2025.12.15-12.19 豆粕、豆油 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 豆粕期货 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 中线趋势来看，豆粕主力处于震荡的阶段。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 据Mysteel数据：第49周油厂大豆实际压榨量205.58万吨，开机率为 56.55%，豆粕库存116.19万吨。近期国内大豆到港量下降，油厂开机率 回落，部分企业因原料衔接或库存压力停机，令近月供应呈现收紧预期， 对现货价格构成支撑。但豆粕库存同比仍处高位，且南美丰产预期不断 强化，远期供应格局趋于宽松。同时养殖持续亏损制约饲料消费恢复力 度。多空因素交织下，预计豆粕期货价格将处于震荡走势。 2 关注库存去化进度，南美天气，养殖需求。 中线策略建议 3 中线行情分析 品种交易策略 上周策略回顾 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 品种诊断情况 | 豆粕(m) v < | | --- | | 品种诊断 机构观点 盈利席位 主力资金 : | | 多空流向： 71.3 图 图 图 主力较为偏多 | | 资金能量： -33.4 ■ ■ ■ 主力 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Gold, Silver Futures Weekly Report [2] - Date Range: December 15 - 19, 2025 [1] Group 2: Gold Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: The Shanghai Gold futures are in a sideways stage and may be at the beginning of a new trend [7] - Trend Logic: Last week, the main contract 2602 first declined and then rose, breaking through strongly and closing at a recent high. This was due to the Fed's strengthened rate - cut expectations, a weaker US dollar, and large inflows of funds and institutional positions. However, short - term gains are large, and there is a risk of correction due to profit - taking [7] - Mid - term Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [8] 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: The Shanghai Gold contract 2602 was expected to continue high - level consolidation in the short term. The upper pressure level was 960 - 970 yuan/gram, and the lower support level was 920 - 930 yuan/gram. It was recommended to wait and see [10] - This Week's Strategy: The Shanghai Gold contract 2602 is cautiously bullish. The upper pressure level is 985 - 1000 yuan/gram, and the lower support level is 935 - 950 yuan/gram. It is recommended to buy on dips [11] 3. Relevant Data - Data includes Shanghai Gold price trends, COMEX gold price trends, SPDR gold ETF holdings, COMEX gold inventories, US 10 - year Treasury yields, US dollar index, US dollar against offshore RMB, gold - silver ratio, Shanghai Gold basis, and gold internal - external price difference [18][20][22] Group 3: Silver Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: The Shanghai Silver futures are in a strong upward stage and are currently at the end of the trend [30] - Trend Logic: Last week, the Shanghai Silver 2602 hit a new record high. The market was driven by the Fed's rate - cut, a weaker US dollar, and the breakthrough of international silver prices. The squeeze - out risk caused by low global inventories further pushed up prices. Although domestic inventories increased, the structural contradiction was not alleviated. The short - term impact of the margin increase and price limit expansion by the Shanghai Futures Exchange was limited, but prices are significantly overbought, and there are risks of increased high - level volatility and policy regulation [30] - Mid - term Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [31] 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: The silver contract 2602 was expected to strengthen in short - term consolidation. The upper pressure level was 13,500 - 14,000 yuan/kilogram, and the lower support level was 12,500 - 13,000 yuan/kilogram. It was recommended to buy on dips [34] - This Week's Strategy: The silver contract 2602 will operate strongly at high levels. The upper pressure level is 14,500 - 15,000 yuan/kilogram, and the lower support level is 13,500 - 14,000 yuan/kilogram. It is recommended to buy on dips [35] 3. Relevant Data - Data includes Shanghai Silver price trends, COMEX silver price trends, SLV silver ETF holdings, COMEX silver inventories, Shanghai Silver basis, and silver internal - external price difference [42][44][46]

目录 中线行情分析 2025.12.15-12.19 工业硅、碳酸锂 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 工业硅期货 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 工业硅期货目前处于震荡偏弱运行。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 2 上周工业硅现货价格维稳，截至12月12日新疆地区421#价格9050元/吨， 云南地区421#价格9900元/吨，四川地区421#价格10000元/吨。长城期货 AI智能投询品种诊断报告显示工业硅价格日线处在下行通道中。资金方面， 主力空头阵营略占优势。 工业硅震荡偏弱运行，观望为主。 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 上周策略回顾 工业硅大区间运行，观望为主。 本周策略建议 工业硅2605合约8,000–9,500元/吨区间震荡。 相关数据情况 截止至2024年04月19日，上海期货交易所阴极铜库存为300,045吨，较上一周增加322吨。从季节性角度分析，当前库存较近五年相比维持在较高水平。 SHF阴极铜库存走势 SHF阴极铜库存季节性分析 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 相关数据情况 截止至2024年04月19日， ...

