Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Bean Meal Futures**: The main contract of bean meal futures is in a wide - range oscillation phase. With ample domestic soybean supply, high oil - mill operation rates, but limited terminal demand, and international factors like strong US soybean harvest expectations and export pressure, along with uncertainties in Sino - US trade policies and rising Brazilian soybean premiums, the bean meal futures are expected to continue the wide - range oscillation. It is recommended to wait and see [6]. - **Soybean Oil Futures**: The main contract of soybean oil futures is also in a wide - range oscillation. High soybean arrivals support high oil - mill operation rates, and although the inventory has slightly decreased, it remains at a high level with slow terminal consumption recovery. International factors such as crude oil price fluctuations, uncertainties in Sino - US tariff policies, and biodiesel policy expectations affect the price. It is advised to wait and see [30]. 3. Summary by Directory Bean Meal Futures - **Mid - term Market Analysis** - **Trend Judgment**: The main bean meal contract is in a wide - range oscillation. In the 30th week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.2389 million tons, with an operation rate of 62.94%. The bean meal inventory was 1.0431 million tons, an increase of 44,700 tons or 4.48% from the previous week. Domestic soybean supply is abundant, but terminal demand is limited. Internationally, US soybean prices are under pressure, while Sino - US trade uncertainties and rising Brazilian soybean premiums support domestic bean meal costs [6]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: It is recommended to wait and see [6]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The overall trend of bean meal futures prices was sideways, with slightly more long - side funds. The M2509 contract was expected to oscillate in the range of 2920 - 3150 in the short term [9]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The overall trend of bean meal futures prices is sideways, with more short - side funds. The M2509 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 2920 - 3150 in the short term [10]. - **Related Data** - The report provides data on bean meal weekly production, weekly inventory, apparent consumption, weekly inventory days, basis, and oil - meal ratio, with data sources from Wind, Mysteel, and the trading consultation department of Great Wall Futures [19][21][25]. Soybean Oil Futures - **Mid - term Market Analysis** - **Trend Judgment**: The main soybean oil contract is in a wide - range oscillation. In the 30th week, the actual soybean oil production of 125 oil mills was 425,400 tons, a decrease of 12,600 tons from the previous week. The commercial inventory of soybean oil in key national regions was 1.0881 million tons, a decrease of 3700 tons from the previous week. High soybean arrivals support high oil - mill operation rates, and the supply - strong and demand - weak situation continues. International factors affect the price [30]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: It is recommended to wait and see [30]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The overall trend of soybean oil futures prices was sideways, with strongly short - side funds. The Y2509 contract was expected to oscillate widely in the range of 7950 - 8280 in the short term [33]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The overall trend of soybean oil futures prices is in an upward channel, with strongly long - side funds. The Y2509 contract is expected to run strongly in the range of 8000 - 8400 in the short term [33]. - **Related Data** - The report provides data on soybean oil weekly production, weekly inventory, basis, trading volume, soybean weekly arrivals, weekly inventory, weekly crushing volume, weekly operation rate, weekly port inventory, and Brazilian premium, with data sources from Wind, Mysteel, and the trading consultation department of Great Wall Futures [44][46][50][54][57].

2025.08.04-08.08 螺纹钢、铁矿石 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 螺纹钢期货 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 中线行情分析 根据长城期货AI智能大数据量化策略模型综合分析，螺纹钢期货主 力合约进入震荡整理区间。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 螺纹钢周度产量213万吨，表观消费量218万吨，主要钢厂库存166万 吨，社会库存576万吨。长城期货AI智能投询品种诊断报告显示螺纹钢 期货价格日线级别处于下行通道中，资金面略偏空方。 2 观望等待整理阶段完成。 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 n 上周策略回顾 螺纹钢期货主力合约进入红色量能阶梯区域第五周。 n 本周策略建议 根据长城期货AI智能大数据量化策略模型，螺纹钢期货主力 合约进入震荡整理阶段，耐心等待新一轮中线趋势。 n 现货企业套期保值建议 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 相关数据情况 耐心等待整理阶段完成。 