1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - For gold futures, the overall trend of Shanghai gold futures is in an upward channel and may be at the end of the trend. For silver futures, the overall trend of Shanghai silver futures is steadily rising and is also at the end of the trend. It is recommended to wait and see for both gold and silver futures [7][34] 3. Summary by Directory Gold Futures 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - The overall trend of Shanghai gold futures is in an upward channel and may be at the end of the trend. Last week, gold was affected by factors such as the US dollar index, US economic data, Fed policy expectations, geopolitical risks, RMB exchange rate, domestic infrastructure policies, market sentiment, capital flow, and technical aspects. The US dollar index alternately suppressed and supported the gold price. The mild US economic data, stable Fed policy expectations, and geopolitical risks made the gold price seek a direction in the fluctuations. Domestic infrastructure policies and RMB exchange rate fluctuations provided additional support. It is recommended to wait and see [7][8] 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week, it was expected that the gold main contract 2510 would oscillate, and grid trading was recommended in the 760 - 785 range. This week, it is still expected to oscillate, and grid trading is recommended in the 750 - 800 range [11][12] 3.3 Relevant Data Situation - The content presents the historical data trends of Shanghai gold market trends, COMEX gold market trends, SPDR gold ETF holdings, COMEX gold inventory, US 10 - year Treasury bond yields, US dollar index, US dollar against offshore RMB, gold - silver ratio, Shanghai gold basis, and gold internal - external price difference [19][22][24] Silver Futures 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - The overall trend of Shanghai silver futures is steadily rising and is at the end of the trend. Last week, the US - Japan trade agreement improved market risk appetite, but silver was less suppressed due to its stronger industrial attributes. Industrial demand, especially in the photovoltaic and new - energy vehicle fields, provided support. Next week, silver prices will be affected by US economic data, China - US trade negotiation progress, geopolitical risks, and domestic policy orientation. If there is no substantial progress in China - US trade negotiations, silver prices are expected to remain strong; otherwise, silver may face some downward pressure. It is recommended to wait and see [34][36] 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week, it was expected that the silver contract 2510 would run strongly, with the lower support range of 8800 - 8900 and the upper pressure range of 9450 - 9550. This week, it is still expected to run strongly, with the lower support range of 8800 - 8900 and the upper pressure range of 9200 - 9300 [38] 3.3 Relevant Data Situation - The content shows the historical data trends of Shanghai silver market trends, COMEX silver market trends, SLV silver ETF holdings, COMEX silver inventory, Shanghai silver basis, and silver internal - external price difference [44][46][48]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The soda ash futures market is in a volatile phase, with short - term stability and potential minor increases in some regions. The glass futures market is also in a volatile trend, with short - term upward potential but facing adjustment risks [6][31]. - For both soda ash and glass futures, the current recommended strategy is to wait and see [6][31]. 3. Summary by Directory Soda Ash Futures - **Mid - term Market Analysis** - The soda ash futures are in a volatile stage. Last week, the domestic soda ash market was stable with a slight upward trend. The industry's operating rate declined slightly, and downstream demand was mainly for immediate needs. Policy supports prices, but over - capacity remains, limiting price increases. The futures are expected to show high - level volatility [6]. - The recommended mid - term strategy is to wait and see [6]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - **Last Week's Strategy Review**：The soda ash futures were volatile last week. The spot market had weak supply - demand conditions, with an operating rate of 84.10%. Supply was expected to increase, and inventory accumulation indicated an oversupply situation. The expected operating range for soda ash 2509 was 1150 - 1300, and it was advisable to wait and see [9]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**：The domestic soda ash market was stable with a slight upward trend last week. The industry's operating rate decreased slightly. Policy supports prices, but over - capacity persists. The expected operating range for soda ash 2509 is 1250 - 1450, and it is recommended to wait and see [10]. - **Related Data** - Data includes China's weekly soda ash operating rate, production, light and heavy - quality inventory, basis (daily), and ammonia - soda production cost in North China [11][15][18]. Glass Futures - **Mid - term Market Analysis** - The glass market is in a volatile trend. Last week, the domestic 5mm float glass market was stable with an upward trend, showing regional price differentiation. Supply decreased slightly but remained abundant, and demand was mainly for immediate needs. The futures market first declined and then rose, with a risk of adjustment. In the short term, prices may still have upward space, and attention should be paid to inventory changes and policy implementation [31]. - The recommended mid - term strategy is to hold an empty position and wait and see [31]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - **Last Week's Strategy Review**：The spot market was stable with a slight upward trend last week, showing regional differentiation. The futures were more volatile, first rising and then falling, and were expected to maintain a weak - volatile trend. The expected operating range for glass 2509 was 1000 - 1200, and it was advisable to hold an empty position and wait and see [34]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**：The domestic 5mm float glass market was stable with an upward trend last week. Supply decreased slightly but remained abundant, and demand was mainly for immediate needs. The futures first declined and then rose, with a risk of adjustment at the weekend. The expected operating range for glass 2509 is 1200 - 1400, and it is recommended to hold an empty position and wait and see [35]. - **Related Data** - Data includes China's weekly float glass production, operating rate, production cost and gross profit using natural - gas - fueled float technology, basis (daily), and ending inventory [37][43][46].