Report Title - Electrolytic Aluminum Futures Weekly Report [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The electrolytic aluminum market is expected to oscillate strongly, with potential high-level oscillations at the end of December. The mid- to long-term outlook remains bullish due to rigid supply, resilient demand with an optimistic outlook, historically low inventory levels, and the Fed's interest rate cut cycle. However, the ample supply of bauxite and the off-season demand at the end of the year limit the upside potential. The strategy is to hold long positions and wait for price increases [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Mid-line Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: The market is expected to oscillate strongly, with potential high-level oscillations at the end of December. The mid- to long-term outlook remains bullish, but the ample supply of bauxite and the off-season demand at the end of the year limit the upside potential [5]. - **Trend Judgment Logic**: Rigid supply, resilient demand with an optimistic outlook, historically low inventory levels, and the Fed's interest rate cut cycle support the bullish outlook [5]. - **Mid-line Strategy Suggestion**: Hold long positions and wait for price increases [5]. Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: Short-term long positions were advised to exit and wait, while mid-term long positions were recommended to be held [8]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: Hold sufficient spot inventory [8]. - **Hedging Suggestion for Spot Enterprises**: Not provided Overall Viewpoint - **Bauxite Market**: Guinea Shunda Mining will resume shipments on December 13, and the supply from Guinea will increase, leading to a significant increase in domestic imported bauxite [9]. - **Alumina Market**: As of December 12, the domestic alumina production capacity was about 112.55 million tons, with an operating capacity of about 96.1 million tons (96.5 million tons last week) and a capacity utilization rate of about 86.11%. In 2026, new alumina production capacity of about 14.4 million tons/year is expected to be put into operation, mainly in the first half of the year and concentrated in the southwest and northern coastal regions. The current high inventory of spot and the new production capacity in the first quarter of 2026 pose challenges to the alumina supply-demand balance. However, the requirements of the Central Economic Work Conference in mid-December regarding anti-involution and the implementation of the comprehensive management plan for red mud in Shandong have alleviated the market's pessimistic expectations to some extent [9]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: In November, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity was about 45.9165 million tons, with an operating capacity of about 44.6393 million tons, both slightly higher than the previous month. The molten aluminum ratio was about 73.38% (74% last month), a recent high. The domestic supply is under rigid constraints, and overseas electrolytic aluminum plants in Europe and the United States are severely restricted by carbon taxes and high electricity prices, while new projects in countries such as India and Indonesia are progressing slowly due to power supply issues. The global aluminum supply elasticity has almost disappeared [9]. - **Import and Export**: The theoretical loss of electrolytic aluminum imports is currently about 1,700 yuan/ton, the same as last week. According to customs data, the export volume of unforged aluminum and aluminum products in October was about 570,000 tons, showing a rebound from October and remaining at a relatively high level in recent years [9]. - **Demand - Aluminum Profiles**: The domestic aluminum profile operating rate increased by 1 percentage point to 53% this week. The construction profile market remains sluggish, while orders for new energy vehicle profiles remain stable. Overall, the high aluminum price has a certain suppressing effect on downstream consumption, and the domestic aluminum profile operating rate is expected to continue to operate weakly in the short term [10]. - **Demand - Aluminum Sheets, Strips, and Foils**: The operating rate of leading aluminum sheet and strip enterprises remained stable at 65%. The environmental protection restrictions in the Central Plains region are still severe, and it is expected that the operating conditions will not improve before New Year's Day. The