相关数据情况 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 相关数据情况 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Industrial silicon futures are currently in a wide - range oscillation. The 2509 contract is expected to trade between 7,800 and 10,000 yuan. [6][7] - Lithium carbonate futures are also in a wide - range oscillation. The 2509 contract is expected to trade between 63,000 and 80,000 yuan. [31][32] 3. Summary According to the Catalog Industrial Silicon Futures 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - Industrial silicon futures are in a wide - range oscillation. Last week, spot prices showed mixed movements. As of August 1, the price of 421 in Xinjiang was 9,300 yuan/ton, in Yunnan was 10,300 yuan/ton, and in Sichuan was 10,100 yuan/ton. The AI intelligent investment consultation report shows that the daily price is in a downward channel, and there is no obvious long - or short - bias among the main players. The 2509 contract is expected to trade between 7,800 and 10,000 yuan. [6][7] 3.2 Variety Trading Strategies - Last week's strategy: Consider buying in small quantities on dips during the stabilization and recovery of industrial silicon prices. [10] - This week's strategy: Consider grid trading within the range. [11] 3.3 Relevant Data - As of April 19, 2024, the SHFE cathode copper inventory was 300,045 tons, an increase of 322 tons from the previous week, and it is at a relatively high level compared to the past five years. [13] - As of April 19, 2024, the LME copper inventory was 122,125 tons, with a cancelled warrant ratio of 25.73%. It is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years. [17] Lithium Carbonate Futures 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - Lithium carbonate futures are in a wide - range oscillation. Last week, spot prices declined. As of August 1, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 69,000 yuan/ton, and that of industrial - grade was 68,300 yuan/ton. The AI variety diagnosis report shows that the daily price is in an upward channel, and the main players show a strong bullish sentiment. The 2509 contract is expected to trade between 63,000 and 80,000 yuan. [31][32] 3.2 Variety Trading Strategies - Last week's strategy: Consider buying in small quantities on dips during the stabilization and recovery of lithium carbonate prices. [35] - This week's strategy: Consider buying in small quantities when the price of lithium carbonate retraces to the 63,000 - 65,000 yuan range. [36] 3.3 Relevant Data - As of April 19, 2024, the SHFE electrolytic aluminum inventory was 228,537 tons, a decrease of 3,228 tons from the previous week, and it is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years. [39] - As of April 19, 2024, the LME aluminum inventory was 504,000 tons, with a cancelled warrant ratio of 66.03%. It is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years. [41]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The aluminum market is expected to experience large - range oscillations, with prices likely to be weak first and then strong in August. The price of aluminum ore is expected to remain stable in the short - term, and may turn stronger in the fourth quarter if certain conditions are met. The supply of electrolytic aluminum is constrained by the capacity ceiling, and the demand in the downstream industry is in a mixed situation. The market is in a state of intense long - short game in the short - term, but the supply - demand situation in August is relatively optimistic [5][11][14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: The short - term lack of new stimulus policies, a decline in investors' risk appetite, and the withdrawal of funds from the industrial products sector have narrowed the volatility of aluminum prices. With inventory accumulation and the consumption off - season as negative factors, the short - term price is under pressure. However, August is the transition period between the off - season and peak season, and with the decline of the US manufacturing index and the expectation of interest rate cuts, as well as domestic support policies, the price may be weak first and then strong. It is advisable to consider mid - line long positions below 2000 yuan [5]. 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The price was expected to enter a wide - range oscillation stage, with the Shanghai Aluminum 2509 contract seen in the range of 20200 - 20900, and it was recommended to wait and see [8]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The price may be weak first and then strong in August. In the coming week, the Shanghai Aluminum 2509 contract is expected to be in the range of 20300 - 20900, and short - term trading is appropriate for now [9]. - **Suggestion for Spot Enterprises' Hedging**: Spot enterprises can consider appropriately allocating virtual inventory in futures at low prices [10]. 3.3 Overall View - **Aluminum Ore Market**: In the short - term, the supply of domestic aluminum ore is limited, and the price is expected to remain stable. The inventory of imported ore at ports and alumina plants is high, and the supply - demand contradiction is not obvious in the short - term. The price is expected to remain stable in the third quarter and may turn stronger in the fourth quarter if the shipment from Guinea remains low and domestic inventory continues to decline [11]. - **Alumina Market**: In July, the operating capacity of national metallurgical alumina remained stable at about 88.27 million tons per year. There are new capacity projects in Guangtou Beihai in Q3, and the operating capacity may reach a new high in the first half of the year. Attention should be paid to the rainy season in Guinea and the operating capacity of alumina under the anti - involution situation [11]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: With the repair of smelting profits, some production capacity that was cut last year has gradually resumed. The current capacity utilization rate of domestic electrolytic aluminum has exceeded 95%, and new capacity is limited due to the capacity ceiling [11]. - **Import and Export**: The theoretical loss of electrolytic aluminum imports is about 1300 yuan/ton. Since February 2025, domestic aluminum exports have