rate remained stable at 50.5%. Construction profiles have not improved significantly, while orders for photovoltaic and automotive applications are relatively stable. The market is expected to operate stably in the short term [11]. - **Aluminum Sheet, Strip, and Foil**: The operating rate of leading aluminum sheet and strip enterprises increased by 1 percentage point to 66.0%, and the operating rate of leading aluminum foil enterprises increased by 0.7 percentage points to 70.0%. The orders have improved compared with July, and the operating rates are expected to continue to rise [11]. - **Aluminum Cables and Wires**: The operating rate of leading aluminum cable and wire enterprises increased by 1% to 63.6%. As the power grid construction cycle restarts in September and the peak delivery season approaches, the demand for aluminum cables and wires is increasing, and the operating rate is expected to continue to rise in late August [11]. - **Alloys**: The operating rate of primary aluminum alloys remained stable at 56.6%. Some enterprises' orders increased due to trial restocking for the "Golden September and Silver October" season, but the growth is mainly concentrated in large - scale enterprises. The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum enterprises remained stable at 53.0%, and it is expected to continue to decline due to the rectification of illegal tax rebates [11]. - **Inventory**: - **Electrolytic Aluminum Ingot**: The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots is 595,000 tons, an increase of about 1% from last week and about 26% lower than the same period last year. The supply has changed little, and the inventory is expected to continue to accumulate in the short term [11][17]. - **Aluminum Rod**: The inventory of aluminum rods is 119,000 tons, a decrease of about 12% from last week and about 7% higher than the same period last year. The price has dropped, and downstream enterprises have increased their inventory in anticipation of the peak season [11][17]. - **LME Aluminum**: The LME aluminum inventory has remained basically flat, and it is still at a low level since 1990. Considering the weak manufacturing data in Europe and the US and the US's expansion of aluminum product tariffs, the LME inventory is likely to continue to accumulate [11][17]. - **Profit**: - **Alumina**: The average full - cost of the Chinese alumina industry is about 2,850 yuan/ton, and the profit is about 380 yuan/ton [12][19]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 17,600 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is about 3,000 yuan/ton [12][19]. - **Market Expectation**: The positive domestic and international macro - environment and potential supply risks in electrolytic aluminum keep the aluminum price oscillating strongly. However, there is still significant pressure on inventory accumulation during the off - season. After the positive sentiment is digested, the aluminum price may face a risk of falling after reaching a high point, and the 21,000 yuan/ton mark remains under pressure [12]. - **Personal View**: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September is high, and the overall macro - environment is positive. Trump's tariff actions have affected export expectations, but the short - term impact on China is limited. Aluminum prices may be strong in early September, but the resistance at 21,000 - 21,300 will test the substantial improvement of the demand side [12]. - **Key Concerns**: The magnitude of the Fed's interest rate cut in September, the inventory accumulation of domestic social stocks, and the progress of the Russia - Ukraine cease - fire [12]. 3.4 Important Industry Link Price Changes - The prices of most bauxite varieties remained stable, while the price of alumina in Henan decreased slightly by 0.15%. The price of动力煤 increased by 1.29%, and the price of沪铝主力合约 decreased by 0.67% [13]. 3.5 Important Industry Link Inventory Changes - The port inventory of imported bauxite increased by 2.77% week - on - week. The inventory of alumina increased by 1.52% week - on - week. The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased by 0.85% week - on - week, while the inventory of aluminum rods decreased by 11.85% week - on - week [15]. 