2025.8.25-8.29 电解铝 期货品种周报 中线行情分析 大区间震荡,9月上旬偏强对待。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 9月美联储降息为高高概率事件，国内即将进入传统消费旺季，下游开工率回 升。 2 20000以下可以考虑持中期多单。 3 中线策略建议 品种交易策略 n 上周策略回顾 特朗普再度挥舞关税大棒，短期波动可能加剧，观望为宜。 保持适当库存即可。 【总体观点】 | | 2025年8月第4周 | | --- | --- | | 铝土矿市场 | 近期山西和河南两地受安监及环保督察等因素开采受限，部分矿山暂停生产，贵州铝土矿增量明显， | | | 国产矿7月产量环比上行。几内亚政府NMC国有矿业公司，接管GAC的采矿权，后续预计进口矿供应持稳 | | | 运行，7月铝土矿进口环比增加，进口矿价环比上行，国内铝土矿库存已补至同期最高位，从原料平衡 | | | 来看铝土矿供应基本可以满足年内生产所需。不过9月份几内亚政局仍存在一定不确定，铝土矿上下空 | | | 间目前来看可能不大。 | | 氧化铝市场 | 截止8月22日，国内氧化铝建成产能约11255万吨，运行产能约9630万吨，产能利用率约85 ...

2025.08.25-08.29 工业硅、碳酸锂 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 工业硅期货 目录 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 Contents 中线行情分析 工业硅期货目前处于大区间震荡运行。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 2 上周工业硅现货价格小幅下跌，截至8月22日新疆地区421#价格8800元/吨， 云南地区421#价格9800元/吨，四川地区421#价格10000元/吨。长城期货 AI智能投询品种诊断报告显示工业硅价格日线处在横盘阶段。资金方面， 主力空头阵营略占优势。 预计工业硅2511合约运行区间在7700—10000之中。 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 n 上周策略回顾 工业硅可考虑区间网格交易。 n 本周策略建议 工业硅可考虑区间网格交易。 相关数据情况 截止至2024年04月19日，上海期货交易所阴极铜库存为300,045吨，较上一周增加322吨。从季节性角度分析，当前库存较近五年相比维持在较高水平。 SHF阴极铜库存走势 SHF阴极铜库存季节性分析 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 相关数据情况 LME库存与注销仓单比率 ...

2025.08.25-08.29 豆粕、豆油 期货品种周报 中线行情分析 01 P A R T 豆粕期货 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 中线趋势来看，豆粕主力处于宽幅震荡的阶段。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 据Mysteel数据：第33周油厂大豆实际压榨量233.9万吨，开机率为 65.75%；豆粕库存101.47万吨，较上周增加1.12万吨，增幅1.12%。国内 油厂维持高开机率，压榨量居高不下，虽生猪养殖持续亏损制约饲料消 费潜力，然而双节前备货需求带动下游补库情绪回暖。国际市场方面， 美豆高单产预期压制期价，但种植面积下调与中美贸易不确定性因素， 为豆粕价格提供了潜在支撑。综合来看，豆粕期货预计延续宽幅震荡态 势。 2 若四季度买船持续放缓，则豆粕期货重心或逐步上移。 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 n 上周策略回顾 豆粕期价整体趋势处于横盘阶段,资金方面强烈偏多。M2601 短期内或延续震荡偏强走势，预计运行区间：3000-3250。 n 本周策略建议 豆粕期价整体趋势处于横盘阶段,资金方面较为偏多。M2601短 期内或处于震荡走势，预计运行区 ...

2025.08.25-08.29 黄金、白银 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 黄金期货 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 中线行情分析 黄金主力合约2510预期震荡运行为主，建议：760－800区间进行 网格交易。 沪金期货整体趋势处在横盘阶段，当前可能处于开始阶段。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 上周黄金价格走势呈现震荡偏弱走势，周内涨跌幅在-0.36%至0.32%间 波动，主要受美联储降息预期反复、地缘风险降温压制短期避险需求， 叠加ETF资金流出与库存增加，共同主导价格区间震荡。下周需重点关 注杰克逊霍尔会议鲍威尔讲话对政策路径的指引、美国经济数据对降息 预期的影响，以及地缘局势新变化。 2 建议观望。 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 n 上周策略回顾 黄金主力合约2510预期震荡运行为主，建议：735－838区间进行 网格交易。 n 本周策略建议 品种诊断情况 | 黄金(au) v | | 黄金(au) v | | --- | --- | --- | | 盈利席位 主力资金 : 品种诊断 | 机构观点 | | | | | 品种诊断 机构观点 盈利 ...

