Report Overview - Report Title: Gold and Silver Futures Weekly Report (2025.06.09 - 06.13) [2] - Report Scope: Gold and silver futures - Data Sources: Wind, MySteel, Great Wall Futures Trading Consultation Department [17][28][48] 1. Gold Futures 1.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is in an upward channel, possibly near the end of the trend [7] - Trend Logic: Gold is in a "safe - haven + interest rate cut expectation" dual - drive stage. In the short term, beware of market fluctuations due to data and policy changes. In the long - term, factors such as geopolitical risks, de - dollarization, and interest rate cut expectations support the gold price. Monitor the impact of US economic data on monetary policy and the progress of tariff policies [7] - Mid - term Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [8] 1.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: Expected the gold main contract 2508 to fluctuate in the short term, recommended waiting and seeing. The lower support was 738 - 746, and the upper pressure was 800 - 808 [11] - This Week's Strategy Recommendation: Expected the gold main contract 2508 to fluctuate in the short term, recommended waiting and seeing. The lower support is 738 - 746, and the upper pressure is 800 - 808 [12] - AI Diagnosis: The daily trend is in a sideways phase, possibly in the middle of the trend according to historical cycle rules. The main funds show a significant bearish attitude, and the capital energy remains basically stable. The risk of a trend reversal is relatively high [13] 1.3 Relevant Data - Data includes the price trends of Shanghai Gold and COMEX gold, SPDR Gold ETF holdings, COMEX gold inventory, US 10 - year Treasury yields, US dollar index, US dollar against offshore RMB, gold - silver ratio, Shanghai Gold basis, and gold internal - external price difference [19][21][23] 2. Silver Futures 2.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: The overall trend of Shanghai Silver futures is in an upward channel, possibly near the end of the trend [32] - Trend Logic: The recent upward breakthrough of silver is the result of the resonance of four factors: rotation of safe - haven assets, rigid growth of industrial demand, expectation of monetary policy shift, and technical breakthrough. The core driving forces are the structural demand from photovoltaic and new energy vehicles and the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut. Tariff policy concerns and the weakening of the US dollar provide short - term boosts. In the long - term, silver prices are affected by multiple factors such as industrial demand, monetary policy, geopolitics, gold - silver ratio repair, and market sentiment. When allocating silver, pay attention to the development of the global new energy industry, Fed policy trends, geopolitical risks, and changes in the silver supply - demand pattern [32] - Mid - term Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [35] 2.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: Expected the silver contract 2508 to be relatively strong, with the lower support range at 8600 - 8800 [37] - This Week's Strategy Recommendation: Expected the silver contract 2508 to oscillate in a large range, recommended grid trading in the range of 7000 - 8800 [37] - AI Diagnosis: The overall trend is in an upward channel, possibly in the middle of the trend according to historical cycle rules. The main funds show a strong bullish sentiment, with a rapid influx of capital. The risk of a trend reversal is relatively high [38] 2.3 Relevant Data - Data includes the price trends of Shanghai Silver and COMEX silver, SLV Silver ETF holdings, COMEX silver inventory, Shanghai Silver basis, and silver internal - external price difference [43][45][47]

2025.6.9-6.13 电解铝 期货品种周报 中线行情分析 大区间震荡，6月中下旬偏承压。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 6月云南地区电力储备充足，电解铝供应预计仍稳中有增，需求虽有政策宽松 预期升温+中美元首通话释放缓和信号，但暂时对需求提振作用仍有待观察。 2 暂观望为宜。 3 中线策略建议 品种交易策略 n 上周策略回顾 本周美国经济活动放缓叠加国际贸易摩擦风险，铝价短期承压震荡概率较大；铝合金因传统季节性淡季特征逐步显 现并深入，海内外订单均有缩量，导致市场交投整体清淡。 数据来自：WIND、钢联、长城期货交易咨询部 端午前后一周沪铝2507合约看19800-20500区间整理，观望 或短波段交易为宜。 n 本周策略建议 未来一周沪铝2507合约波动区间看19600-20200。 n 现货企业套期保值建议 正常购销即可 【重要产业环节价格变化】 | 项目 | | 上周 | 本周 | 上月同期 | 上年同期 | 周环比 | 月环比 | 年环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铝土矿SI2-3%几内亚（美元/干吨 ...