Aggregate Information - Report Title: Industrial Silicon and Lithium Carbonate Futures Weekly Report [2] - Report Period: July 28 - August 1, 2025 [1] Group 1: Industrial Silicon Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: Industrial silicon futures are currently in a process of stabilizing and rebounding [6] - Trend Logic: Last week, the spot price of industrial silicon increased. As of July 25, the price of 421 in Xinjiang was 9,650 yuan/ton, 10,300 yuan/ton in Yunnan, and 10,000 yuan/ton in Sichuan. The AI intelligent investment consultation variety diagnosis report of Great Wall Futures shows that the daily price of industrial silicon is in a strong upward stage, and the main force shows a strong bullish sentiment [6] - Strategy Suggestion: The support level of the industrial silicon 2509 futures price is in the range of 8,300 - 8,600. It is recommended to buy a small amount on dips [7] 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: The price of industrial silicon was bottoming and oscillating. It was advisable to consider buying a small amount on dips during the correction [10] - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: During the process of the industrial silicon price stabilizing and rebounding, it is advisable to consider buying a small amount on dips during the correction [11] 3. Relevant Data - As of April 19, 2024, the cathode copper inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 300,045 tons, an increase of 322 tons from the previous week. Seasonally, the current inventory is at a relatively high level compared to the past five years [13] - As of April 19, 2024, the LME copper inventory was 122,125 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 25.73%. Seasonally, the current inventory is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [17] Group 2: Lithium Carbonate Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: Lithium carbonate futures are currently in a process of stabilizing and rebounding [30] - Trend Logic: Last week, the spot price of lithium carbonate increased. As of July 25, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,000 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 71,800 yuan/ton. Technically, the AI variety diagnosis report of Great Wall Futures shows that the daily price of lithium carbonate futures is in a strong upward stage, and the main force shows a strong bullish sentiment [31] - Strategy Suggestion: The support level of the lithium carbonate 2509 futures price is in the range of 69,000 - 72,000. It is recommended to buy a small amount on dips [31] 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: During the process of the lithium carbonate price stabilizing and rebounding, it was advisable to consider buying a small amount on dips during the correction [34] - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: During the process of the lithium carbonate price stabilizing and rebounding, it is advisable to consider buying a small amount on dips during the correction [35] 3. Relevant Data - As of April 19, 2024, the electrolytic aluminum inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 228,537 tons, a decrease of 3,228 tons from the previous week. Seasonally, the current inventory is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [38] - As of April 19, 2024, the LME aluminum inventory was 504,000 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 66.03%. Seasonally, the current inventory is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [41]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The aluminum market is expected to experience large - range oscillations, with an overall upward - biased trend in August. The short - term market is in a state of intense competition between "anti - involution" and the decline in social inventory out - flow during the off - season, and may be in a consolidation phase. The price of the SHFE Aluminum 2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 20,200 and 20,900 [5][13]. - In the medium term, due to factors such as the continuous decline in the out - flow rate of domestic aluminum ingot social inventory during the off - season, the lack of mention of alumina capacity clearance in the high - quality development plan of the aluminum industry from 2025 - 2027, and the production increase in Shanxi alumina, the supply side has no obvious constraints for the time being. However, there is a strong expectation of capacity withdrawal under the "anti - involution" background, and there is still a risk of a short squeeze with low warehouse receipts and a high virtual - to - real ratio. It is recommended to hold long positions at low levels in the medium term [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Medium - term Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: The market is in a large - range oscillation. In the off - season, the out - flow rate of domestic aluminum ingot social inventory continues to decline. The supply side has no obvious constraints for the time being, but there is a strong expectation of capacity withdrawal under the "anti - involution" background, and the risk of a short squeeze still exists [5]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions at low levels in the medium term [5]. 2. Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The SHFE Aluminum 2509 contract was expected to oscillate between 20,500 and 21,100. It was advisable to appropriately arrange long positions near the lower end of the range [7]. - **This Week's Strategy Recommendation**: The price may enter a wide - range oscillation phase. The SHFE Aluminum 2509 contract is expected to be between 20,200 and 20,900, and it is recommended to wait and see [8]. - **Hedging Recommendation for Spot Enterprises**: Consider appropriately allocating virtual futures inventory at low prices [9]. 