3.6 Supply and Demand Situation - The overall operating rate of domestic downstream aluminum processing leading enterprises increased by 0.5 percentage points to 60.0% week - on - week, showing a mild recovery, but the substantial improvement in demand is still limited. Some sectors have shown marginal improvement due to the expectation of the peak season, but the overall terminal demand has not fully recovered [24][25]. 3.7 Futures - Spot Structure - The current SHFE aluminum futures price structure remains neutral. Despite the recent inventory accumulation, the near - month contracts are at a premium to the far - month contracts, and the futures market is still relatively resistant to decline [30]. 3.8 Spread Structure - The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 is about - 1,700 yuan/ton, compared with - 1,640 yuan/ton last week. The current spread between primary aluminum and alloys is at a relatively high level in recent years and has a neutral impact on electrolytic aluminum [37][38]. 3.9 Market Fund Situation - **LME Aluminum**: The net long position of overseas funds continued to rise slightly. Powell's hint of an interest rate cut at the global central bank meeting has further increased the expectation of a rate cut in September. However, the manufacturing data in Europe and the US continue to decline, and the market is expected to fluctuate widely [40]. - **SHFE Electrolytic Aluminum**: The net long position of the main contract has remained stable. The net long position of financial speculative funds has been decreasing slightly since August, while some institutional positions have increased their net long positions. The net short position of funds from mid - and downstream enterprises has been continuously reduced since mid - July, and the net long position increased slightly this week. The market is expected to fluctuate widely, with a slightly greater upward elasticity [43].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Industrial silicon futures are currently in a large - range oscillatory operation. The 2511 contract is expected to operate between 7,700 and 10,000 yuan. The spot price of industrial silicon decreased slightly last week, and the AI - smart investment consultation report shows that the daily price is in a sideways phase, with the main short - position camp having a slight advantage [6][7]. - Lithium carbonate futures are also in a large - range oscillatory operation. The 2511 contract is expected to operate between 65,000 and 100,000 yuan. The spot price of lithium carbonate first rose and then declined last week, and the AI - smart investment consultation report shows that the futures' daily price is in an upward channel, with the main force showing a strong bullish sentiment [31][32]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Industrial Silicon Futures 3.1. Mid - line Market Analysis - The industrial silicon futures are in a large - range oscillatory operation. As of August 22, the price of 421 in Xinjiang was 8,800 yuan/ton, 9,800 yuan/ton in Yunnan, and 10,000 yuan/ton in Sichuan. The AI - smart investment consultation report shows a sideways daily price, and the main short - position camp has a slight advantage. The 2511 contract is expected to operate between 7,700 and 10,000 yuan [6][7]. 3.2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy was to consider grid trading within the range, and this week's strategy remains the same [10]. 3.3. Relevant Data Situation - As of April 19, 2024, the cathode copper inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 300,045 tons, an increase of 322 tons from the previous week, and it is at a relatively high level compared to the past five years. The LME copper inventory was 122,125 tons, with a cancelled - warrant ratio of 25.73%, and it is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [12][16]. Lithium Carbonate Futures 3.1. Mid - line Market Analysis - Lithium carbonate futures are in a large - range oscillatory operation. As of August 22, the market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 80,500 yuan/ton, and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 79,450 yuan/ton. The AI - smart investment consultation report shows an upward daily price channel, and the main force has a strong bullish sentiment. The 2511 contract is expected to operate between 65,000 and 100,000 yuan [31][32]. 3.2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy was to mainly wait and see, and this week's strategy remains the same [35][36]. 