2025.06.03-06.06 工业硅、碳酸锂 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 工业硅期货 工业硅期货价格维持偏弱走势。 中线趋势判断 1 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 中线行情分析 趋势判断逻辑 2 截至5月29日新疆地区421#价格8900元/吨，云南地区421#价格10100元/吨， 四川地区421#价格10250元/吨。期货盘5月30日工业硅2507收盘价7160元， 现货市场价格也无止跌意向，临近丰水期，部分有小水电的厂家计划进入 复产阶段，大厂复产已落实，预计6月供应会超预期。长城期货AI智能投 询品种诊断报告显示工业硅价格日线处于下行通道中。 工业硅市场供需矛盾依然存在，库存压力大，产量预期增多，建议观望。 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 n 上周策略回顾 维持偏弱走势，建议观望。 n 本周策略建议 维持偏弱走势，建议观望。 相关数据情况 截止至2024年04月19日，上海期货交易所阴极铜库存为300,045吨，较上一周增加322吨。从季节性角度分析，当前库存较近五年相比维持在较高水平。 SHF阴极铜库存走势 SHF阴极铜库存季节性分析 ...

2025.06.03-06.06 黄金、白银 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 沪金期货整体趋势处在上升通道中，当前可能处于趋势尾声。 中线趋势判断 1 黄金期货 趋势判断逻辑 近期，黄金市场受到美国国际贸易法院裁决的影响，加之市场对贸易政 策的不确定性，以及美联储公布的会议纪要揭示了经济前景的高不确定 性，失业率和通胀风险的上升，导致市场避险情绪有所增强。从长远来 看，地缘政治风险的不确定性、全球主要央行转向宽松政策的趋势，以 及去美元化趋势的加速，持续推动央行增加黄金购买需求。这些多重因 素将继续为金价提供支撑。 2 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 中线行情分析 建议观望。 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 n 上周策略回顾 黄金逢低配置黄金看涨期权。黄金主力合约2508下方支撑：768 －772，上方压力810－814。 n 本周策略建议 预期黄金主力合约2508短期震荡反复，建议观望。下方支撑： 738－746，上方压力800－808。 品种诊断情况 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mystee ...

2025.06.03-06.06 纯碱、玻璃 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 纯碱期货 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 中线行情分析 纯碱期货处于震荡阶段。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 上周纯碱价格延续弱势运行。供应方面，整体的开工率呈现小幅上 升，主要原因是前期检修陆续复产，整体供应量维持在较高水平； 需求方面依然偏弱，下游多以低价刚需补货为主，市场观望情绪浓 厚；部分企业为刺激出货采取灵活定价策略。库存方面，受到节前 备货影响，库存存在小幅下降，但整体库存仍然处于高位。近期出 口情绪有所改善，部分企业接单量增加，但整体出口波动不大。 综上所述，纯碱整体供强需弱的格局预计将延续，价格走势预计呈 现震荡运行。 2 建议观望 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 n 上周策略回顾 上周纯碱行业部分企业进入检修，部分前期检修装置恢复， 需求端持续疲软，下游采购以刚性需求为主，供需格局未明 显改善。库存虽小幅下降但整体仍处高位。预计纯碱期货价 格维持震荡偏弱走势。预期纯碱2509运行区间1250-1400，可 考虑空仓观望。 n 本周策略建议 上周纯碱价格弱势运 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For rebar futures, the main contract is expected to operate in the range of 3000 - 2900 this week, and it's recommended to focus on the pressure level at 3000. Steel spot customers can consider a step - by - step selling hedging strategy [7][11]. - For iron ore futures, the main contract is expected to trade in the range of 640 - 770. A grid trading strategy can be considered during the sideways consolidation phase [32][36]. 3. Summary by Directory Rebar Futures 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - The expected operating range of the rebar futures main contract this week is 3000 - 2900, and attention should be paid to the pressure at 3000. Weekly rebar production is 228000 tons, apparent consumption is 245000 tons, major steel mills' inventory is 1.83 million tons, and social inventory is 6.38 million tons. The futures price is in a downward channel on the daily level with significant capital outflows. Steel spot customers can consider a step - by - step selling hedging strategy [7]. 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy: Steel spot customers were advised to consider a step - by - step selling hedging strategy [10]. - This week's strategy: Spot customers can consider a step - by - step selling hedging strategy, with a reference operating range of 3000 - 2900 and attention to the 3000 pressure level. Steel production enterprises can consider a step - by - step selling hedging strategy for 80% of their spot volume [11][12]. 3.3 Relevant Data Situation - The report mentions "Relevant data situation" multiple times but does not provide specific data details in the given content. It only indicates data sources such as Wind, Mysteel, and the Great Wall Futures Trading Consultation Department [42][47]. Iron Ore Futures 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - The iron ore futures main contract is expected to trade in the range of 640 - 770. Last week, global iron ore shipments were 3352000 tons, arrivals at 45 major Chinese ports were 2276000 tons, steel enterprises' inventory was 8.936 million tons, and major domestic port inventory was 13.983 million tons. The daily line of iron ore futures is in a sideways phase, with the main short - selling camp having a slight advantage. A grid trading strategy can be considered during the sideways phase [32]. 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy: The Great Wall Futures AI intelligent data model showed that the iron ore futures were in a sideways consolidation phase on the daily line [35]. - This week's strategy: During the sideways consolidation phase, a grid trading strategy can be considered, with a reference antenna of 770, a ground line of 640, 22 grids, and a grid spacing of 6 [36]. 