1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The soda ash futures market is in a volatile stage with a mid - term bearish view, and it is recommended to wait and see. The glass futures market is in a volatile trend, and it is recommended to hold an empty position and wait and see [6][29]. 3. Summary by Directory Soda Ash Futures Mid - line Market Analysis - The soda ash futures are in a volatile phase. Last week, the domestic soda ash market was generally stable but slightly weak. Supply was abundant, downstream demand was flat, and the market lacked upward drivers. It is expected to continue a narrow - range weak consolidation. The futures are under pressure due to high supply and weak demand, and there is no core rebound power. The weak glass market also drags down demand expectations. The mid - term view is to be bearish on rebounds, and it is recommended to wait and see [6]. Variety Trading Strategy - **Last week's strategy review**: The soda ash spot market had a narrow - range shock last week. Supply was sufficient but demand was weak, and prices were under pressure. The futures were volatile and weak, suppressed by high supply, high inventory, and weak demand, and the rebound was weak [9]. - **This week's strategy suggestion**: The soda ash market was stable but slightly weak last week, with some prices slightly loosening. The supply - demand game continued. It is expected to continue a narrow - range weak consolidation. The futures are under pressure to decline, lacking rebound power due to high supply, weak demand, and the weak downstream. The bearish view is maintained [10]. Relevant Data Situation - The relevant data includes China's weekly soda ash开工率,产量,轻质库存,重质库存, daily basis, and the weekly ammonia - soda process production cost in North China [11][14][16]. Glass Futures Mid - line Market Analysis - Overall, the glass is in a volatile trend. Last week, the domestic float glass market had a narrow - range consolidation with regional differences. The overall price fluctuation was limited. The market sentiment was generally weak, and downstream demand showed a seasonal weakening feature. The current market supply - demand pattern is stable supply and weak demand, lacking substantial positive factors. It is expected to maintain a narrow - range shock in the short term. It is recommended to hold an empty position and wait and see [29]. Variety Trading Strategy - **Last week's strategy review**: The float glass market rose and then stabilized last week. Supply contraction initially pushed up quotes, but weak demand restricted the increase, and inventories generally decreased. The glass futures were weak and declined, with cost support and high inventory in a game, lacking positive factors, and maintaining a weak trend [32]. - **This week's strategy suggestion**: The float glass market had a narrow - range consolidation last week with regional differentiation and limited price fluctuations. Demand weakened seasonally, and the overall inventory tended to be stable. The glass futures declined weakly mainly due to weak real - estate demand and will still face inventory pressure in the future. It is expected to have a low - level shock in the short term [33]. Relevant Data Situation - The relevant data includes China's weekly float glass产量,开工率, production cost and production profit of the float process using natural gas as fuel, daily basis, and weekly ending inventory [35][39][42].

Report Summary for the Week of January 26 - 30, 2026 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate strongly, and may experience high - level oscillations before the Spring Festival. The supply - demand situation is weakening, but macro - drivers are strong. Although there are negative feedbacks from downstream due to high prices and a reduced probability of the Fed's interest - rate cut at the end of January, the mid - term supply - demand balance in the electrolytic aluminum market and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East limit the downside space of aluminum prices. The expected operating range of the spot aluminum price in January is 22,000 - 25,000 yuan/ton [5][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Mid - line Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate strongly. The supply - demand situation is weakening, but macro - drivers are strong. Near the Spring Festival in late January, high prices lead to increased negative feedback from downstream, and the reduced probability of the Fed's interest - rate cut at the end of January may disrupt the market. However, considering the mid - term supply - demand balance in the electrolytic aluminum market and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, the aluminum price is expected to fluctuate strongly [5]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Hold long positions and wait for the price to rise [5]. Variety Trading Strategy - **Short - term Strategy**: Short - term long positions are advised to exit and wait and see, while mid - term long positions should be continued to hold. - **This Week's Strategy**: Hold an appropriate amount of spot inventory. - **Hedging Suggestion for Spot Enterprises**: Not elaborated in detail, but the overall strategy is related to holding positions and inventory management [8]. Overall View - **Bauxite Market**: Based on CRU data, the cost of transporting Guinean bauxite to Guinean ports is mainly between $20 - 45 per ton. The expected CIF average price of Guinean bauxite in 2026 is $58 - 68 per ton. Domestic ore supply has no expectation of resumption of mining and production release, and may continue to tighten. The supply of Guinean alumina is growing