3. Overall View Supply - related - **Bauxite Market**: In the short term, the supply of domestic bauxite is limited, and the price is expected to remain stable. The inventory of imported bauxite at ports and alumina plants is high, and the supply - demand contradiction is not obvious in the short term. The price is expected to remain stable in the third quarter. If Guinea's shipments remain low and domestic bauxite inventory continues to decline, the price may turn upward in the fourth quarter [10]. - **Alumina Market**: In July, the operating capacity of national metallurgical - grade alumina remained stable at about 88.27 million tons per year. There is a new production capacity project in Guangtou Beihai in Q3, and the operating capacity may reach a new high in the first half of the year. Attention should be paid to the rainy season in Guinea and the operating capacity of alumina under the "anti - involution" background [10]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: With the recovery of domestic electrolytic aluminum smelting profits this year, some production capacity that was cut last year has gradually resumed production. Currently, the utilization rate of domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity has exceeded 95%. Due to the production capacity ceiling, there is limited new production capacity in the future [10]. - **Import and Export**: Currently, the theoretical loss of electrolytic aluminum imports is about 1,300 yuan/ton. Since February 2025, domestic aluminum exports have been increasing. Although the growth rate has declined since April due to tariff disturbances, overall, it shows resilience [10]. Demand - related - **Aluminum Profiles**: The operating rate of domestic leading aluminum profile enterprises remained stable at 50.5% this week. The new orders for construction profiles are weak, and the overall operating rate of industrial profiles remained stable. In the off - season, the market is difficult to achieve significant growth and is expected to remain stable in the short term [12]. - **Aluminum Sheet, Strip and Foil**: The operating rate of leading aluminum foil enterprises remained stable at 69.6%. With the upcoming high - temperature holidays in August, some upstream production enterprises may make production - cut plans, and the operating rate of the aluminum foil industry will continue to remain low in the short term. The operating rate of leading aluminum sheet and strip enterprises remained stable at 63.2%, and it will maintain a low - level operation under the weak domestic and overseas demand [12]. - **Aluminum Cables**: The operating rate of leading aluminum cable enterprises decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 61.6% this week. Although it is still at a low level in the short term, there are signs of marginal improvement, and the operating rate is expected to enter a recovery phase in August [12]. - **Alloys**: The operating rate of the primary aluminum alloy industry remained stable at 54.0%. The industry is in a game between "aluminum water allocation - led" and "aluminum price suppressing demand". Although the export volume data is better than expected recently, the export situation may still be deeply adjusted, and substantial recovery depends on clear policies and alleviation of cost pressure. The operating rate of leading secondary aluminum enterprises decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 53.1% this week. Affected by factors such as declining demand, difficult raw material replenishment, and profit inversion, the operating rate is expected to continue to be under pressure in the short term [12]. Inventory - related - **Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory**: The latest inventory of aluminum ingots is 512,000 tons, an increase of about 4% from last week and a decrease of about 35% from the same period last year. The inventory of aluminum rods is 137,800 tons, a decrease of about 10% from last week and an increase of about 5% from the same period last year. The LME electrolytic aluminum inventory has been increasing slightly since July and is still at a low level since 1990 [12]. Profit - related - **Alumina Profit**: Currently, the average cash cost of the Chinese alumina industry is about 2,600 yuan/ton, and the profit is about 600 yuan/ton, compared with about 550 yuan/ton last week [13]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Profit**: Currently, the average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 17,600 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is about 3,200 yuan/ton, the same as last week, and the profit is at a relatively high level [13]. Market Expectation and Outlook - **Market Expectation**: There is a strong expectation of capacity withdrawal of alumina under the "anti - involution" background, and there is still a risk of a short squeeze. However, considering that the high - quality development plan of the aluminum industry from 2025 - 2027 does not mention alumina capacity clearance and the production increase in Shanxi alumina, the supply side has no obvious constraints for the time being. Attention should be paid to the supply - side clearance policy, and beware of the downward trend if the expectation is not met. In the short term, the long - short game is intense [13]. - **Personal View**: The new production capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum in the third quarter is the lowest in the whole year. August is the window period for the conversion between the off - season and the peak season. With the easing of the China - US tariff war, exports remain resilient. With the implementation of domestic "anti - involution" and stable - growth policies, the supply - demand situation in August can be viewed optimistically. In the next week, due to the continuous decline in the out - flow rate of aluminum ingots during the off - season, the "anti - involution" expectation has cooled down, and the price may enter a wide - range oscillation phase. The SHFE Aluminum 2509 contract is expected to be between 20,200 and 20,900 [13]. - **Key Concerns**: Whether the inventory of LME and domestic electrolytic aluminum accumulates more than expected and the implementation of the "anti - involution" policy [13]. - **Direction**: The market is in a large - range oscillation and is expected to strengthen slightly in August [13]. 