3.3 Relevant Data Situation - Similar to the rebar futures section, the report mentions "Relevant data situation" multiple times but lacks specific data details. The data sources are Wind, Mysteel, and the Great Wall Futures Trading Consultation Department [42][47].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The mid - term trend of the electrolytic aluminum market is a large - range consolidation. The Fed's potential delay in interest rate cuts in the second half of the year and the tense international situation restrict the upward space of aluminum prices, while the first cut of domestic 1 - year and 5 - year LPR this year supports aluminum prices. The supply - demand relationship remains strong overall, but tariff disturbances are significant, and the market is expected to fluctuate in the near term [4][12]. - The aluminum market is expected to experience a short - term decline followed by a rebound in the first week after the Dragon Boat Festival, but may face pressure around mid - June, with an overall expectation of a fluctuating market [12]. - The domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is approaching the 45 million - ton ceiling, and the annual output growth is limited. The global primary aluminum output growth rate is only 1.9%. The demand in the aluminum industry shows a differentiated pattern among different sectors, and the inventory of electrolytic aluminum is at a historically low level [9][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: The mid - term trend is a large - range consolidation. The Fed's potential delay in interest rate cuts to July and December and the tense international situation restrict the upward space of aluminum prices, while the domestic LPR cut supports prices. The supply - demand relationship is strong overall, but tariff disturbances are large, and the market is expected to fluctuate. It is advisable to maintain the view of consolidation around 20,000, and short - term trading within the range of 19,500 - 20,500 is appropriate [4]. 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: For the SHFE aluminum 2507 contract, maintain the view of consolidation around 20,000, with an expected range of 19,800 - 20,500. It is advisable to wait and see or conduct short - band trading [6]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: For the SHFE aluminum 2507 contract, continue to maintain the view of consolidation around 20,000. It is advisable to wait and see or conduct short - band trading [7]. - **Hedging Suggestion for Spot Enterprises**: It is advisable to purchase and stock up as needed [8]. 3.3 Overall View 3.3.1 Supply - related - **Bauxite Market**: The short - term supply of domestic bauxite will remain tight. The impact of the rainy season in Guinea is gradually emerging, and the bauxite shipment volume from Guinea is expected to decline significantly from June [9]. - **Alumina Market**: As of May 29, the total built - in capacity of national metallurgical alumina is 110.82 million tons/year, and the total operating capacity is 86.67 million tons/year. The weekly national alumina operating rate increased by 0.19 percentage points to 78.21% due to the end of some enterprises' overhauls, but the operating capacity is still at a low level [9]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: In May, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is expected to remain at a high level. The second - batch capacity replacement project of an aluminum plant from Shandong to Yunnan is expected to start in the third quarter, and the first - batch project is expected to achieve output in May. The global primary aluminum output growth rate is only 1.9% [9]. - **Import and Export**: The theoretical loss of electrolytic aluminum imports is about 1,000 yuan/ton, and the order growth due to pre - export rush at the end of May is not obvious [9]. 