steadily, and the imported ore price in February is expected to be under pressure [9]. - **Alumina Market**: Affected by environmental control and operating pressure, some alumina enterprises in the north carried out maintenance, and the industry's operating rate declined. The weekly output decreased by 39,000 tons to 1.671 million tons. The overall supply - surplus pattern remains unchanged, and attention should be paid to the implementation of maintenance and the recovery progress of previous maintenance [9]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: In December, the domestic built - in capacity was about 46.1865 million tons, and the operating capacity was about 44.6893 million tons, showing a slight increase. However, the capacity utilization rate decreased, and the aluminum - water ratio was about 71.44%. The daily output of domestic and Indonesian electrolytic aluminum projects is increasing, and the output is expected to continue to rise in the short term. In 2026, the global aluminum supply elasticity is expected to almost disappear [9]. - **Import and Export**: The current theoretical loss of electrolytic aluminum imports is about 2,400 yuan/ton. In 2025, China's cumulative export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 6.134 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.0%. In December, the export volume was 545,000 tons, still at a high level in recent years [9]. - **Inventory**: As of January 22, the aluminum ingot inventory was 743,000 tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons from January 19, the first de - stocking since January; the aluminum bar inventory was 222,000 tons, an increase of 3,500 tons from January 19, showing continuous inventory accumulation. The LME aluminum inventory increased by about 4% compared with last week, and was about 20% lower than the same period last year, still at a low level in recent years [9]. - **Profit**: The average full - cost of the Chinese alumina industry in the past month was about 2,720 yuan/ton, the theoretical spot profit was about - 70 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit of the futures main contract was about 0 yuan/ton. The current average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 16,700 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is about 7,500 yuan/ton, at a historical high level [10]. - **Market Expectation**: Macro - sentiment dominates. The Fed's decision is expected to be neutral to bearish, but the strong performance of gold and silver limits the callback space. The pressure of inventory accumulation and the short - term decline in inventory create a game, and the futures price is expected to rise first and then fall [10]. - **Key Concerns**: Changes in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation in January; the evolution of the geopolitical situation between the US and Iran; whether the bauxite price drops unexpectedly [10]. Important Industry Link Price Changes - Most prices of bauxite, alumina, and related raw materials have changed. For example, the price of Guinean bauxite SI2 - 3% decreased by 1.59% week - on - week, and the price of Henan - grade alumina decreased by 0.29% week - on - week. The price of domestic electrolytic aluminum production cost decreased by 0.21% week - on - week, while the closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract increased by 1.53% week - on - week [11]. - Imported aluminum ore is still under pressure, coal prices have declined, and alumina prices have stabilized, but the bearish atmosphere is still strong [11]. Supply - demand Situation - The profit situation of important links in the domestic aluminum industry is as follows: the alumina industry has a theoretical spot loss of about 70 yuan/ton and a theoretical import loss of about 50 yuan/ton; the electrolytic aluminum production cost is about 16,700 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is about 7,500 yuan/ton, with a theoretical import loss of about 2,050 yuan/ton [14]. Futures - spot Structure - The current Shanghai Aluminum futures show a contango structure of higher prices in the far - term and lower prices in the near - term. The pattern of "increased supply arrivals + high aluminum prices suppressing consumption" is obvious. The current price is mainly guided by the macro and expectations, and the spot side is a drag [21]. Spread Structure - The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 this week is about - 1,750 yuan/ton, compared with - 1,790 yuan/ton before the festival. The current spread between primary aluminum and alloy is at the mid - axis level in recent years, and has a neutral impact on electrolytic aluminum [28][29]. Market Fund Situation - **LME Aluminum**: The latest net long position of funds has continued to increase slightly. Since June 2025, there has been an overall increase in long positions and a decrease in short positions. Overseas funds are still dominated by long positions, but the long floating - profit positions are relatively heavy, and high - level repeated market conditions are likely to occur [31]. - **SHFE Electrolytic Aluminum**: The net short position of the main force first decreased and then increased this week, remaining stable compared with last week. Both the long and short camps have increased their positions. The net short position of institutional positions mainly for speculation remains stable, and the net long position of funds from the background of mid - downstream enterprises has continued to decrease slightly. The main funds are still cautious about the short - term market, and the short - term may be in high - level consolidation [34].