4. Important Industry Link Price Changes - The downstream purchasing enthusiasm for bauxite is average. In August, the impact of the rainy season in Guinea is expected to be reflected in the domestic bauxite supply, and imports are expected to decline. The price of imported bauxite is expected to oscillate between 70 - 75 US dollars per dry ton in the short term. The coal price continued to rise steadily this week, and there is an expectation of marginal tightening of domestic supply before September. The alumina price rose first and then fell, and there is no obvious sign of a trend reversal [14]. - The price of electrolytic aluminum rose first and then fell this week, and was blocked again at the 21,000 level. The short - term market may be in a consolidation phase [15]. 5. Important Industry Link Inventory Changes - The port inventory of imported bauxite continued to increase slightly. The inventory of alumina and electrolytic aluminum increased, while the inventory of aluminum rods decreased. The LME aluminum inventory continued to increase, mainly due to weak overseas demand and the new position - limit rule of LME's near - month contracts [17][19]. 6. Supply - Demand Situation - **Profit Situation**: This week, the average cash cost of the domestic alumina industry is about 2,600 yuan/ton, and the profit is about 600 yuan/ton. The theoretical loss of alumina imports is about 100 yuan/ton. The production cost of electrolytic aluminum is about 17,600 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is about 3,200 yuan/ton. The theoretical loss of electrolytic aluminum imports is about 1,700 yuan/ton [21]. - **Downstream Processing Enterprises**: The operating rate of domestic leading aluminum downstream processing enterprises decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 58.7% this week, a decrease of 3.5 percentage points compared with the same period last year. It is expected that the operating rate will continue to decline slightly next week [25][26]. 7. Futures - Spot Structure - The overall price structure of SHFE aluminum is still in a relatively strong pattern, but the strength has weakened compared with last month [30]. 8. Spread Structure - The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 this week is about - 1,430 yuan/ton, compared with - 1,330 yuan/ton last week. The current spread between primary aluminum and alloy is at a relatively high level in recent years, which may drag down the price of electrolytic aluminum [37][38]. 9. Market Capital Situation - **LME Aluminum**: The net long position has been rising slightly in the past 11 weeks. Since May, the short side has been reducing positions overall, and the long side has been increasing positions slightly since early June. The market is expected to oscillate strongly in the near future [40]. - **SHFE Electrolytic Aluminum**: The net long position of the main contract has decreased slightly. Both the long and short sides have increased positions slightly in the past week. The net long position of funds mainly for financial speculation first increased and then decreased, generally remaining at the same level as last week. The net short position of funds mainly from mid - downstream enterprises has decreased slightly. The market is expected to oscillate at a high level next week [43].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For rebar futures, based on the comprehensive analysis of the Great Wall Futures AI intelligent big - data quantitative strategy model, the main contract of rebar futures has entered the fourth week of the red energy ladder area. The daily - level price of rebar futures is in an upward channel, and steel spot enterprises can consider an 80% long - hedging plan [7]. - For iron ore futures, according to the Great Wall Futures AI intelligent data model, the main contract of iron ore futures has entered the third week of the medium - term red energy stage area, and spot enterprises can consider a step - by - step 50% long - hedging strategy [33]. 3. Summary by Directory Rebar Futures - **Mid - term Market Analysis** - The main contract of rebar futures has entered the fourth week of the red energy ladder area. The weekly output of rebar is 2.09 million tons, the apparent consumption is 2.06 million tons, the inventory of major steel mills is 1.73 million tons, and the social inventory is 5.66 million tons. The daily - level price of rebar futures is in an upward channel. Steel spot enterprises can consider an 80% long - hedging plan [7]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The main contract of rebar futures entered the third week of the red energy ladder area [10]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The main contract of rebar futures is in the fourth week of the red energy ladder area in the medium - term trend. Steel spot enterprises can consider a step - by - step 80% long - hedging strategy [11][12]. - **Related Data Situation** - **Variety Diagnosis Situation**: The main funds of rebar futures are strongly bearish, with a multi - short flow of - 81.0. The capital energy is 17.5 FP, remaining basically stable. The multi - short divergence is 97.3, indicating a high risk of market reversal [25]. Iron Ore Futures - **Mid - term Market Analysis** - The main contract of iron ore futures has entered the third week of the medium - term red energy stage area. The global shipment volume of iron ore last week was 29.87 million tons, the arrival volume at 45 major ports in China was 26.62 million tons, the inventory of steel enterprises was 88.22 million tons, and the inventory at major domestic ports was 137.85 million tons. Spot enterprises can consider a step - by - step 50% long - hedging strategy [33]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The main contract of iron ore futures entered the second week of the medium - term red energy stage area [36]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: Spot enterprises can consider a step - by - step 50% long - hedging strategy [36]. - **Related Data Situation** - Specific variety diagnosis and selected indicator data are not provided in the text.