3.3.2 Demand - related - **Aluminum Profiles**: The national profile operating rate increased by 1 percentage point to 57% this week. The building materials sector is supported by infrastructure project orders in the north, but some small and medium - sized enterprises in the north and south report limited infrastructure orders. The operating rate of photovoltaic frame sample enterprises shows a differentiated pattern [11]. - **Aluminum Plate, Strip and Foil**: The operating rate of leading aluminum plate and strip enterprises remained stable at 67.6%. The operating rate of leading aluminum foil enterprises remained stable at 71.6%. The short - term operating rate of the aluminum foil industry is expected to rise slightly [11]. - **Aluminum Cables and Wires**: The operating rate of leading aluminum cable and wire enterprises remained stable at 64.8%. The follow - up operating rate is expected to remain within a certain range [11]. - **Alloys**: The operating rate of leading primary aluminum alloy enterprises remained stable at 54.6%. The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum enterprises decreased by 1.6 percentage points to 53.0%, and the subsequent operating rate may continue to decline weakly [11]. 3.3.3 Inventory - related - **Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory**: The latest social inventory of aluminum ingots is 509,000 tons, a decrease of about 8% from last week and about 35% lower than the same period last year, at a low level since 2017. The aluminum rod inventory is 126,000 tons, a decrease of about 1% from last week and about 43% lower than the same period last year. The LME electrolytic aluminum inventory has been declining since May 2024 and is currently at a low level since 1990 [11]. 3.3.4 Profit and Market Expectation - **Alumina Profit**: The average cash cost of the Chinese alumina industry is about 2,600 yuan/ton, and the profit is about 700 yuan/ton [12]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Profit**: The average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 17,800 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is about 2,300 yuan/ton [12]. - **Market Expectation**: The social inventory of aluminum ingots is expected to continue to decline, but the trading atmosphere may weaken. The international situation may affect the overseas aluminum price and then the domestic spot aluminum price. Next week, the spot aluminum price is expected to fluctuate, and the trading range of electrolytic aluminum futures is 19,800 - 20,200 yuan/ton [12]. 3.4 Important Industrial Link Price Changes - The prices of some bauxite varieties remained unchanged this week, while the price of alumina in Henan increased by 2.95% week - on - week. The price of ice晶石 increased by 9.11% week - on - week, and the price of the SHFE aluminum main contract decreased by 0.42% week - on - week [13]. 3.5 Important Industrial Link Inventory Changes - Domestic bauxite port inventory has increased for 7 consecutive weeks, and it is expected that the arrival of aluminum ore at ports may decrease from June. Alumina inventory continued to decline slightly. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum and related products such as aluminum ingots and aluminum rods is at a low level, and the LME aluminum inventory continued to decline slightly [15][17]. 3.6 Supply - Demand Situation - For the whole year of 2025, domestic production growth is limited, and the import impact is weakened due to the inverted theoretical import profit. Domestic supply - demand is expected to tighten compared to 2024, but there is a high probability of becoming looser again in the seasonal off - season of June and July [18]. 3.7 Futures - Spot Structure - **SHFE Aluminum Futures Price Curve**: The current SHFE aluminum futures price structure is neutral to strong. Under the situation of low inventory and pre - export rush expectation, the spot price supports the futures price [31]. - **SHFE Aluminum Futures Price Monthly Seasonality**: From the statistical data of the past 10 years, the probability of rise and fall in May and June is relatively balanced. After the Dragon Boat Festival, the market may fluctuate slightly in the first week, but may face pressure around mid - June, with an overall expectation of a fluctuating market [35]. 3.8 Spread Structure - The LME (0 - 3) discount is 5.75 US dollars/ton. The A00 aluminum ingot spot reported a premium of 110 yuan/ton. The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 is about - 2,260 yuan/ton this week [37][42]. 3.9 Market Fund Situation - **LME Aluminum Variety Fund Trends**: The latest net long position remained stable, and both the long and short camps increased their positions. The short - term market may be in a consolidation phase [45]. - **SHFE Electrolytic Aluminum Variety Fund Trends**: The net short position remained stable this week, and both the long and short camps increased their positions, indicating increased market divergence. The short - term direction is not clear, and the market is expected to fluctuate [48].