Report Overview - Report Title: Gold, Silver Futures Weekly Report [2] - Report Period: January 26 - 30, 2026 [1] 1. Gold Futures 1.1 Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 1.2 Core View - The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is in a strong upward phase, possibly at the end of the trend. Geopolitical risks and central bank gold purchases provide long - term support, but short - term risks of high - level corrections exist [7]. - It is recommended to wait and see in the medium term [8]. 1.3 Summary by Directory 1.3.1 Medium - term Market Analysis - Trend: The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is strongly rising, possibly at the end of the trend [7]. - Driving Factors: Last week's strong rise was driven by geopolitical conflicts, central bank gold purchases, a weak dollar, and interest - rate cut expectations [7]. - Support: Geopolitical risks and central bank gold purchases provide long - term support [7]. - Risks: Short - term risks include overbought technical indicators and policy uncertainties [7]. - Focus: Future attention should be on the Fed's policy path and global macroeconomic data [7]. - Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [8]. 1.3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: For the Shanghai Gold contract 2604, it was recommended to be cautiously bullish in the short term, with a resistance level of 1045 - 1050 yuan/gram and a support level of 1020 - 1025 yuan/gram. It was advised to buy on dips and control positions due to high - level volatility [10]. - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: For the Shanghai Gold contract 2604, it is recommended to be cautiously bullish in the short term, with a support level of 1085 - 1095 yuan/gram. It is advised to buy on dips and control positions due to high - level volatility [11]. - Market Conditions: The daily line is in a strong upward phase, at a sensitive position in the head. There is a possibility of trend reversal. The main force shows a strong bullish sentiment, and there is a certain risk of a market turn [12]. 1.3.3 Relevant Data Situation - Data includes the price trends of Shanghai Gold and COMEX gold, SPDR gold ETF holdings, COMEX gold inventory, US 10 - year Treasury yields, the US dollar index, the US dollar against the offshore RMB, the gold - silver ratio, Shanghai Gold basis, and the gold price difference between domestic and foreign markets [18][21][23][25][28] 2. Silver Futures 2.1 Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2.2 Core View - The overall trend of Shanghai Silver futures is in a strong upward phase, currently at the end of the trend. Geopolitical risks, industrial supply - demand gaps, and market funds drive the price up. In the long - term, the price center has the basis to move up, but short - term correction risks exist [32]. - It is recommended to wait and see in the medium term [32]. 1.3 Summary by Directory 2.3.1 Medium - term Market Analysis - Trend: The overall trend of Shanghai Silver futures is strongly rising, currently at the end of the trend [32]. - Driving Factors: Last week's price increase was driven by geopolitical risks, industrial supply - demand gaps, and market funds [32]. - Support: In the long - term, the price center has the basis to move up due to the growth of green industry demand, continuous supply - demand gaps, and asset allocation diversification [32]. - Risks: Short - term risks include overbought technical indicators, ETF reductions, and policy uncertainties [32]. - Focus: Future attention should be on the Fed's policy and global manufacturing PMI [32]. - Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [32]. 2.3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: The silver contract 2604 was trading at a high level, with a resistance level of 23,200 - 23,700 yuan and a support level of 21,000 - 21,500 yuan/kg. It was advised to buy on dips and control positions due to high - level volatility [35]. - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: The silver contract 2604 is trading at a high level, with a support level of 22,500 - 23,000 yuan/kg. It is advised to buy on dips and control positions due to high - level volatility [36]. - Market Conditions: The daily line is in a strong upward phase, possibly near the end of the trend. The main force shows a strong bullish sentiment, with large capital inflows and increased attention. The external market had a significant pre - opening increase [37]. 