operating rate of leading aluminum foil enterprises remained stable at 70.4%. The traditional consumption sectors are facing difficulties, and there is a lack of strong upward momentum in the short term [10]. - **Demand - Aluminum Cables**: The weekly operating rate of aluminum cables remained stable at 62.4%. The high aluminum price and the end-of-year inventory replenishment sentiment have suppressed the downstream operating enthusiasm, and the orders have not increased significantly. It is expected that the operating rate of aluminum cables will remain weak in December [10]. - **Demand - Alloys**: The operating rate of the primary aluminum alloy industry decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 60% this week, ending the previous upward trend. The market is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the operating rate is expected to decline further under the pressure of high aluminum prices. The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum enterprises decreased by 1.8 percentage points to 59.8% this week. With the lifting of environmental protection controls in Chongqing next week, the operating rate of the recycled aluminum industry is expected to gradually recover, but the recovery is expected to be limited due to the tight raw material supply and insufficient demand support [10]. - **Inventory - Electrolytic Aluminum**: The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 583,000 tons, a decrease of about 2% from last week and an increase of about 4% from the same period last year, at a relatively low level in the middle axis of inventory since 2023. Since August, the electrolytic aluminum inventory has gradually shifted from electrolytic aluminum plants to downstream inventories, and both the electrolytic aluminum and social visible inventories are currently at relatively low levels in recent years, while the export volume is at a relatively high level. The inventory of aluminum rods was 113,700 tons, a decrease of about 6% from last week and an increase of about 24% from the same period last year. The LME aluminum inventory decreased slightly by about 2% from last week and was about 23% lower than the same period last year, remaining at a relatively low level in recent years [10]. - **Alumina Profit**: The average full cost of the Chinese alumina industry in the past month was about 2,780 yuan/ton, with a theoretical spot profit of about 0 yuan/ton and a theoretical profit of about -300 yuan/ton for the futures main contract [11]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Profit**: The current average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 17,000 yuan/ton, with a theoretical profit of about 4,900 yuan/ton (the same as last week). The profit is at a relatively high level [11]. - **Market Expectation**: In the first quarter of 2026, the aluminum ingot premium at Japan's MJP (major ports) is expected to rise from the low of 86 US dollars/ton in the fourth quarter of 2025. The core logic is the tightening of Asian supply due to the reconstruction of the global aluminum trade flow, combined with the catalysis of European carbon policies and structural demand support. The latest offers from leading smelters have already confirmed the upward trend, but the inventory replenishment constraints at the end of Japan's fiscal year may limit the rebound amplitude [11]. - **Our View**: The mid- to long-term outlook remains bullish, and attention should be paid to opportunities to build long positions on pullbacks [11]. - **Key Concerns**: 1. Political changes in Guinea. 2. The impact of the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike on December 19 on the market's macro sentiment [11]. - **Direction**: The market is expected to oscillate strongly, with potential high-level oscillations at the end of the year [11]. Important Industrial Link Price Changes - The prices of various aluminum-related products, including bauxite, alumina, power coal, prebaked anodes, cryolite, domestic electrolytic aluminum production costs, Shanghai Aluminum main contract closing prices, electrolytic aluminum A00 in Foshan, aluminum alloy ingots ADC12 in Guangdong, aluminum rods 6063 in Foshan, and scrap aluminum in Guangzhou, are provided, along with their price changes compared to last week, last month, and the same period last year [12]. - The price of imported bauxite from Guinea continues to face pressure, and the prices of alumina and power coal have also changed. The price of alumina