been growing, and although the growth rate has declined due to tariff disturbances since April, the overall performance is resilient [11]. - **Demand**: The start - up rate of domestic leading aluminum processing enterprises has decreased slightly. Different sectors have different situations. For example, the start - up rate of aluminum profiles and aluminum foil is expected to remain low, while the start - up rate of aluminum cables may recover in August [13]. - **Inventory**: The latest inventory of aluminum ingots is 512,000 tons, an increase of about 4% from last week and a decrease of about 35% from the same period last year. The inventory of aluminum rods is 137,800 tons, a decrease of about 10% from last week and an increase of about 5% from last year. The LME electrolytic aluminum inventory has been increasing slightly since July [13]. - **Profit**: The average cash cost of the Chinese alumina industry is about 2600 yuan/ton, and the profit is about 600 yuan/ton. The average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 17,600 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is about 3200 yuan/ton [14]. - **Market Expectation**: The proportion of alumina production lines over 10 years old is about 45%. There is a strong expectation of capacity withdrawal under the anti - involution background, and there is still a risk of a short squeeze. However, there is no clear policy on alumina capacity clearance in the high - quality development plan of the aluminum industry from 2025 - 2027, and the supply side has no obvious constraints for now. The short - term long - short game is intense [14]. 3.4 Important Industry Link Price Changes - The prices of most important industry links have changed slightly. For example, the price of alumina has risen and then fallen, the price of coal has continued to rise steadily, and the price of electrolytic aluminum has risen and then fallen, hitting resistance at the 21,000 level [15][16]. 3.5 Important Industry Link Inventory Changes - The inventory of aluminum ore at ports has increased, the inventory of alumina has increased slightly, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum has increased, the inventory of aluminum rods has decreased, and the LME aluminum inventory has continued to increase [18][20]. 3.6 Supply - Demand Situation - **Profit**: The cash cost of the alumina industry is about 2600 yuan/ton, with a profit of about 600 yuan/ton. The production cost of electrolytic aluminum is about 17,600 yuan/ton, with a theoretical profit of about 3200 yuan/ton. The theoretical import loss of electrolytic aluminum is about 1700 yuan/ton [22]. - **Start - up Rate**: The start - up rate of domestic leading aluminum processing enterprises has decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 58.7% compared with last week, and is 3.5 percentage points lower than the same period last year. Different sectors have different trends, and the overall start - up rate is expected to continue to decline slightly next week [26][27]. 3.7 Futures - Spot Structure - The overall price structure of Shanghai Aluminum is still in a relatively strong pattern, but the strength has weakened compared with last month [31]. 3.8 Spread Structure - The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 is about - 1430 yuan/ton this week, wider than last week. The current spread between primary aluminum and alloy is at a relatively high level in recent years, which may drag down the price of electrolytic aluminum [38][39]. 3.9 Market Capital Situation - **LME Aluminum**: The net long position has continued to rise slightly in the past 11 weeks. Since May, the short side has reduced positions overall, and the long side has increased positions slightly since early June. The market is expected to be in a relatively strong oscillation in the near future [41]. - **SHFE Electrolytic Aluminum**: The net long position of the main contract has decreased slightly. Both the long and short sides have increased positions slightly in the past week. The net long position of financial speculative funds has increased first and then decreased, remaining at the same level as last week. The net short position of funds from mid - downstream enterprises has decreased slightly. The market is expected to oscillate at a high level next week [44].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report period: July 28 - August 1, 2025 [1] - Reported futures varieties: Rebar and iron ore [2] Group 2: Rebar Futures Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term trend: The main contract of rebar futures has entered the fifth week of the red energy ladder area. [7] - Trend judgment logic: Weekly output is 2.11 million tons, apparent consumption is 2.16 million tons, major steel mills' inventory is 1.65 million tons, and social inventory is 5.7 million tons. The daily - level price is in an upward channel. [7] - Mid - term strategy: Steel spot enterprises can consider a 30% long - hedging plan. [7] Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The main contract of rebar futures was in the fourth week of the red energy ladder area. [10] - This week's strategy: The main contract of rebar futures is in the fifth week of the red energy ladder area. [11] - Spot enterprise hedging advice: Steel spot enterprises can consider implementing a 30% long - hedging strategy step - by - step. [12] Group 3: Iron Ore Futures Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term