2.3.3 Relevant Data Situation - Data includes the price trends of Shanghai Silver and COMEX silver, SLV silver ETF holdings, COMEX silver inventory, Shanghai Silver basis, and the silver price difference between domestic and foreign markets [43][46][48]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a weekly report on rebar and iron ore futures from January 26th to January 30th, 2026 [1][2] Group 2: Rebar Futures Analysis 2.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - The main contract of rebar futures is in a sideways consolidation range of 2882 - 3330. The weekly output is 2 million tons, the apparent consumption is 1.85 million tons, the inventory of major steel mills is 1.48 million tons, and the social inventory is 4.88 million tons. The market attention has slightly declined. A grid trading strategy is recommended with an antenna of 3330, a ground line of 2882, a grid spacing of 32, and 14 grid numbers [7] 2.2 Trading Strategy - Last week, the main contract of rebar futures entered an oscillatory consolidation range. This week, a large - grid trading strategy can be considered. For spot enterprises, it is recommended to wait and see until a new mid - term trend becomes clear [10][11][12] 2.3 Related Data - The data sources of the report are Wind, Mysteel, and the trading consultation department of Great Wall Futures [15][20][28] Group 3: Iron Ore Futures Analysis 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - The main contract of iron ore futures is in the fourth week of an oscillatory recovery phase. The global shipment volume last week was 29.29 million tons, the arrival volume at 45 major Chinese ports was 26.59 million tons, the inventory of steel enterprises was 93.88 million tons, and the inventory at domestic major ports was 167.66 million tons. The mid - term trend is in a red ladder channel. Steel production enterprises can consider a long - hedging strategy [34] 3.2 Trading Strategy - Last week, the mid - term price of iron ore was in the third week of the red ladder channel. This week, steel production and downstream demand enterprises can consider implementing a long - hedging strategy in steps at a 30% ratio [37] 3.3 Related Data - The data sources of the report are Wind, Mysteel, and the trading consultation department of Great Wall Futures [50]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is in a strong upward phase, possibly at the end of the trend. The overall trend of Shanghai Silver futures is also in a strong upward phase and currently at the end of the trend. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach for both gold and silver futures [7][35] 3. Summary According to the Directory Gold Futures 3.1.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - The Shanghai Gold futures are in a strong upward trend, possibly at the end. Last week, gold oscillated upwards under multiple positive factors. Geopolitical risks and the strengthening expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut were the core driving forces, and continuous gold purchases by global central banks provided long - term support. However, attention should be paid to the possible delay of the interest rate cut rhythm due to US inflation data and the risk of the extinction of the safe - haven premium caused by the easing of the geopolitical situation. It is recommended to wait and see [7] 3.1.2 Variety Trading Strategy - **Last week's strategy review**: For the Shanghai Gold contract 2604, it was short - term cautiously bullish, with the upper pressure level at 980 - 1000 yuan/gram and the lower support level at 950 - 970 yuan/gram. It was recommended to buy on dips and control the position due to large short - term fluctuations [10] - **This week's strategy recommendation**: For the Shanghai Gold contract 2604, it is short - term cautiously bullish, with the upper pressure level at 1011 - 1016 yuan/gram and the lower support level at 1000 - 1005 yuan/gram. It is recommended to buy on dips and control the position due to large short - term fluctuations at high levels [11] 3.1.3 Relevant Data Situation - The report presents the trends of Shanghai Gold and COMEX gold prices, SPDR gold ETF holdings, COMEX gold inventory, US 10 - year Treasury bond yield, US dollar index, US dollar against offshore RMB, gold - silver ratio, Shanghai Gold basis, and gold internal - external price difference through charts [20][23][26] Silver Futures 3.2.