rebounded at the end of the week, mainly due to anti-involution and the expected reduction in supply from the comprehensive management plan for red mud in Shandong [12]. Important Industrial Link Inventory Changes - The inventory changes of various aluminum-related products, including bauxite (imported) port inventory, China's alumina inventory, 7-city electrolytic aluminum social inventory, aluminum rod (6063) inventory, Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum inventory (total), Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum remaining available storage capacity, LME aluminum inventory, and LME aluminum cancelled warehouse receipts, are provided, along with their inventory changes compared to last week, last month, and the same period last year [13][14]. - The domestic port bauxite inventory has been declining slightly since the end of November, and the inventory depletion is expected to continue in December. However, with the resumption of production at some mines in Guinea, the arrival pressure will be high next year, and the domestic bauxite supply is abundant. The alumina inventory has been accumulating since the end of May and is currently at a relatively high level. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants and in-transit alumina has continued to accumulate this week, while the port inventory has remained relatively stable at a low level, and the inventory of alumina plants has decreased slightly since November. The domestic mainstream consumption area electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory is at a relatively low level in the middle axis of inventory since 2023, and both the electrolytic aluminum and social visible inventories are currently at relatively low levels in recent years, while the export volume is at a relatively high level. The LME aluminum inventory is also at a relatively low level in recent years [16][17]. Supply and Demand Situation - The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 61.8% this week, continuing the off-season trend [24]. - The primary aluminum alloy market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The production activities of aluminum cables at the end of the year are mainly focused on fulfilling basic demand. The short-term concentrated delivery of industrial materials such as photovoltaic frames, but the construction material market remains sluggish. The operating rate of aluminum foil remains stable. The operating rate of recycled aluminum has declined significantly due to environmental protection warnings in Chongqing and high costs eroding profits [24]. - Overall, the demand side of aluminum processing lacks strong growth points, and the operating rate is expected to remain low and oscillate in the short term [25]. Futures-Spot Structure - The Shanghai Aluminum futures market currently shows a contango structure, with the far-month prices higher than the near-month prices. Although the market declined on Friday, the structure and the market trend remain unchanged [28]. Spread Structure - The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 this week was about -1,760 yuan/ton, compared to -1,730 yuan/ton before the holiday [36]. - The current spread between primary aluminum and alloys is at a relatively high level in recent years, and its impact on electrolytic aluminum is neutral to weak [37]. Market Capital Situation - **LME Aluminum**: The net long position of the LME aluminum variety is near the high level since April 2022. The latest fund net long position has increased slightly. Since November, the long camp has remained stable, while the short camp has actively built positions. Overall, the overseas capital side is still dominated by the long side, but the net long position is at a relatively low level in recent years, and there may be a large amount of profit-taking, which may lead to repeated market movements at high levels [39]. - **Shanghai Futures Exchange Electrolytic Aluminum**: Since mid-November, the net long position of the Shanghai Futures Exchange electrolytic aluminum variety has shown a downward trend, with both the long and short sides increasing their positions. The net long position of funds with a financial speculation background has rebounded slightly, but the camp is relatively divided. The funds with a background of mid- and downstream enterprises have slightly increased their net long positions. Overall, the main funds seem to be relatively cautious about the recent upward trend [42].

