Chang Cheng Qi Huo

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纯碱、玻璃期货品种周报-20250929
Chang Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 05:27
纯碱、玻璃 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 纯碱期货 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 2025.09.29-09.30 建议观望 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 中线行情分析 纯碱期货处于震荡阶段。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 上周国内纯碱市场窄幅震荡,区域价格分化。供应端部分装置复产, 开工率提升,市场供应趋松;下游需求平稳,刚需采购为主,节前 备货对市场提振有限。企业以执行订单为主,库存压力尚可。纯碱 期货先跌后涨,周初受高库存压制下行,随后在玻璃期货反弹及节 前补库带动下震荡走强。当前基本面未实质改善,预计短期延续震 荡格局,后续关注库存去化情况。 2 上周策略回顾 上周纯碱市场延续窄幅震荡,价格波动有限,交投清淡。供 应宽松,需求疲软,库存虽小幅下降但仍处高位。市场缺乏 上行驱动,预计短期延续弱势,需关注节前补库。期货震荡 回落,基本面承压格局未变。预计纯碱2601运行区间1200- 1350。可考虑观望。 本周策略建议 上周国内纯碱市场窄幅震荡,价格区域分化,整体波动有限。 供应小幅回升,需求平稳但提振不足,企业以执行订单为主, 库存压力尚 ...
豆粕、豆油期货品种周报-20250929
Chang Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 05:26
目录 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 Contents 2025.09.29-09.30 豆粕、豆油 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 豆粕期货 2 中线行情分析 中线趋势来看,豆粕主力处于宽幅震荡的阶段。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 据Mysteel数据:第38周油厂大豆实际压榨量242.75万吨,开机率为 67.76%;豆粕库存125万吨,较上周增加8.56万吨,增幅7.35%。油厂豆 粕库存处于高位,但假期部分油厂计划停机,有望缓解一定的库存压力。 需求方面,养殖业普遍亏损制约饲料消费,下游采购心态谨慎,不过低 价也刺激了部分节前备货需求,现货市场购销情绪有所转暖。综合来看, 市场缺乏强劲的上涨动力,但在进口成本支撑下,中线趋势预计将维持 宽幅震荡格局。 2 关注中美贸易进展及南美天气。 中线策略建议 3 豆粕期价整体趋势处于横盘阶段,资金方面较为偏多。M2601 预计维持在2900-3200之间震荡。 本周策略建议 为规避十一长假期间外盘波动风险,建议轻仓或空仓过节。 品种诊断情况 品种交易策略 上周策略回顾 | 豆粕(m) v く | | --- | | 品种诊断 ...
螺纹钢、铁矿石期货品种周报-20250929
Chang Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 03:05
2025.09.29-09.30 螺纹钢、铁矿石 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 螺纹钢期货 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 中线行情分析 根据长城期货AI智能大数据量化策略模型综合分析,螺纹钢期货主 力合约运行于震荡整理区间。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 螺纹钢周度产量218万吨,表观消费量196万吨,主要钢厂库存176万 吨,社会库存722万吨。长城期货AI智能投询品种诊断报告显示螺纹钢 期货主力合约运行于整理区间。 2 观望等待整理阶段完成。 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 上周策略回顾 螺纹钢期货主力合约进入上行阶梯第一周。 本周策略建议 根据长城期货AI智能大数据量化策略模型,螺纹钢期货主力 合约进入震荡整理区间。 观望等待中线趋势明朗。 现货企业套期保值建议 相关数据情况 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 相关数据情况 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 相关数据情况 相关数据情况 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、 ...