trend: The main contract of iron ore futures has entered the fourth week of the mid - term red energy stage area. [32] - Trend judgment logic: Global shipping volume last week was 31.09 million tons, arrivals at 45 major Chinese ports were 23.71 million tons, steel enterprises' inventory was 88.85 million tons, and domestic major ports' inventory was 137.9 million tons. [32] - Mid - term strategy: Spot enterprises can consider implementing a 30% long - hedging strategy step - by - step. [32] Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The main contract of iron ore futures entered the third week of the mid - term red energy stage area. [35] - This week's strategy: Spot enterprises can consider implementing a 30% long - hedging strategy step - by - step. [35] Group 4: Data Source - The data in this report is from Wind, Mysteel, and the trading consulting department of Great Wall Futures. [51]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Both soybean meal and soybean oil futures are in a wide - range oscillation phase. For soybean meal, factors like high - level oil mill crushing, limited terminal feed demand, and uncertainties in US soybean产区 weather and Sino - US trade relations contribute to this situation. For soybean oil, high oil mill operating rates, low market transactions, and supportive policies from palm oil - producing regions and the US biofuel policy lead to the wide - range oscillation [7][28]. - It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach for both soybean meal and soybean oil futures [7][28]. 3. Summary by Directory Soybean Meal Futures - **Mid - line Market Analysis** - The soybean meal main contract is in a wide - range oscillation stage. In the 29th week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.3055 million tons with an operating rate of 64.81%, and the soybean meal inventory was 998,400 tons, a 12.66% increase from the previous week. The high - level crushing leads to inventory accumulation, and the terminal feed demand increment is limited. However, uncertainties in US soybean产区 weather, Sino - US trade relations, and strong Brazilian discounts support the cost of soybean meal. It is recommended to wait and see [7]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The overall trend of soybean meal futures prices was in an upward channel, with a strong long - bias in funds. The M2509 contract was expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term, operating in the range of 2920 - 3150 [10]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The overall trend of soybean meal futures prices is in a sideways stage, with a slight long - bias in funds. The M2509 contract may maintain an oscillatory trend in the short - term, operating in the range of 2920 - 3150 [11]. - **Variety Diagnosis**: The main force is slightly long - biased, the capital energy is basically stable, and the risk of a market reversal is high [14]. - **Related Data**: The report provides data on soybean meal weekly output, weekly inventory, apparent consumption, weekly inventory days, basis, and oil - meal ratio, with data sources from Wind, Mysteel, and the Great Wall Futures Trading Consultation Department [18][20][22]. Soybean Oil Futures - **Mid - line Market Analysis** - The soybean oil main contract is in a wide - range oscillation stage. In the 29th week, the actual soybean oil output of 125 oil mills was 43,800 tons, an increase of 190 tons from the previous week, and the commercial inventory in key regions was 1.0918 million tons, a 42,400 - ton increase from the previous week. High oil mill operating rates lead to increased output and inventory, while market transactions are light. However, the warming macro - sentiment and policies from palm oil - producing regions and the US biofuel policy support the market. It is recommended to wait and see [28]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The overall trend of soybean oil futures prices was in an upward channel, with a long - bias in funds. The Y2509 contract was expected to maintain a relatively strong operation in the short - term, operating in the range of 7950 - 8300 [31]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The overall trend of soybean oil futures prices is in a sideways stage, with a strong short - bias in funds. The Y2509 contract may maintain a wide - range oscillation in the short - term, operating in the range of 7950 - 8280 [31]. - **Variety Diagnosis**: The main force is strongly short - biased, the main capital is flowing out slightly, and the risk of a market reversal is relatively high [35]. - **Related Data**: The report provides data on soybean oil weekly output, weekly inventory, basis, trading volume, soybean weekly arrival volume, weekly inventory, weekly crushing volume, weekly operating rate, weekly port inventory, and Brazilian premium, with data sources from Wind, Mysteel, and the Great Wall Futures Trading Consultation Department [41][42][46].