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - The Shanghai Silver futures are in a strong upward trend and currently at the end. Last week, silver closed higher in a volatile "roller - coaster" market. It was pushed up by geopolitical risks and interest rate cut expectations at the beginning of the week, then sharply corrected due to the significant reduction of the silver weight in the Bloomberg Commodity Index, and finally stabilized and rebounded. The market is characterized by high volatility due to the intense game between long and short factors. Attention should be paid to the impact of US CPI data on the interest rate cut path and the liquidity recovery after the index rebalancing. It is recommended to wait and see [35] 3.2.2 Variety Trading Strategy - **Last week's strategy review**: The silver contract 2604 was operating at a high level, with the upper pressure level at 17,800 - 18,000 yuan and the lower support level at 16,800 - 17,200 yuan/kg. It was recommended to buy on dips and control the position due to increased short - term fluctuations [38] - **This week's strategy recommendation**: The silver contract 2604 is operating at a high level, with the upper pressure level at 18,200 - 18,700 yuan and the lower support level at 19,000 - 19,500 yuan/kg. It is recommended to buy on dips and control the position due to increased short - term fluctuations at high levels [39] 3.2.3 Relevant Data Situation - The report shows the trends of Shanghai Silver and COMEX silver prices, SLV silver ETF holdings, COMEX silver inventory, Shanghai Silver basis, and silver internal - external price difference through charts [46][49][51]

Report Summary for Industrial Silicon and Lithium Carbonate Futures 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Industrial Silicon Futures**: Currently in a state of oscillatory movement. With stable spot prices last week, the AI - intelligent investment consultation report shows the daily price in a sideways phase, and the main funds have a strong bullish sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see [8][9]. - **Lithium Carbonate Futures**: Currently on an upward trend. The spot price increased last week, the AI - intelligent investment consultation report shows the futures in a strong upward phase, and the main funds have an obvious bullish attitude. It is recommended to buy on dips [34][35]. 3. Summary by Directory Industrial Silicon Futures - **Mid - term Market Analysis** - **Trend Judgment**: Industrial silicon futures are in an oscillatory state. As of January 9, the 421 price in Xinjiang was 9,050 yuan/ton, 9,900 yuan/ton in Yunnan, and 10,000 yuan/ton in Sichuan. The daily price is in a sideways phase, and the main funds are bullish [8]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait and see due to the oscillatory movement [9]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The 2605 contract oscillated in the range of 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton. - **This Week's Strategy Recommendation**: The main contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton [12]. - **Related Data Situation** - As of April 19, 2024, the SHFE cathode copper inventory was 300,045 tons, an increase of 322 tons from the previous week, and it is at a relatively high level compared to the past five - year seasonality [14]. - As of April 19, 2024, the LME copper inventory was 122,125 tons, with a cancelled warrant ratio of 25.73%, and it is at a relatively low level compared to the past five - year seasonality [18]. Lithium Carbonate Futures - **Mid - term Market Analysis** - **Trend Judgment**: Lithium carbonate futures are on an upward trend. As of January 9, the market price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 136,300 yuan/ton, and that of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 139,100 yuan/ton. The daily futures price is in a strong upward phase, and the main funds are bullish [34][35]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy on dips as the bottom is rising [35]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The main contract should focus on the support in the range of 100,000 - 105,000 yuan. - **This Week's Strategy Recommendation**: The main contract should focus on the support in the range of 116,000 - 118,000 yuan [38][39]. - **Related Data Situation** - As of April 19, 2024, the SHFE electrolytic aluminum inventory was 228,537 tons, a decrease of 3,228 tons from the previous week, and it is at a relatively low level compared to the past five - year seasonality [42]. - As of April 19, 2024, the LME aluminum inventory was 504,000 tons, with a cancelled warrant ratio of 66.03%, and it is at a relatively low level compared to the past five - year seasonality [47].