3.3. Relevant Data Situation - As of April 19, 2024, the electrolytic aluminum inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 228,537 tons, a decrease of 3,228 tons from the previous week, and it is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years. The LME aluminum inventory was 504,000 tons, with a cancelled - warrant ratio of 66.03%, and it is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [39][41].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For soybean meal futures, the mid - line trend is in a wide - range oscillation. Domestic high - operating rate and high crushing volume, combined with factors such as restricted feed consumption due to pig - farming losses and pre - festival stocking demand, along with international factors like high yield expectations and planting area adjustments of US soybeans, lead to this trend. If the fourth - quarter ship purchases slow down, the center of the soybean meal futures price may gradually rise [7]. - For soybean oil futures, the mid - line trend is also in a wide - range oscillation. High domestic oil - mill operating rates increase production, but weak terminal demand and the upcoming traditional consumption season in the fourth quarter, along with the expected rise in imported soybean costs, contribute to this situation. It is recommended to wait and see [30]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soybean Meal Futures Mid - line Market Analysis - The mid - line trend of the soybean meal main contract is in a wide - range oscillation. In the 33rd week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.339 million tons, with an operating rate of 65.75%, and the soybean meal inventory was 1.0147 million tons, a 1.12% increase from the previous week. Domestic high - operating rates and high crushing volume, restricted feed consumption due to pig - farming losses, pre - festival stocking demand, high yield expectations of US soybeans, and planting area adjustments all affect the price. If the fourth - quarter ship purchases slow down, the center of the soybean meal futures price may gradually rise [7]. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week, the overall trend of the soybean meal futures price was sideways, with a strong bullish bias in funds. The M2601 contract may continue the oscillating and slightly bullish trend in the short term, with an expected operating range of 3000 - 3250. This week, the overall trend of the soybean meal futures price is still sideways, with a relatively bullish bias in funds. The M2601 contract may be in an oscillating trend in the short term, with an expected operating range of 3000 - 3250 [10][11]. Variety Diagnosis - The main force is relatively bullish with a multi - empty flow of 69.7, but the funds are flowing out significantly with a fund energy of - 68.5. The multi - empty divergence is 96.4, indicating a high risk of market reversal [15]. Relevant Data - The data sources include Wind, Mysteel, and the Great Wall Futures Trading Consultation Department. The relevant data involves weekly production, inventory, apparent consumption, weekly inventory days, basis, and oil - meal ratio of soybean meal [19][21][24] Soybean Oil Futures Mid - line Market Analysis - The mid - line trend of the soybean oil main contract is in a wide - range oscillation. In the 33rd week, the actual production of 125 oil mills was 444,400 tons, a 30,700 - ton increase from the previous week, and the commercial inventory in key regions was 1.1427 million tons, a 5000 - ton increase from the previous week. High domestic oil - mill operating rates increase production, but weak terminal demand and the upcoming traditional consumption season in the fourth quarter, along with the expected rise in imported soybean costs, contribute to this situation. It is recommended to wait and see [30]. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week, the overall trend of the soybean oil futures price was in an upward channel, with a slightly bearish bias in funds. The Y2601 contract may continue to be bullish but should be aware of short - term oscillating corrections. This week, the overall trend of the soybean oil futures price is in an upward channel, with a relatively bullish bias in funds. The Y2601 contract may be in a high - level oscillating pattern in the short term [33]. Variety Diagnosis - The main force is relatively bullish with a multi - empty flow of 72.0, and the main funds are flowing out slightly with a fund energy of - 36.1. The multi - empty divergence is 92.3, indicating a high risk of market reversal [36]. Relevant Data - The data sources include Wind, Mysteel, and the Great Wall Futures Trading Consultation Department. The relevant data involves weekly production, inventory, basis, trading volume of soybean oil, as well as weekly arrival volume, inventory, crushing volume, operating rate of soybeans, weekly port inventory, and Brazilian premium [42][45][47]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Gold, Silver Futures Weekly Report [2] - Report Period: August 25 - 29, 2025 [1] Group 2: Gold Futures 2.