2025.08.25-08.29 螺纹钢、铁矿石 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 螺纹钢期货 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 趋势判断逻辑 螺纹钢周度产量214万吨，表观消费量194万吨，主要钢厂库存174万 吨，社会库存642万吨。长城期货AI智能投询品种诊断报告显示螺纹钢 期货主力资金暂无明显多空倾向。 2 目录 中线行情分析 根据长城期货AI智能大数据量化策略模型综合分析，螺纹钢期货主 力合约进入震荡整理区间。 中线趋势判断 1 观望等待整理阶段完成。 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 螺纹钢期货主力合约进入震荡整理区间。 n 上周策略回顾 n 本周策略建议 根据长城期货AI智能大数据量化策略模型，螺纹钢期货主力 合约进入震荡整理阶段，耐心等待新一轮中线趋势。 n 现货企业套期保值建议 整理阶段密切关注等待新一轮中线趋势明朗。 相关数据情况 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 相关数据情况 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 相关数据情况 本报 ...

2025.08.25-08.29 纯碱、玻璃 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 纯碱期货 趋势判断逻辑 上周国内纯碱市场延续弱势下跌态势，价格承压下行。行业供应持 续宽松，产量维持高位，库存不断累积，而下游需求疲软，企业多 刚需采购，市场低价货源增多，进一步加剧出货压力。华北、东北 及西北等地价格均有不同幅度下调，实际成交议价空间较大。期货 市场同样受供强需弱格局压制，虽偶有政策消息短暂提振，但缺乏 基本面支撑，市场情绪偏空，多空博弈激烈。短期来看，纯碱市场 预计仍将维持震荡偏弱走势。 2 中线策略建议 3 建议观望 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 中线行情分析 纯碱期货处于震荡阶段。 中线趋势判断 1 品种交易策略 n 上周策略回顾 上周国内纯碱市场供需宽松，稳中偏弱。供应高位库存承压， 需求疲软刚需小单为主，交投清淡。核心矛盾为高供应与弱 需求博弈，预计短期维持窄幅震荡偏弱格局，需关注装置动 态及下游补库。纯碱2601运行区间1300-1450。可考虑观望。 n 本周策略建议 上周纯碱市场延续弱势，价格承压下行。供应宽松、库存累 积，叠加下游需求疲软， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The soda ash market is in a state of high supply and weak demand, with the spot market expected to maintain a narrow - range weakening oscillation, and the futures market to remain volatile in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [6][8]. - The glass market is characterized by weak supply and demand, with the spot market expected to continue its weak oscillation, and the futures market to be restricted by factors such as high inventory and weak demand. It is advisable to hold an empty - position and wait and see [29]. 3. Summary by Directory Soda Ash Futures Mid - line Market Analysis - The soda ash futures are in an oscillation phase. The spot market has a pattern of high supply and weak demand, with the mainstream price of light soda ash at 1060 - 1470 yuan/ton and heavy soda ash at 1060 - 1520 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain a narrow - range weakening oscillation, and the futures may remain volatile in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [6][8]. Variety Trading Strategy - **Last week's strategy review**: The soda ash market was weak last week, with small price fluctuations. The supply first tightened due to enterprise maintenance and then recovered, while the demand remained weak. The market sentiment turned from wait - and - see to cautiously bearish. It was expected that the market would maintain a narrow - range oscillation, and the operating range of soda ash 2601 was 1250 - 1400. It was advisable to wait and see [11]. - **This week's strategy suggestion**: The supply of the soda ash market is high and the inventory is under pressure, while the demand is weak. The core contradiction is the game between high supply and weak demand. It is expected to maintain a narrow - range weakening oscillation in the short term. The operating range of soda ash 2601 is 1300 - 1450. It is recommended to wait and see [12]. Relevant Data Situation - The relevant data include China's weekly soda ash production, weekly soda ash operating rate, weekly light and heavy soda ash inventory, daily soda ash basis, and weekly ammonia - soda process production cost in North China. The multi - empty flow is - 97.4, the capital energy is 76.2, and the multi - empty divergence is 91.1, indicating a high risk of market reversal [13][16][18][22] Glass Futures Mid - line Market Analysis - The glass is in an oscillation trend. The price of 5mm float glass in the domestic market generally fell by 10 - 60 yuan/ton last week. The market is characterized by weak supply and demand, and it is expected to maintain a weak oscillation in the short term. The futures are also in a weakening oscillation. It is recommended to hold an empty - position and wait and see [29]. Variety Trading Strategy - **Last week's strategy review**: The price of 5mm float glass in the domestic market decreased last week. The demand was weak, and the supply increased after resumption. The