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Gold, Silver Futures Weekly Report [2] - Report Period: July 21 - July 25, 2025 [1] Group 2: Gold Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is in an upward channel, possibly at the end of the trend [7] - Trend Logic: Last week, short - term safe - haven sentiment pushed up prices, while the rebound of the US dollar index and the decline of COMEX gold futures suppressed prices. The increasing market expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut provided support. Volume and open interest changes reflected the game between bulls and bears. In the short term, gold prices are suppressed by the rebound of the US dollar index and strong US economic data, but geopolitical risks and safe - haven demand provide support. In the medium term, gold will maintain a volatile pattern, and the Fed's policy and the US dollar trend need to be closely monitored [7] - Mid - term Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [8] 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: The gold main contract 2510 was expected to run in a volatile manner, and grid trading was recommended in the range of 760 - 782 [11] - This Week's Strategy Recommendation: The gold main contract 2510 is expected to run in a volatile manner, and grid trading is recommended in the range of 760 - 785 [12] 3. Relevant Data - The report provides data on Shanghai Gold futures and COMEX gold futures price trends, SPDR gold ETF holdings, COMEX gold inventory, US 10 - year Treasury yields, US dollar index, US dollar against offshore RMB, gold - silver ratio, Shanghai Gold basis, and gold internal - external price difference [19][21][23] Group 3: Silver Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: The overall trend of Shanghai Silver futures is steadily rising, currently at the end of the trend [32] - Trend Logic: The silver main contract 2510 was volatile and strong last week. The main reason was that the Fed's dovish statement strengthened the expectation of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in July, Trump's intervention intensified the easing sentiment, and the strengthening of the US dollar was partially suppressed but dominated. The slight decline in warehouse receipts indicated low delivery pressure. In the next week, the core driver is the Fed's interest - rate meeting (expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points. If it exceeds expectations or PCE data shows inflation cooling, it will boost silver prices). Geopolitical risks and the decline of the US dollar may support safe - haven demand. Silver is more sensitive to interest rates than gold [32] - Mid - term Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [33] 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: The silver contract 2510 was expected to run strongly, with the lower support range at 8800 - 8900 and the upper pressure range at 9200 - 9300 [35] - This Week's Strategy Recommendation: The silver contract 2510 is expected to run strongly, with the lower support range at 8800 - 8900 [35] 3. Relevant Data - The report provides data on Shanghai Silver futures and COMEX silver futures price trends, SLV silver ETF holdings, COMEX silver inventory, Shanghai Silver basis, and silver internal - external price difference [42][44][46]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "Bean Meal, Soybean Oil Futures Variety Weekly Report" [2] - Report Period: July 21 - July 25, 2025 [1] Group 2: Bean Meal Futures 2.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: The main bean meal contract is in a wide - range oscillation phase [7] - Trend Logic: In the 28th week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.2954 million tons, with an operating rate of 64.52%. Bean meal inventory was 886,200 tons, an increase of 63,800 tons or 7.76% from the previous week. High domestic soybean arrivals and hot weather keep oil mills at high operating rates. Downstream feed enterprises adopt a strategy of appropriate low - price purchases, leading to continuous inventory accumulation. However, favorable US soybean export policies and high Brazilian soybean premiums drive up import costs. There is also significant uncertainty in Sino - US trade relations. Overall, bean meal futures are expected to continue wide - range oscillations [7] - Mid - term Strategy: Pay attention to the support level in the range of 2920 - 2950 [7] 2.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: The overall trend of bean meal futures prices was in a sideways phase, with strongly bearish funds. M2509 was expected to continue oscillating, with an expected operating range of 2880 - 3080 [10] - This Week's Strategy Recommendation: The overall trend of bean meal futures prices is in an upward channel, with strongly bullish funds. M2509 is expected to be oscillating and bullish in the short term, with an expected operating range of 2920 - 3150 [11] 2.3 Variety Diagnosis - Bull - Bear Flow: The main force is strongly bullish, with an indicator of 94.7 [15] - Fund Energy: Funds are basically stable, with an indicator of - 16.7 [15] - Bull - Bear Disagreement: There is a high risk of a market reversal, with an indicator of 99.5 [15] 2.4 Related Data - Data includes bean meal weekly output, weekly inventory, apparent consumption, weekly inventory days, basis, and oil - meal ratio. Data sources are