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - For gold futures, the overall trend of Shanghai gold futures is in an upward channel and may be at the end of the trend. For silver futures, the overall trend of Shanghai silver futures is steadily rising and is also at the end of the trend. It is recommended to wait and see for both gold and silver futures [7][34] 3. Summary by Directory Gold Futures 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - The overall trend of Shanghai gold futures is in an upward channel and may be at the end of the trend. Last week, gold was affected by factors such as the US dollar index, US economic data, Fed policy expectations, geopolitical risks, RMB exchange rate, domestic infrastructure policies, market sentiment, capital flow, and technical aspects. The US dollar index alternately suppressed and supported the gold price. The mild US economic data, stable Fed policy expectations, and geopolitical risks made the gold price seek a direction in the fluctuations. Domestic infrastructure policies and RMB exchange rate fluctuations provided additional support. It is recommended to wait and see [7][8] 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week, it was expected that the gold main contract 2510 would oscillate, and grid trading was recommended in the 760 - 785 range. This week, it is still expected to oscillate, and grid trading is recommended in the 750 - 800 range [11][12] 3.3 Relevant Data Situation - The content presents the historical data trends of Shanghai gold market trends, COMEX gold market trends, SPDR gold ETF holdings, COMEX gold inventory, US 10 - year Treasury bond yields, US dollar index, US dollar against offshore RMB, gold - silver ratio, Shanghai gold basis, and gold internal - external price difference [19][22][24] Silver Futures 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - The overall trend of Shanghai silver futures is steadily rising and is at the end of the trend. Last week, the US - Japan trade agreement improved market risk appetite, but silver was less suppressed due to its stronger industrial attributes. Industrial demand, especially in the photovoltaic and new - energy vehicle fields, provided support. Next week, silver prices will be affected by US economic data, China - US trade negotiation progress, geopolitical risks, and domestic policy orientation. If there is no substantial progress in China - US trade negotiations, silver prices are expected to remain strong; otherwise, silver may face some downward pressure. It is recommended to wait and see [34][36] 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week, it was expected that the silver contract 2510 would run strongly, with the lower support range of 8800 - 8900 and the upper pressure range of 9450 - 9550. This week, it is still expected to run strongly, with the lower support range of 8800 - 8900 and the upper pressure range of 9200 - 9300 [38] 3.3 Relevant Data Situation - The content shows the historical data trends of Shanghai silver market trends, COMEX silver market trends, SLV silver ETF holdings, COMEX silver inventory, Shanghai silver basis, and silver internal - external price difference [44][46][48]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The soda ash futures market is in a volatile phase, with short - term stability and potential minor increases in some regions. The glass futures market is also in a volatile trend, with short - term upward potential but facing adjustment risks [6][31]. - For both soda ash and glass futures, the current recommended strategy is to wait and see [6][31]. 3. Summary by Directory Soda Ash Futures - **Mid - term Market Analysis** - The soda ash futures are in a volatile stage. Last week, the domestic soda ash market was stable with a slight upward trend. The industry's operating rate declined slightly, and downstream demand was mainly for immediate needs. Policy supports prices, but over - capacity remains, limiting price increases. The futures are expected to show high - level volatility [6]. - The recommended mid - term strategy is to wait and see [6]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - **Last Week's Strategy Review**：The soda ash futures were volatile last week. The spot market had weak supply - demand conditions, with an operating rate of 84.10%. Supply was expected to increase, and inventory accumulation indicated an oversupply situation. The expected operating range for soda ash 2509 was 1150 - 1300, and it was advisable to wait and see [9]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**：The domestic soda ash market was stable with a slight upward trend last week. The industry's operating rate decreased slightly. Policy supports prices, but over - capacity persists. The expected operating range for soda ash 2509 is 1250 - 1450, and it is recommended to wait and see [10]. - **Related Data** - Data includes China's weekly soda ash operating rate, production, light and heavy - quality inventory, basis (daily), and ammonia - soda production cost in North China [11][15][18]. Glass Futures - **Mid - term Market Analysis** - The glass market is in a volatile trend. Last week, the domestic 5mm float glass market was stable with an upward trend, showing regional price differentiation. Supply decreased slightly but remained abundant, and demand was mainly for immediate needs. The futures market first declined and then rose, with a risk of adjustment. In the short term, prices may still have upward space, and attention should be paid to inventory changes and policy implementation [31]. - The recommended mid - term strategy is to hold an empty position and wait and see [31]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - **Last Week's Strategy Review**：The spot market was stable with a slight upward trend last week, showing regional differentiation. The futures were more volatile, first rising and then falling, and were expected to maintain a weak - volatile trend. The expected operating range for glass 2509 was 1000 - 1200, and it was advisable to hold an empty position and wait and see [34]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**：The domestic 5mm float glass market was stable with an upward trend last week. Supply decreased slightly but remained abundant, and demand was mainly for immediate needs. The futures first declined and then rose, with a risk of adjustment at the weekend. The expected operating range for glass 2509 is 1200 - 1400, and it is recommended to hold an empty position and wait and see [35]. - **Related Data** - Data includes China's weekly float glass production, operating rate, production cost and gross profit using natural - gas - fueled float technology, basis (daily), and ending inventory [37][43][46].