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a weekly report on soybean meal and soybean oil futures from January 12 - 16, 2026 [1][2] Group 2: Soybean Meal Futures Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term trend: The soybean meal futures are in a volatile stage. The global soybean supply is generally abundant. Domestic port soybean and oil - mill soybean meal inventories are high, and pig farming is continuously loss - making, suppressing feed demand and prices. However, the decline in domestic oil - mill operating rates, suspension of imported soybean auctions, and local shutdown expectations have caused concerns about short - term supply, and pre - Spring Festival stocking expectations are rising, providing support for the market. It is expected that the soybean meal futures price will maintain a volatile pattern. Key factors to watch include inventory depletion progress, South American weather, and arrival schedules [6] Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The soybean meal futures price was in a sideways trend, with bearish sentiment in terms of funds. The M2605 contract was expected to be in a weak - volatile stage in the short term, with an expected trading range of 2700 - 2800 [9] - This week's strategy advice: The soybean meal futures price is in a sideways trend, with bearish sentiment in terms of funds. The M2605 contract is expected to be in a weak - volatile stage in the short term, with an expected trading range of 2730 - 2850 [10] Relevant Data - Data includes soybean meal weekly production, weekly inventory, apparent consumption, weekly inventory days, basis, and oil - meal ratio. Data sources are Wind, Mysteel, and Great Wall Futures Trading Consultation Department [19][23][26] Group 3: Soybean Oil Futures Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term trend: The soybean oil futures are in a wide - range volatile stage. The global soybean supply is abundant, and the South American harvest is suppressing costs. Domestic soybean oil inventories are higher year - on - year, and pre - festival stocking demand is weak. However, due to delayed soybean arrivals and slower crushing rhythms, domestic oil mills have a strong willingness to hold prices, and there is rigid demand on the demand side. Under the game of long and short forces, the soybean oil futures price is expected to be in a wide - range volatile stage. Key factors to watch are domestic procurement rhythm changes, US bio - diesel progress, and South American weather [30] Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The soybean oil futures price was in a sideways trend, with bullish sentiment in terms of funds. The Y2605 contract was expected to continue the volatile trend in the short term. - This week's strategy advice: The soybean oil futures price is in an upward trend, with bullish sentiment in terms of funds. The Y2605 contract is expected to be in a volatile - bullish stage in the short term [33] Relevant Data - Data includes soybean oil weekly production, weekly inventory, basis, trading volume, soybean weekly arrivals, weekly inventory, weekly crushing volume, weekly operating rate, weekly port inventory, and Brazilian premium. Data sources are Wind, Mysteel, and Great Wall Futures Trading Consultation Department [42][47][50]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes the mid - line market trends, trading strategies, and relevant data of rebar and iron ore futures. For rebar futures, the main contract is in a sideways consolidation range, and for iron ore futures, the main contract is in the second week of the red ladder channel [7][31] 3. Summary According to the Directory Rebar Futures Mid - line Market Analysis - The main contract of rebar futures operates in the sideways consolidation range of 2882 - 3330. The weekly output is 187000 tons, the apparent consumption is 203000 tons, the inventory of major steel mills is 1.36 million tons, and the social inventory is 4.32 million tons. The market attention has slightly decreased recently. A grid trading strategy can be considered during the consolidation stage, with an antenna of 3330, a ground line of 2882, a grid spacing of 32, and 14 grids [7] Variety Trading Strategy - Last week, the main contract of rebar futures entered the shock consolidation range. This week, according to the AI intelligent big - data quantitative strategy model, it has entered the sideways consolidation range, and a large - grid trading strategy can be considered. For spot enterprises, it is recommended to wait and see until a new mid - line trend becomes clear [10][11][12] Relevant Data Situation - The data sources of the