2025.12.08-12.12 豆粕、豆油 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 豆粕期货 目录 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 Contents 中线趋势来看，豆粕主力处于宽幅震荡的阶段。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 据Mysteel数据：第48周油厂大豆实际压榨量220.08万吨，开机率为 60.54%，豆粕库存120.32万吨。国内油厂大豆与豆粕库存高企，而终端 需求受制于下游养殖业的普遍亏损，饲料消费增长乏力。叠加南美丰产 预期，共同构成价格上行压力。然而，市场对一季度供应不确定性存在 担忧，加之成本端带来底部支撑。综合来看，中线趋势预计豆粕价格将 处于宽幅震荡阶段。 2 关注库存去化进度，南美天气，养殖需求。 中线策略建议 3 中线行情分析 品种交易策略 上周策略回顾 豆粕期价整体趋势处于横盘阶段,资金方面倾向不明显。M2601 短期内预计处于震荡阶段，预计运行区间：2980-3100。 本周策略建议 豆粕期价整体趋势处于横盘阶段,资金方面略微偏空。M2605短 期内预计处于震荡偏弱阶段，预计运行区间：2780-2880。 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall trend of Shanghai gold futures is in an upward channel, currently possibly at the end of the trend, and it's recommended to wait and see [7][8] - The overall trend of Shanghai silver futures is in a strong upward phase, currently at the end of the trend, and it's recommended to wait and see [30][31] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold Futures 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - The Shanghai gold futures contract 2602 oscillated and consolidated this week, supported by the strengthened expectation of the Federal Reserve's interest - rate cut and the weakening US dollar, with prices fluctuating between 953 - 968 yuan. Although the decline in open interest shows short - term capital caution, the medium - term upward trend remains unchanged. The market should focus on the Federal Reserve's December interest - rate meeting and inflation data. If clear easing signals are released, the gold price may break through the upper limit of the range. In the long - term, central bank gold purchases and hedging demand will still provide allocation support. It's recommended to wait and see [7][8] 3.2 Variety Trading Strategies - **Last week's strategy review**: The Shanghai gold contract 2602 may continue to oscillate at high levels in the short term, with an upper pressure level of 960 - 970 yuan/gram and a lower support level of 930 - 940 yuan/gram. It was recommended to wait and see [10] - **This week's strategy suggestion**: The Shanghai gold contract 2602 may continue to oscillate at high levels in the short term, with an upper pressure level of 960 - 970 yuan/gram and a lower support level of 920 - 930 yuan/gram. It's recommended to wait and see [11] 3.3 Relevant Data Situations - The report presents multiple data charts, including the price trends of Shanghai gold and COMEX gold, SPDR gold ETF holdings, COMEX gold inventory, US 10 - year Treasury bond yields, US dollar index, US dollar against offshore RMB, gold - silver ratio, Shanghai gold basis, and gold internal - external price difference [18][20][22] Silver Futures 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - Shanghai silver futures are in a strong upward phase, currently at the end of the trend. Last week, the silver price entered a high - level oscillation. Strengthened expectations of the Federal Reserve's December interest - rate cut and the weakening US dollar provided a valuation basis. In the short term, after reaching a new high, technical correction pressure and long - position profit - taking led to increased volatility, and correction risks should be watched out for. In the medium term, the global supply - demand structural gap and industrial demand growth will still provide a basis for its bull market pattern. It's recommended to wait and see [30][31] 3.2 Variety Trading Strategies - **Last week's strategy review**: The silver contract 2602 strengthened in the short - term oscillation, with an upper pressure level of 12,500 - 13,000 yuan/kg and a lower support level of 11,500 - 12,000 yuan/kg. It was recommended to buy on dips [34] - **This week's strategy suggestion**: The silver contract 2602 strengthens in the short - term oscillation, with an upper pressure level of 13,500 - 14,000 yuan/kg and a lower support level of 12,500 - 13,000 yuan/kg. It's recommended to buy on dips [35] 3.3 Relevant Data Situations - The report presents multiple data charts, including the price trends of Shanghai silver and COMEX silver, SLV silver ETF holdings, COMEX silver inventory, Shanghai silver basis, and silver internal - external price difference [43][45][47]