Aggregate Information - Report Title: Industrial Silicon and Lithium Carbonate Futures Weekly Report [2] - Report Period: July 28 - August 1, 2025 [1] Group 1: Industrial Silicon Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: Industrial silicon futures are currently in a process of stabilizing and rebounding [6] - Trend Logic: Last week, the spot price of industrial silicon increased. As of July 25, the price of 421 in Xinjiang was 9,650 yuan/ton, 10,300 yuan/ton in Yunnan, and 10,000 yuan/ton in Sichuan. The AI intelligent investment consultation variety diagnosis report of Great Wall Futures shows that the daily price of industrial silicon is in a strong upward stage, and the main force shows a strong bullish sentiment [6] - Strategy Suggestion: The support level of the industrial silicon 2509 futures price is in the range of 8,300 - 8,600. It is recommended to buy a small amount on dips [7] 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: The price of industrial silicon was bottoming and oscillating. It was advisable to consider buying a small amount on dips during the correction [10] - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: During the process of the industrial silicon price stabilizing and rebounding, it is advisable to consider buying a small amount on dips during the correction [11] 3. Relevant Data - As of April 19, 2024, the cathode copper inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 300,045 tons, an increase of 322 tons from the previous week. Seasonally, the current inventory is at a relatively high level compared to the past five years [13] - As of April 19, 2024, the LME copper inventory was 122,125 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 25.73%. Seasonally, the current inventory is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [17] Group 2: Lithium Carbonate Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: Lithium carbonate futures are currently in a process of stabilizing and rebounding [30] - Trend Logic: Last week, the spot price of lithium carbonate increased. As of July 25, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,000 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 71,800 yuan/ton. Technically, the AI variety diagnosis report of Great Wall Futures shows that the daily price of lithium carbonate futures is in a strong upward stage, and the main force shows a strong bullish sentiment [31] - Strategy Suggestion: The support level of the lithium carbonate 2509 futures price is in the range of 69,000 - 72,000. It is recommended to buy a small amount on dips [31] 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: During the process of the lithium carbonate price stabilizing and rebounding, it was advisable to consider buying a small amount on dips during the correction [34] - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: During the process of the lithium carbonate price stabilizing and rebounding, it is advisable to consider buying a small amount on dips during the correction [35] 3. Relevant Data - As of April 19, 2024, the electrolytic aluminum inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 228,537 tons, a decrease of 3,228 tons from the previous week. Seasonally, the current inventory is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [38] - As of April 19, 2024, the LME aluminum inventory was 504,000 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 66.03%. Seasonally, the current inventory is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [41]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The aluminum market is expected to experience large - range oscillations, with an overall upward - biased trend in August. The short - term market is in a state of intense competition between "anti - involution" and the decline in social inventory out - flow during the off - season, and may be in a consolidation phase. The price of the SHFE Aluminum 2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 20,200 and 20,900 [5][13]. - In the medium term, due to factors such as the continuous decline in the out - flow rate of domestic aluminum ingot social inventory during the off - season, the lack of mention of alumina capacity clearance in the high - quality development plan of the aluminum industry from 2025 - 2027, and the production increase in Shanxi alumina, the supply side has no obvious constraints for the time being. However, there is a strong expectation of capacity withdrawal under the "anti - involution" background, and there is still a risk of a short squeeze with low warehouse receipts and a high virtual - to - real ratio. It is recommended to hold long positions at low levels in the medium term [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Medium - term Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: The market is in a large - range oscillation. In the off - season, the out - flow rate of domestic aluminum ingot social inventory continues to decline. The supply side has no obvious constraints for the time being, but there is a strong expectation of capacity withdrawal under the "anti - involution" background, and the risk of a short squeeze still exists [5]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions at low levels in the medium term [5]. 2. Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The SHFE Aluminum 2509 contract was expected to oscillate between 20,500 and 21,100. It was advisable to appropriately arrange long positions near the lower end of the range [7]. - **This Week's Strategy Recommendation**: The price may enter a wide - range oscillation phase. The SHFE Aluminum 2509 contract is expected to be between 20,200 and 20,900, and it is recommended to wait and see [8]. - **Hedging Recommendation for Spot Enterprises**: Consider appropriately allocating virtual futures inventory at low prices [9]. 3. Overall View Supply - related - **Bauxite Market**: In the short term, the supply of domestic bauxite is limited, and the price is expected to remain stable. The inventory of imported bauxite at ports and alumina plants is high, and the supply - demand contradiction is not obvious in the short term. The price is expected to remain stable in the third quarter. If Guinea's shipments remain low and domestic bauxite inventory continues to decline, the price may turn upward in the fourth quarter [10]. - **Alumina Market**: In July, the operating capacity of national metallurgical - grade alumina remained stable at about 88.27 million tons per year. There is a new production capacity project in Guangtou Beihai in Q3, and the operating capacity may reach a new high in the first half of the year. Attention should be paid to the rainy season in Guinea and the operating capacity of alumina under the "anti - involution" background [10]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: With the recovery of domestic electrolytic aluminum smelting profits this year, some production capacity that was cut last year has gradually resumed production. Currently, the utilization rate of domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity has exceeded 95%. Due to the production capacity ceiling, there is limited new production capacity in the future [10]. - **Import and Export**: Currently, the theoretical loss of electrolytic aluminum imports is about 1,300 yuan/ton. Since February 2025, domestic aluminum exports have been increasing. Although the growth rate has declined since April due to tariff disturbances, overall, it shows resilience [10]. Demand - related - **Aluminum Profiles**: The operating rate of domestic leading aluminum profile enterprises remained stable at 50.5% this week. The new orders for construction profiles are weak, and the overall operating rate of industrial profiles remained stable. In the off - season, the market is difficult to achieve significant growth and is expected to remain stable in the short term [12]. - **Aluminum Sheet, Strip and Foil**: The operating rate of leading aluminum foil enterprises remained stable at 69.6%. With the upcoming high - temperature holidays in August, some upstream production enterprises may make production - cut plans, and the operating rate of the aluminum foil industry will continue to remain low in the short term. The operating rate of leading aluminum sheet and strip enterprises remained stable at 63.2%, and it will maintain a low - level operation under the weak domestic and overseas demand [12]. - **Aluminum Cables**: The operating rate of leading aluminum cable enterprises decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 61.6% this week. Although it is still at a low level in the short term, there are signs of marginal improvement, and the operating rate is expected to enter a recovery phase in August [12]. - **Alloys**: The operating rate of the primary aluminum alloy industry remained stable at 54.0%. The industry is in a game between "aluminum water allocation - led" and "aluminum price suppressing demand". Although the export volume data is better than expected recently, the export situation may still be deeply adjusted, and substantial recovery depends on clear policies and alleviation of cost pressure. The operating rate of leading secondary aluminum enterprises decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 53.1% this week. Affected by factors such as declining demand, difficult raw material replenishment, and profit inversion, the operating rate is expected to continue to be under pressure in the short term [12]. Inventory - related - **Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory**: The latest inventory of aluminum ingots is 512,000 tons, an increase of about 4% from last week and a decrease of about 35% from the same period last year. The inventory of aluminum rods is 137,800 tons, a decrease of about 10% from last week and an increase of about 5% from the same period last year. The LME electrolytic aluminum inventory has been increasing slightly since July and is still at a low level since 1990 [12]. Profit - related - **Alumina Profit**: Currently, the average cash cost of the Chinese