黄金、白银期货品种周报-20250929
Chang Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 03:05
2025.09.29-09.30 黄金、白银 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 黄金期货 目录 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 本周黄金期货价格整体呈现"冲高回调后再度企稳"的偏强震荡格局。主 要受美联储降息周期开启后市场对年内进一步宽松的预期、地缘政治风 险升温推升避险需求、全球黄金ETF持仓增持与国内消费需求旺盛形成 共振。尽管周中受美国经济数据韧性及多头获利了结影响出现短暂回调, 但中长期支撑因素未改,价格快速修复并再创阶段性高位。从中长期来 看美元信用弱化、全球央行持续购金及地缘政治风险升温共同驱动,叠 加投资需求激增形成多重支撑。 2 建议观望。 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 上周策略回顾 Contents 中线行情分析 沪金期货整体趋势处在上升通道中,当前可能处于趋势尾声。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 黄金合约2512预期高位震荡为主,下方支撑位805-812,上方阻 力位:838-845。重点关注美联储政策路径指引、美国经济 数据验证。 本周策略建议 黄金合约2512存在高位获利了结压力,下方支撑位845-850,建 议节前以观望为主。 品种诊断情况 本报告数 ...
工业硅、碳酸锂期货品种周报-20250929
Chang Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 03:00
2025.09.29-09.30 工业硅、碳酸锂 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 工业硅期货 目录 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 Contents 中线行情分析 工业硅期货目前处于大区间震荡运行。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 2 上周工业硅现货价格上行,截至9月26日新疆地区421#价格9300元/吨,云 南地区421#价格9900元/吨,四川地区421#价格10000元/吨。长城期货AI 智能投询品种诊断报告显示工业硅价格日线处在横盘阶段。资金方面,主 力空头阵营略占优势。 预计工业硅2511合约运行区间在7700—10000之中。 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 上周策略回顾 工业硅大区间运行,以逢低做多为主。 本周策略建议 为了控制国庆长假期间的不确定性风险,建议轻仓 或空仓过节。 相关数据情况 截止至2024年04月19日,上海期货交易所阴极铜库存为300,045吨,较上一周增加322吨。从季节性角度分析,当前库存较近五年相比维持在较高水平。 SHF阴极铜库存走势 SHF阴极铜库存季节性分析 相关数据情况 截止至2024年04月19日,LME铜库存为122,125 ...
电解铝期货品种周报-20250929
Chang Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 01:51
2025.09.29-09.30 电解铝 期货品种周报 中线行情分析 展望四季度,全球经济预期改善、美联储降息周期开启及国内政策托底,供 应方面,国内外增量有限,呈现刚性约束,新能源板块保持强劲而地产板块 持续低迷,整体需求韧性依旧,预计2025年四季度铝价将呈现偏强震荡格局。 2 20000以下可以考虑持中期多单。 3 中线策略建议 品种交易策略 上周策略回顾 未来一周沪铝2 5 1 1支撑约2 0 5 0 0 ,阻力约2 0 9 0 0 ,短线交易。 大区间震荡 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 长假期临近,避险观望为宜。 本周策略建议 适量配置过节库存。 现货企业套期保值建议 【总体观点】 | | 2025年9月第4周 | | --- | --- | | 铝土矿市场 | 四季度几内亚铝土矿扰动预计可控,但由于其资源垄断性及铝土矿在当地财政的占比较高,预计价格在 | | | 70-75美元/吨波动。国内矿山治理政策,对国内矿石将形成长期约束,四季度供应预计难有明显改善。 | | 氧化铝市场 | 截止9月26日,国内氧化铝建成产能约11255万吨,运行产能约9670万吨,产能利用率约85.95%,上周 | | ...