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is in a sideways phase, possibly at the beginning [7]. - Trend Logic: Last week, the gold price showed a volatile and weak trend, with weekly fluctuations between - 0.36% and 0.32%. It was mainly affected by the repeated expectations of the Fed's interest - rate cuts, the cooling of geopolitical risks suppressing short - term hedging demand, combined with the outflow of ETF funds and the increase in inventory [7]. - Next Week's Focus: Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting, US economic data's impact on interest - rate cut expectations, and new changes in the geopolitical situation [7]. - Mid - term Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [8]. 2.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: The main gold contract 2510 was expected to move in a volatile manner. Grid trading was recommended in the range of 735 - 838 [11]. - This Week's Strategy: The main gold contract 2510 is expected to move in a volatile manner. Grid trading is recommended in the range of 760 - 800 [12]. 2.3 Related Data - Data includes Shanghai Gold and COMEX gold price trends, SPDR gold ETF holdings, COMEX gold inventory, US 10 - year Treasury yield, US dollar index, US dollar against offshore RMB, gold - silver ratio, Shanghai Gold basis, and gold internal - external price difference [19][21][23] Group 3: Silver Futures 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: The overall trend of Shanghai Silver futures is steadily rising, currently at the end of the trend [32]. - Trend Logic: Last week, the silver price showed a "bottom - fishing and rebound" trend. It was mainly affected by the wavering expectations of the Fed's policies, with inventory decline providing bottom support, while weak industrial demand and technical break - outs triggering phased selling pressure [32]. - Next Week's Focus: Policy signals from the Jackson Hole Central Bank Annual Meeting, US non - farm data, and the implementation effect of domestic stimulus policies. The market may continue the volatile and slightly strong pattern [32]. - Mid - term Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [33]. 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: The silver contract 2510 was expected to be in high - level oscillation, with the lower support range at 8500 - 8800 and the upper pressure range at 9200 - 9500 [36]. - This Week's Strategy: The silver contract 2510 is expected to be in high - level oscillation, with the lower support range at 8500 - 8800 and the upper pressure range at 9200 - 9500 [37]. 3.3 Related Data - Data includes Shanghai Silver and COMEX silver price trends, SLV silver ETF holdings, COMEX silver inventory, Shanghai Silver basis, and silver internal - external price difference [45][48][50]

2025.08.25-08.29 螺纹钢、铁矿石 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 螺纹钢期货 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 趋势判断逻辑 螺纹钢周度产量214万吨，表观消费量194万吨，主要钢厂库存174万 吨，社会库存642万吨。长城期货AI智能投询品种诊断报告显示螺纹钢 期货主力资金暂无明显多空倾向。 2 目录 中线行情分析 根据长城期货AI智能大数据量化策略模型综合分析，螺纹钢期货主 力合约进入震荡整理区间。 中线趋势判断 1 观望等待整理阶段完成。 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 螺纹钢期货主力合约进入震荡整理区间。 n 上周策略回顾 n 本周策略建议 根据长城期货AI智能大数据量化策略模型，螺纹钢期货主力 合约进入震荡整理阶段，耐心等待新一轮中线趋势。 n 现货企业套期保值建议 整理阶段密切关注等待新一轮中线趋势明朗。 相关数据情况 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 相关数据情况 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 相关数据情况 本报 ...

2025.08.25-08.29 纯碱、玻璃 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 纯碱期货 趋势判断逻辑 上周国内纯碱市场延续弱势下跌态势，价格承压下行。行业供应持 续宽松，产量维持高位，库存不断累积，而下游需求疲软，企业多 刚需采购，市场低价货源增多，进一步加剧出货压力。华北、东北 及西北等地价格均有不同幅度下调，实际成交议价空间较大。期货 市场同样受供强需弱格局压制，虽偶有政策消息短暂提振，但缺乏 基本面支撑，市场情绪偏空，多空博弈激烈。短期来看，纯碱市场 预计仍将维持震荡偏弱走势。 2 中线策略建议 3 建议观望 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 中线行情分析 纯碱期货处于震荡阶段。 中线趋势判断 1 品种交易策略 n 上周策略回顾 上周国内纯碱市场供需宽松，稳中偏弱。供应高位库存承压， 需求疲软刚需小单为主，交投清淡。核心矛盾为高供应与弱 需求博弈，预计短期维持窄幅震荡偏弱格局，需关注装置动 态及下游补库。纯碱2601运行区间1300-1450。可考虑观望。 n 本周策略建议 上周纯碱市场延续弱势，价格承压下行。供应宽松、库存累 积，叠加下游需求疲软， ...