report are Wind, Mysteel, and the trading consulting department of Great Wall Futures [17] Iron Ore Futures Mid - line Market Analysis - The main contract of iron ore futures is in the second week of the red ladder channel. In terms of supply, the global shipment volume last week was 36.72 million tons, the arrival volume at 45 major ports in China was 26.05 million tons, the inventory of steel enterprises was 89.41 million tons, and the inventory at domestic major ports was 159.76 million tons. Steel production enterprises can consider implementing a long - hedging strategy [31] Variety Trading Strategy - Last week, the mid - line price of iron ore was in the first week of the red ladder channel. This week, steel production and downstream demand enterprises can consider implementing a 35% long - hedging strategy step by step [34] Relevant Data Situation - The data sources of the report are Wind, Mysteel, and the trading consulting department of Great Wall Futures [37]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The soda ash futures market is in a volatile phase, with a weak supply - demand balance and limited upward momentum in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [6]. - The glass futures market shows a narrow - range consolidation trend. Although supply contraction provides some support, weak demand and high inventory restrict upward movement [31]. 3. Summary by Directory Soda Ash Futures - **Mid - term Market Analysis** - The soda ash futures market is in a volatile stage. The domestic soda ash market declined first and then stabilized last week, with overall lower spot prices and weak trading. Supply is stable and rising, while demand from downstream industries is weakening, leading to inventory accumulation. The futures market rebounded in the second half of the week due to external factors, but the supply - demand imbalance persists, and short - term volatility is expected. It is advisable to wait and see [6]. - **Trading Strategies** - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The domestic soda ash futures prices rebounded from a low level last week, while the spot prices remained stable. Industry inventory decreased compared to the previous week, especially for heavy soda ash. The current supply - demand pattern is still loose, and downstream procurement is cautious. Attention should be paid to new capacity launches and pre - holiday restocking [9]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The soda ash market was generally weak and volatile last week, with lower spot prices. Supply increased while downstream demand was weak, and enterprises faced significant inventory pressure. Although the futures market rose after a decline, the weak fundamentals limited the rebound space [10]. - **Related Data** - The report includes data on soda ash开工率,产量,轻质和重质库存,基差, and ammonia - soda production costs in North China [11][15][18]. Glass Futures - **Mid - term Market Analysis** - The glass market is in a narrow - range consolidation trend. The domestic float glass market was stable last week, with slight price increases in some regions. Supply decreased slightly due to cold repairs, but terminal demand weakened seasonally. Inventory performance varied by region. Overall, supply contraction provided local support, but weak demand restricted upward movement. It is recommended to hold an empty position and wait and see [31]. - **Trading Strategies** - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The float glass market was generally stable last week, but the supply - demand contradiction was still prominent. Although daily production decreased to a multi - year low due to cold repairs, weak demand led to continuous inventory accumulation, and losses in the industry deepened. The market is expected to remain weak in the short term, and attention should be paid to pre - holiday restocking and cold - repair implementation progress [34]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: Some regions of the domestic float glass market saw slight price increases last week, but downstream demand weakened seasonally. Enterprises promoted inventory reduction through discounts, and the market was mainly in a narrow - range consolidation. The glass futures market was driven by supply contraction expectations and cost support, but weak demand and high inventory restricted upward movement. Attention should be paid to inventory reduction [35]. - **Related Data** - The report covers data on float glass产量,开工率, production costs and gross profits using natural gas as fuel,基差, and期末库存 [37][41][45].