工业硅、碳酸锂期货品种周报2025.09.22-09.26-20250922
Chang Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-09-22 12:07
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Both industrial silicon and lithium carbonate futures are currently in a large - range oscillatory operation. For industrial silicon, the 2511 contract is expected to operate between 7,700 and 10,000, and for lithium carbonate, the 2511 contract is expected to operate between 65,000 and 100,000 [6][31][32]. 3. Summary by Directory Industrial Silicon Futures - **Mid - term Market Analysis** - Mid - term trend: Industrial silicon futures are in large - range oscillatory operation. The spot price increased last week. As of September 19, the 421 price in Xinjiang was 9,000 yuan/ton, in Yunnan 9,800 yuan/ton, and in Sichuan 9,900 yuan/ton. The AI report shows the daily price is in a sideways phase, and the main long - position camp has a slight advantage. The 2511 contract is expected to operate between 7,700 and 10,000 [6][7]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - Last week's strategy: Trade by buying at low prices in the large - range operation. - This week's strategy: Trade by buying at low prices in the large - range operation [10][11]. - **Related Data** - As of April 19, 2024, SHFE cathode copper inventory was 300,045 tons, an increase of 322 tons from the previous week, at a relatively high level compared to the past five years. LME copper inventory was 122,125 tons, with a cancelled warrant ratio of 25.73%, at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [13][17]. Lithium Carbonate Futures - **Mid - term Market Analysis** - Mid - term trend: Lithium carbonate futures are in large - range oscillatory operation. The spot price increased last week. As of September 19, the market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,250 yuan/ton, and industrial - grade was 71,600 yuan/ton. The AI report shows the futures are in a downward channel, and there is no obvious long - short bias among the main players. The 2511 contract is expected to operate between 65,000 and 100,000 [31][32]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - Last week's strategy: Consider grid trading within the range. - This week's strategy: Consider grid trading within the range [35]. - **Related Data** - As of April 19, 2024, SHFE electrolytic aluminum inventory was 228,537 tons, a decrease of 3,228 tons from the previous week, at a relatively low level compared to the past five years. LME aluminum inventory was 504,000 tons, with a cancelled warrant ratio of 66.03%, at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [37][38].
螺纹钢、铁矿石期货品种周报2025.09.22-09.26-20250922
Chang Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-09-22 12:02
2025.09.22-09.26 螺纹钢、铁矿石 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 螺纹钢期货 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 中线行情分析 根据长城期货AI智能大数据量化策略模型综合分析,螺纹钢期货主 力合约运行于上行通道第一周。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 螺纹钢周度产量215万吨,表观消费量193万吨,主要钢厂库存172万 吨,社会库存725万吨。长城期货AI智能投询品种诊断报告显示螺纹钢 期货主力合约运行于上行通道之中。 2 现货需求客户可考虑分步实施买入保值策略。 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 螺纹钢期货主力合约进入下行阶梯第三周。 n 上周策略回顾 n 本周策略建议 根据长城期货AI智能大数据量化策略模型,螺纹钢期货主力 合约进入中线上行通道第一周。 n 现货企业套期保值建议 现货需求客户可考虑分步实施50%比例的买入保值策略。 相关数据情况 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 相关数据情况 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 相关数据情况 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城 ...
黄金、白银期货品种周报-20250922
Chang Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-09-22 11:50
Group 1: Gold Futures Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is in an upward channel and may be at the end of the trend. The price showed a volatile pattern of "soaring - retracting - recovering" this week due to the "expectation gap" after the Fed's interest rate cut and the offset of high inventory by central bank gold purchases and ETF fund inflows. In the long - term, the weakening of the US dollar credit, continuous central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical risks drive the price, with surging investment demand providing multiple supports [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Mid - line Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is in an upward channel and may be at the end of the trend [7]. - **Trend Judgment Logic**: This week, the gold futures price showed a "soaring - retracting - recovering" pattern due to the "expectation gap" after the Fed's interest rate cut and the offset of high inventory by central bank gold purchases and ETF fund inflows. Next week, key factors include the Fed's policy path guidance, US economic data verification, inventory destocking rhythm, and global risk - aversion sentiment. In the long - term, the weakening of the US dollar credit, continuous central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical risks drive the price, with surging investment demand providing multiple supports [7]. - **Mid - line Strategy Suggestion**: It is recommended to wait and see [8]. 2. Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The gold contract 2512 was expected to be mainly in a high - level volatile and strong operation, with the lower support level at 795 - 814, and investors were warned of the risk of chasing high prices [11]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The gold contract 2512 is expected to be mainly in high - level volatility, with the lower support level at 805 - 812 and the upper resistance level at 838 - 845. Key factors to focus on are the Fed's policy path guidance and US economic data verification [12]. 3. Relevant Data Situation - Data on Shanghai Gold futures price trends, SPDR gold ETF holdings, COMEX gold inventory, US 10 - year Treasury yield, US dollar index, US dollar against offshore RMB, gold - silver ratio, Shanghai Gold basis, and gold internal - external price difference are presented in graphical form [20][23][25] Group 2: Silver Futures Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The overall trend of Shanghai Silver futures is steadily rising and is currently at the end of the trend. The price showed a volatile pattern of "soaring, retracting, and then rebounding" last week, affected by the "buy - on - expectation, sell - on - reality" effect after the Fed's interest rate cut expectation and the bottom support from continuous inventory destocking. In the short - term, there is a risk of a pullback after "positive realization". In the long - term, attention should be paid to the resonance of industrial demand and financial attributes, and silver may have higher elasticity than gold under the combination of "interest rate cut + demand recovery" in the fourth quarter if the soft - landing expectation is fulfilled [33]. Summary by Directory 1. Mid - line Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: The overall trend of Shanghai Silver futures is steadily rising and is currently at the end of the trend [33]. - **Trend Judgment Logic**: Last week, the silver futures price showed a "soaring, retracting, and then rebounding" pattern, affected by the "buy - on - expectation, sell - on - reality" effect after the Fed's interest rate cut expectation and the bottom support from continuous inventory destocking. In the short - term, if the Fed is cautious about the 2026 interest rate cut expectation or the US economic data is unexpectedly strong, silver may test the 9800 yuan/ton support level again. In the long - term, if the soft - landing expectation is fulfilled in the fourth quarter, silver may have higher elasticity than gold under the combination of "interest rate cut + demand recovery" [33]. - **Mid - line Strategy Suggestion**: It is recommended to wait and see [33]. 2. Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The silver contract 2512 was expected to be mainly in a strong operation, with the lower support range at 9500 - 9800, and investors were warned of the risk of chasing high prices [36]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The silver contract 2512 is expected to be mainly in a strong operation, with the lower support range at 9500 - 9800. Key factors to focus on are the Fed's policy path guidance, US economic data verification, and changes in silver industrial demand expectations [37]. 3. Relevant Data Situation - Data on Shanghai Silver futures price trends, SLV silver ETF holdings, COMEX silver inventory, Shanghai Silver basis, and silver internal - external price difference are presented in graphical form [44][46][48]
豆粕、豆油期货品种周报-20250922
Chang Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-09-22 11:50
01 P A R T 豆粕期货 2025.09.22-09.26 豆粕、豆油 期货品种周报 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 中线行情分析 关注中美贸易进展。 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 n 上周策略回顾 豆粕期价整体趋势处于横盘阶段,资金方面较为偏多。M2601 预计维持在2980-3200之间震荡。 n 本周策略建议 豆粕期价整体趋势处于横盘阶段,资金方面较为偏多。M2601预 计维持在2900-3200之间震荡。 中线趋势来看,豆粕主力处于宽幅震荡的阶段。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 据Mysteel数据:第37周油厂大豆实际压榨量236.04万吨,开机率为 66.35%;豆粕库存116.44万吨,较上周增加2.82万吨,增幅2.48%。当前 油厂豆粕库存仍处高位,催提现象普遍,沿海主要地区基差或继续承压, 饲料厂略有补库开始备货,市场心态观望盘整为主。预计豆粕价格延续 宽幅震荡走势。 2 品种诊断情况 | 豆粕(m) × < | | --- | | 品种诊断 机构观点 盈利席位 主力资金 : | | 多空流向: 82.4 ~ ~ 主力强烈偏多 ...