2025.12.08-12.12 螺纹钢、铁矿石 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 螺纹钢期货 01 中线行情分析 目录 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 Contents 中线行情分析 根据长城期货AI智能大数据量化策略模型综合分析，螺纹钢期货主 力合约运行于2882至3330的横盘整理区间。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 螺纹钢周度产量189万吨，表观消费量216万吨，主要钢厂库存142万 吨，社会库存548万吨。长城期货AI智能投询品种诊断报告显示螺纹钢 期货主力合约运行于横盘整理区间。 2 整理阶段可考虑网格交易策略，系统策略建议：天线3330，地线 2882，网格间距32，网格数量14。 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 上周策略回顾 螺纹钢期货主力合约进入震荡整理区间。 本周策略建议 相关数据情况 根据长城期货AI智能大数据量化策略模型，螺纹钢期货主力 合约进入横盘整理区间，可考虑实施大网格交易策略。 现货企业套期保值建议 整理阶段建议观望等待新一轮中线趋势明朗。 相关数据情况 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a rating of "Bullish and volatile" for the electrolytic aluminum industry [3][10] Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the Fed's December interest rate cut next week, the market may experience a slight correction. However, supported by factors such as the severe lack of global supply elasticity, the expectation of energy storage metal themes, historically low inventories, and a historically low aluminum - copper price ratio, the bullish pattern of aluminum prices is expected to continue [4][10] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety Trading Strategies - Short - term: Due to increased volatility, it is advisable to hold a small long position. Last week's short - term long positions were advised to exit and wait and see, while medium - term long positions should continue to be held. This week, it is recommended to hold a sufficient inventory of spot goods. For spot enterprises, hedging is recommended [7] Overall View Aluminum Ore Market - The复产 process of suspended mines in Guinea is progressing steadily, and the shipping plans of new mines are going smoothly. The overall supply will increase steadily. This week, due to the deepening losses of alumina producers, hesitant procurement led to a decline in imported ore prices. However, all spot goods for sale in December have been sold, and the sea - floating spot market is tightening [8] Alumina Market - As of December 6, the domestic alumina production capacity was about 112.55 million tons, with an operating capacity of about 96.5 million tons (97.4 million tons last week), and a capacity utilization rate of about 86.2%. In 2026, new alumina production capacity of about 14.4 million tons/year is expected to be put into operation, mainly in the first half of the year and concentrated in the southwest and northern coastal areas. The alumina supply - demand contradiction remains severe due to high spot inventories and new production capacity coming online in the first quarter of next year [8] Production: Electrolytic Aluminum - In October, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity was about 45.7165 million tons, with an operating capacity of about 44.5593 million tons, and the aluminum water ratio was about 74%, a recent high. At the end of the year, domestic electrolytic aluminum smelting profits were substantial, and supply increased steadily. However, domestic supply is rigidly constrained, and electrolytic aluminum plants in Europe and the United States have frequently cut production due to high electricity prices. New projects in countries such as India and Indonesia have also progressed slowly due to power - matching issues, resulting in almost zero global aluminum supply elasticity [8] Import and Export - Currently, the theoretical loss of electrolytic aluminum imports is about 1,700 yuan/ton (about 1,900 yuan/ton last week). In October, the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was about 503,000 tons, a decline from September, and overall at the average level in recent years [8] Demand - **Aluminum Profiles**: This week, the domestic aluminum profile industry's operating rate decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 52% compared with last week, mainly affected by the decline in photovoltaic orders. The construction profile market remains sluggish, and the downstream component production of photovoltaic profiles has decreased. The automotive, energy storage, and other industrial profile sectors are operating relatively stably [9] - **Aluminum Sheets, Strips, and Foil**: This week, the operating rate of leading aluminum sheet and strip enterprises decreased by 1.4 percentage points to 65.0%. The consumption off - season is deepening, and with environmental protection controls and the risk of rising aluminum prices, the order volume lacks strong support, and the industry's operating rate will continue to decline. The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum enterprises remained stable at 61.5%. In the short term, leading enterprises are expected to maintain high production, but small and medium - sized production capacities may continue to shrink, and industry structural differentiation may continue [9] - **Aluminum Cables**: This week, the weekly operating rate of aluminum cables decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 62.4%. Domestic enterprises are restricted by the high - level oscillation of aluminum prices, weakening end - of - year inventory - building willingness, and non - significant order volume growth. It is expected that the operating rate of aluminum cables in December will continue to be weak [9] - **Alloys**: This week, the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy remained stable at 60.2%. The market currently shows stable supply and slow demand. In a high - aluminum - price environment, downstream buyers are more