Report Overview - Report Title: "Electrolytic Aluminum Futures Weekly Report (January 12 - 16, 2026)" - Report Focus: Analysis of the electrolytic aluminum market, including price trends, supply - demand dynamics, inventory changes, and market sentiment 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided 2. Report's Core View - The electrolytic aluminum market will experience a moderately strong and high - level oscillation in January 2026. The price may rise first and then fall due to the weakening supply - demand fundamentals and strong macro - drivers. The expected price range for spot aluminum in January is 22,000 - 25,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to hold long positions and wait for price increases in the medium - term, and short - term long positions should exit and wait and see. For spot enterprises, it is recommended to hold an appropriate amount of spot inventory [5][6][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: The market will be moderately strong and may experience high - level oscillations in January. The price may rise first and then fall because the supply - demand situation is weakening while macro - drivers are strong [5] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions and wait for price increases [6] 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: Short - term long positions were advised to exit and wait and see, and medium - term long positions were recommended to be held - **This Week's Strategy Recommendation**: Hold an appropriate amount of spot inventory [9] 3.3 Overall View 3.3.1 Bauxite Market - Guinea bauxite transportation cost to the port is 20 - 45 dollars/ton. The expected CIF average price in 2026 is 58 - 68 dollars/ton. Domestic ore supply may tighten further, and imported ore supply is expected to increase [10] 3.3.2 Alumina Market - As of January 9, domestic alumina's installed capacity is about 1.1255 billion tons, operating capacity is about 95.90 million tons, and the utilization rate is about 85.74%. Newly added domestic capacity in 2026 is about 14.40 million tons/year, mainly concentrated in the first half of the year. Overseas newly added capacity may be limited. In January, alumina production cuts may increase [10] 3.3.3 Electrolytic Aluminum Production - In December, domestic installed capacity was about 46.19 million tons, operating capacity was about 44.69 million tons, and the aluminum - water ratio was about 71.44%. In 2026, global aluminum supply elasticity is expected to disappear [10] 3.3.4 Import and Export - The theoretical import loss of electrolytic aluminum is about 2,300 yuan/ton. In November 2025, China exported 570,000 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, a year - on - year decrease of 14.8%. The EU's CBAM implementation may increase export costs in the short term [10] 3.3.5 Inventory - Electrolytic aluminum ingot social inventory is 718,000 tons, up about 13% from last week and about 62% from the same period last year. Aluminum rod inventory is 174,900 tons, up about 25% from last week and about 30% from the same period last year. LME aluminum inventory continues to decline slightly [11] 3.3.6 Profitability - The average full - cost of the Chinese alumina industry in the past month is about 2,720 yuan/ton, the spot theoretical profit is about - 40 yuan/ton, and the futures main - contract theoretical profit is about 100 yuan/ton. The average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 16,800 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is about 7,000 yuan/ton [11] 3.3.7 Market Expectation - The market will experience high - level oscillations due to the game between macro - factors and fundamentals. The price may rise first and then fall in January. The expected price range for spot aluminum is 22,000 - 25,000 yuan/ton [11] 3.4 Important Industry Link Price Changes - Bauxite prices continue to decline. Coal prices rebound from the low level and may continue to oscillate. Alumina spot prices remain stable, and the market is pessimistic overall [12] 3.5 Important Industry Link Inventory Changes - Bauxite port inventory decreases, alumina inventory increases. Domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories increase, while LME aluminum inventory decreases [13][14][16] 3.6 Supply - Demand Situation 3.6.1 Profitability of Domestic Aluminum Industry Links - Alumina has a theoretical spot loss of about 30 yuan/ton and a futures main - contract profit of about 100 yuan/ton. The theoretical import profit is about - 50 yuan/ton. Electrolytic aluminum has a production cost of about 16,800 yuan/ton and a theoretical profit of about 7,000 yuan/ton. The theoretical import loss is about 2,300 yuan/ton [19] 3.6.2 Downstream开工概况 - The weekly开工 rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increases by 0.2 percentage points to 60.1%. High aluminum prices suppress downstream consumption and开工 rate. It is expected that the开工 rate will maintain a weak oscillation in the short term [25][26] 3.7 Shanghai Aluminum Futures Price Curve - The current Shanghai aluminum futures show a contango structure. The market is characterized by "increased supply arrivals, weak demand digestion, industrial structure adjustment, and high - price suppression of consumption". The price is mainly macro - oriented, and the spot market has a drag effect [29] 3.8 Spread Structure - The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 is about - 1,450 yuan/ton. The current spread between primary aluminum and alloy is at a relatively high level in recent years, which has a drag effect on electrolytic aluminum [34][35] 3.9 Market Fund Situation - **LME Aluminum**: The latest fund net long position continues to increase slightly. Overseas funds are dominated by bulls, but there may be high - level fluctuations due to heavy floating - profit positions [37] - **SHFE Electrolytic Aluminum**: The main - force net short position increases. Institutional speculative net short positions increase, while industrial - client net long positions increase significantly. Main - force funds are cautious about the recent price increase [40]