alumina industry is about 2,600 yuan/ton, and the profit is about 600 yuan/ton, compared with about 550 yuan/ton last week [13]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Profit**: Currently, the average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 17,600 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is about 3,200 yuan/ton, the same as last week, and the profit is at a relatively high level [13]. Market Expectation and Outlook - **Market Expectation**: There is a strong expectation of capacity withdrawal of alumina under the "anti - involution" background, and there is still a risk of a short squeeze. However, considering that the high - quality development plan of the aluminum industry from 2025 - 2027 does not mention alumina capacity clearance and the production increase in Shanxi alumina, the supply side has no obvious constraints for the time being. Attention should be paid to the supply - side clearance policy, and beware of the downward trend if the expectation is not met. In the short term, the long - short game is intense [13]. - **Personal View**: The new production capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum in the third quarter is the lowest in the whole year. August is the window period for the conversion between the off - season and the peak season. With the easing of the China - US tariff war, exports remain resilient. With the implementation of domestic "anti - involution" and stable - growth policies, the supply - demand situation in August can be viewed optimistically. In the next week, due to the continuous decline in the out - flow rate of aluminum ingots during the off - season, the "anti - involution" expectation has cooled down, and the price may enter a wide - range oscillation phase. The SHFE Aluminum 2509 contract is expected to be between 20,200 and 20,900 [13]. - **Key Concerns**: Whether the inventory of LME and domestic electrolytic aluminum accumulates more than expected and the implementation of the "anti - involution" policy [13]. - **Direction**: The market is in a large - range oscillation and is expected to strengthen slightly in August [13]. 4. Important Industry Link Price Changes - The downstream purchasing enthusiasm for bauxite is average. In August, the impact of the rainy season in Guinea is expected to be reflected in the domestic bauxite supply, and imports are expected to decline. The price of imported bauxite is expected to oscillate between 70 - 75 US dollars per dry ton in the short term. The coal price continued to rise steadily this week, and there is an expectation of marginal tightening of domestic supply before September. The alumina price rose first and then fell, and there is no obvious sign of a trend reversal [14]. - The price of electrolytic aluminum rose first and then fell this week, and was blocked again at the 21,000 level. The short - term market may be in a consolidation phase [15]. 5. Important Industry Link Inventory Changes - The port inventory of imported bauxite continued to increase slightly. The inventory of alumina and electrolytic aluminum increased, while the inventory of aluminum rods decreased. The LME aluminum inventory continued to increase, mainly due to weak overseas demand and the new position - limit rule of LME's near - month contracts [17][19]. 6. Supply - Demand Situation - **Profit Situation**: This week, the average cash cost of the domestic alumina industry is about 2,600 yuan/ton, and the profit is about 600 yuan/ton. The theoretical loss of alumina imports is about 100 yuan/ton. The production cost of electrolytic aluminum is about 17,600 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is about 3,200 yuan/ton. The theoretical loss of electrolytic aluminum imports is about 1,700 yuan/ton [21]. - **Downstream Processing Enterprises**: The operating rate of domestic leading aluminum downstream processing enterprises decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 58.7% this week, a decrease of 3.5 percentage points compared with the same period last year. It is expected that the operating rate will continue to decline slightly next week [25][26]. 7. Futures - Spot Structure - The overall price structure of SHFE aluminum is still in a relatively strong pattern, but the strength has weakened compared with last month [30]. 8. Spread Structure - The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 this week is about - 1,430 yuan/ton, compared with - 1,330 yuan/ton last week. The current spread between primary aluminum and alloy is at a relatively high level in recent years, which may drag down the price of electrolytic aluminum [37][38]. 9. Market Capital Situation - **LME Aluminum**: The net long position has been rising slightly in the past 11 weeks. Since May, the short side has been reducing positions overall, and the long side has been increasing positions slightly since early June. The market is expected to oscillate strongly in the near future [40]. - **SHFE Electrolytic Aluminum**: The net long position of the main contract has decreased slightly. Both the long and short sides have increased positions slightly in the past week. The net long position of funds mainly for financial speculation first increased and then decreased, generally remaining at the same level as last week. The net short position of funds mainly from mid - downstream enterprises has decreased slightly. The market is expected to oscillate at a high level next week [43].