2025.06.03-06.06 豆粕、豆油 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 豆粕期货 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 n 上周策略回顾 豆粕期价整体趋势横盘阶段,资金方面较为偏多。短期内 M2509预计宽幅震荡整理，运行区间：2850-3000，可考虑区 间操作。 中线趋势来看，豆粕主力处于宽幅震荡的阶段。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 据Mysteel数据：第21周油厂大豆实际压榨量量220.93万吨，开机率为 62.1%；大豆库存560.63万吨，较上周减少26.20万吨，减幅4.46%；豆粕 库存20.69万吨，较上周增加8.52万吨，增幅70.01%。进口大豆集中到港， 油厂开机率快速攀升，压榨量维持高位，豆粕库存累积速度加快。终端 饲料企业多执行前期基差合同，随用随采的谨慎策略抑制现货成交。巴 西大豆出口销售压力缓解带动贴水企稳，叠加美豆生长季潜在的天气变 化及全球贸易的不确定性。综合来看豆粕期价处于宽幅震荡整理阶段。 2 建议观望。 3 中线策略建议 中线行情分析 品种交易策略 n 本周策略建议 豆粕期价整体趋势横盘阶段,资金方面略微偏空 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "Soda Ash, Glass Futures Weekly Report" [2] - Report Period: May 26 - May 30, 2025 [1] Group 2: Soda Ash Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: Soda ash futures are in a volatile phase. The overall supply - demand pattern has not improved significantly, with supply still in excess. The price is expected to remain volatile and weak, and the overall trend is expected to be volatile [7]. - Trend Logic: Last week, the operating load of the soda ash industry decreased, and some enterprises entered maintenance, while some previously maintained devices resumed operation. The industry operating rate remained around 80%. The demand side was continuously weak, and downstream enterprises mainly had rigid demand. The inventory, although slightly decreased, was still at a high level [7]. - Mid - term Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [7]. 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: Due to enterprise maintenance, supply decreased last week, and the spot price was stable with the support of enterprise backlogs. Demand was stable, downstream restocked as needed, consumption and operation were stable, export sentiment improved, and some enterprises' order volumes increased. A 500 - ton production line of float glass was planned to be ignited, and photovoltaic remained stable. It was expected that SA2509 would operate in the range of 1250 - 1400, and it was advisable to wait and see with an empty position [10]. - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: Some soda ash enterprises entered maintenance last week, and some previously maintained devices resumed operation. The demand side was continuously weak, and the supply - demand pattern did not improve significantly. The inventory was still at a high level. It was expected that the soda ash futures price would remain volatile and weak. SA2509 was expected to operate in the range of 1250 - 1400, and it was advisable to wait and see with an empty position [11]. 3. Relevant Data - Data Included: Soda ash operating rate (weekly in China), production (weekly in China), light and heavy - quality inventory (weekly in China), basis (daily), and ammonia - soda production cost in North China (weekly) [12][16][18] - Market Indicators: The long - short flow was - 52.3, indicating a bearish tendency of the main force; the capital energy was 90.5, indicating a rapid influx of main - force funds; the long - short divergence was 91.3, suggesting a high risk of market reversal [22] Group 3: Glass Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: Glass is in a volatile trend. The supply - demand fundamentals of weak supply and demand are difficult to change in the short term, and it is expected to fluctuate this week [30]. - Trend Logic: Last week, float glass showed a weak and volatile trend. The prices in South China and Northwest China remained stable, while prices in other regions generally decreased. The supply was relatively stable, but the terminal demand was weak, and processing enterprises mainly purchased as needed. The demand for architectural glass was weak, and although the deep - processing orders improved slightly month - on - month, they were still weak year - on - year [30]. - Mid - term Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see with an empty position [30]. 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: The spot price of domestic float glass decreased last week, with regional differentiation. Most prices declined due to weak transactions, and a few increased due to reduced production. There was a production line ignition this week, and new production capacity was released, so production might increase. Downstream orders were differentiated, and purchases were mainly based on rigid demand. The inventory of original sheets was at a high level in the same period, and enterprises mainly aimed to reduce inventory. It was expected that glass would fluctuate this week, and FG2509 was expected to operate in the range of 1000 - 1200. It was advisable to wait and see with an empty position [33]. - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: Float glass showed a weak and volatile trend last week. The prices in South China and Northwest China remained stable, while prices in other regions generally decreased. The supply was stable, but the terminal demand was weak, and processing enterprises purchased as needed. The demand for architectural glass was weak, and although the deep - processing orders improved slightly month - on - month, they were still weak year - on - year. The supply - demand fundamentals of weak supply and demand were difficult to change in the short term. It was expected that glass would fluctuate this week, and FG2509 was expected to operate in the range of 1000 - 1200. It was advisable to wait and see with an empty position [34]. 3. Relevant Data - Data Included: Float glass production (weekly in China), operating rate (weekly in China), production cost and gross profit of the float process using natural gas as fuel (weekly in China), basis (daily), and ending inventory (weekly in China) [35][41][43] - Market Indicators: The long - short flow was - 17.3, indicating an unclear tendency of the main force; the capital energy was 52.9, indicating a relatively large inflow of funds; the long - short divergence was 95.8, suggesting a high risk of market reversal [48]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The aluminum market is expected to experience large - range oscillations, with a relatively strong oscillation trend from late May to early June. The low inventory during the off - season and the expectation of rush - to - export continue to support the aluminum price, but the off - season characteristics of terminal operating rates are obvious, and the hype about the Guinea mining rights theme has cooled down. The resistance above 20,500 is still significant, and the aluminum price is expected to oscillate strongly at high levels. The Shanghai Aluminum 2507 contract is expected to trade in the range of 19,800 - 20,500 during the week around the Dragon Boat Festival, and it is advisable to wait and see or conduct short - band trading [5][12]. Summary by Related Catalogs Mid - term Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: The aluminum market is in a large - range oscillation, and it should be treated as a relatively strong oscillation from late May to early June. The low inventory during the off - season and the expectation of rush - to - export support the aluminum price, but the resistance above 20,500 is large, and it is recommended to hold a moderate amount of long positions [5]. Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: It was believed that the Shanghai Aluminum 2507 contract would continue to consolidate around 20,000, with an expected range of 19,800 - 20,500. It was advisable to wait and see or conduct short - band trading [7]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The Shanghai Aluminum 2507 contract is expected to trade in the range of 19,800 - 20,500 during the week around the Dragon Boat Festival. It is advisable to wait and see or conduct short - band trading [8]. - **Suggestion for Spot Enterprises' Hedging**: Spot enterprises can consider making appropriate purchases at low prices [9]. Overall View Supply Side - **Bauxite Market**: The supply of domestic ore is expected to change little in the short term and remains tight. Although the import volume of bauxite reached a record high in April, some suppliers declared force majeure, which may affect imports after June [10]. - **Alumina Market**: As of May 22, China's alumina production capacity was 112.2 million tons, with an operating capacity of 86.35 million tons and an operating rate of 76.96%. The supply change is limited, and the spot is still in short supply. The profit margin has recovered, and enterprises' production willingness has increased. The price of domestic alumina futures is expected to be between 3,000 - 3,400 yuan/ton next week [10]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: As of May 22, the theoretical operating capacity of the domestic electrolytic aluminum industry was 43.865 million tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from the previous week. The global primary aluminum production growth rate is only 1.9%, and the room for further production increase this year is limited [10]. Demand Side - **Aluminum Profiles**: The national profile operating rate decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 56% this week, with significant regional differentiation in the building materials sector. The operating rate is expected to decline slightly in the short term [11]. - **Aluminum Sheets, Strips, and Foil**: The operating rate of leading aluminum sheet and strip enterprises increased by 0.4 percentage points to 67.6%. The export of