market was in a weak oscillation. The expected operating range of glass 2509 was 950 - 1150. It was advisable to hold an empty - position and wait and see [32]. - **This week's strategy suggestion**: The price of 5mm float glass in the domestic market fell by 10 - 60 yuan/ton last week. The supply and demand are both weak, and it is expected to maintain a weak oscillation in the short term. The expected operating range of glass 2601 is 1150 - 1300. It is recommended to hold an empty - position and wait and see [33]. Relevant Data Situation - The relevant data include China's weekly float glass production, weekly float glass operating rate, weekly production cost and production profit of the float process using natural gas as fuel, daily glass basis, and weekly float glass ending inventory. The multi - empty flow is - 98.8, the capital energy is 15.3, and the multi - empty divergence is 95.0, indicating a high risk of market reversal [35][38][40][45]

2025.08.18-08.22 螺纹钢、铁矿石 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 螺纹钢期货 01 中线行情分析 目录 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 Contents 中线行情分析 根据长城期货AI智能大数据量化策略模型综合分析，螺纹钢期货主 力合约进入震荡整理区间。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 螺纹钢周度产量220万吨，表观消费量190万吨，主要钢厂库存172万 吨，社会库存624万吨。长城期货AI智能投询品种诊断报告显示螺纹钢 期货主力资金暂无明显多空倾向。 2 观望等待整理阶段完成。 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 螺纹钢期货主力合约进入震荡整理区间。 n 上周策略回顾 n 本周策略建议 根据长城期货AI智能大数据量化策略模型，螺纹钢期货主力 合约进入震荡整理阶段，耐心等待新一轮中线趋势。 n 现货企业套期保值建议 耐心等待新一轮中线趋势明朗。 相关数据情况 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 相关数据情况 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 相关数据情况 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 相关数据情况 本 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - Industrial silicon futures are currently in a large - range oscillation. The spot price of industrial silicon rose slightly last week. The AI intelligent investment consultation report shows that the daily price of industrial silicon is in a sideways phase, and the main force shows a strong bullish sentiment. It is expected that the industrial silicon 2511 contract will operate in the range of 7,700 - 10,000 [6][7]. - Lithium carbonate futures are also in a large - range oscillation. The spot price of lithium carbonate rose significantly last week. The AI intelligent investment consultation report shows that the daily price of lithium carbonate futures is in a strong upward phase, but the main force has an obvious bearish attitude. It is expected that the lithium carbonate 2511 contract will operate in the range of 65,000 - 100,000 [28][29]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Industrial Silicon Futures - **Mid - line Market Analysis** - The industrial silicon futures are in a large - range oscillation. As of August 15, the 421 price in Xinjiang was 9,150 yuan/ton, 10,000 yuan/ton in Yunnan, and 10,100 yuan/ton in Sichuan. The daily price is in a sideways phase, and the main force has a bullish sentiment. It is expected that the industrial silicon 2511 contract will operate between 7,700 and 10,000 [6][7]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - Last week's strategy: Consider grid trading in the range. This week's strategy: Still consider grid trading in the range [10]. - **Related Data Situation** - As of April 19, 2024, the SHFE cathode copper inventory was 300,045 tons, an increase of 322 tons from the previous week, and it is at a relatively high level compared to the past five years. The LME copper inventory was 122,125 tons, and the ratio of cancelled warrants was 25.73%, at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [12][16]. Lithium Carbonate Futures - **Mid - line Market Analysis** - The lithium carbonate futures are in a large - range oscillation. As of August 15, the market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 83,000 yuan/ton, and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 81,950 yuan/ton. The daily price of lithium carbonate futures is in a strong upward phase, but the main force has a bearish attitude. It is expected that the lithium carbonate 2511 contract will operate between 65,000 and 100,000 [28][29]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - Last week's strategy: Buy a small amount when the lithium carbonate price pulls back to the range of 63,000 - 65,000. This week's strategy: Mainly wait and see [32]. - **Related Data Situation** - As of April 19, 2024, the SHFE electrolytic aluminum inventory was 228,537 tons, a decrease of 3,228 tons from the previous week, and it is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years. The LME aluminum inventory was 504,000 tons, and the ratio of cancelled warrants was 66.03%, also at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [34][35].