rational. The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum enterprises remained stable at 61.5%. In the short term, leading enterprises are expected to maintain high production, but small and medium - sized production capacities may continue to shrink, and industry structural differentiation may continue [9] Inventory: Electrolytic Aluminum - The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 595,000 tons, remaining stable for two consecutive weeks, about 9% higher than the same period last year, and at a relatively low level in the mid - axis of inventory since 2023. The in - plant inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants is at a recent low, and the outbound volume has increased since mid - November. The aluminum rod inventory was 120,900 tons, a decrease of about 3% from last week and about 29% higher than the same period last year. The LME aluminum inventory decreased slightly by about 2% from last week and about 23% from last year, still at a low level in recent years [9] Profit - **Alumina Profit**: In the past month, the average full cost of the domestic alumina industry was about 2,800 yuan/ton, the theoretical spot profit was about 30 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit of the futures main contract was about - 250 yuan/ton [10] - **Electrolytic Aluminum Profit**: Currently, the average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 17,050 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is about 4,900 yuan/ton (4,400 yuan/ton last week), with profits at a relatively high level [10] Market Expectation - The Shanghai aluminum futures will continue to trade at a high level next week, but the room for further upward movement is limited, and there is also a risk of correction. On one hand, the support from the cost side (such as coal and alumina) is weakening; on the other hand, there is a risk of "good news being exhausted" regarding the results of the Fed's interest - rate meeting, which the market is focusing on [10] Important Industrial Link Price Changes - The prices of various aluminum - related products have changed to different degrees, with some rising and some falling. For example, the price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract increased by 3.40% week - on - week, while the price of动力煤 decreased by 4.01% week - on - week [11] Important Industrial Link Inventory Changes - The inventory of various aluminum - related products has also changed. For example, the port inventory of imported aluminum ore decreased by 0.57% week - on - week, while the inventory of electrolytic aluminum in the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 7.20% week - on - week [13] Supply - Demand Situation - It is expected that the domestic supply - demand situation in 2025 will be tighter than in 2024. In the fourth quarter, the domestic aluminum consumption structure will show a differentiated pattern, with the automotive and power sectors being the main driving forces, photovoltaic running stably, and the real estate sector having a certain negative impact. Mysteel predicts that the apparent consumption in the fourth quarter will be about 11.813 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.1%, with the growth rate expanding compared with the third quarter [17] Domestic Alumina Monthly Balance Sheet - The alumina market has different levels of surplus or deficit in different months. For example, in January 2025, the surplus was 304,600 tons, while in April, there was a deficit of 110,300 tons [19] Domestic Aluminum Industry Important Link Profit Situation - In the past month, the domestic alumina industry's full cost was about 2,800 yuan/ton, the theoretical spot profit was about 30 yuan/ton, the futures main contract had a loss of about 250 yuan/ton, and the theoretical import profit was about 50 yuan/ton. The electrolytic aluminum production cost was about 17,050 yuan/ton, the theoretical profit was about 4,900 yuan/ton, and the theoretical import loss was about 1,700 yuan/ton [21] Supply - Demand Situation - This week, the operating rate of leading domestic aluminum downstream processing enterprises decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 61.9%, and the market continued to show structural differentiation. With the deepening of the consumption off - season and the suppression of high aluminum prices, the operating rate is expected to remain weak [27] Futures - Spot Structure - The current Shanghai aluminum futures show a normal market structure with higher prices in the far - term and lower prices in the near - term, indicating that the market has a positive expectation for future aluminum prices but is relatively cautious about current high spot prices [31] Spread Structure - This week, the spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 was about - 1,730 yuan/ton, compared with - 2,040 yuan/ton before the holiday [38] Market