terminal aluminum products has recovered, but it is still difficult to offset the seasonal decline in domestic consumption. The operating rate of aluminum foil leading enterprises decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 70.6%, and the industry is in the traditional off - season. The operating rate is expected to decline [11]. - **Aluminum Cables**: The operating rate of leading domestic aluminum cable enterprises decreased slightly by 0.4 percentage points to 64.8%, and it is expected to remain stable [11]. - **Alloys**: The operating rate of leading primary aluminum alloy enterprises remained stable at 54.6%, and it is expected to remain stable but weak. The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum enterprises decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 54.6%, and the terminal demand is weak. The operating rate is expected to continue to decline [11]. Inventory - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The latest social inventory of aluminum ingots is 556,000 tons, a decrease of about 4% from the previous week and about 28% lower than the same period last year, reaching the lowest level since 2017. The social inventory of aluminum rods is 127,000 tons, a decrease of about 2% from the previous week and about 35% lower than the same period last year. The LME electrolytic aluminum inventory has been declining slightly since May 2024 and is currently at the lowest level since 1990 [11]. Profit - **Alumina Profit**: The average cash cost of the Chinese alumina industry is about 2,600 yuan/ton, and the profit is about 600 yuan/ton, up from about 450 yuan/ton last week [12]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Profit**: The average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 17,700 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is about 2,600 yuan/ton, down from 2,900 yuan/ton last week [12]. Market Expectation - There are no significant positive or negative factors in the macro - level next week. The supply side is stable, and the "rush - to - export" will continue to support demand. However, if the alumina price drops from a high level, the Shanghai Aluminum price may fall below 20,000. It is difficult to break through the upper limit of the 20,300 range [12]. Important Industry Link Price Changes - The price of Guinea bauxite increased slightly due to the willingness of mainstream mines to support prices. The coal market is weak, and the alumina price rose first and then fell, experiencing profit - taking [13]. Important Industry Link Inventory Changes - The domestic bauxite port inventory has increased for 6 consecutive weeks, and the alumina inventory has decreased slightly. The social inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods is at a low level, and the LME aluminum inventory continues to decline [15][16]. Supply - Demand Situation - The average cash cost of the domestic alumina industry is about 2,620 yuan/ton, and the profit is about 600 yuan/ton. The production cost of electrolytic aluminum is about 17,700 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is about 2,600 yuan/ton. The theoretical import loss of electrolytic aluminum is about 1,100 yuan/ton [18]. - The operating rate of domestic aluminum processing downstream leading enterprises decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 61.4% this week, and it is expected to decline slightly next week [24][25]. Futures - Spot Structure - The current Shanghai Aluminum futures price structure is still neutral and relatively strong. The low inventory and the possible rush - to - export in China support the spot price against the futures price [29]. - Based on the past 10 - year statistical data, the probability of rise and fall in May and June is relatively balanced. Shanghai Aluminum is currently running close to the high - price range of the past 10 years, and it may continue to oscillate in the next week, with possible adjustments after the Dragon Boat Festival [34]. Spread Structure - The LME (0 - 3) is at a discount of $6.6/ton, and the A00 aluminum ingot spot is at a premium of 80 yuan/ton. The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 is about - 2,490 yuan/ton, and the spread between primary aluminum and alloy is at a relatively low level in recent years, which supports the electrolytic aluminum price [36][41][42]. Market Capital Situation - The net long position of the LME aluminum variety has continued to rise in the recent three weeks, and the short - term market may continue to rebound slightly. The net long position of the Shanghai Futures Exchange electrolytic aluminum variety has turned to a slight net short position this week, and the short - term may still have a slight adjustment [44][47].