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - For gold futures, the overall trend of Shanghai gold futures is in a sideways phase, possibly at the beginning. In the short - term, the focus on the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and geopolitical risks will drive it to be volatile and strong. In the long - term, if the interest - rate cut in September is realized, the gold price may challenge a new high of $3500. For silver futures, the overall trend of Shanghai silver futures is in a steady upward trend, currently at the end of the trend. The long - term trend depends on the energy transition progress, actual interest - rate cut strength, and the repair momentum of the gold - silver ratio [7][33]. 3. Summary by Directory Gold Futures 3.1.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - The overall trend of Shanghai gold futures is sideways, possibly at the start. The Fed's over 90% probability of a September interest - rate cut, a two - week low in the US dollar index, and a decline in US bond yields suppress the cost of holding gold. Geopolitical risks are divided, with trade frictions supporting the safe - haven property of gold. The SPDR Gold ETF has continuously increased its positions (nearly 5 tons weekly), and institutional allocation demand has recovered. The short - term is driven by the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and geopolitical risks, while the long - term depends on the strength of the interest - rate cut, inflation stickiness, and the central bank's gold - buying persistence. A "cautious interest - rate cut" signal from the Fed's August 22 meeting minutes may trigger a correction. The mid - line strategy is to wait and see [7]. 3.1.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week, the gold main contract 2510 was expected to be mainly volatile, and grid trading in the 735 - 838 range was recommended. This week, the same strategy is recommended [11][12]. 3.1.3 Relevant Data Situation - There are data charts showing the trends of Shanghai gold futures, COMEX gold futures, SPDR Gold ETF holdings, COMEX gold inventory, US 10 - year Treasury yields, US dollar index, US dollar against offshore RMB, gold - silver ratio, Shanghai gold basis, and gold internal - external price difference [19][21][23] Silver Futures 3.2.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - The overall trend of Shanghai silver futures is steadily rising, currently at the end of the trend. Last week, silver was affected by a combination of long and short factors. The core support comes from the Fed's over 70% probability of a September interest - rate cut and geopolitical uncertainties. The main suppression is due to the weak industrial fundamentals, inflation resilience, and limited monetary policy easing space. The long - term trend depends on the energy transition progress, actual interest - rate cut strength, and the repair momentum of the gold - silver ratio. The mid - line strategy is to wait and see [33]. 3.2.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week, the silver contract 2510 was expected to be mainly in high - level volatility, with a lower support range of 8500 - 8800 and an upper pressure range of 9200 - 9500. This week, the same expectation and range are recommended [36][37]. 3.2.3 Relevant Data Situation - There are data charts showing the trends of Shanghai silver futures, COMEX silver futures, SLV Silver ETF holdings, COMEX silver inventory, Shanghai silver basis, and silver internal - external price difference [44][46][48]