Capital Situation - **LME Aluminum**: The latest net long position of funds increased slightly, with both long and short camps increasing their positions slightly. Overall, overseas funds are still dominated by the long side [41] - **Shanghai Futures Exchange Electrolytic Aluminum**: In the past two weeks, the net long position first increased and then decreased, remaining stable overall. Since December, both long and short sides have increased their positions. The net long position of funds mainly for financial speculation has declined, but the camp differentiation is relatively obvious. The net long position of funds from mid - and downstream enterprises has increased slightly. Overall, the main funds seem to be relatively cautious about the recent price increase [44]

2025.12.8-12.12 纯碱、玻璃 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 纯碱期货 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 中线行情分析 纯碱期货处于震荡阶段。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 上周国内纯碱市场整体平稳，价格区间保持稳定。供应端开工稳定， 虽有部分装置波动但整体压力仍存；需求表现平淡，下游按需采购 为主，重碱受玻璃行业冷修预期影响维持疲软。厂家执行订单为主， 稳价意愿较强，成本及行业亏损支撑下现货价格底部有限，预计短 期延续窄幅整理格局，后续关注装置变动与下游采购节奏。纯碱期 货震荡偏弱，盘面冲高乏力，在供应回升与需求疲软共同压制下走 低，库存去化对情绪略有支撑但市场观望情绪较浓，短期高库存及 产能释放预期仍构成压力，维持低位震荡。 2 中线策略建议 3 建议观望 纯碱：开工率：中国（周） 纯碱：产量：中国（周） 品种交易策略 上周策略回顾 上周纯碱现货市场整体平稳，部分地区报价微涨。供应逐步 恢复，需求呈现分化，轻碱货源偏紧，重碱需求疲软。成本 与订单支撑下价格保持稳定。期货市场低位震荡，高库存与 下游需求疲软形成压制，成本支撑下延续窄幅波动 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: Industrial Silicon and Lithium Carbonate Futures Weekly Report (2025.12.08 - ) [2] - Report Subjects: Industrial silicon futures and lithium carbonate futures Industrial Silicon Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: Industrial silicon futures are currently in a large - range operation [8] - Trend Logic: Last week, the spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. As of December 5, the price of 421 in Xinjiang was 9,200 yuan/ton, 9,900 yuan/ton in Yunnan, and 10,000 yuan/ton in Sichuan. The AI intelligent investment consultation variety diagnosis report of Great Wall Futures showed that the daily price of industrial silicon was in a sideways phase, and the main force had an obvious bullish attitude [8] - Mid - term Strategy: It is expected that the industrial silicon 2601 contract will operate in the range of 8,500 - 10,000 yuan [9] 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: With industrial silicon in a large - range operation, the strategy was mainly to wait and see [12] - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: With industrial silicon in a large - range operation, the strategy is mainly to wait and see [12] 3. Relevant Data - SHF Cathode Copper Inventory: As of April 19, 2024, the cathode copper inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 300,045 tons, an increase of 322 tons from the previous week. Seasonally, the current inventory is at a relatively high level compared to the past five years [14] - LME Copper Inventory: As of April 19, 2024, the LME copper inventory was 122,125 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 25.73%. Seasonally, the current inventory is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [18] Lithium Carbonate Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: Lithium carbonate futures are currently in a large - range operation [33] - Trend Logic: Last week, the spot price of lithium carbonate declined. As of December 5, the market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 91,100 yuan/ton, and the market price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 89,650 yuan/ton. The AI intelligent investment consultation variety diagnosis report of Great Wall Futures showed that the daily price of lithium carbonate futures was in a sideways phase, and the main force showed a strong bearish sentiment [34] - Mid - term Strategy: It is expected that the main 2605 contract of lithium carbonate will operate in the range of 75,000 - 115,000 yuan [34] 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: For the main 2605 contract of lithium carbonate, focus on the support in the range of 86,000 - 88,000 yuan and mainly wait and see [37] - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: For the main 2605 contract of lithium carbonate, focus on the support in the range of 86,000 - 88,000 yuan and mainly wait and see [38] 3. Relevant Data - SHF Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory: As of April 19, 2024, the electrolytic aluminum inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 228,537 tons, a decrease of 3,228 tons from the previous week. Seasonally, the current inventory is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [41] - LME Aluminum Inventory: As of April 19, 2024, the LME aluminum inventory was 504,000 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 66.03%. Seasonally, the current inventory is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [43]