Wind, Mysteel, and the Great Wall Futures Trading Consultation Department [20][22][25] Group 3: Soybean Oil Futures 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: The main soybean oil contract is in a wide - range oscillation phase [31] - Trend Logic: According to Mysteel data, in the 28th week, the actual soybean oil output of 125 oil mills was 436,100 tons, a decrease of 70,000 tons from the previous week. The commercial inventory of soybean oil in key national regions was 1.0494 million tons, an increase of 297,000 tons from the previous week. High soybean arrivals and high crushing volumes, combined with the off - season of terminal consumption, result in a supply - strong and demand - weak pattern in the soybean oil market. However, competing oils such as palm oil are relatively strong. The expected consumption increase from biodiesel policies and the strengthening of Brazilian soybean premiums provide cost - side support. Overall, soybean oil futures prices are in a wide - range oscillation and consolidation phase [31] - Mid - term Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [31] 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: The overall trend of soybean oil futures prices was in a sideways phase, with relatively bearish funds. Y2509 was expected to maintain wide - range oscillation and consolidation in the short term, with an expected operating range of 7800 - 8100 [34] - This Week's Strategy Recommendation: The overall trend of soybean oil futures prices is in an upward channel, with relatively bullish funds. Y2509 is expected to maintain a bullish operation in the short term, with an expected operating range of 7950 - 8300 [34] 3.3 Related Data - Data includes soybean oil weekly output, weekly inventory, basis, trading volume, soybean weekly arrivals, weekly inventory, weekly crushing volume, weekly operating rate, weekly port inventory, and Brazilian premium. Data sources are Wind, Mysteel, and the Great Wall Futures Trading Consultation Department [42][44][48]

2025.07.21-07.25 工业硅、碳酸锂 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 工业硅期货 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 中线行情分析 工业硅期货目前处于震荡筑底过程中。 中线趋势判断 1 n 上周策略回顾 工业硅价格筑底震荡运行，可考虑回调逢低少量做多。 n 本周策略建议 工业硅价格筑底震荡运行，可考虑回调逢低少量做多。 趋势判断逻辑 2 上周工业硅现货价格小幅上涨，截至7月18日新疆地区421#价格8900元/吨， 云南地区421#价格9900元/吨，四川地区421#价格9450元/吨。长城期货AI 智能投询品种诊断报告显示工业硅价格日线处在上升通道中。资金方面， 主力显示出较强的偏空情绪。 工业硅2509期货价格支撑位在7800—8200区间，建议逢低少量做多。 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 相关数据情况 截止至2024年04月19日，上海期货交易所阴极铜库存为300,045吨，较上一周增加322吨。从季节性角度分析，当前库存较近五年相比维持在较高水平。 SHF阴极铜库存走势 SHF阴极铜库存季节性分析 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mystee ...

2025.07.21-07.25 纯碱、玻璃 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 纯碱期货 趋势判断逻辑 上周纯碱期货市场整体呈现震荡走势。从现货市场来看，国内纯碱 行业供需格局偏弱，整体开工率仍维持在84.10%左右，行业产能利 用率较高，预计未来市场供应增加。库存方面持续累积，反映出当 前市场供过于求的压力仍在。需求端，光伏玻璃行业"反内卷"政 策持续推进，日熔量下降，对纯碱需求形成拖累；而轻碱需求虽略 有改善，但整体交投仍以刚需为主，市场活跃度不高。综合来看， 纯碱行业面临高库存、弱需求的挑战。预计未来保持稳中震荡运行。 2 中线策略建议 3 建议观望 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 中线行情分析 纯碱期货处于震荡阶段。 中线趋势判断 1 上周纯碱期货震荡。现货市场供需偏弱，开工率 84.10%，供 应预计增加，库存累积显供过于求。需求端，光伏玻璃日熔 量降拖累需求，轻碱需求略改善但交投以刚需为主。行业面 临高库存、弱需求，预计稳中震荡。预期纯碱2509运行区间 1150-1300。可考虑观望。 相关数据情况 纯碱：开工率：中国（周） 纯碱：产量：中国 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The aluminum market is expected to experience large - range oscillations, with an overall upward - biased trend in August. The new production capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum in the third quarter is at the lowest level of the year. August is the window period for the transition between the off - season and peak season of downstream industries. With the temporary easing of the China - US tariff war, exports remain resilient. Additionally, with the implementation of domestic anti - involution and stable - growth policies, the supply and demand situation in August can be viewed optimistically [5][12]. - The aluminum price is expected to maintain an upward - biased oscillation, with a fluctuation range of 20,500 - 21,000 yuan/ton. The Shanghai Aluminum 2509 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 20,500 - 21,100 [12][8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Mid - term Market Analysis - Trend judgment: Large - range oscillations, with an overall upward - biased trend in August. The new production capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum in the third quarter is at the lowest level of the year. August is the window period for the transition between the off - season and peak season of downstream industries. With the temporary easing of the China - US tariff war, exports remain resilient. Additionally, with the implementation of domestic anti - involution and stable - growth policies, the supply and demand situation in August can be viewed optimistically [5]. - Strategy suggestion: Hold long positions at low levels in the mid - term [5]. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The range of Shanghai Aluminum 2509 in the coming week was expected to be 20,200 - 20,900. Appropriate long positions could be established near the lower end of the range [7]. - This week's strategy suggestion: The Shanghai Aluminum 2509 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 20,500 - 21,100. Appropriate long positions could be established near the lower end of the range [8]. - Hedging suggestion for spot enterprises: Consider allocating an appropriate amount of virtual futures inventory at low prices [9]. Overall Viewpoint Bauxite Market - Starting from August, the import of bauxite from Guinea to China is expected to decrease. Overall, the import volume of domestic bauxite in the second half of the year is expected to decline compared with the first half, and there is a risk that the monthly balance of bauxite may turn into a deficit. However, considering that some enterprises have stocked up in advance to cope with the rainy season, the supply - demand contradiction of bauxite is not expected to be significant in the short term. The price of bauxite in the third quarter is expected to remain stable. If the shipment volume remains low and domestic bauxite inventory continues to decline, the contradiction will gradually become prominent, and the bauxite price may turn upward in the fourth quarter [10]. Alumina Market - As of July 18, the built - in production capacity of domestic metallurgical - grade alumina was about 111.75 million tons, the operating capacity was about 92.2 million tons, and the operating rate was about 83.61%, up from about 83.28% last week, showing an overall upward trend since the end of May. There is a new production capacity project in Guangtou Beihai in Q3, and the operating capacity of alumina still has the potential to refresh the historical peak in the first half of the year. However, there are many factors disturbing the ore supply from Guinea in the second half of the year [10]. Production of Electrolytic Aluminum - According to Aladdin, the current operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 44.2 million tons, and the new production capacity of electrolytic aluminum in Q3 is at the lowest level of the year [10]. Import and Export - The theoretical import loss of electrolytic aluminum is currently about 1,200 yuan/ton, down from about 1,350 yuan/ton last week. Since February 2025, China's aluminum exports have been increasing. Although the growth rate has declined due to tariff disturbances since April, overall, exports remain resilient [10]. Demand - Aluminum profiles: The weekly operating rate of the domestic aluminum profile industry increased by 1 percentage point to 50.5% this week, mainly due to the increase in orders for automotive profiles from some enterprises, while the operating rate of building profiles remained weak [11]. - Aluminum plates, strips, and foils: The operating rate of leading aluminum plate and strip enterprises remained stable at 63.2%. In mid - to late July, the probability of an increase in the operating rate driven by improved demand is extremely low. During the transition period between the off - season and peak season in August, if the aluminum price remains relatively stable, downstream customers' stocking actions for the peak season may bring about a wave of demand recovery. The operating rate of leading aluminum foil enterprises remained stable at 69.6%. The overall demand in the aluminum foil market continued to be weak this week. As it is the traditional consumption off - season from July to August, there is no hope for a recovery in terminal demand, and the operating rate of the aluminum foil industry is expected to continue to decline in the short term [11]. - Aluminum cables: The operating rate of leading aluminum cable enterprises increased by 0.4 percentage points to 62% this week, showing signs of bottoming out and recovery. In the final year of the "14th Five - Year Plan", the supervision of power grid construction is still urgent. Coupled with the relatively abundant backlog of orders from enterprises, there is still a window period for concentrated deliveries in the second half of the year, which will drive the operating rate of aluminum cables and aluminum consumption after August [11]. - Alloys: The operating rate of the primary aluminum alloy industry remained stable at 54.0%. The performance in mid - July was better than the previous weak and stable situation, maintaining a game pattern of "dominated by molten aluminum allocation and demand suppressed by aluminum prices". The exports of primary aluminum alloys and aluminum wheels may enter a deep adjustment period in the second half of the year, and a substantial recovery will depend on clear policies and the alleviation of cost pressures. The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum enterprises decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 53.4% this week, mainly due to the shortage of raw materials and the reduction in demand. Constrained by both raw materials and orders, the operating rate of the industry is expected to continue to be under pressure in the short term [11]. Inventory - Electrolytic aluminum: The latest social inventory of aluminum ingots is 490,000 tons, an increase of about 5% compared with the week before last and a decrease of about 39% compared with the same period last year. Recently, the purchasing and stocking sentiment of downstream customers has improved, and the demand in the aluminum cable sector still has some support during the off - season. The sustainability of the inventory build - up of aluminum ingots still needs to be observed, but the situation of inventory remaining at a historical low level in the same period is difficult to change for the time being. The inventory of aluminum rods is 153,200 tons, a decrease of about 2% compared with last week and an increase of about 10% compared with the same period last year. Although the production cuts by aluminum rod manufacturers have reduced the arrival pressure on the supply side, the current replenishment of rigid demand is mainly a short - term boost, and the off - season theme of downstream industries has not changed. Therefore, from a long - term perspective, the inventory of aluminum rods will still maintain an upward trend, and the general trend has not changed significantly. The LME electrolytic aluminum inventory has been increasing slightly since July, after a continuous slight decline since May 2024, but it is still at a low level since 1990 [11]. Alumina Profit - The average cash cost of the Chinese alumina industry is currently about 2,600 yuan/ton, and the profit is about 550 yuan/ton, the same as last week [12]. Electrolytic Aluminum Profit - The average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is currently about 17,500 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is about 3,200 yuan/ton, down from 3,300 yuan/ton last week. The profit is at a relatively high level [12]. Market Expectation - Policy expectations continue to ferment, and social inventory is at a low level in recent years; overseas tariff negotiations have been postponed, and export orders have recovered in the short term. However, the marginal demand during the off - season is weakening, and the operating rate of aluminum processing enterprises is under pressure; the expectation of the Fed's interest rate decision is disturbing, and the recent rebound of the US dollar index has suppressed metal prices. The aluminum price is expected to maintain an upward - biased oscillation, with a fluctuation range of 20,500 - 21,000 yuan/ton [12]. Personal View - The new production capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum in the third quarter is at the lowest level of the year. August is the window period for the transition between the off - season and peak season of downstream industries. With the temporary easing of the China - US tariff war, exports remain resilient. Additionally, with the implementation of domestic anti - involution and stable - growth policies, the supply and demand situation in August can be viewed optimistically. Looking forward to the coming week, the Shanghai Aluminum 2509 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 20,500 - 21,100 [12]. Key Concerns - Whether the inventory of LME and domestic electrolytic aluminum will increase more than expected. - Whether the import window for aluminum ingots will open [12]. Important Industrial Link Price Changes - The prices of various aluminum - related products and raw materials have shown different degrees of change. For example, the price of bauxite from Guinea remained stable at 73 US dollars/dry ton, while the price of动力煤 (Q5500平仓价) at Jingtang Port increased by 1.73% week - on - week [13]. Important Industrial Link Inventory Changes - The inventory of various aluminum - related products and raw materials has also changed. For example, the port inventory of bauxite increased slightly this week, and the LME aluminum inventory increased by 7.59% week - on - week [14]. Supply - Demand Situation - The operating rate of the domestic aluminum processing industry increased by 0.2 percentage points to 58.8% this week, driven by the slight increase in the weekly operating rates of aluminum profiles and aluminum cables. Overall, the weekly operating rate of downstream aluminum processing is expected to continue to be under pressure next week [22][23]. Futures - Spot Structure - The current price structure of Shanghai Aluminum is still in a relatively strong pattern. The adjustment of Shanghai Aluminum at the beginning of last week was mainly concentrated in the near - end, reflecting the market's cautious attitude towards high prices during the off - season. However, the attitude of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology towards the high - quality development of the copper and aluminum industries near the weekend may further open the prelude to Supply - side 2.0, and it should be treated as a relatively strong situation [27]. Spread Structure - The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 is currently about - 1,330 yuan/ton, down from - 1,260 yuan/ton last week. The current spread between primary aluminum and alloys is at a relatively high level in recent years, which may have a drag on the electrolytic aluminum price [33][34]. Market Capital Situation - LME aluminum: The net long position has been increasing slightly in the past 10 weeks. Since May, the short - selling camp has been reducing positions overall, and the long - buying camp has been increasing positions slightly since early June. The market is expected to be dominated by a relatively strong oscillation recently [35]. - SHFE electrolytic aluminum: The net long position of the main contract has remained stable this week. Since early July, both the long - buying and short - selling camps have slightly reduced positions to cope. The net long position of funds mainly for financial speculation has continued to decrease slightly. The net short position of funds from mid - and downstream enterprises has increased slightly. From the performance of the main funds, the market is expected to oscillate at a high level next week [38].